A Wiser Retirement®

223. Should you buy a house in 2024?

• Wiser Wealth Management • Episode 223

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Is 2024 a good time to purchase a new home? On this episode of A Wiser Retirement™, Casey Smith is joined by realtor, Tom Townsend from Townsend Realty Group. They talk about what's going on in the housing market, what to know about buying a house in 2024, interest rates, upcoming changes to realtor commissions, and investing in a second home.

Podcasts Referenced:
- Ep 198: Real Estate Market Trends: What to Watch for in 2024

YouTube Videos Referenced:
- Will mortgage rates drop in 2024?
- Should I pay off my mortgage? Why or why not?

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- Schedule a Complimentary Consultation: Discover how we can help you achieve financial freedom.
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This podcast was produced by Wiser Wealth Management. Thanks for listening!

Real Estate Commission Structure Clarified

Speaker 1

Are you guys working for free now? Is that what's?

Speaker 2

happening. Yes, yeah, no money, no money. You can actually hire an agent. We just go out there and do it pro bono, absolutely yeah, that's the crazy thing. Probably the craziest thing that I heard was that all of a sudden we're going to be working for free or for half the price or something like that.

Speaker 1

And welcome to a Wiser Retirement Podcast. We believe the best financial advice should always be conflict-free. I'm your host, casey Smith, guiding you to financial freedom. Today is my co-host, tom Townsend. Tom is a local realtor and has been a guest on our podcast many times. Hey, tom, welcome back. Well, thanks for having me. Glad to be back. So, tom, what's happening in the world of Keller Williams?

Speaker 2

Keller Williams. Yeah, we just. We're continuing to be the number one agent in the local area here nationally and in the Southeast, so things are great. We measure that by agent count, number of transactions and actually overall volume. So in those three categories we are just moving forward and things are going well.

Speaker 1

So I want to start off with, I guess, what's happening with this national realtor decision? Basically, are you guys working for free now. Is that what's happening?

Speaker 2

decision. Basically, are you guys working for free now. Is that what's happening? Yes, yeah, no money no money you can actually hire an agent. We just go out there and do it pro bono, absolutely. Yeah, that's the crazy thing. Probably the craziest thing that I heard was that all of a sudden we're going to be working for free or for half the price or something like that.

Speaker 1

So that's so. Is that how me understand? This is the National Realtor Association, is that right?

Speaker 2

National Association of Realtors.

Speaker 1

OK, national Association of Realtors. They were sued, is that correct?

Speaker 2

Correct, along with all many of the larger brokerages, so they were all kind of bundled together in this huge lawsuit that came out of Missouri from the homeowners. It was started with homeowners.

Speaker 1

Basically, is it over like saying there's monopoly and the 6% shouldn't be 6%, or what was the premise of the lawsuit? Do you know?

Speaker 2

Well, the premise was that it was a clouded conversation. There was no transparency of what these fees and the commissions really were and where they were coming from and who was paying for what and what the definitions of the commissions were. So that's kind of where it was born from and I think people need to understand every state runs a little bit differently. So in the state of Missouri, the way that they operated, from what I understand, you know and I don't I'm still trying to get my hands on a lot of this stuff but from what I understand, the state of Missouri worked a little bit differently than like Georgia, than like Georgia, georgia believe it or not. We're really ahead of the curve as far as how we communicate to the general public of what commissions are, where they're at, who pays what and what they are, and they're all negotiable. But supposedly in Missouri, you know, people thought it was a fixed fee. There wasn't any negotiating going on and it was very clouded on where these commissions came from and who was paying.

Speaker 1

So you say in Georgia, someone could walk up to you and say hey, I want you to sell this for me, but I'm going to pay you six, I'm going to pay you two. Is that what you're saying?

Speaker 2

Well, you always could do that. It's always been negotiable. But yeah, I mean, you know, if you've got a house that you want to sell, you could call me up and we could sit down and you say listen, I don't want to pay your standard or your typical fee of 6%, I want two. Now I've got the right to say you know, I have to justify that.

Speaker 2

I got to show my value and explain to you you know, and then I have to make a decision and if I want to move forward with you or not, from a business standpoint to make a decision on if I want to move forward with you or not.

