Ti Kosmos podcast
Ti Kosmos podcast
How Putin’s Potemkin Army is losing his war crimes imprinted war in Ukraine?
Nobody expected that the Russian army would perform so poorly and that the Ukrainian side would do so well. How can we explain the failures of Russia’s war machine?
Putin must face up to the fact that he's not going to win this war on the ground in Ukraine. Withdrawing from Kherson made that clear. What strategy will he follow now? Can we see a negotiated agreement in the near future and what will be the next day for Russia?
Professor Shultz, who is the director of the International Security Studies Program of Fletcher School at Tufts University, discusses with Marilisa Anastasopoulou at “ Ti kosmos” podcast the aforementioned issues.
Πώς ο στρατός «Ποτέμκιν» του Πούτιν χάνει τον, χαραγμένο με εγκλήματα, πόλεμο στην Ουκρανία;
Κανείς δεν υπολόγιζε όταν έγινε η εισβολή στην Ουκρανία ότι η στρατός της Ρωσίας θα ήταν τόσο ανεπαρκής και ότι η ουκρανική πλευρά θα αντιδρούσε πολεμικά με τόση επιτυχία. Πώς μπορούμε να εξηγήσουμε την αποτυχία της ρωσικής στρατιωτικής μηχανής;
Ο Πούτιν έχει φτάσει στο σημείο που πρέπει να αντιμετωπίσει το γεγονός ότι δεν θα μπορέσει να κερδίσει αυτό τον πόλεμο συμβατικά. Η απομάκρυνση των στρατευμάτων από την Χερσώνα το έδειξε αυτό ξεκάθαρα. Τι στρατηγική θα ακολουθήσει τώρα; Μπορούμε να δούμε μία συμφωνία μετά από διαπραγμάτευση; Ποια θα είναι η επόμενη μέρα για τη Ρωσία;
Αυτά τα θέματα συζήτησε ο καθηγητής Διεθνούς Ασφάλειας και Διευθυντής του Προγράμματος Σπουδών Διεθνούς Ασφάλειας της Σχολής Fletcher του Πανεπιστημίου Tufts, Ρίτσαρντ Σουλτς, με την Μαριλίζα Αναστασοπούλου στο podcast “Ti kosmos”.
[00:00:11.110] - Introduction
Ukrainians are celebrating chanting in support of their armed forces. They have regained control of Kherson. "The lives and health of our troops always take priority", said the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, while ordering the retreat of his army. The reality is the army could not hold its supply lines. As President Biden said about the Russian army:
[00:00:39.100] - Introduction
"And it's evidence of the fact that they have some real problems, the Russian military."
[00:00:46.690] - Introduction
Today's guest is Professor Richard Shultz, who is the director of the International Security Studies Program of Fletcher School at Tufts University. I had the chance to meet Professor Shultz at the lobby of his hotel during a brief visit in Athens and discuss about Russia's Potemkin army and what Putin can do now.
[00:01:08.210] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Professor Shultz, thank you so much for being here today with us.
[00:01:11.950] - Richard Shultz
It's my pleasure.
[00:01:14.960] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
You have written and you follow a lot what's going on in Ukraine, amongst other things. I would like to ask you, in the beginning of the war, nobody believed that the Russian army would perform so badly, and at the same time that the Ukrainian side would do so well. Neither Putin nor the US intelligence forces.What happened there?
[00:01:44.440] - Richard Shultz
I think they made the classic mistake of estimating the power of an army based on its new equipment. And Russia had a lot of new equipment due to modernization by Putin. Many new tanks, armored personnel carriers, airplanes, and so on. And it looked like a mismatch. Now, the problem in doing those sorts of estimates is you don't estimate how well can the forces use that equipment and how well can that equipment be maintained? And in both cases, there's been a great failure. Maintenance of equipment, terrible. No tires for trucks, no oil for engines, things like that. So, big problem. Second, the army. The army is not prepared for the modern battlefield. The Ukrainian army was prepared for the modern battlefield.
[00:02:49.540] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
The Ukrainian army, because also of its involvement, let's say it's collaboration with NATO at the time, and the help from the West, I guess you mean.
[00:02:58.830] - Richard Shultz
It's not just the immediate help from the West. It's the retraining of the Ukrainian army over the last five years to be able to fight on the modern battlefield. They're trained the way we train our army. Now, this can get complicated, but let me put it this way. On the modern battlefield, local commanders have to be able to take initiative. The Russian army isn't prepared for that. They're still fighting the old style, where the generals back behind the lines make the decisions for the troops at the front. It's not the modern battlefield.
[00:03:40.240] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Can we see historical analogies when it comes to that, like in the past? Russia has learned from its past history?
[00:03:49.390] - Richard Shultz
I think we can see that many leaders embarking on war are overconfident of their forces. Putin was overconfident of his forces. He's not the first leader to make that mistake.
[00:04:08.740] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
I saw a bit of the finances of the war. And when it comes to financial terms, the amount of money spent on defence on the military of Russia isn't that high, if you compare it to other countries. So it's not a great power budget, military budget, one would say. So that didn't help either.
[00:04:31.800] - Richard Shultz
That's true. And then you have to compound that with the fact that the military budget is affected by corruption. So there's tremendous corruption in the logistics system. That's why spare parts were not available, because the money has been skimmed by corruption. They've tried - I remember reading - two or three fairly, Senior officials for corruption.
[00:05:05.590] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
And I've read that they have been selling the fuels in the past. Tanks were abandoned here, and there. Lack of fuel. Even the meals that were expired back in 2015. So it seems that preparation was, to say the least, not good enough. So it didn't work out. We have seen that in practice when it comes to the military capability. How does Putin deal with that? What happens today after so many months?
