Betting Weekly: Liga MX

Liga MX Matchday 4 Soccer Betting Picks & Predictions - Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM and more

July 21, 2022 BetRivers Network
Betting Weekly: Liga MX
Liga MX Matchday 4 Soccer Betting Picks & Predictions - Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM and more
Show Notes Transcript

Get your Liga MX betting picks for the 2022 Apertura Tournament. Matchday 4 betting includes Pumas UNAM vs. Pachuca, Necaxa vs. Juarez, and more. Join Cooper Cox and Ryan "RJ" Guertin as they break down the betting odds on Betting Weekly: Liga MX!

Get all of your Liga MX predictions and picks here each week from Betting Weekly™. Subscribe today so you don't miss a single episode.

you're watching betting weekly on the


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bet rivers network


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welcome in everybody to the liga mx


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podcast brought to you in association


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with bet rivers


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your hometown sportsbook i'm cooper and


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my co-host next to me is rj and for the


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first time ever you guys can follow us


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and the whole team


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um on because we win on twitter that's


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at because we win


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so um yeah we're excited to to be back


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for this is match day four of the league


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mx season um hasn't been great to us you


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know full disclosure


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so far this season but


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you know we we look over the results


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every single week and the big thing is


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like are the reads good


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reads have been pretty good for for both


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of us we've been a goal away here and


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there just not really getting breaks so


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far


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but um you know we're gonna stay at it


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and we had a great postseason last year


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and we're positive that things will turn


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and


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uh you know results will start coming in


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but


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yeah we're ready to get it going right


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yeah we're ready the tides will


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eventually turn and uh you know match


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day four like i said the data will build


1:09

we'll get to a nice nice spot but again


1:11

confident in the reads they've been


1:12

close a lot of red cards kind of been


1:15

wacky the first few weeks uh but


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like anything else uh regression or or


1:20

or the sort of murphy's law things will


1:22

kind of settle out and uh and get to


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where we want them to be so absolutely


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ready to kick it off right on and we're


1:29

never excuse makers here but there have


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been an abnormal amount of var red cards


1:34

and and all kinds of shenanigans here


1:36

through the first three match weeks but


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um you know if you know anything about


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good


1:42

sports bettors


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if you ever see them on a little bit of


1:45

a down dip it's usually a good time to


1:46

hop on and


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hopefully you guys will hop on and and


