{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.66,"endTime":1.59,"body":"- So, ladies and gentlemen,"},{"startTime":1.59,"endTime":4.86,"body":"the international situation is I think"},{"startTime":4.86,"endTime":8.31,"body":"more dangerous and more unpredictable"},{"startTime":8.31,"endTime":12.12,"body":"than at any time in my"},{"startTime":8.31,"endTime":12.12,"body":"40 years as a diplomat."},{"startTime":12.12,"endTime":15.24,"body":"And actually, I think"},{"startTime":12.12,"endTime":15.24,"body":"more than at any time"},{"startTime":15.24,"endTime":17.61,"body":"since the end of the Second World War."},{"startTime":17.61,"endTime":20.58,"body":"And my aim in this lecture"},{"startTime":17.61,"endTime":20.58,"body":"is to, first of all,"},{"startTime":20.58,"endTime":22.92,"body":"give you some diagnosis"},{"startTime":22.92,"endTime":25.41,"body":"of the trends in the world"},{"startTime":25.41,"endTime":28.59,"body":"and the turbulent global"},{"startTime":25.41,"endTime":28.59,"body":"landscape that we see,"},{"startTime":28.59,"endTime":30.42,"body":"but also to end with some thoughts"},{"startTime":30.42,"endTime":33.63,"body":"about what Britain's defense"},{"startTime":30.42,"endTime":33.63,"body":"and security priorities"},{"startTime":33.63,"endTime":37.38,"body":"should be in this unpredictable world."},{"startTime":37.38,"endTime":38.79,"body":"And because public debate"},{"startTime":38.79,"endTime":41.04,"body":"about these issues is so important,"},{"startTime":41.04,"endTime":44.25,"body":"including having young"},{"startTime":41.04,"endTime":44.25,"body":"people's voices in the debate,"},{"startTime":44.25,"endTime":48.36,"body":"I hope that there will be"},{"startTime":44.25,"endTime":48.36,"body":"plenty of challenging questions"},{"startTime":48.36,"endTime":50.433,"body":"in the time remaining at the end."},{"startTime":52.23,"endTime":54.06,"body":"Analysis is made more difficult"},{"startTime":54.06,"endTime":56.88,"body":"by the fact that we are"},{"startTime":54.06,"endTime":56.88,"body":"seeing a combination"},{"startTime":56.88,"endTime":61.71,"body":"of some very significant long-term trends"},{"startTime":61.71,"endTime":66.71,"body":"and some very short-term"},{"startTime":61.71,"endTime":66.71,"body":"disruptive upheavals as well."},{"startTime":67.2,"endTime":69.66,"body":"I'll start with the long-term trends."},{"startTime":69.66,"endTime":71.64,"body":"They are familiar to you I'm sure,"},{"startTime":71.64,"endTime":75.303,"body":"but worth just sketching in quickly."},{"startTime":76.86,"endTime":79.11,"body":"The international rules-based system,"},{"startTime":79.11,"endTime":82.32,"body":"which is set out in"},{"startTime":79.11,"endTime":82.32,"body":"the UN Charter of 1945,"},{"startTime":82.32,"endTime":84.87,"body":"is under enormous strain now."},{"startTime":84.87,"endTime":85.703,"body":"Why is that?"},{"startTime":85.703,"endTime":88.65,"body":"Partly because the Americans"},{"startTime":88.65,"endTime":91.29,"body":"and their allies, including Britain,"},{"startTime":91.29,"endTime":95.25,"body":"which were those who"},{"startTime":91.29,"endTime":95.25,"body":"underpinned and underwrote"},{"startTime":95.25,"endTime":97.14,"body":"the international system,"},{"startTime":97.14,"endTime":99.72,"body":"are in retreat from the leadership role"},{"startTime":99.72,"endTime":101.94,"body":"they played over decades."},{"startTime":101.94,"endTime":104.13,"body":"I would say that retreat began"},{"startTime":104.13,"endTime":109.13,"body":"with the disastrous"},{"startTime":104.13,"endTime":109.13,"body":"intervention in Iraq in 2003,"},{"startTime":109.77,"endTime":113.61,"body":"together with that long"},{"startTime":109.77,"endTime":113.61,"body":"and ultimately unsuccessful"},{"startTime":113.61,"endTime":116.07,"body":"military campaign in Afghanistan."},{"startTime":116.07,"endTime":119.31,"body":"I think that undermined public confidence"},{"startTime":119.31,"endTime":120.96,"body":"in the competence of those making"},{"startTime":120.96,"endTime":123.78,"body":"our defense and foreign policy."},{"startTime":123.78,"endTime":126.28,"body":"It also damaged our authority"},{"startTime":127.391,"endTime":129.15,"body":"in the eyes of many countries"},{"startTime":129.15,"endTime":131.67,"body":"to uphold the international rules"},{"startTime":131.67,"endTime":134.583,"body":"that they felt that we'd broken in Iraq."},{"startTime":136.05,"endTime":138.78,"body":"Then came the 2008 financial crash,"},{"startTime":138.78,"endTime":143.25,"body":"which again tarnished the"},{"startTime":138.78,"endTime":143.25,"body":"brand of liberal democracy"},{"startTime":143.25,"endTime":146.37,"body":"and free trade in the world."},{"startTime":146.37,"endTime":150.18,"body":"And again it led publics to believe"},{"startTime":150.18,"endTime":155.18,"body":"that the elites were not handling"},{"startTime":150.18,"endTime":155.18,"body":"the outcome of that crisis"},{"startTime":155.79,"endTime":157.11,"body":"in a way that was equal."},{"startTime":157.11,"endTime":160.44,"body":"In other words, that the"},{"startTime":157.11,"endTime":160.44,"body":"burden fell on the poorer,"},{"startTime":160.44,"endTime":163.227,"body":"on the less well off from"},{"startTime":160.44,"endTime":163.227,"body":"that financial crisis."},{"startTime":163.227,"endTime":166.65,"body":"And I think you can trace"},{"startTime":163.227,"endTime":166.65,"body":"the current populism"},{"startTime":166.65,"endTime":168.75,"body":"in the politics in the US, in the UK,"},{"startTime":168.75,"endTime":170.22,"body":"and some other countries"},{"startTime":170.22,"endTime":173.07,"body":"to some combination of those events,"},{"startTime":173.07,"endTime":177.783,"body":"a real loss of confidence in"},{"startTime":173.07,"endTime":177.783,"body":"the competence of our elites."},{"startTime":180.21,"endTime":183.27,"body":"Chinese and Russian leaders"},{"startTime":180.21,"endTime":183.27,"body":"have been quick to move into"},{"startTime":183.27,"endTime":186.963,"body":"the vacuum that that has left"},{"startTime":183.27,"endTime":186.963,"body":"in international affairs."},{"startTime":188.16,"endTime":192.15,"body":"For three decades after"},{"startTime":188.16,"endTime":192.15,"body":"Deng Xiaoping in China,"},{"startTime":192.15,"endTime":195.75,"body":"Chinese presidents were"},{"startTime":192.15,"endTime":195.75,"body":"prepared to work with the West"},{"startTime":195.75,"endTime":200.73,"body":"to help grow the Chinese economy"},{"startTime":200.73,"endTime":202.23,"body":"because they believed"},{"startTime":200.73,"endTime":202.23,"body":"that that was the way"},{"startTime":202.23,"endTime":203.82,"body":"to strengthen China"},{"startTime":203.82,"endTime":206.79,"body":"by economic cooperation and integration"},{"startTime":206.79,"endTime":208.77,"body":"into the Western system."},{"startTime":208.77,"endTime":212.04,"body":"By the time Xi Jinping"},{"startTime":208.77,"endTime":212.04,"body":"arrived as president in 2011,"},{"startTime":212.04,"endTime":217.04,"body":"China had grown into a very"},{"startTime":212.04,"endTime":217.04,"body":"powerful economic superpower,"},{"startTime":217.92,"endTime":221.13,"body":"and emboldened by that he"},{"startTime":217.92,"endTime":221.13,"body":"tore up the previous policy"},{"startTime":221.13,"endTime":223.47,"body":"of cautious cooperation with the West."},{"startTime":223.47,"endTime":225.54,"body":"And we can now see very clearly"},{"startTime":225.54,"endTime":228.3,"body":"that China is flexing its muscles"},{"startTime":228.3,"endTime":232.44,"body":"in pursuing political and"},{"startTime":228.3,"endTime":232.44,"body":"military dominance in Asia"},{"startTime":232.44,"endTime":234.51,"body":"in competition with the US"},{"startTime":234.51,"endTime":238.53,"body":"and in trying to control the"},{"startTime":234.51,"endTime":238.53,"body":"next generation technology"},{"startTime":238.53,"endTime":239.763,"body":"in their own interests."},{"startTime":241.71,"endTime":243.91,"body":"Russia under President"},{"startTime":241.71,"endTime":243.91,"body":"Putin is a disruptor."},{"startTime":245.46,"endTime":248.7,"body":"It's a power that is"},{"startTime":245.46,"endTime":248.7,"body":"declining economically"},{"startTime":248.7,"endTime":251.67,"body":"and is pursuing an"},{"startTime":248.7,"endTime":251.67,"body":"aggressive foreign policy"},{"startTime":251.67,"endTime":253.173,"body":"partly to compensate for that."},{"startTime":254.46,"endTime":258.15,"body":"Looking back, the West was"},{"startTime":254.46,"endTime":258.15,"body":"too mild in its reaction"},{"startTime":258.15,"endTime":262.47,"body":"to Putin's partial invasion"},{"startTime":258.15,"endTime":262.47,"body":"of Georgia in 2008,"},{"startTime":262.47,"endTime":267.09,"body":"his invasion of Crimea in"},{"startTime":262.47,"endTime":267.09,"body":"Eastern Ukraine in 2014,"},{"startTime":267.09,"endTime":269.82,"body":"and now he's made an even"},{"startTime":267.09,"endTime":269.82,"body":"more desperate gamble."},{"startTime":269.82,"endTime":272.253,"body":"I'll come back to that war in Ukraine."},{"startTime":273.75,"endTime":277.953,"body":"So we're dealing not only"},{"startTime":273.75,"endTime":277.953,"body":"with shifting tectonic plates,"},{"startTime":279.39,"endTime":281.88,"body":"shifted economic power towards Asia,"},{"startTime":281.88,"endTime":285.72,"body":"emergence of authoritarian"},{"startTime":281.88,"endTime":285.72,"body":"leaders in many countries"},{"startTime":285.72,"endTime":287.73,"body":"who reject any notion"},{"startTime":287.73,"endTime":292.73,"body":"that there is a universally"},{"startTime":287.73,"endTime":292.73,"body":"binding set of rules and values"},{"startTime":292.8,"endTime":295.77,"body":"such as human rights and the rule of law."},{"startTime":295.77,"endTime":298.5,"body":"If you think of President"},{"startTime":295.77,"endTime":298.5,"body":"Erdogan in Turkey,"},{"startTime":298.5,"endTime":301.74,"body":"President Bolsonaro in Brazil,"},{"startTime":301.74,"endTime":306.09,"body":"and recently retired President"},{"startTime":301.74,"endTime":306.09,"body":"Duterte in Philippines,"},{"startTime":306.09,"endTime":308.49,"body":"they're all approaching the idea"},{"startTime":308.49,"endTime":310.383,"body":"of an international order like that."},{"startTime":314.31,"endTime":318.54,"body":"We're also seeing a fracturing"},{"startTime":314.31,"endTime":318.54,"body":"of the global trading system,"},{"startTime":318.54,"endTime":320.76,"body":"the prospect of something"},{"startTime":318.54,"endTime":320.76,"body":"similar happening"},{"startTime":320.76,"endTime":322.38,"body":"in the world's financial system."},{"startTime":322.38,"endTime":325.29,"body":"We're seeing the emergence"},{"startTime":322.38,"endTime":325.29,"body":"of two internets,"},{"startTime":325.29,"endTime":329.94,"body":"an internet of control and"},{"startTime":325.29,"endTime":329.94,"body":"state supervision in China"},{"startTime":329.94,"endTime":332.4,"body":"and its countries dependent on it,"},{"startTime":332.4,"endTime":334.23,"body":"and the internet dominated"},{"startTime":334.23,"endTime":336.993,"body":"by the American capitalist giants."},{"startTime":338.82,"endTime":343.26,"body":"We're waking up to the fact"},{"startTime":338.82,"endTime":343.26,"body":"that the model offered by China"},{"startTime":343.26,"endTime":344.91,"body":"is quite attractive"},{"startTime":344.91,"endTime":347.73,"body":"to a large number of"},{"startTime":344.91,"endTime":347.73,"body":"rulers around the world."},{"startTime":347.73,"endTime":351.42,"body":"It's a model that says"},{"startTime":347.73,"endTime":351.42,"body":"you don't have to have"},{"startTime":351.42,"endTime":354.54,"body":"democracy and freedom of expression"},{"startTime":354.54,"endTime":357.09,"body":"in order to have economic prosperity."},{"startTime":357.09,"endTime":358.83,"body":"They're trying to show that"},{"startTime":357.09,"endTime":358.83,"body":"they've broken that link"},{"startTime":358.83,"endTime":360.9,"body":"and quite a lot of people around the world"},{"startTime":360.9,"endTime":362.28,"body":"find that quite attractive."},{"startTime":362.28,"endTime":365.16,"body":"That is a real challenge, I believe,"},{"startTime":365.16,"endTime":366.573,"body":"for the Western countries."},{"startTime":369.0,"endTime":371.31,"body":"So much for the longer-term trends."},{"startTime":371.31,"endTime":373.77,"body":"Overlaying that is this"},{"startTime":371.31,"endTime":373.77,"body":"series of upheavals"},{"startTime":373.77,"endTime":376.02,"body":"that have come thick and fast in our world"},{"startTime":376.02,"endTime":377.12,"body":"in the last few years."},{"startTime":380.036,"endTime":384.18,"body":"The Covid pandemic not only"},{"startTime":380.036,"endTime":384.18,"body":"took an awful human toll"},{"startTime":384.18,"endTime":386.13,"body":"and set back the global economy,"},{"startTime":386.13,"endTime":389.4,"body":"but it also exacerbated tensions"},{"startTime":386.13,"endTime":389.4,"body":"between the major powers,"},{"startTime":389.4,"endTime":393.15,"body":"in particular by disrupting supply chains"},{"startTime":393.15,"endTime":397.29,"body":"and in a way casting China as the villain"},{"startTime":397.29,"endTime":398.31,"body":"for Western countries"},{"startTime":398.31,"endTime":401.823,"body":"and exacerbating China's"},{"startTime":398.31,"endTime":401.823,"body":"isolation from the West."},{"startTime":403.167,"endTime":404.19,"body":"It was just at this moment"},{"startTime":404.19,"endTime":406.17,"body":"that Britain chose to leave the EU,"},{"startTime":406.17,"endTime":408.6,"body":"not I would say a very auspicious time"},{"startTime":408.6,"endTime":411.63,"body":"for Britain to venture out into the world"},{"startTime":411.63,"endTime":413.49,"body":"as an independent country"},{"startTime":413.49,"endTime":414.55,"body":"trying to champion"},{"startTime":416.19,"endTime":419.463,"body":"free trade and open borders."},{"startTime":420.6,"endTime":423.93,"body":"And Brexit has been a massive"},{"startTime":420.6,"endTime":423.93,"body":"dislocation for this country."},{"startTime":423.93,"endTime":425.76,"body":"It was partly sold as the opportunity"},{"startTime":425.76,"endTime":428.67,"body":"to go and champion free trade."},{"startTime":428.67,"endTime":431.7,"body":"But apart from throwing"},{"startTime":428.67,"endTime":431.7,"body":"up barriers to trade"},{"startTime":431.7,"endTime":435.3,"body":"with our nearest neighbors"},{"startTime":431.7,"endTime":435.3,"body":"and largest trading partners,"},{"startTime":435.3,"endTime":437.19,"body":"we've also found it very difficult"},{"startTime":437.19,"endTime":440.19,"body":"to land useful free trade"},{"startTime":437.19,"endTime":440.19,"body":"agreements with other countries,"},{"startTime":440.19,"endTime":442.023,"body":"in particular America."},{"startTime":443.43,"endTime":446.52,"body":"Britain left the EU at"},{"startTime":443.43,"endTime":446.52,"body":"a time when global trade"},{"startTime":446.52,"endTime":447.81,"body":"was actually shrinking"},{"startTime":447.81,"endTime":449.73,"body":"and the barriers were rising."},{"startTime":449.73,"endTime":451.26,"body":"And although economists will disagree"},{"startTime":451.26,"endTime":453.24,"body":"on exactly how much of a hit"},{"startTime":453.24,"endTime":458.24,"body":"that produced for the British economy,"},{"startTime":458.49,"endTime":461.37,"body":"it's nonetheless clear"},{"startTime":458.49,"endTime":461.37,"body":"that it was significant"},{"startTime":461.37,"endTime":464.253,"body":"and it is going to go on for many years."},{"startTime":465.57,"endTime":467.52,"body":"And the way Brexit was handled,"},{"startTime":467.52,"endTime":470.88,"body":"the chaos in British"},{"startTime":467.52,"endTime":470.88,"body":"politics over several years"},{"startTime":470.88,"endTime":475.74,"body":"has itself damaged Britain's"},{"startTime":470.88,"endTime":475.74,"body":"reputation around the world"},{"startTime":475.74,"endTime":478.68,"body":"as a country that is stable,"},{"startTime":478.68,"endTime":482.61,"body":"that has a good pragmatic"},{"startTime":478.68,"endTime":482.61,"body":"sense of its own interest,"},{"startTime":482.61,"endTime":486.24,"body":"and that is an upholder"},{"startTime":482.61,"endTime":486.24,"body":"of the rule of law."},{"startTime":486.24,"endTime":488.4,"body":"The threats to break international law"},{"startTime":488.4,"endTime":491.13,"body":"over the issue of the"},{"startTime":488.4,"endTime":491.13,"body":"Northern Ireland Protocol"},{"startTime":491.13,"endTime":494.7,"body":"have really surprised and disturbed"},{"startTime":494.7,"endTime":495.96,"body":"many countries around the world"},{"startTime":495.96,"endTime":497.91,"body":"who never expected to hear that"},{"startTime":497.91,"endTime":499.57,"body":"from the country that was the"},{"startTime":501.09,"endTime":505.02,"body":"mother of the idea of the rule of law"},{"startTime":505.02,"endTime":506.52,"body":"and parliamentary sovereignty."},{"startTime":508.29,"endTime":509.61,"body":"And now on top of that"},{"startTime":509.61,"endTime":512.04,"body":"we have the largest war in Europe"},{"startTime":512.04,"endTime":513.94,"body":"since the end of the Second World War."},{"startTime":514.83,"endTime":518.88,"body":"Taken together, that is a"},{"startTime":514.83,"endTime":518.88,"body":"pretty daunting set of issues"},{"startTime":518.88,"endTime":521.43,"body":"for any British government to handle,"},{"startTime":521.43,"endTime":525.69,"body":"let alone one that is weakened"},{"startTime":521.43,"endTime":525.69,"body":"by a sudden financial crisis"},{"startTime":525.69,"endTime":526.743,"body":"of its own making."},{"startTime":528.75,"endTime":531.12,"body":"Before coming to my prescription"},{"startTime":531.12,"endTime":532.95,"body":"for what I think Britain can do"},{"startTime":532.95,"endTime":537.12,"body":"to rebuild its badly damaged"},{"startTime":532.95,"endTime":537.12,"body":"reputation in the world,"},{"startTime":537.12,"endTime":538.59,"body":"I want to say a little bit more"},{"startTime":538.59,"endTime":541.41,"body":"about the implications of this Ukraine war"},{"startTime":541.41,"endTime":543.513,"body":"for European security."},{"startTime":545.07,"endTime":547.98,"body":"I declare an interest because"},{"startTime":545.07,"endTime":547.98,"body":"that is my special subject,"},{"startTime":547.98,"endTime":549.99,"body":"it's an issue that I have spent"},{"startTime":549.99,"endTime":552.69,"body":"much of my career dealing with,"},{"startTime":552.69,"endTime":556.23,"body":"from the middle 1970s"},{"startTime":552.69,"endTime":556.23,"body":"when I was first posted"},{"startTime":556.23,"endTime":558.27,"body":"to the British delegation to NATO"},{"startTime":558.27,"endTime":559.89,"body":"in the middle of the Cold War"},{"startTime":559.89,"endTime":562.2,"body":"and I watched the East-West confrontation"},{"startTime":562.2,"endTime":564.06,"body":"at very close quarters,"},{"startTime":564.06,"endTime":567.69,"body":"and then again as I was ambassador to NATO"},{"startTime":567.69,"endTime":570.213,"body":"after the Iraq War in 2003."},{"startTime":571.17,"endTime":575.52,"body":"And when I talk to audiences about NATO,"},{"startTime":575.52,"endTime":576.79,"body":"I often find that"},{"startTime":577.98,"endTime":580.17,"body":"it's a rather unknown"},{"startTime":577.98,"endTime":580.17,"body":"quantity for people now,"},{"startTime":580.17,"endTime":582.84,"body":"not surprisingly because for 40 years"},{"startTime":582.84,"endTime":584.58,"body":"since the end of the Cold War"},{"startTime":584.58,"endTime":589.38,"body":"NATO was not front and"},{"startTime":584.58,"endTime":589.38,"body":"center of people's concerns."},{"startTime":589.38,"endTime":591.6,"body":"It was an organization that got involved"},{"startTime":591.6,"endTime":595.14,"body":"with mounting the expeditions"},{"startTime":591.6,"endTime":595.14,"body":"to faraway countries"},{"startTime":595.14,"endTime":597.09,"body":"trying to bring stability in the Balkans"},{"startTime":597.09,"endTime":599.76,"body":"or in Afghanistan or in Libya,"},{"startTime":599.76,"endTime":603.27,"body":"but it was not central to what"},{"startTime":599.76,"endTime":603.27,"body":"people were thinking about"},{"startTime":603.27,"endTime":605.133,"body":"and worrying about for their future."},{"startTime":606.12,"endTime":608.79,"body":"So I hope that a few minutes spent on"},{"startTime":608.79,"endTime":611.61,"body":"why NATO has proved so durable"},{"startTime":611.61,"endTime":613.83,"body":"might be of some interest."},{"startTime":613.83,"endTime":617.31,"body":"The short answer is NATO is"},{"startTime":613.83,"endTime":617.31,"body":"a blend of two ingredients."},{"startTime":617.31,"endTime":618.143,"body":"First of all,"},{"startTime":618.143,"endTime":620.19,"body":"it's a collective defense organization,"},{"startTime":620.19,"endTime":622.08,"body":"as I'm sure everyone knows."},{"startTime":622.08,"endTime":624.72,"body":"Secondly, it's a political alliance"},{"startTime":624.72,"endTime":627.21,"body":"committed to promoting democracy,"},{"startTime":627.21,"endTime":629.76,"body":"human rights and the rule of law."},{"startTime":629.76,"endTime":634.76,"body":"And those two aspects fit"},{"startTime":629.76,"endTime":634.76,"body":"together to produce NATO."},{"startTime":635.173,"endTime":637.26,"body":"A NATO member state can be confident"},{"startTime":637.26,"endTime":639.3,"body":"that other members will"},{"startTime":637.26,"endTime":639.3,"body":"come to its defense"},{"startTime":639.3,"endTime":640.53,"body":"if it's attacked,"},{"startTime":640.53,"endTime":643.8,"body":"not just because of words"},{"startTime":640.53,"endTime":643.8,"body":"written in a treaty,"},{"startTime":643.8,"endTime":647.07,"body":"but because of the strength"},{"startTime":643.8,"endTime":647.07,"body":"of shared political commitment"},{"startTime":647.07,"endTime":649.563,"body":"among the member states"},{"startTime":647.07,"endTime":649.563,"body":"to support each other."},{"startTime":650.67,"endTime":654.78,"body":"The cement that holds NATO"},{"startTime":650.67,"endTime":654.78,"body":"together is confidence."},{"startTime":654.78,"endTime":656.31,"body":"The Washington Treaty,"},{"startTime":656.31,"endTime":658.16,"body":"which set up NATO in 1949,"},{"startTime":658.16,"endTime":660.63,"body":"is not a legally binding text."},{"startTime":660.63,"endTime":662.7,"body":"There's no transfer of sovereignty."},{"startTime":662.7,"endTime":667.26,"body":"It's based on a solemn"},{"startTime":662.7,"endTime":667.26,"body":"political commitment."},{"startTime":667.26,"endTime":670.17,"body":"But it preserves discretion"},{"startTime":667.26,"endTime":670.17,"body":"for each member's status"},{"startTime":670.17,"endTime":672.303,"body":"to how they carry out that commitment."},{"startTime":673.74,"endTime":675.6,"body":"The famous Article 5 of NATO,"},{"startTime":675.6,"endTime":677.43,"body":"which you've perhaps heard mentioned,"},{"startTime":677.43,"endTime":681.063,"body":"finds a point of balance between"},{"startTime":677.43,"endTime":681.063,"body":"these different elements."},{"startTime":682.2,"endTime":683.58,"body":"The American Senate,"},{"startTime":683.58,"endTime":684.96,"body":"in the run up to the NATO treaty,"},{"startTime":684.96,"endTime":686.16,"body":"insisted that there couldn't be"},{"startTime":686.16,"endTime":688.98,"body":"any automatic commitment of US forces"},{"startTime":688.98,"endTime":690.57,"body":"to defense of an ally"},{"startTime":690.57,"endTime":693.36,"body":"because it was always the"},{"startTime":690.57,"endTime":693.36,"body":"prerogative of the US Senate"},{"startTime":693.36,"endTime":696.39,"body":"to send their forces into conflict."