{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":4.705,"endTime":9.165,"body":"In 1989, there were two major events which shaped the modern world."},{"startTime":10.465,"endTime":17.338,"body":"The first was the brutal suppression of protests in Tran Square on the 4th of"},{"startTime":17.338,"endTime":17.796,"body":"June, 1989, and the reassertion of the authority of the Chinese Communist Party, Don Jing"},{"startTime":17.796,"endTime":18.254,"body":"embarked on economic reform before the this, uh, event, but the party would remain in"},{"startTime":18.254,"endTime":36.125,"body":"control to manage the transition to an economy with market features."},{"startTime":37.355,"endTime":41.285,"body":"Dunk called it socialism with Chinese characteristics."},{"startTime":42.345,"endTime":47.833,"body":"The result was unprecedented rates of economic growth and improvement in the welfare of many"},{"startTime":47.833,"endTime":48.565,"body":"Chinese people."},{"startTime":50.425,"endTime":55.768,"body":"The second event was the fall of the Berlin Wall of the 9th of November,"},{"startTime":55.768,"endTime":56.125,"body":"1989."},{"startTime":57.195,"endTime":63.241,"body":"General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev did not intervene in the same way as the Chinese authorities"},{"startTime":63.241,"endTime":63.645,"body":"did."},{"startTime":64.224,"endTime":69.765,"body":"And in 1988, he made the decision that d thought was disastrous."},{"startTime":70.625,"endTime":72.805,"body":"He loosened the hold of the Communist party."},{"startTime":74.565,"endTime":81.345,"body":"Economic reform in the Soviet Union continued as shock therapy, a swift conversion from a"},{"startTime":81.345,"endTime":83.605,"body":"planned to a market economy."},{"startTime":84.905,"endTime":91.042,"body":"The outcome, unlike in China, was falling standards of welfare for many Russians, for vast"},{"startTime":91.042,"endTime":94.725,"body":"riches for others in what is called a kleptocracy."},{"startTime":97.025,"endTime":103.21,"body":"The distinction in the rates of growth and welfare is apparent in this table, which"},{"startTime":103.21,"endTime":103.622,"body":"you'll see on screen now, the rapid catching up of China with, um, United States"},{"startTime":103.622,"endTime":111.045,"body":"and the Russian Federation."},{"startTime":114.545,"endTime":121.728,"body":"In December, 1989, president Bush and Gorbachev met him Malta and announced the end of"},{"startTime":121.728,"endTime":123.165,"body":"the Cold War,"},{"startTime":124.545,"endTime":130.713,"body":"The American political scientist, Francis Fouke arm, a thought to use the title of his"},{"startTime":130.713,"endTime":131.125,"body":"deeply misguided book of 1992, that this marked the end of history, the demise of"},{"startTime":131.125,"endTime":131.536,"body":"the Soviet Union, he said, and I quote, meant not just the passing of a"},{"startTime":131.536,"endTime":131.947,"body":"particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such, that is the"},{"startTime":131.947,"endTime":132.358,"body":"end point of man's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as a"},{"startTime":132.358,"endTime":157.445,"body":"final form of human government."},{"startTime":158.475,"endTime":163.342,"body":"Well, I thought that claim was absurd at the time, and it's become even more"},{"startTime":163.342,"endTime":164.965,"body":"absurd as time has passed."},{"startTime":166.945,"endTime":173.391,"body":"But it seems at that moment that there was a triumph of democratic capitalism, which"},{"startTime":173.391,"endTime":173.821,"body":"could not have been predicted even a few years earlier when the world was gripped"},{"startTime":173.821,"endTime":174.25,"body":"in a battle between different economic and political systems and different visions of modernity, a"},{"startTime":174.25,"endTime":174.68,"body":"clash between market economics on the one hand, and Marxism on the other, not only"},{"startTime":174.68,"endTime":175.11,"body":"between the West and the Soviet Union, but also between different visions of Marxism in"},{"startTime":175.11,"endTime":201.325,"body":"the Soviet Union and China."},{"startTime":203.145,"endTime":208.966,"body":"So I want to start off by asking what were the different approaches of the"},{"startTime":208.966,"endTime":209.355,"body":"United States, the Soviet Union and China during the Cold War before that moment of"},{"startTime":209.355,"endTime":215.565,"body":"seeming triumph?"},{"startTime":216.025,"endTime":219.565,"body":"So I want to look at different visions of modernity."},{"startTime":222.145,"endTime":228.621,"body":"The United States, of course, oppose Marxism and hope to extend market capitalism in the"},{"startTime":228.621,"endTime":229.485,"body":"third world."},{"startTime":231.565,"endTime":239.398,"body":"American thinking rested on the belief that traditional societies were inflexible, superstitious dominated by growing"},{"startTime":239.398,"endTime":239.92,"body":"elites, lacking a powerful middle class, relying upon a simple economy with limited technology, and"},{"startTime":239.92,"endTime":250.365,"body":"with a fatalistic subservience to nature."},{"startTime":251.725,"endTime":258.387,"body":"A modern society, on other hand, was defined as being like the United States, and"},{"startTime":258.387,"endTime":258.831,"body":"in that vision, it was a society which is flexible and adaptable, welcoming, change, outward"},{"startTime":258.831,"endTime":259.275,"body":"looking and rational with a complex economy based upon private ownership and enterprise, an advanced"},{"startTime":259.275,"endTime":277.485,"body":"division of labor and a willingness to subjugate them in the natural world."},{"startTime":278.395,"endTime":286.161,"body":"Well, needs to say both those visions lacked deep insight into the two societies, but"},{"startTime":286.161,"endTime":292.375,"body":"they shaped American policy to many influential figures in the United States."},{"startTime":292.875,"endTime":299.925,"body":"The greatest danger of communism taking over the world was at the point of transition"},{"startTime":299.925,"endTime":303.215,"body":"from a traditional peasant society to modernity."},{"startTime":303.925,"endTime":306.775,"body":"That moment could be exploited by the communists."},{"startTime":308.225,"endTime":315.155,"body":"Above all, that was the claim of the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts"},{"startTime":315.155,"endTime":315.617,"body":"Institute of Technology, directed by a form of assistant director of the CIA and partly"},{"startTime":315.617,"endTime":323.935,"body":"funded by the CIA."},{"startTime":324.995,"endTime":331.992,"body":"And the most important member of the center was, I'm afraid to say, an economic"},{"startTime":331.992,"endTime":332.458,"body":"historian, Walt Rostow, who was there directing the attention of President Johnson to a battle"},{"startTime":332.458,"endTime":340.855,"body":"in the Vietnam War."},{"startTime":342.455,"endTime":350.607,"body":"Rostow advised both presidents Kennedy and Johnson, his most famous book was The Stages of"},{"startTime":350.607,"endTime":351.695,"body":"Economic Growth."},{"startTime":352.285,"endTime":357.725,"body":"With the subtitle, a Non-Communist Manifesto came out in 1960."},{"startTime":358.705,"endTime":365.682,"body":"It offered an alternative path to modernity from the Soviet Union and the Communist manifesto"},{"startTime":365.682,"endTime":366.147,"body":"of Marx and Engels, the book generalized from a rather poor understanding of British economic"},{"startTime":366.147,"endTime":373.125,"body":"history."},{"startTime":374.395,"endTime":381.451,"body":"Instead of stages of a movement from a feudal society with landed overstock, aristocrats to"},{"startTime":381.451,"endTime":385.685,"body":"bourgeois capitalists, and then the dictatorship of the Ariat."},{"startTime":385.905,"endTime":394.162,"body":"And then finally, socialism, rosow said that there was instead a movement way through stages"},{"startTime":394.162,"endTime":394.713,"body":"form propensities or preconditions for growth to what he called the takeoff into self-sustained growth"},{"startTime":394.713,"endTime":407.925,"body":"during the British Industrial Revolution, the first one to happen."},{"startTime":408.825,"endTime":413.35,"body":"And that was caused by a rise in capital formation and a leading sector of"},{"startTime":413.35,"endTime":413.651,"body":"the economy, which like a jet engine that was the metaphor, pushed the economy down"},{"startTime":413.651,"endTime":419.685,"body":"a runway until it took off."},{"startTime":420.505,"endTime":427.809,"body":"It was not a story of aeration and exploitation of workers as in the communist"},{"startTime":427.809,"endTime":428.296,"body":"manifesto, but rather a movement to the next stage maturity, and then finally, modern America"},{"startTime":428.296,"endTime":441.445,"body":"and high mass consumption rather than in reservation, as Marx would have it."},{"startTime":442.425,"endTime":447.605,"body":"Now, in Roscoe's view, the dangerous stage was before the takeoff."},{"startTime":449.025,"endTime":452.565,"body":"And on the runway, you're taxiing, are you going to take off or not?"},{"startTime":453.225,"endTime":459.405,"body":"Is traditional society going to be overcome before economic growth delivers welfare gains?"},{"startTime":460.785,"endTime":465.165,"body":"In his words, he said, communism was not the way for the future."},{"startTime":466.105,"endTime":469.285,"body":"It is a disease of the transitional process."},{"startTime":471.465,"endTime":473.645,"body":"So two things followed with this analysis."},{"startTime":474.505,"endTime":481.472,"body":"The first was that the Americans had to encourage the takeoff into self-sustained growth to"},{"startTime":481.472,"endTime":481.937,"body":"happen as quickly as possible, to boost that growth, to deny Moscow and Beijing there,"},{"startTime":481.937,"endTime":493.085,"body":"as he called it, dangerous mystique of transforming underdeveloped countries."},{"startTime":493.915,"endTime":499.965,"body":"That meant, therefore giving economic aid to those countries until they achieve self-sustained growth."