{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.15,"endTime":3.18,"body":"- I do face the difficulty"},{"startTime":0.15,"endTime":3.18,"body":"really facing anyone"},{"startTime":3.18,"endTime":5.4,"body":"on this side of the Irish Sea"},{"startTime":5.4,"endTime":7.17,"body":"that Britain has never been comfortable,"},{"startTime":7.17,"endTime":10.38,"body":"I think governing Ireland"},{"startTime":7.17,"endTime":10.38,"body":"or any part of Ireland."},{"startTime":10.38,"endTime":12.9,"body":"And in 1886, Gladstone,"},{"startTime":12.9,"endTime":14.253,"body":"the great liberal Prime Minister said"},{"startTime":14.253,"endTime":17.49,"body":"that the long vexed and troubled relations"},{"startTime":17.49,"endTime":20.637,"body":"between Great Britain and"},{"startTime":17.49,"endTime":20.637,"body":"Ireland exhibit to us the one"},{"startTime":20.637,"endTime":23.34,"body":"and only conspicuous failure"},{"startTime":23.34,"endTime":25.95,"body":"of the political genius of our race"},{"startTime":25.95,"endTime":28.65,"body":"to confront and master difficulty"},{"startTime":28.65,"endTime":32.04,"body":"and obtain in a reasonable"},{"startTime":28.65,"endTime":32.04,"body":"degree the main ends"},{"startTime":32.04,"endTime":33.96,"body":"of civilized life."},{"startTime":33.96,"endTime":35.64,"body":"And secondly, I think there's a feeling"},{"startTime":35.64,"endTime":38.55,"body":"that the British have"},{"startTime":35.64,"endTime":38.55,"body":"never understood Ireland."},{"startTime":38.55,"endTime":42.75,"body":"In 1912, an Irishman wrote"},{"startTime":38.55,"endTime":42.75,"body":"to the \"Manchester Guardian,\""},{"startTime":42.75,"endTime":44.58,"body":"as the \"Guardian\" then was,"},{"startTime":44.58,"endTime":47.13,"body":"claiming that 99"},{"startTime":44.58,"endTime":47.13,"body":"Englishmen out of a hundred"},{"startTime":47.13,"endTime":49.05,"body":"knew nothing about Ireland,"},{"startTime":49.05,"endTime":51.03,"body":"and that to the average Englishman,"},{"startTime":51.03,"endTime":54.9,"body":"Ireland means a troublesome"},{"startTime":51.03,"endTime":54.9,"body":"island somewhere in the Atlantic"},{"startTime":54.9,"endTime":58.35,"body":"where the natives run"},{"startTime":54.9,"endTime":58.35,"body":"half naked over bogs,"},{"startTime":58.35,"endTime":60.42,"body":"flourishing shillelaghs,"},{"startTime":60.42,"endTime":64.44,"body":"whilst behind them all lurks"},{"startTime":60.42,"endTime":64.44,"body":"a mysterious conspirator"},{"startTime":64.44,"endTime":66.45,"body":"known as the priest."},{"startTime":66.45,"endTime":69.603,"body":"I hasten to say this"},{"startTime":66.45,"endTime":69.603,"body":"has never been my view."},{"startTime":70.77,"endTime":71.94,"body":"Now Ireland was joined"},{"startTime":71.94,"endTime":74.55,"body":"to the rest of the United Kingdom in 1801"},{"startTime":74.55,"endTime":76.44,"body":"after Acts of Union passed"},{"startTime":76.44,"endTime":78.84,"body":"by the British and Irish parliament."},{"startTime":78.84,"endTime":82.71,"body":"The Act was carried in the Irish"},{"startTime":78.84,"endTime":82.71,"body":"parliament by corrupt means"},{"startTime":82.71,"endTime":86.22,"body":"and in virtue of a promise"},{"startTime":82.71,"endTime":86.22,"body":"of Catholic emancipation,"},{"startTime":86.22,"endTime":89.25,"body":"a promise not honored till 1829."},{"startTime":89.25,"endTime":93.78,"body":"And the union never achieved"},{"startTime":89.25,"endTime":93.78,"body":"general acceptance in Ireland."},{"startTime":93.78,"endTime":96.69,"body":"The Catholic population"},{"startTime":93.78,"endTime":96.69,"body":"of Ireland regarded itself"},{"startTime":96.69,"endTime":98.13,"body":"as belonging to a concord"},{"startTime":98.13,"endTime":101.64,"body":"and stigmatized people ruled by coercion,"},{"startTime":101.64,"endTime":104.55,"body":"especially after the famine of the 1840s"},{"startTime":104.55,"endTime":108.6,"body":"in which a million died and"},{"startTime":104.55,"endTime":108.6,"body":"another million emigrated."},{"startTime":108.6,"endTime":112.083,"body":"Ireland lost in total around"},{"startTime":108.6,"endTime":112.083,"body":"a quarter of her population."},{"startTime":113.008,"endTime":114.72,"body":"And the arrangements for governing Ireland"},{"startTime":114.72,"endTime":115.59,"body":"were quite different"},{"startTime":115.59,"endTime":118.29,"body":"from those in any other"},{"startTime":115.59,"endTime":118.29,"body":"part of the kingdom."},{"startTime":118.29,"endTime":121.62,"body":"Because although Ireland"},{"startTime":118.29,"endTime":121.62,"body":"sent MPs to Westminster,"},{"startTime":121.62,"endTime":125.07,"body":"her executive and"},{"startTime":121.62,"endTime":125.07,"body":"administration were in Dublin."},{"startTime":125.07,"endTime":126.57,"body":"The head of the executive"},{"startTime":126.57,"endTime":128.52,"body":"was the Chief Secretary for Ireland,"},{"startTime":128.52,"endTime":130.95,"body":"in effect the Secretary"},{"startTime":128.52,"endTime":130.95,"body":"of State for Ireland."},{"startTime":130.95,"endTime":133.92,"body":"And he was usually a member"},{"startTime":130.95,"endTime":133.92,"body":"of the British cabinet."},{"startTime":133.92,"endTime":137.49,"body":"He tended to spend nine months"},{"startTime":133.92,"endTime":137.49,"body":"of every year in London."},{"startTime":137.49,"endTime":142.35,"body":"And after 1871, no Irishman"},{"startTime":137.49,"endTime":142.35,"body":"by birth was appointed"},{"startTime":142.35,"endTime":145.47,"body":"and some were total"},{"startTime":142.35,"endTime":145.47,"body":"strangers to the country."},{"startTime":145.47,"endTime":147.78,"body":"Ireland was administered by boards"},{"startTime":147.78,"endTime":150.63,"body":"with members nominated"},{"startTime":147.78,"endTime":150.63,"body":"by the chief secretary,"},{"startTime":150.63,"endTime":151.89,"body":"almost always belonging"},{"startTime":151.89,"endTime":155.13,"body":"to the Unionist and Protestant ascendancy."},{"startTime":155.13,"endTime":157.35,"body":"Arrangements for preserving law and order"},{"startTime":157.35,"endTime":159.0,"body":"were also quite different"},{"startTime":159.0,"endTime":161.43,"body":"from those in the rest of the country."},{"startTime":161.43,"endTime":163.59,"body":"The Royal Irish Constabulary,"},{"startTime":163.59,"endTime":166.53,"body":"by contrast with police forces elsewhere,"},{"startTime":166.53,"endTime":169.59,"body":"was a national and centralized force used"},{"startTime":169.59,"endTime":173.1,"body":"for internal security and"},{"startTime":169.59,"endTime":173.1,"body":"seen by many Catholics"},{"startTime":173.1,"endTime":175.53,"body":"as in effect an army of occupation"},{"startTime":175.53,"endTime":177.3,"body":"because most of its offices belonged"},{"startTime":177.3,"endTime":179.46,"body":"to the Protestant minority."},{"startTime":179.46,"endTime":181.92,"body":"For almost the whole of the 19th century,"},{"startTime":181.92,"endTime":185.49,"body":"Ireland was governed by"},{"startTime":181.92,"endTime":185.49,"body":"special coercive legislation,"},{"startTime":185.49,"endTime":188.82,"body":"which had no counterpart in"},{"startTime":185.49,"endTime":188.82,"body":"the rest of the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":188.82,"endTime":193.29,"body":"And the Crimes Act of 1887"},{"startTime":188.82,"endTime":193.29,"body":"allowed the lord left tenant"},{"startTime":193.29,"endTime":196.44,"body":"to prohibit organizations"},{"startTime":193.29,"endTime":196.44,"body":"he thought dangerous"},{"startTime":196.44,"endTime":199.35,"body":"and to allow offenses of agrarian violence"},{"startTime":199.35,"endTime":202.32,"body":"to be tried by a"},{"startTime":199.35,"endTime":202.32,"body":"magistrate without a jury."},{"startTime":202.32,"endTime":204.33,"body":"And that act remained on the Statute Book"},{"startTime":204.33,"endTime":207.213,"body":"until Irish independence in 1922."},{"startTime":208.38,"endTime":211.5,"body":"So the government of"},{"startTime":208.38,"endTime":211.5,"body":"Ireland was in form free,"},{"startTime":211.5,"endTime":213.84,"body":"but in reality autocratic."},{"startTime":213.84,"endTime":215.22,"body":"The Catholic majority,"},{"startTime":215.22,"endTime":218.43,"body":"although represented"},{"startTime":215.22,"endTime":218.43,"body":"through MPs in the Commons,"},{"startTime":218.43,"endTime":220.26,"body":"played hardly any role in governing"},{"startTime":220.26,"endTime":222.15,"body":"or administering the country."},{"startTime":222.15,"endTime":224.91,"body":"Ireland, by contrast"},{"startTime":222.15,"endTime":224.91,"body":"with Scotland and Wales,"},{"startTime":224.91,"endTime":227.673,"body":"was not integrated with the"},{"startTime":224.91,"endTime":227.673,"body":"rest of the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":228.78,"endTime":233.34,"body":"Now in 1885, the Third"},{"startTime":228.78,"endTime":233.34,"body":"Reform Act extended the vote"},{"startTime":233.34,"endTime":235.32,"body":"to agricultural workers,"},{"startTime":235.32,"endTime":239.49,"body":"giving Ireland, for the first"},{"startTime":235.32,"endTime":239.49,"body":"time, a popular franchise."},{"startTime":239.49,"endTime":242.25,"body":"And when the legislation"},{"startTime":239.49,"endTime":242.25,"body":"was being prepared,"},{"startTime":242.25,"endTime":244.927,"body":"the home secretary of the"},{"startTime":242.25,"endTime":244.927,"body":"liberal government said,"},{"startTime":244.927,"endTime":247.26,"body":"\"There would be declared"},{"startTime":244.927,"endTime":247.26,"body":"to the rest of the world"},{"startTime":247.26,"endTime":251.16,"body":"in larger print what we"},{"startTime":247.26,"endTime":251.16,"body":"all know to be the case,"},{"startTime":251.16,"endTime":255.0,"body":"that we hold Ireland by"},{"startTime":251.16,"endTime":255.0,"body":"force and by force alone,"},{"startTime":255.0,"endTime":257.04,"body":"as in the days of Cromwell."},{"startTime":257.04,"endTime":260.64,"body":"Only, we are obliged to hold"},{"startTime":257.04,"endTime":260.64,"body":"it by a force 10 times larger"},{"startTime":260.64,"endTime":262.56,"body":"than he found necessary."},{"startTime":262.56,"endTime":265.95,"body":"We have never governed and"},{"startTime":262.56,"endTime":265.95,"body":"we never shall govern Ireland"},{"startTime":265.95,"endTime":268.17,"body":"by the good of its people.\""},{"startTime":268.17,"endTime":269.91,"body":"And after 1885,"},{"startTime":269.91,"endTime":273.84,"body":"nearly every Irish constituency"},{"startTime":269.91,"endTime":273.84,"body":"outside Ulster returned"},{"startTime":273.84,"endTime":277.53,"body":"to the Commons a member of"},{"startTime":273.84,"endTime":277.53,"body":"the Irish Parliamentary Party,"},{"startTime":277.53,"endTime":280.56,"body":"a party whose main policy was home rule,"},{"startTime":280.56,"endTime":283.2,"body":"what would now be called devolution,"},{"startTime":283.2,"endTime":286.59,"body":"giving Ireland responsibility"},{"startTime":283.2,"endTime":286.59,"body":"for her domestic affairs,"},{"startTime":286.59,"endTime":289.02,"body":"while leaving foreign policy defense,"},{"startTime":289.02,"endTime":292.74,"body":"economic policy and social"},{"startTime":289.02,"endTime":292.74,"body":"security with Westminster."},{"startTime":292.74,"endTime":296.52,"body":"Now until 1914, the Irish Party always won"},{"startTime":296.52,"endTime":300.93,"body":"at least 81 of the 103"},{"startTime":296.52,"endTime":300.93,"body":"Irish constituencies"},{"startTime":300.93,"endTime":302.67,"body":"and won almost every constituency"},{"startTime":302.67,"endTime":304.473,"body":"outside the province of Ulster."},{"startTime":305.7,"endTime":308.4,"body":"So what was the Irish question?"},{"startTime":308.4,"endTime":311.19,"body":"It's become a rather tired joke."},{"startTime":311.19,"endTime":312.42,"body":"As soon as the English thought"},{"startTime":312.42,"endTime":313.65,"body":"they had answered the question,"},{"startTime":313.65,"endTime":315.573,"body":"the Irish changed the question."},{"startTime":316.44,"endTime":319.47,"body":"But in reality the question"},{"startTime":316.44,"endTime":319.47,"body":"hardly changed at all,"},{"startTime":319.47,"endTime":321.96,"body":"though it had two parts to it."},{"startTime":321.96,"endTime":324.42,"body":"The first part of the question asked"},{"startTime":324.42,"endTime":326.67,"body":"whether a liberal society had the right"},{"startTime":326.67,"endTime":331.05,"body":"to rule an unwilling geographically"},{"startTime":326.67,"endTime":331.05,"body":"concentrated minority"},{"startTime":331.05,"endTime":333.84,"body":"through a form of"},{"startTime":331.05,"endTime":333.84,"body":"government that it rejected."},{"startTime":333.84,"endTime":336.9,"body":"Ireland was, as we've seen,"},{"startTime":333.84,"endTime":336.9,"body":"governed by those opposed"},{"startTime":336.9,"endTime":339.27,"body":"by the majority of her representatives."},{"startTime":339.27,"endTime":340.26,"body":"And whether liberals"},{"startTime":340.26,"endTime":342.9,"body":"or conservatives were in power in London,"},{"startTime":342.9,"endTime":345.87,"body":"the chief secretary and"},{"startTime":342.9,"endTime":345.87,"body":"the Irish administration"},{"startTime":345.87,"endTime":347.19,"body":"were in the hands of a party"},{"startTime":347.19,"endTime":350.34,"body":"which had only minority"},{"startTime":347.19,"endTime":350.34,"body":"support in Ireland."},{"startTime":350.34,"endTime":351.99,"body":"Irish representatives,"},{"startTime":351.99,"endTime":355.38,"body":"unless they belonged to the"},{"startTime":351.99,"endTime":355.38,"body":"minority Unionist community,"},{"startTime":355.38,"endTime":358.23,"body":"played no part in the"},{"startTime":355.38,"endTime":358.23,"body":"government of their country."},{"startTime":358.23,"endTime":359.97,"body":"The constitutional implication"},{"startTime":359.97,"endTime":362.46,"body":"of the Anglo Irish Union of 1800"},{"startTime":362.46,"endTime":364.41,"body":"had been the legal equality of Ireland"},{"startTime":364.41,"endTime":366.0,"body":"with the rest of the kingdom."},{"startTime":366.0,"endTime":367.35,"body":"But to most in Ireland,"},{"startTime":367.35,"endTime":370.35,"body":"the relationship seemed"},{"startTime":367.35,"endTime":370.35,"body":"one of subordination."},{"startTime":370.35,"endTime":373.65,"body":"Ireland seemed a"},{"startTime":370.35,"endTime":373.65,"body":"dependency, not a partner."},{"startTime":373.65,"endTime":375.99,"body":"John Morley, a leading liberal"},{"startTime":375.99,"endTime":380.31,"body":"and a former chief Secretary"},{"startTime":375.99,"endTime":380.31,"body":"of Ireland said in 1902"},{"startTime":380.31,"endTime":382.837,"body":"that the government of"},{"startTime":380.31,"endTime":382.837,"body":"Ireland was, and I quote,"},{"startTime":382.837,"endTime":385.89,"body":"\"A very good machine"},{"startTime":382.837,"endTime":385.89,"body":"for governing a country"},{"startTime":385.89,"endTime":388.38,"body":"against its own consent.\""},{"startTime":388.38,"endTime":390.42,"body":"And Ireland was ruled not by consent,"},{"startTime":390.42,"endTime":393.153,"body":"but by a mixture of"},{"startTime":390.42,"endTime":393.153,"body":"paternalism and coercion."},{"startTime":393.99,"endTime":395.97,"body":"Now from 1886, the liberal answer"},{"startTime":395.97,"endTime":399.21,"body":"to the Irish question was"},{"startTime":395.97,"endTime":399.21,"body":"home rule or devolution."},{"startTime":399.21,"endTime":402.96,"body":"But a bill of 1886 was defeated"},{"startTime":399.21,"endTime":402.96,"body":"in the House of Commons,"},{"startTime":402.96,"endTime":406.29,"body":"93 liberals refusing to support it."},{"startTime":406.29,"endTime":409.23,"body":"A second bill in 1893 passed the Commons,"},{"startTime":409.23,"endTime":411.6,"body":"but was defeated in the Lords."},{"startTime":411.6,"endTime":414.75,"body":"In 1912, the Asquith liberal government"},{"startTime":414.75,"endTime":416.397,"body":"introduced a third bill,"},{"startTime":416.397,"endTime":418.65,"body":"and by then the absolute veto"},{"startTime":418.65,"endTime":421.05,"body":"of the House of Lords had been removed."},{"startTime":421.05,"endTime":424.59,"body":"The Lords could do no more"},{"startTime":421.05,"endTime":424.59,"body":"than delay legislation"},{"startTime":424.59,"endTime":427.23,"body":"for two parliamentary sessions."},{"startTime":427.23,"endTime":430.533,"body":"So home rule would become law in 1914."},{"startTime":431.46,"endTime":433.41,"body":"Now, home rule, the liberals hoped,"},{"startTime":433.41,"endTime":436.95,"body":"would transform Irish"},{"startTime":433.41,"endTime":436.95,"body":"attitudes towards the union,"},{"startTime":436.95,"endTime":439.117,"body":"which would then become,"},{"startTime":436.95,"endTime":439.117,"body":"in Gladstone's words,"},{"startTime":439.117,"endTime":441.087,"body":"\"A union of hearts.\""},{"startTime":442.08,"endTime":444.51,"body":"But many otherwise liberal people,"},{"startTime":444.51,"endTime":447.42,"body":"liberally minded people"},{"startTime":444.51,"endTime":447.42,"body":"were opposed to home rule"},{"startTime":447.42,"endTime":450.99,"body":"since they believed that even"},{"startTime":447.42,"endTime":450.99,"body":"though tainted by corruption,"},{"startTime":450.99,"endTime":453.36,"body":"the union with Ireland"},{"startTime":450.99,"endTime":453.36,"body":"was the consummation"},{"startTime":453.36,"endTime":455.64,"body":"of a long historical process"},{"startTime":455.64,"endTime":459.03,"body":"uniting the British Isles"},{"startTime":455.64,"endTime":459.03,"body":"under one parliament."},{"startTime":459.03,"endTime":462.99,"body":"Many remembered the American"},{"startTime":459.03,"endTime":462.99,"body":"Civil War from the 1860s"},{"startTime":462.99,"endTime":465.21,"body":"in which the South had seceded,"},{"startTime":465.21,"endTime":467.19,"body":"but had been forcibly reunited"},{"startTime":467.19,"endTime":469.53,"body":"with the rest of the United States."},{"startTime":469.53,"endTime":471.87,"body":"Gladstone, the liberal prime minister"},{"startTime":471.87,"endTime":474.51,"body":"who first formulated home rule proposals,"},{"startTime":474.51,"endTime":478.68,"body":"had actually supported the"},{"startTime":474.51,"endTime":478.68,"body":"right of the South to secede."},{"startTime":478.68,"endTime":479.97,"body":"But Joseph Chamberlain,"},{"startTime":479.97,"endTime":482.79,"body":"a liberal Unionist who opposed home rule,"},{"startTime":482.79,"endTime":484.56,"body":"was on the side of the North,"},{"startTime":484.56,"endTime":487.32,"body":"and many liberal minded"},{"startTime":484.56,"endTime":487.32,"body":"people agreed with him."