Betting Weekly: Liga MX

Liga MX Apertura Matchday 1 Betting Picks & Predictions - Guadalajara vs Juarez & more

June 30, 2022 BetRivers Network
Betting Weekly: Liga MX
Liga MX Apertura Matchday 1 Betting Picks & Predictions - Guadalajara vs Juarez & more
Show Notes Transcript

Get your Liga MX Apertura Matchday 1 betting picks & predictions from Betting Weekly Studios! Cooper Cox and Ryan "RJ" Guertin analyze soccer betting odds for all of the matches this week, including Guadalajara vs Juarez, Atlas vs. Club America, and more. 

Subscribe today so you don't miss a single episode of Liga MX betting action!

you're watching betting weekly on the


0:02

BET Rivers network


0:04

welcome in everybody to the Liga Max


0:07

podcast brought to you in association


0:09

with better Rivers your hometown sports


0:12

book I'm Cooper and my co-host over


0:14

there next to me is RJ as always and


0:17

this is week one of the aperture season


0:20

for league MX uh in Mexico


0:24

we had a really good run last season in


0:26

the playoffs for the uh the cholesterol


0:28

season so really really excited to be


0:30

back and we're gonna have two plays each


0:32

for you how's it going RJ


0:36

I'm doing well Cooper it's good to be


0:37

back it uh feels like it just ended I


0:40

mean it pretty much just did it ended I


0:42

think middle of May so it's good to be


0:44

back short turn around you know we'll


0:46

talk a little bit about uh some of the


0:48

high level uh our important transfers


0:50

that happened and uh hopefully get you


0:52

guys some winners for the for week one


0:53

of the aputure here


0:55

absolutely absolutely so


0:58

um as far as transfers are concerned uh


1:01

we're just gonna kind of touch on


1:02

transfers if they involve the plays that


1:06

we're putting out today there wasn't a


1:08

whole lot that happened I mean this is a


1:10

league that


1:12

um you know generally will attract some


1:14

bigger names we just didn't see it a lot


1:15

so I've seen a lot on Twitter I'm


1:18

following you know some teams that are


1:20

interested in a specific player for


1:22

whatever reason a lot of those moves got


1:24

moved to January so


1:27

um like I said we did have some moves


1:30

that we will discuss a little bit but uh


1:33

we'll get to those as we as we start


1:35

going through our place


1:37

uh if you wanna if you want to start


1:39

with your first one feel free Audrey


1:42

yeah so uh you know my first play is


1:45

going to be on Saturday it involves


1:47

Chivas versus Juarez uh the play kicks


1:50

off Saturday at 6 00 p.m Eastern Time


1:54

from uh from a transfer news perspective


1:57

uh I do have some some knowledge here on


2:00

that as well so I'll touch on that but


2:01

the plumbing on on this matchup is


2:04

Chivas team total over 1.5 and even


2:07

money at Plus 100.


