{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":6.3,"endTime":7.919,"body":"Thank you very much for joining us"},{"startTime":7.92,"endTime":9.809,"body":"today. My name is Sophie"},{"startTime":9.81,"endTime":11.729,"body":"Fan Hayden. I'm a lecturer at"},{"startTime":11.73,"endTime":13.889,"body":"the Global Development Institute"},{"startTime":13.89,"endTime":15.719,"body":"and it is my great pleasure to"},{"startTime":15.72,"endTime":17.639,"body":"welcome Professor Stefan Declan"},{"startTime":17.64,"endTime":18.599,"body":"today."},{"startTime":18.6,"endTime":20.549,"body":"Stefan is a professor of economic"},{"startTime":20.55,"endTime":22.439,"body":"policy at the Blavatnik"},{"startTime":22.44,"endTime":24.539,"body":"School of Government at Oxford"},{"startTime":24.54,"endTime":26.489,"body":"and also director"},{"startTime":26.49,"endTime":28.469,"body":"of the Centre for the"},{"startTime":28.47,"endTime":30.199,"body":"Study of African Economies."},{"startTime":31.35,"endTime":33.209,"body":"Stefan, you very well versed"},{"startTime":33.21,"endTime":35.129,"body":"in both the world of"},{"startTime":35.13,"endTime":36.989,"body":"politics as well as"},{"startTime":36.99,"endTime":37.799,"body":"economics."},{"startTime":37.8,"endTime":40.229,"body":"You were chief economist of DFID,"},{"startTime":40.23,"endTime":42.479,"body":"now FCDO between"},{"startTime":42.48,"endTime":44.999,"body":"2011 and 2017"},{"startTime":45.0,"endTime":47.009,"body":"and as in that role"},{"startTime":47.01,"endTime":49.109,"body":"in charge of UK's aid"},{"startTime":49.11,"endTime":50.489,"body":"policy and spending."},{"startTime":50.49,"endTime":52.739,"body":"So quite an important role."},{"startTime":52.74,"endTime":54.659,"body":"And since 2020 you"},{"startTime":54.66,"endTime":56.489,"body":"have rejoined part"},{"startTime":56.49,"endTime":59.159,"body":"of that, that activity"},{"startTime":59.16,"endTime":61.079,"body":"and now work as"},{"startTime":61.08,"endTime":63.059,"body":"a development policy advisor"},{"startTime":63.06,"endTime":65.309,"body":"for now FCO."},{"startTime":65.31,"endTime":67.379,"body":"So former DFID."},{"startTime":67.38,"endTime":69.569,"body":"Although I resigned two weeks ago."},{"startTime":69.57,"endTime":70.57,"body":"You did?"},{"startTime":72.42,"endTime":75.269,"body":"Okay, that might be an interesting"},{"startTime":75.27,"endTime":76.449,"body":"question to start."},{"startTime":76.45,"endTime":77.45,"body":"Why is that?"},{"startTime":79.169,"endTime":80.169,"body":"It's... Look,"},{"startTime":81.0,"endTime":82.889,"body":"I joined for a year."},{"startTime":82.89,"endTime":84.839,"body":"I was asked to join as"},{"startTime":84.84,"endTime":85.829,"body":"a policy advisor."},{"startTime":85.83,"endTime":87.629,"body":"So it's not as a political adviser"},{"startTime":87.63,"endTime":89.579,"body":"but as a policy advisor by Dominic"},{"startTime":89.58,"endTime":91.379,"body":"Raab just before the merger."},{"startTime":91.38,"endTime":93.239,"body":"And I just felt having"},{"startTime":93.24,"endTime":95.069,"body":"worked for such a long time at DFID,"},{"startTime":95.07,"endTime":96.899,"body":"I do value what the UK"},{"startTime":96.9,"endTime":99.269,"body":"was doing in development."},{"startTime":99.27,"endTime":100.829,"body":"And so I, I did join."},{"startTime":100.83,"endTime":102.389,"body":"I feel like I have to justify why I"},{"startTime":102.39,"endTime":103.739,"body":"joined in the first instance."},{"startTime":105.6,"endTime":108.569,"body":"But you know we, we are now"},{"startTime":108.57,"endTime":109.68,"body":"not least since"},{"startTime":110.79,"endTime":112.74,"body":"Foreign Secretary Liz Truss came,"},{"startTime":113.85,"endTime":115.619,"body":"you know, in a different world, not"},{"startTime":115.62,"endTime":117.149,"body":"because necessarily because of her,"},{"startTime":117.15,"endTime":118.949,"body":"but where geopolitics and everything"},{"startTime":118.95,"endTime":119.999,"body":"else is changing."},{"startTime":121.35,"endTime":123.479,"body":"And while I had a close relationship"},{"startTime":123.48,"endTime":125.609,"body":"with Dominic Raab"},{"startTime":125.61,"endTime":127.469,"body":"and, you know, a productive"},{"startTime":127.47,"endTime":128.668,"body":"relationship, let's call it like"},{"startTime":128.669,"endTime":130.709,"body":"that, it's less clear"},{"startTime":130.71,"endTime":132.449,"body":"in this very current set up that I"},{"startTime":132.45,"endTime":134.279,"body":"have that much to say."},{"startTime":134.28,"endTime":135.93,"body":"So it's not like"},{"startTime":136.95,"endTime":138.149,"body":"resigning in a huff."},{"startTime":138.15,"endTime":139.379,"body":"It's actually been the slowest"},{"startTime":139.38,"endTime":141.149,"body":"resignation in history that actually"},{"startTime":141.15,"endTime":142.589,"body":"over the last few months, it became"},{"startTime":142.59,"endTime":144.419,"body":"clear that that"},{"startTime":144.42,"endTime":146.639,"body":"probably my value added was"},{"startTime":146.64,"endTime":147.929,"body":"quite, quite limited."},{"startTime":147.93,"endTime":150.059,"body":"And it seems better"},{"startTime":150.06,"endTime":152.069,"body":"to to do what the Prime"},{"startTime":152.07,"endTime":153.629,"body":"Minister clearly wants us to do is"},{"startTime":153.63,"endTime":154.529,"body":"to reduce the number of civil"},{"startTime":154.53,"endTime":155.969,"body":"servants. So that's one less."},{"startTime":157.23,"endTime":160.289,"body":"Yeah, surely that's true."},{"startTime":160.29,"endTime":162.209,"body":"Let's move from you"},{"startTime":162.21,"endTime":164.159,"body":"already mentioned how global"},{"startTime":164.16,"endTime":166.079,"body":"politics has changed and you"},{"startTime":166.08,"endTime":167.699,"body":"recently published your book very"},{"startTime":167.7,"endTime":169.559,"body":"recently, Gambling on"},{"startTime":169.56,"endTime":171.689,"body":"Development Why Some Countries"},{"startTime":171.69,"endTime":173.639,"body":"Win and Others Lose."},{"startTime":173.64,"endTime":175.349,"body":"And today, of course, I wanted to"},{"startTime":175.35,"endTime":177.659,"body":"talk to you about this book"},{"startTime":177.66,"endTime":179.009,"body":"a fair bit."},{"startTime":179.01,"endTime":180.869,"body":"You start that book in"},{"startTime":180.87,"endTime":182.909,"body":"your preamble with"},{"startTime":182.91,"endTime":184.949,"body":"an anecdote of how you visited"},{"startTime":184.95,"endTime":186.779,"body":"China a good decade ago"},{"startTime":186.78,"endTime":188.429,"body":"and how that was a bit of a light"},{"startTime":188.43,"endTime":190.139,"body":"bulb moment for you."},{"startTime":190.14,"endTime":192.089,"body":"So my first question is"},{"startTime":192.09,"endTime":194.129,"body":"first, how has that visit changed"},{"startTime":194.13,"endTime":196.019,"body":"your view of development?"},{"startTime":196.02,"endTime":197.919,"body":"And also how has changed China"},{"startTime":197.92,"endTime":199.139,"body":"or the entrance of China or the"},{"startTime":199.14,"endTime":201.089,"body":"emergence of China has changed"},{"startTime":201.09,"endTime":202.949,"body":"the development discourse more"},{"startTime":202.95,"endTime":204.839,"body":"broadly or maybe hasn't changed"},{"startTime":204.84,"endTime":205.469,"body":"enough?"},{"startTime":205.47,"endTime":207.389,"body":"So at the time that was"},{"startTime":207.39,"endTime":209.249,"body":"my first long"},{"startTime":209.25,"endTime":210.779,"body":"visit to China and it gave me a"},{"startTime":210.78,"endTime":212.369,"body":"chance to travel around, talk to"},{"startTime":212.37,"endTime":214.109,"body":"government officials and actually"},{"startTime":214.11,"endTime":216.119,"body":"begin to learn much more about how"},{"startTime":216.12,"endTime":218.189,"body":"China had developed."},{"startTime":218.19,"endTime":220.139,"body":"Until then, I have been aware,"},{"startTime":220.14,"endTime":221.399,"body":"of course, of the stories that were"},{"startTime":221.4,"endTime":222.809,"body":"taught about China, I'd worked  a"},{"startTime":222.81,"endTime":223.829,"body":"lot in Africa."},{"startTime":223.83,"endTime":225.479,"body":"And you would hear a lot of"},{"startTime":225.48,"endTime":226.799,"body":"countries saying, you know, can't we"},{"startTime":226.8,"endTime":227.819,"body":"do like China?"},{"startTime":227.82,"endTime":229.799,"body":"This idea of what China did"},{"startTime":229.8,"endTime":232.019,"body":"was, you know, state-leddevelopment,"},{"startTime":232.02,"endTime":233.369,"body":"lots of infrastructure, special"},{"startTime":233.37,"endTime":234.599,"body":"economic zones."},{"startTime":234.6,"endTime":236.159,"body":"Maybe that's the way we should be"},{"startTime":236.16,"endTime":237.839,"body":"developing as well in other parts of"},{"startTime":237.84,"endTime":240.119,"body":"the world. And I was,"},{"startTime":240.12,"endTime":242.069,"body":"to say the least, intrigued, and"},{"startTime":242.07,"endTime":243.929,"body":"I could confirm when I"},{"startTime":243.93,"endTime":245.759,"body":"was there that clearly the way China"},{"startTime":245.76,"endTime":247.589,"body":"had done it was in a very unorthodox"},{"startTime":247.59,"endTime":248.999,"body":"way. This is not in the way our"},{"startTime":249.0,"endTime":250.769,"body":"textbooks would say you probably"},{"startTime":250.77,"endTime":251.999,"body":"should be doing it."