},{"startTime":501.065,"endTime":506.909,"body":"But the second thing to do, and this is what he's doing here as a"},{"startTime":506.909,"endTime":510.805,"body":"hawk in the Vietnam War, is to have military intervention."},{"startTime":512.534,"endTime":517.926,"body":"Until the standard of living was improved by democratic capitalism, it was vital to contain"},{"startTime":517.926,"endTime":519.365,"body":"communism by military action."},{"startTime":519.745,"endTime":522.445,"body":"So he and his brother Eugene, were both haws."},{"startTime":524.515,"endTime":530.285,"body":"Now you can imagine that the Soviet Union and the Chinese didn't see it exactly"},{"startTime":530.285,"endTime":531.055,"body":"that way."},{"startTime":532.205,"endTime":538.885,"body":"They sought to influence the third world with different ideological assumptions."},{"startTime":539.985,"endTime":542.605,"body":"Let me just explain then what they are for the Soviet Union."},{"startTime":542.665,"endTime":543.365,"body":"And then China."},{"startTime":545.705,"endTime":553.365,"body":"The Soviet Union concentrated on a critique of capitalism rather than a critique of colonialism."},{"startTime":554.465,"endTime":557.885,"body":"Now, the Soviet Union was a rather unusual entity."},{"startTime":558.825,"endTime":563.245,"body":"It lacked a clearly defined geographical area or identity."},{"startTime":563.865,"endTime":572.305,"body":"It was a collection of republics, each republic having a titular nationality and some republics"},{"startTime":572.305,"endTime":576.245,"body":"then having national minorities within autonomous areas."},{"startTime":578.585,"endTime":581.365,"body":"So Russia was only another republic."},{"startTime":582.385,"endTime":583.605,"body":"It was not the Soviet Union."},{"startTime":584.065,"endTime":590.182,"body":"And Russia itself had its own autonomous areas, such as for the Chechens, to then"},{"startTime":590.182,"endTime":595.485,"body":"have a status, which, a dual status of being a patriotic Soviet citizen."},{"startTime":596.845,"endTime":598.605,"body":"Combined with your separate national identity."},{"startTime":600.265,"endTime":609.398,"body":"They also defined the Csst territorial expansion before the revolution as not being imperialistic and"},{"startTime":609.398,"endTime":617.315,"body":"colonialistic, but rather about voluntary annexation to save Central Asia from British colonials."},{"startTime":619.025,"endTime":623.275,"body":"This view of history allowed the Soviets to argue in the Cold War."},{"startTime":623.465,"endTime":628.675,"body":"They were a non imperial power that accepted local cultures and identities."},{"startTime":629.655,"endTime":636.675,"body":"It allowed Khrushchev to define the Soviet Union as Eurasian multicultural and a successful model"},{"startTime":636.675,"endTime":641.355,"body":"of how to overcome feudal rule in the third world."},{"startTime":643.555,"endTime":652.135,"body":"Khrushchev's aim was to export Soviet style modernity based upon large scale investment and economic"},{"startTime":652.135,"endTime":652.707,"body":"planning in alliance with bourgeois nationalists like Theum of in Ghana or nasa here at"},{"startTime":652.707,"endTime":666.435,"body":"the, uh, inauguration of the Aswan Dam on the Nile."},{"startTime":667.705,"endTime":674.635,"body":"Working then with these nationalists in building their, on their role in securing independence."},{"startTime":675.535,"endTime":682.0,"body":"Soviet involvement with people like NASA and Kuma usually relied on pragmatic assessment of the"},{"startTime":682.0,"endTime":684.155,"body":"cost and benefits of trade."},{"startTime":685.345,"endTime":689.715,"body":"Less weight then was given to the ideology of anti-colonialism."},{"startTime":692.135,"endTime":693.555,"body":"The Chinese took a different line."},{"startTime":695.175,"endTime":701.715,"body":"Mao was more interested in revolutionary movements support for gorillas against colonialism."},{"startTime":702.935,"endTime":710.435,"body":"Unlike the Soviets, China appealed to the third world as a fellow victim of racism"},{"startTime":710.435,"endTime":711.435,"body":"and imperialism."},{"startTime":713.025,"endTime":719.483,"body":"Mao looked, I'll make this point much clearer later on in the lecture, Mao looked"},{"startTime":719.483,"endTime":719.913,"body":"to creative disorder within China, but he also used that strategy of disorder overseas through"},{"startTime":719.913,"endTime":728.525,"body":"support for peasantry support for violence."},{"startTime":730.225,"endTime":736.605,"body":"Mao rejected peaceful transition by a national bourgeoisie as quote preposterous."},{"startTime":737.675,"endTime":740.085,"body":"Instead, he looked to insurgency."},{"startTime":741.575,"endTime":746.811,"body":"China could not afford to support Soviet style heavy industrialization to route to modernity, and"},{"startTime":746.811,"endTime":749.605,"body":"any case it didn't do that at home."},{"startTime":751.845,"endTime":756.855,"body":"Instead, what you have are things like the support for the shining path in China."},{"startTime":757.035,"endTime":763.95,"body":"In, uh, Peru, it's true that the Soviets did on occasions themselves support insurgency, but"},{"startTime":763.95,"endTime":766.255,"body":"only to counter the Chinese."},{"startTime":768.595,"endTime":774.209,"body":"As China itself descended into internal chaos in the culture of evolution, Beijing lost leverage"},{"startTime":774.209,"endTime":776.455,"body":"with governments in the third world."},{"startTime":777.195,"endTime":781.855,"body":"And the continued appeal of Maoism was not to the leaders of the third world."},{"startTime":782.075,"endTime":789.74,"body":"It was to these people here, like the shining path of movement led by Maoist"},{"startTime":789.74,"endTime":796.895,"body":"intellectuals, uh, appealing to, uh, the rural areas against both American and Soviet imperialism."},{"startTime":797.995,"endTime":803.682,"body":"So what I'm saying here then is that the global Cold War was a battle"},{"startTime":803.682,"endTime":807.095,"body":"between different views of modernity and different economic systems."},{"startTime":808.475,"endTime":813.92,"body":"In the 1950s and sixties, it still seemed that the Soviet Union was a real"},{"startTime":813.92,"endTime":815.735,"body":"threat to the United States."},{"startTime":816.845,"endTime":819.295,"body":"Some of us are old enough to remember Sputnik."},{"startTime":820.955,"endTime":826.4,"body":"It seemed as if the Soviet Union had won the space race, that it was"},{"startTime":826.4,"endTime":828.215,"body":"a technologically advanced military power."},{"startTime":830.005,"endTime":837.41,"body":"Koff announced that he would overtake the United States as an industrial power within 15"},{"startTime":837.41,"endTime":843.335,"body":"years, and that claim was treated as serious in Washington in 1957."},{"startTime":843.795,"endTime":848.975,"body":"Mao aimed to overtake Britain at that point."},{"startTime":849.065,"endTime":856.043,"body":"Still the world's second largest economy within 15 years now, in that attempt to overtake"},{"startTime":856.043,"endTime":856.508,"body":"the Soviet Union and Britain, within 15 years, the Soviet Union and China took different"},{"startTime":856.508,"endTime":856.973,"body":"routes as they tried to catch up with a major capitalist economies in the Soviet"},{"startTime":856.973,"endTime":870.465,"body":"Union."},{"startTime":871.135,"endTime":876.585,"body":"Marxism collapsed in the attempt to create markets in China."},{"startTime":877.335,"endTime":881.665,"body":"Markets remained but under the control of Marxists."},{"startTime":882.645,"endTime":886.665,"body":"And what I want to look at now is how that divergence took place."},{"startTime":887.965,"endTime":895.165,"body":"And I'll start with the Soviet Union, a movement that I call from command economy"},{"startTime":895.165,"endTime":896.125,"body":"to kleptocracy."},{"startTime":899.555,"endTime":902.165,"body":"I'll start with Joseph Stalin."},{"startTime":902.825,"endTime":909.384,"body":"In 1929, he announced that was to be the year of a great breakthrough, a"},{"startTime":909.384,"endTime":912.445,"body":"quote as you see on the screen."},{"startTime":912.455,"endTime":918.297,"body":"There, we are going full steam ahead to socialism along the road of industrialization, leaving"},{"startTime":918.297,"endTime":920.245,"body":"behind our traditional Russian backwardness."},{"startTime":920.865,"endTime":925.506,"body":"We are becoming a country of metal, a country of the automobile, a country of"},{"startTime":925.506,"endTime":926.125,"body":"the tractor."},{"startTime":927.985,"endTime":931.805,"body":"He would show that North American capitalism was not the future."},{"startTime":933.225,"endTime":936.085,"body":"Now the breakthrough involved a number of features."},{"startTime":937.145,"endTime":944.423,"body":"The first and tragically was the collectivization of agriculture designed to feed cities and release"},{"startTime":944.423,"endTime":946.365,"body":"labor for heavy industrialization."},{"startTime":947.465,"endTime":953.445,"body":"In 19 28, 90 6% of the sewn area were still farmed by peasants."},{"startTime":954.265,"endTime":956.925,"body":"In 1940, it was under 10%."},{"startTime":958.785,"endTime":963.285,"body":"The labor that was released, that that would then be used for heavy industrialization."},{"startTime":963.435,"endTime":970.685,"body":"Like here at Magneta Gok, it was a machine building rather than consumer goods."},{"startTime":971.655,"endTime":974.885,"body":"Based upon industrial cities being built up from scratch,"},{"startTime":977.065,"endTime":979.085,"body":"It was a highly centralized economy."},{"startTime":980.055,"endTime":985.605,"body":"Large plants specialized in particular products spread across all the republics."},{"startTime":987.435,"endTime":993.772,"body":"They would then, in like an interconnected supply chains, would pull those products together right"},{"startTime":993.772,"endTime":994.195,"body":"across the whole of the Soviet Union was planned as one, the materials being allocated"},{"startTime":994.195,"endTime":1002.645,"body":"by planners rather than by Marcus."},{"startTime":1002.745,"endTime":1008.485,"body":"And price signals, output targets set by payment against the plan."