{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.273,"endTime":2.7,"body":"- Over the last few decades,"},{"startTime":2.7,"endTime":4.29,"body":"there has been a transformation"},{"startTime":4.29,"endTime":6.303,"body":"of world historical significance."},{"startTime":7.2,"endTime":11.4,"body":"China's rise to be the"},{"startTime":7.2,"endTime":11.4,"body":"world's second largest economy"},{"startTime":11.4,"endTime":13.95,"body":"has both pulled millions out of poverty"},{"startTime":13.95,"endTime":17.853,"body":"and led to threats of trade war"},{"startTime":13.95,"endTime":17.853,"body":"and geopolitical disruption."},{"startTime":18.69,"endTime":20.85,"body":"Well, as you see from these figures,"},{"startTime":20.85,"endTime":23.22,"body":"China still has some way to go"},{"startTime":23.22,"endTime":26.49,"body":"before it closes the gap"},{"startTime":23.22,"endTime":26.49,"body":"in per capita incomes"},{"startTime":26.49,"endTime":28.53,"body":"with the United States,"},{"startTime":28.53,"endTime":31.98,"body":"and India has still further to go,"},{"startTime":31.98,"endTime":34.59,"body":"but the gap is narrowing."},{"startTime":34.59,"endTime":38.34,"body":"Data from the World Inequality Database"},{"startTime":38.34,"endTime":42.15,"body":"shows that American GDP per adult"},{"startTime":42.15,"endTime":47.15,"body":"was 13.5 times that of China in 1960."},{"startTime":47.52,"endTime":52.02,"body":"By 2020, the discrepancy had dropped,"},{"startTime":52.02,"endTime":53.46,"body":"the United States was now"},{"startTime":53.46,"endTime":58.46,"body":"only 3.1 times the per"},{"startTime":53.46,"endTime":58.46,"body":"capita GDP of China."},{"startTime":59.91,"endTime":61.38,"body":"So at the moment,"},{"startTime":61.38,"endTime":65.403,"body":"we're experiencing a"},{"startTime":61.38,"endTime":65.403,"body":"period of convergence,"},{"startTime":66.84,"endTime":68.67,"body":"and convergence, of course,"},{"startTime":68.67,"endTime":70.68,"body":"follows from an earlier period"},{"startTime":70.68,"endTime":74.94,"body":"of so-called great divergence."},{"startTime":74.94,"endTime":76.44,"body":"What we are now seeing"},{"startTime":76.44,"endTime":78.9,"body":"is a return to an earlier pattern,"},{"startTime":78.9,"endTime":83.25,"body":"when Asian economies were"},{"startTime":78.9,"endTime":83.25,"body":"as successful as Europe,"},{"startTime":83.25,"endTime":86.373,"body":"with equivalent levels"},{"startTime":83.25,"endTime":86.373,"body":"of per capita income."},{"startTime":87.66,"endTime":92.66,"body":"And this is the historical"},{"startTime":87.66,"endTime":92.66,"body":"question I wish to explore today,"},{"startTime":92.7,"endTime":95.55,"body":"to take the title of a recent book"},{"startTime":95.55,"endTime":98.103,"body":"by Prasannan Parthasarathi,"},{"startTime":98.97,"endTime":103.323,"body":"why did Europe grow rich and Asia did not?"},{"startTime":105.09,"endTime":108.57,"body":"In order to try and explore that question,"},{"startTime":108.57,"endTime":113.57,"body":"let's go back in time and"},{"startTime":108.57,"endTime":113.57,"body":"across the globe in space"},{"startTime":113.7,"endTime":115.17,"body":"to two places"},{"startTime":115.17,"endTime":119.52,"body":"which were both economically"},{"startTime":115.17,"endTime":119.52,"body":"successful and prosperous,"},{"startTime":119.52,"endTime":123.543,"body":"supplying highly valued"},{"startTime":119.52,"endTime":123.543,"body":"commodities to European markets."},{"startTime":125.1,"endTime":126.33,"body":"In doing this,"},{"startTime":126.33,"endTime":128.94,"body":"in going back in time"},{"startTime":126.33,"endTime":128.94,"body":"and across the globe,"},{"startTime":128.94,"endTime":132.6,"body":"we need to rewrite the"},{"startTime":128.94,"endTime":132.6,"body":"history of globalization,"},{"startTime":132.6,"endTime":135.39,"body":"not as a process centered on Europe,"},{"startTime":135.39,"endTime":139.593,"body":"but one which gives equal"},{"startTime":135.39,"endTime":139.593,"body":"weight to China and India."},{"startTime":140.472,"endTime":141.84,"body":"And when we do that,"},{"startTime":141.84,"endTime":144.9,"body":"we can then put the British"},{"startTime":141.84,"endTime":144.9,"body":"Industrial Revolution"},{"startTime":144.9,"endTime":147.213,"body":"in a global context."},{"startTime":148.71,"endTime":153.71,"body":"And the first place I want to"},{"startTime":148.71,"endTime":153.71,"body":"go to is Jingdezhen, in China,"},{"startTime":154.74,"endTime":158.013,"body":"the city of blue and white porcelain."},{"startTime":159.27,"endTime":163.23,"body":"This city was the premier"},{"startTime":159.27,"endTime":163.23,"body":"site of ceramics production"},{"startTime":163.23,"endTime":164.593,"body":"in the world"},{"startTime":164.593,"endTime":168.933,"body":"from the 11th century at least"},{"startTime":164.593,"endTime":168.933,"body":"to the early 18th century."},{"startTime":170.19,"endTime":173.58,"body":"The image here of the Percival David vases"},{"startTime":175.71,"endTime":177.51,"body":"in the British Museum,"},{"startTime":177.51,"endTime":182.073,"body":"and here you see the mechanized"},{"startTime":177.51,"endTime":182.073,"body":"production in that city."},{"startTime":183.09,"endTime":185.28,"body":"The production of this porcelain"},{"startTime":185.28,"endTime":186.69,"body":"reached global markets"},{"startTime":186.69,"endTime":190.443,"body":"in Japan, Korea, the"},{"startTime":186.69,"endTime":190.443,"body":"Middle East, and Europe."},{"startTime":191.46,"endTime":193.23,"body":"Although Chinese state policy"},{"startTime":193.23,"endTime":195.36,"body":"veered from encouragement"},{"startTime":195.36,"endTime":197.733,"body":"to prohibition of Chinese merchants,"},{"startTime":199.17,"endTime":200.52,"body":"on the whole, they continued,"},{"startTime":200.52,"endTime":202.62,"body":"despite the policy of the state,"},{"startTime":202.62,"endTime":204.393,"body":"to trade globally."},{"startTime":205.59,"endTime":207.54,"body":"And from the 16th century,"},{"startTime":207.54,"endTime":209.7,"body":"Europeans entered the market,"},{"startTime":209.7,"endTime":211.77,"body":"at first the Portuguese,"},{"startTime":211.77,"endTime":214.32,"body":"and then, from the start"},{"startTime":211.77,"endTime":214.32,"body":"of the 17th century,"},{"startTime":214.32,"endTime":217.503,"body":"the Dutch and the English"},{"startTime":214.32,"endTime":217.503,"body":"East India companies."},{"startTime":218.67,"endTime":223.08,"body":"So how did this city of"},{"startTime":218.67,"endTime":223.08,"body":"blue and white porcelain"},{"startTime":223.08,"endTime":224.973,"body":"achieve its global position?"},{"startTime":226.56,"endTime":227.7,"body":"Well, for start,"},{"startTime":227.7,"endTime":229.71,"body":"it was not alone in China,"},{"startTime":229.71,"endTime":232.98,"body":"it was facing competition with"},{"startTime":229.71,"endTime":232.98,"body":"other centers within China,"},{"startTime":232.98,"endTime":234.75,"body":"but also in the rest of Asia,"},{"startTime":234.75,"endTime":237.033,"body":"particularly in Korea."},{"startTime":238.44,"endTime":240.87,"body":"There was knowledge of"},{"startTime":238.44,"endTime":240.87,"body":"consumer preferences"},{"startTime":240.87,"endTime":243.54,"body":"because of the trade in these commodities"},{"startTime":243.54,"endTime":244.683,"body":"and the competition."},{"startTime":245.91,"endTime":248.88,"body":"The city was embedded in global networks,"},{"startTime":248.88,"endTime":249.713,"body":"for example,"},{"startTime":249.713,"endTime":254.46,"body":"the cobalt which was used"},{"startTime":249.713,"endTime":254.46,"body":"for the blue porcelain here"},{"startTime":254.46,"endTime":256.923,"body":"came largely from Persia."},{"startTime":258.81,"endTime":262.443,"body":"There's also an important"},{"startTime":258.81,"endTime":262.443,"body":"role of the imperial court."},{"startTime":265.17,"endTime":269.85,"body":"It was largely controlled by the emperor,"},{"startTime":269.85,"endTime":273.27,"body":"and supplied material, ceramics,"},{"startTime":273.27,"endTime":276.15,"body":"not just for the emperor and the family,"},{"startTime":276.15,"endTime":279.6,"body":"but for a wider group of courtiers."},{"startTime":279.6,"endTime":282.87,"body":"For example, a recent book argues"},{"startTime":282.87,"endTime":286.17,"body":"that there were 100,000 eunuchs,"},{"startTime":286.17,"endTime":290.04,"body":"each with a servant and"},{"startTime":286.17,"endTime":290.04,"body":"perhaps an adopted son,"},{"startTime":290.04,"endTime":292.17,"body":"and in 1433,"},{"startTime":292.17,"endTime":297.17,"body":"Jingdezhen was required to send"},{"startTime":292.17,"endTime":297.17,"body":"443,500 pieces of porcelain"},{"startTime":298.86,"endTime":300.033,"body":"to the eunuchs."},{"startTime":302.73,"endTime":303.75,"body":"The court, then,"},{"startTime":303.75,"endTime":307.593,"body":"is a very important element in the trade,"},{"startTime":308.43,"endTime":310.08,"body":"and this leads to tension"},{"startTime":310.08,"endTime":311.52,"body":"between the administrators,"},{"startTime":311.52,"endTime":314.16,"body":"appointed by the imperial court,"},{"startTime":314.16,"endTime":315.9,"body":"and the workers in the kilns,"},{"startTime":315.9,"endTime":319.89,"body":"who wanted to go and"},{"startTime":315.9,"endTime":319.89,"body":"work for private kilns,"},{"startTime":319.89,"endTime":321.93,"body":"so there's a tussle going on here"},{"startTime":321.93,"endTime":325.08,"body":"over the control of scarce resources,"},{"startTime":325.08,"endTime":328.47,"body":"reserves of the fine"},{"startTime":325.08,"endTime":328.47,"body":"local clay which is used,"},{"startTime":328.47,"endTime":330.99,"body":"and the attempt to bind skilled workers"},{"startTime":330.99,"endTime":335.1,"body":"to the imperial kilns, and"},{"startTime":330.99,"endTime":335.1,"body":"not to the private kilns."},{"startTime":335.1,"endTime":338.85,"body":"So the scale of the court market"},{"startTime":338.85,"endTime":340.95,"body":"could also be a weakness"},{"startTime":340.95,"endTime":344.613,"body":"in terms of constraining"},{"startTime":340.95,"endTime":344.613,"body":"the market mechanism."},{"startTime":346.08,"endTime":347.28,"body":"But that said,"},{"startTime":347.28,"endTime":349.05,"body":"the products from the kilns"},{"startTime":349.05,"endTime":353.04,"body":"were exported in huge"},{"startTime":349.05,"endTime":353.04,"body":"quantities to Europe,"},{"startTime":353.04,"endTime":356.25,"body":"and that led to cheaper imitation."},{"startTime":356.25,"endTime":360.15,"body":"I think a very important part"},{"startTime":356.25,"endTime":360.15,"body":"of European industrialization"},{"startTime":360.15,"endTime":363.54,"body":"is what one historian has called populuxe,"},{"startTime":363.54,"endTime":366.87,"body":"the popularization,"},{"startTime":363.54,"endTime":366.87,"body":"using cheaper materials,"},{"startTime":366.87,"endTime":370.47,"body":"of imported Asian luxuries,"},{"startTime":370.47,"endTime":373.26,"body":"for example as here in Delft,"},{"startTime":373.26,"endTime":374.85,"body":"which is a charger"},{"startTime":374.85,"endTime":378.81,"body":"made in the style of an"},{"startTime":374.85,"endTime":378.81,"body":"earlier Chinese period,"},{"startTime":378.81,"endTime":382.11,"body":"made in Delft, in the 17th century."},{"startTime":382.11,"endTime":384.09,"body":"So that sort of emulation"},{"startTime":384.09,"endTime":388.413,"body":"was a very important feature"},{"startTime":384.09,"endTime":388.413,"body":"of European industrialization,"},{"startTime":390.15,"endTime":393.42,"body":"until, by the later 18th century,"},{"startTime":393.42,"endTime":397.26,"body":"European production was able to compete,"},{"startTime":397.26,"endTime":399.99,"body":"so Wedgwood, Meissen, Sevres."},{"startTime":399.99,"endTime":404.387,"body":"When Lord Macartney went"},{"startTime":399.99,"endTime":404.387,"body":"to China as an ambassador"},{"startTime":406.08,"endTime":408.3,"body":"in 1793, from Britain,"},{"startTime":408.3,"endTime":410.28,"body":"he took British porcelain with him,"},{"startTime":410.28,"endTime":413.88,"body":"and was then confident of its superiority,"},{"startTime":413.88,"endTime":415.71,"body":"so we're seeing a shift"},{"startTime":415.71,"endTime":419.55,"body":"in the balance of trade and reputation"},{"startTime":419.55,"endTime":421.563,"body":"between the two areas."},{"startTime":422.91,"endTime":427.91,"body":"I now want to take you to"},{"startTime":422.91,"endTime":427.91,"body":"India, and Indian textiles."},{"startTime":429.51,"endTime":433.95,"body":"Until 1800, India was"},{"startTime":429.51,"endTime":433.95,"body":"the world's major center"},{"startTime":433.95,"endTime":437.43,"body":"for the production of cotton textiles,"},{"startTime":437.43,"endTime":439.35,"body":"and as with porcelain,"},{"startTime":439.35,"endTime":441.483,"body":"it was not just for the local market."},{"startTime":442.38,"endTime":444.57,"body":"Indian cotton cloth was traded"},{"startTime":444.57,"endTime":446.94,"body":"across the Indian Ocean world,"},{"startTime":446.94,"endTime":449.46,"body":"and was found from the 11th century"},{"startTime":449.46,"endTime":451.653,"body":"in Egypt and Iran."},{"startTime":453.84,"endTime":455.94,"body":"Production for the export market"},{"startTime":455.94,"endTime":458.193,"body":"was concentrated in three areas."},{"startTime":459.27,"endTime":462.42,"body":"The first was in Gujarat,"},{"startTime":459.27,"endTime":462.42,"body":"on the west coast,"},{"startTime":462.42,"endTime":466.47,"body":"which was largely supplying"},{"startTime":462.42,"endTime":466.47,"body":"the Indian Ocean trading world,"},{"startTime":466.47,"endTime":470.55,"body":"and that was mainly"},{"startTime":466.47,"endTime":470.55,"body":"painted cloth and muslin,"},{"startTime":470.55,"endTime":473.91,"body":"and here we see a"},{"startTime":470.55,"endTime":473.91,"body":"painting by George Romney"},{"startTime":473.91,"endTime":477.9,"body":"of Lady Lemon wearing a muslin dress,"},{"startTime":477.9,"endTime":479.763,"body":"in about 1785."},{"startTime":482.49,"endTime":487.49,"body":"The second major area was"},{"startTime":482.49,"endTime":487.49,"body":"the east coast, Coromandel,"},{"startTime":489.6,"endTime":491.583,"body":"which was supplying Southeast Asia,"},{"startTime":492.48,"endTime":495.18,"body":"and that was known for printed textiles,"},{"startTime":495.18,"endTime":496.59,"body":"and here we have an example"},{"startTime":496.59,"endTime":499.983,"body":"from the Metropolitan Museum in New York,"},{"startTime":501.45,"endTime":503.94,"body":"cotton cloth of the 18th century."},{"startTime":503.94,"endTime":508.86,"body":"And this is actually copying"},{"startTime":503.94,"endTime":508.86,"body":"a European silk design,"},{"startTime":508.86,"endTime":512.19,"body":"so it's a two-way trade of influence,"},{"startTime":512.19,"endTime":514.143,"body":"who was copying whom."},{"startTime":515.34,"endTime":520.17,"body":"But it's also in this"},{"startTime":515.34,"endTime":520.17,"body":"area on the east coast,"},{"startTime":520.17,"endTime":522.57,"body":"producing, in the 18th century,"},{"startTime":522.57,"endTime":525.36,"body":"blue cloth, dyed with indigo,"},{"startTime":525.36,"endTime":528.42,"body":"and that was largely sold in West Africa,"},{"startTime":528.42,"endTime":530.34,"body":"so it joins in"},{"startTime":530.34,"endTime":533.4,"body":"to what is normally known"},{"startTime":530.34,"endTime":533.4,"body":"as the triangular trade"},{"startTime":533.4,"endTime":536.88,"body":"of goods from Bristol"},{"startTime":533.4,"endTime":536.88,"body":"and London, Liverpool,"},{"startTime":536.88,"endTime":538.41,"body":"to the west coast,"},{"startTime":538.41,"endTime":541.29,"body":"and then slaves over to the Caribbean,"},{"startTime":541.29,"endTime":542.76,"body":"and sugar back,"},{"startTime":542.76,"endTime":545.97,"body":"we also have to factor India into that,"},{"startTime":545.97,"endTime":548.973,"body":"so Indian cloth going to West Africa."},{"startTime":550.41,"endTime":551.82,"body":"And the third major area,"},{"startTime":551.82,"endTime":553.77,"body":"which is growing increasingly important"},{"startTime":553.77,"endTime":555.51,"body":"from the early 17th century"},{"startTime":555.51,"endTime":557.25,"body":"was Bengal,"},{"startTime":557.25,"endTime":559.35,"body":"and that was more of a frontier region"},{"startTime":559.35,"endTime":562.02,"body":"which was expanding, becoming settled,"},{"startTime":562.02,"endTime":565.41,"body":"with growing towns and rice cultivation,"},{"startTime":565.41,"endTime":570.18,"body":"and that is producing fine"},{"startTime":565.41,"endTime":570.18,"body":"muslins and cotton-silk mix,"},{"startTime":570.18,"endTime":572.31,"body":"not printed or painted"},{"startTime":572.31,"endTime":575.76,"body":"so much as finely woven and finished,"},{"startTime":575.76,"endTime":578.97,"body":"and some of it was also embroidered."},{"startTime":578.97,"endTime":582.09,"body":"So we have these three major export areas,"},{"startTime":582.09,"endTime":583.23,"body":"different parts of the world,"},{"startTime":583.23,"endTime":585.18,"body":"different types of cloth,"},{"startTime":585.18,"endTime":588.39,"body":"and then there are also other"},{"startTime":585.18,"endTime":588.39,"body":"centers which are more inland,"},{"startTime":588.39,"endTime":590.07,"body":"providing local markets,"},{"startTime":590.07,"endTime":592.323,"body":"in Delhi and the Punjab."},{"startTime":593.88,"endTime":597.51,"body":"So this is a major cotton textile industry"},{"startTime":597.51,"endTime":601.47,"body":"before cotton was really"},{"startTime":597.51,"endTime":601.47,"body":"produced in Europe."},{"startTime":601.47,"endTime":606.47,"body":"The trade reached a very large"},{"startTime":601.47,"endTime":606.47,"body":"scale by the 15th century,"},{"startTime":606.57,"endTime":610.56,"body":"and production boomed"},{"startTime":606.57,"endTime":610.56,"body":"from the mid 16th century"},{"startTime":610.56,"endTime":613.503,"body":"with demand in the Ottoman Empire,"},{"startTime":614.97,"endTime":619.41,"body":"and in Iran, in the Atlantic World,"},{"startTime":619.41,"endTime":622.23,"body":"covering the whole area from West Africa"},{"startTime":622.23,"endTime":624.9,"body":"to Europe and the Americas,"},{"startTime":624.9,"endTime":629.073,"body":"so I'm inserting this into"},{"startTime":624.9,"endTime":629.073,"body":"a history of globalization."},{"startTime":630.57,"endTime":633.42,"body":"From the middle of the 17th century,"},{"startTime":633.42,"endTime":635.763,"body":"European demand grew particularly,"},{"startTime":636.63,"endTime":639.45,"body":"and the English and Dutch"},{"startTime":636.63,"endTime":639.45,"body":"East India companies"},{"startTime":639.45,"endTime":644.45,"body":"were taking about 20% of"},{"startTime":639.45,"endTime":644.45,"body":"the output of South India"},{"startTime":644.58,"endTime":647.343,"body":"in the first quarter of the 18th century."},{"startTime":648.3,"endTime":649.68,"body":"And in particular,"},{"startTime":649.68,"endTime":652.47,"body":"there was an expansion from Bengal"},{"startTime":652.47,"endTime":655.95,"body":"in the export of plain"},{"startTime":652.47,"endTime":655.95,"body":"white cloth, or calicos,"},{"startTime":655.95,"endTime":659.523,"body":"for finishing and printing in Europe."