A Wiser Retirement®

281. Crypto Update: Tariffs, Ripple’s Victory, and What’s Next for Investors

Wiser Wealth Management Episode 281

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Join us for this episode of A Wiser Retirement® Podcast as we dive into the rapidly changing world of cryptocurrency. From Bitcoin’s price swings to regulatory breakthroughs and Ripple’s legal victory, major developments are reshaping the market. Tune in to learn how these shifts could unlock both new opportunities and risks in today’s digital asset landscape.

Related Podcast Episodes:
- Ep 277: Tariffs, Trump, and Turbulence: Making Sense of Market Mayhem
- Ep 275: Crypto Update: The U.S. Bitcoin Reserve, SBF’s Prison Interview, and 24-Hour Nasdaq Trading

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Bitcoin's Reaction to Market Turmoil

Speaker 1

Bitcoin hit its all-time high. At the same time, the dollar was near its all-time high. But, now, just a few months later, the dollar is testing some lows. Right now, bitcoin is 89,000. Correct, but it was at 100.

Speaker 1

So it didn't go up with the dollar. You know it's not an inverse relationship, it kind of does its own thing. Welcome to a Wiser Retirement Podcast. Are you curious about what's been going on in the world of crypto? I'm Casey Smith. Today I'm joined with Robert Swarthout, founder, ceo, portfolio manager of Teton Crypto Capital. Once a month, we like to do an extra podcast for you guys, just focused on crypto and everything related around that. So, welcome back, robert, glad to have you with us again. Yeah, happy to be here. So let's uh kind of dive in here. We have a long list of things that we want to cover. Um, I will start by saying uh, this trump and tariffs and has created mayhem in the market, because the market doesn't like uncertainty and right now we don't know if a business can be profitable or not profitable.

Speaker 2

It changes day to day it changes day to day?

Speaker 1

Or are we going to stop getting stuff from China, which is probably not a bad thing? Are we going to start getting it from the Philippines instead? Where are we going Right and it's been very interesting to see Bitcoin's reaction to all this. I will say, for the first week of all, the drama Bitcoin held up pretty well, which is very surprising, because I look at a Bitcoin as a like what? 10x, the Nasdaq or?

Speaker 3

something like that. As far as volatility, Three to ten, it just depends on the day. It can be quite the ride, but it was, like you said, holding its own and surprising many. All of a sudden you started hearing the words decoupling happening. Quite the ride, but it was, um, like you said, holding its own and, um, surprising many there, you know. All of a sudden you started hearing, uh, the words decoupling happening, um that and that that is not happening. To be very clear Right, Right Decoupled for a week yes, but but but in crypto that's a month.

Speaker 1

So right, yeah, Right. So you know thinking about um that in, you know, in our portfolios, you know we've had this pullback from $100,000. I tell everybody it's a 10-year investment, so we don't really care what it's at, because we're not going to look until we're 10 years down the road, or nine and a half years at this point. But I still wouldn't say that I don't think anything's changed. We had the world's kind of changed, but if anything, I feel like this probably promotes more non-standard transactions and alternatives to maybe even the USS dollar in some cases?

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 3

I mean, there's certainly this section of crypto that in a previous life they may have been buying gold in this environment. But now it's the Bitcoin crowd, it's the digital gold that they think it's the solution to all the problems.

Speaker 3

It's probably not, but it is maybe a solution to some of those problems. Potentially and it's just been interesting to watch it you it's, you know it's. It's when you talk about risk on askets, it's almost the epitome of that, like it's not going to get more extreme. Maybe maybe you go further down the market cap of cryptos and they become even more extreme, but it's um, you know the last 22 days or I guess he announced them on this second, so the last 20 days have been crazy.

Speaker 3

Right, it feels like it's been three months um, I know yeah um, but yeah, we are only 20 days and and you know it's just, you know we were talking before we started recording. Like you know, just generally, you know, for some announcement with china happens in a positive way like oh my gosh, hold on like everything is going to go up, correct in theory, um, and I can only imagine what um you know I can't imagine bitcoin does the opposite. In that case, um or crypto, I think it would probably follow the market, but it's um.