},{"startTime":487.32,"endTime":491.16,"body":"Germany and Italy had also"},{"startTime":487.32,"endTime":491.16,"body":"been reunited by force,"},{"startTime":491.16,"endTime":494.25,"body":"and many liberal minded"},{"startTime":491.16,"endTime":494.25,"body":"people had little sympathy"},{"startTime":494.25,"endTime":497.7,"body":"with those who might want"},{"startTime":494.25,"endTime":497.7,"body":"to break up those countries."},{"startTime":497.7,"endTime":500.1,"body":"Now, opponents of home"},{"startTime":497.7,"endTime":500.1,"body":"rule believed it was"},{"startTime":500.1,"endTime":502.65,"body":"but an unstable halfway house,"},{"startTime":502.65,"endTime":505.17,"body":"a slippery slope to independence,"},{"startTime":505.17,"endTime":506.67,"body":"which in the 19th century,"},{"startTime":506.67,"endTime":509.37,"body":"both liberals and conservatives opposed."},{"startTime":509.37,"endTime":512.31,"body":"Liberals saw home rule as"},{"startTime":509.37,"endTime":512.31,"body":"preventing independence,"},{"startTime":512.31,"endTime":514.44,"body":"not as a means towards it."},{"startTime":514.44,"endTime":517.41,"body":"But a Dublin parliament Unionist argued,"},{"startTime":517.41,"endTime":520.92,"body":"would provide an additional"},{"startTime":517.41,"endTime":520.92,"body":"forum for Irish nationalists."},{"startTime":520.92,"endTime":522.51,"body":"Inadequacies in the government"},{"startTime":522.51,"endTime":525.96,"body":"or administration of Ireland"},{"startTime":522.51,"endTime":525.96,"body":"would always be attributed"},{"startTime":525.96,"endTime":527.67,"body":"to the British government's failure"},{"startTime":527.67,"endTime":529.71,"body":"to provide sufficient funds"},{"startTime":529.71,"endTime":532.89,"body":"or concede sufficient powers"},{"startTime":529.71,"endTime":532.89,"body":"to the Irish parliament,"},{"startTime":532.89,"endTime":535.17,"body":"and the Dublin parliament"},{"startTime":532.89,"endTime":535.17,"body":"would give nationalists"},{"startTime":535.17,"endTime":538.53,"body":"greater leverage to propose and agitate."},{"startTime":538.53,"endTime":540.69,"body":"Moreover, home rule would not be accepted"},{"startTime":540.69,"endTime":543.66,"body":"by Irish nationalists"},{"startTime":540.69,"endTime":543.66,"body":"as a final settlement,"},{"startTime":543.66,"endTime":545.73,"body":"despite what they said."},{"startTime":545.73,"endTime":548.55,"body":"Their ultimate, albeit unspoken objective,"},{"startTime":548.55,"endTime":549.99,"body":"critics suggested,"},{"startTime":549.99,"endTime":552.99,"body":"was not a mere revision of"},{"startTime":549.99,"endTime":552.99,"body":"the legislative relationship,"},{"startTime":552.99,"endTime":554.91,"body":"but independence."},{"startTime":554.91,"endTime":557.383,"body":"And speaking at Cork in 1885,"},{"startTime":557.383,"endTime":560.827,"body":"a nationalist leader Charles"},{"startTime":557.383,"endTime":560.827,"body":"Stewart Parnell said,"},{"startTime":560.827,"endTime":563.76,"body":"\"No man has the right to fix the boundary"},{"startTime":563.76,"endTime":565.83,"body":"to the march of a notion."},{"startTime":565.83,"endTime":568.89,"body":"No man has the right to say to his country"},{"startTime":568.89,"endTime":572.94,"body":"thus far shalt thou go and no further.\""},{"startTime":572.94,"endTime":576.18,"body":"An independent Ireland"},{"startTime":572.94,"endTime":576.18,"body":"would, so many believed,"},{"startTime":576.18,"endTime":578.01,"body":"constitute danger to Britain"},{"startTime":578.01,"endTime":580.53,"body":"as a hostile base for enemy troops,"},{"startTime":580.53,"endTime":583.89,"body":"as it had been during"},{"startTime":580.53,"endTime":583.89,"body":"the Rebellion of 1798"},{"startTime":583.89,"endTime":586.983,"body":"when part of the country had"},{"startTime":583.89,"endTime":586.983,"body":"been occupied by French troops."},{"startTime":588.06,"endTime":590.55,"body":"Whether opponents of home rule were right"},{"startTime":590.55,"endTime":592.98,"body":"that it would've led to"},{"startTime":590.55,"endTime":592.98,"body":"Irish independence can"},{"startTime":592.98,"endTime":595.11,"body":"of course never been known."},{"startTime":595.11,"endTime":598.8,"body":"The same argument that devolution"},{"startTime":595.11,"endTime":598.8,"body":"is a mere halfway house"},{"startTime":598.8,"endTime":603.48,"body":"towards independence is currently"},{"startTime":598.8,"endTime":603.48,"body":"being tested in Scotland."},{"startTime":603.48,"endTime":605.73,"body":"But in Scotland the jury is still out."},{"startTime":605.73,"endTime":607.65,"body":"We don't yet know."},{"startTime":607.65,"endTime":609.93,"body":"Opponents of home rule"},{"startTime":607.65,"endTime":609.93,"body":"believed it would lead,"},{"startTime":609.93,"endTime":613.47,"body":"not only to the disintegration"},{"startTime":609.93,"endTime":613.47,"body":"of the United Kingdom,"},{"startTime":613.47,"endTime":616.987,"body":"but also the disintegration of the empire."},{"startTime":616.987,"endTime":619.56,"body":"\"If Ireland goes,\" Lord Salisbury,"},{"startTime":619.56,"endTime":623.347,"body":"the late 19th century"},{"startTime":619.56,"endTime":623.347,"body":"conservative prime minister said,"},{"startTime":623.347,"endTime":626.85,"body":"\"India will go 50 years later.\""},{"startTime":626.85,"endTime":630.57,"body":"Now in fact, India became"},{"startTime":626.85,"endTime":630.57,"body":"independent in 1947,"},{"startTime":630.57,"endTime":635.57,"body":"just 25 years after Ireland"},{"startTime":630.57,"endTime":635.57,"body":"became independent in 1922."},{"startTime":635.7,"endTime":638.04,"body":"Both were to be partitioned"},{"startTime":638.04,"endTime":642.48,"body":"and arguably had been held"},{"startTime":638.04,"endTime":642.48,"body":"together only by British rule."},{"startTime":642.48,"endTime":644.97,"body":"So the first part of"},{"startTime":642.48,"endTime":644.97,"body":"the Irish question asks,"},{"startTime":644.97,"endTime":649.14,"body":"how is Ireland to be"},{"startTime":644.97,"endTime":649.14,"body":"governed in a liberal polity?"},{"startTime":649.14,"endTime":651.48,"body":"But there's a second part of the question,"},{"startTime":651.48,"endTime":655.02,"body":"occasioned by the presence of"},{"startTime":651.48,"endTime":655.02,"body":"a large Protestant minority"},{"startTime":655.02,"endTime":658.47,"body":"amounting to just over a"},{"startTime":655.02,"endTime":658.47,"body":"quarter of the population."},{"startTime":658.47,"endTime":659.61,"body":"Now in most of Ireland,"},{"startTime":659.61,"endTime":662.91,"body":"the Protestants were a scattered minority."},{"startTime":662.91,"endTime":664.77,"body":"But in the province of Ulster,"},{"startTime":664.77,"endTime":666.8,"body":"which constituted nine counties,"},{"startTime":666.8,"endTime":668.97,"body":"as you can see on the map,"},{"startTime":668.97,"endTime":673.403,"body":"they were a majority of around 56%."},{"startTime":675.06,"endTime":677.55,"body":"In three of the counties of Ulster,"},{"startTime":677.55,"endTime":680.34,"body":"Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan,"},{"startTime":680.34,"endTime":682.77,"body":"which are now part of independent Ireland,"},{"startTime":682.77,"endTime":685.35,"body":"they were a distinct minority"},{"startTime":685.35,"endTime":689.4,"body":"comprising between a fifth and"},{"startTime":685.35,"endTime":689.4,"body":"a quarter of the population."},{"startTime":689.4,"endTime":691.38,"body":"In Fermanagh and Tyrone,"},{"startTime":691.38,"endTime":694.65,"body":"the Protestants were a"},{"startTime":691.38,"endTime":694.65,"body":"more substantial minority,"},{"startTime":694.65,"endTime":698.58,"body":"comprising around 45% of the population."},{"startTime":698.58,"endTime":700.59,"body":"But in the remaining four counties,"},{"startTime":700.59,"endTime":703.92,"body":"Antrim, Armagh, Down and Londonderry,"},{"startTime":703.92,"endTime":705.66,"body":"they were in the majority."},{"startTime":705.66,"endTime":708.933,"body":"And in Antrim and Down,"},{"startTime":705.66,"endTime":708.933,"body":"and overwhelming majority."},{"startTime":710.34,"endTime":712.53,"body":"Now, nationalists tended to believe"},{"startTime":712.53,"endTime":715.17,"body":"that the Protestant minority"},{"startTime":712.53,"endTime":715.17,"body":"had been planted there"},{"startTime":715.17,"endTime":719.07,"body":"by James I in the early 17th century"},{"startTime":719.07,"endTime":720.96,"body":"to subjugate the Catholics"},{"startTime":720.96,"endTime":724.56,"body":"and were therefore an"},{"startTime":720.96,"endTime":724.56,"body":"alien element in Ireland."},{"startTime":724.56,"endTime":727.11,"body":"But Unionists argued"},{"startTime":724.56,"endTime":727.11,"body":"there had been an English"},{"startTime":727.11,"endTime":731.31,"body":"and Scottish presence in Ulster"},{"startTime":727.11,"endTime":731.31,"body":"well before the 17th century"},{"startTime":731.31,"endTime":733.35,"body":"and before the Reformation."},{"startTime":733.35,"endTime":735.0,"body":"Indeed there had, they insisted,"},{"startTime":735.0,"endTime":738.27,"body":"been a Scottish presence in"},{"startTime":735.0,"endTime":738.27,"body":"Ulster from earliest times,"},{"startTime":738.27,"endTime":741.75,"body":"and immigration from Scotland"},{"startTime":738.27,"endTime":741.75,"body":"had been fairly continuous"},{"startTime":741.75,"endTime":744.99,"body":"as centuries before 1609."},{"startTime":744.99,"endTime":746.31,"body":"Nor had the plantation"},{"startTime":746.31,"endTime":749.46,"body":"in the 17th century covered"},{"startTime":746.31,"endTime":749.46,"body":"the whole of Ulster,"},{"startTime":749.46,"endTime":753.54,"body":"since three of its counties,"},{"startTime":749.46,"endTime":753.54,"body":"Antrim, Down and Monaghan,"},{"startTime":753.54,"endTime":756.54,"body":"which is now in Ireland,"},{"startTime":756.54,"endTime":759.393,"body":"had not been plantation counties at all."},{"startTime":760.26,"endTime":762.81,"body":"But the Protestant population had come"},{"startTime":762.81,"endTime":765.33,"body":"to occupy the more fertile areas,"},{"startTime":765.33,"endTime":767.94,"body":"and the Catholics, the less fertile areas."},{"startTime":767.94,"endTime":771.39,"body":"And the Protestants had"},{"startTime":767.94,"endTime":771.39,"body":"come to assume the character"},{"startTime":771.39,"endTime":775.92,"body":"of a dominant minority"},{"startTime":771.39,"endTime":775.92,"body":"enjoying monopoly of power."},{"startTime":775.92,"endTime":778.38,"body":"The Ulster Protestants"},{"startTime":775.92,"endTime":778.38,"body":"felt their main links"},{"startTime":778.38,"endTime":781.59,"body":"to be with Scotland and the"},{"startTime":778.38,"endTime":781.59,"body":"rest of the United Kingdom,"},{"startTime":781.59,"endTime":784.62,"body":"rather than with the Catholic"},{"startTime":781.59,"endTime":784.62,"body":"population of Ireland,"},{"startTime":784.62,"endTime":788.16,"body":"from whom they felt separate,"},{"startTime":784.62,"endTime":788.16,"body":"not only in religion,"},{"startTime":788.16,"endTime":791.22,"body":"but also in nationality and ethnicity."},{"startTime":791.22,"endTime":793.56,"body":"And unlike the majority in Ireland,"},{"startTime":793.56,"endTime":795.21,"body":"they accepted the premise"},{"startTime":795.21,"endTime":797.73,"body":"on which the act of union had been based,"},{"startTime":797.73,"endTime":800.643,"body":"as an expression of a"},{"startTime":797.73,"endTime":800.643,"body":"single British nationhood."},{"startTime":801.75,"endTime":803.64,"body":"Now, while in the rest of Ireland,"},{"startTime":803.64,"endTime":806.64,"body":"the Protestant population"},{"startTime":803.64,"endTime":806.64,"body":"was largely concentrated"},{"startTime":806.64,"endTime":808.23,"body":"amongst the better off,"},{"startTime":808.23,"endTime":811.77,"body":"in Ulster it embraced every social class."},{"startTime":811.77,"endTime":813.21,"body":"Now in the 19th century,"},{"startTime":813.21,"endTime":814.377,"body":"differences between Ulster"},{"startTime":814.377,"endTime":817.23,"body":"and the rest of Ireland were accentuated"},{"startTime":817.23,"endTime":820.23,"body":"as Belfast became an industrial city."},{"startTime":820.23,"endTime":821.61,"body":"While in agriculture,"},{"startTime":821.61,"endTime":824.79,"body":"there was a different system"},{"startTime":821.61,"endTime":824.79,"body":"of land tenure in Ulster"},{"startTime":824.79,"endTime":826.773,"body":"from that pervading in other provinces."},{"startTime":827.67,"endTime":829.89,"body":"Now, from the end of the 18th century,"},{"startTime":829.89,"endTime":831.99,"body":"the rise of Irish nationalism"},{"startTime":831.99,"endTime":833.64,"body":"and the growth of a modern sense"},{"startTime":833.64,"endTime":837.12,"body":"of Irish identity"},{"startTime":833.64,"endTime":837.12,"body":"exacerbated the conflict."},{"startTime":837.12,"endTime":840.21,"body":"And although some Irish"},{"startTime":837.12,"endTime":840.21,"body":"nationalist leaders, for example,"},{"startTime":840.21,"endTime":843.12,"body":"Parnell himself, were Protestants,"},{"startTime":843.12,"endTime":845.64,"body":"Irish nationalism came to be identified"},{"startTime":845.64,"endTime":847.56,"body":"with the Catholic majority."},{"startTime":847.56,"endTime":851.64,"body":"And by 1886, the terms"},{"startTime":847.56,"endTime":851.64,"body":"Catholic and Nationalist"},{"startTime":851.64,"endTime":853.59,"body":"and Protestant and Unionist"},{"startTime":853.59,"endTime":855.78,"body":"had become largely interchangeable."},{"startTime":855.78,"endTime":858.6,"body":"And it's this super imposition"},{"startTime":858.6,"endTime":862.32,"body":"of a nationalist conflict"},{"startTime":858.6,"endTime":862.32,"body":"upon a religious one"},{"startTime":862.32,"endTime":864.24,"body":"which explains the persistence"},{"startTime":864.24,"endTime":866.673,"body":"and depth of the Irish problem."},{"startTime":868.02,"endTime":870.12,"body":"So the conflict between"},{"startTime":868.02,"endTime":870.12,"body":"the two communities"},{"startTime":870.12,"endTime":873.09,"body":"in Ireland had deep historical roots."},{"startTime":873.09,"endTime":876.63,"body":"In 1918, Lloyd George was to declare"},{"startTime":876.63,"endTime":879.21,"body":"that what had begun as a family quarrel"},{"startTime":879.21,"endTime":882.54,"body":"had degenerated into a blood feud."},{"startTime":882.54,"endTime":884.1,"body":"The Protestants were determined"},{"startTime":884.1,"endTime":886.86,"body":"to resist submission"},{"startTime":884.1,"endTime":886.86,"body":"to a Dublin parliament,"},{"startTime":886.86,"endTime":890.85,"body":"which entailed rule by men"},{"startTime":886.86,"endTime":890.85,"body":"they regarded as disloyal,"},{"startTime":890.85,"endTime":892.44,"body":"a view intensified"},{"startTime":892.44,"endTime":895.26,"body":"when nationalist MPs"},{"startTime":892.44,"endTime":895.26,"body":"cheered enemy victories"},{"startTime":895.26,"endTime":896.583,"body":"in the Borough War."},{"startTime":897.57,"endTime":899.01,"body":"Protestants also believe"},{"startTime":899.01,"endTime":901.14,"body":"that a nationalist"},{"startTime":899.01,"endTime":901.14,"body":"government would be corrupt"},{"startTime":901.14,"endTime":902.257,"body":"and priest ridden."},{"startTime":902.257,"endTime":905.82,"body":"\"Home rule,\" they said,"},{"startTime":902.257,"endTime":905.82,"body":"\"would mean Rome rule.\""},{"startTime":905.82,"endTime":908.52,"body":"And Ulster Unionists regarded home rule"},{"startTime":908.52,"endTime":912.6,"body":"as being tantamount to"},{"startTime":908.52,"endTime":912.6,"body":"expulsion from United Kingdom."},{"startTime":912.6,"endTime":913.98,"body":"They were not mollified"},{"startTime":913.98,"endTime":917.79,"body":"by being told that home rule"},{"startTime":913.98,"endTime":917.79,"body":"was not the same as separation."},{"startTime":917.79,"endTime":921.72,"body":"And 21st century experience"},{"startTime":917.79,"endTime":921.72,"body":"with Scotland may show"},{"startTime":921.72,"endTime":922.74,"body":"that they were right."},{"startTime":922.74,"endTime":924.303,"body":"It is too early to tell."},{"startTime":925.65,"endTime":929.52,"body":"Now the scattered Protestant"},{"startTime":925.65,"endTime":929.52,"body":"minority outside Ulster"},{"startTime":929.52,"endTime":932.52,"body":"comprising largely the"},{"startTime":929.52,"endTime":932.52,"body":"middle and upper classes"},{"startTime":932.52,"endTime":935.31,"body":"would find it difficult"},{"startTime":932.52,"endTime":935.31,"body":"to resist home rule."},{"startTime":935.31,"endTime":938.34,"body":"But in Ulster where"},{"startTime":935.31,"endTime":938.34,"body":"opposition to home rule came"},{"startTime":938.34,"endTime":940.56,"body":"from every section of society,"},{"startTime":940.56,"endTime":943.563,"body":"Unionists could certainly resist by force."},{"startTime":944.957,"endTime":949.89,"body":"But the basic aim of Unionists"},{"startTime":944.957,"endTime":949.89,"body":"was not to secure partition,"},{"startTime":949.89,"endTime":952.413,"body":"but to defeat home rule."},{"startTime":953.61,"endTime":956.22,"body":"If Ulster succeeds the Unionist leaders"},{"startTime":956.22,"endTime":958.827,"body":"that Edward Carson declared in 1911,"},{"startTime":958.827,"endTime":960.78,"body":"the home rule is dead."},{"startTime":960.78,"endTime":961.86,"body":"And it's rather ironic"},{"startTime":961.86,"endTime":964.86,"body":"that his statue is outside the"},{"startTime":961.86,"endTime":964.86,"body":"Northern Ireland parliament"},{"startTime":964.86,"endTime":968.67,"body":"at Stormont because he was"},{"startTime":964.86,"endTime":968.67,"body":"strongly against partition."},{"startTime":968.67,"endTime":971.43,"body":"He was an Irish Unionist who believed"},{"startTime":971.43,"endTime":975.18,"body":"that religious antagonisms"},{"startTime":971.43,"endTime":975.18,"body":"would be less strong"},{"startTime":975.18,"endTime":977.04,"body":"in a United Kingdom."},{"startTime":977.04,"endTime":978.99,"body":"Whereas for example,"},{"startTime":978.99,"endTime":982.92,"body":"Catholics and Protestants"},{"startTime":978.99,"endTime":982.92,"body":"disagreed with each other strongly"},{"startTime":982.92,"endTime":986.16,"body":"in Glasgow or in Liverpool,"},{"startTime":986.16,"endTime":989.1,"body":"the disagreements wouldn't"},{"startTime":986.16,"endTime":989.1,"body":"be as fierce as they would be"},{"startTime":989.1,"endTime":992.013,"body":"in an independent Ireland."