{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":5.285,"endTime":11.245,"body":"I want to begin with a question put by the American philosopher David und."},{"startTime":11.745,"endTime":18.547,"body":"So he asks, in life and death medical decisions what could be stupider than holding"},{"startTime":18.547,"endTime":25.35,"body":"a vote, or you might consider how you'd feel if you found yourself on an"},{"startTime":25.35,"endTime":28.525,"body":"airplane, asked to vote in this scenario."},{"startTime":29.465,"endTime":34.652,"body":"So for those who can't read it, a passenger stands up and says, these SM"},{"startTime":34.652,"endTime":37.765,"body":"pilots have lost touch with regular passengers like us."},{"startTime":38.505,"endTime":40.445,"body":"Who thinks I should fly the plane?"},{"startTime":42.175,"endTime":51.191,"body":"So these examples, captains and doctors, are pretty compelling illustrations of a case for giving"},{"startTime":51.191,"endTime":52.995,"body":"power to experts."},{"startTime":54.205,"endTime":60.395,"body":"Surely a medical doctor is the only person who should take lifesaving decisions in an"},{"startTime":60.395,"endTime":66.586,"body":"emergency, and a qualified pilot is the only person whom you'd want in the cockpit"},{"startTime":66.586,"endTime":67.825,"body":"of your plane."},{"startTime":68.885,"endTime":75.873,"body":"And it's striking that these were the favorite examples, not just for modern philosophers and"},{"startTime":75.873,"endTime":81.465,"body":"cartoonists, but also for the ancient Greek philosopher philosophers, Socrates and Aristotle."},{"startTime":81.725,"endTime":87.385,"body":"Though of course, they were thinking about ship captains, not about airplane pilots."},{"startTime":89.745,"endTime":96.786,"body":"But if we broaden out the scope and the complexity, when we think about an"},{"startTime":96.786,"endTime":103.827,"body":"emergency, for example, to the larger scope of the COVID-19 pandemic, the question of the"},{"startTime":103.827,"endTime":110.868,"body":"role of a medical doctor, for example, compared to other experts and compared to lay"},{"startTime":110.868,"endTime":113.685,"body":"people, starts to appear more complicated."},{"startTime":114.905,"endTime":121.743,"body":"So how should we compare the expertise of the doctor without of the teacher in"},{"startTime":121.743,"endTime":128.582,"body":"deciding the length of school closures, for example, or of public health experts versus members"},{"startTime":128.582,"endTime":134.965,"body":"of parliament in weighing dangers for essential workers that against those for everyone else."},{"startTime":136.925,"endTime":142.512,"body":"So you can start to see that there are quite a lot of questions in"},{"startTime":142.512,"endTime":145.865,"body":"the space of this lecture on experts and politics."},{"startTime":147.235,"endTime":154.697,"body":"One problem is to know which experts to trust and take into an extreme, though"},{"startTime":154.697,"endTime":162.16,"body":"that can lead to skepticism against trusting any experts at all as the then cabinet"},{"startTime":162.16,"endTime":169.125,"body":"minister Michael Gove famously opined in 2016, prior to the British referendum on Brexit."},{"startTime":169.185,"endTime":172.845,"body":"And of course, this has become a very well known quotation."},{"startTime":173.745,"endTime":178.987,"body":"Um, so first we have the, uh, captains and doctors, but then we have the"},{"startTime":178.987,"endTime":180.385,"body":"quotation from Michael Gove."},{"startTime":180.805,"endTime":188.477,"body":"People in this country have had enough of experts, and it might seem that expertise"},{"startTime":188.477,"endTime":191.035,"body":"is intention with democracy anyway."},{"startTime":192.005,"endTime":198.387,"body":"After all, isn't the point of democracy that every voter should have an equal say,"},{"startTime":198.387,"endTime":204.769,"body":"and if no one's opinion is automatically entitled to more weight than that of anyone"},{"startTime":204.769,"endTime":205.195,"body":"else?"},{"startTime":207.295,"endTime":213.438,"body":"But again, we have that opposite problem where I started, which is the temptation to"},{"startTime":213.438,"endTime":216.715,"body":"think that perhaps we should seed democratic judgment."},{"startTime":217.015,"endTime":221.955,"body":"We should give it up to experts who might be better placed to exercise it."},{"startTime":222.815,"endTime":224.445,"body":"After all, who do we want?"},{"startTime":224.765,"endTime":230.885,"body":"Steering what Plato and the Republic memorably depicted as the ship of state."},{"startTime":231.225,"endTime":237.476,"body":"And here's a more up to date version of a ship of state, but in"},{"startTime":237.476,"endTime":243.727,"body":"the words that Plato attributed to Socrates in the Republic, he wrote, imagine that something"},{"startTime":243.727,"endTime":246.645,"body":"like the following happens on a ship."},{"startTime":247.935,"endTime":254.112,"body":"The sailors are quarreling with one another about steering the ship, each of them thinking"},{"startTime":254.112,"endTime":256.995,"body":"that he should be the true captain."},{"startTime":257.855,"endTime":264.211,"body":"And then the quotation goes on, even though he's never learned the art of navigation,"},{"startTime":264.211,"endTime":264.635,"body":"right?"},{"startTime":264.775,"endTime":267.635,"body":"So we see the two sides of the problem, right?"},{"startTime":267.695,"endTime":273.995,"body":"In one side we see the pull of the thought that experts have stronger insight,"},{"startTime":273.995,"endTime":280.295,"body":"better reason sometimes to decide, but we also see the pull of the problem that"},{"startTime":280.295,"endTime":283.235,"body":"that seems intention with our democratic principles."},{"startTime":284.585,"endTime":289.856,"body":"Indeed, being a master of an art of navigation doesn't give you the right to"},{"startTime":289.856,"endTime":291.965,"body":"decide where the ship should go."},{"startTime":293.265,"endTime":298.733,"body":"So captains might understand where it's possible for a ship to go, where they risk"},{"startTime":298.733,"endTime":304.202,"body":"beaching on the rocks, where it's more likely to be smooth sailing, but that knowledge"},{"startTime":304.202,"endTime":306.755,"body":"doesn't settle the question of a destination."},{"startTime":307.255,"endTime":310.675,"body":"So that's where democratic politics would come in."},{"startTime":313.225,"endTime":319.805,"body":"So there are these two extremes then that threaten the place of experts in politics."},{"startTime":320.855,"endTime":327.41,"body":"At one extreme, we have corrosive skepticism, even leading to conspiracy theories that reject the"},{"startTime":327.41,"endTime":329.595,"body":"role of experts at all."},{"startTime":331.095,"endTime":338.184,"body":"And on the even wall, we recognize that there's a real need for educated skepticism"},{"startTime":338.184,"endTime":340.075,"body":"for testing expert claims."},{"startTime":341.425,"endTime":346.837,"body":"And of course, I'm giving this lecture in the week following the submission of the"},{"startTime":346.837,"endTime":350.445,"body":"report of the infected blood inquiry to the UK Parliament."},{"startTime":350.865,"endTime":356.815,"body":"And so this is a stark reminder of the need to sometimes challenge experts as"},{"startTime":356.815,"endTime":358.005,"body":"the report states."},{"startTime":358.505,"endTime":364.805,"body":"And I quote, the picture that emerges overall from the findings in this report is"},{"startTime":364.805,"endTime":371.105,"body":"one in which people have been failed, not once, but repeatedly by their doctors, by"},{"startTime":371.105,"endTime":377.405,"body":"the bodies NHS and other responsible for the safety of their treatment and by their"},{"startTime":377.405,"endTime":379.085,"body":"governments end of quotation."},{"startTime":379.785,"endTime":386.93,"body":"So experts can get it wrong too often with devastating consequences, but at the other"},{"startTime":386.93,"endTime":394.075,"body":"extreme, we can have excessive deference to experts and that could undermine democratic decision making"},{"startTime":394.075,"endTime":400.745,"body":"and recognition of the many different factors that have to feature in a decision."},{"startTime":403.485,"endTime":406.945,"body":"So how can we find a middle ground?"},{"startTime":408.445,"endTime":413.687,"body":"So you won't be surprised to know that my approach is going to be to"},{"startTime":413.687,"endTime":415.785,"body":"turn back to the ancient Greeks."},{"startTime":415.885,"endTime":419.201,"body":"And of course, you won't be surprised to know that because it's in the subtitle"},{"startTime":419.201,"endTime":419.865,"body":"of the lecture."},{"startTime":421.485,"endTime":427.844,"body":"But, um, some, some of you may remember in fact that in the first lecture"},{"startTime":427.844,"endTime":434.203,"body":"that I gave this academic year, I argued that the role of political office is"},{"startTime":434.203,"endTime":440.562,"body":"fundamentally common in some key respects between ancient Greece and modern democracies, so that we"},{"startTime":440.562,"endTime":446.921,"body":"can learn some things for how to think about challenges today by looking back to"},{"startTime":446.921,"endTime":447.345,"body":"Greece."},{"startTime":448.665,"endTime":454.89,"body":"And so, too, I wanna suggest tonight the problem of experts and politics is as"},{"startTime":454.89,"endTime":456.965,"body":"ancient as it is modern."},{"startTime":457.945,"endTime":464.974,"body":"So as I've already begun to illustrate, Socrates and Aristotle both reflected on expertise, I've"},{"startTime":464.974,"endTime":472.004,"body":"mentioned doctors and captains, they also reflected extensively on the role of generals, for example,"},{"startTime":472.004,"endTime":478.565,"body":"experts in military affairs who advised ancient assemblies on decisions about war and peace."},{"startTime":479.505,"endTime":487.061,"body":"And today we grapple with climate scientists advising governments through the intergovernmental panel on climate"},{"startTime":487.061,"endTime":487.565,"body":"change."},{"startTime":488.185,"endTime":493.816,"body":"And indeed, um, as was mentioned, climate change will be the topic of my final"},{"startTime":493.816,"endTime":496.445,"body":"lecture this academic year on 13 June."},{"startTime":498.065,"endTime":504.717,"body":"But for tonight, I want to look more generally at natural scientists and social scientists"},{"startTime":504.717,"endTime":505.605,"body":"as experts."