},{"startTime":1009.405,"endTime":1016.83,"body":"Regardless of quality or whether anybody wanted the goods at all, the economy was also"},{"startTime":1016.83,"endTime":1017.325,"body":"closed."},{"startTime":1017.955,"endTime":1022.805,"body":"International trade was limited by state trading without market prices."},{"startTime":1022.985,"endTime":1028.441,"body":"It relied largely upon barter one-to-one exchange with other countries insofar as there was any"},{"startTime":1028.441,"endTime":1028.805,"body":"exchange."},{"startTime":1030.223,"endTime":1036.4,"body":"And finally, there was to be a new type of Soviet citizen who would express"},{"startTime":1036.4,"endTime":1042.165,"body":"patriotic re revolutionary duty in working hard for the advancement of the Soviet Union."},{"startTime":1044.905,"endTime":1046.795,"body":"That was the 1930s obviously."},{"startTime":1046.795,"endTime":1049.355,"body":"Then we have the disruption of the, of the war."},{"startTime":1049.975,"endTime":1057.675,"body":"At the end of the war, after 1945, Soviet production rebounded, but with certain characteristics."},{"startTime":1058.295,"endTime":1062.595,"body":"The economy was militarized with even tighter centralized control."},{"startTime":1063.225,"endTime":1067.771,"body":"With the use of forced labor and with closed towns in which research was carried"},{"startTime":1067.771,"endTime":1068.075,"body":"out."},{"startTime":1068.735,"endTime":1073.525,"body":"The whole system relied upon very tight political authority for the function of the command"},{"startTime":1073.525,"endTime":1073.845,"body":"economy."},{"startTime":1074.465,"endTime":1079.781,"body":"If that authority was weakened, it would very difficult to maintain even the limited efficiency"},{"startTime":1079.781,"endTime":1080.845,"body":"which was achieved."},{"startTime":1082.925,"endTime":1087.305,"body":"Now, this command economy did not work as theory predicted."},{"startTime":1088.165,"endTime":1093.745,"body":"It didn't necessarily remove wasteful competitions and, and meet needs in a rational way."},{"startTime":1094.565,"endTime":1099.185,"body":"By the final decades of the Soviet Union, it was facing serious problems."},{"startTime":1100.205,"endTime":1106.126,"body":"By the time Gorbachev came to par, first of all, planners didn't know what the"},{"startTime":1106.126,"endTime":1107.705,"body":"preferences of consumers were."},{"startTime":1108.405,"endTime":1113.148,"body":"The only close link between producers and consumers was for the military and a space"},{"startTime":1113.148,"endTime":1113.465,"body":"race."},{"startTime":1114.685,"endTime":1120.885,"body":"It didn't work in the kitchen debate where, uh, this seems that the Soviet Union"},{"startTime":1120.885,"endTime":1121.299,"body":"was not supplying the goods that were there being shown by, uh, vice President Nixon"},{"startTime":1121.299,"endTime":1121.712,"body":"managers had little incentive to be efficient because success rested upon meeting a target, not"},{"startTime":1121.712,"endTime":1136.595,"body":"upon the quality or profitability of the goods."},{"startTime":1137.995,"endTime":1141.755,"body":"Repression and restriction of the lives of workers meant they had little motivation."},{"startTime":1142.695,"endTime":1143.195,"body":"Now they did."},{"startTime":1143.195,"endTime":1144.595,"body":"The workers did."},{"startTime":1144.595,"endTime":1146.115,"body":"The managers have much motivation."},{"startTime":1147.305,"endTime":1155.22,"body":"Workers though were heavily dependent upon the factory for housing, healthcare, access to scarce goods"},{"startTime":1155.22,"endTime":1158.915,"body":"workers, colluded with managers, workers were absentees."},{"startTime":1159.025,"endTime":1159.875,"body":"They were alcoholic."},{"startTime":1159.875,"endTime":1164.795,"body":"They were producing poor work quality, but the managers ignored that on condition."},{"startTime":1164.795,"endTime":1170.135,"body":"They turned up at the end of the planning cycle to what was called storm,"},{"startTime":1170.135,"endTime":1171.915,"body":"to meet the target managers."},{"startTime":1172.145,"endTime":1176.555,"body":"Stockpile materials, employ more work as they were necessary to meet that target."},{"startTime":1176.895,"endTime":1182.802,"body":"As the clock was ticking towards the end of the year, the weakness of the"},{"startTime":1182.802,"endTime":1183.195,"body":"official economy to supply consumer goods and inputs meant that there was an informal economy"},{"startTime":1183.195,"endTime":1193.435,"body":"ranging from a few goods pilfered by workers to large scale corruption."},{"startTime":1194.245,"endTime":1200.315,"body":"State factories employed agents to swap goods unofficially outside the planning system."},{"startTime":1201.105,"endTime":1206.475,"body":"Individuals exchange goods and favors, such as access to medical care or to education."},{"startTime":1207.425,"endTime":1211.275,"body":"This system relied upon reciprocity and trust."},{"startTime":1211.775,"endTime":1215.595,"body":"In other words, it was outside planning, but not a market economy."},{"startTime":1216.855,"endTime":1219.035,"body":"And that system was very close to collapse."},{"startTime":1219.585,"endTime":1226.875,"body":"When Gorbachev became general secretary in 1985, he tried to introduce reforms ika."},{"startTime":1227.375,"endTime":1228.075,"body":"It didn't work."},{"startTime":1229.455,"endTime":1231.075,"body":"So what was he attempting to do?"},{"startTime":1231.415,"endTime":1232.235,"body":"Why didn't it work?"},{"startTime":1233.425,"endTime":1237.348,"body":"Well, first of all, he thought that if only he could use modern computers that"},{"startTime":1237.348,"endTime":1238.395,"body":"would make planning work."},{"startTime":1238.735,"endTime":1240.635,"body":"It didn't, it made it work, work even worse."},{"startTime":1242.435,"endTime":1249.479,"body":"Secondly, he thought he could lower subsidies to state enterprises, and they would then make"},{"startTime":1249.479,"endTime":1254.645,"body":"money by selling goods above the production target in the market."},{"startTime":1254.945,"endTime":1259.862,"body":"But there was no market, and the managers had no experience in setting prices of"},{"startTime":1259.862,"endTime":1262.485,"body":"ensuring that labor produced goods of sufficient quality."},{"startTime":1264.865,"endTime":1270.565,"body":"He also thought he would have wage reform to overturn those informal understandings."},{"startTime":1270.645,"endTime":1271.165,"body":"I mentioned."},{"startTime":1271.705,"endTime":1273.445,"body":"He increased wage differentials."},{"startTime":1273.905,"endTime":1275.325,"body":"He changed grading of workers."},{"startTime":1275.385,"endTime":1276.965,"body":"He often meant downgrading."},{"startTime":1278.585,"endTime":1283.928,"body":"He attacked alcoholism in return for promise of a higher standard of living and political"},{"startTime":1283.928,"endTime":1284.285,"body":"liberalization."},{"startTime":1285.585,"endTime":1291.135,"body":"The result of that was simply to overturn established ways of life and deals between"},{"startTime":1291.135,"endTime":1292.245,"body":"managers and workers."},{"startTime":1293.035,"endTime":1299.263,"body":"Disrupt that, but with continued shortage of consumer goods, inflation, discontent, the same time a"},{"startTime":1299.263,"endTime":1299.678,"body":"fall in export earnings from oil, the cost of the war in Afghanistan, the arms,"},{"startTime":1299.678,"endTime":1300.093,"body":"the race with the United States, and the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of 1986 put the"},{"startTime":1300.093,"endTime":1312.965,"body":"economy under pressure."},{"startTime":1313.455,"endTime":1315.205,"body":"State finances were collapsing."},{"startTime":1315.335,"endTime":1319.805,"body":"There were high levels of illicit alcohol consumption demands for higher wages."},{"startTime":1320.605,"endTime":1323.085,"body":"A failure of coordination between enterprises."},{"startTime":1323.585,"endTime":1329.078,"body":"The old system of planning and favors was collapsing without a market economy to replace"},{"startTime":1329.078,"endTime":1329.445,"body":"it."},{"startTime":1330.625,"endTime":1332.005,"body":"So what did Gorbachev do?"},{"startTime":1333.145,"endTime":1340.3,"body":"In 1988, he decided to end the Communist party's monopoly of power to try and"},{"startTime":1340.3,"endTime":1342.685,"body":"secure popular support for reform."},{"startTime":1344.085,"endTime":1348.472,"body":"A third of the seats in the Congress of people's deputies was reserved for the"},{"startTime":1348.472,"endTime":1348.765,"body":"communists."},{"startTime":1349.225,"endTime":1350.925,"body":"The rest opened a competition."},{"startTime":1352.145,"endTime":1354.005,"body":"The result was not as he expected."},{"startTime":1354.505,"endTime":1360.0,"body":"The elections of March, 1989 led to criticism both by the communists in their third"},{"startTime":1360.0,"endTime":1362.565,"body":"of their seats for giving away power."},{"startTime":1363.585,"endTime":1371.525,"body":"And by liberal reformers, the republics, particularly the Baltic and Ukraine, became separatists."},{"startTime":1371.835,"endTime":1373.565,"body":"They voted for independence."},{"startTime":1374.265,"endTime":1379.045,"body":"The remaining republics like Russia saw the writing on the wall."},{"startTime":1379.045,"endTime":1381.045,"body":"They stopped paying taxes to the Soviet Union."},{"startTime":1381.825,"endTime":1386.405,"body":"Supply chains across the whole of the Soviet Union I talked about were ruptured."},{"startTime":1388.145,"endTime":1396.26,"body":"So the severe hardship, which led to the attempted coup, uh, in Moscow in February,"},{"startTime":1396.26,"endTime":1398.965,"body":"1990, sorry, in August, 1991."},{"startTime":1399.105,"endTime":1400.285,"body":"Beg your pardon, demonstrations."},{"startTime":1400.285,"endTime":1401.525,"body":"And then attempted coup."},{"startTime":1401.625,"endTime":1405.805,"body":"In August, 1991, the rise of Boris Yeltsin as president of Russia."},{"startTime":1406.635,"endTime":1413.642,"body":"Essentially, Russia had defeated the Soviet Union, which was dissolved in 1991, a replaced with"},{"startTime":1413.642,"endTime":1416.445,"body":"a loose confederation of independent states."