{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":14.265,"endTime":19.52,"body":"And over the past, uh, five lectures this year, we've been talking about when net"},{"startTime":19.52,"endTime":23.725,"body":"zero and the case for stopping global warming as soon as possible."},{"startTime":30.265,"endTime":35.57,"body":"And in, in the last lecture, we were talking about how the longer we allow"},{"startTime":35.57,"endTime":40.876,"body":"global warming to progress, the more likely it is that people will start to resort"},{"startTime":40.876,"endTime":46.181,"body":"to the more, the, the, the somewhat crazier solutions like solar geo engineer, solar geoengineering,"},{"startTime":46.181,"endTime":49.365,"body":"which might actually have quite destabilizing politically political consequences."},{"startTime":64.305,"endTime":70.351,"body":"So what in, in this, um, uh, in, in, in these ledges is how do"},{"startTime":70.351,"endTime":76.398,"body":"we, um, address the danger of net zero, uh, in the UK becoming the next"},{"startTime":76.398,"endTime":77.205,"body":"Brexit issue?"},{"startTime":77.385,"endTime":79.205,"body":"It, it already seems to be happening."},{"startTime":94.765,"endTime":95.965,"body":"I suppose we could vote against them."},{"startTime":96.285,"endTime":99.245,"body":"I wouldn't possibly couldn't possibly comment on who I'm talking about here."},{"startTime":99.785,"endTime":106.137,"body":"Um, but, uh, I think the, the bigger question everybody who's interested in climate policy"},{"startTime":106.137,"endTime":112.49,"body":"should be thinking about is how do we avoid playing into the hands of those"},{"startTime":112.49,"endTime":116.725,"body":"who are looking to make net zero a divisive issue?"},{"startTime":124.625,"endTime":129.076,"body":"So, I, I was, when I was writing the outlines to these lectures last year,"},{"startTime":129.076,"endTime":133.527,"body":"I was thinking I'd be talking more about the international, um, justice questions, and we"},{"startTime":133.527,"endTime":135.605,"body":"will touch on that in the lecture."},{"startTime":136.585,"endTime":141.597,"body":"But over the past year, um, net zero and inclusion in net zero policy has"},{"startTime":141.597,"endTime":144.605,"body":"become a bigger and bigger issue in the uk."},{"startTime":144.625,"endTime":149.17,"body":"So I'm gonna be thinking a bit about Net zero in UK policies, uh, politics"},{"startTime":149.17,"endTime":150.685,"body":"and, and what's happening there."},{"startTime":151.145,"endTime":156.267,"body":"Um, it doesn't look like being that big an issue in the coming election, um,"},{"startTime":156.267,"endTime":160.365,"body":"although it's already interestingly emerging in some, some corners of the uk."},{"startTime":185.345,"endTime":187.805,"body":"So, um, you know, that's what we need to worry about."},{"startTime":187.925,"endTime":188.805,"body":"I mean, it's interesting."},{"startTime":188.905,"endTime":193.546,"body":"So I I, I highlighted will highlight in this, uh, uh, in this lecture the"},{"startTime":193.546,"endTime":198.188,"body":"sort of risks of technocratic solutions and ending up with a slogan that I hope"},{"startTime":198.188,"endTime":200.045,"body":"we can perhaps all unite around."},{"startTime":200.215,"endTime":202.845,"body":"Let's come back onto that, okay?"},{"startTime":212.025,"endTime":216.42,"body":"Um, I do think people who hold up no net zero posters, so, well, so"},{"startTime":216.42,"endTime":217.885,"body":"you want climate change forever."},{"startTime":218.785,"endTime":220.085,"body":"Um, probably not."},{"startTime":220.825,"endTime":225.19,"body":"Um, but I think we need to actually raise the game a bit, um, in"},{"startTime":225.19,"endTime":229.556,"body":"political discussion around net zero, so that if you're gonna say, I don't like these"},{"startTime":229.556,"endTime":231.885,"body":"policies, well, what are the policies you do?"},{"startTime":236.695,"endTime":241.679,"body":"We've kind of got there with financial debate in politics, it's sort of, it's considered"},{"startTime":241.679,"endTime":244.005,"body":"not very cool to offer completely unfunded."},{"startTime":247.665,"endTime":250.208,"body":"Um, and, and, you know, so when you, when you make a promise, you're expected"},{"startTime":250.208,"endTime":251.565,"body":"to say how you're gonna pay for it."},{"startTime":256.065,"endTime":258.925,"body":"If you're gonna say, no, we're, we're not gonna have any nuclear power plants."},{"startTime":259.285,"endTime":260.204,"body":"So what are you gonna have?"},{"startTime":260.584,"endTime":262.084,"body":"Or no, we're not gonna have any solar farms."},{"startTime":273.825,"endTime":279.566,"body":"Um, and, um, but, you know, as you, we've also got to be very careful"},{"startTime":279.566,"endTime":285.308,"body":"about things that are actually nothing to do with Net Zero, like the les, for"},{"startTime":285.308,"endTime":287.605,"body":"example, being swept up into it."},{"startTime":291.545,"endTime":293.965,"body":"Um, by the way, I, I think Les is a fantastic idea."},{"startTime":296.405,"endTime":298.685,"body":"I think the cleaner London's air the better."},{"startTime":299.185,"endTime":302.485,"body":"Um, uh, I, please don't attack me afterwards."},{"startTime":304.825,"endTime":306.925,"body":"Um, but this lecture is not about the Les."},{"startTime":330.665,"endTime":335.87,"body":"Um, because he's been told by, by Saudi Khan that, that Yules is all part"},{"startTime":335.87,"endTime":337.605,"body":"of our net zero agenda."},{"startTime":339.105,"endTime":343.925,"body":"The impact of Yules on UK emissions is probably quite minimal."},{"startTime":348.945,"endTime":351.205,"body":"And so, and this, and this is, this is a problem."},{"startTime":382.145,"endTime":388.753,"body":"And, uh, Sharon Graham, the, uh, unite, uh, uh, chairwoman, um, uh, some Secretary General,"},{"startTime":388.753,"endTime":395.362,"body":"um, uh, uh, has, has, uh, warned that oil and gas workers risk becoming the"},{"startTime":395.362,"endTime":397.565,"body":"coal miners of our generation."},{"startTime":398.145,"endTime":403.707,"body":"And they're putting, um, uh, uh, posters up all over Scotland saying No ban without"},{"startTime":403.707,"endTime":407.045,"body":"a plan, which actually is a pretty good slogan."},{"startTime":407.245,"endTime":408.725,"body":"I mean, I think we'd all be in favor of a plan."},{"startTime":416.425,"endTime":420.76,"body":"Um, there is a, a real danger, I think here, and this is what I"},{"startTime":420.76,"endTime":425.096,"body":"mean about, um, the danger of the next administration being too politically, as I used"},{"startTime":425.096,"endTime":428.565,"body":"the phrase to theater, it doesn't go down too badly with people."},{"startTime":442.865,"endTime":446.985,"body":"So, for example, we all know, as a matter of geology, the number of jobs"},{"startTime":446.985,"endTime":451.106,"body":"in North Sea oil and gas extraction is going to go down a lot in"},{"startTime":451.106,"endTime":452.205,"body":"the next 20 years."},{"startTime":512.784,"endTime":517.541,"body":"Now that prices have come back down to more normal levels, but the symbolism matters,"},{"startTime":517.541,"endTime":519.445,"body":"um, and people will remember it."},{"startTime":520.265,"endTime":524.878,"body":"And, you know, as evidence that symbols matter, um, remember that coal mine, ENC Cambria,"},{"startTime":524.878,"endTime":529.492,"body":"I mean, rumor has it that the company that wanted to get this coal mine"},{"startTime":529.492,"endTime":534.106,"body":"licensed, um, a few months after COP 26 wasn't really interested in the amount amount"},{"startTime":534.106,"endTime":536.26,"body":"of coal that could produce at all."},{"startTime":556.765,"endTime":562.965,"body":"I mean, this, uh, is new gas pipeline infrastructure going in in Guyana, a country,"},{"startTime":562.965,"endTime":569.165,"body":"um, that has very ambitious climate goals has already declared that it's reached net zero."},{"startTime":580.035,"endTime":581.005,"body":"Okay, there you go."},{"startTime":581.055,"endTime":582.725,"body":"You'd have to concentrate in these lectures."},{"startTime":592.265,"endTime":596.221,"body":"Um, and they've also just discovered a huge amount of oil and gas off the"},{"startTime":596.221,"endTime":596.485,"body":"coast."},{"startTime":596.505,"endTime":600.125,"body":"And there's actually a, there's a quite a fun interview on hard talk."