The Market Moved On. The Strait Didn’t.

Nine trading days.

That's how long it took the S&P 500 to recover every point it lost since the Iran war began.

The COVID crash — which was considered one of the fastest recoveries in market history — took 104 trading days. Twelve times longer.

The market's message is clear: this conflict is a disruption, not a recession. Recession odds in prediction markets never came close to what we saw during last year's trade war or the government shutdown.

We agree — mostly.

Here's what the market isn't pricing: the Strait of Hormuz can reopen Wednesday and 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity still takes five years to repair. Half of Iraq's oil production could restart within days. Kuwait's refineries could take months. Those are very different timelines — and only one of them is in the price.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-market-moved-on-the-strait-didnt/