{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":5.175,"endTime":11.293,"body":"Today I'm going to talk, um, about a series of quite serious emergencies that can"},{"startTime":11.293,"endTime":12.925,"body":"have major health impacts."},{"startTime":13.315,"endTime":18.223,"body":"This is a sec, the second in a, uh, series of lectures on major emergencies"},{"startTime":18.223,"endTime":19.205,"body":"with health implications."},{"startTime":19.825,"endTime":23.125,"body":"Uh, the the last one was on nuclear radiological and chemical issues."},{"startTime":23.645,"endTime":29.578,"body":"I will subsequently be doing one on major, uh, weather events, but today I'm gonna"},{"startTime":29.578,"endTime":34.325,"body":"be talking about literally when the earth moves, earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis."},{"startTime":34.865,"endTime":40.565,"body":"And these can have devastating impacts on communities, uh, really essentially outta the blue."},{"startTime":42.135,"endTime":46.499,"body":"The Gresham College lecture that you're listening to right now is giving you knowledge and"},{"startTime":46.499,"endTime":46.79,"body":"insight from one of the world's leading academic experts, making it takes a lot of"},{"startTime":46.79,"endTime":51.155,"body":"time."},{"startTime":51.615,"endTime":54.596,"body":"But because we want to encourage a love of learning, we think it's well worth"},{"startTime":54.596,"endTime":54.795,"body":"it."},{"startTime":55.895,"endTime":59.195,"body":"We never make you pay for lectures, although donations are needed."},{"startTime":59.695,"endTime":61.035,"body":"All we ask in return is this."},{"startTime":61.585,"endTime":63.875,"body":"Send a link to this lecture to someone you think would benefit."},{"startTime":64.254,"endTime":68.138,"body":"And if you haven't already, click the follow or subscribe button from wherever you are"},{"startTime":68.138,"endTime":68.915,"body":"listening right now."},{"startTime":69.975,"endTime":71.395,"body":"Now, let's get back to the lecture."},{"startTime":74.355,"endTime":78.765,"body":"Earthquakes, uh, and tsunamis and volcanoes can be highly destructive."},{"startTime":79.005,"endTime":84.95,"body":"Destructive, uh, they tend to have immediate, uh, short term effects, uh, which will happen"},{"startTime":84.95,"endTime":87.725,"body":"in the vicinity, uh, of the event."},{"startTime":88.345,"endTime":94.57,"body":"Uh, they can ha then have, uh, much, um, uh, longer term effects, uh, which"},{"startTime":94.57,"endTime":96.645,"body":"cause impacts even down generations."},{"startTime":97.585,"endTime":103.045,"body":"And if we want to respond effectively to these, uh, these events, uh, we have"},{"startTime":103.045,"endTime":106.685,"body":"to, um, understand some of the basic science behind them."},{"startTime":107.105,"endTime":110.592,"body":"Now, those of you who've most recent, most recently been at school will probably have"},{"startTime":110.592,"endTime":112.685,"body":"a better understanding of this than many other people."},{"startTime":113.305,"endTime":117.538,"body":"Uh, but I'm gonna go through some of the basics of this because I think"},{"startTime":117.538,"endTime":120.925,"body":"it explains why it is that particular events, uh, tend to occur."},{"startTime":123.515,"endTime":129.543,"body":"Firstly, uh, when thinking about, uh, earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis, particularly earthquakes and volcanoes, uh,"},{"startTime":129.543,"endTime":133.965,"body":"where they're likely to occur is largely though not entirely predictable."},{"startTime":134.315,"endTime":140.399,"body":"They'll tend to occur, uh, along where, along lines where tectonic plates, uh, meet one"},{"startTime":140.399,"endTime":140.805,"body":"another."},{"startTime":140.805,"endTime":145.605,"body":"These may be major ones as in this, uh, uh, map, or they, uh, may"},{"startTime":145.605,"endTime":149.125,"body":"be more minor ones, but they occur in particular geographical areas."},{"startTime":151.265,"endTime":157.017,"body":"And I'm gonna start off with earthquakes because earthquakes, uh, are the most frequent, uh,"},{"startTime":157.017,"endTime":160.085,"body":"and cause overall the largest number of deaths."},{"startTime":160.465,"endTime":164.435,"body":"But, um, there can be some very major examples of, of the other two volcanoes"},{"startTime":164.435,"endTime":164.965,"body":"and tsunamis."},{"startTime":165.625,"endTime":169.133,"body":"Uh, a very large number of the major earthquakes that occur in the world, in"},{"startTime":169.133,"endTime":171.005,"body":"fact, occur a long way away from land."},{"startTime":171.115,"endTime":175.165,"body":"They occur out in the sea and have no practical health implications."},{"startTime":175.945,"endTime":180.053,"body":"So there are a lot of earthquakes occurring that are really quite major, and they're"},{"startTime":180.053,"endTime":182.245,"body":"the dots you can see on this map."},{"startTime":184.625,"endTime":190.182,"body":"The ba, the basic principle of an earthquake is, uh, relatively simple, although there's a"},{"startTime":190.182,"endTime":192.405,"body":"lot of complexity lying underneath that."},{"startTime":193.505,"endTime":200.793,"body":"Two plates are moving in different directions, usually quite gradually, and the land between them"},{"startTime":200.793,"endTime":201.765,"body":"is locked."},{"startTime":201.955,"endTime":204.685,"body":"It's locked in place, essentially by friction."},{"startTime":206.065,"endTime":209.645,"body":"And then at a certain point, the stresses grow and they grow and they grow."},{"startTime":209.985,"endTime":215.535,"body":"And at a certain point, they suddenly move that sudden movement where they kind of"},{"startTime":215.535,"endTime":216.645,"body":"release that energy."},{"startTime":217.075,"endTime":218.965,"body":"That is what causes the initial earthquake."},{"startTime":219.025,"endTime":221.325,"body":"So that's the, uh, the initial event."},{"startTime":222.155,"endTime":225.685,"body":"They can occur up and down side to side, variety of ways they can occur."},{"startTime":225.685,"endTime":231.373,"body":"But they all have this basic principle of a sudden release of, um, stress that"},{"startTime":231.373,"endTime":235.165,"body":"has been building up over years, decades, or even centuries."},{"startTime":235.345,"endTime":237.765,"body":"And it's suddenly released, uh, in one go."},{"startTime":242.195,"endTime":247.876,"body":"The geology of earthquakes is important, and it's not just a sim usually a single"},{"startTime":247.876,"endTime":248.255,"body":"line."},{"startTime":248.765,"endTime":252.672,"body":"They can occur at different depths, and you can often have lots of different fault"},{"startTime":252.672,"endTime":253.975,"body":"lines running in different directions."},{"startTime":254.515,"endTime":259.051,"body":"And these have implications as to where the earthquake is gonna go to and therefore"},{"startTime":259.051,"endTime":261.774,"body":"what the effects on health are likely to be."},{"startTime":263.005,"endTime":267.39,"body":"So on the right here, I've put the, uh, geological, uh, sort of cross section"},{"startTime":267.39,"endTime":269.145,"body":"of an area of the Himalayas."},{"startTime":269.145,"endTime":274.121,"body":"I'm gonna talk about this later, uh, in the pool where a major earthquake relatively"},{"startTime":274.121,"endTime":274.785,"body":"recently occurred."},{"startTime":275.245,"endTime":278.505,"body":"And it's, you have to think of it in a sense in three dimensions."},{"startTime":283.595,"endTime":288.975,"body":"Earthquakes can occur in many places in the world, and most of them are so"},{"startTime":288.975,"endTime":291.845,"body":"small that the average person can't feel them."},{"startTime":292.705,"endTime":296.727,"body":"Or, uh, as, uh, described here, this is, um, from, uh, the 30th of January"},{"startTime":296.727,"endTime":298.605,"body":"this year in the island of Mull."},{"startTime":298.605,"endTime":302.165,"body":"Someone felt that, uh, it felt like someone had driven a car into the house."},{"startTime":302.165,"endTime":305.519,"body":"And if you've been in a place with an earthquake, and some of you probably"},{"startTime":305.519,"endTime":307.085,"body":"would've been, it's an extraordinary jolting feeling."},{"startTime":307.505,"endTime":309.645,"body":"Uh, uh, very disconcerting actually."},{"startTime":310.065,"endTime":311.205,"body":"Uh, when it occurs"},{"startTime":312.545,"endTime":317.932,"body":"On the left here, uh, I've put the earthquakes that that would've occurred in the"},{"startTime":317.932,"endTime":318.292,"body":"60 days up to last weekend when I finalized this particular slide, just demonstrating that"},{"startTime":318.292,"endTime":318.651,"body":"in fact, even in the uk, which is not an earthquake pro zone, uh, by"},{"startTime":318.651,"endTime":319.01,"body":"any global standards, we are having constant small earthquakes, which essentially no one notices and"},{"startTime":319.01,"endTime":339.125,"body":"do, uh, limited or no damage, uh, to either, uh, people or, uh, property."},{"startTime":341.585,"endTime":344.845,"body":"So the earthquakes we worry about are the much larger ones."},{"startTime":346.105,"endTime":351.937,"body":"And, uh, here what I've put up, uh, on this slide is just some of"},{"startTime":351.937,"endTime":352.326,"body":"the, uh, earthquakes that have occurred, uh, since, uh, 1970, so over roughly, just over"},{"startTime":352.326,"endTime":359.325,"body":"the last 50 years."},{"startTime":359.945,"endTime":364.53,"body":"And I've done that, and I'm not gonna read them out just to show what"},{"startTime":364.53,"endTime":366.365,"body":"an absolute disaster earthquakes can be."},{"startTime":367.145,"endTime":372.782,"body":"So since the turn of the last Century 1900, it's estimated that somewhere between 2,000,002"},{"startTime":372.782,"endTime":376.165,"body":"and a half million people have died of earthquakes."},{"startTime":377.025,"endTime":381.365,"body":"And these occur, significant earthquakes are occurring every few years."},{"startTime":381.625,"endTime":385.245,"body":"So just read those numbers to get some sense of scale."},{"startTime":394.255,"endTime":402.876,"body":"It is possible with current seismological science to, um, work out where severe or moderate"},{"startTime":402.876,"endTime":407.475,"body":"earthquakes are at least potentially likely to occur."},{"startTime":408.375,"endTime":409.515,"body":"And this is a map of Europe."},{"startTime":409.575,"endTime":411.475,"body":"We could do the same mapping it out in different areas."},{"startTime":411.695,"endTime":416.509,"body":"The darker the red color or purple color, the more likely a severe shaking of"},{"startTime":416.509,"endTime":418.435,"body":"the ground due to an earthquake."},{"startTime":418.895,"endTime":419.675,"body":"Uh, could be."},{"startTime":420.375,"endTime":425.112,"body":"And as you can see, quite large areas, uh, for example, around Italy, Greece, around"},{"startTime":425.112,"endTime":427.955,"body":"the borderline of Spain, uh, are potentially earthquake prone."},{"startTime":428.175,"endTime":432.675,"body":"And we do from time to time, have very substantial earthquakes, uh, in those areas."},{"startTime":436.465,"endTime":442.82,"body":"It's, is, however, almost impossible to say with any kind of forward accuracy when these"},{"startTime":442.82,"endTime":444.515,"body":"earthquakes are gonna occur."},{"startTime":445.895,"endTime":450.14,"body":"And usually if people get any warning at all, it'll be warning that is a"},{"startTime":450.14,"endTime":451.555,"body":"very short period in advance."},{"startTime":451.655,"endTime":455.471,"body":"And I think one of the mistakes people make is thinking you can predict when"},{"startTime":455.471,"endTime":456.235,"body":"they would occur."},{"startTime":456.235,"endTime":459.355,"body":"You can predict where, but you cannot predict when they will occur."},{"startTime":460.135,"endTime":465.739,"body":"And I'm just, uh, making the comment because, uh, in 2009, there was a major"},{"startTime":465.739,"endTime":469.475,"body":"earthquake in Italy, caused a lot of dis uh, destruction."},{"startTime":470.055,"endTime":474.849,"body":"Um, uh, and in that, um, some of the scientists had not given some possibly"},{"startTime":474.849,"endTime":475.169,"body":"slightly incautious advice, but people said they should have warned them that the earthquake was"},{"startTime":475.169,"endTime":475.488,"body":"coming and they reassured them, and they were sued for night manslaughter, and they were"},{"startTime":475.488,"endTime":487.315,"body":"jailed because they'd not been able to predict this."