THIS Could Change Everything For The Habs!

The NHL salary cap is about to EXPLODE—and it could change EVERYTHING for the Montreal Canadiens.

With league revenues hitting new highs, the cap is projected to rise significantly over the next few seasons. But what does that actually mean for the Habs? And how does it reshape the entire NHL landscape?

In this episode, Shaun Starr and Marco D’Amico break down:

•  How rising NHL revenues are driving the salary cap up 
•  What a higher cap means for the Canadiens’ rebuild 
•  Why Montreal is in a prime position to SPEND 
•  The gap between rich vs. budget teams—and how it could widen 
•  How Kent Hughes can weaponize cap space to accelerate the rebuild 

The Canadiens are one of the best-positioned teams in the NHL financially… but will they take advantage?

This is a must-watch if you want to understand where the Habs—and the league—are heading next.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

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SPEAKER_01 2:05

All I'm thinking about is chicken tenders.

SPEAKER_02 2:08

Let's go. I know what's the last I mean I know you you like to go balls to the wall with the hot sauce. I'm just curious. Uh, are you gonna scale them back or are you ready to maybe level up maybe with because they have so many options?

SPEAKER_01 2:20

Uh I may need to be uh functional when I get home after that. So um maybe you're just gonna go with the 911 sauce and call it a day. Somebody call 911.

SPEAKER_02 2:32

Oh god. Oh, yes, let's break it down. Uh speaking of breaking it down, brother. Um, do are we getting the Professor D'Amico uh hat back on today? Because we're going yes, here he goes. He's he's going back and uh he is busted out, taking off the starring D'Amico hat. And Professor D'Amico is back in the building, y'all. You know what that means. Dun dun dun. It's time for math, it's time to talk about numbers, it's time to talk about NHL revenue, Marco, and how it relates to the salary cap. And then the other layer is what does that mean for the Montreal Canadian? So let's talk about NHL revenue as it reflects towards the NHL salary cap coming up.

SPEAKER_01 3:11

Yeah, so uh projected NHL revenue for this season is about eight billion dollars, which is insane, massive for the league considering where it's been. And why is that important? Well, eight billion dollars of revenue is split 50-50 between ownership and the players, so four billion basically for the players divided by 32 teams makes 125 million per team. So, based on the way that the NHL normally calculates the salary cap, that means that if all things were equal and they hadn't just you know five years ago gone through a pretty traumatic fiscal event, which was COVID, uh, we'd be looking at a salary cap for next year much closer to 120 million rather than 104 million. And word on the street, and especially around teams considered to be smaller market or at least smaller output teams. So I'm thinking the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Ottawa Senators, the New Jersey Devils, um, you know, and the list goes on, you know, just smaller market teams, um, or you know, smaller revenue teams. How's about that? Those teams are sweating it right now, Sean, because the salary cap generally must follow the ex you know, the significant rise in uh in revenue, and a lot of that revenue is coming from TV deals, large market, uh you know, large markets like Montreal, Toronto, New York, uh, Boston, you name it. Oh wow. Yeah, that was awesome. Boston, Boston, Boston, um, and and so on and so forth. Uh Chicago is another one. Um so with those teams now, you know, really kind of revving up the the production and and and and the revenue being what it is, the salary cap is going to go up, and it may go up much faster than what we initially projected. And that has a lot of small market teams sweating, and it has a lot of big market teams salivating. Um, for the Montreal Canadians, because obviously Montreal Canadians podcast, this has a dual effect. On the one end, Sean, their core outside of Ivan Demidoff, and we'll get to that in tomorrow's video, but outside of Ivan Demidov, their core is signed long-term to ridiculously reasonable contracts, and that for I believe Suzuki's is the first deal to expire in five years.

