{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":5.105,"endTime":9.245,"body":"So how do we survive technological change?"},{"startTime":9.755,"endTime":15.161,"body":"This question has been at the heart of my lectures this year and I know"},{"startTime":15.161,"endTime":18.045,"body":"that you have other questions about the future."},{"startTime":18.805,"endTime":19.925,"body":"Foremost among them."},{"startTime":20.595,"endTime":26.565,"body":"When are the killer robots taking over and where is the flying car?"},{"startTime":26.885,"endTime":27.765,"body":"I was promised."},{"startTime":29.985,"endTime":33.275,"body":"Will we ever be able to see beyond the current observable universe?"},{"startTime":33.695,"endTime":34.755,"body":"Oh, it's much worse than that."},{"startTime":34.855,"endTime":36.595,"body":"The observable universe is shrinking."},{"startTime":37.175,"endTime":41.625,"body":"If you want to know what are my odds of winning the lottery, you come"},{"startTime":41.625,"endTime":42.515,"body":"straight to probability."},{"startTime":42.585,"endTime":46.755,"body":"Yeah, because probability is all about how likely or not events are to happen."},{"startTime":47.315,"endTime":51.723,"body":"I think the chance of there being an undiscovered second species very like humans out"},{"startTime":51.723,"endTime":54.075,"body":"there in the world today is pretty slender."},{"startTime":54.105,"endTime":54.595,"body":"However,"},{"startTime":55.255,"endTime":56.995,"body":"And these are the pictures if you haven't seen them."},{"startTime":57.155,"endTime":58.515,"body":"I mean New York was orange."},{"startTime":58.815,"endTime":59.795,"body":"The air was orange."},{"startTime":60.025,"endTime":63.875,"body":"They said one day out in that air was like smoking a pack of cigarettes."},{"startTime":64.015,"endTime":67.075,"body":"It had the same effect on the lungs as smoking a number of cigarettes."},{"startTime":67.075,"endTime":70.201,"body":"So people who'd never smoked in their life were suddenly going to suffer some of"},{"startTime":70.201,"endTime":71.035,"body":"the same health effects."},{"startTime":71.815,"endTime":76.099,"body":"Any further questions is a brand new podcast from Gresham College, a place where we"},{"startTime":76.099,"endTime":78.955,"body":"ask our speakers all of your questions that went unanswered."},{"startTime":78.955,"endTime":84.688,"body":"Following their lecture, guests have included Ronald Hutton, Robin May, Chris Lin tot, Sarah Hart"},{"startTime":84.688,"endTime":85.835,"body":"and Maggie snowing."},{"startTime":86.295,"endTime":87.195,"body":"Any further questions?"},{"startTime":87.455,"endTime":90.235,"body":"All episodes are available wherever you listen to your podcasts."},{"startTime":97.035,"endTime":105.095,"body":"We are told that it is difficult to make predictions especially about the future."},{"startTime":106.165,"endTime":114.13,"body":"This is a a witty aphorism that's variously attributed to Albert Einstein, Danish physicist, Neils"},{"startTime":114.13,"endTime":116.255,"body":"bore, and several others."},{"startTime":116.955,"endTime":120.055,"body":"And it's an expression of uncertainty."},{"startTime":120.955,"endTime":128.884,"body":"It implies that predictions must be a hundred percent accurate in order to be useful"},{"startTime":128.884,"endTime":136.815,"body":"and that failure to anticipate the unexpected makes any attempt to consider the future futile."},{"startTime":137.755,"endTime":146.985,"body":"In short, the world is a volatile and uncertain place where global shocks are common,"},{"startTime":146.985,"endTime":156.215,"body":"but we can chart scientific and technological progress and better than ever before, phenomena such"},{"startTime":156.215,"endTime":164.215,"body":"as the weather are now more intelligible and predictable thanks to information technology."},{"startTime":164.975,"endTime":173.415,"body":"Increasingly we also have access to databases of information on technologies that are in development."},{"startTime":174.315,"endTime":182.028,"body":"So with specialist input we can evaluate or at least speculate upon the prospects of"},{"startTime":182.028,"endTime":187.685,"body":"weather and perhaps even when they may come into mainstream usage."},{"startTime":190.105,"endTime":196.309,"body":"In a world where it can come to market so rapidly, we need to be"},{"startTime":196.309,"endTime":200.445,"body":"able to anticipate how it could be used and misused."},{"startTime":201.395,"endTime":207.054,"body":"When I was working in the police, I found that cyber criminals made use of"},{"startTime":207.054,"endTime":211.205,"body":"most new tech pretty much as soon as it became available."},{"startTime":211.825,"endTime":218.701,"body":"So it was a logical step to try and anticipate what they would do next"},{"startTime":218.701,"endTime":223.285,"body":"to scan the horizon for technology that was being developed."},{"startTime":224.045,"endTime":226.325,"body":"I began to analyze patents."},{"startTime":227.085,"endTime":233.967,"body":"I reviewed published academic papers, and I followed media coverage to ascertain what people were"},{"startTime":233.967,"endTime":234.885,"body":"working on."},{"startTime":235.625,"endTime":242.03,"body":"And as I did, it quickly became clear to me that it doesn't develop in"},{"startTime":242.03,"endTime":242.885,"body":"a vacuum."},{"startTime":243.945,"endTime":250.485,"body":"It interacts with and impacts upon its environment and on other technologies."},{"startTime":252.385,"endTime":258.893,"body":"So it wasn't going to be enough simply to consider in isolation the future of"},{"startTime":258.893,"endTime":262.365,"body":"social media or the future of artificial intelligence."},{"startTime":262.945,"endTime":269.263,"body":"I'd need to build a model in which I could describe those interactions and those"},{"startTime":269.263,"endTime":269.685,"body":"impacts."},{"startTime":270.525,"endTime":277.171,"body":"I would need to build scenarios for possible futures, and in order to do that,"},{"startTime":277.171,"endTime":282.045,"body":"I would need to enter the mysterious world of futures thinking."},{"startTime":283.755,"endTime":291.23,"body":"Futures thinking is a discipline that seeks to apply those formalized methodologies to how we"},{"startTime":291.23,"endTime":292.725,"body":"consider inevitable change."},{"startTime":293.875,"endTime":302.616,"body":"Some academic researchers locate its origins in ritual attempts to foresee coming events such as"},{"startTime":302.616,"endTime":304.365,"body":"divination and astrology."},{"startTime":305.425,"endTime":311.5,"body":"But the modern discipline grew in the mid 20th century outta the need to anticipate"},{"startTime":311.5,"endTime":316.765,"body":"changes in the wider world that could impact public policy and business operations."},{"startTime":317.675,"endTime":324.997,"body":"With the Cold War as its backdrop, its no coincidence that futures thinking as a"},{"startTime":324.997,"endTime":332.32,"body":"planning tool was first popular in offshoots of military departments like the research and development"},{"startTime":332.32,"endTime":339.643,"body":"the Rand Corporation and in multinational companies like Shell, the futurists of the sixties were"},{"startTime":339.643,"endTime":344.525,"body":"understandably attracted to the year 2000 as a time horizon."},{"startTime":345.345,"endTime":354.125,"body":"In 1967, Herman Carnes and Anthony Jaya's bestselling book presented a framework for speculation."},{"startTime":354.185,"endTime":361.366,"body":"On the next 33 years, there were even board games centered around this kind of"},{"startTime":361.366,"endTime":361.845,"body":"forecasting."},{"startTime":361.865,"endTime":368.622,"body":"Here's one, it's called Future and it was produced in 1966 by the Kaiser Aluminum"},{"startTime":368.622,"endTime":371.325,"body":"and Chemical Corporation in the us."},{"startTime":371.805,"endTime":375.757,"body":"I picked this one up, um, on eBay actually in the states when I was"},{"startTime":375.757,"endTime":376.285,"body":"over there."},{"startTime":377.435,"endTime":385.023,"body":"Players are asked to place bets in the billions of dollars on the probability of"},{"startTime":385.023,"endTime":388.565,"body":"60 possibilities of the next 20 years."},{"startTime":388.705,"endTime":394.921,"body":"And these are very much of their time because they were selected by futurists at"},{"startTime":394.921,"endTime":396.165,"body":"the Rand Corporation."},{"startTime":396.455,"endTime":402.267,"body":"There is more than a little US military group think going on here, but let's"},{"startTime":402.267,"endTime":404.205,"body":"pick out a few examples."},{"startTime":404.305,"endTime":413.405,"body":"So imagine by 1986, drugs to control personality are widely accepted and used."},{"startTime":413.825,"endTime":420.645,"body":"That's given a probability of 60% short term weather forecasting is highly reliable."},{"startTime":420.865,"endTime":423.085,"body":"That's also 60%."},{"startTime":423.145,"endTime":427.715,"body":"And if you remember the great storm of 1987, you may think we didn't quite"},{"startTime":427.715,"endTime":428.325,"body":"get there."},{"startTime":430.275,"endTime":438.431,"body":"Wide practical uses are made of lasers in industry and medicine, 80% household robots are"},{"startTime":438.431,"endTime":443.325,"body":"widely used and facsimile newspapers are printed at home."},{"startTime":443.735,"endTime":450.605,"body":"40% racial barriers are effectively eliminated 40%."},{"startTime":452.005,"endTime":459.485,"body":"A staggered work week replaces Monday through Friday standard 20% and not to be forgotten."},{"startTime":460.465,"endTime":465.485,"body":"An economic and military alliance exists between the US and the USSR."},{"startTime":465.745,"endTime":467.605,"body":"That's also quite low."},{"startTime":468.545,"endTime":475.134,"body":"Um, 3D TV and brain computer interfaces get a look in and the chance element"},{"startTime":475.134,"endTime":480.845,"body":"of the game is governed by throwing an icosahedron a 20 sided die."},{"startTime":481.775,"endTime":487.166,"body":"There are also news events that serve as wild cards, some of which are slightly"},{"startTime":487.166,"endTime":488.245,"body":"wackier than others."},{"startTime":488.825,"endTime":496.85,"body":"Um, they include UFO lands, no one aboard new pills make time travel possible car"},{"startTime":496.85,"endTime":503.805,"body":"floats over magnetic highway and new election will be determined by national computer."