This lecture considers the economic impact of climate change on and by the largest "emerging markets" of the G20, such as China, India and Brazil. Simply stabilising emissions in these countries would make a greater contribution to reducing warming as an 80% emissions reduction in Western countries. The carbon intensity of economic development in the emerging markets are also first-order determinants of the likelihood of dangerous climate change in the coming century. The lecture addresses how the economic structure of the problem leads to particular strategic dynamics within the international negotiations, explaining the current impasse and also exploring the possibility for a "low-carbon race" between nations to develop cleaner technology.
This is a part of the 2011 City of London Festival.