},{"startTime":252.0,"endTime":253.259,"body":"And the more you looked into the"},{"startTime":253.26,"endTime":255.179,"body":"detail, there was an awful"},{"startTime":255.18,"endTime":257.789,"body":"lot of all kinds of very peculiar"},{"startTime":257.79,"endTime":259.679,"body":"policies that were going on."},{"startTime":259.68,"endTime":261.479,"body":"The way they were dealing with land"},{"startTime":261.48,"endTime":263.699,"body":"and urbanisation and so on."},{"startTime":263.7,"endTime":266.399,"body":"It was all very unorthodox"},{"startTime":266.4,"endTime":268.079,"body":"and very specific."},{"startTime":268.08,"endTime":269.88,"body":"But at the same time what I learnt"},{"startTime":270.9,"endTime":271.9,"body":"is that,"},{"startTime":272.81,"endTime":275.029,"body":"it was actually quite irrelevant"},{"startTime":275.03,"endTime":277.189,"body":"for most of the rest of the world"},{"startTime":277.19,"endTime":279.529,"body":"because China is such a specific"},{"startTime":279.53,"endTime":281.359,"body":"country with such a"},{"startTime":281.36,"endTime":283.819,"body":"long history of a centralised state"},{"startTime":283.82,"endTime":285.769,"body":"with 2000 years of actually"},{"startTime":285.77,"endTime":288.379,"body":"a quite a meritocratic bureaucracy"},{"startTime":288.38,"endTime":290.299,"body":"with central taxation and"},{"startTime":290.3,"endTime":291.379,"body":"so on."},{"startTime":291.38,"endTime":292.789,"body":"There is just no country in the"},{"startTime":292.79,"endTime":294.679,"body":"world where that"},{"startTime":294.68,"endTime":296.779,"body":"kind of model could actually really"},{"startTime":296.78,"endTime":299.089,"body":"succeed in the same way."},{"startTime":299.09,"endTime":300.859,"body":"And it led me to start thinking over"},{"startTime":300.86,"endTime":302.689,"body":"what is it that actually we can"},{"startTime":302.69,"endTime":304.609,"body":"learn from China and what"},{"startTime":304.61,"endTime":306.199,"body":"is it that we can start learning"},{"startTime":306.2,"endTime":307.969,"body":"from successful countries, maybe in"},{"startTime":307.97,"endTime":309.799,"body":"East Asia, but in other parts of"},{"startTime":309.8,"endTime":311.059,"body":"the world?"},{"startTime":311.06,"endTime":312.949,"body":"And that led me to"},{"startTime":312.95,"endTime":315.169,"body":"start thinking about it's not about"},{"startTime":315.17,"endTime":317.509,"body":"what they exactly did, because"},{"startTime":317.51,"endTime":319.369,"body":"what they did was very"},{"startTime":319.37,"endTime":320.899,"body":"context specific."},{"startTime":320.9,"endTime":323.179,"body":"And the success and failure"},{"startTime":323.18,"endTime":324.949,"body":"had a lot to do with what was"},{"startTime":324.95,"endTime":327.049,"body":"possible in the particular context."},{"startTime":327.05,"endTime":330.139,"body":"But more to do with the underlying"},{"startTime":330.14,"endTime":332.329,"body":"commitment by the"},{"startTime":332.33,"endTime":335.629,"body":"Communist Party of China after 1979"},{"startTime":335.63,"endTime":337.549,"body":"and and beyond,"},{"startTime":337.55,"endTime":339.439,"body":"to actually really wanted to"},{"startTime":339.44,"endTime":341.119,"body":"make a success of it and being"},{"startTime":341.12,"endTime":343.279,"body":"willing to, to, to learn"},{"startTime":343.28,"endTime":344.899,"body":"while they were doing and to, to"},{"startTime":344.9,"endTime":346.819,"body":"adapt. So for me, it"},{"startTime":346.82,"endTime":348.649,"body":"changed my view a bit of"},{"startTime":348.65,"endTime":350.329,"body":"what is actually fundamentally the"},{"startTime":350.33,"endTime":351.139,"body":"precondition."},{"startTime":351.14,"endTime":353.149,"body":"It's not so much about the list"},{"startTime":353.15,"endTime":355.759,"body":"of policies you should implement,"},{"startTime":355.76,"endTime":358.099,"body":"but actually the real precondition"},{"startTime":358.1,"endTime":360.049,"body":"is the underlying commitment of"},{"startTime":360.05,"endTime":361.999,"body":"those in power to"},{"startTime":362.0,"endTime":364.129,"body":"actually wanting to"},{"startTime":364.13,"endTime":365.659,"body":"do growth and development and"},{"startTime":365.66,"endTime":367.489,"body":"willing to learn and adjust"},{"startTime":367.49,"endTime":368.899,"body":"while they're doing it."},{"startTime":368.9,"endTime":370.759,"body":"Add to that willingness of"},{"startTime":370.76,"endTime":373.429,"body":"an elite to"},{"startTime":373.43,"endTime":375.409,"body":"commit to development or to"},{"startTime":375.41,"endTime":377.869,"body":"lift their citizens out of poverty"},{"startTime":377.87,"endTime":379.879,"body":"as a lead bargain, in your book,"},{"startTime":379.88,"endTime":381.439,"body":"which is the theoretical approach"},{"startTime":381.44,"endTime":382.999,"body":"that you lay out there."},{"startTime":383.0,"endTime":384.739,"body":"How does that theoretical approach"},{"startTime":384.74,"endTime":386.689,"body":"compare and contrast from,"},{"startTime":386.69,"endTime":388.699,"body":"let's say, other approaches such"},{"startTime":388.7,"endTime":390.769,"body":"as political settlement or"},{"startTime":390.77,"endTime":392.209,"body":"maybe other political economy"},{"startTime":392.21,"endTime":393.499,"body":"approaches more broadly?"},{"startTime":394.72,"endTime":396.199,"body":"There there are close links."},{"startTime":396.2,"endTime":398.209,"body":"Maybe I should explain first,"},{"startTime":398.21,"endTime":400.009,"body":"you know, how I kind of think about"},{"startTime":400.01,"endTime":401.51,"body":"it. You know, I think"},{"startTime":403.07,"endTime":404.659,"body":"when I look around the world and"},{"startTime":404.66,"endTime":406.099,"body":"that means not just developing"},{"startTime":406.1,"endTime":408.109,"body":"countries or emerging economies, but"},{"startTime":408.11,"endTime":410.059,"body":"all across the world."},{"startTime":410.06,"endTime":411.06,"body":"States,"},{"startTime":413.21,"endTime":414.499,"body":"I tend to look at them as"},{"startTime":414.5,"endTime":416.359,"body":"fundamentally the result of"},{"startTime":416.36,"endTime":418.009,"body":"of of of an elite bargain."},{"startTime":418.01,"endTime":419.959,"body":"Where I mean by the elite, not"},{"startTime":419.96,"endTime":422.059,"body":"just the political leadership,"},{"startTime":422.06,"endTime":424.099,"body":"but actually senior leaders"},{"startTime":424.1,"endTime":425.509,"body":"in business, senior leaders in the"},{"startTime":425.51,"endTime":427.099,"body":"civil service, maybe in civil"},{"startTime":427.1,"endTime":429.049,"body":"society, in academia and so"},{"startTime":429.05,"endTime":431.569,"body":"on. So basically this broad"},{"startTime":431.57,"endTime":433.549,"body":"layers of society that actually"},{"startTime":433.55,"endTime":435.289,"body":"has power or influence, you know,"},{"startTime":435.29,"endTime":437.149,"body":"they may be in power"},{"startTime":437.15,"endTime":438.859,"body":"or they may not be itself, but they"},{"startTime":438.86,"endTime":440.179,"body":"would still be influential in the"},{"startTime":440.18,"endTime":442.309,"body":"direction that that the country"},{"startTime":442.31,"endTime":444.299,"body":"goes. Now, just looking"},{"startTime":444.3,"endTime":446.149,"body":"as any state, as"},{"startTime":446.15,"endTime":447.15,"body":"a kind of an elite bargin,"},{"startTime":448.1,"endTime":450.379,"body":"has strong historical roots"},{"startTime":450.38,"endTime":452.209,"body":"as well, or at least in"},{"startTime":452.21,"endTime":454.999,"body":"the thinking about economic history"},{"startTime":455.0,"endTime":457.009,"body":"as well. So for example, Douglas"},{"startTime":457.01,"endTime":459.319,"body":"North, the economic historian,"},{"startTime":459.32,"endTime":461.419,"body":"which would look at basically"},{"startTime":461.42,"endTime":463.399,"body":"the emergence of states being"},{"startTime":463.4,"endTime":465.169,"body":"fundamentally this kind of elite"},{"startTime":465.17,"endTime":467.119,"body":"bargain between elite groups"},{"startTime":467.12,"endTime":468.259,"body":"where basically,"},{"startTime":469.34,"endTime":471.589,"body":"you know, roving bandits"},{"startTime":472.7,"endTime":474.529,"body":"decide it seems to be better for"},{"startTime":474.53,"endTime":476.749,"body":"us to become stationary bandits"},{"startTime":476.75,"endTime":478.879,"body":"and basically divide"},{"startTime":478.88,"endTime":480.869,"body":"the rents, control the access"},{"startTime":480.87,"endTime":482.809,"body":"to the resources, control who can do"},{"startTime":482.81,"endTime":483.829,"body":"what kind of activities."