},{"startTime":1418.795,"endTime":1427.101,"body":"Yeltsin proceeded with economic reform, and he worked with this man, uh, Caar as the"},{"startTime":1427.101,"endTime":1432.085,"body":"finance minister, economic minister who embarked on shock therapy."},{"startTime":1433.595,"endTime":1437.455,"body":"He said what was needed was a swift translation to a market economy."},{"startTime":1438.475,"endTime":1443.116,"body":"And he later explained the strategy as you see on the board there, there wasn't"},{"startTime":1443.116,"endTime":1443.735,"body":"much choice."},{"startTime":1444.755,"endTime":1447.455,"body":"You had to overturn it straight away."},{"startTime":1450.715,"endTime":1455.945,"body":"You couldn't go for dual track approach of a planned economy and a market economy,"},{"startTime":1455.945,"endTime":1458.735,"body":"of a command economy and a market economy."},{"startTime":1458.945,"endTime":1463.335,"body":"There had to be a sudden and complete switch from one to the other."},{"startTime":1464.675,"endTime":1470.665,"body":"And in doing that, GAAR and the market reformers worked with the IMF and the"},{"startTime":1470.665,"endTime":1476.655,"body":"World Bank at the time when they were committed deeply to market and financial liberalization."},{"startTime":1477.405,"endTime":1483.771,"body":"They were recommending when their, uh, the, uh, the head of the IMF went to"},{"startTime":1483.771,"endTime":1488.015,"body":"Moscow in 1990, spending cuts, tax increases, price liberalization, privatization."},{"startTime":1489.035,"endTime":1493.255,"body":"It wasn't necessarily just an outside improvisation because Gaar himself wanted that."},{"startTime":1493.275,"endTime":1499.143,"body":"He realized that was the only way politically of stopping the old guard, taking back"},{"startTime":1499.143,"endTime":1499.535,"body":"power."},{"startTime":1502.635,"endTime":1507.335,"body":"But it's also a very politically risky process of privatization."},{"startTime":1509.105,"endTime":1515.175,"body":"State enterprises had a range of different stakeholders within them."},{"startTime":1516.005,"endTime":1518.135,"body":"Workers had the social welfare."},{"startTime":1518.355,"endTime":1521.495,"body":"As I said, managers saw the plants as their own."},{"startTime":1521.945,"endTime":1524.015,"body":"Local government needed the revenue from them."},{"startTime":1524.315,"endTime":1527.175,"body":"The citizens as a whole had the claim to ownership."},{"startTime":1527.795,"endTime":1535.648,"body":"So Gaar opted to give all the citizens of the Soviet Union of Russia vouchers"},{"startTime":1535.648,"endTime":1542.455,"body":"those vouchers, privatization vouchers could be exchanged for shares in privatized state companies."},{"startTime":1543.085,"endTime":1544.135,"body":"They were tradable."},{"startTime":1545.075,"endTime":1548.015,"body":"Of course, most citizens didn't understand how they worked."},{"startTime":1548.205,"endTime":1553.741,"body":"They were bought up by financially aware Russians who took control of state enterprises and"},{"startTime":1553.741,"endTime":1556.695,"body":"made huge profits the basis of the oligarchs."},{"startTime":1557.565,"endTime":1562.892,"body":"Meanwhile, ordinary Russians suffered from a loss of welfare, higher taxes, lower food subsidies, and"},{"startTime":1562.892,"endTime":1563.247,"body":"it was also a failure to stabilize the currency, which led to hyperinflation of over"},{"startTime":1563.247,"endTime":1568.575,"body":"1000%."},{"startTime":1568.835,"endTime":1570.175,"body":"By the end of 1992."},{"startTime":1572.485,"endTime":1579.092,"body":"Yeltsin then ditched Gaar because he needed support from businesses in the, uh, elections, which"},{"startTime":1579.092,"endTime":1581.295,"body":"are coming up in 1996."},{"startTime":1581.355,"endTime":1587.733,"body":"So Gaar was replaced by the head of GA prom, and he embarked on further"},{"startTime":1587.733,"endTime":1591.135,"body":"privatization in the form of loans for shares."},{"startTime":1592.595,"endTime":1597.015,"body":"So banks and other financial institutions would make loans to the state."},{"startTime":1597.235,"endTime":1602.56,"body":"And if the state didn't repay them, by the end of September, 1996, the creditors"},{"startTime":1602.56,"endTime":1605.045,"body":"took over the control of the companies."},{"startTime":1605.395,"endTime":1609.781,"body":"Well, you can imagine the loans were made by banks, controlled by the oligarchs, who"},{"startTime":1609.781,"endTime":1610.073,"body":"then managed to get hold of the share of the companies on which they had"},{"startTime":1610.073,"endTime":1615.045,"body":"given the loans."},{"startTime":1616.145,"endTime":1621.045,"body":"So this is where you get the capture economy or an oligarchic kleptocracy."},{"startTime":1622.305,"endTime":1625.285,"body":"The state lost from plundering by these oligarchs."},{"startTime":1625.285,"endTime":1626.405,"body":"The citizens lost welfare."},{"startTime":1626.985,"endTime":1630.565,"body":"The gross domestic product fell by a third in the early 1990s."},{"startTime":1631.285,"endTime":1634.125,"body":"Unemployment went up to 22% by 1998."},{"startTime":1634.585,"endTime":1641.765,"body":"And male life expectancy fell from 64 in 1991 to 57 in 1994."},{"startTime":1642.865,"endTime":1647.565,"body":"So it was not altogether, um, a successful, um, outcome."},{"startTime":1648.385,"endTime":1652.535,"body":"The IMF got a lot of the blame as for being, coming from outside and"},{"startTime":1652.535,"endTime":1656.685,"body":"doing the wish of the of the West, it was ease to blame the outsiders."},{"startTime":1657.065,"endTime":1662.631,"body":"Of course, the IMF was not above blame, but an awful lot of it relied"},{"startTime":1662.631,"endTime":1667.085,"body":"upon internal forces, political forces, uh, which are I'm talking, talking about."},{"startTime":1669.585,"endTime":1673.285,"body":"And that takes his course through to, uh, 1998 financial crisis."},{"startTime":1674.065,"endTime":1682.39,"body":"And in 2000, the new president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, who was welcomed to replace"},{"startTime":1682.39,"endTime":1685.165,"body":"the chaos of Yeltsin's government."},{"startTime":1685.945,"endTime":1691.016,"body":"He seemed to be engaging with the G eight of major economies, hopes that Russia"},{"startTime":1691.016,"endTime":1693.045,"body":"would join a liberal global order."},{"startTime":1693.785,"endTime":1696.045,"body":"But as we now know, that was false."},{"startTime":1696.735,"endTime":1702.727,"body":"Putin turned to Russian nationalism to roll back the collapse of the Soviet Union, the"},{"startTime":1702.727,"endTime":1704.725,"body":"independence of Ukraine in 1991."},{"startTime":1705.585,"endTime":1711.15,"body":"He took back control over some private companies like Ucos Oil and state companies, like"},{"startTime":1711.15,"endTime":1711.521,"body":"G Prom gave him large profits for the state and for his own personal benefit,"},{"startTime":1711.521,"endTime":1711.892,"body":"Russia was becoming more and more dependent upon oil and gas revenue, which is over"},{"startTime":1711.892,"endTime":1723.765,"body":"50% of state revenues."},{"startTime":1723.905,"endTime":1732.605,"body":"In 2014, Putin had learned from the financial crisis of 1998 that macroeconomic stability was"},{"startTime":1732.605,"endTime":1733.185,"body":"needed, but that went with a state dominated kleptocracy, answerable to him, and relying upon"},{"startTime":1733.185,"endTime":1741.885,"body":"authoritarianism."},{"startTime":1745.085,"endTime":1748.905,"body":"So the question we face now is what will happen to Putin's regime?"},{"startTime":1749.325,"endTime":1752.465,"body":"Can it survive or could there be another crisis?"},{"startTime":1752.885,"endTime":1757.94,"body":"As in the last days of the Soviet Union, history had certainly not ended with"},{"startTime":1757.94,"endTime":1759.625,"body":"the triumph of democratic capitalism."},{"startTime":1760.925,"endTime":1767.366,"body":"But asan now go on to show, in the case of China, authoritarian capitalism could"},{"startTime":1767.366,"endTime":1768.225,"body":"deliver growth."},{"startTime":1769.585,"endTime":1774.525,"body":"Russia failed to handle the transition from Marxism to Marx markets."},{"startTime":1775.585,"endTime":1780.925,"body":"How did China manage the transition to markets with Marxism?"},{"startTime":1781.945,"endTime":1788.845,"body":"So this takes me to China socialism or perhaps capitalism with Chinese characteristics."},{"startTime":1792.315,"endTime":1796.245,"body":"Well, the Communist Party came to par in 1949."},{"startTime":1798.215,"endTime":1806.217,"body":"Under Mao, China experienced three disasters, the great leap forward, the great famine and the"},{"startTime":1806.217,"endTime":1807.285,"body":"cultural revolution."},{"startTime":1808.555,"endTime":1816.396,"body":"What it did not experience was Soviet style, central command economy with heavy industry and"},{"startTime":1816.396,"endTime":1817.965,"body":"large collective farms."},{"startTime":1818.205,"endTime":1824.839,"body":"It only temporarily, the monstrous rule of Mao had the unintended consequence of allowing his"},{"startTime":1824.839,"endTime":1825.281,"body":"successors to adopt a more flexible approach to reform that was possible in the Soviet"},{"startTime":1825.281,"endTime":1833.685,"body":"Union or Russia under gaar."},{"startTime":1835.705,"endTime":1843.925,"body":"Now, Lenin and Stalin all viewed peasants as what they called potatoes in a sack."},{"startTime":1844.905,"endTime":1848.045,"body":"The revolution would come from the urban proletariat."},{"startTime":1849.185,"endTime":1856.433,"body":"By contrast, Mao favored power resting upon the countryside, wisdom he said, resided in the"},{"startTime":1856.433,"endTime":1856.916,"body":"rural masses rather than technical experts and intellectuals who needed to be reeducated in the"},{"startTime":1856.916,"endTime":1864.165,"body":"fields."},{"startTime":1865.065,"endTime":1870.725,"body":"To quote Mao the humblest of the cleverest, the privileged of the dumbest."},{"startTime":1872.505,"endTime":1879.645,"body":"In 1958, he launched the great leap forward, what he called a rush advance."},{"startTime":1880.385,"endTime":1881.725,"body":"So what did this consist of?"