Speaker 1

from a business standpoint I mean, I feel like on the lower end of homes, let's say a half million dollars or less, you're probably not going to drop your rate. But if you go up market and let's say the house is three million, I guess there's less buyers. So you have to have maybe a different network of buyer potentially. But you use 6% on $3.5 million. Now, to be clear, you're not getting six. That's usually split between two agents, right, and then a little bit.

Speaker 1

So you get three right Typically, but then does one, or how much actually goes back to Keller Williams or the broker.

Speaker 2

Okay, so let me kind of break this down. This is where a lot of the confusion is. Yeah, so, as a listing agent, if I'm coming to you and you have a $3 million piece of property, you and I are having a conversation of what fee you will be paying Keller Williams because I work for Keller Williams. Right, let's just use 6%, it's negotiable. All right, casey, it's negotiable 6% is not a standard.

Speaker 1

That's what we think.

Speaker 2

it's just going to be right, Correct half of that conversation is going to be this is what Keller Williams is going to be taking from that 6% and providing to a cooperative broker to bring us a buyer, but that 6% is paid through your receipts from the sale. Yep, and it is a relationship, it is a negotiating between you and Keller Williams as a listing agent, not you and the buyer's broker, correct, okay, that is between Keller Williams and whoever brings you the cooperative broker. Right, that's how it works right now. Right now, that's how it works. Right now. That's how it works. And then we can talk about what that split is. If Keller Williams is providing 3%, or maybe 2% of it, or 1%, or whatever it happens to be, that's very transparent and we, as between Keller Williams and you, the seller, are going to have that conversation and that's all going to be written up in the listing agreement.

Speaker 1

But it doesn't go further than that in that what percentage does my friend Tom actually put in his pocket?

Speaker 2

Well, that's between Tom and Keller Williams, right? So I have fees that I pay into Keller Williams and you know it depends on if we have a cap and so on and so forth and so on and so forth. But primarily yeah, primarily 15% of most agents. If they're at a certain volume of business, about 15% of that's going to go flow back to Keller Williams, the local Keller Williams office, which is a franchise, and then that franchise has a fee to corporate, to corporate.

Speaker 1

Correct A lot of fingers in the pie.

Speaker 2

Yeah, there's a lot of moving parts and I say that 15% that's kind of an average. It all is based on the volume that your actual business does, so that fluctuates a little bit. We basically have a cap every year.

Speaker 1

So then, if I was selling a lake lot somewhere with no structure on it, that seems to be 10%.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah that's driven by the market.

Speaker 1

That's just because of what people are willing to pay on a lot. That's right Now.

Speaker 2

I think a lot of that was born from the fact that a lake lot can be very expensive. So there may be a little bit of negotiating there, but if you just take a random acre out in the middle of 10, buck two, um, you know, maybe it's eight thousand dollars. That's why it's higher, right, yeah, because three percent on it. You know, it's just not a lot of money and not a lot of agents are going to be putting the time, effort and energy into that.

Speaker 1

Let's let's flip the conversation around a minute. Let's say you found a broker. Instead of paying them six, they're willing to do four. So I'm assuming if a broker is willing to do four, they're really hungry for the business, which means that they might give you maybe a little more attention initially to try to get some interest. But it also means they probably have less experience. They probably don't have as big of a network to reach out on that property.

Speaker 1

So it really depends on the property too, because some houses you could put a for sale sign up written in a piece of paper on the front lawn and it'll be sold in a couple hours because it's location. But most properties aren't that way. Most properties have to be found and it'll be sold in a couple hours because it's location, but most properties aren't that way. Most properties have to be found. They need to be listed in the MLS. People need to be able to find them on Zillow or realtorcom, something like that. So obviously there's a benefit to paying that percentage. I think if you're a buyer, there is no reason why you wouldn't be using a real estate agent if you're a buyer. Correct, yeah.

Speaker 2

I mean it's not costing you anything. The other side is paying for that. Yeah, that's right.

Speaker 1

Especially if you're new to an area. If you're going somewhere for the first time, you don't know much about the area. You probably want to know where the best investment is right.