},{"startTime":483.83,"endTime":485.719,"body":"And I think so it leads me"},{"startTime":485.72,"endTime":487.819,"body":"to kind of think about every"},{"startTime":487.82,"endTime":490.099,"body":"society, as, as that kind"},{"startTime":490.1,"endTime":491.959,"body":"of elite bargain even"},{"startTime":491.96,"endTime":493.909,"body":"today. And it usually has"},{"startTime":493.91,"endTime":495.799,"body":"elements of"},{"startTime":495.8,"endTime":497.539,"body":"a political deal, you know, who who"},{"startTime":497.54,"endTime":499.939,"body":"has power, who makes decisions."},{"startTime":499.94,"endTime":500.929,"body":"You know, it could be through"},{"startTime":500.93,"endTime":502.879,"body":"democracies, but in all kinds"},{"startTime":502.88,"endTime":504.589,"body":"of ways, because, you know, certain"},{"startTime":504.59,"endTime":505.59,"body":"democracies,"},{"startTime":506.69,"endTime":508.549,"body":"money plays a bigger role than in"},{"startTime":508.55,"endTime":509.929,"body":"other places."},{"startTime":509.93,"endTime":512.569,"body":"You could have autocracies where"},{"startTime":512.57,"endTime":514.038,"body":"there's still checks and balances"},{"startTime":514.039,"endTime":515.029,"body":"within the system."},{"startTime":515.03,"endTime":515.808,"body":"Think of China."},{"startTime":515.809,"endTime":517.099,"body":"Within the Communist Party, there"},{"startTime":517.1,"endTime":518.359,"body":"are certain checks and balances."},{"startTime":518.36,"endTime":520.519,"body":"So so how"},{"startTime":520.52,"endTime":522.499,"body":"the political deal is shaped is"},{"startTime":522.5,"endTime":524.149,"body":"one part, but it usually also"},{"startTime":524.15,"endTime":525.919,"body":"implies an economic deal and a"},{"startTime":525.92,"endTime":527.179,"body":"basically the way"},{"startTime":528.41,"endTime":530.449,"body":"groups can access"},{"startTime":530.45,"endTime":532.339,"body":"to the state or to the resources of"},{"startTime":532.34,"endTime":533.779,"body":"the country at a distribution."},{"startTime":533.78,"endTime":535.639,"body":"And of course, you could have"},{"startTime":535.64,"endTime":537.529,"body":"a lot of different forms that this"},{"startTime":537.53,"endTime":539.299,"body":"political economic deal takes."},{"startTime":539.3,"endTime":541.249,"body":"And, you know, we have names often"},{"startTime":541.25,"endTime":542.219,"body":"for it. For it."},{"startTime":542.22,"endTime":543.859,"body":"You know, we could we could talk"},{"startTime":543.86,"endTime":545.809,"body":"about capitalist societies where"},{"startTime":545.81,"endTime":547.879,"body":"essentially there is limited"},{"startTime":547.88,"endTime":549.739,"body":"balance on on"},{"startTime":549.74,"endTime":551.149,"body":"once you have capital, you can keep"},{"startTime":551.15,"endTime":552.679,"body":"on accumulating it, which means in"},{"startTime":552.68,"endTime":554.569,"body":"our societies, even the 13th"},{"startTime":554.57,"endTime":556.969,"body":"century, my"},{"startTime":556.97,"endTime":559.039,"body":"ancestors happened to be a knights"},{"startTime":559.04,"endTime":560.659,"body":"that was good friends with the king."},{"startTime":560.66,"endTime":562.519,"body":"I probably am still rich today"},{"startTime":562.52,"endTime":564.259,"body":"and I have inheritance laws that"},{"startTime":564.26,"endTime":566.119,"body":"protect that accumulation of"},{"startTime":566.12,"endTime":568.069,"body":"wealth in that capitalist society."},{"startTime":568.07,"endTime":569.089,"body":"You could imagine a capitalist"},{"startTime":569.09,"endTime":570.289,"body":"society where you didn't have"},{"startTime":570.29,"endTime":572.149,"body":"inheritance laws and so on"},{"startTime":572.15,"endTime":573.679,"body":"that. We look very differently."},{"startTime":573.68,"endTime":574.789,"body":"Of course, you can also have"},{"startTime":574.79,"endTime":576.619,"body":"kleptocracy where the whole state"},{"startTime":576.62,"endTime":578.359,"body":"is focussed on stealing from"},{"startTime":578.36,"endTime":580.309,"body":"everyone around it and stashing"},{"startTime":580.31,"endTime":582.319,"body":"the money away to serve a very small"},{"startTime":582.32,"endTime":583.519,"body":"number of people."},{"startTime":583.52,"endTime":585.079,"body":"Or you could have more clientelist"},{"startTime":585.08,"endTime":586.08,"body":"societies, where"},{"startTime":587.54,"endTime":589.129,"body":"the state fundamentally becomes a"},{"startTime":589.13,"endTime":590.869,"body":"job creating scheme and a rent"},{"startTime":590.87,"endTime":592.729,"body":"sharing scheme for those who help"},{"startTime":592.73,"endTime":594.559,"body":"you in power and keep your power."},{"startTime":594.56,"endTime":595.909,"body":"So you could have a whole range of"},{"startTime":595.91,"endTime":597.889,"body":"societies. And I think actually,"},{"startTime":597.89,"endTime":599.089,"body":"you know, I come from Belgium."},{"startTime":599.09,"endTime":601.579,"body":"I think all these features apply to,"},{"startTime":601.58,"endTime":603.139,"body":"to, to, to society."},{"startTime":603.14,"endTime":604.939,"body":"I've worked long enough in Whitehall"},{"startTime":604.94,"endTime":606.559,"body":"to realise, you know, there are"},{"startTime":606.56,"endTime":608.509,"body":"elements of it, there's no purity"},{"startTime":608.51,"endTime":610.159,"body":"to this. There is somewhere or"},{"startTime":610.16,"endTime":613.129,"body":"another a complexity."},{"startTime":613.13,"endTime":614.149,"body":"Sorry."},{"startTime":614.15,"endTime":615.679,"body":"There is a, there's a complexity to"},{"startTime":615.68,"endTime":616.729,"body":"these deals, but there's actually"},{"startTime":616.73,"endTime":619.039,"body":"features of imperfection"},{"startTime":619.04,"endTime":620.659,"body":"that every of these political"},{"startTime":620.66,"endTime":621.649,"body":"economic deals have."},{"startTime":621.65,"endTime":622.939,"body":"Now, how does it relate with other"},{"startTime":622.94,"endTime":624.109,"body":"approaches? Of course."},{"startTime":624.11,"endTime":625.969,"body":"It has lots of lots"},{"startTime":625.97,"endTime":626.749,"body":"of links to it."},{"startTime":626.75,"endTime":628.339,"body":"You know, the study of elite"},{"startTime":628.34,"endTime":630.649,"body":"bargains probably predates"},{"startTime":630.65,"endTime":632.149,"body":"works on some of the political"},{"startTime":632.15,"endTime":633.409,"body":"settlements."},{"startTime":633.41,"endTime":635.599,"body":"I refer in the book to political"},{"startTime":635.6,"endTime":637.309,"body":"settlements, there's sometimes that"},{"startTime":637.31,"endTime":639.289,"body":"I worry a bit about the"},{"startTime":639.29,"endTime":641.119,"body":"term because it"},{"startTime":641.12,"endTime":643.729,"body":"highlights too much the politics"},{"startTime":643.73,"endTime":645.559,"body":"and even though it's not meant to"},{"startTime":645.56,"endTime":647.539,"body":"be but for people who"},{"startTime":647.54,"endTime":648.889,"body":"are not political scientists say,"},{"startTime":648.89,"endTime":651.199,"body":"oh, it's all about the political"},{"startTime":651.2,"endTime":652.129,"body":"settlement."},{"startTime":652.13,"endTime":653.389,"body":"Well, actually, I want to say it's"},{"startTime":653.39,"endTime":655.249,"body":"much broader in terms of the elite"},{"startTime":655.25,"endTime":656.989,"body":"bargain. I know a lot of the work in"},{"startTime":656.99,"endTime":658.279,"body":"political settlements brings the"},{"startTime":658.28,"endTime":659.629,"body":"economic and politics closely"},{"startTime":659.63,"endTime":660.589,"body":"together."},{"startTime":660.59,"endTime":661.639,"body":"There's also something about"},{"startTime":661.64,"endTime":663.379,"body":"settlement that I worry about, which"},{"startTime":663.38,"endTime":665.119,"body":"is a bit like for me, the political"},{"startTime":665.12,"endTime":666.439,"body":"scientist not wants to use"},{"startTime":666.44,"endTime":667.639,"body":"equilibrium, which is what the"},{"startTime":667.64,"endTime":669.469,"body":"economist I would use,"},{"startTime":669.47,"endTime":671.509,"body":"but actually settlements"},{"startTime":671.51,"endTime":672.859,"body":"makes it sound that's all quite"},{"startTime":672.86,"endTime":673.669,"body":"settled."},{"startTime":673.67,"endTime":675.919,"body":"And as I say, it is something that"},{"startTime":675.92,"endTime":677.629,"body":"there is also sometimes and I'm not"},{"startTime":677.63,"endTime":679.579,"body":"saying always, but some of the some"},{"startTime":679.58,"endTime":681.229,"body":"of the usage so occasionally alludes"},{"startTime":681.23,"endTime":682.669,"body":"to it as if there is only one"},{"startTime":682.67,"endTime":685.399,"body":"settlement at any moment in time."},{"startTime":685.4,"endTime":687.109,"body":"And actually, when it comes to a"},{"startTime":687.11,"endTime":688.249,"body":"bargain, there's a lot of bargains"},{"startTime":688.25,"endTime":689.569,"body":"to be struck. You know, and if you"},{"startTime":689.57,"endTime":691.009,"body":"go to basic game theory, that's"},{"startTime":691.01,"endTime":692.509,"body":"usually multiple equilibriums that"},{"startTime":692.51,"endTime":694.609,"body":"could come about some more stable"},{"startTime":694.61,"endTime":695.629,"body":"than others."