},{"startTime":505.505,"endTime":511.325,"body":"So it puts a futuristic spin on strategy games like risk and diplomacy."},{"startTime":511.905,"endTime":518.707,"body":"And as the creators themselves acknowledge it's not exactly fun for all the family, we"},{"startTime":518.707,"endTime":525.509,"body":"might describe it now as serious gaming designed partly as a training aid to encourage"},{"startTime":525.509,"endTime":532.311,"body":"employees to think about the future of their organizations, but it also has a crowdsourcing"},{"startTime":532.311,"endTime":532.765,"body":"element."},{"startTime":533.105,"endTime":538.734,"body":"It asked players to send in their answers about what they thought the world would"},{"startTime":538.734,"endTime":539.485,"body":"be like."},{"startTime":539.585,"endTime":544.805,"body":"In 1986, my paper form was never filled in."},{"startTime":545.665,"endTime":549.736,"body":"So if anyone does have a time machine that I can borrow, I'm willing to"},{"startTime":549.736,"endTime":551.365,"body":"go 50 50 on any winnings."},{"startTime":552.445,"endTime":558.61,"body":"Although I should point out that my recollections of 1986 are rather niche and I'm"},{"startTime":558.61,"endTime":564.775,"body":"not sure that knowledge of the UK pop charts, commodore computer games and Muppet related"},{"startTime":564.775,"endTime":568.885,"body":"trivia are exactly what the Kaiser Corporation was looking for."},{"startTime":570.985,"endTime":579.132,"body":"Now, games like these blend scientific method and imagination much like the best science fiction,"},{"startTime":579.132,"endTime":587.28,"body":"they take us away from forecasts that are linear projections on individual events and technologies"},{"startTime":587.28,"endTime":594.885,"body":"to scenarios in which different factors and developments converge and impact upon each other."},{"startTime":596.325,"endTime":602.97,"body":"A player of this game was expected to reason, for example, that should one event"},{"startTime":602.97,"endTime":609.615,"body":"occur entitled more than 120 million cars on the road, this might increase the probability"},{"startTime":609.615,"endTime":614.045,"body":"of another event that cars would be banned from cities."},{"startTime":615.025,"endTime":620.365,"body":"In hindsight, we know that the one doesn't necessarily result in the other."},{"startTime":621.245,"endTime":629.845,"body":"Nevertheless, in the last 60 years, governments, international organizations and corporations have become more interested"},{"startTime":629.845,"endTime":635.005,"body":"in building these kinds of scenarios that anticipate change."},{"startTime":636.105,"endTime":643.427,"body":"And it's a practice that involves imagining a world in which certain features are plausibly"},{"startTime":643.427,"endTime":649.285,"body":"present than considering their impact on society and how they might interact."},{"startTime":650.785,"endTime":655.942,"body":"It has a number of advantages, one of which is that it can uncover issues"},{"startTime":655.942,"endTime":659.725,"body":"we might have missed if we'd considered those technologies in isolation."},{"startTime":660.075,"endTime":666.079,"body":"It's also, dare I say, more fun for the people doing it and it's more"},{"startTime":666.079,"endTime":672.084,"body":"engaging for the audience, which is really important if we want someone to do something"},{"startTime":672.084,"endTime":673.285,"body":"useful with it."},{"startTime":674.825,"endTime":680.765,"body":"But it wouldn't be robust enough if it were just the product of my imagination."},{"startTime":680.865,"endTime":689.627,"body":"The scientific basis lies in systematic review of information on technologies in developments and in"},{"startTime":689.627,"endTime":694.885,"body":"validation of those timeframes in the scenarios by experts."},{"startTime":696.225,"endTime":702.392,"body":"In a project I worked on a few years ago, I wanted to know whether"},{"startTime":702.392,"endTime":708.56,"body":"it was reasonable to expect that by 2030 we would print our own food and"},{"startTime":708.56,"endTime":710.205,"body":"prescription drugs at home."},{"startTime":711.785,"endTime":716.325,"body":"So I asked industry experts and was guided by their consensus."},{"startTime":716.875,"endTime":723.566,"body":"This is otherwise known as the Delphi technique and it features prominently in some well-known"},{"startTime":723.566,"endTime":729.365,"body":"tech futures projects such as the Pew Research Centers future of the Internet."},{"startTime":731.905,"endTime":739.274,"body":"But there is a course, um, a parallel evolution in which fiction writers turn their"},{"startTime":739.274,"endTime":746.644,"body":"attention to future and alternative worlds from the fantasy writers of ancient Greece and Rome"},{"startTime":746.644,"endTime":754.013,"body":"through the developments of science fiction at the hands of Joven and HG Wells in"},{"startTime":754.013,"endTime":761.383,"body":"the 19th and early 20th centuries to a plethora of future oriented novels, movies, TV"},{"startTime":761.383,"endTime":765.805,"body":"shows in the late 20th and early 21st centuries."},{"startTime":766.105,"endTime":773.645,"body":"We have a rich history of the future in the popular imagination and we have"},{"startTime":773.645,"endTime":777.165,"body":"to some degree all become futures thinkers."},{"startTime":778.425,"endTime":786.171,"body":"The technology press is now full of predictions that science fiction writers got right including"},{"startTime":786.171,"endTime":792.885,"body":"the use of debit cards which first make an appearance in Edward Bellamy's."},{"startTime":793.185,"endTime":803.403,"body":"Hugely popular 1888 novel looking backwards and video chat first described in Em Foster's 1909"},{"startTime":803.403,"endTime":804.085,"body":"novella."},{"startTime":804.345,"endTime":808.405,"body":"The machine stops more often than not."},{"startTime":808.985,"endTime":812.365,"body":"The architects of our tech future are themselves."},{"startTime":812.715,"endTime":821.175,"body":"Science fiction fans, electronic tablets are rumored to have been inspired by props in Stanley"},{"startTime":821.175,"endTime":829.636,"body":"Kubrick's 2001 a Space Odyssey in Belgium, a national telecoms provider assumed the name of"},{"startTime":829.636,"endTime":838.096,"body":"the rogue artificial intelligence in the Terminator franchise Skynet in the US the manufacturers of"},{"startTime":838.096,"endTime":842.045,"body":"a meal replacement drink called its Soylent."},{"startTime":842.965,"endTime":849.05,"body":"Apparently in homage to the 1973 movie, Soylent Green about a cannibalistic dystopia, I'm not"},{"startTime":849.05,"endTime":851.485,"body":"sure what their sales were like."},{"startTime":852.445,"endTime":858.586,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e Tesla's cyber truck is reported to have been inspired by the hover cars in"},{"startTime":858.586,"endTime":859.405,"body":"Blade Runner."},{"startTime":859.985,"endTime":867.589,"body":"And of course the word metaverse currently used to describe immersive online environments has been"},{"startTime":867.589,"endTime":871.645,"body":"lifted directly from Neil Stevenson's novel Snow Crash."},{"startTime":872.705,"endTime":879.845,"body":"So it's clear that this collective imagination is directly shaping the development of technology."},{"startTime":881.185,"endTime":888.098,"body":"And much like science fiction writers, when we build scenarios, we can bring them to"},{"startTime":888.098,"endTime":891.325,"body":"life by considering experience from different perspectives."},{"startTime":892.625,"endTime":900.557,"body":"For a, a project that I led in 2012 at the European Police Agency, we"},{"startTime":900.557,"endTime":908.49,"body":"imagined it in 2020 from the perspective of the fictional government of the Republic of"},{"startTime":908.49,"endTime":916.423,"body":"South s, which was a relatively small middle income European state, but we also created"},{"startTime":916.423,"endTime":924.356,"body":"a citizen consumer called Kinko and two businesses, ESIS Systems, a manufacturer with quite a"},{"startTime":924.356,"endTime":929.645,"body":"complex supply chain and an online service provider called Kucha."},{"startTime":930.465,"endTime":936.025,"body":"And if you're wondering where that name Kucha came from, it was in fact the"},{"startTime":936.025,"endTime":940.845,"body":"only fruit-based name that hadn't already been trademarked by a big tech company."},{"startTime":943.145,"endTime":949.325,"body":"For a more recent project, we created the fictional city state of new San Ban."},{"startTime":950.145,"endTime":954.085,"body":"Now this one is at the cutting edge of tech adoption."},{"startTime":954.155,"endTime":960.693,"body":"It's California meets Singapore, um, a little bit like San Fran Sochi in Disney's big"},{"startTime":960.693,"endTime":961.565,"body":"Hero six."},{"startTime":962.225,"endTime":968.055,"body":"And in the accompanying video series that was produced by the cybersecurity company Trend Micro,"},{"startTime":968.055,"endTime":971.165,"body":"it even had its own breakfast news show."},{"startTime":973.545,"endTime":981.487,"body":"Now technology has always been central to the scenarios envisaged by science fiction writers and"},{"startTime":981.487,"endTime":983.605,"body":"by futures thinkers alike."},{"startTime":984.235,"endTime":991.775,"body":"Someone like HG Wells had a foot in both of those camps and at the"},{"startTime":991.775,"endTime":999.315,"body":"turn of the 20th century his book Anticipations opened with a forecast on locomotion and"},{"startTime":999.315,"endTime":1004.845,"body":"the economic, social, environmental and military impacts of the mechanical revolution."},{"startTime":1006.485,"endTime":1014.788,"body":"Alvin Toffler in his bestselling 1970 book on the Digital revolution, future shock identified technology"},{"startTime":1014.788,"endTime":1023.091,"body":"as that great growling engine of change, an indisputably a major force behind the accelerative"},{"startTime":1023.091,"endTime":1023.645,"body":"thrust."},{"startTime":1024.315,"endTime":1025.723,"body":"It's quite macho, isn't it?"