{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":5.085,"endTime":9.593,"body":"I would like to start by putting ourselves in the shoes of an immigrant, leaving"},{"startTime":9.593,"endTime":14.102,"body":"Italy just before the first World War, pondering where to go, where to settle in"},{"startTime":14.102,"endTime":15.605,"body":"search of a new life."},{"startTime":16.945,"endTime":22.27,"body":"The choice of our immigrant would be to catch a steamship, perhaps to New York"},{"startTime":22.27,"endTime":24.045,"body":"or possibly to Bueno areas."},{"startTime":26.445,"endTime":30.574,"body":"The Gresham College lecture that you're listening to right now is giving you knowledge and"},{"startTime":30.574,"endTime":34.704,"body":"insight from one of the world's leading academic experts, making it takes a lot of"},{"startTime":34.704,"endTime":38.834,"body":"time, but because we want to encourage a love of learning, we think it's well"},{"startTime":38.834,"endTime":39.385,"body":"worth it."},{"startTime":40.365,"endTime":43.505,"body":"We never make you pay for lectures, although donations are needed."},{"startTime":44.005,"endTime":45.345,"body":"All we ask in return is this."},{"startTime":45.895,"endTime":48.185,"body":"Send a link to this lecture to someone you think would benefit."},{"startTime":48.565,"endTime":52.248,"body":"And if you haven't already, click the follow or subscribe button from wherever you are"},{"startTime":52.248,"endTime":52.985,"body":"listening right now."},{"startTime":54.045,"endTime":55.745,"body":"Now, let's get back to the lecture"},{"startTime":58.765,"endTime":64.985,"body":"In 1910, it would be a tough choice about which destination to, to choose."},{"startTime":66.055,"endTime":71.522,"body":"Argentina at that point was one of the wealthiest countries in the world, but the"},{"startTime":71.522,"endTime":76.625,"body":"choice made then would have great consequence for the migrants descendants a century later."},{"startTime":78.685,"endTime":83.712,"body":"Let me start off by looking at the difference between income levels in the two"},{"startTime":83.712,"endTime":88.739,"body":"countries and with other settle of economies that exported primary products like wheat, such as"},{"startTime":88.739,"endTime":89.745,"body":"such as Canada."},{"startTime":90.685,"endTime":95.851,"body":"And you see from this graph that Argentina, the blue line starts off more or"},{"startTime":95.851,"endTime":99.985,"body":"less on a par there with Canada bit below the United States."},{"startTime":100.325,"endTime":107.065,"body":"But then look at the huge divergence, which starts to take place in the interwar"},{"startTime":107.065,"endTime":113.806,"body":"period, Argentina, now, along with other Latin American countries, lagging far behind in terms of"},{"startTime":113.806,"endTime":114.705,"body":"income ahead."},{"startTime":117.285,"endTime":125.073,"body":"So in 1929, just before the Great Depression, Argentina was still a member of that"},{"startTime":125.073,"endTime":132.861,"body":"group of rich countries from 1960s, as you should see on that graph, it would've"},{"startTime":132.861,"endTime":140.649,"body":"been better for our migrants grandchildren to have stayed in Italy as a percentage of"},{"startTime":140.649,"endTime":148.438,"body":"income levels of rich countries in the OECD Argentina fell from about 84% of the"},{"startTime":148.438,"endTime":156.226,"body":"average level of those rich countries in 1950 to 65% in 1973, and only 43%"},{"startTime":156.226,"endTime":157.265,"body":"in 1987."},{"startTime":158.325,"endTime":164.108,"body":"By the early years of this century, income was only about 40% of the level"},{"startTime":164.108,"endTime":165.265,"body":"of Western Europe."},{"startTime":165.335,"endTime":168.985,"body":"Whereas as you saw in 1910, it was on a par."},{"startTime":170.725,"endTime":174.465,"body":"So what went wrong is what I want to ask today."},{"startTime":175.815,"endTime":183.836,"body":"This is what is called by economists, historians, the Argentine paradox, how to explain a"},{"startTime":183.836,"endTime":187.045,"body":"60% relative drop in income levels."},{"startTime":188.185,"endTime":193.506,"body":"And as this graph shows, it was not just Argentina, Latin America as a whole"},{"startTime":193.506,"endTime":194.925,"body":"did not do well."},{"startTime":195.505,"endTime":200.821,"body":"But you see that Chile, which I'll be coming on to at the end of"},{"startTime":200.821,"endTime":204.365,"body":"my lecture, uh, did start to improve in the 1970s."},{"startTime":205.185,"endTime":210.805,"body":"So we will need to be asking why did Chile manage to pull ahead somewhat"},{"startTime":213.385,"endTime":217.085,"body":"To understand that more recent trajectory of Argentina?"},{"startTime":217.785,"endTime":222.205,"body":"We should start through an understanding of his economy before the First World War."},{"startTime":222.425,"endTime":227.39,"body":"I'm, I'm a historian, so I like to start with the historic roots of, uh,"},{"startTime":227.39,"endTime":232.356,"body":"the, the patterns which I'm looking at, because it was the pattern set before the"},{"startTime":232.356,"endTime":235.005,"body":"First World War, which led to various problems."},{"startTime":236.305,"endTime":241.691,"body":"It went to, it led to social and political problems that limited the ability of"},{"startTime":241.691,"endTime":244.205,"body":"Argentina to sustain growth and high income."},{"startTime":245.545,"endTime":252.28,"body":"And it led to a strategy of economic nationalism, particularly under Peron, which was based"},{"startTime":252.28,"endTime":259.016,"body":"upon import substituting industrialization, an attempt to develop local industries that would replace imports of"},{"startTime":259.016,"endTime":264.405,"body":"manufacturers from Europe and from the United States to go for self-sufficiency."},{"startTime":267.585,"endTime":273.227,"body":"So let me start then by looking at Argentina from its independence in the 1820s"},{"startTime":273.227,"endTime":277.365,"body":"through to the beginning of the Great Depression in the 1920s."},{"startTime":278.905,"endTime":285.13,"body":"So, Argentina secured independence from Spain in 1810, but that was followed by a long"},{"startTime":285.13,"endTime":287.205,"body":"period of turmoil and warfare."},{"startTime":288.545,"endTime":292.085,"body":"The old Spanish vice royalty broke up into different states."},{"startTime":292.595,"endTime":296.685,"body":"They com had competing claims for land I in the, in the area."},{"startTime":298.505,"endTime":305.15,"body":"And that was linked with expansion from Buenos Air, the area around Buenos Aires, into"},{"startTime":305.15,"endTime":307.365,"body":"the Pampas and into Patagonia."},{"startTime":308.425,"endTime":315.219,"body":"So this rather fanciful image, um, is showing the war of the desert of 1833"},{"startTime":315.219,"endTime":316.125,"body":"to four."},{"startTime":316.665,"endTime":323.37,"body":"Um, the attempt to drive out the indigenous people and the conquest of the desert"},{"startTime":323.37,"endTime":325.605,"body":"of the 1870s and 1880s."},{"startTime":326.705,"endTime":330.725,"body":"It involved the defeat, perhaps the genocide of indigenous people."},{"startTime":331.705,"endTime":334.725,"body":"It also involved the suppression of the gauchos."},{"startTime":335.495,"endTime":341.512,"body":"These were people very often of, of mixed descents of Indian mothers, Spanish fathers who"},{"startTime":341.512,"endTime":345.925,"body":"roamed the Pampers living off feral wild horses, cattle and game."},{"startTime":347.035,"endTime":350.005,"body":"They fought against the Spanish in the wars of Independence."},{"startTime":350.005,"endTime":353.485,"body":"They fought in the Spanish War in the desert war."},{"startTime":354.185,"endTime":359.182,"body":"But as the cattle ranches started to settle, settle and to put barbed wire around"},{"startTime":359.182,"endTime":364.18,"body":"the, around the pampa, uh, they were seen now as being wild and unc civilized,"},{"startTime":364.18,"endTime":369.178,"body":"um, and had to be forced to work on the ranches, uh, to become settled,"},{"startTime":369.178,"endTime":369.845,"body":"uh, peons."},{"startTime":370.785,"endTime":372.805,"body":"So it's a period of, of, of instability."},{"startTime":373.745,"endTime":379.895,"body":"And a more settled political system emerged with the election of Julia Rocker as president"},{"startTime":379.895,"endTime":386.045,"body":"in 1880, had even made a dominant figure for the next 20 or 30 years."},{"startTime":387.385,"endTime":393.205,"body":"He had been a leading general in the conquest of the desert, and he and"},{"startTime":393.205,"endTime":397.085,"body":"the other, so-called Men of 1880, continue to be powerful."},{"startTime":397.705,"endTime":404.53,"body":"And the party that he led and, uh, founded, continued to dominate right up to"},{"startTime":404.53,"endTime":406.805,"body":"1916, the Partido autonomist nationalist."},{"startTime":408.025,"endTime":415.965,"body":"So they retained power despite quite a wide male franchise by ballot, rigging, intimidation."},{"startTime":416.625,"endTime":420.605,"body":"And if all else failed, the president could impose his own own wishes."},{"startTime":420.745,"endTime":423.965,"body":"And of course, he had the army at his disposal."},{"startTime":425.585,"endTime":432.045,"body":"So what we have here is a political system, which is based upon an oligarchic."},{"startTime":432.555,"endTime":439.68,"body":"Autocracy is unlike other settler societies such as Canada and Australia, they're growing the same"},{"startTime":439.68,"endTime":446.805,"body":"sort of crops to same markets, but they were not militarized in the same way."},{"startTime":446.805,"endTime":451.085,"body":"They didn't have civil war, didn't have conflicts with the, with the neighbors."},{"startTime":452.675,"endTime":458.027,"body":"They also committed genocide or suppression of indigenous people, but not through the same sort"},{"startTime":458.027,"endTime":460.525,"body":"of military process that I outlined there."},{"startTime":462.145,"endTime":468.618,"body":"Two Australian historians stressed that there was a big contrast between what they call the"},{"startTime":468.618,"endTime":473.365,"body":"stable, flexible government of Australia and the bad government of Argentina."},{"startTime":473.985,"endTime":478.573,"body":"And they see that going back to this period of the late 19th century as"},{"startTime":478.573,"endTime":482.245,"body":"the key to the different trajectory, uh, which we still see today."},{"startTime":484.425,"endTime":491.713,"body":"The government of Argentina encouraged European migrants to replace what were viewed as those uncivilized"},{"startTime":491.713,"endTime":492.685,"body":"wild gocho."},{"startTime":494.195,"endTime":500.402,"body":"That migration into Argentina started on a large scale in the 1870s, attracted by higher"},{"startTime":500.402,"endTime":502.885,"body":"wages than in, than in Europe."},{"startTime":504.345,"endTime":511.701,"body":"By 1914, 40% of the population of Argentina was foreign born, and many of them"},{"startTime":511.701,"endTime":516.605,"body":"were Italian who were distinct from the older Spanish migrants."},{"startTime":517.155,"endTime":523.896,"body":"Many of the Italians were urbanized, and many of them, this is an important point"},{"startTime":523.896,"endTime":530.637,"body":"as ied in the lecture, they were had sympathies with socialism and, um, anarchism, unlike"},{"startTime":530.637,"endTime":537.379,"body":"Canada and Australia, where most of the migrants were predominantly from the uk, you have"},{"startTime":537.379,"endTime":540.525,"body":"this more if like mixed ethnic background."},{"startTime":540.945,"endTime":544.965,"body":"Now, some historians say that that is, again, a crucial difference."},{"startTime":545.105,"endTime":546.605,"body":"I'm a little bit wary about these."