},{"startTime":695.63,"endTime":697.639,"body":"And by using that bargain language,"},{"startTime":697.64,"endTime":699.619,"body":"I probably want to allude a bit more"},{"startTime":699.62,"endTime":702.259,"body":"to this potential instability"},{"startTime":702.26,"endTime":704.539,"body":"than needs to rekeep on recreating"},{"startTime":704.54,"endTime":705.409,"body":"it. It's not settled."},{"startTime":705.41,"endTime":706.939,"body":"It needs to be recreated it all the"},{"startTime":706.94,"endTime":708.589,"body":"time and it shifts all the time a"},{"startTime":708.59,"endTime":710.539,"body":"little bit, not least when"},{"startTime":710.54,"endTime":712.489,"body":"it comes down to probably what"},{"startTime":712.49,"endTime":713.959,"body":"is the core thesis of my book is"},{"startTime":713.96,"endTime":715.209,"body":"say, you know,"},{"startTime":716.57,"endTime":718.309,"body":"we need a particular type of elite"},{"startTime":718.31,"endTime":719.959,"body":"bargaining to get development, which"},{"startTime":719.96,"endTime":722.089,"body":"is actually one that really values"},{"startTime":722.09,"endTime":723.745,"body":"as a key feature of the elite"},{"startTime":723.746,"endTime":725.869,"body":"bargin, growth and development."},{"startTime":725.87,"endTime":728.239,"body":"And now"},{"startTime":728.24,"endTime":729.499,"body":"I call that view gambling on"},{"startTime":729.5,"endTime":731.539,"body":"development because any elite"},{"startTime":731.54,"endTime":733.249,"body":"that settles on that, that is"},{"startTime":733.25,"endTime":735.289,"body":"clearly quite a gamble because it"},{"startTime":735.29,"endTime":737.899,"body":"will unleash political dynamics"},{"startTime":737.9,"endTime":740.179,"body":"where new elites will emerge,"},{"startTime":740.18,"endTime":742.129,"body":"existing elites fear the threats"},{"startTime":742.13,"endTime":744.079,"body":"and so it requires this kind"},{"startTime":744.08,"endTime":746.029,"body":"of dynamic view"},{"startTime":746.03,"endTime":747.589,"body":"of it that actually, wow, the"},{"startTime":747.59,"endTime":749.029,"body":"country is and succeeds in keeping"},{"startTime":749.03,"endTime":751.339,"body":"that together and succeeding in it."},{"startTime":751.34,"endTime":752.569,"body":"I actually have quite a lot of"},{"startTime":752.57,"endTime":754.549,"body":"admiration for, because for"},{"startTime":754.55,"endTime":756.289,"body":"most elites, the status quo is"},{"startTime":756.29,"endTime":758.269,"body":"probably the safest place to be."},{"startTime":758.27,"endTime":760.309,"body":"And so this is a bit where where I"},{"startTime":760.31,"endTime":761.599,"body":"want to get that again, the"},{"startTime":761.6,"endTime":763.459,"body":"political settlements approach,"},{"startTime":763.46,"endTime":766.099,"body":"while descriptively I"},{"startTime":766.1,"endTime":767.569,"body":"have few objections to it or"},{"startTime":767.57,"endTime":769.489,"body":"analytically a few objections to it,"},{"startTime":769.49,"endTime":771.349,"body":"I think it alludes to"},{"startTime":771.35,"endTime":773.359,"body":"something that probably doesn't want"},{"startTime":773.36,"endTime":775.039,"body":"to be. So that's why I use also the"},{"startTime":775.04,"endTime":776.539,"body":"terminology in a slightly different."},{"startTime":777.71,"endTime":778.609,"body":"Excellent."},{"startTime":778.61,"endTime":781.309,"body":"And moving on from the"},{"startTime":781.31,"endTime":783.379,"body":"elite bargain"},{"startTime":783.38,"endTime":785.629,"body":"to, so a lot of the discussion"},{"startTime":785.63,"endTime":787.219,"body":"is within countries, within"},{"startTime":787.22,"endTime":789.559,"body":"economies or nation states."},{"startTime":789.56,"endTime":791.899,"body":"Now, you alluded to"},{"startTime":791.9,"endTime":793.879,"body":"successful bargains, but"},{"startTime":793.88,"endTime":795.859,"body":"also these can fail."},{"startTime":795.86,"endTime":798.229,"body":"So we can have powerful"},{"startTime":798.23,"endTime":800.149,"body":"interests that go into"},{"startTime":800.15,"endTime":802.069,"body":"bargain but the outcome of that"},{"startTime":802.07,"endTime":804.049,"body":"bargain might either not exist"},{"startTime":804.05,"endTime":806.209,"body":"or it might fail or it might lead"},{"startTime":806.21,"endTime":808.339,"body":"to something that isn't attuned"},{"startTime":808.34,"endTime":809.809,"body":"to development."},{"startTime":809.81,"endTime":811.159,"body":"Now, looking at the global"},{"startTime":811.16,"endTime":813.049,"body":"challenges that we face, such"},{"startTime":813.05,"endTime":815.089,"body":"as climate change."},{"startTime":815.09,"endTime":816.979,"body":"How do we think"},{"startTime":816.98,"endTime":818.989,"body":"of a political"},{"startTime":818.99,"endTime":820.939,"body":"or political bargain or any"},{"startTime":820.94,"endTime":823.129,"body":"elite bargain that would"},{"startTime":823.13,"endTime":825.109,"body":"help us"},{"startTime":825.11,"endTime":827.599,"body":"address global challenges"},{"startTime":827.6,"endTime":828.569,"body":"such as this?"},{"startTime":828.57,"endTime":831.289,"body":"So so I'm"},{"startTime":831.29,"endTime":833.089,"body":"I'm probably slightly pessimistic"},{"startTime":833.09,"endTime":835.159,"body":"about this, in this respect."},{"startTime":836.37,"endTime":838.379,"body":"And, you know, however"},{"startTime":838.38,"endTime":840.149,"body":"much admiration I have of countries"},{"startTime":840.15,"endTime":842.099,"body":"that settle in an elite bargain for"},{"startTime":842.1,"endTime":843.149,"body":"growth and development."},{"startTime":844.59,"endTime":846.329,"body":"And they are I mean, the good news"},{"startTime":846.33,"endTime":847.169,"body":"here is that the more and more"},{"startTime":847.17,"endTime":849.209,"body":"countries doing this and quite"},{"startTime":849.21,"endTime":850.679,"body":"unlikely countries, you know, I in"},{"startTime":850.68,"endTime":852.239,"body":"the book, I talk quite I have a"},{"startTime":852.24,"endTime":854.339,"body":"chapter on Bangladesh which I find"},{"startTime":854.34,"endTime":856.529,"body":"such a great example"},{"startTime":856.53,"endTime":857.53,"body":"because"},{"startTime":859.04,"endTime":861.199,"body":"my very first essay in Development"},{"startTime":861.2,"endTime":863.149,"body":"Economics had a title, and this"},{"startTime":863.15,"endTime":864.169,"body":"would be talking about the early"},{"startTime":864.17,"endTime":865.219,"body":"1980s."},{"startTime":865.22,"endTime":867.116,"body":"I had to write about 'Is"},{"startTime":867.117,"endTime":868.579,"body":"East Bangladesh, a basket case?',"},{"startTime":868.58,"endTime":869.929,"body":"which was what actually Henry"},{"startTime":869.93,"endTime":871.369,"body":"Kissinger, or at least one of his"},{"startTime":871.37,"endTime":872.599,"body":"aides have called it."},{"startTime":872.6,"endTime":874.519,"body":"And of course, I answered, Yes, it"},{"startTime":874.52,"endTime":875.989,"body":"is. Nothing will ever come from"},{"startTime":875.99,"endTime":877.309,"body":"Bangladesh."},{"startTime":877.31,"endTime":878.749,"body":"Now, of course, it proves us totally"},{"startTime":878.75,"endTime":880.369,"body":"wrong. And actually, you know, it's"},{"startTime":880.37,"endTime":882.199,"body":"not a rich country, by no means, but"},{"startTime":882.2,"endTime":884.209,"body":"it's come a long way from this image"},{"startTime":884.21,"endTime":885.799,"body":"of like a real basket case of"},{"startTime":885.8,"endTime":887.209,"body":"development in the world to"},{"startTime":887.21,"endTime":888.499,"body":"something else."},{"startTime":888.5,"endTime":890.689,"body":"So so that's quite hopeful."},{"startTime":890.69,"endTime":893.209,"body":"And I think more and more countries"},{"startTime":893.21,"endTime":894.709,"body":"try this out."},{"startTime":894.71,"endTime":896.479,"body":"They gamble on it."},{"startTime":896.48,"endTime":898.259,"body":"You know, can Bangladesh renew its"},{"startTime":898.26,"endTime":900.359,"body":"elite bargaining is another issue."},{"startTime":900.36,"endTime":902.029,"body":"It's clearly needs to do some new"},{"startTime":902.03,"endTime":903.559,"body":"things. I'm actually travelling to"},{"startTime":903.56,"endTime":905.629,"body":"Bangladesh next week to actually"},{"startTime":905.63,"endTime":907.369,"body":"also talk to people around that and"},{"startTime":907.37,"endTime":909.319,"body":"so on. And yeah, but"},{"startTime":909.32,"endTime":911.509,"body":"that gives me optimism for places"},{"startTime":911.51,"endTime":912.649,"body":"like that."},{"startTime":912.65,"endTime":914.059,"body":"There's also gambles that can go"},{"startTime":914.06,"endTime":915.709,"body":"wrong. You refer to it."},{"startTime":915.71,"endTime":917.389,"body":"You know, I in the book, I talk"},{"startTime":917.39,"endTime":919.009,"body":"about the gamble in Ethiopia"},{"startTime":919.01,"endTime":920.869,"body":"probably arguably starting"},{"startTime":920.87,"endTime":922.639,"body":"in the early 1990s, but probably"},{"startTime":922.64,"endTime":925.039,"body":"mainly after 2005,"},{"startTime":925.04,"endTime":927.019,"body":"where a regime with"},{"startTime":927.02,"endTime":928.759,"body":"probably limited, with a very"},{"startTime":928.76,"endTime":930.619,"body":"fragile political deal, a"},{"startTime":930.62,"endTime":932.307,"body":"fragmented elite that had at that"},{"startTime":932.308,"endTime":934.699,"body":"moment still some kind of deal"},{"startTime":934.7,"endTime":935.989,"body":"on the politics, and of course,"},{"startTime":935.99,"endTime":937.039,"body":"there's lots of the different"},{"startTime":937.04,"endTime":938.899,"body":"nationalities Tigrayans,"},{"startTime":938.9,"endTime":940.579,"body":"Amharas, Oromos that played all a"},{"startTime":940.58,"endTime":942.019,"body":"bigger, big role."