},{"startTime":696.39,"endTime":698.46,"body":"The Europeans, led that time"},{"startTime":698.46,"endTime":701.67,"body":"by British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin,"},{"startTime":701.67,"endTime":703.32,"body":"wanted to make as clear as possible"},{"startTime":703.32,"endTime":705.06,"body":"that if an ally was attacked"},{"startTime":705.06,"endTime":708.12,"body":"other members of NATO would"},{"startTime":705.06,"endTime":708.12,"body":"come to their support."},{"startTime":708.12,"endTime":711.54,"body":"That's why you get in Article"},{"startTime":708.12,"endTime":711.54,"body":"5 this delicate balance."},{"startTime":711.54,"endTime":713.97,"body":"The article talks about each member state"},{"startTime":713.97,"endTime":717.3,"body":"taking such action as it deems necessary,"},{"startTime":717.3,"endTime":719.22,"body":"including the use of armed force,"},{"startTime":719.22,"endTime":722.4,"body":"to restore and maintain security"},{"startTime":719.22,"endTime":722.4,"body":"in the North Atlantic area."},{"startTime":722.4,"endTime":724.89,"body":"Such action as it deems necessary."},{"startTime":724.89,"endTime":727.44,"body":"It's not like the text of an EU treaty"},{"startTime":727.44,"endTime":729.33,"body":"which spells out in exhaustive detail"},{"startTime":729.33,"endTime":733.23,"body":"exactly what the member"},{"startTime":729.33,"endTime":733.23,"body":"states are required to do,"},{"startTime":733.23,"endTime":735.12,"body":"makes that law in EU countries,"},{"startTime":735.12,"endTime":739.17,"body":"makes it subject to testing"},{"startTime":735.12,"endTime":739.17,"body":"in a European parliament."},{"startTime":739.17,"endTime":742.53,"body":"It's a political commitment,"},{"startTime":739.17,"endTime":742.53,"body":"a very important one,"},{"startTime":742.53,"endTime":744.39,"body":"but it rests on the credibility"},{"startTime":744.39,"endTime":748.05,"body":"of the political commitment among allies,"},{"startTime":748.05,"endTime":750.06,"body":"confidence that it will be carried out"},{"startTime":750.06,"endTime":753.6,"body":"and in particular that the"},{"startTime":750.06,"endTime":753.6,"body":"Americans would come to the aid"},{"startTime":753.6,"endTime":755.01,"body":"of European allies"},{"startTime":755.01,"endTime":757.62,"body":"if they were attacked by the Soviet Union"},{"startTime":757.62,"endTime":758.61,"body":"when it was first agreed"},{"startTime":758.61,"endTime":760.59,"body":"and later of course by Russia,"},{"startTime":760.59,"endTime":762.51,"body":"including of course the full weight"},{"startTime":762.51,"endTime":764.79,"body":"of American military power"},{"startTime":764.79,"endTime":768.393,"body":"with their nuclear arsenal as well."},{"startTime":769.95,"endTime":772.56,"body":"NATO has always been an unequal alliance."},{"startTime":772.56,"endTime":776.397,"body":"It's always been an"},{"startTime":772.56,"endTime":776.397,"body":"alliance of one mega country"},{"startTime":776.397,"endTime":780.663,"body":"and many smaller allies as well."},{"startTime":781.68,"endTime":785.16,"body":"The US has always been by"},{"startTime":781.68,"endTime":785.16,"body":"far the strongest military"},{"startTime":785.16,"endTime":787.923,"body":"and economic country in the alliance."},{"startTime":788.85,"endTime":792.48,"body":"And that unbalance could"},{"startTime":788.85,"endTime":792.48,"body":"have been a problem"},{"startTime":792.48,"endTime":795.03,"body":"if America tried to use its muscle"},{"startTime":795.03,"endTime":797.25,"body":"to strong arm European countries"},{"startTime":797.25,"endTime":798.81,"body":"into doing things that"},{"startTime":797.25,"endTime":798.81,"body":"they didn't want to do."},{"startTime":798.81,"endTime":800.67,"body":"But that's always been avoided,"},{"startTime":800.67,"endTime":803.28,"body":"there's always been a"},{"startTime":800.67,"endTime":803.28,"body":"kind of mutual dependence."},{"startTime":803.28,"endTime":805.23,"body":"Certainly throughout the Cold War,"},{"startTime":805.23,"endTime":808.53,"body":"the Europeans were very, very"},{"startTime":805.23,"endTime":808.53,"body":"dependent on the Americans"},{"startTime":808.53,"endTime":810.453,"body":"to deter the Soviet Union."},{"startTime":812.43,"endTime":813.69,"body":"But the Americans worked out"},{"startTime":813.69,"endTime":815.91,"body":"that they too needed European allies."},{"startTime":815.91,"endTime":819.78,"body":"If they were going to"},{"startTime":815.91,"endTime":819.78,"body":"confront the Soviet ambition"},{"startTime":819.78,"endTime":823.41,"body":"to export its model worldwide,"},{"startTime":823.41,"endTime":825.51,"body":"they needed allies in Europe"},{"startTime":825.51,"endTime":828.12,"body":"and that's what we all provided."},{"startTime":828.12,"endTime":831.48,"body":"And that mutual dependence"},{"startTime":828.12,"endTime":831.48,"body":"continued after the Cold War."},{"startTime":831.48,"endTime":835.8,"body":"The Europeans called on the"},{"startTime":831.48,"endTime":835.8,"body":"Americans to come to our aid"},{"startTime":835.8,"endTime":838.17,"body":"over Bosnia and Kosovo,"},{"startTime":838.17,"endTime":841.503,"body":"to stop the awful ethnic"},{"startTime":838.17,"endTime":841.503,"body":"cleansing in the Balkans."},{"startTime":842.46,"endTime":844.98,"body":"And then when America"},{"startTime":842.46,"endTime":844.98,"body":"was attacked on 9/11,"},{"startTime":844.98,"endTime":847.86,"body":"the Americans needed the European allies"},{"startTime":847.86,"endTime":850.23,"body":"to go with them into Afghanistan"},{"startTime":850.23,"endTime":851.37,"body":"to root out the Taliban"},{"startTime":851.37,"endTime":853.68,"body":"and try and bring some stability there."},{"startTime":853.68,"endTime":856.35,"body":"So mutual dependence,"},{"startTime":856.35,"endTime":859.683,"body":"mutual interest in seeing NATO survive."},{"startTime":861.18,"endTime":865.8,"body":"And that's why the open"},{"startTime":861.18,"endTime":865.8,"body":"doubting of NATO by Donald Trump"},{"startTime":865.8,"endTime":868.77,"body":"when he came into the president of the US"},{"startTime":868.77,"endTime":870.09,"body":"was so toxic,"},{"startTime":870.09,"endTime":873.39,"body":"because it chipped away"},{"startTime":870.09,"endTime":873.39,"body":"at that fundamental trust"},{"startTime":873.39,"endTime":875.46,"body":"in the US commitment."},{"startTime":875.46,"endTime":878.85,"body":"Fortunately, President Biden understands"},{"startTime":878.85,"endTime":882.72,"body":"the importance of the"},{"startTime":878.85,"endTime":882.72,"body":"credibility of the US guarantee,"},{"startTime":882.72,"endTime":884.31,"body":"and that's just as well,"},{"startTime":884.31,"endTime":888.0,"body":"because we now have for"},{"startTime":884.31,"endTime":888.0,"body":"the first time in 80 years"},{"startTime":888.0,"endTime":891.45,"body":"a large-scale conventional war in Europe"},{"startTime":891.45,"endTime":894.81,"body":"and the NATO pact of collective defense"},{"startTime":894.81,"endTime":896.973,"body":"has become more important than ever."},{"startTime":899.22,"endTime":900.54,"body":"To me it's quite extraordinary"},{"startTime":900.54,"endTime":902.94,"body":"to find that 80 years"},{"startTime":900.54,"endTime":902.94,"body":"after the Second World War"},{"startTime":902.94,"endTime":906.3,"body":"we have again got cities"},{"startTime":902.94,"endTime":906.3,"body":"being smashed to pieces"},{"startTime":906.3,"endTime":909.78,"body":"by artillery fire on our continent"},{"startTime":909.78,"endTime":912.12,"body":"with massive loss of human life"},{"startTime":912.12,"endTime":916.5,"body":"and no doubt significant"},{"startTime":912.12,"endTime":916.5,"body":"atrocities happening as well."},{"startTime":916.5,"endTime":919.86,"body":"So NATO is back to its"},{"startTime":916.5,"endTime":919.86,"body":"initial purpose of 1949"},{"startTime":919.86,"endTime":922.71,"body":"of deterring and defending against threats"},{"startTime":922.71,"endTime":925.263,"body":"to the national territory"},{"startTime":922.71,"endTime":925.263,"body":"of our member states."},{"startTime":926.55,"endTime":929.55,"body":"Thank goodness NATO never"},{"startTime":926.55,"endTime":929.55,"body":"actually lost its focus on that"},{"startTime":929.55,"endTime":931.98,"body":"and it has elaborate plans for the defense"},{"startTime":931.98,"endTime":934.44,"body":"of NATO member states' territory,"},{"startTime":934.44,"endTime":936.87,"body":"and I think it's responded"},{"startTime":934.44,"endTime":936.87,"body":"very professionally"},{"startTime":936.87,"endTime":941.76,"body":"to the challenge of this major war"},{"startTime":941.76,"endTime":944.55,"body":"that Putin launched in Ukraine."},{"startTime":944.55,"endTime":947.28,"body":"American forces have come"},{"startTime":944.55,"endTime":947.28,"body":"back in large numbers"},{"startTime":947.28,"endTime":948.69,"body":"to the European continent,"},{"startTime":948.69,"endTime":952.43,"body":"Britain has deployed"},{"startTime":948.69,"endTime":952.43,"body":"significant numbers of troops"},{"startTime":952.43,"endTime":956.28,"body":"almost to the border with"},{"startTime":952.43,"endTime":956.28,"body":"Russia in the Baltic states"},{"startTime":956.28,"endTime":957.69,"body":"and in Romania,"},{"startTime":957.69,"endTime":959.523,"body":"other NATO countries have as well."},{"startTime":962.01,"endTime":964.26,"body":"I think we are often"},{"startTime":962.01,"endTime":964.26,"body":"encouraged to see Putin"},{"startTime":964.26,"endTime":966.96,"body":"as some sort of master strategist"},{"startTime":966.96,"endTime":969.15,"body":"who is unrolling a plan"},{"startTime":969.15,"endTime":972.81,"body":"to rebuild Russia's"},{"startTime":969.15,"endTime":972.81,"body":"position as a great power"},{"startTime":972.81,"endTime":975.063,"body":"and a major force in European security."},{"startTime":976.23,"endTime":978.36,"body":"But his war in Ukraine"},{"startTime":978.36,"endTime":981.36,"body":"has not only failed to achieve"},{"startTime":978.36,"endTime":981.36,"body":"its military objectives,"},{"startTime":981.36,"endTime":983.76,"body":"it's also undermined the reputation"},{"startTime":983.76,"endTime":985.233,"body":"of Russia's armed forces."},{"startTime":986.16,"endTime":990.06,"body":"It's been a massive strategic"},{"startTime":986.16,"endTime":990.06,"body":"setback for Putin already,"},{"startTime":990.06,"endTime":993.0,"body":"whatever the precise"},{"startTime":990.06,"endTime":993.0,"body":"outcome of the conflict,"},{"startTime":993.0,"endTime":996.18,"body":"and it has left NATO"},{"startTime":993.0,"endTime":996.18,"body":"stronger and more purposeful"},{"startTime":996.18,"endTime":998.733,"body":"than I can remember at"},{"startTime":996.18,"endTime":998.733,"body":"any time in my career."},{"startTime":999.93,"endTime":1002.6,"body":"For example, it's transformed"},{"startTime":999.93,"endTime":1002.6,"body":"the security situation"},{"startTime":1002.6,"endTime":1004.31,"body":"in the north of Europe."},{"startTime":1004.31,"endTime":1005.93,"body":"I was in Finland recently."},{"startTime":1005.93,"endTime":1008.69,"body":"Finland and Sweden have for decades been"},{"startTime":1008.69,"endTime":1010.25,"body":"proud neutral countries,"},{"startTime":1010.25,"endTime":1012.2,"body":"happy to work with NATO"},{"startTime":1012.2,"endTime":1014.63,"body":"but wanting to stand aside in neutrality."},{"startTime":1014.63,"endTime":1016.97,"body":"Now both have decided to join NATO."},{"startTime":1016.97,"endTime":1019.4,"body":"That's an enormous change"},{"startTime":1016.97,"endTime":1019.4,"body":"in the north of Europe"},{"startTime":1019.4,"endTime":1021.5,"body":"and it makes NATO much stronger"},{"startTime":1021.5,"endTime":1023.39,"body":"and actually much more coherent"},{"startTime":1023.39,"endTime":1025.643,"body":"in defending all that territory."},{"startTime":1027.23,"endTime":1029.21,"body":"You've all seen reporting"},{"startTime":1029.21,"endTime":1033.503,"body":"of Putin's reckless threats"},{"startTime":1029.21,"endTime":1033.503,"body":"of nuclear weapons use."},{"startTime":1034.629,"endTime":1038.03,"body":"In my opinion, he's doing"},{"startTime":1034.629,"endTime":1038.03,"body":"that primarily to frighten us."},{"startTime":1038.03,"endTime":1039.68,"body":"He knows Western public opinion"},{"startTime":1039.68,"endTime":1042.92,"body":"hasn't thought about"},{"startTime":1039.68,"endTime":1042.92,"body":"nuclear weapons for 40 years"},{"startTime":1042.92,"endTime":1046.31,"body":"and to hear talk of possible"},{"startTime":1042.92,"endTime":1046.31,"body":"use of nuclear weapons"},{"startTime":1046.31,"endTime":1047.543,"body":"is very scary."},{"startTime":1049.07,"endTime":1052.94,"body":"But he knows that any"},{"startTime":1049.07,"endTime":1052.94,"body":"use of nuclear weapons"},{"startTime":1052.94,"endTime":1055.67,"body":"would also be catastrophic for Russia,"},{"startTime":1055.67,"endTime":1058.94,"body":"not just because they might"},{"startTime":1055.67,"endTime":1058.94,"body":"land up being used in territory"},{"startTime":1058.94,"endTime":1061.043,"body":"which he now claims is Russian."},{"startTime":1062.18,"endTime":1064.4,"body":"But it would also completely scupper"},{"startTime":1064.4,"endTime":1065.75,"body":"Putin's relationship with China,"},{"startTime":1065.75,"endTime":1068.12,"body":"the Chinese would be"},{"startTime":1065.75,"endTime":1068.12,"body":"absolutely against the use"},{"startTime":1068.12,"endTime":1069.59,"body":"of nuclear weapons."},{"startTime":1069.59,"endTime":1071.51,"body":"That really would leave Russia"},{"startTime":1071.51,"endTime":1073.67,"body":"as a pariah in the world."},{"startTime":1073.67,"endTime":1076.31,"body":"And he knows that NATO is strong."},{"startTime":1076.31,"endTime":1078.08,"body":"I think he has no doubt"},{"startTime":1078.08,"endTime":1080.99,"body":"about the strength of"},{"startTime":1078.08,"endTime":1080.99,"body":"the NATO military forces,"},{"startTime":1080.99,"endTime":1082.94,"body":"America first and foremost."},{"startTime":1082.94,"endTime":1086.63,"body":"So I'm confident that"},{"startTime":1082.94,"endTime":1086.63,"body":"NATO deterrence will hold"},{"startTime":1086.63,"endTime":1088.97,"body":"and that certainly we"},{"startTime":1086.63,"endTime":1088.97,"body":"won't have a Russian attack"},{"startTime":1088.97,"endTime":1090.71,"body":"on NATO territory,"},{"startTime":1090.71,"endTime":1093.38,"body":"and I'm as confident as I can be"},{"startTime":1093.38,"endTime":1095.93,"body":"that he wouldn't take the absurd risk"},{"startTime":1095.93,"endTime":1099.41,"body":"of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine."},{"startTime":1099.41,"endTime":1101.42,"body":"But he's using the threat of them"},{"startTime":1101.42,"endTime":1104.66,"body":"and because Western opinion"},{"startTime":1101.42,"endTime":1104.66,"body":"is not well prepared for that,"},{"startTime":1104.66,"endTime":1106.22,"body":"that can be quite effective."},{"startTime":1106.22,"endTime":1108.08,"body":"In the immediate future,"},{"startTime":1108.08,"endTime":1112.07,"body":"my guess is that"},{"startTime":1112.07,"endTime":1115.73,"body":"the fighting in Ukraine will subside"},{"startTime":1115.73,"endTime":1117.203,"body":"as the cold weather comes on."},{"startTime":1118.28,"endTime":1120.59,"body":"Russian troops are demoralized,"},{"startTime":1120.59,"endTime":1123.71,"body":"they are suffering huge losses,"},{"startTime":1123.71,"endTime":1126.413,"body":"they need to pause, they need to resupply."},{"startTime":1127.55,"endTime":1130.32,"body":"And so I think there will"},{"startTime":1127.55,"endTime":1130.32,"body":"be a reduction in fighting"},{"startTime":1131.33,"endTime":1133.37,"body":"and through the winter it will be vital"},{"startTime":1133.37,"endTime":1136.82,"body":"that Western countries"},{"startTime":1133.37,"endTime":1136.82,"body":"continue to support Ukraine"},{"startTime":1136.82,"endTime":1139.13,"body":"in terms of weapon supplies"},{"startTime":1139.13,"endTime":1140.75,"body":"to make sure they're well prepared"},{"startTime":1140.75,"endTime":1143.15,"body":"for the resumption of"},{"startTime":1140.75,"endTime":1143.15,"body":"fighting in the spring"},{"startTime":1143.15,"endTime":1145.25,"body":"and economic support."},{"startTime":1145.25,"endTime":1146.72,"body":"And it's absolutely vital"},{"startTime":1146.72,"endTime":1149.99,"body":"that we maintain sanctions on Russia,"},{"startTime":1149.99,"endTime":1154.22,"body":"not least to prevent Western"},{"startTime":1149.99,"endTime":1154.22,"body":"technology like microprocessors"},{"startTime":1154.22,"endTime":1155.27,"body":"getting to Russia"},{"startTime":1155.27,"endTime":1157.13,"body":"so they can rebuild their weapons stocks"},{"startTime":1157.13,"endTime":1159.653,"body":"using Western technology."},{"startTime":1161.03,"endTime":1163.19,"body":"I personally believe"},{"startTime":1161.03,"endTime":1163.19,"body":"that Putin's annexation"},{"startTime":1163.19,"endTime":1165.53,"body":"of the Donbas region a few weeks ago"},{"startTime":1165.53,"endTime":1167.81,"body":"was a desperate effort to find something"},{"startTime":1167.81,"endTime":1170.84,"body":"which he could report to"},{"startTime":1167.81,"endTime":1170.84,"body":"Russian opinion as positive"},{"startTime":1170.84,"endTime":1174.32,"body":"from this gamble that he's"},{"startTime":1170.84,"endTime":1174.32,"body":"taken and that he's losing."},{"startTime":1174.32,"endTime":1175.82,"body":"But that was already overshadowed"},{"startTime":1175.82,"endTime":1178.91,"body":"by the attacks on the bridge to Crimea"},{"startTime":1178.91,"endTime":1182.543,"body":"and the continued forward"},{"startTime":1178.91,"endTime":1182.543,"body":"movement of Ukrainian forces."},{"startTime":1183.59,"endTime":1186.38,"body":"So Putin is on the defensive."},{"startTime":1186.38,"endTime":1187.33,"body":"It's clear I think"},{"startTime":1187.33,"endTime":1190.5,"body":"to an increasing range of"},{"startTime":1187.33,"endTime":1190.5,"body":"public opinion in Russia"},{"startTime":1191.542,"endTime":1193.94,"body":"that Russia is not doing well in this war."},{"startTime":1193.94,"endTime":1196.97,"body":"I think we will have a bit of"},{"startTime":1193.94,"endTime":1196.97,"body":"a stagnation over the winter"},{"startTime":1196.97,"endTime":1199.703,"body":"and that the fighting"},{"startTime":1196.97,"endTime":1199.703,"body":"will resume in the spring."},{"startTime":1202.19,"endTime":1203.51,"body":"We also have to recognize"},{"startTime":1203.51,"endTime":1206.99,"body":"that there is a risk of Ukraine"},{"startTime":1203.51,"endTime":1206.99,"body":"fatigue in our own countries"},{"startTime":1206.99,"endTime":1209.82,"body":"as economic pressures"},{"startTime":1206.99,"endTime":1209.82,"body":"build across the winter"},{"startTime":1210.68,"endTime":1212.15,"body":"with the spike in energy prices"},{"startTime":1212.15,"endTime":1214.553,"body":"and all the other pressures"},{"startTime":1212.15,"endTime":1214.553,"body":"on cost of living."},{"startTime":1215.48,"endTime":1217.97,"body":"I think there will be"},{"startTime":1215.48,"endTime":1217.97,"body":"more and more questioning"},{"startTime":1217.97,"endTime":1219.47,"body":"in public opinion of,"},{"startTime":1219.47,"endTime":1221.39,"body":"is it really the priority"},{"startTime":1221.39,"endTime":1223.7,"body":"to be standing fully behind Ukraine?"},{"startTime":1223.7,"endTime":1227.33,"body":"I think in the UK that is"},{"startTime":1223.7,"endTime":1227.33,"body":"still very widely accepted,"},{"startTime":1227.33,"endTime":1229.67,"body":"although please tell me if you disagree."},{"startTime":1229.67,"endTime":1231.62,"body":"I think in the US that's true as well."},{"startTime":1231.62,"endTime":1235.49,"body":"I think across Europe"},{"startTime":1231.62,"endTime":1235.49,"body":"questions are already arising."},{"startTime":1235.49,"endTime":1239.03,"body":"You can see Hungary is not at all in line"},{"startTime":1239.03,"endTime":1240.8,"body":"with other European countries."},{"startTime":1240.8,"endTime":1245.6,"body":"The new Italian coalition"},{"startTime":1240.8,"endTime":1245.6,"body":"is very divided on Russia"},{"startTime":1245.6,"endTime":1247.13,"body":"and how firm to be"},{"startTime":1247.13,"endTime":1250.19,"body":"and I think the debate"},{"startTime":1247.13,"endTime":1250.19,"body":"is spreading as well."},{"startTime":1250.19,"endTime":1252.47,"body":"So I think we have a job to do"},{"startTime":1252.47,"endTime":1255.17,"body":"and I wish that Britain would"},{"startTime":1252.47,"endTime":1255.17,"body":"be as active as possible"},{"startTime":1255.17,"endTime":1256.003,"body":"in doing it,"},{"startTime":1256.003,"endTime":1257.75,"body":"in maintaining support"},{"startTime":1257.75,"endTime":1260.333,"body":"for the tough sanctions policy on Russia."},{"startTime":1261.44,"endTime":1264.14,"body":"Europe has done remarkably"},{"startTime":1261.44,"endTime":1264.14,"body":"well in my view."},{"startTime":1264.14,"endTime":1266.78,"body":"The EU moved far more quickly"},{"startTime":1264.14,"endTime":1266.78,"body":"than I would've expected"},{"startTime":1266.78,"endTime":1270.29,"body":"on sanctions and on"},{"startTime":1266.78,"endTime":1270.29,"body":"supplying weapons to Russia,"},{"startTime":1270.29,"endTime":1272.63,"body":"but the implementation is slowing now"},{"startTime":1272.63,"endTime":1274.7,"body":"and these fractures that"},{"startTime":1272.63,"endTime":1274.7,"body":"I've been talking about"},{"startTime":1274.7,"endTime":1276.053,"body":"are becoming more apparent."},{"startTime":1277.55,"endTime":1281.42,"body":"However, if Europe can succeed"},{"startTime":1281.42,"endTime":1284.84,"body":"in weaning itself off"},{"startTime":1281.42,"endTime":1284.84,"body":"dependence on Russian gas,"},{"startTime":1284.84,"endTime":1288.17,"body":"that would be a huge strategic"},{"startTime":1284.84,"endTime":1288.17,"body":"benefit for the West,"},{"startTime":1288.17,"endTime":1292.34,"body":"it would break a major"},{"startTime":1288.17,"endTime":1292.34,"body":"part of Putin's leverage"},{"startTime":1292.34,"endTime":1293.66,"body":"over our countries"},{"startTime":1293.66,"endTime":1296.51,"body":"and prevent him blackmailing"},{"startTime":1293.66,"endTime":1296.51,"body":"European countries"},{"startTime":1296.51,"endTime":1299.66,"body":"using the the weapon of energy."},{"startTime":1299.66,"endTime":1303.05,"body":"So there's a big prize"},{"startTime":1299.66,"endTime":1303.05,"body":"for seeing this through"},{"startTime":1303.05,"endTime":1305.85,"body":"and countries like Germany I"},{"startTime":1303.05,"endTime":1305.85,"body":"think understand that well."},{"startTime":1306.92,"endTime":1310.013,"body":"How does this end in"},{"startTime":1306.92,"endTime":1310.013,"body":"Ukraine, I'm often asked."},{"startTime":1310.94,"endTime":1313.7,"body":"And of course I don't have a crystal ball,"},{"startTime":1313.7,"endTime":1316.22,"body":"but I think it's clear"},{"startTime":1313.7,"endTime":1316.22,"body":"that neither side can win"},{"startTime":1316.22,"endTime":1317.393,"body":"an outright victory."},{"startTime":1319.28,"endTime":1320.78,"body":"There's no prospect, I think,"},{"startTime":1320.78,"endTime":1324.14,"body":"of Russia succeeding"},{"startTime":1320.78,"endTime":1324.14,"body":"in conquering Ukraine."},{"startTime":1324.14,"endTime":1326.72,"body":"Equally, I don't think Ukraine can push"},{"startTime":1326.72,"endTime":1328.01,"body":"every last Russian soldier"},{"startTime":1328.01,"endTime":1330.89,"body":"out of Ukraine including Crimea."