},{"startTime":506.185,"endTime":513.174,"body":"And so we'll explore two dimensions of the problem of experts in politics, drawing on"},{"startTime":513.174,"endTime":520.164,"body":"Socrates and Aristotle, that Socrates on the left and Aristotle on the right for guidance."},{"startTime":520.664,"endTime":524.879,"body":"So I'll just give you a little bit more of a roadmap for the lecture"},{"startTime":524.879,"endTime":526.285,"body":"before, um, I dig in."},{"startTime":528.695,"endTime":534.459,"body":"So first of all, starting with Socrates, we'll look at that question of how non-experts"},{"startTime":534.459,"endTime":536.765,"body":"can know which experts to trust."},{"startTime":538.145,"endTime":546.245,"body":"Socratic interrogation was designed to show that many self-proclaimed experts are not genuine experts at"},{"startTime":546.245,"endTime":546.785,"body":"all."},{"startTime":547.775,"endTime":554.834,"body":"And what we can also realize, um, drawing on modern findings, is that even people"},{"startTime":554.834,"endTime":561.893,"body":"who have expertise in some respects may still be susceptible to cognitive biases, to making"},{"startTime":561.893,"endTime":562.835,"body":"characteristic mistakes."},{"startTime":564.295,"endTime":569.404,"body":"So while we shouldn't give up on finding or needing experts, we do have to"},{"startTime":569.404,"endTime":574.513,"body":"make sure to test them, and Socrates can help to guide us in how to"},{"startTime":574.513,"endTime":575.195,"body":"do that."},{"startTime":577.255,"endTime":582.907,"body":"In fact, what I'll be arguing is that the best way to test experts is"},{"startTime":582.907,"endTime":586.675,"body":"to become healthily skeptical about our own certainties as well."},{"startTime":587.935,"endTime":593.115,"body":"So we experts can be vulnerable to biases, but so can all of us."},{"startTime":593.735,"endTime":599.819,"body":"And so the way to avoid the extreme temptations of conspiracy theories is to recognize"},{"startTime":599.819,"endTime":605.904,"body":"that all certainties, those that we have, those that others have, those that experts have,"},{"startTime":605.904,"endTime":609.555,"body":"have to be periodically scrutinized with an open mind."},{"startTime":611.975,"endTime":617.628,"body":"And then in the second half of the talk, I'll turn to the question of"},{"startTime":617.628,"endTime":623.282,"body":"just how democracies can draw on experts, but without letting them usurp the kinds of"},{"startTime":623.282,"endTime":626.675,"body":"judgements that citizens and our representatives should be making."},{"startTime":628.015,"endTime":634.086,"body":"So a key starting point here is the idea that citizens should decide the ends"},{"startTime":634.086,"endTime":636.515,"body":"while experts advise on the means."},{"startTime":637.875,"endTime":641.695,"body":"But again, I'm going to suggest that that can turn out to be too simple."},{"startTime":642.765,"endTime":646.255,"body":"Ends and means are actually more closely intertwined."},{"startTime":646.955,"endTime":650.775,"body":"We have to test them both in tandem with one another."},{"startTime":651.555,"endTime":657.855,"body":"Um, indeed at bottom, scientific inquiry and democratic inquiry have to be connected."},{"startTime":660.645,"endTime":667.313,"body":"So the thread running through the lecture as a whole is the idea that while"},{"startTime":667.313,"endTime":670.425,"body":"democracies need experts, experts are human too."},{"startTime":671.815,"endTime":677.855,"body":"So it's a mistake to presuppose a stark wholesale contrast between experts and everybody else,"},{"startTime":677.855,"endTime":680.675,"body":"as if these were two different species."},{"startTime":682.075,"endTime":683.445,"body":"Instead, there's a continuum."},{"startTime":684.735,"endTime":689.335,"body":"Scientists start out as curious, inquiring ordinary people."},{"startTime":690.355,"endTime":696.005,"body":"They develop a training and commitment to specialized inquiry, but they never learn."},{"startTime":696.475,"endTime":701.725,"body":"They never lose all the weaknesses that ordinary people generally share."},{"startTime":702.385,"endTime":707.976,"body":"And so we all have to try to improve our performance and be aware that"},{"startTime":707.976,"endTime":713.195,"body":"we can all make mistakes so we can adapt the saying, trust, but verify."},{"startTime":714.225,"endTime":720.285,"body":"So trust, but only because you also test experts and also yourself."},{"startTime":722.585,"endTime":722.875,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":722.875,"endTime":724.075,"body":"So that's the roadmap."},{"startTime":724.095,"endTime":729.366,"body":"So now, the first part of the lecture will be on Socrates, on how to"},{"startTime":729.366,"endTime":731.475,"body":"tell an expert from a fraud."},{"startTime":733.965,"endTime":740.77,"body":"So Socrates is depicted in Plato's dialogues as refusing to take anyone's claim to expertise"},{"startTime":740.77,"endTime":742.585,"body":"or wisdom for granted."},{"startTime":744.285,"endTime":751.479,"body":"Instead, he interrogated the self-proclaimed experts in the Athenian democracy all around him, everyone who"},{"startTime":751.479,"endTime":757.715,"body":"claimed mastery of a professional skill that you might think relevant to politics."},{"startTime":759.125,"endTime":764.465,"body":"And in doing that, he laid out some criteria for telling experts from frauds."},{"startTime":764.845,"endTime":771.013,"body":"And these are actually strikingly similar to those that philosophers of science have offered more"},{"startTime":771.013,"endTime":771.425,"body":"recently."},{"startTime":773.375,"endTime":780.245,"body":"So consider these four criteria that are actually common to Socrates who died in 3,"},{"startTime":780.245,"endTime":787.115,"body":"9, 9, BCE, and, um, Alvin Goldman still with us, who was born in 1938."},{"startTime":788.535,"endTime":793.218,"body":"So, and each of them also have some other criteria, but this is a central"},{"startTime":793.218,"endTime":794.155,"body":"area of overlap."},{"startTime":794.775,"endTime":796.715,"body":"So how can you identify an expert?"},{"startTime":796.825,"endTime":800.475,"body":"Well, an expert should put forward testable arguments."},{"startTime":800.695,"endTime":806.475,"body":"The philosopher Carl Popper would say arguments that can at least in principle be falsified."},{"startTime":806.855,"endTime":809.275,"body":"We can disprove them, we can test them."},{"startTime":810.675,"endTime":813.365,"body":"Ideally, experts move towards consensus."},{"startTime":813.545,"endTime":818.81,"body":"We know not always, not all the time, but there's a sort of process of,"},{"startTime":818.81,"endTime":820.565,"body":"um, imperfect, but real convergence."},{"startTime":821.905,"endTime":827.895,"body":"We can look at their credentials, their training and education, and we can look at"},{"startTime":827.895,"endTime":833.885,"body":"their track record, how have they done have their predictions, their actions generally born fruit."},{"startTime":835.705,"endTime":838.965,"body":"Now the question is then, well, who can deploy these criteria?"},{"startTime":839.995,"endTime":844.285,"body":"Does is that itself something that only at other experts can do?"},{"startTime":845.895,"endTime":851.911,"body":"So in some Socrates seems to suggest that, that it's only an expert who can"},{"startTime":851.911,"endTime":853.115,"body":"recognize another expert."},{"startTime":853.915,"endTime":858.095,"body":"And some modern philosophers have often taken that general stance."},{"startTime":858.835,"endTime":863.691,"body":"So the philosopher Elizabeth Anderson, for example, says, well, there are some things citizens can"},{"startTime":863.691,"endTime":864.015,"body":"do."},{"startTime":864.525,"endTime":866.215,"body":"They can look at credentials."},{"startTime":866.285,"endTime":871.932,"body":"There's a few other things they can do, but generally citizens should operate at a"},{"startTime":871.932,"endTime":873.815,"body":"kind of deferential arms length."},{"startTime":874.695,"endTime":881.859,"body":"So Anderson sets up the problem as a kind of lopsided battle between a dominant"},{"startTime":881.859,"endTime":886.635,"body":"group of credible scientists and few what she calls crackpots."},{"startTime":887.175,"endTime":891.165,"body":"So these are the crackpot, um, uh, fraud scientists, right?"},{"startTime":891.225,"endTime":893.045,"body":"And they're pretty easy to identify."},{"startTime":893.225,"endTime":896.445,"body":"You can just look at the picture and see who they are."},{"startTime":896.585,"endTime":900.045,"body":"So for Anderson, it's not so difficult for citizens to know who to trust."},{"startTime":900.425,"endTime":905.405,"body":"She thinks mostly you'll be able to see the dominant group of credible credentialed scientists."},{"startTime":905.585,"endTime":910.066,"body":"And then there's a few crackpots, and we can sort of pretty easily weed them"},{"startTime":910.066,"endTime":910.365,"body":"out."},{"startTime":912.605,"endTime":916.265,"body":"But Socrates actually, I think, was more skeptical than that."},{"startTime":916.445,"endTime":923.208,"body":"And again, as the report of the infected blood in inquiry suggests, we have good"},{"startTime":923.208,"endTime":929.971,"body":"reason to remain skeptical while not going all the way to wholesale rejection to sort"},{"startTime":929.971,"endTime":931.775,"body":"of blanket rejection, right?"},{"startTime":932.195,"endTime":939.518,"body":"And so Socrates very interestingly insisted that he did not possess any substantial wisdom or"},{"startTime":939.518,"endTime":940.495,"body":"expertise himself."},{"startTime":940.835,"endTime":947.346,"body":"So he sets himself up as a non-expert, but he digs in to testing those"},{"startTime":947.346,"endTime":948.215,"body":"explanatory arguments."},{"startTime":948.555,"endTime":953.583,"body":"So it's not just that the criterion is that the experts have to put forward"},{"startTime":953.583,"endTime":956.935,"body":"testable arguments, Socrates then actually digs in to test them."},{"startTime":957.945,"endTime":965.333,"body":"So for example, in Plato's dialogue called, um, the, the Laies or the Lockes, um,"},{"startTime":965.333,"endTime":971.245,"body":"he tests the knowledge of two Athenian generals of what courage requires."},{"startTime":971.345,"endTime":976.885,"body":"You might think generals should be experts in courage, and he reveals that it's wanting."