SPEAKER_02 5:47

Yeah, 2030, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 5:49

Exactly. So that is quite a ways away, and the Canadians find themselves in a really strong fiscal situation. So, why does this hurt small market teams? First off, a lot of these, a lot of these teams aren't going to be able to keep up spending to the cap, they're gonna have internal caps like we had prior to COVID hitting, where teams just didn't want to go over a certain number, ownership just didn't let them go over a certain number. And you remember, this is the case, for example, with Columbus. You know, one team I look at that this could potentially impact on a serious level is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils seem to be caught in that tri-state area as the third man in the pecking order behind the New York Rangers and the New York Islanders. Unfortunately, that may be problematic for the Devils, especially in their quest to reunite all three Hughes brothers. Um, so it creates it may create some decision making based on that. Um, you know, another team, Columbus, for example, they have a very big contract negotiation coming up with Adam Fantilli, the franchise center on that team. So, you know, how is that going to evolve? And so what we're hearing is that this may start pushing star players out of small market teams, which is which was the fear of the salary uh of getting away from the salary cap in the first place. That's what caused the 2012-2013 lockout, is they felt like contracts were getting out of control and star players were just signing for anything. Uh, look at, for example, the contract signed by Ilia Kovalchuk back then, where it was like 17 years at 110 million or something like that. So that's what they're trying to avoid right now. Small market teams are sweating it, but for all intents and purposes, the salary cap was projected to go to 105, 104 million next season, 26-27, and then 114 million in 27-28. Uh, and then you know, rough estimates have 123 million for the uh 28-29 season. I'm willing to bet that the 28-29 season is going to be closer to 130 million at this stage, and if that happens, yes, it may hurt small market teams, but Sean, teams that properly invested their money right now on long-term contracts for players that haven't or are about to hit their prime are going to look mighty smart.

SPEAKER_02 8:23

To that end, you talk about the smart money being spent, right? I mean, the let's let's just talk about the core force Suzuki, Caulfield, Slavkowski, 2030, 2031, 2033. Um go to the uh to the defensive side, noah Dops until 2033, Caden Gooley to 2031, Mike Mathison the same year, Lane Hudson comes in next at 2034, right? So you talk about smart money spent, smart navigation through contracts, players willing to buy into the environment and understanding, you know, what in this specific example the Montreal Canadians are doing, but how beneficial of a spot are the Canadians in when we talk about the contracts that are one year away from expiring? Gallagher, Dano, Anderson, next year will be their UFA year. Patrick Line will be a UFA after this year. Marco, there's there's four guys that free up a bleep ton of money for the Canadians. Does that put them in a strong, advantageous position?

SPEAKER_01 9:19

Yes. Well, for this summer, the Canadians have a projected$13 million of salary cap space. Um, but already having 20 of 23 men signed for next season. So it's not like they have many players to sign. It's Kirby Doc, we'll see if he's qualified. Zachary Balzik, that he's not gonna break bank. Uh Arbor Jacke, we'll see what the Canadians' plans are in that regard.

SPEAKER_02 9:42

Joe Joe Voleno, I guess, would be another one, but who knows?

SPEAKER_01 9:45

Joe Voleno will see what the Canadians want to do. But as you can see, not uh top of the lineup player. No, Caden Gooley signed long term, like the top four is signed long term. Um, the top six out of Ivan Demidov, you know, pretty much locked in. Um, so it will be very interesting to see how they move ahead. But what I think and what I look at is the summer of 2027. 2027, the Canadians are projected to have 54 million dollars in cap space.