},{"startTime":546.825,"endTime":553.854,"body":"So it's like ethnic explanations, but at least, um, some historians, I quote say, a"},{"startTime":553.854,"endTime":560.884,"body":"crucial difference with the political tradition and the origins of the immigrant population coming from"},{"startTime":560.884,"endTime":564.165,"body":"Britain compared with Southern Europeans in Argentina."},{"startTime":564.175,"endTime":567.986,"body":"There seems to be to be a little bit of, uh, if like Anglos second"},{"startTime":567.986,"endTime":569.765,"body":"and superiority about that, that that argument."},{"startTime":569.865,"endTime":574.515,"body":"And I'm gonna be put forward, uh, a somewhat different, uh, take on on why"},{"startTime":574.515,"endTime":575.445,"body":"there were differences."},{"startTime":577.425,"endTime":583.975,"body":"One of the major differences, in fact, was the highly reliance upon foreign capital above"},{"startTime":583.975,"endTime":590.526,"body":"all from Britain to build railways, to open up the Pampers, to build ports and"},{"startTime":590.526,"endTime":597.076,"body":"meat packing stations and cold stores, and to provide utilities such as the gas and"},{"startTime":597.076,"endTime":603.627,"body":"Tramways here in Bueno Air, uh, which became a major world city with this branch"},{"startTime":603.627,"endTime":610.177,"body":"of Howard's there and the fine sort of Parisian style, uh, boulevards at Grand Opera"},{"startTime":610.177,"endTime":616.728,"body":"House, uh, which was near on a par with, uh, with Milan Lascala and so"},{"startTime":616.728,"endTime":617.165,"body":"on."},{"startTime":619.225,"endTime":622.165,"body":"So this massive foreign investment from, from Britain."},{"startTime":622.985,"endTime":628.715,"body":"And the interest, um, on that, the shares on those bonds, of course was, was,"},{"startTime":628.715,"endTime":634.445,"body":"uh, being passed back to Britain and the return being guaranteed by the Argentinian state."},{"startTime":635.585,"endTime":642.697,"body":"The major banks in Argentina were also British owned, and their roles banks was to"},{"startTime":642.697,"endTime":646.965,"body":"service the service the production of commodities for export."},{"startTime":648.275,"endTime":654.314,"body":"Argentina then was not formally part of the British Empire, but it was part of"},{"startTime":654.314,"endTime":655.925,"body":"the informal British empire."},{"startTime":658.315,"endTime":664.725,"body":"British overseas capital calls, uh, for Argentina were really, uh, extensive."},{"startTime":665.305,"endTime":670.162,"body":"Uh, you can see, uh, there, where it was going into railways, going to the"},{"startTime":670.162,"endTime":673.725,"body":"government, to the utilities I mentioned, but above all building railways."},{"startTime":674.505,"endTime":681.692,"body":"And you see that the Argentina was the third most important destination after the United"},{"startTime":681.692,"endTime":686.005,"body":"States and, and, uh, Canada, uh, head of Australia."},{"startTime":687.025,"endTime":692.845,"body":"So we have this, uh, massive amount then of foreign capital, uh, going into Argentina."},{"startTime":694.345,"endTime":701.347,"body":"So there's a big difference from other settler economies in Argentina, heavy alliance upon foreign"},{"startTime":701.347,"endTime":708.349,"body":"capital, but very low level of domestic saving, domestic savings rate was only about, was"},{"startTime":708.349,"endTime":715.351,"body":"about 10% lower in Argentina than in Australia and Canada, between nineteen hundred and nineteen"},{"startTime":715.351,"endTime":716.285,"body":"twenty nine."},{"startTime":716.865,"endTime":723.33,"body":"So low domestic, saving heavy reliance upon capital from outside, reliance upon capital outside means"},{"startTime":723.33,"endTime":725.485,"body":"that that is more expensive."},{"startTime":725.545,"endTime":727.365,"body":"The cost of capital were higher."},{"startTime":729.145,"endTime":735.664,"body":"The payment of interest on the capital payment of dividends on that foreign capital took"},{"startTime":735.664,"endTime":740.445,"body":"up a very large proportion of the government revenue of Argentina."},{"startTime":742.345,"endTime":748.115,"body":"And also, we should note that politics were different between Argentina and Australia in this,"},{"startTime":748.115,"endTime":748.885,"body":"this respect."},{"startTime":750.745,"endTime":757.311,"body":"In the case of Australia, about two thirds of all the capital went to the"},{"startTime":757.311,"endTime":762.565,"body":"government of Australia, the provincial or state governments, and the federal government."},{"startTime":763.145,"endTime":765.925,"body":"So that loans were in the hands of representative bodies."},{"startTime":768.665,"endTime":775.958,"body":"So it was democratic controlled, and usually the firms of the utilities were operated by"},{"startTime":775.958,"endTime":776.445,"body":"Australians."},{"startTime":777.555,"endTime":782.896,"body":"That was not the case in Argentina, where the ownership was very often outside here"},{"startTime":782.896,"endTime":783.965,"body":"in, in London."},{"startTime":785.385,"endTime":790.453,"body":"So although in Australia in the 1920s, thirties, there was resentment at the payment of"},{"startTime":790.453,"endTime":791.805,"body":"interest on British loans."},{"startTime":792.465,"endTime":797.365,"body":"It was nothing like the scale, uh, that was found in Argentina."},{"startTime":799.945,"endTime":806.333,"body":"So the results of this, uh, economic and political system was an alliance between British"},{"startTime":806.333,"endTime":811.445,"body":"capital based here, mainly in London, and owners of the largest states."},{"startTime":811.585,"endTime":812.245,"body":"The Sania."},{"startTime":812.555,"endTime":818.808,"body":"Give us an example of one which flourished in the late 19th and early 20th"},{"startTime":818.808,"endTime":824.645,"body":"century on the basis of an export economy based upon wool, beef and wheat."},{"startTime":825.355,"endTime":831.005,"body":"Well, if you are rich enough and so minded, you can now go and have"},{"startTime":831.005,"endTime":836.655,"body":"a wonderful holiday, uh, there living the life of, uh, of a rancher, having a"},{"startTime":836.655,"endTime":840.045,"body":"luxurious outdoor holiday, horseback playing, golf, shooting, uh, whatever."},{"startTime":840.305,"endTime":841.725,"body":"Uh, you, you, you fancy."},{"startTime":845.255,"endTime":849.885,"body":"These estancia emerge, uh, in the course of the 19th century."},{"startTime":850.785,"endTime":856.885,"body":"In the early 19th century, Catlan sheep wrote roaming over large tracks of unfenced land."},{"startTime":857.785,"endTime":861.685,"body":"The ranches often used slaves until about 1850."},{"startTime":862.775,"endTime":867.445,"body":"There were large number of sheep from, uh, which were providing wool to Britain."},{"startTime":867.545,"endTime":870.765,"body":"That's what one of the major crops or commodities was."},{"startTime":870.765,"endTime":878.298,"body":"Initially before the development of refrigeration, cattle were used, mainly supply hides for leather going"},{"startTime":878.298,"endTime":885.831,"body":"to places in London, like, like bourbon sea, and the carcasses of sheep and cattle"},{"startTime":885.831,"endTime":888.845,"body":"were boiled down to produce tallow."},{"startTime":890.345,"endTime":894.885,"body":"And there you see, uh, the, the makeup of the exports for Argentina."},{"startTime":895.745,"endTime":903.085,"body":"So in 1854, about a third of the exports were hides about 8% in wool."},{"startTime":903.545,"endTime":908.565,"body":"And another third or so in tallow, uh, for reusing candles, grease."},{"startTime":908.585,"endTime":914.506,"body":"And so, which is used in industry, and that was still, those were still the"},{"startTime":914.506,"endTime":916.085,"body":"dominant trades in 1870."},{"startTime":917.545,"endTime":923.816,"body":"But then from about 1870, with say, the fencing in of the Pampers, uh, the"},{"startTime":923.816,"endTime":930.088,"body":"nature of the export market started to change the export of better quality meat and"},{"startTime":930.088,"endTime":930.925,"body":"also wheat."},{"startTime":932.865,"endTime":934.565,"body":"So how did this economy work?"},{"startTime":935.035,"endTime":938.005,"body":"This cattle economy, which has started become so dominant."},{"startTime":939.155,"endTime":944.163,"body":"Well, cattle were bred on the pampers on pasture, which is being improved from this,"},{"startTime":944.163,"endTime":945.165,"body":"its native quality."},{"startTime":946.815,"endTime":951.643,"body":"Those cattle were then sent to the coastal districts to be fattened up on better"},{"startTime":951.643,"endTime":951.965,"body":"pasture."},{"startTime":953.305,"endTime":959.347,"body":"And that meat trade was initially in what was called jerked beef, yes, air cured"},{"startTime":959.347,"endTime":965.39,"body":"and salted, which is largely sold up into, uh, the Caribbean and Brazil, uh, to"},{"startTime":965.39,"endTime":967.405,"body":"be used on slave plantations."},{"startTime":967.865,"endTime":972.365,"body":"So it is, um, a, a lower quality, uh, meat."},{"startTime":972.905,"endTime":978.755,"body":"But then you see the emergence of frozen beef coming in, um, massive expansion from"},{"startTime":978.755,"endTime":984.605,"body":"1894 up to the first World war and the beginning of chilled beef, even, uh,"},{"startTime":984.605,"endTime":987.725,"body":"if a higher quality rather than, than frozen."},{"startTime":989.985,"endTime":997.365,"body":"So this development, um, is being controlled by, uh, largely British firms."},{"startTime":998.265,"endTime":1000.365,"body":"Uh, there are huge enterprises."},{"startTime":1000.585,"endTime":1008.829,"body":"Uh, the, the, the ranches, uh, one hacienda, uh, the Sanje Cantu Hacienda had a"},{"startTime":1008.829,"endTime":1014.325,"body":"hundred thousand cattle and 10,000 horses on 244 square miles."},{"startTime":1015.945,"endTime":1022.585,"body":"So these are massive, uh, uh, ranches, but they're dominated by the cold store firms"},{"startTime":1022.585,"endTime":1025.685,"body":"that are based, uh, on the coast."},{"startTime":1026.425,"endTime":1033.107,"body":"And those cold store firms and fri uh, refrigerating plants and refrigerated ships were controlled"},{"startTime":1033.107,"endTime":1034.444,"body":"by fn interests."},{"startTime":1034.605,"endTime":1035.405,"body":"A very few firms."},{"startTime":1036.145,"endTime":1042.649,"body":"So unlike in, in Canada, Australia, where it was very often the ranchers controlled the"},{"startTime":1042.649,"endTime":1049.154,"body":"trade, they would supply their cattle to the slaughterhouse and the meat packers, in this"},{"startTime":1049.154,"endTime":1053.925,"body":"case, it's the meat packers dominate the, um, internal, uh, trade."},{"startTime":1055.345,"endTime":1062.368,"body":"And most of those, um, meat packers, refrigeration plants were owned by, as you see"},{"startTime":1062.368,"endTime":1069.392,"body":"here, uh, the Anglo company, uh, this is the Vestis, uh, who own some of"},{"startTime":1069.392,"endTime":1076.416,"body":"you of a certain age like me, can remember Hurst butcher shops on the high"},{"startTime":1076.416,"endTime":1076.885,"body":"streets."},{"startTime":1077.595,"endTime":1083.11,"body":"They owned these big meat p packing plants, slaughterhouse cold storage in in Bueno Aires"},{"startTime":1083.11,"endTime":1085.685,"body":"in London, just up the road here."},{"startTime":1085.905,"endTime":1087.685,"body":"Uh, they had one in Smithfield."},{"startTime":1087.915,"endTime":1091.885,"body":"They own the blue star refrigerated, um, ships."},{"startTime":1092.265,"endTime":1097.233,"body":"Uh, it's one of the massive companies, one of the richest families, uh, still in"},{"startTime":1097.233,"endTime":1097.565,"body":"Britain."},{"startTime":1098.825,"endTime":1103.553,"body":"Uh, William Vesti, uh, went out, first of all to Chicago, sent by his father,"},{"startTime":1103.553,"endTime":1105.445,"body":"who was a Liverpool produce merchant."