Betting Weekly: Liga MX

Liga MX Apertura Betting Picks for Matchday 2, including Puebla v Santos Laguna and more!

July 07, 2022 BetRivers Network
Betting Weekly: Liga MX
Liga MX Apertura Betting Picks for Matchday 2, including Puebla v Santos Laguna and more!
Show Notes Transcript

Check out Liga MX betting picks for the 2022 Apertura Tournament. Matchday 2 includes Puebla FC vs. Santos Laguna, Chivas Guadalajara vs. Atletico San Luis, and Club Leon vs. Pumas UNAM. Join Cooper Cox and Ryan "RJ" Guertin as they break down the betting odds on Betting Weekly: Liga MX!

Get all of your Liga MX predictions and picks here each week from Betting Weekly™. Subscribe today so you don't miss a single episode.

you're watching betting weekly on the


0:01

bet rivers network


0:04

welcome welcome everybody to the league


0:06

mx podcast brought to you in association


0:09

with bet rivers your hometown sports


0:12

book i'm cooper and this is my co-host


0:14

rj and we're going to talk about the top


0:16

flight division in mexico today this is


0:18

match week number two of the apachera


0:21

season


0:22

uh last week we went one and three


0:24

looking to improve on that hopefully


0:25

this week uh we've got three picks total


0:28

for you


0:29

so uh we're really excited to get into


0:31

it um


0:33

rj how you doing buddy


0:35

good coop good to be back again for week


0:37

two looking for some uh redemption this


0:39

week


0:40

and uh you know looking forward to to


0:42

the match-ups in week two i think we saw


0:44

some uh high-flying affairs uh so a


0:47

couple duds


0:48

but uh overall it was a pretty pretty


0:50

exciting week one and i think we'll be


0:52

able to uh to build on our um


0:55

1-3 start to the season


0:57

yeah it was exciting and um you know the


1:00

the thing with the week one in any


1:02

league that you're going to try to


1:03

handicap you've got new players coming


1:05

in new coaches sometimes new tactics


1:08

you just you're not always 100 sure the


1:10

way the teams are going to match up


1:13

overall i feel okay about our reads you


1:15

know specifically it came down to one


1:17

game for us that we were both on we were


1:19

both on chivas goals last week and they


1:21

created a lot of chances and just ended


1:23

up not finding the back of the net which


1:25

happens sometimes so


1:26

um


1:28

you know we we've seen some of these new


1:29

players how they fit in we've seen


1:32

you know teams how they're matching up i


1:34

feel like we have a better idea going


1:36

into match day number two and uh we're


1:38

really excited to to get into it


1:40

i'm going to touch on a little bit of


1:42

transfer news just briefly and and then


1:44

we'll hop into our official picks for


1:46

this week


1:48

um


1:49

tigress


1:50

landed a


1:51

forward an ecuadorian player named jordy


1:55

uh


1:56

caseto or saucedo i'm not actually sure


1:58

how it's pronounced


2:00

um


2:01

he was the leading goal scorer for cska


2:04

sophia which is a hungarian powerhouse


2:08

he scored 16 goals he's 24 years old he


2:11

plays on the ecuadorian national team


2:13

scores goals for them regularly


2:15

um he is a good player the notes i


2:17

watched a little bit of film on him my


2:19

notes


2:20

um i'm gonna say he's he's still a


2:22

little bit raw he's a super great


2:24

athlete he's very strong he's six foot


2:27

one so he's pretty tall tall enough for


2:29

a forward


2:30

um


2:31

he's an adequate finisher um i've just


2:34

kind of got question marks about his


2:35

ball skills so


2:37

you know petigre's tigress pays i think


2:38

it was 5.5 million for him they bring


2:41

him in


2:42

they're they've been looking they've


2:43

been shopping forwards they want


2:45

somebody to pair with zhenyak up top so


2:48

i don't think this guy's going to play


2:49

like like a wing i mean he could


2:51

potentially but his skill set is like it


2:53

looks like they're going to run


2:55

two forwards so so you know 38 year old


2:58

zhenyak


2:59

and then uh yori jordi casado coming in


3:02

um


3:03

you know the i feel like though those


3:05

two guys are going to lead the line for


3:07

you


3:08

and uh it's going to be an interesting


3:09

addition i'm not i'm not really


3:11

necessarily negative about it but i'm


3:13

not totally sold on it either i i it's


3:15

going to take some time for him to come


3:16

in and adjust to to to this league


3:19

because it is a step up in competition


3:21

from from hungary


3:22

um


3:24

so it's it's going to be interesting but


3:26

it that that was kind of our only you


3:29

know decent sized splash of of a


3:31

transfer after match day one i'm not


3:34

sure if he's gonna play this week or not


3:35

but it'll it'll be an interesting


3:37

transfer story to follow


3:40

yeah i've


3:42

i've heard of him i i followed him a


3:44

little bit in ecuador like he's come up


3:46

through the ecuador youth systems he


3:48

actually went turned pro and he was like


3:50

16 or 17 years old which is


3:53

just pretty impressive um you know not


3:55

many not many youngsters get to the top


3:57

flight at that age and


3:59

he's kind of grown i mean yeah he's


4:00

scored 16 goals in 28 matches in the


4:02

last uh you know season and a half so to


4:05

speak in bulgaria over there


4:08

and uh yeah it'd be interesting to see


4:09

how he transfers into league mx i'm sure