},{"startTime":618.985,"endTime":624.378,"body":"Um, I don't, the, the reason I'm sort of raising this is I, it's very"},{"startTime":624.378,"endTime":629.772,"body":"clear that the president of Guyana would be completely unimpressed by a decision by the"},{"startTime":629.772,"endTime":635.165,"body":"UK to leave the remains of our royal and gas in the ground in the"},{"startTime":635.165,"endTime":635.885,"body":"North Sea."},{"startTime":636.145,"endTime":641.085,"body":"So for him, I don't think that symbol, well, you can judge for yourself, watch"},{"startTime":641.085,"endTime":646.025,"body":"the, watch the interview, but I don't think that symbol would, um, have any resonance"},{"startTime":646.025,"endTime":650.965,"body":"whatsoever, which is why I think we could do, we could do much more things,"},{"startTime":650.965,"endTime":655.906,"body":"which would be much more powerfully symbolic with the remains of our North Sea oil"},{"startTime":655.906,"endTime":656.565,"body":"and gas."},{"startTime":659.005,"endTime":663.123,"body":"Anything we do with the UK's remaining fossil fuel reserves will be largely symbolic in"},{"startTime":663.123,"endTime":665.045,"body":"the, in the grand scheme of things."},{"startTime":665.895,"endTime":667.325,"body":"We've already dug it up and burnt it."},{"startTime":672.235,"endTime":677.266,"body":"It's not that important with, um, um, I know there's people in the room who"},{"startTime":677.266,"endTime":682.298,"body":"worry about, um, licensing of North Sea, and so of course it's, you know, um,"},{"startTime":682.298,"endTime":687.33,"body":"but, uh, but, but nevertheless, it's, it, it, it's, it, it's, it's a small part"},{"startTime":687.33,"endTime":690.685,"body":"of the global, uh, it's a, uh, of global reserves."},{"startTime":690.985,"endTime":693.95,"body":"And so I think we, but we, we can think, we should be thinking quite"},{"startTime":693.95,"endTime":696.125,"body":"hard about its symbolic value and what we do with it."},{"startTime":715.505,"endTime":721.936,"body":"Um, one thing I'm not going to talk about, um, in this lecture is the"},{"startTime":721.936,"endTime":728.367,"body":"sort of most important injustice of all, um, which is illustrated by this amazing power"},{"startTime":728.367,"endTime":734.798,"body":"of maps, which show you country's contributions to global warming over the second half of"},{"startTime":734.798,"endTime":736.085,"body":"the 20th century."},{"startTime":759.765,"endTime":764.277,"body":"Now you can see, you know, the, the, the really striking thing is that how"},{"startTime":764.277,"endTime":768.79,"body":"different the two maps look and how sort of squeezed and thin Africa is in,"},{"startTime":768.79,"endTime":773.302,"body":"in the, in the top map and how dominant Africa and India are in, in"},{"startTime":773.302,"endTime":774.205,"body":"the bottom map."},{"startTime":787.545,"endTime":792.285,"body":"It is very important, but I wanna talk about justice in climate solutions."},{"startTime":792.625,"endTime":799.24,"body":"So how do we ensure that the climate solutions we, um, we implement are inclusive"},{"startTime":799.24,"endTime":801.005,"body":"and fair on everyone?"},{"startTime":801.005,"endTime":805.138,"body":"Because there is a real problem that many of the solutions to climate, and I"},{"startTime":805.138,"endTime":808.445,"body":"think we just have to take this head on and acknowledge it."},{"startTime":808.445,"endTime":814.974,"body":"Many of the solutions to climate change that we talk about today, um, from, you"},{"startTime":814.974,"endTime":821.503,"body":"know, um, parochial issues, um, like, uh, the, uh, replacing, uh, home heating systems, uh,"},{"startTime":821.503,"endTime":828.033,"body":"or, uh, electrifying transport in the uk, um, have the potential, at least if we're"},{"startTime":828.033,"endTime":830.645,"body":"not careful, to, um, exacerbate inequalities."},{"startTime":856.685,"endTime":860.814,"body":"So, so rich, rich households, they, they've been normalized to the same number of people"},{"startTime":860.814,"endTime":861.365,"body":"per household."},{"startTime":888.025,"endTime":892.059,"body":"So, so, so in terms of the contribution to carbon footprint, so this is the"},{"startTime":892.059,"endTime":896.093,"body":"amount of CO2 in the vertical contribution to carbon footprint, um, as a function of,"},{"startTime":896.093,"endTime":898.245,"body":"of, of what, how, how wealthy you are."},{"startTime":898.595,"endTime":902.525,"body":"Then as we go across your, your, um, mobility."},{"startTime":902.905,"endTime":907.784,"body":"So travel and flights and so on increases, um, as you go up to, uh,"},{"startTime":907.784,"endTime":912.664,"body":"uh, the, the, the highest income households and, you know, more and more of your"},{"startTime":912.664,"endTime":917.543,"body":"carbon is generated by leisure activities and things, which, you know, you could probably afford"},{"startTime":917.543,"endTime":918.845,"body":"to do less of."},{"startTime":947.485,"endTime":949.725,"body":"And this study sort of documents and quantifies it."},{"startTime":996.625,"endTime":1000.586,"body":"Um, but the main striking point about it is that it's gonna be, uh, uh,"},{"startTime":1000.586,"endTime":1004.548,"body":"given where we're at at the moment, some parts of the UK are gonna have"},{"startTime":1004.548,"endTime":1006.925,"body":"to go, um, further than others, so to speak."},{"startTime":1007.345,"endTime":1012.21,"body":"Um, or, and, and it's already the kind of north South London, the rest of"},{"startTime":1012.21,"endTime":1017.076,"body":"the country divide that has been such a problem in the past in terms of"},{"startTime":1017.076,"endTime":1017.725,"body":"social divisions."},{"startTime":1027.204,"endTime":1032.964,"body":"And without change to existing policies and strategies, um, new and unique inequalities will emerge."},{"startTime":1033.385,"endTime":1037.125,"body":"Um, and so we need to be very careful about net zero their points."},{"startTime":1037.185,"endTime":1041.178,"body":"The main point of the report is we need to be very careful about net"},{"startTime":1041.178,"endTime":1042.243,"body":"zero policies, exacerbating inequalities."},{"startTime":1063.945,"endTime":1069.578,"body":"Now inequalities globally is something called the carbon border adjustment mechanism, which Europe is introducing,"},{"startTime":1069.578,"endTime":1075.211,"body":"um, in, in recognition of the fact that, um, if Europe is imposing, uh, carbon"},{"startTime":1075.211,"endTime":1080.844,"body":"pricing on heavy industry, um, then it'll be, you know, cheaper to produce steel in"},{"startTime":1080.844,"endTime":1086.478,"body":"China than it is to produce in Europe, because there might be a lower carbon"},{"startTime":1086.478,"endTime":1087.605,"body":"price in China."},{"startTime":1087.945,"endTime":1093.351,"body":"So Europe's solution to this is to introduce something called the carbon border adjustment mechanism,"},{"startTime":1093.351,"endTime":1098.758,"body":"which means that in effect, um, uh, if Brussels doesn't feel that your, um, climate"},{"startTime":1098.758,"endTime":1103.805,"body":"policies are good enough, then they impose a, a huge tariff on the imports."},{"startTime":1103.805,"endTime":1108.877,"body":"And it's a starting off with, uh, a few, a few high carbon products like"},{"startTime":1108.877,"endTime":1111.245,"body":"steel cement, uh, aluminum and so on."},{"startTime":1111.665,"endTime":1116.565,"body":"Um, and, but eventually it would be escalated to, to a large range of products."},{"startTime":1116.565,"endTime":1122.072,"body":"And already a lot of African countries are suddenly discovering that, uh, it's going to"},{"startTime":1122.072,"endTime":1127.58,"body":"be difficult for them to export to Europe unless they can prove to Brussels that,"},{"startTime":1127.58,"endTime":1130.885,"body":"um, their climate policies are as good as Europe's."},{"startTime":1148.105,"endTime":1149.325,"body":"Um, why did you say that?"},{"startTime":1151.315,"endTime":1155.645,"body":"It's already raising pretty serious hackles around the world."},{"startTime":1156.305,"endTime":1161.07,"body":"Um, and it's just too easy for the global warming policy foundation to sort of"},{"startTime":1161.07,"endTime":1164.565,"body":"caricature it as, you know, the rich world putting up barriers."},{"startTime":1164.825,"endTime":1172.142,"body":"So gratuitously, I mean, it's this sort of thing that worries me about a very"},{"startTime":1172.142,"endTime":1178.485,"body":"common framing, um, around climate, which is the sort of climate emergency framing."},{"startTime":1190.765,"endTime":1192.925,"body":"You should only talk about the climate emergency."},{"startTime":1193.625,"endTime":1197.557,"body":"Um, and apparently in Britain were one of the countries in the world where people"},{"startTime":1197.557,"endTime":1200.965,"body":"believe in the climate emergency, uh, more than anywhere else in the world."