},{"startTime":661.05,"endTime":664.35,"body":"So both this region of"},{"startTime":661.05,"endTime":664.35,"body":"China that I'm talking about"},{"startTime":664.35,"endTime":665.64,"body":"and India"},{"startTime":665.64,"endTime":668.253,"body":"were centers of global trade networks,"},{"startTime":669.15,"endTime":671.97,"body":"and what we should see is a global economy"},{"startTime":671.97,"endTime":674.82,"body":"that was not centered on Europe,"},{"startTime":674.82,"endTime":677.79,"body":"but what the historian Ken Pomeranz calls,"},{"startTime":677.79,"endTime":679.087,"body":"and I quote,"},{"startTime":679.087,"endTime":683.677,"body":"\"A polycentric world,"},{"startTime":679.087,"endTime":683.677,"body":"with no dominant center."},{"startTime":683.677,"endTime":688.327,"body":"\"Only after 19th century"},{"startTime":683.677,"endTime":688.327,"body":"industrialization,\" he says,"},{"startTime":688.327,"endTime":689.737,"body":"\"was well advanced"},{"startTime":689.737,"endTime":690.667,"body":"\"does it make sense"},{"startTime":690.667,"endTime":694.89,"body":"\"to see a single hegemonic European core,\""},{"startTime":694.89,"endTime":699.183,"body":"so polycentric before"},{"startTime":694.89,"endTime":699.183,"body":"Europe becomes hegemonic."},{"startTime":702.39,"endTime":705.03,"body":"This huge demand in Europe"},{"startTime":705.03,"endTime":707.49,"body":"for the porcelain goods from China,"},{"startTime":707.49,"endTime":709.0,"body":"the textiles from India"},{"startTime":710.1,"endTime":712.53,"body":"was not mirrored"},{"startTime":712.53,"endTime":715.95,"body":"by a large amount of"},{"startTime":712.53,"endTime":715.95,"body":"trade going the other way,"},{"startTime":715.95,"endTime":718.173,"body":"it was paid for in bullion."},{"startTime":719.34,"endTime":724.34,"body":"India took about 20% of"},{"startTime":719.34,"endTime":724.34,"body":"global silver production"},{"startTime":724.98,"endTime":729.15,"body":"from 1600 to 1800,"},{"startTime":729.15,"endTime":732.75,"body":"which contributed to"},{"startTime":729.15,"endTime":732.75,"body":"economic expansion in India,"},{"startTime":732.75,"endTime":735.06,"body":"because a lot of it was monetized"},{"startTime":735.06,"endTime":738.0,"body":"rather than being used for jewelry,"},{"startTime":738.0,"endTime":741.753,"body":"and some of it also flowed into China."},{"startTime":742.86,"endTime":746.25,"body":"And here we have an example of that,"},{"startTime":746.25,"endTime":751.091,"body":"which is a Spanish American silver coin,"},{"startTime":751.091,"endTime":754.508,"body":"the one I found here was 1803,"},{"startTime":754.508,"endTime":756.18,"body":"and I don't know if you"},{"startTime":754.508,"endTime":756.18,"body":"can make out the details,"},{"startTime":756.18,"endTime":758.85,"body":"but it has what are called chop marks,"},{"startTime":758.85,"endTime":760.54,"body":"so it has impressions here"},{"startTime":764.13,"endTime":766.77,"body":"from merchants in China"},{"startTime":766.77,"endTime":769.8,"body":"who have tested, assayed the silver"},{"startTime":769.8,"endTime":774.8,"body":"to make sure it is worth"},{"startTime":769.8,"endTime":774.8,"body":"what it claims to be worth."},{"startTime":774.81,"endTime":779.81,"body":"So this flow of silver from"},{"startTime":774.81,"endTime":779.81,"body":"South America into Asia"},{"startTime":781.68,"endTime":785.25,"body":"is creating liquidity"},{"startTime":781.68,"endTime":785.25,"body":"in the Indian economy"},{"startTime":785.25,"endTime":787.983,"body":"and contributing to a commercial boom."},{"startTime":790.86,"endTime":794.373,"body":"But, looking at it from Europe,"},{"startTime":795.36,"endTime":799.38,"body":"this success of Asian"},{"startTime":795.36,"endTime":799.38,"body":"goods in European markets"},{"startTime":799.38,"endTime":801.453,"body":"led to two concerns."},{"startTime":802.62,"endTime":806.073,"body":"The first was the loss of bullion."},{"startTime":807.3,"endTime":810.06,"body":"In the 17th and 18th centuries,"},{"startTime":810.06,"endTime":813.15,"body":"the outflow of silver,"},{"startTime":813.15,"endTime":814.92,"body":"which largely was bullion,"},{"startTime":814.92,"endTime":816.15,"body":"from Europe"},{"startTime":816.15,"endTime":820.173,"body":"was seen as a threat to"},{"startTime":816.15,"endTime":820.173,"body":"prosperity and to state power."},{"startTime":821.01,"endTime":823.71,"body":"It was believed that a state was powerful"},{"startTime":823.71,"endTime":826.14,"body":"the more bullion it had,"},{"startTime":826.14,"endTime":828.48,"body":"the more treasure it had,"},{"startTime":828.48,"endTime":831.99,"body":"and there was a sense of a zero-sum game."},{"startTime":831.99,"endTime":835.32,"body":"It's not that trade between everybody"},{"startTime":835.32,"endTime":837.42,"body":"will lead to everybody"},{"startTime":835.32,"endTime":837.42,"body":"being more prosperous,"},{"startTime":837.42,"endTime":840.51,"body":"if one person trades,"},{"startTime":837.42,"endTime":840.51,"body":"the other person loses,"},{"startTime":840.51,"endTime":842.58,"body":"it's like the mercantilist system,"},{"startTime":842.58,"endTime":845.07,"body":"trade is about warfare,"},{"startTime":845.07,"endTime":846.24,"body":"a view of which, of course,"},{"startTime":846.24,"endTime":848.07,"body":"has been noticed more recently"},{"startTime":848.07,"endTime":850.263,"body":"with some American presidents."},{"startTime":851.85,"endTime":855.06,"body":"So loss of bullion and"},{"startTime":851.85,"endTime":855.06,"body":"mercantilist state power"},{"startTime":855.06,"endTime":857.283,"body":"is one major concern,"},{"startTime":858.27,"endTime":861.843,"body":"secondly, there was a major"},{"startTime":858.27,"endTime":861.843,"body":"concern about employment."},{"startTime":863.07,"endTime":865.74,"body":"The import of Indian textiles"},{"startTime":865.74,"endTime":869.4,"body":"was considered to be"},{"startTime":865.74,"endTime":869.4,"body":"undermining, threatening"},{"startTime":869.4,"endTime":874.35,"body":"European woolen, silk,"},{"startTime":869.4,"endTime":874.35,"body":"and linen industries."},{"startTime":874.35,"endTime":876.03,"body":"And you may remember"},{"startTime":876.03,"endTime":878.43,"body":"I showed you a cotton cloth"},{"startTime":878.43,"endTime":882.6,"body":"in the style of a European silk cloth,"},{"startTime":882.6,"endTime":885.06,"body":"so nearby here, in Spitalfields,"},{"startTime":885.06,"endTime":886.32,"body":"the silk weavers there"},{"startTime":886.32,"endTime":889.59,"body":"might feel that they're going"},{"startTime":886.32,"endTime":889.59,"body":"to be losing their markets"},{"startTime":889.59,"endTime":892.05,"body":"and leading to unemployment,"},{"startTime":892.05,"endTime":896.853,"body":"but even more so the woolen"},{"startTime":892.05,"endTime":896.853,"body":"industry and the linen industry."},{"startTime":897.75,"endTime":899.64,"body":"And there was a big concern"},{"startTime":899.64,"endTime":901.71,"body":"that the loss of these markets"},{"startTime":901.71,"endTime":903.513,"body":"would lead to unemployment,"},{"startTime":904.68,"endTime":906.15,"body":"and that would lead to disorder,"},{"startTime":906.15,"endTime":909.546,"body":"at a time when there's no"},{"startTime":906.15,"endTime":909.546,"body":"standing army in this country,"},{"startTime":909.546,"endTime":912.69,"body":"and it would also lead to"},{"startTime":909.546,"endTime":912.69,"body":"a high cost of the Poor Law"},{"startTime":912.69,"endTime":915.9,"body":"to relieve people who are unemployed."},{"startTime":915.9,"endTime":919.47,"body":"Now, whether or not it was the case"},{"startTime":919.47,"endTime":921.87,"body":"that there was a genuine"},{"startTime":919.47,"endTime":921.87,"body":"threat to the woolen industry"},{"startTime":921.87,"endTime":923.463,"body":"is by the way,"},{"startTime":924.72,"endTime":929.28,"body":"it's what people believed would"},{"startTime":924.72,"endTime":929.28,"body":"happen that was important."},{"startTime":929.28,"endTime":930.113,"body":"Some historians say"},{"startTime":930.113,"endTime":931.86,"body":"that these are different"},{"startTime":930.113,"endTime":931.86,"body":"segments of the market,"},{"startTime":931.86,"endTime":933.75,"body":"and they're for different uses, and so on,"},{"startTime":933.75,"endTime":937.68,"body":"but the claim of the woolen industry,"},{"startTime":937.68,"endTime":939.54,"body":"the linen industry, the silk industry"},{"startTime":939.54,"endTime":941.13,"body":"is that they're being threatened"},{"startTime":941.13,"endTime":944.643,"body":"by these imports coming from India."},{"startTime":947.31,"endTime":951.03,"body":"So this is up to the early 18th century."},{"startTime":951.03,"endTime":952.8,"body":"Then, clearly, at some point,"},{"startTime":952.8,"endTime":954.933,"body":"the West pulls ahead,"},{"startTime":956.996,"endTime":958.773,"body":"the trade balance starts to shift,"},{"startTime":960.48,"endTime":962.973,"body":"there's a great divergence, so it is said."},{"startTime":964.32,"endTime":965.403,"body":"The question is,"},{"startTime":967.29,"endTime":969.15,"body":"when did it happen,"},{"startTime":969.15,"endTime":971.793,"body":"and if it happened, why did it happen?"},{"startTime":973.259,"endTime":975.72,"body":"And these are very much open questions"},{"startTime":975.72,"endTime":979.26,"body":"that are at the frontier"},{"startTime":975.72,"endTime":979.26,"body":"of historical research"},{"startTime":979.26,"endTime":981.003,"body":"and of controversy,"},{"startTime":981.96,"endTime":983.22,"body":"and I want to set out to you"},{"startTime":983.22,"endTime":987.15,"body":"some of the debates which"},{"startTime":983.22,"endTime":987.15,"body":"are going on around this,"},{"startTime":987.15,"endTime":989.85,"body":"so the next section of my lecture"},{"startTime":989.85,"endTime":993.243,"body":"is to ask when did the divergence happen."},{"startTime":995.76,"endTime":1000.68,"body":"This debate starts around about 2000"},{"startTime":1000.68,"endTime":1002.93,"body":"in a book by Ken Pomeranz,"},{"startTime":1002.93,"endTime":1004.85,"body":"who I was just citing,"},{"startTime":1004.85,"endTime":1007.877,"body":"and the book is called"},{"startTime":1004.85,"endTime":1007.877,"body":"\"The Great Divergence.\""},{"startTime":1009.26,"endTime":1014.26,"body":"He argued that the divergence"},{"startTime":1009.26,"endTime":1014.26,"body":"started around 1800,"},{"startTime":1014.69,"endTime":1016.37,"body":"that until 1800,"},{"startTime":1016.37,"endTime":1018.32,"body":"per capita income levels"},{"startTime":1018.32,"endTime":1021.65,"body":"in the most prosperous areas of Asia,"},{"startTime":1021.65,"endTime":1023.21,"body":"the Yangtze Delta"},{"startTime":1023.21,"endTime":1025.55,"body":"and parts of India that"},{"startTime":1023.21,"endTime":1025.55,"body":"I've been talking about,"},{"startTime":1025.55,"endTime":1027.833,"body":"were on a par with Europe."},{"startTime":1029.06,"endTime":1031.617,"body":"To quote the key view of his book,"},{"startTime":1031.617,"endTime":1035.427,"body":"\"Europe did not in fact"},{"startTime":1031.617,"endTime":1035.427,"body":"become much better off"},{"startTime":1035.427,"endTime":1036.867,"body":"\"than East Asia"},{"startTime":1036.867,"endTime":1040.19,"body":"\"until industrialization"},{"startTime":1036.867,"endTime":1040.19,"body":"was well underway,\""},{"startTime":1040.19,"endTime":1041.603,"body":"so around 1800."},{"startTime":1042.53,"endTime":1047.53,"body":"He argues that Europe was not"},{"startTime":1042.53,"endTime":1047.53,"body":"free of Malthusian pressures"},{"startTime":1048.56,"endTime":1051.6,"body":"any more than other large economies"},{"startTime":1052.73,"endTime":1054.743,"body":"before about 1800,"},{"startTime":1055.82,"endTime":1059.15,"body":"that Europe could, like Asia,"},{"startTime":1059.15,"endTime":1062.81,"body":"have gone down a different economic route,"},{"startTime":1062.81,"endTime":1064.76,"body":"labor-intensive production,"},{"startTime":1064.76,"endTime":1068.18,"body":"using cheap, abundant labor,"},{"startTime":1068.18,"endTime":1070.433,"body":"to save scarce resources."},{"startTime":1071.27,"endTime":1073.4,"body":"Instead, he argues,"},{"startTime":1073.4,"endTime":1076.13,"body":"Europe went down a different route,"},{"startTime":1076.13,"endTime":1080.273,"body":"labor-saving and resource-intensive."},{"startTime":1081.8,"endTime":1083.66,"body":"Obviously, there are parts of Europe"},{"startTime":1083.66,"endTime":1085.7,"body":"which didn't follow that route,"},{"startTime":1085.7,"endTime":1090.05,"body":"one might think about the Irish"},{"startTime":1085.7,"endTime":1090.05,"body":"potato famine of the 1840s,"},{"startTime":1090.05,"endTime":1094.25,"body":"but in rough terms, in bold terms,"},{"startTime":1094.25,"endTime":1095.6,"body":"that is what he is arguing."},{"startTime":1098.72,"endTime":1101.72,"body":"That claim in his book of 2000"},{"startTime":1101.72,"endTime":1103.64,"body":"led some historians, then,"},{"startTime":1103.64,"endTime":1108.053,"body":"to do something which I think"},{"startTime":1103.64,"endTime":1108.053,"body":"is absolutely impossible,"},{"startTime":1109.34,"endTime":1111.27,"body":"one might argue absurd"},{"startTime":1112.16,"endTime":1113.513,"body":"given the nature of data,"},{"startTime":1114.5,"endTime":1118.76,"body":"they tried to measure gross"},{"startTime":1114.5,"endTime":1118.76,"body":"domestic product per capita"},{"startTime":1118.76,"endTime":1121.28,"body":"between different parts of the world"},{"startTime":1121.28,"endTime":1123.56,"body":"over the very longterm,"},{"startTime":1123.56,"endTime":1125.903,"body":"going back to about the 12th century."},{"startTime":1127.34,"endTime":1129.77,"body":"Now, we don't have any secure data"},{"startTime":1129.77,"endTime":1130.75,"body":"on the size of the population,"},{"startTime":1130.75,"endTime":1132.86,"body":"you need to know what the population is"},{"startTime":1132.86,"endTime":1134.897,"body":"before you know what"},{"startTime":1132.86,"endTime":1134.897,"body":"the per capita GDP is,"},{"startTime":1134.897,"endTime":1136.15,"body":"and what data do you have"},{"startTime":1136.15,"endTime":1140.09,"body":"on what the gross"},{"startTime":1136.15,"endTime":1140.09,"body":"domestic product might be,"},{"startTime":1140.09,"endTime":1141.98,"body":"so it's a really, really difficult,"},{"startTime":1141.98,"endTime":1144.95,"body":"and one might say foolhardy enterprise,"},{"startTime":1144.95,"endTime":1149.39,"body":"so the figures come with"},{"startTime":1144.95,"endTime":1149.39,"body":"very serious health warnings."},{"startTime":1149.39,"endTime":1152.48,"body":"Nevertheless, despite that,"},{"startTime":1152.48,"endTime":1155.12,"body":"I have to tell you what they are"},{"startTime":1155.12,"endTime":1159.473,"body":"because these figures"},{"startTime":1155.12,"endTime":1159.473,"body":"are shaping the debate."},{"startTime":1161.45,"endTime":1164.51,"body":"One of the key arguments here,"},{"startTime":1164.51,"endTime":1166.31,"body":"Stephen Broadberry,"},{"startTime":1166.31,"endTime":1167.78,"body":"who is professor of economic history"},{"startTime":1167.78,"endTime":1169.313,"body":"at the University of Oxford,"},{"startTime":1170.24,"endTime":1171.53,"body":"I'm from the University of Cambridge,"},{"startTime":1171.53,"endTime":1174.473,"body":"so let's not become too much of a rival,"},{"startTime":1175.52,"endTime":1179.6,"body":"but he is arguing from this that, in fact,"},{"startTime":1179.6,"endTime":1184.07,"body":"the divergence happened much earlier."},{"startTime":1184.07,"endTime":1187.91,"body":"If you look at Italy,"},{"startTime":1187.91,"endTime":1192.86,"body":"Italy here pulled way ahead"},{"startTime":1187.91,"endTime":1192.86,"body":"of China, the red line,"},{"startTime":1192.86,"endTime":1194.84,"body":"by 1300,"},{"startTime":1194.84,"endTime":1197.39,"body":"that's where he claims he has the figures."},{"startTime":1197.39,"endTime":1198.47,"body":"So he's saying,"},{"startTime":1198.47,"endTime":1202.26,"body":"great divergence in per capita GDP"},{"startTime":1203.21,"endTime":1206.27,"body":"happens around about 1300."},{"startTime":1206.27,"endTime":1209.54,"body":"And then, Holland, the Netherlands,"},{"startTime":1209.54,"endTime":1213.983,"body":"pulls ahead in the 15th century,"},{"startTime":1215.66,"endTime":1217.493,"body":"until it stabilizes,"},{"startTime":1219.62,"endTime":1222.257,"body":"so he said that's the great"},{"startTime":1219.62,"endTime":1222.257,"body":"divergence happening there,"},{"startTime":1222.257,"endTime":1225.38,"body":"and then you have what he"},{"startTime":1222.257,"endTime":1225.38,"body":"calls the little divergence,"},{"startTime":1225.38,"endTime":1229.283,"body":"when England pulls ahead,"},{"startTime":1232.94,"endTime":1233.813,"body":"the yellow line,"},{"startTime":1234.68,"endTime":1236.0,"body":"and soars ahead."},{"startTime":1236.0,"endTime":1237.683,"body":"So you have the great divergence,"},{"startTime":1238.79,"endTime":1242.9,"body":"Southern Europe against"},{"startTime":1238.79,"endTime":1242.9,"body":"China, around 1300,"},{"startTime":1242.9,"endTime":1246.47,"body":"and then Northwest"},{"startTime":1242.9,"endTime":1246.47,"body":"Europe pulls ahead later,"},{"startTime":1246.47,"endTime":1247.733,"body":"so that's his argument."},{"startTime":1249.86,"endTime":1253.16,"body":"I've already said the data are suspect,"},{"startTime":1253.16,"endTime":1254.723,"body":"and so is the comparison."},{"startTime":1255.68,"endTime":1257.06,"body":"You might think"},{"startTime":1257.06,"endTime":1262.06,"body":"that comparing the most"},{"startTime":1257.06,"endTime":1262.06,"body":"prosperous small parts of Europe,"},{"startTime":1263.03,"endTime":1264.56,"body":"Italy, Holland,"},{"startTime":1264.56,"endTime":1266.66,"body":"with the whole of China"},{"startTime":1266.66,"endTime":1267.803,"body":"is just crazy,"},{"startTime":1268.76,"endTime":1270.62,"body":"so the data's dodgy,"},{"startTime":1270.62,"endTime":1272.96,"body":"but so is the scale"},{"startTime":1272.96,"endTime":1275.393,"body":"on which the argument"},{"startTime":1272.96,"endTime":1275.393,"body":"is being put forward."},{"startTime":1276.62,"endTime":1280.073,"body":"Steve Broadberry admits that himself,"},{"startTime":1281.12,"endTime":1282.77,"body":"so what he then tries to do"},{"startTime":1282.77,"endTime":1285.833,"body":"is break it down into regions,"},{"startTime":1287.21,"endTime":1291.53,"body":"and here we have the dotted line,"},{"startTime":1291.53,"endTime":1295.97,"body":"which is the leading"},{"startTime":1291.53,"endTime":1295.97,"body":"Chinese area, the Yangtze,"},{"startTime":1295.97,"endTime":1299.42,"body":"and the leading European areas."},{"startTime":1299.42,"endTime":1300.83,"body":"And according to that data,"},{"startTime":1300.83,"endTime":1302.66,"body":"if you're looking at regions,"},{"startTime":1302.66,"endTime":1307.58,"body":"the divergence is in the first"},{"startTime":1302.66,"endTime":1307.58,"body":"quarter of the 18th century."