1:50

ride ride some of these uh some of these


1:52

picks with us but without further ado


1:54

we'll go ahead and get into it um if you


1:57

want to start us off rj go ahead


1:59

y'all kick us off cooper the the first


2:01

play i'll be on for for match day four


2:04

is uh a matchup between cruz azul and


2:06

pueblo the match is the


2:09

23rd which is saturday uh 805 pm eastern


2:14

time


2:15

uh matchup is between first place you


2:18

know with seven points puebla versus


2:20

12th place uh cruz azul


2:23

you know this matchup is is is a big one


2:25

and and it's basically because you know


2:28

you have cruisers all coming off a three


2:30

to two loss uh against atlas right alice


2:33

is a strong side they always they have


2:35

been the last two tournaments and


2:37

cruisers will look good they they put up


2:39

um


2:40

they put up some shots they they kept it


2:42

they held their own and


2:44

you know at the end of the day uh from


2:46

an xg perspective


2:48

um well first off crucial has found the


2:50

net in all three matches so far to start


2:52

this tournament from an xg perspective


2:54

they've had they have a 2.1 adjusted


2:57

shot base sg which is which is the


2:59

highest second highest so far only to


3:01

atlas


3:02

um so


3:04

at this point i expect puebla to to find


3:07

the back of the net because crucial


3:10

uh based on what i've watched based on


3:12

the match reviews and things of that


3:14

nature they they appear to have serious


3:15

defensive flows right they they've


3:17

allowed seven goals through


3:19

three matches


3:21

um which is a decent amount right


3:23

especially in league mx right it's this


3:25

isn't a league where


3:27

you know the average goal total is over


3:29

three or even around three you gotta


3:31

kind of pick and choose here uh but cruz


3:33

azul are


3:35

having defensive issues uh they're also


3:37

fine on the back of the net and i think


3:39

after two straight losses they're gonna


3:40

be on their heels right they're gonna be


3:42

hungry


3:44

and i expect pueblo to also find the


3:45

back of the net so


3:47

this was a fairly easy play for me uh to


3:50

to spot i see a back and forth kind of


3:53

kind of game with a decent pace


3:55

uh so my play is over 2.5 goals at minus


3:58

-105


4:01

yeah um first of all a good price tag on


4:04

that um just to play devil's advocate


4:06

here as we do sometimes on the show i'm


4:09

looking at cruz azul and their results


4:11

they have allowed seven goals through


4:13

the first three games which is not good


4:14

but in those three games they've played


4:16

arguably the three best teams in the


4:19

league so


4:20

uh you know tigris pachooka and atlas


4:23

who won the whole thing last season


4:25

that's who cruz azul has played but


4:27

chris is always a heavyweight themselves


4:29

so


4:30

um you know


4:32

we kind of touched on it last season


4:33

when talking about this team in the


4:35

playoffs


4:36

this isn't the same cruise as well that


4:38

used to have


4:39

you know arguably the best defensive


4:41

setup in the league


4:42

they're playing a different style of


4:44

football right now and it's not defense


4:46

first i you know maybe you know you're


4:48

never trying to play bad defense but


4:50

they realize


4:52

their


4:52

you know


4:53

inefficiencies on defense and and


4:55

they're trying to get forward and play


4:58

more


4:58

of an attacking style of football so um


5:01

i think this is good also we like riding


5:04

puebla


5:05

to find the back of the net early in the


5:07

season same thing as last year they were


5:09

a wag in the first 10 games so this is


5:11

still early enough where


5:12

you know you know big surprise pueblo


5:15

three matches into the season is sitting


5:17

atop the standings so yeah yep


5:19

definitely like this look


5:21

hopefully we get an entertaining affair


5:23

with no red cards fingers crossed


5:26

yeah i wouldn't be so sure of that i was


5:27

actually looking for card markets on on


5:29

some of the books those are tough to


5:31

tough to spot but


5:32

if you have a book that that offers red


5:35

cards in the league mx matches i mean


5:38

you know we'll take it take a pic and


5:40

there's a good chance it will hit


5:41

especially the way things have been but


5:43

definitely definitely lately for sure


5:45

but uh we're putting that behind us so


5:48

um moving on to the next match that


5:50

we're covering this will be my first


5:51

official play for the show


5:53

looking at tigress and atlas


5:56

this is saturday as well the 23rd


6:00

if you follow the league at all you know


6:01

that this is a big heavyweight matchup


6:03

atlas has won the league two out of the


6:05

last three seasons


6:07

um


6:08

obviously tigris is you know a huge very


6:11

very popular team with a with a big


6:14

payroll and and some big-name players


6:17

but most notably is their last


6:18

head-to-head which last season in the


6:20

playoffs was one of the craziest playoff


6:23

ties i've ever witnessed


6:26

you know tigris goes on the road to


6:28

guadalajara gets down


6:30

0-3 to atlas


6:32

takes it back home


6:34

gets up four to one so now it's tied


6:38

four to four


6:40

90th 90


6:42

90 minute plus 10 so the 100th minute of


6:45

the match


6:46

uh alice is awarded a penalty puts it


6:48

away moves on to the final


6:51

um of the class serious season


6:54

on an aggregate score of five to four so


6:56

that was absolutely insane


6:58

obviously these clubs have history


7:00

playing against each other and high


7:02

scoring affairs


7:04

and then looking ahead to this season


7:07

now


7:08

we talked a little bit about analytics


7:10

and expected goal tigris is actually


7:12

number one at home and expected goals


7:14

this season


7:15

they've looked really good at home as


7:17

far as creating chances


7:20

atlas usually really really sturdy at


7:22

the back have not been a sturdy this


7:24

year they played a 2-3 road loss at


7:27

toluca


7:28

beat cruz azul at home three to two


7:30

um so they're a little bit lacks


7:32

defensively to start the season and i


7:34

don't know if it was if it was the short


7:36

break you know we were talking about it


7:37

before the show i don't know if it's the


7:39

short break if it's some of these guys


7:41

are looking ahead to the world cup but


7:42

there's been a little bit of a lack of


7:44

focus in this league and um


7:47

it's it's it's hard to spot because it's


7:48

not the same thing on every team but for


7:50

this atlas team specifically they


7:52

haven't been as good on defense


7:54

and um i think we could be in for


7:56

another shootout here so i'm going to


7:57

take tigris and atlas over 2.25 goals at


8:02

a minus 110.