},{"startTime":1106.225,"endTime":1113.031,"body":"Uh, he went to, uh, uh, Chicago in 1876, and then moved to Argentina in"},{"startTime":1113.031,"endTime":1113.485,"body":"1890."},{"startTime":1114.505,"endTime":1120.951,"body":"He opened his first cold store in Liverpool in 1890, uh, set up Union Cold"},{"startTime":1120.951,"endTime":1127.397,"body":"Store, the Blue Star line, and a chain of 2,635 butcher shops, as well as,"},{"startTime":1127.397,"endTime":1132.125,"body":"uh, some cattle stations, uh, himself that he, that he owned."},{"startTime":1133.345,"endTime":1138.845,"body":"So this system created an alliance of breeders, ERs, railways, meat packers."},{"startTime":1138.865,"endTime":1144.885,"body":"It was a narrow oligarchy of large landowners who dominated the government."},{"startTime":1146.265,"endTime":1152.82,"body":"Unlike the small farmers in other settler societies, they worked with British capital in a"},{"startTime":1152.82,"endTime":1155.005,"body":"common interest in expanding exports."},{"startTime":1156.545,"endTime":1160.939,"body":"At the end of the 19th century, there was also a growth in weak production"},{"startTime":1160.939,"endTime":1161.525,"body":"for export."},{"startTime":1162.585,"endTime":1168.965,"body":"The acreage of wheat grew by tenfold between 1890 and 1914."},{"startTime":1169.705,"endTime":1176.645,"body":"But again, this wheat farming was unlike, uh, the pattern found in Australia and Canada."},{"startTime":1179.025,"endTime":1184.405,"body":"In Argentina, there were not very many small family owned and farm properties."},{"startTime":1185.505,"endTime":1191.317,"body":"The farmers were predominantly tenants, and the land was held by the large owners who"},{"startTime":1191.317,"endTime":1194.805,"body":"could turn it over at some point to cattle."},{"startTime":1195.105,"endTime":1200.045,"body":"It was a flexible system, which allowed them to switch easily between wheat and cattle."},{"startTime":1201.105,"endTime":1205.388,"body":"The tenants, many of whom were Italian, would only hold the property for three years"},{"startTime":1205.388,"endTime":1206.245,"body":"at a time."},{"startTime":1207.035,"endTime":1212.186,"body":"They would improve the property, improve the, the land, and then the landowners could take"},{"startTime":1212.186,"endTime":1215.965,"body":"it back without compensation for the improvements which were being made."},{"startTime":1217.065,"endTime":1220.565,"body":"So the Argentinian tenant farmers were more or less nomadic."},{"startTime":1220.995,"endTime":1223.605,"body":"They didn't settle down in, in communities."},{"startTime":1223.875,"endTime":1227.525,"body":"They lived on a temporary basis in, in sort of shacks."},{"startTime":1229.675,"endTime":1233.525,"body":"They didn't have a very powerful community life."},{"startTime":1234.395,"endTime":1240.403,"body":"They didn't have such democratic politics if the large landowners who dominated and had enormous"},{"startTime":1240.403,"endTime":1241.205,"body":"political power."},{"startTime":1242.265,"endTime":1248.513,"body":"And that reflected the land policy that was adopted by the government in Buenos Aires,"},{"startTime":1248.513,"endTime":1254.761,"body":"or, or rather, in Buenos Aires province and other provinces, because it was a provincial"},{"startTime":1254.761,"endTime":1261.009,"body":"matter to decide how land was distributed, got the federal government, unlike in, uh, Canada"},{"startTime":1261.009,"endTime":1263.925,"body":"and Australia, where the federal government decided."},{"startTime":1265.265,"endTime":1271.096,"body":"So in some provinces, like Santa Fe, the provincial government did try to support small"},{"startTime":1271.096,"endTime":1271.485,"body":"farmers."},{"startTime":1272.305,"endTime":1276.485,"body":"But the major large provinces, the province of Es Aires did not."},{"startTime":1277.395,"endTime":1282.616,"body":"They ensured that most land was held by larger states with an established land is"},{"startTime":1282.616,"endTime":1282.965,"body":"elite."},{"startTime":1284.705,"endTime":1289.633,"body":"The tenants were often required by the landowners to grow a crop of alfalfa, which"},{"startTime":1289.633,"endTime":1291.605,"body":"was used as feed for cattle."},{"startTime":1292.385,"endTime":1296.411,"body":"Now, you would, you had the tendency for three years, you would approve the land"},{"startTime":1296.411,"endTime":1297.485,"body":"to grow the crop."},{"startTime":1297.945,"endTime":1300.925,"body":"But alfalfa will pa will last properly for 15 years."},{"startTime":1301.465,"endTime":1305.115,"body":"So you could see there was a little bit of an exploitative relationship going on,"},{"startTime":1305.115,"endTime":1305.845,"body":"going on there."},{"startTime":1306.985,"endTime":1310.765,"body":"So this was a, a system which was more like exploitative."},{"startTime":1311.615,"endTime":1313.645,"body":"Other tenants depended upon credit."},{"startTime":1314.115,"endTime":1319.499,"body":"They were often in debt, and they sold their week to a few large, uh,"},{"startTime":1319.499,"endTime":1324.525,"body":"merchants who, again, could fix the price, uh, to the advantage of the merchants."},{"startTime":1326.145,"endTime":1330.405,"body":"So there was also immigration going, going to Argentina."},{"startTime":1330.785,"endTime":1334.765,"body":"But a lot of the profits I'm suggesting were going to the landowners."},{"startTime":1336.175,"endTime":1345.843,"body":"Let's contrast that with the experience of the prairies of Canada, their family farms were"},{"startTime":1345.843,"endTime":1351.645,"body":"much more powerful, more dominant and tendencies were secure."},{"startTime":1352.305,"endTime":1355.525,"body":"And that reflected the land policy of the federal government."},{"startTime":1356.255,"endTime":1358.205,"body":"There was no established land elite."},{"startTime":1358.865,"endTime":1364.493,"body":"And in Canada, the government adopted the homestead policy in 1872, which followed that, that"},{"startTime":1364.493,"endTime":1370.122,"body":"of the United States of America of 1864, distributing land, more or less free to"},{"startTime":1370.122,"endTime":1373.125,"body":"anybody who was willing to settle on it."},{"startTime":1373.625,"endTime":1378.565,"body":"So you have owner operated farmers, settle settled population,"},{"startTime":1380.255,"endTime":1387.483,"body":"Which built houses, communities, schools, churches, and very often had cooperative ownership of the grain"},{"startTime":1387.483,"endTime":1387.965,"body":"elevators."},{"startTime":1388.345,"endTime":1391.725,"body":"So they were more controlling who made the profit from it."},{"startTime":1393.265,"endTime":1400.656,"body":"So you have this big difference, which you should see in this, um, table here,"},{"startTime":1400.656,"endTime":1408.048,"body":"showing how dominant owner operators were in Canada compared with the Pampa In Argentina, where"},{"startTime":1408.048,"endTime":1411.005,"body":"renters were, were dominated, were dominating."},{"startTime":1411.265,"endTime":1417.421,"body":"So a big if like social, political economic difference between, uh, these, these areas and"},{"startTime":1417.421,"endTime":1421.525,"body":"much the same would apply to Australia as to Canada."},{"startTime":1423.985,"endTime":1432.507,"body":"So the prosperity of, um, Argentina, uh, before the First World War rested upon circumstances"},{"startTime":1432.507,"endTime":1436.485,"body":"that limited the prospects of long-term growth."},{"startTime":1436.945,"endTime":1442.098,"body":"So I'm suggesting that already, even when Argentina was one of the richest countries in"},{"startTime":1442.098,"endTime":1446.565,"body":"the world, there are limits to what what could happen with long-term growth."},{"startTime":1447.385,"endTime":1450.885,"body":"And strains were already becoming apparent before 1914."},{"startTime":1452.705,"endTime":1455.045,"body":"One of those strains was over debt and finance."},{"startTime":1457.065,"endTime":1460.445,"body":"The economy was heavily indebted outside."},{"startTime":1460.545,"endTime":1465.784,"body":"The government also borrowed heavily the cost of servicing the debt took up a high"},{"startTime":1465.784,"endTime":1470.325,"body":"proportion of revenue, therefore wasn't available for schools, for education, and so on."},{"startTime":1471.985,"endTime":1474.485,"body":"In 1890, there was a major recession."},{"startTime":1475.105,"endTime":1479.285,"body":"The servicing of the debt became really, uh, very, very difficult."},{"startTime":1480.065,"endTime":1485.392,"body":"And that exposed bearing brothers, the great merchant bank based here, here in London, the"},{"startTime":1485.392,"endTime":1490.719,"body":"dominant merchant bank for lending to Argentina bearings almost went bust and had to be"},{"startTime":1490.719,"endTime":1493.205,"body":"bailed out by the Bank of England."},{"startTime":1493.265,"endTime":1497.205,"body":"It was a potentially like the global financial crisis of 2008."},{"startTime":1497.875,"endTime":1498.845,"body":"Very, very serious."},{"startTime":1499.065,"endTime":1502.165,"body":"And that really hit, um, Argentina as well."},{"startTime":1503.555,"endTime":1509.122,"body":"This threatened the political order in the area, the corruption of the government, the lack"},{"startTime":1509.122,"endTime":1513.205,"body":"of political freedom and rights to selling out to foreign interests."},{"startTime":1514.025,"endTime":1521.759,"body":"It led to the revolution in the park in 1890 in Buenos Aires, when the"},{"startTime":1521.759,"endTime":1525.885,"body":"Civic union protested against corruption of the government."},{"startTime":1526.875,"endTime":1531.605,"body":"They called for, uh, political rights, for freedom for liberty."},{"startTime":1532.545,"endTime":1536.645,"body":"The president resigned, but little else changed."},{"startTime":1536.745,"endTime":1539.325,"body":"The Argentinian landowners were soon restored."},{"startTime":1539.745,"endTime":1547.402,"body":"And that, um, nationalist party I mentioned, a rocker regained control by rigging votes, gerrymandering"},{"startTime":1547.402,"endTime":1549.445,"body":"and pre presidential controls."},{"startTime":1550.945,"endTime":1556.273,"body":"But you also have a threat from the Italian immigrants I talked about who many"},{"startTime":1556.273,"endTime":1558.405,"body":"of whom were anarchists, socialists, ISTs."},{"startTime":1559.545,"endTime":1562.765,"body":"And they were very powerful amongst immigrants in Buenos Aires."},{"startTime":1563.745,"endTime":1569.376,"body":"So they wished to overturn the state, uh, this really sort of threat to the"},{"startTime":1569.376,"endTime":1575.007,"body":"political order as it was seen, and were also grievances by the tenant farmers who"},{"startTime":1575.007,"endTime":1576.885,"body":"went on strike in 1912."},{"startTime":1577.625,"endTime":1583.525,"body":"So the whole system here is, is looking very fragile, very, very strained already."},{"startTime":1584.705,"endTime":1589.765,"body":"Rocker, whom I referred to back in 1880, he returned as president in 1898."},{"startTime":1590.585,"endTime":1594.165,"body":"He faced strikes by workers challenges for the anarchists."},{"startTime":1595.105,"endTime":1601.845,"body":"And in 1891, the civic union, uh, made a deal with rocker, but they'd split."},{"startTime":1602.505,"endTime":1608.373,"body":"Um, and you get now a new radical civic union, uh, which led to further"},{"startTime":1608.373,"endTime":1608.765,"body":"uprisings."},{"startTime":1608.765,"endTime":1616.677,"body":"In 1893 and 1905, you have a new president, uh, who, uh, a new leader"},{"startTime":1616.677,"endTime":1621.425,"body":"who eventually becomes president HIPA leader Ir regression Gian."},{"startTime":1622.895,"endTime":1626.425,"body":"He's opposing the oligarchy of this old oligarchy."},{"startTime":1626.735,"endTime":1632.308,"body":"He's trying to draw together middle class people, business people, rural workers and settlers, and"},{"startTime":1632.308,"endTime":1637.881,"body":"some cattle ranches as well, uh, in, in, uh, uh, uh, attempt to overthrow this"},{"startTime":1637.881,"endTime":1638.625,"body":"old oligarchy."