#202 Predictability is the enemy

Progressão

Progressão
#202 Predictability is the enemy
Jul 27, 2026
Jani Sarajärvi

There is a debate that runs through football coaching like a fault line. On one side: all training should be game-based. On the other: players need drills with a lot of repetition. The two camps argue past each other, as if the choice is binary.

It isn't. And a volleyball study can help us understand why. Today we walk through a 2023 paper by Paulo Caldeira and colleagues — research that sits close to the intellectual home of this podcast, with Duarte Araújo and Keith Davids among the authors. The setting is volleyball, but the implications belong to anyone who has thought about representativeness in their training.

The study took skilled young players and gave both groups the same three attack options against the same three block configurations. Same possibilities, same reps. One difference only: one group knew in advance what was coming, the other had to read and decide in the moment. That single variable, pre-arranged versus emergent decision-making, changed everything. The group that had to read the situation improved substantially more, and kept improving after the study ended.

In this episode: what representative decision-making actually means, and why a decision is representative when it is made off the same online information the game provides. What functional movement variability is, and why the best performers don't repeat one perfect technique but find slightly different solutions each time. Also, a football example of how to constrain the option space without losing the decision.

Further reading

The Progressão book is being translated into English — more on that soon.

🌍 More at progressao.fi
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👥 LinkedIn @Project Progressão

Episode Artwork #202 Predictability is the enemy 12:50 Episode Artwork #201 DISCUSSÃO MUNDO: Roger "Ruxi" Bonet – Spain, the World Cup, and the team as skill 1:06:49 Episode Artwork #200 Two hundred Tuesdays: still Progressão 15:53 Episode Artwork #199 Potentiality, not talent: why the forest matters more than the trees 19:53 Episode Artwork #198 Culture as a methodology 13:07 Episode Artwork #197 DISCUSSÃO MUNDO: Rodrigo Picchioni – data, scouting, and what we can't measure 50:47 Episode Artwork #196 Game models & Ecological dynamics 12:57 Episode Artwork #195 Trained for one game, faced another: a France U21 case on representative practice 12:00 Episode Artwork #194 The metaphors football lives by 17:37 Episode Artwork #193 Resonance: the foundation of skill? 13:47 Episode Artwork #192 DISCUSSÃO MUNDO: Vicente Raja – radical embodiment and resonance 41:09 Episode Artwork #191 Representative design: does your training really reflect the game? 14:14 Episode Artwork #190 Beyond small-sided games: train the situation 14:40 Episode Artwork #189 Drills vs games: a false debate? 12:09 Episode Artwork #188 Game intelligence: back to nature 12:09 Episode Artwork #187 Game intelligence 11:36 Episode Artwork #186 DISCUSSÃO MUNDO: Jarkko Tuomisto – skill, groove, and the game 43:34 Episode Artwork #185 Pelada: naked football environments 9:25 Episode Artwork #184 Environment and culture in enskilment 8:35 Episode Artwork #183 Teaching and learning in enskilment 12:36 Episode Artwork #182 Enskilment: growing into skill 9:27 Episode Artwork #181 DISCUSSÃO MUNDO: Duarte Araújo – ecological dynamics and skill learning in football 46:14 Episode Artwork #180 Football as a complex phenomenon: sub-groups and local coordination 8:57 Episode Artwork #179 Football as a complex phenomenon: game logic and team dynamics 8:48 Episode Artwork #178 Football as a complex phenomenon: game scales 10:51