Speaker 2

Yeah, no, that's exactly right. And so what I always tell folks that are searching in the area and maybe they're not that familiar with it is listen, the Internet's great Zillow, all of those platforms are wonderful, but they're only going to get you up to a certain point, and then you're going to have to engage with a local agent. And then you're going to have to engage with a local agent. Right, all of a sudden get a little bit more granular, explain to you the different locations, the nuances of the area, and get you to the finish line. So, once again, the platforms are great. You know, you can find a house and I want to see this one and I want to see that one, I'm interested in that but you've got to engage an agent to get you to the finish line, especially in this market where things are moving so quickly. A lot of times people will call us up and say, hey, I want to see 123 Main Street. I saw it on Zillow and I'm telling you it's already gone. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's a good segue. You think it's a buyer's market still or a seller's market? I'm sorry, seller's market still versus buyer's market.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's still a seller's market primarily. We are starting to see a little bit of a shift in the higher price points. Now I'm talking local here. We're talking about the Atlanta metro area. $3 million and above is starting to shift more to a buyer's market. So we're starting to see indications that that is more of a buyer's market. But anything below $3 million is still a seller's market. So we're starting to see indications that that is more of a buyer's market. But anything below $3 million is still a seller's market, especially if you have a really nice property and then that sweet spot you get anything at $300,000 to $450,000, it is definitely a seller's market.

Speaker 2

I mean, it is just we're still getting multiple offers in that, in that whole segment.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I struggle with that. With these new employees we're bringing on out of college, it's like a starter home in Marietta right now. It's going to run you about five to $600,000. And that's insane. I did a cert my own search for you know. Sure you can pick up a condo for 300 grand or something. It doesn't exist.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it doesn't.

Speaker 1

You better jump on it inside the 30060 zip code, for sure, or even 30064. But if you go north, there are some options, but it's not as nice as it was five years ago, for sure.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we've definitely got an affordability issue and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better. It really doesn't. No, no.

Speaker 1

I think if the feds can't get inflation under control and inflation keeps going up, then stocks will keep up for a while, but ultimately your best investment is going to be some type of income generating property.

Speaker 2

That's the only thing I can think of that's going to be able to keep up with this.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I agree 100%. We did a study. We went back and looked at appreciation over the last 10 years. Now I did this for cherokee county, but all the other surrounding counties are very, very similar. We follow the same patterns, right? So the last 10 years, the average annual appreciation of residential real estate has been 9% every single year over the last. That is unsustainable number one. But that is crazy. If you bought a property 10 years ago, you're looking great. Right now You're looking pretty if you've been holding onto real estate over the last 10 years in this area.

Speaker 4

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Speaker 1

But you look at places even down at the beach, like I look at Hilton Head, at St Simon's all the time those homes have gone through the roof. But quite honestly, if I was going to, you know a lot of people think real estate's high and they're going to overpay. My opinion is, if you're going to buy a house and put renters in, traditionally I think there's some risk there on the downside in the short term. But if you're going to buy something, if you buy a condo or a house near the beach that you can put in a rental program, to me that makes sense because you're able to set the nightly rate and even use it yourself to build legacy, things like that. But I just think that over the next 10 years I'm not going to say you couldn't go wrong.

Speaker 1

It's very property specific. Right it is. You can buy one house in the neighborhood and lose your shirt and wear the house down the street. We could have been just fine. So it's very property specific, it is. But you know, think about Tom, if interest rates did lower and you could get a 5% 30-year mortgage, what do you think would happen?

Speaker 2

Oh, you're going to have buyers coming out of the woodwork dude.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and I just if. And if that happens, what happens to home prices?

Speaker 2

oh, that goes through the roof, yeah which?

Speaker 1

I mean look at it right now.

Speaker 2

I mean we're the number of transactions that are occurring right now. Um, we're on pace about what we did last year, but last year we were nationally. We were off 32% or something like that. So it's way, way down. So you throw more buyers into the mix and more demand. Oh, it's just that value is just going to be continued to have that upward pressure on it. So, yeah, that we've been talking about that. Listen, these rates drop.