},{"startTime":993.75,"endTime":995.7,"body":"Now, Unionists believed"},{"startTime":995.7,"endTime":999.63,"body":"that without industrial"},{"startTime":995.7,"endTime":999.63,"body":"Ireland centered on Belfast,"},{"startTime":999.63,"endTime":1002.18,"body":"an Irish parliament would not be viable,"},{"startTime":1002.18,"endTime":1004.163,"body":"and so home rule would not be viable."},{"startTime":1005.15,"endTime":1007.07,"body":"But once it became clear"},{"startTime":1007.07,"endTime":1010.55,"body":"that the southern Unionists"},{"startTime":1007.07,"endTime":1010.55,"body":"could not prevent home rule,"},{"startTime":1010.55,"endTime":1014.51,"body":"Unionists were determined to"},{"startTime":1010.55,"endTime":1014.51,"body":"save Ulster from the wreckage."},{"startTime":1014.51,"endTime":1018.95,"body":"And partition, which began as"},{"startTime":1014.51,"endTime":1018.95,"body":"a tactic to defeat home rule,"},{"startTime":1018.95,"endTime":1022.52,"body":"was to become for Unionists"},{"startTime":1018.95,"endTime":1022.52,"body":"a compromised solution."},{"startTime":1022.52,"endTime":1023.72,"body":"Very much a second best."},{"startTime":1023.72,"endTime":1025.43,"body":"The first best was keeping Ireland"},{"startTime":1025.43,"endTime":1026.753,"body":"within the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":1028.1,"endTime":1030.29,"body":"Now to many on this side of the Irish Sea,"},{"startTime":1030.29,"endTime":1033.38,"body":"Ulster seemed to have right on her side."},{"startTime":1033.38,"endTime":1035.21,"body":"The case for home rule, after all,"},{"startTime":1035.21,"endTime":1038.0,"body":"was based upon self-determination."},{"startTime":1038.0,"endTime":1041.93,"body":"But did not Ulster also have"},{"startTime":1038.0,"endTime":1041.93,"body":"a right to self-determination?"},{"startTime":1041.93,"endTime":1042.92,"body":"Ireland, after all,"},{"startTime":1042.92,"endTime":1046.01,"body":"contained one 15th of"},{"startTime":1042.92,"endTime":1046.01,"body":"the British population,"},{"startTime":1046.01,"endTime":1049.4,"body":"Ulster one quarter of"},{"startTime":1046.01,"endTime":1049.4,"body":"the Irish population."},{"startTime":1049.4,"endTime":1051.44,"body":"The Irish nationalist"},{"startTime":1049.4,"endTime":1051.44,"body":"said they did not want"},{"startTime":1051.44,"endTime":1053.57,"body":"to be ruled by Westminster."},{"startTime":1053.57,"endTime":1056.66,"body":"The Ulster Protestants"},{"startTime":1053.57,"endTime":1056.66,"body":"said they did not wish"},{"startTime":1056.66,"endTime":1058.853,"body":"to be ruled by Dublin."},{"startTime":1061.88,"endTime":1063.62,"body":"Now the appeal of Irish,"},{"startTime":1063.62,"endTime":1066.86,"body":"of Ulster Unionists"},{"startTime":1063.62,"endTime":1066.86,"body":"was a very powerful one"},{"startTime":1066.86,"endTime":1069.29,"body":"at a time when British identity was still"},{"startTime":1069.29,"endTime":1072.47,"body":"to a large extent defined by religion"},{"startTime":1072.47,"endTime":1077.47,"body":"because Britain before 1914"},{"startTime":1072.47,"endTime":1077.47,"body":"was a Protestant country,"},{"startTime":1077.51,"endTime":1080.51,"body":"while Catholics still"},{"startTime":1077.51,"endTime":1080.51,"body":"faced a considerable degree"},{"startTime":1080.51,"endTime":1082.04,"body":"of social discrimination."},{"startTime":1082.04,"endTime":1084.41,"body":"Religion then was much more important"},{"startTime":1084.41,"endTime":1087.323,"body":"in defining British"},{"startTime":1084.41,"endTime":1087.323,"body":"identity than it is now."},{"startTime":1088.67,"endTime":1090.29,"body":"Now the Irish nationalist said"},{"startTime":1090.29,"endTime":1093.59,"body":"they did not regard themselves"},{"startTime":1090.29,"endTime":1093.59,"body":"as British, but as Irish,"},{"startTime":1093.59,"endTime":1095.96,"body":"and their Irish identity"},{"startTime":1093.59,"endTime":1095.96,"body":"was, they believed,"},{"startTime":1095.96,"endTime":1098.333,"body":"incompatible withdrawal from Westminster."},{"startTime":1099.47,"endTime":1103.01,"body":"The Ulster Protestants"},{"startTime":1099.47,"endTime":1103.01,"body":"replied they were British."},{"startTime":1103.01,"endTime":1104.36,"body":"The nationalist insisted"},{"startTime":1104.36,"endTime":1107.78,"body":"that Ireland was a unity"},{"startTime":1104.36,"endTime":1107.78,"body":"comprising a single nation."},{"startTime":1107.78,"endTime":1110.72,"body":"Ireland being an island must, they argued,"},{"startTime":1110.72,"endTime":1113.33,"body":"remain under a single unit of government."},{"startTime":1113.33,"endTime":1115.28,"body":"But that view, Unionists argued,"},{"startTime":1115.28,"endTime":1117.38,"body":"ignored the realities of ethnicity,"},{"startTime":1117.38,"endTime":1119.78,"body":"religion and nationality."},{"startTime":1119.78,"endTime":1121.19,"body":"Now for one point of view,"},{"startTime":1121.19,"endTime":1123.26,"body":"the Ulster argument was stronger"},{"startTime":1123.26,"endTime":1125.75,"body":"than that of the"},{"startTime":1123.26,"endTime":1125.75,"body":"nationalists because Ulster,"},{"startTime":1125.75,"endTime":1126.98,"body":"unlike the nationalists,"},{"startTime":1126.98,"endTime":1129.41,"body":"was not asking for privilege,"},{"startTime":1129.41,"endTime":1131.39,"body":"the privilege of a separate legislature"},{"startTime":1131.39,"endTime":1133.16,"body":"within the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":1133.16,"endTime":1135.44,"body":"All they were arguing"},{"startTime":1133.16,"endTime":1135.44,"body":"for was the maintenance"},{"startTime":1135.44,"endTime":1138.26,"body":"of their existing constitutional position"},{"startTime":1138.26,"endTime":1141.053,"body":"as citizens and taxpayers"},{"startTime":1138.26,"endTime":1141.053,"body":"of the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":1141.98,"endTime":1146.57,"body":"Now in 1886, Joseph Chamberlain,"},{"startTime":1141.98,"endTime":1146.57,"body":"the liberal Unionist,"},{"startTime":1146.57,"endTime":1150.11,"body":"insisted that Ireland"},{"startTime":1146.57,"endTime":1150.11,"body":"consists of two nations."},{"startTime":1150.11,"endTime":1151.55,"body":"But for an Ulster Unionist,"},{"startTime":1151.55,"endTime":1155.24,"body":"Ulster could not by definition"},{"startTime":1151.55,"endTime":1155.24,"body":"be a separate nation."},{"startTime":1155.24,"endTime":1157.73,"body":"The essence of unionism"},{"startTime":1155.24,"endTime":1157.73,"body":"was that Ulster was part"},{"startTime":1157.73,"endTime":1159.44,"body":"of the British nation."},{"startTime":1159.44,"endTime":1162.98,"body":"So Ulster did not seek a home"},{"startTime":1159.44,"endTime":1162.98,"body":"rule Parliament of her own."},{"startTime":1162.98,"endTime":1165.71,"body":"What she wanted was continued"},{"startTime":1162.98,"endTime":1165.71,"body":"rule from Westminster"},{"startTime":1165.71,"endTime":1167.9,"body":"as part of the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":1167.9,"endTime":1170.93,"body":"In the words of the Ulster"},{"startTime":1167.9,"endTime":1170.93,"body":"Solemn League and Covenant,"},{"startTime":1170.93,"endTime":1172.28,"body":"signed in 1912,"},{"startTime":1172.28,"endTime":1174.507,"body":"Unionists sought, and I quote,"},{"startTime":1174.507,"endTime":1177.62,"body":"\"To preserve for ourselves"},{"startTime":1174.507,"endTime":1177.62,"body":"and our children,"},{"startTime":1177.62,"endTime":1180.62,"body":"our cherished position"},{"startTime":1177.62,"endTime":1180.62,"body":"of equal citizenship"},{"startTime":1180.62,"endTime":1182.87,"body":"in the United Kingdom.\""},{"startTime":1182.87,"endTime":1185.99,"body":"The nationalist claim"},{"startTime":1182.87,"endTime":1185.99,"body":"was based on nationhood,"},{"startTime":1185.99,"endTime":1189.29,"body":"the Unionist claim on citizenship."},{"startTime":1189.29,"endTime":1191.45,"body":"Now, while the Unionists"},{"startTime":1189.29,"endTime":1191.45,"body":"neither understood,"},{"startTime":1191.45,"endTime":1194.33,"body":"nor sympathized with"},{"startTime":1191.45,"endTime":1194.33,"body":"the nationalist claim,"},{"startTime":1194.33,"endTime":1195.86,"body":"few liberals understood,"},{"startTime":1195.86,"endTime":1198.26,"body":"or sympathized with the Unionist claim,"},{"startTime":1198.26,"endTime":1201.98,"body":"nor did they understand the"},{"startTime":1198.26,"endTime":1201.98,"body":"strength of Ulster's case."},{"startTime":1201.98,"endTime":1204.89,"body":"Many liberals regarded Ulster Unionists"},{"startTime":1204.89,"endTime":1207.83,"body":"as a disaffected minority within Ireland"},{"startTime":1207.83,"endTime":1208.663,"body":"and were prepared"},{"startTime":1208.663,"endTime":1212.18,"body":"to offer extensive"},{"startTime":1208.663,"endTime":1212.18,"body":"guarantees of minority rights"},{"startTime":1212.18,"endTime":1214.073,"body":"in the home rule constitution."},{"startTime":1215.18,"endTime":1217.79,"body":"But the Ulster Unionist"},{"startTime":1215.18,"endTime":1217.79,"body":"did not regard themselves"},{"startTime":1217.79,"endTime":1219.89,"body":"as a minority in Ireland,"},{"startTime":1219.89,"endTime":1222.98,"body":"but as part of the majority"},{"startTime":1219.89,"endTime":1222.98,"body":"within the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":1222.98,"endTime":1225.26,"body":"They were not therefore to be conciliated"},{"startTime":1225.26,"endTime":1228.35,"body":"by minority guarantees, however generous."},{"startTime":1228.35,"endTime":1230.42,"body":"They would not under any circumstances"},{"startTime":1230.42,"endTime":1232.58,"body":"accept rule from Dublin."},{"startTime":1232.58,"endTime":1234.11,"body":"What then would happen in Ulster"},{"startTime":1234.11,"endTime":1236.03,"body":"when home rule reached the Statute Book?"},{"startTime":1236.03,"endTime":1238.31,"body":"Could she resist home rule?"},{"startTime":1238.31,"endTime":1239.75,"body":"The Ulster questions seemed"},{"startTime":1239.75,"endTime":1242.33,"body":"to raise for many fundamental questions"},{"startTime":1242.33,"endTime":1244.22,"body":"of identity and allegiance,"},{"startTime":1244.22,"endTime":1247.7,"body":"lying beyond the to and"},{"startTime":1244.22,"endTime":1247.7,"body":"fro of electoral politics."},{"startTime":1247.7,"endTime":1250.91,"body":"The majority in Westminster had no right,"},{"startTime":1250.91,"endTime":1254.33,"body":"Unionists believed, to"},{"startTime":1250.91,"endTime":1254.33,"body":"extrude a part of the country"},{"startTime":1254.33,"endTime":1255.8,"body":"against its wishes,"},{"startTime":1255.8,"endTime":1258.05,"body":"and Ulster had an absolute right"},{"startTime":1258.05,"endTime":1259.76,"body":"to remain in the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":1259.76,"endTime":1262.13,"body":"for as long as its people wished."},{"startTime":1262.13,"endTime":1264.23,"body":"Were that right to be threatened,"},{"startTime":1264.23,"endTime":1266.63,"body":"Unionists believed that"},{"startTime":1264.23,"endTime":1266.63,"body":"Ulster had every right"},{"startTime":1266.63,"endTime":1269.15,"body":"to disobey the law since the contract"},{"startTime":1269.15,"endTime":1271.73,"body":"binding them to government"},{"startTime":1269.15,"endTime":1271.73,"body":"had been broken."},{"startTime":1271.73,"endTime":1275.33,"body":"Their loyalty was contractual"},{"startTime":1271.73,"endTime":1275.33,"body":"rather than unconditional."},{"startTime":1275.33,"endTime":1277.28,"body":"It depended upon the British government"},{"startTime":1277.28,"endTime":1280.43,"body":"respecting their constitutional position."},{"startTime":1280.43,"endTime":1283.34,"body":"Now, Ulster's stance"},{"startTime":1280.43,"endTime":1283.34,"body":"was strongly supported"},{"startTime":1283.34,"endTime":1285.59,"body":"by many Ireland army officers,"},{"startTime":1285.59,"endTime":1288.71,"body":"a number of whom came"},{"startTime":1285.59,"endTime":1288.71,"body":"from Anglo Irish families"},{"startTime":1288.71,"endTime":1291.92,"body":"and were steeped in the history"},{"startTime":1288.71,"endTime":1291.92,"body":"of the American Civil War,"},{"startTime":1291.92,"endTime":1294.56,"body":"which was part of the"},{"startTime":1291.92,"endTime":1294.56,"body":"syllabus at Sandhurst."},{"startTime":1294.56,"endTime":1297.05,"body":"And indeed Ulster"},{"startTime":1294.56,"endTime":1297.05,"body":"Unionists were accustomed"},{"startTime":1297.05,"endTime":1299.78,"body":"to assume the mantle of Abraham Lincoln,"},{"startTime":1299.78,"endTime":1304.25,"body":"especially since July, 1913"},{"startTime":1299.78,"endTime":1304.25,"body":"marked the 50th anniversary"},{"startTime":1304.25,"endTime":1306.17,"body":"of the Battle of Gettysburg."},{"startTime":1306.17,"endTime":1308.09,"body":"Home rulers, on the other hand,"},{"startTime":1308.09,"endTime":1310.28,"body":"were seen as rather like the secessionist"},{"startTime":1310.28,"endTime":1311.873,"body":"in the American Civil War."},{"startTime":1313.43,"endTime":1314.957,"body":"Now in July, 1912,"},{"startTime":1314.957,"endTime":1318.92,"body":"the conservative leader"},{"startTime":1314.957,"endTime":1318.92,"body":"Andrew Bonar Law declared"},{"startTime":1318.92,"endTime":1320.967,"body":"at a rally in Oxfordshire,"},{"startTime":1320.967,"endTime":1324.35,"body":"\"They the liberals may perhaps"},{"startTime":1320.967,"endTime":1324.35,"body":"carry their home rule bill"},{"startTime":1324.35,"endTime":1325.58,"body":"through the House of Commons."},{"startTime":1325.58,"endTime":1327.23,"body":"But what then?"},{"startTime":1327.23,"endTime":1329.87,"body":"I said the other day"},{"startTime":1327.23,"endTime":1329.87,"body":"there are stronger things"},{"startTime":1329.87,"endTime":1332.15,"body":"than parliamentary majorities.\""},{"startTime":1332.15,"endTime":1335.3,"body":"And he ended his speech"},{"startTime":1332.15,"endTime":1335.3,"body":"with fighting words."},{"startTime":1335.3,"endTime":1338.06,"body":"He said, \"I can imagine"},{"startTime":1335.3,"endTime":1338.06,"body":"no length of resistance"},{"startTime":1338.06,"endTime":1340.16,"body":"to which Ulster can go"},{"startTime":1340.16,"endTime":1343.16,"body":"in which I should not be"},{"startTime":1340.16,"endTime":1343.16,"body":"prepared to support them,"},{"startTime":1343.16,"endTime":1346.04,"body":"and in which in my belief"},{"startTime":1343.16,"endTime":1346.04,"body":"they would not be supported"},{"startTime":1346.04,"endTime":1349.67,"body":"by the overwhelming majority"},{"startTime":1346.04,"endTime":1349.67,"body":"of the British people.\""},{"startTime":1349.67,"endTime":1352.01,"body":"And this and other speeches were thought"},{"startTime":1352.01,"endTime":1354.68,"body":"by supporters of home"},{"startTime":1352.01,"endTime":1354.68,"body":"rule to be outrageous."},{"startTime":1354.68,"endTime":1357.29,"body":"And indeed Bonar Law as"},{"startTime":1354.68,"endTime":1357.29,"body":"lead of the opposition"},{"startTime":1357.29,"endTime":1358.85,"body":"was suggesting it was permissible"},{"startTime":1358.85,"endTime":1362.09,"body":"to resist an act of parliament by force."},{"startTime":1362.09,"endTime":1364.85,"body":"He insisted what he was"},{"startTime":1362.09,"endTime":1364.85,"body":"saying was little different"},{"startTime":1364.85,"endTime":1366.74,"body":"from what had been said before"},{"startTime":1366.74,"endTime":1367.79,"body":"and indeed in line"},{"startTime":1367.79,"endTime":1371.45,"body":"with the Whig doctrine of"},{"startTime":1367.79,"endTime":1371.45,"body":"resistance to oppression."},{"startTime":1371.45,"endTime":1374.997,"body":"Bonar Law used the"},{"startTime":1371.45,"endTime":1374.997,"body":"analogy of 1689, asking,"},{"startTime":1374.997,"endTime":1376.94,"body":"\"How can the descendants of those"},{"startTime":1376.94,"endTime":1380.96,"body":"who resisted King James II"},{"startTime":1376.94,"endTime":1380.96,"body":"say they have not a right"},{"startTime":1380.96,"endTime":1383.78,"body":"if they think fit to resist the imposition"},{"startTime":1383.78,"endTime":1386.54,"body":"of a government put upon them by force?\""},{"startTime":1386.54,"endTime":1388.61,"body":"Even further, he was to declare"},{"startTime":1388.61,"endTime":1390.65,"body":"that not only would the Army refuse"},{"startTime":1390.65,"endTime":1393.26,"body":"to obey orders to march against Ulster,"},{"startTime":1393.26,"endTime":1396.23,"body":"but he would encourage"},{"startTime":1393.26,"endTime":1396.23,"body":"them in this course."},{"startTime":1396.23,"endTime":1399.41,"body":"In November, 1913, speaking in Dublin,"},{"startTime":1399.41,"endTime":1402.65,"body":"he repeated the analogy with 1689,"},{"startTime":1402.65,"endTime":1406.52,"body":"declaring that James II had"},{"startTime":1402.65,"endTime":1406.52,"body":"behind him the letter of the law"},{"startTime":1406.52,"endTime":1409.91,"body":"just as completely as Mr. Asquith has now."},{"startTime":1409.91,"endTime":1413.09,"body":"In order to carry out"},{"startTime":1409.91,"endTime":1413.09,"body":"his despotic intention,"},{"startTime":1413.09,"endTime":1414.86,"body":"the king had the largest army"},{"startTime":1414.86,"endTime":1417.23,"body":"which had ever been seen in England."},{"startTime":1417.23,"endTime":1418.4,"body":"What happened?"},{"startTime":1418.4,"endTime":1420.11,"body":"There was no civil war."},{"startTime":1420.11,"endTime":1420.943,"body":"Why?"},{"startTime":1420.943,"endTime":1423.98,"body":"Because his own army"},{"startTime":1420.943,"endTime":1423.98,"body":"refused to fight for him."},{"startTime":1423.98,"endTime":1426.08,"body":"And these were not idle threats."},{"startTime":1426.08,"endTime":1427.79,"body":"Even before the Home Rule Bill"},{"startTime":1427.79,"endTime":1429.65,"body":"had been introduced in the Commons,"},{"startTime":1429.65,"endTime":1432.05,"body":"Sir Edward Carson told Ulster Protestants"},{"startTime":1432.05,"endTime":1435.89,"body":"to be prepared the"},{"startTime":1432.05,"endTime":1435.89,"body":"morning home rule passes"},{"startTime":1435.89,"endTime":1437.09,"body":"to become responsible"},{"startTime":1437.09,"endTime":1440.6,"body":"for the government of the"},{"startTime":1437.09,"endTime":1440.6,"body":"Protestant province of Ulster."},{"startTime":1440.6,"endTime":1441.71,"body":"The people of Ulster,"},{"startTime":1441.71,"endTime":1445.4,"body":"Bonar Law told the prime"},{"startTime":1441.71,"endTime":1445.4,"body":"minister in July, 1914,"},{"startTime":1445.4,"endTime":1447.56,"body":"knew they had a force"},{"startTime":1445.4,"endTime":1447.56,"body":"which would enable them"},{"startTime":1447.56,"endTime":1449.0,"body":"to hold the province."