The Amazon Strategist Show
Why Your ROAS Is Wrong in 2026: Amazon LTV Strategy, Profitability & AI Myths
Feb 20, 2026
Season 4
Episode 26
The Amazon Strategist Show
Most Amazon sellers optimize for the first sale.
That might be costing you serious growth.
In Part 2, John Cavendish sits down with Tom Baker, CEO of Fordebaker, to break down how Amazon sellers should think about:
• Lifetime value (LTV)
• Recurring revenue
• Lowering ROAS targets to scale faster
• Launch profitability expectations
• AI, Rufus, and algorithm myths
As competition increases and CPCs continue rising, optimizing for first-purchase profitability may be limiting your growth.
Tom explains why mature brands should shift from:
“Is this ad profitable today?”
to
“How much revenue does this customer generate over 12 months?”
In This Episode
• Why most Amazon brands don’t track lifetime value properly
• How to calculate 12-month LTV by ASIN
• When to lower your ROAS target intentionally
• Why recurring revenue is the most profitable revenue
• Cash flow risks to watch when scaling acquisition
• Launch strategy: focus on velocity vs profit
• When profitability should matter at launch
• Why chasing Amazon AI algorithm hacks is a mistake
• Why Rufus doesn’t change best practices
If your product is replenishable, this strategy can unlock significantly faster scaling.
But only if you understand the data.
Connect with Tom and Fordebaker:
Website: https://fordebaker.com
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-baker-amazon-agency
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Connect with John Cavendish
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jgcuk
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thejohncavendish
LinkedIn: https://hk.linkedin.com/in/thejohncavendish
Know More About Seller Candy
Website: https://www.sellercandy.com
Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/SellerCandyPro
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sellercandyamz
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sellercandy/
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