},{"startTime":1026.983,"endTime":1033.33,"body":"And as soon as we consider which information technologies are likely to be present to"},{"startTime":1033.33,"endTime":1039.676,"body":"some degree in 2030 based on the current signals that we have now, it's immediately"},{"startTime":1039.676,"endTime":1043.483,"body":"evident that they're also likely to accelerate each other."},{"startTime":1044.785,"endTime":1053.422,"body":"The seamless connectivity promised by 5G, six G and low earth orbit satellites will enable"},{"startTime":1053.422,"endTime":1058.605,"body":"the proliferation of semi-autonomous and perhaps even autonomous vehicles."},{"startTime":1059.915,"endTime":1066.925,"body":"Edge computing will enable the massive internet of things to operate without centralized control."},{"startTime":1068.205,"endTime":1076.642,"body":"Artificial intelligence with greater automation and less human involvement, as we saw in a previous"},{"startTime":1076.642,"endTime":1077.205,"body":"lecture."},{"startTime":1077.755,"endTime":1083.285,"body":"Devices connected in this way include brain computer interfaces and robotics."},{"startTime":1084.905,"endTime":1092.877,"body":"The future of extended reality or metaverses depends to some extent on that 5G and"},{"startTime":1092.877,"endTime":1100.849,"body":"six G connectivity, but also on blockchain based technologies such as non fungible tokens, NFTs"},{"startTime":1100.849,"endTime":1108.822,"body":"to establish the ownership of virtual property and generative AI to populate virtual worlds with"},{"startTime":1108.822,"endTime":1109.885,"body":"synthetic individuals."},{"startTime":1112.185,"endTime":1115.205,"body":"Now the difficult part here is the timeline."},{"startTime":1116.765,"endTime":1121.415,"body":"Companies and governments don't just want to know what to plan for, they also want"},{"startTime":1121.415,"endTime":1122.965,"body":"to know when it's coming."},{"startTime":1123.475,"endTime":1131.012,"body":"This is big business for market analysts and some of the larger international consultancies, but"},{"startTime":1131.012,"endTime":1138.55,"body":"distinguishing dead certs from overblown ideas can be tricky, particularly when big tech is so"},{"startTime":1138.55,"endTime":1141.565,"body":"prone to hype its own products."},{"startTime":1142.435,"endTime":1148.672,"body":"Hype is so ingrained in the culture that market analysts Gartner have developed a tool"},{"startTime":1148.672,"endTime":1154.909,"body":"to help organizations see through it and they call it the hype cycle for emerging"},{"startTime":1154.909,"endTime":1155.325,"body":"technologies."},{"startTime":1156.675,"endTime":1164.35,"body":"Much hyped technologies can fall by the wayside, even when they're subject to considerable investment"},{"startTime":1164.35,"endTime":1165.885,"body":"and intensive developments."},{"startTime":1166.435,"endTime":1174.137,"body":"They may never survive the dissent from the peak of inflated expectations to the trough"},{"startTime":1174.137,"endTime":1175.165,"body":"of disillusionment."},{"startTime":1175.185,"endTime":1177.085,"body":"It sounds like something from Lord of the Rings, doesn't it?"},{"startTime":1177.085,"endTime":1178.405,"body":"The trough of disillusionment."},{"startTime":1180.405,"endTime":1188.855,"body":"I have a sticker on my laptop that commemorates the first successful flight in 2016"},{"startTime":1188.855,"endTime":1193.925,"body":"of Aquila Aquila was Meta's experimental solar powered drone."},{"startTime":1194.465,"endTime":1199.917,"body":"And the idea was that these drones were provide internet access in remote parts of"},{"startTime":1199.917,"endTime":1200.645,"body":"the world."},{"startTime":1201.355,"endTime":1207.525,"body":"They were an incredible feat of aeronautical engineering and I was lucky enough to see"},{"startTime":1207.525,"endTime":1213.696,"body":"one in real life, albeit not airborne like this one calling it a drone almost"},{"startTime":1213.696,"endTime":1216.165,"body":"as its something of a disservice."},{"startTime":1216.825,"endTime":1223.287,"body":"It had a wingspan bigger than a Boeing 7 3 7 and it was designed"},{"startTime":1223.287,"endTime":1227.165,"body":"to fly at altitudes between 60,000 and 90,000 feet."},{"startTime":1227.305,"endTime":1229.605,"body":"So above commercial air traffic."},{"startTime":1231.065,"endTime":1239.125,"body":"But just two years after the first flight, meta announced that its research facility in"},{"startTime":1239.125,"endTime":1247.185,"body":"Bridgewater in Somerset, in fact would close in 2021, Google's balloon based rival project Loon"},{"startTime":1247.185,"endTime":1255.245,"body":"suffered the same fate despite being successfully deployed to restore internet access after natural disasters."},{"startTime":1256.365,"endTime":1265.047,"body":"Developments in rival technologies such as SpaceX's, starlink, satellite based infrastructure and continued expansion of"},{"startTime":1265.047,"endTime":1273.729,"body":"undersea cables and aerial fiber projects appear to have proven more practical and more scalable"},{"startTime":1273.729,"endTime":1276.045,"body":"so far at least."},{"startTime":1277.195,"endTime":1284.444,"body":"Then we have the Hyperloop one originally proposed by Elon Musk in 2013 and envisaged"},{"startTime":1284.444,"endTime":1291.693,"body":"as a supersonic inter city rail system that would transport passengers in capsules on a"},{"startTime":1291.693,"endTime":1298.942,"body":"cushion of air in low pressure tubes, thereby cutting the journey time between Los Angeles"},{"startTime":1298.942,"endTime":1302.325,"body":"and San Francisco to just 35 minutes."},{"startTime":1303.795,"endTime":1306.605,"body":"This project had backing from Richard Branson."},{"startTime":1307.345,"endTime":1314.067,"body":"Um, there had been a prototype constructed in Nevada and there had been successful tests"},{"startTime":1314.067,"endTime":1319.445,"body":"with human passengers, but nevertheless, the company was shut down in 2023."},{"startTime":1320.735,"endTime":1328.356,"body":"Other hyper loop projects do remain in development around the world, but the withdrawal of"},{"startTime":1328.356,"endTime":1335.978,"body":"that highest profile developer has understandably been interpreted as evidence that the technology itself is"},{"startTime":1335.978,"endTime":1343.6,"body":"unfeasible, but some other technologies can be remarkably persistent in their efforts to break through"},{"startTime":1343.6,"endTime":1345.125,"body":"to the mainstream."},{"startTime":1345.955,"endTime":1351.565,"body":"Virtual reality was first touted as the next big thing in the 1990s."},{"startTime":1351.765,"endTime":1359.565,"body":"I remember watching it being showcased in an addition of the BBC TV program, tomorrow's"},{"startTime":1359.565,"endTime":1366.845,"body":"World in 1991 as archive media coverage of virtuality and other contemporary hardware records."},{"startTime":1367.545,"endTime":1376.601,"body":"The experience was very tethered, rather uncomfortable, pretty heavy and suffered from very low frame"},{"startTime":1376.601,"endTime":1377.205,"body":"rates."},{"startTime":1377.945,"endTime":1385.305,"body":"But fast forward 30 years and we're starting to see stories of lightweight wireless headsets"},{"startTime":1385.305,"endTime":1391.685,"body":"like the Apple Vision Pro ruining intimate relationships because they are so absorbing."},{"startTime":1393.185,"endTime":1400.551,"body":"As we explored in my metaverse lecture last year, we humans have always sought immersive"},{"startTime":1400.551,"endTime":1406.445,"body":"experience, whether that's in panoramic paintings, cinema, 3D viewers or video games."},{"startTime":1407.305,"endTime":1414.261,"body":"The basic desire has remained constant, but it's taken time for the IT to catch"},{"startTime":1414.261,"endTime":1414.725,"body":"up."},{"startTime":1415.435,"endTime":1424.219,"body":"Current VR applications now promise better graphics, lower latency, less na, and a more social"},{"startTime":1424.219,"endTime":1424.805,"body":"experience."},{"startTime":1425.145,"endTime":1433.401,"body":"And that's because we have better internet connectivity than we did in the 1990s even"},{"startTime":1433.401,"endTime":1441.658,"body":"so it's still unclear whether VR will take off this time around or whether it"},{"startTime":1441.658,"endTime":1449.365,"body":"will experience it yet another winter developments outside it can accelerate or hinder it."},{"startTime":1450.385,"endTime":1456.422,"body":"During the Covid pandemic, lockdowns and travel bans resulted in a huge increase in the"},{"startTime":1456.422,"endTime":1460.045,"body":"use of video calling tools like Zoom and Teams."},{"startTime":1461.255,"endTime":1463.885,"body":"Their popularity didn't diminish."},{"startTime":1464.315,"endTime":1465.845,"body":"Once the lockdowns ended."},{"startTime":1466.385,"endTime":1472.235,"body":"As many companies realized they could cut travel and facilities costs by keeping workers at"},{"startTime":1472.235,"endTime":1476.525,"body":"home and many workers were reluctant to return to the office."},{"startTime":1476.995,"endTime":1484.61,"body":"Full-time Concern for the climate is also beginning to have an impact on people's willingness"},{"startTime":1484.61,"endTime":1492.226,"body":"to travel long distances and we might naturally expect that this will accelerate further adoption"},{"startTime":1492.226,"endTime":1499.841,"body":"of digital technologies, but the dynamic between it and the climate appears to be more"},{"startTime":1499.841,"endTime":1501.365,"body":"complex than that."},{"startTime":1502.765,"endTime":1510.183,"body":"Shifting our work and our social meetings to virtual worlds may reduce consumption of fossil"},{"startTime":1510.183,"endTime":1517.601,"body":"fuels for transport, but additional processing requires additional power and many more servers that need"},{"startTime":1517.601,"endTime":1519.085,"body":"to be cooled."},{"startTime":1520.385,"endTime":1527.611,"body":"Big tech companies have traditionally favored colder climates for their massive data centers, but so"},{"startTime":1527.611,"endTime":1534.837,"body":"too have cryptocurrency miners Iceland provides our current signal of of how this tension might"},{"startTime":1534.837,"endTime":1536.765,"body":"evolve in the future."},{"startTime":1537.625,"endTime":1544.925,"body":"In 2018, it became the first country in the world to expend more energy on"},{"startTime":1544.925,"endTime":1547.845,"body":"cryptocurrency mining than on household usage."