},{"startTime":1449.0,"endTime":1451.4,"body":"And with opinion divided in this country,"},{"startTime":1451.4,"endTime":1452.81,"body":"that is the rest of Britain,"},{"startTime":1452.81,"endTime":1454.16,"body":"it was quite impossible"},{"startTime":1454.16,"endTime":1456.11,"body":"that any force could be sent against them"},{"startTime":1456.11,"endTime":1457.67,"body":"that would dislodge them."},{"startTime":1457.67,"endTime":1460.58,"body":"Therefore, they knew that they"},{"startTime":1457.67,"endTime":1460.58,"body":"could get their own terms,"},{"startTime":1460.58,"endTime":1463.79,"body":"and it was certain they would"},{"startTime":1460.58,"endTime":1463.79,"body":"rather fight than give way."},{"startTime":1463.79,"endTime":1466.88,"body":"In other words, Ulster would"},{"startTime":1463.79,"endTime":1466.88,"body":"unilaterally declare separation"},{"startTime":1466.88,"endTime":1468.47,"body":"from the Irish parliament"},{"startTime":1468.47,"endTime":1470.723,"body":"once home rule was on the Statute Book."},{"startTime":1472.04,"endTime":1475.64,"body":"Now if Ulster was determined"},{"startTime":1472.04,"endTime":1475.64,"body":"to resist home rule by force,"},{"startTime":1475.64,"endTime":1477.5,"body":"the British government"},{"startTime":1475.64,"endTime":1477.5,"body":"could only include them"},{"startTime":1477.5,"endTime":1480.83,"body":"in a home rule bill by an"},{"startTime":1477.5,"endTime":1480.83,"body":"even greater display of force,"},{"startTime":1480.83,"endTime":1483.62,"body":"which would require use of the army."},{"startTime":1483.62,"endTime":1485.84,"body":"And this raised a number of questions."},{"startTime":1485.84,"endTime":1487.43,"body":"The first was whether the army,"},{"startTime":1487.43,"endTime":1488.84,"body":"some of whose senior officers"},{"startTime":1488.84,"endTime":1490.94,"body":"were themselves Irish Protestants,"},{"startTime":1490.94,"endTime":1493.19,"body":"would observe orders to coerce Ulster"},{"startTime":1493.19,"endTime":1495.26,"body":"into a Dublin parliament."},{"startTime":1495.26,"endTime":1498.44,"body":"The second was whether the"},{"startTime":1495.26,"endTime":1498.44,"body":"British people would be prepared"},{"startTime":1498.44,"endTime":1500.42,"body":"to support coercing Ulster."},{"startTime":1500.42,"endTime":1503.24,"body":"The third and perhaps"},{"startTime":1500.42,"endTime":1503.24,"body":"most important question"},{"startTime":1503.24,"endTime":1505.52,"body":"was how Ulster could be permanently held"},{"startTime":1505.52,"endTime":1508.49,"body":"under a Dublin parliament"},{"startTime":1505.52,"endTime":1508.49,"body":"against its wishes."},{"startTime":1508.49,"endTime":1509.72,"body":"The answer could only be"},{"startTime":1509.72,"endTime":1512.36,"body":"by British armed forces subduing her"},{"startTime":1512.36,"endTime":1515.12,"body":"and turning her into a conquered province,"},{"startTime":1515.12,"endTime":1516.257,"body":"while a home rule parliament"},{"startTime":1516.257,"endTime":1518.6,"body":"was being established in Dublin."},{"startTime":1518.6,"endTime":1521.18,"body":"And then once that parliament"},{"startTime":1518.6,"endTime":1521.18,"body":"had been established,"},{"startTime":1521.18,"endTime":1524.87,"body":"the Protestants of Ulster"},{"startTime":1521.18,"endTime":1524.87,"body":"would somehow accept home rule"},{"startTime":1524.87,"endTime":1527.36,"body":"so that the troops could be withdrawn."},{"startTime":1527.36,"endTime":1530.36,"body":"Now, one only has to"},{"startTime":1527.36,"endTime":1530.36,"body":"state such an assumption"},{"startTime":1530.36,"endTime":1532.373,"body":"to appreciate how absurd it was."},{"startTime":1533.54,"endTime":1535.79,"body":"So from the beginning,"},{"startTime":1535.79,"endTime":1537.65,"body":"the liberal government appreciated"},{"startTime":1537.65,"endTime":1539.9,"body":"that it might well have to exclude Ulster"},{"startTime":1539.9,"endTime":1542.03,"body":"from the Home Rule Bill."},{"startTime":1542.03,"endTime":1545.06,"body":"But exclusion did not,"},{"startTime":1542.03,"endTime":1545.06,"body":"liberals then believe,"},{"startTime":1545.06,"endTime":1547.64,"body":"implied permanent partition."},{"startTime":1547.64,"endTime":1550.34,"body":"Of the four dominions then in existence,"},{"startTime":1550.34,"endTime":1553.1,"body":"only New Zealand had not been partitioned."},{"startTime":1553.1,"endTime":1554.93,"body":"The others, Canada, Australia,"},{"startTime":1554.93,"endTime":1558.29,"body":"and South Africa had all"},{"startTime":1554.93,"endTime":1558.29,"body":"begun with partition,"},{"startTime":1558.29,"endTime":1560.03,"body":"but were now unified,"},{"startTime":1560.03,"endTime":1563.393,"body":"but unified by consent"},{"startTime":1560.03,"endTime":1563.393,"body":"rather than by force."},{"startTime":1564.32,"endTime":1567.23,"body":"But exclusion raised a difficult question."},{"startTime":1567.23,"endTime":1568.73,"body":"What was Ulster?"},{"startTime":1568.73,"endTime":1571.853,"body":"What counties should in fact be excluded?"},{"startTime":1572.87,"endTime":1575.0,"body":"Now in March, 1914,"},{"startTime":1575.0,"endTime":1578.63,"body":"Asquith, the liberal prime"},{"startTime":1575.0,"endTime":1578.63,"body":"minister, suggested a compromise."},{"startTime":1578.63,"endTime":1580.4,"body":"He proposed that on the petition"},{"startTime":1580.4,"endTime":1582.44,"body":"of 1/10th of the electorate,"},{"startTime":1582.44,"endTime":1584.48,"body":"any county in Ulster could choose"},{"startTime":1584.48,"endTime":1587.24,"body":"to vote itself out of"},{"startTime":1584.48,"endTime":1587.24,"body":"a home rule parliament"},{"startTime":1587.24,"endTime":1589.043,"body":"for a period of six years."},{"startTime":1589.91,"endTime":1591.74,"body":"After that period had ended,"},{"startTime":1591.74,"endTime":1594.32,"body":"it would automatically be included,"},{"startTime":1594.32,"endTime":1596.873,"body":"unless Westminster decided otherwise."},{"startTime":1597.98,"endTime":1600.02,"body":"Since there would be two general elections"},{"startTime":1600.02,"endTime":1601.94,"body":"during that six-year period,"},{"startTime":1601.94,"endTime":1604.4,"body":"it was open to British electors to decide"},{"startTime":1604.4,"endTime":1607.55,"body":"if they wished to alter"},{"startTime":1604.4,"endTime":1607.55,"body":"these arrangements."},{"startTime":1607.55,"endTime":1610.31,"body":"Now the practical"},{"startTime":1607.55,"endTime":1610.31,"body":"consequence of that would be"},{"startTime":1610.31,"endTime":1611.99,"body":"that just four counties,"},{"startTime":1611.99,"endTime":1616.88,"body":"Antrim, Armagh, Down and"},{"startTime":1611.99,"endTime":1616.88,"body":"Londonderry would be excluded."},{"startTime":1616.88,"endTime":1620.24,"body":"But the Unionists demanded"},{"startTime":1616.88,"endTime":1620.24,"body":"more than the four counties,"},{"startTime":1620.24,"endTime":1623.757,"body":"and Carson rejected"},{"startTime":1620.24,"endTime":1623.757,"body":"Asquith's compromise saying,"},{"startTime":1623.757,"endTime":1626.18,"body":"\"We do not want sentence of death"},{"startTime":1626.18,"endTime":1629.6,"body":"with a stay of execution for six years.\""},{"startTime":1629.6,"endTime":1631.4,"body":"Unionists objected to the fact"},{"startTime":1631.4,"endTime":1633.02,"body":"that after the six-year period,"},{"startTime":1633.02,"endTime":1636.47,"body":"Ulster would be compelled to"},{"startTime":1633.02,"endTime":1636.47,"body":"enter a home rule parliament."},{"startTime":1636.47,"endTime":1639.59,"body":"They insisted Ulster could"},{"startTime":1636.47,"endTime":1639.59,"body":"enter such a parliament only"},{"startTime":1639.59,"endTime":1642.11,"body":"on the basis of consent."},{"startTime":1642.11,"endTime":1643.97,"body":"Under Asquith's proposal,"},{"startTime":1643.97,"endTime":1646.22,"body":"the British voter would"},{"startTime":1643.97,"endTime":1646.22,"body":"be required to consent"},{"startTime":1646.22,"endTime":1649.1,"body":"in the two general elections"},{"startTime":1646.22,"endTime":1649.1,"body":"during the six-year period,"},{"startTime":1649.1,"endTime":1651.95,"body":"but Ulster's consent would not be needed."},{"startTime":1651.95,"endTime":1653.84,"body":"So there seemed to be a deadlock"},{"startTime":1653.84,"endTime":1656.54,"body":"and a real threat of civil war."},{"startTime":1656.54,"endTime":1659.33,"body":"And at this stage, Winston Churchill,"},{"startTime":1659.33,"endTime":1661.25,"body":"who was the First Lord of the Admiralty"},{"startTime":1661.25,"endTime":1664.67,"body":"in the liberal government,"},{"startTime":1661.25,"endTime":1664.67,"body":"added fuel to the flames."},{"startTime":1664.67,"endTime":1667.67,"body":"And in a speech which he thought"},{"startTime":1664.67,"endTime":1667.67,"body":"himself was conciliatory,"},{"startTime":1667.67,"endTime":1672.41,"body":"actually contributed to"},{"startTime":1667.67,"endTime":1672.41,"body":"the danger of violence."},{"startTime":1672.41,"endTime":1675.207,"body":"In March, 1914, he said,"},{"startTime":1675.207,"endTime":1680.207,"body":"\"If Ulster seeks peace and"},{"startTime":1675.207,"endTime":1680.207,"body":"fair play, she can find it."},{"startTime":1680.54,"endTime":1682.91,"body":"She knows where to find it.\""},{"startTime":1682.91,"endTime":1685.97,"body":"That was the conciliatory"},{"startTime":1682.91,"endTime":1685.97,"body":"part of his speech,"},{"startTime":1685.97,"endTime":1688.94,"body":"but it was drowned out by"},{"startTime":1685.97,"endTime":1688.94,"body":"the confrontational part,"},{"startTime":1688.94,"endTime":1691.43,"body":"which as so often with Churchill,"},{"startTime":1691.43,"endTime":1693.117,"body":"was the more memorable."},{"startTime":1693.117,"endTime":1696.17,"body":"\"The government's offer"},{"startTime":1693.117,"endTime":1696.17,"body":"was,\" he said, \"it's last."},{"startTime":1696.17,"endTime":1699.32,"body":"I do not say in detail, but in principle,"},{"startTime":1699.32,"endTime":1703.43,"body":"rebellion or disaffection in"},{"startTime":1699.32,"endTime":1703.43,"body":"Ulster will be firmly put down."},{"startTime":1703.43,"endTime":1705.2,"body":"Were the Unionists to persist"},{"startTime":1705.2,"endTime":1708.057,"body":"in rejecting the government's"},{"startTime":1705.2,"endTime":1708.057,"body":"offer,\" Churchill went on,"},{"startTime":1708.057,"endTime":1711.89,"body":"\"This would show that they"},{"startTime":1708.057,"endTime":1711.89,"body":"prefer shooting to voting."},{"startTime":1711.89,"endTime":1715.07,"body":"They would rather use the"},{"startTime":1711.89,"endTime":1715.07,"body":"bullets than the ballot.\""},{"startTime":1715.07,"endTime":1717.447,"body":"He then attacked the conservatives."},{"startTime":1717.447,"endTime":1720.56,"body":"\"There is no measure of military force"},{"startTime":1720.56,"endTime":1724.19,"body":"which the Tory Party"},{"startTime":1720.56,"endTime":1724.19,"body":"will not readily employ."},{"startTime":1724.19,"endTime":1727.643,"body":"They denounce all"},{"startTime":1724.19,"endTime":1727.643,"body":"violence except their own."},{"startTime":1728.66,"endTime":1733.66,"body":"They uphold all law except"},{"startTime":1728.66,"endTime":1733.66,"body":"the law they choose to break."},{"startTime":1733.73,"endTime":1737.42,"body":"They always welcome the"},{"startTime":1733.73,"endTime":1737.42,"body":"application of force to others,"},{"startTime":1737.42,"endTime":1740.93,"body":"but they themselves are to remain immune."},{"startTime":1740.93,"endTime":1742.94,"body":"They are to select from the Statute Book,"},{"startTime":1742.94,"endTime":1744.41,"body":"the laws they will obey"},{"startTime":1744.41,"endTime":1746.78,"body":"and the laws they will resist.\""},{"startTime":1746.78,"endTime":1750.38,"body":"He ended with a magnificent peroration."},{"startTime":1750.38,"endTime":1753.32,"body":"He said, \"If there is no wish for peace,"},{"startTime":1753.32,"endTime":1757.55,"body":"if every concession that is"},{"startTime":1753.32,"endTime":1757.55,"body":"made is spurned and exploited,"},{"startTime":1757.55,"endTime":1760.91,"body":"if every effort to meet their"},{"startTime":1757.55,"endTime":1760.91,"body":"views is only to be used"},{"startTime":1760.91,"endTime":1763.52,"body":"as a means of breaking down home rule"},{"startTime":1763.52,"endTime":1766.7,"body":"and of barring the way"},{"startTime":1763.52,"endTime":1766.7,"body":"to the rest of Ireland,"},{"startTime":1766.7,"endTime":1770.9,"body":"if Ulster is to become a"},{"startTime":1766.7,"endTime":1770.9,"body":"tool in party calculation,"},{"startTime":1770.9,"endTime":1773.24,"body":"if the civil and parliamentary systems"},{"startTime":1773.24,"endTime":1774.86,"body":"under which we have dwelt"},{"startTime":1774.86,"endTime":1778.22,"body":"and our fathers before"},{"startTime":1774.86,"endTime":1778.22,"body":"us for so many years"},{"startTime":1778.22,"endTime":1781.253,"body":"are to be brought to the"},{"startTime":1778.22,"endTime":1781.253,"body":"crude challenge of force,"},{"startTime":1782.18,"endTime":1784.85,"body":"if the government and the"},{"startTime":1782.18,"endTime":1784.85,"body":"parliament of this great country"},{"startTime":1784.85,"endTime":1789.143,"body":"and greater empire is to be"},{"startTime":1784.85,"endTime":1789.143,"body":"exposed to menace and brutality,"},{"startTime":1790.04,"endTime":1791.6,"body":"if all the loose wanton"},{"startTime":1791.6,"endTime":1794.78,"body":"and reckless chatter we have"},{"startTime":1791.6,"endTime":1794.78,"body":"been forced to listen to"},{"startTime":1794.78,"endTime":1797.0,"body":"all these many months is in the end"},{"startTime":1797.0,"endTime":1800.78,"body":"to disclose a sinister"},{"startTime":1797.0,"endTime":1800.78,"body":"and revolutionary purpose,"},{"startTime":1800.78,"endTime":1802.797,"body":"then gentlemen,\" he concluded,"},{"startTime":1802.797,"endTime":1807.14,"body":"\"I can say to you, let"},{"startTime":1802.797,"endTime":1807.14,"body":"us go forward together"},{"startTime":1807.14,"endTime":1810.137,"body":"and put these grave matters to the proof.\""},{"startTime":1811.01,"endTime":1813.65,"body":"Now, never one to waste a good phrase,"},{"startTime":1813.65,"endTime":1816.41,"body":"Churchill was to repeat this last sentence"},{"startTime":1816.41,"endTime":1820.043,"body":"in his challenge to"},{"startTime":1816.41,"endTime":1820.043,"body":"Hitler in January, 1940."},{"startTime":1821.39,"endTime":1824.6,"body":"Now, this speech won in great"},{"startTime":1821.39,"endTime":1824.6,"body":"popularity among liberals,"},{"startTime":1824.6,"endTime":1828.14,"body":"but it inflamed the Unionists"},{"startTime":1824.6,"endTime":1828.14,"body":"who were led to believe"},{"startTime":1828.14,"endTime":1831.59,"body":"that the government was about"},{"startTime":1828.14,"endTime":1831.59,"body":"to embark on drastic measures"},{"startTime":1831.59,"endTime":1834.47,"body":"by arresting Carson and"},{"startTime":1831.59,"endTime":1834.47,"body":"other Unionist leaders"},{"startTime":1834.47,"endTime":1838.13,"body":"and overhauling Ulster through"},{"startTime":1834.47,"endTime":1838.13,"body":"a display of military force."},{"startTime":1838.13,"endTime":1840.59,"body":"And it then rapidly became clear"},{"startTime":1840.59,"endTime":1843.11,"body":"that senior army officers"},{"startTime":1840.59,"endTime":1843.11,"body":"would not take part"},{"startTime":1843.11,"endTime":1844.943,"body":"in any coercion of Ulster."},{"startTime":1846.71,"endTime":1848.69,"body":"To try to achieve a settlement,"},{"startTime":1848.69,"endTime":1851.84,"body":"King George V called a"},{"startTime":1848.69,"endTime":1851.84,"body":"conference at Buckingham Palace"},{"startTime":1851.84,"endTime":1854.21,"body":"in June, 1914."},{"startTime":1854.21,"endTime":1855.68,"body":"The issues had, it seemed,"},{"startTime":1855.68,"endTime":1859.34,"body":"been narrowed to matters"},{"startTime":1855.68,"endTime":1859.34,"body":"relating to exclusion,"},{"startTime":1859.34,"endTime":1862.43,"body":"the length of time for which"},{"startTime":1859.34,"endTime":1862.43,"body":"Ulster was to be excluded"},{"startTime":1862.43,"endTime":1864.92,"body":"and the area to be excluded."},{"startTime":1864.92,"endTime":1868.52,"body":"The conference first considered"},{"startTime":1864.92,"endTime":1868.52,"body":"the area to be excluded,"},{"startTime":1868.52,"endTime":1869.48,"body":"but it never managed"},{"startTime":1869.48,"endTime":1872.36,"body":"to consider the length"},{"startTime":1869.48,"endTime":1872.36,"body":"of time of exclusion,"},{"startTime":1872.36,"endTime":1874.34,"body":"since it rapidly became deadlocked"},{"startTime":1874.34,"endTime":1877.64,"body":"on the question of the"},{"startTime":1874.34,"endTime":1877.64,"body":"area to be excluded."},{"startTime":1877.64,"endTime":1881.0,"body":"Nationalists insisted on a vote by county,"},{"startTime":1881.0,"endTime":1884.39,"body":"which would mean that just four"},{"startTime":1881.0,"endTime":1884.39,"body":"counties would be excluded."},{"startTime":1884.39,"endTime":1887.6,"body":"Unionists insisted on a clean"},{"startTime":1884.39,"endTime":1887.6,"body":"cut of the whole province,"},{"startTime":1887.6,"endTime":1890.513,"body":"that is nine counties, three"},{"startTime":1887.6,"endTime":1890.513,"body":"of which are now in Ireland."},{"startTime":1891.89,"endTime":1895.19,"body":"The conference then"},{"startTime":1891.89,"endTime":1895.19,"body":"considered dividing Ulster,"},{"startTime":1895.19,"endTime":1898.7,"body":"but it came to be deadlocked on Tyrone."},{"startTime":1898.7,"endTime":1901.16,"body":"John Redmond, the nationalist leader,"},{"startTime":1901.16,"endTime":1902.54,"body":"said he could never agree"},{"startTime":1902.54,"endTime":1905.483,"body":"to Tyrone being excluded from home rule."},{"startTime":1906.35,"endTime":1908.42,"body":"Carson, the Unionist leader,"},{"startTime":1908.42,"endTime":1910.04,"body":"insisted he could never agree"},{"startTime":1910.04,"endTime":1913.73,"body":"to Tyrone being included in home rule."},{"startTime":1913.73,"endTime":1916.283,"body":"There was a similar"},{"startTime":1913.73,"endTime":1916.283,"body":"deadlock over Fermanagh."},{"startTime":1917.12,"endTime":1920.45,"body":"Carson then proposed six-county exclusion"},{"startTime":1920.45,"endTime":1923.54,"body":"so that both Tyrone and"},{"startTime":1920.45,"endTime":1923.54,"body":"Fermanagh would be excluded"},{"startTime":1923.54,"endTime":1924.71,"body":"from home rule."