Unleashing the Storm: Hurricanes in the Age of Climate Change

Welcome to Color Me Green, a podcast focused on making the world a greener place. Every week we are going to be discussing topics about sustainability, climate change, and more. The goal for this show is for you to learn something new and hopefully take something away and implement it into your daily routine. Even just the simple act of sharing this podcast with your friends and family, is an act of making a difference.

Today's episode we are discussing the affect of climate change on hurricanes and their frequency and formation. I eventually want to do an episode on climate change in general, but figured this would be a fun topic to learn about due to Hurricane Hilary recently hitting California. 

Transcript

Welcome to Color Me Green, a podcast focused on making the world a greener place.

So as you all know… well by the time this is airing, everything will be over and done, but as of writing this script and recording…. there’s a hurricane… or tropical storm headed for California for the first time in like 80 years! I’m the biggest baby when it comes to storms. Like rain I can do. LOVE the rain. But the second you throw a little wind and lightening and maybe even a little thunder in there… Im done. Anxiety through the roof. Plus it’s just me and my cat Nyx, all alone so that’s not helping at all.

Friday, totally fine. Sunny hot day. I did a bachelorette shoot and sweat my butt off. Went home and chilled.Until like 7pm or whatever and then it got really dark out and started raining and getting windy and I was just done for the day. It didnt last that long, but when it’s starting and just going at it, you never know how long it’s sticking around for. Saturday, I knew it was getting closer, so I showered and got that out of the way, did the dishes, cleaned the house and went to the store to get some food and snacks to keep me occupied. I keep the weather channel radar map up on my laptop or phone at all times during storms and all day it kept saying it was going to rain and then it didnt until later.

Sunday was for sure the worst day. It was raining the I’ve never seen it rain before, especially in the desert, and it was really windy. I think gusts up to 50 mph or so. It’s said that the Palm Springs area (where I live) got more than a years worth of rain in one day… which is crazy because I definitely would think that would be more than just a years worth out here. But yeah then there was Monday which was nothing special. Just a bunch of flooding in certain areas. My town wasnt bad, just a few road closers but nothing crazy like other areas in the valley.

So with all of that being said, I think you might be able to guess what we’re going to discuss today. Also, you probably read the title of this episode before clicking on it so that’s also a pretty good indicator of the topic…

We’re discussing hurricanes and how climate change and global warming effects them.

Let’s start off with a brief explanation of hurricanes, what they are and how they form.

A hurricane is a type of storm called a tropical cyclone, which forms over tropical or subtropical waters.

A tropical cyclone is a swirling system of low pressure in the weather that consists of organized thunderstorms but lacks fronts, which are boundaries between different density air masses. If such a cyclone has maximum sustained surface winds below 39 mph, its categorized as a tropical depression. If the maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph or higher, it’s designated as a tropical storm.

Once a storms maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, its classified as a hurricane. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates hurricanes on a scale of 1-5, based on their maximum sustained winds. A higher category indicates a greater potential for causing property damage.

Hurricanes typically form in regions like the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and sometimes the eastern North Pacific Ocean or central North Pacific Ocean. These storms are given names from a rotating list thats updated and maintained by the World Meteorological Organization.

The “Hurricane Season” spans from June 1st to November 30th, although hurricanes can and do occur outside of this timeframe. The National Hurricane Center of NOAA, forecasts and monitors these large storm systems, which average around 12 occurrences each year within the Atlantic.

There are 6 commonly accepted factors that contribute to the formation of hurricanes:

