{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":8.585,"endTime":12.11,"body":"And thank you all very much for coming to the 11th of our Gresham lectures"},{"startTime":12.11,"endTime":15.165,"body":"on the environment, on the topic of net zero and in this lecture."},{"startTime":15.425,"endTime":17.885,"body":"So over this course, there's the fifth of the lectures this year."},{"startTime":17.885,"endTime":22.312,"body":"While we're talking about the, I mean, the overall theme is when net zero, so"},{"startTime":22.312,"endTime":26.445,"body":"sort of how, how fast should we, we be thinking about stopping climate change."},{"startTime":26.945,"endTime":31.077,"body":"Um, and in, in the last couple of lectures, we talked about impact of climate"},{"startTime":31.077,"endTime":35.21,"body":"change on extreme weather, and then in the most recent one, um, global tipping points"},{"startTime":35.21,"endTime":39.343,"body":"and the kind of things that people typically worry about and ask me about in"},{"startTime":39.343,"endTime":43.476,"body":"terms of how they, how they, uh, am I concerned about the impact of climate"},{"startTime":43.476,"endTime":45.405,"body":"change on this, that, and the other."},{"startTime":45.985,"endTime":50.253,"body":"And, uh, uh, I, I just sort of start off by explaining this lecture is"},{"startTime":50.253,"endTime":52.245,"body":"about what I really am concerned about."},{"startTime":52.585,"endTime":57.435,"body":"Um, and, uh, a long time ago, uh, mark Linus, uh, an author based in"},{"startTime":57.435,"endTime":62.285,"body":"Oxford, somebody I've got to know quite well, um, published a book called Six Degrees."},{"startTime":62.465,"endTime":66.336,"body":"And it was all about the bad things that happened as you progressed up through"},{"startTime":66.336,"endTime":67.885,"body":"the degrees as the world warmed."},{"startTime":68.145,"endTime":72.195,"body":"And I remember at the time, students asking me, I was on a panel with"},{"startTime":72.195,"endTime":74.085,"body":"Mark, was I worried about Six Degrees?"},{"startTime":74.305,"endTime":76.485,"body":"And the honest answer was not really."},{"startTime":77.965,"endTime":82.329,"body":"The Gresham College lecture that you're listening to right now is giving you knowledge and"},{"startTime":82.329,"endTime":86.694,"body":"insight from one of the world's leading academic experts, making it takes a lot of"},{"startTime":86.694,"endTime":86.985,"body":"time."},{"startTime":87.485,"endTime":90.541,"body":"But because we want to encourage a love of learning, we think it's well worth"},{"startTime":90.541,"endTime":90.745,"body":"it."},{"startTime":91.685,"endTime":95.025,"body":"We never make you pay for lectures, although donations are needed."},{"startTime":95.525,"endTime":98.825,"body":"All we ask in return is this, send a link to this lecture to someone"},{"startTime":98.825,"endTime":99.705,"body":"you think would benefit."},{"startTime":100.085,"endTime":103.968,"body":"And if you haven't already, click the follow or subscribe button from wherever you are"},{"startTime":103.968,"endTime":104.745,"body":"listening right now."},{"startTime":105.845,"endTime":107.385,"body":"Now, let's get back to the lecture."},{"startTime":110.075,"endTime":113.82,"body":"Um, because, and not, because I don't think six degrees of warming would be really"},{"startTime":113.82,"endTime":117.565,"body":"bad, um, but because I just think it's entirely moot, I don't think we'll get"},{"startTime":117.565,"endTime":117.815,"body":"there."},{"startTime":118.035,"endTime":123.505,"body":"Uh, I think the, the, the, the things that worry me about climate change are,"},{"startTime":123.505,"endTime":128.975,"body":"are not only the, the, the frictions that it's likely to induce in the world"},{"startTime":128.975,"endTime":134.445,"body":"as we sort of, if we carry on as we're going and steam past two"},{"startTime":134.445,"endTime":139.916,"body":"degrees, um, and also the potential destabilization of more panic stricken measures that might be"},{"startTime":139.916,"endTime":141.375,"body":"taken to stop it."},{"startTime":141.555,"endTime":144.615,"body":"Um, and those are the two things I want to talk about, uh, today."},{"startTime":144.955,"endTime":150.642,"body":"So, um, both the risks of just allowing warming to continue the risks, the geopolitical"},{"startTime":150.642,"endTime":154.055,"body":"risks of, um, measures like turning down the sun."},{"startTime":154.355,"endTime":161.135,"body":"So, um, so solar geoengineering, um, and finally probably more controversially for many people."},{"startTime":161.335,"endTime":167.035,"body":"I also think many people agree that solar geoengineering is a bad idea because of"},{"startTime":167.035,"endTime":168.935,"body":"its potential impact on geopolitics."},{"startTime":169.315,"endTime":172.615,"body":"But I think we have to look at all climate policies through the same lens."},{"startTime":172.675,"endTime":177.873,"body":"We have to ask ourselves of all the measures people are proposing to take, uh,"},{"startTime":177.873,"endTime":183.072,"body":"on climate change, which are the ones that, you know, are like, run the risk"},{"startTime":183.072,"endTime":184.805,"body":"of actually destabilizing the world."},{"startTime":185.005,"endTime":188.865,"body":"'cause one of the things we've learned, if we not learned anything over the past"},{"startTime":188.865,"endTime":192.725,"body":"few years, WW were rather better at killing each other than, than mother nature is."},{"startTime":192.985,"endTime":197.961,"body":"So, um, I think one of the things that I think we all need to"},{"startTime":197.961,"endTime":202.937,"body":"think about is if it's true that, and I believe it is true, that, um,"},{"startTime":202.937,"endTime":207.913,"body":"the, the risks, the geopolitical risks of some climate solutions may actually not be worth"},{"startTime":207.913,"endTime":208.245,"body":"it."},{"startTime":208.265,"endTime":211.405,"body":"And I think solar geoengineering is one of them that's just not worth the risk."},{"startTime":212.185,"endTime":219.285,"body":"Um, then it, that the, the corollary of that must be that there must be"},{"startTime":219.285,"endTime":226.385,"body":"some level of warming that it's actually worth settling for to avoid the potential conflict"},{"startTime":226.385,"endTime":227.805,"body":"of eliminating it."},{"startTime":227.945,"endTime":231.428,"body":"And that's where people get, oh, really, you are sort of saying, but there must"},{"startTime":231.428,"endTime":232.125,"body":"be a payoff."},{"startTime":232.125,"endTime":233.125,"body":"There must be a trade off there."},{"startTime":233.625,"endTime":235.685,"body":"Um, and, and I think we do need to think about that."},{"startTime":235.745,"endTime":240.538,"body":"And that's the sort of thing I want to, to talk about, um, in this"},{"startTime":240.538,"endTime":245.332,"body":"lecture and in particular, sort of more precipitate scenarios for phasing out fossil fuels border"},{"startTime":245.332,"endTime":250.126,"body":"on what you might call social geoengineering, which would be potentially very challenging and destabilizing,"},{"startTime":250.126,"endTime":251.405,"body":"but for the world."},{"startTime":251.585,"endTime":253.485,"body":"And by the way, not just for the world."},{"startTime":253.825,"endTime":259.305,"body":"Um, I think we, we are entering a phase where in Britain, um, climate change"},{"startTime":259.305,"endTime":263.325,"body":"is, you know, for whatever reason becoming an increasingly divisive issue."},{"startTime":263.905,"endTime":265.685,"body":"Um, and our people are pushing that."},{"startTime":265.785,"endTime":270.725,"body":"And, you know, that's, that's, um, the reform party on the line there, I'm sure."},{"startTime":271.025,"endTime":275.75,"body":"Um, and, uh, so, so, so, uh, we are facing the, the, the, the challenge"},{"startTime":275.75,"endTime":279.845,"body":"of people of this becoming a much more divisive issue here as well."},{"startTime":280.705,"endTime":285.881,"body":"Um, so, you know, the overarching, uh, point of, of this lecture, the sort of"},{"startTime":285.881,"endTime":291.058,"body":"three, three ways in which climate change could trigger, uh, a global conflict, uh, we"},{"startTime":291.058,"endTime":294.165,"body":"have unmitigated impact, so we just let it go."},{"startTime":294.465,"endTime":296.285,"body":"And that I'll talk about that."},{"startTime":296.615,"endTime":302.608,"body":"We'll talk about solar geoengineering attempting to control the weather, and we'll talk about poor"},{"startTime":302.608,"endTime":306.205,"body":"mitigated the potential side effects of poor mitigation policies."},{"startTime":306.425,"endTime":308.205,"body":"Um, that's probably the most controversial question."},{"startTime":309.105,"endTime":314.577,"body":"So as far as you know, the, the geopolitical consequences of just letting the world"},{"startTime":314.577,"endTime":320.05,"body":"warm, um, I thought I'd start from this, um, very, um, well-known diagram from the"},{"startTime":320.05,"endTime":325.523,"body":"intergovernmental panel on climate change, this is the way they represent the risks of different"},{"startTime":325.523,"endTime":330.996,"body":"levels of warming, and by and large warming, does the, the physical risks of climate"},{"startTime":330.996,"endTime":334.645,"body":"change do scale with the amount of warming we've got?"},{"startTime":335.305,"endTime":339.764,"body":"And the transition here from sort of yellow to red is from, uh, uh, moderate"},{"startTime":339.764,"endTime":341.845,"body":"risk to high risk and so on."},{"startTime":342.065,"endTime":347.195,"body":"And you can see by the way, that, that this is, that the narrow, um,"},{"startTime":347.195,"endTime":352.325,"body":"columns are from, uh, are the, the fifth assessment report that was back in 2014."},{"startTime":352.865,"endTime":355.005,"body":"The broader columns are from the latest assessment."},{"startTime":355.385,"endTime":360.163,"body":"And you'll notice that one of the shifts in the climate community and research community"},{"startTime":360.163,"endTime":364.942,"body":"has been to, to, to bring forward the point at which we think there's higher"},{"startTime":364.942,"endTime":368.765,"body":"risks to the various reasons of concern that the IPCC has identified."},{"startTime":369.025,"endTime":371.045,"body":"Um, people do often ask me, is it worse than we thought?"},{"startTime":371.065,"endTime":376.098,"body":"And the answer at the sort of global level, at the kind of modeling the"},{"startTime":376.098,"endTime":381.131,"body":"overall climate response to rising greenhouse gases, the kind of thing that I do, um,"},{"startTime":381.131,"endTime":386.165,"body":"the answer is not really, it's sort of evolving pretty much exactly as we expected."},{"startTime":386.745,"endTime":390.75,"body":"But when it comes to the impacts of the warming we're seeing, we're tending to"},{"startTime":390.75,"endTime":392.085,"body":"see these impacts appearing earlier."},{"startTime":392.625,"endTime":397.398,"body":"And, and, you know, e each successive revision of the intergovernmental panel on climate change"},{"startTime":397.398,"endTime":402.172,"body":"reports has tended to bring forward the points at which they're saying there's, uh, high"},{"startTime":402.172,"endTime":403.445,"body":"risks to different systems."},{"startTime":403.945,"endTime":405.965,"body":"And they classify this in these various ways."},{"startTime":405.965,"endTime":409.325,"body":"And so, um, you'll notice there's, there's five reasons con concern."},{"startTime":409.325,"endTime":411.765,"body":"They talk about unique and threatened systems."},{"startTime":412.025,"endTime":418.85,"body":"That's, um, the Arctic ecosystems, uh, like, or, or coral reefs, ecosystems that are particularly,"},{"startTime":418.85,"endTime":421.125,"body":"uh, impacted by climate change."},{"startTime":421.705,"endTime":423.725,"body":"Um, extreme weather, we know what that is."},{"startTime":423.985,"endTime":426.525,"body":"Um, uh, distribution of impacts, we'll come back to that."},{"startTime":426.905,"endTime":431.695,"body":"Global aggregate impacts are, when we're talking about, say, the impact on the entire world"},{"startTime":431.695,"endTime":436.485,"body":"economy, sort of what's the overall aggregate impact of climate change on the world economy."},{"startTime":436.905,"endTime":440.446,"body":"Um, and large scale singular events are sort of things we were talking about in"},{"startTime":440.446,"endTime":443.988,"body":"the last lecture, um, shutdown of the Thermo hairline, circulation collapse of the West Antarctic"},{"startTime":443.988,"endTime":445.405,"body":"ice sheet, that sort of thing."},{"startTime":445.945,"endTime":452.19,"body":"So I'm generally speaking, um, if you sort of ask what people think they're concerned"},{"startTime":452.19,"endTime":458.435,"body":"about, um, in climate change, it's, you know, the unique and threatened systems, you know,"},{"startTime":458.435,"endTime":459.685,"body":"dying polar bears."},{"startTime":459.785,"endTime":463.805,"body":"Um, if you, um, speak out, well, you can produce postcards that you can send"},{"startTime":463.805,"endTime":466.485,"body":"to your friends to get them worried about climate change."},{"startTime":466.545,"endTime":468.685,"body":"And these are the sort of things, but I thought it was interesting."},{"startTime":468.685,"endTime":472.205,"body":"The, the topics they've picked out, hashtag speak out has picked out."},{"startTime":472.745,"endTime":479.351,"body":"Um, and, uh, uh, you know, they picked out, uh, obviously threats to the arctic"},{"startTime":479.351,"endTime":485.958,"body":"threats to low-lying, uh, nations, the Maldives, I believe this is, um, extreme weather, wildfire"},{"startTime":485.958,"endTime":492.565,"body":"risk there, large scale singular events like collapse of ice sheets, um, more extreme weather."},{"startTime":492.915,"endTime":495.125,"body":"It's sort of, those are the three people focus on."},{"startTime":495.465,"endTime":500.351,"body":"And of course, economists are worried about the aggregate impacts on the world economy, but"},{"startTime":500.351,"endTime":505.238,"body":"the reason we concern that I think we are actually most concerned about is not,"},{"startTime":505.238,"endTime":507.845,"body":"is rather mysterious number three, distribution of impacts."