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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Oil Prices, Inflation, and Mortgage Rate Outlook

March 30, 2026 • Kevin Peranio • Season 4 • Episode 42

0:00 | 14:59

Inflation, Oil Volatility, and AI Disruption Navigating a Confusing Market Cycle

From Corona, California, to Newport Beach and the Bay Area, KP checks in during a week where geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility, and economic uncertainty created a choppy environment for markets. While the Federal Reserve continues to emphasize inflation over labor, the reality on the ground tells a more complicated story, especially for those struggling to find work in a still-fragile labor market.

In this episode, KP breaks down how rising oil prices tied to global conflict are pushing Treasury yields higher and keeping inflation concerns elevated. He explains why the Fed’s messaging remains focused on inflation, even as employment challenges persist, and how that dynamic is shaping interest rate expectations. With the 10-year Treasury reacting sharply to energy-driven shocks, the question becomes: is this a temporary spike, or a shift in trend?

KP also dives into real-time mortgage and housing market activity as the spring buying season ramps up. Despite volatility in rates, demand is building, lock volumes are increasing, and there’s growing confidence that if rates ease, a wave of pent-up demand could drive a surge in transactions.

Beyond housing, the episode explores the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence on the economy. With massive investments flowing into data centers and AI infrastructure, now surpassing traditional office construction, KP highlights how this shift is redefining productivity, capital allocation, and even the future of jobs.

Wrapping up, KP shares a powerful leadership message on staying steady, focused, and resilient during uncertain times—reminding listeners that while markets may swirl in the short term, long-term trends still matter.

Episode Highlights:
00:00 – Fed focus: Why inflation is taking priority over labor
01:00 – Market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions explained
02:30 – Oil prices, bond yields, and inflation fears
04:00 – Why the 10-year Treasury reacted to global conflict
05:30 – Mortgage rate outlook: Lock now or wait?
07:00 – Spring housing market and rising demand signals
08:30 – Earnings season preview and consumer health insights
10:00 – AI investment boom and the rise of data centers
11:30 – How AI is reshaping jobs and productivity
13:00 – Updated economic forecasts: Inflation, GDP, and unemployment
14:30 – Market volatility and timing expectations
16:00 – Leadership mindset: Staying steady in uncertain times
18:00 – Why short-term shocks don’t always change long-term trends

In a market driven by energy shocks, policy shifts, and technological disruption, staying informed—and grounded in data—can make all the difference.

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Kevin Peranio

Host