{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":4.835,"endTime":7.205,"body":"Tonight we're talking about the future of evolution."},{"startTime":7.585,"endTime":11.142,"body":"Um, and in a hundred years, a thousand years, you can definitely come back and"},{"startTime":11.142,"endTime":12.565,"body":"tell me how wrong I was."},{"startTime":12.745,"endTime":14.525,"body":"But right now you can't prove it."},{"startTime":14.785,"endTime":18.43,"body":"So I can say anything I like over the next 45 minutes, um, and no"},{"startTime":18.43,"endTime":19.645,"body":"one can prove me wrong."},{"startTime":19.665,"endTime":21.885,"body":"So what a great carte blanche to go."},{"startTime":21.885,"endTime":23.685,"body":"And that's exactly what I intend to do."},{"startTime":24.065,"endTime":26.445,"body":"So tonight we're talking about the future of evolution."},{"startTime":26.815,"endTime":29.085,"body":"Where it might go and what it might do."},{"startTime":30.765,"endTime":34.055,"body":"Will we ever be able to see beyond the current observable universe?"},{"startTime":34.435,"endTime":35.455,"body":"Oh, it's much worse than that."},{"startTime":35.635,"endTime":37.455,"body":"The observable universe is shrinking."},{"startTime":38.035,"endTime":42.418,"body":"If you want to know what are my odds of winning the lottery, you come"},{"startTime":42.418,"endTime":43.295,"body":"straight to probability."},{"startTime":43.365,"endTime":47.575,"body":"Yeah, because probability is all about how likely or not events are to happen."},{"startTime":48.095,"endTime":52.503,"body":"I think the chance of there being an undiscovered second species, very like humans out"},{"startTime":52.503,"endTime":54.855,"body":"there in the world today is pretty slender."},{"startTime":54.925,"endTime":55.415,"body":"However,"},{"startTime":56.035,"endTime":57.975,"body":"And these are the pictures, if you haven't seen them."},{"startTime":58.135,"endTime":59.335,"body":"I mean, New York was orange."},{"startTime":59.595,"endTime":60.615,"body":"The air was orange."},{"startTime":60.845,"endTime":64.694,"body":"They said one day out in that air was like smoking a pack of cigarettes."},{"startTime":64.834,"endTime":67.895,"body":"It had the same effect on the lungs as smoking a number of cigarettes."},{"startTime":67.895,"endTime":70.895,"body":"So people who'd never smoked in their life were suddenly going to suffer some of"},{"startTime":70.895,"endTime":71.695,"body":"the same health effects."},{"startTime":72.555,"endTime":77.473,"body":"Any further questions is a brand new podcast from Gresham College, A place where we"},{"startTime":77.473,"endTime":82.392,"body":"ask our speakers all of your questions that went unanswered following their lecture guests have"},{"startTime":82.392,"endTime":86.655,"body":"included Ronald Hutton, Robin May, Chris Lin tot, Sarah Hart, and Maggie snowing."},{"startTime":87.115,"endTime":88.015,"body":"Any further questions?"},{"startTime":88.235,"endTime":90.935,"body":"All episodes are available wherever you listen to your podcasts."},{"startTime":97.845,"endTime":100.705,"body":"Um, and uh, I really like this, this quote when we're talking about the future."},{"startTime":100.705,"endTime":104.569,"body":"This is Neil's boar who won the Nobel Prize, um, his rather famous quote about,"},{"startTime":104.569,"endTime":107.145,"body":"uh, prediction being really quite difficult, especially about the future."},{"startTime":107.525,"endTime":111.213,"body":"Um, and I think that is definitely true of evolution as it is with many"},{"startTime":111.213,"endTime":111.705,"body":"other things."},{"startTime":111.845,"endTime":116.696,"body":"But nonetheless, I'm gonna give it a whirl and see if we can predict, um,"},{"startTime":116.696,"endTime":121.225,"body":"what might happen over the next decades, centuries, maybe even, uh, millennia going forwards."},{"startTime":122.405,"endTime":125.715,"body":"But before we do that, I think it's quite useful just to quickly recap on"},{"startTime":125.715,"endTime":129.025,"body":"what evolution is, especially for those of you who are coming to this completely new."},{"startTime":129.044,"endTime":131.265,"body":"So what does evolution, um, and how does it work?"},{"startTime":131.265,"endTime":132.905,"body":"And it's really quite straightforward."},{"startTime":133.495,"endTime":139.574,"body":"Evolution is all about, as you hopefully know, natural selection, uh, choosing things amongst a"},{"startTime":139.574,"endTime":140.385,"body":"varied population."},{"startTime":140.885,"endTime":143.625,"body":"So here's my model organism, a little blue.here."},{"startTime":144.305,"endTime":145.265,"body":"Organisms reproduce."},{"startTime":145.375,"endTime":146.265,"body":"They have offspring."},{"startTime":146.265,"endTime":151.209,"body":"Those offspring are not identical to themselves either because of sexual recombination, so shuffling of"},{"startTime":151.209,"endTime":154.505,"body":"genes or because of mutation, or a bit of both."},{"startTime":154.845,"endTime":156.705,"body":"So they have all, they have offspring."},{"startTime":156.705,"endTime":157.945,"body":"The offspring are all different."},{"startTime":158.675,"endTime":162.785,"body":"Those offspring compete for resources, food, habitat, whatever."},{"startTime":163.245,"endTime":164.465,"body":"And not all of them make it."},{"startTime":164.465,"endTime":167.345,"body":"So there is selective, uh, we knowing of that population."},{"startTime":167.405,"endTime":171.465,"body":"And so what you end up with is this variable population, um, gets narrowed down."},{"startTime":171.495,"endTime":172.825,"body":"Only the winners survive."},{"startTime":173.485,"endTime":177.361,"body":"Um, those winners are successful, they reproduce and they have their own offspring, which look"},{"startTime":177.361,"endTime":180.205,"body":"a bit like themselves, um, and so on and so forth."},{"startTime":180.205,"endTime":182.725,"body":"That process iterates again and again over generations."},{"startTime":182.745,"endTime":187.762,"body":"And eventually what you end up with, um, is a kind of gloriously diverse population"},{"startTime":187.762,"endTime":192.445,"body":"of the winners, essentially the winners during the period in which they were selected."},{"startTime":192.705,"endTime":195.789,"body":"Um, and so you end up with a, a tree that looks a bit like"},{"startTime":195.789,"endTime":197.845,"body":"this, um, rather ancient one now, all these different species."},{"startTime":198.905,"endTime":201.685,"body":"And that a first approximation is how evolution works."},{"startTime":201.785,"endTime":205.605,"body":"It works by selecting amongst variation and only the winners survive."},{"startTime":206.865,"endTime":210.309,"body":"And I think one of the really important things to think about is there are"},{"startTime":210.309,"endTime":212.605,"body":"actually only two ways in which evolution can do that."},{"startTime":212.605,"endTime":216.123,"body":"And people often talk about, you know, ask me questions about, you know, well, how,"},{"startTime":216.123,"endTime":217.765,"body":"how will, how can we engineer evolution?"},{"startTime":217.785,"endTime":220.205,"body":"And actually evolution is about two things."},{"startTime":220.665,"endTime":223.375,"body":"Um, and it's a bit like it's, it is the two things that sort of"},{"startTime":223.375,"endTime":226.085,"body":"feature in a kind of, um, I don't know, like a holiday novel or something."},{"startTime":226.085,"endTime":228.125,"body":"It's all about sex and death, basically."},{"startTime":228.255,"endTime":229.805,"body":"Those are the only two ways you can evolve."},{"startTime":230.065,"endTime":234.183,"body":"Um, because if you take a varied population, like those of you listening here in"},{"startTime":234.183,"endTime":238.301,"body":"the hall, and I want to select a way, um, to get a particular type"},{"startTime":238.301,"endTime":239.125,"body":"of evolutionary thing."},{"startTime":239.125,"endTime":239.805,"body":"There are two options."},{"startTime":240.385,"endTime":243.748,"body":"One is that I can kill those of you that I think are not suitably"},{"startTime":243.748,"endTime":244.645,"body":"fit for the environment."},{"startTime":244.825,"endTime":250.707,"body":"So you die, you don't reproduce your loss to evolution or, and, um, you selectively"},{"startTime":250.707,"endTime":253.845,"body":"reproduce from those, um, who are very successful."},{"startTime":253.845,"endTime":256.845,"body":"So they get basically more mating opportunities than the rest of us."},{"startTime":256.865,"endTime":260.233,"body":"Or I have to say, this particular painting of Venus and Adonis, I don't see"},{"startTime":260.233,"endTime":261.805,"body":"very much evolutionary success going on there."},{"startTime":262.145,"endTime":264.245,"body":"Um, but that is how evolution works."},{"startTime":264.385,"endTime":268.657,"body":"So the, the, the most successful offspring don't die and do reproduce, and that is"},{"startTime":268.657,"endTime":272.645,"body":"how it has worked for three and a half billion years on this planet."},{"startTime":274.195,"endTime":280.239,"body":"Just in the last few decades, we as humans have entered a third opportunity, um,"},{"startTime":280.239,"endTime":281.045,"body":"to evolution."},{"startTime":281.345,"endTime":287.216,"body":"And that is the option to actively engineer genes to change genes without either killing,"},{"startTime":287.216,"endTime":289.565,"body":"uh, or selectively reproducing from things."},{"startTime":289.825,"endTime":294.245,"body":"So we have gained the ability to edit DNA, um, and to change things."},{"startTime":294.305,"endTime":299.405,"body":"So genetically modified organisms and indeed genetically modified, um, humans in the future potentially."},{"startTime":299.405,"endTime":302.525,"body":"And we'll talk a little bit about that towards, uh, the end of this lecture."},{"startTime":303.225,"endTime":308.451,"body":"But those really are the kind of the tools that the evolution uses and it"},{"startTime":308.451,"endTime":312.285,"body":"uses those to shape populations in response to a changing environment."},{"startTime":312.345,"endTime":316.365,"body":"And uh, and really the key thing about evolution is that change is all important."},{"startTime":317.465,"endTime":321.405,"body":"If everything stays exactly the same, there's a little bit of evolution that goes on"},{"startTime":321.405,"endTime":323.245,"body":"due to a process called genetic drift."},{"startTime":323.245,"endTime":326.205,"body":"There's random chance and these kinda things, but it's weak."},{"startTime":326.835,"endTime":331.49,"body":"What really drives strong evolution is big change, something that shifts the environment in a"},{"startTime":331.49,"endTime":335.525,"body":"way that now starts to select for a different trait in the population."},{"startTime":335.525,"endTime":339.896,"body":"So when we think about the future of evolution, what we're thinking about is how"},{"startTime":339.896,"endTime":344.267,"body":"might the planet change and therefore start to exert an evolutionary pressure, um, that drives"},{"startTime":344.267,"endTime":345.725,"body":"it in a particular direction."},{"startTime":345.725,"endTime":348.645,"body":"And there are of course lots of ways that the planet is changing."},{"startTime":348.945,"endTime":352.92,"body":"Um, but I think it will come as no surprise to this audience, hopefully to"},{"startTime":352.92,"endTime":356.895,"body":"any audience that one of the ways the planet is changing at a remarkable pace,"},{"startTime":356.895,"endTime":358.485,"body":"unfortunately, is in terms of temperature."},{"startTime":358.585,"endTime":360.685,"body":"So this is a graph for the last couple of thousand years."},{"startTime":361.065,"endTime":364.897,"body":"Um, and, and my professional colleague Mars, Alan would explain this far better than I'm,"},{"startTime":364.897,"endTime":368.729,"body":"but I think you don't have to be a climate scientist, uh, to see that"},{"startTime":368.729,"endTime":372.561,"body":"the temperature has gone up really dramatically just in the last few decades, um, beyond"},{"startTime":372.561,"endTime":374.605,"body":"anything that has happened, uh, in recent history."},{"startTime":375.585,"endTime":379.387,"body":"Uh, and unless you do something pretty drastic about it, and to be honest, even"},{"startTime":379.387,"endTime":383.19,"body":"if we do do something drastic about it, this will still continue for some time"},{"startTime":383.19,"endTime":384.965,"body":"due to accumulated carbon dioxide and methane."},{"startTime":385.425,"endTime":390.452,"body":"Um, the planet is gonna get warmer and that is going undoubtedly going to have"},{"startTime":390.452,"endTime":395.479,"body":"an evolutionary impact on many species, particularly those species that currently inhabit the coldest parts"},{"startTime":395.479,"endTime":396.485,"body":"of the planet."},{"startTime":396.595,"endTime":401.23,"body":"Because those are the parts that will obviously get warmer and those organisms will be"},{"startTime":401.23,"endTime":403.085,"body":"less suited to that particular environment."},{"startTime":403.625,"endTime":408.17,"body":"So for instance, if you are a polar specialist like this polar bear, unfortunately your"},{"startTime":408.17,"endTime":409.685,"body":"future is looking pretty bleak."},{"startTime":410.505,"endTime":413.845,"body":"And I guess there are sort of two potential roots outta that."},{"startTime":414.225,"endTime":418.64,"body":"So, uh, polar bears might just go completely extinct end of story, or they might"},{"startTime":418.64,"endTime":423.056,"body":"evolve in a way that makes them better adapted to the changing environment they find"},{"startTime":423.056,"endTime":423.645,"body":"themselves in."},{"startTime":423.645,"endTime":426.045,"body":"And actually the latter is not entirely unfeasible."},{"startTime":426.245,"endTime":430.205,"body":"'cause it turns out that polar bears are relatively recent species to evolve."},{"startTime":430.865,"endTime":435.679,"body":"If you do a genetic typing of polar bears, what you find is they share"},{"startTime":435.679,"endTime":437.605,"body":"an ancestor, um, with brown bears."},{"startTime":437.905,"endTime":444.045,"body":"Uh, very recently in terms of evolutionary time, somewhere between 150,000 and 600,000 years ago."},{"startTime":444.385,"endTime":447.685,"body":"That's, that's a very brief period of time in terms of evolution."},{"startTime":447.715,"endTime":451.765,"body":"It's even shorter than the period of time that our own species has existed."},{"startTime":452.345,"endTime":457.477,"body":"Um, and so actually there are very recent offshoot, and in fact today we still"},{"startTime":457.477,"endTime":461.925,"body":"have rare cases of hybridization between brown bears, um, and white polar bears."},{"startTime":461.925,"endTime":465.825,"body":"And so one possibility I think, as the planet warms, um, is that undoubtedly many"},{"startTime":465.825,"endTime":467.645,"body":"polar bears will die and go extinct."},{"startTime":467.705,"endTime":472.973,"body":"Uh, but in terms of an evolutionary trajectory, they rate may remerge with, uh, brown"},{"startTime":472.973,"endTime":473.325,"body":"bears."},{"startTime":473.585,"endTime":477.219,"body":"And ultimately in hundreds of years from now, we may only have brown bears that"},{"startTime":477.219,"endTime":480.853,"body":"share a lineage from both of those ancestral populations, which is a slightly depressing thought,"},{"startTime":480.853,"endTime":484.245,"body":"although I dunno if it's more depressing or less depressing than just going extinct."