SPEAKER_00 10:16

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 10:17

That to me, that that period of time, the 2026-2027 like season and into that summer is where I think the rise in the salary cap and what we're seeing from the revenue share is what's going to give the Canadians the green light to go out and spend in the same way that they were given the green light to go out and get Noah Dobson and sign him to 9.5. I feel like that I don't think they're gonna splurge in the sense that they're gonna go out and get a$15 million player, but they've put themselves in a situation now where they have that flexibility where they could add in season and they could add a you know, they could add a bigger name player. I think that's where you know the Canadians are are at right now, where they can just progressively continue to add to their lineup as they go about. And this is a little this is kind of where I'm I'm I'm bringing it here is that a team like Montreal that has Suzuki, Caulfield, Slavkowski, Dobson, Matheson, Hudson all signed, and you factor in all those salaries and you're just under 50 million, or you're just at 50 million, it's it's an incredible feat from Kent Hughes because they are now locked in, and you could spend the other 54 million on the rest of the lineup and really kind of build out what I feel has been hurting them is that they're you know, the depth to that to this team, the bottom six, the bottom pair, building that out with you know, maybe guys that you would deemed slightly overpaid, but elite players at that position. I think that's what the getting their star players and their core signed long term to really team-friendly contracts, especially with the cap going up now. They're gonna be able to be picky and add those kinds of players as they go about. I think they still have to settle a couple of things. Second line center, uh, top four right shot defensemen. Are those gonna be internal with you know David Reinbacker and Michael Hage? Are they gonna look externally? It time will tell, but they have the options now because they either have the assets to make that trade. The players internally they could potentially take those spots, or uh the cap space if they need to go out and sign it. There's one downside, one wrinkle right now to all of this cap space being available. There are no free agents worthy of signing those contracts outside of maybe one or two, because with this rising cap space, you don't really get to free agency. What a team and what the Canadians have done so far, and what a team is gonna have to do, is before that player even reaches free agency status, you would have to swoop in to trade for them and extend them on the spot, as opposed to letting them get to free agency and having to get into a a bidding war, which is what they did with Dobson, for example.

SPEAKER_02 13:16

And why wouldn't the Canadians be in a position like that? I mean, it's just now we're speculating, now it's just an opinion. You know, if we're if we're looking towards, you know, two seasons from now, when we talk about and we drop the names of the guys that that will go into their contract years next year and become UFAs if the Canadians have no designs, and I'd I'd be shocked if they did. If we're talking about these pending UFAs, uh come the 2027-2028 season and Gallagher and Dano and Josh Anderson. Um being very difficult for me to see actually any three of those guys back. That the Montreal Canadians and their competitive window, wouldn't they be primed to be in that business of doing exactly what you just talked about? Making a sign and trade type of transaction based on where we think they're gonna be. I mean, they might be in the business of doing exactly that as they contend for an Eastern Conference and hopefully a Stanley Cup final appearance.

SPEAKER_01 14:08

Yeah, I think they're getting there, right? You know, yeah, by that point, Jacob Fowler will probably be 23. Uh Ivan Demidov will see what his contract structure looks like, but I don't think, like many, I don't think that they're necessarily going to break bank uh on that contract. Um, you know, and I think above all, it's also the team culture. They're always taking less for the next guy, but I don't feel like that's a mindset that's suddenly gonna stop, for example, once Suzuki's contract is up. That's the difference. Suzuki probably gonna be worth closer to 14-15 million at the time of you know the contracts expiry. You know, does he turn around and say, I'll take 12, I'll take 13 as as you continue that cycle? Because that's the thing, is the Canadians are gonna be in their window just as Suzuki's contract is coming to an end and then he's gonna be with right? He's not like an old man player, old old man Nick gonna be 30 years old. Um, but yeah, that's exactly the point. So if you have that kind of flexibility, the Canadians can not only on one end feel secure in locking down their core because this is a core that has consistently shown a desire to stick together and a desire to win together and to take less together. But on the other side, it opens themselves up to all kinds of fiscal possibilities where they can spend money on certain players. Like there are good bottom six players that become available at you know, as of July 1st, that the Canadians could throw some money at instead of you know having to look around and wonder who's gonna be in your bottom six, having guys that are not only really strong bottom six players but could then jump into your jump up in the line of a case of injury. That's what I think where the Canadians are looking at. Or, you know, a a camp miss shut down defenseman that you you put on you staple on your third pair to solidify and you know crease clear and be physical on the you know along the boards. Those are the kinds of guys that are available that wouldn't have necessarily signed in Montreal prior to this season. Well, you see the way that the Canadians are playing this season, it's very um up and down, obviously, because of you know the inexperience and whatnot, but the project pardon me, the projection is so so high for this team because the elite pieces that they require are there, so you just need to fill out that roster. And having that kind of physical flexibility, we've seen it through other championship winning teams. The moment you have that flexibility, you can fill out your roster with what you need. You look at, for example, the Chicago Blackhawks or the Boston Bruins of the 2010s. Why were they so successful? They locked in their core. In the Blackhawks case, uh Dale Talon tried to lock up all the core, but it almost didn't, it didn't work out with the qualifying facts machine, fax machine. Exactly. But you lock in your core and then you can spend around it. Like, I don't think that the Chicago Blackhawks would have been able to go and get Marion Hosa if they hadn't already set up shop at home with with the Duncan Keith's, the Patrick Keynes, the Jonathan Tays, uh, the Christopher Steagues at that time, etc. etc. So I feel like that's exactly where the Canadians are right now is they're they're they've set up their core and then they're going to start adding. And the fact that the cap is rising just as that's about to happen for them, I feel not only opens their window, you know, to a higher degree in a year or two from now, but it'll probably extend the length of that window accordingly, based on the way that Kent Hughes has gone about building up their structure uh for salary.