},{"startTime":1307.58,"endTime":1309.86,"body":"And notice what happens"},{"startTime":1307.58,"endTime":1309.86,"body":"according to this data,"},{"startTime":1309.86,"endTime":1314.86,"body":"China has a positive drop"},{"startTime":1309.86,"endTime":1314.86,"body":"in its per capita GDP"},{"startTime":1314.96,"endTime":1319.76,"body":"at a point when Europe,"},{"startTime":1314.96,"endTime":1319.76,"body":"the economic frontier,"},{"startTime":1319.76,"endTime":1323.03,"body":"which is Holland and England,"},{"startTime":1323.03,"endTime":1324.38,"body":"pulls ahead."},{"startTime":1324.38,"endTime":1326.33,"body":"So according to that data,"},{"startTime":1326.33,"endTime":1330.353,"body":"the divergence is in the first"},{"startTime":1326.33,"endTime":1330.353,"body":"quarter of the 18th century."},{"startTime":1332.51,"endTime":1336.713,"body":"Looking back on his earlier work,"},{"startTime":1339.02,"endTime":1343.67,"body":"Ken Pomeranz agrees with that proposition,"},{"startTime":1343.67,"endTime":1346.01,"body":"so he's now gone back from 1800"},{"startTime":1346.01,"endTime":1349.73,"body":"to the first quarter of the 18th century"},{"startTime":1349.73,"endTime":1351.503,"body":"as the divergence."},{"startTime":1352.52,"endTime":1355.79,"body":"So if we believe any of this data,"},{"startTime":1355.79,"endTime":1358.133,"body":"what conclusions can we draw from it?"},{"startTime":1359.87,"endTime":1361.733,"body":"I would draw three conclusions."},{"startTime":1362.57,"endTime":1364.31,"body":"The first conclusion is"},{"startTime":1364.31,"endTime":1366.61,"body":"abandon the attempt to produce data"},{"startTime":1366.61,"endTime":1369.95,"body":"on the scale of nations or continents,"},{"startTime":1369.95,"endTime":1374.18,"body":"and instead adopt a different approach,"},{"startTime":1374.18,"endTime":1378.32,"body":"probe into different"},{"startTime":1374.18,"endTime":1378.32,"body":"regions in Europe and Asia"},{"startTime":1378.32,"endTime":1380.81,"body":"to be more fine-grained and realistic,"},{"startTime":1380.81,"endTime":1383.66,"body":"and try and see how they actually worked,"},{"startTime":1383.66,"endTime":1385.7,"body":"how did they function,"},{"startTime":1385.7,"endTime":1388.28,"body":"understand the local economies,"},{"startTime":1388.28,"endTime":1390.83,"body":"how did the textiles industries operate,"},{"startTime":1390.83,"endTime":1392.9,"body":"how did they secure their credit,"},{"startTime":1392.9,"endTime":1394.64,"body":"how did they secure their capital,"},{"startTime":1394.64,"endTime":1398.69,"body":"what was the nature of the"},{"startTime":1394.64,"endTime":1398.69,"body":"relationship with the workforce,"},{"startTime":1398.69,"endTime":1399.65,"body":"above all,"},{"startTime":1399.65,"endTime":1403.193,"body":"how did industry relate"},{"startTime":1399.65,"endTime":1403.193,"body":"to the agrarian economy."},{"startTime":1404.15,"endTime":1407.27,"body":"And we have a massive amount"},{"startTime":1404.15,"endTime":1407.27,"body":"of detailed work on that"},{"startTime":1407.27,"endTime":1409.58,"body":"on European industrialization,"},{"startTime":1409.58,"endTime":1410.51,"body":"what we need to do"},{"startTime":1410.51,"endTime":1413.0,"body":"is to extend that to"},{"startTime":1410.51,"endTime":1413.0,"body":"other parts of the world,"},{"startTime":1413.0,"endTime":1415.73,"body":"and I'll start to do that"},{"startTime":1413.0,"endTime":1415.73,"body":"later on in the lecture."},{"startTime":1415.73,"endTime":1419.06,"body":"So, I think, my better proposition,"},{"startTime":1419.06,"endTime":1421.43,"body":"learn to walk before you run,"},{"startTime":1421.43,"endTime":1425.243,"body":"start from the local"},{"startTime":1421.43,"endTime":1425.243,"body":"and build up from that."},{"startTime":1426.26,"endTime":1429.44,"body":"The second conclusion"},{"startTime":1426.26,"endTime":1429.44,"body":"I've already mentioned,"},{"startTime":1429.44,"endTime":1431.48,"body":"which is Ken Pomeranz accepts"},{"startTime":1431.48,"endTime":1433.85,"body":"the earlier date of divergence,"},{"startTime":1433.85,"endTime":1436.49,"body":"so let's provisionally agree,"},{"startTime":1436.49,"endTime":1440.54,"body":"with all deference to the"},{"startTime":1436.49,"endTime":1440.54,"body":"extreme uncertainty of the data,"},{"startTime":1440.54,"endTime":1442.19,"body":"that the crucial turning point"},{"startTime":1442.19,"endTime":1446.513,"body":"is in the first quarter"},{"startTime":1442.19,"endTime":1446.513,"body":"of the 18th century."},{"startTime":1448.28,"endTime":1449.81,"body":"And we can also agree,"},{"startTime":1449.81,"endTime":1451.79,"body":"and this is beyond doubt,"},{"startTime":1451.79,"endTime":1454.16,"body":"that Indian and Chinese goods were,"},{"startTime":1454.16,"endTime":1455.57,"body":"as I've been suggesting,"},{"startTime":1455.57,"endTime":1459.32,"body":"highly competitive and"},{"startTime":1455.57,"endTime":1459.32,"body":"in high demand in Europe"},{"startTime":1459.32,"endTime":1462.08,"body":"from the 16th to the 18th century,"},{"startTime":1462.08,"endTime":1464.21,"body":"but that from the late 18th century,"},{"startTime":1464.21,"endTime":1467.15,"body":"European goods, largely British,"},{"startTime":1467.15,"endTime":1470.39,"body":"took over in third markets,"},{"startTime":1470.39,"endTime":1473.81,"body":"so started to compete in"},{"startTime":1470.39,"endTime":1473.81,"body":"West Africa, for example,"},{"startTime":1473.81,"endTime":1475.883,"body":"or in parts of Asia."},{"startTime":1477.02,"endTime":1479.06,"body":"So if we accept that,"},{"startTime":1479.06,"endTime":1482.663,"body":"I now need to turn to"},{"startTime":1479.06,"endTime":1482.663,"body":"ask why did it happen,"},{"startTime":1484.55,"endTime":1486.713,"body":"so why did the divergence happen?"},{"startTime":1490.43,"endTime":1494.27,"body":"Again, this is still very"},{"startTime":1490.43,"endTime":1494.27,"body":"much an open question,"},{"startTime":1494.27,"endTime":1496.28,"body":"still highly controversial,"},{"startTime":1496.28,"endTime":1498.26,"body":"and I hope I can lead you through it"},{"startTime":1498.26,"endTime":1501.56,"body":"to try and adopt some semblance"},{"startTime":1501.56,"endTime":1503.51,"body":"of what might be a convincing argument."},{"startTime":1505.19,"endTime":1509.723,"body":"The first argument is"},{"startTime":1505.19,"endTime":1509.723,"body":"ecological constraints."},{"startTime":1512.51,"endTime":1515.72,"body":"Before the late 18th and"},{"startTime":1512.51,"endTime":1515.72,"body":"early 19th centuries,"},{"startTime":1515.72,"endTime":1519.08,"body":"economies hit a limit of their resources,"},{"startTime":1519.08,"endTime":1520.853,"body":"what Robert Malthus talked about."},{"startTime":1521.72,"endTime":1525.62,"body":"The Malthusian ceiling"},{"startTime":1521.72,"endTime":1525.62,"body":"of disease and famine,"},{"startTime":1525.62,"endTime":1529.67,"body":"or population control by"},{"startTime":1525.62,"endTime":1529.67,"body":"late marriage, for example,"},{"startTime":1529.67,"endTime":1531.8,"body":"before the population falls back."},{"startTime":1531.8,"endTime":1534.77,"body":"So you have the Black Death,"},{"startTime":1534.77,"endTime":1536.27,"body":"this is the figures for England,"},{"startTime":1536.27,"endTime":1537.32,"body":"Black Death,"},{"startTime":1537.32,"endTime":1540.35,"body":"and then the population"},{"startTime":1537.32,"endTime":1540.35,"body":"doesn't get back to that level"},{"startTime":1540.35,"endTime":1545.35,"body":"until the late part of the 17th century,"},{"startTime":1545.48,"endTime":1548.72,"body":"and it then breaks through that ceiling"},{"startTime":1548.72,"endTime":1552.173,"body":"from the late 18th century in England."},{"startTime":1553.22,"endTime":1554.27,"body":"Not all countries do,"},{"startTime":1554.27,"endTime":1555.59,"body":"I mentioned Ireland,"},{"startTime":1555.59,"endTime":1556.61,"body":"where the population of Ireland"},{"startTime":1556.61,"endTime":1558.02,"body":"has still not got back to what it was"},{"startTime":1558.02,"endTime":1560.06,"body":"before the potato famine,"},{"startTime":1560.06,"endTime":1563.18,"body":"but England, and other"},{"startTime":1560.06,"endTime":1563.18,"body":"parts of Northwest Europe,"},{"startTime":1563.18,"endTime":1564.773,"body":"break through that ceiling."},{"startTime":1566.15,"endTime":1567.72,"body":"And Pomeranz argues"},{"startTime":1568.76,"endTime":1571.79,"body":"that the crucial reason for the divergence"},{"startTime":1571.79,"endTime":1573.92,"body":"is that Northwest Europe"},{"startTime":1573.92,"endTime":1576.93,"body":"broke through an ecological constraint"},{"startTime":1578.51,"endTime":1581.51,"body":"that the Yangtze Delta did not,"},{"startTime":1581.51,"endTime":1583.373,"body":"his comparison is only with China."},{"startTime":1584.48,"endTime":1588.17,"body":"He argues that there"},{"startTime":1584.48,"endTime":1588.17,"body":"are two factors at work"},{"startTime":1588.17,"endTime":1591.11,"body":"in this breach of the"},{"startTime":1588.17,"endTime":1591.11,"body":"ecological constraint."},{"startTime":1591.11,"endTime":1592.013,"body":"The first,"},{"startTime":1593.15,"endTime":1596.72,"body":"this is perhaps fairly timely"},{"startTime":1593.15,"endTime":1596.72,"body":"given COP27 at the moment,"},{"startTime":1596.72,"endTime":1600.62,"body":"fossil fuels, the use of coal,"},{"startTime":1600.62,"endTime":1603.92,"body":"the replacement of a flow of energy"},{"startTime":1603.92,"endTime":1607.28,"body":"from wind, water, animal, and humans"},{"startTime":1607.28,"endTime":1609.23,"body":"by a stock of coal,"},{"startTime":1609.23,"endTime":1611.3,"body":"from flow to stock,"},{"startTime":1611.3,"endTime":1614.363,"body":"from organic to inorganic energy."},{"startTime":1615.5,"endTime":1616.64,"body":"And coal, in England,"},{"startTime":1616.64,"endTime":1619.85,"body":"was easily transported"},{"startTime":1616.64,"endTime":1619.85,"body":"from the Tyne to London,"},{"startTime":1619.85,"endTime":1621.98,"body":"which became the world's largest city,"},{"startTime":1621.98,"endTime":1625.4,"body":"with a million people by 1800,"},{"startTime":1625.4,"endTime":1628.73,"body":"only rivaled by Edo, modern day Tokyo,"},{"startTime":1628.73,"endTime":1631.763,"body":"which also had a population"},{"startTime":1628.73,"endTime":1631.763,"body":"of about a million."},{"startTime":1633.2,"endTime":1634.91,"body":"This use of coal"},{"startTime":1634.91,"endTime":1637.82,"body":"acted as a stimulus to economic growth,"},{"startTime":1637.82,"endTime":1639.17,"body":"and the growth of London"},{"startTime":1639.17,"endTime":1641.78,"body":"acted as a stimulus to economic growth,"},{"startTime":1641.78,"endTime":1643.49,"body":"'cause if you have a large city,"},{"startTime":1643.49,"endTime":1646.97,"body":"other areas have to"},{"startTime":1643.49,"endTime":1646.97,"body":"specialize in growing grain,"},{"startTime":1646.97,"endTime":1648.8,"body":"or barley for beer,"},{"startTime":1648.8,"endTime":1650.21,"body":"and animals, and so on,"},{"startTime":1650.21,"endTime":1651.053,"body":"to feed it,"},{"startTime":1652.55,"endTime":1654.8,"body":"so specialization of agricultural areas"},{"startTime":1654.8,"endTime":1656.78,"body":"to provide food to London,"},{"startTime":1656.78,"endTime":1658.76,"body":"the constraint on whose"},{"startTime":1656.78,"endTime":1658.76,"body":"growth had been removed"},{"startTime":1658.76,"endTime":1661.103,"body":"by the ability to have coal."},{"startTime":1662.84,"endTime":1664.64,"body":"By using fossil fuels,"},{"startTime":1664.64,"endTime":1666.89,"body":"you're also releasing land"},{"startTime":1666.89,"endTime":1670.19,"body":"which would otherwise be"},{"startTime":1666.89,"endTime":1670.19,"body":"needed to provide wood"},{"startTime":1670.19,"endTime":1671.603,"body":"and to feed animals,"},{"startTime":1672.59,"endTime":1675.923,"body":"and the concept which"},{"startTime":1672.59,"endTime":1675.923,"body":"historians use is ghost acres,"},{"startTime":1676.91,"endTime":1681.91,"body":"how many acres would you have"},{"startTime":1676.91,"endTime":1681.91,"body":"needed to replace the coal."},{"startTime":1682.31,"endTime":1683.543,"body":"And Tony Wrigley,"},{"startTime":1684.982,"endTime":1686.99,"body":"who sadly recently died,"},{"startTime":1686.99,"endTime":1690.59,"body":"who was a colleague of mine in Cambridge,"},{"startTime":1690.59,"endTime":1695.59,"body":"argued that England had an"},{"startTime":1690.59,"endTime":1695.59,"body":"acreage of 35 million acres,"},{"startTime":1699.32,"endTime":1704.32,"body":"in 1815, you would need"},{"startTime":1699.32,"endTime":1704.32,"body":"an extra 15 million acres"},{"startTime":1704.72,"endTime":1706.193,"body":"to replace the coal."},{"startTime":1707.21,"endTime":1709.31,"body":"So the shortage of wood in England"},{"startTime":1709.31,"endTime":1710.99,"body":"leads to substitution by coal,"},{"startTime":1710.99,"endTime":1712.55,"body":"that leads to the steam engine,"},{"startTime":1712.55,"endTime":1714.293,"body":"improved smelting of iron,"},{"startTime":1715.43,"endTime":1717.35,"body":"leads to the railway,"},{"startTime":1715.43,"endTime":1717.35,"body":"leads to steam ships,"},{"startTime":1717.35,"endTime":1718.31,"body":"it all follows,"},{"startTime":1718.31,"endTime":1721.25,"body":"according to this"},{"startTime":1718.31,"endTime":1721.25,"body":"argument of Tony Wrigley,"},{"startTime":1721.25,"endTime":1725.843,"body":"from our Geordie coal miners."},{"startTime":1727.34,"endTime":1728.78,"body":"But more recently,"},{"startTime":1728.78,"endTime":1730.97,"body":"and this is going to be the"},{"startTime":1728.78,"endTime":1730.97,"body":"subject of my second lecture,"},{"startTime":1730.97,"endTime":1733.28,"body":"so I'm not going to say much about it now,"},{"startTime":1733.28,"endTime":1734.477,"body":"his argument is,"},{"startTime":1734.477,"endTime":1738.08,"body":"you also have an input of ghost acres,"},{"startTime":1738.08,"endTime":1739.76,"body":"of additional calories"},{"startTime":1739.76,"endTime":1741.503,"body":"coming from the New World."},{"startTime":1743.24,"endTime":1744.65,"body":"Pomeranz argues"},{"startTime":1744.65,"endTime":1749.65,"body":"that the New World provided"},{"startTime":1744.65,"endTime":1749.65,"body":"even more ghost acres."},{"startTime":1750.14,"endTime":1752.75,"body":"He calculates that to replace import"},{"startTime":1752.75,"endTime":1757.75,"body":"of raw cotton, sugar, and"},{"startTime":1752.75,"endTime":1757.75,"body":"timber from the New World,"},{"startTime":1758.03,"endTime":1763.03,"body":"you would have needed another"},{"startTime":1758.03,"endTime":1763.03,"body":"25 to 30 million acres"},{"startTime":1763.25,"endTime":1764.303,"body":"to replace that."},{"startTime":1765.74,"endTime":1767.12,"body":"So the argument here"},{"startTime":1767.12,"endTime":1771.47,"body":"is that the resource constraint"},{"startTime":1767.12,"endTime":1771.47,"body":"was avoided in Europe,"},{"startTime":1771.47,"endTime":1773.78,"body":"above all in Britain,"},{"startTime":1773.78,"endTime":1776.4,"body":"where coal and the Americas"},{"startTime":1777.41,"endTime":1781.76,"body":"allowed resource and"},{"startTime":1777.41,"endTime":1781.76,"body":"energy-intensive development,"},{"startTime":1781.76,"endTime":1784.31,"body":"and Asia didn't do this,"},{"startTime":1784.31,"endTime":1788.6,"body":"it turned to a labor-intensive,"},{"startTime":1784.31,"endTime":1788.6,"body":"resource-saving system."},{"startTime":1788.6,"endTime":1791.06,"body":"And we could add to that, also,"},{"startTime":1791.06,"endTime":1793.46,"body":"that the commodities"},{"startTime":1791.06,"endTime":1793.46,"body":"coming from the New World,"},{"startTime":1793.46,"endTime":1795.17,"body":"this is sugar cutting,"},{"startTime":1795.17,"endTime":1798.59,"body":"but also, of course, coffee, tobacco,"},{"startTime":1798.59,"endTime":1799.793,"body":"these are addictive,"},{"startTime":1800.81,"endTime":1803.57,"body":"and you also need cash to buy them,"},{"startTime":1803.57,"endTime":1805.53,"body":"and this leads to another idea"},{"startTime":1806.45,"endTime":1809.243,"body":"of what is called the"},{"startTime":1806.45,"endTime":1809.243,"body":"Industrious Revolution."},{"startTime":1810.17,"endTime":1811.19,"body":"If you're going to keep up"},{"startTime":1811.19,"endTime":1814.73,"body":"your consumption of these"},{"startTime":1811.19,"endTime":1814.73,"body":"addictive commodities,"},{"startTime":1814.73,"endTime":1817.34,"body":"then you need to have cash,"},{"startTime":1817.34,"endTime":1818.24,"body":"which means you have to work"},{"startTime":1818.24,"endTime":1820.763,"body":"in a marketized, commercialized economy."},{"startTime":1822.02,"endTime":1824.57,"body":"When you have that population"},{"startTime":1822.02,"endTime":1824.57,"body":"growth I talked about,"},{"startTime":1824.57,"endTime":1826.61,"body":"your wages are going to be squeezed,"},{"startTime":1826.61,"endTime":1828.95,"body":"but you're addicted to these substances,"},{"startTime":1828.95,"endTime":1830.42,"body":"so you work harder."},{"startTime":1830.42,"endTime":1832.79,"body":"Therefore, according to this view,"},{"startTime":1832.79,"endTime":1835.31,"body":"you have an industrious revolution,"},{"startTime":1835.31,"endTime":1838.19,"body":"people work longer hours"},{"startTime":1838.19,"endTime":1840.53,"body":"in order to keep up their consumption"},{"startTime":1840.53,"endTime":1843.203,"body":"of these commodities"},{"startTime":1840.53,"endTime":1843.203,"body":"imported from outside."},{"startTime":1845.3,"endTime":1847.1,"body":"The argument then of Pomeranz"},{"startTime":1847.1,"endTime":1848.753,"body":"is this doesn't happen in China,"},{"startTime":1850.246,"endTime":1851.18,"body":"that the relationship"},{"startTime":1851.18,"endTime":1853.68,"body":"between the prosperous"},{"startTime":1851.18,"endTime":1853.68,"body":"areas of the Yangtze Delta"},{"startTime":1854.54,"endTime":1857.03,"body":"and its hinterland,"},{"startTime":1857.03,"endTime":1859.34,"body":"which is an interior China,"},{"startTime":1859.34,"endTime":1862.19,"body":"which supplied the materials and the food,"},{"startTime":1862.19,"endTime":1864.89,"body":"was different from the relationship"},{"startTime":1864.89,"endTime":1868.673,"body":"between Northwest Europe"},{"startTime":1864.89,"endTime":1868.673,"body":"and the New World."},{"startTime":1871.31,"endTime":1873.71,"body":"And the argument that he puts forward"},{"startTime":1873.71,"endTime":1876.63,"body":"is that these areas in"},{"startTime":1873.71,"endTime":1876.63,"body":"the interior of China"},{"startTime":1877.64,"endTime":1879.113,"body":"had free labor,"},{"startTime":1880.4,"endTime":1883.52,"body":"unlike the plantation"},{"startTime":1880.4,"endTime":1883.52,"body":"economies of the New World,"},{"startTime":1883.52,"endTime":1887.183,"body":"their population grew more"},{"startTime":1883.52,"endTime":1887.183,"body":"than in the New World,"},{"startTime":1888.176,"endTime":1889.49,"body":"or in the Caribbean,"},{"startTime":1889.49,"endTime":1891.77,"body":"they developed their own industry,"},{"startTime":1891.77,"endTime":1893.81,"body":"which then reduced the surplus"},{"startTime":1893.81,"endTime":1898.81,"body":"that they could export to the"},{"startTime":1893.81,"endTime":1898.81,"body":"most advanced regions of China"},{"startTime":1898.85,"endTime":1900.113,"body":"on the Yangtze Delta."