Ahead of the Academy Award ceremony on March 12th, median monuments is previewing the possible Oscar picks. I'm your host Sandra Abrams, and joining me to share his top picks is award-winning movie critic, W T O P's, entertainment Reporter Jason Fraley. Jason has  BA in journalism from the University of Maryland, an m FFA in film and Electronic Media from America University.

So we have a lot of student members, so they'll be excited to hear that he has won numerous honors, including a regional Edward r Murrow Award and the Washington Post dubbed him a true film offic with a savant likability to name every best picture. That special skill makes him the perfect guest to chat with on who will win the Oscar.

Welcome Jason to Media and Monuments.

Hey, thanks for having me. That's quite the, the setup there. You've, you've been pulling some stuff from various bios, I guess, online

Absolutely. Well, we're very excited to have you here.  I think I mentioned to you,  we wanted to start talking about the best original song. I think what happens when people watch the Oscars, They may not necessarily have seen all the movies, but they will tune in to see, you know, the song and that Rihanna has been,  scheduled to appear on the program.

We haven't heard about whether or not Lady Gaga will, but I just thought this is a great category to start off talking with and, um, I thought it was a very interesting category in the sense of what happened at the Golden Globes. Natu, natu one, and they beat out Taylor Swift, lady Gaga and Ri. .  so Rihanna is singing, uh, lift Me Up from the Black Panther, Wakanda forever.

 and I think Stephanie Shu is singing, uh, this is the Life From Everything Everywhere, all at Once, which was written, co-written, I believe by David Byrne, who actually, I don't know, you might already know this. he went to Lance down high school, so he's local. 

I did not know that

Oh, see a fun fact that not even you knew.

Yeah, he, uh,

cool.

yeah.  and then Diane Warren, he has applause. And then,  hold my hand,  from Top Gun, which, uh, lady Gaga does with blood pop. So, looking at all that, uh, what's your take on this situation? Cons, you know, with these, uh, various original.

Yeah. Thanks for having me. Um, yeah, I think,  like you said, uh, Rihanna's gonna be performing at the, the show, which is cool because that's one of the things the Grammys always holds over the Oscars, right? They have these. Live performances. So the officer's like, how can we have some, you know, show in our show here on our award show rather than just reading the winners?

 and I do wanna say, you know, props to Rihanna for performing at the Super Bowl pregnant. Um, I know, yeah, yeah. If you could say, maybe it limited the dance moves or whatever, but when every critic, I tell them, Let me see you performing pregnant on national television. You know what I mean? , like that was, that was a gutsy, uh, cool performance.

Um, lift Me Up is a great song and, you know, rest in Peace, Chad with Bozeman. That movie helped us sort of mourn him. but I will say  I have this pet peeve every Oscar year where, Songs get nominated, you know, these big name stars, like you mentioned, lady, et cetera, Rihanna, um, where songs get nominated, but they're only in the end credits of the movie.

And that, that bothers me.  I think a song to be nominated or at least winning should actually factor into like the meat of the movie. You know, like a whole new world in a lad and, or let it go in Frozen, or I guess we mentioned Gaga, like she actually sha sang shallow. Stars born. Like I think the song should be in the movie if it's, if it's gonna win.

 but that's just me.  so in that case,  I think not to, not to  from, you know, from India's,  action packed, uh, movie musical,  but also action movie , R r r. It was.  it was a, yeah, so it's Bollywood, but I think it's something, I think I read that it's Hollywood. I think it's like a different, yes, a different part of India.

yeah, so in that case, uh, natu Nacho was this big action packed dance number with the two main characters, shaking hands and dancing around.  I would be fine if that wins, cuz that actually, like I said, factored into the movie. So I, I would be fine if not to, not to one. It was sort of a spectacle moment in that movie, which was a insane spectacle.

I thought the number, I watched it, I thought it was really fun between the, there's not much to the lyrics, but I thought the dance number was phenomenal, so, we'll, I guess we'll see what happens then on March 12th. let's talk about documentaries because I know for our membership here for Women in film and video, we have a lot of people doing documentaries and we did.

uh, on the Media Monuments podcast, we interviewed the co-directors for the Martha Mitchell effect and then another Earth and for the best documentary short.  and of course I loved it, but it could be two inside the beltway for the academy. And I did see the Elephant whisper another documentary short in that category.

