FELIX PREHN DAILY MARKET NEWS By Goat Academy

Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 14 April 2025 (Goat Academy)

• Felix Prehn

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Speaker 1:

Hey, alex here, and welcome to this pre-market live stream. If you're an investor and you're worried about should I buy, should I sell, this is the video for you. I'm going to walk you through the following seven points. One, are the tariff exemptions real or did they just get repealed? Two, are you prepared for robotics Big big topic? And then I'll show you the opportunity to retire better, retire earlier, because right now there is a huge opportunity. I'll show you what I'm buying today, what to watch for this week that's number five, my biggest lesson so far. That's number six, seven, and I'll share my screen with you here. Where is it? Uh, there is, as you can see, the points that we have here tariff exemptions, understood, robotics are you ready? And what the big opportunity is here, what I'm buying, what to watch out for my biggest lesson. And then the live chat review of favorite tech stocks, and you can, of course, throw in your own and I'll do my utmost to go through as many as possible. We're, of course, joined by the brains. Behold, behind the whole thing, winston, who's done a lot of digging and research here, which is why he looks so exhausted. He's always sleeping when I start these. Right, winston, winston, hey, there he is, you see he's awake. Uh, just about um palantir, new nato contract. Absolutely, I posted that already this morning. If you follow me on X, but are you ready to go through these seven points? If you are, put a seven in the chat down below and I'll see that you are ready. I've also found today, which I was very happy about, an old antique brass bell which I thought was rather sort of appropriate for the market open. Did you hear that? I hope you have that. So there we go. Now let's get cracking right.

Speaker 1:

So the Donald, the president, el Presidente, the orange one, he's posted something. Well, ltof7 said I love you for that, thank you, and smash the like button while you're at it. So the algorithm realizes that this isn't complete dross. Now donald tweeted or there was a, an announcement on saturday, which I did a video on on sunday, saying there is now an exemption for tariffs on, basically, computers, pcs. Why have you got this weird purple color going out? It it's really odd, isn't it? Let's go for a nice bright blue. So basically, it was an exception on PCs, on chips, on servers and sort of related stuff. Now, the exception wasn't zero tariffs, it was going to be 20% tariffs, but that was going to be a lot better than 124%, right, much, much better. So we're expecting today the NVIDIAs and the Apples and the Qualcoms and the Dells to rally on market open. We'll have a look at that when the market opens in a moment.

Speaker 1:

And then El Presidente, in this infinite wisdom, comes up with this today, saying there is no tariff exception announced on friday. These products are subject to the existing 20 tariffs and they're just moving to a different tariff bucket. Something about fake news, uh. And then it's. He says and this is the kicker we're looking at the whole semiconductor and electronic supply chain. Oh, phones were also part of this by the phones, so your iphones are safe. Then the upcoming national security tariff investigations. So they're basically saying there is a window here, but tariffs will be lower, but we might raise them again and that's, of course, going to cause a little bit more uncertainty, a little bit more uh, you know unpleasantness out there and therefore it's not quite as glorious as we thought it was going to be 24 hours prior. So that's what Donald's done.

Speaker 1:

And then Lutnick, us Commerce Secretary, comes out with this. He says there will come, in a month or so, tariffs on semis and electronic equipment. There will also be tariffs on pharma in the next month or two. He's not concerned about the US dollar, which probably means we should be concerned about the US dollar. Hmm right, not quite the positive news we wanted. Now, it is still better than a kick in the teeth and therefore futures are green. Market pre-market is still looking pretty good. Nvidia, particularly Apple, particularly the Palantir story is unrelated, we'll cover that in a moment, but now you're up to date with what's going on here. Now could this change? Yes, now could this change? Yes, trump speaks today at 11 am and again at 3 pm, so it could flip and flop twice today, which is you know who needs entertainment right when we've got this president and that.