},{"startTime":1924.71,"endTime":1927.08,"body":"But that too was unacceptable"},{"startTime":1924.71,"endTime":1927.08,"body":"for nationalists."},{"startTime":1927.08,"endTime":1930.44,"body":"This was in fact the first"},{"startTime":1927.08,"endTime":1930.44,"body":"time for the six-county Ulster,"},{"startTime":1930.44,"endTime":1932.03,"body":"the current Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":1932.03,"endTime":1934.583,"body":"was suggested as a proper"},{"startTime":1932.03,"endTime":1934.583,"body":"unit for exclusion."},{"startTime":1935.69,"endTime":1937.73,"body":"In an attempt to break the deadlock,"},{"startTime":1937.73,"endTime":1939.95,"body":"Asquith with great diffidence said"},{"startTime":1939.95,"endTime":1941.36,"body":"that if the conference could agree"},{"startTime":1941.36,"endTime":1943.46,"body":"on everything except Tyrone,"},{"startTime":1943.46,"endTime":1946.49,"body":"some impartial authority might be selected"},{"startTime":1946.49,"endTime":1950.42,"body":"who would undertake the task"},{"startTime":1946.49,"endTime":1950.42,"body":"of fairly dividing Tyrone."},{"startTime":1950.42,"endTime":1954.17,"body":"That too was rejected both by"},{"startTime":1950.42,"endTime":1954.17,"body":"nationalists and by Unionists."},{"startTime":1954.17,"endTime":1955.88,"body":"The conference broke down."},{"startTime":1955.88,"endTime":1958.34,"body":"It had not even discussed time limit."},{"startTime":1958.34,"endTime":1960.53,"body":"On the day before the conference ended,"},{"startTime":1960.53,"endTime":1962.42,"body":"Asquith wrote a very revealing letter"},{"startTime":1962.42,"endTime":1964.85,"body":"to his girlfriend, Venetia Stanley,"},{"startTime":1964.85,"endTime":1967.88,"body":"of what he said was that"},{"startTime":1964.85,"endTime":1967.88,"body":"most damnable creation"},{"startTime":1967.88,"endTime":1972.053,"body":"of the perverted ingenuity"},{"startTime":1967.88,"endTime":1972.053,"body":"of man, the county of Tyrone."},{"startTime":1973.07,"endTime":1975.92,"body":"The extraordinary"},{"startTime":1973.07,"endTime":1975.92,"body":"feature of the discussion"},{"startTime":1975.92,"endTime":1977.99,"body":"was the complete agreement in principle"},{"startTime":1977.99,"endTime":1979.79,"body":"of Redmond and Carson."},{"startTime":1979.79,"endTime":1983.03,"body":"Each said, \"I must have"},{"startTime":1979.79,"endTime":1983.03,"body":"the whole of Tyrone or die,"},{"startTime":1983.03,"endTime":1986.33,"body":"but I quite understand"},{"startTime":1983.03,"endTime":1986.33,"body":"why you say the same.\""},{"startTime":1986.33,"endTime":1990.05,"body":"The speaker who incarnates bluff"},{"startTime":1986.33,"endTime":1990.05,"body":"unimaginative English sense"},{"startTime":1990.05,"endTime":1991.7,"body":"of course cut in."},{"startTime":1991.7,"endTime":1994.49,"body":"When each of two people say"},{"startTime":1991.7,"endTime":1994.49,"body":"they must have the whole,"},{"startTime":1994.49,"endTime":1996.56,"body":"why not cut it in half?"},{"startTime":1996.56,"endTime":1999.35,"body":"They would neither of them"},{"startTime":1996.56,"endTime":1999.35,"body":"look at such a suggestion."},{"startTime":1999.35,"endTime":2001.93,"body":"Nothing could have been"},{"startTime":1999.35,"endTime":2001.93,"body":"more amicable in tone"},{"startTime":2001.93,"endTime":2004.607,"body":"or more desperately fruitless in result."},{"startTime":2004.607,"endTime":2007.157,"body":"\"Aren't they a remarkable"},{"startTime":2004.607,"endTime":2007.157,"body":"people,\" Asquith said,"},{"startTime":2007.157,"endTime":2010.06,"body":"\"and the folly of thinking"},{"startTime":2007.157,"endTime":2010.06,"body":"that we can ever understand,"},{"startTime":2010.06,"endTime":2012.04,"body":"let alone govern them.\""},{"startTime":2012.04,"endTime":2013.24,"body":"Now after the conference,"},{"startTime":2013.24,"endTime":2015.46,"body":"Asquith made a further concession,"},{"startTime":2015.46,"endTime":2017.95,"body":"saying if county option was agreed,"},{"startTime":2017.95,"endTime":2020.86,"body":"he was prepared to allow"},{"startTime":2017.95,"endTime":2020.86,"body":"continued exclusion"},{"startTime":2020.86,"endTime":2023.443,"body":"after six years of significant concession."},{"startTime":2024.73,"endTime":2027.04,"body":"The Home Rule Bill became law"},{"startTime":2027.04,"endTime":2030.46,"body":"on the 15th of September, 1914,"},{"startTime":2030.46,"endTime":2033.79,"body":"six weeks after the First"},{"startTime":2030.46,"endTime":2033.79,"body":"World War had begun."},{"startTime":2033.79,"endTime":2036.07,"body":"But its operation was to be suspended"},{"startTime":2036.07,"endTime":2037.75,"body":"until the end of the war."},{"startTime":2037.75,"endTime":2041.2,"body":"And Asquith promised he would"},{"startTime":2037.75,"endTime":2041.2,"body":"reintroduce an amending bill"},{"startTime":2041.2,"endTime":2043.21,"body":"in the next parliamentary session"},{"startTime":2043.21,"endTime":2045.7,"body":"before home rule came into effect,"},{"startTime":2045.7,"endTime":2048.67,"body":"so that it could be modified"},{"startTime":2045.7,"endTime":2048.67,"body":"with general consent,"},{"startTime":2048.67,"endTime":2052.03,"body":"and Ulster, however"},{"startTime":2048.67,"endTime":2052.03,"body":"defined, could be excluded."},{"startTime":2052.03,"endTime":2054.85,"body":"He insisted it would be"},{"startTime":2052.03,"endTime":2054.85,"body":"absolutely unthinkable"},{"startTime":2054.85,"endTime":2058.0,"body":"amidst this great"},{"startTime":2054.85,"endTime":2058.0,"body":"patriotic spirit of union"},{"startTime":2058.0,"endTime":2060.55,"body":"to use force, any kind of force,"},{"startTime":2060.55,"endTime":2062.287,"body":"for what you call a coercion of Ulster."},{"startTime":2062.287,"endTime":2065.38,"body":"But what was to count as"},{"startTime":2062.287,"endTime":2065.38,"body":"Ulster was still not defined."},{"startTime":2065.38,"endTime":2066.79,"body":"Now, many historians believe"},{"startTime":2066.79,"endTime":2070.75,"body":"that Britain was near to"},{"startTime":2066.79,"endTime":2070.75,"body":"civil war in 1914 over Ulster."},{"startTime":2070.75,"endTime":2074.32,"body":"And in my book I explain why"},{"startTime":2070.75,"endTime":2074.32,"body":"I do not share that view."},{"startTime":2074.32,"endTime":2077.53,"body":"There was certainly a threat"},{"startTime":2074.32,"endTime":2077.53,"body":"of armed revolt from Ulster,"},{"startTime":2077.53,"endTime":2080.23,"body":"but Ulster posed a threat of civil war"},{"startTime":2080.23,"endTime":2081.94,"body":"only if she could command support"},{"startTime":2081.94,"endTime":2084.1,"body":"from this side of the Irish Sea."},{"startTime":2084.1,"endTime":2087.58,"body":"And by 1914, that was becoming doubtful."},{"startTime":2087.58,"endTime":2090.7,"body":"Conservatives were being"},{"startTime":2087.58,"endTime":2090.7,"body":"increasingly worried"},{"startTime":2090.7,"endTime":2093.97,"body":"as to the international"},{"startTime":2090.7,"endTime":2093.97,"body":"implications of the Ulster conflict"},{"startTime":2093.97,"endTime":2098.92,"body":"and fearful that enemy powers"},{"startTime":2093.97,"endTime":2098.92,"body":"might take advantage of it."},{"startTime":2098.92,"endTime":2102.1,"body":"The conservatives would not"},{"startTime":2098.92,"endTime":2102.1,"body":"have pressed their Ulster policy"},{"startTime":2102.1,"endTime":2104.23,"body":"were it of damage of"},{"startTime":2102.1,"endTime":2104.23,"body":"the unity of the country"},{"startTime":2104.23,"endTime":2106.57,"body":"in the face of a hostile Germany."},{"startTime":2106.57,"endTime":2108.88,"body":"They were aware that precipitated action"},{"startTime":2108.88,"endTime":2112.24,"body":"would lose the support of"},{"startTime":2108.88,"endTime":2112.24,"body":"public opinion in Britain."},{"startTime":2112.24,"endTime":2115.6,"body":"But in any case, what would"},{"startTime":2112.24,"endTime":2115.6,"body":"Ulster be rebelling against?"},{"startTime":2115.6,"endTime":2117.31,"body":"By August, 1914,"},{"startTime":2117.31,"endTime":2120.49,"body":"her right to exclusion had"},{"startTime":2117.31,"endTime":2120.49,"body":"been accepted by liberals"},{"startTime":2120.49,"endTime":2123.58,"body":"and also, though"},{"startTime":2120.49,"endTime":2123.58,"body":"unwillingly, by nationalists."},{"startTime":2123.58,"endTime":2125.68,"body":"Ulster's important concession"},{"startTime":2125.68,"endTime":2128.17,"body":"that there would be exclusion"},{"startTime":2125.68,"endTime":2128.17,"body":"on the basis of county option"},{"startTime":2128.17,"endTime":2130.72,"body":"without time limit gave the Unionists much"},{"startTime":2130.72,"endTime":2132.67,"body":"of what they were fighting for."},{"startTime":2132.67,"endTime":2134.35,"body":"There was admittedly no agreement"},{"startTime":2134.35,"endTime":2136.03,"body":"on the area to be excluded,"},{"startTime":2136.03,"endTime":2138.31,"body":"but as Lloyd George was later to put it,"},{"startTime":2138.31,"endTime":2139.93,"body":"men would die for the empire,"},{"startTime":2139.93,"endTime":2142.69,"body":"but not for Tyrone and Fermanagh."},{"startTime":2142.69,"endTime":2145.75,"body":"There would no doubt have been"},{"startTime":2142.69,"endTime":2145.75,"body":"riots and fighting in Ulster"},{"startTime":2145.75,"endTime":2147.187,"body":"and perhaps elsewhere in Ireland,"},{"startTime":2147.187,"endTime":2149.5,"body":"and the borders of the excluded area"},{"startTime":2149.5,"endTime":2152.23,"body":"might well have been"},{"startTime":2149.5,"endTime":2152.23,"body":"eventually determined by force,"},{"startTime":2152.23,"endTime":2154.21,"body":"but the fighting would"},{"startTime":2152.23,"endTime":2154.21,"body":"probably not have spread"},{"startTime":2154.21,"endTime":2156.25,"body":"to this side of the Irish Sea."},{"startTime":2156.25,"endTime":2158.74,"body":"The Ulster Unionist, to be successful,"},{"startTime":2158.74,"endTime":2161.437,"body":"would've needed wide"},{"startTime":2158.74,"endTime":2161.437,"body":"support outside Ireland."},{"startTime":2161.437,"endTime":2162.4,"body":"And the public"},{"startTime":2162.4,"endTime":2165.31,"body":"on this side of the Irish"},{"startTime":2162.4,"endTime":2165.31,"body":"Sea would've asked itself"},{"startTime":2165.31,"endTime":2167.26,"body":"why there should be a battle for something"},{"startTime":2167.26,"endTime":2170.26,"body":"that had already been"},{"startTime":2167.26,"endTime":2170.26,"body":"in principle conceded."},{"startTime":2170.26,"endTime":2171.85,"body":"Unionists outside Ireland"},{"startTime":2171.85,"endTime":2174.19,"body":"would not have supported armed rebellion"},{"startTime":2174.19,"endTime":2175.81,"body":"against an act of parliament,"},{"startTime":2175.81,"endTime":2178.03,"body":"which was giving Ulster"},{"startTime":2175.81,"endTime":2178.03,"body":"much of what it sought,"},{"startTime":2178.03,"endTime":2180.58,"body":"and the public would not"},{"startTime":2178.03,"endTime":2180.58,"body":"have supported either."},{"startTime":2180.58,"endTime":2183.43,"body":"It was therefore not"},{"startTime":2180.58,"endTime":2183.43,"body":"clear who would fight who"},{"startTime":2183.43,"endTime":2185.02,"body":"in a civil war in Britain,"},{"startTime":2185.02,"endTime":2187.54,"body":"nor what they would be fighting about."},{"startTime":2187.54,"endTime":2189.04,"body":"Liberals and conservatives were"},{"startTime":2189.04,"endTime":2191.41,"body":"in fact much closer in Irish matters"},{"startTime":2191.41,"endTime":2193.69,"body":"than others were prepared to admit."},{"startTime":2193.69,"endTime":2195.19,"body":"At the outbreak of war,"},{"startTime":2195.19,"endTime":2197.47,"body":"home rule, on the basis of partition,"},{"startTime":2197.47,"endTime":2199.423,"body":"appeared a fait accompli."},{"startTime":2200.41,"endTime":2202.33,"body":"And perhaps a Dublin parliament,"},{"startTime":2202.33,"endTime":2204.73,"body":"which would follow as Redmond hoped,"},{"startTime":2204.73,"endTime":2207.88,"body":"conciliatory and consensual"},{"startTime":2204.73,"endTime":2207.88,"body":"policies would not"},{"startTime":2207.88,"endTime":2210.01,"body":"in the end have appeared as dangerous"},{"startTime":2210.01,"endTime":2213.52,"body":"to the Protestant population"},{"startTime":2210.01,"endTime":2213.52,"body":"of Ulster as had been believed,"},{"startTime":2213.52,"endTime":2216.22,"body":"in which case Ireland"},{"startTime":2213.52,"endTime":2216.22,"body":"could have been reunited"},{"startTime":2216.22,"endTime":2217.99,"body":"just as Canada and Australia"},{"startTime":2217.99,"endTime":2220.03,"body":"and South Africa had been reunited"},{"startTime":2220.03,"endTime":2222.46,"body":"after initially being partitioned."},{"startTime":2222.46,"endTime":2223.96,"body":"Carson, the Unionist leader,"},{"startTime":2223.96,"endTime":2226.54,"body":"certainly hoped this would prove the case."},{"startTime":2226.54,"endTime":2227.47,"body":"He was, as I've said,"},{"startTime":2227.47,"endTime":2231.16,"body":"an Irish Unionist who hoped"},{"startTime":2227.47,"endTime":2231.16,"body":"to avoid home rule entirely."},{"startTime":2231.16,"endTime":2233.47,"body":"He saw home rule as a second best,"},{"startTime":2233.47,"endTime":2235.6,"body":"but partition as a third best."},{"startTime":2235.6,"endTime":2237.94,"body":"And he hoped that home rule could,"},{"startTime":2237.94,"endTime":2240.19,"body":"with conciliation on both sides,"},{"startTime":2240.19,"endTime":2243.55,"body":"be a prelude to the"},{"startTime":2240.19,"endTime":2243.55,"body":"restoration of Irish unity."},{"startTime":2243.55,"endTime":2246.31,"body":"So in 1914, home rule seemed almost"},{"startTime":2246.31,"endTime":2248.68,"body":"to have answered the Irish question."},{"startTime":2248.68,"endTime":2250.87,"body":"When war broke out, Redmond,"},{"startTime":2250.87,"endTime":2253.75,"body":"the nationalist leader declared"},{"startTime":2250.87,"endTime":2253.75,"body":"the government could take"},{"startTime":2253.75,"endTime":2255.67,"body":"all British troops out of Ireland."},{"startTime":2255.67,"endTime":2258.4,"body":"Nationalists would"},{"startTime":2255.67,"endTime":2258.4,"body":"themselves defend Ireland,"},{"startTime":2258.4,"endTime":2260.59,"body":"joining with Ulstermen to do so."},{"startTime":2260.59,"endTime":2262.36,"body":"Unionists cheered in parliament"},{"startTime":2262.36,"endTime":2264.37,"body":"and waved their order papers."},{"startTime":2264.37,"endTime":2267.19,"body":"On 18th of September, 1914,"},{"startTime":2267.19,"endTime":2269.89,"body":"the day on which parliament was prorogued,"},{"startTime":2269.89,"endTime":2273.25,"body":"the labor MP Will Crooks asked MPs"},{"startTime":2273.25,"endTime":2275.617,"body":"to sing \"God Save the King.\""},{"startTime":2276.76,"endTime":2278.71,"body":"The nationalists joined in,"},{"startTime":2278.71,"endTime":2282.19,"body":"and Crooks cried out, \"God save Ireland,\""},{"startTime":2282.19,"endTime":2286.657,"body":"to which Redmond replied,"},{"startTime":2282.19,"endTime":2286.657,"body":"\"And God save England too.\""},{"startTime":2287.77,"endTime":2289.6,"body":"At Woodenbridge, County Wicklow,"},{"startTime":2289.6,"endTime":2292.157,"body":"on the 21st of September, Redmond said,"},{"startTime":2292.157,"endTime":2296.05,"body":"\"This war is undertaken in"},{"startTime":2292.157,"endTime":2296.05,"body":"defense of the highest principles"},{"startTime":2296.05,"endTime":2298.15,"body":"of religion, morality, and right.\""},{"startTime":2298.15,"endTime":2300.52,"body":"And on the 15th of September,"},{"startTime":2300.52,"endTime":2302.467,"body":"when the Commons was"},{"startTime":2300.52,"endTime":2302.467,"body":"debating the home rule"},{"startTime":2302.467,"endTime":2304.12,"body":"and suspensory bills,"},{"startTime":2304.12,"endTime":2307.78,"body":"he declared, \"In this war,"},{"startTime":2304.12,"endTime":2307.78,"body":"I say for the first time,"},{"startTime":2307.78,"endTime":2310.12,"body":"certainly for over a hundred years,"},{"startTime":2310.12,"endTime":2311.77,"body":"I feel that Ireland's interests"},{"startTime":2311.77,"endTime":2314.38,"body":"are precisely the same as yours."},{"startTime":2314.38,"endTime":2316.33,"body":"She feels and will feel"},{"startTime":2316.33,"endTime":2319.36,"body":"that the British democracy"},{"startTime":2316.33,"endTime":2319.36,"body":"has kept faith with her."},{"startTime":2319.36,"endTime":2321.52,"body":"She knows this is a just war."},{"startTime":2321.52,"endTime":2324.07,"body":"She has moved in a very special way"},{"startTime":2324.07,"endTime":2326.2,"body":"by the fact this war is undertaken"},{"startTime":2326.2,"endTime":2329.65,"body":"in the defense of small"},{"startTime":2326.2,"endTime":2329.65,"body":"nations and oppressed peoples.\""},{"startTime":2329.65,"endTime":2332.653,"body":"He was thinking, of course,"},{"startTime":2329.65,"endTime":2332.653,"body":"of Belgium and Serbia."},{"startTime":2334.36,"endTime":2336.37,"body":"Now the promise of home"},{"startTime":2334.36,"endTime":2336.37,"body":"rule then did much,"},{"startTime":2336.37,"endTime":2338.11,"body":"for a short time at least,"},{"startTime":2338.11,"endTime":2343.11,"body":"to mollify historically"},{"startTime":2338.11,"endTime":2343.11,"body":"embittered Anglo Irish relations."},{"startTime":2343.3,"endTime":2346.42,"body":"And whether home rule in"},{"startTime":2343.3,"endTime":2346.42,"body":"the absence of the war"},{"startTime":2346.42,"endTime":2348.1,"body":"would've proved a final settlement"},{"startTime":2348.1,"endTime":2351.43,"body":"of the Irish question is, of"},{"startTime":2348.1,"endTime":2351.43,"body":"course, impossible to know."},{"startTime":2351.43,"endTime":2353.89,"body":"It might well have"},{"startTime":2351.43,"endTime":2353.89,"body":"stimulated an Irish demand"},{"startTime":2353.89,"endTime":2355.42,"body":"for dominion status,"},{"startTime":2355.42,"endTime":2357.43,"body":"independence within the Commonwealth,"},{"startTime":2357.43,"endTime":2359.17,"body":"as was eventually to be achieved,"},{"startTime":2359.17,"endTime":2363.91,"body":"but after much fighting in the"},{"startTime":2359.17,"endTime":2363.91,"body":"Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921."