1. The initial requirement is that the oceans surface temperatures must exceed 79 degrees F. If temperatures are lower, hurricanes either wont form, or will quickly weaken upon encountering cooler water. The tropical east Pacific and tropical Atlantic consistently surpass this temperature threshold.
   1. For an example as why California doesnt get hurricanes often, the average annual water temp on the coast of LA is 62 degrees F. The max it usually gets is 70 in about August. So this is probably also why Hilary declined, not only because it reached the land, but because the water temps got cooler the more north it moved. Everyone was saying it might reach a category 4 or 5 and the reason it didnt, was most likely the cooler water temps.
2. The second factor involves the distance from the equator. Earth’s rotation and the Coriolis effect are necessary for hurricane formation. Within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, the Coriolis effect is too weak to support hurricane formation due to its maximum effect at the poles and minimum at the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, it leads to a counterclockwise spin around low pressure systems and in the Southern Hemisphere, a clockwise spin.
3. The third factor pertains to a saturated lapse rate gradient near the storms center of ration. The gradient ensures the maximum release of latent heat. Hurricanes are characterized by their warm core, where heat is released through the condensation of water vapor as it rises within the eye wall. And unstable lapse rate around the eye wall ensures that rising air particles continue to ascend and release water vapor.
4. The fourth and crucial factor is low vertical wind shear, particularly in the upper atmosphere. Vertical wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and altitude. Strong upper level winds disrupt the hurricanes structure by displacing the warm air above the eye and restricting the vertical movement of air particles. Hurricanes cannot form under the influence of strong upper level winds.
5. The fifth factor involves high relative humidity across the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. Dry air in the mid levels slows hurricane development in two ways. First, it leads to the evaporation of water, a cooling process that weakens the warm core structure of the hurricane and restricts vertical convection. Second, mid level dry air can result in a trade wind inversion, similar to sinking air in a high pressure system. This inversion creates a layer of warm and dry air due to sinking and adiabatic warming, inhibiting deep convection and maintaining a stable lapse rate.
6. The sixth factor is the presence of a tropical wave. Many Atlantic hurricanes originate as clusters of thunderstorms off the African coast. These systems transform into mid level waves. When encountering favorable conditions outlines in the first 5 factors, these waves intensify and develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. In the East pacific, hurricanes can form through mid level waves or a meteorological feature known as a monsoonal trough.

"Hurricane Alley," also known as the "Main Development Region," refers to a region in the tropical Atlantic Ocean where a substantial number of hurricanes tend to originate. It encompasses the area between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea. The relevance of Hurricane Alley lies in its historical significance as a prime location for hurricane genesis. It has been an essential factor in shaping the patterns of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.

The concept of Hurricane Alley becomes even more pertinent in the context of changing climate conditions. As sea surface temperatures continue to rise due to global warming, the waters of Hurricane Alley are becoming more conducive to hurricane formation and intensification.

Over the past few decades, there has been growing evidence of shifts in the geographic locations where hurricanes are forming and making landfall. These shifts are primarily attributed to changes in climate conditions, including rising sea surface temperatures, alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns, and the influence of natural climate variability. Such shifts have significant implications for vulnerable coastal regions, as they may lead to altered risk profiles and necessitate changes in disaster preparedness and response strategies.

I have yet to do an episode directly on climate change, so I think I’ll plan for that to come soon, just because there’s so much that is impacted that people don’t realize. I’ll get more into all the effects on global warming in that episode, but long story short, rising amounts of greenhouse gases are preventing heat radiated from the Earths surface from escaping into space as freely as it used to. Most of the excess atmospheric heat is passed back to the ocean. As a result, the upper ocean heat content has increased significantly over the past few decades.

Here is a list of a few recent hurricanes that have been fueled by warm ocean waters due to climate change.

1. Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Harvey was a category 4 hurricane that caused widespread devastation in Texas and Louisiana. It’s extreme rainfall and flooding were worsened by the unusually warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, which provided ample moisture for the storms heavy rainfall.
2. Hurricane Irma in 2017. Irma was one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic, reached a category 5 and affected several Caribbean islands and Florida. Again, fueled by the exceptionally warm water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
3. Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Dorian struck the Bahamas as a category 5 hurricane, causing widespread destruction. The hurricanes intensity was attributed to the warm water of the Atlantic, which allowed it to intensify rapidly.
4. Hurricane Iota in 2020. I dont remember there being a hurricane in 2020, but honestly, that just seems like it makes sense for that to happen. Iota rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane before making landfall into Central America. The unusually warm waters of the Caribbean contributed to its rapid strengthening.

These examples illustrate how warmer ocean temperatures, driven by climate change, can provide he energy needed for hurricanes to form and intensify, leading to more destructive storms.

I also want to include Hurricane Hilary in here because it was a very particular event that doesnt happen often. There was just a perfect combination of every hurricane forming thing that made it possible for that storm to form. Many storms form in the Eastern Pacific, but most move west further into the ocean or into Mexico.

The water was about 3.5 to 5 degrees hotter than normal at the surface and even further down. This helped Hilary gain a wind speed of 75 mph in just 24 hours, intensifying into a category 4 in hardly any time.

