Spring Chill: Real Estate Cools, Jobs Stall & Rate Cut Looms

Ciao! Welcome to a new episode of Building Wealth Through Real Estate...Brick by Brick with me, Nico James-Bock, Founder of The CondoWiz™ Group and Broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto.  

In this episode, I dive into the current state of the real estate market and explore the key factors driving property values. I focus on the cost of ownership, job security, and housing supply—fundamental elements that shape how the market behaves. I also touch on regulatory changes and global influences that add to the complexity of today’s environment.

I point out that the media often sensationalizes market stats, which can lead to unnecessary fear or hesitation. From where I stand, this is clearly a buyer’s market—especially in the condominium segment. Inventory levels for new condos remain high, and I expect that to keep downward pressure on prices for the foreseeable future.

My advice to buyers is straightforward: don’t wait for the perfect moment or for the economy to shift. The current conditions offer real opportunities, and now is a smart time to act.

Salient Facts & Next Steps:

1. Bank of Canada to potentially reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at the June 4th announcement.
2. Federal Government to continue negotiations and implement retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. imports.
3. CMHC to oversee the allocation of $365 million for building 767 new homes in Toronto.
4. Federal Government to manage the $2.5 billion investment in low-cost financing for rental housing construction in Toronto.
5. Ontario Provincial Government to work towards building 1.5 million new homes by 2031.
6. Ontario Provincial Government to implement the $2.3 billion infrastructure funding for water and wastewater systems.
7. Toronto Municipal Government to proceed with freezing development charges and offering incentives for rental builders.
8. Toronto Municipal Government to initiate the construction of 8,000 affordable homes through development charge waivers.
9. Toronto Municipal Government to continue implementing tenant protection programs such as the Rent Bank and Eviction Prevention Program.

Ciao 👋🏼

Transcript

🎙️ Building Wealth Through Real Estate – April 2025 GTA Market Update

By Nico James-Bock, Broker – Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty

Spring usually brings warmth, but there’s still a chill in the air—cooling real estate, stalling jobs, and a looming rate cut. Welcome to another episode of Building Wealth Through Real Estate, Brick by Brick. I’m Nico James-Bock, broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto.

Let’s dive into the April 2025 stats, the factors driving the market, and what it all means for buyers, sellers, and investors.

🧭 The 7 Core Drivers of Real Estate

There are 7 key factors that influence real estate values. In this update, I’m focusing on 5 of them:

1. Cost of Ownership – including both owning and renting
2. Job Security
3. Supply
4. Regulatory Changes
5. Global Factors

(Population growth and replacement vs. market value will be covered in future episodes.)

📉 Market Snapshot: April 2025

• GTA Home Sales: 5,601 (↓ 23.3% YoY)
• Average Sale Price: $1,107,463 (↓ 4.1% YoY)
• Inventory: High – ~5 months of supply
• Days on Market: ~28
• Trend: More sales vs. March, but down YoY. Buyers are cautious, waiting for lower interest rates and economic clarity.

🏙️ Segment Focus: The Condo Market

There’s a lot of noise about a “crash” in the condo market. Let’s cut through it:

• Yes, inventory is high.
• Yes, prices are soft.
• But this is a buyer’s market—a strategic window for savvy investors and first-time buyers.

Developers are also pulling back, which could tighten supply in 3–5 years, setting the stage for a price rebound.

🏠 Freehold Properties

Freehold homes continue to see multiple offers in certain pockets. Although the buyer pool is smaller, competition remains for well-priced listings. Sellers in this category still benefit from equity gains.

📊 Economic Overview & Job Trends

• Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate rose by 24,000 jobs in April.
• But total employment has remained flat for 3 straight months.
• Windsor’s unemployment surged to 10.7%, largely due to losses in export-dependent sectors like auto and steel.

(Credit: Sherry Cooper – an excellent, level-headed source for economic trends.)

🏛️ Government Responses: A Multi-Level Approach

🇨🇦 Federal

• Tariffs: Retaliatory action on $21B in U.S. imports (steel, aluminum)
• Housing Funding:
• 
  
  • $365M for 767 homes in Toronto
  • $2.55B low-cost financing for 4,831 rental units (1,075 affordable)
• Capital Gains: Inclusion rate increased for corporations and high-net-worth individuals

🏗️  Ontario (Provincial)

• Housing Targets: 1.5M homes by 2031
• Infrastructure Investment: $2.3B for water and wastewater systems
• Legislation: Accelerating construction approvals and reducing red tape

🏙️  Toronto (Municipal)

• Development Charge Incentives: Relief if 20% of new rentals are below market
• Affordable Housing Initiatives:
• 8,000 units unlocked
• 6,000 rentals planned
• Tenant Protection: Programs to prevent eviction and support renters

🔮 The Road Ahead

While 2025 shows softness in prices and volume, this is a temporary cycle. By 2027–2029, we’ll likely face another severe housing shortage across all types—triggering rapid price acceleration once again.

💡 Final Takeaway

This isn’t a crisis—it’s a correction. We are in one of the most favourable buyer markets we’ve seen in recent years, especially for condos.

Those waiting on the sidelines may miss out!