},{"startTime":508.545,"endTime":514.72,"body":"And what it means, what it, what it's defined as in the IPCC report is"},{"startTime":514.72,"endTime":520.895,"body":"the risks and impacts that disproportionately affect particular groups due to uneven distribution of physical"},{"startTime":520.895,"endTime":523.365,"body":"climate change, hazards, exposure or vulnerability."},{"startTime":523.905,"endTime":529.336,"body":"And this is the one I'm most concerned about, because back to the theme of"},{"startTime":529.336,"endTime":534.405,"body":"this nature, it's the one that has the most potential to impact on geopolitics."},{"startTime":535.185,"endTime":540.202,"body":"But to explain why I think other people are most concerned about it too, whatever"},{"startTime":540.202,"endTime":545.22,"body":"they might say, and whatever the, whatever postcards they might send each other, um, I"},{"startTime":545.22,"endTime":550.238,"body":"think this is the one which ultimately gets people, you know, gets people, uh, anxious"},{"startTime":550.238,"endTime":555.255,"body":"about climate change, is these, these, uh, emerging injustices, uh, in the climate signal we're"},{"startTime":555.255,"endTime":555.925,"body":"seeing already."},{"startTime":556.185,"endTime":560.48,"body":"And the reason I think this, I can sort of sum it up, um, with,"},{"startTime":560.48,"endTime":562.485,"body":"with, um, actually sort of three things."},{"startTime":562.665,"endTime":571.125,"body":"Uh, John rules a, uh, American philosopher, um, disaster movies and the People's Postcode Lottery."},{"startTime":571.705,"endTime":572.965,"body":"So these things are linked."},{"startTime":573.705,"endTime":579.041,"body":"Um, John Rules, um, was, uh, an American philosopher, um, who, uh, in the early"},{"startTime":579.041,"endTime":584.377,"body":"seventies produced a theory of justice, which was based on the premise that you had"},{"startTime":584.377,"endTime":589.713,"body":"to imagine organizing a, a just society was one in which you would deem it"},{"startTime":589.713,"endTime":595.049,"body":"as just even if you didn't know who you were going to be in that"},{"startTime":595.049,"endTime":595.405,"body":"society."},{"startTime":596.145,"endTime":599.129,"body":"So he introduced the idea of a veil of ignorance that you didn't know who"},{"startTime":599.129,"endTime":599.925,"body":"you were gonna be."},{"startTime":600.305,"endTime":605.547,"body":"So how would you want society to be organized without knowing which member of that"},{"startTime":605.547,"endTime":607.645,"body":"society you were going to become?"},{"startTime":608.675,"endTime":611.965,"body":"That was the sort of thought experience, and it has various consequences of this."},{"startTime":612.225,"endTime":616.822,"body":"And one of the key consequences was the, it it, it highlights and it works"},{"startTime":616.822,"endTime":621.419,"body":"because, as a philosophy, because I mean, people liked it, people adopted it, and a"},{"startTime":621.419,"endTime":622.645,"body":"lot of people cited."},{"startTime":623.385,"endTime":631.427,"body":"And, um, one of the consequences of John, of Ian philosophy is a strong aversion"},{"startTime":631.427,"endTime":637.325,"body":"to individuals losing out, specifically losing out relative to their neighbors."},{"startTime":637.985,"endTime":643.59,"body":"No, nobody would, no, nobody likes that prospect of, of maybe being suddenly much worse"},{"startTime":643.59,"endTime":645.085,"body":"off than your neighbor."},{"startTime":646.585,"endTime":651.569,"body":"And which is, I think it's the, I think it relates to the way we"},{"startTime":651.569,"endTime":656.553,"body":"react to disaster movies is that the, the, the, the, the, the disaster that occurs"},{"startTime":656.553,"endTime":661.205,"body":"in a disaster movie occurs to everybody, and people find this almost strangely reassuring."},{"startTime":661.425,"endTime":663.808,"body":"Uh, yeah, it's the end of the world, but you know, every, you know, it"},{"startTime":663.808,"endTime":664.285,"body":"happens to everybody."},{"startTime":664.605,"endTime":668.355,"body":"I think, what was the, the one exception to this, by the way, which was"},{"startTime":668.355,"endTime":672.105,"body":"a very, very clever movie, don't Look up, uh, of course, the, they kept the,"},{"startTime":672.105,"endTime":675.855,"body":"they kept the, the, the ironies going all the way through that movie, and they"},{"startTime":675.855,"endTime":679.605,"body":"had all the hyper rich people went off in a spacecraft frozen at the end."},{"startTime":679.605,"endTime":682.165,"body":"Sorry, I'm, I'm spoiling this spoiler alert here."},{"startTime":682.465,"endTime":685.682,"body":"But you know, they, they, they kept up the fact that there were, the unfairness"},{"startTime":685.682,"endTime":688.685,"body":"continued, you know, even all the way through to the end of the movie."},{"startTime":689.345,"endTime":692.67,"body":"Um, why do I think the People's Postcode Lottery isn't, well, I get exercised by"},{"startTime":692.67,"endTime":695.995,"body":"this kind of thing because, um, so it is not that relevant, but I do,"},{"startTime":695.995,"endTime":697.325,"body":"it does make me very angry."},{"startTime":697.545,"endTime":701.2,"body":"So the People's Postcode lottery, I dunno if you, if you, uh, if you follow"},{"startTime":701.2,"endTime":704.855,"body":"this sort of thing, but it's designed that if, if, so here's lots of happy"},{"startTime":704.855,"endTime":708.51,"body":"people in Altham, um, who've all won, you know, 10 grand each because they played"},{"startTime":708.51,"endTime":709.485,"body":"the People's Postcode Lottery."},{"startTime":710.025,"endTime":715.125,"body":"Um, what it doesn't show you is the other people of Altham whose neighbors are"},{"startTime":715.125,"endTime":716.485,"body":"all annoyingly smug, okay?"},{"startTime":716.865,"endTime":721.005,"body":"So the way the people, it's, it's, it's, they're actually exploiting rules and philosophy."},{"startTime":721.235,"endTime":725.139,"body":"They may not say this on their website, but what they're doing is they're frightening"},{"startTime":725.139,"endTime":729.043,"body":"people into thinking you are gonna be worse off than your neighbors if you don't"},{"startTime":729.043,"endTime":730.605,"body":"buy a people's postcode lottery ticket."},{"startTime":731.075,"endTime":734.445,"body":"It's, it's blackmail of the poor at the lowest level."},{"startTime":734.625,"endTime":736.645,"body":"And I cannot understand why it hasn't been banned."},{"startTime":737.065,"endTime":743.448,"body":"Anyway, um, the problem is with, with climate change, with, with what's happening is it's,"},{"startTime":743.448,"endTime":744.725,"body":"it's emerge already."},{"startTime":744.855,"endTime":749.95,"body":"We're seeing very uneven, even at relatively modest levels of warming, you know, up to"},{"startTime":749.95,"endTime":755.045,"body":"two degrees, we're seeing very uneven impacts of climate change on countries around the world."},{"startTime":755.665,"endTime":759.858,"body":"And, uh, we did some work in the buildup to the, uh, IPCC 1.5 degrees"},{"startTime":759.858,"endTime":764.052,"body":"report, looking at the economic impact of, um, one and a half and two degrees"},{"startTime":764.052,"endTime":768.245,"body":"of warming relative to where we're, where we were at, which is one degree of"},{"startTime":768.245,"endTime":768.805,"body":"warming today."},{"startTime":769.505,"endTime":773.942,"body":"And, you know, um, the, this was, this is work actually, which, uh, Felix Preis"},{"startTime":773.942,"endTime":776.605,"body":"led in the, uh, economics department in, in Oxford."},{"startTime":776.795,"endTime":780.005,"body":"What what I found was really interesting about this work was it was entirely empirical."},{"startTime":780.025,"endTime":787.131,"body":"He used empirical relationships between productivity and temperature, um, in, in different countries around the"},{"startTime":787.131,"endTime":787.605,"body":"world."},{"startTime":787.825,"endTime":792.165,"body":"He managed to show that a very clear, geographically distinct pattern."},{"startTime":792.385,"endTime":796.228,"body":"You know, hot countries lose out, cold countries do well, um, out of the climate"},{"startTime":796.228,"endTime":796.485,"body":"change."},{"startTime":796.665,"endTime":800.806,"body":"And by and large, if you also look at, uh, you know, so you can"},{"startTime":800.806,"endTime":804.947,"body":"see that, that there's, it's, it's primarily countries in the deep tropics, which typically also"},{"startTime":804.947,"endTime":809.088,"body":"countries, um, that have not contributed a huge amount per head of population to climate"},{"startTime":809.088,"endTime":809.365,"body":"change."},{"startTime":809.365,"endTime":812.725,"body":"They're the ones who are most impacted by climate change to date."},{"startTime":813.345,"endTime":817.437,"body":"Um, and of course, um, if we, you know, go and look at the individual"},{"startTime":817.437,"endTime":821.53,"body":"countries, you know, at the top of the list you've got, you know, Finland, Russia"},{"startTime":821.53,"endTime":824.805,"body":"and so on, doing relatively well out of modest levels of warming."},{"startTime":824.945,"endTime":828.204,"body":"And at the other end of the list, you've got, you know, um, Maia, Mali"},{"startTime":828.204,"endTime":829.725,"body":"and so on down at the bottom."},{"startTime":830.285,"endTime":830.445,"body":"Interesting."},{"startTime":830.445,"endTime":832.925,"body":"You can see United a Arab Emirates there."},{"startTime":833.185,"endTime":837.685,"body":"That's of course, because this is looking at the impacts of the warming, um, on,"},{"startTime":837.685,"endTime":842.185,"body":"on these countries, not the impacts of, not the economic benefits of the things that"},{"startTime":842.185,"endTime":843.085,"body":"cause the warming."},{"startTime":843.085,"endTime":846.494,"body":"So you may be slightly surprised to see the United Arab Arab Emirates there, but"},{"startTime":846.494,"endTime":848.085,"body":"you can sort of see, see why."},{"startTime":848.705,"endTime":853.122,"body":"And of course, because we've got these very uneven impacts of warming that is compounded"},{"startTime":853.122,"endTime":857.245,"body":"by the fact that we have equally uneven, even more uneven contributions to warming."},{"startTime":857.705,"endTime":862.863,"body":"Um, and the fact that the richest 1%, uh, of the world's population is responsible"},{"startTime":862.863,"endTime":868.022,"body":"for, um, the same emissions as in, in, in, in, in consumption terms, is responsible"},{"startTime":868.022,"endTime":871.805,"body":"for the same emissions as more than half the world's population."},{"startTime":872.265,"endTime":877.423,"body":"Um, so that sort of extraordinary unevenness of both the causes of climate change and"},{"startTime":877.423,"endTime":882.582,"body":"the impacts of climate change is something that one, one fears, if we just carry"},{"startTime":882.582,"endTime":886.365,"body":"on as we are, is gonna fuel evermore resentment and instability."},{"startTime":886.365,"endTime":891.869,"body":"And in fact, when you, you know, the, the, the, the, the, the conversations at"},{"startTime":891.869,"endTime":897.373,"body":"cops, um, are, are in fact, I find remarkably civilized when you think about what's"},{"startTime":897.373,"endTime":902.878,"body":"going on and what, and what is, you know, what the negotiations are over, um,"},{"startTime":902.878,"endTime":908.382,"body":"have, it's, it's, it's actually, it's often quite a, a amazing how, how polite and,"},{"startTime":908.382,"endTime":913.886,"body":"um, uh, yeah, as I say civilized that the developing countries who are really being"},{"startTime":913.886,"endTime":919.391,"body":"badly impacted by climate change are, which is why, of course, I find this sort"},{"startTime":919.391,"endTime":924.895,"body":"of mantra of many energy companies, uh, since, since the last lecture, by the way,"},{"startTime":924.895,"endTime":928.565,"body":"I had an interesting experience of going to SRA week."},{"startTime":928.945,"endTime":929.805,"body":"You probably haven't heard of this."},{"startTime":929.825,"endTime":934.102,"body":"I'm sure you've all heard of cops, but what you probably didn't know is four"},{"startTime":934.102,"endTime":937.525,"body":"months after Cop, there's an anti-cop, which happens in Houston, of course."},{"startTime":938.225,"endTime":941.402,"body":"Um, and the fossil fuel industry gathers together and, you know, basically decides where to"},{"startTime":941.402,"endTime":942.885,"body":"drill next and that sort of thing."},{"startTime":943.265,"endTime":947.017,"body":"Um, and, uh, they like to invite academics along to talk to them, but they,"},{"startTime":947.017,"endTime":950.769,"body":"there's a lot of this sort of stuff was being talked about, oh yeah, we"},{"startTime":950.769,"endTime":954.521,"body":"have to keep drilling, we have to keep producing because, you know, otherwise the world's"},{"startTime":954.521,"endTime":958.274,"body":"poor will, will, uh, miss out on, on our, on, on, on, on the, the"},{"startTime":958.274,"endTime":959.525,"body":"wonders, uh, of fossil fuels."},{"startTime":959.665,"endTime":963.721,"body":"And of course, you really, I mean, the people benefiting from continuous of fossil fuels"},{"startTime":963.721,"endTime":965.885,"body":"are by and large not the world's poor."},{"startTime":966.345,"endTime":971.566,"body":"Um, so, um, and of course, in, in closer to home, uh, this is a,"},{"startTime":971.566,"endTime":976.787,"body":"a very common mantra of, uh, outfits like net zero watch the, um, group that's,"},{"startTime":976.787,"endTime":980.965,"body":"uh, sort of taken over from the, um, global warming policy foundation."},{"startTime":980.965,"endTime":984.679,"body":"And they're always sort of full of how green taxes and so on are gonna"},{"startTime":984.679,"endTime":986.165,"body":"hurt some, the, the, the poor."},{"startTime":986.545,"endTime":989.986,"body":"Um, and yeah, of course you need to be careful that, um, climate measures don't"},{"startTime":989.986,"endTime":993.428,"body":"hurt the poor, and it's something which we and in Britain, I think need to"},{"startTime":993.428,"endTime":994.805,"body":"put a lot more attention to."},{"startTime":995.385,"endTime":999.285,"body":"Um, but, uh, uh, the, the solution to that is obviously not, not to have"},{"startTime":999.285,"endTime":999.805,"body":"any climate."},{"startTime":999.805,"endTime":1002.805,"body":"Well, their solution is, so you don't have any climate policies."