},{"startTime":1548.625,"endTime":1556.365,"body":"Now there are specific circumstances to that, including a population of under 400,000 people and"},{"startTime":1556.365,"endTime":1561.525,"body":"the higher share of renewable energy in any national budget."},{"startTime":1562.305,"endTime":1568.778,"body":"But given the expected increase in demand worldwide, it's reasonable I think to expect that"},{"startTime":1568.778,"endTime":1573.525,"body":"this tension will present itself in other countries in the future."},{"startTime":1575.795,"endTime":1583.881,"body":"When we look to the future of a particular technology, we therefore need to consider"},{"startTime":1583.881,"endTime":1591.968,"body":"its potential interactions with at least all of these aspects of society, communication, money, logistics"},{"startTime":1591.968,"endTime":1600.055,"body":"and transport, governments and diplomacy, food trade, healthcare and medicine, energy, outer space, work and"},{"startTime":1600.055,"endTime":1606.525,"body":"play, climate and environment, arts and education, manufacturing and population and demographics."},{"startTime":1606.865,"endTime":1608.325,"body":"I'm sure I've left some out."},{"startTime":1609.955,"endTime":1618.543,"body":"When we look ahead, say to 2070, it's true that uncertainty and unpredictability inevitably increase,"},{"startTime":1618.543,"endTime":1627.131,"body":"but if we take AI as an example, we can see that it's already having"},{"startTime":1627.131,"endTime":1632.285,"body":"an impact in many different fields across all industries."},{"startTime":1633.185,"endTime":1641.342,"body":"AI is changing how we work In some specialisms such as copywriting, generative ai, large"},{"startTime":1641.342,"endTime":1647.325,"body":"language models are replacing human employees in the field of healthcare."},{"startTime":1647.735,"endTime":1655.285,"body":"There are documented concerns about racial bias in algorithms commonly used in clinical care."},{"startTime":1656.145,"endTime":1664.527,"body":"At the same time, machine learning is revolutionizing drug discovery and cancer imaging as Richard's"},{"startTime":1664.527,"endTime":1665.645,"body":"side bottom's."},{"startTime":1666.125,"endTime":1674.262,"body":"Excellent recent Gresham lecture demonstrated for us outcomes for some of us appear to be"},{"startTime":1674.262,"endTime":1674.805,"body":"improving."},{"startTime":1675.105,"endTime":1680.445,"body":"Thanks to ai, we now need to make sure that everyone can benefit."},{"startTime":1683.025,"endTime":1689.546,"body":"The UK National Grid is expecting power usage by data centers to surge sixfold in"},{"startTime":1689.546,"endTime":1691.285,"body":"the next 10 years."},{"startTime":1691.865,"endTime":1699.215,"body":"And total demand on the grid to double by 2050 due in part to future"},{"startTime":1699.215,"endTime":1702.645,"body":"growth in ai but also quantum computing."},{"startTime":1703.665,"endTime":1708.295,"body":"The timeline for quantum is particularly uncertain and that's one of the reasons why I've"},{"startTime":1708.295,"endTime":1710.765,"body":"avoided it until now in my lecture series."},{"startTime":1711.905,"endTime":1719.878,"body":"But already researchers are concerned about its potential to disrupt some of the technologies on"},{"startTime":1719.878,"endTime":1722.005,"body":"which we currently rely."},{"startTime":1723.415,"endTime":1730.473,"body":"Where classical computing power has to date grown exponentially by powers of two as described"},{"startTime":1730.473,"endTime":1731.885,"body":"in Moore's law."},{"startTime":1733.035,"endTime":1740.925,"body":"Quantum computing power according to Dowling, Nevins law is projected to be doubly exponential."},{"startTime":1741.345,"endTime":1748.751,"body":"It grows by the powers of powers of two millions of times faster than classical"},{"startTime":1748.751,"endTime":1749.245,"body":"computing."},{"startTime":1750.145,"endTime":1757.952,"body":"The bits of classical computing can only be one or zero, but quantum bits qubits"},{"startTime":1757.952,"endTime":1765.76,"body":"can be one zero or in a state of superposition where they have some probability"},{"startTime":1765.76,"endTime":1770.445,"body":"of being one and some probability of being zero."},{"startTime":1771.885,"endTime":1778.13,"body":"Qubits can therefore hold more information than bits, and this promises a huge increase in"},{"startTime":1778.13,"endTime":1781.045,"body":"computing power for a range of problems."},{"startTime":1782.345,"endTime":1788.459,"body":"Now in my field of cybersecurity, we are looking out for Q Day or Y"},{"startTime":1788.459,"endTime":1794.574,"body":"two Q and that's the date when a quantum computer is developed that can break"},{"startTime":1794.574,"endTime":1796.205,"body":"most modern cryptographic standards."},{"startTime":1796.505,"endTime":1800.205,"body":"How we secure our messages and our data."},{"startTime":1800.865,"endTime":1808.314,"body":"Now if you remember the hype around the millennium bug or Y 2K, you may"},{"startTime":1808.314,"endTime":1815.763,"body":"be tempted to take all of this with a rather large pinch of salt, but"},{"startTime":1815.763,"endTime":1823.212,"body":"in 2018 the US National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine estimated that a quantum"},{"startTime":1823.212,"endTime":1830.165,"body":"computer with 2,300 qubits could crack encryption using 1,024 bits in under a day."},{"startTime":1830.995,"endTime":1834.645,"body":"Quantum computing power is increasing all the time."},{"startTime":1834.945,"endTime":1844.728,"body":"In October, 2023, atom computing announced the world's first quantum computer to exceed a thousand"},{"startTime":1844.728,"endTime":1846.685,"body":"qubits nonprofit organization."},{"startTime":1846.865,"endTime":1852.697,"body":"The Cloud Security Alliance currently expects us to reach Y two Q in 2030 and"},{"startTime":1852.697,"endTime":1858.529,"body":"they've built a handy doomsday clock online so you can count down in real time"},{"startTime":1858.529,"endTime":1860.085,"body":"if you so wish."},{"startTime":1861.695,"endTime":1868.534,"body":"There are reports that national security agencies and criminals alike are looking forward to this"},{"startTime":1868.534,"endTime":1875.373,"body":"date with great relish even that they have been harvesting vast amounts of encrypted data"},{"startTime":1875.373,"endTime":1882.213,"body":"now with a view to decrypting it later and bad actors won't need to own"},{"startTime":1882.213,"endTime":1887.685,"body":"a quantum computer just as they've been able to misuse cloud computing."},{"startTime":1888.035,"endTime":1894.749,"body":"They may be able in future to access quantum computing as a service using a"},{"startTime":1894.749,"endTime":1895.645,"body":"commercial provider."},{"startTime":1897.025,"endTime":1904.049,"body":"So to counter the impact of this, researchers all over the world have been working"},{"startTime":1904.049,"endTime":1911.074,"body":"on new quantum secure communication and encryption methods and in February of this year, apple"},{"startTime":1911.074,"endTime":1918.098,"body":"announced that it would apply its own post quantum cryptographic protocol PQ three to the"},{"startTime":1918.098,"endTime":1921.845,"body":"iMessage service that millions billions of us use."},{"startTime":1924.025,"endTime":1930.486,"body":"So what then of the flying cars that were so prominent in science fiction and"},{"startTime":1930.486,"endTime":1936.947,"body":"in all those predictions of the last century, the hover cars of Philip k Dix"},{"startTime":1936.947,"endTime":1943.408,"body":"do Android's dream of electric sheep and the movie adaptation Blade Runner, which look that"},{"startTime":1943.408,"endTime":1947.285,"body":"was predicted to happen by 1992 and 2019 respectively."},{"startTime":1948.145,"endTime":1952.605,"body":"Or what about the family friendlier model used by the Jetsons?"},{"startTime":1953.725,"endTime":1960.65,"body":"I used to jokingly point to flying cars as an example of how technological developments"},{"startTime":1960.65,"endTime":1964.805,"body":"doesn't always meet the expectations of our collective imagination."},{"startTime":1965.825,"endTime":1972.245,"body":"And yet just recently we've seen a flurry of activity in precisely this space."},{"startTime":1972.945,"endTime":1979.833,"body":"In March of this year, a Chinese company purchase the rights to manufacture the air"},{"startTime":1979.833,"endTime":1986.721,"body":"car originally developed in Europe and capable of transforming from a car into an aircraft"},{"startTime":1986.721,"endTime":1993.609,"body":"In just a couple of minutes, there is even a manufacturer called Jetson whose tagline"},{"startTime":1993.609,"endTime":2000.497,"body":"is that everyone is a pilot and the UK governments has launched its future of"},{"startTime":2000.497,"endTime":2007.385,"body":"flight action plan, which predicts that the first pilotless flying taxi will take off in"},{"startTime":2007.385,"endTime":2007.845,"body":"2030."},{"startTime":2009.245,"endTime":2014.545,"body":"I would be a full to try to say with any kind of certainty whether"},{"startTime":2014.545,"endTime":2019.845,"body":"that timeline is achievable, but the prospect is growing that in the not too distant"},{"startTime":2019.845,"endTime":2024.085,"body":"future we may be able to ask, dude, where's my flying car?"},{"startTime":2024.435,"endTime":2025.685,"body":"Without irony."},{"startTime":2028.005,"endTime":2035.245,"body":"Considering the future of it in this non-linear, imaginative way also has a curious bonus."},{"startTime":2036.305,"endTime":2042.11,"body":"It sheds light on current trends that we may have missed because we are in"},{"startTime":2042.11,"endTime":2042.885,"body":"their midst."},{"startTime":2043.505,"endTime":2046.085,"body":"We are living them minutes by minute."},{"startTime":2047.225,"endTime":2053.492,"body":"In the course of the last two years lectures, several themes have emerged and recurred"},{"startTime":2053.492,"endTime":2059.76,"body":"they extend into the future, but they also yield insights into how we and the"},{"startTime":2059.76,"endTime":2062.685,"body":"world around us are changing right now."},{"startTime":2063.225,"endTime":2066.245,"body":"And one of these is the nature of identity."},{"startTime":2067.225,"endTime":2072.844,"body":"Who or what can have one and who we consider ourselves to be."