{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.0,"endTime":5.0,"body":"(dramatic rumbling)"},{"startTime":0.0,"endTime":5.0,"body":"(dramatic whooshing)"},{"startTime":5.31,"endTime":10.243,"body":"- I'm going to talk about"},{"startTime":5.31,"endTime":10.243,"body":"populism, Aristotle, and hope,"},{"startTime":12.086,"endTime":17.086,"body":"and I want to begin by reflecting"},{"startTime":12.086,"endTime":17.086,"body":"on a very peculiar change"},{"startTime":18.36,"endTime":20.924,"body":"in our civilization and our culture."},{"startTime":20.924,"endTime":24.235,"body":"We are sitting here in a room"},{"startTime":24.235,"endTime":29.235,"body":"in which is embodied many of the fantasies"},{"startTime":29.37,"endTime":31.71,"body":"of a previous era."},{"startTime":31.71,"endTime":34.195,"body":"I don't want you to turn around"},{"startTime":31.71,"endTime":34.195,"body":"too much while I'm talking,"},{"startTime":34.195,"endTime":36.0,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":34.195,"endTime":36.0,"body":"but you can see behind you"},{"startTime":36.0,"endTime":39.18,"body":"tapestries of knights in"},{"startTime":36.0,"endTime":39.18,"body":"shining armor galloping"},{"startTime":39.18,"endTime":41.55,"body":"in a tourney on London Bridge."},{"startTime":41.55,"endTime":44.01,"body":"You can see William the"},{"startTime":41.55,"endTime":44.01,"body":"Conqueror's representative"},{"startTime":44.01,"endTime":46.56,"body":"turning up to meet the City of London."},{"startTime":46.56,"endTime":48.51,"body":"And over my left shoulder"},{"startTime":46.56,"endTime":48.51,"body":"in the stained glass,"},{"startTime":48.51,"endTime":53.51,"body":"you'll see pictures of earnest clerics."},{"startTime":54.0,"endTime":58.74,"body":"And everywhere around us, in"},{"startTime":54.0,"endTime":58.74,"body":"the stones, in the heraldry,"},{"startTime":58.74,"endTime":61.71,"body":"is a reminder of an age that's past,"},{"startTime":61.71,"endTime":66.39,"body":"an age which was defined"},{"startTime":61.71,"endTime":66.39,"body":"by a sense of religion"},{"startTime":66.39,"endTime":69.27,"body":"and spirituality at the very heart"},{"startTime":69.27,"endTime":71.405,"body":"of our political construct,"},{"startTime":71.405,"endTime":75.78,"body":"defined by rigid"},{"startTime":71.405,"endTime":75.78,"body":"divisions between classes,"},{"startTime":75.78,"endTime":78.725,"body":"the domination of the"},{"startTime":75.78,"endTime":78.725,"body":"lords and the bishops"},{"startTime":78.725,"endTime":80.223,"body":"over our society."},{"startTime":81.33,"endTime":85.68,"body":"And that world gradually evaporated"},{"startTime":85.68,"endTime":88.924,"body":"and was replaced over time,"},{"startTime":85.68,"endTime":88.924,"body":"over many hundreds of years,"},{"startTime":88.924,"endTime":93.61,"body":"by the beginning of a"},{"startTime":88.924,"endTime":93.61,"body":"liberal democratic consensus"},{"startTime":94.98,"endTime":98.195,"body":"whose fundamental elements by the 1990s"},{"startTime":98.195,"endTime":102.633,"body":"had become the idea of liberal democracy"},{"startTime":102.633,"endTime":104.766,"body":"and the free market."},{"startTime":104.766,"endTime":107.28,"body":"But this evolution, this change,"},{"startTime":107.28,"endTime":109.77,"body":"was a matter of many,"},{"startTime":107.28,"endTime":109.77,"body":"many hundreds of years."},{"startTime":109.77,"endTime":114.25,"body":"In fact, in a sense, this"},{"startTime":109.77,"endTime":114.25,"body":"whole panoply of buildings"},{"startTime":115.2,"endTime":119.13,"body":"is like an ancient oak tree"},{"startTime":115.2,"endTime":119.13,"body":"whose bark somehow remains"},{"startTime":119.13,"endTime":122.07,"body":"while the center has been hollowed out."},{"startTime":122.07,"endTime":124.542,"body":"In some ways, in fact, the"},{"startTime":122.07,"endTime":124.542,"body":"entire British Constitution"},{"startTime":124.542,"endTime":125.91,"body":"is a little bit like that."},{"startTime":125.91,"endTime":127.89,"body":"You only have to go and"},{"startTime":125.91,"endTime":127.89,"body":"peer at the House of Lords,"},{"startTime":127.89,"endTime":129.3,"body":"see the bishops in the House of Lords"},{"startTime":129.3,"endTime":131.58,"body":"to get a bit of a sense of that."},{"startTime":131.58,"endTime":136.017,"body":"But what is so startling"},{"startTime":131.58,"endTime":136.017,"body":"is how rapid the change"},{"startTime":136.017,"endTime":141.017,"body":"has been from the consensus"},{"startTime":136.017,"endTime":141.017,"body":"of the 1990s to today,"},{"startTime":142.02,"endTime":144.24,"body":"how something that"},{"startTime":142.02,"endTime":144.24,"body":"previously took many hundreds"},{"startTime":144.24,"endTime":147.813,"body":"of years has happened"},{"startTime":144.24,"endTime":147.813,"body":"in a matter of decades."},{"startTime":148.8,"endTime":152.67,"body":"And I want to quickly run you"},{"startTime":148.8,"endTime":152.67,"body":"through some of that change"},{"startTime":152.67,"endTime":155.34,"body":"and examine some of the"},{"startTime":152.67,"endTime":155.34,"body":"paradoxes and contradictions"},{"startTime":155.34,"endTime":157.38,"body":"which we've lived through."},{"startTime":157.38,"endTime":160.67,"body":"Let me start with 1989,"},{"startTime":157.38,"endTime":160.67,"body":"a very obvious moment,"},{"startTime":160.67,"endTime":162.941,"body":"the fall of the Berlin Wall,"},{"startTime":162.941,"endTime":166.606,"body":"and the beginning of what"},{"startTime":162.941,"endTime":166.606,"body":"appeared to be the explosion"},{"startTime":166.606,"endTime":171.606,"body":"of an age of liberal optimism,"},{"startTime":166.606,"endTime":171.606,"body":"an age dominated by the U.S."},{"startTime":172.536,"endTime":174.063,"body":"and its allies."},{"startTime":175.02,"endTime":177.75,"body":"Going into the end of the 1980s,"},{"startTime":177.75,"endTime":179.46,"body":"we are entering a world"},{"startTime":179.46,"endTime":183.003,"body":"in which the United States"},{"startTime":179.46,"endTime":183.003,"body":"stands unchallenged."},{"startTime":183.87,"endTime":188.633,"body":"And over the years between 1989, 2004,"},{"startTime":188.633,"endTime":192.415,"body":"the number of democracies"},{"startTime":188.633,"endTime":192.415,"body":"in the world doubles,"},{"startTime":192.415,"endTime":194.55,"body":"not just in Central and Eastern Europe,"},{"startTime":194.55,"endTime":197.67,"body":"we're familiar with what"},{"startTime":194.55,"endTime":197.67,"body":"happened in Hungary or Slovakia,"},{"startTime":197.67,"endTime":202.02,"body":"but in Latin America, in Asia,"},{"startTime":202.02,"endTime":205.83,"body":"and even in some parts of the Middle East."},{"startTime":205.83,"endTime":210.83,"body":"And as this begins to change,"},{"startTime":205.83,"endTime":210.83,"body":"we see other developments."},{"startTime":212.04,"endTime":216.09,"body":"We see the developments of peace."},{"startTime":216.09,"endTime":217.29,"body":"Every year from then onwards,"},{"startTime":217.29,"endTime":219.57,"body":"as Steven Pinker likes to celebrate,"},{"startTime":219.57,"endTime":222.27,"body":"the world appears to become more peaceful."},{"startTime":222.27,"endTime":225.15,"body":"Every year there are fewer"},{"startTime":222.27,"endTime":225.15,"body":"civilians killed in conflict."},{"startTime":225.15,"endTime":228.36,"body":"There are fewer internally"},{"startTime":225.15,"endTime":228.36,"body":"displaced people."},{"startTime":228.36,"endTime":230.1,"body":"There are fewer refugees."},{"startTime":230.1,"endTime":232.02,"body":"And the world becomes more prosperous,"},{"startTime":232.02,"endTime":236.85,"body":"so much so that the world ends up on track"},{"startTime":236.85,"endTime":241.833,"body":"to meet its goal of halving"},{"startTime":236.85,"endTime":241.833,"body":"global poverty four years early."},{"startTime":242.76,"endTime":244.776,"body":"Hundreds of millions of people"},{"startTime":244.776,"endTime":248.764,"body":"are dragged out of extreme"},{"startTime":244.776,"endTime":248.764,"body":"poverty in this period."},{"startTime":248.764,"endTime":252.57,"body":"And this period,"},{"startTime":248.764,"endTime":252.57,"body":"characterized, I would say,"},{"startTime":252.57,"endTime":254.31,"body":"probably by five things,"},{"startTime":254.31,"endTime":257.43,"body":"and I want you to try to keep"},{"startTime":254.31,"endTime":257.43,"body":"these five things in your head"},{"startTime":257.43,"endTime":259.953,"body":"as I plod my way through my lecture."},{"startTime":261.12,"endTime":265.32,"body":"The first of those is"},{"startTime":261.12,"endTime":265.32,"body":"the notion of consensus."},{"startTime":265.32,"endTime":267.45,"body":"This is an era in the 1990s,"},{"startTime":267.45,"endTime":270.48,"body":"an era of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair,"},{"startTime":270.48,"endTime":275.48,"body":"where the conventional"},{"startTime":270.48,"endTime":275.48,"body":"wisdom is that politics,"},{"startTime":275.7,"endTime":279.18,"body":"democratic elections, are"},{"startTime":275.7,"endTime":279.18,"body":"won in the center ground."},{"startTime":279.18,"endTime":282.36,"body":"The classic graph of public opinion"},{"startTime":282.36,"endTime":284.55,"body":"in this period is a bell jar."},{"startTime":284.55,"endTime":287.37,"body":"The votes are sitting"},{"startTime":284.55,"endTime":287.37,"body":"where my fingers are,"},{"startTime":287.37,"endTime":289.23,"body":"not where my elbows are."},{"startTime":289.23,"endTime":290.61,"body":"The conventional wisdom is you need"},{"startTime":290.61,"endTime":292.983,"body":"to scoop up the votes with the fingers."},{"startTime":294.69,"endTime":297.472,"body":"The second assumption of this period"},{"startTime":297.472,"endTime":302.01,"body":"is that there is a clear"},{"startTime":297.472,"endTime":302.01,"body":"vision for prosperity,"},{"startTime":302.01,"endTime":306.783,"body":"and that is driven by"},{"startTime":302.01,"endTime":306.783,"body":"free, open, global markets."},{"startTime":307.713,"endTime":312.06,"body":"The third element of this moment"},{"startTime":312.06,"endTime":315.12,"body":"is an idea that there is an ineluctable"},{"startTime":315.12,"endTime":320.12,"body":"and inescapable connection"},{"startTime":315.12,"endTime":320.12,"body":"between democracy and prosperity,"},{"startTime":321.937,"endTime":323.38,"body":"that these free, open markets"},{"startTime":323.38,"endTime":327.9,"body":"and a liberal democratic"},{"startTime":323.38,"endTime":327.9,"body":"system are combined."},{"startTime":327.9,"endTime":330.725,"body":"And this is something which"},{"startTime":327.9,"endTime":330.725,"body":"I will explore in a second,"},{"startTime":330.725,"endTime":334.83,"body":"but is the core of what's"},{"startTime":330.725,"endTime":334.83,"body":"called modernization theory"},{"startTime":334.83,"endTime":338.04,"body":"in the United States"},{"startTime":334.83,"endTime":338.04,"body":"from the 1950s onwards."},{"startTime":338.04,"endTime":339.72,"body":"The idea basically here being"},{"startTime":339.72,"endTime":341.91,"body":"that as you grow more prosperous,"},{"startTime":341.91,"endTime":345.147,"body":"you are inevitably going"},{"startTime":341.91,"endTime":345.147,"body":"to become a democracy."},{"startTime":345.147,"endTime":348.06,"body":"Once your middle class"},{"startTime":345.147,"endTime":348.06,"body":"gets to a certain size,"},{"startTime":348.06,"endTime":349.614,"body":"it's going to demand freedoms,"},{"startTime":349.614,"endTime":351.96,"body":"and indeed your economic system"},{"startTime":351.96,"endTime":354.36,"body":"is going to require those"},{"startTime":351.96,"endTime":354.36,"body":"freedoms in order to grow."},{"startTime":354.36,"endTime":355.95,"body":"So prosperity creates democracy,"},{"startTime":355.95,"endTime":357.573,"body":"democracy creates prosperity."},{"startTime":359.58,"endTime":363.364,"body":"The fourth element of"},{"startTime":359.58,"endTime":363.364,"body":"this system in the 1990s"},{"startTime":363.364,"endTime":368.364,"body":"is the idea of the moral"},{"startTime":363.364,"endTime":368.364,"body":"legitimacy of the West,"},{"startTime":368.576,"endTime":370.98,"body":"moral legitimacy of the West."},{"startTime":370.98,"endTime":375.98,"body":"And this is seen in the"},{"startTime":370.98,"endTime":375.98,"body":"interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo"},{"startTime":376.17,"endTime":378.09,"body":"and in Sierra Leone and Liberia,"},{"startTime":378.09,"endTime":382.32,"body":"these interventions of the late 1990s."},{"startTime":382.32,"endTime":383.76,"body":"In these interventions,"},{"startTime":383.76,"endTime":387.57,"body":"the United States and its"},{"startTime":383.76,"endTime":387.57,"body":"allies takes it upon itself,"},{"startTime":387.57,"endTime":390.303,"body":"takes it upon themselves to intervene,"},{"startTime":390.303,"endTime":393.474,"body":"to do these humanitarian interventions."},{"startTime":393.474,"endTime":396.66,"body":"For the first time, state sovereignty"},{"startTime":396.66,"endTime":401.01,"body":"is broken by military invasions"},{"startTime":396.66,"endTime":401.01,"body":"in the name of human rights."},{"startTime":401.01,"endTime":403.083,"body":"The idea is that we're going into Bosnia"},{"startTime":403.083,"endTime":407.39,"body":"to protect the Bosnian-Serb"},{"startTime":403.083,"endTime":407.39,"body":"population in Sarajevo,"},{"startTime":407.39,"endTime":411.96,"body":"37,000 of whom have died"},{"startTime":407.39,"endTime":411.96,"body":"from the Serbian artillery"},{"startTime":411.96,"endTime":413.91,"body":"around the fringes."},{"startTime":413.91,"endTime":415.02,"body":"We're going into Kosovo"},{"startTime":415.02,"endTime":418.44,"body":"to back the Kosovar Albanian population"},{"startTime":418.44,"endTime":422.19,"body":"against the oppression"},{"startTime":418.44,"endTime":422.19,"body":"of Slobodan Milosevic."},{"startTime":422.19,"endTime":423.66,"body":"And in Liberia and Sierra Leone,"},{"startTime":423.66,"endTime":426.753,"body":"we are intervening against"},{"startTime":423.66,"endTime":426.753,"body":"child soldiers and civil war."},{"startTime":427.83,"endTime":429.84,"body":"And this is based on a fundamental idea"},{"startTime":429.84,"endTime":432.9,"body":"that we have the moral legitimacy,"},{"startTime":432.9,"endTime":435.794,"body":"that other countries want to be like us."},{"startTime":435.794,"endTime":438.788,"body":"People do not want to live in tyrannies."},{"startTime":438.788,"endTime":441.06,"body":"They want to move to the United States."},{"startTime":441.06,"endTime":442.14,"body":"They want to move to Britain"},{"startTime":442.14,"endTime":445.999,"body":"because we believe our system is better."},{"startTime":445.999,"endTime":449.015,"body":"And the fifth element of this,"},{"startTime":449.015,"endTime":452.64,"body":"which comes out of much"},{"startTime":449.015,"endTime":452.64,"body":"of what precedes it,"},{"startTime":452.64,"endTime":454.502,"body":"is the idea that this is universal,"},{"startTime":454.502,"endTime":459.502,"body":"that there is something"},{"startTime":454.502,"endTime":459.502,"body":"called a liberal global order,"},{"startTime":459.761,"endTime":462.15,"body":"that this liberal global order"},{"startTime":462.15,"endTime":463.41,"body":"is just going to grow and grow."},{"startTime":463.41,"endTime":465.06,"body":"If the number of democracies in the world"},{"startTime":465.06,"endTime":467.67,"body":"has doubled in that period of 15 years,"},{"startTime":467.67,"endTime":468.75,"body":"it's just going to double again."},{"startTime":468.75,"endTime":470.455,"body":"And pretty soon, every"},{"startTime":468.75,"endTime":470.455,"body":"country in the world"},{"startTime":470.455,"endTime":475.225,"body":"is going to be a democracy"},{"startTime":470.455,"endTime":475.225,"body":"because we're right, we're good,"},{"startTime":475.225,"endTime":477.63,"body":"these things are logically connected,"},{"startTime":477.63,"endTime":479.43,"body":"and they're all going to come together."},{"startTime":481.98,"endTime":485.553,"body":"So a nice moment, it"},{"startTime":481.98,"endTime":485.553,"body":"appears, for the world,"},{"startTime":486.45,"endTime":491.45,"body":"and a moment that evaporates"},{"startTime":486.45,"endTime":491.45,"body":"astonishingly quickly"},{"startTime":491.581,"endTime":496.147,"body":"and begins to go wrong in the early 2000s."},{"startTime":496.147,"endTime":500.01,"body":"In the early 2000s, we enter a period"},{"startTime":500.01,"endTime":503.198,"body":"where on almost every"},{"startTime":500.01,"endTime":503.198,"body":"indicator I've mentioned,"},{"startTime":503.198,"endTime":506.43,"body":"we move from dramatic growth"},{"startTime":506.43,"endTime":510.58,"body":"to a form of paralysis and uncertainty."},{"startTime":510.58,"endTime":512.628,"body":"The ideas, the forms,"},{"startTime":512.628,"endTime":515.923,"body":"the developments which have"},{"startTime":512.628,"endTime":515.923,"body":"characterized the 1990s"},{"startTime":515.923,"endTime":520.887,"body":"begin to reemerge in slightly"},{"startTime":515.923,"endTime":520.887,"body":"more grotesque shapes,"},{"startTime":520.887,"endTime":523.29,"body":"slight echoes of the past,"},{"startTime":523.29,"endTime":527.694,"body":"repetitions which are somewhere"},{"startTime":523.29,"endTime":527.694,"body":"between tragedy and comedy."},{"startTime":527.694,"endTime":529.283,"body":"The most dramatic of all, of course,"},{"startTime":529.283,"endTime":532.283,"body":"being the way in which"},{"startTime":529.283,"endTime":532.283,"body":"Iraq and Afghanistan does"},{"startTime":532.283,"endTime":536.465,"body":"and does not reflect what"},{"startTime":532.283,"endTime":536.465,"body":"happened in Bosnia and Kosovo."},{"startTime":536.465,"endTime":538.615,"body":"But a series of these events,"},{"startTime":538.615,"endTime":541.92,"body":"and these events hit every one"},{"startTime":541.92,"endTime":545.844,"body":"of our five central pillars of the 1990s."},{"startTime":545.844,"endTime":550.221,"body":"The first of those which"},{"startTime":545.844,"endTime":550.221,"body":"attacks the notion of consensus,"},{"startTime":550.221,"endTime":555.159,"body":"right, my fingers, is the"},{"startTime":550.221,"endTime":555.159,"body":"development of social media."},{"startTime":555.159,"endTime":560.159,"body":"Twitter and Facebook begin"},{"startTime":555.159,"endTime":560.159,"body":"to develop in 2003, 2004,"},{"startTime":562.38,"endTime":564.947,"body":"and they reach their apogee in 2011"},{"startTime":564.947,"endTime":569.19,"body":"as a political form with the Arab Spring."},{"startTime":569.19,"endTime":570.9,"body":"Suddenly, for the first time,"},{"startTime":570.9,"endTime":573.96,"body":"somebody setting himself"},{"startTime":570.9,"endTime":573.96,"body":"alight in Tunisia,"},{"startTime":573.96,"endTime":577.536,"body":"a man setting himself alight"},{"startTime":573.96,"endTime":577.536,"body":"in a small town in Tunisia,"},{"startTime":577.536,"endTime":582.536,"body":"is able to spark unrest,"},{"startTime":577.536,"endTime":582.536,"body":"uprising revolution"},{"startTime":583.17,"endTime":588.17,"body":"across Libya, Egypt,"},{"startTime":583.17,"endTime":588.17,"body":"Syria, Yemen, Bahrain."},{"startTime":590.67,"endTime":594.023,"body":"This is a very, very"},{"startTime":590.67,"endTime":594.023,"body":"surprising phenomenon."},{"startTime":594.023,"endTime":596.34,"body":"Because in previous eras,"},{"startTime":596.34,"endTime":598.889,"body":"you would have argued the differences"},{"startTime":598.889,"endTime":600.753,"body":"between those countries."},{"startTime":600.753,"endTime":603.952,"body":"They're different in their"},{"startTime":600.753,"endTime":603.952,"body":"sectarian composition."},{"startTime":603.952,"endTime":606.683,"body":"They're different in their constitutions."},{"startTime":606.683,"endTime":609.263,"body":"They're different in their"},{"startTime":606.683,"endTime":609.263,"body":"geographical location."},{"startTime":609.263,"endTime":612.268,"body":"And it seems fundamentally implausible"},{"startTime":612.268,"endTime":614.34,"body":"that somebody in a small town in Tunisia"},{"startTime":614.34,"endTime":618.137,"body":"would be able to spark"},{"startTime":614.34,"endTime":618.137,"body":"this kind of change."},{"startTime":618.137,"endTime":621.378,"body":"The second thing that"},{"startTime":618.137,"endTime":621.378,"body":"happens in this period"},{"startTime":621.378,"endTime":625.904,"body":"is going to strike the"},{"startTime":621.378,"endTime":625.904,"body":"notion that free markets"},{"startTime":625.904,"endTime":630.904,"body":"and globalization and prosperity"},{"startTime":625.904,"endTime":630.904,"body":"are necessarily connected."