},{"startTime":487.385,"endTime":490.995,"body":"Most scientists would say this was asking for an impossible question."},{"startTime":491.295,"endTime":496.081,"body":"You simply cannot predict, uh, in advance when an earthquake is going to occur with"},{"startTime":496.081,"endTime":498.635,"body":"any degree, uh, of cons con uh, confidence."},{"startTime":498.635,"endTime":502.298,"body":"And you can see down below there, uh, the major earthquakes that have occurred in"},{"startTime":502.298,"endTime":503.275,"body":"exactly the same place."},{"startTime":503.375,"endTime":507.515,"body":"And they are usually many years apart, but not in a predictable cycle."},{"startTime":513.895,"endTime":518.818,"body":"Now, from a health point of view, there are immediate medium term and long-term effects"},{"startTime":518.818,"endTime":519.475,"body":"on health."},{"startTime":520.015,"endTime":524.672,"body":"And I'm gonna intersperse the sense of the earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis with the health"},{"startTime":524.672,"endTime":525.915,"body":"impacts of those 'cause."},{"startTime":525.915,"endTime":529.865,"body":"In a sense, that's the bit which, uh, really are I as a doctor, uh,"},{"startTime":529.865,"endTime":532.235,"body":"and public health person I'm wanting to respond to."},{"startTime":533.615,"endTime":538.547,"body":"Um, the biggest immediate risk, uh, in terms of numbers of people is usually from"},{"startTime":538.547,"endTime":539.205,"body":"buildings collapsing."},{"startTime":539.505,"endTime":542.85,"body":"You essentially have a large number of people in a concentrated area with lots of"},{"startTime":542.85,"endTime":543.965,"body":"masonry on top of them."},{"startTime":544.425,"endTime":545.725,"body":"And, uh, it falls down."},{"startTime":546.665,"endTime":549.085,"body":"And the implications of that, uh, in a sense, are obvious."},{"startTime":549.345,"endTime":552.885,"body":"People, uh, get, uh, damaged, um, yeah, have trauma."},{"startTime":553.585,"endTime":557.645,"body":"Uh, they have, uh, and they get buried under the, uh, rubble."},{"startTime":559.075,"endTime":561.525,"body":"There's a much lower risk for people who are out in the open."},{"startTime":561.705,"endTime":565.92,"body":"So if you're in the open with an earthquake, although it's scary, actually, the, the"},{"startTime":565.92,"endTime":567.325,"body":"physical risks are much lower."},{"startTime":567.325,"endTime":568.965,"body":"They're not zero, but they're a long way down."},{"startTime":569.305,"endTime":572.085,"body":"But fill things that are natural can still fall down."},{"startTime":572.225,"endTime":575.045,"body":"Cliffs, uh, can release as I show rubble."},{"startTime":575.045,"endTime":576.045,"body":"Trees can fall over."},{"startTime":576.345,"endTime":578.925,"body":"Uh, you can have damage, uh, from people falling over."},{"startTime":579.305,"endTime":581.045,"body":"Uh, in particular, uh, areas,"},{"startTime":583.135,"endTime":586.485,"body":"Those in a sense are obvious, less obvious."},{"startTime":586.585,"endTime":588.285,"body":"But a repeated risk is fire."},{"startTime":589.745,"endTime":596.413,"body":"Any city that has got gas mains and sources of sparks can have those ruptured"},{"startTime":596.413,"endTime":599.525,"body":"in multiple places leading to catastrophic fires."},{"startTime":599.525,"endTime":604.547,"body":"And if you look back, for example, to the earthquake of San Francisco, uh, in"},{"startTime":604.547,"endTime":604.882,"body":"1900, uh, very major earthquake, uh, and further ones will occur in San Francisco, uh,"},{"startTime":604.882,"endTime":605.216,"body":"'cause of where it, it is, uh, actually the majority of the damage was caused"},{"startTime":605.216,"endTime":617.605,"body":"by fire, uh, rather than the earthquake directly itself."},{"startTime":618.545,"endTime":622.845,"body":"So fire is a secondary, uh, risk with the risk, obviously, to humans of burns."},{"startTime":626.185,"endTime":632.24,"body":"Now, if you are in an earthquake area, uh, it's worth just being aware of"},{"startTime":632.24,"endTime":637.085,"body":"this simple memory thing that you should drop, cover and hold on."},{"startTime":637.395,"endTime":639.405,"body":"This advice is given in anywhere that speaks English."},{"startTime":639.405,"endTime":642.205,"body":"This is the standard advice for earthquakes drop to the ground."},{"startTime":642.345,"endTime":643.845,"body":"That's because you are gonna be swaying around."},{"startTime":643.845,"endTime":644.725,"body":"You may fall over."},{"startTime":645.475,"endTime":647.805,"body":"Just get yourself down to a place where you're safe."},{"startTime":648.215,"endTime":653.005,"body":"Cover means under something which is ideally moderately robust."},{"startTime":653.105,"endTime":658.058,"body":"But as you can see with these children being trained, a chair, uh, if that's"},{"startTime":658.058,"endTime":658.388,"body":"what you've got, will do desks, tables, something reasonably sturdy so that if masonry falls,"},{"startTime":658.388,"endTime":667.965,"body":"that there the, uh, fall will be, um, to some degree broken or stopped completely."},{"startTime":668.665,"endTime":672.53,"body":"If you can get into a room with no windows that is safer than one"},{"startTime":672.53,"endTime":672.788,"body":"with windows, 'cause it's stabler, uh, in terms of, uh, its structure, uh, but you're"},{"startTime":672.788,"endTime":677.685,"body":"actually safe if you're outside."},{"startTime":677.685,"endTime":680.418,"body":"So if you're just going into a house, get back out again and stay out"},{"startTime":680.418,"endTime":680.965,"body":"in the open."},{"startTime":683.275,"endTime":688.253,"body":"It's very important to understand with earthquakes that although there'll be an initial shock, they"},{"startTime":688.253,"endTime":690.245,"body":"will almost certainly then be aftershocks."},{"startTime":690.245,"endTime":694.608,"body":"So the first one is not the, uh, last one, and as I'll come onto"},{"startTime":694.608,"endTime":696.645,"body":"may not even be the worst one."},{"startTime":701.355,"endTime":701.575,"body":"Now,"},{"startTime":701.575,"endTime":706.495,"body":"How much damage we'd like to get from an earthquake depends on a number of"},{"startTime":706.495,"endTime":708.135,"body":"factors that are broadly predictable."},{"startTime":709.115,"endTime":712.855,"body":"The first of these is the strength of the earthquake itself."},{"startTime":713.985,"endTime":718.319,"body":"Uh, and this is really determined by a number of things, but in particular, how"},{"startTime":718.319,"endTime":722.365,"body":"much energy essentially has built up and then dis is dissipated through the earthquake."},{"startTime":722.505,"endTime":725.405,"body":"So you've gotta, some of them are much stronger than others."},{"startTime":726.025,"endTime":730.237,"body":"Uh, and, um, the way of measuring this, the most, well-known scale, which is always"},{"startTime":730.237,"endTime":732.765,"body":"referred to in the films, is the richer scale."},{"startTime":733.145,"endTime":736.765,"body":"Uh, but actually there's some slightly more updated versions of, of the scale."},{"startTime":737.145,"endTime":738.365,"body":"In a sense, these don't matter."},{"startTime":738.475,"endTime":741.085,"body":"What matters is to understand these are logarithmic."},{"startTime":742.155,"endTime":747.202,"body":"What that means is that six is a lot worse than five, and seven is"},{"startTime":747.202,"endTime":748.885,"body":"a lot worse than six."},{"startTime":749.545,"endTime":751.525,"body":"Uh, and so on up, up the scale."},{"startTime":752.865,"endTime":757.697,"body":"So, um, if you get an earthquake that has below is below five, the probability"},{"startTime":757.697,"endTime":761.885,"body":"of severe damage doesn't mean that there's zero, but is really quite low."},{"startTime":762.705,"endTime":766.873,"body":"If on the other hand, you have an earthquake that's got a magnitude of seven"},{"startTime":766.873,"endTime":770.765,"body":"or greater, widespread damage is highly likely, and they can go up from there."},{"startTime":772.865,"endTime":777.571,"body":"The next thing that can cause problems is aftershocks, and I'll go through the some"},{"startTime":777.571,"endTime":781.965,"body":"then in some di um, some, uh, care, because they have a big implications."},{"startTime":781.995,"endTime":786.903,"body":"What you can do, uh, in terms of response to it, the distance from the"},{"startTime":786.903,"endTime":787.885,"body":"epicenter is important."},{"startTime":787.945,"endTime":792.325,"body":"So the further you are away from the epicenter, generally the lower the impact."},{"startTime":792.385,"endTime":794.525,"body":"But again, that's very, uh, variable."},{"startTime":796.105,"endTime":801.31,"body":"And then there are some other geophysical things, which include how deep it is, it's"},{"startTime":801.31,"endTime":801.657,"body":"amplitude, what kind of speed that the, uh, quivering is happening, um, uh, uh, whether"},{"startTime":801.657,"endTime":802.005,"body":"the soil liquefies, if you have been on a beach and tried to shake soil,"},{"startTime":802.005,"endTime":813.805,"body":"sand, for example, sometimes it liquefies."},{"startTime":813.825,"endTime":818.716,"body":"The same thing can happen with an earthquake, meaning that that can destabilize buildings, even"},{"startTime":818.716,"endTime":821.325,"body":"ones that have got quite solid, uh, foundations."},{"startTime":821.895,"endTime":825.925,"body":"These are all factors that are factors of the earthquake itself."},{"startTime":827.105,"endTime":831.765,"body":"But then there are two human factors, which are at least arguably more important."},{"startTime":832.585,"endTime":834.605,"body":"The first one is building design."},{"startTime":835.555,"endTime":839.942,"body":"Some buildings are much more likely to stand up in an earthquake than others, particularly"},{"startTime":839.942,"endTime":841.405,"body":"if they've been designed to."},{"startTime":841.505,"endTime":844.565,"body":"But, uh, even older buildings, there'll be a lot of variety."},{"startTime":845.265,"endTime":847.885,"body":"And then unsurprisingly, population density."},{"startTime":848.845,"endTime":853.987,"body":"A very major earthquake in a place with a few cows, is much lower risk"},{"startTime":853.987,"endTime":854.33,"body":"to health than a slightly smaller earthquake that happens in the middle of a city,"},{"startTime":854.33,"endTime":863.245,"body":"particularly one which has got relatively limited building, uh, building, uh, control."},{"startTime":867.225,"endTime":871.369,"body":"Now I'm gonna illustrate some of these things, um, with an earthquake, uh, partly because"},{"startTime":871.369,"endTime":874.685,"body":"I, I was, uh, very peripherally involved in the response to it."},{"startTime":874.685,"endTime":876.565,"body":"So I knew quite a bit about the details."},{"startTime":876.565,"endTime":881.552,"body":"But I think it also demonstrates many of the key factors to understand about an"},{"startTime":881.552,"endTime":881.885,"body":"earthquake."},{"startTime":882.705,"endTime":887.365,"body":"And that is the tragic, uh, 2015, uh, earthquake, uh, in Nepal."},{"startTime":887.385,"endTime":890.485,"body":"And many of you will remember that from, uh, news reports of it."},{"startTime":891.465,"endTime":897.038,"body":"It was a, um, uh, it was a 7.8, uh, um, uh, uh, earthquake, so"},{"startTime":897.038,"endTime":898.525,"body":"quite a large one."},{"startTime":899.025,"endTime":904.285,"body":"And in terms of the scale of damage, it caused, uh, around 9,000 deaths."},{"startTime":905.065,"endTime":906.885,"body":"So lots of people dying very suddenly."},{"startTime":907.545,"endTime":911.245,"body":"It also injured about 22,000 people significantly."},{"startTime":911.425,"endTime":913.765,"body":"I'm not talking here, tiny grazes and things."},{"startTime":914.105,"endTime":918.005,"body":"And it rendered house houseless and homeless over 3 million."},{"startTime":918.065,"endTime":921.991,"body":"So this is the kind of size of, in fact, you can have, uh, on,"},{"startTime":921.991,"endTime":924.085,"body":"on a country, uh, when an earthquake occurs."},{"startTime":926.065,"endTime":930.538,"body":"Now, in terms of our, our understanding of the, uh, tectonic area, the seismology of"},{"startTime":930.538,"endTime":932.925,"body":"this area, a lot was known about this."},{"startTime":933.065,"endTime":938.671,"body":"The seismology of the humanitarian area has been very heavily studied by many excellent scientific"},{"startTime":938.671,"endTime":939.045,"body":"groups."