},{"startTime":1900.95,"endTime":1902.42,"body":"As a result, he says,"},{"startTime":1902.42,"endTime":1903.74,"body":"it was harder"},{"startTime":1903.74,"endTime":1907.16,"body":"for the leading and most"},{"startTime":1903.74,"endTime":1907.16,"body":"economically advanced regions"},{"startTime":1907.16,"endTime":1908.363,"body":"to keep growing."},{"startTime":1909.95,"endTime":1913.25,"body":"Well, that's the ecological argument,"},{"startTime":1913.25,"endTime":1915.65,"body":"which can be pushed a stage further"},{"startTime":1915.65,"endTime":1918.29,"body":"if we follow Prasannan Parthasarathi,"},{"startTime":1918.29,"endTime":1920.15,"body":"who I mentioned earlier on,"},{"startTime":1920.15,"endTime":1921.68,"body":"who makes three points,"},{"startTime":1921.68,"endTime":1924.893,"body":"referring to different parts of Asia."},{"startTime":1925.88,"endTime":1928.79,"body":"And this involves close study"},{"startTime":1928.79,"endTime":1930.92,"body":"of different parts of Asia,"},{"startTime":1930.92,"endTime":1932.96,"body":"looking at the local economies,"},{"startTime":1932.96,"endTime":1934.34,"body":"which is what I said is needed"},{"startTime":1934.34,"endTime":1936.8,"body":"more than national statistics."},{"startTime":1936.8,"endTime":1937.85,"body":"So he says, first of all,"},{"startTime":1937.85,"endTime":1939.74,"body":"China did have coal,"},{"startTime":1939.74,"endTime":1941.45,"body":"so it's not enough to say"},{"startTime":1941.45,"endTime":1943.7,"body":"that there was a serious"},{"startTime":1941.45,"endTime":1943.7,"body":"resource constraint,"},{"startTime":1944.6,"endTime":1947.39,"body":"there must be other factors at work there,"},{"startTime":1947.39,"endTime":1950.21,"body":"and he says the ecological"},{"startTime":1947.39,"endTime":1950.21,"body":"constraint there"},{"startTime":1950.21,"endTime":1952.97,"body":"was flooding and soil erosion"},{"startTime":1952.97,"endTime":1956.87,"body":"from deforestation and"},{"startTime":1952.97,"endTime":1956.87,"body":"cultivation of the hills."},{"startTime":1956.87,"endTime":1960.08,"body":"The Chinese state tried"},{"startTime":1956.87,"endTime":1960.08,"body":"to resolve those issues,"},{"startTime":1960.08,"endTime":1963.62,"body":"but was unable to prevent"},{"startTime":1960.08,"endTime":1963.62,"body":"continued movement onto the hills"},{"startTime":1963.62,"endTime":1967.1,"body":"and the cutting down of"},{"startTime":1963.62,"endTime":1967.1,"body":"trees and deforestation,"},{"startTime":1967.1,"endTime":1969.74,"body":"so settlement on the hillsides"},{"startTime":1967.1,"endTime":1969.74,"body":"of the Yangtze region"},{"startTime":1969.74,"endTime":1971.6,"body":"continued into the 19th century,"},{"startTime":1971.6,"endTime":1974.36,"body":"with disastrous ecological consequences,"},{"startTime":1974.36,"endTime":1977.063,"body":"and he says coal was not"},{"startTime":1974.36,"endTime":1977.063,"body":"enough to resolve that."},{"startTime":1979.31,"endTime":1982.22,"body":"But if we go to Japan, he says,"},{"startTime":1982.22,"endTime":1986.81,"body":"you have similar ecological"},{"startTime":1982.22,"endTime":1986.81,"body":"constraints of deforestation,"},{"startTime":1986.81,"endTime":1991.16,"body":"but there, the Tokugawa"},{"startTime":1986.81,"endTime":1991.16,"body":"Shogunate did deal with it."},{"startTime":1991.16,"endTime":1995.09,"body":"Here we have a Hokusai print"},{"startTime":1991.16,"endTime":1995.09,"body":"from the early 19th century,"},{"startTime":1995.09,"endTime":1999.353,"body":"and what you can see here is"},{"startTime":1995.09,"endTime":1999.353,"body":"reforestation on the hills."},{"startTime":2000.19,"endTime":2004.27,"body":"And from an edict of 1684,"},{"startTime":2004.27,"endTime":2009.27,"body":"the shogun managed the"},{"startTime":2004.27,"endTime":2009.27,"body":"forests and reforested,"},{"startTime":2011.59,"endTime":2013.987,"body":"controlled what was there and reforested,"},{"startTime":2013.987,"endTime":2016.423,"body":"and that was then followed by other lords."},{"startTime":2017.74,"endTime":2021.16,"body":"They did not break through"},{"startTime":2017.74,"endTime":2021.16,"body":"into the inorganic economy"},{"startTime":2021.16,"endTime":2022.6,"body":"that I was talking about in England,"},{"startTime":2022.6,"endTime":2024.763,"body":"but they stabilized the economy,"},{"startTime":2025.84,"endTime":2028.6,"body":"and this leads to a"},{"startTime":2025.84,"endTime":2028.6,"body":"little Asian divergence,"},{"startTime":2028.6,"endTime":2030.283,"body":"Japan moves ahead of China."},{"startTime":2032.14,"endTime":2033.88,"body":"And then, he says, India,"},{"startTime":2033.88,"endTime":2037.75,"body":"ah, India did not have an"},{"startTime":2033.88,"endTime":2037.75,"body":"ecological constraint, he says,"},{"startTime":2037.75,"endTime":2039.79,"body":"because it had lots of forests,"},{"startTime":2039.79,"endTime":2041.02,"body":"forests were still abundant,"},{"startTime":2041.02,"endTime":2042.453,"body":"so it didn't need to turn to coal,"},{"startTime":2042.453,"endTime":2044.74,"body":"and all that followed."},{"startTime":2044.74,"endTime":2046.51,"body":"So that would suggest,"},{"startTime":2046.51,"endTime":2048.73,"body":"if we use these comparisons,"},{"startTime":2048.73,"endTime":2052.63,"body":"it's not just a resource"},{"startTime":2048.73,"endTime":2052.63,"body":"constraint per se,"},{"startTime":2052.63,"endTime":2054.22,"body":"it's the response to it,"},{"startTime":2054.22,"endTime":2057.28,"body":"as in Japan, stabilize,"},{"startTime":2057.28,"endTime":2060.04,"body":"it's the nature of the"},{"startTime":2057.28,"endTime":2060.04,"body":"ecological constraint,"},{"startTime":2060.04,"endTime":2061.273,"body":"as in China."},{"startTime":2062.11,"endTime":2066.1,"body":"What he suggests is the"},{"startTime":2062.11,"endTime":2066.1,"body":"most important factor"},{"startTime":2066.1,"endTime":2068.14,"body":"is a second explanation,"},{"startTime":2068.14,"endTime":2073.14,"body":"which is competitive"},{"startTime":2068.14,"endTime":2073.14,"body":"challenge and state action."},{"startTime":2074.44,"endTime":2078.043,"body":"In his argument, the key is the state."},{"startTime":2079.45,"endTime":2081.22,"body":"It's often argued"},{"startTime":2081.22,"endTime":2084.7,"body":"by people of a certain"},{"startTime":2081.22,"endTime":2084.7,"body":"political persuasion"},{"startTime":2084.7,"endTime":2086.86,"body":"that industrialization in Britain occurred"},{"startTime":2086.86,"endTime":2088.363,"body":"despite the state,"},{"startTime":2089.855,"endTime":2091.33,"body":"it got in the way, it was inefficient,"},{"startTime":2091.33,"endTime":2092.8,"body":"it was an ancien regime."},{"startTime":2092.8,"endTime":2093.76,"body":"This argument says,"},{"startTime":2093.76,"endTime":2095.89,"body":"no, it wasn't,"},{"startTime":2095.89,"endTime":2098.5,"body":"it was how the state responded"},{"startTime":2098.5,"endTime":2101.263,"body":"to the competitive challenge from Asia."},{"startTime":2102.94,"endTime":2104.07,"body":"I've already been hinting at that"},{"startTime":2104.07,"endTime":2106.12,"body":"in what I've said so far."},{"startTime":2106.12,"endTime":2109.36,"body":"Britain has a large and"},{"startTime":2106.12,"endTime":2109.36,"body":"prosperous textile industry,"},{"startTime":2109.36,"endTime":2111.13,"body":"above all, wool,"},{"startTime":2111.13,"endTime":2114.373,"body":"which was a major exporter to Europe"},{"startTime":2114.373,"endTime":2115.993,"body":"from the Late Middle Ages."},{"startTime":2116.83,"endTime":2121.33,"body":"There was a major linen industry"},{"startTime":2116.83,"endTime":2121.33,"body":"in Scotland and Ireland,"},{"startTime":2121.33,"endTime":2123.7,"body":"because developing the"},{"startTime":2121.33,"endTime":2123.7,"body":"linen industry there"},{"startTime":2123.7,"endTime":2127.0,"body":"was a good way of stopping"},{"startTime":2123.7,"endTime":2127.0,"body":"people becoming Jacobites"},{"startTime":2127.0,"endTime":2129.88,"body":"and trying to overthrow"},{"startTime":2127.0,"endTime":2129.88,"body":"the Hanoverian Crown,"},{"startTime":2129.88,"endTime":2131.95,"body":"or to stop Irish Catholics"},{"startTime":2131.95,"endTime":2135.19,"body":"trying to overturn the order in Ireland,"},{"startTime":2135.19,"endTime":2137.86,"body":"so the development of a"},{"startTime":2135.19,"endTime":2137.86,"body":"textile industry, linen,"},{"startTime":2137.86,"endTime":2141.583,"body":"was about stability in the Celtic fringe."},{"startTime":2142.78,"endTime":2145.36,"body":"And we've also seen there"},{"startTime":2142.78,"endTime":2145.36,"body":"was a problem about,"},{"startTime":2145.36,"endTime":2146.8,"body":"as it was seen at the time,"},{"startTime":2146.8,"endTime":2148.603,"body":"the outflow of bullion."},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2152.98,"endTime":2155.443,"body":"India didn't have a resource constraint,"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2156.88,"endTime":2160.42,"body":"but what happened there, he says,"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2160.42,"endTime":2164.23,"body":"was it did not face a"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2160.42,"endTime":2164.23,"body":"competitive challenge."},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2164.23,"endTime":2166.96,"body":"England had a competitive"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2164.23,"endTime":2166.96,"body":"challenge from India,"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2166.96,"endTime":2169.303,"body":"India did not have a"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2166.96,"endTime":2169.303,"body":"competitive challenge."},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2170.38,"endTime":2173.86,"body":"And he argues that the"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2170.38,"endTime":2173.86,"body":"challenge from Asian imports"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2173.86,"endTime":2176.17,"body":"then led to state action"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2176.17,"endTime":2179.38,"body":"by a powerful English state."},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2179.38,"endTime":2181.72,"body":"In fact, you almost begin to think"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2181.72,"endTime":2184.927,"body":"that England in the 18th century"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2184.927,"endTime":2188.98,"body":"was a bit like post-war Japan or Korea,"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2188.98,"endTime":2191.38,"body":"with a powerful state"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2191.38,"endTime":2192.46,"body":"creating what is called"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2192.46,"endTime":2195.55,"body":"import-substituting industrialization,"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2195.55,"endTime":2198.88,"body":"you try to replace imports"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2195.55,"endTime":2198.88,"body":"by domestic production."},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2198.88,"endTime":2203.41,"body":"And indeed, looking at a"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2198.88,"endTime":2203.41,"body":"recent book by Giorgio Riello,"},{"speaker":"So this is what Parthasarathi says","startTime":2203.41,"endTime":2205.84,"body":"who is a historian of global cotton,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2207.88,"endTime":2211.06,"body":"import substitution is a key model"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2211.06,"endTime":2213.22,"body":"explaining why and how,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2213.22,"endTime":2215.2,"body":"in the course of the 18th century,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2215.2,"endTime":2218.77,"body":"the global center of"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2215.2,"endTime":2218.77,"body":"manufacturing of cotton textiles"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2218.77,"endTime":2221.74,"body":"moved from India to Europe,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2221.74,"endTime":2222.823,"body":"it's the state."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2223.96,"endTime":2225.91,"body":"British industrialization,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2223.96,"endTime":2225.91,"body":"according to this view,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2225.91,"endTime":2227.17,"body":"is state led."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2227.17,"endTime":2228.77,"body":"But there's a problem with this,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2230.17,"endTime":2232.27,"body":"it almost implies that people at the time"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2232.27,"endTime":2233.38,"body":"knew that the cotton industry"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2233.38,"endTime":2235.99,"body":"was going to be the key to"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2233.38,"endTime":2235.99,"body":"the Industrial Revolution,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2235.99,"endTime":2236.833,"body":"they didn't,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2238.899,"endTime":2241.6,"body":"it just became apparent later on."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2241.6,"endTime":2245.833,"body":"The state action was not intended"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2241.6,"endTime":2245.833,"body":"to create a new industry,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2248.02,"endTime":2249.91,"body":"it was intended"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2249.91,"endTime":2253.42,"body":"to maintain the existing"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2249.91,"endTime":2253.42,"body":"woolen and linen industries,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2253.42,"endTime":2255.04,"body":"prevent unemployment,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2255.04,"endTime":2257.68,"body":"to sustain political and social stability,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2257.68,"endTime":2259.0,"body":"as I've already said,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2259.0,"endTime":2262.42,"body":"to save on bullion exports,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2262.42,"endTime":2265.93,"body":"and also to raise revenue"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2262.42,"endTime":2265.93,"body":"from import duties"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2265.93,"endTime":2268.723,"body":"in order to pay for the army and the navy."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2270.07,"endTime":2272.11,"body":"The action by the state"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2272.11,"endTime":2275.89,"body":"did not arise from lobbying"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2272.11,"endTime":2275.89,"body":"by cotton industries,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2275.89,"endTime":2279.31,"body":"it came about because of"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2275.89,"endTime":2279.31,"body":"lobbying by the industries"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2279.31,"endTime":2284.02,"body":"which wanted to protect"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2279.31,"endTime":2284.02,"body":"their existing interests."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2284.02,"endTime":2289.02,"body":"Nevertheless, unintentionally"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2284.02,"endTime":2289.02,"body":"and unintended,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2289.72,"endTime":2291.79,"body":"action which was taken for other reasons"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2291.79,"endTime":2293.803,"body":"did help develop the cotton industry."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2295.33,"endTime":2296.77,"body":"How did that happen?"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2296.77,"endTime":2298.57,"body":"Well, in 1701,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2298.57,"endTime":2301.48,"body":"an act was passed in England"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2301.48,"endTime":2304.12,"body":"for the more effective employing the poor"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2304.12,"endTime":2306.613,"body":"by encouraging the"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2304.12,"endTime":2306.613,"body":"manufactures of the kingdom."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2307.78,"endTime":2311.74,"body":"It said that no imported"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2307.78,"endTime":2311.74,"body":"printed or dyed calicos"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2311.74,"endTime":2313.783,"body":"were to be worn in England and Wales."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2314.98,"endTime":2318.85,"body":"So if you couldn't wear imported"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2314.98,"endTime":2318.85,"body":"printed and dyed calicos,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2318.85,"endTime":2322.78,"body":"the obvious thing is to import"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2318.85,"endTime":2322.78,"body":"non-printed and dyed calicos,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2322.78,"endTime":2324.58,"body":"white cloth,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2324.58,"endTime":2326.833,"body":"and then to print and dye them in London."},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2328.78,"endTime":2331.78,"body":"So the East India Company,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2331.78,"endTime":2333.28,"body":"which was a major importer,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2333.28,"endTime":2334.99,"body":"wanted to maintain an open market,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2334.99,"endTime":2336.85,"body":"they were defeated,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2336.85,"endTime":2339.643,"body":"instead, you could still import,"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2340.81,"endTime":2345.81,"body":"but the local textile industry"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2345.91,"endTime":2346.831,"body":"didn't entirely get their way"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2346.831,"endTime":2349.18,"body":"because you could still"},{"speaker":"he says this","startTime":2346.831,"endTime":2349.18,"body":"bring in white cloth."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2351.52,"endTime":2353.32,"body":"there, the Dutch East India Company"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2353.32,"endTime":2357.64,"body":"brought all imports of"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2353.32,"endTime":2357.64,"body":"cotton cloth from India,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2357.64,"endTime":2358.473,"body":"which then meant"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2358.473,"endTime":2361.15,"body":"they destroyed the printing"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2358.473,"endTime":2361.15,"body":"and dyeing industry"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2361.15,"endTime":2363.46,"body":"in Amsterdam as well,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2363.46,"endTime":2366.16,"body":"so you've got a different"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2363.46,"endTime":2366.16,"body":"power balance going on here."