},{"startTime":1201.085,"endTime":1203.972,"body":"I thought it was a interesting statistic, or at least it was a few years"},{"startTime":1203.972,"endTime":1204.165,"body":"ago."},{"startTime":1218.505,"endTime":1222.481,"body":"Um, I mean, the first thing that people, I mean, um, the first, the first"},{"startTime":1222.481,"endTime":1226.458,"body":"thing people do when, when there's a, an an when they've declared an emergency is"},{"startTime":1226.458,"endTime":1228.845,"body":"they, they stop really bothering to consult very much."},{"startTime":1229.385,"endTime":1235.703,"body":"Um, when, when Europe was in a energy emergency, which it was an emergency following"},{"startTime":1235.703,"endTime":1242.021,"body":"the invasion of Ukraine, um, they dealt with it by building a bunch of new"},{"startTime":1242.021,"endTime":1243.285,"body":"LNG import terminals."},{"startTime":1243.785,"endTime":1248.559,"body":"Um, the way they got those through so fast, um, in Germany, um, which is"},{"startTime":1248.559,"endTime":1253.333,"body":"notoriously slow at making infrastructure decisions, um, they simply reduce the normal consultation period from"},{"startTime":1253.333,"endTime":1254.925,"body":"six months to six days."},{"startTime":1276.345,"endTime":1278.125,"body":"It generally means something's gone wrong."},{"startTime":1278.925,"endTime":1286.315,"body":"I mean, that the term's being abused, um, and climate is the kind of issue"},{"startTime":1286.315,"endTime":1289.765,"body":"that will, you know, unfold over decades."},{"startTime":1305.105,"endTime":1308.03,"body":"So we don't need to worry too much about the details of asking to people,"},{"startTime":1308.03,"endTime":1310.565,"body":"too many questions about whether they like the way we're going about it."},{"startTime":1310.575,"endTime":1313.445,"body":"We're just gonna crack on and, and do it."},{"startTime":1314.545,"endTime":1320.141,"body":"Um, and, um, so, so, you know, 'cause 'cause in the end, um, you know,"},{"startTime":1320.141,"endTime":1324.245,"body":"climate policy is for everyone and people have to be included."},{"startTime":1340.205,"endTime":1345.357,"body":"I mean, the most successful climate policy in Britain over the past 40 years was"},{"startTime":1345.357,"endTime":1346.045,"body":"undoubtedly Mrs."},{"startTime":1373.065,"endTime":1378.54,"body":"So, you know, that's, uh, I mean, it was effective, but it's not the way"},{"startTime":1378.54,"endTime":1379.635,"body":"to do it."},{"startTime":1381.655,"endTime":1384.035,"body":"Um, we need, we need to bring people along."},{"startTime":1416.855,"endTime":1418.875,"body":"Um, because in the end, it's, it's for everyone."},{"startTime":1419.295,"endTime":1422.875,"body":"Um, of course, it doesn't mean that everybody will benefit from climate policy."},{"startTime":1423.675,"endTime":1428.556,"body":"I mean, some people will gain, some people will lose, but we need everybody to"},{"startTime":1428.556,"endTime":1431.485,"body":"understand why we're doing what we're doing and why."},{"startTime":1423.675,"endTime":1428.556,"body":"I mean, some people will gain, some people will lose, but we need everybody to"},{"startTime":1428.556,"endTime":1431.485,"body":"understand why we're doing what we're doing and why."},{"startTime":1448.265,"endTime":1454.07,"body":"Um, so, and, and you know, we're gonna talk a lot next year about specific"},{"startTime":1454.07,"endTime":1454.845,"body":"climate solutions."},{"startTime":1448.265,"endTime":1454.07,"body":"Um, so, and, and you know, we're gonna talk a lot next year about specific"},{"startTime":1454.07,"endTime":1454.845,"body":"climate solutions."},{"startTime":1479.385,"endTime":1484.895,"body":"Um, and there's 2 1, 1 particular thing that one particular, um, uh, argument I"},{"startTime":1484.895,"endTime":1490.405,"body":"want to pick up on is, um, the notion of, um, sort of fair share."},{"startTime":1479.385,"endTime":1484.895,"body":"Um, and there's 2 1, 1 particular thing that one particular, um, uh, argument I"},{"startTime":1484.895,"endTime":1490.405,"body":"want to pick up on is, um, the notion of, um, sort of fair share."},{"startTime":1494.025,"endTime":1499.776,"body":"Um, the notion of fair shares, of global emissions, of remaining global emissions, because this"},{"startTime":1499.776,"endTime":1505.527,"body":"is an, it's just an example of, of in what I see as the dangers"},{"startTime":1505.527,"endTime":1507.445,"body":"of doing policy by algorithm."},{"startTime":1494.025,"endTime":1499.776,"body":"Um, the notion of fair shares, of global emissions, of remaining global emissions, because this"},{"startTime":1499.776,"endTime":1505.527,"body":"is an, it's just an example of, of in what I see as the dangers"},{"startTime":1505.527,"endTime":1507.445,"body":"of doing policy by algorithm."},{"startTime":1508.345,"endTime":1514.849,"body":"Um, so the Climate Action Tracker, an extremely influential, um, NG well, NGO led, um,"},{"startTime":1514.849,"endTime":1517.885,"body":"science-based initiative, um, uh, led outta Berlin."},{"startTime":1508.345,"endTime":1514.849,"body":"Um, so the Climate Action Tracker, an extremely influential, um, NG well, NGO led, um,"},{"startTime":1514.849,"endTime":1517.885,"body":"science-based initiative, um, uh, led outta Berlin."},{"startTime":1524.325,"endTime":1530.391,"body":"They, they, they grade countries on their performance, um, relative to 1.5 or two degree"},{"startTime":1530.391,"endTime":1536.458,"body":"goals, and they give them a sort of orange, green, or red generally read, um,"},{"startTime":1536.458,"endTime":1538.885,"body":"score for how badly they're doing."},{"startTime":1524.325,"endTime":1530.391,"body":"They, they, they grade countries on their performance, um, relative to 1.5 or two degree"},{"startTime":1530.391,"endTime":1536.458,"body":"goals, and they give them a sort of orange, green, or red generally read, um,"},{"startTime":1536.458,"endTime":1538.885,"body":"score for how badly they're doing."},{"startTime":1539.505,"endTime":1546.664,"body":"Um, and at the heart of this is the Climate Action Trackers analysis of what"},{"startTime":1546.664,"endTime":1550.005,"body":"is your fair share of global emissions."},{"startTime":1539.505,"endTime":1546.664,"body":"Um, and at the heart of this is the Climate Action Trackers analysis of what"},{"startTime":1546.664,"endTime":1550.005,"body":"is your fair share of global emissions."},{"startTime":1574.545,"endTime":1579.069,"body":"Um, and so this is a figure from a recent paper that she led, which"},{"startTime":1579.069,"endTime":1582.085,"body":"shows there are many different, she's a international legal scholar."},{"startTime":1574.545,"endTime":1579.069,"body":"Um, and so this is a figure from a recent paper that she led, which"},{"startTime":1579.069,"endTime":1582.085,"body":"shows there are many different, she's a international legal scholar."},{"startTime":1582.085,"endTime":1586.542,"body":"She's been at the heart of climate, um, policy, um, formation for, for the past,"},{"startTime":1586.542,"endTime":1590.999,"body":"uh, uh, well, for 20 years or so, um, heavily involved in, in the, uh,"},{"startTime":1590.999,"endTime":1592.485,"body":"drafting of the Paris Agreement."},{"startTime":1582.085,"endTime":1586.542,"body":"She's been at the heart of climate, um, policy, um, formation for, for the past,"},{"startTime":1586.542,"endTime":1590.999,"body":"uh, uh, well, for 20 years or so, um, heavily involved in, in the, uh,"},{"startTime":1590.999,"endTime":1592.485,"body":"drafting of the Paris Agreement."},{"startTime":1593.505,"endTime":1599.317,"body":"Um, and, and she, she points out there are many ways of determining, um, what"},{"startTime":1599.317,"endTime":1602.805,"body":"a, a country's fair share of emissions might be."},{"startTime":1593.505,"endTime":1599.317,"body":"Um, and, and she, she points out there are many ways of determining, um, what"},{"startTime":1599.317,"endTime":1602.805,"body":"a, a country's fair share of emissions might be."},{"startTime":1603.265,"endTime":1608.215,"body":"Um, you know, uh, what's their cap, what's their capability for reducing emissions, for example,"},{"startTime":1608.215,"endTime":1610.525,"body":"as one of the things highlighted there."},{"startTime":1611.105,"endTime":1616.005,"body":"Or, um, should we be aiming for equal emissions per head of population?"},{"startTime":1616.225,"endTime":1618.405,"body":"So that's another criteria you could use."