},{"startTime":486.225,"endTime":490.251,"body":"So climate change is clearly one way in which we as humans are shaping the"},{"startTime":490.251,"endTime":491.325,"body":"world and shaping evolution."},{"startTime":491.325,"endTime":492.565,"body":"But it's not the only way."},{"startTime":492.655,"endTime":496.763,"body":"There are lots of ways that we are shaping, um, the planet around us and"},{"startTime":496.763,"endTime":500.325,"body":"also therefore the evolution of the species that cohabit it, uh, with us."},{"startTime":501.105,"endTime":504.205,"body":"And one of the, um, things that we do do, of course, to the world"},{"startTime":504.205,"endTime":507.305,"body":"around us is we build on it and we change its structure and we do"},{"startTime":507.305,"endTime":507.925,"body":"things like this."},{"startTime":507.985,"endTime":512.525,"body":"We put roads in as a proportion of the entire world."},{"startTime":512.525,"endTime":514.683,"body":"Surface roads are absolutely tiny."},{"startTime":515.065,"endTime":516.525,"body":"Um, but in particular areas."},{"startTime":516.664,"endTime":519.39,"body":"And we are here having this lecture in Central London, that they're of course a"},{"startTime":519.39,"endTime":520.845,"body":"very dominant feature of the, of the landscape."},{"startTime":521.995,"endTime":526.201,"body":"Even in areas where they are a tiny feature of the landscape, they actually exert"},{"startTime":526.201,"endTime":528.445,"body":"quite a strong selective pressure on some species."},{"startTime":528.945,"endTime":533.079,"body":"Um, and there's some really fascinating work that's come out recently from the United States,"},{"startTime":533.079,"endTime":535.285,"body":"which shows its impact on one particular species."},{"startTime":535.385,"endTime":536.245,"body":"And that's the swallow."},{"startTime":537.105,"endTime":541.564,"body":"So swallows as you know, birds that fly around quite fast, um, uh, they often"},{"startTime":541.564,"endTime":543.645,"body":"swoop over roads 'cause they're catching insects."},{"startTime":543.715,"endTime":548.205,"body":"Insects, uh, tend to accumulate on these large warm surface, especially after rain."},{"startTime":548.825,"endTime":551.445,"body":"And that means unfortunately that they get hit by cars."},{"startTime":552.025,"endTime":556.81,"body":"Um, and so being able to swerve a car is quite a good strong selective"},{"startTime":556.81,"endTime":558.405,"body":"pressure, uh, on a swallow."},{"startTime":558.625,"endTime":563.641,"body":"And it turns out that that is having a direct measurable evolutionary impact on that"},{"startTime":563.641,"endTime":564.645,"body":"species right now."},{"startTime":564.745,"endTime":568.675,"body":"So if you look at swallows who have met a sticky end, uh, in a,"},{"startTime":568.675,"endTime":572.605,"body":"in a collision with a car, what you see here, these are the black bars,"},{"startTime":572.605,"endTime":576.535,"body":"is that dead swallows tend to have longer wings than the swallows that, uh, that"},{"startTime":576.535,"endTime":577.845,"body":"than the swallows that survived."},{"startTime":578.905,"endTime":582.6,"body":"And that's because if you have a long wing, you are really good at gliding"},{"startTime":582.6,"endTime":584.325,"body":"and swooping, but you are less maneuverable."},{"startTime":584.325,"endTime":587.736,"body":"Like if you think about airplanes, for example, big jumbo jets go a long distance,"},{"startTime":587.736,"endTime":591.148,"body":"but they can't suddenly go upside down those planes that going do loop the loops"},{"startTime":591.148,"endTime":594.56,"body":"and put smoke out and make you feel a bit sick, um, they have tiny"},{"startTime":594.56,"endTime":595.925,"body":"short wings 'cause they're very maneuverable."},{"startTime":596.195,"endTime":600.522,"body":"Same thing for swallows, swallows with short wings, very maneuverable, less likely to get hit"},{"startTime":600.522,"endTime":601.965,"body":"by a car and survive."},{"startTime":603.135,"endTime":608.018,"body":"Which means that over the last 50 years or so when we've been driving motorcars"},{"startTime":608.018,"endTime":611.925,"body":"at speed on roads, we have been selecting for shorter winged swallows."},{"startTime":611.945,"endTime":614.285,"body":"Uh, and you can see that actually there's the white dots here."},{"startTime":614.585,"endTime":617.085,"body":"Um, this is a 40 year, uh, time sequence, more or less."},{"startTime":617.465,"endTime":621.078,"body":"And the average wing length of swallows, at least in the United States, has got"},{"startTime":621.078,"endTime":622.765,"body":"shorter and shorter and shorter over time."},{"startTime":623.305,"endTime":628.265,"body":"Um, and so this is a, a kind of small but significant way in which"},{"startTime":628.265,"endTime":632.565,"body":"we are shaping the evolution of a species indirectly, but quite rapidly actually."},{"startTime":632.565,"endTime":636.094,"body":"40 years is really a very brief period of time, um, for evolution to, to"},{"startTime":636.094,"endTime":636.565,"body":"take place."},{"startTime":637.865,"endTime":640.045,"body":"So we're warming the world and we're changing it for people."},{"startTime":640.265,"endTime":641.925,"body":"We are building roads, we're changing things."},{"startTime":641.925,"endTime":642.805,"body":"What else are we doing?"},{"startTime":643.185,"endTime":648.019,"body":"Um, and this I think is one of the really, uh, neat observations that shows"},{"startTime":648.019,"endTime":651.565,"body":"that sometimes the impacts of evolution are really, really quite unpredictable."},{"startTime":652.305,"endTime":655.623,"body":"Um, and this is work that's come out recently, largely led by Oxford and collaborating"},{"startTime":655.623,"endTime":655.845,"body":"groups."},{"startTime":656.025,"endTime":659.175,"body":"Um, looking at a species that is pretty familiar to those of us, at least"},{"startTime":659.175,"endTime":660.645,"body":"in, in Europe and and North America."},{"startTime":660.645,"endTime":663.485,"body":"This is the great tit as we call it in the UK United Kingdom."},{"startTime":664.185,"endTime":667.165,"body":"Um, a small, very common bird, I'm sure many of you have seen it."},{"startTime":667.905,"endTime":673.29,"body":"Um, and for many years there has been an intriguing observation about great, its, there"},{"startTime":673.29,"endTime":675.445,"body":"are common species right across Europe."},{"startTime":676.105,"endTime":680.224,"body":"Um, but it turns out that if you look at the length of their bill,"},{"startTime":680.224,"endTime":684.344,"body":"then the ones that live in the UK here in the UK have longer bills"},{"startTime":684.344,"endTime":687.365,"body":"than all of the great tits we see in mainland Europe."},{"startTime":687.745,"endTime":691.557,"body":"Um, and so people have speculated for a long time, well, is this because, uh,"},{"startTime":691.557,"endTime":693.845,"body":"is it actually kinda some kind of cryptic subspecies?"},{"startTime":693.845,"endTime":695.485,"body":"Is it evolving in a different direction?"},{"startTime":695.825,"endTime":697.885,"body":"Um, might it be what's called a founder effect?"},{"startTime":697.905,"endTime":702.462,"body":"So maybe there was a very small population of great tits that started life in"},{"startTime":702.462,"endTime":704.285,"body":"the uk, uh, with longer bills."},{"startTime":704.285,"endTime":705.125,"body":"And so we have 'em that way."},{"startTime":705.125,"endTime":706.445,"body":"But it turns out that's not true at all."},{"startTime":706.445,"endTime":710.195,"body":"It turns out that this is evolution in action because if you look at, uh,"},{"startTime":710.195,"endTime":713.945,"body":"bill length over time, what you see is that in the United Kingdom, the bills"},{"startTime":713.945,"endTime":717.445,"body":"are getting longer and longer over time, over quite a rapid period of time."},{"startTime":717.685,"endTime":718.765,"body":"Actually, this is only about 30 years."},{"startTime":719.625,"endTime":725.005,"body":"So something in the UK is selecting for longer bill length in great tits."},{"startTime":725.265,"endTime":726.285,"body":"Um, and what might lab be?"},{"startTime":726.285,"endTime":727.845,"body":"And it turns out to be really quite fascinating."},{"startTime":727.845,"endTime":729.085,"body":"It's something that many of us do."},{"startTime":729.355,"endTime":734.405,"body":"It's this, we feed birds, um, and we often feed 'em in things like this."},{"startTime":734.545,"endTime":737.328,"body":"And if you've got a really short bill, it's very frustrating 'cause you can't get"},{"startTime":737.328,"endTime":737.885,"body":"to your peanut."},{"startTime":738.425,"endTime":741.155,"body":"Um, and if you've got a long bill, you can, um, and it turns out,"},{"startTime":741.155,"endTime":743.885,"body":"so then you say to you, well, why is this any happening in the uk?"},{"startTime":743.885,"endTime":747.508,"body":"And it turns out, and I didn't know this until fairly recently, it turns out"},{"startTime":747.508,"endTime":750.165,"body":"that we are pretty obsessive in the UK about feeding birds."},{"startTime":750.985,"endTime":756.811,"body":"In fact, we feed birds by weight, more wild bird food than the entire rest"},{"startTime":756.811,"endTime":758.365,"body":"of Europe put together."},{"startTime":758.785,"endTime":760.165,"body":"Um, and Europe's quite a big place."},{"startTime":760.265,"endTime":764.323,"body":"Uh, so we are pretty keen on this, and this is why we're driving evolution"},{"startTime":764.323,"endTime":768.381,"body":"because actually a wild bird feeding in domestic gardens is a pretty big selective pressure"},{"startTime":768.381,"endTime":770.005,"body":"on great ts in the uk."},{"startTime":770.345,"endTime":773.085,"body":"Um, and I dunno whether that's good, bad or indifferent, but it is quite interesting."},{"startTime":773.125,"endTime":776.866,"body":"I think that something that many of us do is actually driving the evolution of"},{"startTime":776.866,"endTime":777.365,"body":"a species."},{"startTime":777.745,"endTime":781.335,"body":"And who knows hundreds of years from now, if we keep feeding birds, maybe we"},{"startTime":781.335,"endTime":784.925,"body":"will end up with two different populations, um, of great tits in these different locations."},{"startTime":787.025,"endTime":789.685,"body":"So we are shaping evolution in lots and lots of different ways."},{"startTime":789.915,"endTime":790.205,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":790.225,"endTime":794.067,"body":"We are changing the animals around us, we're changing plants to, um, we are driving"},{"startTime":794.067,"endTime":795.605,"body":"this kind of process of selection."},{"startTime":796.305,"endTime":801.211,"body":"But actually I think there is one species beyond all others, which is the one"},{"startTime":801.211,"endTime":806.117,"body":"that is most likely to have to evolve rapidly in response to things that humans"},{"startTime":806.117,"endTime":806.445,"body":"do."},{"startTime":807.025,"endTime":811.013,"body":"And the species that I think will evolve fastest as a result of humans, um,"},{"startTime":811.013,"endTime":814.205,"body":"is this one here, uh, which is, uh, the human species itself."},{"startTime":814.505,"endTime":818.468,"body":"Um, the these two are now large teenagers and probably cringing if they're watching this"},{"startTime":818.468,"endTime":819.525,"body":"on YouTube later on."},{"startTime":819.665,"endTime":824.454,"body":"Um, uh, but anyway, uh, so humans ourselves, I think are probably the species that"},{"startTime":824.454,"endTime":828.925,"body":"is most likely to have to evolve as a result of our own activities."},{"startTime":828.925,"endTime":829.845,"body":"And why do I say that?"},{"startTime":830.245,"endTime":834.348,"body":"I say that because many of the things that we do as humans that we"},{"startTime":834.348,"endTime":838.451,"body":"have done to transform the world are having a really direct effect on our own"},{"startTime":838.451,"endTime":838.725,"body":"lives."},{"startTime":839.555,"endTime":843.325,"body":"Many of them are good public transport, better healthcare, all these kinda things."},{"startTime":843.705,"endTime":845.405,"body":"Um, some of them not so much."},{"startTime":846.305,"endTime":850.732,"body":"And I think one of the things in particular that we have done, of course,"},{"startTime":850.732,"endTime":855.159,"body":"is we have expanded our population enormously in terms of numbers, but also enormously in"},{"startTime":855.159,"endTime":856.045,"body":"terms of density."},{"startTime":856.835,"endTime":861.014,"body":"Many, many, many of us live in cities or mega cities around the world of"},{"startTime":861.014,"endTime":862.965,"body":"millions of people in very high density."},{"startTime":863.105,"endTime":865.845,"body":"I'm always slightly worried about talking about density when I'm in a crowded lecture theater."},{"startTime":866.145,"endTime":868.405,"body":"Uh, but we often come together in high density."},{"startTime":868.945,"endTime":874.353,"body":"Um, and as we have experienced, unfortunately, uh, very clearly in recent years, large populations"},{"startTime":874.353,"endTime":879.762,"body":"closely crowded together are the perfect breeding ground, uh, for disease, uh, because disease can"},{"startTime":879.762,"endTime":881.565,"body":"spread rapidly, um, between populations."},{"startTime":881.565,"endTime":883.525,"body":"That's true of all animals and plants."},{"startTime":883.905,"endTime":887.49,"body":"Um, but in a human case, of course, it's, it's also particularly prevalent when it's,"},{"startTime":887.49,"endTime":888.925,"body":"uh, when it's a human disease."},{"startTime":890.345,"endTime":895.55,"body":"So we have created these large populations of people, um, and they're getting bigger, especially"},{"startTime":895.55,"endTime":896.245,"body":"the city."},{"startTime":896.245,"endTime":897.925,"body":"The urban population is getting much, much bigger."},{"startTime":897.945,"endTime":901.245,"body":"And so, uh, so it is an ideal condition for, uh, a disease spread."},{"startTime":901.245,"endTime":906.362,"body":"And disease is of course one of the most dramatic ways in which evolution shapes"},{"startTime":906.362,"endTime":907.045,"body":"natural selection."},{"startTime":907.225,"endTime":910.656,"body":"Uh, because we said a a few slides ago, uh, there are only two options"},{"startTime":910.656,"endTime":910.885,"body":"really."},{"startTime":910.945,"endTime":912.805,"body":"You either die or you reproduce really well."},{"startTime":913.065,"endTime":917.322,"body":"And a disease that kills lots of people is a very powerful way to change"},{"startTime":917.322,"endTime":920.445,"body":"the frequency of genes and therefore the evolution of a population."},{"startTime":920.445,"endTime":923.125,"body":"And we have seen that repeatedly over history."},{"startTime":924.145,"endTime":930.055,"body":"So if we look for example, in the historical record at the single biggest pandemics"},{"startTime":930.055,"endTime":935.965,"body":"that we're aware of having just lived through one, um, uh, they are absolutely enormous."},{"startTime":936.145,"endTime":941.13,"body":"And actually, unfortunately, despite the huge human tragedy of COVID-19, it doesn't even scratch the"},{"startTime":941.13,"endTime":943.125,"body":"surface in terms of previous pandemics."