},{"startTime":939.785,"endTime":944.856,"body":"So the understanding of all the, uh, the kind of, uh, stress frac features where"},{"startTime":944.856,"endTime":945.195,"body":"the various, um, uh, fault lines are, uh, is really very strong compared to some"},{"startTime":945.195,"endTime":950.605,"body":"other areas."},{"startTime":951.825,"endTime":957.367,"body":"And cat mandu, uh, in which is the capital of Nepal we'd known, was likely"},{"startTime":957.367,"endTime":958.845,"body":"to have an earthquake."},{"startTime":958.845,"endTime":962.478,"body":"And there are many other great cities that are likely to have a major earthquake"},{"startTime":962.478,"endTime":963.205,"body":"for some time."},{"startTime":963.305,"endTime":967.673,"body":"So there was no surprise that an earthquake was going to occur in this, uh,"},{"startTime":967.673,"endTime":967.965,"body":"area."},{"startTime":968.585,"endTime":972.325,"body":"Tehran, for example, might be another city where that is likely to occur."},{"startTime":974.315,"endTime":979.918,"body":"What then happened is you have the beginning of the earthquake, uh, on, um, the"},{"startTime":979.918,"endTime":980.292,"body":"left of this, uh, this, um, map and spread, and it kind of wave all"},{"startTime":980.292,"endTime":988.885,"body":"the way down to the right of this map."},{"startTime":988.885,"endTime":994.035,"body":"And what essentially was happening was this is an unzipping down the line very, very"},{"startTime":994.035,"endTime":997.125,"body":"fast of the two plates that are locked together."},{"startTime":997.305,"endTime":998.045,"body":"So that's how it works."},{"startTime":998.045,"endTime":1000.965,"body":"It's an unzipping in one direction or another."},{"startTime":1000.965,"endTime":1005.701,"body":"And it moved in this case from left to right, causing shaking all the way"},{"startTime":1005.701,"endTime":1006.965,"body":"down as it went."},{"startTime":1007.465,"endTime":1011.765,"body":"The epicenter was quite a likely populated area, but halfway through that line was cat"},{"startTime":1011.765,"endTime":1012.051,"body":"mandu, a very heavily populated area, and a lot of the initial damage was caused"},{"startTime":1012.051,"endTime":1016.925,"body":"in the city."},{"startTime":1018.905,"endTime":1024.62,"body":"Now, at the end of that, lots of seismologists studied, it immediately got quick hit"},{"startTime":1024.62,"endTime":1025.001,"body":"out immediately, and their immediate estimate was roughly half the energy that was stored in"},{"startTime":1025.001,"endTime":1033.765,"body":"that stress line had been dissipated, had gone away."},{"startTime":1034.515,"endTime":1037.365,"body":"What that meant was one of three possibilities could occur."},{"startTime":1037.875,"endTime":1043.26,"body":"Firstly, um, it could just gently ease itself down to release all, all the rest"},{"startTime":1043.26,"endTime":1043.619,"body":"of the stress over the next few days, causing essentially no major new earthquakes, minor"},{"startTime":1043.619,"endTime":1049.005,"body":"ones."},{"startTime":1049.765,"endTime":1053.445,"body":"Secondly, you could have a second earthquake of the same size as the first one."},{"startTime":1054.425,"endTime":1058.986,"body":"And the third is essentially between those two, you have a series of smaller earthquakes"},{"startTime":1058.986,"endTime":1059.29,"body":"that dissipate the energy of a period now that that stress line has, uh, essentially"},{"startTime":1059.29,"endTime":1064.765,"body":"become less locked together."},{"startTime":1065.265,"endTime":1069.902,"body":"So, uh, we knew that, uh, almost immediately, but, um, how deep it was, uh,"},{"startTime":1069.902,"endTime":1070.211,"body":"its epicenter, how many shocks had very significant impacts on what was gonna happen next"},{"startTime":1070.211,"endTime":1076.085,"body":"in terms of human health."},{"startTime":1079.485,"endTime":1083.305,"body":"So the earthquake, as I say, propagated left to right over time."},{"startTime":1083.845,"endTime":1088.218,"body":"And at the end of it, uh, in the areas in blue, the stress had"},{"startTime":1088.218,"endTime":1089.385,"body":"gone down a lot."},{"startTime":1090.125,"endTime":1094.265,"body":"And in the areas of red, it had actually increased to some degree."},{"startTime":1094.605,"endTime":1099.265,"body":"So this is the changes that seismologists who, the scientists who studied these kind of"},{"startTime":1099.265,"endTime":1099.575,"body":"things, were able to tell us about at a very, uh, very early on, meaning"},{"startTime":1099.575,"endTime":1108.585,"body":"that we could predict what was the upper end of future events immediately after this."},{"startTime":1110.725,"endTime":1115.721,"body":"Now, after this first earthquake, the first big quake, which in this case, uh, was"},{"startTime":1115.721,"endTime":1119.385,"body":"the biggest, but it's not absolutely inevitable, there were multiple aftershocks."},{"startTime":1119.725,"endTime":1125.05,"body":"And I think it's really important to understand the importance of aftershocks because they have"},{"startTime":1125.05,"endTime":1126.825,"body":"both physical and psychological impacts."},{"startTime":1127.805,"endTime":1133.019,"body":"The physical impact of these is an area that's been badly shaken and often damaged"},{"startTime":1133.019,"endTime":1133.367,"body":"is hit again, potentially repeatedly by more shocks, knocking down buildings that have become weakened"},{"startTime":1133.367,"endTime":1139.625,"body":"in the first shock."},{"startTime":1139.845,"endTime":1142.745,"body":"So all the damage isn't necessarily on the first day."},{"startTime":1142.745,"endTime":1145.705,"body":"In fact, you may have a lot, uh, uh, which is in other areas."},{"startTime":1146.045,"endTime":1149.145,"body":"And they tend, they can occur towards the leading edge."},{"startTime":1149.145,"endTime":1153.27,"body":"They tend to occur at the far end of the unzipping that I talked about"},{"startTime":1153.27,"endTime":1153.545,"body":"previously."},{"startTime":1153.565,"endTime":1157.107,"body":"So in this case, most of the aftershocks were at the far end on the"},{"startTime":1157.107,"endTime":1159.705,"body":"right of this map that was, uh, the direction of travel."},{"startTime":1159.765,"endTime":1162.985,"body":"Had the earthquake gone the opposite way, it would've been in the opposite direction."},{"startTime":1163.575,"endTime":1164.865,"body":"They can be very destructive."},{"startTime":1165.735,"endTime":1168.625,"body":"They can have a big, uh, practical implication."},{"startTime":1168.625,"endTime":1172.897,"body":"So for example, if you're trying to carry, uh, dig people outta rubble, and then"},{"startTime":1172.897,"endTime":1173.182,"body":"there's another shock that can make it both dangerous for them and for the people"},{"startTime":1173.182,"endTime":1178.025,"body":"who are responding."},{"startTime":1178.245,"endTime":1180.425,"body":"It also has a big psychological impact."},{"startTime":1180.645,"endTime":1185.003,"body":"People who've seen buildings flattened around them, they can't have a feeling of, right, well,"},{"startTime":1185.003,"endTime":1185.585,"body":"that's over."},{"startTime":1185.735,"endTime":1186.785,"body":"I've now got to rebuild."},{"startTime":1186.785,"endTime":1189.942,"body":"We've got to just get, because more events are gonna occur and they could actually"},{"startTime":1189.942,"endTime":1190.785,"body":"be very severe events."},{"startTime":1191.245,"endTime":1196.625,"body":"So it actually makes practical implications much more tricky, uh, and it definitely complicates recovery."},{"startTime":1197.125,"endTime":1201.601,"body":"And on the bottom here, what I've shown is a graph showing that the first,"},{"startTime":1201.601,"endTime":1204.585,"body":"uh, big quake occurred, uh, on the 25th of April."},{"startTime":1205.165,"endTime":1206.105,"body":"And then there was a series."},{"startTime":1206.135,"endTime":1210.492,"body":"Each one of those, uh, those, uh, yellow dots is an aftershock, the higher it"},{"startTime":1210.492,"endTime":1211.945,"body":"is, the bigger it is."},{"startTime":1212.165,"endTime":1217.099,"body":"And then there was a second really major aftershock, almost essentially a new earthquake, uh,"},{"startTime":1217.099,"endTime":1221.705,"body":"which occurred on the 18th of May at the far end of the unzipping."},{"startTime":1221.925,"endTime":1225.385,"body":"And a lot of the damage in fact, was caused by that second aftershock."},{"startTime":1229.335,"endTime":1233.185,"body":"This then means that you can have, um, immediate effects, but then delayed effects."},{"startTime":1233.485,"endTime":1235.505,"body":"So the immediate effect of buildings falling down."},{"startTime":1235.845,"endTime":1241.627,"body":"But you may then have a secondary effect as things fall away, uh, when there"},{"startTime":1241.627,"endTime":1247.025,"body":"is further, um, uh, further, uh, shakes that occasionally or, or frequently occur afterwards."},{"startTime":1247.385,"endTime":1249.085,"body":"And these can cause landslides."},{"startTime":1249.665,"endTime":1253.469,"body":"And that's even more likely if you've got a lot of rain, which actually essentially"},{"startTime":1253.469,"endTime":1255.245,"body":"loosens up, uh, gravel and other areas."},{"startTime":1256.705,"endTime":1260.843,"body":"You can also get a situation where two earthquakes, uh, or an earthquake leads to"},{"startTime":1260.843,"endTime":1261.119,"body":"two land slips, or one big land slip leading to a temporary dam at the"},{"startTime":1261.119,"endTime":1266.085,"body":"bottom of the valley."},{"startTime":1266.695,"endTime":1268.605,"body":"Water builds up beneath, beneath that."},{"startTime":1269.065,"endTime":1274.435,"body":"And then, uh, weeks or uh, even months later, that dam bursts flooding the area"},{"startTime":1274.435,"endTime":1279.805,"body":"below it so you can get a whole series of physical effects, which are delayed."},{"startTime":1282.875,"endTime":1287.759,"body":"Mapping these out is very important, and, uh, to some extent, the damage can be"},{"startTime":1287.759,"endTime":1288.085,"body":"predictable."},{"startTime":1288.505,"endTime":1291.955,"body":"And the reason for that is that the big landslides will occur where there's a"},{"startTime":1291.955,"endTime":1292.645,"body":"very steep gradient."},{"startTime":1293.745,"endTime":1297.375,"body":"So a lot of the initial damage of the earthquake was caused in the, on"},{"startTime":1297.375,"endTime":1301.005,"body":"the flats, 'cause that's where the big earthquake was, that's where the large cities were."},{"startTime":1301.225,"endTime":1305.787,"body":"But some of the, lot of the subsequent damage was caused in the mountains because"},{"startTime":1305.787,"endTime":1310.045,"body":"that's where the cliffs are, and that's the areas which can then geographically collapse."},{"startTime":1310.145,"endTime":1314.226,"body":"And you can see on the right, this is from a journal, uh, in, uh,"},{"startTime":1314.226,"endTime":1314.498,"body":"2015, you can see, uh, the difference between, uh, before and after the land slips"},{"startTime":1314.498,"endTime":1320.485,"body":"that occurred in one of these collapses is"},{"startTime":1326.375,"endTime":1330.101,"body":"So you then have, you've got the earthquake, you've got the aftershocks, and then the"},{"startTime":1330.101,"endTime":1332.835,"body":"third thing which can occur is a change in the weather."},{"startTime":1333.935,"endTime":1338.146,"body":"And in, uh, south and central Asia as in much of the world, uh, there's"},{"startTime":1338.146,"endTime":1341.515,"body":"a heavy monsoon that is relatively predictable in terms of its timing."},{"startTime":1342.015,"endTime":1344.475,"body":"And the earthquake occurred before the monsoon."},{"startTime":1345.215,"endTime":1351.23,"body":"So you had the earthquake, you then had the, um, uh, aftershock, and then the"},{"startTime":1351.23,"endTime":1353.235,"body":"monsoon started the following month."},{"startTime":1353.415,"endTime":1356.555,"body":"And in the monsoons in, uh, in a Asia are very heavy."},{"startTime":1356.615,"endTime":1357.555,"body":"The rain is very heavy."},{"startTime":1358.095,"endTime":1364.129,"body":"And as a result of that, you end up with landslides and destruction, which actually,"},{"startTime":1364.129,"endTime":1368.555,"body":"essentially the shaking has damaged and weakened areas, physical or manmade."},{"startTime":1368.935,"endTime":1373.455,"body":"Uh, and, um, uh, then you end up with, uh, these, and you can also"},{"startTime":1373.455,"endTime":1377.675,"body":"get to, uh, problems of exposure because of the weather becoming much more adverse."