},{"startTime":1639.525,"endTime":1642.185,"body":"In 1916, he does become president."},{"startTime":1642.285,"endTime":1648.156,"body":"The dominance of the old, uh, party, uh, of rocker is, is ended, but it"},{"startTime":1648.156,"endTime":1650.505,"body":"doesn't lead to a massive change."},{"startTime":1651.305,"endTime":1657.965,"body":"Although he was elected president, he didn't control the, the, uh, the parliamentary system where"},{"startTime":1657.965,"endTime":1660.185,"body":"the conservatives he'll block reform."},{"startTime":1661.805,"endTime":1666.717,"body":"And he still hoped to continue the old export led model of growth based upon"},{"startTime":1666.717,"endTime":1669.665,"body":"the export of wheat of beef and so on."},{"startTime":1670.375,"endTime":1673.265,"body":"With, uh, of course, alliance with British capitalists."},{"startTime":1674.795,"endTime":1681.245,"body":"After the end of the first World War, he combined repression of strikes with some"},{"startTime":1681.245,"endTime":1685.545,"body":"concessions to the workers in terms of minimum wage legislation."},{"startTime":1685.565,"endTime":1692.182,"body":"So he's combining something which Powan is going to do, if, like, uh, repression with"},{"startTime":1692.182,"endTime":1693.065,"body":"welfare benefits."},{"startTime":1694.125,"endTime":1699.048,"body":"So what I'm arguing here is that the whole base of the Argentinian economy is"},{"startTime":1699.048,"endTime":1699.705,"body":"very fragile."},{"startTime":1700.855,"endTime":1707.065,"body":"Argentinian prosperity in 1914, before 1914, was not upon very secure basis."},{"startTime":1709.925,"endTime":1716.364,"body":"It rested upon a combination of exports dominated by great landowners, financed by British capital"},{"startTime":1716.364,"endTime":1721.945,"body":"that led to a corrupt oligarchic government with the support of the army."},{"startTime":1723.085,"endTime":1728.733,"body":"And that this oligarchic control was facing opposition from a variety of interests from urban"},{"startTime":1728.733,"endTime":1734.382,"body":"workers, small farmers, urban middle class, who thought that national interests had been abandoned and"},{"startTime":1734.382,"endTime":1736.265,"body":"sold out to British capital."},{"startTime":1737.605,"endTime":1744.28,"body":"So this system was facing very serious challenge between the wars and an no turn"},{"startTime":1744.28,"endTime":1750.065,"body":"then to what happens with the Great Depression, uh, which strikes in 1929."},{"startTime":1751.735,"endTime":1757.333,"body":"Well, Argentina had been prospering before the first World War on the basis of an"},{"startTime":1757.333,"endTime":1762.185,"body":"open world economy, free movement of capital, free movement of labor, open trade."},{"startTime":1763.245,"endTime":1766.825,"body":"It could not work after the war where these conditions changed."},{"startTime":1766.895,"endTime":1768.225,"body":"Various things happened."},{"startTime":1768.485,"endTime":1774.842,"body":"If you have, like, you have a process of deglobalization, which had a very major"},{"startTime":1774.842,"endTime":1779.505,"body":"impact on Argentina, as indeed it did on Canada and Australia."},{"startTime":1782.025,"endTime":1787.885,"body":"But what happens in Argentina is the policy choices make the situation far worse."},{"startTime":1789.665,"endTime":1795.082,"body":"So deglobalization hits all of these settler economies, undermining the model of growth that existed"},{"startTime":1795.082,"endTime":1795.805,"body":"before 1914."},{"startTime":1796.385,"endTime":1802.765,"body":"Let me just mention, uh, the major things which happened, first of all is capital."},{"startTime":1804.115,"endTime":1809.685,"body":"There's a drop in the amount of foreign investments as you see in Argentina."},{"startTime":1810.265,"endTime":1816.171,"body":"So it comes down from 4% to GDP to, uh, 1.1% and even lower after"},{"startTime":1816.171,"endTime":1816.565,"body":"that."},{"startTime":1817.465,"endTime":1820.205,"body":"So you're losing capital from overseas."},{"startTime":1820.625,"endTime":1825.525,"body":"But as I said, uh, earlier on, there's also less domestic saving."},{"startTime":1825.865,"endTime":1830.793,"body":"And you can see there, the domestic saving rate within Argentina is much lower than"},{"startTime":1830.793,"endTime":1832.765,"body":"it is in Australia than Canada."},{"startTime":1833.625,"endTime":1837.565,"body":"So what we have here is a lack of investment."},{"startTime":1839.115,"endTime":1848.121,"body":"Argentinian capital stock have been growing by about 5% a year between 1,919 13, but"},{"startTime":1848.121,"endTime":1854.125,"body":"it then fell to only 2.2% between 1913 and 1929."},{"startTime":1854.195,"endTime":1856.405,"body":"Very remarkable drop in investment."},{"startTime":1857.305,"endTime":1864.37,"body":"And that contributes to the relative decline of Argentina, less capital per worker, lower productivity"},{"startTime":1864.37,"endTime":1866.725,"body":"than in Australia and Canada."},{"startTime":1867.345,"endTime":1873.101,"body":"So that's one major change that reli upon foreign capital and low level of domestic"},{"startTime":1873.101,"endTime":1873.485,"body":"saving."},{"startTime":1875.345,"endTime":1877.205,"body":"And it's also a big change in trade."},{"startTime":1878.975,"endTime":1883.341,"body":"There was the end of the expansion of the frontier, the, uh, opening up of"},{"startTime":1883.341,"endTime":1887.125,"body":"more and more areas that Pampers for growing wheat and, uh, raising cattle."},{"startTime":1887.985,"endTime":1893.856,"body":"So that expansion era has come to an end, but also, of course, there's a"},{"startTime":1893.856,"endTime":1896.205,"body":"collapse in world trade more generally."},{"startTime":1896.205,"endTime":1901.085,"body":"And here we have, um, Argentinian exports and imports a percentage of GDP."},{"startTime":1901.085,"endTime":1906.522,"body":"And notice it goes down from about 80% of GDP before the war to about"},{"startTime":1906.522,"endTime":1906.885,"body":"20%."},{"startTime":1907.035,"endTime":1910.645,"body":"It's a massive drop in the level of trade."},{"startTime":1910.865,"endTime":1917.993,"body":"So the worldwide, uh, collapse of, uh, open trade European markets are closed off by"},{"startTime":1917.993,"endTime":1920.845,"body":"protective tariffs, a drive to Auta."},{"startTime":1921.625,"endTime":1930.219,"body":"And Britain decides to opt for imperial preference buying crops from Canada and Australia, not"},{"startTime":1930.219,"endTime":1931.365,"body":"from Argentina."},{"startTime":1933.505,"endTime":1939.673,"body":"But there's also a big difference in policy option, which goes on, which intensifies that"},{"startTime":1939.673,"endTime":1940.085,"body":"difference."},{"startTime":1941.025,"endTime":1948.143,"body":"In Canada, in the 1920s, the leading liberal politician needed to have, uh, electoral support"},{"startTime":1948.143,"endTime":1955.261,"body":"from, from farmers, try to encourage the exports, uh, build up the, the, uh, agrarian"},{"startTime":1955.261,"endTime":1956.685,"body":"sector in Argentina."},{"startTime":1957.355,"endTime":1962.282,"body":"That was not so much the, the, the, the case where Uhgo, I, I mentioned"},{"startTime":1962.282,"endTime":1967.21,"body":"is more reliant upon the support of urban voters in Buenos Aires and getting this,"},{"startTime":1967.21,"endTime":1968.525,"body":"the radical civic union."},{"startTime":1971.125,"endTime":1976.793,"body":"These differences in state support and in the level of investment means a big difference"},{"startTime":1976.793,"endTime":1980.195,"body":"takes place then in the quality of the produce."},{"startTime":1981.135,"endTime":1984.955,"body":"Canada pulled ahead both in the qual quality and the quantity."},{"startTime":1987.975,"endTime":1991.155,"body":"Canada is investing in better types of grain."},{"startTime":1991.305,"endTime":1999.446,"body":"It's better facilities, grading of wheat, preserving the quality, better marketing, uh, better elevators, which"},{"startTime":1999.446,"endTime":2001.075,"body":"are owned cooperatively."},{"startTime":2001.135,"endTime":2004.075,"body":"So there's been a big difference in the two areas."},{"startTime":2005.735,"endTime":2012.608,"body":"And also Canada favored encouraging industry, which is exporting, which is able to do across"},{"startTime":2012.608,"endTime":2016.275,"body":"the border, into the United States of America."},{"startTime":2016.945,"endTime":2021.195,"body":"That was not so easy for Argentina to do."},{"startTime":2022.025,"endTime":2030.289,"body":"Argentina turned to import substituting industrialization, try to encourage his own industries to replace imports"},{"startTime":2030.289,"endTime":2033.595,"body":"from Britain and the United States."},{"startTime":2034.775,"endTime":2040.43,"body":"Now, I've been talking here about Argentina, I should say that, uh, every country in"},{"startTime":2040.43,"endTime":2044.955,"body":"Latin America, all major economies in Latin America had the same problems."},{"startTime":2046.545,"endTime":2052.312,"body":"Same thing applied to Chile, which was an export of mainly nitrates and copper to"},{"startTime":2052.312,"endTime":2054.235,"body":"Brazil with its coffee rubber."},{"startTime":2055.135,"endTime":2057.875,"body":"All of them were facing the same problems in interwar period."},{"startTime":2058.645,"endTime":2064.759,"body":"Those problems were, uh, fall in the terms of trade, the amount of manufactured commodities"},{"startTime":2064.759,"endTime":2068.835,"body":"you could buy for a particular unit of export commodities."},{"startTime":2069.695,"endTime":2076.195,"body":"The price of export commodities dropped by about a third compared with the price of"},{"startTime":2076.195,"endTime":2078.795,"body":"manufactured goods, which were being imported."},{"startTime":2081.775,"endTime":2086.556,"body":"The economies of Latin America were highly dependent upon trade, as I showed from the"},{"startTime":2086.556,"endTime":2086.875,"body":"Argentina."},{"startTime":2088.495,"endTime":2094.73,"body":"So with a fall in the value of those commodities, and in the quantity of"},{"startTime":2094.73,"endTime":2100.965,"body":"those commodities, it also hits the tax revenues because they relied upon, uh, the, the,"},{"startTime":2100.965,"endTime":2103.875,"body":"uh, export, uh, duties on oddities commodities."},{"startTime":2104.415,"endTime":2106.915,"body":"So they're hit in their revenue."},{"startTime":2109.575,"endTime":2112.435,"body":"So all of this has a major impact"},{"startTime":2113.985,"endTime":2117.035,"body":"Fall in the price of commodities fall into quantitative commodities."},{"startTime":2117.225,"endTime":2121.835,"body":"It's immediately going to hit the, uh, level of economy, of the economy."},{"startTime":2122.935,"endTime":2125.515,"body":"One response then is to devalue your currency."},{"startTime":2126.095,"endTime":2129.747,"body":"If you devalue the currency, you'd have to pay even more money to service your"},{"startTime":2129.747,"endTime":2130.235,"body":"foreign debt."},{"startTime":2131.455,"endTime":2137.396,"body":"And the cost of servicing the foreign debt was as much as 70% of total"},{"startTime":2137.396,"endTime":2140.565,"body":"government revenue in some countries in Latin America."},{"startTime":2141.465,"endTime":2149.753,"body":"So it's a really serious crisis, and a common response throughout Latin America and in"},{"startTime":2149.753,"endTime":2158.042,"body":"Argentina was to turn from this export led growth to the import substituting industrialization developed"},{"startTime":2158.042,"endTime":2166.331,"body":"local industries to replace imported manufacturers, often complimented by labor codes that gave a right"},{"startTime":2166.331,"endTime":2174.619,"body":"to workers to unionize within incorporated system of conciliation boards, which represented workers, employers, and"},{"startTime":2174.619,"endTime":2175.725,"body":"the state."},{"startTime":2176.795,"endTime":2179.925,"body":"That was a way of containing radical working class movements."