Stocks will go CRAZY Tomorrow + Stock Market News 20 May 2024

Discover how to navigate the twists and turns of the stock market with our latest market analysis. We tackle the current bullish signals and sift through market resistance levels, diving straight into the heart of what makes the financial world tick. This week, NVIDIA's earnings report could be the game-changer investors are watching for. We’ll also guide you through understanding the market dynamics, as I share a live trading session with a strategy even the pros swear by. It's all about staying ahead, and that means being equipped with insights that can pivot your investment decisions from mere guesses to strategic moves.

Embark on a journey through the intricate maze of global finance as we analyze the ripple effects of Iranian politics on oil prices and what the recent incident involving their president means for the international scene. Closer to home, we unpack the Federal Reserve's subtle hints at future monetary policies. These financial titans' speeches have Wall Street analysts on the edge of their seats, but I'm here to translate their economic jargon into actionable knowledge. Plus, I’ll break down the proposed acceleration of stock settlement periods and what that means for your trades. When it comes to understanding the pulse of the market and the machinations of monetary policy, consider this your VIP pass to the inside track.

Transcript

Weekly Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

Speaker 1 0:02

I think we're finally live , aren't we ? Yes , brilliant . I don't know why the heck that happened . Youtube said there was a stream on and it wasn't on and you couldn't see me . I was talking to myself and I thought I was sounding very intelligent with what I was saying . All righty , let's get cracking .

Speaker 1 0:19

I appreciate you tuning in Big week this week . I was a bit worried at the end of last week . I thought we might be hitting a ceiling here , but the data , the market positioning , has changed over the weekend and I want you to understand it . So you are the best informed investor out there . So I'm going to run you through that . I'm going to explain that to you . Of course , we'll also look at NVIDIA , and the big things happening this week will answer all your questions . All you've got to do is smash the you-know-what and let me share my screen with you here and just double-check that you are actually here . Okay , brilliant , all right , there we are . We finally managed to find ourselves in the same spot , which is good , so I appreciate you hanging around for a bit of a tech glitch , you know , just to make life a little bit more interesting .

Speaker 1 1:05

Okay , one thing I'm running a live trading session tomorrow ? Why ? Because there are a lot of people out there who don't understand how the money market really works . They don't really understand how we can trade in an almost fully automated way in a couple of hours a week and potentially make very , very nice returns Like we did 20 , 22 , 126% last year , 105% return on capital employed and I'm promising you about 90 minutes of teaching you the strategy that I use every week that we've taught thousands of people that hedge funds use , and it's way , way simpler than you think . And once you understand this you'll be like , hey , that's what they do . That kind of makes sense . So come and join me Felix Rensenhoek's webinar tomorrow , live and we'll have some fun .

Speaker 1 1:54

Now a couple of things that are happening this week that are big . Fed Chair Powell speaking yesterday was a bit of a non-event , didn't really say much . Got Paolo Alto reporting today . It was a bit of a non-event , didn't really say much . Got Paolo Alto reporting today . If you're into cybersecurity , macy's tomorrow , lowe's tomorrow that's going to be a big indicator on . Is the US consumer heading for the darkness , the misery , or do they still have a little bit of gas left in the tank here ? Yellen also speaking Not sure if that's going to be that relevant . We'll see if she talks about debt and then Wednesday target . So again , more consumer data . And then , of course , the big one , nvidia earnings on Wednesday . That's the event that's going to make or break this week in this rally .

Speaker 1 2:41

Now I will put out a full video on that just before , probably tonight , and walk you through the actual numbers , because there's a couple of things that are really important in terms of trend here . But in a nutshell , I am expecting them to beat , just not as much as in the past , and then , just to make Wednesday a little bit more interesting , we get the FOMC minutes out from the Fed and that tells you how did those Fed presidents vote at the last minute ? How hawkish , how dovish have they turned ? That's going to be really , really important . Jobs data Thursday we always get that and then we get into this here the cool wall moved up . What the heck does that mean ? Moved up , what the heck does that mean ? So there is something in the market that is essentially the positioning of the market , and last week that was at 5,300 . And we hit it twice and we closed just above it at 5,383 . So it's a spot on call there . On the resistance .

Speaker 1 3:48

Now I was a bit worried because last week , which was the third Friday of the month , lots of options expired . It's like one of the biggest options events of each month and then typically after that the markets become a bit more volatile . So it could go up more , it could go down more and I was thinking , well , what if you go down a bit more ? But the market gods that are the market makers and so on , seem to be positioning now at 5,400 . So we now have potentially 100 points upside here and that's very , very bad , very , very bullish , even right . We like that a lot and you can follow that kind of data if you go into options watch and you can open the visualizer here . You could look at SPX , which is the S&P , and then you can see for when she loads .

Speaker 1 4:44

Let me zoom out a little bit here . You can see for each day in green here the resistance and where it starts to come in . So 5,325 a bit , but then it starts to move up to 5,400 . And if you go out to the end of the week , 5,400 is now the biggest little knob that we've got there . Go to the end of the month . 5,400 is now the biggest little nop that we've got there . Go to the end of the month . There it is a bit more clear . Right , 5,400 . So the market has shifted up . The market is feeling more positive and bullish , which , of course , is glorious and it's important to understand .