Um, but do you have any take on that particular category?

 I will admit, I have not caught up with all of the documentary shorts. I've seen most all of the documentary feature nominees four outta the five. I still need to watch housemate of splinters about the orphanage in Ukraine. Um, but I can speak to the, the, the features if you want.

Yeah, no. Let's talk about the, we actually, there's a local connection that you had, uh, wrote about on W T O P.

Yeah. Yeah. All that breeze. Um, about, it's like a bird documentary, well, a bird healing documentary where these  two brothers in Deli India, are healing these injured kite kite birds that are falling from the sky. It's called all that breeze. The local connection is Tangled Bank Studios out of, uh, Chevy Chase, Maryland.

They co-produced it.  Good to see that nominated local local angle. There's Fire of Love, which was about these two volcano hunters,  a husband and wife. Just this beautiful footage of the lava and they actually lost their lives in that journey. Kind of like what Grizzly Man,  Herzo documentary years ago.

So it's sort of a tragic but beautiful love story.  All the beauty in the bloodshed is nominated.  that one is about a timely topic. The Sackler family, the inventors of, you know, Oxycontin, um, sort of getting blamed for a lot of the opioid epidemic problems.  the, the doc, I gotta admit, I went into this, I, I sort of failed by my own, suffered my own expectations.

I thought it was gonna be more like a dope sick, like takedown of the opioid epi epidemic. But it's only. Part of it. Most of the documentaries about Nan Golden, the artist, about her photography career, her personal life and stuff like that, and it's really well done. but it's sort of told as like a, um, you know, slideshow of her photography career.

 but once they get, once they do get to the, you know, calling out the Sacklers and making the Sacklers stare down the victim's, uh, testimony, it gets really powerful for me.  but for that reason, in my own expectations, it was more about n golden than it was about the, uh, Sacklers. To be that as it may, I think,  that the real winner, we haven't even mentioned.

The one that I think is gonna win, which is Navi or Navani, however you pronounce it. It's on hbo O Max. Um, Navalny. Yeah.  you know, he was, he was a political, uh, a political opponent of Vladimir Putin, um, who, believes that Putin poisoned him. And, uh, it's really gripping stuff. About halfway through the movie,  they set up phone calls, with people that they believe were actually, you know, Putin henchman carrying it out, and they actually get them on tape.

 sort of like the, what the, Robert Durst, the Jinx, you know, they get them on tape.  sort of admitting to poisoning him. It's riveting stuff.  I think that might win based on, you know, the war in Ukraine, Russia's invasion, all that. It's got that timely thing behind it.

 I think you're right.  I did see that.  that scene where they're making those phone calls, is incredible because you're on pins and needles. You don't know what's gonna happen in that, so, . Absolutely. I agree with you. So let's go and talk about,  the supporting roles here.  There's the, uh, best actress,  supporting role and I did see everything everywhere and I thought Jamie Lee Curtis was phenomenal,  in that,  but Angela Bassett is also up and it seems like she's been the front runner.

 she's nominated as well for best supporting for,  black Panther  there's other good people in this category though as well, so,  maybe, um, you have some insight as to what might happen here. Also, Jamie Lee Curtis just won the SAG award, so sometimes they say it's the sag may be,  the preview as to who might win at the Oscars.

Yeah. When Jamie Lee Curtis won a couple nights ago at, at the SAG Awards,  that was sort of the shocker because Angela Bassett was sort of considered running, running away with it,  this whole award season. And, you know,  They're both good in everything they do, obviously, you know, like they're legends for a reason  but I do gotta say that, you know, that said,  I think these are, I don't wanna say weaker performances cuz that's dismissive, but they're both, they're more like career wins for them, right?

Because Angela Bassett didn't win for the Tina Turner and all the great roles and Jamie Lee Curtis with Halloween and everything else. So I do believe that these are sort of roles, you know, with jam, with the what? Hotdog fingers, , all that stuff in everything everywhere. Like, they don't seem like. And for Bassett,  a superhero sequel where, you know, she doesn't have all that much screen time, I guess she gets the big one speech in front of the, you know, the crowd there in Wakanda.

 but they don't seem like roles ever typically win. Um, you'd think traditionally it would go to like Kerry Conda in Banshees of, in a shean. Like she was amazing in that movie. And I think probably the best in this, this whole category. But it does seem like it's going to be one of the, the quote makeup awards of the career wins,  for Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis.