},{"startTime":1330.89,"endTime":1335.36,"body":"I also see no prospect"},{"startTime":1330.89,"endTime":1335.36,"body":"that Zelensky would accept"},{"startTime":1335.36,"endTime":1336.62,"body":"a peace settlement"},{"startTime":1336.62,"endTime":1338.33,"body":"in which he signed away"},{"startTime":1338.33,"endTime":1341.33,"body":"parts of Ukrainian sovereign"},{"startTime":1338.33,"endTime":1341.33,"body":"territory to Russia"},{"startTime":1341.33,"endTime":1343.28,"body":"in order to buy peace."},{"startTime":1343.28,"endTime":1346.22,"body":"That doesn't feel to me"},{"startTime":1343.28,"endTime":1346.22,"body":"like anything he could do"},{"startTime":1346.22,"endTime":1349.34,"body":"after the extraordinary"},{"startTime":1346.22,"endTime":1349.34,"body":"sacrifice and loss of life"},{"startTime":1349.34,"endTime":1351.56,"body":"that Ukraine has been through."},{"startTime":1351.56,"endTime":1355.25,"body":"So the only other option, which"},{"startTime":1351.56,"endTime":1355.25,"body":"I think is the most likely,"},{"startTime":1355.25,"endTime":1360.25,"body":"is at some point a Korea-style"},{"startTime":1355.25,"endTime":1360.25,"body":"armistice, a truce."},{"startTime":1360.89,"endTime":1363.5,"body":"A truce meaning the two sides accept"},{"startTime":1363.5,"endTime":1367.1,"body":"that they won't fight any"},{"startTime":1363.5,"endTime":1367.1,"body":"further, can't get any further,"},{"startTime":1367.1,"endTime":1369.53,"body":"that there will be a line of separation"},{"startTime":1369.53,"endTime":1372.65,"body":"which will be overseen by"},{"startTime":1369.53,"endTime":1372.65,"body":"the international community,"},{"startTime":1372.65,"endTime":1376.91,"body":"but neither side will accept"},{"startTime":1372.65,"endTime":1376.91,"body":"that as a permanent settlement"},{"startTime":1376.91,"endTime":1378.68,"body":"and sign a peace treaty."},{"startTime":1378.68,"endTime":1382.88,"body":"That's been the case on the"},{"startTime":1378.68,"endTime":1382.88,"body":"Korean Peninsula since 1954,"},{"startTime":1382.88,"endTime":1385.46,"body":"and so these things can last a long time,"},{"startTime":1385.46,"endTime":1389.3,"body":"and that's what I would"},{"startTime":1385.46,"endTime":1389.3,"body":"expect to see in Ukraine."},{"startTime":1389.3,"endTime":1390.89,"body":"That is a far better outcome"},{"startTime":1390.89,"endTime":1393.8,"body":"than the subjugation of Ukraine,"},{"startTime":1393.8,"endTime":1397.04,"body":"which is what Putin set"},{"startTime":1393.8,"endTime":1397.04,"body":"out to do at the beginning."},{"startTime":1397.04,"endTime":1399.95,"body":"It leaves a strongly pro-Western,"},{"startTime":1399.95,"endTime":1402.29,"body":"strongly nationalist Ukraine"},{"startTime":1402.29,"endTime":1403.853,"body":"in most of the country."},{"startTime":1404.9,"endTime":1407.27,"body":"But it would also leave"},{"startTime":1404.9,"endTime":1407.27,"body":"a considerable burden"},{"startTime":1407.27,"endTime":1411.68,"body":"on Britain, America, the"},{"startTime":1407.27,"endTime":1411.68,"body":"G7 countries, the EU,"},{"startTime":1411.68,"endTime":1413.66,"body":"the international financial institutions"},{"startTime":1413.66,"endTime":1415.43,"body":"to support Ukraine"},{"startTime":1415.43,"endTime":1419.003,"body":"through years of expensive reconstruction."},{"startTime":1420.86,"endTime":1423.5,"body":"This conflict has also posed"},{"startTime":1420.86,"endTime":1423.5,"body":"some quite difficult questions"},{"startTime":1423.5,"endTime":1424.583,"body":"for the EU."},{"startTime":1425.87,"endTime":1428.96,"body":"It has to now really think"},{"startTime":1425.87,"endTime":1428.96,"body":"about its role in the world."},{"startTime":1428.96,"endTime":1432.62,"body":"For decades, the EU was"},{"startTime":1428.96,"endTime":1432.62,"body":"an economic superpower"},{"startTime":1432.62,"endTime":1435.41,"body":"and a political and security pygmy,"},{"startTime":1435.41,"endTime":1437.21,"body":"but I don't think that"},{"startTime":1435.41,"endTime":1437.21,"body":"that's tenable anymore."},{"startTime":1437.21,"endTime":1438.89,"body":"And we've seen in Germany"},{"startTime":1438.89,"endTime":1442.43,"body":"a huge shift of strategic thinking"},{"startTime":1442.43,"endTime":1446.03,"body":"towards accepting Germany"},{"startTime":1442.43,"endTime":1446.03,"body":"must now pull its weight"},{"startTime":1446.03,"endTime":1448.013,"body":"as a security and defense actor."},{"startTime":1448.97,"endTime":1450.41,"body":"100 billion euros"},{"startTime":1450.41,"endTime":1452.93,"body":"committed to putting right"},{"startTime":1452.93,"endTime":1455.72,"body":"the weaknesses in the German armed forces,"},{"startTime":1455.72,"endTime":1459.44,"body":"a commitment to raise German"},{"startTime":1455.72,"endTime":1459.44,"body":"defense spending to 2%"},{"startTime":1459.44,"endTime":1461.093,"body":"for the foreseeable future."},{"startTime":1462.35,"endTime":1463.183,"body":"That's all good"},{"startTime":1463.183,"endTime":1468.11,"body":"and is a major shift in"},{"startTime":1463.183,"endTime":1468.11,"body":"German security thinking,"},{"startTime":1468.11,"endTime":1472.25,"body":"but to translate that into"},{"startTime":1468.11,"endTime":1472.25,"body":"actual military capability"},{"startTime":1472.25,"endTime":1474.23,"body":"is a long process."},{"startTime":1474.23,"endTime":1476.84,"body":"It's a long process in terms"},{"startTime":1474.23,"endTime":1476.84,"body":"of buying the equipment"},{"startTime":1476.84,"endTime":1478.19,"body":"and training the troops,"},{"startTime":1478.19,"endTime":1479.54,"body":"but it's an even longer process"},{"startTime":1479.54,"endTime":1481.85,"body":"probably in changing German culture."},{"startTime":1481.85,"endTime":1486.14,"body":"Germany has had a very"},{"startTime":1481.85,"endTime":1486.14,"body":"strong pacifist culture"},{"startTime":1486.14,"endTime":1490.13,"body":"that preferred to think"},{"startTime":1486.14,"endTime":1490.13,"body":"about treating commerce"},{"startTime":1490.13,"endTime":1493.46,"body":"and international negotiation"},{"startTime":1490.13,"endTime":1493.46,"body":"as what they were about,"},{"startTime":1493.46,"endTime":1497.09,"body":"and the culture shift"},{"startTime":1493.46,"endTime":1497.09,"body":"towards accepting Germany"},{"startTime":1497.09,"endTime":1501.17,"body":"might have to be prepared"},{"startTime":1497.09,"endTime":1501.17,"body":"to use its military power"},{"startTime":1501.17,"endTime":1503.36,"body":"at least to produce political objectives"},{"startTime":1503.36,"endTime":1504.71,"body":"in stabilizing Europe"},{"startTime":1504.71,"endTime":1506.963,"body":"is an enormous shift"},{"startTime":1504.71,"endTime":1506.963,"body":"and that will take time."},{"startTime":1509.0,"endTime":1511.64,"body":"All of these debates in NATO,"},{"startTime":1511.64,"endTime":1513.77,"body":"in the EU, across our countries,"},{"startTime":1513.77,"endTime":1515.54,"body":"will also be affected by what happens"},{"startTime":1515.54,"endTime":1518.363,"body":"in the American presidential"},{"startTime":1515.54,"endTime":1518.363,"body":"elections in 2024."},{"startTime":1520.52,"endTime":1523.37,"body":"Suppose Donald Trump comes back"},{"startTime":1523.37,"endTime":1526.043,"body":"or a Trump-like figure emerges."},{"startTime":1527.0,"endTime":1529.49,"body":"That will send shockwaves"},{"startTime":1527.0,"endTime":1529.49,"body":"again through Europe"},{"startTime":1529.49,"endTime":1531.38,"body":"given the experience with Trump,"},{"startTime":1531.38,"endTime":1534.08,"body":"it will accelerate thinking"},{"startTime":1534.08,"endTime":1537.2,"body":"about European strategic autonomy,"},{"startTime":1537.2,"endTime":1538.97,"body":"Europe being able to stand on its own feet"},{"startTime":1538.97,"endTime":1542.063,"body":"without necessarily depending"},{"startTime":1538.97,"endTime":1542.063,"body":"on American support."},{"startTime":1543.11,"endTime":1545.783,"body":"And incidentally, as I passed that point,"},{"startTime":1546.68,"endTime":1548.12,"body":"it does strike me as odd"},{"startTime":1548.12,"endTime":1550.13,"body":"that President Putin didn't choose a time"},{"startTime":1550.13,"endTime":1551.78,"body":"when President Trump"},{"startTime":1550.13,"endTime":1551.78,"body":"was in the White House"},{"startTime":1551.78,"endTime":1554.63,"body":"to launch his invasion of Ukraine."},{"startTime":1554.63,"endTime":1557.21,"body":"Just think of how difficult"},{"startTime":1557.21,"endTime":1558.5,"body":"the Western response would've been"},{"startTime":1558.5,"endTime":1560.93,"body":"if we'd had President"},{"startTime":1558.5,"endTime":1560.93,"body":"Trump in the White House."},{"startTime":1560.93,"endTime":1562.7,"body":"However, luckily for us all,"},{"startTime":1562.7,"endTime":1564.02,"body":"Putin missed that opportunity"},{"startTime":1564.02,"endTime":1566.66,"body":"and President Biden"},{"startTime":1564.02,"endTime":1566.66,"body":"has been very effective"},{"startTime":1566.66,"endTime":1568.28,"body":"in pulling the alliance together."},{"startTime":1568.28,"endTime":1571.07,"body":"But if the pendulum shifts back"},{"startTime":1571.07,"endTime":1575.57,"body":"to an isolationist Trump-like"},{"startTime":1571.07,"endTime":1575.57,"body":"president in the US,"},{"startTime":1575.57,"endTime":1577.07,"body":"that will have major implications"},{"startTime":1577.07,"endTime":1579.83,"body":"for how all Europeans"},{"startTime":1577.07,"endTime":1579.83,"body":"think about security."},{"startTime":1579.83,"endTime":1581.54,"body":"I would say Britain as well"},{"startTime":1581.54,"endTime":1583.07,"body":"then would have to think very seriously"},{"startTime":1583.07,"endTime":1586.76,"body":"about a closer partnership"},{"startTime":1583.07,"endTime":1586.76,"body":"with our European neighbors."},{"startTime":1586.76,"endTime":1589.94,"body":"That said, it is not by any means certain"},{"startTime":1589.94,"endTime":1591.23,"body":"that a Republican president"},{"startTime":1591.23,"endTime":1593.78,"body":"would take the same"},{"startTime":1591.23,"endTime":1593.78,"body":"position as Donald Trump"},{"startTime":1593.78,"endTime":1595.82,"body":"on, for example, NATO."},{"startTime":1595.82,"endTime":1597.17,"body":"I see that in the US Congress"},{"startTime":1597.17,"endTime":1599.51,"body":"there's very strong support for NATO"},{"startTime":1599.51,"endTime":1602.72,"body":"on the Republican side"},{"startTime":1599.51,"endTime":1602.72,"body":"and on the Democrat side."},{"startTime":1602.72,"endTime":1604.58,"body":"So we should not give up hope,"},{"startTime":1604.58,"endTime":1606.56,"body":"but that is a bit of a cloud"},{"startTime":1606.56,"endTime":1609.74,"body":"hanging over the debate"},{"startTime":1606.56,"endTime":1609.74,"body":"in Europe on security"},{"startTime":1609.74,"endTime":1611.99,"body":"until we know who will"},{"startTime":1609.74,"endTime":1611.99,"body":"be in the White House."},{"startTime":1613.16,"endTime":1615.41,"body":"Let me mention one other major factor"},{"startTime":1615.41,"endTime":1619.25,"body":"in the minds of defense"},{"startTime":1615.41,"endTime":1619.25,"body":"and security policy makers"},{"startTime":1619.25,"endTime":1620.57,"body":"in our capitals,"},{"startTime":1620.57,"endTime":1622.25,"body":"and that is China."},{"startTime":1622.25,"endTime":1624.17,"body":"Because although Russia is"},{"startTime":1624.17,"endTime":1626.66,"body":"the immediate threat to our security,"},{"startTime":1626.66,"endTime":1631.55,"body":"China is the bigger"},{"startTime":1626.66,"endTime":1631.55,"body":"longer-term security risk."},{"startTime":1631.55,"endTime":1633.68,"body":"While Russia is a declining power,"},{"startTime":1633.68,"endTime":1637.4,"body":"China is vying with US"},{"startTime":1633.68,"endTime":1637.4,"body":"for economic dominance"},{"startTime":1637.4,"endTime":1639.05,"body":"in the next generation."},{"startTime":1639.05,"endTime":1642.5,"body":"It's been investing massively"},{"startTime":1639.05,"endTime":1642.5,"body":"in its military forces,"},{"startTime":1642.5,"endTime":1644.063,"body":"including its nuclear forces."},{"startTime":1645.11,"endTime":1647.84,"body":"NATO, at its Madrid summit,"},{"startTime":1647.84,"endTime":1651.38,"body":"squarely put China on the"},{"startTime":1647.84,"endTime":1651.38,"body":"agenda of the NATO alliance."},{"startTime":1651.38,"endTime":1653.33,"body":"Not that NATO is going to go"},{"startTime":1653.33,"endTime":1656.66,"body":"and play a military role in Asia,"},{"startTime":1656.66,"endTime":1660.74,"body":"but that NATO should be"},{"startTime":1656.66,"endTime":1660.74,"body":"aware of what's happening,"},{"startTime":1660.74,"endTime":1664.29,"body":"should be considering the"},{"startTime":1660.74,"endTime":1664.29,"body":"threat that China poses"},{"startTime":1665.48,"endTime":1666.89,"body":"not just in military terms"},{"startTime":1666.89,"endTime":1668.96,"body":"but in terms of its bid to dominate"},{"startTime":1668.96,"endTime":1671.063,"body":"the next generation of technologies."},{"startTime":1672.74,"endTime":1675.92,"body":"We're already well aware"},{"startTime":1672.74,"endTime":1675.92,"body":"of the systematic theft"},{"startTime":1675.92,"endTime":1678.5,"body":"of our intellectual property by China,"},{"startTime":1678.5,"endTime":1681.11,"body":"their cyber attacks,"},{"startTime":1681.11,"endTime":1682.79,"body":"they're increasingly aggressive"},{"startTime":1682.79,"endTime":1685.97,"body":"so-called wolf warrior diplomacy."},{"startTime":1685.97,"endTime":1689.54,"body":"But they are also more"},{"startTime":1685.97,"endTime":1689.54,"body":"present around Europe"},{"startTime":1689.54,"endTime":1690.68,"body":"in military terms as well."},{"startTime":1690.68,"endTime":1693.23,"body":"The Chinese navy is very active."},{"startTime":1693.23,"endTime":1694.91,"body":"Indeed, there was one"},{"startTime":1693.23,"endTime":1694.91,"body":"point a few years ago"},{"startTime":1694.91,"endTime":1697.52,"body":"when there were more Chinese"},{"startTime":1694.91,"endTime":1697.52,"body":"warships in the Mediterranean"},{"startTime":1697.52,"endTime":1699.08,"body":"than French warships."},{"startTime":1699.08,"endTime":1702.29,"body":"So China is increasingly"},{"startTime":1702.29,"endTime":1704.72,"body":"a military issue for us"},{"startTime":1704.72,"endTime":1707.15,"body":"in our part of the world as well."},{"startTime":1707.15,"endTime":1709.46,"body":"And I think we've lacked up to now"},{"startTime":1709.46,"endTime":1712.34,"body":"a place where Europeans and Americans"},{"startTime":1712.34,"endTime":1714.53,"body":"can talk about China,"},{"startTime":1714.53,"endTime":1716.927,"body":"military terms, in terms"},{"startTime":1714.53,"endTime":1716.927,"body":"of its technology threat."},{"startTime":1716.927,"endTime":1718.52,"body":"And I think we need to have a place"},{"startTime":1718.52,"endTime":1719.81,"body":"where we can coordinate policy,"},{"startTime":1719.81,"endTime":1721.67,"body":"perhaps NATO could do that."},{"startTime":1721.67,"endTime":1726.05,"body":"NATO already has a close"},{"startTime":1721.67,"endTime":1726.05,"body":"partnership with Asian allies"},{"startTime":1726.05,"endTime":1728.69,"body":"like Australia, like Japan,"},{"startTime":1728.69,"endTime":1731.36,"body":"and we could perhaps use"},{"startTime":1728.69,"endTime":1731.36,"body":"NATO as an expanded forum."},{"startTime":1731.36,"endTime":1736.36,"body":"But defining a workable"},{"startTime":1731.36,"endTime":1736.36,"body":"strategy towards China"},{"startTime":1737.12,"endTime":1738.77,"body":"for the next generation"},{"startTime":1738.77,"endTime":1741.5,"body":"is a major task I think"},{"startTime":1738.77,"endTime":1741.5,"body":"in front of policy makers"},{"startTime":1741.5,"endTime":1743.93,"body":"all around the Western democracies."},{"startTime":1743.93,"endTime":1747.08,"body":"So I've ranged fairly widely"},{"startTime":1743.93,"endTime":1747.08,"body":"over this troubled world,"},{"startTime":1747.08,"endTime":1748.82,"body":"although I certainly haven't covered"},{"startTime":1748.82,"endTime":1752.63,"body":"every area of conflict and instability,"},{"startTime":1752.63,"endTime":1756.41,"body":"and I want to give you"},{"startTime":1752.63,"endTime":1756.41,"body":"three thoughts to conclude"},{"startTime":1756.41,"endTime":1760.49,"body":"on British national security policy"},{"startTime":1760.49,"endTime":1761.323,"body":"in the years to come,"},{"startTime":1761.323,"endTime":1762.41,"body":"and in doing so,"},{"startTime":1762.41,"endTime":1765.83,"body":"and I thank Mr. Connell"},{"startTime":1762.41,"endTime":1765.83,"body":"for his plug for my book,"},{"startTime":1765.83,"endTime":1768.68,"body":"I'm expanding the analysis"},{"startTime":1765.83,"endTime":1768.68,"body":"that I give in my book"},{"startTime":1768.68,"endTime":1771.59,"body":"where I try to draw on"},{"startTime":1768.68,"endTime":1771.59,"body":"my career as a diplomat"},{"startTime":1771.59,"endTime":1775.31,"body":"to think about how"},{"startTime":1771.59,"endTime":1775.31,"body":"Britain positions itself"},{"startTime":1775.31,"endTime":1779.6,"body":"to be an effective respected"},{"startTime":1775.31,"endTime":1779.6,"body":"operator in the world"},{"startTime":1779.6,"endTime":1780.593,"body":"in the years ahead."},{"startTime":1783.08,"endTime":1784.1,"body":"As a preamble to that,"},{"startTime":1784.1,"endTime":1788.57,"body":"let me remind you of a"},{"startTime":1784.1,"endTime":1788.57,"body":"comment by William Gladstone"},{"startTime":1788.57,"endTime":1792.083,"body":"in one of his Midlothian"},{"startTime":1788.57,"endTime":1792.083,"body":"speeches in the 1880s."},{"startTime":1792.957,"endTime":1796.07,"body":"\"Here is my first principle"},{"startTime":1792.957,"endTime":1796.07,"body":"of foreign policy."},{"startTime":1796.07,"endTime":1797.567,"body":"Good government at home.\""},{"startTime":1798.59,"endTime":1801.34,"body":"And I think that that is"},{"startTime":1798.59,"endTime":1801.34,"body":"actually very pertinent today."},{"startTime":1802.19,"endTime":1804.74,"body":"A country can't be effective abroad"},{"startTime":1804.74,"endTime":1806.99,"body":"if its government is weak at home."},{"startTime":1806.99,"endTime":1808.13,"body":"To be credible,"},{"startTime":1808.13,"endTime":1810.26,"body":"our political leaders need to convince"},{"startTime":1810.26,"endTime":1813.32,"body":"their interlocutors around the world"},{"startTime":1813.32,"endTime":1816.35,"body":"that they have the authority"},{"startTime":1813.32,"endTime":1816.35,"body":"to deliver on deals"},{"startTime":1816.35,"endTime":1818.09,"body":"and a political lifespan"},{"startTime":1818.09,"endTime":1820.733,"body":"which is measured in more than weeks."},{"startTime":1821.574,"endTime":1822.56,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1822.56,"endTime":1825.35,"body":"The political turmoil in the"},{"startTime":1822.56,"endTime":1825.35,"body":"UK over the last six years"},{"startTime":1825.35,"endTime":1829.13,"body":"really has damaged the"},{"startTime":1825.35,"endTime":1829.13,"body":"credibility of our leaders,"},{"startTime":1829.13,"endTime":1831.71,"body":"and that's even more"},{"startTime":1829.13,"endTime":1831.71,"body":"the case at the moment."},{"startTime":1831.71,"endTime":1835.16,"body":"And getting back to a degree of stability"},{"startTime":1835.16,"endTime":1836.81,"body":"in British politics"},{"startTime":1836.81,"endTime":1840.41,"body":"is a precondition for"},{"startTime":1836.81,"endTime":1840.41,"body":"Britain having real influence"},{"startTime":1840.41,"endTime":1842.093,"body":"and respect in the wider world."},{"startTime":1842.93,"endTime":1844.34,"body":"So let's hope that happens"},{"startTime":1844.34,"endTime":1846.95,"body":"and carry on on the basis that it does."},{"startTime":1846.95,"endTime":1850.1,"body":"First conclusion, major war"},{"startTime":1850.1,"endTime":1852.0,"body":"puts everything else into perspective."},{"startTime":1853.16,"endTime":1857.6,"body":"It's now time for Britain to put aside"},{"startTime":1857.6,"endTime":1859.23,"body":"the kind of exceptionalism"},{"startTime":1860.21,"endTime":1861.56,"body":"and frankly the hubris"},{"startTime":1861.56,"endTime":1863.45,"body":"that has exemplified our foreign policy"},{"startTime":1863.45,"endTime":1864.833,"body":"since the Brexit decision."},{"startTime":1866.12,"endTime":1867.44,"body":"If you listen to some of the rhetoric,"},{"startTime":1867.44,"endTime":1869.84,"body":"you would think Britain is"},{"startTime":1867.44,"endTime":1869.84,"body":"still a world leading power"},{"startTime":1869.84,"endTime":1871.58,"body":"in all sorts of areas,"},{"startTime":1871.58,"endTime":1872.723,"body":"still a great power."},{"startTime":1873.95,"endTime":1875.66,"body":"But if our country has influence,"},{"startTime":1875.66,"endTime":1878.72,"body":"it's going to be by working"},{"startTime":1875.66,"endTime":1878.72,"body":"with friends and allies,"},{"startTime":1878.72,"endTime":1882.56,"body":"coming forward with ideas that"},{"startTime":1878.72,"endTime":1882.56,"body":"help to solve their problems"},{"startTime":1882.56,"endTime":1884.12,"body":"as well as our own,"},{"startTime":1884.12,"endTime":1887.0,"body":"and reinforcing the set"},{"startTime":1884.12,"endTime":1887.0,"body":"of international rules"},{"startTime":1887.0,"endTime":1888.653,"body":"on which we depend so much."},{"startTime":1889.91,"endTime":1891.56,"body":"The UK response to the Ukraine crisis"},{"startTime":1891.56,"endTime":1892.91,"body":"I think has been impressive"},{"startTime":1892.91,"endTime":1894.32,"body":"and it's a reminder"},{"startTime":1894.32,"endTime":1897.26,"body":"that we can still be"},{"startTime":1894.32,"endTime":1897.26,"body":"an international leader"},{"startTime":1897.26,"endTime":1899.96,"body":"if we have a sound"},{"startTime":1897.26,"endTime":1899.96,"body":"analysis of the problem,"},{"startTime":1899.96,"endTime":1901.67,"body":"good policy ideas,"},{"startTime":1901.67,"endTime":1904.373,"body":"and consistent focus from"},{"startTime":1901.67,"endTime":1904.373,"body":"our political leaders."},{"startTime":1906.59,"endTime":1911.59,"body":"But despite all the efforts"},{"startTime":1906.59,"endTime":1911.59,"body":"of US, Britain, NATO, EU,"},{"startTime":1911.99,"endTime":1914.18,"body":"to convince other countries"},{"startTime":1914.18,"endTime":1916.343,"body":"about the threat that Russia poses,"},{"startTime":1917.72,"endTime":1918.98,"body":"there's a very strong message"},{"startTime":1918.98,"endTime":1920.54,"body":"in the fact that over 100 countries"},{"startTime":1920.54,"endTime":1922.49,"body":"have not wanted to get involved at all"},{"startTime":1922.49,"endTime":1924.77,"body":"in sanctions against Russia."},{"startTime":1924.77,"endTime":1926.67,"body":"They haven't seen it as their problem."},{"startTime":1928.91,"endTime":1930.26,"body":"There are all sorts of reasons for that,"},{"startTime":1930.26,"endTime":1933.08,"body":"but one of them is that"},{"startTime":1930.26,"endTime":1933.08,"body":"countries like Britain"},{"startTime":1933.08,"endTime":1936.92,"body":"haven't spent enough time"},{"startTime":1933.08,"endTime":1936.92,"body":"in countries further afield"},{"startTime":1936.92,"endTime":1938.99,"body":"talking to them about their issues."},{"startTime":1938.99,"endTime":1943.49,"body":"Britain has been so consumed"},{"startTime":1938.99,"endTime":1943.49,"body":"by Brexit in the last six years"},{"startTime":1943.49,"endTime":1947.24,"body":"that there hasn't been much"},{"startTime":1943.49,"endTime":1947.24,"body":"active British diplomacy"},{"startTime":1947.24,"endTime":1949.07,"body":"in many parts of the world."