8:04

um i think you have a really good chance


8:06

to cash this


8:07

and uh if not cash you know you only


8:10

lose half your risk if it ends up on two


8:12

goals but i think these teams are going


8:14

to get after they're fully rested


8:16

um


8:17

you know obviously we talked about their


8:19

history


8:21

a little bit of player news for this


8:23

match


8:24

you got


8:25

andre pierre zhenyak who is a star


8:27

striker for tigris


8:29

he is in a little bit of controversy at


8:31

the moment because


8:33

he didn't get the vaccine and like that


8:36

that's potentially affecting him playing


8:37

in the mls league in mx all-star game


8:39

which i don't know why it matters if you


8:41

can play in league mx why can't you play


8:44

against the mls teams i'm not sure about


8:46

the league rulings


8:48

but


8:49

it came out that he had an achilles


8:51

problem and that's why he was going to


8:52

miss it and now they're saying it's


8:53

because he doesn't have the vaccine so i


8:55

just have him written down as


8:57

questionable


8:58

i would assume he plays but the news has


9:01

been kind of shaky


9:02

um but even if he doesn't play


9:05

you got cordova who comes back from a


9:07

red card who can fill in and obviously


9:10

the newcomer jordi uh casiero made his


9:13

debut last match looked pretty good had


9:15

a big chance that he hit it right off


9:17

the goalkeeper's face but he had energy


9:19

it was fast so i definitely like goals


9:21

on this one t-gris and atlas over 2.25


9:25

yeah um


9:26

uh how do you pronounce his last name


9:28

again i want to make sure i get it right


9:29

it's jen yeah


9:30

jin yak uh i i didn't know that but i


9:33

always slips the mind so


9:34

jinyak um he also got hurt last match in


9:37

the 77th minute he left on a stretcher


9:40

um so there's what you stated but


9:43

they're saying he might be might have a


9:45

decent injury okay um i don't know if


9:47

it's long term or not but i truthfully


9:51

you know


9:52

i never base my my my plays or calls on


9:55

one player um i know there's always


9:58

controversy or other hand handicappers


10:00

you know do and they


10:02

obviously have their own opinion and


10:03

everybody does but personally i never


10:06

like to to do that or place that on a on


10:08

a match you know i guess if i have a


10:10

team total i'd consider it but you know


10:12

at the end of the day these are


10:13

professional players uh it's like next


10:15

man up mentality and um yeah i wouldn't


10:18

be too too concerned here uh with that


10:21

news


10:22

absolutely and and again you know tigris


10:24

does have players that are looking for


10:26

the opportunity so


10:27

um the total was low enough here that i


10:30

i want it whether he goes or not if he


10:31

goes it's a bonus if he doesn't i'm


10:34

still going to be on like here for at


10:36

least a unit but uh what what do you


10:38

have for your second play rj


10:41

cooper my second play is going to be on


10:45

the 24th which is uh sunday


10:48

sunday at 8 pm east eastern time


10:51

pachuca versus pumas


10:54

i'm looking at a team total here i like


10:56

pachuca


10:57

team total over 1.5 at minus 108.


