Ti Kosmos podcast
Ti Kosmos podcast
Why war in Ukraine will not end any time soon/ Γιατί δεν θα τελειώσει σύντομα ο πόλεμος στην Ουκρανία
“…And I think what is important to know that this is the most dangerous phase of the war since it started more than eight months ago. And generally, a war that lasts around eight months has got one in three chances to last between two and five years…” (Wolf Piccoli)
Russia invaded Ukraine 8 months ago. The West united to support Ukraine but as winter approaches the end of the war seems nowhere near.
What is happening with the war in Ukraine today and how the present will affect the future of the war? Who is winning and why we cannot see the table of negotiations? What are Putin’s tactics and options? How serious is the nuclear threat? How the use of drones of Iran may affect Israel? How midterm elections in the US may affect the conflict? Why and in what ways Putin supports Erdogan?
Wolfango Piccoli*, Co-President of Teneo’s global political risk platform, discusses with Marilisa Anastasopoulou and explains why the war in Ukraine cannot end anytime soon.
Γιατί δεν μπορεί να τελειώσει σύντομα ο πόλεμος στη Ουκρανία
«…αυτή είναι η πιο επικίνδυνη φάση του πολέμου από τότε που ξεκίνησε πριν από οκτώ και πλέον μήνες… ένας πόλεμος που διαρκεί περίπου οκτώ μήνες έχει μία στις τρεις πιθανότητες να διαρκέσει μεταξύ δύο και πέντε ετών..» (Wolf Piccoli)
Η Ρωσία εισέβαλε στην Ουκρανία πριν 8 μήνες. Η Δύση ενώθηκε να υποστηρίξει την Ουκρανία αλλά ενώ πλέον έρχεται ο χειμώνας και το τέλος του πολέμου δεν υπάρχει στον ορίζοντα.
Ποια είναι η κατάσταση με τον πόλεμο στην Ουκρανία και πώς το τι συμβαίνει τώρα θα επηρεάσει τι συνέχεια του πολέμου; Ποιος κερδίζει και γιατί δεν μπορούμε να δούμε το τραπέζι των διαπραγματεύσεων; Ποιες είναι οι τακτικές και οι επιλογές που έχει ο Πούτιν; Πόσο σοβαρή είναι η πυρηνική απειλή; Πώς η χρήση drones από το Ιράν μπορεί να επηρεάσει το Ισραήλ; Τι ρόλο μπορούν να παίξουν οι ενδιάμεσες εκλογές στις ΗΠΑ; Γιατί και με ποιους τρόπους ο Πούτιν υποστηρίζει τον Ερντογάν;
Αυτά τα θέματα συζητά η Μαριλίζα Αναστασοπούλου με καλεσμένο τον Wolfango Piccoli*, συμπρόεδρο του Political Risk Advisory της Teneo.
(η συζήτηση είναι στα αγγλικά)
*https://www.teneo.com/person/wolfango-piccoli/
Introduction
Russia invaded Ukraine 8 months ago.
The West united to support Ukraine but as winter approaches the end of the war seems nowhere near.
Recently, President Joe Biden said at the UN General Assembly:
“Like you, The United States wants this war to end on just terms, on terms we’re all signed up for – that you cannot seize a nation’s territory by force”.
And Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a 60 Minutes Interview said “There are no talks because Russia has not demonstrated any willingness in this moment to engage in meaningful discussions.”
To understand where we are today with the war in Ukraine we have with us Wolfgang Piccoli, Wolfango Piccoli is Co-President of Teneo. Mr. Piccoli is responsible for co-managing Teneo’s global political risk platform and for the specific coverage of Europe.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Welcome. Thank you for being here with me today. I would like to ask you; it's been eight months since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Where are we today?
Wolf Piccoli
We are at the point where there is no end in sight. The conflict: so most likely it will spill over into 2023. We also have seen Putin taking two significant decisions recently, which are two major inflection points. The first one is annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine, and second, the mobilization of reservists. With the first one, he took away from anything that could have been matter of bargain, diplomatic table. With the second one, he kind of changed the social contract that he had at home. So for the time being, we should just expect continuation of the fighting, which might slow down a bit because of the winter. And then the question is where the Russians will be once the spring comes.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So according to your opinion, the discussion that there is right now that the west should look for a diplomatic solution is out of the table, if i understand well.
Wolf Piccoli
That's correct, yes. There is absolutely nothing to negotiate. The Ukrainians have made very clear that they are unwilling to negotiate with Putin as long as he's in office. The annexation of the four occupied regions in Ukraine has now turned them into allegedly territory of Russia. According to Russia constitution, Russia cannot give away territory. So that has made potential negotiation even more meaningless. On the Ukrainian side, they feel very strong. They are most likely launched in their counteroffensive in the air of Curzon. So as of now, there is absolutely zero signs of anything that resembles peace talks, negotiation and so on.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So Putin hasn't been strong in the battlefield, in the ground, but he has increased his rhetoric when it comes, for example, to nuclear weapons. Is that something that worries you?