},{"startTime":978.645,"endTime":985.015,"body":"And the key to his method is to see whether an expert's claims lead them"},{"startTime":985.015,"endTime":985.865,"body":"into contradiction."},{"startTime":986.655,"endTime":992.823,"body":"So, and are you test an argument by seeing whether its implications end up being"},{"startTime":992.823,"endTime":993.235,"body":"contradictory."},{"startTime":993.575,"endTime":999.235,"body":"You can't actually maintain everything that the expert originally thought that they could claim."},{"startTime":999.975,"endTime":1005.428,"body":"And so if your claims end up in self contradiction, if you can't go on"},{"startTime":1005.428,"endTime":1010.881,"body":"consistently defending your position, then it's a good bet that you're not an expert after"},{"startTime":1010.881,"endTime":1011.245,"body":"all."},{"startTime":1011.945,"endTime":1017.698,"body":"And so that's something that a non-expert can deploy, because logic, contradiction is a kind"},{"startTime":1017.698,"endTime":1022.685,"body":"of capacity that's available to all of us to use and test, right?"},{"startTime":1022.685,"endTime":1026.325,"body":"That gives us a systematic route for discrediting."},{"startTime":1026.795,"endTime":1033.423,"body":"Some would be experts who turn out to be frauds, but at the same time,"},{"startTime":1033.423,"endTime":1038.285,"body":"Socrates was as tough on himself as he was on others."},{"startTime":1039.204,"endTime":1044.964,"body":"Remember I said that he insisted that he did not possess expertise himself."},{"startTime":1045.464,"endTime":1051.907,"body":"He claim he checked out his own understanding and concluded that it didn't deserve the"},{"startTime":1051.907,"endTime":1054.485,"body":"honorific title of knowledge or wisdom."},{"startTime":1055.265,"endTime":1062.451,"body":"So in his courtroom, self-defense, um, that is depicted in Plato's apology, the word aplo"},{"startTime":1062.451,"endTime":1065.805,"body":"in Greek really means a defense speech."},{"startTime":1065.985,"endTime":1071.699,"body":"Um, even though we translate it as an apology in that speech, he di he"},{"startTime":1071.699,"endTime":1077.414,"body":"disavowed having any knowledge at all, but yet he went on looking for expertise in"},{"startTime":1077.414,"endTime":1077.795,"body":"others."},{"startTime":1078.955,"endTime":1085.18,"body":"And so what's interesting about Socrates' approach is that it's a kind of testing and"},{"startTime":1085.18,"endTime":1090.575,"body":"skepticism that doesn't go so far as rejecting the possibility of expertise altogether."},{"startTime":1091.725,"endTime":1097.779,"body":"It's precisely in holding that expertise was so important that Socrates pursued that scrutiny to"},{"startTime":1097.779,"endTime":1101.815,"body":"make sure that experts were truly up to the job."},{"startTime":1102.715,"endTime":1110.508,"body":"Now, of course, we are not all Socrates, but we too can learn to assess"},{"startTime":1110.508,"endTime":1115.185,"body":"the kinds of cognitive moves that self-proclaimed experts make."},{"startTime":1115.245,"endTime":1120.799,"body":"And here I'm gonna suggest some ways that we can go beyond logical self-contradiction to"},{"startTime":1120.799,"endTime":1126.353,"body":"develop a nose for which experts have the kinds of skills and habits that are"},{"startTime":1126.353,"endTime":1128.945,"body":"more likely to lead them to success."},{"startTime":1130.165,"endTime":1138.007,"body":"And so here I wanna draw on a fascinating study by Philip Tetlock called Expert"},{"startTime":1138.007,"endTime":1143.235,"body":"Political Judgment, which assessed the actual performance of political pundits."},{"startTime":1143.815,"endTime":1149.534,"body":"So he actually looked at a sample of political pundits who had made predictions over"},{"startTime":1149.534,"endTime":1155.254,"body":"time of what would happen, for example, if the US pulled out of Afghanistan, that"},{"startTime":1155.254,"endTime":1160.973,"body":"sort of political claim, and that those claims could be later tested for success or"},{"startTime":1160.973,"endTime":1161.355,"body":"failure."},{"startTime":1163.535,"endTime":1171.856,"body":"So Tetlock in his study invoked a classic distinction drawn by the philosopher Isaiah Berlin"},{"startTime":1171.856,"endTime":1174.075,"body":"between hedgehogs and foxes."},{"startTime":1174.815,"endTime":1181.091,"body":"So Berlin's distinction, which you may know, is that hedgehogs clinging to a single big"},{"startTime":1181.091,"endTime":1185.275,"body":"idea, while foxes are interested in lots of different things."},{"startTime":1186.095,"endTime":1191.155,"body":"So this is a sort of general categor categorization of different kinds of experts, right?"},{"startTime":1191.155,"endTime":1195.855,"body":"Whether you are a captain or a doctor, you might be more like a hedgehog"},{"startTime":1195.855,"endTime":1196.795,"body":"than a fox."},{"startTime":1196.855,"endTime":1202.875,"body":"So these are two different ways in which you can pursue your, your typical expertise."},{"startTime":1204.725,"endTime":1211.662,"body":"And what Tetlock shows is that overall political pundits who are hedgehogs are less successful,"},{"startTime":1211.662,"endTime":1215.825,"body":"and so they're less genuinely expert than the foxes."},{"startTime":1216.375,"endTime":1216.665,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":1216.665,"endTime":1222.417,"body":"So the hedgehogs clinging to a single idea, but that won't always be applicable in"},{"startTime":1222.417,"endTime":1223.185,"body":"the circumstances."},{"startTime":1224.455,"endTime":1229.035,"body":"But that means also that they're less willing to engage in self scrutiny."},{"startTime":1229.665,"endTime":1235.09,"body":"They're over invested in their one big idea, and so they become more defensive about"},{"startTime":1235.09,"endTime":1240.155,"body":"their errors, and that makes them more likely to dig in and repeat them."},{"startTime":1241.635,"endTime":1245.615,"body":"By contrast, the foxes are looking at a wide range of factors."},{"startTime":1245.645,"endTime":1251.185,"body":"They're interested in a whole range of different explanations, and so they can better calibrate"},{"startTime":1251.185,"endTime":1256.725,"body":"their predictions to the facts, and that means they're also less defensive about their mistakes."},{"startTime":1257.565,"endTime":1262.731,"body":"So what's interesting about this is that we as observers can actually get a sense"},{"startTime":1262.731,"endTime":1266.865,"body":"of which kinds of pundits are hedgehogs and which are foxes, right?"},{"startTime":1266.885,"endTime":1271.971,"body":"We don't have to have all the political knowledge that they have to see whether"},{"startTime":1271.971,"endTime":1277.057,"body":"a given pundit is always repeating the same kind of explanation or whether they seem"},{"startTime":1277.057,"endTime":1281.465,"body":"to be attentive to a wide range of different factors in different circumstances."},{"startTime":1282.485,"endTime":1286.385,"body":"So this takes us beyond just having to check credentials."},{"startTime":1287.075,"endTime":1292.29,"body":"We're able to kind of dig into the argument, not a hundred percent, we're not"},{"startTime":1292.29,"endTime":1297.505,"body":"pundits ourselves, but we can get a better nose for when we might be misled."},{"startTime":1298.645,"endTime":1305.658,"body":"And so we can think here also of a distinction that two sociologists have drawn,"},{"startTime":1305.658,"endTime":1312.205,"body":"hm, Collins and Robert Evans between what they call on the left contributory expertise."},{"startTime":1312.345,"endTime":1318.467,"body":"So to have contributory expertise is what enables you to advance an activities objectives to"},{"startTime":1318.467,"endTime":1321.325,"body":"actually sort of do the thing, right?"},{"startTime":1321.325,"endTime":1323.405,"body":"So that's the pundits doing the thing."},{"startTime":1323.465,"endTime":1329.807,"body":"We can't do that, but we can develop an interactional expertise, we can talk about"},{"startTime":1329.807,"endTime":1336.15,"body":"what they're doing, and we can understand, talk about it without necessarily being able to"},{"startTime":1336.15,"endTime":1338.265,"body":"do the thing ourselves, right?"},{"startTime":1338.265,"endTime":1343.095,"body":"So this is a way where we can start to break down that sharp distinction"},{"startTime":1343.095,"endTime":1344.705,"body":"between experts and everybody else."},{"startTime":1345.275,"endTime":1350.967,"body":"We're not gonna become experts, but we can get better at assessing the kinds of"},{"startTime":1350.967,"endTime":1352.865,"body":"moves that experts are making."},{"startTime":1355.365,"endTime":1360.905,"body":"Now, Aristotle would actually two generations later build on Socrates point here."},{"startTime":1361.005,"endTime":1365.46,"body":"And so now I'm gonna bring in Aristotle, but to complete the first part of"},{"startTime":1365.46,"endTime":1369.025,"body":"the talk before we move on to Aristotle in the second part."},{"startTime":1371.005,"endTime":1374.888,"body":"So this is Aristotle making a similar kind of point that we've just seen that"},{"startTime":1374.888,"endTime":1375.665,"body":"Socrates to make."},{"startTime":1376.405,"endTime":1377.625,"body":"So this is in his work."},{"startTime":1377.885,"endTime":1384.695,"body":"Um, the politics book three, chapter 11, Aristotle confronts this view that we might have"},{"startTime":1384.695,"endTime":1391.505,"body":"that experts such as medical doctors can be assessed only by their expert peers, right?"},{"startTime":1391.505,"endTime":1396.044,"body":"So he states that in the first quotation on the, on the slide, just as"},{"startTime":1396.044,"endTime":1398.465,"body":"a doctor should be inspected by a doctor."},{"startTime":1399.165,"endTime":1403.835,"body":"So others should be inspected by their peers, right?"},{"startTime":1403.855,"endTime":1410.585,"body":"So again, we might add why listen to any non-doctors if we have two doctors"},{"startTime":1410.585,"endTime":1417.315,"body":"in the house, but in what follows on the slide, Aristotle goes on to explain"},{"startTime":1417.315,"endTime":1420.905,"body":"why we should reject that bait blanket position."},{"startTime":1422.225,"endTime":1427.135,"body":"And he does so by pointing out that there are various levels of education in"},{"startTime":1427.135,"endTime":1428.445,"body":"a profession like medicine."},{"startTime":1430.105,"endTime":1436.415,"body":"One might have a general education in a subject, one might be an ordinary practitioner"},{"startTime":1436.415,"endTime":1442.725,"body":"of it, or one might be a master craftsman, a consultant in the British system."