Speaker 1

It could be like jet fuel um powered, but if you look, at bitcoin price, you would think that when a dollar gets stronger, the bitcoin would fall off. That's not what was happening. Bitcoin hit its all-time high. At the same time, the dollar was near its all-time high. Right but now, just a few months later, the dollar is testing some lows right now Bitcoin is 89,000. Correct, but it was at 100, so it didn't go up. It's not an inverse relationship, it kind of does its own thing.

Speaker 3

In some sense it has. I mean it's somewhat following the NASDAQ but kind of creeping along. The NASDAQ being closed on the weekends, bitcoin keeps trading this last weekend Bitcoin when it was up like 4% or 5%.

Trump Family and Crypto Banking

Speaker 3

That was surprising people. We've learned not. The trust runs on the weekends because when the markets open, the equities markets open, it all resets. It could reset, yeah, but it has held its own and you know, like I said, it's at 89,000 now. I think earlier in the month, if I'm not mistaken, it was in the high 70s, so it had pulled back a good amount, right. But now it's just kind of, you know, chugging along. It's in a, it's in a channel and it's just kind of testing the top test in the bottom. It's kind of bouncing around. So, um, and it's really just a wait and see approach. It's, it's there's no way to describe it other than it's waiting on the tariff situation to be figured out.

Speaker 1

So I was, uh, I, the Trump family, and it said they were the most canceled family on the face of the earth for the last four years for banking and that they had moved most of their things to crypto related assets. And is that you know? It doesn't mean that they put all their family wealth into crypto. Their family wealth is still in real estate. But I think the transactions that they're using were stable coins, I assume.

Speaker 3

You know I haven't seen tons of details around that, but what I can speak to is they got debanked in a big way, right, the Trump organization.

Speaker 3

Right, it's all political, very political, but that was also happening in the crypto world is Operation Chokepoint 2.0. I think you could probably put those two things together the political side for the trumps, and then just generally banks getting really well, having to get really stringent around having crypto customers because regulators were political in that sense, right, right, um. So you know, this is slowly getting cleaned up. You, you recently had heard that the occ is allowing. You know, I think we talked about this last time OCC is allowing banks to custody crypto. This is one of the many different regulators and they are all slowly kind of marching into lockstep here about. Crypto is not the end of the world and banks in the financial system will be able to kind of interact with it, which is a big relief after four years of constant battle and being trying to put out a business.

Speaker 1

So I think the I don't want to say the older generation you know I'd pick on them because sometimes young people don't know about this stuff as much either. But when you walk into the bank and you see more crypto type language, that's going to make people feel more comfortable, right? About crypto in general.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and you know it's again, it's still early days. It's again, it's still early days. We don't have regulations. We have stable coin. Legislation is one of the things on our list here. It's progressing. It is it's been marked up where this house and the Senate both had bills that got voted on that Now they did the reconciliation between the two, so it's back there for them to vote on. So it is by far the furthest a crypto bills ever made it. Trump had said that he wanted this on his desk before the August recess it's. You know, I don't fully understand Congress's schedule, but it seems like it could be on that path to that being achievable. And that's just the first Lego block of what will be all crypto regulation, because stable coins are, admittedly, the most simple of them all.

Speaker 1

So Well, getting into our our list here there's even some talk. Well, I guess we'll stick on the Trump family for a second. There's another article in the Guardian that I found talking about that Trump is actually going to deregulate crypto instead of regulate it, and there competing news on this.

Speaker 3

Yeah, again, anytime you read news, you got to figure out what their angle is, because there's the other angle somewhere else right, or multiple angles for that matter. Um, so, as part of Trump getting an office, um, whether the agencies had or the new um chairs were in place yet, um, for instance, like the sec, the staff was already starting to do the work. Um, in this case, the sec was the SEC. The staff was already starting to do the work. In this case, the SEC was the one, at least from the crypto perspective, that was the most overhanded with regulation by enforcement. The last three or four years. They had started rolling it back, dropping cases, doing, in my opinion, correcting a lot of wrongs, and it appeared from the outside that crypto was not going to be regulated at all anymore. Um, and that is not the case. Um, there the sec is certainly moving forward with I've seen a couple of the cases where there probably was some crimes committed, and they're moving forward with that as they should.