},{"startTime":943.705,"endTime":946.645,"body":"So this, for example, is influenza flu virus."},{"startTime":946.795,"endTime":951.281,"body":"This is the 1918 pandemic flu, uh, that arose at the end of the First"},{"startTime":951.281,"endTime":955.768,"body":"World War in Spain, typically, and a spread across most of the world very rapidly"},{"startTime":955.768,"endTime":956.965,"body":"within about 18 months."},{"startTime":957.915,"endTime":961.605,"body":"That pandemic flu, we estimate to have killed about 40 million people."},{"startTime":961.605,"endTime":964.445,"body":"That's about 2% of the human population at the time."},{"startTime":964.945,"endTime":970.061,"body":"And just to put that in perspective, that's about 20 times more as a proportion"},{"startTime":970.061,"endTime":971.085,"body":"than COVID-19 killed."},{"startTime":971.505,"endTime":975.562,"body":"Um, so this was a pretty significant pandemic that wiped out a very large proportion"},{"startTime":975.562,"endTime":976.645,"body":"of the human population."},{"startTime":978.225,"endTime":982.605,"body":"It though is much, much smaller than previous pandemics that we know of from history."},{"startTime":984.035,"endTime":984.925,"body":"This is another virus."},{"startTime":985.075,"endTime":989.796,"body":"This is smallpox, happily eradicated, still the only case of a human disease that we"},{"startTime":989.796,"endTime":991.685,"body":"have successfully eradicated from the planet."},{"startTime":992.225,"endTime":993.925,"body":"Um, uh, hopefully the first of many."},{"startTime":993.925,"endTime":994.965,"body":"But nonetheless, this one."},{"startTime":995.385,"endTime":1000.26,"body":"So smallpox is a disease that was endemic, uh, to Europe originally, um, and was"},{"startTime":1000.26,"endTime":1001.885,"body":"not present in the Americas."},{"startTime":1002.425,"endTime":1007.15,"body":"And when European settlers first moved to America, some of them inadvertently brought smallpox with"},{"startTime":1007.15,"endTime":1011.875,"body":"them because it was, it was carried in them or in their, their bedding and"},{"startTime":1011.875,"endTime":1016.6,"body":"their materials, um, and exposed a completely naive American native population to this disease, for"},{"startTime":1016.6,"endTime":1018.805,"body":"which they had no immunity at all."},{"startTime":1019.625,"endTime":1023.854,"body":"Um, and as a result of that, uh, during the sort of immediately subsequent to"},{"startTime":1023.854,"endTime":1028.083,"body":"the discovery of the, what we call the new world, um, smallpox swept the native"},{"startTime":1028.083,"endTime":1028.365,"body":"population."},{"startTime":1028.365,"endTime":1033.233,"body":"And we estimate, although we have obviously no really robust records, but it's estimated, um,"},{"startTime":1033.233,"endTime":1038.101,"body":"that about 90% of the Native American population died of smallpox, um, in the decades"},{"startTime":1038.101,"endTime":1042.645,"body":"following European discovery of the Americas, uh, about 50 million people at the time."},{"startTime":1042.665,"endTime":1045.405,"body":"And a huge, huge impact on that population."},{"startTime":1045.545,"endTime":1049.867,"body":"We, of course, have no genetic data demonstrating what that might have impacted on the,"},{"startTime":1049.867,"endTime":1051.885,"body":"on the survivors, um, of that population."},{"startTime":1051.885,"endTime":1053.485,"body":"But nonetheless, a huge selective pressure."},{"startTime":1055.105,"endTime":1059.233,"body":"And if we go back even further, particularly into the Middle Ages, um, you will"},{"startTime":1059.233,"endTime":1060.885,"body":"be familiar hopefully with this organism."},{"startTime":1061.275,"endTime":1066.005,"body":"This is Yesinia Pestis, the causative agent of the Bubonic Plague or the Black Death."},{"startTime":1066.585,"endTime":1069.725,"body":"Um, and the Black Death is a, a disease that originated in Asia."},{"startTime":1069.725,"endTime":1070.965,"body":"They're spread around the world."},{"startTime":1071.425,"endTime":1077.054,"body":"Um, and until relatively recently in history, actually, what you would have are waves of"},{"startTime":1077.054,"endTime":1077.805,"body":"epi epidemics."},{"startTime":1078.225,"endTime":1082.411,"body":"Uh, a different variant of the bacteria might come, or, or different kind of population"},{"startTime":1082.411,"endTime":1084.645,"body":"would come pr potentially on, uh, trade routes."},{"startTime":1084.665,"endTime":1088.079,"body":"The Silk Road in particular, um, it would enter a population and then it would"},{"startTime":1088.079,"endTime":1091.494,"body":"sweep, it would cause large mortality, and then it would die out and then come"},{"startTime":1091.494,"endTime":1092.405,"body":"back again later on."},{"startTime":1092.745,"endTime":1096.724,"body":"Um, and the worst, uh, historical record we have of this, or the best historical"},{"startTime":1096.724,"endTime":1100.704,"body":"record of the worst event, um, is about 1346, uh, when the black deaths swept"},{"startTime":1100.704,"endTime":1104.684,"body":"through, uh, Western Europe in particular, um, and led to many of the things that"},{"startTime":1104.684,"endTime":1108.663,"body":"you read of in history, where entire cities, including London, um, sort of vacated out"},{"startTime":1108.663,"endTime":1109.725,"body":"to try and avoid."},{"startTime":1109.725,"endTime":1112.645,"body":"The Black Death records are very difficult to come by."},{"startTime":1112.645,"endTime":1117.228,"body":"But if we look at things like graveyard records, the estimate is that across most"},{"startTime":1117.228,"endTime":1121.811,"body":"of Europe, about 50% of the human population, uh, was wiped out by this disease"},{"startTime":1121.811,"endTime":1123.645,"body":"in about six or seven years."},{"startTime":1123.945,"endTime":1126.885,"body":"Um, and I think, I mean, it's very difficult to get your head around that."},{"startTime":1127.105,"endTime":1129.085,"body":"Um, I don't even want to begin to think what that would be like."},{"startTime":1129.185,"endTime":1134.095,"body":"But the idea that half your population has gone well within a, a single generation"},{"startTime":1134.095,"endTime":1135.405,"body":"is, is quite remarkable."},{"startTime":1136.955,"endTime":1142.325,"body":"That level of selective pressure, of course, leads to big evolutionary consequences."},{"startTime":1143.105,"endTime":1144.765,"body":"And we'll touch on some of those in in a second."},{"startTime":1146.215,"endTime":1149.805,"body":"These moments from history, though are unfortunately not consigned to history."},{"startTime":1149.805,"endTime":1153.455,"body":"There are other things we are doing, I think, that are likely to shape very"},{"startTime":1153.455,"endTime":1155.645,"body":"strongly our evolutionary response going forwards due to disease."},{"startTime":1155.945,"endTime":1161.422,"body":"And of course, one of the things we're doing, unfortunately, inadvertently is selecting for organisms"},{"startTime":1161.422,"endTime":1165.805,"body":"that are resistant to our own therapies, antibiotic resistant bacteria in particular."},{"startTime":1166.705,"endTime":1170.885,"body":"And, uh, this is a process that of course has only been going on since"},{"startTime":1170.885,"endTime":1175.065,"body":"we started to use antibiotics about a hundred years, more or less, by adding antibiotics,"},{"startTime":1175.065,"endTime":1179.246,"body":"um, particularly by using them inappropriately at low dose or in areas where they're not"},{"startTime":1179.246,"endTime":1179.525,"body":"essential."},{"startTime":1179.525,"endTime":1185.236,"body":"Like in agriculture, for example, um, we have driven a very, very strong evolutionary process"},{"startTime":1185.236,"endTime":1189.805,"body":"in pathogens to become resistant to them because only resistant organisms survive."},{"startTime":1190.345,"endTime":1194.954,"body":"Um, and as a result of that, what we now find ourselves in is a"},{"startTime":1194.954,"endTime":1199.563,"body":"situation where many, many pathogens are resistant to 1, 2, 3, or almost all of"},{"startTime":1199.563,"endTime":1200.485,"body":"the frontline antibiotics."},{"startTime":1200.485,"endTime":1205.029,"body":"And this is just a, a, a single graph showing that for two organisms, Escher,"},{"startTime":1205.029,"endTime":1209.573,"body":"Coline, and Klebsiella, um, which are both infections of humans, and a snapshot in time"},{"startTime":1209.573,"endTime":1214.118,"body":"looking at how many isolates, so how many bacteria that you sample from people out"},{"startTime":1214.118,"endTime":1216.845,"body":"there are resistant to these different groups of antibiotics."},{"startTime":1216.845,"endTime":1220.685,"body":"And I think, um, you can see quite easily without reading the numbers, uh, that"},{"startTime":1220.685,"endTime":1224.525,"body":"resistance is remarkably high, remembering that a hundred years ago or so, all of these"},{"startTime":1224.525,"endTime":1225.805,"body":"WA bars will be zero."},{"startTime":1226.105,"endTime":1229.485,"body":"Um, so we have selected for a large amount of resistance very rapidly."},{"startTime":1230.655,"endTime":1234.358,"body":"There are, I'm delighted to say, lots of activities ongoing to try and reduce this"},{"startTime":1234.358,"endTime":1234.605,"body":"problem."},{"startTime":1234.785,"endTime":1238.885,"body":"So better use of antibiotics, new antibiotics, more use of vaccination."},{"startTime":1239.305,"endTime":1244.21,"body":"Um, but nonetheless, without that process, I think what we see, uh, quite rapidly in"},{"startTime":1244.21,"endTime":1249.115,"body":"front of us is a prospect where many common infections are now untreatable and once"},{"startTime":1249.115,"endTime":1251.405,"body":"again, return to being essentially lethal infections."},{"startTime":1251.505,"endTime":1254.405,"body":"And I think, uh, you know, it's just outside of sort of living memory."},{"startTime":1254.505,"endTime":1258.032,"body":"But if you are 120, 130, you would easily remember a time when, uh, you"},{"startTime":1258.032,"endTime":1261.559,"body":"know, stepping on a nail in a garden might have been a death sentence because"},{"startTime":1261.559,"endTime":1263.205,"body":"you have no antibiotics to treat it."},{"startTime":1263.585,"endTime":1265.565,"body":"Um, and if we're not careful, we might return to that."},{"startTime":1265.625,"endTime":1271.07,"body":"And if we do, then antibiotic resistant pathogens may be an incredibly powerful force at"},{"startTime":1271.07,"endTime":1276.515,"body":"evolving humans away, because now you can't rely on an antibiotic to get over your,"},{"startTime":1276.515,"endTime":1277.605,"body":"uh, your infection."},{"startTime":1277.875,"endTime":1282.325,"body":"What you rely on is your own genetic predisposition, and therefore, evolution kicks back in."},{"startTime":1284.385,"endTime":1288.081,"body":"So there are outbreaks of things we know about, like black death, there are things"},{"startTime":1288.081,"endTime":1291.285,"body":"that we can predict but haven't quite got there yet, like antibiotic resistance."},{"startTime":1291.465,"endTime":1295.697,"body":"Um, and then of course there is a third risk of major disease from stuff"},{"startTime":1295.697,"endTime":1299.365,"body":"that we didn't see coming, or at least, um, we haven't immediately recognized."},{"startTime":1299.765,"endTime":1302.565,"body":"IE completely new pathogens arising from the environment."},{"startTime":1302.585,"endTime":1304.565,"body":"And we've had, uh, one of those quite recently."},{"startTime":1304.565,"endTime":1306.405,"body":"But, um, unfortunately it's not the only one out there."},{"startTime":1306.865,"endTime":1311.354,"body":"Um, so, and that's largely because humans are roaming into areas of the world doing"},{"startTime":1311.354,"endTime":1315.245,"body":"things that we haven't done before, exposing ourselves to environments we haven't seen."},{"startTime":1315.265,"endTime":1320.69,"body":"And so, for example, entering areas of pristine rainforest with no previous human contact, there"},{"startTime":1320.69,"endTime":1326.115,"body":"are many, many pathogens that are found in, uh, endemic animal populations, for example, to"},{"startTime":1326.115,"endTime":1328.285,"body":"which humans have not been exposed."},{"startTime":1329.105,"endTime":1333.005,"body":"And rather, like the Native American smallpox situation, we have no intrinsic resistance."},{"startTime":1333.005,"endTime":1336.674,"body":"And so if one of those jumps from an animal to a human, we could"},{"startTime":1336.674,"endTime":1339.365,"body":"end up with a new pandemic of, of fairly dramatic proportions."},{"startTime":1339.865,"endTime":1343.255,"body":"Um, and you might think that this chance is actually really, really quite low, um,"},{"startTime":1343.255,"endTime":1346.645,"body":"disappointingly, I'm afraid it's actually not as low as you might like it to be."},{"startTime":1346.645,"endTime":1352.245,"body":"And so there was a program run outta the United States called Predict, um, between"},{"startTime":1352.245,"endTime":1357.845,"body":"2009 and 2019 in which they screened, uh, wildlife, particularly in the tropics for novel"},{"startTime":1357.845,"endTime":1361.205,"body":"viruses, in particular things that might cause human disease."},{"startTime":1361.205,"endTime":1366.816,"body":"And in the 10 years this program at Ran, they identified 949 novel viruses with"},{"startTime":1366.816,"endTime":1367.565,"body":"human potential."},{"startTime":1367.565,"endTime":1371.307,"body":"It's almost a thousand pathogens, um, that we didn't know about before that were out"},{"startTime":1371.307,"endTime":1372.805,"body":"there discovered in a single project."},{"startTime":1373.905,"endTime":1378.572,"body":"So, um, so on this very gloomy note, uh, I guess what I'm saying is"},{"startTime":1378.572,"endTime":1383.24,"body":"that I think this is really quite, um, a worryingly high probability that at some"},{"startTime":1383.24,"endTime":1387.908,"body":"point in the foreseeable future, maybe not next year or 10 years or a hundred"},{"startTime":1387.908,"endTime":1392.575,"body":"years, but in the, in the foreseeable evolutionary future, we will have a major lethal"},{"startTime":1392.575,"endTime":1397.243,"body":"pandemic of humans that will shape our future evolution, will either go completely extinct or"},{"startTime":1397.243,"endTime":1401.911,"body":"there'll be a, a, a dramatic selection for people who are intrinsically resistant to whatever"},{"startTime":1401.911,"endTime":1402.845,"body":"that infection is."},{"startTime":1402.845,"endTime":1405.165,"body":"And that will shape the future of human evolution."},{"startTime":1406.225,"endTime":1410.645,"body":"So if that happens, um, what might we expect to come out the other side?"},{"startTime":1411.145,"endTime":1412.605,"body":"Um, and we obviously don't know."},{"startTime":1412.705,"endTime":1414.125,"body":"Um, and that's the fun thing about this lecture."},{"startTime":1414.245,"endTime":1415.205,"body":"I can tell you whatever I like."},{"startTime":1415.385,"endTime":1417.935,"body":"Um, but there are some things we can learn from history that tell us a"},{"startTime":1417.935,"endTime":1418.445,"body":"bit about that."},{"startTime":1419.385,"endTime":1423.168,"body":"So for example, we can look back at major pandemics of the past and we"},{"startTime":1423.168,"endTime":1425.69,"body":"can say, what did they do to the human population?"