},{"startTime":1002.925,"endTime":1006.791,"body":"I mean, no, you can design your climate policies so that they don't adversely affect,"},{"startTime":1006.791,"endTime":1007.565,"body":"um, the poor."},{"startTime":1008.185,"endTime":1011.879,"body":"Um, and you know, if you just decide, you know, if you listen to net"},{"startTime":1011.879,"endTime":1015.573,"body":"zero watch and decide, well, it's just not worth having any climate policies 'cause they"},{"startTime":1015.573,"endTime":1016.805,"body":"might adversely affect the poor."},{"startTime":1017.265,"endTime":1022.859,"body":"Um, you end up, you know, with essentially climate inaction, uh, which even, you know,"},{"startTime":1022.859,"endTime":1028.453,"body":"hard hardheaded, uh, folks like the, uh, US National Intelligence Assessment, um, you know, have,"},{"startTime":1028.453,"endTime":1034.047,"body":"uh, consider that, that, that, you know, this is actually one of the highest risks"},{"startTime":1034.047,"endTime":1036.285,"body":"they, they see to US securities."},{"startTime":1036.285,"endTime":1040.125,"body":"So these are, these are sort of military planners taking it, um, very seriously."},{"startTime":1040.265,"endTime":1046.207,"body":"And it's interesting that the, the perception of insufficient contributions to emission reductions is at"},{"startTime":1046.207,"endTime":1050.565,"body":"the top of their list of geopolitical risks in this report."},{"startTime":1051.105,"endTime":1056.345,"body":"So it's the idea that all those red countries in that map who are most"},{"startTime":1056.345,"endTime":1061.585,"body":"adversely affected by climate change and by and large, have the population which is down"},{"startTime":1061.585,"endTime":1066.825,"body":"at the bottom of that, um, shaped, uh, uh, that, um, uh, uh, uh, uh,"},{"startTime":1066.825,"endTime":1072.066,"body":"will sort of increasingly become increasingly resentful of the countries that are doing well outta"},{"startTime":1072.066,"endTime":1072.765,"body":"climate change."},{"startTime":1073.665,"endTime":1081.27,"body":"So it's, this is absolutely not, so worrying about geopolitics is absolutely not a reason"},{"startTime":1081.27,"endTime":1083.805,"body":"for climate action, climate inaction."},{"startTime":1084.705,"endTime":1089.823,"body":"Um, but at the same time, we have to worry about certain kinds of climate"},{"startTime":1089.823,"endTime":1090.165,"body":"action."},{"startTime":1091.105,"endTime":1096.669,"body":"Um, and the one I now want to talk about, um, for, for, uh, the"},{"startTime":1096.669,"endTime":1102.233,"body":"next part of this lecture is this idea of intervening explicitly in the climate to"},{"startTime":1102.233,"endTime":1106.685,"body":"effectively turn down the sun, um, in order to cool the planet."},{"startTime":1106.755,"endTime":1110.836,"body":"This is an idea which is, is out there, it's being discussed, it's being discussed"},{"startTime":1110.836,"endTime":1111.925,"body":"more and more actually."},{"startTime":1111.945,"endTime":1116.445,"body":"And, um, the UK government has even, um, sort of seems over the past year"},{"startTime":1116.445,"endTime":1120.945,"body":"or so to have sort of changed its mind and decided to actually start funding"},{"startTime":1120.945,"endTime":1122.445,"body":"some research in this space."},{"startTime":1123.145,"endTime":1124.805,"body":"Um, it's gone back a long way."},{"startTime":1124.805,"endTime":1126.805,"body":"Weather control was big in the fifties."},{"startTime":1127.585,"endTime":1130.758,"body":"Um, I love the fact that back in the 1950s, you always put a tie"},{"startTime":1130.758,"endTime":1133.085,"body":"on before you destroyed the world, you know, it's like \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":1133.625,"endTime":1137.367,"body":"Um, but anyway, so let's just go through sort of these, um, uh, the ideas"},{"startTime":1137.367,"endTime":1138.365,"body":"that are out there."},{"startTime":1138.905,"endTime":1145.005,"body":"Um, one option is to enhance the reflectivity of the surface."},{"startTime":1145.905,"endTime":1151.312,"body":"Um, and this is, uh, uh, there is actually a research group in Cambridge, um,"},{"startTime":1151.312,"endTime":1156.719,"body":"that has got funding to go and, um, pump water onto the surface of sea"},{"startTime":1156.719,"endTime":1161.045,"body":"ice in order to have that water freeze and enhance the reflectivity."},{"startTime":1161.105,"endTime":1166.245,"body":"And there's, so they're actually aiming to intervene, um, to try and refreeze the Arctic."},{"startTime":1166.625,"endTime":1169.765,"body":"Um, yeah, okay."},{"startTime":1169.945,"endTime":1173.245,"body":"Not, not, not, uh, not a research group I'm a member of."},{"startTime":1173.245,"endTime":1173.645,"body":"There we are."},{"startTime":1173.645,"endTime":1175.085,"body":"But, um, uh, anyway, an interest."},{"startTime":1175.155,"endTime":1179.845,"body":"It's, you know, we, we, we do have active active research programs in this space."},{"startTime":1180.705,"endTime":1187.827,"body":"Um, a another, uh, another, um, uh, idea is, um, to increase the brightness of"},{"startTime":1187.827,"endTime":1193.525,"body":"low clouds, um, over the oceans, again, to reflect away more sunlight."},{"startTime":1193.985,"endTime":1197.367,"body":"Um, that's one of the interventions that we kind of incidentally have quite a lot"},{"startTime":1197.367,"endTime":1200.525,"body":"of in, in information on already, which we'll come back to in a minute."},{"startTime":1201.225,"endTime":1206.696,"body":"Um, number three, um, increasing the, um, reflectivity of the stratosphere by putting material into"},{"startTime":1206.696,"endTime":1208.885,"body":"the stratosphere to reflect away sunlight."},{"startTime":1209.115,"endTime":1211.485,"body":"This is the sort of synthetic volcano idea."},{"startTime":1212.185,"endTime":1218.431,"body":"Um, finally we get onto the more sort of, um, uh, well gonna say farfetched"},{"startTime":1218.431,"endTime":1223.845,"body":"or at least certainly expensive options like space-based, um, uh, mirrors or sunshades."},{"startTime":1224.305,"endTime":1229.685,"body":"Um, and, um, deliberately decreasing the amount of high altitude sru."},{"startTime":1229.945,"endTime":1235.167,"body":"Um, so, um, you are, you are all familiar with contraras and the arguments that"},{"startTime":1235.167,"endTime":1237.605,"body":"contraras may be contributing to global warming."},{"startTime":1237.945,"endTime":1241.94,"body":"Um, but there is an argument that you could actually try and go, go sort"},{"startTime":1241.94,"endTime":1243.805,"body":"of into a sort of anticon trail."},{"startTime":1243.825,"endTime":1247.307,"body":"You could actually try and intervene to try and get rid of natural sru in"},{"startTime":1247.307,"endTime":1249.165,"body":"order to try and reduce its warming effect."},{"startTime":1250.265,"endTime":1251.805,"body":"Um, all of these ideas are out there."},{"startTime":1251.805,"endTime":1252.725,"body":"They've been out there for some time."},{"startTime":1252.725,"endTime":1255.405,"body":"We quite often see artists' impressions like this one."},{"startTime":1256.185,"endTime":1258.445,"body":"Um, can anybody spot what's wrong?"},{"startTime":1258.625,"endTime":1263.238,"body":"Uh, fortunately it's an artist's impression, or some engineers would've got That's right, yeah, the"},{"startTime":1263.238,"endTime":1267.852,"body":"sun's over there, guys, you know, so, okay, so, so whoever put that mirror up,"},{"startTime":1267.852,"endTime":1270.005,"body":"uh, didn't, didn't really do anything anyway."},{"startTime":1270.265,"endTime":1275.541,"body":"Um, but, uh, but more seriously, um, there are options out there which we know"},{"startTime":1275.541,"endTime":1276.245,"body":"would work."},{"startTime":1276.465,"endTime":1280.41,"body":"Um, and the reason we know they work is 'cause we, we, we have sort"},{"startTime":1280.41,"endTime":1281.725,"body":"of accidental experiments going on."},{"startTime":1282.065,"endTime":1286.485,"body":"So this is a picture of the Pacific, um, cloud cover over the Pacific."},{"startTime":1286.745,"endTime":1291.475,"body":"And if you look carefully, particularly if you use a machine learning algorithm to, to,"},{"startTime":1291.475,"endTime":1296.205,"body":"to spot them for you, you can spot all these tracks in the clouds, okay?"},{"startTime":1296.905,"endTime":1297.405,"body":"You see them."},{"startTime":1297.585,"endTime":1299.965,"body":"The, the purple is just highlighting the ship tracks."},{"startTime":1300.265,"endTime":1305.215,"body":"And these are, are, uh, the, the additional cloud that's generated as a result of"},{"startTime":1305.215,"endTime":1310.165,"body":"the pollution that's coming outta the, um, smoke stacks of, of, uh, the, the engine"},{"startTime":1310.165,"endTime":1311.485,"body":"exhausts, uh, of ships."},{"startTime":1312.585,"endTime":1317.931,"body":"And, um, we are actually performing an experiment at the moment because just a couple"},{"startTime":1317.931,"endTime":1322.565,"body":"of years ago, we introduced new low sulfur standards for marine bunker fuel."},{"startTime":1323.425,"endTime":1328.357,"body":"So the, um, uh, and we also had an interesting experiment where we had a"},{"startTime":1328.357,"endTime":1331.645,"body":"global pandemic, and that also reduced shipping quite a lot."},{"startTime":1332.065,"endTime":1336.087,"body":"Um, but we're seeing, so the global pandemic was fortunately only temporary, but we, the,"},{"startTime":1336.087,"endTime":1337.965,"body":"the marine bunker fuel rules are persisting."},{"startTime":1338.505,"endTime":1343.727,"body":"And so we're actually able to see the impact of a reduction in the pollution"},{"startTime":1343.727,"endTime":1346.165,"body":"in, in marine pollution on low cloud."},{"startTime":1346.225,"endTime":1350.735,"body":"So we're actually seeing, um, some, uh, impact already, um, of the, and, and, and"},{"startTime":1350.735,"endTime":1355.245,"body":"in fact, I was just hearing last week, um, I think it's still under review"},{"startTime":1355.245,"endTime":1359.755,"body":"this paper, but colleagues, uh, uh, in, in the us, um, have actually been think"},{"startTime":1359.755,"endTime":1364.265,"body":"they can detect even a, a, a, a consequence of this in the temperature record"},{"startTime":1364.265,"endTime":1368.775,"body":"that they're actually sort of seeing a little bit of, we've seen a couple of,"},{"startTime":1368.775,"endTime":1373.285,"body":"as you, as you all know, this past year has been a very warm one."},{"startTime":1373.505,"endTime":1377.633,"body":"And maybe some of that warming, I wouldn't push the boat out as to how"},{"startTime":1377.633,"endTime":1381.762,"body":"much, but a little bit of what that warming may have been contributed by the"},{"startTime":1381.762,"endTime":1383.965,"body":"fact that we've cleaned up, um, ship tracks."},{"startTime":1384.345,"endTime":1385.085,"body":"That's a good thing."},{"startTime":1385.545,"endTime":1389.205,"body":"It was bad pollution over the ocean coming from this high sulfur fuel."},{"startTime":1389.505,"endTime":1395.177,"body":"Um, but as a result, um, we've, we've, uh, uh, we've reduced the amount of"},{"startTime":1395.177,"endTime":1400.849,"body":"low, uh, bright low cloud, um, in the, uh, bright low cloud in, in o"},{"startTime":1400.849,"endTime":1405.765,"body":"over the oceans, which has the result of, of actually raising global temperatures."},{"startTime":1405.765,"endTime":1409.546,"body":"So obviously the obvious implication is, well, wait a minute, maybe we could just put"},{"startTime":1409.546,"endTime":1413.327,"body":"the sulfur back or maybe put something back into the marine fuel that's that's not"},{"startTime":1413.327,"endTime":1416.605,"body":"quite as nasty as sulfur, um, and, uh, brighten up those clouds again."},{"startTime":1416.745,"endTime":1419.725,"body":"So, you know, yes, you could do that."},{"startTime":1419.965,"endTime":1424.499,"body":"I mean, this is, this is the point here is that, you know, we do"},{"startTime":1424.499,"endTime":1429.034,"body":"know that this kind of intervention is possible, and therefore, you know, solar geoengineering could,"},{"startTime":1429.034,"endTime":1432.965,"body":"if you implemented it, it could actually have an impact on peak warming."},{"startTime":1432.965,"endTime":1437.075,"body":"And this is the kind of scenario that people like to talk about, uh, where"},{"startTime":1437.075,"endTime":1438.445,"body":"you've got warming heading up."},{"startTime":1438.545,"endTime":1443.106,"body":"Um, here's, this is a, one of the figures from the 1.5 degrees report, um,"},{"startTime":1443.106,"endTime":1447.668,"body":"and, uh, sort of imagine a scenario in which temperatures are heading towards 1.5 degrees,"},{"startTime":1447.668,"endTime":1450.405,"body":"and that pink line is 1.5 degrees line there."},{"startTime":1451.025,"endTime":1452.805,"body":"Um, you are, you are reducing emissions."},{"startTime":1452.805,"endTime":1454.045,"body":"You can't reduce them fast enough."},{"startTime":1454.625,"endTime":1460.675,"body":"So you, you, you realize you're going over 1.5 degrees, you deploy, um, a sort"},{"startTime":1460.675,"endTime":1461.885,"body":"of geoengineering scenario."},{"startTime":1461.945,"endTime":1467.169,"body":"You pump lots of, um, this, the scenario here is the, the stratospheric injection one,"},{"startTime":1467.169,"endTime":1472.394,"body":"you, you pump lots of material into the stratosphere, um, and you reduce the incoming,"},{"startTime":1472.394,"endTime":1477.618,"body":"uh, radiation by, you know, just the amount, just the right amount, um, to sort"},{"startTime":1477.618,"endTime":1480.405,"body":"of shave the peak off the global temperatures."},{"startTime":1480.425,"endTime":1484.381,"body":"And this is, this is sort of suggested as a good, good, good thing to"},{"startTime":1484.381,"endTime":1484.645,"body":"do."},{"startTime":1484.705,"endTime":1488.294,"body":"And it's even actually, we've even gotta the stage where people are saying, well, this"},{"startTime":1488.294,"endTime":1491.645,"body":"is, you know, possible and cheap, and you can even do it right away."},{"startTime":1491.665,"endTime":1494.325,"body":"You can buy a, a bit of solar geo engine."},{"startTime":1494.325,"endTime":1499.725,"body":"This is a company, uh, make sunsets that is releasing balloons into the stratosphere above"},{"startTime":1499.725,"endTime":1500.085,"body":"America."