Speaker 1

Which creates a whole other problem though, because now you have inflation that those numbers get into the CPI, right, yes, so then you're going to have a whole other inflation problem. The whole market pullback this year has recently, in the last few weeks, has really been OK. What's inflation doing? And maybe the feds can't lower rates as the way the market thought they could in January, and I just don't think that they can, or at least they'll have to do other programs that don't that don't lower interest rates for mortgages for sure, because I just think it is there's fire still burning and I think we'd just be putting gasoline on it, and I don't. It's not that it's bad that the home prices are going up, but you just run into affordability issues.

Speaker 2

Well, we already have an affordability issue, and that's the one thing that I continue to look at and I'm just shaking my head. I mean, what is the income to mortgage payment ratio that you consult with folks on?

Speaker 1

I mean, what percentage would that typically be? Yeah, I mean typically. You don't want your payment being more than 25%.

Speaker 2

Exactly. So. Do you know where we're at right now? 41. Oh, that's the normal. No, that's the Atlanta area. We're at 41%.

Speaker 1

So people are paying 41% of their incomes going to their mortgage.

Speaker 2

Correct, if you were to buy a house today, an average price home today, putting 20% down, taking a 30-year fixed mortgage on it, you're 41% based off of the average income that we have, which is like around $70,000 a year.

Speaker 3

So that's creeping up.

Speaker 1

I would argue if you're making 70 grand a year, you're not buying a house right now.

Speaker 2

Well, that's why they're not. And here we go. You're not yeah.

Speaker 1

Your household income has got to be probably north of 200,000.

Speaker 2

Well, that gets you back into that 25% ratio that you were just talking about.

Speaker 1

Or the ability to save the down payment. Now there are programs. I'm sure you've seen them. What 3%, 5%, yeah they're out there.

Speaker 2

They help a little bit to shrink that gap a little bit. But that's a big gap that we're trying to close down. Going from where we're at 41% down to 25, that's a big incentive. I mean, that's a lot of wherever that money comes from, or a program. That's a lot.

Speaker 1

For so many families when we set the family mission statement, it's to give their kids opportunities going forward, and I think the assumption is that the kids would at least maintain the same lifestyle that they had. They have now and then they hope to propel them into the future but no one really thinks about if you don't want your kid living in an apartment, then you you're going to need probably to be able to gift 50 to a hundred thousand dollars to help with that down payment.

Speaker 2

Yeah, yeah, and even so, even with that, we still have a mortgage payment that we have, that we're having a hard time digesting.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I'm assuming that coming out of college, you had to be making anywhere from 55 to 75,000. And then and then after, uh, well, yeah, I think in terms of business majors I'm sure there's other majors that teachers aren't doing that. But yeah, no, it's a tough nut to crack, or you have to go. Where is a $300,000 house? Where is that?

Speaker 2

Well, you could find one. Probably not anything. You and I would want to go in. Just being honest, they're going to be fixer uppers. They're going to need a lot of work, um wait a minute.

Speaker 1

There's no track homes anymore at 300 grand you know there's no more track homes at 300 grand. All the no, you're not getting any new builds at 300, unless you go way north.

Speaker 2

If you go up into like a daresville and up and down, you know, up into those areas there's some new developments that are coming up and and you can get into. I think I just sold one up there. I want to say it was in the low 300s. It's a starter house, um, but it was way up in calhoun is where it was. It was up in calhoun development up in calhoun um adairsville, those types of areas, little, small, little communities. There's some national builders that are starting to to do some things up there, but they're still I mean they're 325 to start. I believe I'd have to double check that. But yeah, that's where you got to go and so if you're working in the city or in inside the, you know you've got an hour and a half commute With no mass transit. Yes, yes, exactly. So yeah, it's, you know it's a struggle for folks.

Speaker 1

I mean, are there any particular trends that you're noticing right now in the real estate market?

Speaker 2

Trends is, you know, we have a lack of inventory. The resale market has got a lot of constraints because folks that do have a mortgage on their property that have been hanging onto it for at least two years, they have a 3% rate correct and they're having an awful hard time transferring that into a 7% rate. So they've made the financial decision to hang tight. We're not doing anything, we're not moving, we're not putting the house on the market. So I think we've talked about this in the past where people were selling.