},{"startTime":1881.995,"endTime":1887.376,"body":"Well, one was building dams, diverting rivers, but not using the sort of technical experts"},{"startTime":1887.376,"endTime":1890.605,"body":"that the Soviets had there with the Aswan Dam."},{"startTime":1891.345,"endTime":1897.315,"body":"Rather, thousands of people with hand cuts were diverted from agriculture to construct poorly designed,"},{"startTime":1897.315,"endTime":1903.285,"body":"wasteful schemes, which often failed the plan to divert the tau river from the south."},{"startTime":1903.305,"endTime":1909.98,"body":"The arid north diverted 3.4 million workers, 70% of the workforce of the whole province"},{"startTime":1909.98,"endTime":1912.205,"body":"diverted them away from agriculture."},{"startTime":1913.505,"endTime":1920.386,"body":"He also rejected central planning and relied upon local party avers to create self-sufficient regional"},{"startTime":1920.386,"endTime":1920.845,"body":"economies."},{"startTime":1921.585,"endTime":1927.54,"body":"He believed Mao believed that hostility from both the Soviets and the United States would"},{"startTime":1927.54,"endTime":1929.525,"body":"be very dangerous to China."},{"startTime":1930.035,"endTime":1935.633,"body":"Therefore, he wanted what we could call a cellular economy, each region being able to"},{"startTime":1935.633,"endTime":1936.006,"body":"operate independently rather than that Soviet style of linking it all together in one interconnected"},{"startTime":1936.006,"endTime":1941.605,"body":"economy."},{"startTime":1943.545,"endTime":1947.801,"body":"So these areas could then later on, compete with each other as I I'll point"},{"startTime":1947.801,"endTime":1948.085,"body":"out."},{"startTime":1949.985,"endTime":1955.485,"body":"And he did not rely upon the forced rapid growth of heavy industry."},{"startTime":1956.065,"endTime":1961.748,"body":"As you see here on this slide, he encouraged peasants to develop little backyard furnaces"},{"startTime":1961.748,"endTime":1962.885,"body":"to produce steel."},{"startTime":1963.945,"endTime":1970.725,"body":"The slogan was every household of factory, every home ringing with a dinging dong sound."},{"startTime":1972.025,"endTime":1979.277,"body":"So these small backyard furnaces, again, diverted labor from agriculture into inefficient production of poor"},{"startTime":1979.277,"endTime":1980.245,"body":"quality steel."},{"startTime":1982.345,"endTime":1989.662,"body":"He did embark upon collectivization to bring farmers together in rigidly organized groupings with communal"},{"startTime":1989.662,"endTime":1993.565,"body":"kitchens, as in this rather fanciful propaganda picture."},{"startTime":1994.715,"endTime":2001.92,"body":"Workers were under strict discipline directed by inexperienced carders who didn't really understand agriculture and"},{"startTime":2001.92,"endTime":2008.645,"body":"destroyed the environment through schemes of deep plowing, for example, which destroyed the soil."},{"startTime":2012.105,"endTime":2017.263,"body":"But of course, you did dare not say to the people above you that the,"},{"startTime":2017.263,"endTime":2017.606,"body":"that the, uh, crops were not being produced because it was expected to increase the"},{"startTime":2017.606,"endTime":2022.765,"body":"yields."},{"startTime":2023.225,"endTime":2025.965,"body":"So there was what was called an exaggeration frenzy."},{"startTime":2027.145,"endTime":2030.285,"body":"One group would say to the next group up the up the H hierarchy."},{"startTime":2030.425,"endTime":2032.405,"body":"Yes, we've met, we've all met our target."},{"startTime":2032.665,"endTime":2035.325,"body":"And as you went up the system, it became more than more."},{"startTime":2035.665,"endTime":2038.853,"body":"It was argued at the, uh, at the end of the whole system, what are"},{"startTime":2038.853,"endTime":2041.405,"body":"we going to do with all the surplus food that we had?"},{"startTime":2042.355,"endTime":2048.857,"body":"Well, in fact, there was a famine, 30 to 60 million excess deaths between 1958"},{"startTime":2048.857,"endTime":2049.725,"body":"and 62."},{"startTime":2051.185,"endTime":2052.445,"body":"How did Mao respond?"},{"startTime":2052.554,"endTime":2054.364,"body":"Well with his usual callousness?"},{"startTime":2055.275,"endTime":2059.661,"body":"When there is, I quote, when there is not enough to eat, people starve to"},{"startTime":2059.661,"endTime":2059.953,"body":"death, it is better to let half the people die so the other half can"},{"startTime":2059.953,"endTime":2064.925,"body":"eat their film."},{"startTime":2066.235,"endTime":2071.855,"body":"By 1961, some senior officials were admitting problems, but who could be blamed?"},{"startTime":2072.005,"endTime":2076.775,"body":"Well, not Mao, the blame was placed upon the, the lower level people."},{"startTime":2079.514,"endTime":2085.139,"body":"Don Joing, who was at this stage, the Secretary General of the Communist Party, proposed"},{"startTime":2085.139,"endTime":2087.014,"body":"returning land to the peasants."},{"startTime":2089.585,"endTime":2091.725,"body":"Mao saw that as a threat to his schemes."},{"startTime":2092.304,"endTime":2100.651,"body":"And in 1966, he launched the great proletarian cultural revolution to remove a bunch of"},{"startTime":2100.651,"endTime":2101.765,"body":"counter-revolutionary revisionists."},{"startTime":2103.065,"endTime":2105.085,"body":"He attacked the upper levels of the party."},{"startTime":2105.225,"endTime":2108.365,"body":"So Mao turned himself against the party itself."},{"startTime":2109.105,"endTime":2112.925,"body":"He used populous language to turn the masses against the party."},{"startTime":2113.105,"endTime":2119.376,"body":"The red guards against officials who were publicly humiliated, including d who was denounced as"},{"startTime":2119.376,"endTime":2121.885,"body":"a leader of the capitalist rotors."},{"startTime":2122.785,"endTime":2129.104,"body":"Mao was deliberately using nationwide chaos, as he called it, to create, and I quote,"},{"startTime":2129.104,"endTime":2129.525,"body":"greater order throughout the land by quote, roasting the bureaucrats for a while without scorching"},{"startTime":2129.525,"endTime":2135.845,"body":"them."},{"startTime":2136.385,"endTime":2138.085,"body":"In fact, they were more than scorched."},{"startTime":2138.085,"endTime":2140.605,"body":"They were, they were singed and burnt."},{"startTime":2141.165,"endTime":2144.085,"body":"Millions more people died in the culture revolution."},{"startTime":2146.265,"endTime":2148.405,"body":"Mao died in 1976."},{"startTime":2149.105,"endTime":2153.845,"body":"His, his widow and the gang of four tried to keep Maos a policies going."},{"startTime":2154.585,"endTime":2160.988,"body":"Uh, but the crucially, the, uh, the people's army sided against them took the, the"},{"startTime":2160.988,"endTime":2161.415,"body":"line of the reformers, uh, that the new premier Hueng, who was premier from 1976"},{"startTime":2161.415,"endTime":2168.245,"body":"to 1980."},{"startTime":2168.945,"endTime":2173.325,"body":"So with support of the Army, he started to take a cautious approach."},{"startTime":2174.665,"endTime":2180.285,"body":"He obtained some modern technology by purchasing entire new factories off the shelf."},{"startTime":2180.385,"endTime":2184.845,"body":"New factories paid for by export earnings of natural resources."},{"startTime":2185.865,"endTime":2189.845,"body":"He didn't wish to expose Chinese industry to the world economy."},{"startTime":2190.665,"endTime":2195.285,"body":"He still favored central planning of bureaucracy in place of localism."},{"startTime":2195.465,"endTime":2199.121,"body":"So it was going more on the lines of the Soviets, but the approach didn't"},{"startTime":2199.121,"endTime":2199.365,"body":"work."},{"startTime":2200.425,"endTime":2205.587,"body":"Buying modern technology off the shelf was not suited to Chinese conditions, and any case"},{"startTime":2205.587,"endTime":2208.685,"body":"there was insufficient foreign reserves to pay for it."},{"startTime":2210.395,"endTime":2216.816,"body":"This is where d then came in, although he was never holding a top position,"},{"startTime":2216.816,"endTime":2217.244,"body":"a premier or chairman of the party by December, 1978, he was the most powerful"},{"startTime":2217.244,"endTime":2217.672,"body":"figure in the Chinese government, alongside Joji Zang, who was the, uh, premier and then"},{"startTime":2217.672,"endTime":2233.085,"body":"became general secretary until he fell from power."},{"startTime":2233.255,"endTime":2236.765,"body":"After the Ian and Square massacre in 1989,"},{"startTime":2240.405,"endTime":2243.965,"body":"D uh, Dan and XO were both disgraced in the cultural revolution."},{"startTime":2245.305,"endTime":2253.348,"body":"xo, um, reappeared as party secretary in one province where he gave freedom to household"},{"startTime":2253.348,"endTime":2253.885,"body":"production."},{"startTime":2254.755,"endTime":2255.805,"body":"Then he moved to Beijing."},{"startTime":2256.185,"endTime":2260.045,"body":"He continued that focus upon what he call household production."},{"startTime":2261.025,"endTime":2266.125,"body":"If you now read any official history of the, uh, economic reforms in China, he's"},{"startTime":2266.125,"endTime":2266.805,"body":"not mentioned."},{"startTime":2267.275,"endTime":2269.005,"body":"He's not, he's not, not a figure."},{"startTime":2269.635,"endTime":2274.082,"body":"He's, he was a lost part after Tiananmen Square, both T and Square, and he"},{"startTime":2274.082,"endTime":2275.565,"body":"are written out of history."},{"startTime":2276.185,"endTime":2280.816,"body":"In reality, he was actually more important than Dun, who is now given all the"},{"startTime":2280.816,"endTime":2281.125,"body":"credit."},{"startTime":2281.505,"endTime":2286.125,"body":"But together those two people were what I call the marketeers."},{"startTime":2288.945,"endTime":2294.525,"body":"Don saw that the cultural evolution had harmed scientific and technical improvement."},{"startTime":2295.515,"endTime":2303.87,"body":"What they wanted to produce was what they called socialist modernization, based upon four cardinal"},{"startTime":2303.87,"endTime":2304.427,"body":"principles, the socialist road, dictatorship of the proletariat leadership by the party, and following the"},{"startTime":2304.427,"endTime":2316.125,"body":"correct path of Marxism, Leninism, and Maoism."