},{"startTime":1500.905,"endTime":1504.045,"body":"Um, and, uh, yeah, the balloons, uh, sail up into the sky."},{"startTime":1504.105,"endTime":1505.245,"body":"Here's, they, they, they're clever."},{"startTime":1505.245,"endTime":1508.28,"body":"They put cameras on them so you can sort of see what your, your balloon"},{"startTime":1508.28,"endTime":1508.685,"body":"is doing."},{"startTime":1509.025,"endTime":1512.045,"body":"Um, that's the view from the balloon down over, I think it's California."},{"startTime":1512.235,"endTime":1513.605,"body":"They, uh, it must be California actually."},{"startTime":1513.645,"endTime":1515.725,"body":"'cause they tried to do this in Mexico and Mexico apparently banned it."},{"startTime":1515.865,"endTime":1519.919,"body":"Um, but, uh, um, and this is the view of the balloon, and then you"},{"startTime":1519.919,"endTime":1523.973,"body":"see it bursts and that puff this, that sort of gray cloud, you see you're"},{"startTime":1523.973,"endTime":1525.325,"body":"falling away after it bursts."},{"startTime":1525.665,"endTime":1530.724,"body":"Um, and that, that, um, that that sort of slightly murky yellowish cloud, that sulfur"},{"startTime":1530.724,"endTime":1533.085,"body":"dioxide that's been included in this balloon."},{"startTime":1533.085,"endTime":1537.405,"body":"So that's now going out in the stratosphere and the saying, well, that sulfate oxide"},{"startTime":1537.405,"endTime":1540.285,"body":"will form a, uh, sulfate aerosol is the argument there."},{"startTime":1540.765,"endTime":1545.227,"body":"'cause when you, when you put that sort of gas into the stratosphere, that's what"},{"startTime":1545.227,"endTime":1545.525,"body":"happens."},{"startTime":1545.905,"endTime":1550.405,"body":"Um, and, uh, uh, they, this is gonna cause some, some cooling."},{"startTime":1550.425,"endTime":1554.598,"body":"So they're saying, um, for, for, you can go to their website and you can"},{"startTime":1554.598,"endTime":1558.772,"body":"for, for nine quid, you can offset the warming effect of one ton of carbon"},{"startTime":1558.772,"endTime":1559.885,"body":"dioxide for one year."},{"startTime":1561.345,"endTime":1565.325,"body":"And then underneath this, they say, offsets one ton of carbon dioxide for one year."},{"startTime":1565.625,"endTime":1568.725,"body":"The average American generates 15 tons of carbon dioxide per year."},{"startTime":1571.355,"endTime":1576.575,"body":"If you've really been concentrating in these lectures, why is this misleading advertising?"},{"startTime":1577.515,"endTime":1582.615,"body":"So can the average American, you know, what you are clearly meant to do is"},{"startTime":1582.615,"endTime":1587.715,"body":"multiply that by that and think, you know, I can offset my carbon dioxide emissions"},{"startTime":1587.715,"endTime":1590.095,"body":"for a mere 135 pounds a year."},{"startTime":1591.795,"endTime":1595.655,"body":"Um, anybody wanna comment on what's wrong with this logic?"},{"startTime":1598.605,"endTime":1599.025,"body":"Mm-Hmm."},{"startTime":1600.285,"endTime":1601.065,"body":"So, so"},{"startTime":1601.935,"endTime":1602.225,"body":"Only"},{"startTime":1602.245,"endTime":1603.925,"body":"The one year, it's only the one year."},{"startTime":1603.925,"endTime":1609.072,"body":"And how long does the carbon, how long does the temperature impact of your carbon"},{"startTime":1609.072,"endTime":1610.445,"body":"dioxide emissions last forever?"},{"startTime":1611.155,"endTime":1612.325,"body":"Yeah, okay."},{"startTime":1612.585,"endTime":1616.445,"body":"So in fact, what it actually takes to neutralize the carbon dioxide."},{"startTime":1616.825,"endTime":1621.632,"body":"So suppose you were emitting 15 tons a carbon dioxide per year, you know, you"},{"startTime":1621.632,"endTime":1626.44,"body":"need 1 35 pounds in year 1, 2 70 in year two, you know, and"},{"startTime":1626.44,"endTime":1629.325,"body":"so on, you know, 12,000 pounds in year 90."},{"startTime":1629.665,"endTime":1632.946,"body":"And, you know, okay, at some point you're gonna stop emitting, but then it's like"},{"startTime":1632.946,"endTime":1633.165,"body":"forever."},{"startTime":1634.075,"endTime":1635.325,"body":"Yeah, that's the problem."},{"startTime":1635.325,"endTime":1637.405,"body":"That's a fundamental problem with this sort of approach."},{"startTime":1637.405,"endTime":1643.118,"body":"If you're gonna try and compensate for the impact of, um, of carbon dioxide emissions"},{"startTime":1643.118,"endTime":1648.831,"body":"by dumping stuff in the stratosphere, you're taking it, you're making an absolutely permanent commitment"},{"startTime":1648.831,"endTime":1654.544,"body":"to keep doing it until you've actually taken the carbon dioxide back outta the atmosphere"},{"startTime":1654.544,"endTime":1654.925,"body":"again."},{"startTime":1655.015,"endTime":1659.325,"body":"Which of course is what happens in that scenario."},{"startTime":1659.555,"endTime":1660.925,"body":"I'll just go back to em."},{"startTime":1660.925,"endTime":1662.365,"body":"Oh, we'll, we'll come back onto in it."},{"startTime":1662.705,"endTime":1667.723,"body":"But, um, to be fair, I mean, I, you know, I think, um, makes sunsets"},{"startTime":1667.723,"endTime":1672.742,"body":"are, are, if you go further down their websites, you can get a big discount"},{"startTime":1672.742,"endTime":1675.085,"body":"if you take out a monthly subscription."},{"startTime":1675.145,"endTime":1678.605,"body":"So maybe that sort of makes the, makes the, the economics a bit better."},{"startTime":1678.785,"endTime":1682.685,"body":"But the point is, you know, seriously though, uh, um, you know, particularly if, if"},{"startTime":1682.685,"endTime":1686.585,"body":"it was done on by a government or something as a sort of big, big"},{"startTime":1686.585,"endTime":1689.965,"body":"scale program, cost is actually not the main issue with, with sub general."},{"startTime":1690.025,"endTime":1693.568,"body":"It, it would be, it would be affordable if somebody was to decide to do"},{"startTime":1693.568,"endTime":1693.805,"body":"it."},{"startTime":1694.305,"endTime":1698.97,"body":"But the, the reason, the, the real issue with it, and the reason it's so"},{"startTime":1698.97,"endTime":1703.325,"body":"destabilizing is because of course, there's more to climate than just global average temperature."},{"startTime":1703.325,"endTime":1706.8,"body":"And this is an excuse for me to talk a little bit about climate physics"},{"startTime":1706.8,"endTime":1708.885,"body":"again, um, and, and tell you, tell you why."},{"startTime":1709.585,"endTime":1716.647,"body":"Um, so reflecting away sunlight, um, it can have an, a sort of equal and"},{"startTime":1716.647,"endTime":1720.885,"body":"opposite effect on global temperature as increasing greenhouse gases."},{"startTime":1721.225,"endTime":1724.965,"body":"But it can't have an equal and opposite effect on the climate as a whole,"},{"startTime":1724.965,"endTime":1728.706,"body":"because of course, the climate as a whole is much more than just the global"},{"startTime":1728.706,"endTime":1729.205,"body":"average temperature."},{"startTime":1729.205,"endTime":1735.222,"body":"So there's certain, there are absolutely certain to be side effects of a program where"},{"startTime":1735.222,"endTime":1741.24,"body":"you are modifying the climate by pumping material into the stratosphere to, to, to hold"},{"startTime":1741.24,"endTime":1742.845,"body":"down, uh, surface temperatures."},{"startTime":1743.465,"endTime":1744.925,"body":"And that's when the arguments begin."},{"startTime":1744.925,"endTime":1749.615,"body":"And let me just sort of illustrate one of these side effects with this, um,"},{"startTime":1749.615,"endTime":1751.805,"body":"uh, animation of this is global precipitation."},{"startTime":1751.885,"endTime":1754.085,"body":"This is precipitation around the world."},{"startTime":1754.865,"endTime":1758.725,"body":"And, uh, from NASA's, I merge, uh, satellite dataset."},{"startTime":1759.305,"endTime":1763.205,"body":"And, and what are you, you should find sort of impressive about this?"},{"startTime":1763.785,"endTime":1769.209,"body":"Uh, well just drawing your attention to about, about this, um, uh, uh, uh, this"},{"startTime":1769.209,"endTime":1774.633,"body":"dataset is that, you know, you can see the journal cycle, the daily cycle of"},{"startTime":1774.633,"endTime":1777.165,"body":"temperature and the tropics and so on."},{"startTime":1777.305,"endTime":1780.525,"body":"You can see how noisy it is and how apparently random it is."},{"startTime":1781.265,"endTime":1785.419,"body":"But if you sort of fuzzy your eyes a bit, you'll notice the total amount"},{"startTime":1785.419,"endTime":1789.574,"body":"of precipitation doesn't really change very much despite the fact that in any particular location,"},{"startTime":1789.574,"endTime":1790.405,"body":"it's changing massively."},{"startTime":1791.385,"endTime":1792.325,"body":"So what's going on?"},{"startTime":1792.545,"endTime":1797.614,"body":"And in fact, if we look over time from 1980 to mid 20, um, mid"},{"startTime":1797.614,"endTime":1802.683,"body":"2010s, you can see global average precipitation in this lower figure, um, barely varied by,"},{"startTime":1802.683,"endTime":1807.753,"body":"you know, more than plus or, you know, plus or minus 2% very flat at"},{"startTime":1807.753,"endTime":1812.485,"body":"the same time, the global average temperature was actually going up quite a lot."},{"startTime":1813.705,"endTime":1818.553,"body":"And, you know, global average temperature went up by about half a degree over that"},{"startTime":1818.553,"endTime":1823.402,"body":"period, precipitation, flatlined, and, and, and not only flatlined, but it didn't even, didn't even"},{"startTime":1823.402,"endTime":1827.605,"body":"wander about it seems to be sort of kept at a particular level."},{"startTime":1828.825,"endTime":1835.153,"body":"And, um, it's, it's really interesting why, um, what, why it is that precipitation, global"},{"startTime":1835.153,"endTime":1837.685,"body":"precipitation is, is kept so constant."},{"startTime":1838.425,"endTime":1843.46,"body":"And, and the answer is, it's an interesting piece of physics, um, in that when,"},{"startTime":1843.46,"endTime":1848.496,"body":"when a cloud forms and rain forms in the cloud and rains out, it releases"},{"startTime":1848.496,"endTime":1852.525,"body":"energy into the troposphere, into the upper troposphere and warms it up."},{"startTime":1852.745,"endTime":1858.03,"body":"So, so, um, if you, uh, you, you probably, you, you all know that air"},{"startTime":1858.03,"endTime":1863.315,"body":"gets colder with height, but when a thunderstorm occurs and you have rain, air gets"},{"startTime":1863.315,"endTime":1864.725,"body":"less cold with height."},{"startTime":1865.425,"endTime":1866.725,"body":"So lemme get this right."},{"startTime":1866.865,"endTime":1869.125,"body":"So colder, colder, warm."},{"startTime":1869.185,"endTime":1869.725,"body":"I'm trying to get that."},{"startTime":1869.825,"endTime":1874.469,"body":"So you, a thunderstorm occurs and it, it's, it's the temperature is, is is pushed"},{"startTime":1874.469,"endTime":1877.565,"body":"up, um, in the str in, in the upper troposphere."},{"startTime":1878.185,"endTime":1884.458,"body":"And then of course, because it's, um, falling off less rapidly with height, the atmosphere"},{"startTime":1884.458,"endTime":1890.731,"body":"is stabler because there's, there's the, the, you've got warmer air over colder air, and"},{"startTime":1890.731,"endTime":1897.005,"body":"that suppresses convection again until the air in the upper troposphere has cooled down again."},{"startTime":1897.065,"endTime":1901.04,"body":"So it's, it's, it's, it's warmed up by the convection and then it gradually cools"},{"startTime":1901.04,"endTime":1904.485,"body":"down, and then it, then you get the, the next event goes off."},{"startTime":1905.425,"endTime":1913.348,"body":"So like many processes, um, rainfall, the overall, what we call the global hydrological cycle"},{"startTime":1913.348,"endTime":1914.405,"body":"is controlled."},{"startTime":1914.405,"endTime":1918.965,"body":"The rate of rainfall is controlled by the slowest step in this sequence."},{"startTime":1919.425,"endTime":1921.925,"body":"That's, chemical reactions are like this as well."},{"startTime":1922.235,"endTime":1926.373,"body":"It's always the slowest step in a reaction that determines how fast the whole reaction"},{"startTime":1926.373,"endTime":1926.925,"body":"takes place."},{"startTime":1927.585,"endTime":1931.273,"body":"And the form, the form, the formation of a cloud, the formation of rain, and"},{"startTime":1931.273,"endTime":1931.765,"body":"so on."},{"startTime":1931.765,"endTime":1932.445,"body":"That's all very quick."},{"startTime":1933.185,"endTime":1938.535,"body":"But this cooling off of the, of the atmosphere after the rain has formed, that's"},{"startTime":1938.535,"endTime":1939.605,"body":"what takes time."},{"startTime":1939.985,"endTime":1944.519,"body":"And that's what determines the, the, the, the total amount of rainfall that happens in"},{"startTime":1944.519,"endTime":1949.053,"body":"the world is the ability of the atmosphere to get rid of the energy that's"},{"startTime":1949.053,"endTime":1950.565,"body":"being released by the rainfall."},{"startTime":1950.985,"endTime":1955.635,"body":"And we understand this, this is, this is the basic sort of physics of how"},{"startTime":1955.635,"endTime":1956.565,"body":"rainfall is controlled."},{"startTime":1956.565,"endTime":1960.545,"body":"And that's why you saw that very, that's why we see a very constant, um,"},{"startTime":1960.545,"endTime":1964.525,"body":"uh, uh, amount of rain here and why you saw that sort of very constant"},{"startTime":1964.525,"endTime":1967.445,"body":"rainfall around the world in, in the, in, in the animation."},{"startTime":1969.225,"endTime":1973.871,"body":"Um, but then you, you, you be, again, you might be puzzled because you think,"},{"startTime":1973.871,"endTime":1978.518,"body":"well, global temperature's going up and a warmer atmosphere should be able to get rid"},{"startTime":1978.518,"endTime":1983.165,"body":"of energy faster because it's warmer, it's been radiating more, and therefore, why are we"},{"startTime":1983.165,"endTime":1984.405,"body":"not seeing more rain?"