It's gonna be one of them.  despite Curtis winning, I, I still, I like she mentioned the Nepo baby with her, Tony Curtis and Janet Lee. That was fun that she sort of roasted herself, but then owned it in her own right.  I still think for some reason I still think Angela Bassett's gonna hold out and win this.

I think sort of that momentum that built up earlier in the year is gonna, gonna prevail.  did you wanna go supporting actor as.

Yeah, let's talk about supporting actor. Although I did think, um, I did not see the Banshees of eny, but my nephew and his wife saw it and then they liked it so much that they saw it again. And they're the parents of a two-year-old and a seven-year-old. So for them to see that movie twice and then they said that she was phenomenal.

So , you never know

 I really loved Banes  but it is one of those like disclaimer movies  you know, when you review movies for mainstream audiences  you have to slap a disclaimer sometimes and, and say, like, I don't think it will be for everyone. It kind of  ends on sort of this wistful, bittersweet node kind of tragic stuff.

And also it's kind of this. Dark humor, bizarre. You know, I, I can't quite put my finger on it. If you've seen the movie, you'll know, and I'm referencing by fingers. I don't wanna spoil it.  but it is some pretty, you know, bizarrely dark stuff. But I loved it. Like I was watching it in the, in one room and my wife like overheard it in the other room.

It was like, Heard me laughing out loud and she even, she was laughing and she kind of came in and finished watching it with me cuz she was like, she was like, what is going on in there?  so I did like bans.  um, pivoting from Carrie Conden in supporting actors, um,

Yeah, we got Brett. Let's see, best supporting, We've got two people from the Banshees, Brendan Gleason, Barry, uh, Kuen. We got Brian Tree Henry from Causeway. We got Judd Hirsch from the Fable Men's, but he was only in the Fable men's for all of 10 minutes.  and Key who quan from everything everywhere, all at once.

Yeah. I,  think it's like you mentioned the, the two, uh, Banes guys, Brendan Gleason named Barry. I think it's pronounced Ke Keegan. I'm not sure how you pronounce it,  they were both great in that movie, especially Barry with,  his scene trying to ask out Carrie Conden, but she says it's never gonna happen, and he just looks so dejected and walks away.

It was, that's like a viral. Thing on Twitter now.  but I think those two, the Banshee boys are gonna, um,  cancel each other out probably in, the votes. And to your point, Judd Hirsch was terrific in Fable. And sort of this, you know, if you choose a career in art, it'll,  chew you up and spit you out.

 the uncle that visits the young kids sort of. A proxy for Stevens Spielberg's own life.  but like you said, he is barely in the movie, so I don't know if he'll actually win. I,  think this is a case where, um, Kay Huan is gonna gonna hold on and win for everything everywhere.  mostly just as like a feel good thing, like a, such a great career comeback story where.

You know, we loved him in, I first saw him in Indiana Jones and Temple of Doom.  of course everyone also loved him as,  data in the Goonies. So I think we're rooting  for Old Short, round  and data to make a, to, to make a comeback here.  but it sort of speaks to sort of how, you know, and he even said this at the Sag Wars, where he was the first, um, Asian actor to win in his category, which is crazy to think, but like he, he basically spoke to how you.

Asian actors for so long, like yeah, he was this child star, but for so long he like sort of left the business cuz there was no roles  it is really sad that it's taken this long to, to, you know, ha he's a, he's a grown man now and, and we're just now,  honoring him. but I do think that that will push him over the finish line.

I think he'll finally get his, uh, his flowers this year.

Good to hear. I, I thought he was phenomenal. I really enjoyed it. So, let's skip over to, uh, best actor. Now we've got the nominees as Austin Butler for Elvis. Colin Farrell for the Ban Cheese. , Brendan Frazier for the whale and he just won the SAG award.  Paul Misko,  from the movie After Sun, I didn't see that.

And Bill Nike. Um, and he was in the movie Living. I did see the Trailer for Living, and I think Bill is phenomenal in everything that he does. So,

Yeah.  Living is a remake of one of my favorite Zawa mo Japanese movies,  Ichiru about the, you know, the. Finds out he is dying and,  you know, sits on the swing at the end as the snow falls. Oh, I'm crying thinking about it.  but yeah, I guess  in any other year, some alternate universe, maybe it could have been Colin Ferrell's year for Banes.