},{"startTime":2363.91,"endTime":2364.743,"body":"Without the war,"},{"startTime":2364.743,"endTime":2367.75,"body":"there might have been a peaceful"},{"startTime":2364.743,"endTime":2367.75,"body":"evolution to this status"},{"startTime":2367.75,"endTime":2370.42,"body":"rather than the conflict"},{"startTime":2367.75,"endTime":2370.42,"body":"that were to ensue,"},{"startTime":2370.42,"endTime":2374.62,"body":"the Easter Rising of 1916,"},{"startTime":2370.42,"endTime":2374.62,"body":"the Anglo Irish Gorilla War,"},{"startTime":2374.62,"endTime":2377.5,"body":"the Black and Tans, and"},{"startTime":2374.62,"endTime":2377.5,"body":"the Irish Civil War."},{"startTime":2377.5,"endTime":2379.72,"body":"Britain seemed to have"},{"startTime":2377.5,"endTime":2379.72,"body":"accepted that in future,"},{"startTime":2379.72,"endTime":2382.483,"body":"Ireland would be governed"},{"startTime":2379.72,"endTime":2382.483,"body":"by consent, not by force."},{"startTime":2383.38,"endTime":2386.02,"body":"And the Irish government"},{"startTime":2383.38,"endTime":2386.02,"body":"had recognized partition"},{"startTime":2386.02,"endTime":2389.56,"body":"in international law since 1922,"},{"startTime":2389.56,"endTime":2392.32,"body":"but as a regrettable necessity."},{"startTime":2392.32,"endTime":2394.27,"body":"Though partition was not to be fully"},{"startTime":2394.27,"endTime":2397.21,"body":"and formally accepted"},{"startTime":2394.27,"endTime":2397.21,"body":"by Irish nationalists"},{"startTime":2397.21,"endTime":2401.5,"body":"until the Belfast or Good"},{"startTime":2397.21,"endTime":2401.5,"body":"Friday Agreement of 1998,"},{"startTime":2401.5,"endTime":2403.99,"body":"in which both Ireland and Britain accepted"},{"startTime":2403.99,"endTime":2406.48,"body":"that Irish unity could only be achieved"},{"startTime":2406.48,"endTime":2409.9,"body":"when a majority in Northern"},{"startTime":2406.48,"endTime":2409.9,"body":"Ireland consented to it."},{"startTime":2409.9,"endTime":2412.66,"body":"Irish voters agreed in a referendum"},{"startTime":2412.66,"endTime":2416.23,"body":"to amend Articles 2 and 3"},{"startTime":2412.66,"endTime":2416.23,"body":"of the Irish Constitution,"},{"startTime":2416.23,"endTime":2419.38,"body":"which had laid claim to the"},{"startTime":2416.23,"endTime":2419.38,"body":"whole island of Ireland."},{"startTime":2419.38,"endTime":2420.617,"body":"And it may be argued"},{"startTime":2420.617,"endTime":2422.74,"body":"that the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement"},{"startTime":2422.74,"endTime":2426.7,"body":"needed a retrospective"},{"startTime":2422.74,"endTime":2426.7,"body":"mandate for partition"},{"startTime":2426.7,"endTime":2429.28,"body":"and retrospective"},{"startTime":2426.7,"endTime":2429.28,"body":"legitimation of the solution"},{"startTime":2429.28,"endTime":2432.37,"body":"so torturously reached by 1914,"},{"startTime":2432.37,"endTime":2436.06,"body":"a solution which recognized,"},{"startTime":2432.37,"endTime":2436.06,"body":"as far as was possible,"},{"startTime":2436.06,"endTime":2437.77,"body":"the right of self-determination"},{"startTime":2437.77,"endTime":2440.2,"body":"of both nationalists and Unionists."},{"startTime":2440.2,"endTime":2442.36,"body":"But the war changed everything."},{"startTime":2442.36,"endTime":2444.94,"body":"And after the war, home"},{"startTime":2442.36,"endTime":2444.94,"body":"rule was to be implemented,"},{"startTime":2444.94,"endTime":2448.57,"body":"ironically only in the six"},{"startTime":2444.94,"endTime":2448.57,"body":"counties of Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":2448.57,"endTime":2450.91,"body":"which would in fact have"},{"startTime":2448.57,"endTime":2450.91,"body":"preferred continued rule"},{"startTime":2450.91,"endTime":2451.873,"body":"from Westminster."},{"startTime":2452.92,"endTime":2454.93,"body":"But home rule was no longer acceptable"},{"startTime":2454.93,"endTime":2456.55,"body":"to nationalist opinion."},{"startTime":2456.55,"endTime":2459.67,"body":"By 1918, the Irish Parliamentary Party"},{"startTime":2459.67,"endTime":2462.64,"body":"had been electorally"},{"startTime":2459.67,"endTime":2462.64,"body":"obliterated by Sinn Fein,"},{"startTime":2462.64,"endTime":2464.26,"body":"which sought independence."},{"startTime":2464.26,"endTime":2467.41,"body":"And Ireland outside the six"},{"startTime":2464.26,"endTime":2467.41,"body":"counties moved to independence"},{"startTime":2467.41,"endTime":2470.41,"body":"in 1921 after the gorilla war,"},{"startTime":2470.41,"endTime":2473.62,"body":"and then in 1949 left the Commonwealth,"},{"startTime":2473.62,"endTime":2474.85,"body":"even though the Commonwealth"},{"startTime":2474.85,"endTime":2477.4,"body":"by then would not have"},{"startTime":2474.85,"endTime":2477.4,"body":"threatened Ireland's status"},{"startTime":2477.4,"endTime":2478.66,"body":"as a republic,"},{"startTime":2478.66,"endTime":2480.22,"body":"nor the role of her head of state."},{"startTime":2480.22,"endTime":2482.95,"body":"And Ireland together"},{"startTime":2480.22,"endTime":2482.95,"body":"with Burma and Myanmar,"},{"startTime":2482.95,"endTime":2485.89,"body":"are the only countries"},{"startTime":2482.95,"endTime":2485.89,"body":"once ruled by Britain,"},{"startTime":2485.89,"endTime":2488.74,"body":"which are not now in the commonwealth."},{"startTime":2488.74,"endTime":2490.18,"body":"And relations between Britain"},{"startTime":2490.18,"endTime":2492.4,"body":"and Ireland became more distant."},{"startTime":2492.4,"endTime":2496.03,"body":"Ireland supported Britain's"},{"startTime":2492.4,"endTime":2496.03,"body":"war effort in 1914,"},{"startTime":2496.03,"endTime":2500.26,"body":"but not in 1939 when she remained neutral."},{"startTime":2500.26,"endTime":2504.46,"body":"And after the 1914-18"},{"startTime":2500.26,"endTime":2504.46,"body":"War, the Irish problem,"},{"startTime":2504.46,"endTime":2506.953,"body":"which appeared to have"},{"startTime":2504.46,"endTime":2506.953,"body":"been solved, reappeared."},{"startTime":2508.15,"endTime":2509.86,"body":"In Churchill's graphic words"},{"startTime":2509.86,"endTime":2513.227,"body":"from his book on the war"},{"startTime":2509.86,"endTime":2513.227,"body":"called \"The World Crisis,\""},{"startTime":2513.227,"endTime":2515.98,"body":"\"Then came the Great War."},{"startTime":2515.98,"endTime":2520.06,"body":"Every institution almost"},{"startTime":2515.98,"endTime":2520.06,"body":"in the world was strained."},{"startTime":2520.06,"endTime":2523.06,"body":"Great empires have been overturned."},{"startTime":2523.06,"endTime":2526.15,"body":"The whole map of Europe has been changed."},{"startTime":2526.15,"endTime":2530.56,"body":"The mode of thought of men,"},{"startTime":2526.15,"endTime":2530.56,"body":"the whole outlook on affairs,"},{"startTime":2530.56,"endTime":2534.28,"body":"the grouping of parties all"},{"startTime":2530.56,"endTime":2534.28,"body":"have encountered violent"},{"startTime":2534.28,"endTime":2537.403,"body":"and tremendous changes in"},{"startTime":2534.28,"endTime":2537.403,"body":"the deluge of the world."},{"startTime":2538.42,"endTime":2542.23,"body":"But as the deluge"},{"startTime":2538.42,"endTime":2542.23,"body":"subsides and waters fall,"},{"startTime":2542.23,"endTime":2545.68,"body":"we see the dreary steeples"},{"startTime":2542.23,"endTime":2545.68,"body":"of Fermanagh and Tyrone"},{"startTime":2545.68,"endTime":2547.541,"body":"emerging once again."},{"startTime":2547.541,"endTime":2548.89,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2548.89,"endTime":2551.11,"body":"The integrity of their quarrel"},{"startTime":2551.11,"endTime":2554.38,"body":"is one of the few institutions"},{"startTime":2551.11,"endTime":2554.38,"body":"that have been unaltered"},{"startTime":2554.38,"endTime":2557.32,"body":"in the cataclysm which"},{"startTime":2554.38,"endTime":2557.32,"body":"has swept the world.\""},{"startTime":2557.32,"endTime":2558.46,"body":"Though it wasn't unaltered,"},{"startTime":2558.46,"endTime":2559.993,"body":"it was, I think, strengthened."},{"startTime":2561.34,"endTime":2564.52,"body":"Ireland settled down"},{"startTime":2561.34,"endTime":2564.52,"body":"after a brutal civil war"},{"startTime":2564.52,"endTime":2566.83,"body":"to become a parliamentary democracy."},{"startTime":2566.83,"endTime":2568.3,"body":"Northern Ireland emerged"},{"startTime":2568.3,"endTime":2571.75,"body":"as a statelet comprising six counties."},{"startTime":2571.75,"endTime":2575.47,"body":"Until 1972, it was run by the Unionists,"},{"startTime":2575.47,"endTime":2579.19,"body":"but not in the spirit of"},{"startTime":2575.47,"endTime":2579.19,"body":"conciliation as Carson had hoped."},{"startTime":2579.19,"endTime":2582.25,"body":"Instead, there was gross"},{"startTime":2579.19,"endTime":2582.25,"body":"discrimination against Catholics,"},{"startTime":2582.25,"endTime":2585.01,"body":"particularly in housing and employment."},{"startTime":2585.01,"endTime":2586.81,"body":"And this led in the 1960s"},{"startTime":2586.81,"endTime":2589.18,"body":"to the growth of a Civil Rights Movement,"},{"startTime":2589.18,"endTime":2591.88,"body":"and then to the upsurge of terrorism"},{"startTime":2591.88,"endTime":2593.62,"body":"by the provisional IRA,"},{"startTime":2593.62,"endTime":2596.653,"body":"which sought to secure Irish"},{"startTime":2593.62,"endTime":2596.653,"body":"unity by violent means."},{"startTime":2598.42,"endTime":2600.22,"body":"But in 1998,"},{"startTime":2600.22,"endTime":2603.55,"body":"the British and Irish governments"},{"startTime":2600.22,"endTime":2603.55,"body":"negotiated the Belfast"},{"startTime":2603.55,"endTime":2606.4,"body":"or Good Friday Agreement,"},{"startTime":2603.55,"endTime":2606.4,"body":"a huge step forward."},{"startTime":2606.4,"endTime":2608.5,"body":"It was accepted by both governments"},{"startTime":2608.5,"endTime":2611.86,"body":"that Irish unity could only"},{"startTime":2608.5,"endTime":2611.86,"body":"be achieved by consent."},{"startTime":2611.86,"endTime":2613.9,"body":"In the absence of such consent,"},{"startTime":2613.9,"endTime":2615.55,"body":"it was agreed that in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":2615.55,"endTime":2617.32,"body":"the nationalist minority,"},{"startTime":2617.32,"endTime":2619.06,"body":"as well as the Unionist majority"},{"startTime":2619.06,"endTime":2623.02,"body":"would enjoy a guaranteed"},{"startTime":2619.06,"endTime":2623.02,"body":"place in governing Ulster"},{"startTime":2623.02,"endTime":2626.113,"body":"so that discrimination against"},{"startTime":2623.02,"endTime":2626.113,"body":"the minority would end."},{"startTime":2627.4,"endTime":2628.84,"body":"Now, in recent years,"},{"startTime":2628.84,"endTime":2633.07,"body":"pressures for Irish unity have"},{"startTime":2628.84,"endTime":2633.07,"body":"increased for two reasons."},{"startTime":2633.07,"endTime":2637.633,"body":"The first is Brexit, the"},{"startTime":2633.07,"endTime":2637.633,"body":"second is demographic change."},{"startTime":2638.56,"endTime":2642.52,"body":"Now, Brexit has made Irish"},{"startTime":2638.56,"endTime":2642.52,"body":"unity appear more plausible"},{"startTime":2642.52,"endTime":2646.45,"body":"because in the Brexit referendum of 2016,"},{"startTime":2646.45,"endTime":2648.61,"body":"Northern Ireland proved more favorable"},{"startTime":2648.61,"endTime":2650.71,"body":"to Britain's continued membership"},{"startTime":2650.71,"endTime":2654.49,"body":"than any part of the United"},{"startTime":2650.71,"endTime":2654.49,"body":"Kingdom, except Scotland."},{"startTime":2654.49,"endTime":2659.49,"body":"56% in Northern Ireland voted"},{"startTime":2654.49,"endTime":2659.49,"body":"to remain and 44% to leave."},{"startTime":2660.64,"endTime":2663.52,"body":"So the majority in Northern"},{"startTime":2660.64,"endTime":2663.52,"body":"Ireland could argue"},{"startTime":2663.52,"endTime":2666.46,"body":"that Northern Ireland was"},{"startTime":2663.52,"endTime":2666.46,"body":"being extruded from the EU"},{"startTime":2666.46,"endTime":2668.29,"body":"against its will."},{"startTime":2668.29,"endTime":2670.66,"body":"So in Northern Ireland, as in Scotland,"},{"startTime":2670.66,"endTime":2672.34,"body":"the Brexit referendum seemed"},{"startTime":2672.34,"endTime":2675.04,"body":"to offer encouragement to nationalists."},{"startTime":2675.04,"endTime":2676.81,"body":"There was clearly a large majority"},{"startTime":2676.81,"endTime":2679.39,"body":"on the island of Ireland"},{"startTime":2676.81,"endTime":2679.39,"body":"for EU membership,"},{"startTime":2679.39,"endTime":2680.95,"body":"since Ireland herself"},{"startTime":2680.95,"endTime":2684.07,"body":"remained an enthusiastic member of the EU."},{"startTime":2684.07,"endTime":2686.59,"body":"And Northern Ireland would"},{"startTime":2684.07,"endTime":2686.59,"body":"find it easier than Scotland"},{"startTime":2686.59,"endTime":2688.36,"body":"to rejoin the EU,"},{"startTime":2688.36,"endTime":2690.85,"body":"since if Irish unity came about,"},{"startTime":2690.85,"endTime":2694.15,"body":"she would be joining with"},{"startTime":2690.85,"endTime":2694.15,"body":"an existing member state,"},{"startTime":2694.15,"endTime":2695.38,"body":"and unlike Scotland,"},{"startTime":2695.38,"endTime":2698.44,"body":"would not have to"},{"startTime":2695.38,"endTime":2698.44,"body":"renegotiate her membership."},{"startTime":2698.44,"endTime":2700.87,"body":"Northern Ireland's"},{"startTime":2698.44,"endTime":2700.87,"body":"position would be analogous"},{"startTime":2700.87,"endTime":2702.49,"body":"to that of East Germany,"},{"startTime":2702.49,"endTime":2706.06,"body":"which also became automatically"},{"startTime":2702.49,"endTime":2706.06,"body":"part of the European Union"},{"startTime":2706.06,"endTime":2709.27,"body":"when in 1990 she joined with West Germany."},{"startTime":2709.27,"endTime":2711.85,"body":"So Northern Ireland is"},{"startTime":2709.27,"endTime":2711.85,"body":"unique in the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":2711.85,"endTime":2714.52,"body":"because it's the only"},{"startTime":2711.85,"endTime":2714.52,"body":"part of the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":2714.52,"endTime":2717.91,"body":"that could rejoin the"},{"startTime":2714.52,"endTime":2717.91,"body":"European Union automatically"},{"startTime":2717.91,"endTime":2720.133,"body":"without needing to renegotiate entry."},{"startTime":2721.33,"endTime":2723.94,"body":"Now, the Ireland and"},{"startTime":2721.33,"endTime":2723.94,"body":"Northern Ireland protocol,"},{"startTime":2723.94,"endTime":2726.58,"body":"which is part of the"},{"startTime":2723.94,"endTime":2726.58,"body":"EU withdrawal agreement"},{"startTime":2726.58,"endTime":2727.96,"body":"between Britain and the EU,"},{"startTime":2727.96,"endTime":2731.62,"body":"negotiated by Boris Johnson in 2020,"},{"startTime":2731.62,"endTime":2734.5,"body":"provides further"},{"startTime":2731.62,"endTime":2734.5,"body":"encouragement to nationalists"},{"startTime":2734.5,"endTime":2736.18,"body":"because under its provisions,"},{"startTime":2736.18,"endTime":2739.63,"body":"Northern Ireland remains"},{"startTime":2736.18,"endTime":2739.63,"body":"in the EU Internal Market"},{"startTime":2739.63,"endTime":2743.68,"body":"and also in effect in"},{"startTime":2739.63,"endTime":2743.68,"body":"the EU Customs Union."},{"startTime":2743.68,"endTime":2748.18,"body":"So the island of Ireland"},{"startTime":2743.68,"endTime":2748.18,"body":"becomes a single economic unit."},{"startTime":2748.18,"endTime":2751.06,"body":"Ties with the rest of the"},{"startTime":2748.18,"endTime":2751.06,"body":"United Kingdom are loosened"},{"startTime":2751.06,"endTime":2753.91,"body":"since there is a regulatory"},{"startTime":2751.06,"endTime":2753.91,"body":"and customs border"},{"startTime":2753.91,"endTime":2755.95,"body":"in the Irish Sea."},{"startTime":2755.95,"endTime":2759.55,"body":"Now, most Unionists in Northern"},{"startTime":2755.95,"endTime":2759.55,"body":"Ireland reject the protocol,"},{"startTime":2759.55,"endTime":2760.903,"body":"but nationalists can argue"},{"startTime":2760.903,"endTime":2764.41,"body":"that the economic unity of"},{"startTime":2760.903,"endTime":2764.41,"body":"Ireland should be accompanied"},{"startTime":2764.41,"endTime":2765.853,"body":"by political unity."},{"startTime":2766.84,"endTime":2769.06,"body":"Now, after the Brexit referendum,"},{"startTime":2769.06,"endTime":2772.577,"body":"one Irish commentator went"},{"startTime":2769.06,"endTime":2772.577,"body":"so far as to suggest that,"},{"startTime":2772.577,"endTime":2774.73,"body":"\"for the first time in my life,"},{"startTime":2774.73,"endTime":2778.21,"body":"the prospect of a united"},{"startTime":2774.73,"endTime":2778.21,"body":"Ireland is not only credible,"},{"startTime":2778.21,"endTime":2780.4,"body":"but inevitable.\""},{"startTime":2780.4,"endTime":2783.46,"body":"Polls in Ireland show"},{"startTime":2780.4,"endTime":2783.46,"body":"a majority for unity,"},{"startTime":2783.46,"endTime":2785.95,"body":"and Unionists need no longer fear"},{"startTime":2785.95,"endTime":2788.02,"body":"that it would mean rule by Rome,"},{"startTime":2788.02,"endTime":2791.02,"body":"since following the exposure"},{"startTime":2788.02,"endTime":2791.02,"body":"of sexual abuse scandals"},{"startTime":2791.02,"endTime":2793.24,"body":"in Ireland by the Catholic clergy,"},{"startTime":2793.24,"endTime":2796.81,"body":"the position of the church"},{"startTime":2793.24,"endTime":2796.81,"body":"has been gravely weakened."},{"startTime":2796.81,"endTime":2798.01,"body":"But according to a poll"},{"startTime":2798.01,"endTime":2802.45,"body":"in the \"Irish Independence\""},{"startTime":2798.01,"endTime":2802.45,"body":"in April, 2011,"},{"startTime":2802.45,"endTime":2805.0,"body":"sorry, 2021, I beg a pardon,"},{"startTime":2805.0,"endTime":2809.17,"body":"the majority favoring unity"},{"startTime":2805.0,"endTime":2809.17,"body":"in the Republic was reduced"},{"startTime":2809.17,"endTime":2813.91,"body":"to 46% were to involve"},{"startTime":2809.17,"endTime":2813.91,"body":"an increase in taxes,"},{"startTime":2813.91,"endTime":2818.89,"body":"and it falls to 13% where"},{"startTime":2813.91,"endTime":2818.89,"body":"Ireland to take on the subsidy"},{"startTime":2818.89,"endTime":2822.61,"body":"by which the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":2818.89,"endTime":2822.61,"body":"supports Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":2822.61,"endTime":2826.45,"body":"And the British would clearly"},{"startTime":2822.61,"endTime":2826.45,"body":"not continue that subsidy."},{"startTime":2826.45,"endTime":2830.98,"body":"As Sir Edward Carson argued"},{"startTime":2826.45,"endTime":2830.98,"body":"in the pre-1914 debates,"},{"startTime":2830.98,"endTime":2834.828,"body":"divorce is not generally"},{"startTime":2830.98,"endTime":2834.828,"body":"accompanied by wedding presence."