Why is Erdogan agitated? Γιατί ο Ερντογάν είναι εκνευρισμένος;

Greece and Turkey form a unique couple. They have fought their respective wars of independence against each other. 

Recently President Erdogan escalated his rhetoric against Greece threatening to “come instantly one night”. 

 Why now? What lies behind this escalation? What makes President Erdogan agitated? How relations between Greece and the US, as well as Turkey- US relations affect the way Erdogan behaves? And how domestic politics in Turkey affects its foreign policy? Would things be different without Erdogan in the picture?

 In this “Ti Kosmos” (“What a World”) podcast Marilisa Anastasopoulou addresses the above issues in an enlightening discussion Steven A. Cook, expert onTurkish and Arab politics Steven

 Steven A. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His latest book is “False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East”. 

(https://www.cfr.org/expert/steven-cook)

 This podcast is in English. 

Η Ελλάδα και η Τουρκία είναι ένα «ξεχωριστό ζευγάρι». Έχουν πολεμήσει τους πολέμους ανεξαρτησίας τους η μία χώρα απέναντι στην άλλη. 

Πρόσφατα  ο Πρόεδρος Ερντογάν ανέβασε τη ρητορική του απέναντι στην Ελλάδα απειλώντας ότι θα έρθει ξαφνικά ένα βράδυ.

 Για ποιο λόγο τώρα; Τι κρύβεται πίσω από αυτή την ένταση; Τι είναι αυτό που κάνει τον Ερντογάν ανήσυχο; Πώς οι σχέσεις μεταξύ της Ελλάδας και της Αμερικής, καθώς και της Τουρκίας και της Αμερικής επηρεάζουν τον τρόπο που συμπεριφέρεται ο Ερντογάν; Και πώς η εσωτερική πολιτική στην Τουρκία επηρεάζει την εξωτερική πολιτική; Θα ήταν τα πράγματα διαφορετικά αν έφευγε ο Ερντογάν;

 Σε αυτό το podcast «Τι κόσμος» η Μαριλίζα Αναστασοπούλου θέτει τα παραπάνω θέματα σε μία διαφωτιστική συζήτηση με τον ειδικό στην πολιτική της Τουρκίας και των Αραβικών χωρών, Steven A. Cook. 

 Ο Steven A. Cook είναι ο Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow για τη Μέση Ανατολή και τις Αφρικανικές Σπουδές στο Συμβούλιο Εξωτερικών Σχέσεων. Το τελευταίο του βιβλίο έχει τίτλο:  “False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East”. 

(https://www.cfr.org/expert/steven-cook)

 To podcast είναι στα αγγλικά. 

Transcript

Greece and Turkey form a unique couple. They have fought their respective wars of independence against each other. 

Recently President Erdogan escalated his rhetoric against Greece threatening to “come instantly one night”. 

 The Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis responded in his speech at the UN General Assembly. “They threaten that Turkiye will “come at night”, if it so decides. This is the language of an aggressor, not a peacemaker”,  Kyriakos Mitsotakis said. 

In today’s “Ti Kosmos” podcast we will discuss why this escalation is taking place now and how domestic politics, as well as relations between Greece- Turkey and the US affect Erdogans policy. 

Can we imagine Turkey without Erdogan?

[00:00:19.070] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Today we have with us Stephen A. Cook who is the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for  Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations, and his latest book is False Dawn: Protest Democracy and Violence in the New Middle East. Stephen is a world known expert in Arab and Turkish politics. We're very lucky to have him here with us today in person because he's here following the Athens Democracy Forum, that takes place. Stephen, welcome and thank you very much for being here.

[00:00:49.920] - Steven A. Cook

Thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be with you.

