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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Why the Bond Market Wants Rates to Fall

August 11, 2025 • Kevin Peranio • Season 4 • Episode 9

💥 Why the Bond Market Wants Rates to Fall

The bond market is flashing a clear signal: rates want to go lower. Labor is softening, inflation is easing (but not gone), and messy jobs data revisions are adding fuel to the Fed’s decision-making fire.

It’s a volatile mix economic uncertainty, jobless claims hitting cycle highs, and global GDP shifts all pointing to a market eager for cheaper money. But with tariffs looming and small business confidence shaky, the path forward is anything but smooth.

📉 The yield curve has un-inverted, the Fed’s September meeting is in focus, and bond traders the “smart money” are betting on a slowdown. Could this be the peg down in rates we’ve been waiting for?

Episode Highlights:

00:00 – Live from Newport Beach & senior management meeting vibes
01:46 – Mizuho data & the “messy” jobs report aftermath
02:23 – Bond market buying the dips & the 450–420 Treasury range
04:15 – Labor market softening vs. inflation trends
06:19 – Political shake-ups at the BLS & Fed implications
07:16 – Birth-death ratio in jobs data and Kathy Wood’s take on BLS revisions
09:43 – QCEW data & massive past job revisions
11:14 – Fed dot plot & dovish policy signals
12:18 – Lowest rates in 4 months & market sentiment
13:14 – Government jobs, severance delays & ripple effects
13:56 – Healthcare & teaching jobs trends
14:23 – Earnings season movers (Palantir, Nvidia)
14:47 – CAPEX slowdown for small businesses
15:30 – Castaways Park & TPO manager’s retreat recap
16:00 – Jobless claims hit new cycle high (1.974M)
16:52 – Fed governor resignation & dovish replacement
18:20 – European Union GDP slowdown & tariff impact
19:16 – Safe haven assets & bond market moves
19:45 – California MBA Western Secondary preview
20:07 - Susan Malazu's retirement transition
20:24 – Spotlight on short film “Spirit” by Zoe Maturo
20:54 - Final Thoughts

🎧 Stay smart. Stay ready. Stay informed.
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Kevin Peranio

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