},{"startTime":1985.195,"endTime":1990.569,"body":"Well, um, the answer lies in what's driving the warming, of course, because if we"},{"startTime":1990.569,"endTime":1995.944,"body":"increase, um, and this is a figure from a kind of very old paper, but"},{"startTime":1995.944,"endTime":2001.318,"body":"the, the point still stands, um, that shows the warming in lots of different climate"},{"startTime":2001.318,"endTime":2006.693,"body":"models resulting from an increase in carbon dioxide doubling in this particular case against the"},{"startTime":2006.693,"endTime":2008.485,"body":"precipitation change in the vertical."},{"startTime":2008.985,"endTime":2012.81,"body":"And you'll notice they, they fall on more or less a straight line, but it"},{"startTime":2012.81,"endTime":2014.085,"body":"doesn't go through the origin."},{"startTime":2015.465,"endTime":2019.71,"body":"So if you were, if you were to double carbon dioxide in a climate model,"},{"startTime":2019.71,"endTime":2023.956,"body":"and we do see this in climate models, when when you do this, you actually"},{"startTime":2023.956,"endTime":2028.201,"body":"immediately reduce the ability of the atmosphere to get rid of the energy released by"},{"startTime":2028.201,"endTime":2028.485,"body":"rainfall."},{"startTime":2029.435,"endTime":2029.725,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2029.725,"endTime":2031.645,"body":"Because you are making it more opaque."},{"startTime":2032.305,"endTime":2036.055,"body":"So it can't, it can't get rid of that energy as, as efficiently remembering those,"},{"startTime":2036.055,"endTime":2039.805,"body":"those of you at last year's lectures can remember those pretty colored balls, which I"},{"startTime":2039.805,"endTime":2042.805,"body":"told you about, how, how the atmosphere got rid of its energy."},{"startTime":2043.385,"endTime":2047.24,"body":"And then of course, it warms up and you go off in this direction, and"},{"startTime":2047.24,"endTime":2048.525,"body":"that's the temperature dependent effect."},{"startTime":2048.864,"endTime":2052.236,"body":"But if you were to compensate for the temperature dependent effect, come back down this"},{"startTime":2052.236,"endTime":2054.485,"body":"red line, you don't get back to where you started."},{"startTime":2055.425,"endTime":2059.135,"body":"You get, you know, you've got all that sea, all that carbon dioxide, which has"},{"startTime":2059.135,"endTime":2060.125,"body":"dried out the planet."},{"startTime":2060.745,"endTime":2065.094,"body":"So if you were to compensate for the temperature dependent effect by, um, pumping, uh,"},{"startTime":2065.094,"endTime":2069.445,"body":"material into the stratosphere, you sort of artificial volcano idea, you end up down here."},{"startTime":2069.445,"endTime":2073.888,"body":"So you swapped global warming for global drying, and you can't get around this, you"},{"startTime":2073.888,"endTime":2078.332,"body":"know, this, this red line does not go through zero, so there's no way back"},{"startTime":2078.332,"endTime":2078.925,"body":"to zero."},{"startTime":2079.225,"endTime":2081.125,"body":"And at a regional level, it's even more obvious."},{"startTime":2081.185,"endTime":2083.205,"body":"And this is a piece of work, um, done."},{"startTime":2083.205,"endTime":2086.781,"body":"But we had a, a visiting student, Kate Ricky, who's gone on to actually become"},{"startTime":2086.781,"endTime":2089.165,"body":"one of the, uh, world's leading experts in solar geoengineering."},{"startTime":2089.705,"endTime":2094.967,"body":"Um, and she, um, in a, in a really nice study showed how the regional"},{"startTime":2094.967,"endTime":2098.125,"body":"impacts of geoengineering were different over India and China."},{"startTime":2098.185,"endTime":2101.765,"body":"We just chose those as two, um, big blocks of land."},{"startTime":2101.905,"endTime":2105.565,"body":"Um, but also because of course, um, well, they're, they're, they're powerful players."},{"startTime":2106.185,"endTime":2111.536,"body":"Um, and if you look, uh, just focus on the 2070s results, um, this is"},{"startTime":2111.536,"endTime":2116.888,"body":"a, a, a scenario in which there's a discussion about how much geoengineering do we"},{"startTime":2116.888,"endTime":2117.245,"body":"want."},{"startTime":2117.985,"endTime":2125.062,"body":"And the circle shows pre-industrial climate, sort of within one standard era of pre-industrial temperature"},{"startTime":2125.062,"endTime":2128.365,"body":"and pre-industrial precipitation in these individual regions."},{"startTime":2128.945,"endTime":2134.69,"body":"And you'll notice that, you know, um, if we go for more geoengineering, China's happy,"},{"startTime":2134.69,"endTime":2136.605,"body":"they're back inside the circle."},{"startTime":2137.145,"endTime":2143.428,"body":"But India's outta the circle, India's been driven to a, a climate that's, that's different"},{"startTime":2143.428,"endTime":2144.685,"body":"from its pre-industrial."},{"startTime":2145.265,"endTime":2149.6,"body":"And of course, if you go for less geoengineering, um, then India's happy they're inside"},{"startTime":2149.6,"endTime":2151.045,"body":"the circle, but China's not."},{"startTime":2151.045,"endTime":2155.125,"body":"So this kind of regional disparities are inevitable from a geoengineering."},{"startTime":2155.505,"endTime":2159.12,"body":"And you know, I've, it's taken me 10 minutes to explain to you why, but"},{"startTime":2159.12,"endTime":2160.085,"body":"everybody can understand this."},{"startTime":2161.025,"endTime":2164.366,"body":"And so, I mean, the governments of Indian China may be very rational and they"},{"startTime":2164.366,"endTime":2167.708,"body":"may be able to sort it out and, and, and, and, and agree on that,"},{"startTime":2167.708,"endTime":2169.045,"body":"but you know, there are others."},{"startTime":2169.465,"endTime":2172.245,"body":"Um, here we are, thanks to John Berman for pointing this out."},{"startTime":2172.625,"endTime":2174.005,"body":"Um, this is James Delling poll."},{"startTime":2174.005,"endTime":2177.605,"body":"Anyone who still believes that the weather is not being deliberately engineered to create food"},{"startTime":2177.605,"endTime":2180.725,"body":"sausages deserves all the food price inflation and starvation we will inevitably get."},{"startTime":2181.105,"endTime":2186.109,"body":"Now, nevermind James Delling poll is saying this, but you know, 135,000 people are, are,"},{"startTime":2186.109,"endTime":2189.445,"body":"are, are reading it, lots of them are liking it."},{"startTime":2190.345,"endTime":2194.889,"body":"Um, even with what we're doing today, I I always find it intriguing how the"},{"startTime":2194.889,"endTime":2199.433,"body":"conspiracy theorists are convinced the government's very incompetent, but then they're convinced the government's doing"},{"startTime":2199.433,"endTime":2200.645,"body":"something really clever \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":2201.165,"endTime":2203.365,"body":"I mean, how, anyway, nevermind."},{"startTime":2203.665,"endTime":2208.953,"body":"Um, but some, but the point is, you know, it, it, it, what, there's enough"},{"startTime":2208.953,"endTime":2214.242,"body":"justification if the government were actually doing this, you can imagine the conspiracy theorists would"},{"startTime":2214.242,"endTime":2216.005,"body":"be having a field day."},{"startTime":2216.865,"endTime":2222.125,"body":"Um, so, um, you know, as I say, effective geos, geoengineering, which actually sort of"},{"startTime":2222.125,"endTime":2227.385,"body":"does enough to make a difference, is unique destabilizing, unlike removing carbon dioxide from the"},{"startTime":2227.385,"endTime":2232.645,"body":"atmosphere, which does have a sort of compensating effect, putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."},{"startTime":2233.145,"endTime":2235.685,"body":"Um, solar geo engineering can only be done on a global scale."},{"startTime":2235.685,"endTime":2239.741,"body":"There's only sort of one, there's only one climate view to intervene in, and it"},{"startTime":2239.741,"endTime":2242.445,"body":"can't compensate fully for the impact of the carbonide emissions."},{"startTime":2242.905,"endTime":2246.405,"body":"So, by the way, I think one thing, one thing I do feel very strongly"},{"startTime":2246.405,"endTime":2249.905,"body":"about is that reports like this one, again, it's, it's a long time ago now,"},{"startTime":2249.905,"endTime":2252.005,"body":"but it rather set off the way of thinking."},{"startTime":2252.345,"endTime":2257.262,"body":"Um, for 10 years people thought of carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification as"},{"startTime":2257.262,"endTime":2259.885,"body":"sort of two parts of the same thing."},{"startTime":2260.035,"endTime":2261.965,"body":"They're not, they're fundamentally different."},{"startTime":2261.965,"endTime":2264.765,"body":"One is actually compensating for the impact of putting CO2 into the atmosphere."},{"startTime":2265.065,"endTime":2269.045,"body":"The other one is this sort of, um, sticking plaster."},{"startTime":2269.265,"endTime":2273.918,"body":"Um, and when we come back to this scenario, if you look at the sort"},{"startTime":2273.918,"endTime":2278.572,"body":"of this, this was included in the 1.5 degrees report as a sort of suggestion"},{"startTime":2278.572,"endTime":2281.365,"body":"of a, how solar geoengineering could be relatively harmless."},{"startTime":2282.065,"endTime":2286.885,"body":"Um, but if you look at what harmless implies, you realize that you are actually"},{"startTime":2286.885,"endTime":2291.706,"body":"deploying the solar geoengineering after you've already reduced emissions by, you know, almost half, and"},{"startTime":2291.706,"endTime":2295.885,"body":"you're well on, you are only a couple of decades off net zero."},{"startTime":2296.825,"endTime":2301.198,"body":"Why on earth would you at that point suddenly head off on a complete tangent"},{"startTime":2301.198,"endTime":2302.365,"body":"and start deploying geoengineering?"},{"startTime":2302.905,"endTime":2306.413,"body":"Um, and of course, when the impact of the geoengineering is actually sort of, kind"},{"startTime":2306.413,"endTime":2308.285,"body":"of within the uncertainty in the response anyway."},{"startTime":2308.745,"endTime":2312.445,"body":"So fortunately for now, there is a global moratorium, moratorium in place."},{"startTime":2312.705,"endTime":2317.459,"body":"Um, back in 2010, uh, in the convention on biodiversity, um, they agreed that they,"},{"startTime":2317.459,"endTime":2322.214,"body":"there there would be, um, the governments would ensure that no climate related geoengineering activities"},{"startTime":2322.214,"endTime":2326.969,"body":"that may affect the biodiversity, which means them all, um, may take place until, you"},{"startTime":2326.969,"endTime":2331.724,"body":"know, there is a sort of get out there until there's an adequate scientific basis"},{"startTime":2331.724,"endTime":2335.845,"body":"on which to justify such actions and appropriate consideration of the associated risks."},{"startTime":2335.945,"endTime":2339.165,"body":"So it's, it's a moratorium for now."},{"startTime":2340.505,"endTime":2345.857,"body":"Um, and you know, so I, but most people agree that it's the, you know,"},{"startTime":2345.857,"endTime":2347.285,"body":"solar geoengineering could work."},{"startTime":2347.285,"endTime":2352.549,"body":"There's no sort of really, there's no really argument over that, but it's that, it's"},{"startTime":2352.549,"endTime":2357.814,"body":"the, um, it's the geopolitical, um, implications of of solar geoengineering that really, really frighten"},{"startTime":2357.814,"endTime":2358.165,"body":"people."},{"startTime":2358.185,"endTime":2362.555,"body":"And I think, um, deserve to be deserved when, um, uh, when people are sort"},{"startTime":2362.555,"endTime":2366.925,"body":"of talking about deployment, there's often, or talking about sort of research programs in this,"},{"startTime":2366.925,"endTime":2368.965,"body":"they say, well, you know, don't worry."},{"startTime":2368.965,"endTime":2372.469,"body":"We'll have a un committee that'll manage it, or, you know, and really, um, we,"},{"startTime":2372.469,"endTime":2374.805,"body":"we don't really do that sort of thing very well."},{"startTime":2375.345,"endTime":2380.921,"body":"Anyway, um, to get onto, just to, to, to wrap up, you know, I think"},{"startTime":2380.921,"endTime":2386.497,"body":"to be fair, you know, I've, I've, I think solar geoengineering is a particularly destabilizing"},{"startTime":2386.497,"endTime":2392.073,"body":"measure, but I think to be fair, many climate policies have the potential to be"},{"startTime":2392.073,"endTime":2392.445,"body":"destabilizing."},{"startTime":2392.825,"endTime":2394.325,"body":"And we do need to think about this."},{"startTime":2394.805,"endTime":2398.241,"body":"'cause I say, as I say, I think we do need to think about, you"},{"startTime":2398.241,"endTime":2401.677,"body":"know, the trade offs between we need to stop the warming as soon as, you"},{"startTime":2401.677,"endTime":2404.885,"body":"know, we keep hearing we need to stop the warming as soon as possible."},{"startTime":2405.705,"endTime":2407.165,"body":"Is that quite correct?"},{"startTime":2407.585,"endTime":2412.66,"body":"You know, is is do, are there measures that would actually be, um, uh, would,"},{"startTime":2412.66,"endTime":2417.736,"body":"would, would, would, would be so destabilizing, um, that, that, you know, it might even"},{"startTime":2417.736,"endTime":2422.811,"body":"be worth accepting a couple of tenths of a degree more warming to avoid having"},{"startTime":2422.811,"endTime":2424.165,"body":"to take those measures."},{"startTime":2424.525,"endTime":2427.165,"body":"I think solar geoengineering definitely fits into that category."},{"startTime":2427.465,"endTime":2429.045,"body":"Um, but there may be other ones as well."},{"startTime":2429.425,"endTime":2434.912,"body":"And, you know, I think we need, do need to think about the implications of"},{"startTime":2434.912,"endTime":2440.4,"body":"over precipitous, um, emission reductions in that category as well, what you might call the"},{"startTime":2440.4,"endTime":2445.888,"body":"social geoengineering that would be required to achieve some of the more ambitious, um, demand"},{"startTime":2445.888,"endTime":2451.375,"body":"reduction scenarios that people are very fond of pointing to as the way they'd like"},{"startTime":2451.375,"endTime":2453.205,"body":"us to solve climate change."},{"startTime":2453.925,"endTime":2458.581,"body":"I mean, at COP 28, we had lots of people enthusiastically saying, you know, we've"},{"startTime":2458.581,"endTime":2461.685,"body":"gotta phase out fossil fuels, um, as fast as possible."