2:09

Chivas


2:11

shebus in my opinion actually could have


2:13

some some difficulty with Juarez right


2:15

uh they they picked up some key


2:18

additions in this transfer window one of


2:20

the teams that picked up key editions


2:21

was was war is they picked up Darwin


2:24

Darwin matches or Marcus uh from La Liga


2:28

from the La Liga side Granada who got uh


2:30

relegated so they immediately scooped


2:33

him up and I watched some highlight to


2:36

him I mean to be truthful like you know


2:37

there's a million players in the world I


2:39

don't know this guy like the back of my


2:40

hand but I did do some some research and


2:43

you know he's a pretty good player he's


2:45

uh I think he's 20 29 years old uh I


2:48

think he's potentially in his prime but


2:50

he's he's like uh


2:52

I don't know how to describe it but he's


2:54

very Nifty he's he's tricky with the


2:56

ball he's tough to uh to get a read on


2:59

and I think who's going to give some


3:00

teams problems


3:02

um especially being up top


3:04

so Juarez were obviously you know pretty


3:06

terrible last year and I think they'll


3:08

almost be a dark horse candidate I mean


3:11

it's a it's a bit of a stretch but I but


3:13

I think they have potential to make a


3:15

run to at least make the playoffs here


3:17

they added a goaltender from uh Pumas


3:20

Alfredo Talavera who's going to be I


3:22

think 40 years old this year I mean


3:24

everybody talks about him like he's a


3:26

big big locker room guy but the fact of


3:28

the matter is he's 40 years old and um


3:31

he's probably not as Nimble as he once


3:32

was but fact of the matter is you know


3:35

this is week one here uh Juarez did make


3:38

some key additions I know my play isn't


3:39

cheapest but I wanted to talk about what


3:41

what Juarez did and I mentioned that


3:43

because when you add a lot of people uh


3:46

that are new to the team right new chefs


3:48

in the kitchen so to speak you never


3:49

know what you're gonna get it could be


3:50

out of sequence it could be out of flow


3:52

in the first match of the league Amex uh


3:54

Chief is relatively uh unchanged roster


3:57

right same Squad as they went in and and


4:00

I expect them to be sound I expect them


4:02

to be much more structured than Juarez


4:04

so I like to play Chivas team total at


4:07

at 1.5 and even money and


4:11

I think they'll they'll definitely be


4:13

able to take advantage of Juarez here in


4:15

this this first round matchup


4:17

yeah


4:19

um I like a a lot a lot of what you said


4:21

and uh obviously I agree uh my my first


4:24

play is actually involves this game as


4:26

well so I'll just go into that and kind


4:27

of respond to some of some of the things


4:29

you said uh my first play is on this


4:32

game I'm actually taking Chivas to score


4:34

in the first half


4:36

um I found that at a minus 102.


4:39

um


4:40

yeah so uh just kind of kind of uh


4:43

echoing a lot of the things you said the


4:45

biggest thing I think is that Chivas


4:47

ended the season very strongly obviously


4:49

they ran into Atlas who ends up winning


4:51

the whole thing couldn't get through


4:53

that that wall but the end of the season


4:56

with six straight winners until that


4:58

playoff loss and they looked great they


5:00

looked like they were playing you know


5:01

the best team soccer of the year as they


5:04

ended the year


5:05

um they didn't really add anybody


5:07

notable but but in this situation to


5:09

open the season I actually think that


5:10

that's probably a positive


5:12

um because teams that added guys or had


5:15

guys that left they're kind of working


5:17

to gel and and are going to have to work


5:19

out some of the Kinks


5:21

but yeah uh looking at the head-to-head


5:24

between these two Chivas has won eight


5:26

and only drawn once they've never lost


5:28

so uh that just kind of shows you the


5:31

history between the clubs a little bit


5:34

um I do think Darwin but she's is gonna


5:36

be a good player in this league


5:39

um I don't know about Juarez just


5:41

because you know I like the additions I


5:44

think they've got a lot of work to do


5:45

and again it's going to take them a lot


5:47

of time to gel with their new players


5:51

um but yeah basically what I'm looking


5:53

at here is I Think Jesus is going to


5:55

come in it's your classic home opener


5:57

against a team that you should be you


5:59

know but they're not gonna they're not


6:01

gonna dismiss them because they're going


6:03

to be amped up for the season opener you


6:06

know the stadium is going to be


6:07

absolutely rocking in Guadalajara


6:10

and uh I think they're they should find


6:12

the net you know at least once in the


6:14

first half hopefully they find the net


6:16

twice in the first half and you and I


6:17

both cash two show plays right there but


6:20

uh yeah yeah so we we both like Chivas


6:24

uh I'm glad that we both landed on you


6:27

know on a team total uh for for Chivas


6:29

that that's good usually when RJ and I


6:31

align the results tend to tend to be in


6:34

our favor so


6:35

um but yeah Eric uh go ahead and roll


6:38

into your second


6:39

yeah but before I jump into that uh Coop


6:42

I just wanted to just lay out the lines


6:44

so so Chivas is minus 140 on the money


6:47

line and Juarez is plus 420. so it's


6:50

it's a pretty steep line I saw some


6:52

books had uh Chivas at minus 165 minus


6:56

170 so there's a little discrepancy


6:57

between books but uh they're they're


7:00

heavy favorites and I expect them to be


7:02

even heavier favorites by by kickoff so


7:04

probably keep that in mind


7:06

I would um


7:08

yeah so so my second play is on Saturday


7:13

as well it's 1005 p.m Eastern Time Club


7:16

America versus Atlas


7:19

the play online out here the play I


7:20

really like is over two and minus 130.


