This week I talk about the Monte Carlo analysis and its important role in planning. 

Citations and Links 

Portfolio Visualizer: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation#analysisResults 

 To run the analysis I discuss in the episode, you will just need to enter the asset allocation, it defaults to a $1,000,000 starting balance with $45,000 withdrawals over a 30-year period.  The asset allocation I ran: 

Asset 1 - "US Stock Market" 70%; Asset 2 - "Total US Bond Market" 30%.  Once entered, hit "Run Simulation". 

Monte Carlo fat-tail analysis: https://www.kitces.com/blog/monte-carlo-analysis-risk-fat-tails-vs-safe-withdrawal-rates-rolling-historical-returns/ 

Monte Carlo Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method 

 This week we will talk about the temptation to skip out on investments in favor of cash. 

In this episode, a few thoughts on the invasion of Ukraine, and Part 2 of how to keep the internet from ruining your financial life.

Resources for online security:

Google Tips: https://safety.google/security/security-tips/

Federal Trade Commission Tips: https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-avoid-scam

Ad Fontes Media Bias Chart: https://adfontesmedia.com/static-mbc/?utm_source=HomePage_StaticMBC_Image&utm_medium=OnWebSite_Link

Lengthy list of heuristics and cognitive biases we're susceptible to: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases

"Scammer Payback" YouTube channel (For your amusement only. Please never try to replicate what he does. Mild language warning): https://www.youtube.com/c/ScammerPayback 

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp

https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/gdp

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/qgdpstate0621.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/business/oil-prices-opec.html

Join me as I discuss six digital pitfalls we face in our journey to financial well-being.  This episode covers the first three: (1) Beware the Algorithmic Mirror, (2) Clicks get Money, and (3) Easy on the Cryptos!

What IS a Roth IRA conversion?  Who should consider converting their Roth?  Is it the same thing as the “Mega Backdoor Roth Conversion”?  This week I interview my colleague, Tom Rasmussen, CFP®, who helps me answer these questions and more!   

More information about Tom: https://cfbhfg.com/team-member/tom-rasmussen-cfp/

This episode will address the correction and market volatility we're currently seeing.

Resources:

• Sequence of Returns Risk/Sequence Risk - (click here) 
• S&P 500 Averages - (click here)  
• SPY Data including Standard Deviation - (click here)
• Calculating Standard Deviation - (click here)
• Sector Overlay Char 2020 - (click here) 

The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor.  Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you.  Clients of Prime Wealth Management, an HFG Trust Company, may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

In this episode  I cover an important but straight forward topic of... retirement (or as I like to call it, "The Switch").  Going from living off a paycheck from your employer to living off a paycheck from your investments and social security is, procedurally, a pretty straight forward change.  But when you’ve spent 30 to 40 years pumping hard-earned money into that investment account, it shouldn’t be any surprise some people have difficulty rewiring their brain to accept this reversal of money movement—a.k.a. flipping that switch to retirement mode.   

The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor.  Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you.  Clients of Prime Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. 

This episode addresses the increasingly relevant question of whether or not Financial Advisors are even necessary these days?  The second half of the episode then dives into the different types of professionals who may carry the Financial Advisor title.

I use the terms "Financial Advisor" and "Financial Planner" somewhat interchangeably for the purposes of this episode, but there can most certainly be differences.  My colleague, Investopedia, can explain further:   https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/040215/financial-advisor-vs-financial-planner.asp 

The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor.  Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you.  Clients of Prime Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

Welcome to my inaugural episode!  Today I'll be discussing three general categories (and sub-categories) of retirement investors and some of the pitfalls they may experience.  This is my first go at it, so please provide feedback if you're so inclined!  I can be reached at nhengl@hfgtrust.com

I reference a few studies on behavioral investing which can be found below:

DALBAR Study: https://www.dalbar.com/ProductsAndServices/QAIB

M. Roszkowski, G. Davey. (2010). "Risk Perception and Risk Tolerance Changes Attributable to the 2008 Economic Crisis: A Subtle but Critical Difference".  Journal of Financial Service Professionals.

R. Yao, S.D. Hanna, S. Lindamood. (2016). "Changes in Financial Risk Tolerance, 1983-2001." Financial Services Review.

The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor.  Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you.  Clients of Prime Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.