},{"startTime":2462.105,"endTime":2468.095,"body":"Um, and, uh, um, but not, I think recognizing that trying to achieve our climate"},{"startTime":2468.095,"endTime":2474.086,"body":"goals by phasing out fossil fuels means phasing them out completely in the next 20"},{"startTime":2474.086,"endTime":2475.285,"body":"or 30 years."},{"startTime":2475.825,"endTime":2479.365,"body":"And that in itself carries risks if we look at these scenarios."},{"startTime":2479.825,"endTime":2483.405,"body":"So this is four scenarios, all of which achieve 1.5 degrees."},{"startTime":2483.945,"endTime":2489.09,"body":"And what I'm showing you here is energy use, not emissions, but energy use in"},{"startTime":2489.09,"endTime":2490.805,"body":"these scenarios from different sources."},{"startTime":2491.665,"endTime":2499.605,"body":"The, the dark green is fossil, conventional, fossil, um, conventional fossil fuel, uh, energy generation."},{"startTime":2499.985,"endTime":2505.601,"body":"And so you can see in two of these scenarios, we effectively phase out conventional"},{"startTime":2505.601,"endTime":2506.725,"body":"fossil energy generation."},{"startTime":2506.725,"endTime":2510.125,"body":"The other two, we reduce it, but it doesn't get phased out entirely."},{"startTime":2510.705,"endTime":2514.845,"body":"So what does it, what does that entail, that sort of fossil phase out scenario?"},{"startTime":2515.395,"endTime":2520.777,"body":"Well, in one class of these scenarios, it means an immediate, that means this decade,"},{"startTime":2520.777,"endTime":2524.365,"body":"30% reduction in final energy demand per head of population."},{"startTime":2525.585,"endTime":2530.757,"body":"So I mean, no, no government has any appetite whatsoever for that sort of, and,"},{"startTime":2530.757,"endTime":2535.93,"body":"and, you know, whenever governments have tried to reduce demand like that, the result has"},{"startTime":2535.93,"endTime":2536.965,"body":"been pretty explosive."},{"startTime":2537.345,"endTime":2542.649,"body":"Um, I mean, remember Macron back in, uh, 2018, for example, um, and then the,"},{"startTime":2542.649,"endTime":2547.954,"body":"the other category actually involved, um, amazing amounts of bioenergy production in the second half"},{"startTime":2547.954,"endTime":2551.845,"body":"of this century, which, uh, we, we, we've perhaps come into."},{"startTime":2553.185,"endTime":2556.125,"body":"So this is what worries me with some climate policies."},{"startTime":2556.225,"endTime":2559.408,"body":"It makes it a bit sort of too easy, um, to come up with this"},{"startTime":2559.408,"endTime":2560.045,"body":"kind of thing."},{"startTime":2560.065,"endTime":2565.725,"body":"And, you know, okay, I hope, I'm hoping, uh, this particular demonstrator a minority."},{"startTime":2566.265,"endTime":2571.838,"body":"Um, but, um, you know, the fact that that's out there, um, and that it's"},{"startTime":2571.838,"endTime":2575.925,"body":"increasingly entering the UK political discussion, I think is, is worrying."},{"startTime":2576.425,"endTime":2581.689,"body":"Um, and, and I think the, um, proponents of climate action of which I'm, I,"},{"startTime":2581.689,"endTime":2586.953,"body":"I absolutely one I think need to look at what we're advocating for and, and,"},{"startTime":2586.953,"endTime":2592.218,"body":"and, and way up, you know, what are the implications of climate policies on different"},{"startTime":2592.218,"endTime":2597.482,"body":"political pe people of different political persuasions and people in different social groups in order"},{"startTime":2597.482,"endTime":2602.045,"body":"to make sure that we prioritize inclusive climate policies that don't divide people."},{"startTime":2602.445,"endTime":2606.849,"body":"I think at the moment, actually, particularly in the run up to this election, you're"},{"startTime":2606.849,"endTime":2611.254,"body":"gonna see, I think, you know, both sides seem to be quite keen on making"},{"startTime":2611.254,"endTime":2615.365,"body":"climate an, uh, an issue in the election, um, in a pretty unhelpful way."},{"startTime":2615.625,"endTime":2620.297,"body":"Um, because, you know, if the conservatives are seeing it as a, you know, climate's"},{"startTime":2620.297,"endTime":2624.97,"body":"just this woke issue for the urban classes, that's, you know, okay, that's, that's, that"},{"startTime":2624.97,"endTime":2628.085,"body":"could really contaminate the conversation about it for, for decades."},{"startTime":2628.945,"endTime":2632.159,"body":"Um, but I think, you know, we need to look at the kind of policies"},{"startTime":2632.159,"endTime":2633.445,"body":"that labor's putting forward as well."},{"startTime":2634.185,"endTime":2638.178,"body":"Um, and, and ask yourself, you know, are they really designing them with inclusion in"},{"startTime":2638.178,"endTime":2638.445,"body":"mind?"},{"startTime":2638.945,"endTime":2643.371,"body":"Um, you know, one, one particular policy that we'll, we'll be talking about in, in,"},{"startTime":2643.371,"endTime":2647.797,"body":"in the next, um, in, in the next lecture and, and indeed next year, um,"},{"startTime":2647.797,"endTime":2652.223,"body":"the idea that you, um, ban new extraction of fossil fuels, um, that's, um, it,"},{"startTime":2652.223,"endTime":2655.765,"body":"you know, it doesn't, it doesn't have an obvious impact on emissions."},{"startTime":2655.765,"endTime":2658.325,"body":"It makes it very easy to sort of polarize the debate around it."},{"startTime":2659.105,"endTime":2663.673,"body":"Um, and it makes it, you know, very much on those communities that are immediately"},{"startTime":2663.673,"endTime":2665.805,"body":"affected by a fossil fuel extraction ban."},{"startTime":2666.305,"endTime":2670.693,"body":"Um, it's a way of dividing people up, and it doesn't, it seems to me"},{"startTime":2670.693,"endTime":2674.205,"body":"an unnecessarily divisive for, for its minimal impact on the actual problem."},{"startTime":2674.265,"endTime":2676.485,"body":"It seems to be an unnecessarily divisive policy."},{"startTime":2677.705,"endTime":2679.205,"body":"Plenty of people disagree with me on this."},{"startTime":2679.245,"endTime":2680.165,"body":"I should, sorry, I should stress."},{"startTime":2680.225,"endTime":2680.645,"body":"Anyway."},{"startTime":2681.145,"endTime":2686.461,"body":"So to sum up, um, you know, I worry about, overwhelmingly about the geopolitical risks"},{"startTime":2686.461,"endTime":2687.525,"body":"of climate change."},{"startTime":2687.565,"endTime":2692.447,"body":"I think it's, it's the impact of climate change on us and the way we"},{"startTime":2692.447,"endTime":2697.005,"body":"interact with each other that are the biggest risks that, that, uh, in this."},{"startTime":2697.225,"endTime":2702.371,"body":"And one of them, um, one option of just sort of not doing anything because"},{"startTime":2702.371,"endTime":2707.518,"body":"you're worried about the geopolitical consequences or the political consequences, um, that will eventually just"},{"startTime":2707.518,"endTime":2708.205,"body":"stoke resentment."},{"startTime":2708.385,"endTime":2711.245,"body":"Um, probably not just eventually it's already stoking resentment."},{"startTime":2711.865,"endTime":2717.427,"body":"Um, so, so, you know, this doesn't, this is absolutely not an argument for non"},{"startTime":2717.427,"endTime":2720.765,"body":"policy on climate because you're worried about offending people."},{"startTime":2721.345,"endTime":2729.032,"body":"Um, quick fixes, particularly solar geoengineering is likely even worse in terms of stoking, um,"},{"startTime":2729.032,"endTime":2733.645,"body":"perception, perceived injustices and perceived anger about this issue."},{"startTime":2734.265,"endTime":2737.045,"body":"But we have to apply the same lens to all policies."},{"startTime":2737.065,"endTime":2741.991,"body":"We have to ask ourselves, you know, you know, when particularly draconian policies, which would"},{"startTime":2741.991,"endTime":2746.917,"body":"be required if you wanted to try and address climate change, pri focusing heavily on"},{"startTime":2746.917,"endTime":2751.843,"body":"de demand, um, which is the way a lot of the climate mitigation policy community"},{"startTime":2751.843,"endTime":2753.485,"body":"are going at the moment."},{"startTime":2753.485,"endTime":2755.925,"body":"They're saying, well, you know, the technologies aren't being deployed fast enough."},{"startTime":2755.925,"endTime":2760.253,"body":"The only option left is to really focus on demand and reduce the amount of"},{"startTime":2760.253,"endTime":2764.005,"body":"consumption around the world that's has the potential to become really, really divisive."},{"startTime":2764.305,"endTime":2769.296,"body":"And, and I think we need to ask ourselves, you know, are these, are these,"},{"startTime":2769.296,"endTime":2774.288,"body":"um, rapid demand reduction scenarios worth, worth, the likely, um, social impact, social and political"},{"startTime":2774.288,"endTime":2776.285,"body":"impacts, uh, that they may have?"},{"startTime":2776.905,"endTime":2779.365,"body":"And, uh, the conversation will continue and we'll come back to it."},{"startTime":2779.905,"endTime":2783.285,"body":"But anyway, so that the, that's, uh, uh, that's sums up this one."},{"startTime":2783.285,"endTime":2786.735,"body":"But in the, in the next, on a much more positive note, so sorry if"},{"startTime":2786.735,"endTime":2789.725,"body":"this has been a rather sort of negative and gloom gloomy, uh, lecture."},{"startTime":2790.185,"endTime":2794.023,"body":"Um, but in, in, in the final lecture of this series, we will try and"},{"startTime":2794.023,"endTime":2797.862,"body":"talk about sort of what can be done, what on the positive side, what can"},{"startTime":2797.862,"endTime":2801.445,"body":"be done to design inclusive climate policies to avoid these kind of geopolitical tensions?"},{"startTime":2801.695,"endTime":2802.165,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":2807.895,"endTime":2813.481,"body":"First, uh, perhaps the, the question of, um, you said that there is the lack"},{"startTime":2813.481,"endTime":2819.068,"body":"of, um, consensus among, among countries, and, and there is the question about actually the"},{"startTime":2819.068,"endTime":2823.165,"body":"potential implication of unilateral deployment, of, of solar engineering, uh, techniques."},{"startTime":2823.195,"endTime":2825.805,"body":"What could be the, the, the potential implications of that?"},{"startTime":2825.875,"endTime":2826.965,"body":"Well, I mean, it's already happening."},{"startTime":2827.005,"endTime":2829.365,"body":"I mean, those guys in California are letting off these balloons."},{"startTime":2829.445,"endTime":2833.095,"body":"I mean, I, I, I, unfortunately, they're only letting off a few, and I, I"},{"startTime":2833.095,"endTime":2836.745,"body":"think assume, I assume once they get to any scale, they'll just get banned and"},{"startTime":2836.745,"endTime":2838.205,"body":"that'll be the end of that."},{"startTime":2838.545,"endTime":2839.925,"body":"Um, but they've made plenty of money."},{"startTime":2840.045,"endTime":2843.689,"body":"I mean, they've got, if you look at their website, they've, they've got lots of"},{"startTime":2843.689,"endTime":2847.334,"body":"investors piling in and, you know, so, so, um, so you clever guys in the"},{"startTime":2847.334,"endTime":2850.979,"body":"short term, I'm not sure it's very good for, um, but, but yeah, I mean,"},{"startTime":2850.979,"endTime":2854.624,"body":"the point is that even a private, even a wealthy private individual could start messing"},{"startTime":2854.624,"endTime":2856.325,"body":"around with, with, with the earth's climate."},{"startTime":2856.785,"endTime":2861.045,"body":"Um, the, the difficulty of course is you can't do it secretly."},{"startTime":2862.065,"endTime":2867.027,"body":"Um, so it would be very, it would be pretty much impossible to, to start"},{"startTime":2867.027,"endTime":2870.005,"body":"geoengineering without people knowing that you were doing it."},{"startTime":2870.705,"endTime":2875.263,"body":"And as a result, you know, the conspiracy theists, but even non conspiracy imp perfectly"},{"startTime":2875.263,"endTime":2879.822,"body":"sensible, people would immediately start to say, well, wait a minute, they're doing this program"},{"startTime":2879.822,"endTime":2884.381,"body":"and I've just got this mega drought, which is killing all my relatives and so"},{"startTime":2884.381,"endTime":2884.685,"body":"on."},{"startTime":2884.745,"endTime":2887.565,"body":"You know, maybe this is related and you'd have some justification for that."},{"startTime":2888.105,"endTime":2889.125,"body":"And, and that's the problem."},{"startTime":2889.345,"endTime":2892.365,"body":"And that's when the, that's when the potentially the wars start."},{"startTime":2892.905,"endTime":2898.485,"body":"And interestingly, are they actually computing the carbon footprint to create, to make the balloons?"},{"startTime":2898.835,"endTime":2899.805,"body":"Because this has"},{"startTime":2900.005,"endTime":2903.005,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e, I'm, I, I wouldn't wanna start getting into those sort of arguments."},{"startTime":2903.005,"endTime":2906.765,"body":"Maybe they have, but I mean, you know, or"},{"startTime":2906.765,"endTime":2908.605,"body":"Even just other forms of solar"},{"startTime":2909.005,"endTime":2909.285,"body":"Engineering"},{"startTime":2909.285,"endTime":2910.445,"body":"Techniques, that's quite an"},{"startTime":2910.605,"endTime":2915.345,"body":"Interesting, no, but there is no question that, that that stratosphere, stratospheric aerosol injection or,"},{"startTime":2915.345,"endTime":2920.085,"body":"or marine cloud brightening for that matter could be done, it would be relatively cheap."},{"startTime":2920.365,"endTime":2924.115,"body":"I mean, that's the, you know, that's the sort of scary part of it, is"},{"startTime":2924.115,"endTime":2925.365,"body":"it, you know, it's affordable."},{"startTime":2926.105,"endTime":2931.085,"body":"Um, but it definitely has side effects and it has comprehensible side effects."},{"startTime":2931.185,"endTime":2936.097,"body":"It has side effects that everybody would understand, and therefore everybody would, you know, feel"},{"startTime":2936.097,"endTime":2941.01,"body":"if they, if they feel they, if every, if, you know, if people, it's, IM,"},{"startTime":2941.01,"endTime":2945.922,"body":"it's impossible for a government to get away with saying we're doing this, but don't"},{"startTime":2945.922,"endTime":2949.525,"body":"worry, it's not having any adverse impacts anywhere in the world."