He seems to overdue, but I don't, I don't think it's gonna happen. Sally, I think the competition's  too strong here.  for the longest time it. Austin Butler was running away with it for Elvis, you know, and,  oddly he's sort of stayed in character during all the award show speeches. He still talks like Elvis.

I don't know what's going on. He's become the character. Um, but he was really great in that movie. I thought Tom Hanks was sort of miscast in that movie. and Bos Luhrmann's flashy style is sort of love it or hated. But I actually, I, I like the movie because of Austin Butler. He became Elvis, so I would be fine if he won.

Plus, Lisa Marie Presley just died in real life. So that sort of has that going for it. Unlike,  Rammy Mallek,  in Bohemian Rhapsody when he won, I think, I'm pretty sure I remember Rammy won at the Sag and Butler did not win at the Sag. Uh, the other night it was Breon and  Frazier in the whale.

 which again, the movie itself, Darren Aronofski very dark.  some people. Called it mean spirited. Other people still thought it was profound either way.  Brendan Frazier totally transformed, uh, with the prosthetics, the overweight,  but also it's just like a great comeback story for his career.

Like a lot of people, he was this beloved blockbuster guy, you know, Encino Man and the Mummy and  George of the Jungle is now in Oscar contention. It seems crazy, but I think that's why a lot of people are sort of pulling for him is, you know, he's, it's sort of a nice. Nice little comeback story. I, I guess I think, uh, gosh, if I have to pick, it's either Austin Butler, Brendan Frazier. I'm gonna go Frazier cuz he just won. I think that it's gonna, he'll pull it out and, uh, whoever wins, uh, I hope doesn't slap Chris Rock like last year's winner

Well, you know it, this year's Oscars, they already said that they're gonna have,  I believe a mental health person on staff there,  just in case anything,  goes awry.

Yeah. Like this is the fir. It's crazy. It's crazy that they have to do that now, right?  but yeah, you gotta think of it. It was unthinkable before last year that something could happen with Will Smith going up. There, but, um, anyway, we don't have to detour into that, but,  Chris Rock  I guess we should say he is doing a Netflix special, uh, from Baltimore's Hippo room.

 they, they filmed it there and it's gonna live stream this Saturday, I think. So there's a local angle and he is gonna address the whole slap thing a year later, uh, from Baltimore. So that's kind of cool.

Well, we'll see if Jimmy Kimmel has any info on that when he does his opening monologue. be

Well, hey, remember by the way, Kimmel was there hosting when they did the whole envelope Gaff. I was there covering it backstage that year and they said, LA La Land. And so we're all rapidly filing, you know, Lala Land wins, and then to watch the whole, oh, you have the wrong envelope, it's actually moonlight.

Like that was insane. And we thought that was the craziest it could ever get until the Will Smith thing. So like you never know what's gonna happen at these , these live shows.

Well, that's a great anecdote. Thank you for sharing that.  So where are you gonna be this year for watching the Oscars? Are you gonna be.

I will firm, be firmly on my couch, live tweeting, and then you know, run up upstairs into our nice little home booth that my wife set up with her sound company. And, uh, I'll be filing stuff for W T O P in the morning. , I'm not, I'm not flying out and covering it.  this year. That was like a pre pandemic thing.

Maybe I'll do it again sometime, but.

Well, let's start. Talk about Best actress, because again, that is another hotly contested category. It's been going back and forth.  I thought Michelle Yo was amazing.  I did not see Kate Blanchette and Tar, but I have seen her in many other things and thinks she's incredible. I did not see blonde. , but I heard that uh, Anna d Arm was very good.

I did see the Fable men's, Michelle Williams was excellent.  and then there's Andrea Riseborough,  in two Leslie. So, but they're saying that Michelle yo might get it,  because of the, the career longevity. I've been watching her career since she did memoirs of Aisha. Um, I thought she was phenomenal and crazy rich Asian.

So, uh, what's your take on that? That.