},{"startTime":1619.145,"endTime":1623.313,"body":"Um, or should we be looking at the responsibility of the country for the climate"},{"startTime":1623.313,"endTime":1627.205,"body":"changes that have already happened, depending on how much they've emitted in the past?"},{"startTime":1627.205,"endTime":1631.985,"body":"Thinking back to those, um, distorted maps I was showing you about country's contributions to"},{"startTime":1631.985,"endTime":1636.765,"body":"past emissions and all these are gonna give you different answers and ranges of answers."},{"startTime":1637.425,"endTime":1643.689,"body":"And here's some illustrations of the range of answers you get for where emissions should"},{"startTime":1643.689,"endTime":1644.525,"body":"be now."},{"startTime":1645.745,"endTime":1653.557,"body":"Um, well at least, um, in, in the past few years, um, relative to different"},{"startTime":1653.557,"endTime":1658.765,"body":"ways of calculating countries fair shares of, um, ongoing emissions."},{"startTime":1659.665,"endTime":1663.525,"body":"Um, and just to highlight one here, this is the G 20 countries there."},{"startTime":1673.225,"endTime":1676.045,"body":"So that's where, where emissions going up or down and so on."},{"startTime":1676.105,"endTime":1678.685,"body":"So if it's below a hundred percent, it's gone."},{"startTime":1702.345,"endTime":1704.545,"body":"We'd be taking CO2 back out of the atmosphere."},{"startTime":1707.135,"endTime":1709.865,"body":"We'd be past net zero already for it."},{"startTime":1709.865,"endTime":1710.305,"body":"To be fair."},{"startTime":1712.005,"endTime":1717.183,"body":"Um, the only two countries that come out sort of more or less close to"},{"startTime":1717.183,"endTime":1719.945,"body":"their fair share are India and, uh, Indonesia."},{"startTime":1737.445,"endTime":1742.345,"body":"But I actually have a fundamental problem with, with this sort of fair share analysis,"},{"startTime":1742.345,"endTime":1747.245,"body":"because it's sort of the, the kind of te tennis of it and the, the,"},{"startTime":1747.245,"endTime":1752.145,"body":"the discussion with Lani goes on, and of course, she's a lawyer, so I've, I'm"},{"startTime":1752.145,"endTime":1754.105,"body":"sure it'll lend badly for me."},{"startTime":1754.485,"endTime":1759.912,"body":"Um, but, um, but my, my worry about it is it sort of implies that"},{"startTime":1759.912,"endTime":1765.339,"body":"by virtue of our existence, we all have a right to do irrevocable harm to"},{"startTime":1765.339,"endTime":1766.425,"body":"the global environment."},{"startTime":1771.325,"endTime":1774.865,"body":"Uh, and, and LA would argue that I'm caricaturing their position and fair enough."},{"startTime":1811.065,"endTime":1815.079,"body":"So, um, you know, uh, because of course the total amount that needs to be"},{"startTime":1815.079,"endTime":1816.685,"body":"done is set by basic physics."},{"startTime":1817.745,"endTime":1821.53,"body":"So, you know, if this, no matter how you cut it, you've gotta work out"},{"startTime":1821.53,"endTime":1823.045,"body":"this sort of allocation, uh, problem."},{"startTime":1823.705,"endTime":1828.308,"body":"Um, and, and as I say, I, I, I, I think they may be, my"},{"startTime":1828.308,"endTime":1832.605,"body":"feeling is they're asking the wrong question, at least in the climate action tracker."},{"startTime":1851.385,"endTime":1855.469,"body":"And so if you suddenly turn around and tell the British voter, oh, um, we've"},{"startTime":1855.469,"endTime":1859.554,"body":"done this fair share analysis and we decided we have to stop emissions tomorrow, it's"},{"startTime":1859.554,"endTime":1862.005,"body":"gonna be like, well, well, who did the analysis?"},{"startTime":1862.065,"endTime":1863.045,"body":"You know, why?"},{"startTime":1863.045,"endTime":1866.292,"body":"Where, you know, telling them that, oh, well, I've run the model is, is not"},{"startTime":1866.292,"endTime":1866.725,"body":"gonna work."},{"startTime":1872.785,"endTime":1878.776,"body":"Um, um, there's another initiative, similar lines, but targeting companies rather than countries called a"},{"startTime":1878.776,"endTime":1884.767,"body":"science-based Targets initiative, um, and which will be coming back to in, in one of"},{"startTime":1884.767,"endTime":1886.365,"body":"our lectures next year."},{"startTime":1899.505,"endTime":1903.641,"body":"So sort of how much should emissions be coming down in the oil in the,"},{"startTime":1903.641,"endTime":1907.777,"body":"in the steel sector, and then compare a company's performance to what should be happening"},{"startTime":1907.777,"endTime":1908.605,"body":"within that sector."},{"startTime":1909.105,"endTime":1913.749,"body":"And we'll get it, you know, the, the, these are detailed and complex calculations we'll"},{"startTime":1913.749,"endTime":1916.845,"body":"get into, um, sort of how that works next year."},{"startTime":1917.465,"endTime":1923.627,"body":"Um, but the crucial problem is, you know, deep in these integrated assessment models, there"},{"startTime":1923.627,"endTime":1927.325,"body":"are all kinds of assumptions about what is fair."},{"startTime":1928.505,"endTime":1935.466,"body":"Um, because the, the, the models, although, although these are, these models don't, they're not"},{"startTime":1935.466,"endTime":1942.428,"body":"explicit about the fact they're looking, um, for allocating shares, they still, um, calculate a"},{"startTime":1942.428,"endTime":1946.605,"body":"least cost way of achieving a climate gold globally."},{"startTime":1947.825,"endTime":1953.165,"body":"Uh, which means you've got to, in order to calculate the least cost way of"},{"startTime":1953.165,"endTime":1956.725,"body":"doing something globally, you've gotta allocate effort to different countries."},{"startTime":1963.825,"endTime":1965.285,"body":"So there's no getting away from it."},{"startTime":1965.825,"endTime":1970.557,"body":"The modeler has somehow made some decisions that resulted in an outcome that meant, you"},{"startTime":1970.557,"endTime":1975.289,"body":"know, this sector has to do more, this sector has to do less and so"},{"startTime":1975.289,"endTime":1975.605,"body":"on."},{"startTime":1978.585,"endTime":1983.049,"body":"So some of these, some of the, and some of these estimates of cost are"},{"startTime":1983.049,"endTime":1983.645,"body":"pretty straightforward."},{"startTime":1983.965,"endTime":1988.822,"body":"I mean, the cost of re replacing coal power stations with nuclear power stations is,"},{"startTime":1988.822,"endTime":1990.765,"body":"you can, you can document that."},{"startTime":1991.475,"endTime":1996.605,"body":"It's harder to say, put a cost on the impact on nuclear proliferation, for example."},{"startTime":1997.025,"endTime":2000.845,"body":"But you know, again, you, you can, you can imagine ways of doing that."},{"startTime":2001.225,"endTime":2002.685,"body":"Others are much more subjective."},{"startTime":2009.265,"endTime":2013.557,"body":"If, if that's something we have to do, um, in order to achieve, uh, net"},{"startTime":2013.557,"endTime":2017.85,"body":"zero, or how do you balance, you know, the value of flying with the value"},{"startTime":2017.85,"endTime":2022.142,"body":"of being able to drive to work or, um, um, and, and again, because all"},{"startTime":2022.142,"endTime":2026.435,"body":"these assumptions are there deep in the sort of engine rooms of these integrated assessment"},{"startTime":2026.435,"endTime":2030.727,"body":"models, it's very difficult to take the output of one of these models and turn"},{"startTime":2030.727,"endTime":2035.02,"body":"around to a voter and say, well, this is what we gotta do, because that's"},{"startTime":2035.02,"endTime":2036.165,"body":"what the model says."},{"startTime":2037.425,"endTime":2040.92,"body":"Uh, you know, we need to do a much better job of explaining why we"},{"startTime":2040.92,"endTime":2044.415,"body":"need to do what we know and not just re relying on these scenarios and"},{"startTime":2044.415,"endTime":2047.445,"body":"saying, well, you know, we have to do this because that's the scenario."},{"startTime":2050.185,"endTime":2057.59,"body":"Um, I mean, the, the, the, the, we need, we need, you know, we need"},{"startTime":2057.59,"endTime":2059.565,"body":"to change the conversation."},{"startTime":2060.025,"endTime":2065.475,"body":"Um, we need to change the conversation away from this negative, um, argument about how"},{"startTime":2065.475,"endTime":2070.926,"body":"much harm can you still, how much harm are you allowed to still cause to"},{"startTime":2070.926,"endTime":2076.376,"body":"a positive argument about if you've got the capacity, how do we fix the problem"},{"startTime":2076.376,"endTime":2079.284,"body":"and who has the duty to fix it?"},{"startTime":2079.844,"endTime":2081.925,"body":"I think that's the big transition to debate."