},{"startTime":633.39,"endTime":638.263,"body":"And this is, of course,"},{"startTime":633.39,"endTime":638.263,"body":"the 2008 financial crisis."},{"startTime":638.263,"endTime":641.82,"body":"The 2008 financial crisis is devastating."},{"startTime":641.82,"endTime":645.57,"body":"Devastating for the credibility"},{"startTime":641.82,"endTime":645.57,"body":"of our economic system."},{"startTime":645.57,"endTime":648.568,"body":"Devastating also for the"},{"startTime":645.57,"endTime":648.568,"body":"credibility of our elites."},{"startTime":648.568,"endTime":650.366,"body":"Devastating for the bankers."},{"startTime":650.366,"endTime":654.42,"body":"Devastating for the politicians"},{"startTime":650.366,"endTime":654.42,"body":"who failed to anticipate it."},{"startTime":654.42,"endTime":656.903,"body":"And devastating, of"},{"startTime":654.42,"endTime":656.903,"body":"course, most fundamentally,"},{"startTime":656.903,"endTime":659.72,"body":"because it leads, in"},{"startTime":656.903,"endTime":659.72,"body":"countries like Britain,"},{"startTime":659.72,"endTime":664.17,"body":"to 15 years of frozen GDP per capita"},{"startTime":664.17,"endTime":666.289,"body":"and frozen productivity,"},{"startTime":666.289,"endTime":671.289,"body":"exposing that the dreams"},{"startTime":666.289,"endTime":671.289,"body":"of the 1990s have actually,"},{"startTime":672.21,"endTime":675.03,"body":"in the case of many people,"},{"startTime":672.21,"endTime":675.03,"body":"particularly on low incomes,"},{"startTime":675.03,"endTime":678.843,"body":"corresponded with stagnant"},{"startTime":675.03,"endTime":678.843,"body":"incomes and rising inequality."},{"startTime":681.3,"endTime":684.008,"body":"The third thing that"},{"startTime":681.3,"endTime":684.008,"body":"happens in this period"},{"startTime":684.008,"endTime":686.411,"body":"is a challenge to the notion"},{"startTime":686.411,"endTime":690.403,"body":"of the necessary connection"},{"startTime":686.411,"endTime":690.403,"body":"between prosperity,"},{"startTime":690.403,"endTime":693.625,"body":"free markets, and democracy."},{"startTime":693.625,"endTime":696.93,"body":"And that, of course, is"},{"startTime":693.625,"endTime":696.93,"body":"symbolized in our period"},{"startTime":696.93,"endTime":699.42,"body":"by the rise of China."},{"startTime":699.42,"endTime":700.74,"body":"The modernization theorists"},{"startTime":700.74,"endTime":704.1,"body":"in the 1950s and 1960s fundamentally held"},{"startTime":704.1,"endTime":706.061,"body":"that it would not be possible"},{"startTime":706.061,"endTime":709.32,"body":"to reach a certain economic"},{"startTime":706.061,"endTime":709.32,"body":"weight for your middle class"},{"startTime":709.32,"endTime":710.209,"body":"to get to a certain size,"},{"startTime":710.209,"endTime":713.01,"body":"for a certain GDP per"},{"startTime":710.209,"endTime":713.01,"body":"capita to be surpassed,"},{"startTime":713.01,"endTime":715.918,"body":"without you becoming a"},{"startTime":713.01,"endTime":715.918,"body":"liberal democratic state."},{"startTime":715.918,"endTime":720.81,"body":"China joins the World"},{"startTime":715.918,"endTime":720.81,"body":"Trade Organization in 2001."},{"startTime":720.81,"endTime":725.19,"body":"In 2005, China's economy becomes larger"},{"startTime":725.19,"endTime":726.968,"body":"than the French economy."},{"startTime":726.968,"endTime":730.22,"body":"2006, it becomes larger"},{"startTime":726.968,"endTime":730.22,"body":"than the British economy."},{"startTime":730.22,"endTime":733.74,"body":"2007, it becomes larger"},{"startTime":730.22,"endTime":733.74,"body":"than the German economy."},{"startTime":733.74,"endTime":737.4,"body":"2008, it becomes larger"},{"startTime":733.74,"endTime":737.4,"body":"than the Japanese economy."},{"startTime":737.4,"endTime":741.03,"body":"900 million people are"},{"startTime":737.4,"endTime":741.03,"body":"pulled out of poverty,"},{"startTime":741.03,"endTime":742.53,"body":"and the Chinese middle class"},{"startTime":742.53,"endTime":745.893,"body":"becomes very large and very considerable."},{"startTime":745.893,"endTime":749.602,"body":"However, China does not convert"},{"startTime":745.893,"endTime":749.602,"body":"into a liberal democracy."},{"startTime":749.602,"endTime":754.602,"body":"In fact, sustained growth"},{"startTime":749.602,"endTime":754.602,"body":"of nearly 9.5% since 1980"},{"startTime":756.518,"endTime":758.309,"body":"appears to be compatible"},{"startTime":758.309,"endTime":762.48,"body":"with the retention of a"},{"startTime":758.309,"endTime":762.48,"body":"highly authoritarian system,"},{"startTime":762.48,"endTime":767.48,"body":"solidified in 2012 by Xi Jinping"},{"startTime":762.48,"endTime":767.48,"body":"becoming the ruler of China"},{"startTime":770.04,"endTime":773.49,"body":"and the moves that he makes"},{"startTime":770.04,"endTime":773.49,"body":"to tighten party control"},{"startTime":773.49,"endTime":775.113,"body":"and his own authoritarian rule."},{"startTime":776.727,"endTime":780.495,"body":"The fourth big change that"},{"startTime":776.727,"endTime":780.495,"body":"happens in this period"},{"startTime":780.495,"endTime":782.94,"body":"is a challenge to the notion"},{"startTime":782.94,"endTime":786.535,"body":"of our moral legitimacy or superiority."},{"startTime":786.535,"endTime":791.535,"body":"And that actually is in some"},{"startTime":786.535,"endTime":791.535,"body":"way combined with social media,"},{"startTime":792.57,"endTime":795.72,"body":"because social media"},{"startTime":792.57,"endTime":795.72,"body":"begins not only to polarize"},{"startTime":795.72,"endTime":800.72,"body":"but to unlock various"},{"startTime":795.72,"endTime":800.72,"body":"unstable coalitions of dissent"},{"startTime":801.876,"endTime":805.08,"body":"and begins to question the"},{"startTime":801.876,"endTime":805.08,"body":"fundamental hierarchies"},{"startTime":805.08,"endTime":806.19,"body":"that have preceded it."},{"startTime":806.19,"endTime":807.96,"body":"We see it in the media landscape."},{"startTime":807.96,"endTime":809.55,"body":"We see it in the shift away"},{"startTime":809.55,"endTime":812.647,"body":"from everybody watching"},{"startTime":809.55,"endTime":812.647,"body":"the same BBC programs"},{"startTime":812.647,"endTime":815.772,"body":"or in the United States"},{"startTime":812.647,"endTime":815.772,"body":"watching the same news anchors"},{"startTime":815.772,"endTime":818.97,"body":"to a world in which we begin to atomize"},{"startTime":818.97,"endTime":821.883,"body":"into various different,"},{"startTime":818.97,"endTime":821.883,"body":"very separate echo chambers."},{"startTime":822.717,"endTime":825.793,"body":"But we see it also"},{"startTime":822.717,"endTime":825.793,"body":"fundamentally in the ways"},{"startTime":825.793,"endTime":829.081,"body":"in which the West begins"},{"startTime":825.793,"endTime":829.081,"body":"to challenge itself,"},{"startTime":829.081,"endTime":832.02,"body":"and particularly the ways"},{"startTime":829.081,"endTime":832.02,"body":"in which young people"},{"startTime":832.02,"endTime":834.067,"body":"and movements in the"},{"startTime":832.02,"endTime":834.067,"body":"West begin to challenge"},{"startTime":834.067,"endTime":836.43,"body":"the authority of the old system."},{"startTime":836.43,"endTime":839.49,"body":"We see it, of course,"},{"startTime":836.43,"endTime":839.49,"body":"very, very dramatically"},{"startTime":839.49,"endTime":841.59,"body":"in the environmental movement and the way"},{"startTime":841.59,"endTime":844.02,"body":"in which fundamental"},{"startTime":841.59,"endTime":844.02,"body":"challenges in the 2000s"},{"startTime":844.02,"endTime":846.81,"body":"about the environment and"},{"startTime":844.02,"endTime":846.81,"body":"climate begin to challenge"},{"startTime":846.81,"endTime":849.06,"body":"the construction of our economic system."},{"startTime":849.06,"endTime":851.279,"body":"We begin to see it in 2013,"},{"startTime":851.279,"endTime":854.46,"body":"which is the beginning of the"},{"startTime":851.279,"endTime":854.46,"body":"Black Lives Matter movement"},{"startTime":854.46,"endTime":855.714,"body":"in the United States."},{"startTime":855.714,"endTime":858.713,"body":"We begin to see it increasingly"},{"startTime":858.713,"endTime":861.51,"body":"in a concern that our own states,"},{"startTime":861.51,"endTime":862.95,"body":"Britain, the United States,"},{"startTime":862.95,"endTime":865.832,"body":"through their histories"},{"startTime":862.95,"endTime":865.832,"body":"of racism or colonialism,"},{"startTime":865.832,"endTime":868.855,"body":"are not, in fact,"},{"startTime":865.832,"endTime":868.855,"body":"morally legitimate actors"},{"startTime":868.855,"endTime":872.973,"body":"but are deeply indicted"},{"startTime":868.855,"endTime":872.973,"body":"in structures of inequity."},{"startTime":873.856,"endTime":876.87,"body":"The fifth development of"},{"startTime":873.856,"endTime":876.87,"body":"this period is, of course,"},{"startTime":876.87,"endTime":880.274,"body":"the loss of the idea of"},{"startTime":876.87,"endTime":880.274,"body":"the global liberal order,"},{"startTime":880.274,"endTime":883.42,"body":"which stems from some of"},{"startTime":880.274,"endTime":883.42,"body":"those previous factors"},{"startTime":883.42,"endTime":887.76,"body":"but is exemplified and revealed"},{"startTime":883.42,"endTime":887.76,"body":"to us most dramatically"},{"startTime":887.76,"endTime":891.96,"body":"by the humiliations in"},{"startTime":887.76,"endTime":891.96,"body":"Iraq and Afghanistan."},{"startTime":891.96,"endTime":896.76,"body":"There, most dramatically of"},{"startTime":891.96,"endTime":896.76,"body":"all, the fundamental idea"},{"startTime":896.76,"endTime":898.74,"body":"that it's possible for the United States"},{"startTime":898.74,"endTime":902.31,"body":"and its allies to topple, in Afghanistan,"},{"startTime":902.31,"endTime":906.78,"body":"a Taliban theocracy, what seemed to us"},{"startTime":906.78,"endTime":911.19,"body":"to be self-evidently a"},{"startTime":906.78,"endTime":911.19,"body":"repellent, oppressive system"},{"startTime":911.19,"endTime":914.07,"body":"and replace it with a more"},{"startTime":911.19,"endTime":914.07,"body":"liberal democratic model,"},{"startTime":914.07,"endTime":917.013,"body":"or, in Iraq, topple Saddam Hussein,"},{"startTime":918.09,"endTime":921.274,"body":"the epitome of the grotesque dictator,"},{"startTime":921.274,"endTime":924.83,"body":"and replace it with a more"},{"startTime":921.274,"endTime":924.83,"body":"liberal democratic system,"},{"startTime":924.83,"endTime":928.563,"body":"is exposed as optimistic folly."},{"startTime":929.598,"endTime":934.598,"body":"The United States and its"},{"startTime":929.598,"endTime":934.598,"body":"allies spend $3.5 trillion"},{"startTime":935.933,"endTime":939.36,"body":"in these enterprises in"},{"startTime":935.933,"endTime":939.36,"body":"Iraq and Afghanistan."},{"startTime":939.36,"endTime":944.04,"body":"That is, incidentally, the same"},{"startTime":939.36,"endTime":944.04,"body":"amount of money that China,"},{"startTime":944.04,"endTime":945.36,"body":"beginning in 2013,"},{"startTime":945.36,"endTime":949.02,"body":"begins to spend on the"},{"startTime":945.36,"endTime":949.02,"body":"Belt and Road Initiative."},{"startTime":949.02,"endTime":950.94,"body":"However, China's Belt and Road Initiative,"},{"startTime":950.94,"endTime":954.157,"body":"which is China's endeavor to build dams,"},{"startTime":954.157,"endTime":958.38,"body":"roads, ports, electricity substations,"},{"startTime":958.38,"endTime":962.46,"body":"right the way across"},{"startTime":958.38,"endTime":962.46,"body":"Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa,"},{"startTime":962.46,"endTime":967.46,"body":"Latin America, of course,"},{"startTime":962.46,"endTime":967.46,"body":"returns far more to China"},{"startTime":967.714,"endTime":970.71,"body":"than this extraordinary extravagance"},{"startTime":970.71,"endTime":972.543,"body":"in Iraq and Afghanistan."},{"startTime":973.393,"endTime":978.393,"body":"This then leads us, with"},{"startTime":973.393,"endTime":978.393,"body":"a degree of hysteria,"},{"startTime":979.845,"endTime":982.71,"body":"into the third age that I want to examine,"},{"startTime":982.71,"endTime":986.697,"body":"and that's the third"},{"startTime":982.71,"endTime":986.697,"body":"age that begins in 2014."},{"startTime":986.697,"endTime":990.54,"body":"And because these changes"},{"startTime":986.697,"endTime":990.54,"body":"are happening so fast,"},{"startTime":990.54,"endTime":993.123,"body":"many people don't notice"},{"startTime":990.54,"endTime":993.123,"body":"they're happening."},{"startTime":994.037,"endTime":996.42,"body":"Let me take a classic example of this."},{"startTime":996.42,"endTime":1000.14,"body":"A classic example of this"},{"startTime":996.42,"endTime":1000.14,"body":"whole world is a figure called,"},{"startTime":1000.14,"endTime":1002.84,"body":"who many of you in the room"},{"startTime":1000.14,"endTime":1002.84,"body":"may struggle to remember,"},{"startTime":1002.84,"endTime":1005.188,"body":"but a figure called David Cameron."},{"startTime":1005.188,"endTime":1006.021,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1006.021,"endTime":1009.015,"body":"So David Cameron enters working life,"},{"startTime":1009.015,"endTime":1011.545,"body":"as in the conservative"},{"startTime":1009.015,"endTime":1011.545,"body":"research department,"},{"startTime":1011.545,"endTime":1016.16,"body":"the end of 1988, the beginning of 1989."},{"startTime":1016.16,"endTime":1019.13,"body":"And it is, of course, true"},{"startTime":1016.16,"endTime":1019.13,"body":"for him, as for most of us,"},{"startTime":1019.13,"endTime":1022.94,"body":"that that first 15 years of working life"},{"startTime":1022.94,"endTime":1025.882,"body":"defines your worldview for life."},{"startTime":1025.882,"endTime":1029.48,"body":"So he is coming into his working life"},{"startTime":1029.48,"endTime":1031.79,"body":"with the fall of the Berlin Wall."},{"startTime":1031.79,"endTime":1034.026,"body":"He brings in, actually, as"},{"startTime":1031.79,"endTime":1034.026,"body":"his chief-of-staff, somebody"},{"startTime":1034.026,"endTime":1037.435,"body":"who's been Paddy Ashdown's"},{"startTime":1034.026,"endTime":1037.435,"body":"chief-of-staff in Bosnia."},{"startTime":1037.435,"endTime":1039.29,"body":"He sees the world"},{"startTime":1039.29,"endTime":1043.07,"body":"through the lens of"},{"startTime":1039.29,"endTime":1043.07,"body":"humanitarian intervention."},{"startTime":1043.07,"endTime":1045.05,"body":"He has no idea of social media."},{"startTime":1045.05,"endTime":1049.91,"body":"He doesn't anticipate the"},{"startTime":1045.05,"endTime":1049.91,"body":"2008 financial crisis."},{"startTime":1049.91,"endTime":1051.56,"body":"He remains deeply committed"},{"startTime":1051.56,"endTime":1054.016,"body":"to an idea of an old global order."},{"startTime":1054.016,"endTime":1058.337,"body":"And he remains in this world until 2005,"},{"startTime":1058.337,"endTime":1062.12,"body":"when he is elected as the"},{"startTime":1058.337,"endTime":1062.12,"body":"conservative party leader."},{"startTime":1062.12,"endTime":1063.14,"body":"And from then onwards,"},{"startTime":1063.14,"endTime":1064.885,"body":"I can assure you, as an ex-politician,"},{"startTime":1064.885,"endTime":1067.229,"body":"one no longer has the time to think."},{"startTime":1067.229,"endTime":1069.069,"body":"The key thing to understand"},{"startTime":1069.069,"endTime":1070.76,"body":"about leaders of political parties,"},{"startTime":1070.76,"endTime":1071.87,"body":"and particularly prime ministers,"},{"startTime":1071.87,"endTime":1074.39,"body":"is that they're spending so"},{"startTime":1071.87,"endTime":1074.39,"body":"much time on their focus groups,"},{"startTime":1074.39,"endTime":1076.31,"body":"their polling groups, their campaigns,"},{"startTime":1076.31,"endTime":1078.68,"body":"and simply trying to"},{"startTime":1076.31,"endTime":1078.68,"body":"survive in the barrage"},{"startTime":1078.68,"endTime":1081.038,"body":"and hostile media attention"},{"startTime":1078.68,"endTime":1081.038,"body":"in the opposition,"},{"startTime":1081.038,"endTime":1082.94,"body":"that the idea of actually being able"},{"startTime":1082.94,"endTime":1085.7,"body":"to have any time to think"},{"startTime":1082.94,"endTime":1085.7,"body":"about policy in global forms"},{"startTime":1085.7,"endTime":1087.17,"body":"is for the birds."},{"startTime":1087.17,"endTime":1088.16,"body":"This was actually pointed out to me"},{"startTime":1088.16,"endTime":1089.78,"body":"when I left Harvard University."},{"startTime":1089.78,"endTime":1091.97,"body":"I came into British"},{"startTime":1089.78,"endTime":1091.97,"body":"politics by Mitt Romney,"},{"startTime":1091.97,"endTime":1093.83,"body":"who took me aside and said to me,"},{"startTime":1093.83,"endTime":1095.18,"body":"how much longer are you at Harvard?"},{"startTime":1095.18,"endTime":1096.23,"body":"And I said, four weeks."},{"startTime":1096.23,"endTime":1097.64,"body":"He said, that's the last four weeks"},{"startTime":1097.64,"endTime":1099.025,"body":"you're going to have"},{"startTime":1097.64,"endTime":1099.025,"body":"to think in your life."},{"startTime":1099.025,"endTime":1101.227,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1101.227,"endTime":1103.31,"body":"So David Cameron comes in in 2005,"},{"startTime":1103.31,"endTime":1105.74,"body":"and you can see the ways"},{"startTime":1103.31,"endTime":1105.74,"body":"in which his experience"},{"startTime":1105.74,"endTime":1110.74,"body":"from 1989 to 2005 defines his"},{"startTime":1105.74,"endTime":1110.74,"body":"missteps as he moves forward."},{"startTime":1111.445,"endTime":1113.69,"body":"You can see it in his inability"},{"startTime":1113.69,"endTime":1116.18,"body":"to predict the financial crisis."},{"startTime":1116.18,"endTime":1117.62,"body":"You can see it in the ways"},{"startTime":1117.62,"endTime":1120.612,"body":"in which his intervention in Libya,"},{"startTime":1120.612,"endTime":1125.0,"body":"his attempts to propel an"},{"startTime":1120.612,"endTime":1125.0,"body":"intervention into Syria"},{"startTime":1125.0,"endTime":1128.09,"body":"are very much part of an old world"},{"startTime":1128.09,"endTime":1129.41,"body":"where he imagines the West"},{"startTime":1129.41,"endTime":1130.76,"body":"is still going to be able to act"},{"startTime":1130.76,"endTime":1133.073,"body":"in the way that it did"},{"startTime":1130.76,"endTime":1133.073,"body":"in Bosnia and Kosovo."},{"startTime":1133.97,"endTime":1136.85,"body":"You can see it in his"},{"startTime":1133.97,"endTime":1136.85,"body":"great, great reluctance"},{"startTime":1136.85,"endTime":1138.732,"body":"to vote against Iraq or Afghanistan."},{"startTime":1138.732,"endTime":1141.8,"body":"He continues to endorse"},{"startTime":1138.732,"endTime":1141.8,"body":"those interventions"},{"startTime":1141.8,"endTime":1145.34,"body":"and is extremely reluctant to"},{"startTime":1141.8,"endTime":1145.34,"body":"see any problems with them."},{"startTime":1145.34,"endTime":1148.043,"body":"You can see it in his"},{"startTime":1145.34,"endTime":1148.043,"body":"relationship to social media."},{"startTime":1149.12,"endTime":1151.203,"body":"Famously, in an interview in 2009,"},{"startTime":1151.203,"endTime":1153.98,"body":"he said he had no"},{"startTime":1151.203,"endTime":1153.98,"body":"intention of using Twitter"},{"startTime":1153.98,"endTime":1155.93,"body":"because as far as he was concerned,"},{"startTime":1155.93,"endTime":1159.05,"body":"people who used Twitter were twats."},{"startTime":1159.05,"endTime":1161.631,"body":"It's David Cameron's great, great comment."},{"startTime":1161.631,"endTime":1164.99,"body":"And so he's not a man who is prepared"},{"startTime":1164.99,"endTime":1167.615,"body":"for the world that is about to erupt."},{"startTime":1167.615,"endTime":1170.75,"body":"And you can see this from 2014 onwards."},{"startTime":1170.75,"endTime":1175.75,"body":"So, 2014 is the beginning"},{"startTime":1170.75,"endTime":1175.75,"body":"of the age of populism."},{"startTime":1177.72,"endTime":1179.96,"body":"And it's an age of populism"},{"startTime":1179.96,"endTime":1182.388,"body":"where all these factors"},{"startTime":1179.96,"endTime":1182.388,"body":"that I've mentioned"},{"startTime":1182.388,"endTime":1184.22,"body":"are beginning to accelerate"},{"startTime":1184.22,"endTime":1187.7,"body":"a very dramatic shift in the moral values,"},{"startTime":1187.7,"endTime":1189.95,"body":"the political assumptions,"},{"startTime":1187.7,"endTime":1189.95,"body":"the economic models,"},{"startTime":1189.95,"endTime":1193.087,"body":"and indeed, the very state"},{"startTime":1189.95,"endTime":1193.087,"body":"structures of the West."