},{"startTime":2074.105,"endTime":2080.284,"body":"The days when we had one means of proving one identity are long gone."},{"startTime":2081.125,"endTime":2084.605,"body":"I am already all of these people online."},{"startTime":2084.745,"endTime":2086.565,"body":"Please listen to my folk music."},{"startTime":2088.105,"endTime":2095.597,"body":"10 years ago, activists pointed out that the policy of social media companies to demand"},{"startTime":2095.597,"endTime":2103.089,"body":"that people authenticate their accounts with government issued documents in many cases imposed on trans"},{"startTime":2103.089,"endTime":2107.085,"body":"people identities with which they no longer identified."},{"startTime":2108.905,"endTime":2116.16,"body":"At the same time, we already have synthetic influences, artificial personalities such as fashion models"},{"startTime":2116.16,"endTime":2121.965,"body":"who exist in data, but not at all in the offline world."},{"startTime":2122.435,"endTime":2126.485,"body":"Virtual worlds are are full of these entities."},{"startTime":2128.065,"endTime":2134.46,"body":"And as we saw in a previous lecture, billions of connected things like the street"},{"startTime":2134.46,"endTime":2137.445,"body":"lamp outside my house are domestic appliances."},{"startTime":2137.465,"endTime":2141.285,"body":"And all our devices have unique identifiers."},{"startTime":2143.465,"endTime":2147.285,"body":"Our understanding of authenticity is changing too."},{"startTime":2148.135,"endTime":2153.554,"body":"Tools such as face swap apps and deepfake technology make it harder for us to"},{"startTime":2153.554,"endTime":2156.445,"body":"trust what we see with our own eyes."},{"startTime":2157.995,"endTime":2165.17,"body":"Equally simply identifying something as synthetic no longer seems to be su sufficient for us"},{"startTime":2165.17,"endTime":2166.605,"body":"to distrust it."},{"startTime":2168.045,"endTime":2174.795,"body":"Computer generated effects are the norm in movies and the game industry where it's also"},{"startTime":2174.795,"endTime":2181.545,"body":"become commonplace for actors to license their likenesses to studios who use computer programs to"},{"startTime":2181.545,"endTime":2182.445,"body":"animate them."},{"startTime":2183.435,"endTime":2188.325,"body":"Dead actors are regularly brought back to life by this process."},{"startTime":2189.825,"endTime":2197.311,"body":"Add to that the fact that many of us think nothing of interacting with chatbots"},{"startTime":2197.311,"endTime":2204.798,"body":"rather than human customer service agents and that there are burgeoning, if rather volatile markets"},{"startTime":2204.798,"endTime":2212.285,"body":"in both digital currencies and non fungible tokens for digital artworks that don't exist offline."},{"startTime":2213.225,"endTime":2222.498,"body":"And it's clear that developments in it challenge our historic appreciation of authenticity and the"},{"startTime":2222.498,"endTime":2227.445,"body":"preference for organic over synthetic in that evaluation."},{"startTime":2229.585,"endTime":2235.613,"body":"On the subject of chatbots, if you watched my lecture on sex and the internet,"},{"startTime":2235.613,"endTime":2241.641,"body":"you'll remember my ill fated and rather short-lived relationship with my AI boyfriend who I"},{"startTime":2241.641,"endTime":2242.445,"body":"christened Bernard."},{"startTime":2244.145,"endTime":2251.837,"body":"We now have so-called Death Bots, which enable grieving relatives to create avatars for deceased"},{"startTime":2251.837,"endTime":2256.965,"body":"loved ones with whom they can text and audio chat."},{"startTime":2257.585,"endTime":2265.398,"body":"And these present clear ethical concerns specifically about the dignity of the deceased and how"},{"startTime":2265.398,"endTime":2269.045,"body":"these bots may hinder the grieving process."},{"startTime":2270.355,"endTime":2276.697,"body":"They also have the potential to be used to create a simulation of a relationship"},{"startTime":2276.697,"endTime":2280.925,"body":"with an ex-partner even when that ex is still alive."},{"startTime":2282.715,"endTime":2288.245,"body":"Persistence was a key theme of my previous lecture on data protection."},{"startTime":2288.945,"endTime":2293.085,"body":"We are now humans who persist in data."},{"startTime":2293.675,"endTime":2301.536,"body":"Data honors persists unless we take the trouble to demand its removal as large language"},{"startTime":2301.536,"endTime":2305.205,"body":"models and machine learning continue to improve."},{"startTime":2306.045,"endTime":2315.645,"body":"Increasingly lifelike digital versions of us could exist without our knowledge and persist without our"},{"startTime":2315.645,"endTime":2316.285,"body":"consent."},{"startTime":2317.665,"endTime":2319.925,"body":"We can take as our current signal for that."},{"startTime":2320.705,"endTime":2327.367,"body":"The fact that there are are already dead people on social media between 10 million"},{"startTime":2327.367,"endTime":2331.365,"body":"and 30 million on Facebook alone according to estimates."},{"startTime":2332.475,"endTime":2335.485,"body":"Naturally that number is growing all the time."},{"startTime":2335.985,"endTime":2342.743,"body":"And researchers at the Oxford Internet Institute have projected that by 2070 dead people could"},{"startTime":2342.743,"endTime":2349.501,"body":"outnumber the living and that of course presumes that Facebook itself will persist until 2070,"},{"startTime":2349.501,"endTime":2352.205,"body":"which is by no means certain."},{"startTime":2354.195,"endTime":2362.116,"body":"Just as our digital selves are becoming more persistent and more complex, so too our"},{"startTime":2362.116,"endTime":2365.285,"body":"digital experiences are becoming more embodied."},{"startTime":2365.795,"endTime":2373.314,"body":"Immersive technologies like virtual reality speak to our need to feel like we are really"},{"startTime":2373.314,"endTime":2377.325,"body":"there physically and emotionally present in digital spaces."},{"startTime":2378.395,"endTime":2385.899,"body":"Further developments in haptic technology promised to heighten our physical sensation and in my lecture"},{"startTime":2385.899,"endTime":2393.403,"body":"this year on brain computer interfaces, we face the possibility of human augmentation through it"},{"startTime":2393.403,"endTime":2396.405,"body":"that is embedded in our tissue."},{"startTime":2397.705,"endTime":2403.765,"body":"The distinction between the physical and digital realms is therefore increasingly blurred."},{"startTime":2404.225,"endTime":2410.855,"body":"If, and it's a big, if this trend continues along the same trajectory for the"},{"startTime":2410.855,"endTime":2417.485,"body":"next 50 years, we could well be super human in a number of different senses."},{"startTime":2418.465,"endTime":2425.291,"body":"And there's even a possibility that our human code will solve the pressing problem of"},{"startTime":2425.291,"endTime":2432.118,"body":"where to store even greater amounts of data generated by us, our devices and the"},{"startTime":2432.118,"endTime":2437.125,"body":"tools we use in the emerging discipline of molecular information systems."},{"startTime":2438.045,"endTime":2446.22,"body":"Universities and tech companies are exploring the potential for large amounts of data to be"},{"startTime":2446.22,"endTime":2451.125,"body":"stored in DNA, thereby integrating silicon and bio-molecular systems."},{"startTime":2453.755,"endTime":2458.645,"body":"It's equally evident that humans are increasingly dependent on it."},{"startTime":2459.555,"endTime":2465.56,"body":"This may strike us as individuals when we doom scroll social media glued to what"},{"startTime":2465.56,"endTime":2471.565,"body":"everyone else is up to or chase the approval of peers with our own content."},{"startTime":2472.355,"endTime":2477.645,"body":"When Facebook goes down, some people on this planet call the emergency services."},{"startTime":2478.745,"endTime":2480.005,"body":"I'm not joking, they do."},{"startTime":2481.875,"endTime":2487.834,"body":"It's also discernible at a process level when organizations hit by cyber attacks that disable"},{"startTime":2487.834,"endTime":2492.205,"body":"their IT systems have to resort to using pen and paper."},{"startTime":2493.065,"endTime":2500.715,"body":"And when thousands of students receive unfairly downgraded exam results due to over-reliance on an"},{"startTime":2500.715,"endTime":2508.365,"body":"algorithm, and its apparent at the level of critical infrastructure when we hear, for instance,"},{"startTime":2508.365,"endTime":2516.015,"body":"of hundreds of power outages on smart motorways and conversely successful cyber attacks on energy"},{"startTime":2516.015,"endTime":2518.055,"body":"grids and healthcare providers."},{"startTime":2519.195,"endTime":2525.165,"body":"In light of that current trend towards greater automation and use of machine learning, these"},{"startTime":2525.165,"endTime":2531.136,"body":"signals would seem to indicate that resilience will be a key concern in the coming"},{"startTime":2531.136,"endTime":2531.535,"body":"years."},{"startTime":2532.205,"endTime":2538.931,"body":"Both of the systems to which we outsource an ever larger number of human processes"},{"startTime":2538.931,"endTime":2543.415,"body":"and of us as humans should these systems go down."},{"startTime":2544.435,"endTime":2550.885,"body":"And this in turn takes us back to my very first Gresham lecture way back"},{"startTime":2550.885,"endTime":2552.175,"body":"in September, 2022."},{"startTime":2552.635,"endTime":2558.594,"body":"It was on the governance of it, who owns it, who is responsible for it,"},{"startTime":2558.594,"endTime":2561.375,"body":"and who gets to make the rules?"},{"startTime":2562.515,"endTime":2566.055,"body":"The Cold War superpowers envisaged by the 20th century."},{"startTime":2566.245,"endTime":2571.215,"body":"Futures thinkers are the same but different so far."},{"startTime":2571.355,"endTime":2576.415,"body":"The US and China dominates AI and quantum computing."},{"startTime":2576.995,"endTime":2583.455,"body":"Russia is to some extent relegated to disruptive and irritating mist."},{"startTime":2584.605,"endTime":2590.935,"body":"Private companies like SpaceX arguably have as much power as any state."},{"startTime":2591.835,"endTime":2599.215,"body":"And depending on your perspective, US and Chinese social media companies are national security threats."