[00:00:52.550] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Stephen, you have this amazing experience in the whole Arab area and in Turkey. I would love to ask you a thousand questions for everything, but because of time constraints, I'm going to focus on Turkey, where we had some recent developments when it comes to Greek - Turkish relations, and it's something that people would be interested to know your take and what's going on. As we all know from the news, Erdogan has been undergoing through a crescendo of accusations and threats against Greece lately and with the Aegean being at the center of it. Without going in what he said, because that is known, why now and what is he aiming at?

[00:01:40.350] - Steven A. Cook

It's a great question, and I think it's important for Greeks to understand that this is an unprecedented kind of rhetoric coming out of Turkey. There's obviously been long simmering tension between the two countries over the Aegean, but it's coming now primarily because President Erdogan is facing elections in the first half of 2023 and the Turkish election season is already under way. He is in the unusual position of being politically weak. So he is trying everything. He is pushing every button and pulling every possible lever he can in order to get political traction and rallying around the Turkish flag. And trying to get Turks to rally around the flag over the Aegean is one of his political gambits. It remains unclear whether it's working, but because he's in the, as I said, unusually position of being politically weak, one can expect Erdogan to use absolutely every trick in the book, every topic he can possibly think of, in order to gain electoral advantage. And unfortunately for Greeks, the Aegean is a cause for nationalist sentiment in Turkey.

[00:03:01.010] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

So you're saying that this is all for internal, let's say, consumption right now? Nonetheless, there is the possibility of what we would say an accident, an escalation by accident. And in that case, what would be in there for Erdogan ? I mean, he's a NATO member, we are a NATO member. Isn't it a bit dangerous game to play?

[00:03:24.120] - Steven A. Cook

It is a very dangerous game to play. And in fact, the idea that two NATO allies would come to blows is something that should be concerning for the alliance and the whole, and Washington DC in particular. Given the role that Greece is playing in support of Ukraine and the United States' efforts in Ukraine, what I think should be clear and may not be as clear to Greeks who have to live with this on a daily basis, but I think it's clear that the Turks don't actually seem to want war. They want to ramp up the rhetoric and suggest that Greece wants war for their political benefit. Of course, what this does is it raises the possibility of a miscalculation or an accident that could lead to conflict between the two countries. As Erdogan continues this rhetoric, he may paint himself in a corner where he is left with little choice but to take greater and greater risks, which might force the Greek government to respond in kind. Which is why I think analysts like myself have been calling upon the US government to take a keen interest in what's going on in the Aegean and be very clear with the government of Turkey that this rhetoric is not helpful in an effort to reduce tensions between Athens and Ankara.

[00:04:48.890] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Since you also mentioned the US. The US the last couple of years has formed a very close relationship with Greece. Can you portray how the relationship of Greece, Turkey and the US is right now and how maybe the Greek- US relations that are a bit close affect maybe the way Erdogan  thinks and acts?

[00:05:15.830] - Steven A. Cook

Yeah, those are really very important questions. And I think it's important to point out that Greece, Turkey pardon me, Greece- US relations are perhaps better than they've ever been, at least as long as I've been doing this. Certainly over the last two decades, Greece has really improved its diplomatic approach to the United States, taking advantage of many of Turkey's mistakes. Turkey's mistakes, which have produced a deterioration of bilateral relations between Washington and Ankara, and the Greek government's attitude that it wants to be helpful to the United States has in turn generated goodwill in Washington. And Washington has now invested in the US - Greece relationship in ways that it hasn't been in the past. Unprecedented kind of military cooperation, of course, Suda bay has always been important to the United States, but there's been an increased cooperation there. Of course, this port that the United States is using to flow material to Ukraine has been increasingly important. So there really has been this flowering of Greece- US relations in Washington. And Washington seems to be very, very pleased with this new relationship which mostly forged during the Trump era, but has been continued during President Biden's tenure so far.