Speaker 1

Um, it's a job.

Speaker 3

Yes, it's their job, and immediately. We want to be regulated correctly. We don't want to be not regulated at all because we want to be taken seriously as an industry. So it was cool to kind of see that. But there are, you'll see, these articles, like the Guardians, one of them, that it's like you know. They generally are going to be left leaning, so they're not liking what this current administration is doing. So right, it's just unfortunate. But so, speaking of cases getting dropped, uh, ripple and sec, yeah, you know, we've gosh, we probably spent a dozen episodes and maybe more on this thing.

Speaker 1

Um, and it's like, every time I read this thing, I'm like the people who who won were the attorneys. Oh, 100, hundreds of millions of taxpayers lost and that's true on one side because they were funding the sec, right um?

Speaker 3

and then the Ripple's attorneys definitely won out, because Ripple has said they've spent over $150 million on legal fees. Wow, at the end of the day, obviously they had to defend themselves and was worth every single penny of that.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Ripple's Victory and Strategic Acquisitions

Speaker 3

Which is just crazy to say, but that's the world we live in these days. So the Ripple and the SEC have jointly agreed to both drop their cross appeals.

Speaker 3

Um cause that was the stage that this case was at Um, the the court had originally um said that ripple had to pay $125 million fine. Ripple had put that in escrow pending the appeals and um they have the secs agreed to request to have the court reduce that to 50 million. Um, so ripple is going to get back 75 million plus some interest there. Um, and more importantly and I think this didn't get picked up in the news as much the SEC has agreed to request that the court um remove the injunction that that had been put in place in Ripple about selling securities and had to do it in a lawful way, which no duh.

Speaker 3

I mean, it was kind of like a silly. You know, follow the law or you're going to get in trouble, right? Well, duh, I'm going to get in trouble anyways. But I think that one probably had more consequences for Ripple if they've ever wanted to go public because all of a sudden they're selling, you know, they're putting securities out on the market with their stock, so, but this is pending Judge, Judge Torres ruling or being a fine with it, and it sounds like the commission technically hasn't voted on this, because my guess is the chair wasn't there yet.

Speaker 3

They were waiting on Paul Atkins, which is another thing on our list. As of today's Tuesday, the 22nd, as of literally yesterday afternoon, he got sworn in, so it could happen this Thursday. They seem to kind of vote on those things on Thursdays, I tend to notice, so we'll see, but we're getting close on. So obviously he's going to be a pro crypto SEC chair, pro crypto. But you know, if anything, like I just want someone balanced, like I just don't want someone that has is on a warpath against I don't, I don't care who it is. I, I don't care who it is, I just generally like free markets and this was not been a free market the last four years. So but yeah, it's having him in place. He does seem to be pro crypto. He's said some very positive things about crypto but again, gensler had done the same thing at MIT. Like I keep going back to this I was excited for Gensler because it wasn't.

Speaker 1

Jake.

Speaker 3

Right, I didn't realize how wrong I was going to be in that moment. Yeah, um and uh, you know, and maybe Gensler wanted to be positive, but he got marching orders from somebody else, um, that he was gonna do something different. And man did he uh, act very different on it. So right, Right.

Speaker 3

But anyways. But yeah, that was big news for Ripple and the SEC and you know the market didn't react all that much to it because I think at this point it was assumed this, some form of this, was going to happen. You've seen enough cases outright dropped by the SEC. This was by far the furthest along. So you know it in some ways is going out with a whimper, but we were getting close to maybe giving our. I would imagine the next time we do a podcast we'll be able to have our final update, final, final, final update on this one.

Speaker 4

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Speaker 1

Slash guides Now let's get back to the episode Ripple. At the same time is making an acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. What does Hidden Road do?

Speaker 3

Hidden Road is a prime broker. They interface with institutional capital or institutions and they were basically the bridge between the crypto world and the traditional finance world.