},{"startTime":2085.764,"endTime":2087.965,"body":"I always try to be positive in these, in these lectures."},{"startTime":2103.185,"endTime":2105.005,"body":"And who's got the capacity to fix it?"},{"startTime":2105.385,"endTime":2110.205,"body":"And how do we put policies in place to fix it as quickly as possible?"},{"startTime":2121.825,"endTime":2124.085,"body":"So some things are pretty straightforward."},{"startTime":2131.715,"endTime":2133.685,"body":"Okay, we stop using coal."},{"startTime":2134.465,"endTime":2140.565,"body":"That's a pretty simple message, um, that is easy to communicate."},{"startTime":2141.065,"endTime":2145.956,"body":"And so therefore, if somebody's working in the coal industry, that's not really consistent with"},{"startTime":2145.956,"endTime":2148.565,"body":"meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement."},{"startTime":2148.705,"endTime":2154.605,"body":"So that's, that's something which can be sort of straightforwardly explained to anybody."},{"startTime":2155.195,"endTime":2159.245,"body":"There's many other reasons why we need to wind down our global, there's, there's so"},{"startTime":2159.245,"endTime":2162.485,"body":"many other harms coal does as well as, um, affecting the climate."},{"startTime":2162.585,"endTime":2166.553,"body":"But it just, it, and the reason, by the way that we have this drop"},{"startTime":2166.553,"endTime":2170.522,"body":"off of coal in these scenarios, of course, these scenarios are looking for least cost"},{"startTime":2170.522,"endTime":2171.845,"body":"pathways to achieve net zeros."},{"startTime":2182.625,"endTime":2184.725,"body":"So it just doesn't make any sense to use it anymore."},{"startTime":2184.865,"endTime":2187.965,"body":"So the argument for phasing out coal is overwhelming."},{"startTime":2193.505,"endTime":2197.665,"body":"We do reduce the amount of oil we produce, um, and use, but it down"},{"startTime":2197.665,"endTime":2199.885,"body":"by about, you know, two thirds or so."},{"startTime":2200.825,"endTime":2205.397,"body":"Um, and then, and you know, and then there's a big spread, you know, anywhere"},{"startTime":2205.397,"endTime":2208.445,"body":"from, um, close to zero to about only about half."},{"startTime":2213.385,"endTime":2218.14,"body":"We have some scenarios in which gas, even climbs gas use even climbs, um, in,"},{"startTime":2218.14,"endTime":2219.725,"body":"uh, these net zero scenarios."},{"startTime":2219.725,"endTime":2225.803,"body":"And of course, the way in which those are net zero scenarios is that the"},{"startTime":2225.803,"endTime":2231.881,"body":"remaining use of fossil fuels, all of the fossil fuel use that's happening after 2050"},{"startTime":2231.881,"endTime":2237.959,"body":"is fully compensated for by capture of the carbon dioxide that's generated and injection back"},{"startTime":2237.959,"endTime":2238.365,"body":"underground."},{"startTime":2240.065,"endTime":2246.38,"body":"So when we see, so just bearing in mind that picture and the, and the"},{"startTime":2246.38,"endTime":2252.695,"body":"enormous spread of, um, uh, of, of the possible futures for the global gas industry,"},{"startTime":2252.695,"endTime":2259.01,"body":"we have to ask ourselves when we hear news like this one, a very important"},{"startTime":2259.01,"endTime":2265.325,"body":"climate justice case in the past few years, in which a court in the Netherlands,"},{"startTime":2265.325,"endTime":2271.64,"body":"so these are the lawyers celebrating, um, following a court decision in the Netherlands requiring"},{"startTime":2271.64,"endTime":2277.955,"body":"shell to reduce the total amount of carbon dioxide generated by both its activities and"},{"startTime":2277.955,"endTime":2282.165,"body":"the products itself by 45% relative to 20, uh, 10."},{"startTime":2286.025,"endTime":2287.485,"body":"It wasn't given any options on this."},{"startTime":2293.345,"endTime":2299.229,"body":"Now, the difficulty with this is, and it's needless to say, shall are appealing, and"},{"startTime":2299.229,"endTime":2305.114,"body":"the difficulty with this decision by the court is that Shells counterargument is, and they"},{"startTime":2305.114,"endTime":2310.998,"body":"weaken their own argument by not, not being very coherent either, but the argue, the"},{"startTime":2310.998,"endTime":2316.883,"body":"counterargument they were making was they wanted to be measured by the carbon intensity of"},{"startTime":2316.883,"endTime":2318.845,"body":"the products they sold, sold."},{"startTime":2318.945,"endTime":2324.955,"body":"So they were, they were looking to, to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide generated"},{"startTime":2324.955,"endTime":2330.965,"body":"per, um, per liter of petrol sold or per, um, per BTU of gas sold."},{"startTime":2331.465,"endTime":2332.885,"body":"Um, that was their preferred metric."},{"startTime":2348.025,"endTime":2352.542,"body":"But you can see, you know, shell, um, an oil and gas pr more and"},{"startTime":2352.542,"endTime":2357.059,"body":"more a gas company, um, could easily point to this and say, but the scenarios"},{"startTime":2357.059,"endTime":2358.565,"body":"are all over the place."},{"startTime":2358.705,"endTime":2363.842,"body":"You know, why, why, why does the courts have any right to say this is"},{"startTime":2363.842,"endTime":2368.98,"body":"the one that's relevant to this company, um, when that company's, uh, oil and gas"},{"startTime":2368.98,"endTime":2372.405,"body":"production is only a few percent of the world's total."},{"startTime":2385.705,"endTime":2386.845,"body":"So it's gonna continue."},{"startTime":2387.545,"endTime":2393.989,"body":"Um, but the, the, the, the difficulty with this is that, um, if we, if"},{"startTime":2393.989,"endTime":2400.433,"body":"these cases start to succeed, um, the net result, I mean, shell have already moved"},{"startTime":2400.433,"endTime":2406.877,"body":"their headquarters to London because of, because they, one of the reasons they say it's"},{"startTime":2406.877,"endTime":2409.885,"body":"'cause they, they're grumpy about this case."},{"startTime":2410.165,"endTime":2412.245,"body":"I dunno if that was a part of the, uh, part of the argument."},{"startTime":2412.665,"endTime":2417.691,"body":"Um, but, um, uh, but you know, one, one of the potential consequences of these"},{"startTime":2417.691,"endTime":2422.717,"body":"cases start to succeed is that we will push oil and gas production ever more"},{"startTime":2422.717,"endTime":2427.743,"body":"into companies that are just immune from litigation companies like Gas Prom or Aramco, or,"},{"startTime":2427.743,"endTime":2431.765,"body":"you know, where there's just no point in trying to sue them."},{"startTime":2450.425,"endTime":2457.73,"body":"So, groups wanting to end fuel poverty, unite, wanting no ban without a plan, and"},{"startTime":2457.73,"endTime":2460.165,"body":"the just stop oil campaigners."},{"startTime":2469.715,"endTime":2473.885,"body":"Because I would argue that, and justice of course cuts both ways."},{"startTime":2474.365,"endTime":2479.675,"body":"Remember, I, 'cause I would argue that the greatest injustice, the greatest climate injustice of"},{"startTime":2479.675,"endTime":2484.986,"body":"all is the fact that we have the most profitable industry the world has ever"},{"startTime":2484.986,"endTime":2490.296,"body":"known by far, that is making its money, selling a product that's causing a very"},{"startTime":2490.296,"endTime":2491.005,"body":"serious problem."},{"startTime":2491.665,"endTime":2494.765,"body":"And nobody is even asking them to fix it."},{"startTime":2496.225,"endTime":2499.728,"body":"In fact, they seem to have got away with the fact that, oh yeah, they'll"},{"startTime":2499.728,"endTime":2502.765,"body":"fix the problem, but only when the taxpayer pays them to clean up."},{"startTime":2505.325,"endTime":2506.805,"body":"Well, it's kind of what Thames Water are trying to do."},{"startTime":2507.505,"endTime":2513.671,"body":"Um, but um, and, and, and I think we need to be, and and ironically"},{"startTime":2513.671,"endTime":2518.605,"body":"the so many people in the climate debate are perpetuating this situation."},{"startTime":2519.465,"endTime":2522.833,"body":"The, the, the, the sort of anti les campaigner on the one hand is they"},{"startTime":2522.833,"endTime":2524.405,"body":"think they're defending their right to drive."},{"startTime":2529.025,"endTime":2533.621,"body":"Um, the, the the just stop oil protestor who's glued to the gantry, they think"},{"startTime":2533.621,"endTime":2538.218,"body":"they're, they, they think they're sort of bringing forward the demise of the fossil fuel"},{"startTime":2538.218,"endTime":2538.525,"body":"industry."