},{"startTime":2181.185,"endTime":2185.997,"body":"But it was a way then of building its corporatist economy, which some people would"},{"startTime":2185.997,"endTime":2189.205,"body":"see as being on the same lines as fascist Italy."},{"startTime":2190.025,"endTime":2196.381,"body":"People like Vargas in Brazil were particularly, uh, keen on building up this sort of"},{"startTime":2196.381,"endTime":2196.805,"body":"system."},{"startTime":2199.905,"endTime":2205.64,"body":"So the political situation in the 1920s in Argentina and other countries in Latin America"},{"startTime":2205.64,"endTime":2206.405,"body":"was unstable."},{"startTime":2208.895,"endTime":2214.925,"body":"Irrigation was forced outta the presidency, the radical civic union."},{"startTime":2215.125,"endTime":2219.805,"body":"I mentioned that he was leading split the old ruling elite makes of a turn."},{"startTime":2220.865,"endTime":2226.422,"body":"But there were continued threats from the anarchists, the emergence of the, the League of"},{"startTime":2226.422,"endTime":2228.645,"body":"Republic ha based upon Italian fascism."},{"startTime":2229.505,"endTime":2236.205,"body":"So there's continuations throughout the 1920s of political unrest at this time of economic turmoil."},{"startTime":2238.105,"endTime":2244.525,"body":"The impact of the depression then led to an army coup in 1930 that removed"},{"startTime":2244.525,"endTime":2248.805,"body":"the radical civic union from power and repressed the opposition."},{"startTime":2250.465,"endTime":2256.237,"body":"The leader of that coup in 1930 was part of a far right nationalist movement,"},{"startTime":2256.237,"endTime":2260.085,"body":"uh, that it emerged even before the first World War."},{"startTime":2260.235,"endTime":2264.565,"body":"It's a far right group that opposed socialism, but also opposed liberalism."},{"startTime":2265.345,"endTime":2268.445,"body":"It supported the Catholic church and its hierarchy."},{"startTime":2268.785,"endTime":2272.645,"body":"The large landed estates expressed hostility to foreigners."},{"startTime":2273.305,"endTime":2280.149,"body":"It it wanted to regain land seeded to neighboring states like Uruguay, a aim to"},{"startTime":2280.149,"endTime":2286.994,"body":"create an organic corporate society that would restore harmony between classes on the lines of"},{"startTime":2286.994,"endTime":2290.645,"body":"the papal in cyclical, uh, var of 1891."},{"startTime":2291.905,"endTime":2298.519,"body":"So the, the general who launched a coup in a, in 1930 was part of"},{"startTime":2298.519,"endTime":2301.165,"body":"that like far right, uh, movement."},{"startTime":2301.625,"endTime":2306.163,"body":"He was considered to be too far right, even by the other generals, uh, who"},{"startTime":2306.163,"endTime":2310.702,"body":"replaced him, uh, in 1932 by a more moderate general, if such a thing as"},{"startTime":2310.702,"endTime":2311.005,"body":"possible."},{"startTime":2312.025,"endTime":2319.353,"body":"And thereafter, the government was in the hands of a military oriented conservative elite with"},{"startTime":2319.353,"endTime":2322.285,"body":"continued conflict with radicals and fascists."},{"startTime":2322.985,"endTime":2326.285,"body":"The 1930s has been called the infamous decade."},{"startTime":2327.905,"endTime":2333.97,"body":"In 1933, a treaty was reached with Britain to sell some commodities from the Pampers,"},{"startTime":2333.97,"endTime":2337.205,"body":"the wheat and, and, and cattle to Britain."},{"startTime":2338.105,"endTime":2344.205,"body":"But at a very modest level, compared with what was coming from Canada and, uh,"},{"startTime":2344.205,"endTime":2349.085,"body":"Australia, and with strings attached that Argentina had to buy British goods."},{"startTime":2349.745,"endTime":2354.845,"body":"Uh, the market had to be controlled by British merchants, by British firms in Argentina."},{"startTime":2354.945,"endTime":2358.245,"body":"So of course, that stirs up even more nationalists out."},{"startTime":2358.245,"endTime":2359.085,"body":"They outcry."},{"startTime":2361.565,"endTime":2365.879,"body":"A new central bank is set up to stabilize the currency, but it is under"},{"startTime":2365.879,"endTime":2367.605,"body":"advice from the Bank of England."},{"startTime":2370.675,"endTime":2376.231,"body":"The government does introduce strict regulations to support prices to try and limit overproduction, because"},{"startTime":2376.231,"endTime":2379.935,"body":"this can then lead to great rigidities in the economy."},{"startTime":2381.115,"endTime":2382.575,"body":"The currency is depreciated."},{"startTime":2382.965,"endTime":2384.495,"body":"High tariffs have introduced."},{"startTime":2385.195,"endTime":2393.055,"body":"So in pushing its import substituting industrialization, the market is being distorted high prices for"},{"startTime":2393.055,"endTime":2398.295,"body":"capital, uh, com, uh, combined with like lack of investment."},{"startTime":2400.315,"endTime":2406.851,"body":"So there's again, this rather rigid, uh, system, which is not able to respond very"},{"startTime":2406.851,"endTime":2413.387,"body":"well to, uh, what, what is happening during the 1930s, a trade war rising tensions"},{"startTime":2413.387,"endTime":2414.695,"body":"throughout the world."},{"startTime":2415.315,"endTime":2426.095,"body":"In 1943, there is another military coup on behalf of the emergence of Peronism."},{"startTime":2427.575,"endTime":2432.685,"body":"After the coup of 1943, Peron became the minister for labor."},{"startTime":2433.595,"endTime":2434.845,"body":"He's, uh, an army officer."},{"startTime":2435.545,"endTime":2440.786,"body":"He worked with trade unions, and that led to resentment from his colleagues in the"},{"startTime":2440.786,"endTime":2441.485,"body":"military hunter."},{"startTime":2442.825,"endTime":2446.205,"body":"He is working with the trade unions to improve the conditions it looks."},{"startTime":2446.205,"endTime":2447.485,"body":"If he's becoming too popular."},{"startTime":2447.745,"endTime":2453.525,"body":"He was dismissed and imprisoned, but then was released, uh, popular demand."},{"startTime":2453.705,"endTime":2456.805,"body":"And in 1946 was elected president."},{"startTime":2457.065,"endTime":2462.165,"body":"And of course, his wife Eva, uh, was highly popular and politically active."},{"startTime":2464.135,"endTime":2469.713,"body":"Power is really building upon the policies I was outlining of that if like far"},{"startTime":2469.713,"endTime":2470.085,"body":"right."},{"startTime":2470.665,"endTime":2478.447,"body":"Uh, general I referred to came to par in, in 1930, and building upon import"},{"startTime":2478.447,"endTime":2479.485,"body":"substituting industrialization,"},{"startTime":2480.985,"endTime":2489.016,"body":"He was advocating a policy of social justice, economic independence, political sovereignty, designed to restore"},{"startTime":2489.016,"endTime":2492.765,"body":"the moral and material greatness of Argentina."},{"startTime":2493.425,"endTime":2496.805,"body":"To kind a phrase, he wanted to make Arten Argentina."},{"startTime":2496.815,"endTime":2497.165,"body":"Great."},{"startTime":2498.305,"endTime":2501.525,"body":"It was an anti-capitalist populist nationalism."},{"startTime":2502.845,"endTime":2506.525,"body":"A third way as he saw it, between communism and the free market."},{"startTime":2507.545,"endTime":2509.565,"body":"The ideology is difficult to pin down."},{"startTime":2510.585,"endTime":2515.755,"body":"To sum, it was a form of fascism to others, it was a sort of"},{"startTime":2515.755,"endTime":2520.925,"body":"left-wing populism to others, it was even something more of akin to Roosevelt's new deal."},{"startTime":2522.145,"endTime":2524.845,"body":"So peon had been part of the coup of 1930."},{"startTime":2525.265,"endTime":2529.645,"body":"He had some similarities with that ideology, i I outlined."},{"startTime":2530.665,"endTime":2536.301,"body":"But after he lost power in 1955, uh, before he regained power in 1973, he"},{"startTime":2536.301,"endTime":2537.805,"body":"turned to the left."},{"startTime":2538.545,"endTime":2539.885,"body":"He supported Castro."},{"startTime":2541.305,"endTime":2544.725,"body":"He was well, he was welcomed by Catholic liberation theology."},{"startTime":2546.025,"endTime":2553.347,"body":"And Peronism has continued to be this rather difficult thing to pin down different ideological"},{"startTime":2553.347,"endTime":2556.765,"body":"strands ranging from socialism to paternalistic conservatism."},{"startTime":2557.865,"endTime":2562.546,"body":"And you see there on the screen, some of the main principles that we just"},{"startTime":2562.546,"endTime":2567.228,"body":"outline some of, some of them very quickly, is a true democracy is one in"},{"startTime":2567.228,"endTime":2569.725,"body":"which the government does what the people want."},{"startTime":2570.185,"endTime":2572.005,"body":"It, it protects own into the people."},{"startTime":2572.795,"endTime":2574.005,"body":"It's of the common people."},{"startTime":2574.425,"endTime":2576.125,"body":"The elite is anti-people."},{"startTime":2577.595,"endTime":2579.365,"body":"It's only one class of persons."},{"startTime":2579.365,"endTime":2582.965,"body":"Those who work working creates the dignity of man."},{"startTime":2583.075,"endTime":2587.365,"body":"It's a duty is fair to produce as much as they consume."},{"startTime":2587.505,"endTime":2595.255,"body":"As Gates Volunteer Group two arms are social justice and social help justice and love"},{"startTime":2595.255,"endTime":2596.805,"body":"to the people."},{"startTime":2598.305,"endTime":2600.765,"body":"It balances the right of the individual and society."},{"startTime":2601.785,"endTime":2605.565,"body":"It was a social market, puts capital to the service of the economy."},{"startTime":2607.425,"endTime":2612.277,"body":"It carries out social justice, which gives each person their rights in accordance to their"},{"startTime":2612.277,"endTime":2612.925,"body":"social functions."},{"startTime":2614.185,"endTime":2619.525,"body":"It wants an Argentina, which is socially fair, economically free, and politically sovereign."},{"startTime":2619.705,"endTime":2623.365,"body":"We can see how that could be taken in all sorts of different directions."},{"startTime":2624.555,"endTime":2625.845,"body":"What did he actually try to do?"},{"startTime":2626.995,"endTime":2632.565,"body":"Well, first of all, you have a five year plan of 1947 to 51."},{"startTime":2633.185,"endTime":2640.19,"body":"It aimed to increase pay, achieve full employment, develop industry, improve social welfare in close"},{"startTime":2640.19,"endTime":2642.525,"body":"association with trade union movement."},{"startTime":2643.585,"endTime":2650.231,"body":"So a central feature was redistribution in favor of workers through subsidies, tax taxation, taxation"},{"startTime":2650.231,"endTime":2656.878,"body":"of the rich fiscal deficits, uh, build, uh, investing through having, uh, uh, um, an"},{"startTime":2656.878,"endTime":2657.765,"body":"unbalanced budget."},{"startTime":2659.105,"endTime":2660.005,"body":"How do you do that?"},{"startTime":2660.435,"endTime":2661.685,"body":"Well, you use senior age."},{"startTime":2661.785,"endTime":2665.565,"body":"You print money, printing money leads to inflation."},{"startTime":2666.745,"endTime":2673.005,"body":"The average inflation rate from 1944 to today has been about 190% per annum."},{"startTime":2674.505,"endTime":2679.405,"body":"But companies were not allowed to adjust their financial statements to allow for higher costs."},{"startTime":2680.995,"endTime":2686.05,"body":"They were being taxed on the increase in the value, which is created by the"},{"startTime":2686.05,"endTime":2686.725,"body":"government's inflation."},{"startTime":2687.435,"endTime":2689.725,"body":"This is what's called an inflation tax."},{"startTime":2689.725,"endTime":2695.965,"body":"Basically, the government was in, was, uh, taxing inflation, which it had itself created."