},{"startTime":1426.425,"endTime":1428.125,"body":"So this is the black death once again here."},{"startTime":1428.465,"endTime":1431.125,"body":"Um, and the black deaths, I said, swept through Europe, killed lots of people."},{"startTime":1431.425,"endTime":1435.283,"body":"And actually one of the places we have the most useful scientific resources right here"},{"startTime":1435.283,"endTime":1439.141,"body":"in London, where at the time it swept through so many people died, uh, that"},{"startTime":1439.141,"endTime":1442.485,"body":"the city of London dug plague pits and they threw people into them."},{"startTime":1442.865,"endTime":1446.303,"body":"Um, and then because, uh, then as now, uh, local authorities were very cautious about"},{"startTime":1446.303,"endTime":1449.741,"body":"saving money, um, they realized that having dug a big plague pit, if it wasn't"},{"startTime":1449.741,"endTime":1453.179,"body":"completely full, you could cover it with a bit of soil in the following year,"},{"startTime":1453.179,"endTime":1454.325,"body":"you could use it again."},{"startTime":1454.625,"endTime":1459.269,"body":"Um, and so what you have in particular areas, especially Smithfield, just around the corner"},{"startTime":1459.269,"endTime":1463.605,"body":"from here, are plague pits that are like little time capsules at the bottom."},{"startTime":1463.985,"endTime":1467.16,"body":"You've got lots and lots of people who died of the black death on top"},{"startTime":1467.16,"endTime":1470.125,"body":"of them you have people who died a few years later of something else."},{"startTime":1471.185,"endTime":1475.61,"body":"So those people in the upper layer by definition, survive the black death and the"},{"startTime":1475.61,"endTime":1477.085,"body":"people at the bottom didn't."},{"startTime":1477.305,"endTime":1481.66,"body":"So what you can do is you can rescue the DNA from those people, and"},{"startTime":1481.66,"endTime":1485.725,"body":"you can compare genes present in those who died from those who didn't die."},{"startTime":1486.025,"endTime":1491.21,"body":"And Louis Rero in particular has done that, um, and has looked for genes that"},{"startTime":1491.21,"endTime":1493.285,"body":"are significantly overrepresented in the survivors."},{"startTime":1493.585,"endTime":1497.602,"body":"So these are genes which we hypothesize had something to do with helping those people"},{"startTime":1497.602,"endTime":1501.085,"body":"survive, even though they then died a few years later or something else."},{"startTime":1501.425,"endTime":1505.55,"body":"Um, and what you see are some genes, the ones that are colored in here,"},{"startTime":1505.55,"endTime":1506.925,"body":"um, that are significantly overrepresented."},{"startTime":1506.925,"endTime":1511.002,"body":"And it comes as kind of no surprise that most of the genes that seem"},{"startTime":1511.002,"endTime":1515.079,"body":"to be very strongly selected for are genes that have a role in the immune"},{"startTime":1515.079,"endTime":1518.885,"body":"system, particularly in kind of hyping up the immune system, making it more aggressive."},{"startTime":1519.705,"endTime":1520.845,"body":"And that makes sense, right?"},{"startTime":1520.845,"endTime":1524.511,"body":"If you're gonna, uh, uh, be struck down by a bacterial infection, what you want"},{"startTime":1524.511,"endTime":1527.445,"body":"is an immune system that's geared up, ready to fight it off."},{"startTime":1527.445,"endTime":1529.365,"body":"And so those people survive better."},{"startTime":1530.255,"endTime":1534.449,"body":"There was a price to pay because if your immune system is always ramped up,"},{"startTime":1534.449,"endTime":1538.085,"body":"ready for an infection, sometimes it gets it wrong and damages you instead."},{"startTime":1538.105,"endTime":1542.7,"body":"And so, um, if you have some of these genes, you're also more likely to"},{"startTime":1542.7,"endTime":1544.845,"body":"suffer from autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis."},{"startTime":1545.305,"endTime":1547.932,"body":"Um, and so there's a trade off, you survive the black death, but unfortunately you"},{"startTime":1547.932,"endTime":1550.559,"body":"have nobby knuckles when you've got older, which is probably a pretty good deal actually"},{"startTime":1550.559,"endTime":1551.085,"body":"at the time."},{"startTime":1551.385,"endTime":1555.326,"body":"Um, but, uh, so one prediction I think I can make with some confidence is"},{"startTime":1555.326,"endTime":1559.005,"body":"at some point in the future, there will be a major pandemic of humans."},{"startTime":1559.155,"endTime":1562.536,"body":"Lots of people will die, and the people who come out the other end will"},{"startTime":1562.536,"endTime":1564.565,"body":"have better immune genes than the rest of us."},{"startTime":1564.945,"endTime":1568.563,"body":"Um, and they may well also therefore have to pay a price in terms of"},{"startTime":1568.563,"endTime":1568.805,"body":"autoimmunity."},{"startTime":1568.865,"endTime":1570.805,"body":"So that feels like a relatively safe prediction."},{"startTime":1571.145,"endTime":1573.638,"body":"You are welcome to come back in 300 years and tell me I got it"},{"startTime":1573.638,"endTime":1573.805,"body":"wrong."},{"startTime":1574.145,"endTime":1575.605,"body":"Um, uh, but I won't be here."},{"startTime":1575.905,"endTime":1577.885,"body":"Um, so, so that's my first prediction."},{"startTime":1579.515,"endTime":1583.596,"body":"However, surviving a pandemic is a part of surviving a pandemic is about having a"},{"startTime":1583.596,"endTime":1584.685,"body":"really good immune system."},{"startTime":1584.745,"endTime":1586.325,"body":"But no, it's not the only answer."},{"startTime":1586.325,"endTime":1590.005,"body":"There are other things that you can do to avoid dying in a pandemic."},{"startTime":1590.225,"endTime":1594.034,"body":"Uh, and we've seen one of those demonstrated during the Covid pandemic because one of"},{"startTime":1594.034,"endTime":1597.843,"body":"the most effective measures we had at controlling the disease was lockdown, much as it"},{"startTime":1597.843,"endTime":1598.605,"body":"was pretty miserable."},{"startTime":1598.995,"endTime":1603.556,"body":"Keeping people away from each other is a pretty good way of reducing the spread"},{"startTime":1603.556,"endTime":1604.165,"body":"of disease."},{"startTime":1605.585,"endTime":1609.237,"body":"So telling people to stay at home is quite a good state to measure to"},{"startTime":1609.237,"endTime":1609.725,"body":"help that."},{"startTime":1609.785,"endTime":1611.445,"body":"But what about if we don't have a state measure?"},{"startTime":1612.225,"endTime":1614.125,"body":"Are there genetic factors that might lead to this?"},{"startTime":1614.125,"endTime":1618.345,"body":"And it turns out that there might be, because it turns out there are genes"},{"startTime":1618.345,"endTime":1622.565,"body":"or genetic variants that are associated with your likelihood of being sociable or not sociable."},{"startTime":1622.945,"endTime":1626.595,"body":"Um, and so there's quite an interesting study fairly recently where people, uh, were screened"},{"startTime":1626.595,"endTime":1627.325,"body":"or not screened."},{"startTime":1627.325,"endTime":1629.685,"body":"They were, they were questioned about their sociability."},{"startTime":1630.185,"endTime":1632.205,"body":"Are you the kind of person who likes going out and partying?"},{"startTime":1632.505,"endTime":1634.125,"body":"Uh, do you prefer to stay at home and read a book?"},{"startTime":1634.345,"endTime":1636.085,"body":"Um, do you ever feel socially anxious?"},{"startTime":1636.425,"endTime":1639.372,"body":"Do you get worried if you haven't seen people or do you actually prefer your"},{"startTime":1639.372,"endTime":1639.765,"body":"own company?"},{"startTime":1640.545,"endTime":1645.528,"body":"And you can do an approach called a genome-wide association study, and you can look"},{"startTime":1645.528,"endTime":1650.512,"body":"for genes, genetic variants that are associated, uh, with enjoying partying or enjoying your own"},{"startTime":1650.512,"endTime":1650.845,"body":"company."},{"startTime":1651.145,"endTime":1654.605,"body":"And you can find genes essentially associated with whether you feel lonely or not."},{"startTime":1654.825,"endTime":1656.365,"body":"Um, and there are lots of them, okay?"},{"startTime":1656.365,"endTime":1657.925,"body":"They're all very, very weak effects."},{"startTime":1657.925,"endTime":1660.605,"body":"There's no gene here that suddenly turns into a party animal."},{"startTime":1660.825,"endTime":1664.467,"body":"Um, but lots of these genes together mean you're more likely or less likely, uh,"},{"startTime":1664.467,"endTime":1665.925,"body":"to be kind of very sociable."},{"startTime":1666.585,"endTime":1670.821,"body":"So one possibility in my future, rather bleak pandemic po you know, scenario, um, is"},{"startTime":1670.821,"endTime":1673.645,"body":"that you will select for people who have good immunity."},{"startTime":1673.705,"endTime":1677.421,"body":"You will also select for people who are a bit anti-social, um, and hang around"},{"startTime":1677.421,"endTime":1678.165,"body":"on their own."},{"startTime":1678.165,"endTime":1679.285,"body":"They don't go out and get mixed."},{"startTime":1679.285,"endTime":1682.525,"body":"And so maybe what we'd see is these genes are, are selected."},{"startTime":1682.525,"endTime":1685.5,"body":"And one of the most interesting things is that some of these genes actually turn"},{"startTime":1685.5,"endTime":1687.285,"body":"out, um, to have roles in the nervous system."},{"startTime":1687.285,"endTime":1689.565,"body":"So for example, DPD two, I dunno which one it is."},{"startTime":1690.185,"endTime":1691.725,"body":"DPD two, which is a dopamine receptor."},{"startTime":1692.085,"endTime":1694.005,"body":"Dopamine is a neurotransmitter in the brain."},{"startTime":1694.305,"endTime":1698.408,"body":"Um, so it actually makes plausible sense, uh, that you have sort of slight subtleties"},{"startTime":1698.408,"endTime":1701.965,"body":"in your brain that make you more or less likely to be sociable."},{"startTime":1702.265,"endTime":1705.965,"body":"Um, and if that turns out to be an advantage in terms of not catching"},{"startTime":1705.965,"endTime":1708.925,"body":"the next pandemic, maybe those genetic variants, uh, will be selected for."},{"startTime":1709.145,"endTime":1713.0,"body":"So, so, so far we've got a group of people who are gonna have good"},{"startTime":1713.0,"endTime":1716.856,"body":"immune systems, quite a bit of autoimmunity, uh, and be pretty anti-social, just to make"},{"startTime":1716.856,"endTime":1717.885,"body":"it even more bleak."},{"startTime":1718.215,"endTime":1720.485,"body":"There is a third possibility here too, of course."},{"startTime":1720.485,"endTime":1724.125,"body":"So let's imagine this pandemic is roving through, uh, human populations."},{"startTime":1725.085,"endTime":1727.965,"body":"I think it's a reasonable bet to say that society will not continue in the"},{"startTime":1727.965,"endTime":1728.925,"body":"way that we think of."},{"startTime":1728.925,"endTime":1732.621,"body":"If you had a pandemic that kills 50% of humanity, I don't think we're all"},{"startTime":1732.621,"endTime":1735.085,"body":"gonna be sitting here reading our newspapers and being relaxed."},{"startTime":1735.365,"endTime":1738.405,"body":"I think there is likely to be quite a big societal breakdown."},{"startTime":1738.665,"endTime":1742.79,"body":"And of course there are thousands of science fiction novels and films written about this"},{"startTime":1742.79,"endTime":1744.165,"body":"kind of Armageddon, uh, prospect."},{"startTime":1744.825,"endTime":1746.805,"body":"So let's imagine now lots of people died."},{"startTime":1746.835,"endTime":1751.341,"body":"Society's broken down, worlds falling apart, people are roaming around, um, in a sort of"},{"startTime":1751.341,"endTime":1753.445,"body":"very bleak, apocalyptic kind of, uh, mechanism."},{"startTime":1754.495,"endTime":1759.63,"body":"There are certain things that are probably going to be beneficial to you as an"},{"startTime":1759.63,"endTime":1761.685,"body":"individual in that fairly apocalyptic scenario."},{"startTime":1761.685,"endTime":1764.277,"body":"And unfortunately, one of them is you're probably gonna be not the kind of person"},{"startTime":1764.277,"endTime":1766.005,"body":"to sit down and have a gentle chat with people."},{"startTime":1766.025,"endTime":1769.998,"body":"You are probably likely to be quite swift to violence, uh, because if everyone's fighting"},{"startTime":1769.998,"endTime":1773.971,"body":"over food and short resources, um, if you are the guy who wants to settle"},{"startTime":1773.971,"endTime":1776.885,"body":"everybody down and have a chat, you're not gonna make it."},{"startTime":1777.465,"endTime":1782.538,"body":"Um, and and so, uh, violence, particularly violence in response to a challenging situation might"},{"startTime":1782.538,"endTime":1785.245,"body":"well, unfortunately be something that is selected for."},{"startTime":1785.245,"endTime":1789.547,"body":"So the question is, are the genetic markers, um, of violence, um, and rather disappointingly,"},{"startTime":1789.547,"endTime":1793.85,"body":"it turns out there are, um, and in fact the biggest one we know of"},{"startTime":1793.85,"endTime":1795.285,"body":"is this, uh, protein here."},{"startTime":1795.285,"endTime":1800.765,"body":"This is M-A-O-A-A mean oxidase, um, which is the product obviously of, of gene."},{"startTime":1801.425,"endTime":1806.27,"body":"And this gene was identified by a group who were working with a family in"},{"startTime":1806.27,"endTime":1811.115,"body":"the Netherlands, um, which has a, a, a remarkable and very sad history of extreme"},{"startTime":1811.115,"endTime":1812.085,"body":"violence in men."},{"startTime":1812.385,"endTime":1816.617,"body":"So in this family cohort, in this family tree, uh, men were highly likely to"},{"startTime":1816.617,"endTime":1820.285,"body":"conduct violent crime and end up in prison, the women, not at all."},{"startTime":1820.865,"endTime":1825.236,"body":"Um, and that immediately suggests there is something going on here that is on the"},{"startTime":1825.236,"endTime":1829.608,"body":"X chromosome because women, as you might recall from your GTSE biology, women carry two"},{"startTime":1829.608,"endTime":1833.98,"body":"x chromosomes, the xx, and therefore, if there's a genetic mutation, they would need it"},{"startTime":1833.98,"endTime":1838.352,"body":"on both of their chromosomes To show that phenotype, to show that, uh, trait men,"},{"startTime":1838.352,"endTime":1842.724,"body":"uh, have an X and a Y, and the Y is a tiny chromosome that's"},{"startTime":1842.724,"endTime":1844.765,"body":"largely empty, tells you something about men."},{"startTime":1845.025,"endTime":1849.081,"body":"Um, uh, and, and so we only need one copy, faulty copy on the X"},{"startTime":1849.081,"endTime":1851.245,"body":"chromosome to show whatever is associated with that."},{"startTime":1851.245,"endTime":1854.885,"body":"So there are lots of what's called X-linked diseases that show themselves in men."},{"startTime":1855.745,"endTime":1859.037,"body":"So the fact that this family had all the boys were violent and the girls"},{"startTime":1859.037,"endTime":1862.33,"body":"were perfectly normal, suggested there was a gene on the X chromosome that was somehow"},{"startTime":1862.33,"endTime":1864.965,"body":"associated with violence, and it turns out to be this one here."