},{"startTime":1377.975,"endTime":1381.075,"body":"So these are all later effects you can occur."},{"startTime":1381.215,"endTime":1384.585,"body":"You can, uh, you can get, uh, as a result of changing the weather after"},{"startTime":1384.585,"endTime":1385.035,"body":"an earthquake."},{"startTime":1391.015,"endTime":1396.227,"body":"Now, what were the factors that were important, both positive and negative on the tragic"},{"startTime":1396.227,"endTime":1399.355,"body":"destruction and loss of life that happened in Nepal?"},{"startTime":1399.855,"endTime":1405.105,"body":"Uh, here are some, it was a relatively shallow earthquake as earthquakes go, that had"},{"startTime":1405.105,"endTime":1408.955,"body":"quite big implications for how strong it was and its amplitude."},{"startTime":1408.955,"endTime":1414.975,"body":"Among other things, cat mandu was built on sediment, and this led to a particular"},{"startTime":1414.975,"endTime":1420.595,"body":"kind of waveform that meant that some buildings fell down and others did not."},{"startTime":1420.655,"endTime":1423.986,"body":"And he, if you look at photographs from the time, you can see some buildings"},{"startTime":1423.986,"endTime":1424.875,"body":"that look almost intact."},{"startTime":1424.875,"endTime":1429.334,"body":"And next door to it, a building that's collapsed, that was to do the amplitude"},{"startTime":1429.334,"endTime":1432.605,"body":"of the wave that was passing through the epicenter was rural."},{"startTime":1432.785,"endTime":1436.045,"body":"But as the wave propagated, it went through very populated areas."},{"startTime":1437.065,"endTime":1440.565,"body":"So that's a, that's a, a physical, sorry, a human factor."},{"startTime":1441.105,"endTime":1445.347,"body":"And then there were two things, which this was a tragic and appalling earthquake, but"},{"startTime":1445.347,"endTime":1447.045,"body":"it could have been even worse."},{"startTime":1448.025,"endTime":1450.805,"body":"It occurred on a Saturday, so schools were not in place."},{"startTime":1451.025,"endTime":1454.353,"body":"And I saw many schools that had collapsed, had children been there, they would all"},{"startTime":1454.353,"endTime":1455.685,"body":"have been killed in the rubble."},{"startTime":1455.745,"endTime":1460.005,"body":"So that was at least one small mercy in this, and it was daytime."},{"startTime":1460.145,"endTime":1464.18,"body":"So many people were outside who, if it, if it occurred at night, would've been"},{"startTime":1464.18,"endTime":1465.525,"body":"inside and when buildings collapsed."},{"startTime":1465.745,"endTime":1470.059,"body":"So these kind of quite small changes can have big, the same earthquake and have"},{"startTime":1470.059,"endTime":1470.347,"body":"very different impacts in terms of the, uh, effect on li loss of life, uh,"},{"startTime":1470.347,"endTime":1475.525,"body":"and damage to humans."},{"startTime":1479.145,"endTime":1484.389,"body":"Now, after the initial quake, there is some in, um, uh, immediate priorities, uh, and"},{"startTime":1484.389,"endTime":1489.285,"body":"then you need to think about the longer term in some kind of order."},{"startTime":1489.785,"endTime":1490.765,"body":"The first is trauma."},{"startTime":1490.765,"endTime":1495.706,"body":"Things falling on people, people falling out of, uh, high buildings, whatever, uh, trauma of"},{"startTime":1495.706,"endTime":1496.365,"body":"different sorts."},{"startTime":1496.785,"endTime":1499.427,"body":"Uh, any of you who've done a fir done a first aid course will be"},{"startTime":1499.427,"endTime":1501.365,"body":"well aware of the kind of things you'd be talking about."},{"startTime":1501.365,"endTime":1507.08,"body":"Breaks bone, broken bones, very serious damage, uh, in terms of, uh, people hitting things"},{"startTime":1507.08,"endTime":1508.605,"body":"or things hitting them."},{"startTime":1509.875,"endTime":1513.485,"body":"There's then a large, uh, need to search for survivors."},{"startTime":1514.275,"endTime":1516.925,"body":"Many people will still be alive, but buried under rubble."},{"startTime":1518.305,"endTime":1523.645,"body":"And there is a lot of scientific and engineering expertise, which tends when there's an"},{"startTime":1523.645,"endTime":1524.001,"body":"earthquake, people will fly in, bringing in expertise, radars, uh, heat finding areas, uh, dogs"},{"startTime":1524.001,"endTime":1534.325,"body":"which are very good at, uh, sniffing out where the people are there, acoustic devices."},{"startTime":1535.305,"endTime":1540.439,"body":"And then very, very clever and dangerous engineering to remove rubble from people while staffer"},{"startTime":1540.439,"endTime":1544.205,"body":"shocks are going on to try and remove them from danger."},{"startTime":1544.345,"endTime":1549.737,"body":"So this is a whole area of engineering science, disaster recovery, where there's a lot"},{"startTime":1549.737,"endTime":1550.097,"body":"of international expertise around the world, including the uk actually clean water, uh, is a"},{"startTime":1550.097,"endTime":1558.725,"body":"really serious risk 'cause water mains will have been fractured."},{"startTime":1559.105,"endTime":1562.805,"body":"Uh, lots of, um, sewage works will have started flowing into the water area."},{"startTime":1563.225,"endTime":1566.725,"body":"So actually getting people drinking water is an immediate priority."},{"startTime":1566.725,"endTime":1573.501,"body":"People can die very quickly of dehydration if it occurs in, uh, winter shelter is"},{"startTime":1573.501,"endTime":1574.405,"body":"very important."},{"startTime":1574.555,"endTime":1578.359,"body":"Lots of people's, uh, homes will have been shaken down or will now be so"},{"startTime":1578.359,"endTime":1578.613,"body":"unstable, it'd be very dangerous to have them living there, uh, as if aftershocks, uh,"},{"startTime":1578.613,"endTime":1582.925,"body":"carry on occurring."},{"startTime":1583.985,"endTime":1587.942,"body":"And then alongside this, all the systems of the state, all the systems of the"},{"startTime":1587.942,"endTime":1589.525,"body":"private sector will have stopped working."},{"startTime":1590.425,"endTime":1597.045,"body":"So, food, schooling, health services, the rule of law, all of these simply stop."},{"startTime":1597.985,"endTime":1603.826,"body":"So society is, is is essentially frozen, uh, in time for a period and will"},{"startTime":1603.826,"endTime":1604.605,"body":"be overwhelmed."},{"startTime":1605.865,"endTime":1609.005,"body":"And then finally, um, transport in and out may be very difficult."},{"startTime":1609.425,"endTime":1613.395,"body":"So if there's only one, um, uh, airport, for example, the airport may itself have"},{"startTime":1613.395,"endTime":1613.925,"body":"been damaged."},{"startTime":1614.185,"endTime":1617.165,"body":"So all the international teams may have significant problems getting in."},{"startTime":1617.225,"endTime":1622.165,"body":"So there, there is sort of larger, uh, issues in terms of disaster relief"},{"startTime":1625.355,"endTime":1626.045,"body":"Immediately."},{"startTime":1626.045,"endTime":1630.765,"body":"In terms of the, the slightly narrower view about how you consider, um, healthcare needs."},{"startTime":1631.185,"endTime":1636.102,"body":"Uh, here are some of the things we need to consider fractures, uh, ordinary and"},{"startTime":1636.102,"endTime":1638.725,"body":"more complicated soft tissue indu injuries and wounds."},{"startTime":1638.865,"endTime":1643.416,"body":"So when people have got very torn ligaments, for example, other, uh, damage of that"},{"startTime":1643.416,"endTime":1643.719,"body":"sort, uh, burns, if there'd been major fires as there was in San Francisco, uh,"},{"startTime":1643.719,"endTime":1649.485,"body":"will be a significant priority."},{"startTime":1649.485,"endTime":1654.015,"body":"And if people have had major burns, these are complicated to manage, uh, and dangerous,"},{"startTime":1654.015,"endTime":1655.525,"body":"uh, for the people involved."},{"startTime":1657.065,"endTime":1661.55,"body":"Um, inhalation from dust kicked up may cause quite a lot of damage in the"},{"startTime":1661.55,"endTime":1661.849,"body":"lungs, partic, and that may include many quite dangerous building materials and head injuries, which"},{"startTime":1661.849,"endTime":1662.148,"body":"are always complicated to manage, even if you have, uh, quite good systems with CT"},{"startTime":1662.148,"endTime":1662.447,"body":"scanners that are working MRI scanners that are working, which in this situation, uh, you"},{"startTime":1662.447,"endTime":1675.605,"body":"will not,"},{"startTime":1677.155,"endTime":1681.896,"body":"Something which is particularly likely to occur in earthquakes, not in other environments, is what's"},{"startTime":1681.896,"endTime":1682.845,"body":"called crush injuries."},{"startTime":1683.505,"endTime":1688.65,"body":"And that's when the, the tissues have been crushed under a lot of weight and"},{"startTime":1688.65,"endTime":1690.365,"body":"then are potentially suddenly released."},{"startTime":1690.985,"endTime":1693.885,"body":"Uh, and several things can occur, which are relatively specific."},{"startTime":1693.905,"endTime":1695.045,"body":"The first of which is shock."},{"startTime":1695.045,"endTime":1697.245,"body":"Shock is when your blood pressure suddenly drops."},{"startTime":1697.545,"endTime":1700.885,"body":"And that's because a lot of fluid is leaking into the rest of your body."},{"startTime":1700.945,"endTime":1704.365,"body":"So people can get shock very easily when they're pulled outta the rubble."},{"startTime":1704.365,"endTime":1710.259,"body":"The shock, uh, can set in because a lot of, um, cells are being destroyed"},{"startTime":1710.259,"endTime":1711.045,"body":"and crushed."},{"startTime":1711.345,"endTime":1718.761,"body":"Uh, you can get electrolyte imbalances, uh, sorts, potassium, sodium, calcium going up or down"},{"startTime":1718.761,"endTime":1720.245,"body":"in large numbers."},{"startTime":1720.545,"endTime":1726.12,"body":"And that in turn can lead to heart rhythm problems and cardiac arrest, uh, in"},{"startTime":1726.12,"endTime":1731.325,"body":"some cases, crushing of muscle tends to cause damage, which, uh, damages kidney kidneys."},{"startTime":1731.325,"endTime":1735.485,"body":"So kidney damage tends to be quite common after these crush injuries."},{"startTime":1735.745,"endTime":1740.277,"body":"And then there's something on legs and arms called compartment syndrome where you get swelling"},{"startTime":1740.277,"endTime":1744.205,"body":"and that can lead to, uh, the viability of the limb being damaged."},{"startTime":1744.225,"endTime":1748.628,"body":"So a whole bunch of things can happen, even when you've rescued someone, they can"},{"startTime":1748.628,"endTime":1752.445,"body":"be left with very, uh, severe or life-threatening injuries from these crush injuries."},{"startTime":1756.185,"endTime":1757.165,"body":"In the medium term."},{"startTime":1757.425,"endTime":1762.877,"body":"Uh, after you've done this, uh, there are then a series of, uh, predictable next"},{"startTime":1762.877,"endTime":1763.605,"body":"stops steps."},{"startTime":1764.685,"endTime":1768.855,"body":"Loss of water and sanitation is almost invariable after a major earthquake."},{"startTime":1769.315,"endTime":1773.743,"body":"And that in medical terms means firstly, obviously you've got to deal with dehydration, but"},{"startTime":1773.743,"endTime":1776.695,"body":"then immediately after that you've got to think about sanitation."},{"startTime":1777.315,"endTime":1780.975,"body":"The major diarrheal diseases are much more likely to suddenly occur."},{"startTime":1781.465,"endTime":1786.965,"body":"And just accuse an example of the, uh, appalling Haiti earthquake in 2010."},{"startTime":1787.385,"endTime":1792.62,"body":"Uh, some cholera was imported into the, uh, the, the, um, country as part of"},{"startTime":1792.62,"endTime":1794.365,"body":"the relief effort actually is."},{"startTime":1794.365,"endTime":1799.086,"body":"It happens, uh, uh, in a very fragile system after an earthquake and led to"},{"startTime":1799.086,"endTime":1801.605,"body":"large numbers of cases, uh, and of deaths."},{"startTime":1802.665,"endTime":1806.52,"body":"You're gonna get crowding 'cause people will have to crowd into the small remaining number"},{"startTime":1806.52,"endTime":1807.805,"body":"of places you can live."},{"startTime":1808.145,"endTime":1810.125,"body":"Uh, and you'll get pooling of, uh, water."},{"startTime":1810.545,"endTime":1815.455,"body":"And these are ideal environments for respiratory infections and vector-borne infections, mosquito-borne things like malaria,"},{"startTime":1815.455,"endTime":1820.365,"body":"if you're on the right part of the year, uh, park part of the country."