[00:05:43.240] - Richard Shultz
Well, I think he has to face up to the fact that he's not going to win this war on the ground in Ukraine. In fact, his army is losing this war. So now he has to figure out, "how can I coerce the Ukrainians to do my will"? That's where he's at.
[00:06:10.460] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
By, for example, having this terror with the drones and targeting the energy sector of the country and other solutions.
[00:06:20.660] - Richard Shultz
That's right. And I call this the Aleppo strategy. So when Russia went to save Assad in Syria, ISIS and the other groups fighting Assad, one of their main areas was Aleppo. And what the Russian army, or what the Russian military did was the same thing they did to Grozny in the early 2000s. They obliterated it. They literally leveled the city. And if you look at the pictures of Aleppo and Grozny, they look the same.
[00:07:02.440] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So we see a war that is, let's say, that has no morality, that war crimes go to the largest extreme. Would we say that?
[00:07:15.720] - Richard Shultz
I would say that war crimes are an integral part of the Russian strategy. And I would give you the example of the bombing of schools. So we know that Russia has bombed between 200 and 300 schools in Ukraine. That doesn't happen by accident. One school, five schools, ten schools, maybe accident... Between 200 and 300 they're systematically destroying schools. They're systematically destroying infrastructure.
[00:07:52.910] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
In order to win the war in other sides .The international community has been monitoring the war crimes in this war since day one. Do you believe they're going to hold someone accountable for that? Do you see Putin going to trial for that?
[00:08:14.060] - Richard Shultz
He'll never go physically to trial. But I think the international community will have to have a virtual Nuremberg for this. And not just Putin, but the senior leadership around him and the generals who are responsible for this scorched earth policy. They all have to be tried, even if it's in abstencia.
[00:08:42.710] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Do you believe he's going to resort to nuclear solutions actions?
[00:08:48.940] - Richard Shultz
No one can answer that question. We know that he's chirped about it. He's talked about it. Now some of his generals have talked about it. I believe that he's been told by the United States in specific terms what the consequences will be of the use of a small, real nuclear weapon.
[00:09:14.960] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
How do you see the reaction of the rest of the international community, Europe and China, in this world?
[00:09:22.440] - Richard Shultz
Well, I think Europe, and especially NATO, has undergone a sea change. So NATO has really stood up. And that's quite remarkable given the number of countries involved and how many of them felt about security before this. So NATO has been quite strong, and I think Europe in general has been strong. Other places, of course, have backed Putin. China is especially true. So he has places he can turn to for support. But they're small, they're few in number.China is the player.
[00:10:12.490] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Yes, but for now, China is trying to remain a bit on the side.
[00:10:18.270] - Richard Shultz
China is trying to walk between the raindrops on this. And this is a big problem, I think, for Xi Jinping. But Putin is finding himself isolated. And after this war is over, the consequences for Russia, not just Putin, but for Russia, I think, are going to be serious.
[00:10:43.540] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
In terms of destroying both the infrastructure of the economy and the values, the way the country works, I guess.
[00:10:53.810] - Richard Shultz
Well, what I mean is that when this is over, Russia doesn't go back to business as usual. There's going to be war crimes trials. There are going to be ways of forcing Russia to pay for what they've done in Ukraine. In a way, I think Russia is going to be turned into a pariah.
[00:11:22.010] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So it seems like we are sure that at some point Russia will lose, which is very difficult to define what losing means right now. But how do you see the near future of the war? I mean, the war developing during winter. That changes a lot.
[00:11:39.280] - Richard Shultz
It's going to go through the winter. And this is Putin's hope that the winter will weaken the resolve of Europe and NATO and that this will help him find a way out of the war? I don't think so. I think that it's going to be tough for Europeans because of energy. But there is no way that I can see a negotiated settlement where Russia comes out of this in some way that is not a major criticism and charges against them for what they've done.
[00:12:33.110] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Europe supports Ukraine, but, for example, now we have the midterm elections, already we have heard many voices saying that we should cut back on that, the US should cut back support when it comes to Ukraine, that the Senate might go to the Republicans. So will Ukraine continue to receive the support it needs to continue fighting this war with military, quote unquote, success.
[00:13:04.310] - Richard Shultz
I think it will. I think that there are some Republicans that are taking the position you just said, but I don't think that that will be the leadership in the House which they're going to take. We don't know about the Senate. So I think it would be very hard for them to back off and move in the other direction politically.
[00:13:35.740] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
So how do you see an end to this war?
[00:13:39.100] - Richard Shultz
I don't know. And I think anyone who tells you they know, they don't know. I do know that Putin has put himself in a position where he can't walk back. We say he went over the bridge and he set it on fire behind himself. He can't go back. He's in a place where he has very few options. So I don't know. But I do know that there will not be a return to business as usual for him.
[00:14:14.790] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Is he threatened internally? I mean, do we see any signs.
[00:14:19.150] - Richard Shultz
Of no one knows. We don't know. Maybe the CIA knows. CIA, of course, knew that the war was coming. They were right on that. So maybe they know.
[00:14:34.990] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Okay, so we will wait to see what will go, what will happen to survive the winter, to start us.
[00:14:45.940] - Richard Shultz
Everyone thinks that wars can be short. And my study of war and I've studied war for a long time, it's not true. Wars always surprise you, and they always take on almost a life of their own. And that's what's happening here.
[00:15:06.260] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Professor Shultz, thank you so much for your time. I hope I will have the pleasure to talk to you again in the future.
[00:15:12.790] - Richard Shultz
I would be delighted.
[00:15:14.110] - Marilisa Anastasopoulou
Thank you.