[00:06:39.480] - Steven A. Cook

I think it is one of the factors that is creating tension between Greece and Turkey. We know that President Erdogan was very unhappy with the meeting that the Greek Prime Minister had with President Biden last May, and was particularly unhappy that Prime Minister Mitsotakis was given an opportunity to address a joint session of Congress in which he received eight standing ovations. This was something that this is the kind of thing that is reserved for the British Prime Minister, the British monarch, the Israeli Prime Minister, the King of Jordan. Not something that we often see with the Greek Prime Minister. And President Erdogan seems to have taken it personally and has sent his emissaries to Washington to try to arrange his own Oval Office meeting with the President, to no avail. And so it is something that has bothered President Erdogan, who tends to take these things personally and I think has contributed to the deterioration of Greece Turkey relations. I should say he took a particular exception to Prime Minister Mitsotakis's position when he was in Washington not to sell Turkey F 16s. But from the Greek perspective, you can understand why the Greek head of government would not want its NATO ally to sell weaponry to a neighbouring country that might be used to threaten Greece.

[00:08:07.070] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

The US policy is not monolithic in a way. This is something that I think the audience should understand because they get confused with different signals like Biden might say, yes, we're going to consider this and then Menendez is going to say something else. So people need to understand that there are different areas of policy making within Washington, but overall, what you say is that Washington is on our side. Let's put it like that.

[00:08:36.170] - Steven A. Cook

I think most of all, the United States would like there to be unity within NATO, and that the idea that Greece and Turkey could come to blows over the Aegean is obviously a significant problem for Washington. But right now, the United States and Greece are enjoying a very productive and constructive relations. You're quite right that there are different, because of our form of government, our divided government, with the executive branch and the legislative branch, that when Turkey, for example, requests new F16s from the United States, the executive branch, the President may be supportive of that in principle, but he's also underlined the fact that there's a process and that Congress will also have a say in the sale of that weaponry. Now, Congress actually technically cannot force the administration not to sell planes to Turkey, but it can put up enough of a fight with the administration that makes it not worth it for President Biden to go forward with the sale. So it will be interesting to see in the coming months what's happening. But right now, members of Congress are saying if the sale goes through, the use of those at 16th will be conditioned, and the primary condition is that they won't be used to menace Greece.

[00:10:00.110] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

I want to go a bit in Turkey and see how Turkey thinks. First of all, before we look into Erdogan, let's assume that Erdogan disappears tomorrow morning. What is Turkey about?

[00:10:15.230] - Steven A. Cook

Well, look, Turkey is the fact that I know he's supposed to have disappeared, but the fact that President Erdogan is using the nationalist card in the early goings of his reelection campaign says something about Turkey, a fiercely nationalist and proud, powerful, important country in the world. And Turks, I think, people misapprehend what's happened in Turkey over the course of the last 20 years. There is, I think, considerable opposition to President Erdogan and his vision for Turkey domestically. But I think overall there's been a lot of agreement on Turkey's foreign policy and the way in which Turkey has sought a more active, some would say aggressive foreign policy in the area and beyond. Turks see themselves as a major power and want to be treated as such. So I think that although, if President Erdogan were to disappear, I still think that there would be problems between Greece and Turkey. I think still Turkey would want to be treated as a Mediterranean power, that there would still be problems over Cyprus. You would see probably less emphasis on Muslim solidarity, solidarity with countries in the Muslim world, but nevertheless, you would still see Turkish politicians seeking to play an important and influential role both within NATO and outside of NATO.

[00:11:56.980] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Which gets us also to the opposition in Turkey, that despite the mistakes of Erdogan, still they cannot seem to be able to take over. And I would like to explain what kind of politics they suggest and why they fail.