},{"startTime":1820.665,"endTime":1825.0,"body":"And then there'll be a big breakdown in all the preventative services, all the curative"},{"startTime":1825.0,"endTime":1826.445,"body":"services of the health system."},{"startTime":1826.785,"endTime":1827.845,"body":"And they'll happen suddenly."},{"startTime":1828.185,"endTime":1833.325,"body":"So all the things that were previously protecting people, uh, will suddenly stop."},{"startTime":1834.385,"endTime":1838.885,"body":"You'll get, uh, malnutrition if people are, are short of food, which they often will"},{"startTime":1838.885,"endTime":1841.885,"body":"be, and exposure if it's the wrong time of year."},{"startTime":1842.025,"endTime":1845.665,"body":"So these are predictable and you have to plan for them from the moment you"},{"startTime":1845.665,"endTime":1847.365,"body":"know that one of these has occurred."},{"startTime":1848.025,"endTime":1852.328,"body":"To get the kit in, to get the, uh, the response in in, uh, it's"},{"startTime":1852.328,"endTime":1852.615,"body":"a different set of challenges to the engineering challenges of getting people out of, uh,"},{"startTime":1852.615,"endTime":1857.205,"body":"destroyed buildings."},{"startTime":1859.705,"endTime":1865.51,"body":"And then, uh, you have the long-term health effects, uh, which can last, last, uh,"},{"startTime":1865.51,"endTime":1867.445,"body":"months to years to generations."},{"startTime":1868.465,"endTime":1872.605,"body":"Uh, large numbers of people will have their livelihoods destroyed in an instant."},{"startTime":1873.575,"endTime":1879.645,"body":"Their shop, their farm, or their cows, whatever it might be destroyed suddenly."},{"startTime":1880.465,"endTime":1884.205,"body":"Uh, and this can be multi-generational, not covered by insurance."},{"startTime":1884.385,"endTime":1889.525,"body":"Uh, as, for example, exploitation happens after all emergencies and is a big risk."},{"startTime":1889.525,"endTime":1893.725,"body":"You have to watch for that very carefully in the immediate response of almost any"},{"startTime":1893.725,"endTime":1894.005,"body":"disaster."},{"startTime":1894.615,"endTime":1899.368,"body":"There will be a big step backwards in health services for a prolonged period of"},{"startTime":1899.368,"endTime":1899.685,"body":"time."},{"startTime":1900.025,"endTime":1904.979,"body":"And if you are in a fragile country, that can have an effect over decades,"},{"startTime":1904.979,"endTime":1905.309,"body":"where health services has been built up over decades, suddenly goes backwards, uh, uh, in"},{"startTime":1905.309,"endTime":1912.245,"body":"terms of its, its ability to respond."},{"startTime":1913.545,"endTime":1919.085,"body":"And there will be, uh, big psychological harms to many people, it's quite scary."},{"startTime":1919.085,"endTime":1923.501,"body":"Living in a city which has had a big earthquake, multiple earthquakes, and now you"},{"startTime":1923.501,"endTime":1926.445,"body":"are living there again, this can have significant psychological effects."},{"startTime":1927.065,"endTime":1931.208,"body":"Uh, and of course the longer term effects of things like vaccination being breaking, broken"},{"startTime":1931.208,"endTime":1931.485,"body":"down,"},{"startTime":1936.185,"endTime":1940.54,"body":"It is possible, however, to do things either before an earthquake or after it, uh,"},{"startTime":1940.54,"endTime":1944.605,"body":"significantly to reduce the risk that it's going to cause massive loss of life."},{"startTime":1945.265,"endTime":1947.485,"body":"But you can never take that risk down to zero."},{"startTime":1947.625,"endTime":1950.485,"body":"But you can reduce it very significantly by planning."},{"startTime":1951.625,"endTime":1955.842,"body":"The first thing is to work out where earthquakes are like to occur, and then"},{"startTime":1955.842,"endTime":1956.123,"body":"within them to do things like planning all the routes from the airport to the,"},{"startTime":1956.123,"endTime":1956.405,"body":"uh, emergency services where all the hospitals are, where all the emergence or all the,"},{"startTime":1956.405,"endTime":1965.965,"body":"uh, water systems are, for example."},{"startTime":1966.225,"endTime":1969.108,"body":"So when you've seen the damage of the earthquake, you can work out where things"},{"startTime":1969.108,"endTime":1969.685,"body":"are gonna occur."},{"startTime":1971.225,"endTime":1975.085,"body":"The second and absolutely critical is engineering down the risk."},{"startTime":1976.505,"endTime":1982.289,"body":"If you had a, an earthquake of, let us say 7.5 in Central Tokyo or"},{"startTime":1982.289,"endTime":1982.675,"body":"in many, uh, areas such as Haiti, which have got, uh, much less good engineering"},{"startTime":1982.675,"endTime":1983.061,"body":"standards, the loss of life would be massively greater in the area, uh, of lower"},{"startTime":1983.061,"endTime":1994.245,"body":"income."},{"startTime":1995.315,"endTime":2000.845,"body":"Good engineering, knowing an earthquake's gonna occur, can engineer down the risk very substantially."},{"startTime":2000.865,"endTime":2005.267,"body":"And engineers can say, this earth, this is, this building is not earthquake proof, but"},{"startTime":2005.267,"endTime":2005.561,"body":"it's proof against something for, you know, it's a hundred year type event is a"},{"startTime":2005.561,"endTime":2010.845,"body":"thousand year type event."},{"startTime":2011.225,"endTime":2017.498,"body":"And you can particularly concentrate on making sure that big public buildings like schools, hospitals,"},{"startTime":2017.498,"endTime":2020.845,"body":"areas, people are gonna congregate, uh, are protected."},{"startTime":2022.425,"endTime":2025.525,"body":"Um, uh, and therefore, uh, loss of life will be minimized."},{"startTime":2025.825,"endTime":2029.045,"body":"So there are things you can do in the immediate term, medium term, predictable things."},{"startTime":2029.045,"endTime":2033.466,"body":"And then the long term is large in engineering challenge, uh, but one which, uh,"},{"startTime":2033.466,"endTime":2034.645,"body":"we know, uh, works."},{"startTime":2036.385,"endTime":2038.485,"body":"So that's, uh, earthquakes moving on to."},{"startTime":2038.625,"endTime":2042.277,"body":"And the second two I'll do in a slightly shorter time, 'cause earthquakes are the"},{"startTime":2042.277,"endTime":2042.765,"body":"most common."},{"startTime":2043.105,"endTime":2047.445,"body":"Moving on to tsunamis, tsunamis are big waves."},{"startTime":2047.445,"endTime":2049.645,"body":"And I think, again, everyone, uh, will be aware of them."},{"startTime":2050.025,"endTime":2055.818,"body":"80, roughly 80% of them are from earthquakes, uh, some of them before volcanoes or"},{"startTime":2055.818,"endTime":2056.205,"body":"landslides."},{"startTime":2056.205,"endTime":2061.15,"body":"And in the deep past, and no doubt in the, hopefully deep future asteroids hitting"},{"startTime":2061.15,"endTime":2061.48,"body":"water, rather like a po pebble being dropped into a pool cause massive, uh, waves"},{"startTime":2061.48,"endTime":2068.405,"body":"that can occur, uh, out outside them."},{"startTime":2069.435,"endTime":2071.485,"body":"What you get then is a long wave."},{"startTime":2072.225,"endTime":2076.597,"body":"And it's very different to the waves that you normally see in, uh, the sea,"},{"startTime":2076.597,"endTime":2079.804,"body":"which just occur in the surface area, driven by the wind."},{"startTime":2080.655,"endTime":2086.045,"body":"These are waves that go through the entire water column and they move extraordinarily fast."},{"startTime":2087.145,"endTime":2091.659,"body":"So they can go up to 800 or a thousand kilometers an hour in terms"},{"startTime":2091.659,"endTime":2093.165,"body":"of their speed of movement."},{"startTime":2093.824,"endTime":2096.324,"body":"But if you're on a boat on top of them, you'd hardly notice it."},{"startTime":2097.025,"endTime":2099.245,"body":"The issue comes when it starts to get close to land."},{"startTime":2099.245,"endTime":2103.005,"body":"And again, people who've done physics recently will, will recognize this phenomenon."},{"startTime":2103.105,"endTime":2108.492,"body":"As it gets shallower, the wave slows down and it gets bigger, uh, and it"},{"startTime":2108.492,"endTime":2111.725,"body":"can grow to a very, uh, large, uh, wave."},{"startTime":2111.865,"endTime":2118.521,"body":"Indeed, uh, anywhere between three and 30 meters would be perfectly typical for a major"},{"startTime":2118.521,"endTime":2118.965,"body":"tsunami."},{"startTime":2119.195,"endTime":2121.565,"body":"I'll put a sense of scale for that in a second."},{"startTime":2122.195,"endTime":2126.506,"body":"They are immensely powerful when they hit land and up to, you know, no more"},{"startTime":2126.506,"endTime":2126.793,"body":"than 15 centimeters with the of water moving at the speed they will move, is"},{"startTime":2126.793,"endTime":2133.405,"body":"quite capable of knocking an adult off their feet."},{"startTime":2133.865,"endTime":2137.835,"body":"So don't be, don't be sort of fooled by the fact it doesn't look terribly"},{"startTime":2137.835,"endTime":2138.365,"body":"deep initially,"},{"startTime":2144.065,"endTime":2149.24,"body":"The most extreme recent example of this and, um, uh, it was a huge tragedy"},{"startTime":2149.24,"endTime":2149.585,"body":"of its, uh, of its era and still has, uh, implications now, uh, was the"},{"startTime":2149.585,"endTime":2156.485,"body":"boxing data s army of 2004."},{"startTime":2156.705,"endTime":2160.245,"body":"So this is actually still under, uh, under 20 years ago."},{"startTime":2161.115,"endTime":2164.365,"body":"This is a large earthquake, uh, 9.1 earthquake."},{"startTime":2164.905,"endTime":2168.565,"body":"Uh, and it occurred, uh, 30 kilometers below sea level."},{"startTime":2168.945,"endTime":2173.885,"body":"So quite deep actually as, uh, compared to where we are off, uh, Indonesia."},{"startTime":2175.185,"endTime":2183.695,"body":"It killed over the next, uh, days and weeks, probably, uh, just shy of, uh,"},{"startTime":2183.695,"endTime":2185.965,"body":"228,000 people this wave."},{"startTime":2186.185,"endTime":2192.696,"body":"So massive loss, uh, of life in 14 countries 'cause it's spread out from its"},{"startTime":2192.696,"endTime":2193.565,"body":"initial epicenter."},{"startTime":2194.415,"endTime":2199.147,"body":"Waves are up to 30 meters high, uh, which is high just to look up,"},{"startTime":2199.147,"endTime":2200.725,"body":"uh, to think about this."},{"startTime":2201.025,"endTime":2205.431,"body":"And it spread across the Indian ocean hitting India, uh, a a couple of hours"},{"startTime":2205.431,"endTime":2205.725,"body":"later."},{"startTime":2206.105,"endTime":2211.141,"body":"Uh, and, um, uh, Africa, and I'll show this in terms of numbers, uh, about"},{"startTime":2211.141,"endTime":2212.485,"body":"seven hours, uh, later."},{"startTime":2213.945,"endTime":2217.682,"body":"So that scale on the right is just to give you a sense of what"},{"startTime":2217.682,"endTime":2219.925,"body":"a 10 meter wave is like compared to you."},{"startTime":2220.705,"endTime":2222.885,"body":"And 30 meters, of course, is three times higher than that."},{"startTime":2223.065,"endTime":2224.125,"body":"So these are big,"},{"startTime":2226.145,"endTime":2230.845,"body":"If you are in a potentially low lying area, the things to watch out for"},{"startTime":2230.845,"endTime":2231.158,"body":"a shaking of the earth of any sort, the sea going out a long way"},{"startTime":2231.158,"endTime":2238.365,"body":"very suddenly, or a tsunami warning on your phone."},{"startTime":2239.145,"endTime":2244.786,"body":"And, uh, as a result of this, there's much more, uh, careful, um, mapping out"},{"startTime":2244.786,"endTime":2245.163,"body":"tsunamis and tsunami warnings, uh, particularly in the Pacific, uh, area if any of these"},{"startTime":2245.163,"endTime":2250.805,"body":"occur."},{"startTime":2251.425,"endTime":2252.925,"body":"Get to high ground fast."},{"startTime":2257.225,"endTime":2262.006,"body":"So the tsunami, um, uh, that occurred in Indonesia was the largest one in recorded"},{"startTime":2262.006,"endTime":2262.325,"body":"history."},{"startTime":2262.325,"endTime":2264.965,"body":"But they've occurred, uh, multiple times through history."},{"startTime":2265.865,"endTime":2271.285,"body":"Um, their, uh, most well described in Japan, which actually named, uh, tsunamis."},{"startTime":2272.225,"endTime":2275.285,"body":"But, um, you can also get tsunamis occurring in Europe."},{"startTime":2275.385,"endTime":2279.165,"body":"And I've just chosen, uh, the Lisbon Tsunami of 1755."