},{"startTime":2538.525,"endTime":2542.975,"body":"They probably don't know that the fossil fuel industry executives that I've talked to are"},{"startTime":2542.975,"endTime":2545.645,"body":"perfectly comfortable with people saying phase out fossil fuels."},{"startTime":2546.185,"endTime":2547.005,"body":"Um, they say, that's fine."},{"startTime":2547.015,"endTime":2550.205,"body":"We'll, we'll go with fa we'll, we'll, we'll just sell 'em in the meantime."},{"startTime":2550.605,"endTime":2551.685,"body":"Apparently they're gonna be phased out."},{"startTime":2550.605,"endTime":2551.685,"body":"Apparently they're gonna be phased out."},{"startTime":2551.905,"endTime":2553.805,"body":"You know, they're, they're, they're fine with that message."},{"startTime":2551.905,"endTime":2553.805,"body":"You know, they're, they're, they're fine with that message."},{"startTime":2554.625,"endTime":2560.228,"body":"Um, and um, indeed I've even had them tell me to my face, um, oh,"},{"startTime":2560.228,"endTime":2565.831,"body":"we can't invest in carbon capture because the world's decided to transition away from fossil"},{"startTime":2565.831,"endTime":2566.205,"body":"fuels."},{"startTime":2554.625,"endTime":2560.228,"body":"Um, and um, indeed I've even had them tell me to my face, um, oh,"},{"startTime":2560.228,"endTime":2565.831,"body":"we can't invest in carbon capture because the world's decided to transition away from fossil"},{"startTime":2565.831,"endTime":2566.205,"body":"fuels."},{"startTime":2566.505,"endTime":2570.549,"body":"So it would be too risky for us to invest in that knowing full well"},{"startTime":2570.549,"endTime":2574.325,"body":"they're investing in oil and gas fields that won't be producing until the 2040s."},{"startTime":2566.505,"endTime":2570.549,"body":"So it would be too risky for us to invest in that knowing full well"},{"startTime":2570.549,"endTime":2574.325,"body":"they're investing in oil and gas fields that won't be producing until the 2040s."},{"startTime":2575.265,"endTime":2580.494,"body":"So we're just giving them an excuse to carry on doing nothing when we could"},{"startTime":2580.494,"endTime":2585.724,"body":"be requiring them to get on with actually doing something which is stopping the product"},{"startTime":2585.724,"endTime":2588.165,"body":"they sell from causing further global warming."},{"startTime":2575.265,"endTime":2580.494,"body":"So we're just giving them an excuse to carry on doing nothing when we could"},{"startTime":2580.494,"endTime":2585.724,"body":"be requiring them to get on with actually doing something which is stopping the product"},{"startTime":2585.724,"endTime":2588.165,"body":"they sell from causing further global warming."},{"startTime":2588.485,"endTime":2589.925,"body":"'cause they absolutely know how to do it."},{"startTime":2588.485,"endTime":2589.925,"body":"'cause they absolutely know how to do it."},{"startTime":2607.105,"endTime":2610.605,"body":"And this is, you know, by in effect, we've already decided this."},{"startTime":2621.945,"endTime":2623.525,"body":"And yet nobody's put it that way."},{"startTime":2621.945,"endTime":2623.525,"body":"And yet nobody's put it that way."},{"startTime":2624.545,"endTime":2626.445,"body":"And 2050 is only 25 years away."},{"startTime":2624.545,"endTime":2626.445,"body":"And 2050 is only 25 years away."},{"startTime":2627.425,"endTime":2632.24,"body":"So any company whose main line of business is selling products that cause global warming"},{"startTime":2632.24,"endTime":2637.055,"body":"directly should have filed a plan already with the Department of Energy and natural and,"},{"startTime":2637.055,"endTime":2641.87,"body":"and net zero department energy security and net zero, sorry, it's bit of a math,"},{"startTime":2641.87,"endTime":2646.685,"body":"um, saying, how are they gonna stop the product they sell from causing global warming?"},{"startTime":2627.425,"endTime":2632.24,"body":"So any company whose main line of business is selling products that cause global warming"},{"startTime":2632.24,"endTime":2637.055,"body":"directly should have filed a plan already with the Department of Energy and natural and,"},{"startTime":2637.055,"endTime":2641.87,"body":"and net zero department energy security and net zero, sorry, it's bit of a math,"},{"startTime":2641.87,"endTime":2646.685,"body":"um, saying, how are they gonna stop the product they sell from causing global warming?"},{"startTime":2652.445,"endTime":2657.306,"body":"Which is kind of the kind of plans that's the level of, that's the level"},{"startTime":2657.306,"endTime":2659.575,"body":"of ridiculousness of some of their plans."},{"startTime":2652.445,"endTime":2657.306,"body":"Which is kind of the kind of plans that's the level of, that's the level"},{"startTime":2657.306,"endTime":2659.575,"body":"of ridiculousness of some of their plans."},{"startTime":2659.955,"endTime":2663.165,"body":"Uh, at the moment they're just saying, oh yeah, we're just gonna carry on selling"},{"startTime":2663.165,"endTime":2666.375,"body":"it in line with society is the i the the line they like to use?"},{"startTime":2670.595,"endTime":2672.245,"body":"But in the meantime, we're just gonna carry on."},{"startTime":2683.385,"endTime":2687.619,"body":"How, and they're not making any effort to explain how they're gonna get from 2030s"},{"startTime":2687.619,"endTime":2690.725,"body":"to the 25th and nobody's asking them to, which is bizarre."},{"startTime":2713.385,"endTime":2718.203,"body":"Um, that was, that was explicitly in, in, in that somebody was just taking the"},{"startTime":2718.203,"endTime":2718.525,"body":"mate."},{"startTime":2720.225,"endTime":2727.765,"body":"Um, which brings us back to what do we do about North Sea licenses?"},{"startTime":2728.945,"endTime":2731.485,"body":"So what constructively could labor do?"},{"startTime":2761.745,"endTime":2766.525,"body":"It would create that world leading carbon capture and storage industry overnight."},{"startTime":2766.945,"endTime":2770.276,"body":"The government ministers keep telling us we're gonna have and then tell us we have"},{"startTime":2770.276,"endTime":2771.165,"body":"to pay for it."},{"startTime":2772.345,"endTime":2775.085,"body":"No, the industry's making plenty of money."},{"startTime":2777.385,"endTime":2778.805,"body":"And of course, they'll immediately scream."},{"startTime":2778.805,"endTime":2782.089,"body":"And the daily mail will no doubt go nuts over the fact that this'll make"},{"startTime":2782.089,"endTime":2782.965,"body":"fossil fuels more expensive."},{"startTime":2784.085,"endTime":2785.965,"body":"A 10% take back requirement."},{"startTime":2786.145,"endTime":2790.249,"body":"So requirements on the industry to get rid of 10% of the carbon dioxide generated"},{"startTime":2790.249,"endTime":2794.354,"body":"by the products sells, which is where we need to be by the early 2030s,"},{"startTime":2794.354,"endTime":2798.458,"body":"if we're gonna be on track for a hundred percent by 2050, would add n"},{"startTime":2798.458,"endTime":2802.563,"body":"0.1 penny to the cost of a kilowatt hour of natural gas, which is less"},{"startTime":2802.563,"endTime":2804.205,"body":"than you save by shopping around."},{"startTime":2805.145,"endTime":2809.928,"body":"So, and, and by the way, there's no need for them to pass all that"},{"startTime":2809.928,"endTime":2810.885,"body":"cost on anyway."},{"startTime":2810.885,"endTime":2812.405,"body":"They're making plenty of money."},{"startTime":2821.425,"endTime":2825.407,"body":"Of course, in the long term, if you require the fossil fuel companies to start"},{"startTime":2825.407,"endTime":2829.125,"body":"the process off from causing global warming, then fossil fuels will get more expensive."},{"startTime":2829.235,"endTime":2830.765,"body":"There's absolutely no getting away from it."},{"startTime":2871.445,"endTime":2876.275,"body":"Um, and, and the point is, we, the, the government is clearly sensitive to the"},{"startTime":2876.275,"endTime":2881.105,"body":"fact that people probably care more about energy security than they care about net zero."},{"startTime":2896.325,"endTime":2900.552,"body":"They're to make sure that we actually having decided that fossil fuels are gonna be"},{"startTime":2900.552,"endTime":2903.935,"body":"made safe for the planet and therefore they're gonna get more expensive."},{"startTime":2904.075,"endTime":2908.97,"body":"We better invest in some alternatives because it's, it's, it's insecure to continue relying exclusively"},{"startTime":2908.97,"endTime":2911.255,"body":"on them at the level we do."