},{"startTime":1193.087,"endTime":1198.087,"body":"We see this first in 2014 when"},{"startTime":1193.087,"endTime":1198.087,"body":"a barely known group, ISIS,"},{"startTime":1201.17,"endTime":1203.45,"body":"manages with a few hundred fighters"},{"startTime":1203.45,"endTime":1207.83,"body":"to route three divisions of"},{"startTime":1203.45,"endTime":1207.83,"body":"the Iraqi army, capture Mosul,"},{"startTime":1207.83,"endTime":1210.054,"body":"the second largest city in Iraq,"},{"startTime":1210.054,"endTime":1215.054,"body":"and create a caliphate that"},{"startTime":1210.054,"endTime":1215.054,"body":"stretched from Syria into Iraq,"},{"startTime":1215.54,"endTime":1217.643,"body":"breaking that border."},{"startTime":1218.57,"endTime":1221.423,"body":"And this is very much a"},{"startTime":1218.57,"endTime":1221.423,"body":"movement fueled by social media."},{"startTime":1222.446,"endTime":1226.595,"body":"But the same year is also the"},{"startTime":1222.446,"endTime":1226.595,"body":"year in which Narendra Modi"},{"startTime":1226.595,"endTime":1228.74,"body":"is elected in India,"},{"startTime":1228.74,"endTime":1232.53,"body":"bringing a particular form"},{"startTime":1228.74,"endTime":1232.53,"body":"of Hindu ethno-nationalism"},{"startTime":1232.53,"endTime":1236.0,"body":"in replacement of the old structures,"},{"startTime":1236.0,"endTime":1239.633,"body":"the old assumptions of the"},{"startTime":1236.0,"endTime":1239.633,"body":"Congress Party in India."},{"startTime":1241.43,"endTime":1246.43,"body":"2014 is also the moment where"},{"startTime":1241.43,"endTime":1246.43,"body":"we see a shift in Erdogan."},{"startTime":1247.82,"endTime":1250.43,"body":"And maybe it's worth thinking"},{"startTime":1247.82,"endTime":1250.43,"body":"a little bit about Erdogan"},{"startTime":1250.43,"endTime":1255.43,"body":"because if David Cameron"},{"startTime":1250.43,"endTime":1255.43,"body":"is a symbol of the old era,"},{"startTime":1255.71,"endTime":1259.34,"body":"1989 to 2005, Erdogan is a symbol"},{"startTime":1259.34,"endTime":1262.422,"body":"of somebody transitioning"},{"startTime":1259.34,"endTime":1262.422,"body":"into the new era."},{"startTime":1262.422,"endTime":1267.422,"body":"So Erdogan was from a very,"},{"startTime":1262.422,"endTime":1267.422,"body":"very poor background in Turkey."},{"startTime":1269.03,"endTime":1271.04,"body":"He, in his teens,"},{"startTime":1271.04,"endTime":1273.83,"body":"was to be found on the"},{"startTime":1271.04,"endTime":1273.83,"body":"streets selling water bottles"},{"startTime":1273.83,"endTime":1275.87,"body":"to truck drivers and simit,"},{"startTime":1275.87,"endTime":1278.283,"body":"which is a sort of giant pretzel."},{"startTime":1278.283,"endTime":1281.9,"body":"And you'll see young boys,"},{"startTime":1278.283,"endTime":1281.9,"body":"young girls like that"},{"startTime":1281.9,"endTime":1284.266,"body":"if you drive through Istanbul even today."},{"startTime":1284.266,"endTime":1285.47,"body":"These are people"},{"startTime":1285.47,"endTime":1287.486,"body":"he's from a very, very"},{"startTime":1285.47,"endTime":1287.486,"body":"low-income background."},{"startTime":1287.486,"endTime":1289.926,"body":"He probably didn't go to university,"},{"startTime":1289.926,"endTime":1291.59,"body":"although he currently claims"},{"startTime":1291.59,"endTime":1293.24,"body":"that he got some kind of degree."},{"startTime":1293.24,"endTime":1294.5,"body":"Nobody can find any record"},{"startTime":1294.5,"endTime":1297.89,"body":"of it anywhere in the Turkish system."},{"startTime":1297.89,"endTime":1302.89,"body":"But in the late 1990s, he"},{"startTime":1297.89,"endTime":1302.89,"body":"became the mayor of Istanbul."},{"startTime":1303.11,"endTime":1304.13,"body":"And he drove through"},{"startTime":1304.13,"endTime":1307.28,"body":"some very, very impressive"},{"startTime":1304.13,"endTime":1307.28,"body":"infrastructure investments,"},{"startTime":1307.28,"endTime":1309.303,"body":"particularly in bridges and roads."},{"startTime":1309.303,"endTime":1311.57,"body":"And by the early 2000s,"},{"startTime":1311.57,"endTime":1314.684,"body":"when he's beginning to come"},{"startTime":1311.57,"endTime":1314.684,"body":"to national power in Turkey,"},{"startTime":1314.684,"endTime":1318.5,"body":"he becomes the great hope of the West."},{"startTime":1318.5,"endTime":1320.381,"body":"He seems to epitomize the possibility"},{"startTime":1320.381,"endTime":1323.399,"body":"of Turkey joining this"},{"startTime":1320.381,"endTime":1323.399,"body":"liberal global order."},{"startTime":1323.399,"endTime":1325.182,"body":"He's pro-European."},{"startTime":1325.182,"endTime":1328.146,"body":"He endorses gay rights."},{"startTime":1328.146,"endTime":1330.923,"body":"He abolishes the death penalty."},{"startTime":1332.339,"endTime":1333.92,"body":"And he becomes,"},{"startTime":1333.92,"endTime":1336.11,"body":"for people like the European"},{"startTime":1333.92,"endTime":1336.11,"body":"Stability Initiative,"},{"startTime":1336.11,"endTime":1338.3,"body":"a hope that actually democracy"},{"startTime":1338.3,"endTime":1339.619,"body":"may flow not just through Turkey,"},{"startTime":1339.619,"endTime":1341.39,"body":"because of course he's also moving"},{"startTime":1341.39,"endTime":1344.24,"body":"against the military regime in Turkey,"},{"startTime":1344.24,"endTime":1345.59,"body":"but that it may eventually spread"},{"startTime":1345.59,"endTime":1348.71,"body":"from Turkey right through"},{"startTime":1345.59,"endTime":1348.71,"body":"the whole of the Middle East."},{"startTime":1348.71,"endTime":1351.877,"body":"2014, however, beginning"},{"startTime":1348.71,"endTime":1351.877,"body":"of the age of populism,"},{"startTime":1351.877,"endTime":1355.7,"body":"is the year in which a very"},{"startTime":1351.877,"endTime":1355.7,"body":"different Erdogan emerges."},{"startTime":1355.7,"endTime":1357.41,"body":"Erdogan as president."},{"startTime":1357.41,"endTime":1358.37,"body":"This is the year"},{"startTime":1358.37,"endTime":1362.75,"body":"in which when 1,000"},{"startTime":1358.37,"endTime":1362.75,"body":"Turkish academics protest"},{"startTime":1362.75,"endTime":1366.03,"body":"against military operations"},{"startTime":1362.75,"endTime":1366.03,"body":"against the Kurds,"},{"startTime":1366.03,"endTime":1369.86,"body":"immediately, they are arrested."},{"startTime":1369.86,"endTime":1372.38,"body":"About half of them lose their jobs."},{"startTime":1372.38,"endTime":1374.57,"body":"About 20 of them remain in jail."},{"startTime":1374.57,"endTime":1375.403,"body":"This is the moment"},{"startTime":1375.403,"endTime":1378.23,"body":"at which journalists"},{"startTime":1375.403,"endTime":1378.23,"body":"begin to become arrested."},{"startTime":1378.23,"endTime":1379.454,"body":"This is the moment at which,"},{"startTime":1379.454,"endTime":1381.5,"body":"perhaps most dramatically of all,"},{"startTime":1381.5,"endTime":1383.27,"body":"Erdogan completes the construction"},{"startTime":1383.27,"endTime":1387.05,"body":"of his $350 million presidential palace,"},{"startTime":1387.05,"endTime":1389.63,"body":"representing a different"},{"startTime":1387.05,"endTime":1389.63,"body":"vision of the leader"},{"startTime":1389.63,"endTime":1391.69,"body":"to the man who is selling simit"},{"startTime":1391.69,"endTime":1394.61,"body":"on the streets in his teens."},{"startTime":1394.61,"endTime":1397.19,"body":"Moving forward through"},{"startTime":1394.61,"endTime":1397.19,"body":"the age of populism, 2015,"},{"startTime":1397.19,"endTime":1401.272,"body":"we see the Law and Justice"},{"startTime":1397.19,"endTime":1401.272,"body":"Party come to power in Poland."},{"startTime":1401.272,"endTime":1406.14,"body":"2016 is, of course, the"},{"startTime":1401.272,"endTime":1406.14,"body":"Brexit referendum in Britain."},{"startTime":1406.14,"endTime":1410.628,"body":"2018, Bolsonaro takes over in Brazil."},{"startTime":1410.628,"endTime":1414.02,"body":"And Bolsonaro is simply"},{"startTime":1410.628,"endTime":1414.02,"body":"a symbol of something"},{"startTime":1414.02,"endTime":1416.96,"body":"that is happening in a"},{"startTime":1414.02,"endTime":1416.96,"body":"very accelerated fashion"},{"startTime":1416.96,"endTime":1420.68,"body":"across Latin America and"},{"startTime":1416.96,"endTime":1420.68,"body":"whose legacy is with us today."},{"startTime":1420.68,"endTime":1423.41,"body":"Latin America basically follows the model"},{"startTime":1423.41,"endTime":1424.71,"body":"that I've laid out to you."},{"startTime":1425.69,"endTime":1429.44,"body":"Latin America goes from"},{"startTime":1425.69,"endTime":1429.44,"body":"various forms of autocratic,"},{"startTime":1429.44,"endTime":1432.59,"body":"military-backed regimes in the 1980s"},{"startTime":1432.59,"endTime":1435.491,"body":"and finds itself in the"},{"startTime":1432.59,"endTime":1435.491,"body":"late 1980s, early 1990s,"},{"startTime":1435.491,"endTime":1437.84,"body":"entering this liberal world order."},{"startTime":1437.84,"endTime":1441.89,"body":"Technocrats emerge in"},{"startTime":1437.84,"endTime":1441.89,"body":"Chile and Peru and Mexico"},{"startTime":1441.89,"endTime":1443.406,"body":"and Brazil and Colombia."},{"startTime":1443.406,"endTime":1446.6,"body":"These are people who are great darlings"},{"startTime":1446.6,"endTime":1447.98,"body":"of the international community,"},{"startTime":1447.98,"endTime":1452.87,"body":"who push ahead with Washington"},{"startTime":1447.98,"endTime":1452.87,"body":"consensus economic reforms,"},{"startTime":1452.87,"endTime":1456.02,"body":"and who, broadly speaking,"},{"startTime":1452.87,"endTime":1456.02,"body":"stand for a centrist,"},{"startTime":1456.02,"endTime":1458.213,"body":"technocratic vision of their country."},{"startTime":1459.26,"endTime":1461.69,"body":"But many of the things"},{"startTime":1459.26,"endTime":1461.69,"body":"that we've explored,"},{"startTime":1461.69,"endTime":1463.186,"body":"transformations in social media,"},{"startTime":1463.186,"endTime":1465.26,"body":"transformations in the global economy,"},{"startTime":1465.26,"endTime":1467.78,"body":"and particularly for Latin America,"},{"startTime":1467.78,"endTime":1471.38,"body":"a later commodity crash, not"},{"startTime":1467.78,"endTime":1471.38,"body":"so much the financial crisis,"},{"startTime":1471.38,"endTime":1475.52,"body":"but for them, commodity"},{"startTime":1471.38,"endTime":1475.52,"body":"crashes in 2013, 2014,"},{"startTime":1475.52,"endTime":1479.843,"body":"begin to open the door"},{"startTime":1475.52,"endTime":1479.843,"body":"to these bizarre figures,"},{"startTime":1480.71,"endTime":1485.248,"body":"people like Boric in Chile, Trujillo,"},{"startTime":1485.248,"endTime":1486.95,"body":"and of course Bolsonaro,"},{"startTime":1486.95,"endTime":1489.05,"body":"on the left and the right, coming forward."},{"startTime":1490.73,"endTime":1494.66,"body":"But in the center of this"},{"startTime":1490.73,"endTime":1494.66,"body":"period, in the center of 2016,"},{"startTime":1494.66,"endTime":1496.82,"body":"the person who epitomizes the age"},{"startTime":1496.82,"endTime":1498.95,"body":"of populism most is, of course,"},{"startTime":1498.95,"endTime":1502.319,"body":"that great, orange,"},{"startTime":1498.95,"endTime":1502.319,"body":"grotesque Donald Trump."},{"startTime":1502.319,"endTime":1505.04,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1505.04,"endTime":1510.04,"body":"And we see in his election"},{"startTime":1505.04,"endTime":1510.04,"body":"how all the features"},{"startTime":1510.47,"endTime":1512.15,"body":"that are defined in the 1990s,"},{"startTime":1512.15,"endTime":1514.28,"body":"the five features that I have identified,"},{"startTime":1514.28,"endTime":1515.81,"body":"are beginning to be replaced"},{"startTime":1515.81,"endTime":1518.333,"body":"by a very, very different universe."},{"startTime":1519.302,"endTime":1524.302,"body":"So I talked about the first"},{"startTime":1519.302,"endTime":1524.302,"body":"assumption of this period,"},{"startTime":1524.81,"endTime":1528.11,"body":"which is the idea of consensus,"},{"startTime":1528.11,"endTime":1530.33,"body":"the idea that we agree."},{"startTime":1530.33,"endTime":1531.74,"body":"Remember, I had my fingers in the middle"},{"startTime":1531.74,"endTime":1533.183,"body":"and my elbows at the side."},{"startTime":1534.107,"endTime":1537.683,"body":"But in this new age, starting in 2014,"},{"startTime":1538.7,"endTime":1541.849,"body":"with apologies to Lloyd"},{"startTime":1538.7,"endTime":1541.849,"body":"for the culinary reference,"},{"startTime":1541.849,"endTime":1545.393,"body":"my fingers collapse like the"},{"startTime":1541.849,"endTime":1545.393,"body":"kind of souffle I make at home."},{"startTime":1546.35,"endTime":1550.34,"body":"It becomes, the graph of public"},{"startTime":1546.35,"endTime":1550.34,"body":"opinion becomes a U-shape."},{"startTime":1550.34,"endTime":1552.83,"body":"There are no votes left"},{"startTime":1550.34,"endTime":1552.83,"body":"where my fingers are,"},{"startTime":1552.83,"endTime":1554.9,"body":"and all the votes are now at my elbows."},{"startTime":1554.9,"endTime":1557.75,"body":"The votes have moved to the extremes."},{"startTime":1557.75,"endTime":1559.7,"body":"And this is particularly clear, of course,"},{"startTime":1559.7,"endTime":1561.47,"body":"in Donald Trump in the United States,"},{"startTime":1561.47,"endTime":1563.27,"body":"where the country begins to feel"},{"startTime":1563.27,"endTime":1566.21,"body":"as though it's teetering"},{"startTime":1563.27,"endTime":1566.21,"body":"on the edge of a civil war."},{"startTime":1566.21,"endTime":1568.13,"body":"But actually, it's true with Brexit, too."},{"startTime":1568.13,"endTime":1569.09,"body":"For the first time,"},{"startTime":1569.09,"endTime":1571.989,"body":"we see in the Brexit remain conversations"},{"startTime":1571.989,"endTime":1576.989,"body":"a situation in which"},{"startTime":1571.989,"endTime":1576.989,"body":"half of Brexit voters say"},{"startTime":1580.91,"endTime":1583.82,"body":"in interviews that they"},{"startTime":1580.91,"endTime":1583.82,"body":"would not consider having"},{"startTime":1583.82,"endTime":1585.38,"body":"a conversation with a remainer,"},{"startTime":1585.38,"endTime":1587.99,"body":"and half of remain voters say the same."},{"startTime":1587.99,"endTime":1591.41,"body":"And in fact, in the same"},{"startTime":1587.99,"endTime":1591.41,"body":"polls in this period,"},{"startTime":1591.41,"endTime":1593.66,"body":"only 25% from either camp"},{"startTime":1593.66,"endTime":1596.45,"body":"would consider one of their"},{"startTime":1593.66,"endTime":1596.45,"body":"children marrying somebody"},{"startTime":1596.45,"endTime":1597.953,"body":"who came from the other camp."},{"startTime":1599.78,"endTime":1601.882,"body":"So that's the collapse of consensus."},{"startTime":1601.882,"endTime":1606.2,"body":"The second feature of this"},{"startTime":1601.882,"endTime":1606.2,"body":"phenomenon is, as I said,"},{"startTime":1606.2,"endTime":1609.32,"body":"the necessary connection"},{"startTime":1606.2,"endTime":1609.32,"body":"that seemed to exist"},{"startTime":1609.32,"endTime":1613.4,"body":"between global open free"},{"startTime":1609.32,"endTime":1613.4,"body":"markets and prosperity."},{"startTime":1613.4,"endTime":1615.861,"body":"And this is very much challenged"},{"startTime":1615.861,"endTime":1618.92,"body":"by the emerging populist age."},{"startTime":1618.92,"endTime":1620.18,"body":"Donald Trump, of course,"},{"startTime":1620.18,"endTime":1623.03,"body":"is an avowed out-and-out protectionist."},{"startTime":1623.03,"endTime":1625.864,"body":"He goes into a trade war with China."},{"startTime":1625.864,"endTime":1630.765,"body":"And we are entering an age"},{"startTime":1625.864,"endTime":1630.765,"body":"in which it is assumed,"},{"startTime":1630.765,"endTime":1635.75,"body":"with reason, that 2008 demonstrated"},{"startTime":1635.75,"endTime":1640.55,"body":"that the old liberal"},{"startTime":1635.75,"endTime":1640.55,"body":"market Washington consensus"},{"startTime":1640.55,"endTime":1642.68,"body":"had not delivered for people,"},{"startTime":1642.68,"endTime":1645.14,"body":"and where particularly"},{"startTime":1642.68,"endTime":1645.14,"body":"in Rust Belt communities"},{"startTime":1645.14,"endTime":1647.48,"body":"or in the northeast of England,"},{"startTime":1647.48,"endTime":1648.5,"body":"people are looking"},{"startTime":1648.5,"endTime":1652.07,"body":"for a different form"},{"startTime":1648.5,"endTime":1652.07,"body":"of industrial strategy,"},{"startTime":1652.07,"endTime":1653.6,"body":"a different form of investment,"},{"startTime":1653.6,"endTime":1656.96,"body":"and no longer have"},{"startTime":1653.6,"endTime":1656.96,"body":"confidence in the market"},{"startTime":1656.96,"endTime":1658.52,"body":"to deliver for them in the way"},{"startTime":1658.52,"endTime":1662.033,"body":"that they were led to believe"},{"startTime":1658.52,"endTime":1662.033,"body":"it might in the 1990s."},{"startTime":1663.353,"endTime":1666.05,"body":"The third thing, of course,"},{"startTime":1663.353,"endTime":1666.05,"body":"continues to accelerate."},{"startTime":1666.05,"endTime":1667.1,"body":"I was talking about the link"},{"startTime":1667.1,"endTime":1669.98,"body":"between prosperity and democracy."},{"startTime":1669.98,"endTime":1673.34,"body":"During this period, we see the opposite"},{"startTime":1673.34,"endTime":1674.784,"body":"of what we saw in the 1990s."},{"startTime":1674.784,"endTime":1676.25,"body":"In the 1990s, the number of democracies"},{"startTime":1676.25,"endTime":1678.44,"body":"in the world steeply increases."},{"startTime":1678.44,"endTime":1680.03,"body":"From 2014 onwards,"},{"startTime":1680.03,"endTime":1683.57,"body":"the number of democracies in"},{"startTime":1680.03,"endTime":1683.57,"body":"the world begins to decrease"},{"startTime":1683.57,"endTime":1686.51,"body":"as increasingly around the world,"},{"startTime":1686.51,"endTime":1689.75,"body":"people begin to question"},{"startTime":1686.51,"endTime":1689.75,"body":"the link between prosperity"},{"startTime":1689.75,"endTime":1692.78,"body":"and democracy, and where many voters"},{"startTime":1692.78,"endTime":1694.13,"body":"and certainly many politicians"},{"startTime":1694.13,"endTime":1697.16,"body":"around the world begin to"},{"startTime":1694.13,"endTime":1697.16,"body":"wonder whether prosperity"},{"startTime":1697.16,"endTime":1699.92,"body":"might not be more"},{"startTime":1697.16,"endTime":1699.92,"body":"important than democracy."},{"startTime":1699.92,"endTime":1702.5,"body":"I talked about Latin America."},{"startTime":1702.5,"endTime":1704.63,"body":"A dramatic example of this at the moment"},{"startTime":1704.63,"endTime":1708.23,"body":"is in El Salvador with a president"},{"startTime":1708.23,"endTime":1711.509,"body":"who has managed to not"},{"startTime":1708.23,"endTime":1711.509,"body":"just embrace Bitcoin"},{"startTime":1711.509,"endTime":1713.51,"body":"as his national currency,"},{"startTime":1713.51,"endTime":1717.53,"body":"thus relating to my comments"},{"startTime":1713.51,"endTime":1717.53,"body":"about technology and change,"},{"startTime":1717.53,"endTime":1721.49,"body":"but has also locked up"},{"startTime":1717.53,"endTime":1721.49,"body":"about 5% of his population,"},{"startTime":1721.49,"endTime":1723.71,"body":"imposed an extreme authoritarian rule,"},{"startTime":1723.71,"endTime":1728.71,"body":"and has been rewarded with"},{"startTime":1723.71,"endTime":1728.71,"body":"85% popularity in the ratings."},{"startTime":1729.08,"endTime":1732.11,"body":"We can see it in Saudi Arabia,"},{"startTime":1732.11,"endTime":1735.65,"body":"where Mohammed bin Salman has imposed"},{"startTime":1735.65,"endTime":1739.16,"body":"an extremely authoritarian state,"},{"startTime":1739.16,"endTime":1741.08,"body":"but combined it with the forms"},{"startTime":1741.08,"endTime":1743.18,"body":"of cultural social liberalization,"},{"startTime":1743.18,"endTime":1746.03,"body":"which have allowed women to drive,"},{"startTime":1746.03,"endTime":1749.275,"body":"have led to an explosion"},{"startTime":1746.03,"endTime":1749.275,"body":"of public music festivals,"},{"startTime":1749.275,"endTime":1754.275,"body":"tourism, cafes, restaurants,"},{"startTime":1749.275,"endTime":1754.275,"body":"a cultural transformation,"},{"startTime":1755.72,"endTime":1757.7,"body":"which has not been combined"},{"startTime":1757.7,"endTime":1762.14,"body":"with any changes in human"},{"startTime":1757.7,"endTime":1762.14,"body":"rights, liberal democracy,"},{"startTime":1762.14,"endTime":1765.05,"body":"and where he too has been"},{"startTime":1762.14,"endTime":1765.05,"body":"rewarded at the moment"},{"startTime":1765.05,"endTime":1768.533,"body":"with enormous popularity"},{"startTime":1765.05,"endTime":1768.533,"body":"ratings and economic growth"},{"startTime":1768.533,"endTime":1771.62,"body":"this year of 9.5%."