},{"startTime":1949.07,"endTime":1951.837,"body":"So now when British ministers"},{"startTime":1949.07,"endTime":1951.837,"body":"come to countries to say,"},{"startTime":1951.837,"endTime":1954.32,"body":"\"We need your help over Ukraine,\""},{"startTime":1954.32,"endTime":1956.007,"body":"they're inclined to say to us,"},{"startTime":1956.007,"endTime":1957.38,"body":"\"But what have you done about the problems"},{"startTime":1957.38,"endTime":1959.06,"body":"that matter to us?\""},{"startTime":1959.06,"endTime":1962.63,"body":"So I think we need now to"},{"startTime":1959.06,"endTime":1962.63,"body":"be putting much more effort"},{"startTime":1962.63,"endTime":1966.74,"body":"into foreign policy dialogue"},{"startTime":1962.63,"endTime":1966.74,"body":"with countries like India,"},{"startTime":1966.74,"endTime":1969.98,"body":"like South Africa, like"},{"startTime":1966.74,"endTime":1969.98,"body":"Brazil, like Indonesia,"},{"startTime":1969.98,"endTime":1973.4,"body":"big influential countries"},{"startTime":1969.98,"endTime":1973.4,"body":"who at the moment don't see"},{"startTime":1973.4,"endTime":1977.66,"body":"the fact that Putin has ridden roughshod"},{"startTime":1977.66,"endTime":1979.19,"body":"over the rules of international law"},{"startTime":1979.19,"endTime":1983.21,"body":"by invading a smaller and weaker neighbor,"},{"startTime":1983.21,"endTime":1984.747,"body":"and are much more inclined to think,"},{"startTime":1984.747,"endTime":1986.51,"body":"\"Well, it's just another squabble"},{"startTime":1986.51,"endTime":1987.68,"body":"between the East and the West."},{"startTime":1987.68,"endTime":1989.0,"body":"We've been used to that."},{"startTime":1989.0,"endTime":1991.07,"body":"Let's let them sort it out.\""},{"startTime":1991.07,"endTime":1993.59,"body":"I think if we want these"},{"startTime":1991.07,"endTime":1993.59,"body":"countries to be active"},{"startTime":1993.59,"endTime":1997.28,"body":"in supporting the international"},{"startTime":1993.59,"endTime":1997.28,"body":"rules when they're broken,"},{"startTime":1997.28,"endTime":1999.8,"body":"for example, by putting"},{"startTime":1997.28,"endTime":1999.8,"body":"sanctions on Russia,"},{"startTime":1999.8,"endTime":2002.2,"body":"we need to show that we are"},{"startTime":1999.8,"endTime":2002.2,"body":"actively talking to them"},{"startTime":2002.2,"endTime":2004.03,"body":"about the problems that matter to them,"},{"startTime":2004.03,"endTime":2006.28,"body":"probably first and"},{"startTime":2004.03,"endTime":2006.28,"body":"foremost, climate change,"},{"startTime":2006.28,"endTime":2009.91,"body":"but also issues of public"},{"startTime":2006.28,"endTime":2009.91,"body":"health and access to vaccines"},{"startTime":2009.91,"endTime":2011.203,"body":"and many other things."},{"startTime":2012.76,"endTime":2014.2,"body":"Second, the China threat."},{"startTime":2014.2,"endTime":2016.72,"body":"I said I think we need to have a proper"},{"startTime":2016.72,"endTime":2018.493,"body":"worked out China strategy."},{"startTime":2020.29,"endTime":2021.82,"body":"The immediate risk of course is"},{"startTime":2021.82,"endTime":2023.41,"body":"of a Chinese attack on Taiwan."},{"startTime":2023.41,"endTime":2027.25,"body":"I personally think that they"},{"startTime":2023.41,"endTime":2027.25,"body":"will have been quite surprised"},{"startTime":2027.25,"endTime":2029.62,"body":"by the strength of the Western reaction"},{"startTime":2029.62,"endTime":2031.78,"body":"to the invasion of Ukraine."},{"startTime":2031.78,"endTime":2034.18,"body":"I think they will have be"},{"startTime":2031.78,"endTime":2034.18,"body":"having to calculate now"},{"startTime":2034.18,"endTime":2037.45,"body":"what would be the impact"},{"startTime":2034.18,"endTime":2037.45,"body":"on us of being decoupled"},{"startTime":2037.45,"endTime":2041.11,"body":"from the SWIFT banking"},{"startTime":2037.45,"endTime":2041.11,"body":"system, for example."},{"startTime":2041.11,"endTime":2043.87,"body":"So I don't think an attack"},{"startTime":2041.11,"endTime":2043.87,"body":"on Taiwan is imminent,"},{"startTime":2043.87,"endTime":2045.43,"body":"but I also don't think"},{"startTime":2045.43,"endTime":2047.53,"body":"that we can get through"},{"startTime":2045.43,"endTime":2047.53,"body":"the next 10 or 15 years"},{"startTime":2047.53,"endTime":2050.713,"body":"without some major crisis over Taiwan."},{"startTime":2051.61,"endTime":2053.35,"body":"I think Xi Jinping"},{"startTime":2053.35,"endTime":2057.64,"body":"feels that he's the one"},{"startTime":2053.35,"endTime":2057.64,"body":"to settle the Taiwan issue"},{"startTime":2057.64,"endTime":2059.74,"body":"while he is in power,"},{"startTime":2059.74,"endTime":2062.5,"body":"and, you know, he's just"},{"startTime":2059.74,"endTime":2062.5,"body":"declared himself this week"},{"startTime":2062.5,"endTime":2064.0,"body":"perpetual leader of China,"},{"startTime":2064.0,"endTime":2065.83,"body":"but he can't last forever."},{"startTime":2065.83,"endTime":2069.04,"body":"So although the US will have"},{"startTime":2065.83,"endTime":2069.04,"body":"the major responsibility"},{"startTime":2069.04,"endTime":2071.74,"body":"for responding to a crisis over Taiwan"},{"startTime":2071.74,"endTime":2073.81,"body":"and upholding the rule of law there,"},{"startTime":2073.81,"endTime":2076.73,"body":"I think Britain as a close ally of America"},{"startTime":2077.68,"endTime":2079.99,"body":"with our global diplomatic service,"},{"startTime":2079.99,"endTime":2082.27,"body":"our global intelligence reach,"},{"startTime":2082.27,"endTime":2083.68,"body":"and our powerful military,"},{"startTime":2083.68,"endTime":2085.75,"body":"we also need to be"},{"startTime":2083.68,"endTime":2085.75,"body":"working with the Americans"},{"startTime":2085.75,"endTime":2089.44,"body":"to see what contribution we"},{"startTime":2085.75,"endTime":2089.44,"body":"can make as their closest ally"},{"startTime":2089.44,"endTime":2090.973,"body":"to a crisis on Taiwan."},{"startTime":2092.14,"endTime":2093.94,"body":"We heard when the government published"},{"startTime":2093.94,"endTime":2096.52,"body":"its integrated review"},{"startTime":2093.94,"endTime":2096.52,"body":"of security last year"},{"startTime":2096.52,"endTime":2099.12,"body":"quite a lot of the talk"},{"startTime":2096.52,"endTime":2099.12,"body":"about the Indo-Pacific tilt."},{"startTime":2100.75,"endTime":2102.64,"body":"I was always a bit skeptical about that"},{"startTime":2102.64,"endTime":2104.23,"body":"because it sounded more like a slogan"},{"startTime":2104.23,"endTime":2105.82,"body":"than a worked out strategy to me."},{"startTime":2105.82,"endTime":2108.52,"body":"And of course now the"},{"startTime":2105.82,"endTime":2108.52,"body":"Ukraine war has shown"},{"startTime":2108.52,"endTime":2112.81,"body":"that in fact European security"},{"startTime":2108.52,"endTime":2112.81,"body":"is the center of gravity"},{"startTime":2112.81,"endTime":2114.58,"body":"of British security interests,"},{"startTime":2114.58,"endTime":2115.9,"body":"not the Indo-Pacific."},{"startTime":2115.9,"endTime":2118.9,"body":"But nonetheless, we do need"},{"startTime":2115.9,"endTime":2118.9,"body":"to be talking to the Americans"},{"startTime":2118.9,"endTime":2121.9,"body":"about a serious China strategy"},{"startTime":2121.9,"endTime":2124.36,"body":"and it needs to be one which balances"},{"startTime":2124.36,"endTime":2126.49,"body":"vigilance over security,"},{"startTime":2126.49,"endTime":2129.91,"body":"clarity in calling out"},{"startTime":2126.49,"endTime":2129.91,"body":"Chinese human rights abuses,"},{"startTime":2129.91,"endTime":2133.09,"body":"but also, given the state"},{"startTime":2129.91,"endTime":2133.09,"body":"of the British economy,"},{"startTime":2133.09,"endTime":2137.02,"body":"preserving access to"},{"startTime":2133.09,"endTime":2137.02,"body":"that huge Chinese market"},{"startTime":2137.02,"endTime":2138.76,"body":"for goods and services"},{"startTime":2138.76,"endTime":2141.25,"body":"which don't touch on issues of security"},{"startTime":2141.25,"endTime":2142.69,"body":"and which we are going to need"},{"startTime":2142.69,"endTime":2144.7,"body":"if we're going to grow"},{"startTime":2142.69,"endTime":2144.7,"body":"our way through trade"},{"startTime":2144.7,"endTime":2146.83,"body":"out of our current economic weakness."},{"startTime":2146.83,"endTime":2148.45,"body":"And I think standing"},{"startTime":2146.83,"endTime":2148.45,"body":"in the City of London,"},{"startTime":2148.45,"endTime":2151.12,"body":"there are probably plenty here"},{"startTime":2148.45,"endTime":2151.12,"body":"who would agree with that."},{"startTime":2151.12,"endTime":2154.12,"body":"But that's quite a nuanced"},{"startTime":2151.12,"endTime":2154.12,"body":"policy we need to work out,"},{"startTime":2154.12,"endTime":2155.5,"body":"it's not black and white,"},{"startTime":2155.5,"endTime":2159.55,"body":"and of course rarely is"},{"startTime":2155.5,"endTime":2159.55,"body":"foreign policy black and white."},{"startTime":2159.55,"endTime":2161.02,"body":"Final conclusion, you'll be glad,"},{"startTime":2161.02,"endTime":2164.14,"body":"and then we shall have"},{"startTime":2161.02,"endTime":2164.14,"body":"time for some questions."},{"startTime":2164.14,"endTime":2166.48,"body":"My last conclusion and my profound hope"},{"startTime":2166.48,"endTime":2169.33,"body":"is that the British"},{"startTime":2166.48,"endTime":2169.33,"body":"governments in the coming years"},{"startTime":2169.33,"endTime":2171.28,"body":"will use the Ukraine crisis"},{"startTime":2171.28,"endTime":2175.54,"body":"to rebuild a mature working cooperation"},{"startTime":2175.54,"endTime":2176.893,"body":"with the European Union."},{"startTime":2177.76,"endTime":2178.9,"body":"I think it can start"},{"startTime":2178.9,"endTime":2180.94,"body":"in the area of foreign and security policy"},{"startTime":2180.94,"endTime":2184.851,"body":"where there are no"},{"startTime":2180.94,"endTime":2184.851,"body":"particular legal tangles"},{"startTime":2184.851,"endTime":2186.49,"body":"to catch us out"},{"startTime":2186.49,"endTime":2190.3,"body":"as there are in trying to"},{"startTime":2186.49,"endTime":2190.3,"body":"restore links, for example,"},{"startTime":2190.3,"endTime":2191.983,"body":"in trade or competition policy."},{"startTime":2192.82,"endTime":2194.77,"body":"But there are also energy issues"},{"startTime":2194.77,"endTime":2196.96,"body":"of energy cooperation,"},{"startTime":2194.77,"endTime":2196.96,"body":"climate cooperation,"},{"startTime":2196.96,"endTime":2200.143,"body":"where we need to be working"},{"startTime":2196.96,"endTime":2200.143,"body":"closely with the European Union."},{"startTime":2201.13,"endTime":2203.53,"body":"I know there are some"},{"startTime":2201.13,"endTime":2203.53,"body":"discreet talks going on"},{"startTime":2203.53,"endTime":2206.8,"body":"about sanctions policy and Russia,"},{"startTime":2206.8,"endTime":2208.87,"body":"and it was very good that"},{"startTime":2206.8,"endTime":2208.87,"body":"the Prime Minister went"},{"startTime":2208.87,"endTime":2212.98,"body":"to that European political"},{"startTime":2208.87,"endTime":2212.98,"body":"community meeting in Prague"},{"startTime":2212.98,"endTime":2214.78,"body":"on the 6th of October."},{"startTime":2214.78,"endTime":2219.22,"body":"That was 44 countries"},{"startTime":2214.78,"endTime":2219.22,"body":"outside the EU framework"},{"startTime":2219.22,"endTime":2220.96,"body":"to discuss security."},{"startTime":2220.96,"endTime":2223.9,"body":"But that is not a substitute"},{"startTime":2220.96,"endTime":2223.9,"body":"for talking to the EU,"},{"startTime":2223.9,"endTime":2228.25,"body":"it has no secretariat"},{"startTime":2223.9,"endTime":2228.25,"body":"there's no follow up."},{"startTime":2228.25,"endTime":2230.02,"body":"It is a meeting,"},{"startTime":2230.02,"endTime":2232.633,"body":"a gathering that will"},{"startTime":2230.02,"endTime":2232.633,"body":"happen every six months."},{"startTime":2233.56,"endTime":2235.42,"body":"It was very good that the"},{"startTime":2233.56,"endTime":2235.42,"body":"Prime Minister used that"},{"startTime":2235.42,"endTime":2237.07,"body":"to agree with President Macron"},{"startTime":2237.07,"endTime":2240.64,"body":"that there will be a"},{"startTime":2237.07,"endTime":2240.64,"body":"Franco-British summit in 2023."},{"startTime":2240.64,"endTime":2243.01,"body":"The relationship with"},{"startTime":2240.64,"endTime":2243.01,"body":"France has been very broken"},{"startTime":2243.01,"endTime":2244.42,"body":"over recent years,"},{"startTime":2244.42,"endTime":2246.28,"body":"quite largely because of the way"},{"startTime":2246.28,"endTime":2248.23,"body":"the previous Prime Minister handled it"},{"startTime":2248.23,"endTime":2250.39,"body":"and the mockery and denigration we had"},{"startTime":2250.39,"endTime":2251.893,"body":"of the French president."},{"startTime":2252.76,"endTime":2256.0,"body":"But we will only have a"},{"startTime":2252.76,"endTime":2256.0,"body":"summit with the French,"},{"startTime":2256.0,"endTime":2259.221,"body":"we will only be able to mend"},{"startTime":2256.0,"endTime":2259.221,"body":"our relations with the EU"},{"startTime":2259.221,"endTime":2260.66,"body":"if the government"},{"startTime":2262.21,"endTime":2265.12,"body":"pulls back from the threat"},{"startTime":2262.21,"endTime":2265.12,"body":"of unilateral action"},{"startTime":2265.12,"endTime":2267.19,"body":"over the Northern Ireland Protocol"},{"startTime":2267.19,"endTime":2269.65,"body":"that they signed with"},{"startTime":2267.19,"endTime":2269.65,"body":"the EU three years ago."},{"startTime":2269.65,"endTime":2272.17,"body":"We have a massive Northern"},{"startTime":2269.65,"endTime":2272.17,"body":"Ireland Protocol bill"},{"startTime":2272.17,"endTime":2274.15,"body":"sitting in the House"},{"startTime":2272.17,"endTime":2274.15,"body":"of Lords at the moment"},{"startTime":2274.15,"endTime":2277.69,"body":"and I hope that we will agree"},{"startTime":2274.15,"endTime":2277.69,"body":"to pause that, to postpone it,"},{"startTime":2277.69,"endTime":2280.87,"body":"to give time to settle that"},{"startTime":2277.69,"endTime":2280.87,"body":"issue through negotiations."},{"startTime":2280.87,"endTime":2282.01,"body":"If we can do that,"},{"startTime":2282.01,"endTime":2284.473,"body":"that really opens the door"},{"startTime":2282.01,"endTime":2284.473,"body":"to closer cooperation,"},{"startTime":2285.34,"endTime":2287.74,"body":"not just with the EU but"},{"startTime":2285.34,"endTime":2287.74,"body":"individual European countries,"},{"startTime":2287.74,"endTime":2291.22,"body":"which we really need in"},{"startTime":2287.74,"endTime":2291.22,"body":"today's troubled world."},{"startTime":2291.22,"endTime":2296.22,"body":"So, major crises put"},{"startTime":2291.22,"endTime":2296.22,"body":"things into perspective,"},{"startTime":2296.23,"endTime":2298.27,"body":"they also create opportunities."},{"startTime":2298.27,"endTime":2300.97,"body":"And I think Putin's"},{"startTime":2298.27,"endTime":2300.97,"body":"massive strategic error"},{"startTime":2300.97,"endTime":2302.24,"body":"in invading Ukraine"},{"startTime":2303.16,"endTime":2305.74,"body":"is leading to a permanent reduction"},{"startTime":2305.74,"endTime":2308.5,"body":"in Russia's leverage over other countries"},{"startTime":2308.5,"endTime":2311.23,"body":"and a strengthen of the NATO alliance."},{"startTime":2311.23,"endTime":2312.94,"body":"And I think if Western leaders"},{"startTime":2312.94,"endTime":2315.19,"body":"take the right decisions"},{"startTime":2312.94,"endTime":2315.19,"body":"in the months ahead,"},{"startTime":2315.19,"endTime":2317.11,"body":"this awful war in Ukraine"},{"startTime":2317.11,"endTime":2321.22,"body":"can lead to a more stable"},{"startTime":2317.11,"endTime":2321.22,"body":"European security order"},{"startTime":2321.22,"endTime":2322.9,"body":"in the longer term."},{"startTime":2322.9,"endTime":2323.77,"body":"And ladies and gentlemen,"},{"startTime":2323.77,"endTime":2325.33,"body":"I think that's a fitting objective"},{"startTime":2325.33,"endTime":2328.03,"body":"as we remember the"},{"startTime":2325.33,"endTime":2328.03,"body":"achievements of Peter Naylor"},{"startTime":2328.03,"endTime":2329.14,"body":"and his generation."},{"startTime":2329.14,"endTime":2330.743,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":2330.743,"endTime":2333.743,"body":"(audience applauds)"},{"startTime":2335.77,"endTime":2338.38,"body":"- Because of the crisis with Ukraine,"},{"startTime":2338.38,"endTime":2341.26,"body":"we are not keeping an"},{"startTime":2338.38,"endTime":2341.26,"body":"eye on events in Africa"},{"startTime":2341.26,"endTime":2342.1,"body":"and South America,"},{"startTime":2342.1,"endTime":2345.613,"body":"particularly with regard to"},{"startTime":2342.1,"endTime":2345.613,"body":"Chinese and Russian activity."},{"startTime":2346.45,"endTime":2349.75,"body":"- Yeah, I mean the answer is yes."},{"startTime":2349.75,"endTime":2350.583,"body":"As I said,"},{"startTime":2350.583,"endTime":2353.53,"body":"I think that Brexit has"},{"startTime":2350.583,"endTime":2353.53,"body":"consumed so much bandwidth"},{"startTime":2353.53,"endTime":2354.76,"body":"in British politics"},{"startTime":2354.76,"endTime":2356.41,"body":"that there's been very little time"},{"startTime":2356.41,"endTime":2359.32,"body":"to do much foreign policy"},{"startTime":2356.41,"endTime":2359.32,"body":"of the classic kind."},{"startTime":2359.32,"endTime":2360.94,"body":"British diplomats have been working,"},{"startTime":2360.94,"endTime":2363.64,"body":"but ministers haven't been out and about"},{"startTime":2363.64,"endTime":2364.99,"body":"talking to other countries,"},{"startTime":2364.99,"endTime":2367.63,"body":"and Ukraine has now been the central focus"},{"startTime":2367.63,"endTime":2369.19,"body":"and there's no time for anything else."},{"startTime":2369.19,"endTime":2371.35,"body":"So I don't see active"},{"startTime":2369.19,"endTime":2371.35,"body":"British foreign policy"},{"startTime":2371.35,"endTime":2375.16,"body":"in the Middle East, in"},{"startTime":2371.35,"endTime":2375.16,"body":"Africa, or in Latin America."},{"startTime":2375.16,"endTime":2376.06,"body":"And on top of that,"},{"startTime":2376.06,"endTime":2379.15,"body":"Britain has cut its aid"},{"startTime":2376.06,"endTime":2379.15,"body":"program significantly,"},{"startTime":2379.15,"endTime":2381.91,"body":"damaging in my view a"},{"startTime":2379.15,"endTime":2381.91,"body":"major soft power asset"},{"startTime":2381.91,"endTime":2383.92,"body":"we had with DFID,"},{"startTime":2383.92,"endTime":2386.41,"body":"which I think was very"},{"startTime":2383.92,"endTime":2386.41,"body":"respected around the world."},{"startTime":2386.41,"endTime":2390.31,"body":"Now fused with the Foreign"},{"startTime":2386.41,"endTime":2390.31,"body":"Office and with its budget cut,"},{"startTime":2390.31,"endTime":2392.35,"body":"British development policy is in a mess"},{"startTime":2392.35,"endTime":2395.44,"body":"and that is costing us reputation as well."},{"startTime":2395.44,"endTime":2397.12,"body":"Sorry to be negative, but"},{"startTime":2395.44,"endTime":2397.12,"body":"I'm afraid that's my view."},{"startTime":2397.12,"endTime":2398.173,"body":"- Sir, your question."},{"startTime":2399.04,"endTime":2401.98,"body":"- [Audience Member]"},{"startTime":2399.04,"endTime":2401.98,"body":"Yes, I think nationalism"},{"startTime":2401.98,"endTime":2405.52,"body":"is the root of all our problems."},{"startTime":2405.52,"endTime":2409.69,"body":"I wonder if you could address"},{"startTime":2405.52,"endTime":2409.69,"body":"the elephant in the room"},{"startTime":2409.69,"endTime":2414.31,"body":"about the rise of Irish"},{"startTime":2409.69,"endTime":2414.31,"body":"and Scottish nationalism"},{"startTime":2414.31,"endTime":2417.91,"body":"and the possibility"},{"startTime":2414.31,"endTime":2417.91,"body":"there might not be a UK"},{"startTime":2417.91,"endTime":2419.86,"body":"in the next few years"},{"startTime":2419.86,"endTime":2422.533,"body":"to have a joint policy."},{"startTime":2423.76,"endTime":2424.593,"body":"- Well, thank you"},{"startTime":2424.593,"endTime":2426.76,"body":"for a very large question"},{"startTime":2424.593,"endTime":2426.76,"body":"indeed, my goodness,"},{"startTime":2426.76,"endTime":2428.53,"body":"and it is the elephant in the room."},{"startTime":2428.53,"endTime":2430.36,"body":"How long can Great Britain be great"},{"startTime":2430.36,"endTime":2432.703,"body":"if we have these forces?"},{"startTime":2434.35,"endTime":2436.9,"body":"I mean, I think that"},{"startTime":2434.35,"endTime":2436.9,"body":"Irish and Scottish cases"},{"startTime":2436.9,"endTime":2437.92,"body":"are probably different"},{"startTime":2437.92,"endTime":2440.053,"body":"and I'm by no means an expert on either."},{"startTime":2441.31,"endTime":2444.01,"body":"I think there has been for a long time"},{"startTime":2444.01,"endTime":2447.13,"body":"an English problem in our United Kingdom"},{"startTime":2447.13,"endTime":2449.68,"body":"in the sense that England"},{"startTime":2447.13,"endTime":2449.68,"body":"is 80% of the economy"},{"startTime":2449.68,"endTime":2451.39,"body":"and of the population"},{"startTime":2451.39,"endTime":2453.97,"body":"and has tended to behave like that."},{"startTime":2453.97,"endTime":2456.877,"body":"And although there were"},{"startTime":2453.97,"endTime":2456.877,"body":"devolved settlements"},{"startTime":2456.877,"endTime":2459.19,"body":"to the other nations,"},{"startTime":2459.19,"endTime":2460.27,"body":"I think there's still a feeling"},{"startTime":2460.27,"endTime":2463.6,"body":"that England called the"},{"startTime":2460.27,"endTime":2463.6,"body":"shots on all the big issues,"},{"startTime":2463.6,"endTime":2465.823,"body":"and for example, in relations with the EU."},{"startTime":2466.69,"endTime":2469.21,"body":"Scottish nationalism has"},{"startTime":2466.69,"endTime":2469.21,"body":"been fueled by the fact"},{"startTime":2469.21,"endTime":2470.5,"body":"that Britain left the EU"},{"startTime":2470.5,"endTime":2472.66,"body":"while Scotland wanted to remain in the EU,"},{"startTime":2472.66,"endTime":2474.615,"body":"there's no doubt about that."},{"startTime":2474.615,"endTime":2478.24,"body":"And I think probably the"},{"startTime":2474.615,"endTime":2478.24,"body":"idea of a united Ireland"},{"startTime":2478.24,"endTime":2480.85,"body":"has been fueled by the whole way"},{"startTime":2480.85,"endTime":2484.083,"body":"the Northern Ireland Protocol"},{"startTime":2480.85,"endTime":2484.083,"body":"issue has been handled"},{"startTime":2484.083,"endTime":2487.06,"body":"and the fact that now Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":2487.06,"endTime":2490.15,"body":"does manage to have a foot both"},{"startTime":2487.06,"endTime":2490.15,"body":"in the British single market"},{"startTime":2490.15,"endTime":2492.52,"body":"and in the EU single market,"},{"startTime":2492.52,"endTime":2494.17,"body":"and there are perhaps"},{"startTime":2492.52,"endTime":2494.17,"body":"quite a lot of people"},{"startTime":2494.17,"endTime":2495.003,"body":"in Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":2495.003,"endTime":2497.23,"body":"who are thinking that"},{"startTime":2495.003,"endTime":2497.23,"body":"isn't a bad place to be."},{"startTime":2497.23,"endTime":2500.35,"body":"And indeed the idea of a"},{"startTime":2497.23,"endTime":2500.35,"body":"united Ireland is on the agenda"},{"startTime":2500.35,"endTime":2502.0,"body":"in a way it hasn't been."},{"startTime":2502.0,"endTime":2503.05,"body":"So what do we do about it?"