11:00

pachucar coming off a 1-1 draw against


11:03

uh mazatlan they recorded 23 shots and


11:07

you know it's worth noting that they


11:08

haven't been beaten at home in their


11:10

last 19 home matches and 20 out of the


11:12

last 23 premier division matches


11:15

boomers play sunday but they also play


11:18

wednesday um so


11:21

you know they play midweek whereas as


11:23

pachooka does not they they have um


11:27

you know i don't know we we talked about


11:28

this at the beginning of the show too um


11:31

that you know when when teams have sort


11:33

of that midweek matchup thrown in right


11:35

i think from a coaching perspective from


11:37

a player perspective


11:38

you know you don't have that weak break


11:40

and and you know there's fatigue and


11:41

there might be some rotation here um


11:44

pumas return home


11:46

and a pretty favorable matchup and i


11:48

expect them and i'm not going to say


11:50

they're all they're going to overlook


11:51

pachuca here but pachuca have a nice


11:53

spot coming off a draw uh they're a very


11:56

strong team at home


11:58

uh i do like their money line at minus


12:01

120 uh but you know


12:04

you never know in this league red cars


12:06

and things of that nature i just felt


12:07

like team total was was the safest play


12:10

um in a matchup that i liked for them


12:13

and


12:14

um


12:15

i think they'll they'll net two here


12:18

against this uh vulnerable puma side


12:21

especially on the road


12:23

and at -108 uh shop around you know uh


12:27

but but i found minus 108 here on bet


12:29

rivers


12:30

yeah another good price there from rj um


12:35

you know i almost because i watched the


12:36

pachuca in the mazatlan game i almost


12:39

wonder if pachuca


12:41

themselves were actually overlooking


12:42

mazatlan ahead to this pumas match


12:45

because


12:46

um like i watched that game really


12:48

closely i watched you know all the way


12:50

through


12:51

the whole 90 minutes


12:52

mazatlan doesn't look good i mean they


12:55

they they don't have roster talent


12:57

anywhere near the rest of the league in


12:59

my opinion um they lost a couple of guys


13:02

from their playoff team last year and


13:04

even then it was like they were just


13:06

playing great team great team ball to


13:08

even to even get into the playoffs um


13:11

and they just don't have it man like


13:13

like they they scored off of


13:15

uh you know one of only a couple shots


13:18

on target against pachuca pachuca ends


13:20

up scoring in the last minute to make it


13:22

one-to-one but like you said they had


13:23

like four big chances tons of shots


13:26

um


13:27

with pumas coming to town here


13:29

their schedule is congested it's


13:31

starting to pile up you know they played


13:32

that uh that club friendly against celta


13:35

vigo as well started we talked about


13:37

that a couple uh last week like


13:39

they started like a bun basically their


13:41

whole starters and played 90 minutes and


13:42

then played a league match yeah


13:45

in a club friendly so schedule


13:47

congestion should be a factor for pumas


13:50

and on top of that pumice is just


13:51

dreadful defensively so


13:54

i think look


13:55

i didn't like what i saw out of pachuca


13:57

last game but i'm okay with writing it


13:59

off as as a one-time thing like they oh


14:02

you know they overlooked they slept


14:03

walked through the through the match you


14:05

can't sleepwalk here against a big time


14:07

opponent in pumas


14:09

um and i think it's gonna be a barrage


14:11

on the puma's goal so


14:13

uh probably really good implied odds on


14:16

this one especially at that price tag i


14:19

really like it


14:21

yeah i'm glad you agree buddy that makes


14:23

me feel better absolutely absolutely


14:25

it's it's usually a good sign when we


14:27

both agree


14:28

um


14:29

but uh yeah moving on to our last game


14:31

here this is my second uh and final


14:34

official play of the show i'm gonna go


14:36

with club leone


14:38

uh first half team total


14:41

uh over a half and that is at a minus


14:44

110


14:45

um


14:46

and just so everyone knows here


14:49

this is gonna be


14:51

match day five but it's a tuesday match


14:54

um so club leon takes on uh actually


14:59

chivas guadalajara the night of this


15:01

recording


15:02

uh on the road and then they get


15:05

basically a full week off to come back


15:08

home and play this match next tuesday


15:10

this is the 26th hosting to luca


15:14

[Music]