Speaker 2

You know, three, four years ago people were selling their house just because they wanted to move. Very little motivation was needed in order for you to sell your house and move. Now, today's market, the trend is you got to be highly motivated. You got to have a real reason to be putting that house on the market and moving. A job change, a life change of some sort, a job change, a life change of some sort something's got to be pretty motivating for you to do that. That's leading to a lack of inventory with the same, if not more, demand for housing, and it's put a lot of pressure on the housing market.

Speaker 2

That's one of the trends that we see New construction, my buyers I talk to them about new construction right on day one have you considered new construction? And most of them are like no, it's too expensive. And I'm like, listen, we're going to go look at new construction because that's where the inventory is number one. Number two is that's where the incentives are. The builders are savvy enough where they can give a little bit of incentives from a financial standpoint. Most resell sellers don't, for a variety of reasons.

Speaker 1

So anyways have you seen a trend with these? I keep reading about these house hacking by young people where they're buying a house and renting out all the rooms. Have you encountered any of that with any of your buyers?

Speaker 2

Not not a whole heck of a lot, but I talk about how house hacking all the time I would love for my young kids I've got a young daughter. I keep on telling her. I said you need to become a house hacker, but she wants. You know, she wants a brand brand new house with everything done. I'm like man good luck.

Speaker 1

Basically, you buy a house, I guess you fix it up a little bit. Then you get roommates, you charge them rent. They're paying you essentially the mortgage, I guess.

Speaker 3

Yeah, a little bit.

Speaker 1

Then you either sell the house or do you buy another home. I'm not sure. I'm unclear what happens after the hacking itself, yeah, the hacking itself.

Speaker 2

You've got a choice. You can either hang on to it and continue to live there and do what you're normally doing, or you can sell it and roll it over into something new. So you've got some tax advantages depending on how long you've held on to it. From a tax standpoint, you've got to hang on to the property for a couple of years, otherwise it's going to be capital gains. So so you get a little bit of maneuvering in there. You got to talk to an agent once again, an accountant once again, financial planner, um, to make sure that you don't get yourself into a tax um liability there. But yeah, yeah, house hacking has been around forever and um been pretty popular.

Speaker 1

What do you think is going to happen with the rest of 2024 when it comes to real estate?

Speaker 2

I think we're going to be in. I think volume from a number of transactions are concerned, I think we're going to see a little uptick from last year. The rates went into effect late 2022. So last year's market was kind of in a shock. You know, anything new always has a shock period. It's starting to wear off. So we're going to see a little uptick with transactions this year. I don't think we're going anywhere with rates. Everybody was waiting for rates to come down. I just I don't see it, Especially with the latest. Can you hear that dog in the back?

Speaker 1

Yeah, this is a dog friendly podcast, okay.

Speaker 2

All right, good, but I don't see anything happening with rates. I think they're going to hold steady, especially with the new numbers with inflation coming out. I just don't think the Fed's going to do anything to stoke that fire any further. Values I think we're going to continue to see an increase in values. What is it going to increase? I don't think we're going to see that 9% trend that we've seen over the last 10 years. Percent trend that we've seen over the last 10 years.

Speaker 2

Last year, depending on what report you look at, was anywhere from three to five percent increase in values in last year, and last year was a you know it was a rough year. This year we're starting to see that starting to tick up again. So maybe, you know, five percent, six percent, we may see that this year and, believe me, we're trying to do everything we can to like calm that down. Cause it's just I didn't think it was going to get to this point. As far as affordability issue, I didn't think we would get this far as far as that gap in between people's income and mortgage payments. I just didn't think it was going to be sustainable. But here we are.

Speaker 1

But more and more people are moving to this area, so that doesn't really help us when you don't have enough housing supply demand.

Speaker 2

Yes, we've got a lot of people moving into this area. It's wonderful to have the economic base that we have here in the Atlanta area. However, it comes with a lot of strain on the real estate market and housing.

Speaker 1

Well, what advice would you give to a buyer or a seller right now?

Speaker 2

For buyers I would say first of all, get yourself a great agent. You're going to need them in order to get you to the closing table. This is not something you can do on your own. You can find the house on Zillow, you can find it out there, but if you want to get to the finish line, you've got to engage an agent sooner than later. Number one. Number two is get ready to compete. This is not a down market. It is still a seller's market. So you're going to have to be aggressive and make sure that you're ready to go. As far as sellers are concerned. Kind of the same thing, expect. You know the buyers are getting more, are more selective this year.