},{"startTime":2949.785,"endTime":2954.005,"body":"Um, you know, because somebody would blame them for the weather."},{"startTime":2955.225,"endTime":2960.775,"body":"Um, another question is actually related is about, well, to avoid conflict, it seems that"},{"startTime":2960.775,"endTime":2966.325,"body":"transparency and accountability is, is, is key here, and, um, it has to be insured."},{"startTime":2966.465,"endTime":2970.809,"body":"How, how can we make sure of this in the sense that there is a"},{"startTime":2970.809,"endTime":2974.285,"body":"lack of awareness of all these, uh, techniques and and so on?"},{"startTime":2974.605,"endTime":2978.969,"body":"I mean, I, yeah, I, I I, I know that this is, I mean the,"},{"startTime":2978.969,"endTime":2983.334,"body":"the, uh, there's a foundation, um, I'm blanking on the name Yash pastor is, is"},{"startTime":2983.334,"endTime":2987.698,"body":"is the head of it, um, uh, where they talk a lot about this sort"},{"startTime":2987.698,"endTime":2992.063,"body":"of accountability and inclusion of different countries and different perspectives and so on in discussions"},{"startTime":2992.063,"endTime":2992.645,"body":"about geoengineering."},{"startTime":2993.365,"endTime":2994.845,"body":"I think that's hopeless, to be honest."},{"startTime":2994.865,"endTime":2997.925,"body":"It doesn't matter how transparent you are, you're still gonna get blamed."},{"startTime":2998.745,"endTime":3002.378,"body":"In fact, arguably the more transparent you are, the the more you're gonna get blamed"},{"startTime":3002.378,"endTime":3005.285,"body":"for, for, for the weather, regardless of whether it's true or not."},{"startTime":3005.925,"endTime":3010.16,"body":"I mean, we, you know, you saw the, you saw the tweet, I mean, it,"},{"startTime":3010.16,"endTime":3014.395,"body":"it, it, it, it's, and there's, there's enough of a reasonable narrative there for there"},{"startTime":3014.395,"endTime":3015.525,"body":"to be that risk."},{"startTime":3015.945,"endTime":3022.831,"body":"And, you know, inevitably if this actually happens on any scale, it will be with"},{"startTime":3022.831,"endTime":3026.045,"body":"the blessing of the big military powers."},{"startTime":3026.105,"endTime":3030.361,"body":"So, I mean, for this to be done on any scale, basically, it's either done"},{"startTime":3030.361,"endTime":3034.618,"body":"by the US or China, or done by somebody else with the blessing of the"},{"startTime":3034.618,"endTime":3036.605,"body":"US or China and, and probably both."},{"startTime":3036.765,"endTime":3040.707,"body":"I mean, you'd need, you know, and, and so therefore the US or China or"},{"startTime":3040.707,"endTime":3044.65,"body":"both would be held responsible by the rest of the world for this program that"},{"startTime":3044.65,"endTime":3045.965,"body":"they are allowing to happen."},{"startTime":3046.905,"endTime":3048.805,"body":"That's where it gets frightening."},{"startTime":3049.675,"endTime":3050.165,"body":"Alright."},{"startTime":3050.445,"endTime":3051.245,"body":"Questions from the audience?"},{"startTime":3051.275,"endTime":3054.125,"body":"Yeah, yeah."},{"startTime":3054.485,"endTime":3059.485,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e,"},{"startTime":3055.685,"endTime":3056.685,"body":"I thought one, sorry."},{"startTime":3056.855,"endTime":3057.245,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3057.745,"endTime":3062.342,"body":"So one interesting idea that James Lovelock had of a low cost way to reduce"},{"startTime":3062.342,"endTime":3066.94,"body":"global warming would be to force all the airlines to run the intercontinental flights during"},{"startTime":3066.94,"endTime":3071.538,"body":"the day instead of at night, so that the, uh, vapor would have a dimming"},{"startTime":3071.538,"endTime":3071.845,"body":"effect."},{"startTime":3072.185,"endTime":3077.165,"body":"How, how would that possibly work or not work in the context of solar geoengineering?"},{"startTime":3077.195,"endTime":3082.598,"body":"Yeah, I mean, uh, it, it's, um, it, it, it doesn't, um, uh, the, the,"},{"startTime":3082.598,"endTime":3088.001,"body":"there are, I mean the, the conversation around this is actually more than the other"},{"startTime":3088.001,"endTime":3093.404,"body":"direction whether we should sort of avoid flying planes at night because that has a,"},{"startTime":3093.404,"endTime":3094.845,"body":"a disproportionate warming effect."},{"startTime":3095.385,"endTime":3097.645,"body":"Um, so, okay, it's the same, it's the same thing."},{"startTime":3097.905,"endTime":3102.645,"body":"Um, the, the net impact of all the air travel would still be causing warming."},{"startTime":3102.655,"endTime":3105.365,"body":"You'd just be causing slightly less warming."},{"startTime":3105.505,"endTime":3108.525,"body":"Um, if you, if you shifted them, um, to the day."},{"startTime":3108.905,"endTime":3115.113,"body":"Um, if you actually want to get a net cooling effect, you've gotta start chucking"},{"startTime":3115.113,"endTime":3121.321,"body":"additives into the, into the jet fuel and so sos to create, um, sulfur dioxide"},{"startTime":3121.321,"endTime":3123.805,"body":"and hence subsequently sulfate aerosol clouds."},{"startTime":3124.225,"endTime":3126.445,"body":"Um, so you've gotta actually do something."},{"startTime":3126.545,"endTime":3131.304,"body":"And I think that's the, that's where it gets destabilizing is because if you are"},{"startTime":3131.304,"endTime":3136.063,"body":"just saying, well, I'm just gonna fly my planes at a different, I'm gonna change"},{"startTime":3136.063,"endTime":3140.822,"body":"my, my, my, my plane, um, planning my, my, my flight track planning to reduce"},{"startTime":3140.822,"endTime":3145.581,"body":"the amount of warming my airline causes, that sounds like the kind of thing people"},{"startTime":3145.581,"endTime":3147.485,"body":"aren't gonna get that upset about."},{"startTime":3147.485,"endTime":3151.475,"body":"That sounds like a good thing to do, but if you say, I'm actually gonna"},{"startTime":3151.475,"endTime":3155.465,"body":"start actively intervening to cool the planet through adding this additives, that's when you're gonna"},{"startTime":3155.465,"endTime":3158.125,"body":"get star getting blamed for, for all the side effects."},{"startTime":3158.895,"endTime":3160.445,"body":"Thank you for a very interesting talk."},{"startTime":3160.905,"endTime":3164.633,"body":"Um, I'm curious how you respond to what, you know, I felt as kind of"},{"startTime":3164.633,"endTime":3168.362,"body":"an increasing rhetorical push from a lot of energy companies arguing, you know, we're, we're"},{"startTime":3168.362,"endTime":3172.09,"body":"getting to net zero, but we're still gonna need fossil fuels, you know, 50, a"},{"startTime":3172.09,"endTime":3173.085,"body":"hundred years from now."},{"startTime":3173.295,"endTime":3176.91,"body":"Which it sounds like based on, on your talk, you do agree with, but maybe"},{"startTime":3176.91,"endTime":3180.525,"body":"to a different extent than, you know, a, a, a total or something like that."},{"startTime":3180.605,"endTime":3181.005,"body":"I don't know."},{"startTime":3181.385,"endTime":3183.925,"body":"I'm just curious how you, how you kind of respond to that rhetorical shift."},{"startTime":3184.225,"endTime":3184.445,"body":"Uh,"},{"startTime":3185.115,"endTime":3188.553,"body":"They, uh, I I would agree with 'em, we will still be using a hundred,"},{"startTime":3188.553,"endTime":3190.845,"body":"uh, fossil fuels in, in, in a hundred years time."},{"startTime":3190.845,"endTime":3193.805,"body":"The question is whether those fossil fuels will be causing global warming."},{"startTime":3194.275,"endTime":3197.925,"body":"They know how to stop the fossil fuels they sell from causing global warming."},{"startTime":3198.385,"endTime":3199.565,"body":"Um, they're just not doing it."},{"startTime":3200.105,"endTime":3203.247,"body":"So that's my answer is yes, if you think we're gonna have to carry on"},{"startTime":3203.247,"endTime":3206.18,"body":"using, using these things, then you should be, be stopping them causing global warming."},{"startTime":3206.18,"endTime":3209.445,"body":"That means disposing of the carbon dioxide that they generate back underground."},{"startTime":3210.105,"endTime":3213.685,"body":"Um, they say this will happen, but that somebody else will pay for it."},{"startTime":3214.745,"endTime":3216.405,"body":"That's the, that's the argument."},{"startTime":3216.705,"endTime":3221.229,"body":"Um, so, so my response to them is, if you want to keep selling your"},{"startTime":3221.229,"endTime":3224.245,"body":"stuff, what's your plan for stopping it causing global warming?"},{"startTime":3225.265,"endTime":3229.328,"body":"And by the way, one of the things I did learn about at sir week,"},{"startTime":3229.328,"endTime":3233.391,"body":"one fossil fuel company in the world does have a plan and has a commitment"},{"startTime":3233.391,"endTime":3237.454,"body":"and are putting money behind it to stop the fields they sell from causing global"},{"startTime":3237.454,"endTime":3237.725,"body":"warming."},{"startTime":3237.725,"endTime":3241.221,"body":"By 2050, they're gonna be putting a ton of carbon dioxide back into the ground"},{"startTime":3241.221,"endTime":3244.718,"body":"for every ton generated by the fields they sell by 2050, they're putting more, they're"},{"startTime":3244.718,"endTime":3248.214,"body":"putting about a billion dollars into the first plants of this kind in Texas to"},{"startTime":3248.214,"endTime":3251.245,"body":"actually capture carbon milks outta the atmosphere to start putting it back underground."},{"startTime":3252.025,"endTime":3254.205,"body":"Um, that companies, this is all public."},{"startTime":3254.205,"endTime":3256.085,"body":"That company is Occidental Petroleum."},{"startTime":3256.665,"endTime":3259.301,"body":"It also happens to be the only fossil fuel company in the world whose chief"},{"startTime":3259.301,"endTime":3260.005,"body":"executive is a woman."},{"startTime":3260.845,"endTime":3262.725,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e observation"},{"startTime":3263.715,"endTime":3269.72,"body":"Someone is asking about nuclear energy, um, no longer part of, uh, those four projections"},{"startTime":3269.72,"endTime":3274.525,"body":"to phase out, um, fossil fuel use energy, 1.5 degrees of warming."},{"startTime":3274.745,"endTime":3279.845,"body":"Um, is there a fear of, um, nuclear energy sort of justified with"},{"startTime":3279.845,"endTime":3280.005,"body":"You?"},{"startTime":3280.035,"endTime":3283.702,"body":"Yeah, I, I did actually think of having a fourth topic in this, on the"},{"startTime":3283.702,"endTime":3284.925,"body":"nuclear option as it were."},{"startTime":3285.145,"endTime":3291.726,"body":"Um, and because of course that's another one where you've gotta weigh up the, um,"},{"startTime":3291.726,"endTime":3298.307,"body":"geopolitical implications of a, a nuclear future, um, versus the, the benefits to the climate"},{"startTime":3298.307,"endTime":3304.888,"body":"that would actually be benefits to the climate to, to shifting our energy systems rapidly,"},{"startTime":3304.888,"endTime":3306.205,"body":"um, to nuclear."},{"startTime":3306.585,"endTime":3311.86,"body":"Um, but of course there are other consequences there, um, by and large, um, at"},{"startTime":3311.86,"endTime":3317.136,"body":"the moment where, where I stand on that is, um, the costs of the, there's,"},{"startTime":3317.136,"endTime":3321.005,"body":"there's cheaper ways of getting to where we need to go."},{"startTime":3321.425,"endTime":3328.365,"body":"Um, and in particular, fossil energy, getting rid of the CO2 is actually competitive."},{"startTime":3328.365,"endTime":3330.565,"body":"It's significantly cheaper actually, the nuclear energy at the moment."},{"startTime":3330.565,"endTime":3334.686,"body":"So nuclear energy has got a lot of work to do to actually even become"},{"startTime":3334.686,"endTime":3336.885,"body":"competitive with, as it were, safe fossil energy."},{"startTime":3337.305,"endTime":3341.421,"body":"Um, obviously fossil energy dumping the CO2 in the atmosphere is, is the cheapest of"},{"startTime":3341.421,"endTime":3342.245,"body":"of them all."},{"startTime":3342.245,"endTime":3343.245,"body":"But that's a bad idea."},{"startTime":3343.345,"endTime":3347.245,"body":"We, we could have kind of agreed that, but even if you get rid of"},{"startTime":3347.245,"endTime":3351.145,"body":"the CO2, um, capture it and put it back underground, you're still cheaper than nuclear"},{"startTime":3351.145,"endTime":3351.405,"body":"energy."},{"startTime":3351.745,"endTime":3355.473,"body":"And so that's why I think, for example, the amount of money the UK is"},{"startTime":3355.473,"endTime":3356.965,"body":"spending on Hinckley point is ridiculous."},{"startTime":3357.835,"endTime":3358.325,"body":"They are"},{"startTime":3358.805,"endTime":3359.005,"body":"Questions."},{"startTime":3361.385,"endTime":3362.165,"body":"Oh, good."},{"startTime":3362.615,"endTime":3363.045,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3363.825,"endTime":3370.247,"body":"I'm sorry, I didn't quite understand the fact that precipitation is carrying on at a"},{"startTime":3370.247,"endTime":3373.245,"body":"constant rate, but temperature is going up."},{"startTime":3373.555,"endTime":3376.485,"body":"What kind of effect is that gonna have on food production?"},{"startTime":3376.555,"endTime":3378.405,"body":"Okay, so, so yes, sorry."},{"startTime":3378.585,"endTime":3382.077,"body":"Um, I I, I I appreciate the opportunity to go back into that 'cause that"},{"startTime":3382.077,"endTime":3384.405,"body":"was, was the, the bit of physics in this lecture."},{"startTime":3384.665,"endTime":3388.945,"body":"Um, so, and, and I, um, and, um, the thing is that carbon dioxide's going"},{"startTime":3388.945,"endTime":3393.225,"body":"up at the same time, the temperature's going up and the level of carbon dioxide"},{"startTime":3393.225,"endTime":3396.365,"body":"in the atmosphere has a drying effect, a direct drying effect."},{"startTime":3396.715,"endTime":3397.005,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3397.035,"endTime":3400.818,"body":"Whereas temperature's going up, that has a moistening effect because, you know, and, and so"},{"startTime":3400.818,"endTime":3403.845,"body":"at the moment these two things are, uh, competing with each other."