},{"startTime":2280.145,"endTime":2283.285,"body":"So this was a major earthquake followed by a tsunami."},{"startTime":2283.905,"endTime":2288.743,"body":"And the tsunami, uh, went through, uh, Portugal, um, up to the, out to the"},{"startTime":2288.743,"endTime":2289.066,"body":"Zos, uh, went along North Africa, uh, France, and actually hit Cornwall where it was"},{"startTime":2289.066,"endTime":2296.485,"body":"described as having a wave of about three meters."},{"startTime":2296.735,"endTime":2299.605,"body":"Still very large, uh, and great loss of life."},{"startTime":2299.955,"endTime":2301.325,"body":"Numbers are not clear."},{"startTime":2301.345,"endTime":2304.325,"body":"So you can certainly get tsunamis affecting here."},{"startTime":2304.705,"endTime":2306.285,"body":"Uh, in, in deeper history."},{"startTime":2306.625,"endTime":2310.405,"body":"Uh, we've had very major ts armies occurring in the uk."},{"startTime":2310.945,"endTime":2316.445,"body":"Um, for example, from landslides in Norway falling off, uh, large mountains."},{"startTime":2316.745,"endTime":2320.992,"body":"Uh, the, uh, Canary Islands, uh, in theory could cause a tsunami at the other"},{"startTime":2320.992,"endTime":2322.125,"body":"side of the uk."},{"startTime":2322.305,"endTime":2326.521,"body":"So any country that has got a coast potentially is at risk of tsunami, uh,"},{"startTime":2326.521,"endTime":2327.365,"body":"from somewhere else."},{"startTime":2330.185,"endTime":2334.97,"body":"The risks to health from tsunamis are overlap with, but are not absolutely identical with"},{"startTime":2334.97,"endTime":2336.885,"body":"those, uh, from a, an earthquake."},{"startTime":2337.305,"endTime":2339.325,"body":"Um, of course the biggest difference is drowning."},{"startTime":2339.465,"endTime":2344.317,"body":"People caught in this incredibly fast moving water are highly likely to be at risk"},{"startTime":2344.317,"endTime":2344.965,"body":"of drowning."},{"startTime":2345.665,"endTime":2349.091,"body":"Um, uh, you can also get trauma from debris if you are floating through the"},{"startTime":2349.091,"endTime":2350.005,"body":"water at great speed."},{"startTime":2350.465,"endTime":2354.327,"body":"Uh, and, uh, you are hit by something, uh, trauma occurs just as easily as"},{"startTime":2354.327,"endTime":2356.645,"body":"it does from something falling from a great height."},{"startTime":2356.865,"endTime":2361.895,"body":"And just to give you some sense of scale of the force of these, uh,"},{"startTime":2361.895,"endTime":2366.925,"body":"that is a 2,600 ton vessel carried two to three kilometers inland by the tsunami."},{"startTime":2366.945,"endTime":2369.525,"body":"So these things have got enormous power."},{"startTime":2370.865,"endTime":2374.765,"body":"And then you can get infection from contaminated waters 'cause it will flood all the"},{"startTime":2374.765,"endTime":2375.285,"body":"water things."},{"startTime":2375.285,"endTime":2379.645,"body":"So basically what you are swimming around in, in is, uh, is diluted sewage."},{"startTime":2379.905,"endTime":2383.045,"body":"Uh, so this is an additional risk, uh, as well."},{"startTime":2383.345,"endTime":2387.285,"body":"Longer term you are gonna get destruction of safe water and sanitation for some time."},{"startTime":2387.285,"endTime":2391.199,"body":"They'll all be flooded, uh, and have been many will be destroyed, uh, because you've"},{"startTime":2391.199,"endTime":2392.765,"body":"got lots of pools of water."},{"startTime":2393.235,"endTime":2397.125,"body":"It's an ideal breeding ground for many vectors, mosquitoes in particular."},{"startTime":2397.465,"endTime":2403.045,"body":"So if dengue or malaria are risk locally, the likelihood is you're gonna get those"},{"startTime":2403.045,"endTime":2406.765,"body":"occurring, uh, and a massive disruption of homes and livelihoods."},{"startTime":2411.905,"endTime":2415.83,"body":"This is the, uh, one bit of first aid I thought I'd, um, talk about,"},{"startTime":2415.83,"endTime":2419.755,"body":"just because I think it's very important for everybody to feel comfortable dealing with drowning."},{"startTime":2419.755,"endTime":2422.38,"body":"Well, comfortable is too strong a word, but feel they know at least what to"},{"startTime":2422.38,"endTime":2422.555,"body":"do."},{"startTime":2422.555,"endTime":2425.315,"body":"And the answer is it's a relatively straightforward things."},{"startTime":2425.315,"endTime":2426.275,"body":"Those of you done, St."},{"startTime":2426.275,"endTime":2430.959,"body":"John's Ambulance or other training in First aid will recognize this if someone has drowned,"},{"startTime":2430.959,"endTime":2434.395,"body":"whether it's falling into a river or hit by a tsunami."},{"startTime":2434.735,"endTime":2439.245,"body":"Uh, important to do CPR compressions where you pump on the chest, uh, much bigger"},{"startTime":2439.245,"endTime":2443.755,"body":"pumping if you've got a adult smaller, if you've got a, a very small child."},{"startTime":2443.775,"endTime":2445.515,"body":"But the basic principle is the same."},{"startTime":2445.815,"endTime":2450.585,"body":"And you do 30 chest compressions and then two breaths, uh, in, uh, sorry, five"},{"startTime":2450.585,"endTime":2450.904,"body":"initial breaths, 30 chest compressions, two breaths in, and then just repeat that in a"},{"startTime":2450.904,"endTime":2455.675,"body":"cycle."},{"startTime":2456.175,"endTime":2457.995,"body":"And if they vomit, roll 'em on their side."},{"startTime":2458.015,"endTime":2460.355,"body":"That's basically the first aid for drowning."},{"startTime":2460.375,"endTime":2464.839,"body":"But drowning is a, uh, something from which people can recover if people respond to"},{"startTime":2464.839,"endTime":2465.435,"body":"them rapidly."},{"startTime":2470.355,"endTime":2474.365,"body":"Many emergencies are of course, complex and bring several things together."},{"startTime":2474.425,"endTime":2479.583,"body":"And I last, uh, the last talk I gave on, uh, nuclear and radiological emergencies,"},{"startTime":2479.583,"endTime":2479.927,"body":"I talked about the Fukushima disaster, and that was an example of an earthquake, which"},{"startTime":2479.927,"endTime":2480.271,"body":"shut down the system, damaged it to some degree, but that worked as it was"},{"startTime":2480.271,"endTime":2490.245,"body":"intended."},{"startTime":2490.635,"endTime":2494.469,"body":"Then there was a tsunami due to the earthquake, and that flooded the nuclear power"},{"startTime":2494.469,"endTime":2494.725,"body":"station."},{"startTime":2494.825,"endTime":2499.408,"body":"And that led to a hydrogen buildup, led to an explosion, led to a release"},{"startTime":2499.408,"endTime":2500.325,"body":"of nuclear material."},{"startTime":2500.505,"endTime":2506.921,"body":"So things are often, uh, uh, complicated by the long-term effects of earthquakes, uh, or,"},{"startTime":2506.921,"endTime":2508.205,"body":"um, or SNAs."},{"startTime":2508.425,"endTime":2511.818,"body":"Uh, this had fortunately relatively low health impacts, but it could have been a lot"},{"startTime":2511.818,"endTime":2512.045,"body":"worse."},{"startTime":2515.155,"endTime":2516.725,"body":"Finally, uh, volcanoes."},{"startTime":2518.175,"endTime":2522.895,"body":"There are about, um, uh, uh, one and a half thousand active volcanoes on earth"},{"startTime":2522.895,"endTime":2523.525,"body":"in total."},{"startTime":2523.955,"endTime":2529.605,"body":"Many of them in beautiful and obscure places, but, uh, many are nearer whom inhabitation."},{"startTime":2530.065,"endTime":2535.248,"body":"Uh, in Europe, there are currently, uh, 82 volcanoes that are recognized, but volcanoes can"},{"startTime":2535.248,"endTime":2536.285,"body":"come and go."},{"startTime":2536.785,"endTime":2542.715,"body":"Uh, as you have probably seen recently, uh, in Iceland, they occur near tectonic plates,"},{"startTime":2542.715,"endTime":2548.645,"body":"which are either converging, coming together or diverging, uh, pulling apart, uh, in the main."},{"startTime":2548.945,"endTime":2549.165,"body":"Um,"},{"startTime":2550.745,"endTime":2555.557,"body":"You have very significant risks if you're close to a volcano when it goes off,"},{"startTime":2555.557,"endTime":2555.878,"body":"possibly unsurprisingly, but some of them are more obvious than others, but they can also"},{"startTime":2555.878,"endTime":2556.198,"body":"occur cause risks over distance and earthquakes cause risks over distance because of shaking of"},{"startTime":2556.198,"endTime":2556.519,"body":"the earth, which the bigger the earthquake, the further out it goes, tsunamis cause risks"},{"startTime":2556.519,"endTime":2574.165,"body":"due to a wave hitting, which can travel over many thousands of kilometers."},{"startTime":2574.825,"endTime":2579.839,"body":"Uh, earthquake, uh, volcanoes cause risks principally, uh, through the air, through, uh, material that"},{"startTime":2579.839,"endTime":2581.845,"body":"is spewed up into the atmosphere."},{"startTime":2586.705,"endTime":2589.125,"body":"So the, um, there are multiple volcano types."},{"startTime":2589.225,"endTime":2590.285,"body":"I'm not gonna go through all of them."},{"startTime":2590.585,"endTime":2595.173,"body":"I'm just noting that there are lots of different types of volcanoes and they have"},{"startTime":2595.173,"endTime":2598.845,"body":"slightly different ratios of risks or substantially different risks, uh, between them."},{"startTime":2600.145,"endTime":2604.485,"body":"But, um, there are, uh, predictable risks that are near a volcano."},{"startTime":2604.915,"endTime":2607.165,"body":"Depending on the type will depend."},{"startTime":2607.265,"endTime":2610.765,"body":"Uh, uh, the type will determine which, uh, is the most likely."},{"startTime":2612.065,"endTime":2614.165,"body":"Uh, the first and the most obvious is lava flow."},{"startTime":2615.145,"endTime":2616.165,"body":"It is spectacular."},{"startTime":2616.515,"endTime":2618.005,"body":"It's certainly incredibly hot."},{"startTime":2618.025,"endTime":2622.084,"body":"You, if you are hit by that, then that's your, but if they do move"},{"startTime":2622.084,"endTime":2622.355,"body":"quite slowly, so they're predictable coming down at speed, which humans can usually get outta"},{"startTime":2622.355,"endTime":2626.685,"body":"the way"},{"startTime":2629.715,"endTime":2633.605,"body":"Much, uh, less easy to escape if you are nearby is, uh, tera."},{"startTime":2633.665,"endTime":2637.643,"body":"And that's a combination of ash through to pist stones being thrown up into the"},{"startTime":2637.643,"endTime":2639.765,"body":"air, dropping on you from a great height."},{"startTime":2640.305,"endTime":2645.123,"body":"And this can be ash sounds trivial, but the volumes of it can be absolutely"},{"startTime":2645.123,"endTime":2645.445,"body":"vast."},{"startTime":2645.465,"endTime":2649.248,"body":"And they can land on people, they can suffocate people, they can land on buildings"},{"startTime":2649.248,"endTime":2650.005,"body":"and collapse buildings."},{"startTime":2650.345,"endTime":2655.022,"body":"And the most famous of these is the, uh, is the town of Herculean buried"},{"startTime":2655.022,"endTime":2658.765,"body":"under ash after the eruption of Vesuvius, uh, in, um, 79 ad."},{"startTime":2659.945,"endTime":2663.205,"body":"So ash can be, uh, very destructive, uh, immediately around"},{"startTime":2665.465,"endTime":2670.253,"body":"The ones that are probably less widely, uh, rec recognized, um, by people who've not,"},{"startTime":2670.253,"endTime":2673.765,"body":"uh, sort of thought about about it are, are these ones."},{"startTime":2674.265,"endTime":2677.005,"body":"The first one is something called pyroclastic flow."},{"startTime":2677.665,"endTime":2684.085,"body":"Uh, this is hot gases and material rolling down a mountain at extraordinary speeds."},{"startTime":2684.545,"endTime":2688.245,"body":"So they can go over a hundred kilometers an hour, well beyond what you can"},{"startTime":2688.245,"endTime":2689.725,"body":"obviously outrun or even out drive."},{"startTime":2690.345,"endTime":2693.821,"body":"And they will be, uh, very hot, a hundred to 600 degrees centigrade if they"},{"startTime":2693.821,"endTime":2694.285,"body":"hit you."},{"startTime":2694.515,"endTime":2700.884,"body":"Obviously, uh, you're in deep trouble, uh, lahars lajas, uh, volcanic debris, uh, and water"},{"startTime":2700.884,"endTime":2706.405,"body":"mud flowing at tens of kilometers, and they can again, be very destructive."},{"startTime":2706.405,"endTime":2711.565,"body":"So on the right, uh, is a aha occurred after, um, uh, the volcano montserrat."