},{"startTime":942.02,"endTime":944.029,"body":"But actually the political deal"},{"startTime":944.03,"endTime":945.469,"body":"is very fragile for all kinds of"},{"startTime":945.47,"endTime":947.599,"body":"reasons, including, you know,"},{"startTime":947.6,"endTime":949.819,"body":"losing support in the urban areas"},{"startTime":949.82,"endTime":951.919,"body":"on a political level."},{"startTime":951.92,"endTime":954.019,"body":"They gamble on development very"},{"startTime":954.02,"endTime":955.399,"body":"much so. They go for growth and"},{"startTime":955.4,"endTime":957.499,"body":"development in a very big way."},{"startTime":958.82,"endTime":960.169,"body":"But actually, the political deal,"},{"startTime":960.17,"endTime":962.029,"body":"the underlying political deal proves"},{"startTime":962.03,"endTime":963.139,"body":"to be too fragile."},{"startTime":963.14,"endTime":964.479,"body":"And if we think of the conflicts"},{"startTime":964.48,"endTime":966.379,"body":"since 2020, you know, these were"},{"startTime":966.38,"endTime":968.269,"body":"people that were definitely in an"},{"startTime":968.27,"endTime":970.129,"body":"elite bargain in 2005."},{"startTime":970.13,"endTime":971.449,"body":"In fact, there were all the"},{"startTime":971.45,"endTime":974.329,"body":"different opposing parties"},{"startTime":974.33,"endTime":976.219,"body":"in the conflict essentially"},{"startTime":976.22,"endTime":978.319,"body":"were in the same government running"},{"startTime":978.32,"endTime":979.789,"body":"the country together as a coalition"},{"startTime":979.79,"endTime":980.719,"body":"of power."},{"startTime":980.72,"endTime":982.429,"body":"So it can go wrong now."},{"startTime":982.43,"endTime":984.289,"body":"Now we go to global parts."},{"startTime":985.7,"endTime":987.439,"body":"So so where I get pessimistic is"},{"startTime":987.44,"endTime":989.329,"body":"that, you know, if if"},{"startTime":989.33,"endTime":991.129,"body":"you have governments and I name a"},{"startTime":991.13,"endTime":993.049,"body":"few that are not impressing"},{"startTime":993.05,"endTime":995.089,"body":"me, let me put it mildly."},{"startTime":995.09,"endTime":997.739,"body":"Whether it's the DRC or"},{"startTime":997.74,"endTime":999.349,"body":"Malawi or the political and economic"},{"startTime":999.35,"endTime":1001.449,"body":"deals in Malawi or Sierra Leone,"},{"startTime":1001.45,"endTime":1002.919,"body":"they're not quite or they were not"},{"startTime":1002.92,"endTime":1004.569,"body":"impressing me. Maybe things may"},{"startTime":1004.57,"endTime":1006.429,"body":"change every day, but they're we're"},{"startTime":1006.43,"endTime":1007.96,"body":"not depressingly the past,"},{"startTime":1009.82,"endTime":1011.679,"body":"you know, when we need to now"},{"startTime":1011.68,"endTime":1013.539,"body":"global agreements, you"},{"startTime":1013.54,"endTime":1015.369,"body":"know, if they can't"},{"startTime":1015.37,"endTime":1016.479,"body":"even do it themselves for"},{"startTime":1016.48,"endTime":1018.249,"body":"development, why would they pay any"},{"startTime":1018.25,"endTime":1021.099,"body":"attention to global global issues?"},{"startTime":1021.1,"endTime":1022.299,"body":"But of course, I talk about the"},{"startTime":1022.3,"endTime":1024.729,"body":"poorest countries here."},{"startTime":1024.73,"endTime":1026.029,"body":"The ones that we really need"},{"startTime":1027.22,"endTime":1029.858,"body":"for these global deals are"},{"startTime":1029.859,"endTime":1031.598,"body":"probably the emerging economies,"},{"startTime":1031.599,"endTime":1033.19,"body":"which already have a much higher"},{"startTime":1036.52,"endTime":1038.769,"body":"carbon footprint trajectories"},{"startTime":1038.77,"endTime":1039.77,"body":"and so on."},{"startTime":1040.359,"endTime":1041.949,"body":"There are probably have a certain"},{"startTime":1041.95,"endTime":1043.989,"body":"optimism in it because, you know,"},{"startTime":1043.99,"endTime":1045.789,"body":"at some point it becomes part of"},{"startTime":1045.79,"endTime":1047.618,"body":"their international relations, their"},{"startTime":1047.619,"endTime":1049.239,"body":"their ability to project themselves"},{"startTime":1049.24,"endTime":1050.169,"body":"in the world and I'm thinking of"},{"startTime":1050.17,"endTime":1052.269,"body":"India and China, but actually,"},{"startTime":1052.27,"endTime":1053.979,"body":"you know, they will get into some"},{"startTime":1053.98,"endTime":1056.019,"body":"kind of a deal"},{"startTime":1056.02,"endTime":1057.369,"body":"or two to work on it."},{"startTime":1057.37,"endTime":1059.619,"body":"Now, it will be slow"},{"startTime":1059.62,"endTime":1060.819,"body":"and it will be too slow."},{"startTime":1060.82,"endTime":1062.679,"body":"That's where my pessimism come."},{"startTime":1062.68,"endTime":1064.479,"body":"And the one thing it will definitely"},{"startTime":1064.48,"endTime":1066.339,"body":"be simply by referring to all."},{"startTime":1066.34,"endTime":1068.049,"body":"But they all signed up to the SDGs"},{"startTime":1068.05,"endTime":1069.879,"body":"and everything is fine"},{"startTime":1069.88,"endTime":1071.499,"body":"because the problem with these kind"},{"startTime":1071.5,"endTime":1073.449,"body":"of declarations, they are not a"},{"startTime":1073.45,"endTime":1074.889,"body":"global elite bargain."},{"startTime":1074.89,"endTime":1076.719,"body":"They're not a global shared"},{"startTime":1076.72,"endTime":1078.729,"body":"commitment, despite the fact that"},{"startTime":1078.73,"endTime":1080.41,"body":"all these leaders sign up to it."},{"startTime":1081.58,"endTime":1083.679,"body":"For those for or"},{"startTime":1083.68,"endTime":1085.119,"body":"for those who have signed up to it,"},{"startTime":1085.12,"endTime":1086.589,"body":"and they really want development in"},{"startTime":1086.59,"endTime":1088.089,"body":"their countries."},{"startTime":1088.09,"endTime":1089.319,"body":"While you probably don't need the"},{"startTime":1089.32,"endTime":1091.179,"body":"U.N. to make them sign it up"},{"startTime":1091.18,"endTime":1093.159,"body":"for them, for those who"},{"startTime":1093.16,"endTime":1095.109,"body":"actually are absolutely not"},{"startTime":1095.11,"endTime":1096.399,"body":"interested to even in their own"},{"startTime":1096.4,"endTime":1098.139,"body":"countries for growth and"},{"startTime":1098.14,"endTime":1100.029,"body":"development, you know,"},{"startTime":1100.03,"endTime":1101.529,"body":"why would they care about anything"},{"startTime":1101.53,"endTime":1102.909,"body":"global? You know, that's not the"},{"startTime":1102.91,"endTime":1103.899,"body":"game they're playing."},{"startTime":1103.9,"endTime":1105.729,"body":"And so that's not"},{"startTime":1105.73,"endTime":1106.659,"body":"a kind of process."},{"startTime":1106.66,"endTime":1108.789,"body":"But, you know, I'm quite hopeful"},{"startTime":1108.79,"endTime":1110.619,"body":"in at one level that more and"},{"startTime":1110.62,"endTime":1112.539,"body":"more countries will be"},{"startTime":1112.54,"endTime":1113.769,"body":"part of that global,"},{"startTime":1115.48,"endTime":1116.347,"body":"that global deal formation, partly"},{"startTime":1116.348,"endTime":1117.348,"body":"because"},{"startTime":1118.33,"endTime":1119.739,"body":"they are themselves on development"},{"startTime":1119.74,"endTime":1122.289,"body":"trajectories. But look, the way"},{"startTime":1122.29,"endTime":1124.629,"body":"rich countries have played this game"},{"startTime":1124.63,"endTime":1126.569,"body":"is quite"},{"startTime":1126.57,"endTime":1128.699,"body":"awful. You know, they've they've"},{"startTime":1128.7,"endTime":1131.069,"body":"created so much obscurity"},{"startTime":1131.07,"endTime":1133.619,"body":"and ambiguity around"},{"startTime":1133.62,"endTime":1135.839,"body":"what the relevant footprint"},{"startTime":1135.84,"endTime":1137.969,"body":"is that we should be looking at."},{"startTime":1137.97,"endTime":1140.009,"body":"We got ourselves in Paris agreements"},{"startTime":1140.01,"endTime":1141.929,"body":"that are focussed on flows, while"},{"startTime":1141.93,"endTime":1143.789,"body":"actually it's stocks"},{"startTime":1143.79,"endTime":1145.859,"body":"of CO2 emissions that matter most,"},{"startTime":1145.86,"endTime":1147.929,"body":"where we still bear"},{"startTime":1147.93,"endTime":1149.819,"body":"most of the responsibility."},{"startTime":1149.82,"endTime":1151.769,"body":"So, you know, if we"},{"startTime":1151.77,"endTime":1153.749,"body":"have not play totally"},{"startTime":1153.75,"endTime":1156.419,"body":"fairly, how can we expect"},{"startTime":1156.42,"endTime":1158.129,"body":"emerging economies and developing"},{"startTime":1158.13,"endTime":1160.259,"body":"countries to really, totally embrace"},{"startTime":1160.26,"endTime":1161.459,"body":"it? So there's a lot of work to be"},{"startTime":1161.46,"endTime":1162.509,"body":"done, and I'm not the most"},{"startTime":1162.51,"endTime":1163.919,"body":"optimistic person on that."