},{"startTime":2599.555,"endTime":2607.009,"body":"Delete as appropriate at the risk of being less than charitable to some very hardworking"},{"startTime":2607.009,"endTime":2614.463,"body":"people at the United Nations so far, it has taken over 30 years for the"},{"startTime":2614.463,"endTime":2621.918,"body":"world's nations not to reach a legally binding agreements on how states should behave in"},{"startTime":2621.918,"endTime":2622.415,"body":"cyberspace."},{"startTime":2623.555,"endTime":2629.967,"body":"And from the vantage point of 2024, the likelihood that we will be able to"},{"startTime":2629.967,"endTime":2633.815,"body":"govern emerging information technologies by consensus seems pretty low."},{"startTime":2634.535,"endTime":2637.415,"body":"I really hope I am proved wrong on that one."},{"startTime":2640.215,"endTime":2647.095,"body":"I am prepared to concede that prediction may well be difficult, but I would also"},{"startTime":2647.095,"endTime":2653.975,"body":"maintain that considering how the future might play out has always been a worthwhile endeavor."},{"startTime":2654.875,"endTime":2660.832,"body":"One of my favorite predictions comes from someone who used to frequent Gresham College on"},{"startTime":2660.832,"endTime":2663.215,"body":"its original site in Bishop's Gate."},{"startTime":2663.885,"endTime":2670.947,"body":"This is the Francises piece to a discourse concerning a new world and another planet"},{"startTime":2670.947,"endTime":2678.01,"body":"in two books by John Wilkins, founding fellow of the Royal Society, Bishop of Chester"},{"startTime":2678.01,"endTime":2680.365,"body":"and Brother-in-Law to Oliver Cromwell."},{"startTime":2681.145,"endTime":2688.013,"body":"And in this book he discusses the possibility that our moon may be inhabited by"},{"startTime":2688.013,"endTime":2689.845,"body":"people he calls Selenites."},{"startTime":2690.785,"endTime":2697.878,"body":"He writes, I dare not myself affirm anything of these selenites because I know not"},{"startTime":2697.878,"endTime":2704.972,"body":"any ground where on to build any probable opinion, but I think that future ages"},{"startTime":2704.972,"endTime":2712.066,"body":"will discover more and our posterity perhaps may invent some means for our better acquaintance"},{"startTime":2712.066,"endTime":2713.485,"body":"with these inhabitants."},{"startTime":2714.675,"endTime":2720.031,"body":"It's the method of providence, not presently to show us all, but to lead us"},{"startTime":2720.031,"endTime":2723.245,"body":"along from the knowledge of one thing to another."},{"startTime":2725.585,"endTime":2731.765,"body":"For me, this is a brilliant prediction that combines scientific method with imagination."},{"startTime":2732.185,"endTime":2738.96,"body":"And it's a great illustration of how one can arguably be right and wrong at"},{"startTime":2738.96,"endTime":2745.735,"body":"the same time, however we look at it, there is no denying that we have"},{"startTime":2745.735,"endTime":2748.445,"body":"an exciting time ahead of us."},{"startTime":2748.785,"endTime":2749.765,"body":"Thanks to it."},{"startTime":2750.535,"endTime":2756.005,"body":"Human knowledge and capacity are likely to expand beyond our expectations."},{"startTime":2756.145,"endTime":2761.228,"body":"And I hope the professor of rhetoric will forgive me for encroaching on her territory"},{"startTime":2761.228,"endTime":2762.245,"body":"for a moment."},{"startTime":2762.865,"endTime":2770.725,"body":"Um, because I can't not mention the announcement last week that AI enabled scanning technology"},{"startTime":2770.725,"endTime":2778.585,"body":"had successfully read a chard, rolled up papyrus detailing Plato's final resting place, and his"},{"startTime":2778.585,"endTime":2786.445,"body":"last words, it's being heralded as a landmark discovery that could spark a second renaissance."},{"startTime":2787.475,"endTime":2794.265,"body":"Similar tools for deciphering ancient languages are assessed to be reshaping the humanities in a"},{"startTime":2794.265,"endTime":2799.245,"body":"way similar to the invention of the microscope and the telescope."},{"startTime":2800.205,"endTime":2807.15,"body":"A second Renaissance is something I can definitely buy into and it's perhaps worth noting"},{"startTime":2807.15,"endTime":2814.095,"body":"that as a precursor to the Royal Society, Gresham College has played its own part"},{"startTime":2814.095,"endTime":2815.485,"body":"in scientific discovery."},{"startTime":2816.425,"endTime":2823.537,"body":"So I don't think it's unreasonable for me to predict that in 50 years time,"},{"startTime":2823.537,"endTime":2830.65,"body":"one of my successes will be standing here looking ahead to it in the 22nd"},{"startTime":2830.65,"endTime":2831.125,"body":"century."},{"startTime":2831.835,"endTime":2837.685,"body":"That is of course, assuming that the killer robots don't get us first."},{"startTime":2838.935,"endTime":2839.885,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":2845.385,"endTime":2850.21,"body":"So what are the legislative changes that need to be implemented in order to prepare"},{"startTime":2850.21,"endTime":2855.035,"body":"society for the next 50 years of tech or even perhaps sooner than that and"},{"startTime":2855.035,"endTime":2856.965,"body":"the changes that they may bring?"},{"startTime":2857.675,"endTime":2860.245,"body":"There's so many, so I'm just gonna take one example."},{"startTime":2861.385,"endTime":2867.256,"body":"Um, we've talked a little bit in the lectures about the governance of ai, um,"},{"startTime":2867.256,"endTime":2873.127,"body":"and one of the things that is starting to happen is regulation around artificial intelligence"},{"startTime":2873.127,"endTime":2875.085,"body":"in terms of hard legislation."},{"startTime":2875.545,"endTime":2879.565,"body":"Really it's the European Union that's, that's leading the fray on this."},{"startTime":2879.585,"endTime":2883.365,"body":"So we have the EU AI Act that's coming into force."},{"startTime":2884.065,"endTime":2890.728,"body":"Um, but what we've also got is, um, gosh, a kind of soft power, um,"},{"startTime":2890.728,"endTime":2897.392,"body":"movement to get countries together and big tech companies together, um, to at least ag"},{"startTime":2897.392,"endTime":2898.725,"body":"agree some principles."},{"startTime":2899.025,"endTime":2904.643,"body":"Now, there are organizations like the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that"},{"startTime":2904.643,"endTime":2910.262,"body":"already have principles about, about what good AI looks like, what responsible use of AI"},{"startTime":2910.262,"endTime":2912.885,"body":"looks like, how it should be governed."},{"startTime":2913.425,"endTime":2915.605,"body":"Um, but that's just advisory really."},{"startTime":2916.105,"endTime":2922.323,"body":"Um, so back in November, uh, the UK government organized an AI safety summit at"},{"startTime":2922.323,"endTime":2928.542,"body":"Bletchley Park where they decoded, um, the Enigma machine, um, and they managed to get"},{"startTime":2928.542,"endTime":2931.445,"body":"China to attend, but also Elon Musk."},{"startTime":2931.985,"endTime":2936.732,"body":"So it was quite a, a a, a mixed bag of people, but I think"},{"startTime":2936.732,"endTime":2941.479,"body":"it was a, a great example, a great reflection really of where the power lies"},{"startTime":2941.479,"endTime":2946.226,"body":"these days, um, that you need to have China at the table if you're going"},{"startTime":2946.226,"endTime":2948.125,"body":"to agree global principles on things."},{"startTime":2948.345,"endTime":2953.595,"body":"Now there's been a lot of debate since about whether those that agreement has any"},{"startTime":2953.595,"endTime":2957.445,"body":"kind of teeth and they were just an agreement on principles."},{"startTime":2957.875,"endTime":2964.355,"body":"It's another thing to implement that and make sure that everybody in, in reality operationally"},{"startTime":2964.355,"endTime":2970.836,"body":"is using those safety measures, that they're not stealing each other's research and development and"},{"startTime":2970.836,"endTime":2974.725,"body":"intellectual property, which I'm afraid to say does happen."},{"startTime":2976.595,"endTime":2979.325,"body":"Alright, we can take perhaps the question Yeah."},{"startTime":2979.325,"endTime":2980.085,"body":"From the audience."},{"startTime":2980.335,"endTime":2981.325,"body":"Let's try to make here."},{"startTime":2981.955,"endTime":2982.925,"body":"Just wait for the mic."},{"startTime":2985.675,"endTime":2987.255,"body":"Um, lovely."},{"startTime":2987.955,"endTime":2989.695,"body":"Um, talk you've given Thank you."},{"startTime":2989.995,"endTime":2992.655,"body":"Um, very fascinating range of topics."},{"startTime":2993.315,"endTime":3000.655,"body":"Um, the thing that concerned me was the year 2030 and the quantum of computers."},{"startTime":3001.325,"endTime":3006.815,"body":"Does that mean that everybody's password, everybody's bank accounts potentially could become unsafe?"},{"startTime":3008.075,"endTime":3010.335,"body":"Um, I think potentially is the operative word there."},{"startTime":3010.795,"endTime":3015.305,"body":"Um, so it, we do have a bit of a problem with this timeline because"},{"startTime":3015.305,"endTime":3019.215,"body":"it, it's one thing saying that there's a computer that can do it."},{"startTime":3020.435,"endTime":3024.815,"body":"Um, but as you might have seen that big picture is of a cryostat."},{"startTime":3024.875,"endTime":3030.125,"body":"That's, that's what's required to cool a quantum computer so that it can function."},{"startTime":3030.125,"endTime":3031.925,"body":"They're not very stable right now."},{"startTime":3032.625,"endTime":3036.285,"body":"Um, you know, they, they're guess more and more powerful, but they're not very stable."},{"startTime":3036.395,"endTime":3040.285,"body":"It's not, it's not what you might call a plug and play technology just yet."},{"startTime":3040.905,"endTime":3047.805,"body":"Um, so we could have Y two Q, um, or Q Day where that's possible."},{"startTime":3048.825,"endTime":3053.665,"body":"That's not the same as that technology being in the hands of people who then"},{"startTime":3053.665,"endTime":3055.925,"body":"want to decrypt all of our messages."