},{"startTime":2696.465,"endTime":2700.895,"body":"And that, of course, is one of the key differences from Canada, Australia, where you"},{"startTime":2700.895,"endTime":2705.325,"body":"don't have rapid inflation, where you do have a fair attack system and capital investment."},{"startTime":2706.515,"endTime":2709.285,"body":"What we're having here is a violation of property rights."},{"startTime":2710.395,"endTime":2713.165,"body":"Inflation is inflating away people's savings."},{"startTime":2715.455,"endTime":2720.987,"body":"Peron, although he is working with the trade unions, is also involving industrialists to a"},{"startTime":2720.987,"endTime":2721.725,"body":"corporatist society."},{"startTime":2722.305,"endTime":2728.944,"body":"And he's particularly working with a man called Miguel Miranda, who formed a close relationship"},{"startTime":2728.944,"endTime":2732.485,"body":"with Palon by running the state industrial bank."},{"startTime":2732.505,"endTime":2734.805,"body":"And the so-called National Post-War Council."},{"startTime":2736.355,"endTime":2741.396,"body":"What he was aiming to do was to close the gap between the rich and"},{"startTime":2741.396,"endTime":2744.085,"body":"the poor, freeing Argentina from dependence on exports."},{"startTime":2744.755,"endTime":2754.829,"body":"What he was doing was taxing the export sector, these ranches to finance forced industrialization,"},{"startTime":2754.829,"endTime":2764.903,"body":"but inefficient forced industrialization, nationalizing the British foreign owned transport companies, uh, utilities, electricity ports"},{"startTime":2764.903,"endTime":2769.605,"body":"you see here on this publicity poster."},{"startTime":2771.505,"endTime":2775.45,"body":"But of course, that was app problem about how to pay for it and how"},{"startTime":2775.45,"endTime":2776.765,"body":"did you pay for it."},{"startTime":2776.835,"endTime":2782.518,"body":"When Miranda's answer with the setup, the Institute for the Promotion of Trade, basically this"},{"startTime":2782.518,"endTime":2788.201,"body":"institute bought all of the harvest and the cattle from the ranches at a low"},{"startTime":2788.201,"endTime":2793.885,"body":"price, and then tried to sell it on the overseas markets at a large profit."},{"startTime":2795.395,"endTime":2800.325,"body":"That profit would then be reinvested in state sponsored industry and economic development."},{"startTime":2800.665,"endTime":2806.458,"body":"It would also pay for welfare schemes, higher wages to just to boost the domestic"},{"startTime":2806.458,"endTime":2806.845,"body":"market."},{"startTime":2808.465,"endTime":2813.823,"body":"So obviously, those policies are going to be opposed by the landowners, and it was"},{"startTime":2813.823,"endTime":2819.181,"body":"very justified suspicion that most of the money was actually going into Miranda's own pocket,"},{"startTime":2819.181,"endTime":2821.325,"body":"uh, for his own personal advantage."},{"startTime":2822.835,"endTime":2828.811,"body":"Well, inflation this, uh, very expensive policy of nationalization so on, it was soon led"},{"startTime":2828.811,"endTime":2830.405,"body":"the economy to collapse."},{"startTime":2831.195,"endTime":2836.547,"body":"Foreign reserves, which would be built up during the war, were used to pay for"},{"startTime":2836.547,"endTime":2839.045,"body":"nationalization and to modernize the armed forces."},{"startTime":2840.785,"endTime":2844.845,"body":"The balance of payments deteriorated in order to industrialize."},{"startTime":2844.845,"endTime":2850.949,"body":"You need to import capital goods to build the new industries, but you don't have"},{"startTime":2850.949,"endTime":2854.205,"body":"the, the, uh, uh, revenue from the exports."},{"startTime":2855.035,"endTime":2860.744,"body":"Very high level of devaluation of the currency workers were hit by falling wages by"},{"startTime":2860.744,"endTime":2861.125,"body":"austerity."},{"startTime":2861.865,"endTime":2865.005,"body":"Uh, Miranda was dismissed in 1949."},{"startTime":2866.485,"endTime":2868.845,"body":"A second five year plan was introduced."},{"startTime":2869.185,"endTime":2874.191,"body":"We tried to show a little bit more concern for agriculture, but still there was"},{"startTime":2874.191,"endTime":2874.525,"body":"inflation."},{"startTime":2875.795,"endTime":2883.805,"body":"Austerity need to increase taxes, unrest, opposition, and Peron was overthrown in 1955."},{"startTime":2885.925,"endTime":2892.15,"body":"A a period of social unrest, political unrest, violence follows with disorder between right and"},{"startTime":2892.15,"endTime":2892.565,"body":"left."},{"startTime":2892.975,"endTime":2899.486,"body":"Peron briefly returned as present in 1973, but died in 1974 when he was succeeded"},{"startTime":2899.486,"endTime":2902.525,"body":"by his wife, not either another wife."},{"startTime":2904.145,"endTime":2909.28,"body":"So what I want to pick up now is then what happens to this import"},{"startTime":2909.28,"endTime":2909.965,"body":"substituting industrialization?"},{"startTime":2910.385,"endTime":2913.125,"body":"Can anything be done to improve the situation?"},{"startTime":2913.665,"endTime":2920.358,"body":"I'm just going to make two points here about what then happens to import substituting"},{"startTime":2920.358,"endTime":2920.805,"body":"industrialization."},{"startTime":2922.305,"endTime":2927.205,"body":"And that is going to take me across the Andes to Chilean in two ways."},{"startTime":2928.305,"endTime":2933.924,"body":"The first is to go across the Andes to Santiago, to a body set up"},{"startTime":2933.924,"endTime":2938.045,"body":"by the United Nations called the Economic Commission of Latin America."},{"startTime":2938.265,"endTime":2945.155,"body":"And the Caribbean clock, whose head was a man called Raul Pish, an Argentinian economist"},{"startTime":2945.155,"endTime":2952.046,"body":"who had been head of the Central Bank of Argentina until he went into exile"},{"startTime":2952.046,"endTime":2952.965,"body":"under Peron."},{"startTime":2954.705,"endTime":2957.205,"body":"He supported import substituting industrialization."},{"startTime":2958.025,"endTime":2962.965,"body":"But he said the solution was not purely nationalist."},{"startTime":2963.625,"endTime":2966.765,"body":"The solution, he said, was to change the whole structure of the international economy."},{"startTime":2967.875,"endTime":2974.082,"body":"He said the big problem was that collapsing the price of agricultural commodities or primary"},{"startTime":2974.082,"endTime":2980.29,"body":"products like copper from Chile compared with manufactured commodities, that the whole world of economy"},{"startTime":2980.29,"endTime":2984.015,"body":"was stacked against the, uh, the primary producing countries."},{"startTime":2985.685,"endTime":2989.775,"body":"They were getting to technological advance workers there got higher wages."},{"startTime":2989.775,"endTime":2991.135,"body":"They were, they were unionized."},{"startTime":2991.135,"endTime":2992.415,"body":"They could keep higher wages."},{"startTime":2992.645,"endTime":2999.295,"body":"Workers in the Latin American countries were not, didn't have such good bargaining power."},{"startTime":2999.675,"endTime":3002.655,"body":"The, uh, the country there didn't have such good bargaining power."},{"startTime":3002.885,"endTime":3007.776,"body":"What did to do was to work through a new body of which he became"},{"startTime":3007.776,"endTime":3012.015,"body":"the head in 1964, unad, the United Nations Commission on Trade and Development."},{"startTime":3012.555,"endTime":3019.93,"body":"And the idea here was for international policy to force up the price of primary"},{"startTime":3019.93,"endTime":3026.815,"body":"products against those of manufactured commodities to rebalance the world economy for distributive justice."},{"startTime":3027.555,"endTime":3033.184,"body":"Well, you can imagine what the advanced countries of the world in, uh, the World"},{"startTime":3033.184,"endTime":3038.814,"body":"Bank, the, the general agreement of trade and tariff said about that, which was basically,"},{"startTime":3038.814,"endTime":3039.565,"body":"forget it."},{"startTime":3040.785,"endTime":3045.205,"body":"So you, you have this, in fact, structuralist approach."},{"startTime":3047.495,"endTime":3052.598,"body":"Prish started to change his mind and said that, right, if we're gonna have import"},{"startTime":3052.598,"endTime":3057.702,"body":"substituting industrialization and it's going to work, we need to have a common market for"},{"startTime":3057.702,"endTime":3061.445,"body":"the whole of Latin America because individual nations are too small."},{"startTime":3062.345,"endTime":3067.133,"body":"We need to have a common market for Latin America, which he tried to sell"},{"startTime":3067.133,"endTime":3070.325,"body":"to Kennedy when Kennedy was president in the United States."},{"startTime":3070.985,"endTime":3076.818,"body":"So there's a beginning of a, if a movement away from this sort of extreme"},{"startTime":3076.818,"endTime":3081.485,"body":"nationalist peronism, there's more what was called, I call a structuralist approach."},{"startTime":3085.345,"endTime":3091.872,"body":"It doesn't, it doesn't really work because it's difficult to get the, the advanced countries"},{"startTime":3091.872,"endTime":3097.965,"body":"of the dominating the international institutions to, uh, to accept, uh, that, that point."},{"startTime":3099.275,"endTime":3105.257,"body":"There's the office's modernist office of Ecla in Santiago, and there's Rob ish, uh, at"},{"startTime":3105.257,"endTime":3109.245,"body":"the meeting, uh, at, at Ecla, putting these views forward."},{"startTime":3110.825,"endTime":3115.965,"body":"But also in Chile, you have, of course, another person, uh, Pinoche."},{"startTime":3117.545,"endTime":3121.285,"body":"And I think we need to understand, uh, what is happening there."},{"startTime":3121.985,"endTime":3127.685,"body":"Now, we start off, of course, with Hindi, uh, winning the election as, as a,"},{"startTime":3127.685,"endTime":3133.385,"body":"as a socialist, um, until he is overthrown by Pinoche in 1973, whom he perhaps"},{"startTime":3133.385,"endTime":3136.805,"body":"unwisely appointed as being the head of the Army"},{"startTime":3139.465,"endTime":3145.605,"body":"Before the coup, the economy of Chile like that, of Argentina was in a mess."},{"startTime":3146.705,"endTime":3147.765,"body":"All imports needed."},{"startTime":3147.925,"endTime":3152.045,"body":"A license duties range from zero to 250%."},{"startTime":3152.215,"endTime":3154.765,"body":"There were 10 exchange rates for the currency."},{"startTime":3155.675,"endTime":3159.75,"body":"Importers had to make a deposit of 10000% of the value of imports while they"},{"startTime":3159.75,"endTime":3160.565,"body":"were in transit."},{"startTime":3161.785,"endTime":3167.919,"body":"Uh, agriculture was hit by the high costs of, of, uh, equipment of fertilizers and"},{"startTime":3167.919,"endTime":3173.645,"body":"exchange rates changing all the time, manufactured goods at a high level of protection."},{"startTime":3173.705,"endTime":3175.165,"body":"But the market was too small."},{"startTime":3175.365,"endTime":3176.605,"body":"They were very inefficient."},{"startTime":3177.785,"endTime":3185.197,"body":"In 1955, the State Department of the United States introduced the Chile project, which is"},{"startTime":3185.197,"endTime":3189.645,"body":"a trained Chile economists at the University of Chicago,"},{"startTime":3192.655,"endTime":3198.045,"body":"Theor, of course, for free market economics from the late 1950s within Chile."},{"startTime":3198.045,"endTime":3199.965,"body":"There's then a war of ideas."},{"startTime":3201.225,"endTime":3206.245,"body":"The Chicago boys were based at the, at the Catholic University."},{"startTime":3207.435,"endTime":3215.347,"body":"They favored free trade, and they argued against the economists at the University of Chile,"},{"startTime":3215.347,"endTime":3222.205,"body":"who favored Pre's view, structuralist view to the Chicago boys import substitute industrialization."},{"startTime":3222.605,"endTime":3225.085,"body":"Structuralism led to inefficiencies."