},{"startTime":2316.385,"endTime":2320.125,"body":"So that looks all very, uh, if you like, orthodox Marxism."},{"startTime":2320.705,"endTime":2322.485,"body":"But what did it mean in principle?"},{"startTime":2324.595,"endTime":2333.255,"body":"Well, Don saw that China was lagging because of imperialism and feudalism, not because socialism"},{"startTime":2333.255,"endTime":2335.565,"body":"was inferior to capitalism."},{"startTime":2336.635,"endTime":2341.514,"body":"Well, he said what we need to do is use capitalist methods in the service"},{"startTime":2341.514,"endTime":2342.165,"body":"of socialism."},{"startTime":2342.945,"endTime":2349.845,"body":"We need to use capitalist profits, incentives, markets, and technology to create the material base"},{"startTime":2349.845,"endTime":2351.685,"body":"for a socialist society."},{"startTime":2352.745,"endTime":2353.965,"body":"It is famous for Mark."},{"startTime":2354.365,"endTime":2358.715,"body":"I quote, it does not matter if the cat is white or black, as long"},{"startTime":2358.715,"endTime":2361.325,"body":"as it catches mice, it is a good cat."},{"startTime":2362.585,"endTime":2367.085,"body":"So China needed a strong economy if it was not to be subjected to domination."},{"startTime":2368.425,"endTime":2373.656,"body":"He, as he said, the purpose of socialism is to make the country rich and"},{"startTime":2373.656,"endTime":2374.005,"body":"strong."},{"startTime":2375.025,"endTime":2376.605,"body":"The task was development."},{"startTime":2377.705,"endTime":2384.252,"body":"Any opposition to development, even if it was looked capitalist, was in itself an opposition"},{"startTime":2384.252,"endTime":2385.125,"body":"to socialism."},{"startTime":2386.465,"endTime":2394.285,"body":"So his aim was to use methods, but not to create a bourgeoisie, a bourgeoisie."},{"startTime":2394.425,"endTime":2398.725,"body":"He said, would eng engage in corruption and profiteering?"},{"startTime":2399.945,"endTime":2405.645,"body":"And there, uh, is his quote, um, against, uh, the super prophets of millionaires."},{"startTime":2407.145,"endTime":2411.085,"body":"So this was socialism with Chinese characteristics."},{"startTime":2413.125,"endTime":2418.465,"body":"His colleague XO went even further in 1984."},{"startTime":2418.525,"endTime":2424.198,"body":"He made a rather ambiguous speech to the Pol Bvo that he said, spontaneous market"},{"startTime":2424.198,"endTime":2427.225,"body":"forces, he'd only apply to a few sectors."},{"startTime":2428.005,"endTime":2432.942,"body":"But then he went on to say, it is no longer true that planning is"},{"startTime":2432.942,"endTime":2435.905,"body":"number one under the law of value number two."},{"startTime":2436.685,"endTime":2441.942,"body":"Now, the implication of that statement is the prices should be determined by supply and"},{"startTime":2441.942,"endTime":2443.345,"body":"demand by the market."},{"startTime":2444.645,"endTime":2451.086,"body":"In 1987, he came close to arguing that anything that led to growth was by"},{"startTime":2451.086,"endTime":2451.945,"body":"definition socialist."},{"startTime":2453.085,"endTime":2459.953,"body":"The central task, he said in the primary stage of socialism was economic development before"},{"startTime":2459.953,"endTime":2461.785,"body":"mature socialism became feasible."},{"startTime":2462.525,"endTime":2467.562,"body":"As he said, whatever is conducive to the growth of the production forces is in"},{"startTime":2467.562,"endTime":2472.265,"body":"keeping with the fundamental interest of the people and is therefore needed by socialism."},{"startTime":2473.025,"endTime":2480.03,"body":"Whatever is detrimental to this growth goes against scientific socialism and is therefore not allowed"},{"startTime":2480.03,"endTime":2480.497,"body":"to exist on, on two occasions, both in 1986 and in 1988, he even toyed"},{"startTime":2480.497,"endTime":2480.964,"body":"with shock therapy, rapid price reform ending of state ownership before pulling back, um, and"},{"startTime":2480.964,"endTime":2499.645,"body":"saying that, uh, that was perhaps not the best way to go."},{"startTime":2500.465,"endTime":2507.365,"body":"The dangers of going too fast was clear inflation protests and above all, Tiananmen Square."},{"startTime":2508.385,"endTime":2515.605,"body":"Now, against those two marketeers, we have what I call the balances."},{"startTime":2516.785,"endTime":2522.045,"body":"People like Chen Yon with his famous theory of the bird cage."},{"startTime":2523.345,"endTime":2527.325,"body":"The bird cage was to contain the market within the plan."},{"startTime":2528.225,"endTime":2532.005,"body":"One cannot hold a bird tightly in one's hand without killing it."},{"startTime":2532.545,"endTime":2536.125,"body":"It must be allowed to fly, but only within its cage."},{"startTime":2536.715,"endTime":2540.685,"body":"Without a cage, it would fly away and become lost."},{"startTime":2541.745,"endTime":2544.725,"body":"So the market must be contained within the plan."},{"startTime":2546.465,"endTime":2547.645,"body":"It was to be cautious."},{"startTime":2548.115,"endTime":2555.123,"body":"Experiments at selective points only, what he called groping for stones to cross the river"},{"startTime":2555.123,"endTime":2555.591,"body":"in the beginning, steps, he said, must be small, walking slowly and above all the"},{"startTime":2555.591,"endTime":2566.805,"body":"form must not undermine what he called socialist spiritual civilization."},{"startTime":2567.145,"endTime":2571.925,"body":"So he also mounted campaigns against corruption and materialism."},{"startTime":2572.665,"endTime":2578.648,"body":"He thought that loosening price controls too much would lead to inflation, social unrest, disruption"},{"startTime":2578.648,"endTime":2579.845,"body":"in the countryside."},{"startTime":2580.385,"endTime":2585.766,"body":"So he wanted a dual track approach, a price controls and planning alongside the liberalized"},{"startTime":2585.766,"endTime":2586.125,"body":"market."},{"startTime":2586.905,"endTime":2590.405,"body":"XO thought it could go faster because that would deliver growth, which solve inflation."},{"startTime":2591.525,"endTime":2597.446,"body":"Chen worried that would actually be too disruptive after Bannan Square, that view, the birdcage"},{"startTime":2597.446,"endTime":2600.605,"body":"view, if you like, was in the ascendant."},{"startTime":2601.105,"endTime":2608.061,"body":"XO was disgraced, but Don was not willing to, um, allow that view to be"},{"startTime":2608.061,"endTime":2608.525,"body":"overcome."},{"startTime":2609.465,"endTime":2614.136,"body":"He believed that Gorbachev had gone the wrong way, that he should not have surrendered"},{"startTime":2614.136,"endTime":2616.005,"body":"the power of the Communist Party."},{"startTime":2616.705,"endTime":2623.285,"body":"So he wanted to maintain authoritarian power, but also to try continue market reform."},{"startTime":2624.705,"endTime":2631.039,"body":"In 1992, we went on what is called the Southern Tour around Southern China, calling"},{"startTime":2631.039,"endTime":2631.461,"body":"for renewed market reform, arguing that China must not be like a woman with bound"},{"startTime":2631.461,"endTime":2639.485,"body":"feet must stride boldly forward."},{"startTime":2639.675,"endTime":2643.005,"body":"That was not just freeing for the, the stepping stones."},{"startTime":2643.665,"endTime":2647.045,"body":"Market economies were not necessarily capitalistic."},{"startTime":2649.025,"endTime":2656.565,"body":"He said, we want capitalism as stepping stones to universal prosperity and richness."},{"startTime":2658.795,"endTime":2661.485,"body":"Okay, so that strategy then comes back."},{"startTime":2662.405,"endTime":2670.605,"body":"I want to suggest that very quickly, eight reasons why Don was able to succeed"},{"startTime":2670.605,"endTime":2673.885,"body":"whilst, uh, Yeltsin and Gaar failed."},{"startTime":2674.255,"endTime":2681.834,"body":"There are eight points, I think, why the strategy of movement forward maintaining Marxism with"},{"startTime":2681.834,"endTime":2682.845,"body":"markets worked."},{"startTime":2683.865,"endTime":2688.525,"body":"The first is that the structural context gave them room for maneuver."},{"startTime":2689.855,"endTime":2697.265,"body":"Those disasters of Mao meant small scale units, rather than massive heavy industries, which developed"},{"startTime":2697.265,"endTime":2702.205,"body":"under Stalin, the cultural evolution, undermined collective or communal approach."},{"startTime":2702.635,"endTime":2704.765,"body":"It's empowered peasant households."},{"startTime":2706.605,"endTime":2713.16,"body":"Secondly, because of this nature of the cellular economy and the small scale peasants ownership"},{"startTime":2713.16,"endTime":2713.597,"body":"that I was talking about, there was scope for local enterprise in what were called"},{"startTime":2713.597,"endTime":2721.465,"body":"Town and Village enterprises."},{"startTime":2723.855,"endTime":2729.736,"body":"This was both based upon household production, if you like, building upon that disaster of"},{"startTime":2729.736,"endTime":2731.305,"body":"Mao's small backyard furnaces."},{"startTime":2731.995,"endTime":2736.105,"body":"These town and village enterprises were able to compete with each other."},{"startTime":2736.335,"endTime":2740.91,"body":"Some were owned collectively by the local authorities, but the largest group of them were"},{"startTime":2740.91,"endTime":2741.825,"body":"owned by families."},{"startTime":2743.655,"endTime":2750.581,"body":"Thirdly, the economy was opened up to the global economy, but within limits to preserve"},{"startTime":2750.581,"endTime":2751.505,"body":"national sovereignty."},{"startTime":2752.085,"endTime":2755.305,"body":"So not a threat to sovereignty as in the Soviet Union or in Russia."},{"startTime":2757.055,"endTime":2760.025,"body":"Dung said, no country can develop by closing its door."},{"startTime":2760.815,"endTime":2764.945,"body":"Isolation landed China in poverty, backwardness and ignorance."