},{"startTime":3056.905,"endTime":3061.776,"body":"But one of the things that I like about what security researchers and, and companies"},{"startTime":3061.776,"endTime":3066.648,"body":"like Apple also signal the messaging foundation they've done this as well, is that they've"},{"startTime":3066.648,"endTime":3071.52,"body":"looked ahead and said, because of you used the word potential, and that's the right"},{"startTime":3071.52,"endTime":3071.845,"body":"word."},{"startTime":3072.005,"endTime":3078.351,"body":"I think because of the potential, we therefore need to put better security protocols in"},{"startTime":3078.351,"endTime":3083.005,"body":"place because once it happens, it could suddenly happen very quickly."},{"startTime":3083.825,"endTime":3088.183,"body":"And I, and I, I think that's the, the key here is people are anticipating"},{"startTime":3088.183,"endTime":3088.765,"body":"that change."},{"startTime":3088.765,"endTime":3094.098,"body":"You'll be relieved to hear that financial institutions are, are very, very keen on having"},{"startTime":3094.098,"endTime":3098.365,"body":"quantum secure cryptographic standards and being able to use those as well."},{"startTime":3098.675,"endTime":3103.611,"body":"There's another side to this as well, um, which is that there are research institutes"},{"startTime":3103.611,"endTime":3108.547,"body":"and, um, there is a, a, a program here in the city of London as"},{"startTime":3108.547,"endTime":3113.483,"body":"well, looking at how you can use quantum computing to secure things, to secure internets,"},{"startTime":3113.483,"endTime":3116.445,"body":"to have a quantum internet that's just more secure."},{"startTime":3117.065,"endTime":3121.543,"body":"So it's, I don't like to use the phrase arms race, but this is what"},{"startTime":3121.543,"endTime":3126.021,"body":"we find about technology is that, you know, we develop something, then we find some"},{"startTime":3126.021,"endTime":3130.499,"body":"vulnerabilities in it, or we see the potential for a vulnerability, so then we have"},{"startTime":3130.499,"endTime":3133.485,"body":"to harden those targets, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera."},{"startTime":3133.545,"endTime":3137.485,"body":"And all the while of course, we've got the bad guys who are looking for"},{"startTime":3137.485,"endTime":3139.325,"body":"those vulnerabilities and what they can exploit."},{"startTime":3141.765,"endTime":3144.205,"body":"Actually there's a, a good thought experiment."},{"startTime":3144.425,"endTime":3147.125,"body":"Um, do you think that tech innovation is infinite?"},{"startTime":3148.155,"endTime":3150.685,"body":"Gosh, right."},{"startTime":3150.705,"endTime":3156.762,"body":"So there was, there was a really interesting discussion, although there are some really interesting"},{"startTime":3156.762,"endTime":3161.205,"body":"discussions at the moment, um, around what makes tech innovation plateau."},{"startTime":3162.665,"endTime":3167.965,"body":"Um, and so keeping that theme of, you know, the 1960s in the Cold War,"},{"startTime":3167.965,"endTime":3170.085,"body":"let's think about the space race."},{"startTime":3170.785,"endTime":3176.125,"body":"You know, we had a massive burgeoning of innovation in a couple of decades in"},{"startTime":3176.125,"endTime":3181.465,"body":"the middle of the last century, and then we haven't, it's started to tail off"},{"startTime":3181.465,"endTime":3183.245,"body":"a little bit, hasn't it?"},{"startTime":3183.275,"endTime":3185.205,"body":"It's started to stagnate a little bit."},{"startTime":3185.745,"endTime":3190.629,"body":"Um, so I think there's more to be done to understand what happened there with"},{"startTime":3190.629,"endTime":3193.885,"body":"space technology and whether that will be repeated in it."},{"startTime":3195.185,"endTime":3202.316,"body":"My, I I always have a, a slight air of caution around this because I've"},{"startTime":3202.316,"endTime":3205.645,"body":"seen, um, tech hype and tech winters."},{"startTime":3206.695,"endTime":3211.285,"body":"We've seen a couple of rounds of AI being the next big thing."},{"startTime":3212.565,"endTime":3217.29,"body":"I mean, now feels different, I have to say, just because what we haven't seen"},{"startTime":3217.29,"endTime":3220.125,"body":"before was everybody using it, everybody using chat GPT."},{"startTime":3220.585,"endTime":3225.342,"body":"And the thing about chat GPT and large language models is that if we all"},{"startTime":3225.342,"endTime":3230.099,"body":"use it, we are making it better really quickly because it's being trained on the"},{"startTime":3230.099,"endTime":3231.685,"body":"data that we're all inputting."},{"startTime":3231.685,"endTime":3236.57,"body":"We're kind of, we're like a massive crowdsourcing experiment for it to, you know, generatively"},{"startTime":3236.57,"endTime":3238.525,"body":"get better and better really quickly."},{"startTime":3239.465,"endTime":3246.389,"body":"Um, I think sometimes when the technologies converge that I showed for 2030, they conve"},{"startTime":3246.389,"endTime":3251.005,"body":"in ways that we hadn't planned and we hadn't expected."},{"startTime":3251.265,"endTime":3256.509,"body":"So in my wildest imaginings of what technology might enable another technology, it's like things"},{"startTime":3256.509,"endTime":3261.753,"body":"like DNA storage that's not being talked about a lot, but given that we have"},{"startTime":3261.753,"endTime":3266.997,"body":"a problem that we need to solve, which is we're gonna run outta storage in"},{"startTime":3266.997,"endTime":3269.445,"body":"the world, what are we gonna do?"},{"startTime":3270.665,"endTime":3276.056,"body":"Um, if DNA storage suddenly becomes the next big thing and becomes widely available, that"},{"startTime":3276.056,"endTime":3281.447,"body":"could accelerate all sorts of things that we saw on that chart in a way"},{"startTime":3281.447,"endTime":3283.245,"body":"that I couldn't have anticipated."},{"startTime":3284.705,"endTime":3291.525,"body":"So something just takes off, captures everybody's imagination, has utility exactly the right moment."},{"startTime":3291.785,"endTime":3295.973,"body":"And I think when we look back at vr, you know, I, I remember watching"},{"startTime":3295.973,"endTime":3298.765,"body":"that edition of Tomorrow's world and thinking, this is amazing."},{"startTime":3298.815,"endTime":3303.065,"body":"These people look like they're really there in that room with these massive headsets on"},{"startTime":3303.065,"endTime":3304.765,"body":"wired into this massive base station."},{"startTime":3305.665,"endTime":3310.922,"body":"Um, but it didn't take off because we didn't have quite the utility and we"},{"startTime":3310.922,"endTime":3312.325,"body":"didn't have the infrastructure."},{"startTime":3312.325,"endTime":3317.954,"body":"Sometimes it's that moment in time, it's the intersection that means we have a massive"},{"startTime":3317.954,"endTime":3323.583,"body":"acceleration in innovation, but I think we need to do more work on what happens"},{"startTime":3323.583,"endTime":3325.085,"body":"when it falls flat."},{"startTime":3325.295,"endTime":3325.725,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3325.895,"endTime":3326.325,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3326.345,"endTime":3329.405,"body":"Um, you touched a bit on, uh, China and America and Russia."},{"startTime":3329.645,"endTime":3335.255,"body":"I was wondering about the impact on geopolitics of this IT innovation and the impact"},{"startTime":3335.255,"endTime":3337.125,"body":"on it innovation on geopolitics."},{"startTime":3337.865,"endTime":3338.085,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3338.305,"endTime":3341.565,"body":"I'm writing about this at the moment actually, so watch this space."},{"startTime":3342.225,"endTime":3348.765,"body":"Um, it, it's been really interesting to watch the interaction between the two."},{"startTime":3348.785,"endTime":3353.367,"body":"So yes, we have, we are still to some extent, sorry to say it, but"},{"startTime":3353.367,"endTime":3357.645,"body":"still to some extent in the Cold War as far as technology is concerned."},{"startTime":3358.305,"endTime":3362.4,"body":"Um, because, um, if we're thinking about some of the biggest players here, and I"},{"startTime":3362.4,"endTime":3366.495,"body":"was very disparaging of Russia, but you know, Russia are, you know, some of the"},{"startTime":3366.495,"endTime":3370.045,"body":"world's leading cyber criminals, but they're not necessarily the world's leading tech developers."},{"startTime":3370.665,"endTime":3376.502,"body":"And, and that's where I think we see that imbalance, that the hard negotiations now"},{"startTime":3376.502,"endTime":3382.339,"body":"are being done by US and China, um, who at the same time portray each"},{"startTime":3382.339,"endTime":3384.285,"body":"other as national security threats."},{"startTime":3384.385,"endTime":3390.085,"body":"So we've seen recently, um, president Biden signing into law the ban on TikTok in"},{"startTime":3390.085,"endTime":3395.405,"body":"the US unless it's sold to a US company in the next nine months."},{"startTime":3396.265,"endTime":3400.045,"body":"Um, equally WhatsApp has been banned in China recently."},{"startTime":3400.825,"endTime":3407.415,"body":"So this idea that publicly available technologies that all the rest of us use are,"},{"startTime":3407.415,"endTime":3414.005,"body":"are seen as threats in those countries, I think is is is a really interesting"},{"startTime":3414.005,"endTime":3414.445,"body":"one."},{"startTime":3414.865,"endTime":3416.965,"body":"Um, so let's think about the perspectives here."},{"startTime":3417.705,"endTime":3424.085,"body":"Um, China is very interested in information control, much like Russia."},{"startTime":3424.085,"endTime":3429.365,"body":"Russia is very interested in information control, controlling what their populations see."},{"startTime":3430.065,"endTime":3435.795,"body":"Um, so a tool like WhatsApp, which has encrypted communications that are designed to be"},{"startTime":3435.795,"endTime":3441.525,"body":"private, that are designed not to be intercepted by anybody, whether it's criminals or the"},{"startTime":3441.525,"endTime":3447.255,"body":"governments, is therefore a threat because the Chinese government can no longer see what's going"},{"startTime":3447.255,"endTime":3449.165,"body":"on on their citizens' phones."