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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Oil Supply Shock Could Push Inflation Higher

March 16, 2026 • Kevin Peranio • Season 4 • Episode 40

0:00 | 12:28

Oil Shock, Housing Disinflation, and Market Fear: What’s Driving the Economy Right Now

From Park City, Utah, KP checks in with a macro update on the forces currently shaping inflation, interest rates, housing demand, and financial markets. While the latest CPI report shows inflation cooling to 2.4% headline and 2.5% core, markets are focusing on something else entirely—rising geopolitical tension and the risk of higher oil prices tied to uncertainty surrounding Iran and global supply routes.

KP explains why housing is quietly becoming one of the biggest anchors pulling inflation lower, even as energy risks threaten to push prices back up. With the global oil supply facing potential disruption and key commodities like aluminum and fertilizer exposed to Middle East supply chains, markets are shifting into risk-off mode, sending investors toward the U.S. dollar and away from stocks.

The episode also explores what’s happening inside the housing and mortgage market as the spring buying season begins. Despite higher interest rates, mortgage locks are rising quickly as buyers reenter the market and existing home sales continue to hover near a 4 million annual pace. KP explains why housing demand remains resilient and why life events, not just rates, continue to drive purchases.

Beyond housing, the conversation dives into deeper financial market risks, including growing stress in the private credit market, where redemption requests at major funds have raised concerns about liquidity. KP also discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the outlook for Treasury yields, and how the flow of global money is reacting to geopolitical uncertainty.

The episode closes with industry updates from Washington and California policy discussions, along with a preview of upcoming housing finance events and what they could mean for the mortgage industry.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 – Housing slowing inflation and the latest CPI data
0:24 – Credit conditions, borrowing rates, and corporate spending
0:50 – KP checks in from Park City and sets the macro backdrop
1:20 – Why Iran tensions and oil supply risks are moving markets
2:00 – Global oil flow, energy prices, and inflation risk
3:00 – How housing is anchoring inflation lower
4:00 – Commodity supply risks: aluminum, fertilizer, and food costs
5:00 – Mortgage locks surge during the spring buying season
6:20 – The flow of money: stocks selling, dollar strengthening
7:00 – The Fed meeting outlook and Treasury yield trends
9:10 – Private credit redemption concerns and market stress
10:20 – Housing policy updates and mortgage industry advocacy
11:20 – Upcoming industry events and outlook for the weeks ahead

Stay informed. Stay prepared. Stay ahead of the market.

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Kevin Peranio

Host