},{"startTime":1444.385,"endTime":1451.122,"body":"And Aristotle implies in this discussion that someone at any of these levels can at"},{"startTime":1451.122,"endTime":1455.165,"body":"least sometimes judge even the most expert doctor right?"},{"startTime":1455.185,"endTime":1455.405,"body":"Now."},{"startTime":1455.405,"endTime":1458.645,"body":"Notice that this isn't a a, an account of non-experts."},{"startTime":1458.645,"endTime":1464.021,"body":"You still have to have general education in a subject, but you don't necessarily need"},{"startTime":1464.021,"endTime":1467.605,"body":"to be as expert as the person whom you're assessing."},{"startTime":1468.345,"endTime":1474.216,"body":"So think of a judge at a gymnastics competition who never reached the heights of"},{"startTime":1474.216,"endTime":1476.565,"body":"the gymnasts whom they're judging, right?"},{"startTime":1476.805,"endTime":1482.914,"body":"A gymnastics judge might have certain competencies and skills that enable them to judge even"},{"startTime":1482.914,"endTime":1485.765,"body":"when they themselves can't do the thing."},{"startTime":1485.875,"endTime":1490.165,"body":"They can't do the full thing that the people before them are, are doing."},{"startTime":1492.775,"endTime":1493.065,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":1493.085,"endTime":1499.52,"body":"So there we see how it is that different kinds of people might be able"},{"startTime":1499.52,"endTime":1505.955,"body":"to develop the kinds of habits, the repertoire, the awareness, the nose for assessing expert"},{"startTime":1505.955,"endTime":1506.385,"body":"claims."},{"startTime":1506.565,"endTime":1508.905,"body":"So we don't have to be completely credulous."},{"startTime":1509.405,"endTime":1514.917,"body":"We can be appropriately skeptical, but that doesn't have to take us all the way"},{"startTime":1514.917,"endTime":1518.225,"body":"to kind of blanket hostility and rejection of expertise."},{"startTime":1518.365,"endTime":1521.105,"body":"We can find that healthy middle ground."},{"startTime":1525.015,"endTime":1529.498,"body":"But let me now open the door to the next part, the second half really,"},{"startTime":1529.498,"endTime":1530.395,"body":"of the talk."},{"startTime":1531.605,"endTime":1537.913,"body":"And this is that even when laypeople do well, when we identify the best experts"},{"startTime":1537.913,"endTime":1544.222,"body":"to trust and who not to trust, that still won't mean that all of those"},{"startTime":1544.222,"endTime":1545.905,"body":"experts are perfect, right?"},{"startTime":1546.005,"endTime":1553.049,"body":"On the contrary, everyone expert and non-expert alike has a general tendency to what has"},{"startTime":1553.049,"endTime":1559.625,"body":"been called, um, an overconfidence bias, um, in response to the presence of uncertainty."},{"startTime":1561.285,"endTime":1568.247,"body":"So for example, um, it's been noted that as a matter of general human psychology"},{"startTime":1568.247,"endTime":1572.425,"body":"uncertainty can breed wishful thinking and promote optimistic biases."},{"startTime":1573.365,"endTime":1580.72,"body":"And this leads individuals, and I'm quoting here, um, from an article in nature, climate"},{"startTime":1580.72,"endTime":1587.585,"body":"change to often misinterpret the intended messages conveyed and to do so over optimistically."},{"startTime":1588.565,"endTime":1591.105,"body":"So this is the result of overconfidence."},{"startTime":1591.805,"endTime":1594.185,"body":"And here's another example of overconfidence."},{"startTime":1594.265,"endTime":1600.202,"body":"I don't know if, um, what this shows is a zookeeper, um, who as the"},{"startTime":1600.202,"endTime":1603.765,"body":"result of overconfidence falls into the bears, um, enclosure."},{"startTime":1604.265,"endTime":1606.925,"body":"So overconfidence can be fatal."},{"startTime":1608.635,"endTime":1614.916,"body":"And indeed Plato, um, in his dialogue, the laws condemns what he calls, and I"},{"startTime":1614.916,"endTime":1621.198,"body":"quote, fearlessness and confidence, that is too great, ill timed and toward things one must"},{"startTime":1621.198,"endTime":1622.455,"body":"not do, right?"},{"startTime":1622.515,"endTime":1629.546,"body":"So Plato, um, shares Socrates concern with the kind of overconfidence that can lead us"},{"startTime":1629.546,"endTime":1630.015,"body":"astray."},{"startTime":1632.125,"endTime":1638.607,"body":"But what's important is that this kind of overconfidence in the presence of uncertainty is"},{"startTime":1638.607,"endTime":1644.225,"body":"just one of the many cognitive biases that experts and laypeople actually share."},{"startTime":1645.045,"endTime":1648.905,"body":"So, um, cognitive psychologists have cataloged these biases."},{"startTime":1649.135,"endTime":1650.385,"body":"They're very well known."},{"startTime":1650.845,"endTime":1655.665,"body":"So besides overconfidence, there's confirmation bias, right?"},{"startTime":1655.715,"endTime":1661.737,"body":"Where the, you can see in this slide, the facts and your prior beliefs intersect"},{"startTime":1661.737,"endTime":1663.745,"body":"to determine what you see."},{"startTime":1664.405,"endTime":1670.92,"body":"We tend to overvalue evidence that will prove what we already are inclined to think,"},{"startTime":1670.92,"endTime":1671.355,"body":"right?"},{"startTime":1671.615,"endTime":1675.115,"body":"And so one author has summarized a whole host of other biases."},{"startTime":1675.375,"endTime":1681.804,"body":"And here I'm going to give an extended quote, um, from an article In climatic"},{"startTime":1681.804,"endTime":1687.805,"body":"Change, we, we violate basic rules of probability and do not update our beliefs."},{"startTime":1688.705,"endTime":1690.685,"body":"We underestimate uncertainty."},{"startTime":1690.825,"endTime":1692.525,"body":"That's the overconfidence bias."},{"startTime":1693.145,"endTime":1700.139,"body":"We engage in wishful thinking, we make different decisions, de depending on the way data"},{"startTime":1700.139,"endTime":1702.005,"body":"are presented, that's framing."},{"startTime":1702.545,"endTime":1708.045,"body":"And when we're exposed to irrelevant information that's anchoring, okay?"},{"startTime":1708.045,"endTime":1711.845,"body":"And there's a whole host of other biases that's the end of that quotation."},{"startTime":1712.425,"endTime":1719.635,"body":"Um, uh, but what's important is, again, that this same author writes, and I quote,"},{"startTime":1719.635,"endTime":1726.365,"body":"scientists and professionals, not only ordinary people suffer from many of these judgmental biases."},{"startTime":1728.755,"endTime":1730.775,"body":"Now, this might actually lead us to despair."},{"startTime":1730.925,"endTime":1735.38,"body":"It's not just that it, we can't get it right, but experts can't get it"},{"startTime":1735.38,"endTime":1735.975,"body":"right either."},{"startTime":1737.085,"endTime":1739.665,"body":"But there's a silver lining to this analysis."},{"startTime":1740.305,"endTime":1741.825,"body":"Nobody's perfect, right?"},{"startTime":1741.875,"endTime":1742.745,"body":"We're all human."},{"startTime":1743.485,"endTime":1749.23,"body":"But part of the point of the scientific method is to try to help scientists"},{"startTime":1749.23,"endTime":1751.145,"body":"to minimize these weaknesses, right?"},{"startTime":1751.145,"endTime":1755.645,"body":"So the point of the scientific method is that it makes us go back and"},{"startTime":1755.645,"endTime":1755.945,"body":"check."},{"startTime":1756.205,"endTime":1762.791,"body":"We try to check whether we're being led astray by our prior assumptions, for example,"},{"startTime":1762.791,"endTime":1765.865,"body":"by our overconfidence, by our confirmation bias."},{"startTime":1766.765,"endTime":1772.205,"body":"And so actually, sometimes scientists are more likely to get it right, precisely because they"},{"startTime":1772.205,"endTime":1774.745,"body":"engage in this kind of learning process."},{"startTime":1775.605,"endTime":1780.825,"body":"Um, uh, even though it's still not perfect, they may still sometimes get it wrong."},{"startTime":1782.445,"endTime":1787.726,"body":"And so the good news is not just that the scientists might then do better,"},{"startTime":1787.726,"endTime":1793.008,"body":"it's that we too, as ordinary people could also find ways to engage in a"},{"startTime":1793.008,"endTime":1794.065,"body":"learning process, right?"},{"startTime":1794.165,"endTime":1802.223,"body":"We also can do some work to try to guard against these cognitive vices and"},{"startTime":1802.223,"endTime":1807.595,"body":"cultivate some better epistemic habits, some better mental habits, right?"},{"startTime":1807.595,"endTime":1812.875,"body":"After all, we're all inquirers scientists and, and non-scientists alike."},{"startTime":1813.565,"endTime":1818.865,"body":"So we can all become better and inquirers more self-aware."},{"startTime":1820.985,"endTime":1826.232,"body":"So that then leads me to my final, um, discussion in the latter part now"},{"startTime":1826.232,"endTime":1831.479,"body":"of the second half of the talk, which is to draw an Aristotle to think"},{"startTime":1831.479,"endTime":1836.727,"body":"about, well, if we are able to get better at this, how can we as"},{"startTime":1836.727,"endTime":1840.925,"body":"democratic publics make decisions that take the findings of science into account?"},{"startTime":1841.505,"endTime":1847.711,"body":"How are the claims of experts then once we've scrutinized and checked them relevant to"},{"startTime":1847.711,"endTime":1848.125,"body":"politics?"},{"startTime":1850.375,"endTime":1855.422,"body":"So here I want to recall a quotation that I shared in my fourth Gresham"},{"startTime":1855.422,"endTime":1858.115,"body":"lecture, which was on ancient and modern democracy."},{"startTime":1859.375,"endTime":1862.035,"body":"Uh, so this is Aristotle, and this is the quotation."},{"startTime":1863.455,"endTime":1866.275,"body":"So this is, um, found in the acid's history."},{"startTime":1866.895,"endTime":1873.315,"body":"Um, this is, um, a Ahan Aus who was a democratic leader in ancient Syracuse."},{"startTime":1874.255,"endTime":1881.405,"body":"And he asserted the best judges of what they hear are the many meaning, the"},{"startTime":1881.405,"endTime":1882.835,"body":"Democratic many, right?"},{"startTime":1882.855,"endTime":1886.915,"body":"So the many can be good judges of what we hear."