7:23

again you shop around I saw some some


7:26

books had this minus 140 minus 135 I


7:28

found this at -130 which is around my


7:30

cut off but I think this is a relatively


7:33

safe play here in Club America I would


7:37

would say you know they were locked in


7:38

they were solid last tournament uh I


7:41

think they got two of the top transfers


7:43

in this whole whole window uh Jonathan


7:45

Rodriguez from Al Nasir in Saudi Arabia


7:48

arguably in his prime just like my my


7:51

cheese but uh I'm interested to see how


7:54

he pans out how he's used in this in


7:57

this new new Club America spot uh he he


8:00

struggled a bit in Saudi Arabia to be to


8:03

be truthful he didn't do very well


8:06

it was a strange move because you know


8:08

he he had on he had prior success in in


8:11

this league already I mean he was a he


8:14

was a star at Cruz's Soul so to see him


8:16

go there and it was just a weird fit I


8:19

think it's good for him and everybody


8:20

evolved to get him back into sleep


8:23

yeah it goes goes to the arch nemesis


8:25

too right so um it's it's interesting to


8:28

see that and he was the top goal scorer


8:30

in uh 2020 2021 in league MX so maybe


8:34

he's just he he knows he's better fit


8:37

here and he can just come in and hit the


8:38

ground running but he did struggle in


8:40

Saudi Arabia uh the and so that's that's


8:44

one of the top pickups right uh they


8:45

already still have Henry Martin and they


8:47

have uh Diego Valdez right they still


8:49

have the squad a retained majority of


8:52

the squad that they had last tournament


8:54

so I expect them to be extremely good


8:57

this season I mean we looked at plus 400


8:59

on the Futures it's not huge value but I


9:02

mean if I had to flip a coin or you know


9:05

take a pick I I do like Club America to


9:07

to take at this tournament


9:09

the uh okay ongoing with the transfer is


9:12

the second pick up that Club America had


9:14

is Nestor arrojo uh from Celta Vigo La


9:18

Liga


9:19

you know for a whopping almost five


9:22

million 4.9 mil transfer fee he played


9:25

136 matches for Celta Vigo he's a center


9:27

pack he's he's solid he's just a great


9:30

defender uh Club America's known to be


9:34

you know I think they were a little


9:37

little for Less forgiving than they


9:39

normally were last tournament I think


9:41

this is going to help him uh help them


9:44

keep keep the ball out on that a little


9:47

bit better I mean he's a great defender


9:48

coming from La Liga and um and one one


9:52

thing I want to add quick it's not


9:53

relative to this game it's a it's a


9:54

sneaky transfer that that you know I


9:57

want to hear your opinion on after if we


9:58

have time is um uh Brian Castillo from


10:01

from the Ecuadorian side Barcelona SC I


10:03

love the Ecuadorian League a couple


10:06

players that came out of uh Ecuador I


10:09

think one of them signed to Man U a guy


10:11

from independent independente Del Valle


10:13

uh I think a young 22 year old sign with


10:16

somewhere in a big league in Europe so


10:18

Ecuador's got some Talent uh he's 23


10:20

years old he finished in the he was the


10:23

best 11 in the Copa libertadores in 2021


10:26

he's an up-and-coming star so it's a


10:28

good signing for Leon even though it's


10:29

not relative to this match I wanted to


10:31

throw that out there uh but back to my


10:33

play


10:35

excuse me Club America


10:37

versus Atlas over to -130


10:41

I mentioned the transfers that they had


10:43

they retained the majority of their


10:44

squad so they're they're strong and we


10:46

know Atlas you know we know Atlas from


10:49

from last uh last tournament right there


10:51

yeah they're they're a great Squad


10:54

arguably the two best teams facing each


10:56

other arguably the two best teams you


10:59

know


11:00

I I think if this was mid-season I think


11:02

this total would would probably be over


11:06

two like plus money I would I would


11:08

expect it to be a tight kg match but


11:10

week one


11:11

I don't know my expectation is both


11:14

sides uh open open up a little bit the


11:17

place will be rocking and I think over


11:19

two is fairly safe I think there's a


11:21

good chance for for a push protection uh


11:24

and especially in week one you never


11:26

know what you're gonna get I'd like to


11:27

play it safe so we have over two good


11:30

push protection we have a plus Money


11:31

Team total and um I think that's the


11:34

fairly safe route to take in week one


11:37

here


11:38

yeah dude


11:39

um I love the addition of Rodriguez this


11:43

this


11:44

