China has been cagey in its support for Russia since the February invasion of Ukraine. On one hand, China echoes Russia’s propaganda line and has ramped up purchases of Russian oil, giving the Putin regime a lifeline.
On the other hand, China has not sent military supplies to Russia. Chinese companies have actually decreased exports to Russia in recent months out of fear of sanctions. And China has not recognized the “independence” of the self-declared Russian puppet statelets in the Donbas region.
Putin’s deeply misguided and brutal aggression in Ukraine -- and the fact that the war is now nearing the end of its fifth month with no end in sight -- should give China pause.
President Xi declared a “partnership without limits” with Putin in February. But – given Putin’s brutality and ineptitude – is this “partnership without limits” still in China’s interest? Or might Xi and the Chinese elite – for their own reasons – be persuaded to back away from a damaged Putin?
Perhaps a few key adjustments in U.S. diplomacy might help shift China's calculus on Russia's war in Ukraine in a more positive direction.