},{"startTime":1865.265,"endTime":1868.332,"body":"Um, and in fact, uh, if you look at the, the, the men in that"},{"startTime":1868.332,"endTime":1871.4,"body":"family who were in prison, essentially all of them carried this mutant form of, of"},{"startTime":1871.4,"endTime":1871.605,"body":"MAOA."},{"startTime":1872.305,"endTime":1875.445,"body":"That's pretty extreme, being violent enough to end up in prison."},{"startTime":1875.505,"endTime":1879.882,"body":"But it turns out that this gene is actually quite variable and all of us"},{"startTime":1879.882,"endTime":1881.925,"body":"have different, slightly different flavors of it."},{"startTime":1882.105,"endTime":1886.525,"body":"In particular, there's a variation that changes the amount of the protein you make."},{"startTime":1887.105,"endTime":1889.965,"body":"The more protein you make, essentially the less likely you are to be violent."},{"startTime":1889.965,"endTime":1894.322,"body":"You have a low level of this, uh, protein, you are more likely to respond"},{"startTime":1894.322,"endTime":1895.485,"body":"violently, particularly to provocation."},{"startTime":1895.945,"endTime":1899.954,"body":"So if you're the kind of person who loses your temper in, in a bit"},{"startTime":1899.954,"endTime":1903.963,"body":"of a road rage incident, you may have a low level of MAOA at the"},{"startTime":1903.963,"endTime":1904.765,"body":"moment in society."},{"startTime":1905.045,"endTime":1908.709,"body":"I guess, if anything, there might be a mild evolutionary pressure against that trait because"},{"startTime":1908.709,"endTime":1911.885,"body":"generally beating people up in a road rage and it's a bad idea."},{"startTime":1912.345,"endTime":1916.687,"body":"Um, and, and so there's no selective pressure, but in a scenario where the world"},{"startTime":1916.687,"endTime":1921.03,"body":"has fallen apart, uh, and you are all fighting, literally fighting for supplies, actually having"},{"startTime":1921.03,"endTime":1923.925,"body":"the variance that cause violence might be something selected for."},{"startTime":1924.185,"endTime":1927.501,"body":"Um, and so this I think is another gene, uh, that might end up, uh,"},{"startTime":1927.501,"endTime":1928.165,"body":"shaping our future."},{"startTime":1929.625,"endTime":1932.285,"body":"Um, so that is a really bleak scenario there."},{"startTime":1932.285,"endTime":1933.725,"body":"So the world's gonna have a massive pandemic."},{"startTime":1933.725,"endTime":1934.645,"body":"Most of us are gonna die."},{"startTime":1934.645,"endTime":1939.016,"body":"Those of us are gonna survive, are gonna have, you know, arthritis be lonely and"},{"startTime":1939.016,"endTime":1940.765,"body":"antisocial and also be very violent."},{"startTime":1941.105,"endTime":1943.005,"body":"Um, other than that, the world is gonna be great."},{"startTime":1943.025,"endTime":1946.525,"body":"So let's, let's, let's see if we can raise the tone a bit for, for"},{"startTime":1946.525,"endTime":1947.925,"body":"the last part of the lecture."},{"startTime":1948.025,"endTime":1952.565,"body":"So, so this is all about natural evolution and those processes happen all the time."},{"startTime":1952.585,"endTime":1956.595,"body":"But I think there is also, and of course one of the most fascinating things"},{"startTime":1956.595,"endTime":1960.606,"body":"over recent decades has been the fact that we now start to control to a"},{"startTime":1960.606,"endTime":1964.617,"body":"minor extent, but to control the trajectory of evolution of all sorts of things around"},{"startTime":1964.617,"endTime":1964.885,"body":"us."},{"startTime":1964.905,"endTime":1969.662,"body":"And we've talked earlier in this series about selecting, you know, livestock and domestic pets"},{"startTime":1969.662,"endTime":1971.565,"body":"and things, but also of ourselves."},{"startTime":1972.065,"endTime":1977.215,"body":"Uh, and we've been doing this by and large, only really for about one generation"},{"startTime":1977.215,"endTime":1982.365,"body":"out 40 or 50 years, where we have started to shape deliberately our own evolution."},{"startTime":1982.985,"endTime":1985.685,"body":"And of course, the place we've done that most is in terms of our reproduction."},{"startTime":1986.185,"endTime":1991.018,"body":"Um, IVF in vitro fertilization, originally, of course purely used as an ability to, to"},{"startTime":1991.018,"endTime":1994.885,"body":"enable people to have children who couldn't otherwise have children these days."},{"startTime":1995.195,"endTime":2000.362,"body":"Also used as a very, um, powerful tool actually to help people avoid, uh, genetic"},{"startTime":2000.362,"endTime":2002.085,"body":"disorders in, in their offspring."},{"startTime":2002.105,"endTime":2007.927,"body":"So typically, um, there are now something like 600 genetic disorders that can and often"},{"startTime":2007.927,"endTime":2010.645,"body":"are screened in embryos prior to implantation."},{"startTime":2010.665,"endTime":2014.851,"body":"So you can check that your, your future baby will not have a whole range"},{"startTime":2014.851,"endTime":2016.805,"body":"of diseases, um, before you implant it."},{"startTime":2016.805,"endTime":2019.765,"body":"And I think largely that has been a terrifically good thing."},{"startTime":2020.115,"endTime":2024.831,"body":"It's enabled people to, um, have children that don't have things like sickle cell anemia,"},{"startTime":2024.831,"endTime":2028.605,"body":"for example, Huntington's disease, cystic fibrosis, lots and lots of serious diseases."},{"startTime":2029.585,"endTime":2032.485,"body":"It does though lead to an evolutionary consequence."},{"startTime":2032.725,"endTime":2037.099,"body":"'cause what you have done is you have taken a genetic variant that by definition"},{"startTime":2037.099,"endTime":2041.473,"body":"you have and you have stopped it being passed onto your offspring even though you've"},{"startTime":2041.473,"endTime":2041.765,"body":"reproduced."},{"startTime":2042.145,"endTime":2046.175,"body":"So that is something that has never happened before in evolution, because as I said,"},{"startTime":2046.175,"endTime":2050.205,"body":"many times this lecture, the only options that were previously available were dying or reproducing."},{"startTime":2050.205,"endTime":2054.855,"body":"But now there's a third one you've edited, you've changed, uh, that offspring by selective"},{"startTime":2054.855,"endTime":2055.165,"body":"processes."},{"startTime":2056.475,"endTime":2061.184,"body":"That has been a really, really minor thing despite the large number of IVF babies"},{"startTime":2061.184,"endTime":2064.324,"body":"in terms of the overall genetic impact on, uh, society."},{"startTime":2064.585,"endTime":2069.192,"body":"But there's a lot more coming in particular the last 10 years, of course, we've"},{"startTime":2069.192,"endTime":2073.8,"body":"had this transformation of our genetic tools, particularly with the discovery of crispr, this, um,"},{"startTime":2073.8,"endTime":2078.408,"body":"technique by which you can very, very precisely edit DNA and change it, and something"},{"startTime":2078.408,"endTime":2083.016,"body":"that is now done in labs all around the world on all sorts of different"},{"startTime":2083.016,"endTime":2083.324,"body":"organisms."},{"startTime":2084.585,"endTime":2088.247,"body":"It is also being used now clinically in humans, and I would point out, but"},{"startTime":2088.247,"endTime":2090.445,"body":"thus far, not in a way that is heritable."},{"startTime":2090.784,"endTime":2094.394,"body":"So people are doing CRISPR editing of DNA, but not in the cells that you"},{"startTime":2094.394,"endTime":2098.005,"body":"will pass on to your offspring, not on your egg cells or your sperm cells."},{"startTime":2098.425,"endTime":2102.318,"body":"Um, and so what we're doing at the moment clinically is using it to treat"},{"startTime":2102.318,"endTime":2106.211,"body":"things in tissues of someone who's already got a disease, but potentially there is no"},{"startTime":2106.211,"endTime":2109.845,"body":"problem there, there's no barrier to using this to edit sperm and egg cells."},{"startTime":2110.065,"endTime":2113.565,"body":"Um, and therefore to create babies that have a different genetic compliment."},{"startTime":2113.825,"endTime":2117.845,"body":"Um, and of course, uh, this has happened despite a, a global moratorium on it."},{"startTime":2118.025,"endTime":2122.392,"body":"Um, one, uh, scientist in China who did this, um, ostensibly for, for positive reasons,"},{"startTime":2122.392,"endTime":2126.76,"body":"to edit the genome of two baby girls who are due to be born to"},{"startTime":2126.76,"endTime":2127.925,"body":"an HIV positive mother."},{"startTime":2128.385,"endTime":2132.706,"body":"Um, and to edit them in a way that made them resistant to HIV at"},{"startTime":2132.706,"endTime":2137.028,"body":"face value, a kind of positive thing to do, uh, but ethically an absolute minefield"},{"startTime":2137.028,"endTime":2139.045,"body":"and done with zero permission at all."},{"startTime":2139.045,"endTime":2140.765,"body":"And indeed he ended up in prison for it."},{"startTime":2140.765,"endTime":2144.045,"body":"But nonetheless, um, those two baby girls exist."},{"startTime":2144.045,"endTime":2148.73,"body":"They're out in, in the world somewhere, um, and are a new type of evolutionary"},{"startTime":2148.73,"endTime":2150.605,"body":"step, if you like, for humanity."},{"startTime":2150.625,"endTime":2153.845,"body":"And the question I think remains, is that something that will never happen again?"},{"startTime":2153.905,"endTime":2158.63,"body":"Or actually is that a sort of barrier that's now been broken and will, will"},{"startTime":2158.63,"endTime":2162.725,"body":"start to happen that raises all sorts of interesting and challenging ethical questions?"},{"startTime":2162.745,"endTime":2167.41,"body":"So for example, many of us in the room and certainly myself would say that"},{"startTime":2167.41,"endTime":2171.765,"body":"this process, um, has huge benefits, particularly for what we call monogenic serious diseases."},{"startTime":2171.765,"endTime":2177.022,"body":"So genes, so, so disorders where a single gene is affected and the consequence on"},{"startTime":2177.022,"endTime":2179.125,"body":"the, on the child is profound."},{"startTime":2179.185,"endTime":2184.445,"body":"So for example, cystic fibrosis, cystic fibrosis is called by a single faulty gene."},{"startTime":2184.675,"endTime":2186.165,"body":"It's relatively easy to correct."},{"startTime":2186.865,"endTime":2189.285,"body":"The consequence of having cystic fibrosis is pretty terrible."},{"startTime":2189.745,"endTime":2193.052,"body":"Um, so I suspect many of us in the room would say, actually, if there's"},{"startTime":2193.052,"endTime":2196.36,"body":"an opportunity to edit our genes to make sure our children didn't have cystic fibrosis,"},{"startTime":2196.36,"endTime":2198.125,"body":"that seems like a reasonable thing to do."},{"startTime":2199.335,"endTime":2202.685,"body":"There are lots of other diseases though, where actually it's a little bit less easy."},{"startTime":2203.145,"endTime":2207.165,"body":"So for example, there's a disease called y linked sperm genic failure."},{"startTime":2207.785,"endTime":2213.645,"body":"And in that process, um, boys, men are unable to reduce functional sperms."},{"startTime":2213.645,"endTime":2216.765,"body":"So they're sterile as a carrier of that gene."},{"startTime":2216.765,"endTime":2219.925,"body":"Even as a boy, you're not unhealthy, you're perfectly fit, uh, but you're sterile."},{"startTime":2220.425,"endTime":2222.685,"body":"Um, and so this is a disease and it's a single gene."},{"startTime":2222.685,"endTime":2224.988,"body":"So this is a disease where you could edit as a parent, you could say,"},{"startTime":2224.988,"endTime":2227.291,"body":"I don't want my son to be sterile, I'm gonna edit this gene to print"},{"startTime":2227.291,"endTime":2227.445,"body":"it."},{"startTime":2227.785,"endTime":2230.445,"body":"Um, and I can see a perfectly valid reason for doing that."},{"startTime":2230.865,"endTime":2234.479,"body":"But of course, you're doing it not for your child, but actually for your grandchildren,"},{"startTime":2234.479,"endTime":2235.925,"body":"it's a kind of insurance policy."},{"startTime":2235.985,"endTime":2239.601,"body":"So make sure you could have grandchildren years to come and starts to get a"},{"startTime":2239.601,"endTime":2240.325,"body":"little bit muddier."},{"startTime":2242.035,"endTime":2246.4,"body":"Monogenic diseases, single gene disorders are, uh, there are many, many of them, but they"},{"startTime":2246.4,"endTime":2247.565,"body":"are typically quite rare."},{"startTime":2247.825,"endTime":2250.965,"body":"But what we have a lot more of are polygenic diseases."},{"startTime":2250.965,"endTime":2256.012,"body":"Diseases where lots and lots of genes interact often with the environment to cause common,"},{"startTime":2256.012,"endTime":2256.685,"body":"uh, ailments."},{"startTime":2256.685,"endTime":2258.605,"body":"And so for example, atherosclerosis."},{"startTime":2258.865,"endTime":2263.165,"body":"So disease of of blood vessels, um, very, very common, particularly in Western Europe."},{"startTime":2263.435,"endTime":2269.031,"body":"Lots of this is about diet, smoking, poor health choices, but lots, it's also about"},{"startTime":2269.031,"endTime":2269.405,"body":"genes."},{"startTime":2269.405,"endTime":2273.905,"body":"There are genetic variants that make you more or less likely to things like high"},{"startTime":2273.905,"endTime":2278.405,"body":"cholesterol, um, and the impacts of atherosclerosis At the moment, we are a long way"},{"startTime":2278.405,"endTime":2282.905,"body":"off from being able to tweak all of these genes, but I don't think it's"},{"startTime":2282.905,"endTime":2283.205,"body":"impossible."},{"startTime":2283.485,"endTime":2286.525,"body":"I don't think it's gonna stay, you know, unfeasible for very long."},{"startTime":2287.545,"endTime":2290.875,"body":"We might find ourselves in the future where actually you could say, well, my baby"},{"startTime":2290.875,"endTime":2294.205,"body":"has got a higher than average risk of having a heart attack when they're 63."},{"startTime":2294.625,"endTime":2298.885,"body":"Um, I'm gonna edit all these 27 genes to make sure we lower their risk."},{"startTime":2299.545,"endTime":2301.285,"body":"And there would be a good rational reason to that."},{"startTime":2301.305,"endTime":2304.816,"body":"Of course, what we don't know is whether editing those 27 genes might have some"},{"startTime":2304.816,"endTime":2305.285,"body":"other effect."},{"startTime":2305.285,"endTime":2308.685,"body":"Maybe you're gonna reduce their risk of a heart attack, but you make them also,"},{"startTime":2308.685,"endTime":2310.725,"body":"I dunno, less good as a global tiddlywinks player."},{"startTime":2311.065,"endTime":2312.765,"body":"Um, and actually maybe that was their future."},{"startTime":2312.765,"endTime":2313.445,"body":"You've just changed."},{"startTime":2313.465,"endTime":2318.28,"body":"We don't, we don't know that even trickier when you're dealing with, uh, genes that"},{"startTime":2318.28,"endTime":2319.565,"body":"have very late effects."},{"startTime":2319.685,"endTime":2319.885,"body":"I think."},{"startTime":2319.905,"endTime":2324.445,"body":"So for example, Alzheimer's disease obviously absolutely devastating to people who suffer it."