um you know this this club America team


11:46

uh


11:48

once Fernando Ortiz took over as manager


11:51

this team totally turned a corner I mean


11:53

people were people were already riding


11:56

this team off you know uh seven eight


11:58

nine games into the season and it was


12:01

hard to argue with them but the way they


12:02

bounced back they made it all the way


12:04

into the top four got to buy the first


12:07

round of the playoffs and looked really


12:09

good and so you're taking the same core


12:11

of the team now they're healthy now you


12:13

make these big additions uh they are


12:17

favored to win the league and in my


12:18

opinion and in your opinion rightfully


12:20

so


12:22

um


12:23

honestly I mean look out for this club


12:25

America team that they they look like


12:27

potentially a juggernaut


12:30

um but yeah you know you got you got the


12:32

big guns in Club America with the


12:34

transfer and then you've got uh Atlas


12:36

with the two youngsters of top Quinones


12:39

and first


12:41

incredibly you know super crazy


12:44

potential for uh for fudge and and two


12:46

two really really young


12:48

very electric Striker so goals looks


12:52

looks affordable here in my opinion and


12:54

like you said you got to love the push


12:55

protection


12:57

anytime you can can get over to and Liga


12:59

MX will provide over two opportunities


13:02

pretty frequently so uh definitely like


13:06

like this look as well


13:09

um


13:09

so with that I'll hop into my final pick


13:12

here I am going to take goals in the


13:16

form of both teams to score and pumas


13:19

and Tijuana


13:21

um this is one I kind of looked hard at


13:23

for a while and before I decided I


13:26

really liked this one just because


13:27

Tijuana wasn't really trustworthy last


13:30

year uh as far as goal scoring


13:33

specifically on the road


13:35

but


13:36

um analytically they were really good it


13:38

was just like you just kept waiting and


13:40

waiting for for for the deposited


13:42

regression to come with this Tijuana


13:43

team they were number eight in the


13:45

league and expected goals and you saw


13:48

flashes of it here and there where they


13:50

were creating chances and actually


13:52

finding them back on that


13:53

and um they added uh actually yesterday


13:57

I think they added the striker uh Franco


14:00

de Santo the Santo from gustepe in


14:04

Turkey Yeah Yeah from from our from our


14:07

Turkish Super League uh friends over


14:09

there


14:10

um but uh yeah so back to Pumas


14:14

this is a team I actually like you know


14:17

that obviously they've got a lot of


14:19

Shoring up to do defensively but these


14:22

guys had the most difficult and


14:24

congested schedule of any club in in


14:26

Mexico last year it wasn't even close


14:28

you know that that they were dealing


14:30

with concacaf Champions League they lose


14:32

lose you know three to zero on the road


14:34

and the conquer cat final to Seattle


14:36

Sounders from MLS and then they've got


14:39

to turn around like two days later in


14:41

play in the league MX playoffs and uh


14:45

they end up losing one to four uh they


14:47

just got spanked on the road by Chivas


14:49

it just was not a good spot you know had


14:51

had some injuries here and there


14:52

scheduled congestion was just stacking


14:55

up like crazy on them so for this match


14:57

obviously I feel fine about almost


15:00

scoring at home uh you're losing uh


15:04

Diogo who's it's been a very familiar


15:06

face in Pumas for a long time but you've


15:08

got their Star Striker one the Nano is


15:11

obviously returning and then he's he's


15:13

from our Argentina there's another


15:16

Argentina forward that is just coming in


15:19

Gustavo Del prete is coming in from


15:22

Argentina from estudiantus so they're


15:26

going to be powerful in the tag and they


15:29

were number two last year and expensive


15:30

goals allowed defensively so terrible


15:33

you know defensive Club I I I didn't


15:36

look at the exact trim but they were


15:37

leaky at home as well so I like Tio


15:40

wanted to come in here and sneak one in


15:42

I don't hate the over two and a half


15:44

because I could see a scenario where


15:45

Pumas might be able to carry the total


15:47

but with it being the first game of the


15:50

year


15:51

maybe a little rustiness in the first


15:53

half I think one to one is is actually a


15:55

decent possibility maybe two to one


15:58

so I I might have missed it cool but


16:00

your actual official play is both teams


16:02

to score correct both teams have scored


16:04