},{"startTime":2711.945,"endTime":2716.357,"body":"And as you can see, it basically buried everything in its path in mud at,"},{"startTime":2716.357,"endTime":2719.005,"body":"at considerable speed and caused a lot of destruction."},{"startTime":2720.385,"endTime":2725.485,"body":"You can also get, uh, uh, glacial, uh, out outbursts and you can get landslides."},{"startTime":2725.485,"endTime":2729.961,"body":"So there's a variety of ways in which can essentially gravity moving at speed, uh,"},{"startTime":2729.961,"endTime":2733.245,"body":"can hit, hit you in the immediate vicinity of a volcano."},{"startTime":2734.065,"endTime":2739.408,"body":"But the things which cause the damage over the longer distance are gases and volcanoes"},{"startTime":2739.408,"endTime":2739.765,"body":"release."},{"startTime":2740.355,"endTime":2747.422,"body":"Very significant numbers of gases, depending on the volcano type includes carbon dioxide, hydrogen chloride,"},{"startTime":2747.422,"endTime":2748.365,"body":"hydrogen fluoride."},{"startTime":2748.365,"endTime":2749.645,"body":"These are all dangerous gases."},{"startTime":2749.945,"endTime":2755.249,"body":"Uh, again, as many of you'll know, hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide in large quantities, all"},{"startTime":2755.249,"endTime":2757.725,"body":"of these are dangerous through to deadly."},{"startTime":2757.995,"endTime":2761.085,"body":"They're heavier than air, so they tend to pool in lower areas."},{"startTime":2761.105,"endTime":2766.889,"body":"So if you are near a volcan, you feeling unwell, get up, uh, into a"},{"startTime":2766.889,"endTime":2767.275,"body":"higher la higher land away from where these may be pooling and they can travel"},{"startTime":2767.275,"endTime":2773.445,"body":"long distances."},{"startTime":2774.945,"endTime":2781.607,"body":"So this, uh, is, um, uh, an example, uh, the volcanic eruption in 2010 in"},{"startTime":2781.607,"endTime":2785.605,"body":"Iceland, um, spread ash, which travels all around Europe."},{"startTime":2787.315,"endTime":2792.533,"body":"Fortunately, it did relatively little health harm, although it did close airspace over Europe for"},{"startTime":2792.533,"endTime":2793.925,"body":"long periods of time."},{"startTime":2794.385,"endTime":2799.072,"body":"And you can see the size of the ash cloud by seeing that globe at"},{"startTime":2799.072,"endTime":2801.885,"body":"the bottom, uh, done by, uh, the Met office."},{"startTime":2802.305,"endTime":2809.015,"body":"Uh, and, uh, um, uh, the photograph from nasa so the, the gases can move,"},{"startTime":2809.015,"endTime":2810.805,"body":"uh, over considerable distances."},{"startTime":2812.825,"endTime":2816.81,"body":"And if you have one of the more dangerous gases is part of the eruption,"},{"startTime":2816.81,"endTime":2818.405,"body":"which many, uh, eruptions can do."},{"startTime":2818.815,"endTime":2821.445,"body":"These can travel the same sorts of distances."},{"startTime":2822.025,"endTime":2824.925,"body":"So here's an example, um, that affected the uk."},{"startTime":2824.925,"endTime":2828.165,"body":"This is the lack eruption in Iceland in the 1780s."},{"startTime":2828.835,"endTime":2830.325,"body":"It's erupted for over eight months."},{"startTime":2830.435,"endTime":2833.645,"body":"Important point to remember, people think volcanoes just erupt once."},{"startTime":2833.645,"endTime":2837.965,"body":"That's it done, actually, they can erupt over long periods, months or years."},{"startTime":2838.345,"endTime":2844.18,"body":"Uh, in some cases, uh, hydrofluoric acid and sulfur dioxide, uh, were contaminated all of"},{"startTime":2844.18,"endTime":2844.569,"body":"Iceland and led to the destruction of almost, uh, of, of the majority, um, of,"},{"startTime":2844.569,"endTime":2854.685,"body":"uh, the livestock, over 50% of all the livestock leading to famine."},{"startTime":2854.685,"endTime":2859.2,"body":"So they had a big local effect, uh, in farming terms, but they also spread"},{"startTime":2859.2,"endTime":2860.405,"body":"over all of Europe."},{"startTime":2861.145,"endTime":2866.765,"body":"Uh, and, um, uh, the, probably the only estimate that we have is that probably"},{"startTime":2866.765,"endTime":2867.14,"body":"about 23,000 people in the UK died of sulfur dioxide poisoning as a result of"},{"startTime":2867.14,"endTime":2873.885,"body":"a volcano in Iceland."},{"startTime":2874.185,"endTime":2878.085,"body":"So these can travel over long distances if you, if particularly you've got something like"},{"startTime":2878.085,"endTime":2878.345,"body":"asthma, if you've got cardiovascular diseases, a variety of other things, uh, sulfur dioxide can"},{"startTime":2878.345,"endTime":2882.765,"body":"be, uh, fatal."},{"startTime":2883.225,"endTime":2888.547,"body":"It also had a wider effect globally leading to a global drop in temperature, uh,"},{"startTime":2888.547,"endTime":2892.805,"body":"and probably affected monsoons around the world, including aia leading to famines."},{"startTime":2893.265,"endTime":2897.525,"body":"So this is an example of a, uh, a European, um, uh, uh, volcano."},{"startTime":2898.665,"endTime":2903.632,"body":"Um, uh, here are some other, uh, volcanoes, again, I'm not gonna, uh, read them"},{"startTime":2903.632,"endTime":2903.963,"body":"out, but giving you some understanding of the fact that tens or hundreds of thousands"},{"startTime":2903.963,"endTime":2904.295,"body":"of people can be killed when volcanoes erupt by a combination of the immediate effects"},{"startTime":2904.295,"endTime":2918.205,"body":"around the volcano, uh, and the longer term effects, uh, of the gases elsewhere."},{"startTime":2918.625,"endTime":2922.759,"body":"Um, uh, and if they don't do, uh, kill people, they can also, they can"},{"startTime":2922.759,"endTime":2924.965,"body":"certainly, um, change the landscape and changed environment."},{"startTime":2924.965,"endTime":2929.495,"body":"For example, Montserrat, uh, which erupted in the 1990s led to, uh, two thirds of"},{"startTime":2929.495,"endTime":2931.005,"body":"the population leaving the island."},{"startTime":2936.945,"endTime":2942.445,"body":"And then, uh, the longer term health effects of volcanoes have some similarities."},{"startTime":2943.665,"endTime":2947.845,"body":"Uh, first thing again, to repeat, volcanoes can erupt over months to years."},{"startTime":2948.345,"endTime":2951.285,"body":"So this may be something which is going to be a long-term effect."},{"startTime":2951.995,"endTime":2956.874,"body":"They can have a direct effects on health, but they can have indirect effects also"},{"startTime":2956.874,"endTime":2957.2,"body":"by the effect on the weather, on agriculture, uh, and, uh, on, um, people's, uh,"},{"startTime":2957.2,"endTime":2962.405,"body":"psychological states."},{"startTime":2962.435,"endTime":2966.71,"body":"They can lead to people having, again, uh, very serious concerns, particularly they live, uh,"},{"startTime":2966.71,"endTime":2967.565,"body":"in that area."},{"startTime":2968.275,"endTime":2972.673,"body":"They can have an impact on climate, which is short or medium term, and that"},{"startTime":2972.673,"endTime":2972.966,"body":"can in turn, lead to knock on effects in climate driven, uh, uh, areas of"},{"startTime":2972.966,"endTime":2977.365,"body":"agriculture."},{"startTime":2978.185,"endTime":2982.005,"body":"Uh, and, um, they can lead to long-term psychological effects."},{"startTime":2984.985,"endTime":2992.194,"body":"So to summarize, the geophysical emergencies of the earth suddenly moving earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes,"},{"startTime":2992.194,"endTime":2992.675,"body":"uh, sudden largely unpredictable as to when, although with a fair degree of predictability as"},{"startTime":2992.675,"endTime":3000.365,"body":"to where"},{"startTime":3002.755,"endTime":3005.885,"body":"They can cause a massive loss of life very suddenly."},{"startTime":3006.185,"endTime":3010.427,"body":"So I've given you examples of all three of those, uh, where the numbers of"},{"startTime":3010.427,"endTime":3010.71,"body":"people who died in the event were over a hundred thousand sudden deaths over a"},{"startTime":3010.71,"endTime":3016.085,"body":"very short period of time."},{"startTime":3017.115,"endTime":3022.698,"body":"They can then have an immediate effect, uh, on, uh, infections, nutrition, preventative, and curative"},{"startTime":3022.698,"endTime":3027.165,"body":"services, which can go on for months to years and potentially intergenerationally."},{"startTime":3027.4,"endTime":3028.7,"body":"So you need to plan for this."},{"startTime":3028.985,"endTime":3034.107,"body":"The pro the emergency is not over when the, uh, immediate people, uh, have been"},{"startTime":3034.107,"endTime":3034.449,"body":"rescued or not, and long-term effects on shelter, uh, and uh, on infrastructure and profound"},{"startTime":3034.449,"endTime":3042.645,"body":"impact health impacts as a result of people becoming poorer."},{"startTime":3042.985,"endTime":3046.835,"body":"So these have big impacts, big health impacts, and I think when you understand them,"},{"startTime":3046.835,"endTime":3050.685,"body":"it makes it easier to understand what you need to do to respond to them."},{"startTime":3050.745,"endTime":3054.358,"body":"And in particularly in the case of earthquakes, uh, to make it less likely there'll"},{"startTime":3054.358,"endTime":3056.285,"body":"be future loss of life on this scale."},{"startTime":3056.455,"endTime":3057.165,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":3066.895,"endTime":3067.565,"body":"Thank you, Chris."},{"startTime":3067.565,"endTime":3071.023,"body":"It's really tempting to say, I hope the earth moved for you like it did"},{"startTime":3071.023,"endTime":3071.485,"body":"for ."},{"startTime":3071.985,"endTime":3074.645,"body":"Um, there's a couple of interesting questions."},{"startTime":3074.655,"endTime":3080.042,"body":"First one follows on from me or your last couple of slides, which is, are"},{"startTime":3080.042,"endTime":3080.401,"body":"there any data, uh, on long-term cancer cases following collapse of buildings, for example, like"},{"startTime":3080.401,"endTime":3080.76,"body":"after what happened at nine 11, but you know, some of the massive trauma on"},{"startTime":3080.76,"endTime":3095.845,"body":"these terrible building materials that have propped up what's known about the long-term consequences."},{"startTime":3096.225,"endTime":3100.862,"body":"So in a sense, there's, there's, there's very weak direct data where people can just"},{"startTime":3100.862,"endTime":3103.645,"body":"trace it through from an earthquake, uh, in particular."},{"startTime":3104.305,"endTime":3108.827,"body":"But I think working from first principles, for example, if there's a lot of asbestos"},{"startTime":3108.827,"endTime":3109.129,"body":"used locally, you can predict that mesothelioma, which is an a, a cancer which occurs"},{"startTime":3109.129,"endTime":3116.365,"body":"after that, is going to be at significantly increased risk."},{"startTime":3116.745,"endTime":3119.957,"body":"Uh, and the same will be true for many of the other, um, toxic materials"},{"startTime":3119.957,"endTime":3121.885,"body":"you can get, which people can be exposed to."},{"startTime":3122.305,"endTime":3125.853,"body":"But I think it's important to put in a sense, put them in context in"},{"startTime":3125.853,"endTime":3129.165,"body":"the context of a ma the kind of massive earthquake which we're talking about."},{"startTime":3129.475,"endTime":3133.82,"body":"This will be a very fractional thing, and if you compare it to someone's lifetime"},{"startTime":3133.82,"endTime":3138.165,"body":"cancer risk, it's likely to actually be very small fraction of their lifetime cancer risk."},{"startTime":3138.345,"endTime":3142.325,"body":"So I think that the general question is entirely reasonable, but in relative terms, it's"},{"startTime":3142.325,"endTime":3145.245,"body":"going to be a relatively small part of the risk here."},{"startTime":3145.985,"endTime":3151.835,"body":"The, the sort of public health stroke planning, um, that comes springs to mind after"},{"startTime":3151.835,"endTime":3156.125,"body":"this is you pretty well know roughly where earthquakes can happen."},{"startTime":3157.035,"endTime":3160.41,"body":"Some are more likely to happen in some places than others, and you know where"},{"startTime":3160.41,"endTime":3161.085,"body":"the volcanoes are."},{"startTime":3161.385,"endTime":3166.056,"body":"So if you are in charge, say of the United Nations, where are you gonna"},{"startTime":3166.056,"endTime":3167.925,"body":"put your resources to be ready?"},{"startTime":3168.225,"endTime":3170.485,"body":"And who's gonna finance that and how's it gonna get there?"