},{"startTime":2503.05,"endTime":2504.7,"body":"Well, first of all,"},{"startTime":2504.7,"endTime":2506.56,"body":"I think England needs to take more notice"},{"startTime":2506.56,"endTime":2507.85,"body":"of what's happening in Scotland"},{"startTime":2507.85,"endTime":2509.29,"body":"and Wales and Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":2509.29,"endTime":2511.87,"body":"and factor it more into policy making,"},{"startTime":2511.87,"endTime":2514.753,"body":"reduce the London-centric"},{"startTime":2511.87,"endTime":2514.753,"body":"nature of our policy making."},{"startTime":2515.59,"endTime":2516.61,"body":"But in the end,"},{"startTime":2516.61,"endTime":2519.13,"body":"we're going to have to tackle"},{"startTime":2516.61,"endTime":2519.13,"body":"the issue of Scottish nationalism"},{"startTime":2519.13,"endTime":2520.54,"body":"one day or another,"},{"startTime":2520.54,"endTime":2523.36,"body":"I guess with another"},{"startTime":2520.54,"endTime":2523.36,"body":"independence referendum."},{"startTime":2523.36,"endTime":2525.22,"body":"I don't think that's going to happen soon,"},{"startTime":2525.22,"endTime":2526.18,"body":"but I think, you know,"},{"startTime":2526.18,"endTime":2530.23,"body":"if Scotland continues to vote"},{"startTime":2526.18,"endTime":2530.23,"body":"in its own elections for that,"},{"startTime":2530.23,"endTime":2533.65,"body":"one day or another Westminster"},{"startTime":2530.23,"endTime":2533.65,"body":"will have to face it."},{"startTime":2533.65,"endTime":2535.9,"body":"It's a huge question and I"},{"startTime":2533.65,"endTime":2535.9,"body":"think it's going to be settled"},{"startTime":2535.9,"endTime":2537.0,"body":"in decades, not years."},{"startTime":2543.49,"endTime":2544.87,"body":"- [Audience Member] It is likely"},{"startTime":2544.87,"endTime":2548.68,"body":"that in the November midterms"},{"startTime":2548.68,"endTime":2553.68,"body":"that Donald Trump will win a"},{"startTime":2548.68,"endTime":2553.68,"body":"landslide victory in America."},{"startTime":2555.1,"endTime":2557.95,"body":"Now Donald Trump has already made it clear"},{"startTime":2557.95,"endTime":2562.95,"body":"that he is a supporter and"},{"startTime":2557.95,"endTime":2562.95,"body":"an admirer of President Putin"},{"startTime":2563.35,"endTime":2566.74,"body":"and he is against us supporting"},{"startTime":2566.74,"endTime":2568.63,"body":"and egging on Zelensky"},{"startTime":2568.63,"endTime":2571.3,"body":"and his corrupt regime in Ukraine"},{"startTime":2571.3,"endTime":2574.45,"body":"in war mongering against Russia."},{"startTime":2574.45,"endTime":2578.44,"body":"Now what my question is has Donald Trump,"},{"startTime":2578.44,"endTime":2581.751,"body":"perhaps behind the scenes"},{"startTime":2578.44,"endTime":2581.751,"body":"but perhaps also in public,"},{"startTime":2581.751,"endTime":2585.19,"body":"already instructed Liz Truss,"},{"startTime":2585.19,"endTime":2589.6,"body":"the GCHQ, MI6, the European Union,"},{"startTime":2589.6,"endTime":2591.52,"body":"indeed perhaps NATO,"},{"startTime":2591.52,"endTime":2595.543,"body":"to stop war mongering against Russia?"},{"startTime":2596.65,"endTime":2598.57,"body":"- Okay, alright, thank you."},{"startTime":2598.57,"endTime":2601.69,"body":"I mean, there are so many"},{"startTime":2598.57,"endTime":2601.69,"body":"assumptions in your question"},{"startTime":2601.69,"endTime":2603.433,"body":"that I can't tackle all of them."},{"startTime":2604.63,"endTime":2607.15,"body":"First of all, no, I don't"},{"startTime":2604.63,"endTime":2607.15,"body":"think it's at all certain"},{"startTime":2607.15,"endTime":2610.81,"body":"that Donald Trump's"},{"startTime":2607.15,"endTime":2610.81,"body":"party or people he backs"},{"startTime":2610.81,"endTime":2613.723,"body":"will secure a landslide"},{"startTime":2610.81,"endTime":2613.723,"body":"in the midterm elections."},{"startTime":2615.16,"endTime":2616.99,"body":"Until recently, the polling"},{"startTime":2615.16,"endTime":2616.99,"body":"was showing, actually,"},{"startTime":2616.99,"endTime":2619.3,"body":"that President Biden and"},{"startTime":2616.99,"endTime":2619.3,"body":"the Democrats candidates"},{"startTime":2619.3,"endTime":2620.5,"body":"were doing better."},{"startTime":2620.5,"endTime":2621.55,"body":"So let's see the result,"},{"startTime":2621.55,"endTime":2624.183,"body":"I think it'll be much closer"},{"startTime":2621.55,"endTime":2624.183,"body":"than you are suggesting."},{"startTime":2625.57,"endTime":2628.27,"body":"Donald Trump doesn't"},{"startTime":2625.57,"endTime":2628.27,"body":"instruct anyone over here"},{"startTime":2628.27,"endTime":2630.49,"body":"and nor would he if he was president."},{"startTime":2630.49,"endTime":2633.34,"body":"I think there is certainly an"},{"startTime":2630.49,"endTime":2633.34,"body":"issue if he became president,"},{"startTime":2633.34,"endTime":2635.38,"body":"where would that leave"},{"startTime":2633.34,"endTime":2635.38,"body":"Western strategy on Ukraine?"},{"startTime":2635.38,"endTime":2636.85,"body":"Of course that's two years away"},{"startTime":2636.85,"endTime":2640.18,"body":"and I hope we will have"},{"startTime":2636.85,"endTime":2640.18,"body":"got to this sort of"},{"startTime":2640.18,"endTime":2642.73,"body":"armistice situation that"},{"startTime":2640.18,"endTime":2642.73,"body":"I've been talking about."},{"startTime":2642.73,"endTime":2644.465,"body":"And I think,"},{"startTime":2644.465,"endTime":2645.85,"body":"I suspect I'm not alone in the room"},{"startTime":2645.85,"endTime":2648.49,"body":"in contesting what you say about Zelensky."},{"startTime":2648.49,"endTime":2651.73,"body":"Zelensky was attacked by Russia"},{"startTime":2651.73,"endTime":2654.79,"body":"and Ukraine has responded"},{"startTime":2651.73,"endTime":2654.79,"body":"very bravely and courageously"},{"startTime":2654.79,"endTime":2656.08,"body":"fighting for their freedom,"},{"startTime":2656.08,"endTime":2658.12,"body":"and I think they've"},{"startTime":2656.08,"endTime":2658.12,"body":"got very strong support"},{"startTime":2658.12,"endTime":2659.751,"body":"in this country for that."},{"startTime":2659.751,"endTime":2662.64,"body":"(audience applauds)"},{"startTime":2662.64,"endTime":2665.39,"body":"- Over this side, and then there."},{"startTime":2667.267,"endTime":2669.25,"body":"- [Audience Member] Hi, I'm"},{"startTime":2667.267,"endTime":2669.25,"body":"from Mulberry School for Girls"},{"startTime":2669.25,"endTime":2670.63,"body":"and my question is,"},{"startTime":2670.63,"endTime":2671.89,"body":"how concerned should we be"},{"startTime":2671.89,"endTime":2674.08,"body":"about the situation in North Korea?"},{"startTime":2674.08,"endTime":2675.13,"body":"In your opinion,"},{"startTime":2675.13,"endTime":2676.99,"body":"is a solution possible"},{"startTime":2676.99,"endTime":2679.873,"body":"with China and Russia's blocking of votes?"},{"startTime":2681.07,"endTime":2682.592,"body":"- So the situation in North Korea?"},{"startTime":2682.592,"endTime":2685.33,"body":"- Yes."},{"startTime":2682.592,"endTime":2685.33,"body":"- And Russia and China,"},{"startTime":2685.33,"endTime":2687.107,"body":"could you just repeat?"},{"startTime":2687.107,"endTime":2687.94,"body":"- [Audience Member] In you are opinion,"},{"startTime":2687.94,"endTime":2689.23,"body":"is a UN solution possible"},{"startTime":2689.23,"endTime":2692.53,"body":"with Russia and China's blocking of votes?"},{"startTime":2692.53,"endTime":2694.423,"body":"- In the Security Council, blocking."},{"startTime":2695.74,"endTime":2698.02,"body":"- I mean, there hasn't been"},{"startTime":2695.74,"endTime":2698.02,"body":"a solution in North Korea"},{"startTime":2698.02,"endTime":2699.76,"body":"for 80 years"},{"startTime":2699.76,"endTime":2702.373,"body":"and I don't think there's"},{"startTime":2699.76,"endTime":2702.373,"body":"one imminent now, no."},{"startTime":2703.42,"endTime":2705.25,"body":"I think we have to all live with the fact"},{"startTime":2705.25,"endTime":2707.89,"body":"that North Korea now has nuclear weapons."},{"startTime":2707.89,"endTime":2710.74,"body":"There's not much point"},{"startTime":2707.89,"endTime":2710.74,"body":"in pretending they don't."},{"startTime":2710.74,"endTime":2713.17,"body":"But I think rather, like"},{"startTime":2710.74,"endTime":2713.17,"body":"I was saying with Russia,"},{"startTime":2713.17,"endTime":2717.1,"body":"I think their intention is to"},{"startTime":2713.17,"endTime":2717.1,"body":"use them to frighten people"},{"startTime":2717.1,"endTime":2720.67,"body":"and to increase their"},{"startTime":2717.1,"endTime":2720.67,"body":"weight in negotiating"},{"startTime":2720.67,"endTime":2723.46,"body":"because they are a nuclear weapon power."},{"startTime":2723.46,"endTime":2724.69,"body":"Bear in mind that they are"},{"startTime":2724.69,"endTime":2727.75,"body":"very, very dependent on"},{"startTime":2724.69,"endTime":2727.75,"body":"China still in many ways"},{"startTime":2727.75,"endTime":2730.93,"body":"and the Chinese will be"},{"startTime":2727.75,"endTime":2730.93,"body":"the first to act to stop"},{"startTime":2730.93,"endTime":2732.07,"body":"if there's any sign of them"},{"startTime":2732.07,"endTime":2734.53,"body":"looking like they're going"},{"startTime":2732.07,"endTime":2734.53,"body":"to use nuclear weapons."},{"startTime":2734.53,"endTime":2736.4,"body":"So I think the standoff will continue"},{"startTime":2737.552,"endTime":2739.9,"body":"for as long as the North Korean regime"},{"startTime":2739.9,"endTime":2742.87,"body":"have this mindset that"},{"startTime":2739.9,"endTime":2742.87,"body":"the world is against them"},{"startTime":2742.87,"endTime":2744.58,"body":"and that their only way forward"},{"startTime":2744.58,"endTime":2748.84,"body":"is to threaten and menace and intimidate"},{"startTime":2748.84,"endTime":2750.7,"body":"in order to try and get their way."},{"startTime":2750.7,"endTime":2753.31,"body":"Maybe one day there'll be a"},{"startTime":2750.7,"endTime":2753.31,"body":"new generation in North Korea"},{"startTime":2753.31,"endTime":2754.36,"body":"who will see things differently,"},{"startTime":2754.36,"endTime":2757.06,"body":"but I think we are in for"},{"startTime":2754.36,"endTime":2757.06,"body":"a continuing long standoff"},{"startTime":2757.06,"endTime":2758.02,"body":"in North Korea,"},{"startTime":2758.02,"endTime":2762.07,"body":"but not I think any significant threat"},{"startTime":2762.07,"endTime":2764.32,"body":"of them actually using"},{"startTime":2762.07,"endTime":2764.32,"body":"these nuclear weapons."},{"startTime":2767.2,"endTime":2768.28,"body":"- [Audience Member] Hi."},{"startTime":2768.28,"endTime":2771.733,"body":"Thank you for a really fascinating"},{"startTime":2768.28,"endTime":2771.733,"body":"tour of foreign policy."},{"startTime":2772.63,"endTime":2775.61,"body":"My question is really about"},{"startTime":2777.22,"endTime":2778.573,"body":"influence at home."},{"startTime":2780.25,"endTime":2782.17,"body":"London is the laundromat,"},{"startTime":2782.17,"endTime":2783.85,"body":"it's full of full of Russian money."},{"startTime":2783.85,"endTime":2786.34,"body":"There have been a sanctions"},{"startTime":2783.85,"endTime":2786.34,"body":"that have have been implemented,"},{"startTime":2786.34,"endTime":2788.3,"body":"but there are questions about how well"},{"startTime":2790.656,"endTime":2793.12,"body":"and the coverage of those sanctions."},{"startTime":2793.12,"endTime":2797.533,"body":"China is purchasing the services"},{"startTime":2793.12,"endTime":2797.533,"body":"of former British pilots."},{"startTime":2799.03,"endTime":2802.75,"body":"So how well are we positioned"},{"startTime":2802.75,"endTime":2805.81,"body":"to counter the influence"},{"startTime":2805.81,"endTime":2810.81,"body":"of unfriendly nations here at home?"},{"startTime":2811.69,"endTime":2814.24,"body":"- Well, I think it's a very,"},{"startTime":2811.69,"endTime":2814.24,"body":"very important question,"},{"startTime":2814.24,"endTime":2815.59,"body":"and the answer I think is that"},{"startTime":2815.59,"endTime":2818.593,"body":"we have been asleep at"},{"startTime":2815.59,"endTime":2818.593,"body":"the switch for too long."},{"startTime":2819.58,"endTime":2823.06,"body":"Accepting London as a major base"},{"startTime":2823.06,"endTime":2825.58,"body":"for yeah, hot money,"},{"startTime":2825.58,"endTime":2828.013,"body":"for money laundering, for oligarchs,"},{"startTime":2829.24,"endTime":2833.828,"body":"and others parking their money quietly,"},{"startTime":2833.828,"endTime":2837.37,"body":"and the subversive intentions"},{"startTime":2837.37,"endTime":2839.44,"body":"of countries like Russia and China."},{"startTime":2839.44,"endTime":2840.79,"body":"I mean, the very, very large number"},{"startTime":2840.79,"endTime":2842.98,"body":"of Chinese students at"},{"startTime":2840.79,"endTime":2842.98,"body":"British universities"},{"startTime":2842.98,"endTime":2844.93,"body":"is in one way a welcomed thing,"},{"startTime":2844.93,"endTime":2847.39,"body":"but what are they up to many of them?"},{"startTime":2847.39,"endTime":2848.62,"body":"And you know, are we,"},{"startTime":2848.62,"endTime":2849.82,"body":"do we have have our defenses up"},{"startTime":2849.82,"endTime":2851.694,"body":"to protect our intellectual property"},{"startTime":2851.694,"endTime":2853.713,"body":"and our technology secrets and so on?"},{"startTime":2853.713,"endTime":2857.02,"body":"I think by and large now"},{"startTime":2853.713,"endTime":2857.02,"body":"there has been no up to now."},{"startTime":2857.02,"endTime":2858.91,"body":"On Russian money,"},{"startTime":2858.91,"endTime":2862.12,"body":"the Ukraine war has made it"},{"startTime":2858.91,"endTime":2862.12,"body":"much, much more controversial,"},{"startTime":2862.12,"endTime":2864.58,"body":"of course, to be handling Russian money."},{"startTime":2864.58,"endTime":2867.13,"body":"And we've seen sanctions"},{"startTime":2864.58,"endTime":2867.13,"body":"on oligarch assets"},{"startTime":2867.13,"endTime":2868.66,"body":"and we've seen a change in the law"},{"startTime":2868.66,"endTime":2870.28,"body":"to make it easier to know"},{"startTime":2870.28,"endTime":2873.19,"body":"who is the beneficial owner"},{"startTime":2870.28,"endTime":2873.19,"body":"of property in the UK,"},{"startTime":2873.19,"endTime":2876.85,"body":"which was always a very"},{"startTime":2873.19,"endTime":2876.85,"body":"useful place to hide money."},{"startTime":2876.85,"endTime":2877.683,"body":"So I think"},{"startTime":2879.67,"endTime":2881.323,"body":"the climate is changing on that."},{"startTime":2882.22,"endTime":2885.07,"body":"On China also, maybe"},{"startTime":2882.22,"endTime":2885.07,"body":"people are not aware of it,"},{"startTime":2885.07,"endTime":2889.15,"body":"but there's quite a lot of"},{"startTime":2885.07,"endTime":2889.15,"body":"Chinese influence buying goes on"},{"startTime":2889.15,"endTime":2890.083,"body":"I think as well."},{"startTime":2890.92,"endTime":2894.22,"body":"The best way to tackle this"},{"startTime":2890.92,"endTime":2894.22,"body":"is to call it out, actually."},{"startTime":2894.22,"endTime":2897.85,"body":"And the more exposure there"},{"startTime":2894.22,"endTime":2897.85,"body":"is of what's going on,"},{"startTime":2897.85,"endTime":2899.743,"body":"of who may be being funded,"},{"startTime":2900.67,"endTime":2902.32,"body":"you know, what the intentions are"},{"startTime":2902.32,"endTime":2905.11,"body":"of those who are buying"},{"startTime":2902.32,"endTime":2905.11,"body":"influence in the UK,"},{"startTime":2905.11,"endTime":2907.66,"body":"I mean, that's a very effective way"},{"startTime":2907.66,"endTime":2911.383,"body":"of reducing the effectiveness"},{"startTime":2907.66,"endTime":2911.383,"body":"of efforts to subvert,"},{"startTime":2912.37,"endTime":2914.95,"body":"to spread disinformation,"},{"startTime":2914.95,"endTime":2917.86,"body":"or to buy influence and support."},{"startTime":2917.86,"endTime":2920.89,"body":"And I think the price for"},{"startTime":2917.86,"endTime":2920.89,"body":"those who are taking money"},{"startTime":2920.89,"endTime":2921.85,"body":"from these sort of people"},{"startTime":2921.85,"endTime":2923.17,"body":"is going up all the time."},{"startTime":2923.17,"endTime":2924.003,"body":"So, you know,"},{"startTime":2924.003,"endTime":2927.61,"body":"as usual I think publicity"},{"startTime":2924.003,"endTime":2927.61,"body":"is a disinfectant here."},{"startTime":2927.61,"endTime":2929.47,"body":"- We need to spread questions"},{"startTime":2927.61,"endTime":2929.47,"body":"a bit around the room."},{"startTime":2929.47,"endTime":2931.09,"body":"Can I take one down here?"},{"startTime":2931.09,"endTime":2934.103,"body":"- [Audience Member] So thank"},{"startTime":2931.09,"endTime":2934.103,"body":"you very much for your talk."},{"startTime":2934.103,"endTime":2936.67,"body":"I want to ask a question"},{"startTime":2934.103,"endTime":2936.67,"body":"about a disruptor state"},{"startTime":2936.67,"endTime":2939.91,"body":"which hasn't appeared"},{"startTime":2936.67,"endTime":2939.91,"body":"yet in your conversation,"},{"startTime":2939.91,"endTime":2944.53,"body":"although we have seen them"},{"startTime":2939.91,"endTime":2944.53,"body":"supplying kamikaze drones"},{"startTime":2944.53,"endTime":2947.503,"body":"to the Russians over the last few weeks."},{"startTime":2948.76,"endTime":2951.61,"body":"I speak with a kind of"},{"startTime":2948.76,"endTime":2951.61,"body":"skin in the game as it were"},{"startTime":2951.61,"endTime":2953.89,"body":"because I'm about to run"},{"startTime":2951.61,"endTime":2953.89,"body":"a conference next month"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2953.89,"endTime":2956.14,"body":"What Next?\""},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2956.14,"endTime":2960.22,"body":"in light of what's happening"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2956.14,"endTime":2960.22,"body":"in the streets of that country"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2960.22,"endTime":2964.03,"body":"and indeed in terms of"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2960.22,"endTime":2964.03,"body":"demonstrations in this city"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2964.03,"endTime":2967.63,"body":"against what the Iranian"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2964.03,"endTime":2967.63,"body":"regime have been doing"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2967.63,"endTime":2969.07,"body":"to their own people."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2969.07,"endTime":2972.91,"body":"So I suppose my question"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2969.07,"endTime":2972.91,"body":"for you is Iran, what next,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2972.91,"endTime":2977.65,"body":"and what can the West"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2972.91,"endTime":2977.65,"body":"collectively do about that?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2977.65,"endTime":2981.34,"body":"- Well, yes, that's a really"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2977.65,"endTime":2981.34,"body":"interesting one, isn't it?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2981.34,"endTime":2986.17,"body":"Haven't the young women"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2981.34,"endTime":2986.17,"body":"and girls been courageous"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2986.17,"endTime":2988.93,"body":"in the way they've stood up to repression?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2988.93,"endTime":2991.9,"body":"I mean, it's been absolutely extraordinary"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2991.9,"endTime":2994.06,"body":"and humbling in a way"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2994.06,"endTime":2996.04,"body":"to see it's been the young women"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2996.04,"endTime":2998.2,"body":"who have risen up against the regime,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":2998.2,"endTime":3000.019,"body":"and who would've thought of that?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3000.019,"endTime":3002.55,"body":"So, I mean, that makes me a bit humble"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3002.55,"endTime":3004.53,"body":"in trying to suggest"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3002.55,"endTime":3004.53,"body":"what might happen next"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3004.53,"endTime":3006.99,"body":"because nobody predicted that."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3006.99,"endTime":3008.55,"body":"And it's so often the case, isn't it,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3008.55,"endTime":3010.89,"body":"that these sort of popular uprisings"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3010.89,"endTime":3013.86,"body":"are provoked by just one incident"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3013.86,"endTime":3015.3,"body":"that cuts through"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3015.3,"endTime":3017.58,"body":"and stimulates and inspires people."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3017.58,"endTime":3020.76,"body":"I'm thinking of the Tunisian fruit seller"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3020.76,"endTime":3022.02,"body":"who set himself on fire"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3022.02,"endTime":3024.93,"body":"and set off the Tunisian revolution."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3024.93,"endTime":3026.58,"body":"And I think, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3027.48,"endTime":3029.19,"body":"how this young lady was treated in jail"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3029.19,"endTime":3030.73,"body":"just became the trigger"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3031.59,"endTime":3033.0,"body":"therefore for a lot of anger"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3033.0,"endTime":3035.7,"body":"and a lot of opposition under the surface."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3035.7,"endTime":3040.26,"body":"Will it overthrow the theocratic regime"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3040.26,"endTime":3043.14,"body":"and its very, very"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3040.26,"endTime":3043.14,"body":"powerful security forces?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3043.14,"endTime":3045.183,"body":"I mean, not immediately, I don't think."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3046.14,"endTime":3048.27,"body":"But, you know, if young women can do this"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3048.27,"endTime":3050.46,"body":"then perhaps others in"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3048.27,"endTime":3050.46,"body":"society can as well."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3050.46,"endTime":3053.13,"body":"I think it must have"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3050.46,"endTime":3053.13,"body":"worried them all at least."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3053.13,"endTime":3054.18,"body":"And they are of course suffering"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3054.18,"endTime":3056.61,"body":"from pretty draconian Western sanctions,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3056.61,"endTime":3060.03,"body":"and so a lot of, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3056.61,"endTime":3060.03,"body":"basic commodities of life"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3060.03,"endTime":3061.08,"body":"are difficult to get,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3061.08,"endTime":3063.66,"body":"inflation is very high,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3061.08,"endTime":3063.66,"body":"the economy is weak,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3063.66,"endTime":3066.78,"body":"they're selling their oil"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3063.66,"endTime":3066.78,"body":"mainly to China, I think."