okay Pumas and Tijuana


16:06

perfect yeah I like that I looked at


16:08

this play uh and was was close to


16:11

actually taking Puma's uh money line or


16:15

or even minus one 0.75 at plus money but


16:19

I I can definitely see Tijuana get on


16:22

the board for sure I do I do like


16:24

bowling teams to score here as well


16:26

absolutely and um so that's that's both


16:29

of our plays I just want to touch on one


16:31

more thing just since it's the first


16:33

show of the year uh talking about


16:35

futures


16:36

we both like Club America plus 400


16:39

that's not that's a very Square position


16:41

because they are favored but I think


16:42

they're really really solid I'm not


16:44

interested in Tigris and I'm not


16:46

interested in Pachuca this year both are


16:48

older teams and kind of shot their wad


16:50

last season both were really good to us


16:52

last season and we'll have to see how


16:53

they look


16:54

um I think you know having Florida being


16:57

healthy for for Tigris is going to be


16:58

big but you know Tigris they've got


17:01

giniak who's approaching 40 years old


17:03

and he just you know you fall off the


17:05

cliff at some point it's just just the


17:07

way the way uh you know father time


17:09

works exactly so


17:12

um but uh if I had to take a long shot


17:14

on a future I'm interested in Santos


17:16

Laguna at 25 or 1 just because they have


17:19

the pedigree they have a pretty pretty


17:20

deep roster it's a team that could make


17:22

a run and you could potentially get


17:24

yourself into a hedging position


17:27

um but anyways


17:30

um we are nearing our our time limit


17:32

here so if you want to recap your two


17:35

plays I'll do the same


17:38

yeah my first play uh is Saturday both


17:41

my players that I first played quite


17:43

achievous Guadalajara versus


17:46

Juarez Chivas team total over 1.5 and


17:49

500 that's a 6 p.m kickoff eastern time


17:53

on Saturday and my second play is Club


17:56

America versus Atlas


17:58

over to goals combined minus 130 and


18:01

that kickoff is 1005 PM eastern time on


18:04

Saturday and just a quick touch on


18:06

Futures like like Coop said I


18:09

I think Juarez is like a very very small


18:12

small small small small small shot like


18:15

.25 maybe 0.10 you know maybe maybe make


18:19

a little bit of money there it's it's a


18:20

total long shot I think I'll look great


18:22

if that happens but it's probably


18:24

probably unlikely and


18:26

I do like Monterey you know I have the


18:28

Jersey on now but I think Monterey's got


18:30

some potential I don't have the line in


18:33

front of me for what the future is I


18:34

don't I don't know if you do but it's uh


18:36

it's certainly


18:38

it's certainly uh there's potential


18:40

because Monterey Rodrigo aguerre right


18:43

the the second leading goal scorer last


18:45

last uh tournament and I wouldn't be


18:48

surprised if he's the the Golden Boot


18:50

winner this year and I think they got


18:53

some potential so that that I throw that


18:55

out there


18:56

yeah that was a big addition that was


18:57

from Athletico San Luis is all right


19:00

yeah yeah that was a big addition for


19:02

for them


19:04

um yeah so uh my two plays I'm also on


19:08

that Chivas team total but I'm taking


19:10

the first half team total over a half


19:12

and a minus 102 just as neat Chivas to


19:14

find the back of the net one time in the


19:16

first half


19:17

and then uh the Pumas and Tijuana game


19:20

are taking both teams to score at minus


19:23

112. so uh those are our four picks for


19:27

the week what's your energy


19:29

excellent yeah I just want to correct


19:30

myself Rodrigo where I came from this


19:33

yeah that's right yeah so right on yeah


19:37

ready to roll hopefully have a great


19:39

weekend


19:40

yeah super excited about about this


19:42

season we had a really good uh you know


19:45

overall overall profit last season but


19:49

we just we just did the playoffs so we


19:51

got to a point where we were fairly


19:53

limited with the amount of games and we


19:54

were still making you guys money so


19:56

really excited to have the entire uh you


19:59

know schedule at our disposal this year


20:02

and looking forward again to hopefully


20:05

helping you guys make some money and


20:07

enjoy watching the games and


20:10

um before you guys leave make sure you


20:12

guys are subscribing please hit the


20:14

thumbs up it helps us a lot and check


20:16

out the other shows on the channel


20:18

everybody's uh been making money year


20:20

round so we'll see you guys next week