Yeah. And one you did mention a Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, right? It's been so many, so many great roles over the year. I think you're right. I think Michelle, yo, especially after winning it Sag, I think she's going to,  finally win the Oscar and it's gonna be one of those great,  groundbreaking wins and everyone in the room will be, everyone in the room will cheer for that just based on the.

The number of roles she had to play. I remember, remember Lupita and yogo had to play two roles in Jordan peel's us and it was amazing, but she didn't get nominated. Well here, Michelle Yo has to play like, I don't even know, like a dozen different roles maybe all inner cutting with,  each other.

It's, it's pretty incredible. Plus the sort of career win, like, like you said, I think everyone would be happy.  and it's an interesting turn of events because, you know, maybe December, early January everyone was saying Kate Blanchett because she was so good in tar and she's won. Twice before one supporting actress and Aviator, and then again for Blue Jasmine, for Best Actress, and she's so great.

And Tara as the conductor and the, and Tara's like a twisty, thriller ish vibe where,  there's, it's like a a me too thing where Kate Blanchard has been putting down. Former student.  so it kind of flips  that whole thing. So TAR was a very interesting Thriller movie and Kate Blanchett is great, but I do think Michelle Yo is gonna pull it out.

 to piggyback on what you were saying about Michelle Williams, I thought she was awesome in the Fable Man's, and I think it's one of those cases where, If they had slid her over into supporting actress, kind of like Viola Davis did in offenses where they could have been lead, but maybe could have been supporting, kind of straddle that line.

If Michelle Williams went in supporting, I think she might actually won this year, I think she would've beat, Jamie Lee Curtis or Angela Bassett. I think she was that good. But in this, in this stat category, I don't think, um, Michelle Williams is gonna win This category is actually a final, final point on this.

In, in best. This is where I think they were the biggest snubs that that disappointed me the most. Like I thought there should have been Viola Davis for the woman, king Viola called?

bet she was phenomenal. Woman king. I saw that. She was incredible. Yes. Mm-hmm.

Yeah, she and, uh, what was it? The NAACP awards over the weekend? I think she, yeah, she called the Woman King, uh, her magnum opus. She, you know, in so many great roles over the year, but she, she called that her magnum opus performance  and movie. Cause I think she was a producer in it too. So I was really sad not to see her, nominated there.

And also Danielle Dwier, uh, of Till Playing Emmett Till's mom. Such a powerful, especially when she has to go, um, in, in the courtroom scene, she has to go up and, you know, and says, I'm trying to find justice for my son. Like, it is, it is so powerful. And the fact that those two weren't nominated,  I think it was a case where, where voters, um, Took it for granted.

They, they had seen them, both of them, they thought they were like locks.  they had seen so many projections that they would get nominated.  plus you had the Andrea Riseborough, I think we can go in a second if you want, but I think  those were the two where I, thought were, were locks to be in the five nominees.

And I was stunned that they weren't.

Right. And I think, you know, will we see more of the Andrea Rebo, the campaigning going on in the future? What, you know, what's the, what's ahead on that?

So that one came outta nowhere, like most people. Prognosticators hadn't even seen to Leslie and suddenly there she is getting nominated.  I guess just in case listeners hadn't followed at all, um, there was, uh, a couple Instagram posts advocating for Riseborough, um, by Francis Fisher of remember Titanic and Unforgiving and stuff.

She posted a couple posts that said, Um, I have it here in my opinion, nominating Andrea in first position because I think all the other ladies are a lock, like we just said, but turns out they weren't a lock. So I think that sort of helped,  tilt the thing. Um, but then there was also emails sent by director Michael Morris and his wife, Mary McCormick, the actress, inviting folks, you know, not only to screen the movie, but then come back to a private reception at their house and the academy.

Specifically state that members can't,  invite others to attend, dinners and lunches and events like that to,  promote eligible films for award consideration. So because of all of that, the Academy,  conducted this investigation after the fact. But I mean, let's be serious. You can't really take it away from Rasberry at that point, then that would seem unfair the other way.

So they were kind of stuck. And so, like you're saying, I hope that at least the fact that there was this controversy that maybe it'll discourage people from doing it in the future. Maybe the next time an actor goes to post something on social media or invite people over to their private resident, which is forbidden,  maybe they'll think twice because of this, but sadly, that ain't helping Viola Davis or Daniel er this year.