},{"startTime":2834.828,"endTime":2838.33,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2838.33,"endTime":2840.79,"body":"And it would be a mistake to believe"},{"startTime":2840.79,"endTime":2843.7,"body":"that all of the 56% in Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":2843.7,"endTime":2846.67,"body":"who voted to remain in"},{"startTime":2843.7,"endTime":2846.67,"body":"the Brexit referendum"},{"startTime":2846.67,"endTime":2849.58,"body":"were also supporters of Irish unity."},{"startTime":2849.58,"endTime":2850.54,"body":"It is, in particular,"},{"startTime":2850.54,"endTime":2855.227,"body":"highly unlikely that the 34%"},{"startTime":2850.54,"endTime":2855.227,"body":"of self-designated Unionists"},{"startTime":2855.227,"endTime":2859.12,"body":"who voted to remain"},{"startTime":2855.227,"endTime":2859.12,"body":"were also voting to join"},{"startTime":2859.12,"endTime":2860.37,"body":"with the rest of Ireland."},{"startTime":2861.55,"endTime":2865.03,"body":"But there is a second"},{"startTime":2861.55,"endTime":2865.03,"body":"factor favoring Irish unity,"},{"startTime":2865.03,"endTime":2867.67,"body":"the facts of demographic change,"},{"startTime":2867.67,"endTime":2869.26,"body":"which have led for the first time"},{"startTime":2869.26,"endTime":2872.62,"body":"to a Catholic majority"},{"startTime":2869.26,"endTime":2872.62,"body":"in Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":2872.62,"endTime":2874.93,"body":"Protestants had already"},{"startTime":2872.62,"endTime":2874.93,"body":"lost their cultural"},{"startTime":2874.93,"endTime":2876.76,"body":"and electoral dominance."},{"startTime":2876.76,"endTime":2879.22,"body":"Unionists no longer have a majority either"},{"startTime":2879.22,"endTime":2882.22,"body":"amongst Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":2879.22,"endTime":2882.22,"body":"MPs at Westminster,"},{"startTime":2882.22,"endTime":2884.32,"body":"or in the Northern Ireland assembly"},{"startTime":2884.32,"endTime":2886.42,"body":"where Sinn Fein is the largest party,"},{"startTime":2886.42,"endTime":2888.73,"body":"as indeed it is in Ireland."},{"startTime":2888.73,"endTime":2891.94,"body":"And according to the 2021 census,"},{"startTime":2891.94,"endTime":2893.62,"body":"the Protestants are no longer"},{"startTime":2893.62,"endTime":2896.14,"body":"in a demographic majority either,"},{"startTime":2896.14,"endTime":2900.1,"body":"45.7% of the resident"},{"startTime":2896.14,"endTime":2900.1,"body":"population in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":2900.1,"endTime":2902.44,"body":"the Catholics or brought up as Catholics,"},{"startTime":2902.44,"endTime":2905.8,"body":"compared to 43.8% as Protestants."},{"startTime":2905.8,"endTime":2909.91,"body":"Catholics now outnumber"},{"startTime":2905.8,"endTime":2909.91,"body":"Protestants in an entity designed"},{"startTime":2909.91,"endTime":2912.73,"body":"to secure a permanent Protestant majority."},{"startTime":2912.73,"endTime":2914.95,"body":"So unity could be brought about"},{"startTime":2914.95,"endTime":2916.93,"body":"through the facts of demography."},{"startTime":2916.93,"endTime":2919.99,"body":"But we must be careful in"},{"startTime":2916.93,"endTime":2919.99,"body":"interpreting these figures,"},{"startTime":2919.99,"endTime":2922.39,"body":"for the Catholic population"},{"startTime":2919.99,"endTime":2922.39,"body":"of Northern Ireland is"},{"startTime":2922.39,"endTime":2925.78,"body":"by no means unanimous"},{"startTime":2922.39,"endTime":2925.78,"body":"in its desire for unity."},{"startTime":2925.78,"endTime":2927.01,"body":"And the percentage of votes"},{"startTime":2927.01,"endTime":2929.35,"body":"for the two main nationalist parties,"},{"startTime":2929.35,"endTime":2932.68,"body":"Sinn Fein and the Social"},{"startTime":2929.35,"endTime":2932.68,"body":"Democratic and Labour Party"},{"startTime":2932.68,"endTime":2935.11,"body":"has remained strikingly stable,"},{"startTime":2935.11,"endTime":2938.56,"body":"40% in the 1998 assembly election"},{"startTime":2938.56,"endTime":2942.85,"body":"and slightly less, 38% in 2022."},{"startTime":2942.85,"endTime":2945.76,"body":"Sinn Fein's success has been largely due"},{"startTime":2945.76,"endTime":2948.16,"body":"to switches from the other"},{"startTime":2945.76,"endTime":2948.16,"body":"main Nationalist Party,"},{"startTime":2948.16,"endTime":2950.35,"body":"the Social Democratic and Labour Party,"},{"startTime":2950.35,"endTime":2954.37,"body":"rather than conversions from"},{"startTime":2950.35,"endTime":2954.37,"body":"outside the nationalist camp."},{"startTime":2954.37,"endTime":2958.63,"body":"The Unionist vote by contrast"},{"startTime":2954.37,"endTime":2958.63,"body":"is split between the DUP,"},{"startTime":2958.63,"endTime":2962.32,"body":"the Ulster Unionist Party and"},{"startTime":2958.63,"endTime":2962.32,"body":"traditional Unionist voice,"},{"startTime":2962.32,"endTime":2965.14,"body":"while some Unionists vote"},{"startTime":2962.32,"endTime":2965.14,"body":"for the Alliance Party,"},{"startTime":2965.14,"endTime":2967.06,"body":"which is neutral on the border."},{"startTime":2967.06,"endTime":2969.16,"body":"But perhaps more important than that,"},{"startTime":2969.16,"endTime":2970.39,"body":"the census figures"},{"startTime":2970.39,"endTime":2973.6,"body":"probably mask the growth of secularization"},{"startTime":2973.6,"endTime":2976.6,"body":"in both Protestant and"},{"startTime":2973.6,"endTime":2976.6,"body":"Catholic communities."},{"startTime":2976.6,"endTime":2979.21,"body":"Northern Ireland's constitutional future"},{"startTime":2979.21,"endTime":2980.89,"body":"is more likely to be determined,"},{"startTime":2980.89,"endTime":2984.22,"body":"not by Sinn Fein or the"},{"startTime":2980.89,"endTime":2984.22,"body":"Democratic Unionist Party,"},{"startTime":2984.22,"endTime":2988.0,"body":"but by those in the"},{"startTime":2984.22,"endTime":2988.0,"body":"secularized middle ground."},{"startTime":2988.0,"endTime":2991.45,"body":"And perhaps it is fair to say"},{"startTime":2988.0,"endTime":2991.45,"body":"that neither nationalists,"},{"startTime":2991.45,"endTime":2994.51,"body":"nor Unionists have yet"},{"startTime":2991.45,"endTime":2994.51,"body":"made a convincing case"},{"startTime":2994.51,"endTime":2997.213,"body":"to that middle ground for"},{"startTime":2994.51,"endTime":2997.213,"body":"the option they favor."},{"startTime":2998.38,"endTime":3000.75,"body":"But even if demographic change"},{"startTime":3000.75,"endTime":3002.88,"body":"were to bring about Irish unity,"},{"startTime":3002.88,"endTime":3006.18,"body":"it would be dangerous without"},{"startTime":3002.88,"endTime":3006.18,"body":"strong Unionists consent,"},{"startTime":3006.18,"endTime":3009.54,"body":"since it would otherwise"},{"startTime":3006.18,"endTime":3009.54,"body":"leave a large disaffected"},{"startTime":3009.54,"endTime":3013.8,"body":"and possibly violent Unionist"},{"startTime":3009.54,"endTime":3013.8,"body":"minority in the Republic."},{"startTime":3013.8,"endTime":3016.08,"body":"It is dangerous to assume that Unionists,"},{"startTime":3016.08,"endTime":3017.58,"body":"even in the minority,"},{"startTime":3017.58,"endTime":3021.12,"body":"would accommodate themselves"},{"startTime":3017.58,"endTime":3021.12,"body":"peacefully to a united Ireland,"},{"startTime":3021.12,"endTime":3024.72,"body":"especially an Ireland which"},{"startTime":3021.12,"endTime":3024.72,"body":"Sinn Fein could come to power,"},{"startTime":3024.72,"endTime":3027.0,"body":"as it has in the north."},{"startTime":3027.0,"endTime":3027.87,"body":"And in the past,"},{"startTime":3027.87,"endTime":3030.75,"body":"both British governments"},{"startTime":3027.87,"endTime":3030.75,"body":"and Irish nationalists"},{"startTime":3030.75,"endTime":3033.84,"body":"have underestimated"},{"startTime":3030.75,"endTime":3033.84,"body":"Unionists intransigence,"},{"startTime":3033.84,"endTime":3037.41,"body":"the resistance to home rule before 1914,"},{"startTime":3037.41,"endTime":3041.91,"body":"the resistance to the"},{"startTime":3037.41,"endTime":3041.91,"body":"Sunningdale Agreement after 1973,"},{"startTime":3041.91,"endTime":3043.56,"body":"which provided for power sharing"},{"startTime":3043.56,"endTime":3046.11,"body":"between the two communities"},{"startTime":3043.56,"endTime":3046.11,"body":"in Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3046.11,"endTime":3048.93,"body":"and resistance currently to the protocol"},{"startTime":3048.93,"endTime":3052.74,"body":"which caused rioting in Ulster in 2021,"},{"startTime":3052.74,"endTime":3054.99,"body":"rioting which ended only out of respect"},{"startTime":3054.99,"endTime":3056.763,"body":"when the Duke of Edinburgh died."},{"startTime":3058.05,"endTime":3062.97,"body":"In 1993, the then Taoiseach"},{"startTime":3058.05,"endTime":3062.97,"body":"Albert Reynolds declared"},{"startTime":3062.97,"endTime":3065.94,"body":"that stability and"},{"startTime":3062.97,"endTime":3065.94,"body":"wellbeing will not be found"},{"startTime":3065.94,"endTime":3069.87,"body":"under any political system"},{"startTime":3065.94,"endTime":3069.87,"body":"which is refused allegiance"},{"startTime":3069.87,"endTime":3072.54,"body":"or rejected by a significant minority"},{"startTime":3072.54,"endTime":3074.097,"body":"of those governed by it."},{"startTime":3074.097,"endTime":3076.05,"body":"And that was true of Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3076.05,"endTime":3078.24,"body":"in the years of Unionist dominance."},{"startTime":3078.24,"endTime":3080.64,"body":"It could also be true of a united Ireland,"},{"startTime":3080.64,"endTime":3084.39,"body":"which contained the largest"},{"startTime":3080.64,"endTime":3084.39,"body":"affected Unionist minority,"},{"startTime":3084.39,"endTime":3088.44,"body":"and perhaps calls for Irish"},{"startTime":3084.39,"endTime":3088.44,"body":"unity undermine the prospects"},{"startTime":3088.44,"endTime":3089.85,"body":"for reconciliation"},{"startTime":3089.85,"endTime":3093.24,"body":"between the two communities"},{"startTime":3089.85,"endTime":3093.24,"body":"in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":3093.24,"endTime":3096.3,"body":"a reconciliation which"},{"startTime":3093.24,"endTime":3096.3,"body":"is desperately needed"},{"startTime":3096.3,"endTime":3097.5,"body":"between communities,"},{"startTime":3097.5,"endTime":3100.083,"body":"some of which lead very separate lives."},{"startTime":3101.88,"endTime":3104.37,"body":"Now the fundamental problem in Ireland has"},{"startTime":3104.37,"endTime":3105.99,"body":"in a sense been the same"},{"startTime":3105.99,"endTime":3109.92,"body":"since the nationalist claim"},{"startTime":3105.99,"endTime":3109.92,"body":"was raised in the 19th century."},{"startTime":3109.92,"endTime":3113.49,"body":"It is that there is no way"},{"startTime":3109.92,"endTime":3113.49,"body":"of drawing lines on the map"},{"startTime":3113.49,"endTime":3115.92,"body":"which does not leave at least one group"},{"startTime":3115.92,"endTime":3118.05,"body":"with a nationalist or Unionist"},{"startTime":3118.05,"endTime":3120.45,"body":"as part of a disaffected minority"},{"startTime":3120.45,"endTime":3123.78,"body":"in at least one of the"},{"startTime":3120.45,"endTime":3123.78,"body":"polities so created."},{"startTime":3123.78,"endTime":3127.38,"body":"The problem was blurred when"},{"startTime":3123.78,"endTime":3127.38,"body":"Britain was a member of the EU,"},{"startTime":3127.38,"endTime":3131.58,"body":"since the border in Ireland was"},{"startTime":3127.38,"endTime":3131.58,"body":"becoming of less importance."},{"startTime":3131.58,"endTime":3135.27,"body":"But Brexit has reinstated"},{"startTime":3131.58,"endTime":3135.27,"body":"the importance of that border"},{"startTime":3135.27,"endTime":3137.22,"body":"and reemphasized the conflict"},{"startTime":3137.22,"endTime":3140.223,"body":"between nationalist and"},{"startTime":3137.22,"endTime":3140.223,"body":"Unionist identities."},{"startTime":3141.15,"endTime":3143.28,"body":"What then is the answer?"},{"startTime":3143.28,"endTime":3147.48,"body":"After 1918, it was clear the"},{"startTime":3143.28,"endTime":3147.48,"body":"answer could not be found"},{"startTime":3147.48,"endTime":3149.64,"body":"in forcing Irish nationalists"},{"startTime":3149.64,"endTime":3152.88,"body":"to remain within a polity"},{"startTime":3149.64,"endTime":3152.88,"body":"that they rejected."},{"startTime":3152.88,"endTime":3155.76,"body":"But the Belfast or Good"},{"startTime":3152.88,"endTime":3155.76,"body":"Friday Agreement shows"},{"startTime":3155.76,"endTime":3159.27,"body":"that complete separation"},{"startTime":3155.76,"endTime":3159.27,"body":"is not the answer either,"},{"startTime":3159.27,"endTime":3162.24,"body":"and that the Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3159.27,"endTime":3162.24,"body":"problem can only be resolved"},{"startTime":3162.24,"endTime":3165.09,"body":"through closer relationships"},{"startTime":3162.24,"endTime":3165.09,"body":"between Britain and Ireland."},{"startTime":3166.02,"endTime":3167.28,"body":"In the 19th century,"},{"startTime":3167.28,"endTime":3170.37,"body":"the Irish nationalist"},{"startTime":3167.28,"endTime":3170.37,"body":"Henry Grattan accepted"},{"startTime":3170.37,"endTime":3173.52,"body":"that total separation of"},{"startTime":3170.37,"endTime":3173.52,"body":"Ireland was not the answer,"},{"startTime":3173.52,"endTime":3176.28,"body":"declaring, \"The channel forbids union."},{"startTime":3176.28,"endTime":3179.46,"body":"The ocean forbids separation.\""},{"startTime":3179.46,"endTime":3182.91,"body":"The Belfast or Good Friday"},{"startTime":3179.46,"endTime":3182.91,"body":"Agreement constituted recognition"},{"startTime":3182.91,"endTime":3186.27,"body":"by both Britain and Ireland"},{"startTime":3182.91,"endTime":3186.27,"body":"that the manifold links"},{"startTime":3186.27,"endTime":3189.24,"body":"between the two countries"},{"startTime":3186.27,"endTime":3189.24,"body":"could not be contained"},{"startTime":3189.24,"endTime":3190.53,"body":"within a framework"},{"startTime":3190.53,"endTime":3192.9,"body":"which would make them as"},{"startTime":3190.53,"endTime":3192.9,"body":"foreign to each other as,"},{"startTime":3192.9,"endTime":3195.72,"body":"for example, Chile and Nigeria."},{"startTime":3195.72,"endTime":3198.06,"body":"In the 19th century, Gladstone,"},{"startTime":3198.06,"endTime":3201.51,"body":"the great liberal prime"},{"startTime":3198.06,"endTime":3201.51,"body":"minister also appreciated"},{"startTime":3201.51,"endTime":3203.37,"body":"that neither total separation,"},{"startTime":3203.37,"endTime":3205.59,"body":"nor partition could have themselves"},{"startTime":3205.59,"endTime":3207.51,"body":"resolved the Irish problem."},{"startTime":3207.51,"endTime":3210.36,"body":"Instead, a permanent"},{"startTime":3207.51,"endTime":3210.36,"body":"solution would require"},{"startTime":3210.36,"endTime":3213.84,"body":"both the recognition of"},{"startTime":3210.36,"endTime":3213.84,"body":"separate national identities,"},{"startTime":3213.84,"endTime":3215.73,"body":"but also their transcendence"},{"startTime":3215.73,"endTime":3219.18,"body":"in a wider framework through institutions"},{"startTime":3219.18,"endTime":3222.15,"body":"which while expressing"},{"startTime":3219.18,"endTime":3222.15,"body":"separate identities,"},{"startTime":3222.15,"endTime":3226.32,"body":"also provided for expression"},{"startTime":3222.15,"endTime":3226.32,"body":"of the ultimate interconnection"},{"startTime":3226.32,"endTime":3229.71,"body":"between all the peoples"},{"startTime":3226.32,"endTime":3229.71,"body":"living in these islands."},{"startTime":3229.71,"endTime":3233.55,"body":"That permanent solution"},{"startTime":3229.71,"endTime":3233.55,"body":"has still to be achieved."},{"startTime":3233.55,"endTime":3234.516,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3234.516,"endTime":3237.516,"body":"(audience applauds)"},{"startTime":3240.39,"endTime":3241.83,"body":"- [Spectator 1] Given"},{"startTime":3240.39,"endTime":3241.83,"body":"the population changes"},{"startTime":3241.83,"endTime":3242.73,"body":"in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":3242.73,"endTime":3247.73,"body":"is a referendum on"},{"startTime":3242.73,"endTime":3247.73,"body":"independence now inevitable?"},{"startTime":3248.43,"endTime":3250.413,"body":"And if so, when might it happen?"},{"startTime":3251.64,"endTime":3252.473,"body":"- Well, thank you."},{"startTime":3252.473,"endTime":3253.643,"body":"As I said, I don't think it is inevitable."},{"startTime":3253.643,"endTime":3255.81,"body":"I don't think anything's inevitable."},{"startTime":3255.81,"endTime":3257.76,"body":"I think someone once said"},{"startTime":3255.81,"endTime":3257.76,"body":"nothing's inevitable,"},{"startTime":3257.76,"endTime":3259.47,"body":"except death and taxes."},{"startTime":3259.47,"endTime":3262.5,"body":"But I don't think it is inevitable."},{"startTime":3262.5,"endTime":3265.5,"body":"And I don't know to what extent the whole"},{"startTime":3265.5,"endTime":3269.853,"body":"of the Catholic population"},{"startTime":3265.5,"endTime":3269.853,"body":"favors Irish unity."},{"startTime":3271.14,"endTime":3273.3,"body":"There's no pressure, I"},{"startTime":3271.14,"endTime":3273.3,"body":"think, at the moment,"},{"startTime":3273.3,"endTime":3275.07,"body":"even from the Sinn Fein Party,"},{"startTime":3275.07,"endTime":3279.21,"body":"for an immediate referendum"},{"startTime":3275.07,"endTime":3279.21,"body":"on that question."},{"startTime":3279.21,"endTime":3282.24,"body":"I think there's no doubt that Brexit"},{"startTime":3282.24,"endTime":3283.68,"body":"and the demographic changes"},{"startTime":3283.68,"endTime":3286.59,"body":"have made Irish unity more likely."},{"startTime":3286.59,"endTime":3290.97,"body":"But I don't think it's"},{"startTime":3286.59,"endTime":3290.97,"body":"necessarily inevitable."},{"startTime":3290.97,"endTime":3292.923,"body":"The nationalists say,"},{"startTime":3294.09,"endTime":3295.473,"body":"Sinn Feins certainly say that they,"},{"startTime":3295.473,"endTime":3298.26,"body":"that Unionist identity could be preserved"},{"startTime":3298.26,"endTime":3299.61,"body":"in a united Ireland,"},{"startTime":3299.61,"endTime":3301.71,"body":"but that isn't easy in a country"},{"startTime":3301.71,"endTime":3304.65,"body":"which is a republic"},{"startTime":3301.71,"endTime":3304.65,"body":"outside the Commonwealth"},{"startTime":3304.65,"endTime":3307.71,"body":"because for many Unionists"},{"startTime":3304.65,"endTime":3307.71,"body":"the monarch is very important."