Hormuz Shock And Your Grocery Bill

A single narrow stretch of water can hit your wallet harder than a dozen news cycles. We dig into the Strait of Hormuz and why heavily restricted marine traffic there can ripple through global oil markets, shipping lanes, and straight into everyday prices, from gas and diesel to bread, milk, and the basics you grab on a routine grocery run. Using real numbers and simple math, we connect what’s happening offshore to what you’ll feel at the checkout line. 

We also look at how fast costs can move when container freight rates spike and insurers add war risk surcharges. When shipping a box from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumps from roughly $1,800 to about $4,000 before fuel and insurance, the price increase doesn’t vanish. It gets passed along, sometimes all the way to a $15.50 item turning into a $22 item. And when buyers cancel contracts because the new costs no longer make sense, you’re not just facing inflation, you may be facing shortages in electronics, spare parts, and other imported goods. 

From there, we get practical. We talk through calm, common-sense prepping: buying extra shelf-stable food like rice, beans, and oats, purchasing in bulk when you can, considering whether topping off fuel is worth it for your situation, and leaning on local sources to reduce exposure to global shipping shocks. If you want a clear, non-hysterical guide to supply chain disruption, energy prices, and how to protect your household budget, hit play, then subscribe, share the show, and leave a quick review.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

You are listening to the Common Sense Practical Prepper. Monsieur by Duck Date. The real duct tape. It fixes everything except that decision. Good evening, Mr. and Mrs. America. From border to border, coast to coast, and all ships at sea. Here is your host, Keith.

Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Crunch

Freight Rates And Price Pass-Through

Practical Stocking Up On Staples

Energy Independence Versus Global Oil

Diesel Math And Farm Price Ripple

Insurance Costs And War Risk

Shortages From Canceled Shipping Contracts

Local Buying And Fuel Price Volatility

Contact Info Mailbag And Wrap-Up

SPEAKER_01 0:20

Hey everybody, this is Keith, and welcome back to the Common Sense Practical Prepper Podcast. March the 18th, 2026. And I'm going to go ahead tonight and do a deep dive into the Straits of Hormuz, the heavily restricted marine traffic, and what it might mean for your grocery bill. I found a really cool website. It's HormuzStraitmonitor.com. It gives a lot of really cool information. So the Straits for the most part have been closed, if not severely restricted, for the last 17 days. In the last 24 hours, only eight ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz, either going in or out. Normally, the daily average is about 60. If you look at this tracker, it tells you how much it's going to cost in time and money if these tankers have to take a different route, if they have to go around the Cape of Good Hope, or if they have to transit a different way other than the Straits. It's really neat. So go take a look at it. You can mess around with it. There's a lot of really neat information. So one thing that was kind of cool was that currently there are 150 ships that are stranded on either side of the straits: 65 tankers, 50 bulk carriers or container ships, and 35 other. I'm not sure what the 35 other are, but that's what's listed. So there is a website that's called the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index that provides a lot of information. Basically, it's the cost of shipping items via container from China to other parts in the world. So, for example, if you ordered a large box of plain t-shirts from China for your t-shirt company here in the United States, so let's say two months ago, that big box of t-shirts cost you$1,800 to ship it from Shanghai to Los Angeles. Now that same box of t-shirts is going to cost about$4,000. That's before we even add on to the increase in fuel. There's a thing called a war risk surcharge. And a lot of these insurance companies are tacking on additional costs to these container ships. So in addition to these extra surcharges, in my opinion, if this continues for another two or three weeks, you and I might be seeing an increase at the grocery store 10 to 20%, again, depending on what you are purchasing. But the increase in fuel prices, it costs more to get your box of Cheerios from the factory to the grocery store. It costs more to get the pigs to the slaughterhouse and from the slaughterhouse to the grocery store. Now, a lot of times these companies will eat that increase as best they can. They'll kind of dig into their margins as best they can, but there comes a point where they're going to have to pass along the increase in price to us. So just a simple increase in fuel, increase in crude goes to diesel, gas, again, it's going to be passed on to us. So if you have the ability, stock some extra rice or beans, oats, anything that's shelf stable, buy in bulk if you can. Instead of getting 10 cans of corn, if you have the money, get 20. Because if we see that increase several weeks from now, it'll be less expensive to have gone out and made that bulk purchase today than it is to buy those extra cans a few weeks from now. Now, the United States, for the most part, is energy independent when it comes to crude and when it comes to liquid natural gas. Approximately 90% of the crude that we have that we use to refine diesel and gas, we get from the ground here in the United States. However, when the global price of a barrel of oil increases, it increases globally. They don't say, okay, United States, you guys are energy independent. Your oil is going to stay at$80 a barrel, but everybody else is going to pay$110. It doesn't work like that. But we pull out a lot of oil, and on a daily basis, the refine about 4.5 million barrels a day, which means we do not need Middle Eastern oil to run our trucks. But like I said before, when crude goes up, it goes up globally. So all of these ships that are transiting all around the world, they use bunker fuel, which we'll just call it diesel. For the most part, it's just basically diesel. Those prices have nearly doubled. That means for every container, every truckload, every time you have to fill up a farm tractor, to work the fields, to get the veggies, it's going to cost more. So here's some quick math. If diesel is at$4.50 a gallon, a semi hauls 20 tons across the country for about$1,200 in fuel. That's how much the fuel costs to get it across the country. If diesel goes to$7 per gallon, that's$1,800 to run that same load, a$600 increase. Farmers have to pass it on. Wheat goes up, bread goes up. Bread goes up, it has to be transported to the grocery store. Fuel cost goes up. We're going to see an increase in those prices. Same with fuel. If you use a lot of fuel, if you live off-grid, if you run generators for your power, consider filling up now and not waiting the next few weeks because the price could potentially increase 10, 20, 30%. We really don't know, but the longer it goes, the higher the price is going to be. Then there's insurance. So these carriers will not run these container ships or these oil tankers without insurance. And it makes sense. We should not drive without insurance on our automobile. If I get into an accident and it's my fault and I don't have insurance, not only am I going to get sued by the person I hit, I'm not going to be able to have the money to repair my vehicle. Now, when it comes to insurance for these carriers, it could be$1 million for the entire ship for the entire trip. Now it's five times as much. So here's how the insurance works with the container ships and the tankers, very similar to our cars. If I live in a small town in Iowa and I drive a 1997 Honda Civic, my insurance for that Honda Civic is not going to be as much for a 2025 BMW if I lived in Chicago. That BMW in Chicago, if it gets damaged, vandalized, or stolen, is going to cost a lot more to have it replaced or repaired. Back to the Honda Civic in Iowa, there is a less likelihood that it's going to be stolen, and therefore less likelihood get into an accident if you're a safe driver. It works the same with these ships. It depends on the age of the ship. It depends on what it's carrying, and it depends on where it's carrying that. If it's in a part of the world that is not known for piracy, is not known for accidents, is not known for severe storms, is not known for the straits being blocked, prohibiting their transit, then that insurance is going to be a lot less. If a ship has to pay extra insurance, it's going to cost more per container, it's going to cost more for your t-shirts, and it's going to be passed on in this in this instance to the t-shirt person. And then you're going to have to pass that on to the customer. So two months ago, the t-shirt that you sold for$15.50, you might have to charge$22 for that same t-shirt because of the rising fuel cost and the rising insurance that you really have nothing to do with. But all of those additional costs have to be passed on ultimately to the person that purchases the bread, the milk, the t-shirt. A lot of folks in the Middle East are just canceling these contracts outright. They're saying to themselves, I don't have the money or I'm not comfortable paying the extra insurance, the extra fuel cost. It's not a sound monetary decision for them to continue paying these higher prices. So there's a chance that spare parts, computer chips, laptops, electronics from China are never going to make the trip across the ocean. It could be just canceled. So look at it this way: whether it's Amazon, Target, Walmart, it is costing more for these items to be shipped from China to the United States. Now, again, China to the United States, we're not worried about mines, we're not worried about being attacked by drones, is basically coming from the fuel. Now, these large corporations with tankers all around the world, if they have tankers that are sitting in the straits, if they have tankers and their insurance is doubling or tripling, they're going to spread that cost out as best they can. So there's a good chance that a container ship that costs a million dollars a trip from the US to China or China to the US, there's a very good chance that they're going to spread out that increase and it's now going to be 1 million five or two million. And then those price increases obviously are spread down to the consumers. So while this is going on, if you can buy local mom and pop hardware stores, farmers market, Craigslist, marketplace on Facebook, you might be able to save a little bit of money. Again, I haven't seen a tremendous increase yet. But then again, it's only been 17 days. Now the price of gas has gone up here in central Virginia, and I'm not really sure if that's because everybody's panicking, everybody's a little jittery, or it's truly because of the increase in oil. What was it, 10 days ago? It hit like 115, then it dropped to like 85 overnight. So it's been fluctuating a lot. So we have to be very careful, watch the prices. And if you have the ability of maybe stockpiling a little gasoline, if you have the ability of stockpiling diesel, it might be worth your time and money to do it now. Now, if I had a large fuel tank, I would certainly do that. But all I have is five or six five-gallon jerry cans. And I have at times done that and saved a few cents here and there. But you just have to figure out if it's really worth it in your particular situation. So if you have a chance, check out the HormuzstraightMonitor.com. It's a really cool website. If you want to reach out to me, practical prep podcast at gmail.com. Of course, I'm on the Twitters, prep underscore podcast. And I will do a mailbag episode pretty soon. I have a lot of emails that are piling up. I've had a lot of questions about Second Amendment, a lot of questions about ARs. I've answered some of those privately. Some people had some questions about firearms. I've answered those privately. I don't see a need to read a lot of those emails about the firearms. If you email me and you don't mind if I read it, let me know. But firearms, Second Amendment, all that is a pretty sensitive subject at the moment. So I will just go ahead and answer those personally. No need for me to read those on the air. All right, folks, keep an eye on things. It could get a lot worse, or things could start to cool down. I know the price of silver has dropped tremendously. I think last week it was 85 or 86, and it's 77 or 78 right now. The feds are not going to raise interest rates. The dollar is doing fantastic. So the price of silver is starting to drop. So it'll be interesting to see how much further it drops. All right, folks, as always, please be careful out there. Take care of one another. And until next time.

SPEAKER_00 12:42

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