},{"startTime":3225.475,"endTime":3227.365,"body":"They argued for trade liberalization."},{"startTime":3228.675,"endTime":3234.645,"body":"They argued for devaluation of the currency to make goods more competitive."},{"startTime":3235.195,"endTime":3240.903,"body":"They argued for the abolition of price controls, which were related to rigidities in the"},{"startTime":3240.903,"endTime":3242.045,"body":"market and inefficiencies."},{"startTime":3242.395,"endTime":3247.27,"body":"They argued for freeing up interest rates so that they would find the equilibrium and"},{"startTime":3247.27,"endTime":3248.245,"body":"improve economic efficiency."},{"startTime":3248.985,"endTime":3254.721,"body":"Now, initially, they didn't make much headway, but in 1970, sorry, in 1970, they didn't,"},{"startTime":3254.721,"endTime":3260.458,"body":"they didn't make much headway when they presented their case to the conservative presidential candidate"},{"startTime":3260.458,"endTime":3266.195,"body":"who said, and I quote, get these crazy guys out of here and make sure"},{"startTime":3266.195,"endTime":3267.725,"body":"they never come back."},{"startTime":3268.195,"endTime":3269.165,"body":"Well, they did come back."},{"startTime":3270.035,"endTime":3274.525,"body":"They came back under in opposition to ie."},{"startTime":3274.955,"endTime":3277.725,"body":"When Army offices commissioned them to write a report."},{"startTime":3277.825,"endTime":3278.685,"body":"It was so fat."},{"startTime":3278.785,"endTime":3280.205,"body":"It was called the brick."},{"startTime":3281.305,"endTime":3282.405,"body":"It was so, so big."},{"startTime":3283.265,"endTime":3292.438,"body":"And this brick argued that they should try to do the policies of opening up"},{"startTime":3292.438,"endTime":3294.885,"body":"when I was overthrown."},{"startTime":3294.945,"endTime":3296.725,"body":"And PIO came, came in."},{"startTime":3296.835,"endTime":3301.845,"body":"Pinoche himself was a little bit wary because a lot of army officers were nationalists."},{"startTime":3302.645,"endTime":3306.245,"body":"A lot of industrialists, of course, did not want to lose their protectionism."},{"startTime":3307.425,"endTime":3314.681,"body":"But by after a few years of, of, of his government, he did decide to"},{"startTime":3314.681,"endTime":3321.938,"body":"throw his lot in with the Chicago boys, against the nationalist officers and against the"},{"startTime":3321.938,"endTime":3325.325,"body":"business people whose wealth rested on protectionism."},{"startTime":3326.425,"endTime":3332.715,"body":"He was convinced by Milton Friedman, who came on a visit in 1975, and he"},{"startTime":3332.715,"endTime":3339.005,"body":"appointed, uh, Sergio Castro as minister of economics, the most senior of the Chicago boys."},{"startTime":3340.105,"endTime":3346.63,"body":"Now, I think that this, what they were introducing was not in fact Milton Friedman's"},{"startTime":3346.63,"endTime":3348.805,"body":"type of outright doctrinaire neoliberalism."},{"startTime":3349.185,"endTime":3351.765,"body":"It was a more pragmatic neoliberalism."},{"startTime":3352.355,"endTime":3359.062,"body":"They wanted to combine the market and privatization and competitive in exports and foreign investment,"},{"startTime":3359.062,"endTime":3365.77,"body":"but with a, some sort of a belief that the state should have a guiding"},{"startTime":3365.77,"endTime":3372.477,"body":"hand, if not complete planning, then a sort of guiding hand over the, over the"},{"startTime":3372.477,"endTime":3372.925,"body":"process."},{"startTime":3375.705,"endTime":3380.765,"body":"So it wasn't going to be like the outright free marketeer."},{"startTime":3381.515,"endTime":3387.685,"body":"It's going to try to reduce extreme poverty by targeted social programs."},{"startTime":3388.265,"endTime":3390.685,"body":"Reform of the pension system, for example."},{"startTime":3392.195,"endTime":3398.01,"body":"They stop the outright land reform, which I day was going in for, and encourage"},{"startTime":3398.01,"endTime":3403.826,"body":"farmers to go crops like peaches, andicott, avocados, which could be sold to the north,"},{"startTime":3403.826,"endTime":3405.765,"body":"uh, in the off season."},{"startTime":3407.075,"endTime":3410.165,"body":"They didn't want to go for complete and utter free trade."},{"startTime":3411.185,"endTime":3415.085,"body":"But some sort of a compromise between this."},{"startTime":3415.705,"endTime":3422.085,"body":"So the, the, the market has a role combined with decentralized planning."},{"startTime":3424.125,"endTime":3429.651,"body":"I think that that policy, which introduced was then continued very much after the return"},{"startTime":3429.651,"endTime":3431.125,"body":"of democracy in 1990."},{"startTime":3431.995,"endTime":3439.939,"body":"Many of those ideas were continued both by Christian Democrats and by socialist governments in"},{"startTime":3439.939,"endTime":3445.765,"body":"Chile, alongside improved welfare policies have been defined as inclusive neoliberalism."},{"startTime":3446.385,"endTime":3451.119,"body":"So the idea that there is a, a very like, simple Washington consensus of neoliberalism,"},{"startTime":3451.119,"endTime":3453.645,"body":"uh, it doesn't seem to be quite right."},{"startTime":3454.795,"endTime":3458.965,"body":"Well, my conclusion then, this, pull out the main stories out outta this."},{"startTime":3459.905,"endTime":3465.886,"body":"As I said at the beginning, there was a 60% drop in Argent Argentina's relative"},{"startTime":3465.886,"endTime":3466.285,"body":"income."},{"startTime":3467.355,"endTime":3471.445,"body":"Same thing happened in many other countries, but obviously Chile started to recover."},{"startTime":3471.825,"endTime":3475.685,"body":"Its some of its share in the nineties, from the 1970s and 1980s."},{"startTime":3476.665,"endTime":3478.045,"body":"Why was there this massive drop?"},{"startTime":3479.555,"endTime":3484.647,"body":"Well, it goes back to the agrarian structure of larger states versus the small farm"},{"startTime":3484.647,"endTime":3486.685,"body":"family farms of other settler societies."},{"startTime":3488.115,"endTime":3495.266,"body":"It's about the ownership of larger states being in alliance with British capital, and that"},{"startTime":3495.266,"endTime":3502.417,"body":"British capital needed to cover low savings rates internally, but also lead to resentment more"},{"startTime":3502.417,"endTime":3504.325,"body":"than other secular societies."},{"startTime":3505.395,"endTime":3513.045,"body":"When capital imports dropped, there was low savings, lack of investment inefficiency, uh, low productivity."},{"startTime":3514.225,"endTime":3516.605,"body":"The political system lacked stability."},{"startTime":3517.665,"endTime":3523.881,"body":"The autocratic power of the conservative elites led to opposition from socialist anarchist populist hostility"},{"startTime":3523.881,"endTime":3525.125,"body":"to foreign control."},{"startTime":3525.995,"endTime":3533.417,"body":"Then it turned to import, substitute industrialization under Peron, the state policies limited growth, import"},{"startTime":3533.417,"endTime":3538.365,"body":"substituting industrialization, distorted the economy with subsidies, controls, and tariffs."},{"startTime":3539.305,"endTime":3545.005,"body":"And that reliance upon inflation as a strategy of finance was destructive of property rights."},{"startTime":3546.505,"endTime":3550.336,"body":"Now, we could think back, if any of you heard my previous lecture on South"},{"startTime":3550.336,"endTime":3552.125,"body":"Korea and Japan to what they did."},{"startTime":3553.055,"endTime":3559.361,"body":"Their governments were very clear that they should not be controlled by foreign capital, that"},{"startTime":3559.361,"endTime":3563.565,"body":"they should build up a high level of domestic savings."},{"startTime":3564.815,"endTime":3570.43,"body":"Their states had a clear industrial strategy, but it was based upon exports in key"},{"startTime":3570.43,"endTime":3570.805,"body":"sectors."},{"startTime":3571.825,"endTime":3577.589,"body":"Now, the question which is facing us now, facing Argentina now with its new president,"},{"startTime":3577.589,"endTime":3583.354,"body":"is can Argentina break from its current po problems of, again, its position, but I"},{"startTime":3583.354,"endTime":3586.045,"body":"don't think the prospects are very bright."},{"startTime":3586.935,"endTime":3587.405,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3593.255,"endTime":3593.725,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3593.855,"endTime":3595.205,"body":"Thank you, professor Dalton."},{"startTime":3595.405,"endTime":3601.062,"body":"Actually, to continue on that, on that question, someone is actually interested in, uh, following"},{"startTime":3601.062,"endTime":3603.325,"body":"the, the recent, uh, IMF intervention."},{"startTime":3603.585,"endTime":3606.965,"body":"Uh, what does the future hold for Argentina's economy?"},{"startTime":3608.275,"endTime":3610.998,"body":"Well, it still are very good at looking at the past and not so good"},{"startTime":3610.998,"endTime":3611.725,"body":"looking at the future."},{"startTime":3612.145,"endTime":3616.565,"body":"Uh, I don't think the prospects look, uh, look, look very, very good."},{"startTime":3616.805,"endTime":3622.74,"body":"I think in, in a way, it's a continuation of the story that I've been"},{"startTime":3622.74,"endTime":3627.885,"body":"been telling, um, uh, rapid inflation, uh, devaluation of the, of, of currencies."},{"startTime":3628.645,"endTime":3631.685,"body":"A flight of people, uh, away from Argentina."},{"startTime":3631.765,"endTime":3637.062,"body":"I was very struck, uh, this morning in the Guardian newspaper, a story which actually"},{"startTime":3637.062,"endTime":3642.36,"body":"picks up what I was saying at the beginning, uh, about, uh, did you make"},{"startTime":3642.36,"endTime":3646.245,"body":"the right decision in 1910 to migrate from Italy to Argentina?"},{"startTime":3646.425,"endTime":3650.618,"body":"The story in The Guardian today is that a lot of doctors are leaving Italian"},{"startTime":3650.618,"endTime":3654.811,"body":"doctors, uh, heritage doctors are leaving bu air used to go and work in Sicily,"},{"startTime":3654.811,"endTime":3659.005,"body":"uh, because, uh, of the mess that the economy is, is, is, is in there."},{"startTime":3659.425,"endTime":3664.881,"body":"Um, I was just hinting there at the end about the new president in, in"},{"startTime":3664.881,"endTime":3665.245,"body":"Argentina."},{"startTime":3666.075,"endTime":3670.805,"body":"Does he have the solution to, uh, what, what's going going on there?"},{"startTime":3671.025,"endTime":3675.965,"body":"Uh, well, Malay is, um, I'm not sure exactly how to categorize him."},{"startTime":3676.425,"endTime":3683.861,"body":"One categorization is that he's a libertarian, um, economist, far, far right, you know, take,"},{"startTime":3683.861,"endTime":3685.845,"body":"take controls of everything."},{"startTime":3686.315,"endTime":3692.045,"body":"It's even been described as an, as an, an arco capitalist, an arco capitalism."},{"startTime":3692.105,"endTime":3697.005,"body":"If you any of you read the, the book by Quinn ian Crackup Capitalism Mm-Hmm."},{"startTime":3697.045,"endTime":3701.957,"body":"\u003caffirmative\u003e is a way of in fact, hollowing out the state and, and creating areas"},{"startTime":3701.957,"endTime":3706.87,"body":"of the o of economies, which are, uh, completely outside, uh, any sort of state,"},{"startTime":3706.87,"endTime":3707.525,"body":"uh, control."},{"startTime":3708.385,"endTime":3714.485,"body":"Uh, so it's difficult to see exactly what he's, what he's doing."},{"startTime":3714.865,"endTime":3719.245,"body":"Uh, the situation in Chile is also very interesting."},{"startTime":3719.365,"endTime":3724.376,"body":"I referred to the pension reform in Chile, which in, in many ways it was"},{"startTime":3724.376,"endTime":3729.388,"body":"a precursor of the sort pension reform that we've had with self-employed pensions and, uh,"},{"startTime":3729.388,"endTime":3730.725,"body":"that sort of thing."