},{"startTime":2923.645,"endTime":2927.763,"body":"Because as I say, the, the cost of the, the price of fossil fuels is"},{"startTime":2927.763,"endTime":2931.882,"body":"set by what the market will bear, not what they, not by what they, their"},{"startTime":2931.882,"endTime":2933.255,"body":"cost to produce and deliver."},{"startTime":2982.945,"endTime":2988.159,"body":"Um, uh, it we could, we could, we could, uh, we could, we could, um,"},{"startTime":2988.159,"endTime":2990.245,"body":"club together to achieve that outcome."},{"startTime":2991.795,"endTime":2994.518,"body":"Lots of people insist to me that, oh, it's not that simple miles, it's much"},{"startTime":2994.518,"endTime":2995.245,"body":"more complicated than that."},{"startTime":2995.245,"endTime":2999.325,"body":"It's not really, we just need to stop fossil fuels from causing global warming."},{"startTime":3019.025,"endTime":3020.645,"body":"So drive electric instead."},{"startTime":3021.865,"endTime":3027.774,"body":"Um, if we wrote, refocus the conversation on simple principles like this principle of producer"},{"startTime":3027.774,"endTime":3033.683,"body":"responsibility for fossil fuels, um, we might be able to diffuse these arguments from becoming"},{"startTime":3033.683,"endTime":3038.805,"body":"as toxic as they could, um, um, over, over the next 20 years."},{"startTime":3052.895,"endTime":3053.325,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3057.065,"endTime":3063.625,"body":"The, uh, and one's asked, uh, could, could cbam in the UK in the EU"},{"startTime":3063.625,"endTime":3070.186,"body":"stimulates a program of global taxes, which would then, uh, even out and, and, uh,"},{"startTime":3070.186,"endTime":3073.685,"body":"responsibility around the world taken for carbon emissions."},{"startTime":3074.435,"endTime":3076.245,"body":"Well, I mean, that's the idea."},{"startTime":3077.265,"endTime":3084.32,"body":"Um, but the, the difficulty is that it's essentially the EU and UK taking it"},{"startTime":3084.32,"endTime":3089.965,"body":"upon themselves to tell Namibia, um, what carbon tax it should set."},{"startTime":3090.665,"endTime":3094.573,"body":"Um, and I suspect the government and or certainly the, if looking at that, um,"},{"startTime":3094.573,"endTime":3098.481,"body":"hard talk interview with the president of Guyana, I think you're gonna get some pretty,"},{"startTime":3098.481,"endTime":3100.045,"body":"um, pretty hard pushback on that."},{"startTime":3100.505,"endTime":3105.182,"body":"Um, so the, the, the difficulty with that is that somebody's decided this is the"},{"startTime":3105.182,"endTime":3107.365,"body":"right level to set the carbon tax."},{"startTime":3108.065,"endTime":3109.765,"body":"Um, and that's a subjective decision."},{"startTime":3109.915,"endTime":3115.177,"body":"There's, there's so many sort of imponderables in, in what is that right level, um,"},{"startTime":3115.177,"endTime":3118.685,"body":"that it's very hard to justify one level over another."},{"startTime":3126.515,"endTime":3130.223,"body":"Some countries will have much more, uh, will get onto into all this sort of"},{"startTime":3130.223,"endTime":3130.965,"body":"stuff next year."},{"startTime":3131.345,"endTime":3134.565,"body":"Um, but some countries will have much more elastic emissions than others."},{"startTime":3135.065,"endTime":3138.44,"body":"Um, uh, so I don't wanna put you off the, I've just put you off"},{"startTime":3138.44,"endTime":3139.565,"body":"next year's lectures, haven't you?"},{"startTime":3142.205,"endTime":3143.925,"body":"Economists can't wait, I'm sure."},{"startTime":3153.945,"endTime":3157.882,"body":"Um, and as I said, you know, if you have to defend your policy by"},{"startTime":3157.882,"endTime":3160.245,"body":"saying it's not neocolonialist, you've already got a problem."},{"startTime":3160.725,"endTime":3165.725,"body":"\u003claugh\u003e."},{"startTime":3161.225,"endTime":3165.098,"body":"Um, I just wanted to ask, in terms of SBTI brought out sort of, they"},{"startTime":3165.098,"endTime":3168.972,"body":"changed their methodology to include carbon offsetting, and then there was huge pushback and then"},{"startTime":3168.972,"endTime":3170.005,"body":"they backtracked on that."},{"startTime":3170.755,"endTime":3171.925,"body":"What are your thoughts on that?"},{"startTime":3175.945,"endTime":3180.162,"body":"Um, it's a huge topic, um, and, um, it's, uh, but the, the fact, I"},{"startTime":3180.162,"endTime":3184.379,"body":"mean, it, it, it's, can I just sort of par that one with, it's really"},{"startTime":3184.379,"endTime":3188.596,"body":"interesting that conversation's happening because on the one hand, at a positive thing, it shows"},{"startTime":3188.596,"endTime":3190.565,"body":"that meeting science based targets is hard."},{"startTime":3190.905,"endTime":3192.885,"body":"So companies are having to really think about it."},{"startTime":3204.225,"endTime":3206.045,"body":"If something doesn't mean mean anything, it's very cheap."},{"startTime":3219.925,"endTime":3220.405,"body":"Promise"},{"startTime":3221.065,"endTime":3224.165,"body":"You, you haven't said explicitly how this would happen."},{"startTime":3225.205,"endTime":3232.738,"body":"I think you're suggesting carbon capture and storage, um, but that, that's, that's hardly a,"},{"startTime":3232.738,"endTime":3234.245,"body":"a given thing."},{"startTime":3238.205,"endTime":3239.125,"body":"That it, it's,"},{"startTime":3253.105,"endTime":3254.885,"body":"But the scale, but just don't listen to them."},{"startTime":3254.885,"endTime":3255.445,"body":"They're wrong."},{"startTime":3255.595,"endTime":3256.725,"body":"They can do it today,"},{"startTime":3257.145,"endTime":3259.165,"body":"But the scale of it is minute at the"},{"startTime":3259.165,"endTime":3259.285,"body":"Moment."},{"startTime":3259.345,"endTime":3262.165,"body":"The scale is minute because nobody's incentivized to do it at the moment."},{"startTime":3262.865,"endTime":3266.607,"body":"The only reason anybody does carbon capture at the moment is because some government pays"},{"startTime":3266.607,"endTime":3267.605,"body":"them to do it."},{"startTime":3267.745,"endTime":3271.205,"body":"And 'cause governments haven't got unlimited pockets, they haven't done that very often."},{"startTime":3271.705,"endTime":3274.695,"body":"If the industry were people within the industry have said to my face, of course,"},{"startTime":3274.695,"endTime":3277.686,"body":"if we had to do it as a licensing condition of selling fossil fuels, we"},{"startTime":3277.686,"endTime":3278.285,"body":"just do it."},{"startTime":3278.875,"endTime":3282.23,"body":"Like, like I was, they were almost insulted that I would even think that they"},{"startTime":3282.23,"endTime":3283.125,"body":"would do anything else."},{"startTime":3283.315,"endTime":3283.605,"body":"What"},{"startTime":3284.195,"endTime":3284.605,"body":"Yeah, sure."},{"startTime":3287.945,"endTime":3289.645,"body":"For what kind of carbon?"},{"startTime":3289.655,"endTime":3290.005,"body":"Price?"},{"startTime":3290.055,"endTime":3290.405,"body":"Price?"},{"startTime":3302.805,"endTime":3306.765,"body":"That's sort of, um, 50 odd, um, pounds per per ton of CO2."},{"startTime":3307.425,"endTime":3312.05,"body":"Um, and the reason people aren't putting this carbon capture in at the moment is"},{"startTime":3312.05,"endTime":3316.675,"body":"because even when the, um, carbon price wobbles over that level, they're not confident enough"},{"startTime":3316.675,"endTime":3318.525,"body":"that it'll stay over that level."},{"startTime":3318.545,"endTime":3321.085,"body":"And these plants have to be built and they have to run for decades."},{"startTime":3328.945,"endTime":3331.605,"body":"So why bother to invest when somebody else might pay for it?"},{"startTime":3331.755,"endTime":3335.596,"body":"There's, there's, there's a whole raft of reasons why it's not happening, but they're all"},{"startTime":3335.596,"endTime":3336.365,"body":"on the policy."},{"startTime":3336.675,"endTime":3338.405,"body":"There's nothing wrong with the technology."},{"startTime":3336.675,"endTime":3338.405,"body":"There's nothing wrong with the technology."},{"startTime":3338.895,"endTime":3343.43,"body":"We've just yet to come up with a, a, a, a clear and unavoidable reason"},{"startTime":3343.43,"endTime":3345.245,"body":"why people have to do it."},{"startTime":3338.895,"endTime":3343.43,"body":"We've just yet to come up with a, a, a, a clear and unavoidable reason"},{"startTime":3343.43,"endTime":3345.245,"body":"why people have to do it."},{"startTime":3345.985,"endTime":3349.737,"body":"And, and that's why I, I would advocate a very, very simple thing that labor"},{"startTime":3349.737,"endTime":3353.49,"body":"could do, which would have a dramatic impact on the world, will be to say,"},{"startTime":3353.49,"endTime":3357.242,"body":"if you want to dig it up, if you wanna import it into Britain, you've"},{"startTime":3357.242,"endTime":3360.245,"body":"gotta start putting away the CO2 now just get on with it."