},{"startTime":1163.92,"endTime":1165.269,"body":"But it will have to happen."},{"startTime":1165.27,"endTime":1167.909,"body":"But it will be, unfortunately,"},{"startTime":1167.91,"endTime":1169.409,"body":"later than It should happen."},{"startTime":1172.33,"endTime":1174.009,"body":"Going back to maybe a more positive"},{"startTime":1174.01,"endTime":1175.479,"body":"note, which is the success stories"},{"startTime":1175.48,"endTime":1177.639,"body":"that you talk about in your book."},{"startTime":1177.64,"endTime":1179.829,"body":"And a lot of focus"},{"startTime":1179.83,"endTime":1181.809,"body":"is on the experimental side"},{"startTime":1181.81,"endTime":1182.81,"body":"so that"},{"startTime":1183.73,"endTime":1184.73,"body":"no one"},{"startTime":1185.71,"endTime":1186.699,"body":"has the blueprint."},{"startTime":1186.7,"endTime":1188.979,"body":"So there's a lot of experimenting"},{"startTime":1188.98,"endTime":1190.089,"body":"but a lot of goodwill."},{"startTime":1190.09,"endTime":1192.309,"body":"So once that bargain"},{"startTime":1192.31,"endTime":1194.619,"body":"is in place, there's goodwill"},{"startTime":1194.62,"endTime":1196.569,"body":"and there's experimentation going"},{"startTime":1196.57,"endTime":1199.479,"body":"on and adjustments are being made."},{"startTime":1199.48,"endTime":1201.309,"body":"Now, that contrast quite a bit"},{"startTime":1201.31,"endTime":1203.199,"body":"with the aid regime that"},{"startTime":1203.2,"endTime":1204.999,"body":"we currently have and not only aid,"},{"startTime":1205.0,"endTime":1206.144,"body":"also lending conndition"},{"startTime":1207.61,"endTime":1210.039,"body":"and so forth, which are usually tied"},{"startTime":1210.04,"endTime":1211.869,"body":"to what you referred to as the"},{"startTime":1211.87,"endTime":1214.089,"body":"list of silver bullets,"},{"startTime":1214.09,"endTime":1215.949,"body":"which of course, no solution"},{"startTime":1215.95,"endTime":1217.929,"body":"fits, fits all."},{"startTime":1217.93,"endTime":1219.159,"body":"So that's problematic."},{"startTime":1219.16,"endTime":1221.08,"body":"And these countries that you"},{"startTime":1222.19,"endTime":1223.959,"body":"referred to as success stories that"},{"startTime":1223.96,"endTime":1225.849,"body":"all have a gradual experimental"},{"startTime":1225.85,"endTime":1226.959,"body":"approach."},{"startTime":1226.96,"endTime":1228.309,"body":"How did the two go together?"},{"startTime":1228.31,"endTime":1230.229,"body":"What needs to change in"},{"startTime":1230.23,"endTime":1232.359,"body":"aid and also properly"},{"startTime":1232.36,"endTime":1234.399,"body":"international borrowing to support"},{"startTime":1234.4,"endTime":1235.599,"body":"such approaches?"},{"startTime":1235.6,"endTime":1236.979,"body":"So, yeah."},{"startTime":1239.43,"endTime":1241.389,"body":"When a country general"},{"startTime":1241.39,"endTime":1243.089,"body":"is trying to embark on on"},{"startTime":1243.09,"endTime":1244.889,"body":"development. And, you know, we"},{"startTime":1244.89,"endTime":1246.299,"body":"shouldn't just take it for granted"},{"startTime":1246.3,"endTime":1248.129,"body":"that it's loose words, but"},{"startTime":1248.13,"endTime":1250.139,"body":"if we do observe them, as"},{"startTime":1250.14,"endTime":1251.999,"body":"you're suggesting, you"},{"startTime":1252.0,"endTime":1254.009,"body":"know, they're trying they're really"},{"startTime":1254.01,"endTime":1256.229,"body":"focussed on on on on development"},{"startTime":1256.23,"endTime":1258.599,"body":"and on growing their economies."},{"startTime":1258.6,"endTime":1259.949,"body":"When they make errors, they're"},{"startTime":1259.95,"endTime":1261.989,"body":"willing to adjust and so on."},{"startTime":1261.99,"endTime":1263.279,"body":"You know, we should learn to trust"},{"startTime":1263.28,"endTime":1264.449,"body":"them that they want to do this."},{"startTime":1264.45,"endTime":1266.219,"body":"I mean, we can help them as well."},{"startTime":1266.22,"endTime":1267.599,"body":"You know, there's some great examples"},{"startTime":1267.6,"endTime":1269.789,"body":"in Indonesia"},{"startTime":1269.79,"endTime":1271.349,"body":"throughout, actually, but definitely"},{"startTime":1271.35,"endTime":1274.019,"body":"the 1980s and beyond."},{"startTime":1274.02,"endTime":1276.389,"body":"That international"},{"startTime":1276.39,"endTime":1278.219,"body":"agencies played a very"},{"startTime":1278.22,"endTime":1280.259,"body":"useful role when the local"},{"startTime":1280.26,"endTime":1282.269,"body":"political economy couldn't quite"},{"startTime":1282.27,"endTime":1283.529,"body":"do the adjustments in the macro"},{"startTime":1283.53,"endTime":1285.419,"body":"economy, to actually, let's"},{"startTime":1285.42,"endTime":1287.969,"body":"bring in the IMF and actually"},{"startTime":1287.97,"endTime":1290.159,"body":"played this kind of hard line"},{"startTime":1291.48,"endTime":1293.759,"body":"role that politically was all,"},{"startTime":1293.76,"endTime":1295.709,"body":"you know, lots of objections to it,"},{"startTime":1295.71,"endTime":1297.599,"body":"but actually was a clever use of"},{"startTime":1297.6,"endTime":1299.429,"body":"the IMF to to bring in"},{"startTime":1299.43,"endTime":1301.289,"body":"external mechanism if"},{"startTime":1301.29,"endTime":1302.669,"body":"you're internal mechanisms of"},{"startTime":1302.67,"endTime":1303.989,"body":"correction don't don't work."},{"startTime":1303.99,"endTime":1305.489,"body":"So I think Indonesia played that"},{"startTime":1305.49,"endTime":1307.769,"body":"game game very well."},{"startTime":1307.77,"endTime":1310.289,"body":"So you so you shouldn't just imagine"},{"startTime":1310.29,"endTime":1312.749,"body":"this kind of really good bureaucracy"},{"startTime":1312.75,"endTime":1314.879,"body":"in political economy like we imagine"},{"startTime":1314.88,"endTime":1316.529,"body":"sometimes of China that they can do"},{"startTime":1316.53,"endTime":1317.53,"body":"it internally, their systems."},{"startTime":1317.97,"endTime":1319.469,"body":"you know, you you need to use all"},{"startTime":1319.47,"endTime":1321.059,"body":"your ways of doing it."},{"startTime":1321.06,"endTime":1323.539,"body":"We know, of course, in in if"},{"startTime":1323.54,"endTime":1325.379,"body":"if democracy is the way to bring"},{"startTime":1325.38,"endTime":1327.689,"body":"stability in your in your context"},{"startTime":1327.69,"endTime":1329.819,"body":"like it's happened in Ghana."},{"startTime":1329.82,"endTime":1331.439,"body":"There are repeated elections,"},{"startTime":1331.44,"endTime":1333.119,"body":"presidential elections have allowed"},{"startTime":1333.12,"endTime":1334.289,"body":"us to also have some of these"},{"startTime":1334.29,"endTime":1336.299,"body":"corrections, where I"},{"startTime":1336.3,"endTime":1337.829,"body":"think definitely the previous"},{"startTime":1337.83,"endTime":1339.839,"body":"government was essentially"},{"startTime":1339.84,"endTime":1341.399,"body":"after also mismanagement of the"},{"startTime":1341.4,"endTime":1343.439,"body":"economy also kicked"},{"startTime":1343.44,"endTime":1345.419,"body":"out and it provides another way of"},{"startTime":1345.42,"endTime":1346.709,"body":"correction. So the learning and"},{"startTime":1346.71,"endTime":1348.179,"body":"correction can come in all kinds of"},{"startTime":1348.18,"endTime":1348.989,"body":"ways."},{"startTime":1348.99,"endTime":1350.729,"body":"It's really important."},{"startTime":1350.73,"endTime":1352.169,"body":"But once we know that the countries"},{"startTime":1352.17,"endTime":1353.489,"body":"are doing this, we should be willing"},{"startTime":1353.49,"endTime":1355.559,"body":"to support it and we should actually"},{"startTime":1355.56,"endTime":1357.419,"body":"providing substantial"},{"startTime":1357.42,"endTime":1358.409,"body":"finance to it."},{"startTime":1358.41,"endTime":1360.389,"body":"Now there's the other side to it."},{"startTime":1360.39,"endTime":1362.339,"body":"If countries don't really show any"},{"startTime":1362.34,"endTime":1363.719,"body":"signs of wanting to do development"},{"startTime":1363.72,"endTime":1364.979,"body":"and growth."},{"startTime":1364.98,"endTime":1367.529,"body":"My view is that actually aids"},{"startTime":1367.53,"endTime":1369.809,"body":"can at best"},{"startTime":1369.81,"endTime":1371.849,"body":"just be not doing much development,"},{"startTime":1371.85,"endTime":1373.739,"body":"it could be a bit of humanitarian do"},{"startTime":1373.74,"endTime":1374.74,"body":"good stuff,"},{"startTime":1376.44,"endTime":1378.089,"body":"but at worst is actually embedding"},{"startTime":1378.09,"endTime":1380.189,"body":"the elites in their own positions."},{"startTime":1381.3,"endTime":1383.519,"body":"I don't like the fact that"},{"startTime":1383.52,"endTime":1384.899,"body":"either, you know, the concessional"},{"startTime":1384.9,"endTime":1386.729,"body":"finance of the World Bank in the"},{"startTime":1386.73,"endTime":1389.729,"body":"periods of a few years before"},{"startTime":1389.73,"endTime":1390.689,"body":"call for it."