Speaker 2

The buyer pool used to be huge about four years ago and has shrunk down. A lot of people have been priced out of the market for all the reasons we've been talking about. So the buyer pool is smaller. It's still competitive. But sellers these buyers are picky. They're going to, so you're going to. It used to be. You just throw a sign in there. You didn't even have to do your laundry. Leave the dishes out, no big deal. You're going to have to clean the house up. You're going to have to make it curb friendly. It's going to have to look pretty because these buyers, they're happy renting, continuing to rent right now until they find the house that they really want, that they really want. So, um, from that standpoint, that's, that's how I would advise buyers and sellers in today's market. Both of them need agents, obviously. Yeah, and advice.

Speaker 1

All right. Well, I think it's challenging. I look at real estate quite frequently and you know it's. It seems like 10 years ago the house that I loved was 650.

Speaker 2

And now the same house is like 1.8. Like it's. It's crazy, the difference percent a year for the last 10 years and I'm getting.

Speaker 1

I'm getting old enough now to where I'm like that's not worth it. I'm still living in those old prices and my own primary home doesn't ever seem to increase in value because nothing around me ever goes up for sale. So I'm on this little street that has basically a dead end and I don't think anything's been for sale in five years. So I go to Zillow. It doesn't give me a really good number and I'm like that doesn't seem right.

Speaker 2

Well, that's an interesting conversation because we're running into the same thing. Because of the lack of sales in the resale market, comparables are really hard to find, so appraisers are struggling, trying to find enough data and information to be able to provide a lender to make a logical decision on is this house worth it or not? And, of course, in the background you got the agent screaming going. I had five offers over asking on this thing. What are you talking about Exactly?

Speaker 1

Well, appraisers still have heartburn from the financial crisis.

Speaker 2

Well, exactly, and they've. You know there's new. You know they have guidelines that they have to abide by and they have to follow. So that's you know. It's not like the appraiser's got free willy-nilly to do whatever they want to do. You know, they've got really really tight restrictions on what they can and cannot use in their reports, so their hands are tied. But yeah, that's an interesting scenario. We were having a hard time with just having enough data to be able to justify prices.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's almost like if you're selling, you almost got to be moving out, like out of the area to really capitalize on it. Cause you know most people will tell me and when I retire I'm going to downsize my house, and I have to tell them. It's like you can downsize the square footage that you want to maintain but you're not going to get a cheaper house If you sell. If you're selling your house in $750 to $1 million and you're going to move somewhere smaller and you want quality and a finished product, it's going to be about the same price and that's what people are understanding. Even these 55 plus communities are pretty expensive.

Speaker 2

They're very expensive. Now there's some advantages and amenities that they wrap up into that.

Speaker 1

You're buying a lifestyle. For sure, if you can find a 55 plus, it has good quality build. That that's even more expensive. But typically they're lower quality builds and they're there. But you're buying that. That easy, the easy button, right yeah, yeah you are.

Speaker 2

But no, we have that conversation almost every day with folks everybody's got this I'm going to sell the big house and I want, you know, I need to find something for $300,000. And, um, you know, I want all this, all of these things and amenities. And I'm like, okay, you're at six 50 right now. What you're talking about? Sure, six 50. You gotta be kidding me. And I'm like, no, I'm not, nope.

Speaker 1

Not not kidding. Yeah, they aren't living in the realtor apps. Yeah, living in the realtor apps, yeah, it's hard. Well, tom, I guess we'll kind of wrap up here. Tell us how to get a hold of you If we're buying or selling a house. How do we find you?

Speaker 2

Yeah, absolutely Our website. We're on all the social medias and all the popular platforms out there. Our website is wwwtownrgcom and from there you can find the links. I think if you go in and you search at your town's realtor, you'll be able to find us all over the place as well. Instagram, youtube we got a pretty good following with YouTube. Now do a lot of video content with information and helpful content about the local area, but that's how you reach us.

Speaker 1

All right, Tom, thanks for your time today.

Speaker 2

Absolutely. Thanks for having me have a good one. Thanks, Casey.

Speaker 3

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