},{"startTime":1771.62,"endTime":1773.03,"body":"It's a country in the G20,"},{"startTime":1773.03,"endTime":1775.82,"body":"soon to be in the top 15"},{"startTime":1773.03,"endTime":1775.82,"body":"economies in the world,"},{"startTime":1775.82,"endTime":1779.48,"body":"and a similar story"},{"startTime":1775.82,"endTime":1779.48,"body":"could be told about UAE."},{"startTime":1779.48,"endTime":1782.27,"body":"In sadder ways, things are beginning"},{"startTime":1782.27,"endTime":1785.363,"body":"to happen in Africa during this period."},{"startTime":1786.8,"endTime":1791.18,"body":"So, we found ourselves pre-2014 period"},{"startTime":1791.18,"endTime":1795.26,"body":"at the back end of this idea"},{"startTime":1791.18,"endTime":1795.26,"body":"of the liberal global order,"},{"startTime":1795.26,"endTime":1797.06,"body":"and you can see it in Francophone Africa,"},{"startTime":1797.06,"endTime":1801.08,"body":"the French deploying troops"},{"startTime":1797.06,"endTime":1801.08,"body":"into places like Mali,"},{"startTime":1801.08,"endTime":1804.56,"body":"advisors into Burkina Faso and"},{"startTime":1801.08,"endTime":1804.56,"body":"the Central African Republic,"},{"startTime":1804.56,"endTime":1807.68,"body":"trying to support"},{"startTime":1804.56,"endTime":1807.68,"body":"pseudo-democratic governments"},{"startTime":1807.68,"endTime":1810.26,"body":"against Islamist insurgency."},{"startTime":1810.26,"endTime":1814.115,"body":"By today, all those"},{"startTime":1810.26,"endTime":1814.115,"body":"situations have flipped over."},{"startTime":1814.115,"endTime":1815.9,"body":"The French have been thrown"},{"startTime":1815.9,"endTime":1817.942,"body":"out of those countries in the Sahel,"},{"startTime":1817.942,"endTime":1820.349,"body":"military coups have happened,"},{"startTime":1820.349,"endTime":1822.611,"body":"and these new military juntas"},{"startTime":1822.611,"endTime":1826.79,"body":"in the Central African Republic,"},{"startTime":1822.611,"endTime":1826.79,"body":"in Mali, in Burkina Faso,"},{"startTime":1826.79,"endTime":1828.5,"body":"most recently in Sudan,"},{"startTime":1828.5,"endTime":1831.515,"body":"are beginning to turn to"},{"startTime":1828.5,"endTime":1831.515,"body":"Russian Wagner mercenaries"},{"startTime":1831.515,"endTime":1833.54,"body":"to come and provide the support"},{"startTime":1833.54,"endTime":1836.693,"body":"that they previously would"},{"startTime":1833.54,"endTime":1836.693,"body":"have received from the West."},{"startTime":1838.866,"endTime":1841.7,"body":"The fourth point, legitimacy,"},{"startTime":1841.7,"endTime":1843.71,"body":"the moral legitimacy of the West."},{"startTime":1843.71,"endTime":1846.62,"body":"Well, the attacks on the moral"},{"startTime":1843.71,"endTime":1846.62,"body":"legitimacy of the West have,"},{"startTime":1846.62,"endTime":1850.7,"body":"of course, accelerated, but"},{"startTime":1846.62,"endTime":1850.7,"body":"it helps the populist cause,"},{"startTime":1850.7,"endTime":1852.47,"body":"because fundamentally, populism,"},{"startTime":1852.47,"endTime":1855.35,"body":"whether under Donald Trump"},{"startTime":1852.47,"endTime":1855.35,"body":"or under Boris Johnson,"},{"startTime":1855.35,"endTime":1859.654,"body":"is a narrative of the"},{"startTime":1855.35,"endTime":1859.654,"body":"people against the elite."},{"startTime":1859.654,"endTime":1862.655,"body":"And the more that the"},{"startTime":1859.654,"endTime":1862.655,"body":"elite is discredited,"},{"startTime":1862.655,"endTime":1867.41,"body":"the more the elite is"},{"startTime":1862.655,"endTime":1867.41,"body":"made to seem selfish,"},{"startTime":1867.41,"endTime":1869.72,"body":"in the words of Occupy Wall Street,"},{"startTime":1869.72,"endTime":1874.22,"body":"the 1%, the out of touch, the corrupt,"},{"startTime":1874.22,"endTime":1876.47,"body":"the more it suits the populist cause,"},{"startTime":1876.47,"endTime":1879.23,"body":"the easier it is for politicians"},{"startTime":1879.23,"endTime":1883.43,"body":"in Poland or Hungary to"},{"startTime":1879.23,"endTime":1883.43,"body":"seem to stand for the real,"},{"startTime":1883.43,"endTime":1887.573,"body":"pure national people against"},{"startTime":1883.43,"endTime":1887.573,"body":"this discredited elite."},{"startTime":1888.629,"endTime":1891.29,"body":"But it's also true that the crack"},{"startTime":1891.29,"endTime":1894.56,"body":"between prosperity and"},{"startTime":1891.29,"endTime":1894.56,"body":"democracy also means"},{"startTime":1894.56,"endTime":1896.21,"body":"that the same populists"},{"startTime":1896.21,"endTime":1899.81,"body":"are able to challenge"},{"startTime":1896.21,"endTime":1899.81,"body":"their own constitutions."},{"startTime":1899.81,"endTime":1903.11,"body":"There is a degradation"},{"startTime":1899.81,"endTime":1903.11,"body":"of democratic practice."},{"startTime":1903.11,"endTime":1905.223,"body":"We can see it in microcosm in Britain,"},{"startTime":1905.223,"endTime":1907.55,"body":"but in much more dramatic forms,"},{"startTime":1907.55,"endTime":1909.77,"body":"of course, with the January 6th uprising"},{"startTime":1909.77,"endTime":1910.603,"body":"in the United States."},{"startTime":1910.603,"endTime":1913.214,"body":"But in microcosm, you can"},{"startTime":1910.603,"endTime":1913.214,"body":"see it even in Britain."},{"startTime":1913.214,"endTime":1914.69,"body":"You can see it in the way"},{"startTime":1914.69,"endTime":1918.05,"body":"that Boris Johnson set out consistently"},{"startTime":1918.05,"endTime":1921.17,"body":"to undermine most of the unwritten rules"},{"startTime":1921.17,"endTime":1923.93,"body":"that governed the way in which parliament"},{"startTime":1923.93,"endTime":1925.76,"body":"and our democracy worked."},{"startTime":1925.76,"endTime":1927.86,"body":"He started first by challenging"},{"startTime":1927.86,"endTime":1929.653,"body":"the way the Conservative Party worked."},{"startTime":1929.653,"endTime":1933.246,"body":"Harold Macmillan elected"},{"startTime":1929.653,"endTime":1933.246,"body":"as conservative leader,"},{"startTime":1933.246,"endTime":1937.1,"body":"1950s, makes a great acceptance speech"},{"startTime":1937.1,"endTime":1940.13,"body":"in which he says he will not even consider"},{"startTime":1940.13,"endTime":1942.95,"body":"the idea of purging or eliminating people"},{"startTime":1942.95,"endTime":1944.24,"body":"from the left or the right."},{"startTime":1944.24,"endTime":1946.54,"body":"He says the Conservative Party is,"},{"startTime":1946.54,"endTime":1948.164,"body":"in one of his great metaphors,"},{"startTime":1948.164,"endTime":1952.418,"body":"fed by many tributaries"},{"startTime":1948.164,"endTime":1952.418,"body":"into a great stream."},{"startTime":1952.418,"endTime":1955.13,"body":"I embrace left and right,"},{"startTime":1955.13,"endTime":1957.68,"body":"and I will want them on my"},{"startTime":1955.13,"endTime":1957.68,"body":"left hand and my right hand,"},{"startTime":1957.68,"endTime":1959.15,"body":"and we'll march forward together."},{"startTime":1959.15,"endTime":1961.452,"body":"This was not the vision"},{"startTime":1959.15,"endTime":1961.452,"body":"of Boris Johnson, right?"},{"startTime":1961.452,"endTime":1962.285,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1962.285,"endTime":1963.68,"body":"Boris Johnson's vision instead"},{"startTime":1963.68,"endTime":1968.06,"body":"was to take power and"},{"startTime":1963.68,"endTime":1968.06,"body":"immediately expel 21 members"},{"startTime":1968.06,"endTime":1970.79,"body":"of the Conservative Party from parliament"},{"startTime":1970.79,"endTime":1972.65,"body":"because they happened to represent"},{"startTime":1972.65,"endTime":1974.0,"body":"a different one-nation tradition,"},{"startTime":1974.0,"endTime":1977.27,"body":"and these people included, you"},{"startTime":1974.0,"endTime":1977.27,"body":"know, Churchill's grandson,"},{"startTime":1977.27,"endTime":1979.343,"body":"included Ken Clark, who'd held almost"},{"startTime":1979.343,"endTime":1981.17,"body":"all the great offices of states"},{"startTime":1981.17,"endTime":1983.0,"body":"and had been a conservative"},{"startTime":1981.17,"endTime":1983.0,"body":"leadership candidate,"},{"startTime":1983.0,"endTime":1984.68,"body":"been in every conservative government"},{"startTime":1984.68,"endTime":1987.776,"body":"from the 1970s onwards,"},{"startTime":1984.68,"endTime":1987.776,"body":"is thrown out the door."},{"startTime":1987.776,"endTime":1990.71,"body":"He then proceeds to try"},{"startTime":1987.776,"endTime":1990.71,"body":"to prorogue parliament,"},{"startTime":1990.71,"endTime":1992.81,"body":"try to lock the door on parliament"},{"startTime":1992.81,"endTime":1995.51,"body":"in order to drive through"},{"startTime":1992.81,"endTime":1995.51,"body":"his particular policies."},{"startTime":1995.51,"endTime":1997.76,"body":"He's then challenged by the Supreme Court"},{"startTime":1997.76,"endTime":1999.62,"body":"that forces him to reopen parliament,"},{"startTime":1999.62,"endTime":2001.99,"body":"and instead of making a speech of the sort"},{"startTime":2001.99,"endTime":2004.148,"body":"that David Cameron"},{"startTime":2001.99,"endTime":2004.148,"body":"probably would have made"},{"startTime":2004.148,"endTime":2005.854,"body":"or Tony Blair would have made,"},{"startTime":2005.854,"endTime":2008.38,"body":"which is sort of grudging"},{"startTime":2005.854,"endTime":2008.38,"body":"deference to the rule of law,"},{"startTime":2008.38,"endTime":2012.7,"body":"acceptance to Supreme Court,"},{"startTime":2008.38,"endTime":2012.7,"body":"he stands up and spits fury,"},{"startTime":2012.7,"endTime":2015.25,"body":"talks about the people against the elite,"},{"startTime":2015.25,"endTime":2017.68,"body":"talks about how the"},{"startTime":2015.25,"endTime":2017.68,"body":"Supreme Court is wrong,"},{"startTime":2017.68,"endTime":2018.82,"body":"talks about how the whole thing"},{"startTime":2018.82,"endTime":2020.5,"body":"is a disgusting conspiracy"},{"startTime":2020.5,"endTime":2022.87,"body":"to try to prevent the will of the people."},{"startTime":2022.87,"endTime":2027.04,"body":"And notice, in this rhetoric,"},{"startTime":2022.87,"endTime":2027.04,"body":"the will of the people is not,"},{"startTime":2027.04,"endTime":2028.854,"body":"of course, all the people."},{"startTime":2028.854,"endTime":2032.86,"body":"It's barely a majority of the"},{"startTime":2028.854,"endTime":2032.86,"body":"people in most of these cases,"},{"startTime":2032.86,"endTime":2035.923,"body":"but it's nevertheless"},{"startTime":2032.86,"endTime":2035.923,"body":"represented as the people."},{"startTime":2037.617,"endTime":2039.52,"body":"You can see it also, actually,"},{"startTime":2039.52,"endTime":2041.8,"body":"in the development of"},{"startTime":2039.52,"endTime":2041.8,"body":"conflict of interest,"},{"startTime":2041.8,"endTime":2044.56,"body":"the degradation of the ministerial code."},{"startTime":2044.56,"endTime":2046.96,"body":"Again, Britain is a minor example of this,"},{"startTime":2046.96,"endTime":2050.32,"body":"but remember when he's challenged"},{"startTime":2046.96,"endTime":2050.32,"body":"for lying in parliament,"},{"startTime":2050.32,"endTime":2052.27,"body":"and someone points out"},{"startTime":2050.32,"endTime":2052.27,"body":"this is in contravention"},{"startTime":2052.27,"endTime":2054.04,"body":"of the ministerial code,"},{"startTime":2054.04,"endTime":2056.44,"body":"his solution is to rewrite"},{"startTime":2054.04,"endTime":2056.44,"body":"the ministerial code"},{"startTime":2056.44,"endTime":2058.96,"body":"to make it no longer necessary to resign"},{"startTime":2058.96,"endTime":2060.703,"body":"if you lie to parliament."},{"startTime":2061.75,"endTime":2065.21,"body":"But, of course, much more"},{"startTime":2061.75,"endTime":2065.21,"body":"dramatic form in Poland,"},{"startTime":2065.21,"endTime":2069.19,"body":"where we really do see the"},{"startTime":2065.21,"endTime":2069.19,"body":"judges appointed by parliament"},{"startTime":2069.19,"endTime":2070.75,"body":"and the parliamentary commissions,"},{"startTime":2070.75,"endTime":2072.04,"body":"the judicial commissions,"},{"startTime":2072.04,"endTime":2074.89,"body":"completely excluded by"},{"startTime":2072.04,"endTime":2074.89,"body":"the Law and Justice Party,"},{"startTime":2074.89,"endTime":2077.77,"body":"bringing Poland into a deep, deep conflict"},{"startTime":2077.77,"endTime":2078.97,"body":"with the European Union."},{"startTime":2078.97,"endTime":2081.49,"body":"We can see it in Hungary"},{"startTime":2078.97,"endTime":2081.49,"body":"with the development,"},{"startTime":2081.49,"endTime":2084.19,"body":"essentially the absorption"},{"startTime":2081.49,"endTime":2084.19,"body":"of the state media,"},{"startTime":2084.19,"endTime":2085.99,"body":"the closing of universities,"},{"startTime":2085.99,"endTime":2087.44,"body":"and we can see it, of course,"},{"startTime":2088.383,"endTime":2091.164,"body":"in much more dramatic"},{"startTime":2088.383,"endTime":2091.164,"body":"form in India, in Brazil,"},{"startTime":2091.164,"endTime":2093.733,"body":"and, of course, in Trump's United States."},{"startTime":2095.001,"endTime":2097.63,"body":"And then the final thing"},{"startTime":2095.001,"endTime":2097.63,"body":"that comes out of this is,"},{"startTime":2097.63,"endTime":2101.68,"body":"of course, the question of"},{"startTime":2097.63,"endTime":2101.68,"body":"the liberal world order."},{"startTime":2101.68,"endTime":2103.45,"body":"That was the fifth of my things."},{"startTime":2103.45,"endTime":2104.95,"body":"And during this period,"},{"startTime":2104.95,"endTime":2108.73,"body":"the liberal world order collapses really"},{"startTime":2108.73,"endTime":2110.678,"body":"because the other facet,"},{"startTime":2110.678,"endTime":2115.678,"body":"the other facet of populism in"},{"startTime":2110.678,"endTime":2115.678,"body":"its new form is isolationism."},{"startTime":2117.01,"endTime":2120.742,"body":"We move into a world in"},{"startTime":2117.01,"endTime":2120.742,"body":"which we are retreating."},{"startTime":2120.742,"endTime":2122.53,"body":"One indication of this,"},{"startTime":2122.53,"endTime":2124.0,"body":"and there are many, many"},{"startTime":2122.53,"endTime":2124.0,"body":"indications of this,"},{"startTime":2124.0,"endTime":2126.25,"body":"but one dramatic indication of this"},{"startTime":2126.25,"endTime":2128.59,"body":"is the cutting of"},{"startTime":2126.25,"endTime":2128.59,"body":"international aid budgets"},{"startTime":2128.59,"endTime":2130.18,"body":"around the world."},{"startTime":2130.18,"endTime":2133.3,"body":"When I was the Africa minister,"},{"startTime":2133.3,"endTime":2138.3,"body":"I had a bilateral development"},{"startTime":2133.3,"endTime":2138.3,"body":"budget of about $4.5 billion."},{"startTime":2138.494,"endTime":2141.46,"body":"Today, my equivalent would have in the UK,"},{"startTime":2141.46,"endTime":2143.863,"body":"and I wasn't the Africa"},{"startTime":2141.46,"endTime":2143.863,"body":"minister that long ago,"},{"startTime":2145.36,"endTime":2149.92,"body":"2018 to today, would have a"},{"startTime":2145.36,"endTime":2149.92,"body":"budget of about $1 billion."},{"startTime":2149.92,"endTime":2151.106,"body":"It's about a quarter."},{"startTime":2151.106,"endTime":2153.97,"body":"The rest of that money"},{"startTime":2151.106,"endTime":2153.97,"body":"has either been cut,"},{"startTime":2153.97,"endTime":2156.209,"body":"the 0.7% commitment's"},{"startTime":2153.97,"endTime":2156.209,"body":"been cut down to 0.5%,"},{"startTime":2156.209,"endTime":2159.625,"body":"or it's been diverted into"},{"startTime":2156.209,"endTime":2159.625,"body":"looking after refugees"},{"startTime":2159.625,"endTime":2161.23,"body":"in the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":2161.23,"endTime":2163.96,"body":"And the same situation"},{"startTime":2161.23,"endTime":2163.96,"body":"is happening in Sweden,"},{"startTime":2163.96,"endTime":2166.51,"body":"the same situation is happening in Norway,"},{"startTime":2166.51,"endTime":2169.197,"body":"and the United States is about"},{"startTime":2166.51,"endTime":2169.197,"body":"to announce enormous cuts"},{"startTime":2169.197,"endTime":2171.444,"body":"to its international humanitarian spend,"},{"startTime":2171.444,"endTime":2173.046,"body":"having held the burden"},{"startTime":2173.046,"endTime":2175.75,"body":"that the rest of the world was dropping."},{"startTime":2175.75,"endTime":2179.8,"body":"And this isolationism"},{"startTime":2175.75,"endTime":2179.8,"body":"is driven by two things."},{"startTime":2179.8,"endTime":2183.25,"body":"It's driven by the right"},{"startTime":2179.8,"endTime":2183.25,"body":"increasingly thinking"},{"startTime":2183.25,"endTime":2185.95,"body":"it's none of our business, we"},{"startTime":2183.25,"endTime":2185.95,"body":"don't care about them anyway,"},{"startTime":2185.95,"endTime":2188.64,"body":"and by the left feeling so guilty"},{"startTime":2188.64,"endTime":2190.87,"body":"that they feel all we do is cause trouble"},{"startTime":2190.87,"endTime":2191.95,"body":"everywhere we go in the world"},{"startTime":2191.95,"endTime":2193.57,"body":"and maybe we shouldn't"},{"startTime":2191.95,"endTime":2193.57,"body":"get involved at all."},{"startTime":2193.57,"endTime":2195.4,"body":"Meanwhile, the number of people"},{"startTime":2195.4,"endTime":2196.81,"body":"in extreme poverty in Africa"},{"startTime":2196.81,"endTime":2199.417,"body":"has gone from 170 million in 1980"},{"startTime":2199.417,"endTime":2202.21,"body":"to 470 million people today,"},{"startTime":2202.21,"endTime":2204.797,"body":"and yet do you hear"},{"startTime":2202.21,"endTime":2204.797,"body":"anybody talking any more"},{"startTime":2204.797,"endTime":2206.622,"body":"about ending poverty,"},{"startTime":2206.622,"endTime":2210.16,"body":"are there any more live aid"},{"startTime":2206.622,"endTime":2210.16,"body":"concerts, nothing of the sort."},{"startTime":2210.16,"endTime":2214.45,"body":"Instead, donations to Red Nose Day goes"},{"startTime":2214.45,"endTime":2216.13,"body":"from 30 million during my period,"},{"startTime":2216.13,"endTime":2216.963,"body":"rises to 100 million,"},{"startTime":2216.963,"endTime":2219.7,"body":"and has now dropped down"},{"startTime":2216.963,"endTime":2219.7,"body":"to 30 million again."},{"startTime":2219.7,"endTime":2223.57,"body":"That's a single indication of"},{"startTime":2219.7,"endTime":2223.57,"body":"this move towards isolation"},{"startTime":2223.57,"endTime":2225.61,"body":"and away from our global responsibilities."},{"startTime":2225.61,"endTime":2228.85,"body":"Now, I promised Aristotle,"},{"startTime":2228.85,"endTime":2231.823,"body":"and I'm bringing Aristotle"},{"startTime":2228.85,"endTime":2231.823,"body":"and hope to conclude."},{"startTime":2233.71,"endTime":2237.13,"body":"How do we begin to respond to this?"},{"startTime":2237.13,"endTime":2239.2,"body":"Well, the traditional way of responding"},{"startTime":2239.2,"endTime":2241.12,"body":"to this would be within"},{"startTime":2241.12,"endTime":2246.12,"body":"a classic enlightenment"},{"startTime":2241.12,"endTime":2246.12,"body":"utilitarian perspective,"},{"startTime":2248.08,"endTime":2249.55,"body":"and that was basically the way"},{"startTime":2249.55,"endTime":2252.7,"body":"in which we saw the world in the 1990s."},{"startTime":2252.7,"endTime":2256.33,"body":"We had an idea that there"},{"startTime":2252.7,"endTime":2256.33,"body":"was a relatively simple world"},{"startTime":2256.33,"endTime":2259.39,"body":"which was not particularly"},{"startTime":2256.33,"endTime":2259.39,"body":"concerned with moral values,"},{"startTime":2259.39,"endTime":2262.57,"body":"was fundamentally governed by economists,"},{"startTime":2262.57,"endTime":2266.285,"body":"and had a very clear idea"},{"startTime":2262.57,"endTime":2266.285,"body":"of means ends calculations"},{"startTime":2266.285,"endTime":2269.774,"body":"and actually a relatively"},{"startTime":2266.285,"endTime":2269.774,"body":"Machiavellian world view."},{"startTime":2269.774,"endTime":2272.74,"body":"This is then developed by the populace"},{"startTime":2272.74,"endTime":2274.3,"body":"into a much coarser"},{"startTime":2274.3,"endTime":2277.928,"body":"and more extreme Machiavellian world view"},{"startTime":2277.928,"endTime":2281.53,"body":"in which the end clearly"},{"startTime":2277.928,"endTime":2281.53,"body":"justifies the means"},{"startTime":2281.53,"endTime":2283.93,"body":"and most of the moral qualms begin"},{"startTime":2283.93,"endTime":2285.31,"body":"to get shifted aside."},{"startTime":2285.31,"endTime":2289.99,"body":"In fact, many of the populace"},{"startTime":2285.31,"endTime":2289.99,"body":"leaders portray themselves"},{"startTime":2289.99,"endTime":2292.39,"body":"as unashamed rogues."