Wolf Piccoli
It is certainly a matter of concern, maybe not an immediate period. I think he will first of all want to see whether the measures that he has been announcing over the last few weeks, the mobilization, this new terror campaign that we will discuss maybe later in the podcast, the martial law that was announced yesterday, and the other measures that were announced in Russia proper whether they will pay off. The risk comes the moment in which he realizes that his room for manoeuvre has basically become nonexistent. As of now, the Russians, at best, can try to hold the line in Eastern Ukraine and in Southern Ukraine. Certainly, they have no capacity, especially in terms of manpower, logistics, command and control, to launch a new offensive. So, the moment of truth, here, would be once Putin realizes this, and again, when we talk about nuclear, we need to be very cautious here about which kind of nuclear we are talking about. There are all sorts of ways that it can be employed here potentially just as a kind of symbolic or a terror kind of threat more than anything that can change the balance of power on the ground.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
You mentioned the terror campaign. I guess you're talking about the drones used. So that's another thing we should discuss. There are drones used on the ground right now. It's been said that there are drones from Iran. How this is important, what has it changes on the ground, on the battlefield and when it comes to the geopolitical context, why this is important.
Wolf Piccoli
On the ground actually doesn't change much at all. It's not something that will provide the Russians with any significant victory on the ground, but it does create terror because the civilian population is being targeted randomly across the whole of Ukraine, not just Kiev. We also have seen a campaign targeting infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, specifically energy infrastructure. So potentially the gaming of the Russian is trying to freeze the Ukrainians during the winter. 30% of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has been affected by this targeting. 90% of Ukrainian wind power capabilities have been destroyed so far in the war. And in terms of the wider picture, the interesting story is that, yes, the Russians are using these cheap "kamikaze" drones that were developed by Iran. They are using hundreds of them so far in the last couple of days with missed success, these are rudimentary drones, technology is not very sophisticated, but they can create terror and they're cheap. The question for me will be whether this Iranian involvement in the war on the side of Russia, which allows Iranians to test the drone and potentially further refine the drone program, will actually drag into the war also, Israel. Meaning Israel so far has been very cautious in terms of supporting Ukraine, mainly because it's got a close relationship with Russia.
Wolf Piccoli
Ukrainians have already asked the Israelis for more military support, specifically anti-drone support. So, the question would be whether Israel decides that the risk is that Iran is developing its program by testing it on the ground in Ukraine and therefore it's time to provide military help to Ukraine.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So, the one thing to look is what will happen with Iran and Israel. The other thing we have to look, and I'd like to ask you, we have midterm elections, it's going to be a change in the Congress of the US. There are already voices from the Republicans saying that we cannot give a white check to Ukraine. What do you think will happen there? What's the issue?
Wolf Piccoli
So, election always create uncertainty. We have seen how in Italy, we saw some uncertainty before the summer with the French presidential parliamentary election, now we have the midterms in the US. In terms of the outcome, I think the Republicans are set to take the control over the House. The Senate, I think, is a 50-50. Until recently, the feeling was the Democrats who are able to keep it now, I think it's a bit more kind of at risk. The implication will be that if the House is taken over by Republicans basically delivering aid, economic and military aid to Ukraine could become more complicated because several Republican figures, as you just mentioned, are reluctant to give what they call the white check to Zelensky. Which raises one point here. The west is deeply involved in this war. We are providing military aid, lethal military aid. We are providing economic support. We are providing intelligence. Nobody in the west here has defined what is victory? What does it mean of victory in this war, basically? Does it mean decapitating Russia capabilities to extend his power beyond this border? Does it mean regime change in Moscow? Does it mean going back to the borders of the 23 February, or does it mean going back to the border of 2015?
That kind of debate has not started so far. Western policymakers have been hiding behind the idea that the Ukrainians will decide, which is a very honourable position to hold, but on the other ground, while the west shares lots of interest with Ukraine, the west has got also interest well beyond Ukraine. Think about China, for example, here. So that issue, I think, especially if we go through a tough winter, especially in Europe, the issue of talks, the issue of putting pressure on Zelensky could come back.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So, we have to see what's going to happen in the winter. You're worried about how the west will keep the support during winter, if I understand well. But is Putin challenged from inside right now at all? Is he pressured?