},{"startTime":3730.915,"endTime":3736.82,"body":"Well, there's been riots in Santiago against the pension reforms, which are, are not delivering"},{"startTime":3736.82,"endTime":3742.725,"body":"the sort of level of income, which is, uh, had been anticipated, had been promised."},{"startTime":3743.265,"endTime":3749.036,"body":"So, um, the, the prospects there were of Chile, which I was saying looked as"},{"startTime":3749.036,"endTime":3754.808,"body":"if whatever one might think about the appalling behavior of, of the, of the government"},{"startTime":3754.808,"endTime":3760.58,"body":"there, the economy did, did recover, and some of the policies were then followed up"},{"startTime":3760.58,"endTime":3760.965,"body":"afterwards."},{"startTime":3761.065,"endTime":3762.845,"body":"It now looks as if that's hit the buffers."},{"startTime":3763.625,"endTime":3765.725,"body":"Uh, so, uh, I'm a bit gloomy."},{"startTime":3766.415,"endTime":3766.765,"body":"Sorry."},{"startTime":3767.225,"endTime":3771.005,"body":"Um, can I please ask you, um, um, there have been several things."},{"startTime":3771.025,"endTime":3778.169,"body":"You have mentioned, um, totally ignoring, um, the, the, the severe differences in all these"},{"startTime":3778.169,"endTime":3783.885,"body":"Latin American countries, but there are several things you've said several times."},{"startTime":3784.535,"endTime":3790.66,"body":"First and foremost, can I correct you, Salvador A was not overthrown by Pinoche, Salvador"},{"startTime":3790.66,"endTime":3791.885,"body":"A was murdered."},{"startTime":3793.145,"endTime":3799.4,"body":"The, the, the, the declassified documents from the Ccia A are clear, CIA involvement murdered"},{"startTime":3799.4,"endTime":3801.485,"body":"in his palace last year."},{"startTime":3801.485,"endTime":3807.651,"body":"Several articles analyzed and mentioned that situation again, he was not overthrown, he was murdered"},{"startTime":3807.651,"endTime":3808.885,"body":"in by posh."},{"startTime":3809.505,"endTime":3817.551,"body":"Um, you've said, you said twice, um, um, the danger of anarchist and socialism to"},{"startTime":3817.551,"endTime":3824.525,"body":"the economy, and then you said again, um, um, hostilities to foreign control."},{"startTime":3825.685,"endTime":3832.01,"body":"I think what you haven't mentioned here is the enormous inequalities and the growth poverty"},{"startTime":3832.01,"endTime":3838.336,"body":"that existed in all these Latin American countries, and that for centuries, it was the,"},{"startTime":3838.336,"endTime":3840.445,"body":"the control of foreign companies."},{"startTime":3840.825,"endTime":3841.045,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":3841.305,"endTime":3848.12,"body":"The, the, the capital, the the, um, um, cannibalization of the resources of the Latin"},{"startTime":3848.12,"endTime":3854.936,"body":"American countries by Spain, Canada, America, with their companies that caused these economic instabilities in"},{"startTime":3854.936,"endTime":3855.845,"body":"Latin America."},{"startTime":3856.385,"endTime":3859.285,"body":"You have c could you please say something about that?"},{"startTime":3859.285,"endTime":3859.605,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":3859.845,"endTime":3862.245,"body":"'cause you have totally ignored that aspect of it."},{"startTime":3862.745,"endTime":3867.653,"body":"Uh, first of all, on IND, whether or not he was merged or committed suicide,"},{"startTime":3867.653,"endTime":3870.925,"body":"I think it, the government was overthrown, it was replaced."},{"startTime":3870.985,"endTime":3877.012,"body":"So I I I don't see, uh, the, that, that I, no, we agreed that"},{"startTime":3877.012,"endTime":3883.039,"body":"whether the government ended, what by whatever process, CIA was, was obviously involved, American corporation"},{"startTime":3883.039,"endTime":3884.245,"body":"were, were involved."},{"startTime":3884.985,"endTime":3887.005,"body":"The government, uh, was, was overthrown."},{"startTime":3887.785,"endTime":3892.635,"body":"Um, I thought I had talked about the way in which, uh, foreign capital controlled"},{"startTime":3892.635,"endTime":3897.485,"body":"and, and took out, took out profits from, uh, from the, this, the, these countries."},{"startTime":3897.705,"endTime":3902.716,"body":"Uh, it's not only true of what I'm saying in Argentina, it's true of, uh,"},{"startTime":3902.716,"endTime":3906.725,"body":"uh, Chile, where the copper companies were owned by, uh, US companies."},{"startTime":3906.725,"endTime":3908.325,"body":"It's true of Hondura or whatever."},{"startTime":3908.625,"endTime":3913.791,"body":"Um, with, uh, United Fruit, it's true of Venezuela with, uh, with the, with the"},{"startTime":3913.791,"endTime":3917.925,"body":"old companies, uh, uh, within a lecture, which is already too long."},{"startTime":3918.245,"endTime":3924.77,"body":"I can only, I thought I'd concentrate upon Argentina, where the ownership of British capital"},{"startTime":3924.77,"endTime":3928.685,"body":"was obviously huge and was, um, uh, deeply resented."},{"startTime":3928.785,"endTime":3934.035,"body":"But it's different from, uh, Australia and Canada, where a lot of the money there"},{"startTime":3934.035,"endTime":3937.885,"body":"went to the governments of those countries, which controlled it democratically."},{"startTime":3937.885,"endTime":3943.245,"body":"So there's, there's a difference in how foreign capital is, is, is perceived."},{"startTime":3943.585,"endTime":3948.772,"body":"So, um, I think I, I was making the point that, um, that you are"},{"startTime":3948.772,"endTime":3953.96,"body":"making, I think we agreed that there was a lot of extraction from these, uh,"},{"startTime":3953.96,"endTime":3959.148,"body":"economies, uh, which would've start, of course, under the, um, uh, previous, uh, imperial regimes"},{"startTime":3959.148,"endTime":3963.645,"body":"of, uh, of the Portuguese Empire and the, the, the Spanish, uh, empire."},{"startTime":3963.665,"endTime":3965.805,"body":"So I don't think we're widely part on that."},{"startTime":3965.865,"endTime":3970.965,"body":"And of course, there's huge inequalities, uh, poverty within, within these, uh, within these countries."},{"startTime":3971.505,"endTime":3975.565,"body":"Um, so yeah, I don't, I don't think we're, we're actually disagreeing,"},{"startTime":3976.665,"endTime":3978.805,"body":"Um, moving forward, actually."},{"startTime":3979.105,"endTime":3984.34,"body":"Um, someone is asking, did the, uh, the debt crisis experience in, in Latin, by"},{"startTime":3984.34,"endTime":3989.576,"body":"Latin, uh, America in the early eighties, uh, contribute to the, to the ideological, actually"},{"startTime":3989.576,"endTime":3993.765,"body":"consolidation of the Washington consensus that you described, or neoliberalism in general?"},{"startTime":3993.955,"endTime":3994.245,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3994.835,"endTime":3995.125,"body":"Okay."},{"startTime":3995.305,"endTime":4000.519,"body":"Um, so you're thinking of the, the 1982 debt crisis in, in, in Latin America"},{"startTime":4000.519,"endTime":4002.605,"body":"then, and, and then subsequent ones."},{"startTime":4003.105,"endTime":4009.085,"body":"Um, I think that's a, a really interesting, um, story to, to be told."},{"startTime":4009.605,"endTime":4016.615,"body":"I think what's happening there is there's a huge flood of money going into the"},{"startTime":4016.615,"endTime":4023.626,"body":"countries of central, um, America, of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, uh, from money, which is"},{"startTime":4023.626,"endTime":4027.365,"body":"produced by the, the old shock of 1973."},{"startTime":4028.225,"endTime":4033.285,"body":"So you have a huge amount of, of petro dollars, which need to be recycled."},{"startTime":4034.225,"endTime":4041.227,"body":"And whereas the period I'm talking about the foreign capital is going into these country"},{"startTime":4041.227,"endTime":4048.229,"body":"largely through bonds, uh, and, uh, equities in companies, these, these petro dollars are being"},{"startTime":4048.229,"endTime":4053.365,"body":"put by commercial banks, uh, into what a large authoritarian regimes."},{"startTime":4054.385,"endTime":4061.381,"body":"And, uh, Eduardo Alt, the University of Manchester is now doing a big project on"},{"startTime":4061.381,"endTime":4067.445,"body":"the, the, uh, provision of this commercial capital for banks into authoritarian regimes."},{"startTime":4067.465,"endTime":4073.513,"body":"And some of it's actually quite astonishing, which plays to your point of the question,"},{"startTime":4073.513,"endTime":4079.561,"body":"um, that people like Lloyd's Bank, the archives are open, uh, are saying, well, yeah,"},{"startTime":4079.561,"endTime":4079.965,"body":"fine."},{"startTime":4080.145,"endTime":4082.765,"body":"Uh, it's great to lend these authoritarian regimes."},{"startTime":4082.765,"endTime":4084.325,"body":"They created stability."},{"startTime":4085.545,"endTime":4088.765,"body":"Uh, there might, people might be disappearing."},{"startTime":4089.995,"endTime":4092.885,"body":"They might be, but hey, this is safe."},{"startTime":4093.465,"endTime":4099.133,"body":"Uh, Nicholas Ridley, the conservative cabinet minister, uh, said, said words more or less to"},{"startTime":4099.133,"endTime":4100.645,"body":"that, to that effect."},{"startTime":4101.265,"endTime":4107.444,"body":"Uh, and of course, um, mark Stacher, uh, was I think, um, supportive of Pina."},{"startTime":4107.444,"endTime":4111.645,"body":"She pina she sometimes seen as the beginning of neoliberalism."},{"startTime":4112.425,"endTime":4119.403,"body":"So, uh, I think that like financialization, that that, that, that movement of the banks"},{"startTime":4119.403,"endTime":4123.125,"body":"back into this is a very important issue."},{"startTime":4123.944,"endTime":4126.444,"body":"But I think we also need to be a bit, a bit careful."},{"startTime":4126.825,"endTime":4132.685,"body":"Uh, the Washington consensus can be used as a catchall phrase of extreme neoliberalism."},{"startTime":4133.265,"endTime":4138.867,"body":"But the recent book by Sebastian Edwards, which is on the, um, the, the pin,"},{"startTime":4138.867,"endTime":4144.469,"body":"the Pinoche government, uh, he was actually, uh, involved himself as part of, as, as,"},{"startTime":4144.469,"endTime":4149.325,"body":"as an economist is saying that actually there were different strands of neoliberalism."},{"startTime":4150.064,"endTime":4157.201,"body":"Um, so he, he was saying that the, the Chicago boys from the, um, the,"},{"startTime":4157.201,"endTime":4164.338,"body":"the Catholic University were pragmatic Neoliberals, mm-hmm, \u003caffirmative\u003e, and they were following, um, a somebody"},{"startTime":4164.338,"endTime":4170.524,"body":"from the University of Chicago Harberger, who was not as rigid as Friedman."},{"startTime":4171.104,"endTime":4176.792,"body":"So I think that, uh, that the, that the new work on neoliberalism is trying"},{"startTime":4176.792,"endTime":4180.205,"body":"to tease out differences within the, within neo neoliberalism."},{"startTime":4181.904,"endTime":4182.404,"body":"So, uh,"},{"startTime":4182.675,"endTime":4183.365,"body":"Well, thank you very much."},{"startTime":4183.484,"endTime":4187.716,"body":"I think, I'm afraid we're running out of time, \u003claugh\u003e, we're already more than 10"},{"startTime":4187.716,"endTime":4188.845,"body":"minutes past, I'm afraid."},{"startTime":4189.145,"endTime":4194.204,"body":"But I believe there's actually this conversation about the role of the state actually, um,"},{"startTime":4194.204,"endTime":4196.565,"body":"is going to continue, uh, next year."},{"startTime":4196.565,"endTime":4202.41,"body":"Professor, uh, ton is, uh, coming back in the autumn, and, uh, he will talk"},{"startTime":4202.41,"endTime":4208.255,"body":"about cities collective action versus private market in a series of three rather exciting, uh,"},{"startTime":4208.255,"endTime":4208.645,"body":"lectures."},{"startTime":4208.995,"endTime":4212.205,"body":"Well, uh, please join me in, uh, thanking again, professor Martin."}]}