},{"startTime":2292.39,"endTime":2294.79,"body":"They're able to create these"},{"startTime":2292.39,"endTime":2294.79,"body":"very curious coalitions"},{"startTime":2294.79,"endTime":2296.71,"body":"where they can get religious voters voting"},{"startTime":2296.71,"endTime":2301.54,"body":"for them despite being flamboyantly"},{"startTime":2296.71,"endTime":2301.54,"body":"adulterous, mendacious,"},{"startTime":2303.541,"endTime":2305.263,"body":"and the rest."},{"startTime":2307.238,"endTime":2311.14,"body":"And what they seem to"},{"startTime":2307.238,"endTime":2311.14,"body":"reveal appears at first"},{"startTime":2311.14,"endTime":2313.21,"body":"to be a lesson from Aristotle."},{"startTime":2313.21,"endTime":2315.67,"body":"It appears at first that"},{"startTime":2313.21,"endTime":2315.67,"body":"the populace are the people"},{"startTime":2315.67,"endTime":2317.137,"body":"who understand Aristotle"},{"startTime":2317.137,"endTime":2319.51,"body":"because what the populace understand"},{"startTime":2319.51,"endTime":2321.04,"body":"is that one of the problems"},{"startTime":2321.04,"endTime":2325.636,"body":"that has hit the liberal"},{"startTime":2321.04,"endTime":2325.636,"body":"democratic consensus in the 1990s"},{"startTime":2325.636,"endTime":2329.29,"body":"is that it's unbelievably boring."},{"startTime":2329.29,"endTime":2331.81,"body":"The 1990s is actually characterized"},{"startTime":2331.81,"endTime":2335.53,"body":"by a world in which because"},{"startTime":2331.81,"endTime":2335.53,"body":"everything had been sorted,"},{"startTime":2335.53,"endTime":2339.25,"body":"because we knew how markets"},{"startTime":2335.53,"endTime":2339.25,"body":"created economic growth,"},{"startTime":2339.25,"endTime":2342.13,"body":"because we knew that economic"},{"startTime":2339.25,"endTime":2342.13,"body":"growth created democracy,"},{"startTime":2342.13,"endTime":2345.1,"body":"because we knew that history had ended,"},{"startTime":2345.1,"endTime":2348.58,"body":"a lot of politics in the"},{"startTime":2345.1,"endTime":2348.58,"body":"center ground in this period"},{"startTime":2348.58,"endTime":2351.31,"body":"is largely a process"},{"startTime":2348.58,"endTime":2351.31,"body":"of finding a think tank"},{"startTime":2351.31,"endTime":2354.4,"body":"who's done a little study on"},{"startTime":2351.31,"endTime":2354.4,"body":"something happening in Sweden"},{"startTime":2354.4,"endTime":2356.59,"body":"and then trying to import best practice"},{"startTime":2356.59,"endTime":2359.759,"body":"and capacity building"},{"startTime":2356.59,"endTime":2359.759,"body":"into your civil service."},{"startTime":2359.759,"endTime":2362.08,"body":"Because fundamentally the idea"},{"startTime":2362.08,"endTime":2364.298,"body":"is that all the big"},{"startTime":2362.08,"endTime":2364.298,"body":"issues have been solved"},{"startTime":2364.298,"endTime":2366.25,"body":"and all that's required really"},{"startTime":2366.25,"endTime":2368.35,"body":"is a good managerial technique"},{"startTime":2368.35,"endTime":2370.51,"body":"and a prime ministerial delivery unit"},{"startTime":2370.51,"endTime":2373.333,"body":"to drive through the kind"},{"startTime":2370.51,"endTime":2373.333,"body":"of change that you need."},{"startTime":2374.23,"endTime":2377.41,"body":"But Aristotle points out"},{"startTime":2374.23,"endTime":2377.41,"body":"that political communication"},{"startTime":2377.41,"endTime":2380.532,"body":"cannot just be about what he calls logos,"},{"startTime":2380.532,"endTime":2383.86,"body":"cannot just be about"},{"startTime":2380.532,"endTime":2383.86,"body":"the rational argument."},{"startTime":2383.86,"endTime":2385.81,"body":"It requires two other things as well."},{"startTime":2385.81,"endTime":2390.81,"body":"It requires pathos, which is"},{"startTime":2385.81,"endTime":2390.81,"body":"emotion, and it requires ethos,"},{"startTime":2390.82,"endTime":2392.923,"body":"which is the sense of character."},{"startTime":2393.76,"endTime":2396.396,"body":"And of course what the populace do so well"},{"startTime":2396.396,"endTime":2400.75,"body":"is to do the pathos bit or"},{"startTime":2396.396,"endTime":2400.75,"body":"some version of the pathos bit."},{"startTime":2400.75,"endTime":2402.275,"body":"They're unbelievably good"},{"startTime":2402.275,"endTime":2406.09,"body":"at finding how to get the"},{"startTime":2402.275,"endTime":2406.09,"body":"great slogans going again,"},{"startTime":2406.09,"endTime":2408.97,"body":"dust them off the shelf"},{"startTime":2406.09,"endTime":2408.97,"body":"where the technocrats"},{"startTime":2408.97,"endTime":2410.17,"body":"and the centrists have left them,"},{"startTime":2410.17,"endTime":2412.84,"body":"bring back words like patriotism,"},{"startTime":2412.84,"endTime":2416.023,"body":"nation, liberty, sacrifice."},{"startTime":2416.941,"endTime":2419.722,"body":"And above all, the secret really"},{"startTime":2419.722,"endTime":2422.17,"body":"of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump"},{"startTime":2422.17,"endTime":2423.28,"body":"is they bring back something"},{"startTime":2423.28,"endTime":2424.93,"body":"that all the other"},{"startTime":2423.28,"endTime":2424.93,"body":"politicians are lacking,"},{"startTime":2424.93,"endTime":2426.762,"body":"which is a sense of humor."},{"startTime":2426.762,"endTime":2431.29,"body":"They're terrible human"},{"startTime":2426.762,"endTime":2431.29,"body":"beings, but they are funnier"},{"startTime":2431.29,"endTime":2432.123,"body":"than the other lot,"},{"startTime":2432.123,"endTime":2435.373,"body":"and this is part of their secret power."},{"startTime":2437.384,"endTime":2439.69,"body":"However, what Aristotle suggests,"},{"startTime":2439.69,"endTime":2442.512,"body":"and I'm going to finish with"},{"startTime":2439.69,"endTime":2442.512,"body":"five Aristotelian concepts"},{"startTime":2442.512,"endTime":2444.127,"body":"because I talk in fives."},{"startTime":2444.127,"endTime":2445.99,"body":"I don't know why I talk in fives now."},{"startTime":2445.99,"endTime":2448.48,"body":"Maybe I'd be better talking in threes."},{"startTime":2448.48,"endTime":2451.0,"body":"So I want you to think about"},{"startTime":2448.48,"endTime":2451.0,"body":"five Aristotelian concepts."},{"startTime":2451.0,"endTime":2454.06,"body":"I want you to think about those"},{"startTime":2451.0,"endTime":2454.06,"body":"three rhetorical concepts,"},{"startTime":2454.06,"endTime":2457.033,"body":"the idea of logos, pathos, and ethos."},{"startTime":2458.35,"endTime":2461.918,"body":"I want you to think"},{"startTime":2458.35,"endTime":2461.918,"body":"about the notion of hope,"},{"startTime":2461.918,"endTime":2463.96,"body":"which in Greek is called elpis,"},{"startTime":2463.96,"endTime":2468.25,"body":"but particularly in Aristotle"},{"startTime":2463.96,"endTime":2468.25,"body":"is eualpis, good hope,"},{"startTime":2468.25,"endTime":2471.77,"body":"and I want you to think about"},{"startTime":2468.25,"endTime":2471.77,"body":"his notion of eudaimonia,"},{"startTime":2471.77,"endTime":2473.08,"body":"a particular Aristotelian notion"},{"startTime":2473.08,"endTime":2474.643,"body":"of happiness or flourishing."},{"startTime":2475.679,"endTime":2479.17,"body":"What I think he would"},{"startTime":2475.679,"endTime":2479.17,"body":"say to our predicament,"},{"startTime":2479.17,"endTime":2482.047,"body":"and I understand I don't"},{"startTime":2479.17,"endTime":2482.047,"body":"have, luckily for you,"},{"startTime":2482.047,"endTime":2486.28,"body":"four hours to talk about all"},{"startTime":2482.047,"endTime":2486.28,"body":"the problems in this argument,"},{"startTime":2486.28,"endTime":2488.59,"body":"and I'd like to point out"},{"startTime":2486.28,"endTime":2488.59,"body":"that there is a big problem"},{"startTime":2488.59,"endTime":2491.32,"body":"with taking somebody who"},{"startTime":2488.59,"endTime":2491.32,"body":"lived in ancient Athens"},{"startTime":2491.32,"endTime":2493.39,"body":"and applying him to the current day."},{"startTime":2493.39,"endTime":2495.635,"body":"For example, he didn't have an iPhone,"},{"startTime":2495.635,"endTime":2498.247,"body":"and he wasn't aware of social media"},{"startTime":2498.247,"endTime":2501.107,"body":"and the developments of"},{"startTime":2498.247,"endTime":2501.107,"body":"the global market system,"},{"startTime":2501.107,"endTime":2502.99,"body":"and he wasn't particularly attuned"},{"startTime":2502.99,"endTime":2505.84,"body":"to artificial intelligence,"},{"startTime":2502.99,"endTime":2505.84,"body":"so take that as read."},{"startTime":2505.84,"endTime":2509.2,"body":"However, I think there is"},{"startTime":2505.84,"endTime":2509.2,"body":"something very interesting"},{"startTime":2509.2,"endTime":2511.72,"body":"in the way Aristotle approaches the world,"},{"startTime":2511.72,"endTime":2513.82,"body":"which provides an antidote"},{"startTime":2513.82,"endTime":2517.827,"body":"to what was bad about the"},{"startTime":2513.82,"endTime":2517.827,"body":"smug consensus of the 1990s"},{"startTime":2517.827,"endTime":2522.01,"body":"and is also an antidote to"},{"startTime":2517.827,"endTime":2522.01,"body":"what is deeply disturbing,"},{"startTime":2522.01,"endTime":2524.2,"body":"immoral, and in some ways horrifying"},{"startTime":2524.2,"endTime":2526.723,"body":"about the age of populism, as follows."},{"startTime":2527.95,"endTime":2529.66,"body":"He would say, firstly,"},{"startTime":2529.66,"endTime":2532.84,"body":"that in order to deal with"},{"startTime":2529.66,"endTime":2532.84,"body":"an age of polarization,"},{"startTime":2532.84,"endTime":2535.39,"body":"my souffle, with the votes at the elbows"},{"startTime":2535.39,"endTime":2536.92,"body":"and not in the center,"},{"startTime":2536.92,"endTime":2540.55,"body":"we need to understand"},{"startTime":2536.92,"endTime":2540.55,"body":"that the notion of pathos,"},{"startTime":2540.55,"endTime":2542.263,"body":"the notion of emotion,"},{"startTime":2542.263,"endTime":2547.227,"body":"needs to find what Aristotle"},{"startTime":2542.263,"endTime":2547.227,"body":"would call the golden mean,"},{"startTime":2549.323,"endTime":2554.05,"body":"the intermediate state, the"},{"startTime":2549.323,"endTime":2554.05,"body":"moderation between two extremes,"},{"startTime":2554.05,"endTime":2556.417,"body":"and those two extremes are, of course,"},{"startTime":2556.417,"endTime":2561.417,"body":"the boring technocratic"},{"startTime":2556.417,"endTime":2561.417,"body":"fantasies of the centrists"},{"startTime":2561.449,"endTime":2565.06,"body":"and the hysterical"},{"startTime":2561.449,"endTime":2565.06,"body":"emotions of the populists,"},{"startTime":2565.06,"endTime":2567.743,"body":"and that intermediate state finds itself"},{"startTime":2567.743,"endTime":2570.13,"body":"in the word empathy."},{"startTime":2570.13,"endTime":2573.13,"body":"The point about empathy,"},{"startTime":2570.13,"endTime":2573.13,"body":"the emotion of empathy,"},{"startTime":2573.13,"endTime":2574.66,"body":"is that it's emotion directed"},{"startTime":2574.66,"endTime":2576.373,"body":"towards understanding the other,"},{"startTime":2577.24,"endTime":2580.18,"body":"towards moving from this towards that."},{"startTime":2580.18,"endTime":2583.48,"body":"Absolutely central,"},{"startTime":2580.18,"endTime":2583.48,"body":"because the core values"},{"startTime":2583.48,"endTime":2587.32,"body":"of our democracies lies"},{"startTime":2583.48,"endTime":2587.32,"body":"in the idea of compromise,"},{"startTime":2587.32,"endTime":2588.925,"body":"lies in the idea of equality,"},{"startTime":2588.925,"endTime":2591.16,"body":"the moral equality of human beings,"},{"startTime":2591.16,"endTime":2594.01,"body":"which requires that we do not say"},{"startTime":2594.01,"endTime":2598.24,"body":"that only 25% of us can countenance"},{"startTime":2598.24,"endTime":2601.308,"body":"our children marrying"},{"startTime":2598.24,"endTime":2601.308,"body":"somebody from the other side."},{"startTime":2601.308,"endTime":2606.308,"body":"Empathy requires understanding"},{"startTime":2601.308,"endTime":2606.308,"body":"these alternative positions."},{"startTime":2606.91,"endTime":2608.023,"body":"That's the pathos bit."},{"startTime":2608.957,"endTime":2612.25,"body":"The second thing that"},{"startTime":2608.957,"endTime":2612.25,"body":"obviously needs to be addressed"},{"startTime":2612.25,"endTime":2614.62,"body":"in my story is the story"},{"startTime":2612.25,"endTime":2614.62,"body":"about the connection"},{"startTime":2614.62,"endTime":2617.47,"body":"between a particular market"},{"startTime":2614.62,"endTime":2617.47,"body":"system and economic growth,"},{"startTime":2617.47,"endTime":2619.39,"body":"and here I think we need to look"},{"startTime":2619.39,"endTime":2622.66,"body":"at the Aristotelian notion of logos,"},{"startTime":2622.66,"endTime":2627.66,"body":"but the point about"},{"startTime":2622.66,"endTime":2627.66,"body":"Aristotelian logos is it avoids,"},{"startTime":2628.047,"endTime":2632.23,"body":"on the one hand, the problem"},{"startTime":2628.047,"endTime":2632.23,"body":"of the centrists of the 90s,"},{"startTime":2632.23,"endTime":2636.61,"body":"which is the problem of"},{"startTime":2632.23,"endTime":2636.61,"body":"universalizing abstraction,"},{"startTime":2636.61,"endTime":2641.29,"body":"jargon, and avoids, of"},{"startTime":2636.61,"endTime":2641.29,"body":"course, the deep irrationality"},{"startTime":2641.29,"endTime":2643.99,"body":"and the refusal to engage with facts,"},{"startTime":2643.99,"endTime":2646.93,"body":"which is so characteristic"},{"startTime":2643.99,"endTime":2646.93,"body":"of the populists."},{"startTime":2646.93,"endTime":2651.22,"body":"Instead, Aristotelian logos is embedded."},{"startTime":2651.22,"endTime":2653.92,"body":"It's a practice of practical reason,"},{"startTime":2653.92,"endTime":2655.36,"body":"practical reason which takes"},{"startTime":2655.36,"endTime":2657.88,"body":"into account the place you're in,"},{"startTime":2657.88,"endTime":2659.62,"body":"the historical moment you're in,"},{"startTime":2659.62,"endTime":2661.6,"body":"the constraints that you face,"},{"startTime":2661.6,"endTime":2663.933,"body":"the moral context in which you operate,"},{"startTime":2663.933,"endTime":2667.33,"body":"and which begins to move away"},{"startTime":2667.33,"endTime":2670.33,"body":"from saying to somebody in"},{"startTime":2667.33,"endTime":2670.33,"body":"the northeast of England,"},{"startTime":2670.33,"endTime":2672.545,"body":"you don't fit the market system,"},{"startTime":2672.545,"endTime":2676.33,"body":"and therefore either you're"},{"startTime":2672.545,"endTime":2676.33,"body":"going to be forgotten"},{"startTime":2676.33,"endTime":2677.98,"body":"or somehow in some magical way"},{"startTime":2677.98,"endTime":2679.39,"body":"your life's going to be transformed"},{"startTime":2679.39,"endTime":2681.4,"body":"in a way that none of us can anticipate,"},{"startTime":2681.4,"endTime":2683.35,"body":"but instead actually engages"},{"startTime":2683.35,"endTime":2686.68,"body":"with the reality of why governments need"},{"startTime":2686.68,"endTime":2688.57,"body":"to get involved in markets,"},{"startTime":2688.57,"endTime":2691.57,"body":"why industrial strategies"},{"startTime":2688.57,"endTime":2691.57,"body":"which are flexible"},{"startTime":2691.57,"endTime":2693.43,"body":"and thoughtful could make sense,"},{"startTime":2693.43,"endTime":2695.545,"body":"and why it makes sense to make decisions"},{"startTime":2695.545,"endTime":2697.24,"body":"across our country"},{"startTime":2697.24,"endTime":2700.87,"body":"which are not purely based"},{"startTime":2697.24,"endTime":2700.87,"body":"on return on investment,"},{"startTime":2700.87,"endTime":2703.931,"body":"which can take into account"},{"startTime":2700.87,"endTime":2703.931,"body":"landscape, environment,"},{"startTime":2703.931,"endTime":2708.382,"body":"and deep structural injustices."},{"startTime":2708.382,"endTime":2710.62,"body":"The third thing that we talked about"},{"startTime":2710.62,"endTime":2714.73,"body":"was the relationship between"},{"startTime":2710.62,"endTime":2714.73,"body":"economic growth or economies,"},{"startTime":2714.73,"endTime":2717.734,"body":"free market economies, and democracy."},{"startTime":2717.734,"endTime":2720.34,"body":"And here, I want to try"},{"startTime":2720.34,"endTime":2724.99,"body":"to examine another notion in Aristotle."},{"startTime":2724.99,"endTime":2726.66,"body":"Right, so we've talked about pathos."},{"startTime":2726.66,"endTime":2730.48,"body":"We've talked here about"},{"startTime":2726.66,"endTime":2730.48,"body":"the notion of logos."},{"startTime":2730.48,"endTime":2731.32,"body":"What was the third one?"},{"startTime":2731.32,"endTime":2732.894,"body":"Anyone remember?"},{"startTime":2732.894,"endTime":2734.23,"body":"Ethos, right?"},{"startTime":2734.23,"endTime":2738.58,"body":"Okay, so the point about"},{"startTime":2734.23,"endTime":2738.58,"body":"ethos here is to try to embed"},{"startTime":2738.58,"endTime":2741.7,"body":"in the way in which we"},{"startTime":2738.58,"endTime":2741.7,"body":"think about our relationship"},{"startTime":2741.7,"endTime":2744.28,"body":"to democracy and"},{"startTime":2741.7,"endTime":2744.28,"body":"understanding that democracy"},{"startTime":2744.28,"endTime":2747.069,"body":"is not simply about the"},{"startTime":2744.28,"endTime":2747.069,"body":"production of economic goods,"},{"startTime":2747.069,"endTime":2750.01,"body":"that moral virtues are central"},{"startTime":2750.01,"endTime":2752.26,"body":"to what matters about democracy,"},{"startTime":2752.26,"endTime":2754.981,"body":"that democracy is not an"},{"startTime":2752.26,"endTime":2754.981,"body":"instrumental means to an end,"},{"startTime":2754.981,"endTime":2758.11,"body":"that notions of our rights, our liberty,"},{"startTime":2758.11,"endTime":2759.713,"body":"our equality as citizens,"},{"startTime":2759.713,"endTime":2761.59,"body":"and in fact what Aristotle"},{"startTime":2761.59,"endTime":2764.23,"body":"would call the joint activity of politics"},{"startTime":2764.23,"endTime":2766.987,"body":"is central to what makes"},{"startTime":2764.23,"endTime":2766.987,"body":"human life livable."},{"startTime":2766.987,"endTime":2769.488,"body":"The fourth one of these things"},{"startTime":2766.987,"endTime":2769.488,"body":"that I was talking about"},{"startTime":2769.488,"endTime":2774.217,"body":"is the loss of the sense"},{"startTime":2769.488,"endTime":2774.217,"body":"of our moral legitimacy,"},{"startTime":2774.217,"endTime":2777.82,"body":"and in the loss of the"},{"startTime":2774.217,"endTime":2777.82,"body":"sense of moral legitimacy,"},{"startTime":2777.82,"endTime":2780.324,"body":"I want to return to"},{"startTime":2777.82,"endTime":2780.324,"body":"the idea of eudaimonia,"},{"startTime":2780.324,"endTime":2783.363,"body":"the Aristotelian idea of happiness,"},{"startTime":2783.363,"endTime":2785.8,"body":"because the Aristotelian"},{"startTime":2783.363,"endTime":2785.8,"body":"idea of happiness,"},{"startTime":2785.8,"endTime":2790.8,"body":"again, is not simply vested"},{"startTime":2785.8,"endTime":2790.8,"body":"in a means-end calculation."},{"startTime":2790.805,"endTime":2793.42,"body":"Its response to social movements"},{"startTime":2793.42,"endTime":2798.42,"body":"is to say that happiness is"},{"startTime":2793.42,"endTime":2798.42,"body":"not an end, it's an activity,"},{"startTime":2798.64,"endTime":2802.15,"body":"and in particular, politics"},{"startTime":2798.64,"endTime":2802.15,"body":"is a joint activity."},{"startTime":2802.15,"endTime":2804.34,"body":"It's a communal activity."},{"startTime":2804.34,"endTime":2808.719,"body":"It's an activity where"},{"startTime":2804.34,"endTime":2808.719,"body":"ethical considerations combine"},{"startTime":2808.719,"endTime":2811.0,"body":"with the practical considerations"},{"startTime":2811.0,"endTime":2814.303,"body":"in the definition"},{"startTime":2811.0,"endTime":2814.303,"body":"together of the good life."},{"startTime":2815.62,"endTime":2817.75,"body":"And the fifth is, of course,"},{"startTime":2817.75,"endTime":2819.88,"body":"the question of the collapse"},{"startTime":2817.75,"endTime":2819.88,"body":"of the liberal global order,"},{"startTime":2819.88,"endTime":2821.98,"body":"and it's here where I want to appeal"},{"startTime":2821.98,"endTime":2824.29,"body":"to the notion of euelpsis."