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2367.54,"endTime":2370.24,"body":"The British state also then"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2367.54,"endTime":2370.24,"body":"introduced an import duty"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2370.24,"endTime":2372.49,"body":"on white calicos,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2372.49,"endTime":2375.013,"body":"which was at the level of 50% duty,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2375.88,"endTime":2379.54,"body":"so again, this is going to be"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2375.88,"endTime":2379.54,"body":"encouraging a local industry."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2379.54,"endTime":2381.313,"body":"And in 1721,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2384.28,"endTime":2385.48,"body":"the woolen industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2385.48,"endTime":2388.36,"body":"complaining about imported cotton,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2388.36,"endTime":2389.47,"body":"actually got an act"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2389.47,"endTime":2392.47,"body":"to prohibit the purchase"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2389.47,"endTime":2392.47,"body":"of printed calicos"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2392.47,"endTime":2394.963,"body":"made from imported Indian white cloth."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2396.46,"endTime":2398.02,"body":"You could actually denounce your neighbor"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2398.02,"endTime":2400.15,"body":"if you saw something"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2398.02,"endTime":2400.15,"body":"which they were wearing"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2400.15,"endTime":2401.35,"body":"which was a cotton cloth,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2401.35,"endTime":2402.31,"body":"you could shop them"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2402.31,"endTime":2406.24,"body":"and get a payment from the state,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2406.24,"endTime":2408.673,"body":"it was illegal to wear calico cloth."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2410.05,"endTime":2414.159,"body":"The result of this is it actually"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2410.05,"endTime":2414.159,"body":"develops another industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2414.159,"endTime":2415.36,"body":"fustians,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2415.36,"endTime":2418.15,"body":"which is a mixture of linen and cotton,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2418.15,"endTime":2419.08,"body":"because that act said"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2419.08,"endTime":2422.56,"body":"you could wear a linen and"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2419.08,"endTime":2422.56,"body":"cotton mixture, fustian."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2422.56,"endTime":2423.76,"body":"What this does"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2423.76,"endTime":2425.41,"body":"is actually boost the development"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2425.41,"endTime":2428.11,"body":"of the Lancashire fustian industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2428.11,"endTime":2430.693,"body":"which then forms the basis"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2428.11,"endTime":2430.693,"body":"of the cotton industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2431.83,"endTime":2436.15,"body":"and by 1774,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2436.15,"endTime":2437.83,"body":"they're getting their way,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2437.83,"endTime":2441.55,"body":"and you are then allowed"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2437.83,"endTime":2441.55,"body":"to wear all-cotton cloth"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2441.55,"endTime":2443.56,"body":"without being shopped by your neighbor"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2443.56,"endTime":2446.563,"body":"if they see it on the washing line."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2447.49,"endTime":2450.88,"body":"So what you see happening here"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2450.88,"endTime":2453.85,"body":"is that unintended action"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2453.85,"endTime":2456.82,"body":"to protect the woolen industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2453.85,"endTime":2456.82,"body":"and the linen industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2456.82,"endTime":2460.06,"body":"but not getting their entire way,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2460.06,"endTime":2465.06,"body":"is leading to the development"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2460.06,"endTime":2465.06,"body":"of a native, local industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2465.76,"endTime":2470.217,"body":"and by the third quarter"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2465.76,"endTime":2470.217,"body":"of the 18th century,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2474.13,"endTime":2476.02,"body":"this is taking over third markets,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2476.02,"endTime":2478.18,"body":"particularly in West Africa,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2478.18,"endTime":2480.73,"body":"and then later on in the Americas,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2480.73,"endTime":2483.76,"body":"and exports of cotton in 1800"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2483.76,"endTime":2488.05,"body":"were about 60% of the entire production."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2488.05,"endTime":2488.92,"body":"So the argument here"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2488.92,"endTime":2492.13,"body":"is it's being driven by"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2488.92,"endTime":2492.13,"body":"competition with India"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2492.13,"endTime":2494.44,"body":"in global markets."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2494.44,"endTime":2497.59,"body":"So so far, the argument"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2494.44,"endTime":2497.59,"body":"is saying two things:"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2497.59,"endTime":2499.39,"body":"resource constraints,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2499.39,"endTime":2502.0,"body":"which can be escaped from in Britain,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2502.0,"endTime":2504.64,"body":"which had coal and the"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2502.0,"endTime":2504.64,"body":"resources of the New World,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2504.64,"endTime":2505.843,"body":"more than the Yangtze,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2506.71,"endTime":2509.08,"body":"and then secondly, the argument is"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2509.08,"endTime":2511.27,"body":"India did not have a resource constraint,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2511.27,"endTime":2513.76,"body":"but it did not have the"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2511.27,"endTime":2513.76,"body":"competitive challenge"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2513.76,"endTime":2515.47,"body":"and didn't have the state action"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2515.47,"endTime":2517.483,"body":"to develop a local industry."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2520.45,"endTime":2523.03,"body":"Well, I think there can be an exaggeration"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2523.03,"endTime":2525.97,"body":"of the role of the state,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2525.97,"endTime":2529.24,"body":"it wasn't like Korea or Japan,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2529.24,"endTime":2531.763,"body":"but there's a third"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2529.24,"endTime":2531.763,"body":"argument which comes in,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2532.607,"endTime":2536.323,"body":"and this has almost become"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2532.607,"endTime":2536.323,"body":"an ideological argument."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2537.4,"endTime":2540.88,"body":"So you have the view"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2537.4,"endTime":2540.88,"body":"of the world historians"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2540.88,"endTime":2542.26,"body":"that I've been talking about,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2542.26,"endTime":2543.763,"body":"is that the state did it,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2544.75,"endTime":2546.63,"body":"and there's the view"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2544.75,"endTime":2546.63,"body":"of Stephen Broadberry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2546.63,"endTime":2548.376,"body":"an economic historian,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2548.376,"endTime":2550.183,"body":"no, no, no, no, it's the market,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2551.302,"endTime":2554.14,"body":"and the argument of Stephen Broadberry is,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2554.14,"endTime":2557.11,"body":"let's not exaggerate how"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2554.14,"endTime":2557.11,"body":"powerful the British state was"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2557.11,"endTime":2558.433,"body":"in the 18th century,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2560.44,"endTime":2561.79,"body":"it might have some impact,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2561.79,"endTime":2565.063,"body":"but rather, he said, it's wages."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2566.17,"endTime":2570.85,"body":"He said that wages in Lancashire"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2566.17,"endTime":2570.85,"body":"were higher than in India"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2570.85,"endTime":2573.25,"body":"by the early 18th century,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2573.25,"endTime":2578.05,"body":"productivity in England was"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2573.25,"endTime":2578.05,"body":"higher than it was in India,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2578.05,"endTime":2582.97,"body":"but nevertheless, the wages"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2578.05,"endTime":2582.97,"body":"in India become so low"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2582.97,"endTime":2585.253,"body":"that it's impossible to compete."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2587.47,"endTime":2592.42,"body":"And he argues that wages in India"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2592.42,"endTime":2596.773,"body":"were about 1/6 of the level"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2592.42,"endTime":2596.773,"body":"they were in Lancashire,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2598.48,"endTime":2600.88,"body":"so a huge discrepancy,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2600.88,"endTime":2602.015,"body":"and he looks at that"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2602.015,"endTime":2607.015,"body":"by converting wages into"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2602.015,"endTime":2607.015,"body":"the silver equivalent,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2607.18,"endTime":2610.36,"body":"how much silver would you have from that,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2610.36,"endTime":2611.563,"body":"so that's one measure."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2612.88,"endTime":2616.0,"body":"The other argument of other historians is,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2616.0,"endTime":2618.16,"body":"no, that's the wrong way of looking at it,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2618.16,"endTime":2621.94,"body":"it's how much food could"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2618.16,"endTime":2621.94,"body":"you buy with your wage,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2621.94,"endTime":2623.473,"body":"and according to that measure,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2624.79,"endTime":2626.44,"body":"the difference,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2626.44,"endTime":2627.82,"body":"this is the world historians,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2627.82,"endTime":2630.61,"body":"is not so wide at all."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2630.61,"endTime":2633.04,"body":"So okay, it depends upon"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2630.61,"endTime":2633.04,"body":"whose data you believe"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2633.04,"endTime":2634.69,"body":"whose argument you believe."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2634.69,"endTime":2636.31,"body":"So the Broadberry argument"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2636.31,"endTime":2640.3,"body":"is that it's all about wages,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2640.3,"endTime":2641.89,"body":"so the argument here is,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2641.89,"endTime":2644.59,"body":"wages in Britain are high,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2644.59,"endTime":2646.933,"body":"and that then leads to innovation."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2648.4,"endTime":2650.2,"body":"So it was a high-wage economy,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2650.2,"endTime":2653.17,"body":"leads to innovation,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2650.2,"endTime":2653.17,"body":"to higher productivity,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2653.17,"endTime":2658.09,"body":"which can then compensate"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2653.17,"endTime":2658.09,"body":"for the low wages of India,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2658.09,"endTime":2661.21,"body":"and that then, by about 1770,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2661.21,"endTime":2664.15,"body":"it's possible to take"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2661.21,"endTime":2664.15,"body":"over the third markets,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2664.15,"endTime":2665.65,"body":"by the 1830s,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2665.65,"endTime":2670.063,"body":"it's possible to take over the"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2665.65,"endTime":2670.063,"body":"internal market within India."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2673.6,"endTime":2674.433,"body":"The problem here"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2674.433,"endTime":2675.91,"body":"is you've got two completely"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2674.433,"endTime":2675.91,"body":"different sets of data"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2675.91,"endTime":2677.66,"body":"on what the wage differentials are,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2679.45,"endTime":2682.18,"body":"so the honest answer"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2679.45,"endTime":2682.18,"body":"is we don't really know"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2682.18,"endTime":2683.593,"body":"with any certainty."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2685.36,"endTime":2687.07,"body":"The best conclusion, I would argue,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2687.07,"endTime":2688.87,"body":"is that the discrepancy of wages"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2688.87,"endTime":2693.31,"body":"were not as high as Broadberry suggests."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2693.31,"endTime":2697.81,"body":"They would be way below"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2693.31,"endTime":2697.81,"body":"subsistence level if he was right,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2697.81,"endTime":2699.613,"body":"and I don't think that that is true."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2700.51,"endTime":2704.033,"body":"What is argued by another historian,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2707.44,"endTime":2710.14,"body":"also from Oxford, Robert Allen,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2710.14,"endTime":2713.59,"body":"is that, probably, in the"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2710.14,"endTime":2713.59,"body":"middle of the 18th century,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2713.59,"endTime":2714.82,"body":"the wage rate"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2714.82,"endTime":2718.33,"body":"in the most prosperous"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2714.82,"endTime":2718.33,"body":"parts of China and India"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2718.33,"endTime":2719.65,"body":"were about the same"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2719.65,"endTime":2723.283,"body":"as the wage rates in"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2719.65,"endTime":2723.283,"body":"Southern European cities,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2724.51,"endTime":2725.74,"body":"that does seem,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2725.74,"endTime":2728.02,"body":"from data on the local level,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2728.02,"endTime":2730.15,"body":"that seems to be about right,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2730.15,"endTime":2734.02,"body":"but that Northwest Europe"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2730.15,"endTime":2734.02,"body":"had already pulled ahead."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2734.02,"endTime":2737.383,"body":"So again, we need look in a"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2734.02,"endTime":2737.383,"body":"more fine-grained way at this."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2740.5,"endTime":2742.87,"body":"What I would like to argue"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2742.87,"endTime":2747.46,"body":"is that there are two other"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2742.87,"endTime":2747.46,"body":"arguments which are better,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2747.46,"endTime":2749.05,"body":"we nee to move even further,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2749.05,"endTime":2752.893,"body":"and I'm now, in the last"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2749.05,"endTime":2752.893,"body":"moments of the lecture,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2752.893,"endTime":2754.27,"body":"I am going to suggest"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2754.27,"endTime":2756.57,"body":"what I think is a better"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2754.27,"endTime":2756.57,"body":"way of looking at it."