CoreLogic data indicates that property prices in the 5 largest capital cities have fallen by 7.1% since May, when the RBA started hiking interest rates. Sydney has seen the largest price fall – down by around 10%, and Melbourne has fallen by 6.7%.
But it’s not all bad news. House prices in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are still materially higher than they were a year ago.
I wrote a blog in March in response to fund manager, Christopher Joye’s prediction that property prices would fall 15% to 25% within 2 years if the RBA hiked rates by at least 1%. At the time, it was my view that prices would fall 5% to 7%. This has happened now, and I don’t think we’ll see any more (material) falls for the reasons set out below.
Supply and demand are more balanced
One of the reasons that prices have fallen this year is that it’s no longer necessary to overpay to buy a property. Last year, I wrote that the only way to successfully buy a property in 2021 was to overpay. That’s because potential buyers outnumbered potential sellers.
Buyer demand has fallen (probably due to higher rates, share market volatility and talk of a possible recession) but so has supply i.e., the number of new listings – they are 18% below the 5 year average. As such, the market is relatively balanced (between buyers and sellers) which means there is no need to overpay anymore. Good quality, investment-grade property is still attracting strong buyer demand and is typically selling for fair value.
Of course, some geographic markets might experience different conditions, such as regional towns and beachside locations. It is possible that some locations may experience larger declines in demand and as such, prices may continue to fall.
Most borrowers have factored in higher rates
Most borrowers realised that interest rates would not stay at 2% p.a. forever. Of course, if they were li
ASK ME A QUESTION ON YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACnxmEP8vv8
My YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/@investopolypodcast
If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. It helps me reach more incredible listeners like you. Thank you for being a part of this journey! :-)
Click here to subscribe to Stuart's weekly email.
SPECIAL OFFER: Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog here.
Work with Stuart's team: At ProSolution Private Clients we encourage clients to adopt a holistic and evidence-based approach when making financial decisions. Visit our website.
IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.