You know, so what are you gonna do? I guess you can only fix it going forward,  

The other category where people got shut out was in the best director category where women got shut out. It was, again, all men.  and I thought, speaking of Viola Davis and Woman King,  the director of that was, uh, GIA, prince Blythewood.  again, I thought it was incredible, but I found out that the director from the Triangle sadness was nominated and I thought, triangle sadness.

No . I, I was like the Swedish director, I think his name is Ruben Ossit. Uh, got, so that's why I

Oslan. Yeah. Yeah. He made

why did he get

years ago.

so he get, he got, you know, what's your take on that, this category? I think, let me just say it's, uh, Who is in this category? Martin, McDonald's in this category, the two Daniels for everything everywhere.

Steven Spielberg, which you're talking about. It's, you know, his year. Todd Phil from tar, and then the director from uh, triangle Sadness.

Yeah, I think, um, at the beginning, just listening to the names you listed, I think in the beginning, Everyone thought maybe this would be where Fable Men's might win. They thought maybe Spielberg  would win. Um, best director, even if it didn't win anything else be just because of how, He opened up his own personal life and his parents' divorce and all of that. And they're actually, I think it's his directing in it is,  underrated. Like the, the left brain, uh, mom is on the left side of the bed. The right brain dad is on the right side. Or it might be vice versa. I can't remember. But either way, uh, there, there's some directing stuff going on.

Right.

 I think the Daniels are going to win in this cuz they won the Director's Guild. So I think that was sort of Spielberg's shot to get in, to get in this race. And I think that Daniels actually kind of closed the door on that. And because of d G A that usually lines up most every time,  with this.

to your larger point about that, it's all men again in best director.  I was stunned because they were actually really, really qualified women directors in the movies this year.  Sarah Polly, uh, for Women Talking was a really fascinating movie, doing so much with,  dialogue. Um, and then Maria Schrader and she said, you mentioned Gina Prince.

Bythewood the woman king, which to me she directed that like, you know, Ridley Scott directing Gladiator or, or Mel Gibson directing Braveheart, like it was a throwback,  sort of, um, action spectacle.  but honestly, the one that the, the woman that director that I thought deserved to be nominated, let alone win this year, wasn't even nominated is Charlotte Wells.

And after son, it was this indie movie about a father and a daughter, but on, on a vacation.  if you wanna see what, good directing is, I thought. Charlotte Wells directing and after Sun was the best direction I saw in any movie all year.  the most creative shots  Like the compositions were amazing, just the way they took. You know, quote unquote mundane, boring spaces, but made them visually dynamic. If any young filmmakers listening to this watch Charlotte Wells, any women in film and video members watch Charlotte Wells direction after some, it's amazing.

 but yes, sadly, I think,  it will be a man that, not sadly, but you know what I mean. There, there should be some women nominated, is what I'm trying to say. Especially after two years where Chloe Jao won for no Medland and Jane Campion won for Power of the Dog. And suddenly we go to,  no women nominees here.

that's unfortunate. But I guess I'll pick the Daniels. I.

  we'll talk about our, our final category and then we'll have a few follow up questions for you,  about the Oscars in general. So we've got about 10 pictures here.  and it seems like, you know, there's the pictures that the general audience goes to see, and then there's the pictures that were nominated that the academy likes to pick,  these, you know, art house films.

So it seems like there's a wide variety of films going on here for best.

Oh yeah, totally.

you know, there's Maverick, uh, you know, top Gun is nominated. Everybody's seeing that Avatar. People will go see that, but not everybody is gonna go see TAR and not everybody is gonna go see, um, triangle of Sadness.

Oh yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. And  it's interesting  I'll, I'll make my picks for best picture first, but  remind me to come back to what you just said, because I really wanna talk about that disconnect between the academy and the general public.

 but. In terms of predicting first,  it seems like everything everywhere, all at once has been winning everything everywhere, all  at once. It really ha like it won the Directors Guild, it won the Producers Guild and it just won,  the top prize at the SAG awards as well.  so if there's anything close to a lock, I think that's going to be it this year.

And, you know,  I had it in my top 10 list, but not,  towards the top, but I, I wanted to give it credit for like, it's a wildly creative  and ambitious movie. Like I do admire filmmakers just like. Absolutely saying, we're just gonna go for it. We're gonna swing, swing for the fences and throw everything in the wall and just be creative and edit through all these different timelines, over all these different histories of these character.