Speaker 1:

So the question therefore is well, are you going to buy today or not? I'd urge you to learn the rules that the most successful investors out there have used for decades. I give them to you for free in the form of a 15-minute video in which I've condensed all that knowledge. It's really, really simple to understand. I know thousands and thousands, actually tens of thousands, of you have watched it, but it'll help you to not miss out on breakouts, and I'll put the poll out here. Most of you guys are concerned about missing the rally when it comes. So do that and you'll be much, much smarter and you won't need to ask some bloke on YouTube. Should I buy now, should I not? Because you'll actually know when to buy and you'll know when to sell. That's the hang on. There we go. I'll put it in the chat. I'll pin it to the chat as well, so it's easier for you to find. And if you want to leave this video right now and go watch that, I would actually be very happy almost as happy if a few more of you hit that like button Now.

Speaker 1:

I talked to you on Friday about robotics and I said my conspiracy theory is that this whole thing is about robotics Because if you want to move manufacturing back to the good old US of A, well, you just haven't got the labor, you haven't got the people who want to do those jobs and, given that they are cracking down on immigration, you're not going to import the labor either. So who's going to assemble all those iPhones right, and trainers and knit your sweaters and that sort of thing? Well, what I said was robots, I think. And if you looked at the lineup of the billionaire standing next to Trump at inauguration. Who was standing? There was Elon massive robotics, obviously, investor. There was Bezos right, he's got almost a million robots working in his warehouses. And then you've got the other two guys the Google guy and the Meta guy you know Zook. And what are these guys doing? Well, they're investing super heavily into AI, which is, of course, going to power robotics. Right, they're going to have to be smart, so you don't have to teach them every single movement. So what does Peter Navarro come out with? Yesterday or today even, he says we're able to build iPhones in the US through more automation and there's going to be plenty of jobs for robots.

Speaker 1:

So maybe I do occasionally have an idea. That's right. So I'm looking at robotics very, very, very, very seriously, excuse me, here we go. So why am I saying this is an opportunity to make money? Isn't the market super uncertain? We don't know which way it's going to go? Oh, my God, it could go down another 20, 30%. It could, it could. Yeah, any market can always go down 20 or 30%, especially one as volatile as this one.

Speaker 1:

But if you look back at every time, this fear index, which is what I keep talking about, known as the VIX fear index. Every time, this fear index, which is what I keep talking about, known as the VIX fear index Every time that's spiked like that, I have a mute button now, for example, for coughing, so I don't cough in your ear quite as loudly. I appreciate some of you listening to me on headphones. So every single time that's broken out like that and this goes back to 1990, the 12-month return. So 12 months later we were typically up 20%. Were there exceptions? Yeah, there was 2001 and 2008. 2001 because, well, none of those companies in the dot-com boom actually had a thought about how to make money. And then 2008 because we had a major financial crisis. But we are still only down 1.9% in 2008. This isn't a financial crisis. There's nothing wrong with American companies, or even the economy particularly. So we're just looking at like kind of a man-made problem here. So, yeah, so there we go.

Speaker 1:

So that's why I'm basically saying I think this is a good opportunity, but I'm still very cautious and I put a note out to you guys in my community this morning, my mentoring community to you know what I'm actually buying precisely and I want to walk through a little bit of that and this is a great chart. If you want to take a screenshot of this, please do, because this is a really really cool one. So one of the things that is the most widely accepted pretty much every investor out there will tell you yeah, this is a really good metric and it's called ROIC return on invested capital and it shows you what that is here for every industry. Maybe it's a little bit small. Take a screenshot of it and study it in your own time and then it shows you where right now, or whether the average return sits, and it's the defensive stocks, it's tobacco, it's household products, it's pharmaceuticals, and that's sort of the sector I'm looking at, because that's pretty safe. We kind of know what those companies are doing. They've got addicted customers in the case of tobacco, and that's kind of what we're looking at right now. It's just like safe sectors.