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2761.11,"endTime":2763.36,"body":"The first of my better arguments"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2763.36,"endTime":2767.083,"body":"is social structure and"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2763.36,"endTime":2767.083,"body":"economic development."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2768.61,"endTime":2770.443,"body":"And if you look at this data here,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2771.4,"endTime":2774.5,"body":"you see that there are very big contrasts"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2775.51,"endTime":2779.503,"body":"between what is happening"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2775.51,"endTime":2779.503,"body":"in England and in Europe."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2780.79,"endTime":2783.31,"body":"18th century England was unusual"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2783.31,"endTime":2787.27,"body":"in having a very rapid release"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2783.31,"endTime":2787.27,"body":"of labor from the land,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2787.27,"endTime":2790.21,"body":"sorry, that line is skipped a bit."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2790.21,"endTime":2794.563,"body":"So in Britain, at a per"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2790.21,"endTime":2794.563,"body":"capita income of $550,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2799.21,"endTime":2800.043,"body":"where are we?"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2800.043,"endTime":2801.55,"body":"Something's gone wrong"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2800.043,"endTime":2801.55,"body":"with the way that data"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2801.55,"endTime":2802.51,"body":"is laid out there."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2802.51,"endTime":2803.343,"body":"The basic point"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2803.343,"endTime":2807.01,"body":"is that England released"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2803.343,"endTime":2807.01,"body":"labor from the countryside"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2807.01,"endTime":2811.587,"body":"at a much earlier period than did France,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2813.64,"endTime":2818.64,"body":"and most urbanization in"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2813.64,"endTime":2818.64,"body":"Europe, in the 18th century,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2819.25,"endTime":2820.123,"body":"was in England."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2821.56,"endTime":2825.49,"body":"You see that the urbanization"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2821.56,"endTime":2825.49,"body":"goes up from 6% to 24%"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2825.49,"endTime":2826.45,"body":"in England"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2826.45,"endTime":2829.9,"body":"where it doesn't really"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2826.45,"endTime":2829.9,"body":"go up at all in Europe,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2829.9,"endTime":2834.13,"body":"and most of the gain in"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2829.9,"endTime":2834.13,"body":"European urban population"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2834.13,"endTime":2835.27,"body":"was in England,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2835.27,"endTime":2840.27,"body":"70% of all population growth"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2835.27,"endTime":2840.27,"body":"in cities was in England"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2840.61,"endTime":2844.3,"body":"in the later years of the 18th century."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2844.3,"endTime":2848.68,"body":"So taking the data on agriculture,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2848.68,"endTime":2851.02,"body":"in Britain, 1840,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2851.02,"endTime":2854.053,"body":"28.6% of male workers were in agriculture,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2855.28,"endTime":2856.93,"body":"that figure should be over there,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2856.93,"endTime":2860.053,"body":"and there were 47.3% in industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2863.86,"endTime":2864.91,"body":"whereas in France,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2864.91,"endTime":2869.47,"body":"50.6% were in agriculture,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2864.91,"endTime":2869.47,"body":"only 28.7% in industry,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2869.47,"endTime":2873.283,"body":"apologies that the lines"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2869.47,"endTime":2873.283,"body":"somehow got muddled there."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2875.77,"endTime":2877.06,"body":"The other point here, then,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2877.06,"endTime":2880.09,"body":"is you've got high urbanization"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2877.06,"endTime":2880.09,"body":"going on in England,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2880.09,"endTime":2882.49,"body":"release of population from the land,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2882.49,"endTime":2887.49,"body":"but also, you have a big"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2882.49,"endTime":2887.49,"body":"difference in size of farms."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2887.65,"endTime":2891.43,"body":"The average farm size in England in 1700"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2891.43,"endTime":2893.83,"body":"was about 75 acres,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2893.83,"endTime":2897.043,"body":"in the Yangtze Delta, it was 1.9 acres."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2897.94,"endTime":2902.41,"body":"By 1800, the average farm size in England"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2902.41,"endTime":2904.453,"body":"had gone up about threefold,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2905.95,"endTime":2910.81,"body":"and the labor cost of a large animal farm"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2910.81,"endTime":2913.72,"body":"was about 1/3 that of a small farm."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2913.72,"endTime":2916.18,"body":"So English farms were"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2913.72,"endTime":2916.18,"body":"bigger to start with,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2916.18,"endTime":2917.68,"body":"and they get even bigger,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2917.68,"endTime":2919.72,"body":"and that improves labor productivity,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2919.72,"endTime":2924.72,"body":"which then allows the release"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2919.72,"endTime":2924.72,"body":"of labor from the land"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2925.42,"endTime":2926.803,"body":"into the towns."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2928.78,"endTime":2930.91,"body":"In England, in 1801,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2930.91,"endTime":2933.82,"body":"24% of the population was in towns,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2933.82,"endTime":2937.75,"body":"in the Yangtze, 1840, only 11%."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2937.75,"endTime":2940.753,"body":"So there's a big difference"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2937.75,"endTime":2940.753,"body":"here in urbanization,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2942.16,"endTime":2946.3,"body":"release of labor from"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2942.16,"endTime":2946.3,"body":"the land into the towns."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2946.3,"endTime":2947.92,"body":"Why?"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2947.92,"endTime":2949.6,"body":"And this is where we need to drill down"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2949.6,"endTime":2950.923,"body":"into social structure,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2952.84,"endTime":2955.0,"body":"let's look at it very, very quickly."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2955.0,"endTime":2957.7,"body":"In England, Black Death,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2957.7,"endTime":2959.29,"body":"which I mentioned earlier on,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2959.29,"endTime":2961.48,"body":"leads to an end of serfdom,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2961.48,"endTime":2963.343,"body":"it leads to an end of forced labor,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2964.45,"endTime":2967.51,"body":"but the feudal lords"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2967.51,"endTime":2970.3,"body":"increasingly gained ownership of the land."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2970.3,"endTime":2972.16,"body":"So they lose forced labor,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2972.16,"endTime":2974.51,"body":"but they get more secure"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2972.16,"endTime":2974.51,"body":"ownership of the land,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2975.43,"endTime":2977.023,"body":"and instead of peasants,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2977.92,"endTime":2980.02,"body":"they have tenant farmers."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2980.02,"endTime":2983.71,"body":"Both tenant farmers and landlords"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2983.71,"endTime":2988.71,"body":"have an incentive in"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2983.71,"endTime":2988.71,"body":"maximizing their cash income,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2988.99,"endTime":2993.99,"body":"using the best availability"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2988.99,"endTime":2993.99,"body":"of their resources."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2994.87,"endTime":2997.21,"body":"Tenants pay cash rent,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2997.21,"endTime":2998.86,"body":"they want to maximize the cash rent,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":2998.86,"endTime":3002.452,"body":"landlords want to maximize the cash rent."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3002.452,"endTime":3005.7,"body":"The landlords invest in"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3002.452,"endTime":3005.7,"body":"improved productivity,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3005.7,"endTime":3008.07,"body":"in farm buildings, in drainage, and so on,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3008.07,"endTime":3011.673,"body":"the tenants invest in"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3008.07,"endTime":3011.673,"body":"livestock and machinery."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3012.75,"endTime":3014.82,"body":"Labor is released to the land"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3014.82,"endTime":3017.553,"body":"when its marginal"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3014.82,"endTime":3017.553,"body":"productivity started to climb."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3018.87,"endTime":3020.64,"body":"There's incentive to use resources"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3020.64,"endTime":3022.203,"body":"to maximize returns."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3023.1,"endTime":3025.89,"body":"That does not apply to the Yangtze,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3025.89,"endTime":3026.88,"body":"different structure."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3026.88,"endTime":3028.53,"body":"In the Yangtze,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3028.53,"endTime":3032.493,"body":"the peasants attained"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3028.53,"endTime":3032.493,"body":"effective security of tenure,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3034.56,"endTime":3036.843,"body":"the lords had legal ownership of the land."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3037.68,"endTime":3042.483,"body":"The peasants with secure tenure"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3037.68,"endTime":3042.483,"body":"subdivide their holdings,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3043.5,"endTime":3044.46,"body":"labor-intensive,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3044.46,"endTime":3045.693,"body":"a bit like in Ireland."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3046.83,"endTime":3048.24,"body":"With pressure on resources,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3048.24,"endTime":3052.89,"body":"they turn to industry in a"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3048.24,"endTime":3052.89,"body":"struggle to maintain subsistence,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3052.89,"endTime":3054.57,"body":"but they don't have the income"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3054.57,"endTime":3057.273,"body":"to generate new investment in machinery."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3058.23,"endTime":3061.35,"body":"In England, most of the"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3058.23,"endTime":3061.35,"body":"industrial work in the countryside"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3061.35,"endTime":3064.5,"body":"is by people who specialize"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3061.35,"endTime":3064.5,"body":"in industrial production"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3064.5,"endTime":3068.853,"body":"rather than always being by"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3064.5,"endTime":3068.853,"body":"employment from agriculture."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3070.59,"endTime":3071.61,"body":"in the Yangtze,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3071.61,"endTime":3075.75,"body":"the lords had rents which"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3071.61,"endTime":3075.75,"body":"were high and fixed,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3075.75,"endTime":3079.29,"body":"they had no interest in improving"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3075.75,"endTime":3079.29,"body":"production or investment,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3079.29,"endTime":3083.97,"body":"instead, they spent their income"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3079.29,"endTime":3083.97,"body":"on conspicuous consumption"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3083.97,"endTime":3085.08,"body":"and preparing children"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3085.08,"endTime":3087.84,"body":"for examination for official positions,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3087.84,"endTime":3091.02,"body":"which were the main way of"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3087.84,"endTime":3091.02,"body":"securing wealth and status."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3091.02,"endTime":3093.52,"body":"So you've got a different nature"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3091.02,"endTime":3093.52,"body":"of elites in the two areas,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3093.52,"endTime":3094.83,"body":"and a different nature"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3094.83,"endTime":3097.98,"body":"of the people who actually work the farms,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3097.98,"endTime":3100.683,"body":"bigger in England, smaller in Yangtze,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3101.76,"endTime":3104.103,"body":"tenant farmers, peasant farmers."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3105.39,"endTime":3110.04,"body":"So I think we need to drill"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3105.39,"endTime":3110.04,"body":"down into these divergences,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3110.04,"endTime":3112.14,"body":"and there are also"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3110.04,"endTime":3112.14,"body":"divergences within Europe,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3112.14,"endTime":3114.33,"body":"which I haven't go time to go into,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3114.33,"endTime":3116.55,"body":"with the restoration of serfdom"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3116.55,"endTime":3119.463,"body":"in Central and Eastern"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3116.55,"endTime":3119.463,"body":"Europe, for example."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3120.33,"endTime":3121.92,"body":"So what I'm arguing here"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3121.92,"endTime":3124.89,"body":"is that we need to look"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3121.92,"endTime":3124.89,"body":"at the internal dynamics"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3124.89,"endTime":3127.2,"body":"of the political and social structure"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3127.2,"endTime":3128.82,"body":"to help explain the diverging patterns"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3128.82,"endTime":3130.023,"body":"of economic development."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3131.07,"endTime":3132.183,"body":"And then, finally,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3134.46,"endTime":3136.05,"body":"I think the state is important,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3136.05,"endTime":3137.313,"body":"but in a different way,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3138.15,"endTime":3140.31,"body":"it's through maritime trade"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3140.31,"endTime":3143.523,"body":"and what I call the fiscal-military state."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3145.59,"endTime":3147.24,"body":"We've noticed so far"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3147.24,"endTime":3150.51,"body":"that the New World helps escape"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3150.51,"endTime":3152.493,"body":"from the constraints on resources,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3153.51,"endTime":3155.07,"body":"they produce new commodities,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3155.07,"endTime":3158.193,"body":"but how do you get hold of the"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3155.07,"endTime":3158.193,"body":"New World in the first place?"