Speaker 3

They settle $3 trillion a year in trades already so pretty sizable. And you can see Ripple slowly starting to put together these pieces where, like Brad Garlinghouse and David Schwartz, the CTO of Ripple years ago probably four or five years ago made the comment that they had the ambitions to be the Amazon of the crypto world. And you're starting to see some of these pieces what could be their plan come together. Okay, they're buying a prime broker. They had they. Last summer they spent, I think, $250 million on buying a um, a custody firm out of um Europe that focused on institutions. So they're all sudden. I it would not surprise me. At some point we had an update where it said ripple bought a bank. They need a banking license. In my opinion, they have money transmitter licenses in 50 States.

Speaker 3

Now they've got a lot of pieces that you know, in weird ways, provide a lot of value. They're just not extracting it yet. And kind of building this big suite to to focus on institutions, so yeah, um. And kind of building this um big suite um to to focus on institutions. So yeah, I think this is technically the second biggest crypto deal ever. Um. You know it was a mix of stock, um, xrp and um, some ripple shares, but um in cash. So yeah, it's a big deal. And they even said that they plan to do post-trade um settling on the xrpger through Hidden Road, and eventually all of it will happen there. So they're starting to weave these pieces together, or at least have a plan to do so. So it would be cool to see how that rolls out.

SEC Regulatory Shifts and Stablecoins

Speaker 1

So, still staying on the Ripple topic, the lawsuit was all about. It was XRP. Is XRP a security?

Speaker 3

or not they had claimed that Ripple was selling unregistered securities, which was XRP.

Speaker 1

So, taking on to the next point, that's really big. The SEC say that stable coins are not securities.

Speaker 3

Correct, yeah, and it was just kind of like this came and went in the news. It was like you almost expect the SEC to say this now. Right, four months ago this would not have happened. But yes, the SEC has come out and said stable coins are not securities. And yeah, no duh, because it's backed by treasuries.

Speaker 1

I'd say let's explain to our listeners.

Speaker 3

So stable coin is backed by treasuries and or in the sec specifically said stable coins that are not um uh, yield bearing. So if they became yield bearing then it probably starts to come back in their jurisdiction, which makes some sense, right? But they did say stable coins that are not yield bearing. So all that really means is the issue where it gets to keep all that yield right now, that 5% that they're getting. That's a great business to be in.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 3

When you have, you know, like tether granted it's not all treasuries, but like Ripple's stable coin, or even USDC. I mean, USDC is $60 billion and they're making 5% on that.

Speaker 2

Not a bad business.

Speaker 3

They have filed to go public and their S1 is circulating a little bit. It's an okay business because they have, admittedly, a huge headcount. They get 700, 800 employees versus Tether has 100. I'm like, is that the cost of compliance? Or like, what's the big disparity? Like why do we have that gap? So maybe we'll get some answers in that long term, but but it's um, yeah, so the sec said that and what's also not in our notes? The sec recently said that, um, meme coins are not securities. They are more akin to collectibles. Wow, um, so all these people launching meme coins that were a little bit hesitant about their, maybe their, their legal situation probably had a big sigh of relief. That was about three weeks ago, so yeah.

Speaker 1

That does so. These are all big things to me, because we're, we're, we're defining boundaries now, before we were not, we're not defining boundaries at all and we thought we might have a boundary.

Speaker 3

Then, all of a sudden, the sec would just come trample it and come after somebody, right? Like it was, the rules of the road weren't clear and it just created a ton of uncertainty. Admittedly, like we have, you know, magnitudes more uncertainty right now around tariffs, around the whole economy, but like it's a lot of, it was in some ways very much the same.

Schwab's Crypto Trading Plans

Speaker 1

So let's talk about Schwab. Charles Schwab, ceo, is expected to launch crypto spot trading in the next 12 months. What this means is you can trade cryptos directly at Charles Schwab. Yes, without the ETF wrapper.

Speaker 3

Obviously, regulations. We've beat that drum probably to death at this point on this podcast, but regulations need to be in place for this to happen. Um, but schwab has been working on a platform with a couple other traditional tradfi players. Um, instead of using like a coinbase or something, I think, they obviously want to own the whole. Um, uh, they want the fees there.

