Chamber Amplified

Local Data, Real Impact: How the BOTS Survey Shapes Economic Policy

• Findlay-Hancock County Chamber of Commerce

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This week on Chamber Amplified from the Findlay-Hancock County Chamber of Commerce, we’re joined by Brooke Dirtzu from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to break down the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS) and why you should take part.

The BOTS survey is a short, five-minute snapshot of what your business is experiencing, things like demand, prices, staffing, wage. Those responses become part of the data the Federal Reserve uses to understand economic conditions across our district. Even better? If we collect 50 or more responses  in Hancock County, the Chamber will receive a custom local economic report, giving you early insight into trends before they appear in standard published data.

We talk about:

  • How small businesses play a major role in informing monetary policy
  • What the spring survey told us about staffing, wages, and business conditions
  • How the data can help your business, and the Chamber, plan for the year ahead
  • Which industries the Fed hopes to hear more from (hint: all of them!)

If you're a local business owner or manager, the BOTS survey is one of the easiest, most impactful ways you can shape the economic narrative of our region - and it only takes a few minutes.

Take the survey here. Survey runs through December 15.

Music and sound effects obtained from https://www.zapsplat.com

Doug Jenkins:

Hi everyone and welcome to Chamber Amplified, brought to you by the Finlay Hancock County Chamber of Commerce. I'm your host, Doug Jenkins. Are you looking for ways to grow your business, navigate changing economic conditions, or just stay plugged into what's impacting our region? Well, you're in the right place. Each week we're digging into the challenges and opportunities facing local business owners, whether that's hiring, leadership, technology could just be the day-to-day realities of running an organization right here in Finlay and Hancock County. One quick note before we get into today's episode. And at one point in the upcoming interview, I invent a new word. So there's an Easter egg for you to look out for. Have fun with that one. This week we're taking a look at a tool that gives businesses right here in Finlay and Hancock County a direct way to influence Federal Reserve Policy. It's called the Business Outlook and Trend Survey, or the Bots Survey. And the Cleveland Fed is partnering with chambers all across their fourth region, that includes us, to gather real-time insights from local employers. My guest today is Brooke Dertsu from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She helps analyze the data that businesses like yours provide. We're going to talk about what the BOTS Survey actually measures, how your five-minute response directly feeds into monetary policy discussions. Again, just about five minutes is all it takes to do, and why your participation helps us get a clearer picture of the economic conditions locally. And if we get 50 or more responses, we get a customized local report that can help us better understand trends in the Finley and Hancock County business community, which leads to better programming from the Chamber of Commerce as well. So if you've ever wondered whether your business has a voice in high-level economic decisions or how to interpret what's happening in the broader economy, here's a good conversation to stick around for. And before we dive in, Brooke did want me to pass along a quick disclaimer. The views expressed after this are those of the author, not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. There we go. We got the legal stuff out of the way. Also, one last thing, if you enjoy Chamber Amplified, take a quick moment to leave us a rating or review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It really does help more businesses find the show. Now, let's get into it. Welcome into Chamber Amplified for the first time. We're talking about the Federal Reserve and the upcoming bot survey, or the bot survey that's currently going on, I should say. Brooke Dirtsu, welcome to the show.

Brooke Dirtzu:

Hi, thanks for having me.

Doug Jenkins:

Well, we're happy to have you. We're happy to be a part of uh helping collect responses for the bot survey. And I think that's probably the best place to start is what exactly is a bot survey? Are we going out, we're talking to robots, that type of thing?

Brooke Dirtzu:

Uh well, it's a c it's a clever name to catch people's idea, but it really stands for the Business Outlook and Trend Survey. And I should start one step back. So I work for the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, um, and I work in the research department. So we use this survey and other anecdotal data on economic conditions, employment, wages, prices that we collect from contacts across the fourth district to inform monetary policy. So one of the version that we're talking what one of the collection methods we're talking about today, which is the bot survey, um, we we talk to business or we work with chambers of commerce to collect this data. They they um are distribution partners, and um the bots collects um these kind of standard uh standard kind of economic indicators on business conditions, which it would be like demand for products or services, employment and wages and prices from businesses in the fourth district. Could I say one more thing? So one of the great things about the bot survey is we can reach businesses that we haven't encountered before. And especially with our partners, they're they're amplifiers. So we're able to talk to a lot of smaller businesses than we can than we do on our other surveys. So we're really excited to get um the perspectives of the smaller companies. And I just want to can I I forgot to do my disclaimer, which is um anything I say today um is is not necessarily from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or representative of the of the Federal Reserve system, but from Ruckter Tzu.

Doug Jenkins:

All right. Well, we got all of our bases covered there. Um, what I really like about this, and and you touched on this is that uh I think a lot of times small businesses don't feel like they really have any sort of impact on what's happening at higher levels of government. This helps the Federal Reserve look at what's happening and impacting our local business community, and then when they make their recommendations, they're using information derived from this to make those recommendations to the federal government on what to do with monetary policy. So it's a very quick, very easy way to be impactful on the things that actually are impacting our local business community.