},{"startTime":1888.275,"endTime":1893.564,"body":"And I think that thought remains the key to a basic paradigm about the place"},{"startTime":1893.564,"endTime":1894.975,"body":"of expertise and democracy."},{"startTime":1896.175,"endTime":1897.505,"body":"Experts give advice."},{"startTime":1898.165,"endTime":1900.025,"body":"We can say the experts propose."},{"startTime":1900.215,"endTime":1907.056,"body":"They can propose means the many, the people judge and decide, and especially we judge"},{"startTime":1907.056,"endTime":1910.705,"body":"the ends to which the means can lead."},{"startTime":1912.385,"endTime":1919.394,"body":"So Aristotle developed this basic paradigm in some powerful passages in his work, in the"},{"startTime":1919.394,"endTime":1922.665,"body":"politics, as well as the rhetoric, right?"},{"startTime":1922.725,"endTime":1925.145,"body":"So he emphasized, well, what's the role of the judge?"},{"startTime":1925.325,"endTime":1927.105,"body":"Why is that important in politics?"},{"startTime":1927.945,"endTime":1930.525,"body":"And by what he means by a judge Here, it's important."},{"startTime":1930.555,"endTime":1933.205,"body":"It's not just a judge in a court of law."},{"startTime":1933.835,"endTime":1938.125,"body":"It's a judge in any context where you're making decisions about what you should do."},{"startTime":1938.825,"endTime":1943.485,"body":"So e by when we talk about judges here, that's also in a, in a"},{"startTime":1943.485,"endTime":1947.525,"body":"political assembly and a council as well as in the law courts, right?"},{"startTime":1947.525,"endTime":1954.005,"body":"And Aristotle, in the rhetoric rights, we may say that anyone is your judge whom"},{"startTime":1954.005,"endTime":1956.165,"body":"you have to persuade, okay?"},{"startTime":1956.165,"endTime":1961.498,"body":"So the redder, the the orators, again, are trying to persuade the democratic public who"},{"startTime":1961.498,"endTime":1962.565,"body":"will then judge."},{"startTime":1964.325,"endTime":1968.985,"body":"So that then leads Aristotle to ask, okay, then who is the better judge?"},{"startTime":1969.725,"endTime":1973.705,"body":"An expert maker or a non-expert user?"},{"startTime":1974.645,"endTime":1978.185,"body":"And this is a long quotation, so let me help to guide you through it."},{"startTime":1978.185,"endTime":1980.625,"body":"It's a very famous passage of the politics."},{"startTime":1982.175,"endTime":1987.846,"body":"So Aristotle writes, there are some crafts in which the maker might not be either"},{"startTime":1987.846,"endTime":1990.115,"body":"the only or the best judge."},{"startTime":1991.005,"endTime":1996.357,"body":"And these are the ones where those who do not possess the craft, nevertheless have"},{"startTime":1996.357,"endTime":1997.785,"body":"knowledge of its products."},{"startTime":1998.565,"endTime":2001.025,"body":"For example, the maker of a house."},{"startTime":2001.325,"endTime":2005.789,"body":"So the builder or the architect is not the only one who has some knowledge"},{"startTime":2005.789,"endTime":2006.385,"body":"about it."},{"startTime":2006.725,"endTime":2012.293,"body":"The one who uses it, the house owner or renter is an even better judge,"},{"startTime":2012.293,"endTime":2012.665,"body":"right?"},{"startTime":2012.905,"endTime":2018.792,"body":"A captain judges a rudder better than a carpenter and a guest rather than a"},{"startTime":2018.792,"endTime":2019.185,"body":"cook."},{"startTime":2019.805,"endTime":2022.205,"body":"The feast, okay?"},{"startTime":2022.205,"endTime":2024.445,"body":"So here I've given just some images for that, right?"},{"startTime":2024.465,"endTime":2029.445,"body":"So these are the homeowners or renters with the, uh, builder, right?"},{"startTime":2029.785,"endTime":2034.925,"body":"And, um, the captain with the carpenter making their rudder, right?"},{"startTime":2035.025,"endTime":2040.685,"body":"And here we have the guests, um, and the chef, um, judging the feast, right?"},{"startTime":2040.685,"endTime":2044.77,"body":"So what's interesting about this is this is yet another way in which ordinary people"},{"startTime":2044.77,"endTime":2046.405,"body":"can have a kind of expertise."},{"startTime":2046.865,"endTime":2051.739,"body":"And of course, the colloquial way of thinking about this is, you know, it's knowing"},{"startTime":2051.739,"endTime":2053.364,"body":"where the shoe pinches, right?"},{"startTime":2053.385,"endTime":2058.128,"body":"So the person who's wearing the shoe is sometimes a better judge actually than the"},{"startTime":2058.128,"endTime":2058.445,"body":"shoemaker."},{"startTime":2058.585,"endTime":2060.605,"body":"That's the same fundamental idea."},{"startTime":2061.074,"endTime":2065.165,"body":"It's because we're using some of these crafts that we're able to judge."},{"startTime":2065.225,"endTime":2070.141,"body":"So again, we don't need to be the experts, but there are ways in which"},{"startTime":2070.141,"endTime":2072.764,"body":"we can judge the products that experts make."},{"startTime":2074.465,"endTime":2080.281,"body":"So that is the kind of Aristotelian idea that again, points us towards the means"},{"startTime":2080.281,"endTime":2081.445,"body":"and distinction, right?"},{"startTime":2081.505,"endTime":2086.947,"body":"The carpenter produces the rudder, but it's only a means to the pilot's art and"},{"startTime":2086.947,"endTime":2092.39,"body":"the pilot's art is a means to the people's decision of the ship, of state,"},{"startTime":2092.39,"endTime":2094.205,"body":"of deciding where to go."},{"startTime":2094.985,"endTime":2098.165,"body":"So what the people decide is the fundamental direction."},{"startTime":2098.475,"endTime":2101.365,"body":"It's this choice of guideposts, right?"},{"startTime":2101.385,"endTime":2104.045,"body":"And the experts advise on how to get there."},{"startTime":2104.305,"endTime":2107.285,"body":"That's basically the ends means to distinction."},{"startTime":2109.285,"endTime":2113.83,"body":"Now, as I said earlier, I do think that distinction is important, and I think"},{"startTime":2113.83,"endTime":2115.345,"body":"it's basically the right framework."},{"startTime":2115.965,"endTime":2121.761,"body":"Um, and part of the reason for that is that actually, um, people who are"},{"startTime":2121.761,"endTime":2127.558,"body":"masters of means in one area won't always know how to assess the means in"},{"startTime":2127.558,"endTime":2127.945,"body":"another."},{"startTime":2128.565,"endTime":2134.052,"body":"So this is the problem that I alluded to during the pandemic, for example, where"},{"startTime":2134.052,"endTime":2139.54,"body":"public health experts were experts on one domain of the question, but there were other"},{"startTime":2139.54,"endTime":2143.565,"body":"domains such as education that also needed experts to weigh in."},{"startTime":2144.305,"endTime":2149.457,"body":"And there's a very interesting reflection from the former director of the National Institutes of"},{"startTime":2149.457,"endTime":2152.205,"body":"Health during the pandemic in the United States."},{"startTime":2152.235,"endTime":2159.041,"body":"Francis Collins, who in a more recent, um, panel discussion came to acknowledge this, and"},{"startTime":2159.041,"endTime":2163.125,"body":"this is a very interesting self-aware reflection by Collins."},{"startTime":2163.125,"endTime":2167.505,"body":"So he says, if you're a public health person, you have this very narrow view"},{"startTime":2167.505,"endTime":2171.885,"body":"of what the right decision is, and that is something that will save a life."},{"startTime":2172.265,"endTime":2174.565,"body":"It doesn't matter what else happens."},{"startTime":2175.185,"endTime":2180.205,"body":"So you attach infinite value to stopping the disease and saving a life."},{"startTime":2180.625,"endTime":2185.325,"body":"And what he was suggesting there is that that was one crucial set of values,"},{"startTime":2185.325,"endTime":2189.085,"body":"but there were other questions that needed other experts to weigh in."},{"startTime":2189.105,"endTime":2195.17,"body":"And so that's why the ends had to be determined by political experts, um, rather"},{"startTime":2195.17,"endTime":2198.405,"body":"than only by, by scientists in any domain."},{"startTime":2200.065,"endTime":2206.622,"body":"And so, here's a graphic that I made with a former student, Cameron Langford, um,"},{"startTime":2206.622,"endTime":2209.245,"body":"of this men's means ends relationship."},{"startTime":2209.825,"endTime":2214.669,"body":"So at the top part of the graphic, and we, we don't need to go"},{"startTime":2214.669,"endTime":2219.514,"body":"through all of this, but basically what you see is that in the top most"},{"startTime":2219.514,"endTime":2224.359,"body":"left, um, area, we see the citizens deliberating about the values that they find most"},{"startTime":2224.359,"endTime":2225.005,"body":"important, right?"},{"startTime":2225.035,"endTime":2229.245,"body":"Then they tell the scientists, okay, these are the questions we wanna ask answered."},{"startTime":2229.835,"endTime":2234.885,"body":"Tell us how to get to the destination that we've chosen, right?"},{"startTime":2234.945,"endTime":2238.205,"body":"And then the scientists tell the citizens how to get there."},{"startTime":2238.515,"endTime":2238.805,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":2238.805,"endTime":2244.405,"body":"So the top part is basically that, um, ends to means decision framework."},{"startTime":2245.265,"endTime":2247.045,"body":"But the bottom arrow, right?"},{"startTime":2247.105,"endTime":2251.925,"body":"As you can see, the bottom arrow takes us back in the other direction."},{"startTime":2252.705,"endTime":2258.688,"body":"And this is the point that I wanted to make about ends and means not"},{"startTime":2258.688,"endTime":2259.885,"body":"being wholly separable."},{"startTime":2260.815,"endTime":2261.105,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":2261.405,"endTime":2266.155,"body":"And that's because often when we think about the end that we might want to"},{"startTime":2266.155,"endTime":2270.905,"body":"pursue, we do need to know something about the means in order to even decide"},{"startTime":2270.905,"endTime":2274.705,"body":"what end do we think is the best one to choose, right?"},{"startTime":2274.705,"endTime":2277.665,"body":"Again, remember those examples I gave about steering the ship?"},{"startTime":2278.085,"endTime":2283.127,"body":"We might think that's a great destination without knowing that if we aim for that"},{"startTime":2283.127,"endTime":2286.825,"body":"destination, we're more likely to end up a ground on rocks."