SPEAKER_02 17:57

As Marco talks about the core, um, the core that's signed under contract. Make sure you're with us tomorrow as we talk about a guy that's many, many people, no reason to doubt it, Ivan Demidov uh will be a part of that core, you know, if and when. We'll see. We'll talk about the contract and potentially what that looks like in the season that he's having. So make sure you subscribe, hit that notification bell so you get an alert as soon as uh tomorrow's video um is uploaded as we get into Ivan Demidov. But I guess just to wrap up this part of the conversation, Marco, it seems like if we think about the NHL in like a small body of water, and as you alluded to earlier, the little minnows swimming around, the the less spending teams of the National Hockey League, maybe sweating the dramatic rise in salary cap, the Montreal Canadians are big sharks in a small body of water. I mean, it it just I guess to summarize, seems like a very advantageous overall for the Montreal Canadians that if they want to be predatory and try to you know pick apart some players that they think fits their system and that they have an educated guess to believe that those guys can't fit under those poorer teams' salary structure. I mean, the Montreal Canadians have the wherewithal to strike at any time.

SPEAKER_01 19:08

Exactly. And I think there's there's other teams now that are gonna be put to the test. You look at Chicago, they got some really big contracts to sign this summer, notwithstanding a guy like Connor Bedard. Yeah, you look at San Jose, you know, Will Smith and Macklin Celebrini are gonna be up for new deals. That's what's gonna determine their rebuild, the their salary structure. Because if those guys break bank and then everyone subsequently tries, you know, to sign for new extensions, it could create a Toronto Maple Leafs kind of situation, though. Granted, uh that was significantly hampered by COVID and a flat cap. But if projections would have continued, the Leafs wouldn't have been in as much trouble as they were in the early 2020s. Well, you have a lot of teams in their rebuilds that are about to enter that situation. I'll also throw in the Anaheim Ducks. The Anaheim Ducks are in a crunch situation with Leo Carlson and uh and Cutter Gaultier up for new deals. Like those are big contracts that are about to get signed there. So that to me, those types of deals are going to be the make or break of rebuilds. It's one thing to to draft these guys, but then to get them under contract at a good number is what's, in my opinion, makes the difference between a team that drafted well and a team that built for a championship. And I feel like that therein lies the big difference for me when I look at the Montreal Canadians, is that although they still have ways to go, as they're building it, it's very much the blueprint of what successful teams have done in the salary cap era.

SPEAKER_02 20:46

Uh, there's Marco DeMico. I'm Sean Starr. Thanks so much for being with us. As always, we proud pride ourselves on uh being partners with uh great local Montreal-based businesses, cheapest t-shirts.com, instacustoms.com, the best in home security at Cabletel, affordable state-of-the-art technology to protect your home. And of course, uh the spot before and after every game, every major sporting event, none better than McLean's Pub on Peel. It's the real deal on Peel. Marco and I will be there Sunday afternoon, starting at four o'clock for a live presentation. We hope to see you there. Marco, thanks as always, brother. We'll see you tomorrow.

SPEAKER_01 21:20

Always a pleasure, guys.