Speaker 1

You know this this is more my realm now, but what this does is it squashes all these small outfits that we're trying to connect with financial advisors, saying, hey, you can come trade your crypto platform here, and it pretty much eliminates those. Why, if you already have your the rest of your business at Schwab, why would you have this third party? Unless they're going to start giving you access to things that Schwab is not willing to put on their platform? I guess, but but it, it it's kind of a game changer, you know it's. It's kind of like you have a, you have a custom car, and this is great and and you have a small following and then all of a sudden, like ford buys you yes, and I would say that you know all the fragmented, different shops that were trying to come to an advisor like you and say, hey, you do your crypto training with us.

Speaker 3

All that is is fragmented liquidity, like all of a sudden schwab is going to like their size, is going to have good liquidity within their the coins.

Speaker 1

Oh, right, they bring they, they should bring the trading volume with them. Right, absolutely, which makes things more efficient for everybody, correct?

Speaker 3

And you know I again, etfs are great. The ETFs are not the solution to get crypto to the masses, right, and I think that over time that you just trading the, the exact crypto, it'll be interesting to see what happens to the ETFs for the ones that get put in place for some of these cryptos and you would assume that they stick around.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think. I think you're gonna see financial advisors buying ETF over individual cryptos still.

Speaker 3

Why.

Speaker 1

Because it's it's a lot less. There's a lot so much less liability with Binance.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I would assume that the like liability in the sense of crypto you're probably referring to more the custody right, like yeah, and then what it looks like to the client.

Speaker 1

Okay, fair enough.

Speaker 3

I mean custody will get figured out. Custody is not going to be an issue. Right Schwab is willing to touch it and it may be that they use I know. I know bny is working on their crypto custody solution and being being the huge custodian period, um, that that may be the route to go. I have no idea, but, um, it will be interesting to see. And again, do they launch with two tokens?

Speaker 1

do they launch that's? The other thing is like, yeah, you're gonna have like three to choose from, you know? Uh, in that case, some of the of the specialized Coinbase platforms would still be better, absolutely.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and you know, I also think that Coinbase at some point has got to be an acquisition target for one of these big I don't know if it's like JP Morgan or like BlackRock or somebody. Correct. Schwab is probably not going to go out and buy them because they're working on their own.

Speaker 1

And that's relatively widely known at this point. Um, but what does it cost you to buy uh bitcoin or something?

Speaker 3

else at at coinbase um. The fee could be one one and a half percent sometimes.

Speaker 1

So if you do a lot of money, it could be less than what schwab is really good at low fees.

Speaker 3

oh yeah, yeah, I mean, they're going to wring the fees out of this market as much as possible. At the end of the day, I think what will be the biggest change for these trad file buyers is this is a 24-7 market, seven days a week, so they're going to have to in some way, staff for that, I think, at some level. And it's going to be a little bit different for them from a business model perspective.

Speaker 1

It's so funny because Schwab is good at innovating it, I feel like things like this um, but then on the on the back end, the service end, they forget about that wealth, wealth management. It's kind of like southwest. You know, we're still, we're still communicating with the ms dos with them, but client facing, uh, they, they, they're pretty, they're pretty advanced.

Future of Crypto ETFs and Adoption

Speaker 1

You still have the facts. No, we don't have to fax anymore, I guess. All right, 72 ETFs are pending. Speaking of, do we like ETFs versus trading directly? Yeah, 72 ETFs are pending right now for approval to the SEC 72.

Speaker 3

72. And are they all the same?

Speaker 1

Roughly.

Speaker 3

That happens a lot 10, 11 of the 72 are xrp related. Yeah, most of them are spot. Some of them are a 2x um a long 2x short.

Speaker 1

I want long, 2x short. That's stupid. Don't do that people. Uh, but the the one I'm most excited about there's got to be one of them in here is index. Give me one that's index, the market cap weighted I want, want a market cap weighted ETF that has all the cryptos in it. That's all I want. I want my it's kind of like my S&P 500. I want my market cap weighted crypto.

Speaker 3

Yep, so there's a. I'm just quickly looking at this list. I'm probably going to get this wrong, but Hashtex has got a crypto index and Franklin Templeton has got a crypto index and Franklin Templeton has got a crypto index. Where's Bitwise? Bitwise should have a crypto index and Bitwise they have one listed here and maybe oh no they do have a top 10 crypto index.

Speaker 1

Top 10, yeah.