},{"startTime":2287.995,"endTime":2294.55,"body":"And so ends and means have to be tested against one another in an iterative"},{"startTime":2294.55,"endTime":2296.735,"body":"and interactive learning process, right?"},{"startTime":2297.415,"endTime":2301.375,"body":"Citizens learn more by being in dialogue with experts about possible means."},{"startTime":2301.755,"endTime":2308.055,"body":"And scientists might also be able to refine the questions that they're asking by better"},{"startTime":2308.055,"endTime":2310.575,"body":"understanding the relationship between those ends."},{"startTime":2310.575,"endTime":2315.765,"body":"And those means we need to get a sense of what's feasible or risky, right?"},{"startTime":2315.915,"endTime":2319.245,"body":"What kinds of reasonable ends we might pursue."},{"startTime":2321.065,"endTime":2321.355,"body":"Okay?"},{"startTime":2321.415,"endTime":2326.275,"body":"So finally then, how can we get better at doing this?"},{"startTime":2327.475,"endTime":2332.815,"body":"So I've been suggesting ways we can as individuals develop better cognitive habits, right?"},{"startTime":2332.875,"endTime":2338.015,"body":"We can develop that nose by observing who's a hedgehog, who's a fox."},{"startTime":2338.345,"endTime":2343.375,"body":"Those we can, we can reflect on the kinds of means that scientists give."},{"startTime":2343.515,"endTime":2350.975,"body":"We can test expert claims and, and not be cowed into undo credulousness, right?"},{"startTime":2351.715,"endTime":2355.815,"body":"And there are some institutions that might also help us to do that better."},{"startTime":2356.675,"endTime":2362.695,"body":"So for example, the political scientist, James Fishkin, has advocated deliberative polls."},{"startTime":2363.275,"endTime":2368.343,"body":"Now, again, some of you may remember that in my last Gresham lecture I talked"},{"startTime":2368.343,"endTime":2369.695,"body":"about citizens juries, right?"},{"startTime":2369.695,"endTime":2378.975,"body":"So citizens juries evaluate policy proposals where it is, whereas deliberative polls discuss expert claims."},{"startTime":2379.435,"endTime":2385.922,"body":"So you can get citizens together, expose them to balanced information, ask them to reflect"},{"startTime":2385.922,"endTime":2392.41,"body":"on the judgments that experts have made, and then they can make that better informed"},{"startTime":2392.41,"endTime":2396.735,"body":"judgment of which expert decisions should feed into policy formation."},{"startTime":2397.315,"endTime":2403.722,"body":"And some have suggested that we should even require people to participate in these deliberative"},{"startTime":2403.722,"endTime":2410.129,"body":"polls much as we're required to do jury duty in order to make us better"},{"startTime":2410.129,"endTime":2412.265,"body":"at assessing expert claims, right?"},{"startTime":2412.725,"endTime":2419.313,"body":"But we can also, um, experiment as citizens with becoming lay scientists in some way"},{"startTime":2419.313,"endTime":2423.705,"body":"so we can participate in the crowdsourced formation of knowledge."},{"startTime":2423.925,"endTime":2431.059,"body":"Um, so Gresham's own professor of astronomy, Chris Lin taught, for example, is a co-founder"},{"startTime":2431.059,"endTime":2434.865,"body":"of the Zoo universe, citizen science platform, right?"},{"startTime":2434.865,"endTime":2440.345,"body":"Which enrolls people in, in collecting scientific data for studies."},{"startTime":2440.445,"endTime":2445.105,"body":"And so, again, it exposes you to the sorts of methods that scientists use."},{"startTime":2446.005,"endTime":2450.825,"body":"Um, or you can participate in the big Garden bird Watch every year."},{"startTime":2451.015,"endTime":2456.176,"body":"This took place in January organized by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds,"},{"startTime":2456.176,"endTime":2460.305,"body":"which is again, a form of this kind of crowdsource citizen knowledge."},{"startTime":2460.645,"endTime":2465.265,"body":"And again, by participating in this, we sort of practice being scientists."},{"startTime":2465.325,"endTime":2467.985,"body":"And that gives us, again, a better understanding."},{"startTime":2468.125,"endTime":2474.667,"body":"It helps to close that gulf or at least reduce the Gulf so that it's"},{"startTime":2474.667,"endTime":2479.465,"body":"not as sharp binary, um, gulf between, uh, people and scientists."},{"startTime":2481.135,"endTime":2487.836,"body":"So to conclude, the key in all these domains is to foster the self-awareness and"},{"startTime":2487.836,"endTime":2494.537,"body":"openness to self-criticism that can save us from putting our trust in false profits, but"},{"startTime":2494.537,"endTime":2501.238,"body":"also save us from the corrosive skepticism that would threaten the use of expertise all"},{"startTime":2501.238,"endTime":2501.685,"body":"together."},{"startTime":2503.085,"endTime":2509.825,"body":"Or as two scholars of Plato's Socrates have put it a true expert, and this"},{"startTime":2509.825,"endTime":2516.565,"body":"is their words, reporting, Socrates, um, is always seeking the truth and wants to be"},{"startTime":2516.565,"endTime":2523.305,"body":"free from error and makes caring for common goods the priority in practicing her expertise."},{"startTime":2523.675,"endTime":2524.505,"body":"Thank you very much."},{"startTime":2527.075,"endTime":2527.425,"body":"Thank,"},{"startTime":2534.155,"endTime":2538.145,"body":"Thank you, Melissa, for as usual, wonderful and brilliant exposition."},{"startTime":2538.925,"endTime":2543.941,"body":"Uh, it's, it strikes me, I suppose I would end up naturally in the position"},{"startTime":2543.941,"endTime":2544.945,"body":"of an expert."},{"startTime":2545.065,"endTime":2546.305,"body":"'cause I know an awful lot about."},{"startTime":2546.565,"endTime":2547.145,"body":"Not very much."},{"startTime":2548.125,"endTime":2550.745,"body":"And if you, you a hedgehog Yeah, the hedgehog, yeah."},{"startTime":2550.805,"endTime":2556.573,"body":"But if you, um, try and rationalize that relationship with the public, I think it"},{"startTime":2556.573,"endTime":2559.265,"body":"only works if I tell the truth."},{"startTime":2560.085,"endTime":2564.161,"body":"And it only works the f the most difficult person to tell the truth to"},{"startTime":2564.161,"endTime":2564.705,"body":"is yourself."},{"startTime":2565.005,"endTime":2565.225,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":2565.325,"endTime":2568.766,"body":"And then to the next person you're talking to, and then to the, to the"},{"startTime":2568.766,"endTime":2569.225,"body":"wider public."},{"startTime":2569.865,"endTime":2571.465,"body":"'cause without truth, there's trust."},{"startTime":2572.045,"endTime":2575.928,"body":"And we are living now in an era where each of those things is quite"},{"startTime":2575.928,"endTime":2576.705,"body":"difficult to define."},{"startTime":2577.685,"endTime":2582.883,"body":"And, uh, you sort of alluded to it in the time of Socrates and Aristotle"},{"startTime":2582.883,"endTime":2588.082,"body":"that they were similar problems, but is, is it more extreme or more dangerous now"},{"startTime":2588.082,"endTime":2590.855,"body":"than it was more difficult to identify that?"},{"startTime":2591.235,"endTime":2596.097,"body":"Or are people less comfortable in telling the truth, which allows the public whatever they"},{"startTime":2596.097,"endTime":2599.015,"body":"are to make a decision based on that information?"},{"startTime":2599.365,"endTime":2599.655,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2599.655,"endTime":2600.375,"body":"Thank you Martin."},{"startTime":2600.615,"endTime":2605.815,"body":"I think that truth and honesty are the first virtues of science."},{"startTime":2606.115,"endTime":2610.175,"body":"Um, and they're the first virtues of public communication also."},{"startTime":2610.555,"endTime":2615.778,"body":"And in fact, this is something that I'm going to be arguing in my final"},{"startTime":2615.778,"endTime":2621.001,"body":"lecture on 13 June, looking at climate change communication and what are the duties of"},{"startTime":2621.001,"endTime":2626.224,"body":"the expert scientists who are involved in that, particularly, that's going to be one dimension,"},{"startTime":2626.224,"endTime":2630.055,"body":"um, of the final lecture, which you can see, um, there."},{"startTime":2630.955,"endTime":2635.957,"body":"Um, in terms of the question of whether things were as difficult in ancient Greece"},{"startTime":2635.957,"endTime":2640.96,"body":"as today, um, you know, I think it's always tempting to think that we live"},{"startTime":2640.96,"endTime":2643.295,"body":"in the most perilous and difficult time."},{"startTime":2643.435,"endTime":2648.512,"body":"And, you know, we can see that there are certain step changes in the existence"},{"startTime":2648.512,"endTime":2653.59,"body":"of the internet and, um, uh, deep, you know, machine learning and so on, artificial"},{"startTime":2653.59,"endTime":2656.975,"body":"intelligence that are do pose in some ways new dangers."},{"startTime":2657.435,"endTime":2662.825,"body":"But I think it is always helpful to remember that there have always been sort"},{"startTime":2662.825,"endTime":2668.216,"body":"of new forms of cutting edge learning that are difficult for other people, ordinary people"},{"startTime":2668.216,"endTime":2668.935,"body":"to assess."},{"startTime":2669.595,"endTime":2674.436,"body":"So in the time of the Greeks, I was talking about the, the generals and,"},{"startTime":2674.436,"endTime":2675.405,"body":"and the philosophers."},{"startTime":2675.785,"endTime":2681.303,"body":"But for example, where there were the experts who had memorized Homer and were able"},{"startTime":2681.303,"endTime":2686.821,"body":"to perform Homer, and that gave them a kind of amazing cultural authority that was"},{"startTime":2686.821,"endTime":2689.765,"body":"very difficult for other people to challenge, challenge."},{"startTime":2689.765,"endTime":2693.405,"body":"So today probably nobody could memorize all of Homer, right?"},{"startTime":2693.465,"endTime":2695.485,"body":"We would find that almost impossible."},{"startTime":2695.485,"endTime":2698.845,"body":"So we'd become sort of less expert in a funny way in that domain."},{"startTime":2699.385,"endTime":2704.494,"body":"So, and you know, of course writing, which had really only been introduced, you know,"},{"startTime":2704.494,"endTime":2709.604,"body":"um, within kind of, um, the, the, the, you know, sort of the Greeks, it"},{"startTime":2709.604,"endTime":2714.714,"body":"wasn't quite living memory, but they were very aware that writing was a relatively new"},{"startTime":2714.714,"endTime":2719.824,"body":"technology that of course they had adapted, um, from the Phoenician and from the Near"},{"startTime":2719.824,"endTime":2720.165,"body":"East."