15:15

so


15:16

this leone team for me


15:19

they've been one of the bright spots of


15:21

this entire


15:22

first three or four


15:23

match weeks


15:25

of uh league mx


15:27

to me they look great they're they're


15:29

their attack has really improved you


15:31

know they they've got victor uh davila


15:34

back who was their leading scorer from


15:35

last year and they went out and got joel


15:37

campbell from monterey he's a good role


15:40

player you don't want him to be the guy


15:41

but he's a good role player they've got


15:42

him out wide and then they added this uh


15:45

this lucas diorio this argentina guy who


15:48

was a stud in the chilean league and


15:50

he's awesome dude like like if if i can


15:53

find odds


15:55

on a on the golden boot for this league


15:58

i want i want to sprinkle this guy


15:59

because he's six foot three he runs like


16:02

an antelope i mean this guy's a monster


16:04

bro i mean like from from a from a


16:07

physical and talent perspective lucas


16:09

diorios is


16:11

to me like the newcomer of the year for


16:14

for this league he he looks fantastic


16:15

we're only three weeks into this season


16:18

but


16:19

uh yeah so leon


16:21

they've created 12 big chances in the


16:24

first three matches


16:25

this is a team that scored three goals


16:28

at home against pumas on a red card with


16:30

10 men


16:32

and


16:33

it wasn't lucky like they were pouring


16:34

them in


16:35

so


16:36

very talented attack i like what the new


16:38

manager is doing here


16:40

uh and then you got taluka coming in


16:41

who's not a bad club but to luca is


16:44

really they're kind of like uh like


16:46

tijuana really night and day homing away


16:49

like fade tijuana on the road i'm going


16:51

to fade to luca on the road


16:54

and


16:55

they are


16:56

i would say a little bit improved from


16:58

last season but they were still number


16:59

one and expected goals allowed last


17:01

season so not a world-class defense by


17:04

any means


17:05

i'm and and the reason i'm backing leon


17:07

to get on the board in the first half


17:08

here because i don't want to mess with


17:10

red cards and i also don't trust leon's


17:12

defense


17:13

so


17:14

um


17:16

yeah if if if you don't have a first


17:18

half team total i don't mind


17:21

uh the full game total but uh really


17:23

prefer that first half team total for my


17:25

official play


17:28

yeah i you know uh as you said the the


17:30

newcomer uh diorio looks looks good he's


17:33

got a goal on every match scored two two


17:35

when they were short-handed


17:37

um


17:39

yeah i like the take i mean you know


17:41

it's tough to to trust uh sides but um


17:45

early


17:46

coming off two draws


17:49

you know to luca's coming off a


17:50

one-nothing loss against uh club america


17:53

that game was kind of shady to begin


17:55

with um


17:56

you know they look pretty good against


17:58

atlas they they look surprisingly good


18:00

um


18:01

to be truthful with you but leon is is


18:03

the stronger side and um


18:06

you know uh what was the price on this


18:09

this is minus 110. okay yeah that's


18:12

around even so that's that's not too bad


18:14

it's it's pretty favorable especially


18:16

for 45 minutes so


18:18

i'm with you


18:19

absolutely well um that's that's our


18:22

four plays for the week we will just


18:24

kind of wrap it up here and review them


18:27

um


18:29

yeah just just before we wrap it up just


18:31

make sure you guys are please following


18:33

the channel hit the thumbs up that


18:34

always does us


18:36

a lot of good


18:37

and


18:39

i'll just go through my two first so


18:41

again i'm on tigris and atlas over 2.25


18:44

at -110 and then i'm on leone first half


18:48

team total over half so just need him to


18:50

score in the first half also at minus


18:52

110.


18:54

very good i am on cruz azul versus


18:57

puebla


18:58

the the 23rd which is uh saturday 805


19:01

p.m eastern time i'm on


19:03

over 2.5 goals at minus 105.


19:06

second matchup is sunday pachuca versus


19:08

pumas uh match up is 8 p.m on sunday and


19:12

i'm on pachoca team total over 1.5 at


19:14

minus 108.


19:16

fantastic rj all right well best of luck


19:19

to us this week and anybody details and


19:22

hopefully we can right the ship and and


19:24

we got a long season ahead of us so


19:26

we're confident that we can turn it


19:28

around and have a nice profitable year


19:30

but appreciate everybody tuning in and


19:32

see you next week thanks guys