},{"startTime":3404.305,"endTime":3408.712,"body":"If you eliminated the, the point I was making was if you eliminated the warming"},{"startTime":3408.712,"endTime":3413.12,"body":"effect of the, of, of, of the CO2 by some sort of sunshield, um, you"},{"startTime":3413.12,"endTime":3415.765,"body":"would still get the drying effect of the CO2."},{"startTime":3415.825,"endTime":3420.675,"body":"So you, you would then swap that constant, uh, precipitation with a, a steady reduction"},{"startTime":3420.675,"endTime":3421.645,"body":"in precipitation mission."},{"startTime":3421.705,"endTime":3424.765,"body":"You know, so farmers are not be happy, so farmers are not gonna be happy."},{"startTime":3424.765,"endTime":3425.565,"body":"Well, farmers are never happy."},{"startTime":3425.885,"endTime":3427.605,"body":"I mean, that's, that's a golden rule."},{"startTime":3427.945,"endTime":3431.967,"body":"Um, but, uh, but, but yes, I mean, you know, we, the, the, the, we"},{"startTime":3431.967,"endTime":3433.845,"body":"are seeing impacts of the climate change."},{"startTime":3433.855,"endTime":3438.413,"body":"We're already getting on food production and there are side effects of geoengineering on food"},{"startTime":3438.413,"endTime":3439.325,"body":"production as well."},{"startTime":3439.485,"endTime":3443.658,"body":"I mean, we could, we could, there's, this entire conference is devoted to, you know,"},{"startTime":3443.658,"endTime":3445.885,"body":"quantifying the side effects of, of, of geoengineering."},{"startTime":3446.225,"endTime":3447.765,"body":"Um, the argument's always made."},{"startTime":3448.905,"endTime":3449.125,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3449.265,"endTime":3452.525,"body":"But it would be much worse to just let the climate warm up."},{"startTime":3453.625,"endTime":3456.085,"body":"And the, the, you can make that argument."},{"startTime":3456.665,"endTime":3461.103,"body":"But the problem is, I don't think that argument will work for the people who"},{"startTime":3461.103,"endTime":3465.541,"body":"feel they're being adversely affected by the global geoengineering program telling them, oh, but you'd"},{"startTime":3465.541,"endTime":3468.205,"body":"be much worse off if we weren't doing it."},{"startTime":3469.245,"endTime":3470.685,"body":"Probably won't work for people."},{"startTime":3471.265,"endTime":3476.085,"body":"Um, and that's why I see this as this uniquely destabilizing, uh, idea."},{"startTime":3478.265,"endTime":3483.575,"body":"Um, I think we might be able to take, um, I'm just going to take"},{"startTime":3483.575,"endTime":3488.886,"body":"one from Slido and then leave it to the floor for, in a global interconnected"},{"startTime":3488.886,"endTime":3494.196,"body":"system, our government thinking about the no, uh, on social and geopolitical effects of climate"},{"startTime":3494.196,"endTime":3498.445,"body":"change, mass migration, refugees, crisis, et cetera, war food shortages, et cetera."},{"startTime":3498.445,"endTime":3499.245,"body":"Do you think there is an awful,"},{"startTime":3499.315,"endTime":3500.245,"body":"Well, I hope they are \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3500.245,"endTime":3502.987,"body":"In fact, I, I, I hear there's some people hear from the f CDOs, so,"},{"startTime":3502.987,"endTime":3504.085,"body":"so hopefully they're thinking about this."},{"startTime":3504.285,"endTime":3505.405,"body":"'cause yes, there's lots to think about."},{"startTime":3505.745,"endTime":3508.957,"body":"We, we live in a, in a, in a, in a highly interconnect world, and"},{"startTime":3508.957,"endTime":3510.885,"body":"these are the impacts that we will become most."},{"startTime":3511.145,"endTime":3515.775,"body":"And we also live in a corner of the world where we can probably insulate"},{"startTime":3515.775,"endTime":3518.245,"body":"ourselves from the worst debates of climate change."},{"startTime":3518.585,"endTime":3522.327,"body":"Um, uh, uh, you know, this, this is a part of the world where yeah,"},{"startTime":3522.327,"endTime":3526.07,"body":"you know, we'll have a bit more flooding and that sort of thing, but it's"},{"startTime":3526.07,"endTime":3529.812,"body":"not, you know, it's not the same as the impacts that are likely to happen"},{"startTime":3529.812,"endTime":3533.555,"body":"in say, north Africa or, or, or the Asian subcontinent, um, and, uh, the Indian"},{"startTime":3533.555,"endTime":3533.805,"body":"subcontinent."},{"startTime":3534.025,"endTime":3539.378,"body":"So, so, you know, I think that's, uh, that's where this, this really fuels this"},{"startTime":3539.378,"endTime":3544.731,"body":"geopolitical tension because if you have rich countries that have overwhelmingly caused the problem, um,"},{"startTime":3544.731,"endTime":3550.084,"body":"putting up barriers to stop people moving from poor countries where these countries have literally"},{"startTime":3550.084,"endTime":3555.437,"body":"become uninhabitable because of, of, of warming, you know, as you see increasing regions of"},{"startTime":3555.437,"endTime":3560.79,"body":"the world, um, you know, we're seeing increasing regions of the world becoming, um, experiencing"},{"startTime":3560.79,"endTime":3563.645,"body":"temperatures where people simply cannot safely work outdoors."},{"startTime":3564.385,"endTime":3569.171,"body":"Um, if those, you know, were, was, were seeing increasing incidents of this, um, then"},{"startTime":3569.171,"endTime":3571.405,"body":"that's gonna be, that's gonna be difficult."},{"startTime":3571.525,"endTime":3573.245,"body":"'cause you're gonna be telling people, sorry, we changed the climate."},{"startTime":3573.265,"endTime":3575.045,"body":"You can't live where you're living, but you can't come to here either."},{"startTime":3575.785,"endTime":3579.325,"body":"Um, you, that's, I can see that that could end badly."},{"startTime":3581.075,"endTime":3581.725,"body":"More questions?"},{"startTime":3582.125,"endTime":3583.845,"body":"I think we have the agenda over there."},{"startTime":3583.845,"endTime":3584.245,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3586.345,"endTime":3586.565,"body":"Hi."},{"startTime":3586.705,"endTime":3591.665,"body":"Um, just a thought, I mean, in terms of yeah, sort of mitigating resentment, the"},{"startTime":3591.665,"endTime":3595.965,"body":"fact that there's 1% of the global population can dream 66% of emissions."},{"startTime":3596.845,"endTime":3600.502,"body":"I think that's about two and a half thousand people in the world according to"},{"startTime":3600.502,"endTime":3601.965,"body":"Forbes, um, rich list or something."},{"startTime":3602.545,"endTime":3606.765,"body":"But can we just, um, focus on reducing their emissions as opposed"},{"startTime":3606.785,"endTime":3608.005,"body":"Number people, the 1%?"},{"startTime":3608.005,"endTime":3608.085,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3608.185,"endTime":3612.952,"body":"Um, uh, I mean, if, if the 1% richest people in the world did lots"},{"startTime":3612.952,"endTime":3617.085,"body":"of slightly different things, um, the world would be a very different place."},{"startTime":3617.345,"endTime":3621.368,"body":"Um, and, but we don't, you know, this, this is, this is one of the"},{"startTime":3621.368,"endTime":3624.855,"body":"challenges we face is we, we can't, we can't control, um, these people."},{"startTime":3625.155,"endTime":3629.711,"body":"Um, and, uh, and probably we are, I mean, it's the 1% I'm talking about"},{"startTime":3629.711,"endTime":3630.015,"body":"here."},{"startTime":3630.015,"endTime":3633.13,"body":"So, so a lot of people, I mean, it's probably much of the population of"},{"startTime":3633.13,"endTime":3635.415,"body":"London probably is in, is in that, is in that 1%."},{"startTime":3636.035,"endTime":3640.554,"body":"Um, so, so, you know, it's important to recognize this is not, this is not"},{"startTime":3640.554,"endTime":3645.073,"body":"a few plutocrats, this is, this is a, a, a large chunk of the world"},{"startTime":3645.073,"endTime":3645.375,"body":"population."},{"startTime":3645.835,"endTime":3649.535,"body":"Um, and, but yes, I think we do need to think about climate solutions."},{"startTime":3649.915,"endTime":3655.927,"body":"We need to look at climate solutions to make sure that they're, you know, primarily"},{"startTime":3655.927,"endTime":3659.935,"body":"affecting the emissions of, of the, of the global rich."},{"startTime":3660.195,"endTime":3664.801,"body":"Um, so sort of back to fixing fossil fuels, for example, I wouldn't turn around"},{"startTime":3664.801,"endTime":3669.408,"body":"to, um, uh, Mozambique who's just discovered oil and gas to say you, um, you"},{"startTime":3669.408,"endTime":3674.015,"body":"have to put all the CO2 from your oil and gas back in the ground."},{"startTime":3674.055,"endTime":3677.215,"body":"I mean, you know, that's, um, we should do that in Britain first."},{"startTime":3677.555,"endTime":3679.015,"body":"You know, we, we could do that in Britain."},{"startTime":3679.115,"endTime":3682.22,"body":"We, we could, we could stop the oil and gas we produce in Britain from"},{"startTime":3682.22,"endTime":3683.255,"body":"causing global warming relatively quickly."},{"startTime":3684.355,"endTime":3688.255,"body":"Um, in fact, I, I've said this fact before, but it's worth remembering for the"},{"startTime":3688.255,"endTime":3690.855,"body":"amount of money we were paying for gas last year."},{"startTime":3691.035,"endTime":3694.572,"body":"You could have captured every single molecule of Carbondale outside that gas generated back outta"},{"startTime":3694.572,"endTime":3696.695,"body":"the atmosphere, put it back under the North Sea."},{"startTime":3696.695,"endTime":3699.807,"body":"So all of the natural gas use in the UK would've caused no global warming"},{"startTime":3699.807,"endTime":3700.015,"body":"whatsoever."},{"startTime":3700.155,"endTime":3704.396,"body":"And you could've done that twice over with the amount we were paying for natural"},{"startTime":3704.396,"endTime":3705.245,"body":"gas last year."},{"startTime":3705.505,"endTime":3707.725,"body":"Now, admittedly, we were paying a lot for natural gas last year."},{"startTime":3707.755,"endTime":3709.645,"body":"That was even with the government price cap."},{"startTime":3709.875,"endTime":3710.165,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":3710.545,"endTime":3711.765,"body":"But that puts it in perspective."},{"startTime":3712.115,"endTime":3713.325,"body":"This is a fixable problem."},{"startTime":3714.745,"endTime":3718.479,"body":"But you've gotta somebody, and basically some government has to have the, the guts to"},{"startTime":3718.479,"endTime":3721.965,"body":"stand up and say, no, okay, this is, this is gonna have to change."},{"startTime":3722.585,"endTime":3726.085,"body":"And we're gonna talk about this, um, in the next, um, shall"},{"startTime":3726.085,"endTime":3726.765,"body":"We take another one?"},{"startTime":3726.855,"endTime":3727.405,"body":"Shall we push?"},{"startTime":3727.525,"endTime":3730.245,"body":"I I, I'd love to hear this question 'cause it's obviously, uh, \u003claugh\u003e"},{"startTime":3731.805,"endTime":3732.045,"body":"Question fees."},{"startTime":3734.185,"endTime":3739.574,"body":"How about, uh, something like Lowe's that produce an item or an energy or a"},{"startTime":3739.574,"endTime":3744.605,"body":"gas are responsible for the disposal of, of the effect in the first place."},{"startTime":3744.905,"endTime":3750.674,"body":"So the Gaar is, may be supplying, uh, a great chunk of the gas we"},{"startTime":3750.674,"endTime":3756.444,"body":"are burning outta Milford Haven and wherever, but they should be responsible for doing the,"},{"startTime":3756.444,"endTime":3761.445,"body":"uh, equation that takes the CO2 produced from their product out of it."},{"startTime":3761.755,"endTime":3763.565,"body":"Same as if I was to buy a car."},{"startTime":3764.105,"endTime":3767.798,"body":"The disposal of the car at the end of the day is an issue as"},{"startTime":3767.798,"endTime":3768.045,"body":"well."},{"startTime":3768.345,"endTime":3768.885,"body":"How about that?"},{"startTime":3769.115,"endTime":3770.565,"body":"That is a genius idea."},{"startTime":3770.825,"endTime":3776.714,"body":"And I commend you to Alan Frame and Mason 2009 where we suggested the case"},{"startTime":3776.714,"endTime":3778.285,"body":"for mandatory CO2 sequestration."},{"startTime":3778.785,"endTime":3783.107,"body":"Um, and, uh, um, and I can also, so we called it the carbon takeback"},{"startTime":3783.107,"endTime":3785.125,"body":"obligation, or that's, that's its new name."},{"startTime":3785.585,"endTime":3789.525,"body":"And ultimately, I firmly believe this is actually how we're gonna solve the problem."},{"startTime":3789.795,"endTime":3792.165,"body":"It's gonna have to become a condition, a licensing condition."},{"startTime":3792.265,"endTime":3794.285,"body":"If you want to dig it up, you've gotta put it back."},{"startTime":3795.505,"endTime":3797.205,"body":"And, and it's, it's that simple."},{"startTime":3797.505,"endTime":3802.405,"body":"By 2050, nobody should be allowed to sell stuff that causes global warming."},{"startTime":3802.705,"endTime":3806.087,"body":"So if you wanna sell fossil fuels, you've gotta get rid of the CO2, either"},{"startTime":3806.087,"endTime":3809.245,"body":"you own the CO2 or somebody, or go capture it back outta the atmosphere."},{"startTime":3809.445,"endTime":3813.545,"body":"I don't care, as long as you prove that it's been got rid of, that's,"},{"startTime":3813.545,"endTime":3814.365,"body":"that's the solution."},{"startTime":3814.985,"endTime":3818.481,"body":"And what was frustrating at Sir Week in Houston was the number of people who"},{"startTime":3818.481,"endTime":3821.045,"body":"I said this to, and they all said, yeah, that's obvious."},{"startTime":3821.465,"endTime":3822.725,"body":"We know that's gonna happen, \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3823.395,"endTime":3823.685,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3823.995,"endTime":3824.805,"body":"They said, yeah, of course."},{"startTime":3825.185,"endTime":3826.765,"body":"And, and when it's compulsory, we'll do it."},{"startTime":3827.265,"endTime":3828.565,"body":"And I said, would you say that in public?"},{"startTime":3828.985,"endTime":3830.165,"body":"And they said, no, \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3831.715,"endTime":3834.445,"body":"Well, thank you very much for this fantastic lecture for."}]}