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3066.78,"endTime":3070.65,"body":"So with Chinese help they"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3066.78,"endTime":3070.65,"body":"can no doubt struggle on"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3070.65,"endTime":3072.27,"body":"for some more years,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3072.27,"endTime":3074.64,"body":"but it must be a serious wake up call."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3074.64,"endTime":3076.2,"body":"What can the West do?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3076.2,"endTime":3079.53,"body":"I mean, to try and interfere in"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3079.53,"endTime":3082.08,"body":"or let's say influence"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3079.53,"endTime":3082.08,"body":"opinion inside Iran,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3082.08,"endTime":3083.94,"body":"very difficult, I think."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3083.94,"endTime":3085.44,"body":"If we could negotiate an agreement"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3085.44,"endTime":3088.11,"body":"which gave us oversight of"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3085.44,"endTime":3088.11,"body":"their nuclear weapon program,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3088.11,"endTime":3090.12,"body":"which we've been trying to do for years,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3090.12,"endTime":3093.0,"body":"subject to Donald Trump"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3090.12,"endTime":3093.0,"body":"making it more difficult,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3093.0,"endTime":3094.74,"body":"that would be help."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3094.74,"endTime":3096.21,"body":"Keeping up sanctions on the regime"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3096.21,"endTime":3098.793,"body":"and also finding ways to"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3096.21,"endTime":3098.793,"body":"support civil society,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3100.23,"endTime":3101.91,"body":"you know, through people-to-people link,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3101.91,"endTime":3104.04,"body":"through bringing people out of Iran,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3104.04,"endTime":3105.69,"body":"through supporting some of these"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3105.69,"endTime":3107.91,"body":"brave civil society groups inside Iran."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3107.91,"endTime":3111.27,"body":"But honestly, influencing a"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3107.91,"endTime":3111.27,"body":"country's internal affairs"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3111.27,"endTime":3113.88,"body":"from outside when you don't"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3111.27,"endTime":3113.88,"body":"have much of a presence there"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3113.88,"endTime":3115.44,"body":"is difficult in any country,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3115.44,"endTime":3118.11,"body":"and I think it's probably"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3115.44,"endTime":3118.11,"body":"particularly difficult in Iran."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3118.11,"endTime":3119.873,"body":"So in the end, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3119.873,"endTime":3122.22,"body":"I think it's going to be the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3119.873,"endTime":3122.22,"body":"Iranian people themselves"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3122.22,"endTime":3124.44,"body":"who find a way of"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3122.22,"endTime":3124.44,"body":"throwing off this regime."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3124.44,"endTime":3126.03,"body":"Can't come soon enough, can it?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3126.03,"endTime":3127.14,"body":"- A bigger defense lecture,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3127.14,"endTime":3129.0,"body":"I think we need to a defense voice."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3129.0,"endTime":3130.0,"body":"Okay, your question."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3133.26,"endTime":3135.9,"body":"- [Audience Member] President"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3133.26,"endTime":3135.9,"body":"Macron has often indicated"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3135.9,"endTime":3139.14,"body":"that there should be a European army."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3139.14,"endTime":3140.91,"body":"Do you think he now realizes"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3140.91,"endTime":3144.363,"body":"that Europe's best defense"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3140.91,"endTime":3144.363,"body":"really is with NATO?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3146.4,"endTime":3149.7,"body":"- Yeah, I'm not sure that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3146.4,"endTime":3149.7,"body":"Macron really believes"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3149.7,"endTime":3150.87,"body":"in a European army."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3150.87,"endTime":3153.003,"body":"I think he has once or twice said it."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3154.08,"endTime":3156.48,"body":"But the French, as you probably know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3156.48,"endTime":3158.53,"body":"are, you know, the most"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3160.77,"endTime":3162.87,"body":"touchy about their national sovereignty"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3162.87,"endTime":3166.32,"body":"attached to the independence"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3162.87,"endTime":3166.32,"body":"of their armed forces"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3166.32,"endTime":3167.72,"body":"and their nuclear deterrent,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3168.57,"endTime":3172.02,"body":"and wouldn't for a moment think"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3168.57,"endTime":3172.02,"body":"of diluting the French army"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3172.02,"endTime":3173.34,"body":"in a European army."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3173.34,"endTime":3175.86,"body":"So I don't believe for"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3173.34,"endTime":3175.86,"body":"a moment that that's,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3175.86,"endTime":3178.35,"body":"I think the smaller European countries"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3178.35,"endTime":3179.82,"body":"with weak armed forces"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3179.82,"endTime":3182.22,"body":"have sometimes seen an advantage"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3182.22,"endTime":3184.62,"body":"in promoting the idea of a European army,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3184.62,"endTime":3186.54,"body":"which would give them a small stake"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3186.54,"endTime":3188.52,"body":"in a larger organization."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3188.52,"endTime":3190.09,"body":"But it is completely"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3191.7,"endTime":3193.65,"body":"inconceivable in my view"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3193.65,"endTime":3197.94,"body":"that the EU would have an"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3193.65,"endTime":3197.94,"body":"integrated army of its own."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3197.94,"endTime":3199.8,"body":"I mean the EU is, as you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3199.8,"endTime":3203.094,"body":"is set up to be a legislating body."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3203.094,"endTime":3207.15,"body":"It's an endless arguments"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3203.094,"endTime":3207.15,"body":"about legal bases,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3207.15,"endTime":3209.22,"body":"it has the Commission,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3207.15,"endTime":3209.22,"body":"it has the Parliament,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3209.22,"endTime":3211.29,"body":"has the Court of Justice."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3211.29,"endTime":3212.94,"body":"All of this is good if you're making laws,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3212.94,"endTime":3214.02,"body":"it's absolutely useless"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3214.02,"endTime":3216.36,"body":"if you were trying to"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3214.02,"endTime":3216.36,"body":"run military operations."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3216.36,"endTime":3219.84,"body":"And what NATO has is the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3216.36,"endTime":3219.84,"body":"integrated military structure,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3219.84,"endTime":3222.69,"body":"it has a Supreme Allied"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3219.84,"endTime":3222.69,"body":"Commander who takes over"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3222.69,"endTime":3225.12,"body":"if NATO goes into conflict, as you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3225.12,"endTime":3227.85,"body":"and is, you know, is"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3225.12,"endTime":3227.85,"body":"geared for military action."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3227.85,"endTime":3229.74,"body":"The EU is absolutely not."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3229.74,"endTime":3233.16,"body":"So I've never believed this"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3229.74,"endTime":3233.16,"body":"talk of a European army."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3233.16,"endTime":3237.69,"body":"That the Europeans should do"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3233.16,"endTime":3237.69,"body":"more to contribute to NATO"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3237.69,"endTime":3239.31,"body":"and improve their own armed forces"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3239.31,"endTime":3241.83,"body":"to use outside NATO if they want to, yes."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3241.83,"endTime":3245.217,"body":"But any idea of an"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3241.83,"endTime":3245.217,"body":"integrated European army, no."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3245.217,"endTime":3247.05,"body":"- The voice of the young again."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3247.05,"endTime":3248.719,"body":"I'll come to you in a moment."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3248.719,"endTime":3249.552,"body":"- [Audience Member] Hello,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3249.552,"endTime":3251.67,"body":"I'm Abida from Mulberry School for Girls."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3251.67,"endTime":3254.76,"body":"So we are in a cost of living crisis."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3254.76,"endTime":3258.0,"body":"Are my taxes about to rise"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3254.76,"endTime":3258.0,"body":"to pay for defense spending,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3258.0,"endTime":3259.599,"body":"and should they?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3259.599,"endTime":3262.5,"body":"(audience and presenter laugh)"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3262.5,"endTime":3265.95,"body":"- Wow, got me there."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3262.5,"endTime":3265.95,"body":"- Your question?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3265.95,"endTime":3266.79,"body":"- Well, first of all,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3266.79,"endTime":3269.73,"body":"taxes are not being cut"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3269.73,"endTime":3271.955,"body":"because the government"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3269.73,"endTime":3271.955,"body":"ran into a brick wall"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3271.955,"endTime":3274.35,"body":"with the financial"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3271.955,"endTime":3274.35,"body":"markets, as you've seen,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3274.35,"endTime":3277.563,"body":"and our new chancellor has put"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3274.35,"endTime":3277.563,"body":"them back to where they were."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3278.7,"endTime":3280.05,"body":"But it's a very good question."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3280.05,"endTime":3283.38,"body":"If we're going to raise"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3280.05,"endTime":3283.38,"body":"spending on the national health,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3283.38,"endTime":3285.63,"body":"if we're going to raise"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3283.38,"endTime":3285.63,"body":"spending on defense,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3285.63,"endTime":3288.99,"body":"if we're going to raise"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3285.63,"endTime":3288.99,"body":"spending on social care,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3288.99,"endTime":3290.76,"body":"the money's got to come from somewhere."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3290.76,"endTime":3292.65,"body":"And in the end it either has to come"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3292.65,"endTime":3296.013,"body":"from borrowing on the markets or taxes."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3297.06,"endTime":3300.66,"body":"I would say a little bit"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3297.06,"endTime":3300.66,"body":"more on people's taxes"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3300.66,"endTime":3303.96,"body":"to be sure we are safe and"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3300.66,"endTime":3303.96,"body":"secure in this dangerous world"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3303.96,"endTime":3305.103,"body":"would be a good cause."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3306.3,"endTime":3309.36,"body":"But I'm not a politician that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3306.3,"endTime":3309.36,"body":"has to sell that to people."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3309.36,"endTime":3310.23,"body":"In the end,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3310.23,"endTime":3311.88,"body":"I think it is,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3311.88,"endTime":3313.44,"body":"the most important thing"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3311.88,"endTime":3313.44,"body":"is that the country"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3313.44,"endTime":3314.85,"body":"should be safe and secure"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3314.85,"endTime":3317.19,"body":"and should have the armed"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3314.85,"endTime":3317.19,"body":"forces that can keep us safe."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3317.19,"endTime":3319.08,"body":"And if that means spending"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3317.19,"endTime":3319.08,"body":"a bit more on defense,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3319.08,"endTime":3322.26,"body":"then I think politicians"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3319.08,"endTime":3322.26,"body":"should be making the case"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3322.26,"endTime":3323.67,"body":"to all of your taxpayers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3323.67,"endTime":3325.77,"body":"that that is worth paying."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3325.77,"endTime":3327.93,"body":"Equally they need to be"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3325.77,"endTime":3327.93,"body":"thinking how to raise money"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3327.93,"endTime":3330.45,"body":"for properly funding the NHS"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3327.93,"endTime":3330.45,"body":"and other things as well,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3330.45,"endTime":3332.82,"body":"so it's going to be very difficult."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3332.82,"endTime":3334.233,"body":"But it shows, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3334.233,"endTime":3335.97,"body":"it shows how shortsighted"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3334.233,"endTime":3335.97,"body":"the government were"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3335.97,"endTime":3337.65,"body":"in thinking that they could cut taxes"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3337.65,"endTime":3339.78,"body":"as well as do all this good stuff"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3339.78,"endTime":3343.62,"body":"to help us with energy prices"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3339.78,"endTime":3343.62,"body":"and with the NHS and so on."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3343.62,"endTime":3346.53,"body":"But yes, I would like to"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3343.62,"endTime":3346.53,"body":"see a bit more increase"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3346.53,"endTime":3349.44,"body":"a bit more in defense spending"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3349.44,"endTime":3352.11,"body":"because the world has got more dangerous"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3352.11,"endTime":3354.6,"body":"and our armed forces are"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3352.11,"endTime":3354.6,"body":"not frankly really ready"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3354.6,"endTime":3355.98,"body":"for that challenge yet."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3355.98,"endTime":3357.63,"body":"- [Audience Member] Gladstone emboldens me"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3357.63,"endTime":3359.37,"body":"to take you a bit off piece."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3359.37,"endTime":3362.67,"body":"I like the dictum about"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3359.37,"endTime":3362.67,"body":"good foreign policy"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3362.67,"endTime":3364.683,"body":"beginning with good government at home."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3365.64,"endTime":3366.93,"body":"It was in the 70s, I think,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3366.93,"endTime":3369.99,"body":"that Quintin Hogg"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3366.93,"endTime":3369.99,"body":"commented rather presently"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3369.99,"endTime":3372.42,"body":"on the rise of what he called"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3369.99,"endTime":3372.42,"body":"the elective dictatorship,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3372.42,"endTime":3376.11,"body":"the concentration of power in Number 10."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3376.11,"endTime":3377.37,"body":"And in the House of Lords we have"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3377.37,"endTime":3381.84,"body":"the second largest legislative"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3377.37,"endTime":3381.84,"body":"chamber in the world,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3381.84,"endTime":3384.368,"body":"after the Chinese National"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3381.84,"endTime":3384.368,"body":"People's Congress-"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3384.368,"endTime":3386.76,"body":"- Kind of you to remind us of that."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3386.76,"endTime":3390.06,"body":"- Do you see a place for"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3386.76,"endTime":3390.06,"body":"constitutional reform in the UK"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3390.06,"endTime":3391.113,"body":"in the years to come?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3392.49,"endTime":3395.061,"body":"- Oh, I mustn't touch the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3392.49,"endTime":3395.061,"body":"House of Lords, no no no."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3395.061,"endTime":3396.93,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3396.93,"endTime":3398.883,"body":"Yes, I do, I do, absolutely."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3400.47,"endTime":3403.11,"body":"I've been very struck"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3400.47,"endTime":3403.11,"body":"over the last decade or so"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3403.11,"endTime":3406.26,"body":"by the powers of the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3403.11,"endTime":3406.26,"body":"British Prime Minister"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3406.26,"endTime":3409.26,"body":"who has a working majority"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3406.26,"endTime":3409.26,"body":"in the House of Commons."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3409.26,"endTime":3411.75,"body":"Because we don't have"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3409.26,"endTime":3411.75,"body":"a written constitution"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3411.75,"endTime":3415.35,"body":"and it's all conventions,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3415.35,"endTime":3418.26,"body":"a prime minister can override"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3415.35,"endTime":3418.26,"body":"conventions if he wants to,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3418.26,"endTime":3421.35,"body":"and Boris Johnson was"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3418.26,"endTime":3421.35,"body":"very inclined to do that."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3421.35,"endTime":3423.27,"body":"Indeed I would say a"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3421.35,"endTime":3423.27,"body":"British prime minister"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3423.27,"endTime":3425.4,"body":"with a good majority has more power"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3425.4,"endTime":3427.65,"body":"than most presidents and prime ministers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3427.65,"endTime":3429.21,"body":"in countries with constitutions"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3429.21,"endTime":3430.5,"body":"that have checks and balances,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3430.5,"endTime":3433.14,"body":"you know, that have a constitution saying"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3433.14,"endTime":3434.19,"body":"what the government can do,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3434.19,"endTime":3436.8,"body":"what the role of the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3434.19,"endTime":3436.8,"body":"Supreme Court is and so on."