4:12

it's a completely different style of


4:14

play but uh let's see how he does


4:17

it is it's it's it's going to be


4:18

interesting to to see him adjust um


4:22

but with that um i know everybody's here


4:24

for the picks and we're here to help you


4:26

guys find winners so rj if you want to


4:29

take us into your first play uh let it


4:31

rip


4:32

yeah so my first play for week two here


4:36

is


4:37

going to be in puebla versus santos


4:39

laguna the match is friday at 10 05 p.m


4:42

eastern time


4:44

pueblo coming off a 4-2 win over


4:46

mazatlan on opening day uh they were


4:49

very impressive you know um they would


4:51

expect to see goals against mazatlan


4:54

right they're


4:54

pretty much one of the more weaker


4:57

um


4:58

defensive side in term in terms of


5:00

metrics uh and from an xg perspective


5:03

which i'll be truthful i don't normally


5:04

look at xg


5:06

however it's i think it's very important


5:08

in the first like early in the season


5:10

and the first few mass days because you


5:11

can't really go by statistics it's a new


5:13

season so xg is fairly important in my


5:15

opinion to look at especially in the


5:17

first probably three to five weeks


5:19

uh and from an xg shop perspective so a


5:22

shock based perspective they they had a


5:24

2.9 xg which which means essentially


5:27

they they should have scored three goals


5:29

or they actually means that and they


5:31

ended up netting four


5:33

um


5:34

and they had about 18 shots


5:37

quite a bit of shots and i expect an


5:40

entertaining match from santos uh as


5:42

well who were victorious and weak one


5:43

against monterey they won four to three


5:46

santos on the other hand had a 3.5 shot


5:48

based xg


5:50

again they they put up four goals and


5:53

and and based on what i saw i watched


5:54

some film from mass day one this is


5:57

obviously gonna be a bit of a tighter


5:58

match up um i don't expect to see


6:03

you know five six goals in this match


6:05

but


6:06

i really do like both teams to score


6:08

here at minus 128. i would expect this


6:11

line to go a bit lower towards kickoff


6:13

just from the natural


6:15

effect that i think the total will


6:16

actually go lower it's over 2.5 at plus


6:19

102 right now


6:21

but i really like both teams to score


6:23

here uh both teams coming off a win both


6:25

teams should be flying high


6:27

i don't really think there's any need to


6:28

to sort of let off the pedal it's just


6:30

you know i think both teams will find


6:32

the net


6:33

yeah yeah good good info there um one


6:36

thing to touch on that pueblo and


6:38

mazatlan match up this is a rematch of


6:41

round one


6:42

of the class sura playoffs from from


6:44

last season


6:45

where pueblo beat mazatlan five to three


6:49

so to me watching that game there was


6:50

almost like a like a personal element to


6:52

that and and mazatlan


6:54

actually was one of the best expected


6:56

goals allowed


6:58

defensively


6:59

last season


7:01

um in in in the class service season and


7:03

so they just kind of like


7:07

they just kind of like threw caution to


7:08

the wind and didn't sit back and they


7:10

were


7:11

it looked like a personal like grudge


7:14

match like


7:16

screw you screw the tactics we're going


7:18

to try to outscore you and that did not


7:20

work out very well for mazatlan


7:22

obviously


7:22

they're not quite as talented as pueblo


7:25

pueblo have some bigger name players and


7:27

pueblo made them pay


7:29

puebla did look good


7:31

they looked great uh for the first like


7:33

ten games of last season uh and then


7:36

they faded


7:37

yeah so you kind of wonder if like if


7:39

this is just this team's identity and


7:41

they're gonna come out the first eight


7:42

nine ten games and go ham again


7:45

um we would totally take that and be


7:47

happy with it especially in this match


7:49

against santos laguna santos laguna


7:52

meanwhile


7:54

beat a monterey 4-3 in an absolute barn


7:57

burner to open the season


8:00

and obviously monterey is one one of the


8:02

most you know the they have one of the


8:03

biggest payrolls one of the biggest


8:05

following so to beat them that way even


8:08

at home was really impressive


8:10

and


8:11

hopefully you guys got that plus 25 that


8:13

that 25 to 1 future locked in for santos


8:16

laguna that was basically the only long


8:18

shot that we gave out in week one so if


8:21

you if you haven't got that future in


8:23

you probably still have time it's i


8:24

don't think it's gonna move much after


8:25

one match but i do think santos laguna


8:28

is worth a little look


8:30

at that price tag uh for the future


8:33

but uh yeah i really really like this


8:35

play just just to uh


8:37

just to recap rj's first play is going


8:40

to be pueblo and santos laguna at both


8:42

teams to score


8:45

so i'll hop into my one and only play


8:47

today but it is a spot that i really


8:50

really like so only one play but feel


8:53

really good about it um going to uh club


8:57

leone and puma's here


8:59

and i'm also going to take both teams to


9:01

score here it's it's going to be a


9:02

multi-unit play for me and my clients


9:04

i've already sent it out i want the


9:06

price


9:07

that we've got right now which is minus


9:09

118.