},{"startTime":1390.69,"endTime":1392.549,"body":"I think the top three countries that"},{"startTime":1392.55,"endTime":1394.709,"body":"got IDA loans in terms of volume"},{"startTime":1394.71,"endTime":1397.529,"body":"was Pakistan, the DRC and Nigeria,"},{"startTime":1397.53,"endTime":1398.939,"body":"three countries that actually were"},{"startTime":1398.94,"endTime":1400.109,"body":"really trying to grow their"},{"startTime":1400.11,"endTime":1401.969,"body":"economies and where really"},{"startTime":1401.97,"endTime":1404.279,"body":"needs of international finance."},{"startTime":1404.28,"endTime":1406.909,"body":"Countries like Ethiopia, Rwanda,"},{"startTime":1406.91,"endTime":1408.659,"body":"I think Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire,"},{"startTime":1408.66,"endTime":1410.519,"body":"as far as I remember, I hope you"},{"startTime":1410.52,"endTime":1412.109,"body":"remember as well. But all four of"},{"startTime":1412.11,"endTime":1413.189,"body":"them had to go to international"},{"startTime":1413.19,"endTime":1414.479,"body":"capital markets to raise more"},{"startTime":1414.48,"endTime":1415.259,"body":"capital."},{"startTime":1415.26,"endTime":1416.85,"body":"So we ended up spending"},{"startTime":1418.11,"endTime":1419.969,"body":"a lot of our concessional finances"},{"startTime":1419.97,"endTime":1421.949,"body":"in countries that argue we're not"},{"startTime":1421.95,"endTime":1423.479,"body":"going to use it very well."},{"startTime":1423.48,"endTime":1425.519,"body":"Pakistan, I think by then"},{"startTime":1425.52,"endTime":1427.769,"body":"was in its 18th IMF programme."},{"startTime":1427.77,"endTime":1429.172,"body":"I think all 18 failed."},{"startTime":1431.1,"endTime":1432.899,"body":"The while that countries that"},{"startTime":1432.9,"endTime":1433.889,"body":"actually were trying to do"},{"startTime":1433.89,"endTime":1435.299,"body":"something, they couldn't get any"},{"startTime":1435.3,"endTime":1436.109,"body":"access to finance."},{"startTime":1436.11,"endTime":1437.309,"body":"So that's definitely something that"},{"startTime":1437.31,"endTime":1439.349,"body":"should change, is actually be"},{"startTime":1439.35,"endTime":1440.879,"body":"willing to be more selective and"},{"startTime":1440.88,"endTime":1442.949,"body":"actually getting money, money"},{"startTime":1442.95,"endTime":1444.989,"body":"in a very trust trusting"},{"startTime":1444.99,"endTime":1446.849,"body":"way to, to follow"},{"startTime":1446.85,"endTime":1448.049,"body":"countries that actually are trying"},{"startTime":1448.05,"endTime":1449.609,"body":"to do something with much less"},{"startTime":1449.61,"endTime":1450.65,"body":"restrictions. And so."},{"startTime":1451.8,"endTime":1452.939,"body":"Countries where there is no"},{"startTime":1452.94,"endTime":1454.409,"body":"development bargain, where the"},{"startTime":1454.41,"endTime":1455.789,"body":"elites are clearly not interested in"},{"startTime":1455.79,"endTime":1456.989,"body":"growth and development, there's no"},{"startTime":1456.99,"endTime":1458.999,"body":"amount of conditionality or rules"},{"startTime":1459.0,"endTime":1461.069,"body":"or whatever that can do it."},{"startTime":1461.07,"endTime":1462.569,"body":"And then people saying, Oh, but at"},{"startTime":1462.57,"endTime":1464.549,"body":"least we are now spending"},{"startTime":1464.55,"endTime":1465.689,"body":"it, as you were referring to, as"},{"startTime":1465.69,"endTime":1466.499,"body":"some silver bullets."},{"startTime":1466.5,"endTime":1468.539,"body":"We got to spend all we only spend"},{"startTime":1468.54,"endTime":1470.419,"body":"it on on education or we"},{"startTime":1470.42,"endTime":1471.989,"body":"going to do results based finders"},{"startTime":1471.99,"endTime":1472.919,"body":"and so on."},{"startTime":1472.92,"endTime":1474.299,"body":"You know, this is okay, but we"},{"startTime":1474.3,"endTime":1476.789,"body":"should just have no illusions"},{"startTime":1476.79,"endTime":1478.799,"body":"that it's not more than,"},{"startTime":1478.8,"endTime":1480.989,"body":"you know, doing something good"},{"startTime":1480.99,"endTime":1483.029,"body":"at work and that"},{"startTime":1483.03,"endTime":1485.009,"body":"it may actually actually"},{"startTime":1485.01,"endTime":1487.009,"body":"make things potentially even"},{"startTime":1487.01,"endTime":1488.759,"body":"a little bit worse because it and"},{"startTime":1488.76,"endTime":1490.859,"body":"that's elites. My example"},{"startTime":1490.86,"endTime":1492.689,"body":"is always health spending in"},{"startTime":1492.69,"endTime":1493.979,"body":"Nigeria. You know, the government"},{"startTime":1493.98,"endTime":1495.45,"body":"spends very little on health."},{"startTime":1496.95,"endTime":1498.869,"body":"In fact, I think"},{"startTime":1500.22,"endTime":1501.719,"body":"it may still be the case, but"},{"startTime":1501.72,"endTime":1502.919,"body":"definitely when I last looked at the"},{"startTime":1502.92,"endTime":1504.869,"body":"numbers as a share of"},{"startTime":1504.87,"endTime":1506.829,"body":"government expenditure, Nigeria"},{"startTime":1506.83,"endTime":1508.799,"body":"spends the lowest share"},{"startTime":1508.8,"endTime":1510.659,"body":"of its budgets on health"},{"startTime":1510.66,"endTime":1512.489,"body":"than any other country, I think"},{"startTime":1512.49,"endTime":1513.49,"body":"in the world, actually."},{"startTime":1515.1,"endTime":1516.269,"body":"Doesn't mean that we should be"},{"startTime":1516.27,"endTime":1517.739,"body":"spending on health in Nigeria."},{"startTime":1517.74,"endTime":1519.359,"body":"You know, it's not a wealthy"},{"startTime":1519.36,"endTime":1521.099,"body":"country, but it has oil that it uses"},{"startTime":1521.1,"endTime":1522.269,"body":"in all kinds of ways."},{"startTime":1523.71,"endTime":1524.819,"body":"Is that the way to do it?"},{"startTime":1524.82,"endTime":1526.799,"body":"And so that's that's"},{"startTime":1526.8,"endTime":1528.299,"body":"my concern. So where we need to"},{"startTime":1528.3,"endTime":1529.739,"body":"change is that, you know, there's no"},{"startTime":1529.74,"endTime":1532.559,"body":"amount of targeted health spending"},{"startTime":1532.56,"endTime":1534.539,"body":"that doesn't give some excuse"},{"startTime":1534.54,"endTime":1536.399,"body":"in Nigeria not to spend"},{"startTime":1536.4,"endTime":1537.539,"body":"in health. Now, there's ways of"},{"startTime":1537.54,"endTime":1539.369,"body":"doing it, and people have been"},{"startTime":1539.37,"endTime":1541.379,"body":"thinking more and more subtly"},{"startTime":1541.38,"endTime":1543.419,"body":"about it. But we definitely"},{"startTime":1543.42,"endTime":1545.219,"body":"need to start from the principle."},{"startTime":1545.22,"endTime":1546.22,"body":"You know,"},{"startTime":1547.17,"endTime":1549.209,"body":"if they do if"},{"startTime":1549.21,"endTime":1549.989,"body":"they're if they have really"},{"startTime":1549.99,"endTime":1551.309,"body":"committed to growth and development,"},{"startTime":1551.31,"endTime":1553.319,"body":"just trust them more, do more and"},{"startTime":1553.32,"endTime":1555.239,"body":"do far fewer conditions."},{"startTime":1555.24,"endTime":1556.799,"body":"But if it is really a sense that"},{"startTime":1556.8,"endTime":1558.419,"body":"they're not interested at all in it,"},{"startTime":1558.42,"endTime":1560.099,"body":"just be so much more careful and"},{"startTime":1560.1,"endTime":1562.139,"body":"probably reduce the volumes and"},{"startTime":1562.14,"endTime":1563.14,"body":"be much more careful."},{"startTime":1565.04,"endTime":1566.04,"body":"That sounds great."},{"startTime":1567.35,"endTime":1569.299,"body":"I think we're almost"},{"startTime":1569.3,"endTime":1570.439,"body":"out of time."},{"startTime":1570.44,"endTime":1572.299,"body":"But I wanted to finish with"},{"startTime":1572.3,"endTime":1574.729,"body":"maybe a reflection on your own"},{"startTime":1574.73,"endTime":1576.589,"body":"career because you"},{"startTime":1576.59,"endTime":1578.089,"body":"have seen both worlds, right?"},{"startTime":1578.09,"endTime":1579.529,"body":"The academic world in which of"},{"startTime":1579.53,"endTime":1581.959,"body":"course, you very well settled"},{"startTime":1581.96,"endTime":1583.249,"body":"as a professor at Oxford."},{"startTime":1583.25,"endTime":1585.169,"body":"But then of course, also the world"},{"startTime":1585.17,"endTime":1587.599,"body":"of policymaking,"},{"startTime":1587.6,"endTime":1590.029,"body":"as a civil servant."},{"startTime":1590.03,"endTime":1591.859,"body":"And you've worked in that"},{"startTime":1591.86,"endTime":1593.779,"body":"role very successfully as well,"},{"startTime":1593.78,"endTime":1595.669,"body":"for a considerable amount"},{"startTime":1595.67,"endTime":1596.989,"body":"of time."},{"startTime":1596.99,"endTime":1598.849,"body":"So what do you think academia"},{"startTime":1598.85,"endTime":1600.259,"body":"can bring to the table?"},{"startTime":1600.26,"endTime":1602.749,"body":"So what's the role academics play"},{"startTime":1602.75,"endTime":1604.819,"body":"and what's the role civil servants"},{"startTime":1604.82,"endTime":1606.739,"body":"play? And where where do the two"},{"startTime":1606.74,"endTime":1608.389,"body":"sides come together?"