},{"startTime":2824.29,"endTime":2826.637,"body":"I want to appeal to the"},{"startTime":2824.29,"endTime":2826.637,"body":"notion of good hope,"},{"startTime":2826.637,"endTime":2830.757,"body":"because what characterized"},{"startTime":2826.637,"endTime":2830.757,"body":"the first stage I talked about"},{"startTime":2830.757,"endTime":2835.54,"body":"in the 1990s was unmoored optimism,"},{"startTime":2835.54,"endTime":2838.993,"body":"a form of abstracted fantasy,"},{"startTime":2840.37,"endTime":2842.92,"body":"which assumed that it"},{"startTime":2840.37,"endTime":2842.92,"body":"was going to be possible"},{"startTime":2842.92,"endTime":2844.9,"body":"to turn Iraq and Afghanistan"},{"startTime":2844.9,"endTime":2847.39,"body":"into liberal democracies"},{"startTime":2844.9,"endTime":2847.39,"body":"that generated books"},{"startTime":2847.39,"endTime":2850.177,"body":"called \"A Beginner's"},{"startTime":2847.39,"endTime":2850.177,"body":"Guide to Nation Building\"."},{"startTime":2851.23,"endTime":2853.3,"body":"And the populist era was defined"},{"startTime":2853.3,"endTime":2856.33,"body":"by a form of extreme pessimism."},{"startTime":2856.33,"endTime":2858.01,"body":"Many of these forms of nationalism"},{"startTime":2858.01,"endTime":2861.023,"body":"are based on a deep, profound pessimism."},{"startTime":2861.023,"endTime":2863.8,"body":"But what Aristotle's eualpsis does"},{"startTime":2863.8,"endTime":2868.57,"body":"is it says that the hope"},{"startTime":2863.8,"endTime":2868.57,"body":"that matters is based"},{"startTime":2868.57,"endTime":2873.19,"body":"on a courage that acknowledges"},{"startTime":2868.57,"endTime":2873.19,"body":"failure, acknowledges fear."},{"startTime":2873.19,"endTime":2874.66,"body":"Again, it's an intermediate point"},{"startTime":2874.66,"endTime":2877.039,"body":"where the courage responds to the fear"},{"startTime":2877.039,"endTime":2880.062,"body":"and avoids foolhardiness."},{"startTime":2880.062,"endTime":2885.062,"body":"The courage is the intermediate"},{"startTime":2880.062,"endTime":2885.062,"body":"ground between paralysis,"},{"startTime":2886.236,"endTime":2887.89,"body":"which could be very easy,"},{"startTime":2887.89,"endTime":2889.75,"body":"faced with this rather gloomy story"},{"startTime":2889.75,"endTime":2891.552,"body":"I've given of the world's evolution,"},{"startTime":2891.552,"endTime":2895.66,"body":"but also avoids the idea of slick,"},{"startTime":2895.66,"endTime":2897.55,"body":"unconvincing fairy stories."},{"startTime":2897.55,"endTime":2899.53,"body":"Instead, it is rooted."},{"startTime":2899.53,"endTime":2901.03,"body":"It's granular."},{"startTime":2901.03,"endTime":2903.502,"body":"It finds its position in a tradition,"},{"startTime":2903.502,"endTime":2906.687,"body":"in a place, in a country,"},{"startTime":2906.687,"endTime":2909.64,"body":"because that form of hope acknowledges,"},{"startTime":2909.64,"endTime":2911.573,"body":"and it's on this that I wish to conclude,"},{"startTime":2911.573,"endTime":2916.204,"body":"that if we can often do"},{"startTime":2911.573,"endTime":2916.204,"body":"much less than we pretend,"},{"startTime":2916.204,"endTime":2918.94,"body":"we can do much more than we fear."},{"startTime":2918.94,"endTime":2920.333,"body":"Thank you very much indeed."},{"startTime":2920.333,"endTime":2923.5,"body":"(audience applauding)"},{"startTime":2938.525,"endTime":2940.349,"body":"- This side?"},{"startTime":2940.349,"endTime":2941.432,"body":"- This side."},{"startTime":2943.613,"endTime":2946.218,"body":"What a spectacular talk."},{"startTime":2946.218,"endTime":2947.5,"body":"Good evening, everybody."},{"startTime":2947.5,"endTime":2948.4,"body":"My name is Martin Elliott."},{"startTime":2948.4,"endTime":2950.68,"body":"I'm the provost of Gresham College,"},{"startTime":2950.68,"endTime":2953.928,"body":"and I'm going to take questions"},{"startTime":2953.928,"endTime":2957.1,"body":"from the floor and then allow Rory"},{"startTime":2957.1,"endTime":2959.436,"body":"to continue this stunning speech,"},{"startTime":2959.436,"endTime":2963.25,"body":"and I think we have"},{"startTime":2959.436,"endTime":2963.25,"body":"one right at the front."},{"startTime":2963.25,"endTime":2966.43,"body":"- [Attendee] Thank you"},{"startTime":2963.25,"endTime":2966.43,"body":"very much for, I mean,"},{"startTime":2966.43,"endTime":2968.143,"body":"how you do it without notes."},{"startTime":2968.98,"endTime":2972.253,"body":"It's just confounded all"},{"startTime":2968.98,"endTime":2972.253,"body":"of us, but it's amazing."},{"startTime":2974.332,"endTime":2978.306,"body":"I really want to take you"},{"startTime":2974.332,"endTime":2978.306,"body":"up on the logos point."},{"startTime":2978.306,"endTime":2982.54,"body":"I'm a banker, so I"},{"startTime":2978.306,"endTime":2982.54,"body":"follow financial markets."},{"startTime":2982.54,"endTime":2985.788,"body":"We're about to see one of"},{"startTime":2982.54,"endTime":2985.788,"body":"the biggest seismic moves"},{"startTime":2985.788,"endTime":2988.48,"body":"of finance and of wealth moving"},{"startTime":2988.48,"endTime":2990.533,"body":"from one generation to another,"},{"startTime":2990.533,"endTime":2994.002,"body":"like $100 trillion will do so much,"},{"startTime":2994.002,"endTime":2998.26,"body":"to a generation that are very angry"},{"startTime":2998.26,"endTime":3000.1,"body":"with the previous generation,"},{"startTime":3000.1,"endTime":3003.39,"body":"who themselves have a"},{"startTime":3000.1,"endTime":3003.39,"body":"redefinition of the logos,"},{"startTime":3003.39,"endTime":3006.81,"body":"because, not to name any"},{"startTime":3003.39,"endTime":3006.81,"body":"names, we all know, you know,"},{"startTime":3006.81,"endTime":3008.43,"body":"my truth is what I want"},{"startTime":3008.43,"endTime":3010.17,"body":"to feel for today."},{"startTime":3008.43,"endTime":3010.17,"body":"- Sure."},{"startTime":3010.17,"endTime":3012.06,"body":"- [Attendee] Which"},{"startTime":3010.17,"endTime":3012.06,"body":"could absolutely destroy"},{"startTime":3012.06,"endTime":3013.652,"body":"the capitalist system."},{"startTime":3013.652,"endTime":3015.6,"body":"- And how's the transfer happening?"},{"startTime":3015.6,"endTime":3016.433,"body":"What's the trans-"},{"startTime":3016.433,"endTime":3017.266,"body":"- [Attendee] From one generation"},{"startTime":3017.266,"endTime":3018.33,"body":"to another."},{"startTime":3017.266,"endTime":3018.33,"body":"- What's the mechanism"},{"startTime":3018.33,"endTime":3019.163,"body":"of the transfer?"},{"startTime":3019.163,"endTime":3021.654,"body":"- [Attendee] Death, bank of mom and dad,"},{"startTime":3021.654,"endTime":3024.717,"body":"and the huge increase in capital"},{"startTime":3024.717,"endTime":3026.4,"body":"that we've never seen before"},{"startTime":3026.4,"endTime":3030.968,"body":"as a result of quantitative"},{"startTime":3026.4,"endTime":3030.968,"body":"easing, asset inflation,"},{"startTime":3030.968,"endTime":3033.51,"body":"people who own their homes"},{"startTime":3030.968,"endTime":3033.51,"body":"and the next generation"},{"startTime":3033.51,"endTime":3035.16,"body":"can't own their homes."},{"startTime":3035.16,"endTime":3038.46,"body":"And Ray Dalio, one of"},{"startTime":3035.16,"endTime":3038.46,"body":"the leading hedge funds,"},{"startTime":3038.46,"endTime":3040.41,"body":"has estimated that if this continues,"},{"startTime":3040.41,"endTime":3044.25,"body":"there's a 30% chance of"},{"startTime":3040.41,"endTime":3044.25,"body":"a civil war in the U.S."},{"startTime":3044.25,"endTime":3047.327,"body":"When you see this"},{"startTime":3044.25,"endTime":3047.327,"body":"intergenerational inequity,"},{"startTime":3047.327,"endTime":3050.673,"body":"how do you think we should"},{"startTime":3047.327,"endTime":3050.673,"body":"be responding to it?"},{"startTime":3052.767,"endTime":3055.86,"body":"- I think this is a very, very"},{"startTime":3052.767,"endTime":3055.86,"body":"deep and fundamental problem."},{"startTime":3055.86,"endTime":3058.77,"body":"I mean, in the story that I gave"},{"startTime":3058.77,"endTime":3061.453,"body":"of these change between different periods,"},{"startTime":3061.453,"endTime":3066.453,"body":"one of the defining"},{"startTime":3061.453,"endTime":3066.453,"body":"pieces of opinion research"},{"startTime":3067.95,"endTime":3071.82,"body":"is that at the end of"},{"startTime":3067.95,"endTime":3071.82,"body":"my first 1990s period,"},{"startTime":3071.82,"endTime":3074.01,"body":"the majority of people"},{"startTime":3071.82,"endTime":3074.01,"body":"in the United States"},{"startTime":3074.01,"endTime":3075.33,"body":"and Europe believe their children"},{"startTime":3075.33,"endTime":3077.67,"body":"are going to be better off than they are."},{"startTime":3077.67,"endTime":3079.98,"body":"2014, the beginning of"},{"startTime":3077.67,"endTime":3079.98,"body":"the period of populism,"},{"startTime":3079.98,"endTime":3082.05,"body":"is the moment at which the"},{"startTime":3079.98,"endTime":3082.05,"body":"majority of people believe"},{"startTime":3082.05,"endTime":3084.516,"body":"their children are going to"},{"startTime":3082.05,"endTime":3084.516,"body":"be worse off than they are."},{"startTime":3084.516,"endTime":3087.669,"body":"And it is very troubling"},{"startTime":3084.516,"endTime":3087.669,"body":"in a whole series of ways."},{"startTime":3087.669,"endTime":3089.16,"body":"I mean, it's not simply"},{"startTime":3089.16,"endTime":3092.285,"body":"that intergenerational"},{"startTime":3089.16,"endTime":3092.285,"body":"inequity is profound."},{"startTime":3092.285,"endTime":3097.285,"body":"I mean, one of the things"},{"startTime":3092.285,"endTime":3097.285,"body":"that's very misleading"},{"startTime":3098.67,"endTime":3100.32,"body":"about the Occupy Wall Street movement"},{"startTime":3100.32,"endTime":3102.105,"body":"is the Occupy Wall"},{"startTime":3100.32,"endTime":3102.105,"body":"Street movement suggests"},{"startTime":3102.105,"endTime":3107.105,"body":"that the fundamental problem"},{"startTime":3102.105,"endTime":3107.105,"body":"in our society is about the 1%."},{"startTime":3107.164,"endTime":3110.91,"body":"It's very, very tempting"},{"startTime":3107.164,"endTime":3110.91,"body":"to think there's this 1%"},{"startTime":3110.91,"endTime":3112.795,"body":"and we're all the 99%."},{"startTime":3112.795,"endTime":3114.433,"body":"And politicians like that,"},{"startTime":3114.433,"endTime":3117.897,"body":"because they want to feel that"},{"startTime":3114.433,"endTime":3117.897,"body":"they've embraced the majority"},{"startTime":3117.897,"endTime":3122.253,"body":"of their voters feeling like"},{"startTime":3117.897,"endTime":3122.253,"body":"victims against this group."},{"startTime":3123.24,"endTime":3126.36,"body":"But in fact, actually,"},{"startTime":3123.24,"endTime":3126.36,"body":"if you look at Britain,"},{"startTime":3126.36,"endTime":3130.32,"body":"the division is more between"},{"startTime":3126.36,"endTime":3130.32,"body":"the 60% who own property"},{"startTime":3130.32,"endTime":3132.39,"body":"and the 40% who don't."},{"startTime":3132.39,"endTime":3134.28,"body":"If you don't look at"},{"startTime":3132.39,"endTime":3134.28,"body":"incomes but look at wealth,"},{"startTime":3134.28,"endTime":3136.713,"body":"that is the fundamental"},{"startTime":3134.28,"endTime":3136.713,"body":"inequity in our country."},{"startTime":3137.755,"endTime":3141.66,"body":"People who own houses are"},{"startTime":3137.755,"endTime":3141.66,"body":"much, much, much better off,"},{"startTime":3141.66,"endTime":3143.31,"body":"basically, than people who don't."},{"startTime":3143.31,"endTime":3145.478,"body":"And people who own houses tend to be older"},{"startTime":3145.478,"endTime":3147.78,"body":"than people who don't."},{"startTime":3147.78,"endTime":3149.1,"body":"And a lot of our assumptions"},{"startTime":3149.1,"endTime":3151.678,"body":"in our pension system and"},{"startTime":3149.1,"endTime":3151.678,"body":"things, basically, at the moment,"},{"startTime":3151.678,"endTime":3154.043,"body":"when we model pensions,"},{"startTime":3154.043,"endTime":3159.043,"body":"we assume that the pensioner"},{"startTime":3154.043,"endTime":3159.043,"body":"doesn't pay a mortgage"},{"startTime":3159.27,"endTime":3162.57,"body":"and doesn't pay rent,"},{"startTime":3159.27,"endTime":3162.57,"body":"because almost all pensioners"},{"startTime":3162.57,"endTime":3165.84,"body":"in the United Kingdom today"},{"startTime":3162.57,"endTime":3165.84,"body":"do not do those things."},{"startTime":3165.84,"endTime":3166.77,"body":"But the generation"},{"startTime":3166.77,"endTime":3169.59,"body":"that's coming may well"},{"startTime":3166.77,"endTime":3169.59,"body":"end up doing those things."},{"startTime":3169.59,"endTime":3172.05,"body":"It's also true that we"},{"startTime":3169.59,"endTime":3172.05,"body":"have another problem,"},{"startTime":3172.05,"endTime":3175.35,"body":"which is that our societies"},{"startTime":3175.35,"endTime":3177.614,"body":"are based on the assumption of growth,"},{"startTime":3177.614,"endTime":3180.407,"body":"have to be based on the"},{"startTime":3177.614,"endTime":3180.407,"body":"assumption of growth,"},{"startTime":3180.407,"endTime":3184.156,"body":"because our societies are aging,"},{"startTime":3184.156,"endTime":3188.7,"body":"our pension costs are therefore"},{"startTime":3184.156,"endTime":3188.7,"body":"necessarily increasing,"},{"startTime":3188.7,"endTime":3189.837,"body":"people are living longer,"},{"startTime":3189.837,"endTime":3193.12,"body":"and the inflation in health care"},{"startTime":3193.12,"endTime":3197.673,"body":"is always two or three times"},{"startTime":3193.12,"endTime":3197.673,"body":"the growth of your economy."},{"startTime":3198.69,"endTime":3200.21,"body":"So health care inflation"},{"startTime":3200.21,"endTime":3203.673,"body":"in most developed economies is"},{"startTime":3200.21,"endTime":3203.673,"body":"six, 7% a year at the moment."},{"startTime":3204.6,"endTime":3206.1,"body":"That's because drugs are more expensive,"},{"startTime":3206.1,"endTime":3207.48,"body":"but it's also simply that we live longer,"},{"startTime":3207.48,"endTime":3209.712,"body":"and it's also that we"},{"startTime":3207.48,"endTime":3209.712,"body":"go to the doctor more."},{"startTime":3209.712,"endTime":3214.08,"body":"However, a lot of our"},{"startTime":3209.712,"endTime":3214.08,"body":"assumptions around climate change"},{"startTime":3214.08,"endTime":3217.14,"body":"and the environment"},{"startTime":3214.08,"endTime":3217.14,"body":"are increasingly trying"},{"startTime":3217.14,"endTime":3218.957,"body":"to come to terms with the possibility"},{"startTime":3218.957,"endTime":3222.81,"body":"that infinite growth in a planet"},{"startTime":3222.81,"endTime":3226.923,"body":"with finite resources ultimately"},{"startTime":3222.81,"endTime":3226.923,"body":"cannot continue forever."},{"startTime":3228.9,"endTime":3230.961,"body":"And it's certainly questionable"},{"startTime":3230.961,"endTime":3232.811,"body":"whether the ideas of green growth"},{"startTime":3232.811,"endTime":3234.54,"body":"are really going to deliver."},{"startTime":3234.54,"endTime":3238.35,"body":"To make it even worse,"},{"startTime":3234.54,"endTime":3238.35,"body":"most of the policies"},{"startTime":3238.35,"endTime":3240.512,"body":"that we are currently introducing"},{"startTime":3240.512,"endTime":3244.05,"body":"to deal with climate"},{"startTime":3240.512,"endTime":3244.05,"body":"change are regressive."},{"startTime":3244.05,"endTime":3247.65,"body":"In other words, they have their"},{"startTime":3244.05,"endTime":3247.65,"body":"biggest impact on the poor,"},{"startTime":3247.65,"endTime":3248.97,"body":"not on the wealthy."},{"startTime":3248.97,"endTime":3249.803,"body":"Why is that?"},{"startTime":3249.803,"endTime":3251.25,"body":"That's because the way"},{"startTime":3251.25,"endTime":3253.23,"body":"in which we get people to convert"},{"startTime":3253.23,"endTime":3256.447,"body":"from carbon consumption"},{"startTime":3253.23,"endTime":3256.447,"body":"to non-carbon consumption"},{"startTime":3256.447,"endTime":3260.07,"body":"is we tax their use of those things."},{"startTime":3260.07,"endTime":3262.59,"body":"We tax the fuel they put in the car."},{"startTime":3262.59,"endTime":3264.355,"body":"We tax their energy at home."},{"startTime":3264.355,"endTime":3266.37,"body":"Now, that, of course,"},{"startTime":3266.37,"endTime":3268.83,"body":"from an economically rational"},{"startTime":3266.37,"endTime":3268.83,"body":"point of view, makes sense."},{"startTime":3268.83,"endTime":3270.03,"body":"You put taxes on those things."},{"startTime":3270.03,"endTime":3271.89,"body":"You incentivize people"},{"startTime":3270.03,"endTime":3271.89,"body":"to change their behavior."},{"startTime":3271.89,"endTime":3273.72,"body":"But of course, for the wealthy,"},{"startTime":3273.72,"endTime":3276.899,"body":"those things are a much,"},{"startTime":3273.72,"endTime":3276.899,"body":"much smaller proportion"},{"startTime":3276.899,"endTime":3278.49,"body":"of their income,"},{"startTime":3278.49,"endTime":3282.84,"body":"of their expenditure, than"},{"startTime":3278.49,"endTime":3282.84,"body":"they are for the poor."},{"startTime":3282.84,"endTime":3285.6,"body":"And we saw this with what"},{"startTime":3282.84,"endTime":3285.6,"body":"happened with Russia."},{"startTime":3285.6,"endTime":3287.1,"body":"There was a tiny glimpse"},{"startTime":3287.1,"endTime":3289.14,"body":"of a much, much bigger problem coming."},{"startTime":3289.14,"endTime":3290.97,"body":"As soon as Russian gas stopped,"},{"startTime":3290.97,"endTime":3293.548,"body":"we were forced into an energy transition,"},{"startTime":3293.548,"endTime":3296.687,"body":"which was immediately felt"},{"startTime":3293.548,"endTime":3296.687,"body":"in people's gas prices,"},{"startTime":3296.687,"endTime":3298.745,"body":"at which point the"},{"startTime":3296.687,"endTime":3298.745,"body":"government then suddenly"},{"startTime":3298.745,"endTime":3301.38,"body":"had to introduce forms of economic policy,"},{"startTime":3301.38,"endTime":3302.942,"body":"which we've spent 40"},{"startTime":3301.38,"endTime":3302.942,"body":"years telling everyone"},{"startTime":3302.942,"endTime":3305.13,"body":"in the world not to do."},{"startTime":3305.13,"endTime":3307.89,"body":"I used to go on these"},{"startTime":3305.13,"endTime":3307.89,"body":"missions with colleagues"},{"startTime":3307.89,"endTime":3309.09,"body":"in the World Bank and the IMF,"},{"startTime":3309.09,"endTime":3312.51,"body":"telling off people for"},{"startTime":3309.09,"endTime":3312.51,"body":"putting energy price caps on"},{"startTime":3312.51,"endTime":3314.04,"body":"or subsidizing their electricity."},{"startTime":3314.04,"endTime":3314.873,"body":"And that's, of course,"},{"startTime":3314.873,"endTime":3317.01,"body":"exactly what the British"},{"startTime":3314.873,"endTime":3317.01,"body":"government ended up doing."},{"startTime":3317.01,"endTime":3319.503,"body":"So what are the solutions"},{"startTime":3317.01,"endTime":3319.503,"body":"to these problems?"},{"startTime":3321.6,"endTime":3324.57,"body":"I think they're going to be"},{"startTime":3321.6,"endTime":3324.57,"body":"very, very, very difficult"},{"startTime":3324.57,"endTime":3325.89,"body":"and very, very radical."},{"startTime":3325.89,"endTime":3330.235,"body":"They are going to involve"},{"startTime":3325.89,"endTime":3330.235,"body":"much more radical taxation."},{"startTime":3330.235,"endTime":3335.045,"body":"They're going to involve"},{"startTime":3330.235,"endTime":3335.045,"body":"probably larger wealth taxes."},{"startTime":3335.045,"endTime":3337.712,"body":"I think one of the smartest proposals"},{"startTime":3337.712,"endTime":3342.712,"body":"on this is Theresa May's"},{"startTime":3337.712,"endTime":3342.712,"body":"proposal on adult social care,"},{"startTime":3343.29,"endTime":3345.312,"body":"which is that you fund adult social care"},{"startTime":3345.312,"endTime":3348.787,"body":"by taking the money out of"},{"startTime":3345.312,"endTime":3348.787,"body":"someone's house after they die."},{"startTime":3348.787,"endTime":3352.818,"body":"And in essence, during your"},{"startTime":3348.787,"endTime":3352.818,"body":"life, you live in your house,"},{"startTime":3352.818,"endTime":3354.51,"body":"you pay for your social care,"},{"startTime":3354.51,"endTime":3357.33,"body":"and the government then"},{"startTime":3354.51,"endTime":3357.33,"body":"gets the value of that house"},{"startTime":3357.33,"endTime":3359.224,"body":"when you die and redistributes it."},{"startTime":3359.224,"endTime":3364.224,"body":"But remember, Theresa May"},{"startTime":3359.224,"endTime":3364.224,"body":"lost the 2017 election"},{"startTime":3364.56,"endTime":3365.913,"body":"on that single policy."},{"startTime":3366.84,"endTime":3369.69,"body":"She went from a projected"},{"startTime":3366.84,"endTime":3369.69,"body":"150-seat majority"},{"startTime":3369.69,"endTime":3371.82,"body":"to losing her majority on that."},{"startTime":3371.82,"endTime":3374.61,"body":"So the politics of doing"},{"startTime":3371.82,"endTime":3374.61,"body":"any of these things"},{"startTime":3374.61,"endTime":3376.02,"body":"is very difficult."