9:10

um found that that that on on bet rivers


9:14

um


9:16

the way these two teams match up it's i


9:18

have a very hard time a hard time not


9:20

seeing goals in general


9:22

um but both teams of score is just


9:24

priced


9:25

just


9:26

you know a delectable price here at


9:28

minus 118 given the way that these two


9:31

teams match up


9:32

um week one


9:34

leon goes on the road against atletico


9:37

san luis


9:38

gets the w they won 2-1


9:41

they created six big chances in that


9:43

game


9:44

um


9:45

and created 2.78 expected goals


9:48

so


9:49

you know from an analytic point of view


9:51

great production there


9:52

great for them to get the win creating a


9:54

ton of big chances


9:56

on the road they're going to be at home


9:58

for this one


9:59

um but they had two main additions for


10:02

for for week one that i wanted to watch


10:04

before before i put any money on this


10:06

team one was uh


10:08

lucas diorio who is a winger


10:11

out of uh the chilean league he was a he


10:13

was a standout for everton del mar


10:16

he came over and just stepped right in


10:18

actually scored a goal


10:20

uh and then and then joel campbell


10:23

um came over from from monterey


10:26

um and created two big chances himself


10:28

he didn't score any but he paired really


10:30

really well


10:31

with uh with with some of the pieces


10:33

that leon already has in place


10:36

they created a ton of chances


10:38

so uh you know that's good they're going


10:40

to be at home for this one pumas


10:42

meanwhile


10:44

come away with a 1-1 draw to open the


10:46

season against tijuana we were on both


10:48

teams to score there that obviously


10:50

cashed


10:51

but um


10:53

you know these these guys still have


10:55

very very talented players in attack


10:57

with uh you know juan de nino is one of


11:00

the best forwards in league mx you got


11:02

diego comes in off the bench scores a


11:05

goal like in the first 60 seconds he's


11:06

in the game


11:08

um


11:09

so two very talented attacking units


11:12

here and two defenses that were tied for


11:15

second worst defensively last season


11:18

these two defenses


11:19

literally were tied for for second to


11:21

worst so what did these two clubs do


11:23

they didn't do anything to fix that


11:25

issue they literally didn't do anything


11:27

the the only change we see here is byron


11:29

castillo comes in at right back for leon


11:32

and all he does to contribute to to


11:34

their defensive woes is scores an own


11:36

goal for his own team so


11:38

um


11:39

both defenses are going to be swiss


11:41

cheese here very electric attacking


11:43

units i think both teams of score is an


11:45

absolute hammer for these two teams i'm


11:47

going to have multiple units on it at


11:49

minus 118.