},{"startTime":3307.71,"endTime":3310.2,"body":"And I think perhaps the death of the Queen"},{"startTime":3310.2,"endTime":3313.5,"body":"and the accession of the"},{"startTime":3310.2,"endTime":3313.5,"body":"new king has emphasized"},{"startTime":3313.5,"endTime":3315.33,"body":"that point amongst unions."},{"startTime":3315.33,"endTime":3318.84,"body":"So I think that might be a"},{"startTime":3315.33,"endTime":3318.84,"body":"bit of a stumbling block,"},{"startTime":3318.84,"endTime":3321.15,"body":"though I don't think it's inevitable."},{"startTime":3321.15,"endTime":3322.59,"body":"- Do you think as well..."},{"startTime":3322.59,"endTime":3325.23,"body":"I mean, some of my Irish friends"},{"startTime":3322.59,"endTime":3325.23,"body":"always feel that there's a,"},{"startTime":3325.23,"endTime":3327.45,"body":"we don't want to inherit"},{"startTime":3325.23,"endTime":3327.45,"body":"the troublesome minority"},{"startTime":3327.45,"endTime":3328.38,"body":"in the north."},{"startTime":3328.38,"endTime":3329.308,"body":"Do you think that-"},{"startTime":3329.308,"endTime":3331.98,"body":"- Well, in the 1970s when he"},{"startTime":3329.308,"endTime":3331.98,"body":"was leader of the opposition,"},{"startTime":3331.98,"endTime":3333.93,"body":"Harold Wilson, the leader"},{"startTime":3331.98,"endTime":3333.93,"body":"of the Labour Party,"},{"startTime":3333.93,"endTime":3336.93,"body":"said to Jack Lynch the Taoiseach"},{"startTime":3336.93,"endTime":3340.428,"body":"that Britain was intending"},{"startTime":3336.93,"endTime":3340.428,"body":"to withdraw her troops"},{"startTime":3340.428,"endTime":3343.023,"body":"from Northern Ireland if there was peace."},{"startTime":3345.12,"endTime":3348.45,"body":"It would agreed to the"},{"startTime":3345.12,"endTime":3348.45,"body":"secession of Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3348.45,"endTime":3349.74,"body":"in 15 years."},{"startTime":3349.74,"endTime":3351.897,"body":"And Jack Lynch was rather shocked by that"},{"startTime":3351.897,"endTime":3353.01,"body":"and a bit frightened."},{"startTime":3353.01,"endTime":3355.38,"body":"I think he wasn't eager at that time."},{"startTime":3355.38,"endTime":3356.213,"body":"Well, Northern Ireland, of course,"},{"startTime":3356.213,"endTime":3357.873,"body":"then was very violent indeed."},{"startTime":3359.46,"endTime":3362.61,"body":"- [Spectator 2] Why is the"},{"startTime":3359.46,"endTime":3362.61,"body":"Northern Ireland protocols"},{"startTime":3362.61,"endTime":3364.473,"body":"proving so difficult to resolve?"},{"startTime":3366.48,"endTime":3369.81,"body":"- Well, it raises very"},{"startTime":3366.48,"endTime":3369.81,"body":"difficult constitutional issues"},{"startTime":3369.81,"endTime":3374.81,"body":"because Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3369.81,"endTime":3374.81,"body":"from some points of view,"},{"startTime":3374.94,"endTime":3377.34,"body":"is not part of the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":3377.34,"endTime":3378.63,"body":"in terms of the enactment of law."},{"startTime":3378.63,"endTime":3380.43,"body":"For instance, it has..."},{"startTime":3380.43,"endTime":3383.07,"body":"Its VAT rules are those of the EU,"},{"startTime":3383.07,"endTime":3385.2,"body":"so that when Rishi Sunak"},{"startTime":3385.2,"endTime":3390.2,"body":"as chancellor passed a"},{"startTime":3385.2,"endTime":3390.2,"body":"measure exempting Britain,"},{"startTime":3391.65,"endTime":3393.96,"body":"reducing VAT on various energy matters,"},{"startTime":3393.96,"endTime":3394.793,"body":"it did not apply."},{"startTime":3394.793,"endTime":3395.91,"body":"I think I'm right."},{"startTime":3395.91,"endTime":3397.02,"body":"Please correct me if I'm not."},{"startTime":3397.02,"endTime":3399.72,"body":"It did not apply in Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":3399.72,"endTime":3403.5,"body":"And Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3399.72,"endTime":3403.5,"body":"Internal Market is subject"},{"startTime":3403.5,"endTime":3405.99,"body":"to the rules of the European Union"},{"startTime":3405.99,"endTime":3408.18,"body":"on which it is not represented."},{"startTime":3408.18,"endTime":3412.8,"body":"So Northern Ireland has"},{"startTime":3408.18,"endTime":3412.8,"body":"the problem of being taxed"},{"startTime":3412.8,"endTime":3414.15,"body":"without representation."},{"startTime":3414.15,"endTime":3414.983,"body":"That's the issue"},{"startTime":3414.983,"endTime":3417.57,"body":"which led to the breakup"},{"startTime":3414.983,"endTime":3417.57,"body":"of the American colonies."},{"startTime":3417.57,"endTime":3419.01,"body":"And furthermore,"},{"startTime":3419.01,"endTime":3422.58,"body":"Internal Market rules"},{"startTime":3419.01,"endTime":3422.58,"body":"where the dispute's decided"},{"startTime":3422.58,"endTime":3424.86,"body":"by the European Court of Justice,"},{"startTime":3424.86,"endTime":3426.81,"body":"which is a foreign court"},{"startTime":3426.81,"endTime":3429.0,"body":"from the point of view"},{"startTime":3426.81,"endTime":3429.0,"body":"of the United Kingdom now"},{"startTime":3429.0,"endTime":3431.37,"body":"because we are outside the European Union."},{"startTime":3431.37,"endTime":3434.64,"body":"So it does raise very"},{"startTime":3431.37,"endTime":3434.64,"body":"serious constitutional issues"},{"startTime":3434.64,"endTime":3435.473,"body":"for Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":3435.473,"endTime":3437.34,"body":"There are also arguably economic problems,"},{"startTime":3437.34,"endTime":3439.98,"body":"though you may say Northern"},{"startTime":3437.34,"endTime":3439.98,"body":"Ireland's got the best,"},{"startTime":3439.98,"endTime":3443.07,"body":"best of all world by being"},{"startTime":3439.98,"endTime":3443.07,"body":"in the EU Internal Market."},{"startTime":3443.07,"endTime":3444.69,"body":"But I think the Unionists consider"},{"startTime":3444.69,"endTime":3447.48,"body":"it raises constitutional issues,"},{"startTime":3447.48,"endTime":3450.78,"body":"which threaten their position"},{"startTime":3447.48,"endTime":3450.78,"body":"in the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":3450.78,"endTime":3453.57,"body":"with a regulatory and customs"},{"startTime":3450.78,"endTime":3453.57,"body":"border in the Irish Sea."},{"startTime":3453.57,"endTime":3457.29,"body":"And you have to ask the"},{"startTime":3453.57,"endTime":3457.29,"body":"other members of the EU"},{"startTime":3457.29,"endTime":3458.64,"body":"whether the French would agree"},{"startTime":3458.64,"endTime":3460.86,"body":"to a customs and regulatory border"},{"startTime":3460.86,"endTime":3462.87,"body":"cutting Alsace-Lorraine off from France"},{"startTime":3462.87,"endTime":3465.33,"body":"or the Germans cutting"},{"startTime":3462.87,"endTime":3465.33,"body":"Bavaria off from Germany."},{"startTime":3465.33,"endTime":3469.11,"body":"And there's an irony in it really,"},{"startTime":3469.11,"endTime":3472.17,"body":"because traditionally Irish"},{"startTime":3469.11,"endTime":3472.17,"body":"nationalists were opposed"},{"startTime":3472.17,"endTime":3473.97,"body":"to the partition of Ireland,"},{"startTime":3473.97,"endTime":3475.41,"body":"but they're not necessarily opposed"},{"startTime":3475.41,"endTime":3477.15,"body":"to the partition of the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":3477.15,"endTime":3479.46,"body":"So I think there are"},{"startTime":3477.15,"endTime":3479.46,"body":"very, very serious issues"},{"startTime":3479.46,"endTime":3482.34,"body":"which need somehow to be resolved."},{"startTime":3482.34,"endTime":3485.04,"body":"- You've emphasized several"},{"startTime":3482.34,"endTime":3485.04,"body":"times the importance"},{"startTime":3485.04,"endTime":3489.06,"body":"or the impact of Brexit"},{"startTime":3485.04,"endTime":3489.06,"body":"on some of these issues,"},{"startTime":3489.06,"endTime":3494.06,"body":"the way in which the British"},{"startTime":3489.06,"endTime":3494.06,"body":"government at the time relied"},{"startTime":3494.49,"endTime":3497.373,"body":"upon the tiny group of"},{"startTime":3494.49,"endTime":3497.373,"body":"people called the DUP."},{"startTime":3498.51,"endTime":3502.35,"body":"That must have had a"},{"startTime":3498.51,"endTime":3502.35,"body":"disproportionate political impact"},{"startTime":3502.35,"endTime":3505.2,"body":"on the consequences for"},{"startTime":3502.35,"endTime":3505.2,"body":"both Ireland and the UK."},{"startTime":3505.2,"endTime":3506.033,"body":"How do you feel about that?"},{"startTime":3506.033,"endTime":3508.14,"body":"- Well, that was after"},{"startTime":3506.033,"endTime":3508.14,"body":"Brexit occurred of course."},{"startTime":3508.14,"endTime":3510.87,"body":"And one of the problems that"},{"startTime":3508.14,"endTime":3510.87,"body":"Theresa May had was that..."},{"startTime":3510.87,"endTime":3515.43,"body":"I think the main reasons for"},{"startTime":3510.87,"endTime":3515.43,"body":"rejection of her proposals"},{"startTime":3515.43,"endTime":3516.42,"body":"with regard to Brexit,"},{"startTime":3516.42,"endTime":3519.63,"body":"which would've kept Britain"},{"startTime":3516.42,"endTime":3519.63,"body":"in the EU Customs Union,"},{"startTime":3519.63,"endTime":3521.733,"body":"was the question of the backstop,"},{"startTime":3522.57,"endTime":3524.46,"body":"which MPs would not accept."},{"startTime":3524.46,"endTime":3526.56,"body":"It seemed to give the"},{"startTime":3524.46,"endTime":3526.56,"body":"Irish government a veto"},{"startTime":3526.56,"endTime":3529.68,"body":"over certain matters"},{"startTime":3526.56,"endTime":3529.68,"body":"relating to Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":3529.68,"endTime":3531.6,"body":"And I think without that,"},{"startTime":3531.6,"endTime":3533.34,"body":"Theresa May's deal would've got through."},{"startTime":3533.34,"endTime":3536.22,"body":"Now Boris Johnson signed a different deal,"},{"startTime":3536.22,"endTime":3539.67,"body":"which makes Northern Ireland economically"},{"startTime":3539.67,"endTime":3542.19,"body":"in effect separate from the"},{"startTime":3539.67,"endTime":3542.19,"body":"rest of the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":3542.19,"endTime":3545.7,"body":"It's ironic that a strong Unionist leader"},{"startTime":3545.7,"endTime":3547.38,"body":"signed that agreement."},{"startTime":3547.38,"endTime":3550.524,"body":"Whether he read it isn't"},{"startTime":3547.38,"endTime":3550.524,"body":"clear, but he signed it."},{"startTime":3550.524,"endTime":3551.607,"body":"He signed it."},{"startTime":3551.607,"endTime":3554.043,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":3554.043,"endTime":3556.8,"body":"But both John Major and Tony Blair,"},{"startTime":3556.8,"endTime":3558.33,"body":"who were antagonists politically,"},{"startTime":3558.33,"endTime":3561.787,"body":"spoke in Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3558.33,"endTime":3561.787,"body":"before the referendum and said,"},{"startTime":3561.787,"endTime":3564.36,"body":"\"If Britain leaves the EU,"},{"startTime":3564.36,"endTime":3567.87,"body":"this will make the Irish problem"},{"startTime":3564.36,"endTime":3567.87,"body":"more difficult to resolve.\""},{"startTime":3567.87,"endTime":3569.4,"body":"Now in a sense, Northern Ireland listened"},{"startTime":3569.4,"endTime":3571.05,"body":"'cause it voted strongly to remain in,"},{"startTime":3571.05,"endTime":3574.62,"body":"but it was outvoted by"},{"startTime":3571.05,"endTime":3574.62,"body":"the rest of the country."},{"startTime":3574.62,"endTime":3576.24,"body":"And Northern Ireland, Scotland,"},{"startTime":3576.24,"endTime":3578.88,"body":"and London were the only three areas"},{"startTime":3578.88,"endTime":3581.07,"body":"which voted to remain."},{"startTime":3581.07,"endTime":3583.02,"body":"But it's fair to say"},{"startTime":3581.07,"endTime":3583.02,"body":"something not often noticed."},{"startTime":3583.02,"endTime":3586.83,"body":"Their turnout rates"},{"startTime":3583.02,"endTime":3586.83,"body":"were amongst the lowest."},{"startTime":3586.83,"endTime":3588.51,"body":"Three of the four lowest turnout rates"},{"startTime":3588.51,"endTime":3591.15,"body":"were in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":3588.51,"endTime":3591.15,"body":"Scotland, and London."},{"startTime":3591.15,"endTime":3593.31,"body":"If turnout rates had been higher,"},{"startTime":3593.31,"endTime":3595.16,"body":"the result might have been different."},{"startTime":3596.34,"endTime":3597.18,"body":"- [Spectator 3] Thank you so much"},{"startTime":3597.18,"endTime":3601.44,"body":"for a fantastic overview"},{"startTime":3597.18,"endTime":3601.44,"body":"and lecture, professor."},{"startTime":3601.44,"endTime":3603.96,"body":"One thing that I was going to ask was,"},{"startTime":3603.96,"endTime":3605.4,"body":"on the subject of referendum,"},{"startTime":3605.4,"endTime":3607.38,"body":"is that they held a referendum,"},{"startTime":3607.38,"endTime":3610.23,"body":"I think in 1970 or 1971 about,"},{"startTime":3610.23,"endTime":3612.66,"body":"for reunification in Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":3612.66,"endTime":3615.03,"body":"I was quite surprised"},{"startTime":3612.66,"endTime":3615.03,"body":"to see that when I..."},{"startTime":3615.03,"endTime":3616.02,"body":"- Yeah, there was a border poll."},{"startTime":3616.02,"endTime":3618.03,"body":"I think it was 1973."},{"startTime":3618.03,"endTime":3622.77,"body":"But it wasn't helpful because"},{"startTime":3618.03,"endTime":3622.77,"body":"the minority population,"},{"startTime":3622.77,"endTime":3624.66,"body":"the Catholic population did not vote."},{"startTime":3624.66,"endTime":3626.07,"body":"So it gave a huge majority"},{"startTime":3626.07,"endTime":3628.59,"body":"for staying in the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":3628.59,"endTime":3630.48,"body":"But the reason for that,"},{"startTime":3630.48,"endTime":3632.22,"body":"there was a reason for"},{"startTime":3630.48,"endTime":3632.22,"body":"them deciding not to vote"},{"startTime":3632.22,"endTime":3634.41,"body":"because it was obvious"},{"startTime":3632.22,"endTime":3634.41,"body":"there was a majority staying"},{"startTime":3634.41,"endTime":3636.36,"body":"in the United Kingdom because that,"},{"startTime":3636.36,"endTime":3637.2,"body":"that was the basis"},{"startTime":3637.2,"endTime":3639.48,"body":"on which Northern"},{"startTime":3637.2,"endTime":3639.48,"body":"Ireland had been created,"},{"startTime":3639.48,"endTime":3641.61,"body":"that it had a Protestant majority."},{"startTime":3641.61,"endTime":3642.443,"body":"But now, as I say,"},{"startTime":3642.443,"endTime":3643.86,"body":"it doesn't have a Protestant majority."},{"startTime":3643.86,"endTime":3644.973,"body":"That's changed."},{"startTime":3645.99,"endTime":3649.26,"body":"So you may argue that"},{"startTime":3645.99,"endTime":3649.26,"body":"basis has been undermined."},{"startTime":3649.26,"endTime":3650.73,"body":"But there certainly was a border poll,"},{"startTime":3650.73,"endTime":3653.43,"body":"the first local referendum."},{"startTime":3653.43,"endTime":3656.43,"body":"That in a way did prove"},{"startTime":3653.43,"endTime":3656.43,"body":"an important precedent"},{"startTime":3656.43,"endTime":3657.54,"body":"because it proved a precedent"},{"startTime":3657.54,"endTime":3659.82,"body":"for our first European referendum,"},{"startTime":3659.82,"endTime":3661.62,"body":"which was in 1975,"},{"startTime":3661.62,"endTime":3663.63,"body":"which yielded a two-one"},{"startTime":3661.62,"endTime":3663.63,"body":"majority of staying"},{"startTime":3663.63,"endTime":3665.79,"body":"in the European community."},{"startTime":3665.79,"endTime":3667.62,"body":"But without the '73 border pole,"},{"startTime":3667.62,"endTime":3669.39,"body":"there might not have been as much pressure"},{"startTime":3669.39,"endTime":3670.35,"body":"in the rest of the country"},{"startTime":3670.35,"endTime":3672.39,"body":"for a referendum on the Common Market,"},{"startTime":3672.39,"endTime":3674.973,"body":"as the European Union then was."},{"startTime":3676.827,"endTime":3681.827,"body":"But the maligned fate which"},{"startTime":3676.827,"endTime":3681.827,"body":"infects the Irish problem,"},{"startTime":3684.78,"endTime":3686.82,"body":"I'd say particularly in 1914"},{"startTime":3686.82,"endTime":3690.24,"body":"when I think it was very"},{"startTime":3686.82,"endTime":3690.24,"body":"near to a settlement..."},{"startTime":3690.24,"endTime":3693.15,"body":"And also you could argue"},{"startTime":3690.24,"endTime":3693.15,"body":"from this point of view,"},{"startTime":3693.15,"endTime":3696.6,"body":"Brexit is a maligned fate"},{"startTime":3693.15,"endTime":3696.6,"body":"that I think the lines"},{"startTime":3696.6,"endTime":3699.93,"body":"between being British and Irish"},{"startTime":3696.6,"endTime":3699.93,"body":"were becoming very blurred"},{"startTime":3699.93,"endTime":3702.12,"body":"by the European Union."},{"startTime":3702.12,"endTime":3704.49,"body":"And just as it had achieved"},{"startTime":3702.12,"endTime":3704.49,"body":"a reconciliation originally"},{"startTime":3704.49,"endTime":3705.66,"body":"between France and Germany,"},{"startTime":3705.66,"endTime":3709.617,"body":"it might have helped do that"},{"startTime":3705.66,"endTime":3709.617,"body":"between Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":3709.617,"endTime":3710.67,"body":"and the rest of Ireland."},{"startTime":3710.67,"endTime":3712.8,"body":"But Brexit, I mean,"},{"startTime":3712.8,"endTime":3714.33,"body":"there maybe other good reasons for Brexit,"},{"startTime":3714.33,"endTime":3715.44,"body":"I'm not arguing against that."},{"startTime":3715.44,"endTime":3718.08,"body":"But Brexit did make life"},{"startTime":3715.44,"endTime":3718.08,"body":"more difficult, I think,"},{"startTime":3718.08,"endTime":3719.33,"body":"on the island of Ireland."},{"startTime":3720.18,"endTime":3721.14,"body":"- Thank you very much indeed."},{"startTime":3721.14,"endTime":3723.63,"body":"I think we should invite"},{"startTime":3721.14,"endTime":3723.63,"body":"you back in a hundred years"},{"startTime":3723.63,"endTime":3725.967,"body":"to have another go to"},{"startTime":3723.63,"endTime":3725.967,"body":"answering the question."},{"startTime":3725.967,"endTime":3728.1,"body":"And in the meantime,"},{"startTime":3728.1,"endTime":3730.65,"body":"may I invite you to thank"},{"startTime":3728.1,"endTime":3730.65,"body":"Professor Bogdanor once more"},{"startTime":3730.65,"endTime":3732.492,"body":"for a wonderful lecture."},{"startTime":3732.492,"endTime":3734.279,"body":"- Thank you, thank you."},{"startTime":3734.279,"endTime":3735.668,"body":"(audience applauds)"}]}