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3436.8,"endTime":3438.15,"body":"We don't have that, really,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3438.15,"endTime":3441.57,"body":"and therefore I think"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3438.15,"endTime":3441.57,"body":"there's a real problem"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3441.57,"endTime":3445.38,"body":"of the dominance of the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3441.57,"endTime":3445.38,"body":"executive over the legislature."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3445.38,"endTime":3448.29,"body":"I think we've seen that a"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3445.38,"endTime":3448.29,"body":"lot in the last few years"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3448.29,"endTime":3451.8,"body":"and all those Covid regulations"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3448.29,"endTime":3451.8,"body":"that were made by ministers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3451.8,"endTime":3454.53,"body":"without consulting"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3451.8,"endTime":3454.53,"body":"Parliament, for example,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3454.53,"endTime":3456.72,"body":"now this bill in the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3454.53,"endTime":3456.72,"body":"Northern Ireland Protocol"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3456.72,"endTime":3459.21,"body":"to give ministers powers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3456.72,"endTime":3459.21,"body":"basically to make laws"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3459.21,"endTime":3461.88,"body":"and to tear up laws if they choose to."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3461.88,"endTime":3463.41,"body":"And I think that that's wrong."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3463.41,"endTime":3465.87,"body":"So I think some rebalancing"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3465.87,"endTime":3467.37,"body":"of the power of the Prime Minister"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3467.37,"endTime":3469.83,"body":"as against the power of"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3467.37,"endTime":3469.83,"body":"Parliament would be good,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3469.83,"endTime":3473.16,"body":"and I think that probably"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3469.83,"endTime":3473.16,"body":"means writing into actual laws"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3473.16,"endTime":3475.98,"body":"some of the things that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3473.16,"endTime":3475.98,"body":"are now conventions."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3475.98,"endTime":3478.2,"body":"You've probably heard Peter Hennessy,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3478.2,"endTime":3480.15,"body":"I've referred to Peter"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3478.2,"endTime":3480.15,"body":"Peter Hennessy's theory,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3480.15,"endTime":3482.19,"body":"is that our constitution works"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3482.19,"endTime":3484.41,"body":"when the good chaps are in charge."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3484.41,"endTime":3485.58,"body":"The good chap theory."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3485.58,"endTime":3487.5,"body":"If it's not good chaps and"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3485.58,"endTime":3487.5,"body":"it's people who are prepared"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3487.5,"endTime":3488.73,"body":"to override conventions,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3488.73,"endTime":3491.43,"body":"then there are no limits, really."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3491.43,"endTime":3493.839,"body":"On the House of Lords, I mean,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3491.43,"endTime":3493.839,"body":"I'm a little bit prejudiced,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3493.839,"endTime":3495.33,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3493.839,"endTime":3495.33,"body":"but I agree."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3495.33,"endTime":3497.19,"body":"I mean, the size is completely ridiculous,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3497.19,"endTime":3498.81,"body":"and you know, I mean,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3497.19,"endTime":3498.81,"body":"the size is ridiculous"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3498.81,"endTime":3500.94,"body":"because prime ministers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3498.81,"endTime":3500.94,"body":"keep appointing people"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3500.94,"endTime":3502.2,"body":"to the House of Lords."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3502.2,"endTime":3505.83,"body":"We had 26 more named last week."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3505.83,"endTime":3508.74,"body":"Okay, I was named to the House of Lords."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3508.74,"endTime":3511.56,"body":"But if you ask people"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3508.74,"endTime":3511.56,"body":"in the House of Lords,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3511.56,"endTime":3512.97,"body":"they would much rather"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3512.97,"endTime":3515.163,"body":"that the thing was slim"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3512.97,"endTime":3515.163,"body":"down significantly."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3516.39,"endTime":3517.71,"body":"And the problem isn't that, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3517.71,"endTime":3519.27,"body":"people would be prepared"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3517.71,"endTime":3519.27,"body":"to retire and so on,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3519.27,"endTime":3521.46,"body":"it's that prime ministers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3519.27,"endTime":3521.46,"body":"keep appointing people."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3521.46,"endTime":3523.89,"body":"And so, you know, that's a real problem."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3523.89,"endTime":3526.95,"body":"But at the end of the day"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3523.89,"endTime":3526.95,"body":"it does a very good job"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3526.95,"endTime":3530.34,"body":"in going through draft laws"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3530.34,"endTime":3532.89,"body":"that come to us from the House"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3530.34,"endTime":3532.89,"body":"of Commons full of rubbish,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3532.89,"endTime":3535.98,"body":"full of errors and in"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3532.89,"endTime":3535.98,"body":"need of real scrutiny,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3535.98,"endTime":3537.9,"body":"and we work days and nights"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3537.9,"endTime":3540.33,"body":"going through line by line the laws,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3540.33,"endTime":3542.58,"body":"sending back to the House of"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3540.33,"endTime":3542.58,"body":"Commons lots of amendments."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3542.58,"endTime":3545.22,"body":"We have judges, we have QCs,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3545.22,"endTime":3548.34,"body":"we have experienced people from"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3545.22,"endTime":3548.34,"body":"all sorts of walks of life,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3548.34,"endTime":3551.4,"body":"and I think we don't do a"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3548.34,"endTime":3551.4,"body":"bad job of scrutinizing."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3551.4,"endTime":3553.8,"body":"Mostly the House of Commons"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3551.4,"endTime":3553.8,"body":"then throws out what we've done"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3553.8,"endTime":3555.29,"body":"and it goes on anyway,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3555.29,"endTime":3557.52,"body":"but nonetheless,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3555.29,"endTime":3557.52,"body":"somebody's got to do that."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3557.52,"endTime":3560.13,"body":"And so if you are going to"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3557.52,"endTime":3560.13,"body":"reform the House of Lords,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3560.13,"endTime":3562.87,"body":"I think to preserve the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3560.13,"endTime":3562.87,"body":"idea it's a place where"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3564.51,"endTime":3566.76,"body":"distinguished people from many,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3564.51,"endTime":3566.76,"body":"many different walks of life"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3566.76,"endTime":3569.79,"body":"come together and bring"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3566.76,"endTime":3569.79,"body":"their different expertise,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3569.79,"endTime":3574.62,"body":"not just 200 more politicians"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3569.79,"endTime":3574.62,"body":"elected in a different way."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3574.62,"endTime":3576.81,"body":"I think if it was just that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3574.62,"endTime":3576.81,"body":"we would lose something."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3576.81,"endTime":3578.987,"body":"- [Audience Member]"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3576.81,"endTime":3578.987,"body":"You've spoken about Brexit"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3578.987,"endTime":3580.41,"body":"and you've certainly"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3578.987,"endTime":3580.41,"body":"spoken about Donald Trump,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3580.41,"endTime":3584.64,"body":"but surely both of those are"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3580.41,"endTime":3584.64,"body":"reflections of the society."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3584.64,"endTime":3587.46,"body":"They both were popular decisions."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3587.46,"endTime":3590.31,"body":"Donald Trump was elected"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3590.31,"endTime":3592.92,"body":"and then he may be elected again."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3592.92,"endTime":3594.63,"body":"But aren't these really reflections"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3594.63,"endTime":3597.57,"body":"of deeply divided societies,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3597.57,"endTime":3600.45,"body":"and how does a deeply divided society"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3600.45,"endTime":3604.89,"body":"come up with a sustained coherent policy"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3604.89,"endTime":3606.6,"body":"without it just getting flipped again"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3606.6,"endTime":3608.7,"body":"in the next four years?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3608.7,"endTime":3611.04,"body":"- Well, yes, I mean, I"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3608.7,"endTime":3611.04,"body":"agree with you, yes, it is."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3611.04,"endTime":3614.76,"body":"Populism is an explosion of anger"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3614.76,"endTime":3619.03,"body":"against what people see"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3614.76,"endTime":3619.03,"body":"as unaccountable elites"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3621.03,"endTime":3624.48,"body":"failing to protect their"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3621.03,"endTime":3624.48,"body":"interests, basically."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3624.48,"endTime":3626.37,"body":"And I mentioned in my talks,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3626.37,"endTime":3628.08,"body":"I think in the case of the UK"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3628.08,"endTime":3630.6,"body":"the experience of Iraq"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3628.08,"endTime":3630.6,"body":"and how that failed,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3630.6,"endTime":3632.37,"body":"the experience of the financial crash"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3632.37,"endTime":3636.03,"body":"and how, you know, the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3632.37,"endTime":3636.03,"body":"disadvantages of that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3636.03,"endTime":3637.14,"body":"were not shared equally,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3637.14,"endTime":3639.57,"body":"all of those things contributed."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3639.57,"endTime":3640.62,"body":"And then on top of that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3640.62,"endTime":3642.64,"body":"I think populism feeds off the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3644.43,"endTime":3647.613,"body":"emotional appeal to identity,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3648.54,"endTime":3650.16,"body":"to quite visceral feelings,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3650.16,"endTime":3653.31,"body":"tribal feelings of I belong to this group"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3653.31,"endTime":3655.35,"body":"and the other group are the enemy"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3655.35,"endTime":3658.473,"body":"and they are to be, you"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3655.35,"endTime":3658.473,"body":"know, to be destroyed."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3660.0,"endTime":3662.43,"body":"Social media I think encourages"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3662.43,"endTime":3664.56,"body":"the polarization of our societies as well"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3664.56,"endTime":3667.71,"body":"and gives populists the platform."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3667.71,"endTime":3669.99,"body":"And of course to say"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3667.71,"endTime":3669.99,"body":"they're populist, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3669.99,"endTime":3671.16,"body":"they can be popular."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3671.16,"endTime":3673.45,"body":"The appeals they make to people's"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3675.12,"endTime":3676.56,"body":"sense of identity,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3676.56,"endTime":3681.15,"body":"emotional appeals, nostalgic"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3676.56,"endTime":3681.15,"body":"appeals to, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3681.15,"endTime":3682.98,"body":"the time when America was great"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3682.98,"endTime":3686.16,"body":"or Britain was the most"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3682.98,"endTime":3686.16,"body":"powerful country in the world,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3686.16,"endTime":3689.37,"body":"all that is popular and can be powerful."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3689.37,"endTime":3692.4,"body":"The problem with populists"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3689.37,"endTime":3692.4,"body":"is when they get into office"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3692.4,"endTime":3694.44,"body":"their recipes don't work"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3694.44,"endTime":3696.93,"body":"and they fairly rapidly become unpopular."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3696.93,"endTime":3698.63,"body":"And that's what happened to Trump,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3699.51,"endTime":3701.13,"body":"is what happened to the British government"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3701.13,"endTime":3702.21,"body":"at the moment here as well."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3702.21,"endTime":3707.21,"body":"So populism tested in"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3702.21,"endTime":3707.21,"body":"trying to govern often fails"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3707.25,"endTime":3709.32,"body":"and then countries can sometimes come back"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3709.32,"endTime":3711.18,"body":"towards a more centrist position."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3711.18,"endTime":3715.95,"body":"But I think it's a challenge"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3711.18,"endTime":3715.95,"body":"to the mainstream politicians,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3715.95,"endTime":3718.77,"body":"to those who do believe that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3715.95,"endTime":3718.77,"body":"there is something called,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3718.77,"endTime":3720.66,"body":"you know, facts and truth,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3720.66,"endTime":3723.69,"body":"and it's not all relative"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3720.66,"endTime":3723.69,"body":"and what you want to believe."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3723.69,"endTime":3726.51,"body":"It's incumbent on them"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3723.69,"endTime":3726.51,"body":"to make a better case,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3726.51,"endTime":3729.42,"body":"to show people that they too are concerned"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3729.42,"endTime":3730.44,"body":"for the welfare of people,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3730.44,"endTime":3733.2,"body":"that they're listening and that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3730.44,"endTime":3733.2,"body":"they're not aloof, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3733.2,"endTime":3736.92,"body":"and that they have answers"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3733.2,"endTime":3736.92,"body":"for people's daily problems."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3736.92,"endTime":3737.91,"body":"'Cause if they fail to do that,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3737.91,"endTime":3739.98,"body":"then it leaves the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3737.91,"endTime":3739.98,"body":"space open to populists."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3739.98,"endTime":3740.813,"body":"- [Audience Member] Thank you."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3740.813,"endTime":3743.31,"body":"My question's really about energy"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3743.31,"endTime":3746.368,"body":"and German links with Russia."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3746.368,"endTime":3750.63,"body":"They've just fired the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3746.368,"endTime":3750.63,"body":"cyber chief today, actually,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3750.63,"endTime":3752.55,"body":"because of excess links with Russia."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3752.55,"endTime":3754.95,"body":"Where did it go wrong in the last 20 years"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3754.95,"endTime":3758.25,"body":"of particularly European"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3754.95,"endTime":3758.25,"body":"German policy towards Russia,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3758.25,"endTime":3760.443,"body":"and particularly the energy policy?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3762.36,"endTime":3764.433,"body":"- Well, yes, long story."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3766.05,"endTime":3770.37,"body":"I think it's part of this kind"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3766.05,"endTime":3770.37,"body":"of German view of the world"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3770.37,"endTime":3775.02,"body":"was that after the Cold War"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3770.37,"endTime":3775.02,"body":"they took the peace dividend,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3775.02,"endTime":3777.39,"body":"they dramatically"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3775.02,"endTime":3777.39,"body":"reduced their arm forces,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3777.39,"endTime":3780.45,"body":"and they concluded that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3777.39,"endTime":3780.45,"body":"German power in the world"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3780.45,"endTime":3783.27,"body":"could be exercised by"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3780.45,"endTime":3783.27,"body":"commercial diplomacy,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3783.27,"endTime":3786.15,"body":"by making and selling great things,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3786.15,"endTime":3790.05,"body":"and by the power of German influence"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3790.05,"endTime":3793.92,"body":"to negotiate in peaceful settlements."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3793.92,"endTime":3795.72,"body":"And I think they applied that, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3795.72,"endTime":3796.86,"body":"everywhere to China,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3796.86,"endTime":3798.18,"body":"very close relationship with China,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3798.18,"endTime":3799.26,"body":"and to Russia."