},{"startTime":3345.985,"endTime":3349.737,"body":"And, and that's why I, I would advocate a very, very simple thing that labor"},{"startTime":3349.737,"endTime":3353.49,"body":"could do, which would have a dramatic impact on the world, will be to say,"},{"startTime":3353.49,"endTime":3357.242,"body":"if you want to dig it up, if you wanna import it into Britain, you've"},{"startTime":3357.242,"endTime":3360.245,"body":"gotta start putting away the CO2 now just get on with it."},{"startTime":3360.245,"endTime":3361.685,"body":"We're not gonna give you any more subsidies."},{"startTime":3362.505,"endTime":3365.867,"body":"And, and if they were to do that, you know, you can start small, you"},{"startTime":3365.867,"endTime":3369.005,"body":"know, only one or 2% right away, that would immediately transform the CS industry."},{"startTime":3362.505,"endTime":3365.867,"body":"And, and if they were to do that, you know, you can start small, you"},{"startTime":3365.867,"endTime":3369.005,"body":"know, only one or 2% right away, that would immediately transform the CS industry."},{"startTime":3371.145,"endTime":3375.541,"body":"So just to sort of one or 2% requirement would, would, you know, crank it"},{"startTime":3375.541,"endTime":3379.938,"body":"up immediately and, you know, 10% by the early 2030s would be perfectly feasible for"},{"startTime":3379.938,"endTime":3380.525,"body":"the industry."},{"startTime":3371.145,"endTime":3375.541,"body":"So just to sort of one or 2% requirement would, would, you know, crank it"},{"startTime":3375.541,"endTime":3379.938,"body":"up immediately and, you know, 10% by the early 2030s would be perfectly feasible for"},{"startTime":3379.938,"endTime":3380.525,"body":"the industry."},{"startTime":3380.725,"endTime":3383.365,"body":"I mean, the industry themselves, they say, yeah, we could, we could do this."},{"startTime":3380.725,"endTime":3383.365,"body":"I mean, the industry themselves, they say, yeah, we could, we could do this."},{"startTime":3383.625,"endTime":3385.085,"body":"But then they say there's no business case."},{"startTime":3383.625,"endTime":3385.085,"body":"But then they say there's no business case."},{"startTime":3388.035,"endTime":3390.565,"body":"There's no stronger business case than the license to operate."},{"startTime":3388.035,"endTime":3390.565,"body":"There's no stronger business case than the license to operate."},{"startTime":3396.025,"endTime":3400.289,"body":"Um, you know, people like P Colby and Alex Jones and generally, do you think"},{"startTime":3400.289,"endTime":3404.553,"body":"they generally believe what they say because they generally take, or is it tribal politics"},{"startTime":3404.553,"endTime":3408.817,"body":"because they generally take the opposition view on everything, the anti-vax, some of them even"},{"startTime":3408.817,"endTime":3413.082,"body":"don't even believe that earth is round and whatever, you know, any, whatever you say,"},{"startTime":3413.082,"endTime":3415.925,"body":"they say the opposite because that's what their tribe says."},{"startTime":3396.025,"endTime":3400.289,"body":"Um, you know, people like P Colby and Alex Jones and generally, do you think"},{"startTime":3400.289,"endTime":3404.553,"body":"they generally believe what they say because they generally take, or is it tribal politics"},{"startTime":3404.553,"endTime":3408.817,"body":"because they generally take the opposition view on everything, the anti-vax, some of them even"},{"startTime":3408.817,"endTime":3413.082,"body":"don't even believe that earth is round and whatever, you know, any, whatever you say,"},{"startTime":3413.082,"endTime":3415.925,"body":"they say the opposite because that's what their tribe says."},{"startTime":3418.485,"endTime":3420.885,"body":"They actually believe that, um, climate change is not real?"},{"startTime":3418.485,"endTime":3420.885,"body":"They actually believe that, um, climate change is not real?"},{"startTime":3435.865,"endTime":3438.685,"body":"So we may as well just carry on emitting for another few decades."},{"startTime":3435.865,"endTime":3438.685,"body":"So we may as well just carry on emitting for another few decades."},{"startTime":3438.905,"endTime":3443.285,"body":"That's sort of more the position, uh, people are, are, are taking."},{"startTime":3438.905,"endTime":3443.285,"body":"That's sort of more the position, uh, people are, are, are taking."},{"startTime":3450.705,"endTime":3452.725,"body":"Um, I, I don't know."},{"startTime":3450.705,"endTime":3452.725,"body":"Um, I, I don't know."},{"startTime":3452.845,"endTime":3456.965,"body":"I can't really get inside their heads, but people do."},{"startTime":3452.845,"endTime":3456.965,"body":"I can't really get inside their heads, but people do."},{"startTime":3456.985,"endTime":3460.989,"body":"But, but one thing I could say very highly relevant to the topic of this"},{"startTime":3460.989,"endTime":3463.125,"body":"lecture is people do talk themselves into positions."},{"startTime":3456.985,"endTime":3460.989,"body":"But, but one thing I could say very highly relevant to the topic of this"},{"startTime":3460.989,"endTime":3463.125,"body":"lecture is people do talk themselves into positions."},{"startTime":3463.625,"endTime":3469.017,"body":"And once somebody's talked themselves into a position of, you know, holding, once somebody started"},{"startTime":3469.017,"endTime":3474.41,"body":"holding up a placard, very well suspiciously, well printed placard, I might say, um, saying"},{"startTime":3474.41,"endTime":3478.725,"body":"no net zero, it's very hard to talk them down from that."},{"startTime":3463.625,"endTime":3469.017,"body":"And once somebody's talked themselves into a position of, you know, holding, once somebody started"},{"startTime":3469.017,"endTime":3474.41,"body":"holding up a placard, very well suspiciously, well printed placard, I might say, um, saying"},{"startTime":3474.41,"endTime":3478.725,"body":"no net zero, it's very hard to talk them down from that."},{"startTime":3479.305,"endTime":3482.325,"body":"So that's why, you know, back to the theme of this lecture."},{"startTime":3479.305,"endTime":3482.325,"body":"So that's why, you know, back to the theme of this lecture."},{"startTime":3493.785,"endTime":3496.815,"body":"Um, we need, we need to sort of get ahead of it and explain to"},{"startTime":3496.815,"endTime":3499.845,"body":"people that, you know, net zero is not a threat to your way of life."},{"startTime":3493.785,"endTime":3496.815,"body":"Um, we need, we need to sort of get ahead of it and explain to"},{"startTime":3496.815,"endTime":3499.845,"body":"people that, you know, net zero is not a threat to your way of life."},{"startTime":3500.425,"endTime":3504.272,"body":"Um, you know, it's, it's something we can all get behind, which is a fossil"},{"startTime":3504.272,"endTime":3506.325,"body":"fuel industry cleaning up the mess after itself."},{"startTime":3500.425,"endTime":3504.272,"body":"Um, you know, it's, it's something we can all get behind, which is a fossil"},{"startTime":3504.272,"endTime":3506.325,"body":"fuel industry cleaning up the mess after itself."},{"startTime":3510.305,"endTime":3514.28,"body":"You know, somebody putting up a Packard saying, no, preserve the fossil, preserve the profits"},{"startTime":3514.28,"endTime":3515.605,"body":"of the fossil fuel industry."},{"startTime":3516.575,"endTime":3517.905,"body":"Good luck with that placard."},{"startTime":3516.575,"endTime":3517.905,"body":"Good luck with that placard."},{"startTime":3519.445,"endTime":3524.798,"body":"Um, I'm, I'm afraid we've, uh, run outta time for this evening, and that one"},{"startTime":3524.798,"endTime":3530.151,"body":"of the things we've been able to demonstrate comprehensively, once again, is actually the science"},{"startTime":3530.151,"endTime":3535.505,"body":"of climate change is always surpassed by the, the, the human issues, uh, around it."},{"startTime":3535.525,"endTime":3540.377,"body":"And the, uh, one of the reasons the debate is so vigorous is because people"},{"startTime":3540.377,"endTime":3541.025,"body":"are difficult."},{"startTime":3541.725,"endTime":3544.705,"body":"Uh, and, uh, they, we should never lose sight of that."},{"startTime":3545.165,"endTime":3547.745,"body":"Um, but ladies and gentlemen, it's been a fascinating evening."},{"startTime":3552.205,"endTime":3556.465,"body":"The, uh, Frank Jackson Foundation, professor of the Environment, professor Miles Allen."},{"startTime":3557.115,"endTime":3557.585,"body":"Thank you."}]}