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3159.42,"endTime":3160.74,"body":"We've also noticed"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3160.74,"endTime":3162.63,"body":"that the Dutch and East India companies"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3162.63,"endTime":3164.58,"body":"arrive in both China and India"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3164.58,"endTime":3166.11,"body":"to engage in trade,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3166.11,"endTime":3167.67,"body":"before, in the 19th century,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3167.67,"endTime":3169.653,"body":"they become more territorial."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3171.15,"endTime":3175.41,"body":"Both of these patterns"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3171.15,"endTime":3175.41,"body":"rely upon maritime power,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3175.41,"endTime":3177.09,"body":"and that is one of the major differences"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3177.09,"endTime":3178.323,"body":"between Europe and Asia."},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3180.96,"endTime":3184.14,"body":"Asia is territorial power,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3184.14,"endTime":3187.683,"body":"what J.C. Sharman calls lords of the land,"},{"speaker":"In Holland, a different thing happens","startTime":3189.72,"endTime":3192.333,"body":"Northwest Europe is maritime power."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3195.247,"endTime":3200.167,"body":"\"It was only in overseas"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3195.247,"endTime":3200.167,"body":"colonization and armed trade"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3200.167,"endTime":3203.047,"body":"\"that England's institutions helped,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3203.047,"endTime":3205.5,"body":"\"gave it a crucial advantage.\""},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3205.5,"endTime":3210.0,"body":"There's nothing similar to the"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3205.5,"endTime":3210.0,"body":"fiscal-military state in Asia"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3210.0,"endTime":3213.69,"body":"to what we have in Holland,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3210.0,"endTime":3213.69,"body":"and then in England."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3213.69,"endTime":3216.78,"body":"European countries engage"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3213.69,"endTime":3216.78,"body":"in long-distance trade,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3216.78,"endTime":3219.03,"body":"supported by powerful navies"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3219.03,"endTime":3221.85,"body":"and the creation of"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3219.03,"endTime":3221.85,"body":"export-oriented colonies,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3221.85,"endTime":3223.713,"body":"unlike their counterparts in Asia."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3225.12,"endTime":3227.37,"body":"Now, there are differences within Europe,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3227.37,"endTime":3231.63,"body":"it doesn't always work out"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3227.37,"endTime":3231.63,"body":"that way in Portugal and Spain,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3231.63,"endTime":3234.603,"body":"but I would say that there"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3231.63,"endTime":3234.603,"body":"were two factors at work here,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3236.04,"endTime":3238.713,"body":"one is an efficient fiscal state,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3240.45,"endTime":3244.41,"body":"there is no major tax revolt"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3240.45,"endTime":3244.41,"body":"in England after the civil war"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3244.41,"endTime":3246.48,"body":"and no default on debts,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3246.48,"endTime":3250.5,"body":"whereas France was almost"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3246.48,"endTime":3250.5,"body":"always in default on its debts"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3250.5,"endTime":3251.583,"body":"in the 18th century."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3252.42,"endTime":3256.35,"body":"You have a stable and"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3252.42,"endTime":3256.35,"body":"powerful fiscal regime,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3256.35,"endTime":3257.55,"body":"I've written a whole book about this"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3257.55,"endTime":3260.58,"body":"so I won't go into it in any detail now."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3260.58,"endTime":3262.38,"body":"You have the excise officer,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3262.38,"endTime":3264.78,"body":"a bureaucratic, efficient man,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3264.78,"endTime":3267.48,"body":"collecting on beer, in this case,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3267.48,"endTime":3270.267,"body":"or wine, and so on."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3270.267,"endTime":3271.11,"body":"And that leads"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3271.11,"endTime":3274.14,"body":"to an efficient and"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3271.11,"endTime":3274.14,"body":"effective financial sector,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3274.14,"endTime":3276.03,"body":"the government is issuing bonds,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3276.03,"endTime":3278.79,"body":"that leads then to the"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3276.03,"endTime":3278.79,"body":"growth around here in London,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3278.79,"endTime":3281.25,"body":"to the stock exchange,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3278.79,"endTime":3281.25,"body":"the Bank of England,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3281.25,"endTime":3284.64,"body":"and that can then help"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3281.25,"endTime":3284.64,"body":"generate a financial sector,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3284.64,"endTime":3286.173,"body":"which helps industrialization."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3287.545,"endTime":3288.867,"body":"And then the second point is,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3288.867,"endTime":3292.47,"body":"the stable revenue from the taxes"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3292.47,"endTime":3294.45,"body":"can lead to large scale investment"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3294.45,"endTime":3297.36,"body":"in naval dockyards and ships,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3297.36,"endTime":3302.36,"body":"as, in this picture of 1757, at Deptford."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3302.55,"endTime":3305.07,"body":"So, as Sharman argued,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3305.07,"endTime":3307.8,"body":"China, the Mughal Empire,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3305.07,"endTime":3307.8,"body":"the Ottoman Empire"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3307.8,"endTime":3310.08,"body":"were land based, with large armies,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3310.08,"endTime":3312.12,"body":"Holland and England were maritime,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3312.12,"endTime":3313.41,"body":"and that was crucial"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3313.41,"endTime":3316.26,"body":"in securing the resources"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3313.41,"endTime":3316.26,"body":"of the New World,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3316.26,"endTime":3319.29,"body":"so the difference"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3316.26,"endTime":3319.29,"body":"between lords of the land"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3319.29,"endTime":3321.513,"body":"and masters of the sea."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3322.41,"endTime":3327.0,"body":"So, my conclusion is that this debate"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3327.0,"endTime":3328.38,"body":"of the great divergence"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3328.38,"endTime":3331.89,"body":"is one of the major historical"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3328.38,"endTime":3331.89,"body":"issues at the moment."},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3331.89,"endTime":3333.9,"body":"It's at an early stage,"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3333.9,"endTime":3336.69,"body":"we need to move beyond"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3333.9,"endTime":3336.69,"body":"the general statements"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3336.69,"endTime":3338.58,"body":"based upon dubious statistics"},{"speaker":"And this is what Pomeranz says","startTime":3338.58,"endTime":3342.15,"body":"to probe into more specific issues."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3344.1,"endTime":3347.04,"body":"it's about resources, and"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3344.1,"endTime":3347.04,"body":"how they were made available,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3347.04,"endTime":3350.52,"body":"it's about competitive"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3347.04,"endTime":3350.52,"body":"responses and adaptability,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3350.52,"endTime":3352.05,"body":"it's about state action,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3352.05,"endTime":3356.22,"body":"and I would say it's more about"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3352.05,"endTime":3356.22,"body":"this fiscal-military state,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3356.22,"endTime":3358.683,"body":"it's about the level of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3356.22,"endTime":3358.683,"body":"wages and productivity."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3359.67,"endTime":3360.503,"body":"Above all,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3360.503,"endTime":3363.54,"body":"it's about the organization"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3360.503,"endTime":3363.54,"body":"of agriculture and industry,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3363.54,"endTime":3364.95,"body":"and the incentives that gave"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3364.95,"endTime":3368.553,"body":"to the efficient allocation"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3364.95,"endTime":3368.553,"body":"of resources and innovation."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3369.63,"endTime":3373.713,"body":"But these debates are"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3369.63,"endTime":3373.713,"body":"also matters for us today,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3374.67,"endTime":3377.85,"body":"because there's a sense of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3374.67,"endTime":3377.85,"body":"resentment of rising powers,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3377.85,"endTime":3380.37,"body":"which wish to regain their lost position,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3380.37,"endTime":3381.45,"body":"like China,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3381.45,"endTime":3384.813,"body":"with the current convergence,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3385.74,"endTime":3386.61,"body":"and especially a sense"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3386.61,"endTime":3389.793,"body":"that European actions led to"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3386.61,"endTime":3389.793,"body":"the decline of their economies,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3390.793,"endTime":3391.98,"body":"and that links to another point,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3391.98,"endTime":3393.78,"body":"which is climate."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3393.78,"endTime":3396.87,"body":"Europe embarked on energy-intensive uses,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3396.87,"endTime":3400.05,"body":"we're now experiencing the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3396.87,"endTime":3400.05,"body":"consequences in climate change,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3400.05,"endTime":3402.42,"body":"and the issue which is at COP27 is,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3402.42,"endTime":3406.14,"body":"should Europe now compensate"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3402.42,"endTime":3406.14,"body":"those who are developing,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3406.14,"endTime":3409.293,"body":"how should the costs of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3406.14,"endTime":3409.293,"body":"net zero be allocated?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3410.28,"endTime":3413.82,"body":"So I think the history"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3410.28,"endTime":3413.82,"body":"is not dead and buried,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3413.82,"endTime":3416.67,"body":"it's very much present"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3413.82,"endTime":3416.67,"body":"and with us at the moment."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3416.67,"endTime":3417.699,"body":"Thank you."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3417.699,"endTime":3420.699,"body":"(audience applauds)"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3421.878,"endTime":3425.01,"body":"- I'm going to take two from"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3421.878,"endTime":3425.01,"body":"online if we can get them,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3425.01,"endTime":3426.558,"body":"before going to the room,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3426.558,"endTime":3427.553,"body":"if that's all right."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3427.553,"endTime":3432.15,"body":"There's one here about"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3427.553,"endTime":3432.15,"body":"British colonialism in India,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3432.15,"endTime":3437.15,"body":"pointing out that India"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3432.15,"endTime":3437.15,"body":"had 25% of the world GDP"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3437.43,"endTime":3439.02,"body":"before British colonialism,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3439.02,"endTime":3441.18,"body":"and it obviously saw relative decline,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3441.18,"endTime":3442.74,"body":"and should we attribute that"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3442.74,"endTime":3445.35,"body":"to the British coming along,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3445.35,"endTime":3449.107,"body":"and leaking the wealth, and carrying it?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3449.107,"endTime":3449.94,"body":"- That's a very good question,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3449.94,"endTime":3453.693,"body":"which I'm going to answer in"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3449.94,"endTime":3453.693,"body":"my third lecture of the series."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3454.54,"endTime":3456.157,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3456.157,"endTime":3460.47,"body":"Of course, this is very a big topic,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3460.47,"endTime":3464.28,"body":"I was pointing out that, by about 1830,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3464.28,"endTime":3469.28,"body":"it's possible for British"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3464.28,"endTime":3469.28,"body":"textiles from Lancashire"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3470.34,"endTime":3473.16,"body":"to penetrate the Indian market,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3473.16,"endTime":3474.81,"body":"and of course, was it Karl Marx,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3474.81,"endTime":3476.79,"body":"who famously said that the plains of India"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3476.79,"endTime":3477.623,"body":"are bleached white"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3477.623,"endTime":3480.363,"body":"by the bones of the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3477.623,"endTime":3480.363,"body":"starving hand-loom weavers?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3481.23,"endTime":3485.19,"body":"So there's the argument"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3481.23,"endTime":3485.19,"body":"which then goes into Naoroji,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3485.19,"endTime":3487.44,"body":"and the drain theory,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3487.44,"endTime":3492.44,"body":"which is that there's a drain"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3487.44,"endTime":3492.44,"body":"of wealth away from India,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3493.68,"endTime":3496.08,"body":"there's the argument that investment"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3496.08,"endTime":3498.63,"body":"in things like irrigation"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3496.08,"endTime":3498.63,"body":"and Indian railways"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3498.63,"endTime":3500.34,"body":"is export-orientated"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3500.34,"endTime":3502.863,"body":"to take goods out of India, not inside,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3504.642,"endTime":3505.8,"body":"and that can lead to famine."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3505.8,"endTime":3508.07,"body":"So there's a huge debate over this,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3508.07,"endTime":3511.74,"body":"and I'm going to spend a whole"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3508.07,"endTime":3511.74,"body":"50 minutes talking about it"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3511.74,"endTime":3514.17,"body":"in my third lecture,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3514.17,"endTime":3516.18,"body":"so watch this space,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3516.18,"endTime":3517.98,"body":"I think is the answer to that."