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3799.26,"endTime":3802.53,"body":"And I think that under"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3799.26,"endTime":3802.53,"body":"Chancellor Merkel in particular"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3802.53,"endTime":3804.63,"body":"they felt they had a close understanding,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3804.63,"endTime":3806.49,"body":"that they understood the Russians,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3806.49,"endTime":3808.11,"body":"they knew them,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3808.11,"endTime":3813.11,"body":"they could build a reliable"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3808.11,"endTime":3813.11,"body":"partnership with Russia,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3813.24,"endTime":3815.07,"body":"and that therefore it was safe"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3815.07,"endTime":3817.47,"body":"to become very dependent on Russian gas,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3817.47,"endTime":3819.54,"body":"which was cheap, which was plentiful,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3819.54,"endTime":3822.513,"body":"which helped to fuel the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3819.54,"endTime":3822.513,"body":"German industrial revolution."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3823.5,"endTime":3827.79,"body":"And they didn't do the worst"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3823.5,"endTime":3827.79,"body":"casing of what would happen"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3827.79,"endTime":3831.36,"body":"if there was a sudden"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3827.79,"endTime":3831.36,"body":"change of policy in Russia"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3831.36,"endTime":3833.7,"body":"and the energy dependency became a weapon."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3833.7,"endTime":3835.86,"body":"I think they were warned about that."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3835.86,"endTime":3839.25,"body":"I think Britain, France,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3835.86,"endTime":3839.25,"body":"and others warned Germany."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3839.25,"endTime":3841.5,"body":"But then when Merkel then also removed"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3841.5,"endTime":3843.84,"body":"all the nuclear power after Fukushima,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3843.84,"endTime":3847.41,"body":"she made Germany troubly"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3843.84,"endTime":3847.41,"body":"dependent on Russian gas."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3847.41,"endTime":3849.96,"body":"And with hindsight, that was"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3847.41,"endTime":3849.96,"body":"a massive strategic error."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3849.96,"endTime":3852.93,"body":"But I think it came from"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3849.96,"endTime":3852.93,"body":"a sort of German worldview"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3852.93,"endTime":3855.24,"body":"that basically the world was peaceful now"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3855.24,"endTime":3857.37,"body":"and it was all a question of competition"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3857.37,"endTime":3860.1,"body":"and building commercial links"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3857.37,"endTime":3860.1,"body":"and therefore, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3860.1,"endTime":3863.34,"body":"a close commercial and oil"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3860.1,"endTime":3863.34,"body":"and energy relationship"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3863.34,"endTime":3864.33,"body":"with Russia, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3864.33,"endTime":3867.27,"body":"was part of that anchoring"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3864.33,"endTime":3867.27,"body":"everyone into a pattern"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3867.27,"endTime":3869.76,"body":"of commercial contacts."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3869.76,"endTime":3871.959,"body":"You know, it was a good"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3869.76,"endTime":3871.959,"body":"policy until it wasn't."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3871.959,"endTime":3873.42,"body":"- Two very quick questions, please,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3873.42,"endTime":3875.01,"body":"then we must conclude, sir."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3875.01,"endTime":3877.56,"body":"- [Audience Member] My"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3875.01,"endTime":3877.56,"body":"question was regarding,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3877.56,"endTime":3881.04,"body":"you spoke about collective defense,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3881.04,"endTime":3884.13,"body":"but there are some conflicting"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3881.04,"endTime":3884.13,"body":"interests, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3884.13,"endTime":3885.36,"body":"within the group,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3885.36,"endTime":3887.61,"body":"for example, Hungary."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3887.61,"endTime":3892.23,"body":"Do you think it can be relied"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3887.61,"endTime":3892.23,"body":"upon if there is a problem?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3892.23,"endTime":3895.852,"body":"And also we heard a lot"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3892.23,"endTime":3895.852,"body":"about Finland and Sweden-"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3895.852,"endTime":3898.32,"body":"- Sir, we don't have"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3895.852,"endTime":3898.32,"body":"the time for one more."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3898.32,"endTime":3900.03,"body":"Hungary."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3898.32,"endTime":3900.03,"body":"- Yes."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3900.03,"endTime":3904.05,"body":"Well, I try to say the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3900.03,"endTime":3904.05,"body":"subtlety of the NATO commitment"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3904.05,"endTime":3908.64,"body":"is that it doesn't oblige"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3904.05,"endTime":3908.64,"body":"countries to do anything specific."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3908.64,"endTime":3910.86,"body":"It doesn't say if one country is attacked"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3910.86,"endTime":3913.95,"body":"you must provide a division"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3910.86,"endTime":3913.95,"body":"of soldiers or something."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3913.95,"endTime":3917.46,"body":"It says, \"Such action"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3913.95,"endTime":3917.46,"body":"as they deem necessary.\""},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3917.46,"endTime":3920.94,"body":"So yeah, if Hungary in the end"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3920.94,"endTime":3924.39,"body":"didn't send troops to a"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3920.94,"endTime":3924.39,"body":"collective NATO defense operation,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3924.39,"endTime":3926.01,"body":"I mean, they would get a lot of criticism,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3926.01,"endTime":3928.08,"body":"but it wouldn't break NATO."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3928.08,"endTime":3930.18,"body":"They would've exercised"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3928.08,"endTime":3930.18,"body":"their sovereign right"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3930.18,"endTime":3932.61,"body":"to stand aside from the military action."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3932.61,"endTime":3935.82,"body":"And that gives NATO a basic flexibility"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3935.82,"endTime":3938.13,"body":"which allows it to cope with countries"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3938.13,"endTime":3941.52,"body":"with different interests and"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3938.13,"endTime":3941.52,"body":"different levels of commitment."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3941.52,"endTime":3942.353,"body":"One would hope"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3942.353,"endTime":3944.19,"body":"that still the great"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3942.353,"endTime":3944.19,"body":"majority of NATO countries"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3944.19,"endTime":3947.67,"body":"would send troops to support"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3944.19,"endTime":3947.67,"body":"an ally being attacked,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3947.67,"endTime":3950.22,"body":"and if Hungary didn't, it"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3947.67,"endTime":3950.22,"body":"wouldn't be the end of the world."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3950.22,"endTime":3951.48,"body":"- [Audience Member] I'd"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3950.22,"endTime":3951.48,"body":"like say at the outset"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3951.48,"endTime":3955.47,"body":"I fully support all the direct"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3951.48,"endTime":3955.47,"body":"actions you've mentioned"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3955.47,"endTime":3957.81,"body":"in order to aid Ukraine,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3957.81,"endTime":3961.14,"body":"but I'd like to ask you"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3957.81,"endTime":3961.14,"body":"about the sanctions."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3961.14,"endTime":3965.43,"body":"If I look at what Russia is"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3961.14,"endTime":3965.43,"body":"doing with energy, with oil,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3965.43,"endTime":3969.54,"body":"it's selling it now to China and to India."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3969.54,"endTime":3972.15,"body":"And if you look at the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3969.54,"endTime":3972.15,"body":"ruble against the pound"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3972.15,"endTime":3973.89,"body":"since all this started,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3973.89,"endTime":3977.01,"body":"it stood at 100 to the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3973.89,"endTime":3977.01,"body":"pound before the war,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3977.01,"endTime":3979.11,"body":"it then shot up to 180,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3979.11,"endTime":3982.17,"body":"and now the last time I"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3979.11,"endTime":3982.17,"body":"looked it was about 60."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3982.17,"endTime":3985.89,"body":"So it seems to me that we're"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3982.17,"endTime":3985.89,"body":"actually getting poorer"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3985.89,"endTime":3988.95,"body":"while the Russians are getting richer."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3988.95,"endTime":3991.92,"body":"Is it possible to have effective sanctions"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3991.92,"endTime":3994.68,"body":"against a huge resource-rich,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3994.68,"endTime":3997.47,"body":"self-sufficient country like Russia?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3997.47,"endTime":3998.915,"body":"Can they work?"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3998.915,"endTime":4000.283,"body":"(audience member applauds)"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":3998.915,"endTime":4000.283,"body":"- Well,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4001.31,"endTime":4004.19,"body":"I wouldn't say Russia is"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4001.31,"endTime":4004.19,"body":"a self-sufficient country."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4004.19,"endTime":4006.023,"body":"It is self-sufficient in energy."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4006.95,"endTime":4009.98,"body":"But I think where the"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4006.95,"endTime":4009.98,"body":"sanctions are really doing"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4009.98,"endTime":4012.02,"body":"longer-term damage to Russia"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4012.02,"endTime":4013.79,"body":"is in its industry,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4013.79,"endTime":4015.77,"body":"because it is very dependent on the West"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4015.77,"endTime":4020.45,"body":"for industrial goods, for technology,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4020.45,"endTime":4024.203,"body":"for basic things like chips"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4020.45,"endTime":4024.203,"body":"and microprocessors and so on."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4025.576,"endTime":4026.69,"body":"There was a report recently"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4026.69,"endTime":4029.18,"body":"examining Russian recovered weapons"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4029.18,"endTime":4030.56,"body":"from the battlefield in Ukraine"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4030.56,"endTime":4031.97,"body":"which hadn't exploded,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4031.97,"endTime":4034.04,"body":"and the analysts found they were stuffed"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4034.04,"endTime":4036.233,"body":"full of Western electronics."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4037.22,"endTime":4040.7,"body":"And so if the West can make"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4037.22,"endTime":4040.7,"body":"the sanctions effective"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4040.7,"endTime":4044.72,"body":"and deny Russia access to our electronics,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4044.72,"endTime":4047.51,"body":"then the next generation of"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4044.72,"endTime":4047.51,"body":"weapons won't be as good."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4047.51,"endTime":4050.93,"body":"So, I mean, you can't"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4047.51,"endTime":4050.93,"body":"really stop an oil exporter"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4050.93,"endTime":4051.86,"body":"from exporting oil,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4051.86,"endTime":4055.25,"body":"because you can certainly"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4051.86,"endTime":4055.25,"body":"sanction it, you know,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4055.25,"endTime":4056.6,"body":"for the countries that apply sanctions,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4056.6,"endTime":4058.79,"body":"but you can't stop it sending oil to China"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4058.79,"endTime":4059.96,"body":"or Iran or whatever."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4059.96,"endTime":4063.89,"body":"So it's oil exports short of a blockade,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4063.89,"endTime":4065.39,"body":"which would be an act of war,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4065.39,"endTime":4066.71,"body":"there's not much we can do about it."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4066.71,"endTime":4068.75,"body":"Gas, I mean, the only alternative"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4068.75,"endTime":4070.43,"body":"for Russia to selling the gas to Europe"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4070.43,"endTime":4071.45,"body":"is to sell it to China,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4071.45,"endTime":4074.51,"body":"build a vast pipeline"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4071.45,"endTime":4074.51,"body":"and sell it to China."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4074.51,"endTime":4076.82,"body":"I wonder how much it's"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4074.51,"endTime":4076.82,"body":"in Russia's interest"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4076.82,"endTime":4079.19,"body":"to become a junior partner to China,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4079.19,"endTime":4081.53,"body":"completely dependent in terms"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4081.53,"endTime":4084.02,"body":"of its energy relations on China."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4084.02,"endTime":4088.91,"body":"So I think the problem is"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4084.02,"endTime":4088.91,"body":"Russia in the short term"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4088.91,"endTime":4091.55,"body":"can exercise more squeeze on the Europeans"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4091.55,"endTime":4092.93,"body":"than we can on Russia,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4092.93,"endTime":4094.46,"body":"but in the longer term"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4094.46,"endTime":4096.29,"body":"the sanctions are doing real damage"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4096.29,"endTime":4098.48,"body":"to Russia's industrial potential"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4098.48,"endTime":4101.93,"body":"and are reducing Russia's options."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4101.93,"endTime":4104.21,"body":"And over time that will show,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4104.21,"endTime":4106.22,"body":"I mean, Russia's economy will weaken"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4106.22,"endTime":4107.69,"body":"because its industrial potential"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4107.69,"endTime":4109.16,"body":"is being weakened by sanctions."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4109.16,"endTime":4110.81,"body":"I think that's the best"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4109.16,"endTime":4110.81,"body":"answer I can give you."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4110.81,"endTime":4111.923,"body":"- Thank you very much."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4112.88,"endTime":4113.713,"body":"I'm Martin Elliott,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4113.713,"endTime":4116.3,"body":"I'm the current provost"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4113.713,"endTime":4116.3,"body":"of Gresham College."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4116.3,"endTime":4118.88,"body":"Now, over recent weeks,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4118.88,"endTime":4122.51,"body":"the national press has"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4118.88,"endTime":4122.51,"body":"used a great deal of energy"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4122.51,"endTime":4126.203,"body":"searching for an adult in"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4122.51,"endTime":4126.203,"body":"the room of public policy."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4127.28,"endTime":4129.5,"body":"I'm sure you'll agree that Lord Ricketts"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4129.5,"endTime":4131.57,"body":"tonight in his wonderful lecture"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4131.57,"endTime":4135.26,"body":"is clearly not only"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4131.57,"endTime":4135.26,"body":"that adult in the room,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4135.26,"endTime":4136.853,"body":"but also able to command it."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4138.89,"endTime":4142.913,"body":"We at Gresham College are"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4138.89,"endTime":4142.913,"body":"used to excellent lecturers,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4143.84,"endTime":4146.33,"body":"but it takes a special skill"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4146.33,"endTime":4151.33,"body":"to be both wide ranging and"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4146.33,"endTime":4151.33,"body":"concise in the same talk,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4151.43,"endTime":4152.96,"body":"and more so to deliver a talk"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4152.96,"endTime":4155.51,"body":"with the elegance and panache"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4155.51,"endTime":4157.41,"body":"demonstrated by Lord Ricketts tonight."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4158.93,"endTime":4162.863,"body":"Now, politicians may"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4158.93,"endTime":4162.863,"body":"struggle to be sensible,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4164.9,"endTime":4167.45,"body":"but we can all hope that they listen,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4167.45,"endTime":4169.493,"body":"and by listening, acquire wisdom."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4171.26,"endTime":4172.52,"body":"We the public, I think,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4172.52,"endTime":4176.12,"body":"should be grateful that"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4172.52,"endTime":4176.12,"body":"we have expert analysts"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4176.12,"endTime":4177.42,"body":"like Lord Ricketts"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4178.34,"endTime":4179.87,"body":"to provide them with advice,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4179.87,"endTime":4181.94,"body":"and we hope and trust that governments"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4181.94,"endTime":4184.46,"body":"ultimately might heed it."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4184.46,"endTime":4187.61,"body":"Britain clearly needs it now,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4187.61,"endTime":4189.893,"body":"even if it's not just one country."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4191.51,"endTime":4194.72,"body":"We do indeed live in interesting times"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4194.72,"endTime":4199.72,"body":"and on behalf of the Gresham"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4194.72,"endTime":4199.72,"body":"Society, Gresham College,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4199.91,"endTime":4203.36,"body":"and of course the Mercers and"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4199.91,"endTime":4203.36,"body":"the Corporation of London,"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4203.36,"endTime":4205.07,"body":"I hope you will join me"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4205.07,"endTime":4208.07,"body":"in once again thanking Lord Peter Ricketts"},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4208.07,"endTime":4210.79,"body":"for his magisterial nailer lecture."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4210.79,"endTime":4215.79,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"speaker":"on \"Iran","startTime":4210.79,"endTime":4215.79,"body":"(audience applauds)"}]}