},{"startTime":3450.865,"endTime":3457.964,"body":"The other side, \u003claugh\u003e is that, um, because the Chinese government has passed a law"},{"startTime":3457.964,"endTime":3465.063,"body":"that says that they have access to the data of any company operating in China"},{"startTime":3465.063,"endTime":3472.162,"body":"that's perceived as a threat by the US and to a certain extent the UK"},{"startTime":3472.162,"endTime":3479.261,"body":"and the European Union because that's suggests that the Chinese government can read everybody's TikTok"},{"startTime":3479.261,"endTime":3479.735,"body":"accounts."},{"startTime":3481.955,"endTime":3487.584,"body":"And so it's the same kind of standoff with the, with similar preoccupations, but for"},{"startTime":3487.584,"endTime":3488.335,"body":"different reasons."},{"startTime":3489.315,"endTime":3493.665,"body":"And what I see is the, the kind of the tech wars, and you can"},{"startTime":3493.665,"endTime":3495.695,"body":"call it techno nationalism or digital sovereignty."},{"startTime":3495.695,"endTime":3497.375,"body":"There are lots of different ways of calling."},{"startTime":3497.395,"endTime":3503.563,"body":"It is somehow overlaid on all of the trade negotiations and particularly if we're looking"},{"startTime":3503.563,"endTime":3509.732,"body":"at the UK that, you know, post Brexit has China as one of its largest"},{"startTime":3509.732,"endTime":3515.901,"body":"trading partners puts the UK in quite a strange situation, um, where it's caught between"},{"startTime":3515.901,"endTime":3517.135,"body":"US and China."},{"startTime":3518.515,"endTime":3523.033,"body":"And you know, we've also got to think about our national security and our national"},{"startTime":3523.033,"endTime":3523.335,"body":"cybersecurity."},{"startTime":3523.935,"endTime":3526.752,"body":"I mean that's, there's so many things I could say about that, but I'm conscious"},{"startTime":3526.752,"endTime":3528.255,"body":"that we're going to run out of time."},{"startTime":3528.315,"endTime":3529.615,"body":"But that, it's a brilliant question."},{"startTime":3529.625,"endTime":3530.855,"body":"Thank you \u003caffirmative\u003e."},{"startTime":3532.525,"endTime":3536.732,"body":"Well, someone is actually asking, that's, that could be a good question actually for our"},{"startTime":3536.732,"endTime":3538.415,"body":"professor of rhetoric working on democracy."},{"startTime":3538.635,"endTime":3543.672,"body":"But someone is asking actually about, um, a voting, a potential of having an online"},{"startTime":3543.672,"endTime":3548.375,"body":"global voting system in which everyone on earth could vote on important collective issues."},{"startTime":3548.865,"endTime":3553.095,"body":"Would that be, would that, is that, is that something that would be possible?"},{"startTime":3553.135,"endTime":3554.575,"body":"I mean, geopolitically as you said, would"},{"startTime":3554.645,"endTime":3555.455,"body":"Know quite difficult."},{"startTime":3555.475,"endTime":3559.342,"body":"You know, it would be a brilliant way of solving the stalemate that we currently"},{"startTime":3559.342,"endTime":3561.405,"body":"have around the un cyber crime treaty, right?"},{"startTime":3561.425,"endTime":3564.445,"body":"If we could all vote and say, this is what we want."},{"startTime":3564.445,"endTime":3567.645,"body":"This is we, no, we don't want that wording put in there, you know, let's,"},{"startTime":3567.645,"endTime":3569.565,"body":"let's have a pile on and do this ourselves."},{"startTime":3569.905,"endTime":3570.125,"body":"No."},{"startTime":3570.225,"endTime":3576.636,"body":"Um, so with anything global, and we see this even in terms of internet governance,"},{"startTime":3576.636,"endTime":3581.765,"body":"we always have that follow on question of, okay, who owns that?"},{"startTime":3582.065,"endTime":3583.085,"body":"Who gets to run it?"},{"startTime":3584.265,"endTime":3587.551,"body":"We could put the United Nations in charge of it, but bless them, they've got"},{"startTime":3587.551,"endTime":3589.085,"body":"a lot on their plate right now."},{"startTime":3589.745,"endTime":3595.565,"body":"Um, and \u003claugh\u003e, you know, it's, it, how do we keep that secure?"},{"startTime":3595.865,"endTime":3597.285,"body":"That's what I always think about next."},{"startTime":3598.465,"endTime":3603.885,"body":"Um, independence I think is a really, really difficult one in that situation."},{"startTime":3604.145,"endTime":3610.157,"body":"Um, but yes, maybe this is, it's actually, it, it touches very nicely on, um,"},{"startTime":3610.157,"endTime":3613.765,"body":"retro futurism, you know, the history of science fiction."},{"startTime":3614.665,"endTime":3619.183,"body":"Um, lots of science fiction writers and some of the TV shows that I grew"},{"startTime":3619.183,"endTime":3623.701,"body":"up with, certainly in the movies I grew up with, predicted we'd have a world"},{"startTime":3623.701,"endTime":3624.605,"body":"government, didn't they?"},{"startTime":3625.425,"endTime":3627.045,"body":"By a certain point in time."},{"startTime":3628.085,"endTime":3631.618,"body":"I don't know, I don't feel very hopeful about the world government, but maybe if"},{"startTime":3631.618,"endTime":3634.445,"body":"the martians show up, we'll all be able to pull together \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3635.265,"endTime":3640.358,"body":"Um, so we talked a little bit about the sort of vigilance of like sort"},{"startTime":3640.358,"endTime":3645.451,"body":"of international, on the international scene, but I guess on the other side, as individuals,"},{"startTime":3645.451,"endTime":3650.545,"body":"how can we be vigilant against sort of really powerful and potentially exploitative big tech"},{"startTime":3650.545,"endTime":3650.885,"body":"companies?"},{"startTime":3652.025,"endTime":3652.245,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3652.545,"endTime":3655.445,"body":"Um, so firstly, watch my other lectures."},{"startTime":3656.265,"endTime":3658.605,"body":"Um, 'cause the last one was all about data protection."},{"startTime":3658.825,"endTime":3662.513,"body":"And I, and I went through, you know, collecting our health data where that might"},{"startTime":3662.513,"endTime":3663.005,"body":"be shared."},{"startTime":3663.105,"endTime":3666.581,"body":"And it is, I mean, there's, there's no getting away from the fact that that's"},{"startTime":3666.581,"endTime":3667.045,"body":"an effort."},{"startTime":3667.075,"endTime":3671.92,"body":"Vigilance is a brilliant word for it because, you know, we need to be aware"},{"startTime":3671.92,"endTime":3676.765,"body":"of what's being collected on us in order to be able to exercise those rights."},{"startTime":3676.765,"endTime":3681.045,"body":"If we don't know, then we can't enforce for ourselves."},{"startTime":3681.865,"endTime":3687.292,"body":"Um, equally in terms of what's coming, um, one of the things that I've struggled"},{"startTime":3687.292,"endTime":3692.72,"body":"with is when I, ive run these futures projects or I build these scenarios, I"},{"startTime":3692.72,"endTime":3698.148,"body":"did the first one in 2012 actually, it was fairly manageable for one person to"},{"startTime":3698.148,"endTime":3701.405,"body":"read the tech news about what was in development."},{"startTime":3701.405,"endTime":3705.325,"body":"And I had a small team of people who went through all the scientific abstracts."},{"startTime":3706.035,"endTime":3712.351,"body":"When I came to do the one with new San Ban back in 2020, um,"},{"startTime":3712.351,"endTime":3717.405,"body":"I went into the world intellectual property officer's, uh, database of patents."},{"startTime":3717.975,"endTime":3724.365,"body":"There were 8.4 million patents with the phrase artificial intelligence in it."},{"startTime":3725.225,"endTime":3729.19,"body":"Now, some of those might be hyping it a little bit, it might not have"},{"startTime":3729.19,"endTime":3733.156,"body":"been AI at all, but I suddenly realized that this wasn't something that humans could"},{"startTime":3733.156,"endTime":3733.685,"body":"do anymore."},{"startTime":3733.905,"endTime":3738.606,"body":"So there is a sense in which by embracing the technology, and I know I"},{"startTime":3738.606,"endTime":3743.307,"body":"said this as a researcher rather than an individual citizen, but get to grips with"},{"startTime":3743.307,"endTime":3748.008,"body":"some of this stuff if you haven't already, because it's only when you use something"},{"startTime":3748.008,"endTime":3752.71,"body":"like chat GPT or something like a, you know, a, a generative image generator like"},{"startTime":3752.71,"endTime":3757.411,"body":"Dali, that you can see what it's doing, that you can kind of get inside"},{"startTime":3757.411,"endTime":3757.725,"body":"it."},{"startTime":3757.785,"endTime":3759.565,"body":"You don't have to be technical to do that."},{"startTime":3759.675,"endTime":3764.356,"body":"It's language, you know, that's all we're doing is putting language in there and it's"},{"startTime":3764.356,"endTime":3768.725,"body":"responding to our language and you can kind of learn, um, what it's doing."},{"startTime":3769.505,"endTime":3775.173,"body":"Um, there's also, um, I've done a number of lectures on cybersecurity and online safety"},{"startTime":3775.173,"endTime":3776.685,"body":"and things like that."},{"startTime":3777.225,"endTime":3782.496,"body":"Um, and it would be remiss of me not to mention the, um, Gresham cyber"},{"startTime":3782.496,"endTime":3784.605,"body":"shorts that we produced last year."},{"startTime":3784.805,"endTime":3788.278,"body":"A couple, uh, two or three black and white videos very much in keep calm"},{"startTime":3788.278,"endTime":3789.205,"body":"and carry on style."},{"startTime":3789.945,"endTime":3794.753,"body":"Um, about the three main things that you can do to protect yourself online in"},{"startTime":3794.753,"endTime":3799.561,"body":"relation to passwords, checking out, um, who emails are really from and keeping your software"},{"startTime":3799.561,"endTime":3801.805,"body":"up to date, that kind of thing."},{"startTime":3801.805,"endTime":3805.638,"body":"So if you're here for the first time and you're thinking the future looks scary,"},{"startTime":3805.638,"endTime":3806.405,"body":"what about now?"},{"startTime":3807.055,"endTime":3807.645,"body":"Don't worry."},{"startTime":3807.935,"endTime":3811.045,"body":"There are very basic things you can do that to protect yourselves."},{"startTime":3812.075,"endTime":3813.965,"body":"Well, there's various positive dots, things."},{"startTime":3813.965,"endTime":3814.725,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":3816.195,"endTime":3816.485,"body":"This."}]}