June 2025 Market Stats Reveal Strength Amid Trade Wars, Inflation & Employment Challenges

Ciao! Welcome to a new episode of Building Wealth Through Real Estate...Brick by Brick with me, Nico James-Bock, Founder of The CondoWiz™ Group and Broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto.  

In this episode, I unpack the June 2025 real estate market stats, revealing a surprising mix of resilience and opportunity amid political uncertainty, rising crime, and record-high housing inventory. From a sharp drop in condo prices to a five-month rebound in sales, listeners will learn how market sentiment is shifting—and why now might be the smartest time to act as a buyer. With key insights on immigration trends, insurance spikes, interest rate forecasts, and emerging hotspots like Alberta, this episode delivers the full story behind the headlines—and the strategies that matter most for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. Don’t miss the expert analysis that ties it all together.

Summary:

1. Home prices declined: The GTA’s HPI dropped 5.5% YoY and average prices fell to $1.1M.
2. Sales rebounded MoM: June marked a five-month high with 5,068 sales (+8.1% MoM).
3. Buyer's market confirmed: Inventory levels—especially in resale condos (>5 months) and new builds (exceed 17 months of inventory!!!). Now is the time to BUY BUY BUY. Be tight with prices and exercise patience if selling (Avg DOM 42). 
4. Condos under pressure: High completions and low demand are leaving units unsold longer (42 days avg.).
5. Crime impacting sentiment: Rising violent crime and carjackings are driving caution and hurting demand.
6. Insurance costs surge: Home premiums in Ontario rose 84% in the last decade due to climate/flood risk.
7. Net migration shifts: Ontario is losing people to provinces like Alberta due to high costs and policies.
8. Immigration slowing: Canada’s Q1 2025 PR intake was the lowest in four years, though Ontario still leads.
9. BoC rate outlook: Key interest rate is 2.75%; may drop to 2.25% by year-end pending economic data.
10. Affordability improving: Lower prices (because of adjustments/incentives) and rates are helping buyers—especially those ready to act now. BUY BUY BUY.

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Transcript

June 2025 Market Stats – Highlights from Nico James-Bach

There's a lot going on in the real estate market in the first half of 2025. This is now reflected in the June 2025 TREB market stats.

Price Trends & Activity

• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark dropped 5.5% year-over-year.
• Average GTA home price is down 5.4% to $1,101,691.
• Home sales reached a five-month high at 5,068 units, an 8.1% increase month-over-month.
• Seasonally adjusted prices dipped just 0.1% from May to June 2025.

Market Sentiment & External Factors

• Total transactions dropped slightly (–2.4%) year-over-year.
• Uncertainty driven by political changes and tariff announcements starting in January 2025 significantly impacted buyer sentiment and employment.
• Days on market rose 40% (from 30 to 42 days YoY), with condos lagging due to oversupply and soft demand.

Inventory & Buyer’s Market

• Record-high completions in 2025 have flooded the market.
• Many sectors in Southern Ontario are now in a buyer’s market, with over 5–7 months of inventory.
• New construction market is even weaker, with 17 months of inventory and only 42 new condo sales in Toronto in June.
• Buyers are seeing price incentives and concessions, especially in the condo and new-build sectors.

Macro Conditions

• Rising crime (e.g., home invasions, carjackings, store looting) is affecting housing confidence.
• Homicides in Toronto rose 18% YoY; 12,000+ vehicles were stolen in 2024 alone.
• Climate-related damage is also driving up insurance rates: Ontario home insurance increased 84% from 2014 to 2024.
• Ontario has the highest flood exposure in Canada, contributing to those premium hikes.

Migration & Demographics

• Ontario and BC are the only provinces with a net population decline, due to emigration.
• Alberta is gaining from interprovincial migration, with 27,000 newcomers from Ontario/BC in Q1 2025 (+3% YoY).
• Nationally, Canada admitted 104,256 permanent residents in Q1 2025—the lowest Q1 in four years, with total arrivals (PRs + temp) at 817,000.
• Ontario drew 197,657 immigrants from July 2023 to July 2024 (42% of Canada's total).

Policy & Economic Outlook

• BoC overnight lending rate is currently 2.75%.
• Next announcements:
  • Inflation update – July 15
  • Interest rate policy – July 30
  • GDP data – July 31
  • Unemployment update – August 1
  • BoC expected to hit 2.25% by year-end depending on U.S. conditions.

Affordability & Summary

• Homeownership affordability improved in June 2025, driven by lower prices and borrowing costs.
• Despite higher listings, economic uncertainty and safety concerns are keeping many buyers cautious.
• TRREB supports federal crime-reduction policies and calls for more funding for public safety and the justice system.

Ciao ciao