Wolf Piccoli
It's very difficult to say. Putin has taken, it was forced here to declare this mobilization, to move the reservists, even if he didn't want to, because the social contract prevailing in Russia under Putin for the last 20 years plus was very simple: the population remains agnostic towards politics and Putin doesn't bother you, to put it in a nutshell here. Well, now Putin is knocking it at your door, if you're Russian and is taking away your father, your son, your cousin, and throwing them into a battlefield in Ukraine. So, this has raised the stakes for Putin domestically. There is also an economic impact that eventually, especially in 2023, will manifest itself and will start biting more aggressively because of the sanctions and also the exit of loss of Western multinationals from Russia here. Is there a risk now? I don't think he is. We haven't seen significant cracks in the system. Very difficult to read what is happening within the Kremlin at this point. Public opinion is still with Putin, apparently, even if we have to take opinion polls with a big pinch of salt when they're coming from Russia here. But what we know that this kind of regime when they start falling, they fall very, very quickly, but we are not there.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Putin doesn't seem to have a lot of support. We've seen China being very cautious when it comes to its involvement to the invasion of Ukraine. The west so far is quite united. He does have some support from Turkey and tries to help Erdogan who has elections in April or May. What does he do to help Erdogan? How is this relationship?
Wolf Piccoli
It's a very transactional relationship between the two sides, even if they have very diverging interest on a few fronts. Let's remember here that Turkey is providing drones to Ukraine, which had been used very successfully by the Ukrainians to target military assets of Russia on the ground here. Meanwhile, Putin-Erdogan enjoy a close personal relationship. I think Putin is invested in making sure that Erdogan is reelected next year. So, we have seen recently Russia depositing around $5 billion into the Turkish Central Bank in relation to the nuclear power plant that the Russians are building in Turkey, which has helped Erdogan domestically in terms of stabilizing the lira, at least temporarily here. Turkey is now asking to defer the payment for the gas that is still buying from Russia- is around 40% of the natural gas that Turkey uses. They are trying to defer the payment to 2024. The gas bill for Turkey so far this year has been around $60 billion dollars. So, a significant amount of money. So even if Erdogan is able to get a deferred payment for half of it, suddenly Erdogan will have available 25 -30 billion dollars that he can use between now and June 2023, when the election is expected to take place.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
You're an expert also in Turkey, you know very well Turkey. What else Erdogan does to help himself for the election?
Wolf Piccoli
We have seen for a long time a significant domestic crackdown. So, in terms of targeting opposition politician with outright harassment, if not throwing them in jail, specifically politicians from the pro-Kurdish HDP. We have seen changes to the electoral system. We have seen a crackdown on the media, most recently social media, which is a law that was passed over the past few days, that will entail significant penalties for people providing what Erdogan has called "fake news". Legislation is written in a very vague way, so it would be open to interpretation there. He has been also using foreign policy, mainly in terms of rhetoric to try to create domestic support, so threatening military operation in northern Syria to target the Kurds. And also, you have seen the threat against Greece as well, including, for example, also threats to the US in the past. So, it's basically a foreign policy that is becoming more and more connected with the domestic imperatives of Erdogan.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
I would like to wrap it up here because the main discussion is about Russia and the invasion of Ukraine. The way I understand it, we're nowhere near an end to this war, and we're about to see how the winter will go and discuss again, let's say in April to see where we're heading, something like that, as far as I understand. That's correct.
Wolf Piccoli
And I think what is important to know that this is the most dangerous phase of the war since it started more than eight months ago. And generally, a war that lasts around eight months has got one in three chances to last between two and five years and one in three chances to last less than a year. Right now, I think, I would suggest that maybe two- five years. That looks more realistic than less than a year.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So, you mean danger in the sense that it's going to drag on for a while, not that it's going to escalate in other areas.
Wolf Piccoli
Danger in terms of dragging on, but also danger because I think the Russian here will, as they are facing more difficulties, difficulties on the battle ground in Eastern Ukraine and South Ukraine, will adopt more terror tactics. So, we will see more indiscriminate targeting of civilians across the whole of Ukraine. We have seen more mobilization domestically in Russia in terms of manpower, but also with a martial law. We need to understand what actually means for businesses, for example. So that is why this is the most dangerous phase.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Do you fear might spread in other countries in the region?
Wolf Piccoli
It could be an option for Putin here to create unrest in other areas of Europe, to try to distract the Europeans and to show that Russia matters. The Balkans, for example, Transnistria, for example, where the Russians have 1500 soldiers since 1992. So, there are areas where potentially there is a risk of cyber-attacks. We have seen the blowing up of the gas pipelines already in the Baltic Sea. So, there are all sorts of range of measures here that Russia can employ to exercise further pressure on the Europeans and the west.
Marilisa Anastasopoulou
I will keep it here until here. Thank you very much for your time, and I hope to be able to speak to you again in April to see where we are at the time. Thank you very much. Mr. Wolf.