},{"startTime":2766.245,"endTime":2773.706,"body":"But that opening up had to be under control of the Chinese government not buying"},{"startTime":2773.706,"endTime":2774.204,"body":"off the shelf plant as had been suggested, I'd say initially, but by f direct"},{"startTime":2774.204,"endTime":2774.701,"body":"investment, inviting multinationals who run factories, ideally through joint ventures, under the control of the"},{"startTime":2774.701,"endTime":2789.625,"body":"Chinese government."},{"startTime":2789.895,"endTime":2791.505,"body":"This would allow the Chinese to learn."},{"startTime":2791.765,"endTime":2796.345,"body":"It would create export capacity, which could then create foreign exchange to get more technology."},{"startTime":2797.285,"endTime":2802.105,"body":"It allowed technology transfer, but under the control of the Chinese government."},{"startTime":2803.385,"endTime":2809.821,"body":"Fourthly, special economic zones on the coast, legally and physically separated from the rest of"},{"startTime":2809.821,"endTime":2812.825,"body":"China, but integrated into the global economy."},{"startTime":2813.125,"endTime":2819.625,"body":"So you weren't undermining the rest of the Chinese economy, which is distinct interior regions"},{"startTime":2819.625,"endTime":2822.225,"body":"protected in the special economic zones."},{"startTime":2822.225,"endTime":2828.595,"body":"You could have foreign investment, but with national sovereignty by the Chinese government, there was"},{"startTime":2828.595,"endTime":2829.02,"body":"no need then to allow foreign investors to come in with multinationals with what done"},{"startTime":2829.02,"endTime":2836.665,"body":"called external decadent ideologies."},{"startTime":2837.885,"endTime":2843.51,"body":"So you are opening up, but maintaining control, fifthly, you actually didn't need that much"},{"startTime":2843.51,"endTime":2848.385,"body":"fallen capital for development because China had an extremely high domestic savings rate."},{"startTime":2849.265,"endTime":2852.405,"body":"The peasants moving to the towns didn't have much social welfare."},{"startTime":2852.635,"endTime":2859.558,"body":"They had to save very high savings rate, interest rates below inflation, which meant that"},{"startTime":2859.558,"endTime":2861.405,"body":"they were losing out."},{"startTime":2861.405,"endTime":2865.525,"body":"But the people who were bothering money were gaining sixthly."},{"startTime":2866.265,"endTime":2874.533,"body":"The economy could grow outta the plan because the advanced heavy industry area was quite"},{"startTime":2874.533,"endTime":2875.085,"body":"small."},{"startTime":2875.505,"endTime":2881.073,"body":"It was possible for these other areas to gradually grow and overwhelm that small planned"},{"startTime":2881.073,"endTime":2881.445,"body":"economy."},{"startTime":2882.065,"endTime":2885.965,"body":"Unlike in the Soviet Union where the planned economy was, was the economy."},{"startTime":2886.945,"endTime":2890.045,"body":"So you could have this growing outta the plan idea."},{"startTime":2891.635,"endTime":2897.895,"body":"Seventhly, and I've already hinted at this, the cellular economy meant that there could be"},{"startTime":2897.895,"endTime":2899.565,"body":"regional competition, local experimentation."},{"startTime":2900.425,"endTime":2902.725,"body":"If something failed, you abandoned it."},{"startTime":2902.825,"endTime":2903.965,"body":"You blamed the local officials."},{"startTime":2904.225,"endTime":2908.693,"body":"If it was good, Beijing took it over and said, this shows the wisdom of"},{"startTime":2908.693,"endTime":2909.885,"body":"the, of the government."},{"startTime":2911.345,"endTime":2918.703,"body":"And finally, ly tight party control gave confidence by the leaders to consider whole range"},{"startTime":2918.703,"endTime":2919.685,"body":"of policies."},{"startTime":2920.745,"endTime":2924.605,"body":"The party drew upon ideas who, for wherever that could come."},{"startTime":2925.305,"endTime":2930.789,"body":"And most, the most famous one was the cruise on the Yangs Sea River aboard"},{"startTime":2930.789,"endTime":2934.445,"body":"a steamship as it cruised along the yangs Sea River."},{"startTime":2935.065,"endTime":2944.233,"body":"The Chinese party officials met economists from around the world, Chicago, Hungary, London, you name"},{"startTime":2944.233,"endTime":2944.845,"body":"it."},{"startTime":2945.555,"endTime":2946.485,"body":"They, they had it."},{"startTime":2946.955,"endTime":2948.565,"body":"They also worked with the World Bank."},{"startTime":2949.505,"endTime":2952.085,"body":"The World Bank loved working with China."},{"startTime":2952.955,"endTime":2955.405,"body":"They said, I quote one bank official."},{"startTime":2955.425,"endTime":2956.685,"body":"It was a marriage made in heaven."},{"startTime":2957.345,"endTime":2963.325,"body":"It party in the bank were both professional bureaucracies, but who was under control."},{"startTime":2963.505,"endTime":2967.245,"body":"Not the World Bank, but the, uh, powers that be in Beijing."},{"startTime":2969.065,"endTime":2975.205,"body":"So this provides the basis for things to be, to be pushed, uh, pushed forward."},{"startTime":2976.185,"endTime":2983.808,"body":"Now, what we've got now, I think it's something of a backlash back towards more"},{"startTime":2983.808,"endTime":2984.317,"body":"state control, a shift away from household, uh, town and village prises to more state"},{"startTime":2984.317,"endTime":2984.825,"body":"control, state identifying sectors to grow in 19 94, 4 pillar industries were identified in"},{"startTime":2984.825,"endTime":2999.565,"body":"2015."},{"startTime":2999.785,"endTime":3003.045,"body":"The so-called made in China to 2025."},{"startTime":3003.045,"endTime":3009.71,"body":"Policy aimed to specify those con part of the economy, which would grow to produce"},{"startTime":3009.71,"endTime":3010.154,"body":"goods, which would not be based upon cheap labor, but moving towards highly technology, sophisticated"},{"startTime":3010.154,"endTime":3010.599,"body":"production with greater independence from foreign suppliers, firms like, like Huawei in telecommunications, for example,"},{"startTime":3010.599,"endTime":3027.485,"body":"but also the Belt and Road initiative heavy lending overseas."},{"startTime":3028.865,"endTime":3032.605,"body":"The question now is how sustainable is the Chinese economy?"},{"startTime":3034.485,"endTime":3036.085,"body":"I think there were some worrying signs."},{"startTime":3036.595,"endTime":3041.765,"body":"I've suggested that this, that Russia is, is, is in a highly vulnerable situation."},{"startTime":3041.765,"endTime":3042.685,"body":"But what about China?"},{"startTime":3044.225,"endTime":3048.898,"body":"The high savings I talked about have gone into property and local authorities have spent"},{"startTime":3048.898,"endTime":3052.325,"body":"on pro on projects which do not make a, a return."},{"startTime":3053.385,"endTime":3058.509,"body":"The property sector was central to growth within the domestic economy that now has serious"},{"startTime":3058.509,"endTime":3061.925,"body":"problems with the failure of ever grande and other firms."},{"startTime":3063.125,"endTime":3067.765,"body":"Secondly, of course, there's international tensions that reliance of China on export markets."},{"startTime":3067.835,"endTime":3070.325,"body":"It's led to resentment by the United States."},{"startTime":3071.225,"endTime":3076.445,"body":"Uh, China has bought, uh, treasury debt, uh, treasury bills in the United States."},{"startTime":3076.795,"endTime":3083.29,"body":"There's an unstable international relationship between the two, the two countries, the US administration, both"},{"startTime":3083.29,"endTime":3083.723,"body":"Trump and Biden, argue that China is not obeying the terms of membership of the"},{"startTime":3083.723,"endTime":3091.085,"body":"World Trade Organization."},{"startTime":3091.235,"endTime":3097.329,"body":"Well, they're right in that China has become more assertive, and at the same time"},{"startTime":3097.329,"endTime":3102.205,"body":"as Russia has become aggresses, aggressively nationalistic, the two are possibly aligning."},{"startTime":3103.465,"endTime":3106.165,"body":"So historians are good at looking at the past."},{"startTime":3106.175,"endTime":3107.605,"body":"We're less good at looking at the future."},{"startTime":3109.065,"endTime":3112.085,"body":"The Cold War ended in 1989."},{"startTime":3112.265,"endTime":3116.952,"body":"It seemed to fukiama wrongly with the victory of democratic capitalism and to a rules"},{"startTime":3116.952,"endTime":3119.765,"body":"based international or the dominated by the United States."},{"startTime":3121.305,"endTime":3127.226,"body":"We now have a new standoff between democratic and authoritarian economic systems, but it's not"},{"startTime":3127.226,"endTime":3128.805,"body":"like the Cold War."},{"startTime":3129.745,"endTime":3134.285,"body":"In the Cold War, the Soviet Union was not deeply integrated into the global economy."},{"startTime":3134.865,"endTime":3137.125,"body":"The US and Soviet economies were distinct."},{"startTime":3137.785,"endTime":3143.072,"body":"Now, the Chinese and American economies are deeply intertwined and attempts to uncouple them, like"},{"startTime":3143.072,"endTime":3146.245,"body":"for making apple phones, for example, will be difficult."},{"startTime":3147.815,"endTime":3152.573,"body":"China is now the second largest world economy and a major investor in the Belt"},{"startTime":3152.573,"endTime":3153.525,"body":"and Road Initiative."},{"startTime":3154.195,"endTime":3160.8,"body":"It's making claims to create a new set of international institutions like here, the recent"},{"startTime":3160.8,"endTime":3165.645,"body":"Bricks conference there with Brazil, uh, South Africa, India, and Russia."},{"startTime":3167.125,"endTime":3170.565,"body":"Although of course there are major divides even between them."},{"startTime":3171.385,"endTime":3175.285,"body":"Can there be multilateralism with Chinese characteristics?"},{"startTime":3175.715,"endTime":3180.765,"body":"Well, there are internal tensions there, but similar there, internal tensions within the G seven."},{"startTime":3182.145,"endTime":3187.873,"body":"The Russian economy is weak, but it has a nuclear arsenal could form the lives"},{"startTime":3187.873,"endTime":3190.165,"body":"with China on, uh, security issues."},{"startTime":3191.075,"endTime":3196.245,"body":"Meanwhile, the United States has a serious problem of a failing political system."