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3517.98,"endTime":3520.2,"body":"It's a very major argument,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3520.2,"endTime":3521.97,"body":"I've just finished a book at the moment"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3521.97,"endTime":3525.15,"body":"which is about post-Second"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3521.97,"endTime":3525.15,"body":"World War reconstruction"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3525.15,"endTime":3527.34,"body":"of the world economy,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3527.34,"endTime":3532.34,"body":"and that was very much the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3527.34,"endTime":3532.34,"body":"argument of Nehru and others"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3533.19,"endTime":3534.72,"body":"at Bretton Woods,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3534.72,"endTime":3538.23,"body":"which is, you've now got to"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3534.72,"endTime":3538.23,"body":"provide the development for us,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3538.23,"endTime":3541.83,"body":"you've got to redress this balance,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3541.83,"endTime":3546.21,"body":"so I think that's very much"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3541.83,"endTime":3546.21,"body":"the issue I want to address."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3546.21,"endTime":3549.789,"body":"I'm not going to give away"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3546.21,"endTime":3549.789,"body":"my answer to the question"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3549.789,"endTime":3550.68,"body":"at this point."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3550.68,"endTime":3555.39,"body":"- I've got another one here"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3550.68,"endTime":3555.39,"body":"online about freedom of ideas,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3555.39,"endTime":3559.68,"body":"this is talking about"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3555.39,"endTime":3559.68,"body":"Joel Mokyr's arguments"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3559.68,"endTime":3561.045,"body":"about heterodox ideas,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3561.045,"endTime":3565.747,"body":"could they thrive in the West,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3565.747,"endTime":3570.24,"body":"and is that why?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3570.24,"endTime":3572.283,"body":"- Joel Mokyr has written several books,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3573.69,"endTime":3574.56,"body":"the most famous one of which"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3574.56,"endTime":3576.15,"body":"is called \"The Enlightened Economy,\""},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3576.15,"endTime":3577.86,"body":"and his argument is"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3577.86,"endTime":3582.06,"body":"it's something particular"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3577.86,"endTime":3582.06,"body":"about the Western mindset."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3582.06,"endTime":3582.893,"body":"Of course,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3582.893,"endTime":3584.943,"body":"that can be accused of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3582.893,"endTime":3584.943,"body":"being cultural imperialism."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3586.29,"endTime":3587.7,"body":"Many of the arguments"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3587.7,"endTime":3590.13,"body":"that are being put forward in"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3587.7,"endTime":3590.13,"body":"these books I'm talking about"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3590.13,"endTime":3591.6,"body":"are saying,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3591.6,"endTime":3592.433,"body":"China, of course,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3592.433,"endTime":3596.643,"body":"was incredibly advanced and"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3592.433,"endTime":3596.643,"body":"sophisticated in its technology,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3598.23,"endTime":3600.54,"body":"Joseph Needham's big project at Cambridge"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3600.54,"endTime":3603.69,"body":"on Chinese science,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3603.69,"endTime":3605.973,"body":"India similarly,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3606.93,"endTime":3609.18,"body":"so the argument that would be put forward"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3609.18,"endTime":3612.24,"body":"by Broadberry and others,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3612.24,"endTime":3615.66,"body":"no, it's about the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3612.24,"endTime":3615.66,"body":"market that's pushing it."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3615.66,"endTime":3617.07,"body":"And Robert Allen,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3617.07,"endTime":3619.003,"body":"who is in debate with Mokyr,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3619.003,"endTime":3620.943,"body":"is saying, it's the wages."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3623.4,"endTime":3627.63,"body":"He says that from the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3623.4,"endTime":3627.63,"body":"end of the Black Death,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3627.63,"endTime":3630.09,"body":"wages in England, above all,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3630.09,"endTime":3630.923,"body":"Northwest Europe,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3630.923,"endTime":3632.58,"body":"were higher,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3632.58,"endTime":3636.84,"body":"and that is what really drives innovation,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3636.84,"endTime":3638.01,"body":"and most of the innovation"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3638.01,"endTime":3643.01,"body":"was not caused by smart people"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3638.01,"endTime":3643.01,"body":"in Cambridge, or wherever,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3643.8,"endTime":3645.3,"body":"as if,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3645.3,"endTime":3650.01,"body":"it's working men in"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3645.3,"endTime":3650.01,"body":"the factories adapting."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3650.01,"endTime":3652.68,"body":"So he has an analysis of,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3652.68,"endTime":3654.873,"body":"where did the ideas come from,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3656.37,"endTime":3658.02,"body":"and it's that incentive,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3658.02,"endTime":3660.69,"body":"which would fit in with"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3658.02,"endTime":3660.69,"body":"what I was arguing there"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3660.69,"endTime":3664.56,"body":"about the nature of urbanization,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3664.56,"endTime":3666.93,"body":"and looking at craft networks."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3666.93,"endTime":3669.58,"body":"As I got the bus down here"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3666.93,"endTime":3669.58,"body":"today through Clerkenwell,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3670.89,"endTime":3672.81,"body":"there, you have all the people"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3672.81,"endTime":3675.36,"body":"making the instruments for these ships,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3675.36,"endTime":3677.033,"body":"and what a lot of historians look at"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3677.033,"endTime":3678.72,"body":"are the craft networks"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3678.72,"endTime":3680.79,"body":"where they meet and exchange ideas"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3680.79,"endTime":3684.45,"body":"in pubs, and clubs,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3680.79,"endTime":3684.45,"body":"and literary societies."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3684.45,"endTime":3688.17,"body":"So I'm not, on the whole,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3688.17,"endTime":3691.74,"body":"a big supporter of the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3688.17,"endTime":3691.74,"body":"Joel Mokyr argument."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3691.74,"endTime":3692.76,"body":"- [Questioner] Thank you."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3692.76,"endTime":3696.9,"body":"How is it possible to talk"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3692.76,"endTime":3696.9,"body":"about a great divergence"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3696.9,"endTime":3701.1,"body":"when the health of workers"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3696.9,"endTime":3701.1,"body":"in British industrial cities"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3701.1,"endTime":3703.053,"body":"was so notoriously poor?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3704.22,"endTime":3706.503,"body":"- Well, yes."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3707.52,"endTime":3708.9,"body":"Okay, so we get back then"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3708.9,"endTime":3710.13,"body":"into the whole issue"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3710.13,"endTime":3714.783,"body":"about that graph I was showing us earlier,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3717.03,"endTime":3718.62,"body":"this one,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3718.62,"endTime":3720.87,"body":"and I think I would agree with you,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3720.87,"endTime":3722.853,"body":"it was a damned close-run thing."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3724.98,"endTime":3729.06,"body":"If you look at the data of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3724.98,"endTime":3729.06,"body":"a demographic historian,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3729.06,"endTime":3730.53,"body":"Simon Szreter,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3730.53,"endTime":3734.25,"body":"he would argue that around about here,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3734.25,"endTime":3736.59,"body":"in places like Manchester,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3736.59,"endTime":3739.74,"body":"the mortality rate was equivalent"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3739.74,"endTime":3742.89,"body":"to what it would be in a third world city"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3742.89,"endTime":3745.92,"body":"in the early years of the 20th century."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3745.92,"endTime":3747.741,"body":"So yes, you're right,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3747.741,"endTime":3752.741,"body":"it's a very difficult issue."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3753.78,"endTime":3755.85,"body":"I suppose the question there is,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3755.85,"endTime":3758.013,"body":"whose health is being destroyed?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3759.36,"endTime":3760.71,"body":"And there's a trade-off,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3760.71,"endTime":3762.51,"body":"which is absolutely dreadful,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3762.51,"endTime":3764.043,"body":"it's infant mortality."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3768.03,"endTime":3771.09,"body":"Older people come, they get the high wage,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3771.09,"endTime":3775.68,"body":"but the infant mortality"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3771.09,"endTime":3775.68,"body":"rate is absolutely horrendous"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3775.68,"endTime":3777.75,"body":"at that point,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3777.75,"endTime":3781.59,"body":"so yeah, I think that one"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3777.75,"endTime":3781.59,"body":"would then need to work out,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3781.59,"endTime":3782.88,"body":"this is more fine-grained stuff,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3782.88,"endTime":3784.35,"body":"look at some demographic data"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3784.35,"endTime":3786.72,"body":"to try and see how that compared"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3786.72,"endTime":3791.72,"body":"with Calcutta, or Mumbai, or whatever."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3792.3,"endTime":3796.41,"body":"But I think it would be fair to say"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3796.41,"endTime":3801.41,"body":"that you do not have a"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3796.41,"endTime":3801.41,"body":"famine in the mainland,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3801.72,"endTime":3803.883,"body":"you have it in Ireland,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3804.75,"endTime":3807.87,"body":"and you don't have the"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3804.75,"endTime":3807.87,"body":"demographic downturn"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3807.87,"endTime":3809.79,"body":"that you have here."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3809.79,"endTime":3812.82,"body":"So it's a close-run thing,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3812.82,"endTime":3814.72,"body":"and it's only from about 1840"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3815.64,"endTime":3819.84,"body":"that the standard of living"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3815.64,"endTime":3819.84,"body":"starts to go up a lot more."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3819.84,"endTime":3821.7,"body":"Another point to be made,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3821.7,"endTime":3823.2,"body":"then I'll stop,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3823.2,"endTime":3828.2,"body":"which really supports some"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3823.2,"endTime":3828.2,"body":"of the gloomy view of it,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3829.59,"endTime":3833.46,"body":"is who was working in these factories?"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3833.46,"endTime":3835.54,"body":"One of the innovations"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3836.64,"endTime":3841.64,"body":"is to replace expensive men"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3836.64,"endTime":3841.64,"body":"by cheap women and children."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3844.23,"endTime":3846.51,"body":"Jane Humphries,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3846.51,"endTime":3849.66,"body":"who is another professor of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3846.51,"endTime":3849.66,"body":"economic history at Oxford,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3849.66,"endTime":3851.22,"body":"disagrees with Bob Allen,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3851.22,"endTime":3853.38,"body":"a professor of economic history at Oxford,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3853.38,"endTime":3854.58,"body":"Bob says high wages,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3854.58,"endTime":3855.6,"body":"she says, nonsense,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3855.6,"endTime":3860.6,"body":"cheap women and children being"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3855.6,"endTime":3860.6,"body":"exploited in the factories,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3861.21,"endTime":3866.21,"body":"so it's another very"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3861.21,"endTime":3866.21,"body":"contentious issue there."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3867.66,"endTime":3869.07,"body":"I think my line would be,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3869.07,"endTime":3872.16,"body":"yes, a lot of it was about"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3869.07,"endTime":3872.16,"body":"bringing women and children"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3872.16,"endTime":3873.96,"body":"into factories,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3873.96,"endTime":3876.0,"body":"but I think that, probably,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3876.0,"endTime":3878.4,"body":"despite the horrors that were going on,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3878.4,"endTime":3879.993,"body":"for adult men,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3881.55,"endTime":3883.383,"body":"they were not so badly off,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3884.4,"endTime":3886.443,"body":"and not, demographically, so badly off,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3887.31,"endTime":3889.68,"body":"so it's a distribution issue."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3889.68,"endTime":3891.24,"body":"- Thank you so much, Professor Daunton."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3891.24,"endTime":3892.25,"body":"I'm really sorry,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3892.25,"endTime":3893.88,"body":"we are passed time,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3893.88,"endTime":3896.16,"body":"so I think we're going"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3893.88,"endTime":3896.16,"body":"to have to close there,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3896.16,"endTime":3898.32,"body":"but please do take any questions"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3898.32,"endTime":3900.12,"body":"to Professor Daunton afterwards,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3900.12,"endTime":3900.953,"body":"and in the meantime,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3900.953,"endTime":3903.69,"body":"please come back for \"Slavery"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3900.953,"endTime":3903.69,"body":"and the British Economy\""},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3903.69,"endTime":3906.93,"body":"on Tuesday, the 7th of"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3903.69,"endTime":3906.93,"body":"February, next year,"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3906.93,"endTime":3909.3,"body":"which is the next one in"},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3906.93,"endTime":3909.3,"body":"this three part series."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3909.3,"endTime":3911.522,"body":"Thank you so much."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3909.3,"endTime":3911.522,"body":"- Thank you."},{"speaker":"The main lines of argument are clear","startTime":3911.522,"endTime":3913.185,"body":"(audience applauds)"}]}