[00:12:19.020] - Steven A. Cook

Yeah, the Turkish opposition is pretty bad. They've made mistake after mistake after mistake and even when they've gotten it right, they've followed up with mistakes, which has been a great advantage to President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party. The opposition is deeply divided. The main opposition party has become really a regional party which does best in the western regions of Turkey. They too are kind of fiercely nationalistic in ways that when Erdogan is sort of banging the nationalist drums on the Aegean, they fall into line for fear of their own nationalism being questioned. They've not been able to capitalize on President Erdogan's economic mismanagement. They haven't put forward their own coherent plan for the economy. It's a strange thing, given the string of mistakes that President Erdogan has made, that they haven't been able to offer an appealing alternative to the Justice and Development party. I mean, just take the situation with Greece and the Aegean. Many Turks see what President Erdogan is doing as really electioneering over the Aegean, which is quite dangerous. It could end up in a conflict rather than taking advantage of that and the Turkish opposition saying that President is making a mistake here, they have fallen into line and engaged in similar kinds of rhetoric.

[00:13:58.240] - Steven A. Cook

So I think for anybody to count on the Turkish opposition to take a responsible position on some of these issues is really perhaps asking for too much.

[00:14:08.550] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Which fits with the fact, as you have explained in other seminars, that also Turkey is nationalistic in nature due to its recent history so that follows that line. So it's not easy to break away from that.

[00:14:24.410] - Steven A. Cook

Look, history looms large for many, many countries, including Turkey. And I think baked into the political culture in Turkey is the idea that big powers, along with Greece, had once tried to divide Anatolia and would try to do it again, even though there's zero evidence that that is the case.

[00:14:46.830] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

And Turkish people don't feel that they're in the west, they belong to the east, but they feel Turkish. Right? That's what you said.

[00:14:58.440] - Steven A. Cook

Particularly sympathetic to this view that Westerners have tried to define Turkey as either west or east. And Turks want to see themselves as just Turkey. Inheritors of a great civilization and important country in their own right. I think that's something important for people to think about when they think about what Turkey is doing in the world and particularly in its neighbourhood.

[00:15:23.950] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Which brings us now to what is coming up, with elections are coming up or supposed to come up on May 2023, around May, let's say, in Turkey. And the one question I would like to pose is there an idea, way, a scenario that Erdogan might do anything to postpone the elections? A national security problem? Having in mind that on the 29th of October 2023, it's 100 years from the birth of the Turkish Republic and of course Erdogan one would like to be there.

[00:16:07.930] - Steven A. Cook

It's not just that President Erdogan would like to be the president on the 100th anniversary of the Republic. It has become kind of his prime directive. In previous years he has sought the transformation of Turkey, but now he's merely kind of power seeking and his goal is to be the President on that very important date. If there is normal politics in Turkey, president Erdogan does seem to be politically weak. Polling demonstrates that some of the likely candidates beat him handily in a presidential election, which raises the possibility that Turkey might not have normal politics in the coming months. And something not unprecedented that if Erdogan cannot use the institutions of the state to close parties to intimidate other candidates and engineer a victory for himself, if they don't think that that can happen, there is always the possibility that Turkey declares a state of emergency and they postpone the elections and he remains the President beyond his term and will be the president on the 100th anniversary. I know that Greeks are concerned that Turkey would precipitate some sort of crisis in the  Aegean, and I think that's something that we should all be concerned about and something that I think analysts in Washington have communicated to the Biden administration.

[00:17:37.310] - Steven A. Cook

And that should be among the range of possibilities that they think about. One of the other possibilities is that they create some sort of crisis with the Kurdish population and declare state of emergency over terrorism. That would be in an odd way, somewhat safer, certainly safer for Greeks than precipitating a crisis over a pile of rocks or a small island in the Aegean. But again, both of those things are, I think, something that Greeks, Americans and others of goodwill should be aware of, that Turkey might not have normal politics, even though it's scheduled to have elections perhaps in May or June of 2023.

[00:18:20.010] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

So we're looking ahead in a period of turbulence and caution. Let's put it like that. There are a million things I would like to ask more, but we should wrap it up here and next time have a broader conversation about the wider area. Thank you so much for being here.

[00:18:40.480] - Steven A. Cook

Once again.It's my great pleasure. I look forward to a future conversation.

[00:18:43.410] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou

Thank you. Bye.