Speaker 1:

The other thing I'm looking at right now is and then I'm going to set up some trade, investments or trades today is gold. I think one or two utilities are on that list as well that I put out this morning and, as I say, there are some sort of consumer staples, because they are usually pretty resilient. Am I writing underneath myself? You can just about see that right. So I'm not looking at tech, I'm not buying tech, I'm not buying Apple, I'm not buying Nvidia or any of that stuff that's at very, very high risk right now. Because, if you understand the rules, you look at the chart and we look at some of those charts together. In a moment, you will understand that the big investors are not going to buy that right now because the charts look bad and unless until the charts look good again, they're not going to buy it. So it could take a really long time for those guys to recover, unless, of course, there's some massive policy change, in which case we act after the policy change. We don't try to anticipate it, because that would be gambling and that isn't really what investing is all about.

Speaker 1:

Do you buy the gold ETF? I'm looking more at the gold miners rather than gold itself. I think there is, in my opinion, more opportunity there. But yeah, gold looks pretty strong too. So, yeah, if you want to learn those rules, please do Go to felixfranzorg, get free and you'll actually stop missing out on breakouts and you stop missing the big, beautiful rallies that happen even in scenarios like this, and they're not that many right now. Usually they're loads right. At the moment they're not that many, but there are still some golden nuggets out there and it'll show you how you can find those.

Speaker 1:

Now, what do we watch out for this week? A couple of big earnings the Goldman and the Sachs reported this morning and we're grateful to them because quite often we get our paws on their research. But I say we mostly Winston Winston's got some really good inside friends. They're at banks, they're like I'm going to slip Winston my research. So the other big ones this week is AS, asml, just for the semiconductor sector, and ai play. That's really really key.

Speaker 1:

And then netflix, of course on thursday, and maybe amex, because that's a pretty good indicator for, like the more affluent sort of consumer. Now netflix won't be announcing user numbers anymore. So we're kind of like what do we track? Well, see if they see any impact from the economy, see what their outlook looks like, if they've seen anything. That'd be kind of good to see. So again, huge, huge, huge user base, very international business. About 40% of revenue there is from non-Americans. So that'd be kind of interesting to see how they see the world. But yeah, that's kind of the beginning of earnings season here and then of course it'll kick off properly.

Speaker 1:

I think the week or two after that it always starts out with these TSMC. Yeah, yeah, isn't that on the list here too, somewhere? I thought I saw it somewhere. I can't see the logo right now. If you can, well, done you. I'm obviously selectively blind. This morning, johnson Johnson might also be kind of interesting to look at. To model.

Speaker 1:

Now what's my biggest lesson? My biggest lesson is don't lose a lot of money. Okay, again, you might want to take a screenshot of this. If you are down 40%, you need a 67% gain to go back to zero. So what's the lesson? Don't go down 40%. You need a 67% gain to go back to zero.

Speaker 1:

So what's the lesson? Don't go down 40%. It's just really unpleasant. If you're down 10%, well, it only takes an 11% rally to go back up to where you started, which is more doable, but the worst this gets like if you're down 70%, you now need a 233% gain. That's pretty hard to do. It's very hard to do even for the most successful investors out there.

Speaker 1:

So, therefore, the number one lesson is always risk management. Right, and I'll teach you the exit rules if you watch the masterclass links down below, and that way it doesn't happen to you anymore. And for me, that's always the first thing I always do with students is like let's get risk management right first. Before you do anything, before you buy anything, before you think about buying anything, let's make sure your risk management is tight. Let's go your portfolio through your portfolio and your positions and make sure we're not ever going to have big losses. Small losses are fine, small losses are normal. Nobody is out there who says, oh, I'll never lose money. That would be ridiculous. You will always lose some money, but if it's small amounts, then the gains will easily outweigh that, and that's that's really what we do here. So I think that's a very useful one. Does that make some sense to you? Does that sort of land for you? If it does, put a, put a, put a G for gain in the, in the, in the live chat.

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