},{"startTime":3170.845,"endTime":3171.725,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e, that's multiple questions."},{"startTime":3171.875,"endTime":3172.165,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3172.305,"endTime":3176.229,"body":"Um, and I think that exaggerates the, uh, authority of the United Nations to be"},{"startTime":3176.229,"endTime":3178.845,"body":"able to actually make these kind of big, uh, decisions."},{"startTime":3178.905,"endTime":3182.005,"body":"But what would you want, what do we, what do we collectively want to do?"},{"startTime":3182.165,"endTime":3186.351,"body":"I think that the biggest, uh, given that earthquakes are the biggest risk, the first"},{"startTime":3186.351,"endTime":3186.63,"body":"thing you want to do is map out where they're likely and where they're likely,"},{"startTime":3186.63,"endTime":3194.725,"body":"where there is a large population, and then you want to deal with the engineering."},{"startTime":3195.545,"endTime":3199.435,"body":"It, we really should be aiming, in particular for the big public buildings, and I'm"},{"startTime":3199.435,"endTime":3199.695,"body":"taking schools as an example, you know, if the odd cow shed falls down, that's"},{"startTime":3199.695,"endTime":3203.845,"body":"a shame."},{"startTime":3203.905,"endTime":3207.365,"body":"But actually, actually what you really need to do is strengthen those buildings."},{"startTime":3207.365,"endTime":3208.285,"body":"We know how to do it."},{"startTime":3208.505,"endTime":3213.713,"body":"If you look at what happens during quite significant earthquakes in Japan, there really is"},{"startTime":3213.713,"endTime":3214.06,"body":"minimal damage because they've been engineered not to damage themselves, be damaged themselves, and to"},{"startTime":3214.06,"endTime":3221.005,"body":"damage humans, uh, when they occur."},{"startTime":3221.005,"endTime":3222.245,"body":"So I think that would be the first thing."},{"startTime":3222.745,"endTime":3227.341,"body":"The second thing is, um, we need to strengthen the infrastructure in these, these kind"},{"startTime":3227.341,"endTime":3230.405,"body":"of areas so that it doesn't predictably all get destroyed."},{"startTime":3230.625,"endTime":3235.28,"body":"And you have several different routes in for things like water in particular, uh, power"},{"startTime":3235.28,"endTime":3239.005,"body":"to a lesser extent, and to have standby, um, uh, resources elsewhere."},{"startTime":3239.585,"endTime":3243.825,"body":"And in the case of tsunamis, uh, we need to have what we now have"},{"startTime":3243.825,"endTime":3245.805,"body":"much better, which is early warning systems."},{"startTime":3245.805,"endTime":3249.2,"body":"They're not gonna help the people in the immediate vicinity of the tsunami, but they"},{"startTime":3249.2,"endTime":3249.426,"body":"should be able to give people warning who are an hour, two hours away from"},{"startTime":3249.426,"endTime":3255.765,"body":"a wave to get onto high land, uh, and get away from the risks."},{"startTime":3255.825,"endTime":3257.845,"body":"So I think those are all technical answers."},{"startTime":3258.545,"endTime":3263.195,"body":"Of course, the big geopolitical answer is that the biggest damage tends to occur in"},{"startTime":3263.195,"endTime":3264.125,"body":"areas of poverty."},{"startTime":3264.825,"endTime":3269.438,"body":"So wealthy nations are not immune from these at all, but it is gonna be"},{"startTime":3269.438,"endTime":3269.746,"body":"easier for them both to engineer in, engineer out the risk and to recover from"},{"startTime":3269.746,"endTime":3276.205,"body":"the, uh, hit, uh, when it occurs."},{"startTime":3276.205,"endTime":3277.885,"body":"So that's a sort of longer term development aim."},{"startTime":3278.475,"endTime":3281.845,"body":"There's a very beautiful support dog sitting at the front down here."},{"startTime":3282.105,"endTime":3288.123,"body":"And a good question, can animals predict the movement of the earth's crust or the"},{"startTime":3288.123,"endTime":3288.525,"body":"deluxe?"},{"startTime":3288.635,"endTime":3294.233,"body":"There's a lot of, uh, rather anecdotal, but probably quite convincing anecdotal, uh, information that"},{"startTime":3294.233,"endTime":3299.085,"body":"animals, uh, start responding in a rational way in advance of things happening."},{"startTime":3299.105,"endTime":3303.233,"body":"So probably the answer is yes, but, uh, seeing animals moving around very quickly, I"},{"startTime":3303.233,"endTime":3304.885,"body":"think doesn't mean an earthquake's coming."},{"startTime":3304.985,"endTime":3307.853,"body":"So I think this is something that I would, I would be very cautious about"},{"startTime":3307.853,"endTime":3308.045,"body":"that."},{"startTime":3308.185,"endTime":3309.885,"body":"Uh, um, drawing that conclusion,"},{"startTime":3310.175,"endTime":3311.645,"body":"Let's take some questions from the floor."},{"startTime":3311.905,"endTime":3312.125,"body":"Uh,"},{"startTime":3312.315,"endTime":3318.459,"body":"What I want to ask you is, which cave first, the tectonic plates, earthquakes or"},{"startTime":3318.459,"endTime":3322.965,"body":"the continental drift, or is there any connection between the two?"},{"startTime":3323.835,"endTime":3328.662,"body":"Well, I think most people try and understand earthquakes in the context of tectonic plates"},{"startTime":3328.662,"endTime":3332.525,"body":"moving around, which they've done for the inde pretty well indefinite past."},{"startTime":3332.755,"endTime":3336.525,"body":"It's not quite to the indefinite past and will do for the rest of time."},{"startTime":3337.265,"endTime":3341.995,"body":"Uh, of course, the configuration of the earth and what the earth looks like in"},{"startTime":3341.995,"endTime":3346.725,"body":"terms of its continents has shifted hugely over time, but much less over human time."},{"startTime":3347.225,"endTime":3351.071,"body":"So in, in the times humans have been around, uh, it's, it's looks more like"},{"startTime":3351.071,"endTime":3354.405,"body":"where we are at the moment, but continents are moving around very slowly."},{"startTime":3354.905,"endTime":3360.186,"body":"Uh, but the tectonic plates, you know, they, they're often moving a few millimeters to"},{"startTime":3360.186,"endTime":3360.538,"body":"centimeters a year, but if that builds up over decades or centuries, you're talking about"},{"startTime":3360.538,"endTime":3368.285,"body":"very, very strong forces over very large distances."},{"startTime":3368.285,"endTime":3373.875,"body":"Some of the Himalayan, uh, tectonic plates have been moving very gradually for over 300"},{"startTime":3373.875,"endTime":3376.485,"body":"years and have not had an earthquake."},{"startTime":3376.785,"endTime":3380.917,"body":"Sooner or later, that energy will have to be released, for example, and that will"},{"startTime":3380.917,"endTime":3381.192,"body":"predictably lead to a very significant earthquake, hopefully not one with a large loss of"},{"startTime":3381.192,"endTime":3385.325,"body":"life."},{"startTime":3385.625,"endTime":3385.845,"body":"So"},{"startTime":3385.845,"endTime":3386.725,"body":"There is ion,"},{"startTime":3387.425,"endTime":3389.285,"body":"Uh, yes, at one level, yes."},{"startTime":3389.585,"endTime":3396.421,"body":"The significance of transverse or longitudinal waves in earthquakes, is there much difference in the"},{"startTime":3396.421,"endTime":3398.245,"body":"intensity of the effect?"},{"startTime":3398.915,"endTime":3403.613,"body":"Well, I think the, the, the strength of them, as you say, sense the direction"},{"startTime":3403.613,"endTime":3403.927,"body":"of them and the amplitude of them in terms of how big or small, how"},{"startTime":3403.927,"endTime":3411.445,"body":"are they, are they shaking very fast or slightly longer?"},{"startTime":3411.495,"endTime":3416.121,"body":"Waves will have big implications as to which buildings get knocked down, uh, uh, in,"},{"startTime":3416.121,"endTime":3416.43,"body":"uh, cat Mandu for example, many of the taller buildings got knocked down because of"},{"startTime":3416.43,"endTime":3423.525,"body":"the particular amplitude that you had in that earthquake."},{"startTime":3423.585,"endTime":3427.241,"body":"Had it been a different amplitude, it might have been, uh, some other, uh, lower"},{"startTime":3427.241,"endTime":3427.485,"body":"buildings."},{"startTime":3427.485,"endTime":3431.045,"body":"So it does have implications, uh, but each earthquake is different."},{"startTime":3431.065,"endTime":3431.965,"body":"And in that respect,"},{"startTime":3432.785,"endTime":3437.25,"body":"You mentioned, um, about maternity care a couple of times in your, uh, secondary health"},{"startTime":3437.25,"endTime":3437.548,"body":"impacts, and I wondered if you had any, any views or commentary on other kind"},{"startTime":3437.548,"endTime":3445.885,"body":"of differential impacts to men, women, children, in any of the health, uh, consequences."},{"startTime":3447.265,"endTime":3451.952,"body":"So there are, there are, I mean, this will depend in partly on societal things,"},{"startTime":3451.952,"endTime":3454.765,"body":"and I think every society's slightly different on this."},{"startTime":3454.935,"endTime":3459.725,"body":"There are some predictable ones though, and I think, uh, maternity services is obviously one."},{"startTime":3460.265,"endTime":3464.573,"body":"Uh, if all the hospitals are knocked down, if all the health services stop and,"},{"startTime":3464.573,"endTime":3464.86,"body":"you know, people, when people have, uh, a baby is not something which can be,"},{"startTime":3464.86,"endTime":3470.605,"body":"you know, changed, that's gonna happen."},{"startTime":3471.185,"endTime":3475.797,"body":"Uh, the other one that's very predictable is children, because if they're at school and"},{"startTime":3475.797,"endTime":3478.565,"body":"the schools fall down, that has an enormous implication."},{"startTime":3479.025,"endTime":3482.845,"body":"So, uh, age, age and, uh, gender can both have significant effects."},{"startTime":3483.105,"endTime":3486.313,"body":"It also can have effects, for example, if one gen one, uh, gender is more"},{"startTime":3486.313,"endTime":3486.527,"body":"likely to be in the home and the other out in the field, that also"},{"startTime":3486.527,"endTime":3490.805,"body":"can have effects and so on."},{"startTime":3490.945,"endTime":3495.34,"body":"But these are in a sense, social constructs, whereas the age and the maternity ones,"},{"startTime":3495.34,"endTime":3496.805,"body":"I think will be universal."},{"startTime":3498.425,"endTime":3504.32,"body":"Are there, um, mechanisms within the UK for sending out teams in an organized way"},{"startTime":3504.32,"endTime":3506.285,"body":"to places where this happen?"},{"startTime":3506.385,"endTime":3510.325,"body":"We see groups of cavers and so on, rushing out people of trapped in caves."},{"startTime":3510.325,"endTime":3510.845,"body":"How does it work?"},{"startTime":3511.635,"endTime":3516.441,"body":"Yeah, so most, most, um, well very num obviously the, the greatest expertise in earthquakes"},{"startTime":3516.441,"endTime":3519.325,"body":"tends to be in countries which are earthquake prone."},{"startTime":3519.325,"endTime":3521.405,"body":"They tend to have a lot of local capacity."},{"startTime":3522.065,"endTime":3527.08,"body":"Um, but many countries, including the UK have people who have, uh, learned a lot"},{"startTime":3527.08,"endTime":3527.415,"body":"of skills about earthquakes and, uh, who will fly into an earthquake zone, particularly in"},{"startTime":3527.415,"endTime":3527.749,"body":"the initial period when actually you need this highly technical either kit or for example,"},{"startTime":3527.749,"endTime":3541.125,"body":"sniffer dogs or whatever, bring them in for a period of time."},{"startTime":3541.825,"endTime":3546.245,"body":"You are not going to find many people surviving under rub much outside a week."},{"startTime":3546.785,"endTime":3550.445,"body":"So this kind of effect is a relatively early effect."},{"startTime":3550.865,"endTime":3555.356,"body":"The longer term effects tend to be much more generic health ones, uh, or the"},{"startTime":3555.356,"endTime":3555.656,"body":"management of crush injuries and management of kidney failure in particular is something many low"},{"startTime":3555.656,"endTime":3561.645,"body":"income countries would have difficulty with."},{"startTime":3561.665,"endTime":3564.525,"body":"And, uh, you need to bring that capacity in to help them."},{"startTime":3567.315,"endTime":3569.205,"body":"Well, I think you've stunned them into silence."},{"startTime":3569.295,"endTime":3573.325,"body":"Chris, professor Chris Wii, thank you very much for talking to us."}]}