},{"startTime":3376.02,"endTime":3378.6,"body":"And industrial strategy"},{"startTime":3376.02,"endTime":3378.6,"body":"is necessary, right?"},{"startTime":3378.6,"endTime":3380.993,"body":"We need to shift money up"},{"startTime":3378.6,"endTime":3380.993,"body":"to the northeast of England."},{"startTime":3380.993,"endTime":3382.23,"body":"But the one thing"},{"startTime":3382.23,"endTime":3384.24,"body":"we know about governments"},{"startTime":3382.23,"endTime":3384.24,"body":"doing industrial strategy"},{"startTime":3384.24,"endTime":3385.86,"body":"is it's never honest."},{"startTime":3385.86,"endTime":3387.81,"body":"The politics gets into it."},{"startTime":3387.81,"endTime":3391.02,"body":"They're not making rational"},{"startTime":3387.81,"endTime":3391.02,"body":"choices on what to invest in."},{"startTime":3391.02,"endTime":3392.97,"body":"Even if they were able"},{"startTime":3391.02,"endTime":3392.97,"body":"to see into the future"},{"startTime":3392.97,"endTime":3395.16,"body":"and know which industries"},{"startTime":3392.97,"endTime":3395.16,"body":"they needed to do,"},{"startTime":3395.16,"endTime":3396.45,"body":"even if they could be certain"},{"startTime":3396.45,"endTime":3399.69,"body":"that having a gigabattery"},{"startTime":3396.45,"endTime":3399.69,"body":"factory in Britain"},{"startTime":3399.69,"endTime":3402.51,"body":"was the way forward or"},{"startTime":3399.69,"endTime":3402.51,"body":"manufacturing wind turbines"},{"startTime":3402.51,"endTime":3404.91,"body":"in Britain was the way"},{"startTime":3402.51,"endTime":3404.91,"body":"forward, sure as eggs is eggs,"},{"startTime":3404.91,"endTime":3407.31,"body":"where they put that money in"},{"startTime":3404.91,"endTime":3407.31,"body":"the industries they invest in"},{"startTime":3407.31,"endTime":3409.8,"body":"are actually deeply, deeply inflected"},{"startTime":3409.8,"endTime":3411.81,"body":"by their political and"},{"startTime":3409.8,"endTime":3411.81,"body":"voting calculations,"},{"startTime":3411.81,"endTime":3415.23,"body":"not really by a rational"},{"startTime":3411.81,"endTime":3415.23,"body":"economic analysis."},{"startTime":3415.23,"endTime":3417.6,"body":"So I haven't really answered your question"},{"startTime":3417.6,"endTime":3418.62,"body":"except to make it"},{"startTime":3417.6,"endTime":3418.62,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":3418.62,"endTime":3420.57,"body":"even gloomier and more depressing"},{"startTime":3420.57,"endTime":3422.05,"body":"because most of the moves"},{"startTime":3422.05,"endTime":3424.35,"body":"we'll have to make will be"},{"startTime":3422.05,"endTime":3424.35,"body":"politically impossible, yeah."},{"startTime":3424.35,"endTime":3425.582,"body":"- I can give you another one."},{"startTime":3425.582,"endTime":3426.415,"body":"- Go!"},{"startTime":3426.415,"endTime":3430.02,"body":"- Someone in outer space is"},{"startTime":3426.415,"endTime":3430.02,"body":"sending in this question,"},{"startTime":3430.02,"endTime":3432.393,"body":"which I think is quite"},{"startTime":3430.02,"endTime":3432.393,"body":"relevant following that."},{"startTime":3432.393,"endTime":3434.85,"body":"Given that we seem to be rushing headlong"},{"startTime":3434.85,"endTime":3436.09,"body":"into climate disaster"},{"startTime":3437.07,"endTime":3439.23,"body":"and given that we've seen"},{"startTime":3437.07,"endTime":3439.23,"body":"the political changes"},{"startTime":3439.23,"endTime":3441.81,"body":"you so beautifully describe,"},{"startTime":3441.81,"endTime":3445.804,"body":"maybe we need autocracies to"},{"startTime":3441.81,"endTime":3445.804,"body":"pull us back from the brink"},{"startTime":3445.804,"endTime":3447.27,"body":"because the systems"},{"startTime":3447.27,"endTime":3452.27,"body":"we've had in current traditional"},{"startTime":3447.27,"endTime":3452.27,"body":"democratic government"},{"startTime":3452.43,"endTime":3455.133,"body":"have failed to react sufficiently quickly."},{"startTime":3456.87,"endTime":3461.76,"body":"- So this is, of course,"},{"startTime":3456.87,"endTime":3461.76,"body":"another very dangerous"},{"startTime":3461.76,"endTime":3462.93,"body":"and very tempting idea."},{"startTime":3462.93,"endTime":3464.79,"body":"So in a moment of crisis,"},{"startTime":3464.79,"endTime":3468.905,"body":"it's very tempting to think"},{"startTime":3464.79,"endTime":3468.905,"body":"that democracies are too slow,"},{"startTime":3468.905,"endTime":3471.09,"body":"that democratic politicians"},{"startTime":3471.09,"endTime":3473.58,"body":"are too affected by electoral cycles."},{"startTime":3473.58,"endTime":3474.54,"body":"And this is, of course,"},{"startTime":3474.54,"endTime":3476.28,"body":"what the Chinese government"},{"startTime":3474.54,"endTime":3476.28,"body":"wants to project."},{"startTime":3476.28,"endTime":3479.073,"body":"The Chinese government is"},{"startTime":3476.28,"endTime":3479.073,"body":"basically trying to say,"},{"startTime":3480.57,"endTime":3483.51,"body":"we can plan 20, 30 years in the future,"},{"startTime":3483.51,"endTime":3485.49,"body":"we can make the big"},{"startTime":3483.51,"endTime":3485.49,"body":"moves that are necessary,"},{"startTime":3485.49,"endTime":3486.45,"body":"whether on industrial strategy"},{"startTime":3486.45,"endTime":3489.175,"body":"or the green transformation"},{"startTime":3486.45,"endTime":3489.175,"body":"and climate change,"},{"startTime":3489.175,"endTime":3492.21,"body":"and the democracies are finished"},{"startTime":3489.175,"endTime":3492.21,"body":"because they're too slow,"},{"startTime":3492.21,"endTime":3493.91,"body":"too bureaucratic, too incompetent."},{"startTime":3496.2,"endTime":3498.087,"body":"And I don't know what"},{"startTime":3496.2,"endTime":3498.087,"body":"the answer to this is."},{"startTime":3498.087,"endTime":3500.31,"body":"And my instinct is very strongly"},{"startTime":3500.31,"endTime":3502.384,"body":"on the side of the democracies."},{"startTime":3502.384,"endTime":3504.66,"body":"But my instinct is on the side"},{"startTime":3504.66,"endTime":3507.36,"body":"of the democracies partly"},{"startTime":3504.66,"endTime":3507.36,"body":"on ethical, moral grounds,"},{"startTime":3507.36,"endTime":3508.56,"body":"partly because I believe"},{"startTime":3508.56,"endTime":3512.85,"body":"that actually our lives"},{"startTime":3508.56,"endTime":3512.85,"body":"benefit from liberty,"},{"startTime":3512.85,"endTime":3514.29,"body":"our lives benefit from rights,"},{"startTime":3514.29,"endTime":3515.623,"body":"our lives benefit from voting,"},{"startTime":3515.623,"endTime":3518.91,"body":"that these notions of"},{"startTime":3515.623,"endTime":3518.91,"body":"equality are important."},{"startTime":3518.91,"endTime":3520.523,"body":"I'm also extremely skeptical"},{"startTime":3520.523,"endTime":3524.695,"body":"about the efficiency of autocratic"},{"startTime":3520.523,"endTime":3524.695,"body":"systems in the long run."},{"startTime":3524.695,"endTime":3528.33,"body":"I think their feedback and"},{"startTime":3524.695,"endTime":3528.33,"body":"response mechanisms are poor."},{"startTime":3528.33,"endTime":3530.181,"body":"But perhaps most important of all,"},{"startTime":3530.181,"endTime":3532.68,"body":"the one thing that democracies deliver"},{"startTime":3532.68,"endTime":3537.68,"body":"in a slow, uneven fashion"},{"startTime":3532.68,"endTime":3537.68,"body":"is the necessity of consent."},{"startTime":3537.734,"endTime":3540.74,"body":"Getting consent is really painful."},{"startTime":3540.74,"endTime":3543.721,"body":"The reason HS2 will be very expensive"},{"startTime":3543.721,"endTime":3546.63,"body":"is we have to negotiate"},{"startTime":3543.721,"endTime":3546.63,"body":"with every community"},{"startTime":3546.63,"endTime":3547.92,"body":"all the way along the way,"},{"startTime":3547.92,"endTime":3550.38,"body":"and apparently in China"},{"startTime":3547.92,"endTime":3550.38,"body":"you just run the rail line"},{"startTime":3550.38,"endTime":3552.24,"body":"and you don't care, right."},{"startTime":3552.24,"endTime":3555.247,"body":"But ultimately, if you"},{"startTime":3552.24,"endTime":3555.247,"body":"are to sustain a policy,"},{"startTime":3555.247,"endTime":3558.36,"body":"if you are to actually do radical things"},{"startTime":3558.36,"endTime":3560.651,"body":"that are going to end up"},{"startTime":3558.36,"endTime":3560.651,"body":"with people making sacrifices"},{"startTime":3560.651,"endTime":3562.445,"body":"and costing them money"},{"startTime":3562.445,"endTime":3564.596,"body":"and lead a very, very"},{"startTime":3562.445,"endTime":3564.596,"body":"difficult transition,"},{"startTime":3564.596,"endTime":3566.473,"body":"you have to bring people with you."},{"startTime":3566.473,"endTime":3570.48,"body":"And the electoral system, the"},{"startTime":3566.473,"endTime":3570.48,"body":"democratic electoral system,"},{"startTime":3570.48,"endTime":3573.383,"body":"is a really important forcing mechanism"},{"startTime":3573.383,"endTime":3576.96,"body":"for forcing politicians to listen,"},{"startTime":3576.96,"endTime":3578.943,"body":"forcing politicians to explain,"},{"startTime":3578.943,"endTime":3581.607,"body":"forcing politicians to try"},{"startTime":3578.943,"endTime":3581.607,"body":"to bring people with them."},{"startTime":3581.607,"endTime":3584.19,"body":"And in the end, I think, although slower,"},{"startTime":3584.19,"endTime":3587.37,"body":"that's probably a surer"},{"startTime":3584.19,"endTime":3587.37,"body":"and more sustainable way"},{"startTime":3587.37,"endTime":3588.63,"body":"to tackle climate change"},{"startTime":3588.63,"endTime":3590.49,"body":"than trying to impose it from above."},{"startTime":3590.49,"endTime":3591.323,"body":"- Thank you."},{"startTime":3591.323,"endTime":3592.899,"body":"Let's take some more"},{"startTime":3591.323,"endTime":3592.899,"body":"questions from the audience."},{"startTime":3592.899,"endTime":3594.99,"body":"Let's go close to you at the back."},{"startTime":3594.99,"endTime":3596.707,"body":"There's a hand up."},{"startTime":3596.707,"endTime":3598.893,"body":"And one just there as well."},{"startTime":3600.33,"endTime":3601.163,"body":"- [Attendee] It's pretty obvious"},{"startTime":3601.163,"endTime":3602.855,"body":"why you left party politics."},{"startTime":3602.855,"endTime":3603.81,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":3603.81,"endTime":3605.94,"body":"But can you tell me what are the prospects"},{"startTime":3605.94,"endTime":3608.536,"body":"that you'll come back into"},{"startTime":3605.94,"endTime":3608.536,"body":"party politics in this country?"},{"startTime":3608.536,"endTime":3613.536,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":3608.536,"endTime":3613.536,"body":"(audience claps)"},{"startTime":3615.51,"endTime":3617.657,"body":"- I don't know what the prospects are."},{"startTime":3617.657,"endTime":3621.407,"body":"I feel, currently, I"},{"startTime":3617.657,"endTime":3621.407,"body":"feel that these issues"},{"startTime":3621.407,"endTime":3626.407,"body":"are immensely important and"},{"startTime":3621.407,"endTime":3626.407,"body":"I feel that I'm sort of,"},{"startTime":3627.61,"endTime":3630.69,"body":"I'm facing a sort of block of stone"},{"startTime":3630.69,"endTime":3632.16,"body":"and I have a kind of chisel."},{"startTime":3632.16,"endTime":3635.37,"body":"And at the moment, I'm sort"},{"startTime":3632.16,"endTime":3635.37,"body":"of scraping along the surface"},{"startTime":3635.37,"endTime":3639.09,"body":"and I have to find the angle"},{"startTime":3635.37,"endTime":3639.09,"body":"to bring the chisel down"},{"startTime":3639.09,"endTime":3640.26,"body":"and cleave this thing apart."},{"startTime":3640.26,"endTime":3643.5,"body":"And I don't know whether, how that's done."},{"startTime":3643.5,"endTime":3644.79,"body":"I don't know whether that's done"},{"startTime":3644.79,"endTime":3648.723,"body":"through elected parliamentary politics,"},{"startTime":3650.31,"endTime":3652.47,"body":"how I get back into politics."},{"startTime":3652.47,"endTime":3655.983,"body":"I mean, we're in a"},{"startTime":3652.47,"endTime":3655.983,"body":"first-past-the-post system."},{"startTime":3657.501,"endTime":3658.95,"body":"I'm certainly not rejoining"},{"startTime":3658.95,"endTime":3660.72,"body":"the Conservative Party anytime soon."},{"startTime":3660.72,"endTime":3664.74,"body":"So there's a question of a how."},{"startTime":3664.74,"endTime":3667.77,"body":"There's also the other"},{"startTime":3664.74,"endTime":3667.77,"body":"thing, which is that I'm not,"},{"startTime":3667.77,"endTime":3669.77,"body":"I'm not sure how good a politician I am."},{"startTime":3671.16,"endTime":3673.59,"body":"I am, a couple of ways."},{"startTime":3673.59,"endTime":3676.65,"body":"One of them is that I find the business"},{"startTime":3676.65,"endTime":3679.02,"body":"of being a politician"},{"startTime":3676.65,"endTime":3679.02,"body":"very, very bad for me."},{"startTime":3679.02,"endTime":3680.22,"body":"It's bad for my mind."},{"startTime":3680.22,"endTime":3681.27,"body":"It's bad for my body."},{"startTime":3681.27,"endTime":3682.62,"body":"It's bad for my soul."},{"startTime":3682.62,"endTime":3686.283,"body":"I end up becoming a vain,"},{"startTime":3687.24,"endTime":3692.24,"body":"slightly immoral person"},{"startTime":3687.24,"endTime":3692.24,"body":"who ceases to listen."},{"startTime":3693.27,"endTime":3695.58,"body":"I mean, politicians, not only don't think,"},{"startTime":3695.58,"endTime":3696.413,"body":"they don't listen."},{"startTime":3696.413,"endTime":3697.246,"body":"After about 10 years,"},{"startTime":3697.246,"endTime":3699.59,"body":"a politician's incapable"},{"startTime":3697.246,"endTime":3699.59,"body":"of listening to anybody."},{"startTime":3700.44,"endTime":3705.44,"body":"So, I'm finding a route that allows me"},{"startTime":3705.57,"endTime":3710.57,"body":"to try to defend some form of values"},{"startTime":3713.34,"endTime":3716.85,"body":"and make changes is something"},{"startTime":3713.34,"endTime":3716.85,"body":"I'm still struggling with."},{"startTime":3716.85,"endTime":3718.08,"body":"- Let's take another question."},{"startTime":3718.08,"endTime":3721.89,"body":"I think we had one more at"},{"startTime":3718.08,"endTime":3721.89,"body":"the back there beforehand."},{"startTime":3721.89,"endTime":3722.723,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3724.063,"endTime":3726.63,"body":"- [Attendee] Thank you"},{"startTime":3724.063,"endTime":3726.63,"body":"very much for your talk."},{"startTime":3726.63,"endTime":3729.409,"body":"Do you have a view on how"},{"startTime":3726.63,"endTime":3729.409,"body":"Margaret Thatcher fits"},{"startTime":3729.409,"endTime":3732.48,"body":"into these developments and changes"},{"startTime":3732.48,"endTime":3734.19,"body":"that you've spoken about tonight?"},{"startTime":3734.19,"endTime":3735.023,"body":"- Yeah."},{"startTime":3737.64,"endTime":3739.575,"body":"I think she is important in this"},{"startTime":3739.575,"endTime":3742.41,"body":"because I think she established"},{"startTime":3742.41,"endTime":3746.67,"body":"with Reagan the consensus of what,"},{"startTime":3746.67,"endTime":3749.37,"body":"in the end, came through in 1989."},{"startTime":3749.37,"endTime":3754.143,"body":"And I think it was a world view that was,"},{"startTime":3755.008,"endTime":3760.008,"body":"in many ways, its"},{"startTime":3755.008,"endTime":3760.008,"body":"liberation of the markets,"},{"startTime":3760.68,"endTime":3765.68,"body":"its consensus on"},{"startTime":3760.68,"endTime":3765.68,"body":"privatization, on deregulation,"},{"startTime":3766.754,"endTime":3770.823,"body":"on the shrinking of the state,"},{"startTime":3766.754,"endTime":3770.823,"body":"on the lowering of taxes,"},{"startTime":3771.93,"endTime":3775.08,"body":"on a shift away from"},{"startTime":3771.93,"endTime":3775.08,"body":"society to the individual."},{"startTime":3775.08,"endTime":3780.06,"body":"These things definitely"},{"startTime":3775.08,"endTime":3780.06,"body":"powered economic growth."},{"startTime":3780.06,"endTime":3781.983,"body":"I mean, in terms of GDP growth,"},{"startTime":3783.509,"endTime":3788.509,"body":"Britain from the mid-1980s to 2008 began,"},{"startTime":3788.64,"endTime":3791.61,"body":"for the first time, to grow more quickly"},{"startTime":3791.61,"endTime":3793.95,"body":"than the United States by the 1990s"},{"startTime":3793.95,"endTime":3796.77,"body":"and was finding itself"},{"startTime":3796.77,"endTime":3799.95,"body":"the second fastest"},{"startTime":3796.77,"endTime":3799.95,"body":"productivity growth in the G7."},{"startTime":3799.95,"endTime":3801.3,"body":"So on the kind of things"},{"startTime":3801.3,"endTime":3804.303,"body":"that liberal market"},{"startTime":3801.3,"endTime":3804.303,"body":"economists want to measure,"},{"startTime":3805.35,"endTime":3807.6,"body":"it achieved an enormous amount."},{"startTime":3807.6,"endTime":3810.763,"body":"And, of course, the"},{"startTime":3807.6,"endTime":3810.763,"body":"transfer of council houses"},{"startTime":3810.763,"endTime":3815.43,"body":"to many council house"},{"startTime":3810.763,"endTime":3815.43,"body":"residents gave them wealth,"},{"startTime":3815.43,"endTime":3817.44,"body":"gave them assets that"},{"startTime":3815.43,"endTime":3817.44,"body":"they didn't have before"},{"startTime":3817.44,"endTime":3819.244,"body":"that they were able to then put to use."},{"startTime":3819.244,"endTime":3823.98,"body":"But the consequences of"},{"startTime":3819.244,"endTime":3823.98,"body":"this are also very troubling"},{"startTime":3823.98,"endTime":3825.45,"body":"and very disturbing in the long run"},{"startTime":3825.45,"endTime":3830.45,"body":"and lay the ground for a"},{"startTime":3825.45,"endTime":3830.45,"body":"lot of what is now populism,"},{"startTime":3831.0,"endTime":3831.833,"body":"because, of course,"},{"startTime":3831.833,"endTime":3834.249,"body":"this is also the period"},{"startTime":3831.833,"endTime":3834.249,"body":"of the hollowing out"},{"startTime":3834.249,"endTime":3836.097,"body":"of the traditional industries"},{"startTime":3836.097,"endTime":3838.26,"body":"in the northeast of England,"},{"startTime":3838.26,"endTime":3840.0,"body":"the removal of affordable housing"},{"startTime":3840.0,"endTime":3841.85,"body":"from the country through the selling off"},{"startTime":3841.85,"endTime":3846.85,"body":"of the council estates,"},{"startTime":3841.85,"endTime":3846.85,"body":"increasing inequality,"},{"startTime":3848.31,"endTime":3851.28,"body":"a sense of the individual"},{"startTime":3851.28,"endTime":3854.793,"body":"and the loss of a confident"},{"startTime":3851.28,"endTime":3854.793,"body":"way of talking about society,"},{"startTime":3855.78,"endTime":3858.27,"body":"because in essence what's revealed there"},{"startTime":3858.27,"endTime":3861.149,"body":"is that the liberal markets unleashed"},{"startTime":3861.149,"endTime":3863.46,"body":"are not really conservative"},{"startTime":3863.46,"endTime":3866.61,"body":"in the sense of Edmund"},{"startTime":3863.46,"endTime":3866.61,"body":"Burke's conservatism."},{"startTime":3866.61,"endTime":3869.19,"body":"They're not really slow-moving,"},{"startTime":3869.19,"endTime":3872.34,"body":"prudent, restrained, traditional."},{"startTime":3872.34,"endTime":3876.018,"body":"They are upending everything"},{"startTime":3872.34,"endTime":3876.018,"body":"very, very dramatically."},{"startTime":3876.018,"endTime":3881.018,"body":"And as the inequities or"},{"startTime":3876.018,"endTime":3881.018,"body":"cruelty of that is exposed,"},{"startTime":3884.61,"endTime":3887.67,"body":"many of the other"},{"startTime":3884.61,"endTime":3887.67,"body":"problems that we then see"},{"startTime":3887.67,"endTime":3890.504,"body":"in terms of the moral"},{"startTime":3887.67,"endTime":3890.504,"body":"legitimacy of the West,"},{"startTime":3890.504,"endTime":3892.77,"body":"the relationship to democracy"},{"startTime":3892.77,"endTime":3894.36,"body":"and the liberal global order begin"},{"startTime":3894.36,"endTime":3897.81,"body":"to have relationships to that development."},{"startTime":3897.81,"endTime":3899.16,"body":"- [Attendee] Thank you."},{"startTime":3899.16,"endTime":3901.481,"body":"What do you think about"},{"startTime":3899.16,"endTime":3901.481,"body":"citizens' assemblies"},{"startTime":3901.481,"endTime":3905.195,"body":"as a way of organizing politics"},{"startTime":3905.195,"endTime":3910.05,"body":"and do you think they have"},{"startTime":3905.195,"endTime":3910.05,"body":"much chance of taking off?"},{"startTime":3910.05,"endTime":3912.33,"body":"- Okay, I love citizens' assemblies."},{"startTime":3912.33,"endTime":3914.76,"body":"Citizens' assemblies, very"},{"startTime":3912.33,"endTime":3914.76,"body":"quickly for people in the room"},{"startTime":3914.76,"endTime":3916.77,"body":"who aren't familiar with them,"},{"startTime":3916.77,"endTime":3919.44,"body":"it's essentially like a large jury."