Is the GTA Housing Correction Changing Shape? Your November 2025 Market Stats Breakdown

The November 2025 data tells a deeper story about where the Canadian economy and GTA housing market are headed next.

Ciao! Welcome to a new episode of Helping YOU Build Build Wealth Through Real Estate...Brick by Brick with me, Nico James-Bock, Founder of The CondoWiz™ Group and Broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto.  

In this episode, we break down what the latest employment numbers, mortgage rate trends, and TRREB housing data are really telling us beneath the headlines.

In this episode, you’ll learn

• Why strong job growth is supporting confidence but not driving housing demand
 • What falling prices and flat month-to-month changes tell us about the correction
 • Why detached homes are now the weakest segment in the GTA
 • How downtown condos are showing early signs of price stability
 • The structural factors pushing inventory higher
 • What the Bank of Canada’s position means ahead of the December rate decision
 • Where buyers, sellers, and investors should focus as the market recalibrates

This is not a crash narrative. It’s a cycle story. And understanding where we are in that cycle matters.

Transcript

Is the GTA housing correction changing shape? Let’s break down the November 2025 data.

November delivered a surprise on the economic side. Job growth came in well ahead of expectations and GDP held up better than many forecasts suggested. But when you look at housing, a different story is unfolding. Stability in the broader economy does not automatically mean balance in the real estate market. Right now, the signals inside the data matter far more than the headlines.

Ciao! Welcome to a new episode of Helping YOU Build Build Wealth Through Real Estate...Brick by Brick with me, Nico James-Bock, Founder of The CondoWiz™ Group and Broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto.  

This is the moment where the market starts rewriting its own rules.

Jobs Are Supporting Confidence, Not Driving Demand

Employment rose by 53,600 jobs in November, pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.5 percent. Most of those gains came from part-time roles and the private sector, with youth hiring doing much of the heavy lifting. That’s important because it reduces fear, but it doesn’t necessarily create urgency. Immigration caps have also tightened the labour pool, which flatters the unemployment rate. Wage growth remains contained at roughly 3.6 percent. In short, the job market is supporting confidence, but it isn’t yet powerful enough to drive a surge in housing demand.

Prices tell us where we really are in the cycle. The average selling price in the GTA is now just over 1.03 million dollars, down more than six percent compared to last year. The MLS Home Price Index shows a similar decline. Month-to-month changes are almost flat, which is exactly what a steady correction looks like. This phase isn’t about dramatic drops. It’s about a slow recalibration as the market works its way back toward balance before confidence fully returns.

What’s changed most is how uneven the correction has become. Detached homes are now the weakest segment in the market. Prices are down about eight percent year over year, and that softness shows up both in the city and in the suburbs. Detached housing has traditionally been the most resilient rung on the ladder, but this cycle is different. Buyers now have negotiating power in this segment that simply didn’t exist during the pandemic years. The adjustment is happening from the top down.

At the same time, downtown condos are quietly showing early signs of stability. Prices in the 416 are down only about 1.7 percent year over year. Sales volumes are lower, but pricing has held for a second consecutive month. This pattern mirrors what we saw in the early 1990s, when condos led the decline but also found their footing earlier than low-rise homes. Employment, transit access, and proximity are starting to matter again as the city regains some of its gravitational pull.

Supply remains elevated, and not just for cyclical reasons. Active condo listings have hit record levels for nineteen straight months. Rental listings are also approaching record highs for November outside the pandemic period, with investor-owned units spending more time on the market. On top of that, demographic shifts are becoming more visible. Listings tied to estates and power of attorney are up ten percent from last year and nearly eighty percent compared to a decade ago. That’s not a temporary trend. Aging homeowners are transitioning properties, and slower markets make that supply more apparent.

Mortgage rates are another area where perception and reality don’t always line up. The gap between advertised rates and what borrowers are actually securing remains wide. Lenders are open for business, but they’re competing quietly. Credit unions and monoline lenders remain especially aggressive. As we head into the Bank of Canada’s December tenth announcement, the central bank remains focused on price stability. Stronger economic data reduces urgency, while softer demand keeps flexibility on the table. Market expectations lean toward a rate hold, with a meaningful chance of a modest cut and a very low probability of an increase. The real advantage right now isn’t timing the announcement. It’s execution.

So where does that leave everyone?

For buyers, detached homes offer choice, leverage, and value that hasn’t been available in years.
 For sellers, pricing discipline and patience are once again essential.
 For investors, downtown utility and rental demand are playing a stabilizing role in the core.

The November data confirms this market is searching for balance, not collapse. The cycle feels familiar, even if the details are different. The opportunity lies in reading the signals clearly and acting deliberately.

Stay tuned, stay sharp, and stay ready. The next Bank of Canada announcement comes on Wednesday, December tenth, with the final inflation report following on December fifteenth.

And as always, I’m here helping you build wealth through real estate… brick by brick.

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 Ciao 👋🏼

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