},{"startTime":2324.865,"endTime":2329.405,"body":"Um, with the exception of early onset Alzheimer's, typically a disease of old age."},{"startTime":2330.295,"endTime":2334.085,"body":"Again, a combination of chance, environmental factors, et cetera, et cetera."},{"startTime":2334.085,"endTime":2336.125,"body":"But also some genetic predisposition."},{"startTime":2336.745,"endTime":2339.085,"body":"We start to understand more about the genes there."},{"startTime":2339.235,"endTime":2343.066,"body":"What about if you were to be given the opportunity to edit your child, to"},{"startTime":2343.066,"endTime":2345.365,"body":"reduce their risk of Alzheimer's, it's not a guarantee."},{"startTime":2345.555,"endTime":2347.405,"body":"They might still get it, but it would reduce their risk."},{"startTime":2347.985,"endTime":2352.368,"body":"But only when they're 60, 70, 80 years old, is that something that we as"},{"startTime":2352.368,"endTime":2356.752,"body":"a society should accept, um, and therefore sort of evolve our species in a new"},{"startTime":2356.752,"endTime":2357.045,"body":"direction?"},{"startTime":2358.225,"endTime":2359.925,"body":"Or perhaps most controversially of all?"},{"startTime":2360.075,"endTime":2361.605,"body":"What about old age itself?"},{"startTime":2361.785,"endTime":2366.537,"body":"Uh, we know that there are genes associated with better health in old age longevity,"},{"startTime":2366.537,"endTime":2367.805,"body":"um, or poor health."},{"startTime":2367.805,"endTime":2372.605,"body":"At old age, you could immediately easily envisage a future in which people are offered"},{"startTime":2372.605,"endTime":2377.405,"body":"the choice to crisper edit their embryo, to extend their lifespan by five or six"},{"startTime":2377.405,"endTime":2377.725,"body":"years."},{"startTime":2378.025,"endTime":2381.205,"body":"Um, or perhaps their health spans the, the amount of time they spend healthily."},{"startTime":2381.205,"endTime":2383.447,"body":"And again, as a parent, I think many of us would say, well, that sounds"},{"startTime":2383.447,"endTime":2384.045,"body":"like a good idea."},{"startTime":2384.365,"endTime":2387.312,"body":"I won't be there to see it, but great, let's have my child here, a"},{"startTime":2387.312,"endTime":2388.885,"body":"hundred or 150, or, who knows what's possible?"},{"startTime":2389.265,"endTime":2393.681,"body":"Um, but you would be fundamentally shape, shape changing the trajectory, uh, for the future"},{"startTime":2393.681,"endTime":2394.565,"body":"of our species."},{"startTime":2395.065,"endTime":2399.005,"body":"And I think there's lots of really challenging questions for us, um, as, as humans."},{"startTime":2399.465,"endTime":2402.857,"body":"Uh, and, and I guess the biggest challenge is how we coordinate that globally, because"},{"startTime":2402.857,"endTime":2406.25,"body":"it's no good one country deciding it's gonna do it or not if nobody else"},{"startTime":2406.25,"endTime":2408.965,"body":"does, because you know, once the genie's outta the bottle, it's underway."},{"startTime":2410.465,"endTime":2413.669,"body":"And then what about the stuff that's got nothing at all to do with disease,"},{"startTime":2413.669,"endTime":2415.805,"body":"but is still for some people at least quite important."},{"startTime":2416.665,"endTime":2419.805,"body":"So this protein structure in front of you is alpha actinin."},{"startTime":2419.835,"endTime":2425.125,"body":"It's a muscle protein and it comes in different flavors, in particular different variants in"},{"startTime":2425.125,"endTime":2429.005,"body":"particular, there's one variant which is strongly associated with sprinting ability."},{"startTime":2429.465,"endTime":2433.453,"body":"And if you look at people who win gold medals with a hundred meter or"},{"startTime":2433.453,"endTime":2436.645,"body":"200 meters, the vast majority carry the sprint variant of this gene."},{"startTime":2437.425,"endTime":2440.898,"body":"It is entirely possible to edit your embryo if you wanted to, to make it"},{"startTime":2440.898,"endTime":2443.445,"body":"much more likely to be a sprinter than a nons sprinter."},{"startTime":2443.785,"endTime":2446.405,"body":"Um, you know, for many of us, I think that's completely pointless."},{"startTime":2446.465,"endTime":2447.245,"body":"Why would you want to do that?"},{"startTime":2447.245,"endTime":2450.808,"body":"But there are people out there who really, really want to see their child win"},{"startTime":2450.808,"endTime":2454.372,"body":"a gold medal and maybe they'll start to apply pressure to bring this kind of"},{"startTime":2454.372,"endTime":2455.085,"body":"skill into it."},{"startTime":2455.465,"endTime":2457.125,"body":"Or even really trivial things like height."},{"startTime":2457.265,"endTime":2461.205,"body":"We now, we've done lots of genome wide association studies for markers associated with height."},{"startTime":2461.705,"endTime":2465.493,"body":"It would be theoretically possible to engineer an embryo to have a far better chance"},{"startTime":2465.493,"endTime":2468.525,"body":"of becoming a, a two meter giant than the rest of us."},{"startTime":2468.825,"endTime":2471.769,"body":"Um, or alternatively, if you want a really small char, 'cause you've got another very"},{"startTime":2471.769,"endTime":2474.125,"body":"small house, um, maybe you could select them for that as well."},{"startTime":2474.385,"endTime":2478.566,"body":"Um, these things start to become achievable, uh, within, within the kind of grass of"},{"startTime":2478.566,"endTime":2478.845,"body":"science."},{"startTime":2480.725,"endTime":2484.841,"body":"I guess there's one slight cautionary tale here though, is that the more genetics we"},{"startTime":2484.841,"endTime":2488.958,"body":"do, the more powerful the tools get, the more we start to see how these,"},{"startTime":2488.958,"endTime":2490.605,"body":"uh, genetic influences shape our lives."},{"startTime":2490.945,"endTime":2493.902,"body":"Uh, but the more caution comes with it and, and the cautionary tale I have"},{"startTime":2493.902,"endTime":2495.085,"body":"is around this, is around music."},{"startTime":2496.145,"endTime":2500.725,"body":"You might think that music is a such a intrinsically kind of human cultural thing."},{"startTime":2500.725,"endTime":2503.405,"body":"It's got nothing to do with your genetics and you would unfortunately be wrong."},{"startTime":2503.785,"endTime":2508.062,"body":"Um, so there has been a study just a couple of years ago looking at"},{"startTime":2508.062,"endTime":2512.339,"body":"musicality or more specifically people's ability to do things associated with music, like keep a"},{"startTime":2512.339,"endTime":2513.765,"body":"rhythm or keep a tone."},{"startTime":2515.025,"endTime":2517.57,"body":"You can ask people whether they can keep rhythm or not, and you can test"},{"startTime":2517.57,"endTime":2520.116,"body":"them and you can divide them into those who can keep rhythm and, and those"},{"startTime":2520.116,"endTime":2520.965,"body":"like me who clearly can't."},{"startTime":2521.225,"endTime":2525.236,"body":"Um, and, and you can then do genetics on those and work out what genes"},{"startTime":2525.236,"endTime":2528.445,"body":"are associated with an enhanced musical ability or a less enhanced one."},{"startTime":2528.445,"endTime":2533.326,"body":"And you find, just like those previous graphs I've shown you, where these are all"},{"startTime":2533.326,"endTime":2538.207,"body":"different genes, the ones above the dotted line here are genes that are statistically, uh,"},{"startTime":2538.207,"endTime":2540.485,"body":"overrepresented in the more musical amongst us."},{"startTime":2540.515,"endTime":2540.805,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":2540.805,"endTime":2543.29,"body":"So if you carry lots, and you'll see there's loads and loads of them, as"},{"startTime":2543.29,"endTime":2544.285,"body":"you might expect, it's not straightforward."},{"startTime":2544.285,"endTime":2548.403,"body":"You're not either musical or not, but there are lots of genes, um, that if"},{"startTime":2548.403,"endTime":2552.522,"body":"you have these variants together, you are more likely to be a musical talent, um,"},{"startTime":2552.522,"endTime":2554.445,"body":"than a complete non-musical person like myself."},{"startTime":2555.185,"endTime":2559.449,"body":"So, um, so you might say, aha, what I would really like to have is"},{"startTime":2559.449,"endTime":2563.713,"body":"the next, you know, uh, I don't know, whatever, um, conductor of the Royal Albert"},{"startTime":2563.713,"endTime":2567.125,"body":"Hall or the next Joe Stellar violinist or, um, something like that."},{"startTime":2567.465,"endTime":2570.3,"body":"Um, I'm gonna edit my child for all of these things here and I'm gonna"},{"startTime":2570.3,"endTime":2571.245,"body":"make them super, super musical."},{"startTime":2571.385,"endTime":2574.325,"body":"And if you did that, you would be, uh, taking an enormous gamble."},{"startTime":2574.545,"endTime":2577.971,"body":"And we know that because of a really beautiful piece of very recent data, um,"},{"startTime":2577.971,"endTime":2578.885,"body":"from this chap here."},{"startTime":2578.885,"endTime":2582.005,"body":"This is Ludwig van Beethoven, um, who you might have heard of."},{"startTime":2582.005,"endTime":2586.487,"body":"He's a musician, um, and, uh, he's one of the world's most successful musicians ever"},{"startTime":2586.487,"endTime":2587.085,"body":"in history."},{"startTime":2587.545,"endTime":2592.535,"body":"And rather fortuitously, when Beethoven died, somebody had the good foresight to think this guy"},{"startTime":2592.535,"endTime":2597.525,"body":"was really famous, gonna keep his hair, and they kept a lock of Beethoven's hair."},{"startTime":2598.065,"endTime":2600.42,"body":"Um, and it turns out that when you keep a lock of someone's hair, you"},{"startTime":2600.42,"endTime":2601.205,"body":"keep their DNA with it."},{"startTime":2601.785,"endTime":2605.445,"body":"So very recently a group has sequenced Beethoven's genome."},{"startTime":2605.945,"endTime":2608.976,"body":"Uh, I don't think they got his permission, which is a bit worrying, but anyway,"},{"startTime":2608.976,"endTime":2611.805,"body":"um, they've sequenced genome, so we now know what Beethoven's uh, genome was like."},{"startTime":2612.185,"endTime":2616.13,"body":"Um, and so you can compare Beethoven to that recent study and you say, this"},{"startTime":2616.13,"endTime":2617.445,"body":"guy was a musical genius."},{"startTime":2617.735,"endTime":2618.885,"body":"Where does he fall on the spectrum?"},{"startTime":2619.265,"endTime":2621.485,"body":"And it turns out that he was massively unmusical."},{"startTime":2621.985,"endTime":2624.685,"body":"He was only in the ninth percentile."},{"startTime":2624.785,"endTime":2628.729,"body":"He was far less musical by genetics than the rest of us, uh, which I"},{"startTime":2628.729,"endTime":2631.885,"body":"think is a salutary lesson in relying too much, uh, on genetics."},{"startTime":2633.865,"endTime":2636.63,"body":"So finally then having projected this vision of the future in which we're all gonna"},{"startTime":2636.63,"endTime":2639.396,"body":"die horribly, um, and even if you think you're gonna be musical, you're not gonna"},{"startTime":2639.396,"endTime":2639.765,"body":"be musical."},{"startTime":2640.225,"endTime":2644.397,"body":"Um, there is one kind of straw left to grasp out maybe when it all"},{"startTime":2644.397,"endTime":2648.57,"body":"gets too much when we've boiled the earth through climate change and released all sorts"},{"startTime":2648.57,"endTime":2649.405,"body":"of horrible plagues."},{"startTime":2649.585,"endTime":2651.445,"body":"Um, and, and everything is falling around our ears."},{"startTime":2651.695,"endTime":2655.385,"body":"Maybe we just need to get out of here and we need to disappear off"},{"startTime":2655.385,"endTime":2657.845,"body":"planet earth, um, and colonize some new location like Mars."},{"startTime":2658.625,"endTime":2662.9,"body":"So if we were gonna do that, is there likely to be an evolutionary impact"},{"startTime":2662.9,"endTime":2664.325,"body":"for the colonists own Mars?"},{"startTime":2664.325,"endTime":2667.355,"body":"And of course the answer is of course there's going to be an evolutionary impact"},{"startTime":2667.355,"endTime":2668.365,"body":"and there are two options."},{"startTime":2668.425,"endTime":2670.678,"body":"It might be random, it might be the people who ended up there and the"},{"startTime":2670.678,"endTime":2671.43,"body":"rest of us, us didn't."},{"startTime":2671.945,"endTime":2675.286,"body":"Or you might, if you're gonna invest billions of dollars setting up a colony in"},{"startTime":2675.286,"endTime":2678.405,"body":"Mars, you might say, well, I don't want to take my chance on evolution."},{"startTime":2679.065,"endTime":2681.245,"body":"I'm going to, uh, stack the cards in my favor."},{"startTime":2681.345,"endTime":2685.205,"body":"I'm going to edit people who go to Mars with useful genes."},{"startTime":2685.205,"endTime":2685.845,"body":"So they're ready to go."},{"startTime":2686.145,"endTime":2687.005,"body":"And what might they be?"},{"startTime":2687.115,"endTime":2691.828,"body":"They may maybe be like, so you might for example, edit this, uh, genius, the"},{"startTime":2691.828,"endTime":2696.542,"body":"protein, uh, which has the really catchy name of SLC 24 A five, uh, trips"},{"startTime":2696.542,"endTime":2697.485,"body":"off the tongue."},{"startTime":2697.545,"endTime":2701.005,"body":"And this is a gene that regulates skin pigmentation."},{"startTime":2701.705,"endTime":2704.587,"body":"If you're on planets don't have a thick atmosphere like the uk, you're gonna get"},{"startTime":2704.587,"endTime":2706.125,"body":"a lot of uv, a lot of ultraviolet."},{"startTime":2706.425,"endTime":2708.885,"body":"Um, being pale and white skin is not a great choice."},{"startTime":2708.985,"endTime":2712.566,"body":"You are much more likely to get skin cancer, much better to have darker skin"},{"startTime":2712.566,"endTime":2712.805,"body":"pigmentation."},{"startTime":2712.805,"endTime":2716.652,"body":"So you might edit your astronauts to have the version of this that's associated with"},{"startTime":2716.652,"endTime":2717.165,"body":"darker skin."},{"startTime":2717.515,"endTime":2720.623,"body":"Simpler way obviously would be just to recruit astronauts who are already dark skinned in"},{"startTime":2720.623,"endTime":2721.245,"body":"the first place."},{"startTime":2721.585,"endTime":2724.565,"body":"Um, but, but nonetheless as a genetic editing tool, you could, you could do this."},{"startTime":2726.305,"endTime":2727.885,"body":"You might also want to edit this one."},{"startTime":2727.885,"endTime":2729.165,"body":"This is EPAs one."},{"startTime":2729.355,"endTime":2734.485,"body":"This is a protein, um, that is associated with blood vessel thickness and oxygen use."},{"startTime":2734.545,"endTime":2738.702,"body":"And it turns out there is a variant of this gene that helps people survive"},{"startTime":2738.702,"endTime":2740.365,"body":"in low oxygen at high altitude."},{"startTime":2740.635,"endTime":2744.281,"body":"It's very, very common in, in people, for example, on the Tibetan plateau at high"},{"startTime":2744.281,"endTime":2744.525,"body":"altitude."},{"startTime":2745.025,"endTime":2747.725,"body":"Um, uh, uh, but very uncommon in the rest of us who live down here"},{"startTime":2747.725,"endTime":2749.165,"body":"on, on more or less at sea level."