},{"startTime":3919.44,"endTime":3922.786,"body":"The idea is that you do a"},{"startTime":3919.44,"endTime":3922.786,"body":"census of the population"},{"startTime":3922.786,"endTime":3925.86,"body":"and then you randomly"},{"startTime":3922.786,"endTime":3925.86,"body":"select a group of it,"},{"startTime":3925.86,"endTime":3928.32,"body":"could be 300 people who are meant"},{"startTime":3928.32,"endTime":3930.933,"body":"to be representative of"},{"startTime":3928.32,"endTime":3930.933,"body":"the country as a whole."},{"startTime":3932.82,"endTime":3936.72,"body":"And these people will be"},{"startTime":3932.82,"endTime":3936.72,"body":"demographically representative"},{"startTime":3936.72,"endTime":3941.25,"body":"and you gather them in a room"},{"startTime":3936.72,"endTime":3941.25,"body":"and you put them with experts."},{"startTime":3941.25,"endTime":3943.129,"body":"So it'll be a room about this size,"},{"startTime":3943.129,"endTime":3944.947,"body":"about this number of people,"},{"startTime":3944.947,"endTime":3947.16,"body":"and they will have presentations"},{"startTime":3947.16,"endTime":3948.96,"body":"on various issues and"},{"startTime":3947.16,"endTime":3948.96,"body":"they will debate them"},{"startTime":3948.96,"endTime":3949.92,"body":"and they will discuss them"},{"startTime":3949.92,"endTime":3952.86,"body":"and they will come forward"},{"startTime":3949.92,"endTime":3952.86,"body":"with a recommendation."},{"startTime":3952.86,"endTime":3957.0,"body":"And what you tend to find"},{"startTime":3952.86,"endTime":3957.0,"body":"is extraordinary results"},{"startTime":3957.0,"endTime":3958.47,"body":"which are actually much more impressive"},{"startTime":3958.47,"endTime":3960.03,"body":"than you get out of a parliament."},{"startTime":3960.03,"endTime":3962.04,"body":"Whenever I say this to my"},{"startTime":3960.03,"endTime":3962.04,"body":"colleagues in parliament,"},{"startTime":3962.04,"endTime":3964.17,"body":"they say, we don't need"},{"startTime":3962.04,"endTime":3964.17,"body":"a citizens' assembly,"},{"startTime":3964.17,"endTime":3965.749,"body":"we're the citizens' assembly."},{"startTime":3965.749,"endTime":3967.163,"body":"But the truth of the matter"},{"startTime":3967.163,"endTime":3970.68,"body":"is that 300 randomly selected citizens"},{"startTime":3970.68,"endTime":3973.95,"body":"do not come with strong partisan agendas."},{"startTime":3973.95,"endTime":3976.56,"body":"They don't have strong"},{"startTime":3973.95,"endTime":3976.56,"body":"party political agendas."},{"startTime":3976.56,"endTime":3979.29,"body":"And they tend to find their"},{"startTime":3976.56,"endTime":3979.29,"body":"way towards compromise"},{"startTime":3979.29,"endTime":3981.0,"body":"in the middle ground much more easily."},{"startTime":3981.0,"endTime":3982.71,"body":"The classic example was in Ireland."},{"startTime":3982.71,"endTime":3985.11,"body":"This is what resolved the arguments"},{"startTime":3985.11,"endTime":3988.35,"body":"around abortion in Ireland"},{"startTime":3985.11,"endTime":3988.35,"body":"because what happened,"},{"startTime":3988.35,"endTime":3990.03,"body":"and you cannot imagine, in"},{"startTime":3988.35,"endTime":3990.03,"body":"the Republic of Ireland,"},{"startTime":3990.03,"endTime":3991.5,"body":"you cannot imagine a society"},{"startTime":3991.5,"endTime":3995.91,"body":"in which abortion was a"},{"startTime":3991.5,"endTime":3995.91,"body":"more controversial issue."},{"startTime":3995.91,"endTime":3997.71,"body":"But by putting people in a room"},{"startTime":3997.71,"endTime":4002.63,"body":"and getting experts up"},{"startTime":3997.71,"endTime":4002.63,"body":"talking about trimesters"},{"startTime":4002.63,"endTime":4005.45,"body":"and the biology of human evolution"},{"startTime":4005.45,"endTime":4007.631,"body":"and raising legal questions around rape,"},{"startTime":4007.631,"endTime":4011.507,"body":"you actually found the"},{"startTime":4007.631,"endTime":4011.507,"body":"debate going from a for"},{"startTime":4011.507,"endTime":4015.953,"body":"and against to a how many weeks' debate."},{"startTime":4017.06,"endTime":4019.25,"body":"And this is incredibly important."},{"startTime":4019.25,"endTime":4021.41,"body":"It would have been incredibly"},{"startTime":4019.25,"endTime":4021.41,"body":"important in Brexit"},{"startTime":4021.41,"endTime":4023.0,"body":"if we'd managed to get"},{"startTime":4021.41,"endTime":4023.0,"body":"a citizens' assembly."},{"startTime":4023.0,"endTime":4026.366,"body":"We could have got away from Brexit remain"},{"startTime":4026.366,"endTime":4031.366,"body":"towards what is a softer, more"},{"startTime":4026.366,"endTime":4031.366,"body":"workable, compromised Brexit,"},{"startTime":4032.06,"endTime":4036.068,"body":"a customs union, for my money, right?"},{"startTime":4036.068,"endTime":4039.05,"body":"And, indeed, when we did"},{"startTime":4036.068,"endTime":4039.05,"body":"citizens' assemblies around it,"},{"startTime":4039.05,"endTime":4040.73,"body":"that's, in fact, what they ended up with"},{"startTime":4040.73,"endTime":4043.28,"body":"because they were thinking"},{"startTime":4040.73,"endTime":4043.28,"body":"about Northern Ireland borders"},{"startTime":4043.28,"endTime":4045.32,"body":"and they were thinking"},{"startTime":4043.28,"endTime":4045.32,"body":"about trade with Europe,"},{"startTime":4045.32,"endTime":4047.12,"body":"but they were also trying"},{"startTime":4045.32,"endTime":4047.12,"body":"to acknowledge the fact"},{"startTime":4047.12,"endTime":4048.98,"body":"that 52% of the people had voted to leave"},{"startTime":4048.98,"endTime":4050.12,"body":"and they were trying to accommodate that."},{"startTime":4050.12,"endTime":4052.88,"body":"So, I'm a real believer"},{"startTime":4050.12,"endTime":4052.88,"body":"in citizens' assemblies."},{"startTime":4052.88,"endTime":4056.205,"body":"And I think they have powerful wisdom"},{"startTime":4056.205,"endTime":4058.91,"body":"and powerful legitimacy"},{"startTime":4058.91,"endTime":4062.6,"body":"and powerful consensus-building"},{"startTime":4058.91,"endTime":4062.6,"body":"mechanisms embedded in them,"},{"startTime":4062.6,"endTime":4064.303,"body":"and I'd like to see many more of them."},{"startTime":4065.63,"endTime":4066.746,"body":"- Ask away."},{"startTime":4066.746,"endTime":4068.103,"body":"- [Attendee] Hi."},{"startTime":4068.103,"endTime":4070.55,"body":"I just thought that the"},{"startTime":4068.103,"endTime":4070.55,"body":"politicians' parties,"},{"startTime":4070.55,"endTime":4073.193,"body":"they don't know what"},{"startTime":4070.55,"endTime":4073.193,"body":"you're missing without you."},{"startTime":4073.193,"endTime":4074.48,"body":"(laughing)"},{"startTime":4074.48,"endTime":4075.44,"body":"Two things."},{"startTime":4075.44,"endTime":4077.347,"body":"You didn't mention Ukraine"},{"startTime":4077.347,"endTime":4081.248,"body":"and public service sector workers,"},{"startTime":4081.248,"endTime":4083.3,"body":"nurses, doctors, teachers."},{"startTime":4083.3,"endTime":4084.5,"body":"What do we do with them?"},{"startTime":4085.97,"endTime":4087.302,"body":"- Two very big questions."},{"startTime":4087.302,"endTime":4089.69,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":4089.69,"endTime":4093.26,"body":"Public sector workers, I think, you know,"},{"startTime":4093.26,"endTime":4095.03,"body":"obviously we are in a situation"},{"startTime":4095.03,"endTime":4097.58,"body":"in which many people in our society feel"},{"startTime":4097.58,"endTime":4099.92,"body":"they're in a very precarious situation,"},{"startTime":4099.92,"endTime":4102.593,"body":"and public sector workers"},{"startTime":4099.92,"endTime":4102.593,"body":"are one of those groups."},{"startTime":4104.0,"endTime":4105.77,"body":"They feel, in many ways,"},{"startTime":4105.77,"endTime":4109.76,"body":"that their salaries are not"},{"startTime":4105.77,"endTime":4109.76,"body":"keeping up with inflation,"},{"startTime":4109.76,"endTime":4112.94,"body":"and that's partly because"},{"startTime":4109.76,"endTime":4112.94,"body":"the inflation indicators"},{"startTime":4112.94,"endTime":4114.47,"body":"that we look at are not revealing"},{"startTime":4114.47,"endTime":4117.029,"body":"the full extent of the"},{"startTime":4114.47,"endTime":4117.029,"body":"pressures that they're facing,"},{"startTime":4117.029,"endTime":4118.79,"body":"particularly if you're operating"},{"startTime":4118.79,"endTime":4119.81,"body":"in the southeast of England,"},{"startTime":4119.81,"endTime":4122.45,"body":"the real expense of getting a house,"},{"startTime":4122.45,"endTime":4124.85,"body":"the real expense of"},{"startTime":4122.45,"endTime":4124.85,"body":"looking after yourself."},{"startTime":4124.85,"endTime":4127.16,"body":"At the same time, more and"},{"startTime":4124.85,"endTime":4127.16,"body":"more is being asked of them."},{"startTime":4127.16,"endTime":4130.58,"body":"At the same time, respect for politicians,"},{"startTime":4130.58,"endTime":4133.49,"body":"civil servants is at an all-time low."},{"startTime":4133.49,"endTime":4134.9,"body":"You know, we're a long way"},{"startTime":4134.9,"endTime":4138.2,"body":"beyond a fantasy 19th century world"},{"startTime":4138.2,"endTime":4141.53,"body":"where in your village or"},{"startTime":4138.2,"endTime":4141.53,"body":"town you doffed your cap"},{"startTime":4141.53,"endTime":4144.14,"body":"to the teacher and the"},{"startTime":4141.53,"endTime":4144.14,"body":"doctor and the priest,"},{"startTime":4144.14,"endTime":4146.3,"body":"and these people were great sort"},{"startTime":4146.3,"endTime":4148.55,"body":"of figures of authority and respect."},{"startTime":4148.55,"endTime":4152.829,"body":"We're in a world now"},{"startTime":4148.55,"endTime":4152.829,"body":"where people feel abused."},{"startTime":4152.829,"endTime":4154.7,"body":"They feel attacked on every side,"},{"startTime":4154.7,"endTime":4157.85,"body":"and this is one of the many"},{"startTime":4154.7,"endTime":4157.85,"body":"elements, along with inequities"},{"startTime":4157.85,"endTime":4162.47,"body":"in pay and pensions, which is"},{"startTime":4157.85,"endTime":4162.47,"body":"driving public sector anger."},{"startTime":4162.47,"endTime":4165.02,"body":"But at the same time, of course,"},{"startTime":4165.02,"endTime":4166.49,"body":"you notice that Kyistarma"},{"startTime":4166.49,"endTime":4168.828,"body":"is not promising to"},{"startTime":4166.49,"endTime":4168.828,"body":"increase their salaries,"},{"startTime":4168.828,"endTime":4171.197,"body":"because it's very, very difficult"},{"startTime":4171.197,"endTime":4173.03,"body":"to see where the money"},{"startTime":4173.03,"endTime":4175.7,"body":"is coming from to pay for"},{"startTime":4173.03,"endTime":4175.7,"body":"all these things, in part"},{"startTime":4175.7,"endTime":4177.11,"body":"because, as I say, the expansion"},{"startTime":4177.11,"endTime":4180.2,"body":"and the cost of our health"},{"startTime":4177.11,"endTime":4180.2,"body":"care and pensions is beginning"},{"startTime":4180.2,"endTime":4184.73,"body":"to outstrip almost every other"},{"startTime":4180.2,"endTime":4184.73,"body":"part of government spending."},{"startTime":4184.73,"endTime":4185.563,"body":"Ukraine."},{"startTime":4186.909,"endTime":4188.99,"body":"Well, Ukraine, of course, in a sense,"},{"startTime":4188.99,"endTime":4191.6,"body":"represents the beginning of a final age,"},{"startTime":4191.6,"endTime":4193.76,"body":"an age that started in"},{"startTime":4191.6,"endTime":4193.76,"body":"February of last year,"},{"startTime":4193.76,"endTime":4196.04,"body":"which I didn't get onto, which, of course,"},{"startTime":4196.04,"endTime":4197.69,"body":"is the move from the age of populism"},{"startTime":4197.69,"endTime":4202.69,"body":"to the age of global conflict,"},{"startTime":4197.69,"endTime":4202.69,"body":"and in which the attack"},{"startTime":4203.42,"endTime":4206.21,"body":"by Vladimir Putin on attempts"},{"startTime":4206.21,"endTime":4210.41,"body":"to get to Kiev not only disrupted most"},{"startTime":4210.41,"endTime":4212.321,"body":"of the complacent assumptions of the,"},{"startTime":4212.321,"endTime":4214.88,"body":"or whatever complacent"},{"startTime":4212.321,"endTime":4214.88,"body":"assumptions remained"},{"startTime":4214.88,"endTime":4215.93,"body":"in the liberal order,"},{"startTime":4217.04,"endTime":4222.04,"body":"but also has begun to clarify"},{"startTime":4217.04,"endTime":4222.04,"body":"a new emerging Cold War"},{"startTime":4222.56,"endTime":4224.18,"body":"between the United States and China,"},{"startTime":4224.18,"endTime":4227.09,"body":"because, of course,"},{"startTime":4224.18,"endTime":4227.09,"body":"Russia-Ukraine presages"},{"startTime":4227.09,"endTime":4230.668,"body":"and points towards tensions"},{"startTime":4227.09,"endTime":4230.668,"body":"between China and Taiwan,"},{"startTime":4230.668,"endTime":4234.005,"body":"the problems of trying"},{"startTime":4230.668,"endTime":4234.005,"body":"to decouple our economies"},{"startTime":4234.005,"endTime":4235.82,"body":"from the Russian economy,"},{"startTime":4235.82,"endTime":4238.11,"body":"which was deeply, deeply damaging"},{"startTime":4238.11,"endTime":4241.268,"body":"in terms of our fuel prices,"},{"startTime":4238.11,"endTime":4241.268,"body":"in terms of sub-Saharan Africa,"},{"startTime":4241.268,"endTime":4244.94,"body":"which imports 60% of its"},{"startTime":4241.268,"endTime":4244.94,"body":"wheat from Russia and Ukraine,"},{"startTime":4244.94,"endTime":4247.61,"body":"but will be to a power of 20"},{"startTime":4247.61,"endTime":4250.7,"body":"if we begin to start thinking"},{"startTime":4247.61,"endTime":4250.7,"body":"about decoupling from China,"},{"startTime":4250.7,"endTime":4255.31,"body":"because currently, Taiwan produces 50%"},{"startTime":4255.31,"endTime":4256.143,"body":"of the world's semiconductors,"},{"startTime":4256.143,"endTime":4259.52,"body":"90% of the world's"},{"startTime":4256.143,"endTime":4259.52,"body":"advanced semiconductors,"},{"startTime":4259.52,"endTime":4260.87,"body":"and if trying to imagine a world"},{"startTime":4260.87,"endTime":4262.55,"body":"without Russian gas is difficult,"},{"startTime":4262.55,"endTime":4264.23,"body":"imagining a world without semiconductors"},{"startTime":4264.23,"endTime":4265.46,"body":"is almost impossible,"},{"startTime":4265.46,"endTime":4267.65,"body":"and that's before you get on to the fact"},{"startTime":4267.65,"endTime":4270.59,"body":"that 50% of the profits"},{"startTime":4267.65,"endTime":4270.59,"body":"of European automobile"},{"startTime":4270.59,"endTime":4273.38,"body":"and luxury goods manufacturers"},{"startTime":4270.59,"endTime":4273.38,"body":"are made in China,"},{"startTime":4273.38,"endTime":4275.9,"body":"50% of their profits in China,"},{"startTime":4275.9,"endTime":4278.483,"body":"but also 50% of their growth in China."},{"startTime":4278.483,"endTime":4282.74,"body":"So China is a problem 20"},{"startTime":4278.483,"endTime":4282.74,"body":"times larger than Russia,"},{"startTime":4282.74,"endTime":4284.9,"body":"in fact, so much so that"},{"startTime":4282.74,"endTime":4284.9,"body":"we shouldn't be thinking"},{"startTime":4284.9,"endTime":4288.44,"body":"about decoupling at all,"},{"startTime":4284.9,"endTime":4288.44,"body":"we should be thinking,"},{"startTime":4288.44,"endTime":4291.56,"body":"if we were Aristotle,"},{"startTime":4288.44,"endTime":4291.56,"body":"in terms of de-risking,"},{"startTime":4291.56,"endTime":4293.3,"body":"and de-risking has a double meaning,"},{"startTime":4293.3,"endTime":4295.7,"body":"de-risking means, yes,"},{"startTime":4295.7,"endTime":4298.52,"body":"occasionally thinking about resilience,"},{"startTime":4298.52,"endTime":4300.05,"body":"not having all our eggs in that basket,"},{"startTime":4300.05,"endTime":4302.42,"body":"but de-risking also"},{"startTime":4300.05,"endTime":4302.42,"body":"means actively engaging"},{"startTime":4302.42,"endTime":4305.63,"body":"with China to lower the"},{"startTime":4302.42,"endTime":4305.63,"body":"chance for confrontation"},{"startTime":4305.63,"endTime":4306.89,"body":"and a conflict,"},{"startTime":4306.89,"endTime":4308.24,"body":"and trying to work out what we do"},{"startTime":4308.24,"endTime":4309.407,"body":"about the situation in the United States,"},{"startTime":4309.407,"endTime":4312.44,"body":"which is really beginning to build allies"},{"startTime":4312.44,"endTime":4314.543,"body":"for what seems like a new Cold War."},{"startTime":4315.567,"endTime":4316.94,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":4316.94,"endTime":4319.7,"body":"I'm going to have to draw"},{"startTime":4316.94,"endTime":4319.7,"body":"an end to the questions,"},{"startTime":4319.7,"endTime":4322.16,"body":"but first I want to just say"},{"startTime":4322.16,"endTime":4323.9,"body":"it's been an unbelievable privilege"},{"startTime":4323.9,"endTime":4325.34,"body":"to listen to you talk tonight."},{"startTime":4325.34,"endTime":4328.67,"body":"It's clear from the"},{"startTime":4325.34,"endTime":4328.67,"body":"murmurings in the audience"},{"startTime":4328.67,"endTime":4332.57,"body":"that they feel that politics"},{"startTime":4328.67,"endTime":4332.57,"body":"has lost something important"},{"startTime":4332.57,"endTime":4335.556,"body":"which is potentially"},{"startTime":4332.57,"endTime":4335.556,"body":"regainable with any luck."},{"startTime":4335.556,"endTime":4338.0,"body":"It's great for those of us"},{"startTime":4338.0,"endTime":4341.107,"body":"who are engaged in"},{"startTime":4338.0,"endTime":4341.107,"body":"speaking from time to time"},{"startTime":4341.107,"endTime":4345.95,"body":"to see such fluency, such"},{"startTime":4341.107,"endTime":4345.95,"body":"a noteless presentation,"},{"startTime":4345.95,"endTime":4349.311,"body":"such clarity, and the ability"},{"startTime":4349.311,"endTime":4354.311,"body":"to pre-see complex issues"},{"startTime":4349.311,"endTime":4354.311,"body":"essentially on the fly."},{"startTime":4355.16,"endTime":4357.193,"body":"It's extremely impressive,"},{"startTime":4357.193,"endTime":4361.46,"body":"and we're very grateful"},{"startTime":4357.193,"endTime":4361.46,"body":"to you for doing it."},{"startTime":4361.46,"endTime":4365.27,"body":"I would also like to say"},{"startTime":4361.46,"endTime":4365.27,"body":"it's no surprise to me"},{"startTime":4365.27,"endTime":4367.21,"body":"that your podcast is so successful,"},{"startTime":4367.21,"endTime":4369.14,"body":"and I think that those of you"},{"startTime":4369.14,"endTime":4371.0,"body":"who haven't heard the rest of politics,"},{"startTime":4371.0,"endTime":4373.43,"body":"you've probably missed a great treat,"},{"startTime":4373.43,"endTime":4374.84,"body":"and they're all available to listen to,"},{"startTime":4374.84,"endTime":4377.183,"body":"and we look forward to many more of them."},{"startTime":4378.692,"endTime":4380.312,"body":"I'd just like also to say"},{"startTime":4380.312,"endTime":4383.12,"body":"that there's a wonderful overlap"},{"startTime":4383.12,"endTime":4386.0,"body":"between what you've spoken about"},{"startTime":4386.0,"endTime":4388.55,"body":"and the series of talks to be given"},{"startTime":4388.55,"endTime":4391.55,"body":"by our new professor of rhetoric starting"},{"startTime":4391.55,"endTime":4394.487,"body":"in October of this year, Melissa Lane,"},{"startTime":4394.487,"endTime":4398.33,"body":"who's professor of political"},{"startTime":4394.487,"endTime":4398.33,"body":"philosophy in Princeton,"},{"startTime":4398.33,"endTime":4400.52,"body":"is going to be talking about the impact"},{"startTime":4400.52,"endTime":4403.31,"body":"of classical democracies"},{"startTime":4400.52,"endTime":4403.31,"body":"on modern politics,"},{"startTime":4403.31,"endTime":4405.513,"body":"and it will be an extremely"},{"startTime":4403.31,"endTime":4405.513,"body":"interesting series."},{"startTime":4405.513,"endTime":4406.563,"body":"I hope you'll listen."},{"startTime":4407.914,"endTime":4409.85,"body":"Thank you for your insights."},{"startTime":4409.85,"endTime":4412.61,"body":"It has genuinely been a privilege,"},{"startTime":4412.61,"endTime":4415.31,"body":"and I hope you'll join me"},{"startTime":4412.61,"endTime":4415.31,"body":"in thanking Rory Stewart"},{"startTime":4415.31,"endTime":4416.9,"body":"for an outstanding"},{"startTime":4415.31,"endTime":4416.9,"body":"Thomas Gershwin lecture."},{"startTime":4416.9,"endTime":4420.012,"body":"- Thank you."},{"startTime":4416.9,"endTime":4420.012,"body":"(audience applauding)"},{"startTime":4420.012,"endTime":4421.957,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":4421.957,"endTime":4426.957,"body":"- Thank you."},{"startTime":4421.957,"endTime":4426.957,"body":"(audience applauding)"}]}