},{"startTime":1608.39,"endTime":1610.099,"body":"Well, I mean, look, I think I've"},{"startTime":1610.1,"endTime":1612.529,"body":"just been been lucky that"},{"startTime":1612.53,"endTime":1614.809,"body":"in 2011 that's"},{"startTime":1614.81,"endTime":1616.729,"body":"some people in"},{"startTime":1616.73,"endTime":1618.559,"body":"DFID decided to take"},{"startTime":1618.56,"endTime":1620.089,"body":"a bet on me somehow."},{"startTime":1622.42,"endTime":1625.029,"body":"I was definitely an unknown quantity"},{"startTime":1625.03,"endTime":1626.289,"body":"for them."},{"startTime":1626.29,"endTime":1628.389,"body":"But, you know,"},{"startTime":1628.39,"endTime":1630.489,"body":"just as many other academics"},{"startTime":1630.49,"endTime":1632.349,"body":"in this preceding two decades, I"},{"startTime":1632.35,"endTime":1634.239,"body":"was always very concerned, trying"},{"startTime":1634.24,"endTime":1636.129,"body":"to think through, you know, how"},{"startTime":1636.13,"endTime":1638.349,"body":"can I make my research"},{"startTime":1638.35,"endTime":1640.089,"body":"at least to talk to real problems"},{"startTime":1640.09,"endTime":1642.009,"body":"and possibly relevant and"},{"startTime":1642.01,"endTime":1643.569,"body":"useful?"},{"startTime":1643.57,"endTime":1644.57,"body":"I think"},{"startTime":1646.27,"endTime":1647.829,"body":"the one thing I definitely learnt"},{"startTime":1647.83,"endTime":1649.329,"body":"being a civil servant is that"},{"startTime":1649.33,"endTime":1651.819,"body":"academics don't understand very well"},{"startTime":1651.82,"endTime":1654.339,"body":"how decision making takes place."},{"startTime":1654.34,"endTime":1655.34,"body":"And,"},{"startTime":1656.32,"endTime":1658.149,"body":"you know, we we get so"},{"startTime":1658.15,"endTime":1659.709,"body":"obsessed sometimes as academics"},{"startTime":1659.71,"endTime":1661.179,"body":"which have topic we work on and the"},{"startTime":1661.18,"endTime":1662.109,"body":"importance of it."},{"startTime":1662.11,"endTime":1664.779,"body":"And, and we, we"},{"startTime":1664.78,"endTime":1666.279,"body":"don't quite understand"},{"startTime":1668.11,"endTime":1670.749,"body":"how difficult sometimes"},{"startTime":1670.75,"endTime":1672.969,"body":"decision making can be, but also"},{"startTime":1672.97,"endTime":1675.159,"body":"how few entry points there are."},{"startTime":1675.16,"endTime":1677.439,"body":"And I'm at least"},{"startTime":1677.44,"endTime":1678.94,"body":"in an environment"},{"startTime":1680.26,"endTime":1682.989,"body":"where, you know, people say study"},{"startTime":1682.99,"endTime":1684.639,"body":"political economy or politics."},{"startTime":1684.64,"endTime":1686.469,"body":"I'm always quite struck by"},{"startTime":1686.47,"endTime":1688.449,"body":"how poor the understanding"},{"startTime":1688.45,"endTime":1690.639,"body":"of the politics of"},{"startTime":1690.64,"endTime":1692.589,"body":"civil service, of"},{"startTime":1692.59,"endTime":1694.539,"body":"governments, actually is by"},{"startTime":1694.54,"endTime":1696.309,"body":"some of the people who study it and"},{"startTime":1696.31,"endTime":1698.109,"body":"want to influence, for example, an"},{"startTime":1698.11,"endTime":1700.239,"body":"FCDO or a DFID without"},{"startTime":1700.24,"endTime":1701.859,"body":"actually understanding the political"},{"startTime":1701.86,"endTime":1703.359,"body":"economy of these organisations."},{"startTime":1703.36,"endTime":1705.669,"body":"So my minimal advice would always be"},{"startTime":1705.67,"endTime":1707.529,"body":"is that academics should try"},{"startTime":1707.53,"endTime":1709.119,"body":"to understand much more"},{"startTime":1710.38,"endTime":1712.089,"body":"how that world of decision making"},{"startTime":1712.09,"endTime":1714.159,"body":"works and not just imagine"},{"startTime":1714.16,"endTime":1715.329,"body":"that what they do is something"},{"startTime":1715.33,"endTime":1716.769,"body":"really important and they should at"},{"startTime":1716.77,"endTime":1718.629,"body":"all costs make sure that they listen"},{"startTime":1718.63,"endTime":1719.769,"body":"to it."},{"startTime":1719.77,"endTime":1721.689,"body":"The the other path as"},{"startTime":1721.69,"endTime":1723.13,"body":"a civil servant is."},{"startTime":1725.59,"endTime":1727.449,"body":"You know, I think there are more"},{"startTime":1727.45,"endTime":1729.369,"body":"there should be more academics that"},{"startTime":1729.37,"endTime":1730.599,"body":"actually are inside the civil"},{"startTime":1730.6,"endTime":1731.859,"body":"service."},{"startTime":1731.86,"endTime":1733.569,"body":"One thing I learnt almost from the"},{"startTime":1733.57,"endTime":1734.949,"body":"one in the Civil Service that as"},{"startTime":1734.95,"endTime":1737.199,"body":"long as I was outside, fundamentally"},{"startTime":1737.2,"endTime":1739.059,"body":"they didn't really trust me"},{"startTime":1739.06,"endTime":1740.859,"body":"and once I'm inside, they totally"},{"startTime":1740.86,"endTime":1742.149,"body":"trusted me."},{"startTime":1742.15,"endTime":1743.739,"body":"And there is something there that's"},{"startTime":1743.74,"endTime":1745.839,"body":"that that that's"},{"startTime":1745.84,"endTime":1747.699,"body":"I hope that I and"},{"startTime":1747.7,"endTime":1749.859,"body":"some other people also in DFID"},{"startTime":1749.86,"endTime":1751.084,"body":"at the time and now in FCDO"},{"startTime":1752.17,"endTime":1754.179,"body":"played that role of connecting"},{"startTime":1754.18,"endTime":1756.099,"body":"a bit more that worlds, you know,"},{"startTime":1756.1,"endTime":1757.719,"body":"and just actually find an entry"},{"startTime":1757.72,"endTime":1759.849,"body":"point because it is the case"},{"startTime":1759.85,"endTime":1761.109,"body":"in this kind of cutthroat"},{"startTime":1762.43,"endTime":1764.319,"body":"decision making process,"},{"startTime":1764.32,"endTime":1765.939,"body":"very much hierarchical up to"},{"startTime":1765.94,"endTime":1768.039,"body":"ministers and whatever"},{"startTime":1768.04,"endTime":1770.289,"body":"the here and now matter so much"},{"startTime":1770.29,"endTime":1771.819,"body":"and academics are not usually that"},{"startTime":1771.82,"endTime":1773.799,"body":"helpful because they"},{"startTime":1773.8,"endTime":1775.359,"body":"usually want to make things more"},{"startTime":1775.36,"endTime":1776.419,"body":"complex."},{"startTime":1776.42,"endTime":1778.509,"body":"They they they they they"},{"startTime":1778.51,"endTime":1780.009,"body":"don't have enough of an appreciation"},{"startTime":1780.01,"endTime":1781.569,"body":"of, of, of that decision making"},{"startTime":1781.57,"endTime":1782.57,"body":"process."},{"startTime":1783.22,"endTime":1784.719,"body":"Having said that, having people"},{"startTime":1784.72,"endTime":1786.369,"body":"insights that bring a bit of a"},{"startTime":1786.37,"endTime":1788.319,"body":"longer term perspective, a bit"},{"startTime":1788.32,"endTime":1790.089,"body":"of a broader perspective around"},{"startTime":1790.09,"endTime":1791.679,"body":"knowledge about what's going on in"},{"startTime":1791.68,"endTime":1792.669,"body":"places."},{"startTime":1792.67,"endTime":1794.049,"body":"It's actually really helpful for the"},{"startTime":1794.05,"endTime":1795.909,"body":"civil servants to make"},{"startTime":1795.91,"endTime":1797.409,"body":"sure that their narrow thing that"},{"startTime":1797.41,"endTime":1799.449,"body":"they are pushed to do that they keep"},{"startTime":1799.45,"endTime":1801.279,"body":"it a bit better in the"},{"startTime":1801.28,"endTime":1802.719,"body":"context of the longer term."},{"startTime":1802.72,"endTime":1804.549,"body":"And that's the the main thing that"},{"startTime":1804.55,"endTime":1806.049,"body":"is always hard for civil servants is"},{"startTime":1806.05,"endTime":1808.299,"body":"keep a bit of that long term vision,"},{"startTime":1808.3,"endTime":1810.609,"body":"but also longer term understanding,"},{"startTime":1810.61,"endTime":1812.289,"body":"historical understanding, long term"},{"startTime":1812.29,"endTime":1813.809,"body":"trajectories understanding you."},{"startTime":1813.81,"endTime":1815.889,"body":"And so yeah, my minimum, my,"},{"startTime":1815.89,"endTime":1817.929,"body":"my, my main point is that, you know,"},{"startTime":1817.93,"endTime":1819.249,"body":"should get some more academics"},{"startTime":1819.25,"endTime":1821.199,"body":"inside the civil servants that"},{"startTime":1821.2,"endTime":1822.639,"body":"actually bring a bit more of that"},{"startTime":1822.64,"endTime":1824.649,"body":"because we need more people"},{"startTime":1824.65,"endTime":1826.449,"body":"there that can help broker that link"},{"startTime":1826.45,"endTime":1828.549,"body":"because these are"},{"startTime":1828.55,"endTime":1830.019,"body":"surprisingly separate ones."},{"startTime":1831.13,"endTime":1832.629,"body":"I like that answer."},{"startTime":1832.63,"endTime":1833.739,"body":"Thank you so much,Stefan."},{"startTime":1833.74,"endTime":1835.659,"body":"That has been a fascinating"},{"startTime":1835.66,"endTime":1837.219,"body":"conversation. Thanks so much for"},{"startTime":1837.22,"endTime":1838.22,"body":"joining me today."}]}