Russian and Soviet history make it clear that defeat in war can result in the overthrow of the leader and that -- in the Soviet period especially -- the inner circle has repeatedly taken action against a leader seen to have failed. Autocrats rule through the appearance of strength. Putin is weakened and getting desperate. Yet he continues to hold on to his imperial fantasies. There is no hope for any real peace while Putin remains in the Kremlin. However strong he may seek to appear, if history is a guide, Putin's fall may occur as Hemmingway once said of bankruptcy: gradually -- and then suddenly.