},{"startTime":2720.585,"endTime":2723.765,"body":"And it, and they were aware that there had been a time before writing."},{"startTime":2724.265,"endTime":2729.393,"body":"And so actually for Plato, one of the main threats that Plato and Socrates are"},{"startTime":2729.393,"endTime":2734.521,"body":"thinking about is, you know, what is the threat that writing poses to memory, um,"},{"startTime":2734.521,"endTime":2735.205,"body":"for example."},{"startTime":2735.425,"endTime":2740.753,"body":"And that's not so dissimilar from the, some of the threats that we see, um,"},{"startTime":2740.753,"endTime":2742.885,"body":"computer, um, uh, technology as posing."},{"startTime":2742.945,"endTime":2747.376,"body":"So, you know, I think, I think there are differences, but I think still we"},{"startTime":2747.376,"endTime":2749.445,"body":"can gain perspective, um, from the comparison."},{"startTime":2749.705,"endTime":2749.925,"body":"So"},{"startTime":2749.925,"endTime":2751.885,"body":"If I, I'm gonna put myself in the position."},{"startTime":2751.885,"endTime":2752.165,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2752.325,"endTime":2753.605,"body":"Inverted commas the public."},{"startTime":2753.675,"endTime":2753.965,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2755.405,"endTime":2760.512,"body":"Um, I sat as a member of a, a jury in a people's tribunal looking"},{"startTime":2760.512,"endTime":2762.555,"body":"at forced organ harvesting in China."},{"startTime":2763.135,"endTime":2769.285,"body":"So I knew nothing about it really, but I was receiving evidence from other sources,"},{"startTime":2769.285,"endTime":2772.975,"body":"which I then had to make a judgment about."},{"startTime":2773.845,"endTime":2779.376,"body":"Two things were very relevant in the way that I was able to undertake that"},{"startTime":2779.376,"endTime":2779.745,"body":"role."},{"startTime":2779.805,"endTime":2783.664,"body":"One was time, so I was able to give a con or chose to give"},{"startTime":2783.664,"endTime":2785.465,"body":"a considerable amount of time to it."},{"startTime":2785.805,"endTime":2787.705,"body":"And the second was data."},{"startTime":2788.925,"endTime":2794.447,"body":"So if we, if in our modern world, yeah, if you are asking the public"},{"startTime":2794.447,"endTime":2799.969,"body":"in commas, again to make decisions about important democratic principles, and especially if you are"},{"startTime":2799.969,"endTime":2805.491,"body":"trying to do it through the situations you described as putting them aside to think"},{"startTime":2805.491,"endTime":2810.645,"body":"about it time and the understanding of how data is managed must be critical."},{"startTime":2811.195,"endTime":2811.485,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2811.825,"endTime":2814.885,"body":"And you sort of implied that that was still the case in in yeah."},{"startTime":2815.105,"endTime":2815.925,"body":"In the ancient era."},{"startTime":2816.265,"endTime":2819.965,"body":"How would you apply that principle now?"},{"startTime":2820.195,"endTime":2820.485,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2820.485,"endTime":2821.725,"body":"Well, so I think it's interesting."},{"startTime":2821.725,"endTime":2826.997,"body":"Of course now we have, you know, immense amounts of data, but we feel that"},{"startTime":2826.997,"endTime":2832.27,"body":"we have much less time, um, precisely because of so much data, therefore our attention"},{"startTime":2832.27,"endTime":2833.325,"body":"is actually challenged."},{"startTime":2833.385,"endTime":2838.135,"body":"And so I, I would agree with those scholars who have emphasized that it's really"},{"startTime":2838.135,"endTime":2842.885,"body":"attention, which is the crucial variable and how we cultivate the right kinds of attention."},{"startTime":2843.465,"endTime":2848.183,"body":"But again, that I think picks up on the hedges and foxes, you know, hedge"},{"startTime":2848.183,"endTime":2852.901,"body":"odds and foxes we're able to, you know, pay attention to certain features of their"},{"startTime":2852.901,"endTime":2853.845,"body":"different cognitive styles."},{"startTime":2854.225,"endTime":2858.045,"body":"And again, I think that's exactly what the Greeks were concerned with, with writing."},{"startTime":2858.155,"endTime":2862.647,"body":"They were concerned that, that if we proliferate writing, we may not be able to"},{"startTime":2862.647,"endTime":2864.445,"body":"pay attention to really what matters."},{"startTime":2864.585,"endTime":2870.506,"body":"So in that sense, I think the structural similarity was actually, um, you know, is,"},{"startTime":2870.506,"endTime":2872.085,"body":"is actually recognizable again."},{"startTime":2872.545,"endTime":2877.613,"body":"Um, it's that variable of attention, which really, um, uh, is the, the crucial connection"},{"startTime":2877.613,"endTime":2878.965,"body":"between time and data."},{"startTime":2879.915,"endTime":2885.076,"body":"What do you think the role of essis, which as I understand it, is the"},{"startTime":2885.076,"endTime":2887.485,"body":"acquisition of wisdom, um, in developing expertises?"},{"startTime":2888.065,"endTime":2891.965,"body":"How, how would you place that in the context of importance here?"},{"startTime":2892.585,"endTime":2893.325,"body":"Yes, thank you."},{"startTime":2893.585,"endTime":2902.125,"body":"Um, so, so in Aristotle's terms, um, ESIS is practical wisdom or practical expertise."},{"startTime":2902.425,"endTime":2907.605,"body":"So he would distinguish between what we might call natural scientific knowledge."},{"startTime":2908.145,"endTime":2910.445,"body":"Um, so let's call that natural scientific knowledge."},{"startTime":2910.505,"endTime":2916.752,"body":"And then the kind of expertise, which is what enables you and he would say"},{"startTime":2916.752,"endTime":2920.085,"body":"naturally translates into you doing the thing correctly."},{"startTime":2920.425,"endTime":2924.544,"body":"So it's practical when you have to make a decision about something that you could"},{"startTime":2924.544,"endTime":2927.565,"body":"do one way or you could do in a different way."},{"startTime":2927.665,"endTime":2932.458,"body":"Or the thing could be one way, or it could be in a different way,"},{"startTime":2932.458,"endTime":2937.251,"body":"as opposed to the truths of logic and mathematics that are for Aristotle v the"},{"startTime":2937.251,"endTime":2942.045,"body":"kind of paradigm cases of, um, scientific understanding in, in that sort of natural sciences"},{"startTime":2942.045,"endTime":2942.365,"body":"sense."},{"startTime":2942.985,"endTime":2947.741,"body":"Um, and so one of the things that, that question sort of invites one to"},{"startTime":2947.741,"endTime":2952.497,"body":"talk about is the idea, and this is a nice point 'cause I didn't make"},{"startTime":2952.497,"endTime":2957.253,"body":"this point, that esis in that sense, that kind of expertise always also requires experience"},{"startTime":2957.253,"endTime":2958.205,"body":"and practice, right?"},{"startTime":2958.205,"endTime":2962.062,"body":"So this is another way that you might be able to look at experts and"},{"startTime":2962.062,"endTime":2965.405,"body":"kind of get a sense of whether they know what they're talking about."},{"startTime":2965.695,"endTime":2969.057,"body":"There will be a lot of domains of expertise where you can, you know, the"},{"startTime":2969.057,"endTime":2972.42,"body":"track record question, you can say, well, you know, how did you learn to do"},{"startTime":2972.42,"endTime":2972.645,"body":"that?"},{"startTime":2972.855,"endTime":2974.165,"body":"Where have you practiced it?"},{"startTime":2974.185,"endTime":2976.125,"body":"You know, how did it go when you practiced it?"},{"startTime":2976.625,"endTime":2983.028,"body":"So that that dimension of practice sort of mimicry, um, apprenticeship that whole domain, you"},{"startTime":2983.028,"endTime":2989.005,"body":"know, can be important to, to gaining a number of different domains of expertise."},{"startTime":2989.905,"endTime":2996.395,"body":"Um, we just seen today or yesterday, the closure of one of our daily newspapers."},{"startTime":2997.645,"endTime":3004.405,"body":"And this question really leads on to, um, the importance of scrutiny."},{"startTime":3005.665,"endTime":3012.835,"body":"How should citizens or how could citizens scrutinize experts in a political system that operates"},{"startTime":3012.835,"endTime":3017.615,"body":"through represented democracy as the media fades away in importance?"},{"startTime":3017.635,"endTime":3023.991,"body":"And we are, we are seeing, seeing news, particularly news delivered to us because we're"},{"startTime":3023.991,"endTime":3027.805,"body":"already interested in that topic rather than seeing Yeah."},{"startTime":3027.945,"endTime":3029.005,"body":"Proper criticism."},{"startTime":3029.595,"endTime":3033.641,"body":"Yeah, I mean, so this is a very, um, important question, and this is where"},{"startTime":3033.641,"endTime":3037.687,"body":"I started to just throw out some ideas at the end of the lecture about,"},{"startTime":3037.687,"endTime":3040.925,"body":"you know, are there new kinds of institutions that we could cultivate?"},{"startTime":3040.925,"endTime":3045.607,"body":"So I think it's the questioner is right to suggest, you know, for a long"},{"startTime":3045.607,"endTime":3050.289,"body":"time the answer in effect to how can citizens scrutinize, certainly politics and the scientists"},{"startTime":3050.289,"endTime":3054.972,"body":"who are part of a political process was, you know, well the journalists in a"},{"startTime":3054.972,"endTime":3056.845,"body":"way will do it for us."},{"startTime":3056.945,"endTime":3058.845,"body":"You know, they'll do a lot of the legwork for us."},{"startTime":3058.865,"endTime":3062.708,"body":"So in some sense, it was another kind of expert who was able to do"},{"startTime":3062.708,"endTime":3062.965,"body":"that."},{"startTime":3063.345,"endTime":3068.783,"body":"And, you know, that's still, that's still significant, but because it's vulnerable and under threat,"},{"startTime":3068.783,"endTime":3074.221,"body":"we have to look at, you know, are there ways that citizens themselves or other"},{"startTime":3074.221,"endTime":3077.485,"body":"ways that we can develop those kinds of capacities?"},{"startTime":3077.545,"endTime":3082.216,"body":"And, you know, again, I was talking at the end about citizen scientists in a"},{"startTime":3082.216,"endTime":3084.085,"body":"way helping to crowdsource scientific data."