11:52

yeah i think that's a good look cooper i


11:55

i will add to it from a trans


11:56

perspective i know we didn't go over it


11:58

but uh


12:00

pumas just did added uh three days ago


12:03

now uh a right winger from from boca in


12:06

argentina eduardo salvio um


12:09

you know i i follow almost all leagues


12:12

he he's he's had a long career i mean he


12:15

was on benfica from july 2012 all the


12:17

way to 2019. okay um 26 matches with


12:21

benfica 51 gold before that atletico


12:23

madrid he started his career um in


12:26

argentina he was on the national team


12:28

until 2020. so he's he's a veteran


12:30

player he's 31 years old um


12:33

and you know every team he's been on


12:36

he's seen the field and has been active


12:37

so i think this could be a sneaky little


12:39

ad for them i don't know if he's going


12:41

to play


12:42

uh but they're adding some potential


12:44

veteran leadership skilled players and i


12:47

think that's going to be huge for for


12:48

them potentially i think he comes in i


12:50

mean he's only 31 years old i'm looking


12:52

at his page right now he looks like he


12:54

like he was taking all the penalties and


12:56

a lot of set pieces for for boca so


12:59

i think he probably steps in and plays i


13:01

don't know if he plays this week but


13:03

he's he's in game shape because


13:04

argentina argentina's been rolling for a


13:06

while now so absolutely


13:08

i think that's that's a good addition i


13:10

mean i i any


13:12

any time you're bringing somebody in to


13:14

provide


13:15

any added service to to dino up top


13:18

it's it's so it's a-okay with me


13:21

so uh


13:23

anyways um that's uh


13:26

that's my play for the week and rj's got


13:28

another one for us so what do you got


13:31

yeah so my second play we're going back


13:33

to chivas right we went there week one


13:36

uh team total over 1.5 i watched the the


13:39

highlights i was out so i didn't see the


13:41

game but


13:42

she was had a ton of chances i mean the


13:44

first goal


13:46

if you saw the game right the forward


13:48

came in the ball was right in front of


13:50

the net the ball he kicked it it bounced


13:52

right off the post hit him in the head


13:53

bounced off his arm and went on the net


13:55

handball i mean it is a hand ball it's


13:57

just like the bounce it took was kind of


13:59

fluky um and then the second goal they


14:02

scored in the first half was was offside


14:04

right so legitimate but they were the


14:05

better team um i think if that first


14:07

goal could have hit off his head and


14:09

went in right that would have been a


14:10

different game a goal in the first 10 15


14:12

minutes i mean we would have an


14:14

onslaught


14:16

yeah yeah


14:18

i mean they just have bad luck bad


14:19

breaks but it is what it is it's


14:20

gambling and that's sometimes you uh you


14:23

get bad breaks so anyways i'm going back


14:26

to chivas um


14:28

you know the the the the numbers uh from


14:32

an xg perspective uh they well first off


14:35

they're back home again right they're


14:36

they're not traveling they're back home


14:39

um i expect them to be extremely


14:40

efficient and hungry because that was a


14:42

frustrating draw for them against juarez


14:44

right i mean they just bad breaks they


14:46

had a 1.9 shop-based xg which you know


14:50

it's kind of about right they probably


14:51

should have scored two goals


14:53

um and san luis


14:55

in week one had a 0.8 xg which they were


14:58

able to find the net once


15:00

uh but


15:01

from an adjusted goal total i i think


15:04

what we're going to look at here uh


15:06

guadalajara


15:07

chivas is plus 101 on the money line on


15:10

bet rivers and


15:13

i i think


15:15

what what we would expect here is chivas


15:17

again to to just be the more disciplined


15:19

team kind of control the pace


15:21

you know st louise is kind of sporadic


15:24

you know it's a team that i can't really


15:26

trust


15:27

um their games are typically filled with


15:29

quite a bit of goals here


15:31

the the goal total is kind of