Brooke Dirtzu:

Exactly. So the business should take or the survey should take less than five minutes for any business owner to fill out. Um, we asked general movements in some of those standard indicators that I mentioned, and we're able to compare those against some of the things that we see in our larger panel survey. So it really tells us are we seeing the same things across our district? Um, and we can understand if thing if people in different areas are experiencing the business conditions differently.

Doug Jenkins:

Let's talk a little bit about uh the kinds of questions that are included on it. Maybe the best way to do that is to look at some of the findings from the last bot survey, which happened in the spring. Uh, and that was our first time really getting in it and getting that out to members. Um, what were some of the things that stood out to you that came as a result of the spring survey? Obviously, that's a little bit of a lagging indicator, and that's why you do it twice a year. Uh, but uh I think it helps people kind of develop a feel for what you're looking for.

Brooke Dirtzu:

Yeah, so we ask people um about, for example, their business conditions um in the prior six months and an outlook for the next six months. And uh we asked so we asked that in April um earlier this year. And the prior six months as of April, people there were people who said or 47% of the sample said that they were they saw had seen an increase in business conditions. And then the outlook um had about 53% of people saying that they saw that they expect to see an increase in business conditions. So it will be interesting now, six months later, to see what this next round of businesses say if they're if they're seeing if their outlook um is equally as pessimistic or equally as optimistic. Um we also asked about their staffing levels. And it looked like people anticipated um, you know, the majority of the people, 54% of the people said they plan to make no changes to their staffing levels both in the prior and uh the next six months. And so that largely uh tells us that people expected those to be flat. So then if we went to look at something like wages and salaries, um, it looks like people anticipated um fewer increases in the next six months as of April 2025. So in the prior six months, people had raised uh their wages by 50 or 52 per sorry, 52% of participants said that they had raised their wages or salaries. And the their the forward-looking question, only 39% said they were intended to increase wages. So this kind of tells us a little bit about the normalization of wage pressures. So there had been a huge wage pressure after the pandemic, and this could be um part of that normalization process where people aren't giving these large wage increases as they had been.

Doug Jenkins:

Things kind of settling out in that regard, and we'll see what the latest round of surveys uh have to say on that as well. Uh one of the things that uh that really stands out to me about this is uh one of the first things you said is it's anecdotal. You don't need to break open the books to fill out this survey. Like you said, it only takes about five minutes. With that, if we can locally get, what is it, I think, 50 local businesses to respond? Not only do does that help inform the Federal Reserve on monetary policy, but we also get a very in-depth look at Hancock County or Northwest Ohio, depending on how those businesses break down as they come through on the survey. Uh I would have how can a business take that information and what is in it for them, I guess, once they get that info?

Brooke Dirtzu:

Well, I think the you know the chambers will receive the info once once they get over 50. So we've heard chambers say our I should, I suppose I should say our distribution partners say that they've used that info to do some strategic planning around perhaps programming for their businesses, what they what they had heard or they had seen in the movement of the numbers, or maybe a deeper dive into you know talking to their businesses um about what you know certain certain movements that could be different than other areas because we would we would provide also the overall numbers so you'd be able to compare the two. So perhaps you would see that the businesses in um in your in in your county are are giving more wage increases and anticipate giving more than the overall picture. And then you could you could dig into why that is true.

Doug Jenkins:

That would be, I think, really interesting for Finlay and Hancock County. We we tend to have, or at least we believe we tend to be in a bit of a bubble just because of where we're at. We have a large major uh employer with with marathon petroleum here in town. Uh, like for instance, when uh the Great Recession hit, Finley was certainly affected, but maybe not as affected as other areas. I think this would be a really good way to statistically get into that to see if that actually rings true. So getting that many people involved in the survey would be be very helpful in finding that out. Uh it's pretty easy to do. Obviously, we'll send uh we'll provide the link and I'll have that in the the notes for this. Are there other ways that people can find the uh the survey if they're interested in taking it?

Brooke Dirtzu:

Really, it's through our distribution partners. So every distribution partner has a unique link. So if they if they if there's a business that hears this that's in your your count your area, they should connect directly with you because that you have the unique link and we would want those we would want their response to count to you so you could get to that 50 mark. And really the 50 mark is about having uh you know like enough data to to make some to get some opinions about what's going on in your area and to also maintain um confidentiality of who who's participating.

Doug Jenkins:

So that's a good point too, is it is a confidential survey, so you're not putting in there Doug's widget said this. Right. It's just it's it's it's it's put in there, and then that's your information is confidential from there. Are there businesses that uh or or underrepresented? Can you tell I'm battling a head cold? We're saying we're representative. Are there industries that uh you would like to see more representation from in the survey?