Like it, it was crazy and,  I just, I admire the, the creative ambition for it.  On the flip side, I will say that especially for maybe older academy voters, it's definitely gonna be polarizing, like along generational lines. there definitely will be older folks like my mentor, arch Campbell, uh, love the guy and he's done so much for me.

But  I have heard a lot of people,  Say it's like too crazy on two bonkers, like this rapid fire. It, it represents the short attention span of our society. And I, I sort of get that it's, it sort of even looks like a Marvel movie, sort of an out and shot. So like I totally get that and maybe if that's the case,  I could see where they do these preferential ballots, sort of the ranked ranked voting.

Um, I could see where that might favor a more traditional alternative, but I don't know what that would be. Maybe it's the Fable

Maybe all quiet on the Western front because that did very well at the Baptist

Yeah. That wanted, that wanted the

traditional. War movie a again, it was beautifully shot. I I thought that it was amazing, but  I'm not a war picture kind of person that usually watches that though.

Right, exactly. Well, it was sort of an anti-war movie, right? Just like the, uh, 1930 original too. But yeah, you're right. It, it cleaned up at the Baptist, which I think they, I think 1917 also won a couple years ago, but that lost,  te parasite  at best picture. So maybe that all happened again here with the war movie loses.

 but yeah, all quiet on the Western front was, was great. I thought it was, I thought it was really well. Um, but yeah, like I guess what we're saying, I don't know  what that maybe those will be more traditional alternatives, but I really do think in the end I think it'll be everything everywhere, all at once.

Cuz I, I sort of have a personal theory that like these things move in cycles and like,  I guess it's like almost like every three years  we go to like a more traditional movie pick. So in 2012, Argo 2015, spotlight, traditionally straightforward storytelling green book in 20 18, 20 21 was Koda of More Mainstream.

So I think every like. Three years, we go back to the traditional, like the movies that kind of used to win best picture  but that's not this. I think we're in one of those in between years where we get an edge of your artery movie, like a moonlight shape of water, parasite, no mad land. Like,  if I'm doing my weird mental calculations on how these cycles go, I think this is an everything everywhere you're in general.

Not to mention that it's won all the Guild . So I think that's pretty safe. It's gonna win. Best picture.

So what is, why do you think that we have this disconnect though between,  what's happening out in the general public, you know, what films they watch and then the Oscars and people are going, I never heard of this movie. What are you talking about?

Yeah,  this divide between art and mainstream is like, uh, you know, the between the film spectrum of art on one end and entertainment on the other side is a very important issue to me.  I have many thoughts on it.  Especially the idea, like I want, especially younger people, I want them to realize that top grossing movies like used to win best picture all the time.

 and even if it wasn't the top grossing movie, like a top 10 gross won like 90% of the time. Probably from like the. 1930s through the 1970s, you know, sound of Music was a Blockbuster Godfather was a blockbuster, Rocky was Abl, was the number one Grossy movie of the year. And one best picture, even into the nineties, it was like we'd get Forrest Gump and Titanic and you know, gladiator like these big, these were blockbuster movies that still won best picture and, but, Sadly, it hasn't happened in 20 years since,  Lord of the Rings returned to the King in 2003.

So 20 years ago was the last time we had a top gross win.  it's really shifted to, less high grossing movies.  like indie movies aren't house movies in recent years. And so what changed, I guess, Is  my theory and what I think, I truly believe that it is, uh, the, the sequel culture that began in, in the eighties, right?

So I guess you had the jaw sequels and Star Wars sequels of the late seventies coming into the eighties. But in the eighties was when this. Sequel culture really blew up with Indiana Jones and back to the Future. And again, the original ones of those were great, but I think it spawned this culture where the top grossing sequels now are all sequels.

If you look down like the top 10, top 20 grossing movies, they're mostly all Marvel sequels, sequels to, you know, Jurassic World and other franchises.  so I understand why. Filmmakers, voters in the academy would want to reward something original, like in everything everywhere, all at once or something like that.

Or, uh, even like an nomad land or whatever. Recent winners like, uh, parasites. I, I could see why they won a award, original work rather than like, New filmmaker writing the coattails of some other franchise, like, so I get that. So that's my theory on it, but it saddens me cuz I do think that the divide just grows wider and wider with each passing year.