15:33

interesting over 2.25 at minus 105 but


15:36

i'm i'm taking the money line cheapest


15:38

money line at plus 101


15:40

i think they get it done here this week


15:42

it's a


15:44

it's one of my favorite plays that you


15:45

know out of the six or seven that are


15:47

there and and i think they get revenge


15:49

and get in the win column here against a


15:51

very vulnerable st luis squad


15:55

yeah yeah um i was i was waiting to see


15:58

which direction you you were going to


16:00

end up going with that and i do like the


16:02

money line just because first of all


16:05

atletico san luis


16:07

while they ended the season


16:09

they ended the season really hot on


16:11

offense last season and took that into


16:13

the playoffs but their their leading


16:14

goal scorers gone uh yup herman uh


16:18

bernarami he's he's gone so that's kind


16:21

of like their offensive identity but


16:23

they tried to play the same way last


16:25

week


16:26

and uh and obviously got burned and lost


16:28

at home couldn't play any defense


16:30

whatsoever like you said they were kind


16:32

of all over the place


16:33

um so


16:35

i think chivas plays their game here


16:37

they're going to be more organized


16:38

especially at home and like you said


16:40

they should be hungry


16:41

um i think it's a good spot too i i'm


16:44

probably going to be getting on the fade


16:47

train of this atletico san luis team


16:50

first couple games just because i think


16:52

that they're struggling to find their


16:53

identity


16:55

and i i have to agree this this is


16:57

another good spot for chivas and


17:00

um


17:01

you know if if chivas lets us down two


17:03

or three times in a row maybe we


17:04

reassess at that point but all the


17:06

analytics are in our favor here and and


17:09

it's a very good spot for chivas i agree


17:11

with you


17:13

yeah and like i said i'm i'm a


17:15

statistical guy i use stats a lot i rely


17:18

heavily on them and


17:19

you know i think the first few weeks


17:21

will be a little sort of out of my


17:23

comfort zone to be truthful with you


17:24

because it's not my normal but i have


17:26

found ways to


17:28

adapt and take advantage of the early


17:29

lines and and early in the season uh but


17:32

i think also once we get to like mass


17:34

day six match day seven maybe even eight


17:37

when there's a little more data to work


17:39

with right that's when we'll really


17:40

start to get in a groove um but but for


17:43

me personally that's that's kind of how


17:44

i approach these early season games


17:47

and uh you know we got a plus money play


17:49

and then we got a minus 128 so ideally


17:53

um


17:54

ideally we hit one achieve us you know


17:57

or or i i still think we have a really


17:59

good chance to get both right that's why


18:00

i'm betting these games so um confidence


18:03

is there it's just uh it's early in the


18:06

season so just you know bet responsibly


18:08

but cautiously so to speak


18:10

yeah great great advice there just kind


18:12

of echoing what we talked about a little


18:13

bit last week as we get to know these


18:15

teams we'll be more comfortable


18:17

uh you know risk risking our own units


18:20

and giving professional advice


18:22

um but with that those are our three


18:24

plays for


18:26

uh liga mx match week number two


18:30

super excited to


18:32

sit down on the couch and and watch


18:34

watch and see how these unfold


18:37

definitely one of my favorite things to


18:38

do every single week so


18:40

um just make sure you guys are uh


18:42

please please give us the thumbs up it


18:44

helps us a whole lot and make sure you


18:45

guys are following the whole bet rivers


18:48

podcast channel tons of content for for


18:50

tons of leagues all over the world


18:53

and uh tons of guys that put a lot of


18:55

hard work and effort into this and


18:57

and do a really good job so


18:59

um great great professional advice from


19:01

the whole channel and uh appreciate you


19:04

guys and we will see you for match week


19:07

three