Speaker 1 5:21

Let me just find when did you go . There's a little window here . There we go . Let me just find when did you go . There's a little window here . There we go . Most of you are still stuck in the other . I did close the other channel and redirected them over here , so hopefully people will find their way over here . If you do find your way over here , smash the like button and they'll know that you're here . So , yeah , brilliant .

Speaker 1 5:49

Let's dive a little deeper , then , into what else we've got going on here . So , pre-market , we're looking pretty good . Amazon's up a poor percent , tesla's up a percent and a half . Amazon's in the green Berkshire , jp Morgan's green , amd is green . So why the heck is NVIDIA down two percentage points ? Well , what do you do when something really risky is about to happen ? Do you try to avoid the risk or do you go ? Yay , I love risk . Most people will swerve around it slightly , and that's exactly what we're seeing here swerve around it slightly and that's exactly what we're seeing here .

Speaker 1 6:28

Two days before earnings , massive move expected about 100 points up or down . And again you can see that in options watch . Just type in NVIDIA and zoom out a little bit . This thing moves so bloody much it's hard to keep it on a chart . And you see that blue box here , that one there in the background . I've drawn it in here as well . So that's the expected range for NVIDIA stock this week , which is quite a lot , right Up $100 , down $100 , basically , and that's pretty monumental and therefore people are going .

Speaker 1 7:07

I don't really want to be part of the roller coaster . I've made a lot of money on the way up . Why don't I take some profits off here , wait and see what happens and then maybe rejoin the party on Thursday ? That's honestly a smart move . You could also hedge your position so you could just say buy a put option , I'll protect you , but that would cost you a bit of money . So somewhere down here it still costs you like $1,000 or something like that . If this is going to be really , really dreadful , then you would make money that would help to protect you , but for most people probably just de-risking is the simplest strategy right here right now .

Speaker 1 7:51

I see your questions , chaps . Ian loves risk . Okay , well , not everybody does . Generally speaking , it's probably not the best place , generally speaking , de-risk . So I trade , right .

Speaker 1 8:09

What do I do when I trade ? I look for the lowest risk , highest reward rate . I don't look for the multi-bagger . I look for the consistent , boring small profits , again and again and again and again , that I can replicate . I don't look for the like God , that thing could make me a gazillionaire . I might see those occasionally and put $100 or $1,000 or something . If it gets wiped out it doesn't really matter . But for the majority of trades , 98% of what I do is like it's boring . It's really boring and that's what you want . That's how you make money , you know you . You want a reliable income , right ? You want a reliable income stream . You don't really want to go to this casino . At least , if you want to go to the casino , you probably shouldn't be trading . Let me know any questions you have Put them in the chat here and , of course , do come and join the live trading session tomorrow .

Speaker 1 9:12

There it is . Felixfrenzorg slash training , and it's completely free of charge . Helix Trends at all slash training and it's completely free of charge . You don't need to know a thing you don't even need to have a brokerage account if you don't want to . If you already do trade , I think you'll get a lot out of it . If you've never traded before , I think you're going to get a ton out of it . So come and join us over there .

Fed Speeches, Iranian Politics, Wall Street

Speaker 1 9:36

In terms of what's what's happening today , a lot of the Fed boy band is on the road . Five Fed speeches today and then another four , five , six , seven tomorrow , which is just madness , and they will probably try and talk the market down a little bit . They come out a little bit , you know , puff their chest and go . Well , we're going to be going to be a little bit conservative here . Puff their chest and go . Well , we're going to be a little bit conservative here . But the clue will be in the Fed minutes on Wednesday and we'll see what they say .

Speaker 1 10:05

Iran , iranian's president is dead , died in a helicopter crash . Now , before somebody screams , oh my God , this is the end of the world and World War Three coming , and so on , think this through . This is not the guy who runs Iranian foreign policy . Their president is not the head of the country . There is a supreme leader above that . Generally speaking , when leaders are supreme . You know you're in a basket case , but so it's kind of like president , supreme leader , and yes , this president was in the running to become the next supreme leader . So that's kind of an interesting story . But the guy who he was going to run against is the son of the current supreme leader . So if you're looking for somebody who's fiddled with the brake pads , then it's possibly that other guy , rather than Israel or something like that .

Speaker 1 11:00

So markets seem calm about it . Oil hasn't exploded , which is generally a pretty good indicator of madness in the Middle East . Oil is actually down at $79 here today . So I don't think this is as big a story as people make it out to be . Most of us don't particularly care about Iran's domestic politics , right ? Not really a big issue for us , so I wouldn't really give this too much attention here . Fed Bar , one of the ones talking here . He thinks we should hold rates steady . Okay , that's better than saying they should go up Wall Street . If you've seen this , they're going to settle stocks faster . What does that mean ? At the moment , when you buy a stock , you don't actually own it for two days . Seriously , that's the settlement period and they're going to cut that down to one day , so it's going to get a bit quicker . I still don't understand why it takes a whole freaking day . I think they should do it in a second . But you know small steps and all that kind of thing . I think those are basically the big stories there from Wall Street .