Like that genie outta the bottle of Hollywood isn't gonna stop making, making sequels in three equals and quadruples in part six Es and sevens. We have Creed three coming out this year, which is what, Rocky eight or nine? I don't remember where we're at now. 

But they're probably not gonna give it to Creed three as great as Creed was. And Ryan Coogler is amazing. So, um, yeah, I think that is what is causing. The divide. Um, I thought, get out Jordan Peele might have been the closest. We came to an art house masterpiece that has like symbolic layers. The third, fourth time you watch it.

Double meanings, triple meanings. Um, but we also had the blocks office appeal. Right. I, and, and it didn't win, sadly lost shape of water, but I thought that was like the closest we got to sort of a Box office hit, um, having the artistic way and like I said, the originality of a fresh idea, uh, of winning, but it didn't.

But I, I really do miss the days when the top grossing movies were also the box office champs, a good artfully made mainstream movie is my wheelhouse. But sadly, I think a lot of the mainstream top grocers are the sequels now, and that's, I think that's why they don't win.

That's my theory on it anyway.

That's great insight.  I wanted to ask you,  what happens if the Oscars went away?

Um, will they ever go away? That's an interesting question. Um, I, I don't think they'll, I don't think they'll ever go away. Totally.  because there's too much, you know. Additional press and accolades and buzz and money that can be made by slapping those laurels on,  a trailer.

And, um, it sort of distills some movies. It gives us a list of movies to go watch, I guess. Right. Um, so I don't think it'll ever go away, but I do think the. Impact of it is waning. And I do think that even if it doesn't go away, it it'll just like move to streaming. Kind of like sag  The SAG awards aired not on cable.

Uh, they aired on, um, Netflix's YouTube channel the other night, . And going forward, it's gonna be live streamed on actual Netflix. So I think that you're gonna see more award shows sort of going the streaming route. It'll become like a niche thing for that chil. You know, follow, but that main maybe mainstream movie goers who are tired of their favorite movies, never getting nominated and never winning, I think they're kind of pulling away.

And we're seeing that, we're seeing that in the ratings, like the declining ratings are definitely real. They're so far from the, the high watermark pun not intended of when Titanic. Um, It was like the ratings juggernaut because again, like we were saying earlier, people want a best picture that is the top grossing movie of the year.

Like, I kind of missed those days. But anyway, the ratings are falling. Um, but I do think, what's the, the Mark Twain thing about the news of the demise is, is greatly exaggerated. Like I do think. The demise is happening, but I don't think it's because the Oscars are suddenly are like a terribly produced show or we gotta reinvent the wheel.

I don't really think that, I really think it's just all network TV is plummeting because of all the splintered streaming services. Um, we see like, like, If you took the NFL games out of, um, you know, network tv, I think the whole thing would collapse. I don't  think it would even really exist anymore. Uh, the Super Bowl dwarfs everything,  today, by the way, is the 40th anniversary of the MASH finale, and it was like 106 million viewers or whatever everyone was watching it compared. Game of Thrones gets what the finale was, maybe like 20 million or something.

And it's not that TV's any worse. In many ways. It's better. We're like in a golden age where so many options and such quality stuff that rivals movies now at home. Um, plus you add the pandemic. A lot of people had, you know, got used to staying home watching streaming. I think it's more of just the splintering of, of society where we're not.

You know, to me, to me, complaining about the Oscar ratings, ratings, dwindling is sort of like saying like, well, baseball games on the radio aren't getting good ratings like they did back in the thirties when we all huddled around for FDR fireside chats and, and caught the ball game. Like, it's like society has changed so much that.

I don't know if we can say, oh, well the Oscars should change their host, and that's gonna matter. I think it's just like society and technology and our habits are moving on away from, away from award shows. 

The 95th Academy Awards will be March 12th, and for more entertainment news, go to W t O p.com. Jason also has a podcast Beyond the Fame, where he chats with influential filmmakers and musicians. Thank you, Jason, for chatting with Media and Monument.

Thank you so much. This was just so much fun. Um, we, I could talk about this all day, but it was so much fun and we'll, yeah, we'll, we'll see you on Oscar night. We'll see. We'll see if, how many we got right or were more likely wrong. Probably