Speaker 3

Yeah, which makes total sense. Top 10 minus stable coins would be. My guess is the way they're going to go about that, because the two biggest stable coins are in the top five, true, um so you're just buying cash at that point, right, that's the point and you're not getting the yield. So absolutely no point. Um, but it's um. It'll be cool to see like I think that that would be a great ETF to purchase.

Speaker 3

That then put two to 4% of your portfolio in it and obviously, from an administrative standpoint, for, like a wealth management firm, like a wealth management firm like, oh my gosh, the overhead is so much lower, right, exactly, um, assuming you like the, the market cap weighted or whatever. However, they're doing their distribution right so, um, but there's stuff in here like, um, some refiling for the ethereum etf still outstaking. Um, so that would actually be a yield generation on that asset, which would be great. Um, because if you hold ethereum, you can stake it now and you get some yield and more so you're in fight. You're fighting the inflation of the Ethereum total supply a little bit, so that that helps you keep on par a little bit better. Right now, if you're holding the ETF, you're actually losing a little bit each day.

Speaker 1

It goes back to. I think we do these news topics and, for people who are kind of close to the space, understand what we probably should do another podcast on usage uses of uh, etfs Um, but it's, um, it's becoming more and more mainstream. Yeah, and I don't think that you've been. Yes, the, the, the Bitcoin at 20 cents and all those stories.

Speaker 3

Yeah, uh, that's gone, but I don't think that you've missed the boat when it comes to digital assets yeah, this is again a gigantic wave and we're just starting to see that the tide come up a little bit from that wave right, yeah um, but I I used this analogy the other day because if you think about the internet, if you go buy something on somebody's website, you don't talk to your friends about the thing you bought and how you did the transaction like you don't say oh, my transaction went through like a microsoft data center or an amazon data center like you, just don't leave me.

Speaker 3

Like the internet, just works right, I think that once crypto starts in my opinion, start to um fulfill its, maybe its destiny of sorts, here it it will be in the plumbing of the financial system and you'll just be transacting in maybe a more efficient way, a low cost way, yeah, but as a consumer, I don't think you're going to be touching this and realizing you're touching it all at the same time. I think you may. It may be an afterthought.

Speaker 1

I mean this is not the best example, but it did come to mind this last Christmas. I've noticed that I really valued the people who were selling, that you could use Apple pay, because when I went to buy something I didn't have to enter my address or anything I just did.

Speaker 1

Apple pay. I double clicked on my phone and it knew address, we knew where to ship it, it knew which credit card to charge everything Absolutely, and that's that's the future that, that that's that's the future of, of, of transactions. But I think that's just the beginning of what, because you, you do crypto to that, you add blockchain to that.

Speaker 3

Think of all the purchases that can be done so much more efficiently I mean, I I think that at the end of the day, the blockchain will end up in the background, um, helping with efficiencies in businesses, and that, whether consumers fully get to realize that savings or not, we'll, I guess, see over time, but I think businesses will uptake it for that reason. But yeah, I mean I could, once we have better regulations around banking with crypto which we're probably headed down that path you could totally have a stable coin or maybe even a crypto um within, uh, your Apple wallet, um, do you ever pay for something and not really have to think about it?

Speaker 1

Um, and the transaction have to cost about it. Way down. Yeah, absolutely yeah.

Speaker 3

I mean Visa and MasterCard and all all the traditional um credit card um issuers have gotta be really. I mean, I know MasterCard in particular is really working on crypto but like and I'm sure Visa is, if not they're crazy Like talk about fee compression in their business, like approaching zero would be a big worry for them.

Speaker 1

So all right, Well, thanks, Robert. Thanks for listening to today's episode. If you want to learn more about Teton Crypto Capital, you can reach out to Robert at TetonCryptoCapitalcom and it's also linked in our show notes. Thanks for listening. We'll see you guys again next week.

Closing Thoughts on Crypto's Future

Speaker 2

Thanks for listening to a Wiser Retirement Podcast. We hope you enjoyed today's episode. Make sure to subscribe wherever you're listening. That way you don't miss any new episodes. We'd also appreciate if you could leave a rating and review.

Speaker 2

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