},{"startTime":2749.985,"endTime":2753.266,"body":"Um, because you're gonna be in an environment with no oxygen, it's gonna be quite"},{"startTime":2753.266,"endTime":2753.485,"body":"scarce."},{"startTime":2753.785,"endTime":2756.973,"body":"Um, I think it would be quite sensible thing to edit all your astronauts to"},{"startTime":2756.973,"endTime":2760.161,"body":"have the version of this that lets them get by on lower oxygen so they"},{"startTime":2760.161,"endTime":2762.925,"body":"don't all black out and have altitude sickness the entire time also there."},{"startTime":2762.925,"endTime":2764.245,"body":"So you might wanna edit that one there."},{"startTime":2765.145,"endTime":2767.205,"body":"Um, or how about this one?"},{"startTime":2767.205,"endTime":2771.645,"body":"This is neuropeptide y It drives signaling in the brain."},{"startTime":2772.065,"endTime":2775.485,"body":"Um, and in particular, uh, it, it is correlated quite strongly."},{"startTime":2775.485,"endTime":2778.885,"body":"Different levels are correlated quite strongly with anxiety and depression."},{"startTime":2779.665,"endTime":2783.41,"body":"If you are gonna take six months closed in a spaceship to get to Mars,"},{"startTime":2783.41,"endTime":2787.155,"body":"you really don't want someone who's gonna get a bit anxious and depressed on day"},{"startTime":2787.155,"endTime":2787.405,"body":"one."},{"startTime":2787.665,"endTime":2790.76,"body":"And so you might edit all your astronauts to have the version of this that's"},{"startTime":2790.76,"endTime":2792.205,"body":"associated with being really quite chilled out."},{"startTime":2792.465,"endTime":2793.285,"body":"Um, so they're quite mad."},{"startTime":2793.285,"endTime":2795.835,"body":"Of course there's a slight downside they might get to Mars and be so chilled"},{"startTime":2795.835,"endTime":2796.005,"body":"out."},{"startTime":2796.005,"endTime":2797.085,"body":"They don't do anything when they get there."},{"startTime":2797.425,"endTime":2800.39,"body":"Um, but nonetheless, you might want to kind of edit all these sort of things"},{"startTime":2800.39,"endTime":2802.565,"body":"here and, and there are more and more and more examples."},{"startTime":2802.565,"endTime":2806.85,"body":"So I think, you know, there is a real question about to what extent would"},{"startTime":2806.85,"endTime":2808.565,"body":"you intervene in this going forward?"},{"startTime":2808.905,"endTime":2812.648,"body":"And I guess my last cautionary tale would be you can do all of this"},{"startTime":2812.648,"endTime":2814.645,"body":"and you still won't necessarily predict the future."},{"startTime":2814.865,"endTime":2818.721,"body":"And so perhaps the best lesson of all of this is if you want to"},{"startTime":2818.721,"endTime":2822.577,"body":"ensure yourselves about whatever might be coming about the future evolution of humanity by far"},{"startTime":2822.577,"endTime":2826.434,"body":"and away, the best way you can do that is to ensure you have lots"},{"startTime":2826.434,"endTime":2829.005,"body":"and lots of diversity in your gene pool right now."},{"startTime":2829.305,"endTime":2833.675,"body":"And so the positive message to end this otherwise pretty apocalyptic kind of lecture on,"},{"startTime":2833.675,"endTime":2838.045,"body":"um, is that all the things we do to increase equality, diversity, and the movement"},{"startTime":2838.045,"endTime":2842.125,"body":"of people all around the world are actually pretty sound things to do evolutionarily."},{"startTime":2842.505,"endTime":2845.085,"body":"And on that minorly upbeat note, I will finish there."},{"startTime":2845.085,"endTime":2845.685,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":2855.765,"endTime":2857.765,"body":"I think the great hit referenced it very well."},{"startTime":2857.885,"endTime":2859.765,"body":"I mean, there is a lot of question about food."},{"startTime":2859.905,"endTime":2860.645,"body":"Oh no, \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":2860.835,"endTime":2862.165,"body":"Yeah, and bird feeders."},{"startTime":2862.165,"endTime":2863.365,"body":"See I told you, we all feed our birds."},{"startTime":2863.365,"endTime":2863.885,"body":"That's why"},{"startTime":2864.205,"endTime":2866.405,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e, um, I love that one."},{"startTime":2866.905,"endTime":2873.947,"body":"Um, are there good effects of high cholesterol genes and, uh, what would be negative"},{"startTime":2873.947,"endTime":2876.765,"body":"consequences of removing such a variance?"},{"startTime":2877.235,"endTime":2878.485,"body":"Yeah, so that's a good question."},{"startTime":2878.585,"endTime":2882.428,"body":"So, um, so high cholesterol is associated with heart disease and all sorts of negative"},{"startTime":2882.428,"endTime":2882.685,"body":"problems."},{"startTime":2882.905,"endTime":2886.991,"body":"And actually there's a broader, broader question here is that lots of the things that"},{"startTime":2886.991,"endTime":2890.805,"body":"are associated with poor health today are actually quite useful back in evolutionary time."},{"startTime":2890.805,"endTime":2896.041,"body":"So for example, gene variants that accumulate cholesterol, bad idea if you are in wealthy"},{"startTime":2896.041,"endTime":2898.485,"body":"UK and with free access to chocolate."},{"startTime":2898.905,"endTime":2900.165,"body":"Um, pretty good idea."},{"startTime":2900.175,"endTime":2903.749,"body":"Maybe 50,000 years ago when food was scarce and you needed to get every last"},{"startTime":2903.749,"endTime":2907.085,"body":"available bit of fat outta the dead wooly mammoth you were eating or something."},{"startTime":2907.305,"endTime":2910.814,"body":"Um, and so actually these, these kind of allude to that kind of suggestion that"},{"startTime":2910.814,"endTime":2914.323,"body":"a lot of our modern health problems are about the fact that we're adapted to"},{"startTime":2914.323,"endTime":2917.365,"body":"a kind of neolithic diet, but now we're subjecting ourselves to other things."},{"startTime":2917.385,"endTime":2920.862,"body":"So, so that's a long way of saying yes, there are right at the moment"},{"startTime":2920.862,"endTime":2922.485,"body":"not so great in, in modern society."},{"startTime":2923.515,"endTime":2923.805,"body":"Good."},{"startTime":2924.345,"endTime":2927.405,"body":"Um, I'm going to ask another question related to food."},{"startTime":2927.745,"endTime":2932.151,"body":"Should a non GMO food be as desirable as some food packages claim it to"},{"startTime":2932.151,"endTime":2932.445,"body":"be?"},{"startTime":2932.865,"endTime":2933.325,"body":"Oh my goodness."},{"startTime":2933.325,"endTime":2934.365,"body":"That's a bit left field, right?"},{"startTime":2934.565,"endTime":2937.915,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e should, uh, should, should, well, I mean the desirability of food is quite tricky"},{"startTime":2937.915,"endTime":2939.925,"body":"because that's, I mean, it's very personal, isn't it?"},{"startTime":2939.965,"endTime":2944.052,"body":"I dunno, you know, um, I'm looking around the audience here, like Brussels sprouts, definitely"},{"startTime":2944.052,"endTime":2944.325,"body":"not."},{"startTime":2944.325,"endTime":2946.405,"body":"Uh, I bet there some of you at least eat brussel sprouts."},{"startTime":2946.405,"endTime":2947.885,"body":"They're not edible, actually can't eat a brussel sprout."},{"startTime":2947.885,"endTime":2948.485,"body":"They're disgusting."},{"startTime":2948.705,"endTime":2951.878,"body":"Um, it, it, so, so I think there's a, you know, the, the desirability of"},{"startTime":2951.878,"endTime":2952.725,"body":"thing is really tricky."},{"startTime":2952.765,"endTime":2954.485,"body":"I mean, I guess there's sort of evolutionary question there."},{"startTime":2954.485,"endTime":2957.773,"body":"If you're gonna go to Mars and you're all gonna be drinking stuff that's basically"},{"startTime":2957.773,"endTime":2961.061,"body":"just toothpaste, um, uh, you know, might, would you want to select these people who"},{"startTime":2961.061,"endTime":2964.349,"body":"are, you know, just don't care about food, for example, not the people like me"},{"startTime":2964.349,"endTime":2965.445,"body":"who are obsessed with it."},{"startTime":2965.705,"endTime":2969.277,"body":"Um, and, uh, because actually, you know, if you're the kind of person who lives"},{"startTime":2969.277,"endTime":2972.85,"body":"for a sort of fantastic meal out on a Friday night, you're not gonna do"},{"startTime":2972.85,"endTime":2973.565,"body":"well in Mars."},{"startTime":2973.585,"endTime":2974.845,"body":"So maybe, maybe we'll select for that."},{"startTime":2975.225,"endTime":2977.125,"body":"If someone wanted to do any of this, could you stop them?"},{"startTime":2977.125,"endTime":2981.854,"body":"Well, so the short answer is not really, I mean, you can obviously send 'em"},{"startTime":2981.854,"endTime":2982.485,"body":"to prison."},{"startTime":2982.585,"endTime":2983.405,"body":"You can do all sorts of things."},{"startTime":2983.405,"endTime":2988.347,"body":"There are, there are, at, at the moment it still requires pretty advanced laboratory facilities"},{"startTime":2988.347,"endTime":2990.325,"body":"to do most of these things."},{"startTime":2990.345,"endTime":2994.535,"body":"So I, I guess we would have an early indication if a billionaire started building"},{"startTime":2994.535,"endTime":2998.726,"body":"a really fantastic lab and their apparent reason, um, we might get some, my early"},{"startTime":2998.726,"endTime":2999.285,"body":"sickness signs."},{"startTime":2999.285,"endTime":3000.885,"body":"You might be able to intervene quite hard to do that."},{"startTime":3000.965,"endTime":3002.245,"body":"'cause they haven't committed a crime at that stage."},{"startTime":3002.245,"endTime":3002.525,"body":"Of course."},{"startTime":3002.865,"endTime":3006.052,"body":"Um, I mean in the case of the, of the two, uh, children in, in"},{"startTime":3006.052,"endTime":3007.965,"body":"China, you know, the, the science went to prison."},{"startTime":3008.385,"endTime":3010.805,"body":"Um, and he's not gonna work again as a kind of scientist, I think."},{"startTime":3010.805,"endTime":3013.485,"body":"Uh, but those two children exist and so it's sort of answer the bottle."},{"startTime":3013.685,"endTime":3017.616,"body":"I do think there is a real kind of society dialogue we need to have"},{"startTime":3017.616,"endTime":3021.285,"body":"about, not if this happens, but when it happens, how you deal with it."},{"startTime":3021.365,"endTime":3024.943,"body":"I mean, for example, if someone was to do a genetic change that was, we"},{"startTime":3024.943,"endTime":3028.045,"body":"really felt was quite bad, would you do something different to those people?"},{"startTime":3028.165,"endTime":3030.765,"body":"I mean it's, you know, would you treat those children differently somehow?"},{"startTime":3030.885,"endTime":3033.073,"body":"I mean, that sounds awful, but, you know, how would you, how would you deal"},{"startTime":3033.073,"endTime":3033.365,"body":"with that?"},{"startTime":3033.425,"endTime":3036.508,"body":"So, so yeah, that's a, that depressingly the answer I think is no, you can't"},{"startTime":3036.508,"endTime":3037.125,"body":"really stop it."},{"startTime":3037.425,"endTime":3040.893,"body":"You just have to hope that people's good sense prevail, which historically has not always"},{"startTime":3040.893,"endTime":3041.125,"body":"happened."},{"startTime":3043.685,"endTime":3043.805,"body":"Actually."},{"startTime":3043.805,"endTime":3048.972,"body":"Some, someone is asking about editing genes and embryos or can you, so can you"},{"startTime":3048.972,"endTime":3054.14,"body":"only edit genes and embryos or can you fully, can fully grown humans receive edited"},{"startTime":3054.14,"endTime":3054.485,"body":"genes?"},{"startTime":3054.995,"endTime":3056.525,"body":"Yeah, so, so, so both."},{"startTime":3056.785,"endTime":3061.012,"body":"So in, in fully grown humans, and that's already under clinical trial and number of"},{"startTime":3061.012,"endTime":3065.239,"body":"conditions, you can change genes in, in some cells in some tissues, but not in"},{"startTime":3065.239,"endTime":3066.085,"body":"the whole human."},{"startTime":3066.145,"endTime":3070.334,"body":"So for example, if you have a cystic fibrosis, which is a lung disease, obviously"},{"startTime":3070.334,"endTime":3073.965,"body":"you can edit the DNA in their lungs, um, by inhaled, uh, processes."},{"startTime":3074.185,"endTime":3077.925,"body":"Um, but it wouldn't affect their genes particularly elsewhere, especially in, in their germ cells."},{"startTime":3077.925,"endTime":3079.685,"body":"So in the eggs and sperm that will be inherited."},{"startTime":3079.685,"endTime":3083.885,"body":"And that's one of the reasons why that is, um, essentially allowed, uh, all over"},{"startTime":3083.885,"endTime":3084.725,"body":"the world now."},{"startTime":3084.925,"endTime":3086.805,"body":"'cause it's not, you're not changing the future resolution."},{"startTime":3087.185,"endTime":3089.565,"body":"If you want to edit in a way that is stable forever."},{"startTime":3090.025,"endTime":3092.285,"body":"The way you normally do that is editing at a single cell stage."},{"startTime":3092.305,"endTime":3096.028,"body":"So either spare more eggs, um, and then you, because essentially there's a hundred percent"},{"startTime":3096.028,"endTime":3096.525,"body":"success then."},{"startTime":3096.525,"endTime":3099.445,"body":"And then you can kind of, um, you know, grow up that embryo from there."},{"startTime":3099.825,"endTime":3101.805,"body":"Um, and that's the way it's done kind of commercially at the moment."},{"startTime":3102.625,"endTime":3106.316,"body":"In theory, you could design a system that was so effective, it would change the"},{"startTime":3106.316,"endTime":3108.285,"body":"DNA in every single cell of your body."},{"startTime":3108.665,"endTime":3111.843,"body":"Um, I, I think I, that's really very challenging and I, I guess you, the"},{"startTime":3111.843,"endTime":3115.021,"body":"question would be why you would do that because it's easier just to edit the"},{"startTime":3115.021,"endTime":3115.445,"body":"single cells."},{"startTime":3115.755,"endTime":3116.245,"body":"Alright."},{"startTime":3116.665,"endTime":3122.716,"body":"Um, yeah, this may be slightly tangential, but uh, when you were talking about Mars,"},{"startTime":3122.716,"endTime":3128.365,"body":"you mentioned a gene for, um, oxygen, um, found in Tibet and so on."},{"startTime":3128.645,"endTime":3132.587,"body":"I read somewhere and I wonder if you can confirm it, that such a gene"},{"startTime":3132.587,"endTime":3136.005,"body":"might have been in, uh, inherited from the de so branch is that"},{"startTime":3136.185,"endTime":3138.965,"body":"You, you are very well read indeed and in indeed that's quite correct."},{"startTime":3138.985,"endTime":3142.941,"body":"So for those not familiar with the stories, Denis Saban are an extinct branch of,"},{"startTime":3142.941,"endTime":3146.898,"body":"uh, of human evolutionary history, um, known only really from, uh, so Russia and, and"},{"startTime":3146.898,"endTime":3150.855,"body":"Saur and that that part of the world, um, which despite the fact they're now"},{"startTime":3150.855,"endTime":3154.285,"body":"extinct, we know nothing about them, have clearly contributed genes to modern humans."},{"startTime":3155.185,"endTime":3159.78,"body":"epa one, this genetic variant associated, the variant that is associated with high altitude living"},{"startTime":3159.78,"endTime":3161.925,"body":"appears to be a Denis Aven gene."