},{"startTime":3198.055,"endTime":3199.925,"body":"Historians are not very good prophets."},{"startTime":3200.625,"endTime":3205.541,"body":"Uh, Walter Rostow is a warning against allowing economic historians to have anything to do"},{"startTime":3205.541,"endTime":3206.525,"body":"with guiding policy."},{"startTime":3208.045,"endTime":3212.287,"body":"I hope what I've been able to do today is to tell you how we"},{"startTime":3212.287,"endTime":3215.965,"body":"got to where we are, but to me, the future looks deeply alarming."},{"startTime":3217.495,"endTime":3217.925,"body":"Thank you,"},{"startTime":3226.115,"endTime":3227.125,"body":"Professor Dalton."},{"startTime":3227.125,"endTime":3227.845,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":3227.915,"endTime":3229.685,"body":"That was a fascinating lecture."},{"startTime":3229.945,"endTime":3232.245,"body":"We do have time for a couple of questions."},{"startTime":3232.905,"endTime":3236.605,"body":"Um, if you don't mind, I think, uh, we'll start off, um, on here."},{"startTime":3236.665,"endTime":3240.747,"body":"And there's a few people, including myself, I have to admit, who want to pick"},{"startTime":3240.747,"endTime":3242.925,"body":"you up on this, in this ideology thing."},{"startTime":3242.925,"endTime":3249.013,"body":"And who might possibly want to explore a more sympathetic reading of Fama's thesis, maybe"},{"startTime":3249.013,"endTime":3249.419,"body":"slightly closer to something like Daniel Bell's idea that actually when we say end of"},{"startTime":3249.419,"endTime":3249.825,"body":"history, what we mean is that two great unified ideologies will never again collide in"},{"startTime":3249.825,"endTime":3264.845,"body":"the way that perhaps slightly apocryphally they did previously."},{"startTime":3264.845,"endTime":3267.085,"body":"And that actually we will be seeing something more like this."},{"startTime":3267.155,"endTime":3272.605,"body":"Lots of little variations or experiments on what is essentially however, capitalism."},{"startTime":3273.035,"endTime":3274.005,"body":"What would you say to that?"},{"startTime":3274.155,"endTime":3280.982,"body":"Okay, so you're saying capitalism has tried thrived, uh, and that, uh, here we have"},{"startTime":3280.982,"endTime":3286.445,"body":"capitalism working within, uh, China, um, and it's perhaps not so different."},{"startTime":3287.345,"endTime":3292.195,"body":"You might be suggesting from, uh, what we're having in, in, um, uh, the case"},{"startTime":3292.195,"endTime":3293.165,"body":"of United States."},{"startTime":3293.365,"endTime":3300.294,"body":"I think that's slightly, um, minimizing certain other issues, uh, which are to do with,"},{"startTime":3300.294,"endTime":3300.756,"body":"uh, civil rights humanitarianism, um, and e and of course, as we well know, even"},{"startTime":3300.756,"endTime":3301.218,"body":"if to economic systems of other similar, uh, like for example, Germany and the United"},{"startTime":3301.218,"endTime":3316.925,"body":"Kingdom before the First World War."},{"startTime":3317.505,"endTime":3324.581,"body":"It does not mean to say that ideological differences disappear with a possibility of, um,"},{"startTime":3324.581,"endTime":3325.525,"body":"global warfare."},{"startTime":3325.655,"endTime":3326.925,"body":"Sorry to be so depressing."},{"startTime":3327.145,"endTime":3330.525,"body":"Um, on, on Halloween is pretty, uh, pretty grim, grim thing."},{"startTime":3330.765,"endTime":3335.645,"body":"I think there, there are, uh, fundamental, um, ideological differences there."},{"startTime":3335.945,"endTime":3340.365,"body":"Um, of course, the, the, the Americans believe that capitalism must go with democracy."},{"startTime":3340.825,"endTime":3341.445,"body":"No, it doesn't."},{"startTime":3341.595,"endTime":3341.885,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3342.545,"endTime":3347.699,"body":"Um, you could say that the most successful, uh, capitalist regimes have been authoritarian, which"},{"startTime":3347.699,"endTime":3348.043,"body":"is a plug for my next lecture, uh, which is on authoritarian capitalism in the"},{"startTime":3348.043,"endTime":3353.885,"body":"Asian tiger countries."},{"startTime":3354.065,"endTime":3357.59,"body":"And that, of course, was the big mistake made by the IMF mm-Hmm, \u003caffirmative\u003e, I"},{"startTime":3357.59,"endTime":3360.645,"body":"was acting more, perhaps more likely than I would normally in today's lecture."},{"startTime":3361.105,"endTime":3368.173,"body":"Uh, they believed that, um, the, the, uh, the way forward was always American style"},{"startTime":3368.173,"endTime":3368.645,"body":"capitalism."},{"startTime":3369.585,"endTime":3375.672,"body":"Uh, they rejected what career and other places were doing, which is in terms of"},{"startTime":3375.672,"endTime":3376.077,"body":"state-led capitalism, uh, which is not necessarily guided by short-term markets, but by long-term, um,"},{"startTime":3376.077,"endTime":3382.165,"body":"vision."},{"startTime":3383.185,"endTime":3386.605,"body":"Now, what we, I'm not an advocate for authoritarianism, am I hasten to add?"},{"startTime":3386.865,"endTime":3388.765,"body":"But I think what we need is, is long-term vision."},{"startTime":3388.765,"endTime":3391.525,"body":"What we need is a fundamental reform of American capitalism."},{"startTime":3392.835,"endTime":3393.925,"body":"Here, here, here, here, \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3393.925,"endTime":3398.925,"body":"But"},{"startTime":3394.085,"endTime":3395.245,"body":"I have the time to go into that."},{"startTime":3395.305,"endTime":3395.525,"body":"Now,"},{"startTime":3396.185,"endTime":3398.085,"body":"Do we have the microphone in?"},{"startTime":3398.625,"endTime":3399.045,"body":"Lovely."},{"startTime":3399.265,"endTime":3399.925,"body":"Um, okay."},{"startTime":3400.065,"endTime":3402.845,"body":"We have a question at the front here, and then the,"},{"startTime":3405.985,"endTime":3412.365,"body":"If you are saying there's no correlation between democracy and capitalism, and I agree, do"},{"startTime":3412.365,"endTime":3417.045,"body":"you think there's any alternative to neo neoliberalism capitalism kinda thing?"},{"startTime":3417.505,"endTime":3420.285,"body":"And is nationalism going to the way forward?"},{"startTime":3420.825,"endTime":3422.165,"body":"Do I totally agree this?"},{"startTime":3422.195,"endTime":3422.485,"body":"Okay."},{"startTime":3422.485,"endTime":3422.805,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":3422.825,"endTime":3428.393,"body":"But this is now a plug for my new book \u003claugh\u003e, uh, uh, which, which"},{"startTime":3428.393,"endTime":3428.765,"body":"came out in this country in May in the States in, uh, November, uh, next"},{"startTime":3428.765,"endTime":3429.136,"body":"month, um, where the final chapter is about how to, uh, reform capitalism, uh, how"},{"startTime":3429.136,"endTime":3440.645,"body":"to reform neoliberalism."},{"startTime":3441.305,"endTime":3445.362,"body":"And what I would argue, in fact, it's rather similar to what I argued in"},{"startTime":3445.362,"endTime":3446.445,"body":"an earlier Gresham lecture."},{"startTime":3446.785,"endTime":3450.968,"body":"Uh, if you go online, uh, is there the, I did a series called Three"},{"startTime":3450.968,"endTime":3451.805,"body":"Crisis of Capitalism."},{"startTime":3452.305,"endTime":3457.027,"body":"And the, what I argued in the final one, I think, is that the 2008"},{"startTime":3457.027,"endTime":3460.805,"body":"financial crisis might have been the end of neoliberalism, and it wasn't."},{"startTime":3461.745,"endTime":3467.574,"body":"Uh, and it perhaps it ought to have been, uh, what I'm, what I would"},{"startTime":3467.574,"endTime":3467.962,"body":"argue for is, uh, a need to, uh, rectify close inequality, uh, that the post-war"},{"startTime":3467.962,"endTime":3468.351,"body":"order of, uh, democratic capitalists, if you like, after the, after the war, reckoned upon"},{"startTime":3468.351,"endTime":3484.285,"body":"a social compact between capital labor and the state, which has been broken."},{"startTime":3484.665,"endTime":3489.12,"body":"Uh, and it's what we have now is a widening divergence between return to, to"},{"startTime":3489.12,"endTime":3490.605,"body":"capital and return to labor."},{"startTime":3491.225,"endTime":3497.146,"body":"And many capitalists, like George Sos or uh, for example, would argue that that's the"},{"startTime":3497.146,"endTime":3498.725,"body":"major threat to capitalism."},{"startTime":3499.465,"endTime":3502.085,"body":"And it leads to populism and it needs to nationalism."},{"startTime":3502.825,"endTime":3508.385,"body":"And that populism and nationalism are not the solution because the big crisis facing us"},{"startTime":3508.385,"endTime":3513.205,"body":"now is climate change, which is the most fundamental global collective action problem."},{"startTime":3514.265,"endTime":3516.845,"body":"And if you go for nationalism, that doesn't resolve it."},{"startTime":3517.145,"endTime":3523.735,"body":"On the other hand, there are those people who are ly call return for to"},{"startTime":3523.735,"endTime":3524.174,"body":"the post-war multilateral order like Jake Sullivan did in April, um, Joe Biden status security"},{"startTime":3524.174,"endTime":3530.765,"body":"advisor."},{"startTime":3531.705,"endTime":3535.688,"body":"Um, and that's not gonna going to happen because of the tensions I was, I"},{"startTime":3535.688,"endTime":3536.485,"body":"was talking about."},{"startTime":3536.955,"endTime":3542.819,"body":"What we need is a proper balance between nationalism, which means looking after the welfare"},{"startTime":3542.819,"endTime":3543.21,"body":"of people within individual societies and internationalism realizing that in fact, if you don't have"},{"startTime":3543.21,"endTime":3543.601,"body":"that, you have like the 1930s beggar, my neighbor policies, wherever you'd pursuing nationalism means"},{"startTime":3543.601,"endTime":3557.285,"body":"that everybody in the whole world suffers."},{"startTime":3558.125,"endTime":3559.165,"body":"I dunno if that's an answer to your question."},{"startTime":3559.165,"endTime":3559.565,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3559.785,"endTime":3563.085,"body":"Please throw me in thanking Professor Dante and yourself."}]}