},{"startTime":3084.465,"endTime":3089.77,"body":"But again, we could have citizen cooperatives who, you know, sort through all the data"},{"startTime":3089.77,"endTime":3095.076,"body":"about a, a, a particular expert's performance and raise red flags and the kinds of"},{"startTime":3095.076,"endTime":3096.845,"body":"ways that journalists once did."},{"startTime":3096.945,"endTime":3102.281,"body":"So it may be that, again, we have the data, what we need is the,"},{"startTime":3102.281,"endTime":3107.617,"body":"the time the organization, the attention, the sort of forms of collective engagement to actually"},{"startTime":3107.617,"endTime":3108.685,"body":"engage with it."},{"startTime":3108.745,"endTime":3114.156,"body":"And it is very striking that one of the kind of known ways that you"},{"startTime":3114.156,"endTime":3118.485,"body":"can, um, sort of stymie accountability is just to do data dumping."},{"startTime":3118.585,"endTime":3120.445,"body":"So it's a kind of paradox, right?"},{"startTime":3120.465,"endTime":3124.699,"body":"You say, look, we're giving you all this data here, we're being so transparent, and"},{"startTime":3124.699,"endTime":3128.934,"body":"then you dump all the data and people are so overwhelmed by it that actually"},{"startTime":3128.934,"endTime":3132.605,"body":"that makes the people who dump the data less accountable rather than more."},{"startTime":3132.665,"endTime":3137.319,"body":"So I think it's absolutely right that what we really need to do is focus"},{"startTime":3137.319,"endTime":3141.974,"body":"on this, this issue of attention selection, you know, and then leading to scrutiny and"},{"startTime":3141.974,"endTime":3142.285,"body":"accountability."},{"startTime":3143.265,"endTime":3149.877,"body":"Do you think that groups of experts advance their own group's self-interest, either historically or"},{"startTime":3149.877,"endTime":3154.285,"body":"in the present day to the detriment of wider society?"},{"startTime":3154.305,"endTime":3159.237,"body":"And I, you know, having been part of a group like that where you're trying"},{"startTime":3159.237,"endTime":3164.169,"body":"to exert influence, it's actually quite easy to use the tools of expertise to push"},{"startTime":3164.169,"endTime":3165.485,"body":"people in another direction."},{"startTime":3166.365,"endTime":3166.645,"body":"Absolutely."},{"startTime":3166.665,"endTime":3168.005,"body":"So this is a great question."},{"startTime":3168.075,"endTime":3172.991,"body":"It's again, actually something I'm going to address directly in my final lecture, but I"},{"startTime":3172.991,"endTime":3177.907,"body":"think that's a very real danger, you know, so there, um, one of the, um,"},{"startTime":3177.907,"endTime":3182.824,"body":"founding fathers in the United States, um, said, oh, experts, you know, have no interest"},{"startTime":3182.824,"endTime":3187.085,"body":"of their own, their interest is just the interest of the common good."},{"startTime":3187.465,"endTime":3190.605,"body":"And I think, again, that's too credulous, right?"},{"startTime":3190.945,"endTime":3196.904,"body":"We, we know that, that it's absolutely right that people can cultivate or be led"},{"startTime":3196.904,"endTime":3199.685,"body":"to develop a kind of in-group mentality."},{"startTime":3200.115,"endTime":3203.725,"body":"They can try to defend, you know, their turf as it were."},{"startTime":3204.185,"endTime":3209.353,"body":"Um, they can just, through their specialized training, just inadvertently kind of, you know, come"},{"startTime":3209.353,"endTime":3211.765,"body":"to emphasize some factors and not others."},{"startTime":3212.265,"endTime":3214.205,"body":"So I think that is a very real danger."},{"startTime":3214.335,"endTime":3219.596,"body":"Again, that's why I wanted to emphasize throughout this lecture that we shouldn't allow there"},{"startTime":3219.596,"endTime":3223.805,"body":"to be this kind of stark opposition between experts and everybody else."},{"startTime":3224.145,"endTime":3229.41,"body":"We have to try to break down that walls, but it's very real possibility and,"},{"startTime":3229.41,"endTime":3234.676,"body":"and reality that sometimes people throw up those walls and then you need to work"},{"startTime":3234.676,"endTime":3237.485,"body":"harder, um, to, to, um, to dismantle them."},{"startTime":3238.225,"endTime":3242.766,"body":"Uh, well, you welcome, um, the question on a previous occasion from me about Egypt"},{"startTime":3242.766,"endTime":3247.005,"body":"in connection with Aon, AMEA and omi and the more traditional forms of wisdom."},{"startTime":3247.105,"endTime":3252.388,"body":"But the question about wisdom prompts me to ask about a completely different scenario where,"},{"startTime":3252.388,"endTime":3257.672,"body":"um, the wisdom of Egypt, um, uh, with animal gods and local gods and la"},{"startTime":3257.672,"endTime":3262.956,"body":"lady gods are sort of pluralistic wisdom, um, but a traditionalist, um, ideal rather than"},{"startTime":3262.956,"endTime":3264.365,"body":"an obsessing about democracy."},{"startTime":3264.605,"endTime":3269.233,"body":"I mean, after all, the Egyptians did last for 3000 years more than any other"},{"startTime":3269.233,"endTime":3273.862,"body":"civilization, including the Chinese and the, and the in practice, the Greeks were very unsuccessful"},{"startTime":3273.862,"endTime":3277.565,"body":"indeed, um, in terms of killing each other and, and so on."},{"startTime":3277.565,"endTime":3281.365,"body":"If it weren't for the Romans, uh, I don't think Greek culture would've survived."},{"startTime":3281.835,"endTime":3283.325,"body":"Yeah, tha thank you very much."},{"startTime":3283.435,"endTime":3288.339,"body":"It's, it's absolutely, and, and I may have said on the previous occasion also, I"},{"startTime":3288.339,"endTime":3293.243,"body":"think many of the Greeks, you know, including in Plato's own writings, really recognized that"},{"startTime":3293.243,"endTime":3295.205,"body":"longevity of Egyptian sit, um, civilization."},{"startTime":3295.475,"endTime":3300.313,"body":"They recognized that there was, you know, expertise that they had developed in terms of"},{"startTime":3300.313,"endTime":3305.152,"body":"how to manage the Nile and so sort of cultivate agriculture that enabled them to"},{"startTime":3305.152,"endTime":3306.765,"body":"have a very large population."},{"startTime":3307.115,"endTime":3313.691,"body":"They recognized Egyptian writing and actually Egyptian medical practice, um, is something that Plato talks"},{"startTime":3313.691,"endTime":3315.445,"body":"about, um, very directly."},{"startTime":3316.025,"endTime":3317.845,"body":"So, you know, I absolutely take that point."},{"startTime":3317.925,"endTime":3322.177,"body":"I think the other thing that is interesting to comment on is that, you know,"},{"startTime":3322.177,"endTime":3324.445,"body":"what about religious wisdom, as it were, right?"},{"startTime":3324.505,"endTime":3329.431,"body":"So this is the wisdom of priests, um, who ha who, you know, claim to"},{"startTime":3329.431,"endTime":3333.045,"body":"have a special kind of channel and antiquity to the divine."},{"startTime":3333.045,"endTime":3339.011,"body":"And that was something common to, um, ancient Egypt and to, um, ancient Greek, um,"},{"startTime":3339.011,"endTime":3340.205,"body":"cultures as well."},{"startTime":3340.705,"endTime":3345.409,"body":"And that's another kind of example of, of expertise that again, Plato and Socrates would"},{"startTime":3345.409,"endTime":3347.605,"body":"say, but we should test that, right?"},{"startTime":3347.625,"endTime":3350.165,"body":"We shouldn't just sort of bow down before it."},{"startTime":3350.505,"endTime":3351.885,"body":"So I, you know, I take your point."},{"startTime":3352.085,"endTime":3355.766,"body":"I think there are many ways in which, um, you know, ancient Egypt gives us,"},{"startTime":3355.766,"endTime":3357.485,"body":"gives us a lot to think about."},{"startTime":3357.665,"endTime":3359.525,"body":"Um, in these, in these respects,"},{"startTime":3360.065,"endTime":3363.682,"body":"All you've just talked about is that, is the balance in a way between belief"},{"startTime":3363.682,"endTime":3364.165,"body":"and science."},{"startTime":3364.965,"endTime":3369.515,"body":"'cause to me, science means is, is this replicable?"},{"startTime":3370.015,"endTime":3372.275,"body":"If it can be done twice, it probably true."},{"startTime":3372.335,"endTime":3375.955,"body":"If it can be done three times, it's more likely to be true than before."},{"startTime":3376.065,"endTime":3376.355,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":3376.615,"endTime":3379.035,"body":"But if you can't replicate it, it doesn't really exist."},{"startTime":3379.735,"endTime":3386.915,"body":"So the problem of belief versus science in the context you described is quite important"},{"startTime":3386.915,"endTime":3394.096,"body":"because what, um, a good rhetorician might do is persuade rather than actually tell the"},{"startTime":3394.096,"endTime":3394.575,"body":"truth."},{"startTime":3395.665,"endTime":3395.885,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3396.045,"endTime":3399.175,"body":"I mean, this is, so, this answer I think opens two large a set of"},{"startTime":3399.175,"endTime":3400.845,"body":"questions for us to be able to discuss."},{"startTime":3400.945,"endTime":3406.21,"body":"Now, at the end of the lecture, I mean, some sociologists of religion would say,"},{"startTime":3406.21,"endTime":3411.125,"body":"you know, for many religious believers, many experiences that come with religion are replicable."},{"startTime":3411.185,"endTime":3413.485,"body":"The feeling of community, the sense of hope."},{"startTime":3413.865,"endTime":3419.496,"body":"So I don't think we wanna make a kind of, you know, um, discrediting analysis"},{"startTime":3419.496,"endTime":3422.125,"body":"of religious belief compared to scientific belief."},{"startTime":3422.225,"endTime":3427.525,"body":"But the que the question of rep replicability, as I said, sort of testability replicability."},{"startTime":3428.045,"endTime":3431.725,"body":"I think that is central, um, to the modern, um, scientific method."},{"startTime":3432.195,"endTime":3436.262,"body":"Melissa, thank you very much for yet another brilliant lecture, and we look forward to"},{"startTime":3436.262,"endTime":3439.245,"body":"your last one of this year on the 13th of June."},{"startTime":3439.245,"endTime":3441.765,"body":"Ladies and gentlemen, professor Melissa here, thank."}]}