},{"startTime":3161.925,"endTime":3166.404,"body":"And so one model is that during the human migration into higher areas of Asia"},{"startTime":3166.404,"endTime":3170.883,"body":"in particular, they met and interbred with Denis s those hybrid humans had a massive"},{"startTime":3170.883,"endTime":3174.765,"body":"advantage 'cause they could live high in the altitude, um, the others couldn't."},{"startTime":3174.765,"endTime":3177.725,"body":"And so that gene has been selected for, so yes, it's another, it's another gene."},{"startTime":3177.725,"endTime":3180.285,"body":"We owe our dead relatives for those of us who have it."},{"startTime":3182.075,"endTime":3182.365,"body":"Good."},{"startTime":3182.825,"endTime":3186.205,"body":"We have a question on actually, um, global warming."},{"startTime":3186.515,"endTime":3191.005,"body":"What kind of evolutionary changes do you think global warming may have on humans?"},{"startTime":3191.555,"endTime":3195.365,"body":"Have we started to understand how this might affect us?"},{"startTime":3196.195,"endTime":3196.805,"body":"Yeah, yeah."},{"startTime":3196.805,"endTime":3199.005,"body":"So the impact of climate change on humans directly."},{"startTime":3199.705,"endTime":3203.557,"body":"So if you think about the way evolution works, which essentially is through death and,"},{"startTime":3203.557,"endTime":3207.409,"body":"and reproduction, as I said, not withstanding genetic editing, what you'd be, I guess what"},{"startTime":3207.409,"endTime":3211.005,"body":"you're thinking about are things where climate change will kill people with particular variation."},{"startTime":3211.725,"endTime":3214.613,"body":"I think at the moment, if you look at the world as a whole, unfortunately"},{"startTime":3214.613,"endTime":3217.501,"body":"the people who are gonna be most affected by climate change, it's not about their"},{"startTime":3217.501,"endTime":3220.005,"body":"genetics, it's about where they live and the kind of resource they have."},{"startTime":3220.215,"endTime":3223.665,"body":"Those of us in colder climates with good air conditioning will probably make it, um,"},{"startTime":3223.665,"endTime":3226.885,"body":"those people in hotter parts of the world without access to that will not."},{"startTime":3227.145,"endTime":3230.925,"body":"Um, so a very bleak scenario is that it will essentially drive populations of humans"},{"startTime":3230.925,"endTime":3233.445,"body":"to extinction who are in those parts of the world."},{"startTime":3233.445,"endTime":3235.765,"body":"Mm-hmm, \u003caffirmative\u003e, um, let's hope it doesn't get anywhere near that."},{"startTime":3236.065,"endTime":3237.925,"body":"Um, there are some sort of trivial things that might change."},{"startTime":3237.985,"endTime":3240.045,"body":"So for example, it's possible."},{"startTime":3240.105,"endTime":3242.685,"body":"So infant mortality, babies overheat quite easily."},{"startTime":3243.305,"endTime":3246.885,"body":"Um, and so infant mortality might go up in a very warm world."},{"startTime":3247.265,"endTime":3251.686,"body":"And so you might imagine that genetic variants associated with things like better sweating, less"},{"startTime":3251.686,"endTime":3256.107,"body":"body hair, um, might be selected for, uh, you know, for that to be apparent"},{"startTime":3256.107,"endTime":3259.645,"body":"in the gene pool, you'd have to have really quite high mortality."},{"startTime":3259.665,"endTime":3261.885,"body":"And that is a really bleak and depressing thought."},{"startTime":3262.235,"endTime":3262.925,"body":"Lots of dead babies."},{"startTime":3263.225,"endTime":3265.977,"body":"Um, but it is a possibility I think that, that, you know, well, let's, let's"},{"startTime":3265.977,"endTime":3267.445,"body":"hope we never get there, but it's possible."},{"startTime":3267.875,"endTime":3268.165,"body":"Okay."},{"startTime":3268.995,"endTime":3277.402,"body":"With, uh, orangutans now applying medical bandages, is there evidence that primates are evolving more"},{"startTime":3277.402,"endTime":3280.205,"body":"quickly, like swallows and tits?"},{"startTime":3281.395,"endTime":3285.376,"body":"Yeah, so, so for the gray tapes like the ANGs, uh, unfortunately probably the single"},{"startTime":3285.376,"endTime":3287.765,"body":"biggest evolution thing that's happened to them is us."},{"startTime":3287.905,"endTime":3291.833,"body":"Um, because, you know, most of the, most of the great eight populations are, are"},{"startTime":3291.833,"endTime":3293.405,"body":"strongly threatened because of human activity."},{"startTime":3293.985,"endTime":3298.192,"body":"I'm not aware of any research done on kind of evolution of those species, but"},{"startTime":3298.192,"endTime":3302.399,"body":"for instance, it might be possible that they, we have selected for great apes that"},{"startTime":3302.399,"endTime":3305.765,"body":"are more wary of humans because that's quite a good survival trait."},{"startTime":3306.305,"endTime":3311.084,"body":"Um, I, I guess there's a slight, uh, sort of correlation there in terms, so"},{"startTime":3311.084,"endTime":3315.864,"body":"generally evolution works fastest in organisms with very large populations and very short generation times"},{"startTime":3315.864,"endTime":3320.325,"body":"like bacteria because your, your kind of, your clock is running really, really fast."},{"startTime":3320.605,"endTime":3325.725,"body":"Primates of course are big slow evolving because they're, they, they have long generation times."},{"startTime":3326.385,"endTime":3330.264,"body":"Um, uh, I guess one of the interesting sort of, uh, questions associated with that"},{"startTime":3330.264,"endTime":3333.885,"body":"particular, that story you're just talking about there is what might select for intelligence."},{"startTime":3333.945,"endTime":3338.133,"body":"So is it possible, for example, um, that because of selective pressure on gray tapes,"},{"startTime":3338.133,"endTime":3340.925,"body":"the most intelligent gray tapes, the ones that are surviving?"},{"startTime":3341.045,"endTime":3343.07,"body":"'cause they're the ones that realize that the guy coming with a gun is a"},{"startTime":3343.07,"endTime":3344.285,"body":"bad idea and you should run the other way."},{"startTime":3344.665,"endTime":3348.023,"body":"Um, and I don't, I don't know of any data on that, but it wouldn't"},{"startTime":3348.023,"endTime":3351.382,"body":"it be quite an interesting thought experiment to roll the clock towards a million years"},{"startTime":3351.382,"endTime":3354.741,"body":"and wonder if, you know, we're all extinct 'cause of that pandemic I keep talking"},{"startTime":3354.741,"endTime":3354.965,"body":"about."},{"startTime":3355.345,"endTime":3359.778,"body":"Um, but actually other selective processes have driven evolution of intelligence in, for example, a"},{"startTime":3359.778,"endTime":3363.325,"body":"primate that is now the dominant species on the, on the planet."},{"startTime":3363.665,"endTime":3366.248,"body":"Um, that that, you know, was it planet the apes is maybe not as farfetched"},{"startTime":3366.248,"endTime":3366.765,"body":"as we thought."},{"startTime":3367.065,"endTime":3372.65,"body":"Um, you mentioned that, uh, there was effect of Bob Plague on, um, so basically"},{"startTime":3372.65,"endTime":3374.885,"body":"survivors had more strong community system."},{"startTime":3375.705,"endTime":3382.248,"body":"Do you know anything about similar, well, any other effect of COVID-19 on traits in"},{"startTime":3382.248,"endTime":3382.685,"body":"humans?"},{"startTime":3383.385,"endTime":3386.085,"body":"And so another, sorry, another disease process that's driven it."},{"startTime":3386.565,"endTime":3391.965,"body":"I mean, those who survived COVID-19, uh, or those who died from COVID-19."},{"startTime":3391.965,"endTime":3392.165,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3392.165,"endTime":3393.165,"body":"Difference between them."},{"startTime":3393.305,"endTime":3393.525,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3393.625,"endTime":3394.365,"body":"So COVID-19."},{"startTime":3394.365,"endTime":3396.085,"body":"So yes, so there has been some work done on that."},{"startTime":3396.105,"endTime":3400.315,"body":"And indeed, um, even though, I mean I, you gotta be careful how you say"},{"startTime":3400.315,"endTime":3404.525,"body":"this, you know, even so COVID-19 was a huge disaster in terms of statistical loss."},{"startTime":3404.665,"endTime":3406.845,"body":"One in a thousand people worldwide COVID-19."},{"startTime":3406.845,"endTime":3409.725,"body":"So on an evolutionary scale, that's a relatively small selective pressure."},{"startTime":3410.115,"endTime":3414.925,"body":"Despite that you can indeed see, um, genetic markers of survival."},{"startTime":3415.265,"endTime":3419.205,"body":"So particularly in patients who went into intensive care, who, who didn't."},{"startTime":3419.465,"endTime":3422.669,"body":"So there's been some studies done on, on populations who both got covid to 19,"},{"startTime":3422.669,"endTime":3424.165,"body":"some end up in hospitals, some didn't."},{"startTime":3424.465,"endTime":3427.685,"body":"The ones who didn't have a number of genetic variants that are more common."},{"startTime":3427.685,"endTime":3432.57,"body":"And one of the most interesting things is that some of those genetic variants are,"},{"startTime":3432.57,"endTime":3436.805,"body":"um, like the, like the bubonic plague example are associated with high immunity."},{"startTime":3437.345,"endTime":3441.368,"body":"Um, and some of this, this one or two that seem to be neandertal gene"},{"startTime":3441.368,"endTime":3445.391,"body":"variants that are present in some members of the population and not others, um, and"},{"startTime":3445.391,"endTime":3447.805,"body":"have conferred an advantage in fighting off the virus."},{"startTime":3448.265,"endTime":3452.343,"body":"Um, and so there's ironically many of us here today who have survived Covid to"},{"startTime":3452.343,"endTime":3456.422,"body":"19 owe that to these kind of neandertal variants there, uh, long term whether those"},{"startTime":3456.422,"endTime":3460.501,"body":"will become, will be visible in the human population in a thousand years time, will"},{"startTime":3460.501,"endTime":3462.405,"body":"we, will we see this genetic bottle?"},{"startTime":3462.845,"endTime":3466.397,"body":"I don't know because one in a thousand is not a huge case, but yes,"},{"startTime":3466.397,"endTime":3468.765,"body":"there is definitely, it has also selected particular genetic variants."},{"startTime":3472.055,"endTime":3472.805,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":3474.325,"endTime":3477.005,"body":"I had two statements and then end of a question."},{"startTime":3477.665,"endTime":3482.57,"body":"So firstly, there was a point raised around genetic changes to our children offsprings for"},{"startTime":3482.57,"endTime":3484.205,"body":"the sake of competitive advantages."},{"startTime":3484.385,"endTime":3487.531,"body":"So I could say, you know, a person sitting next to me, we're at a"},{"startTime":3487.531,"endTime":3490.677,"body":"sports day now I would love to say, oh, my son or my daughter wins"},{"startTime":3490.677,"endTime":3492.565,"body":"that sprint race because of a, a genetic change."},{"startTime":3493.465,"endTime":3496.432,"body":"But within that, there is a a point for all of us, which is we"},{"startTime":3496.432,"endTime":3499.005,"body":"each having a choice to make rather than something being forced upon us."},{"startTime":3499.275,"endTime":3502.445,"body":"However, at the same time there's a country in Central Asia."},{"startTime":3502.545,"endTime":3506.885,"body":"Now, I can't recall exactly what country is ends of astan, can't remember which one."},{"startTime":3507.195,"endTime":3511.979,"body":"However, what they've done is they've considered the science, they've considered the technology and they've"},{"startTime":3511.979,"endTime":3516.445,"body":"said to themselves, we are gonna create the best Olympics set up possibly ever."},{"startTime":3517.145,"endTime":3518.965,"body":"And they're implementing it at a state level."},{"startTime":3519.865,"endTime":3522.485,"body":"Now geopolitics enters into the conversation."},{"startTime":3522.985,"endTime":3526.165,"body":"So it firstly started with me versus my neighbor here and our kids."},{"startTime":3526.165,"endTime":3530.702,"body":"But then it kind of extrapolates further out to countries versus countries that are competitive"},{"startTime":3530.702,"endTime":3531.005,"body":"advantage."},{"startTime":3531.825,"endTime":3535.704,"body":"So my question for you, professor, is if you were to advise the government of"},{"startTime":3535.704,"endTime":3539.584,"body":"the UK around a policy and a strategy in a, in a nutty, simple, hopefully"},{"startTime":3539.584,"endTime":3543.205,"body":"in a witty way as well, what would you say to them about this?"},{"startTime":3545.545,"endTime":3547.605,"body":"Uh, nice easy question there, right?"},{"startTime":3547.605,"endTime":3548.205,"body":"What would I say?"},{"startTime":3548.305,"endTime":3549.925,"body":"Uh, I'm not sure I can make it witty at all."},{"startTime":3549.955,"endTime":3552.309,"body":"Well, I mean basically what I would say is that's a really bad idea and"},{"startTime":3552.309,"endTime":3553.565,"body":"it's a bad idea on lots of levels."},{"startTime":3553.785,"endTime":3557.291,"body":"Um, a because as I think we've shown you, you really can't guarantee anything with"},{"startTime":3557.291,"endTime":3557.525,"body":"genetics."},{"startTime":3558.125,"endTime":3561.875,"body":"B uh, you know, even if you could absolutely guarantee that you're gonna have a"},{"startTime":3561.875,"endTime":3565.625,"body":"population that's amazing at the Olympics or whatever else, how do you possibly know that's"},{"startTime":3565.625,"endTime":3568.125,"body":"gonna be useful by the time those people become older?"},{"startTime":3568.385,"endTime":3572.813,"body":"So for example, you know, a hundred years ago being able to do beautiful calligraphy"},{"startTime":3572.813,"endTime":3575.765,"body":"was quite a strong selective advantage using a mobile phone."},{"startTime":3575.785,"endTime":3579.485,"body":"Not so much now quite a big difference in that kind of profile."},{"startTime":3579.485,"endTime":3582.516,"body":"So I think any attempt to kind of predict what will be useful going forward"},{"startTime":3582.516,"endTime":3583.325,"body":"is, is pretty poor."},{"startTime":3583.625,"endTime":3587.813,"body":"Um, but the second thing I would say is absolutely your first point there is"},{"startTime":3587.813,"endTime":3590.605,"body":"that, you know, fundamentally human choice is incredibly important here."},{"startTime":3590.905,"endTime":3594.164,"body":"And even if you are an absolute dictation, I think history tells us that, you"},{"startTime":3594.164,"endTime":3595.685,"body":"know, absolute t chips ultimately always fail."},{"startTime":3596.065,"endTime":3599.72,"body":"Um, and so any attempt to sort of engineer a population in that way is"},{"startTime":3599.72,"endTime":3603.375,"body":"always kind of doomed to failure, I hope, which is maybe a slightly more upbeat"},{"startTime":3603.375,"endTime":3605.325,"body":"ending than some of the other ones, \u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3605.715,"endTime":3608.885,"body":"Well, thank you very much, professor me for this wonderful lecture."},{"startTime":3609.095,"endTime":3609.845,"body":"Thank you very much."}]}