Brooke Dirtzu:

Oh gosh. I mean, all industries are welcome. Um I think that it would be really great to hear from some construction contacts. Um we are, you know, we're looking for more construction contacts in our main panel. So if anybody would also like to join that panel, which is called the source, they can uh they can connect um with with me directly at the Cleveland Fed. Um but we're we're definitely looking for more construction contacts. Um but all contacts are welcome. Oh, I should mention we are also um we we haven't been able to create a big enough sample of egg contacts to do some breakouts that we'd like. We'd love more egg contacts, you know, but that doesn't exclude us really wanting the those hospitality contacts, restaurant contacts, manufacturers, um, all of these businesses, uh B2B businesses that are professional business, uh professional and business services. So, you know, your accountants, your lawyers, uh your consultants, all of those businesses are welcome and any size. So um last last round, I believe we had, let me just quick look. 27% were businesses that had one to four employees. Um that's fantastic. We we need to hear from you. If you're small, um you know, all the way up to 10 10,000 plus employees, you know. But those those smaller employers, they um they're great for panel two. We we want to hear from you. So basically all the businesses talk about.

Doug Jenkins:

Yeah, you involved with the business, take the survey. Uh, is pretty much how we would frame it. Um we will again include the link to uh to take the survey in the show notes for this, and we'll have that posted on social media and everything like that. Uh Brooke, I'm just curious, with you working in the the sort of the data analytics sort of division for the Federal Reserve, you probably see all sorts of interesting numbers and trends and everything like that. What is it that actually drew you to this line of work? Because I think it would be really interesting. And a lot of times I'm thinking for a Hancock youth leadership, we're always talking about different career paths for the our kids. Not that they're not necessarily big chamber amplified listeners, but I'm just curious how uh how you came to be in the in this profession.

Brooke Dirtzu:

Well, Doug, that's a that's a great question. So I started out in adult education and I worked my way into workforce developments and really um started doing some research on talent pipelines from K-12 to college to um to the workforce, or you know, directly K-12 to the workforce, maybe with a program in between. And I would say that chambers are excellent partners in that work and connecting what is happening in in those education areas um to the bus local businesses and understand because you all understand the skills that that those businesses need and um are able to kind of communicate that back to the education system. So to me, it was a motivation of um of understanding how how our bus how businesses function in our economy and understanding how that creates um this kind of beneficial environment to live in so that you can find the job that you want. Um so I I would say that if any um youth are interested, you know, that they should start looking for um programs to to to get into economics. And the Cleveland Fed offers a lot of different internship programs um once you get through or once you start your degree. So you should always keep your eye open for different pro or you know, different opportunities within within the Federal Reserve System if you're if you're interested in economics.

Doug Jenkins:

It's all very cool. I imagine you get to see all of the uh intricacies with the numbers. So I just I was I'm just curious on that regard. In the meantime, the bots survey is going on now through December 15th, correct?

Brooke Dirtzu:

Yes, it opened it opened up this morning. Everybody received their their opening day emails, and hopefully um they're being distributed to businesses as we speak. Our businesses are taking our survey as we speak, and we're very excited to see the numbers. Um, we're hoping to have a really good turnout right now. Uh, so I'm hoping that um if you're a business owner and you're listening to this, that you feel motivated to take the survey.

Doug Jenkins:

Uh Brooke, uh, we appreciate you joining on this. We actually we really appreciate the partnership with the Federal Reserve. I know we had uh you all come in to speak at our fresh brew business back in August uh on the findings of the last bot survey, which was real interesting and not something we had been able to do before. Um, I think it really shows that you're trying to get out there and get out to the communities. It's not uh a lot of decisions made from a bond high, it's a lot of data-driven analytics, and I think that's really, really important to our local business community. So thank you for taking part today.

Brooke Dirtzu:

All right, thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Doug Jenkins:

That'll wrap up this week's edition of Chamber Amplified. Just a few quick takeaways from our conversation with Brooke. First, the bot survey is one of the simplest, most impactful ways for local businesses to help shape how the Federal Reserve understands the economic conditions in Northwest Ohio. That's a mouthful, but it really does influence policy discussions. We can encourage you to take it because of that. Second, the survey takes less than five minutes to do. It doesn't require you to dig into financial reports. You basically click the link in the show notes, you fill out the information, and you're done with it. It's all based on your real world perspective as a business owner or manager. Did I mention I'm struggling with a head cold and struggling to say sentences? We're almost done. We're almost there, folks. Third, if we as a chamber community can gather at least 50 completed surveys, we'll receive a custom local economic report from the Cleveland Fed, and that gives us, and more importantly, you, early insight into the trends impacting staffing, wages, demand, pricing, and a whole lot more. It helps us guide programming here at the Chamber so you get a better investment into your Chamber of Commerce that way. So if you haven't taken the survey yet, you'll find the unique link in our show notes, and that will take you where you want to be so your responses count toward the Hancock County report. Chamber Amplified is a free resource from the Findlay Hancock County Chamber of Commerce, made possible thanks to the support of our members. Their investment fuels everything we do, from business advocacy to leadership development to bringing you timely information that helps your business thrive. If you'd like to learn more about becoming a chamber member, or if you have an idea for a future episode, send me an email anytime, D Jenkins at Finley Hancock Chamber.com. Thanks again for listening, and don't miss the next episode of Chamber Amplified.

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Doug Jenkins

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