Like I mentioned before, most hurricanes in the Pacific, don’t make it to the US. First off because the California coast is cold, even further down into the water. Hurricanes hate that. The dry California atmosphere is also a hurricane killer. Both of these reasons are also why Hilary weakened significantly once it reached the California coast.

The reason it got to California was because there are usually prevailing winds pushing storms from east to west and in this case, that wasnt happening.

How air to the east and a low pressure system to the west combined to move Hilary into California instead of the normal path out into the ocean. Apparently a big hot air mass sitting over the middle of the US blocked the storm from turning. That air mass hasn’t been moving. Scientists believe that especially in the summer, there are more situations where weather patterns get stuck. Some believe this is due to changes in the Arctic because of global warming and others disagree.

And just a side note, apparently it rained so bad because warmer air holds more moisture which leads to more rain fall.

Scientists have been investigating the impact of climate change on global sea-surface temperatures, utilizing historical records dating back to 1880. The data reflects a substantial upsurge in worldwide sea-surface temperatures. Although researchers suspected a connection between climate change and these warmer waters, as I mentioned earlier, not all of them agree.

Ethan Gutmann, a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, devised a method to demonstrate the influence of climate change on hurricanes. Gutmann executed computerized simulations of twenty-two named hurricanes spanning from 2001 to 2013. In these simulations, he manipulated variables like temperature, humidity, wind speed, and direction to replicate anticipated future conditions resulting from climate change. The hurricanes responded by exhibiting heightened rainfall and generally increased wind speeds, yet each hurricane exhibited distinct reactions to the altered climate conditions.

While certain scientists assert that there is ample proof to attribute the recent surge in hurricane frequency and strength to human-induced climate change, other researchers remain uncertain whether climate change is the sole driver.

Given that hurricanes emerge independent of human intervention, scientists acknowledge the potential for other natural factors to influence their formation and intensity, factors unrelated to climate change.

One example would be an El Nino and La Nina event.

Under regular circumstances in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow westward along the equator, carrying warm water from South America towards Asia. As a result, cold water from the depths rises to the surface through a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are contrasting climate patterns that disrupt these typical conditions. Scientists refer to these occurrences as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Both El Niño and La Niña can have global ramifications, affecting weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies. El Niño and La Niña events usually persist for nine to 12 months, although in some cases, they can extend for several years. These events take place every two to seven years on average, but they lack a consistent schedule. Generally, El Niño is more frequent compared to La Niña.

El Niño, which translates to "Little Boy" in Spanish, was first noticed by South American fishermen in the 1600s. They initially termed it El Niño de Navidad due to its tendency to peak around December.

El Niño significantly influences weather patterns. The warmer waters alter the position of the Pacific jet stream, causing it to move southward from its neutral location. Consequently, regions in the northern U.S. and Canada experience drier and warmer conditions than usual. Conversely, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast encounter heightened rainfall and increased flooding.

La Niña, or "Little Girl" in Spanish, is sometimes referred to as El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply "a cold event." La Niña stands in opposition to El Niño. During La Niña episodes, trade winds intensify, pushing more warm water towards Asia. Along the western shores of the Americas, upwelling becomes more pronounced, bringing cold and nutrient-rich water to the surface.

The cold waters in the Pacific associated with La Niña cause the jet stream to shift northward. This often results in drought conditions in the southern U.S. and heavy rainfall and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, the South experiences warmer winter temperatures than usual, while the North sees cooler temperatures. Additionally, La Niña can contribute to a more active hurricane season.

Researchers actually suggest that the most damaging US hurricanes are three times more frequent than 100 years ago, and that proportion of major hurricanes which are category 3 or above, in the Atlantic Ocean has doubled since 1980.

Now back to the climate change based factors such as rising sea levels and storm surges.

Sea-level rise is a significant consequence of global climate change, primarily driven by the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and the expansion of seawater as it warms. According to The Environmental Defense Fund, the average global sea level has already risen by half a foot since 1900, with about 4 of those inches being since 1970. As sea levels rise, the impact of hurricanes becomes more severe due to several interconnected factors:

1. Increased Storm Surge Height: A critical aspect of hurricanes' impact is the storm surge, which refers to the rise in sea level caused by the combination of strong winds and low atmospheric pressure. Rising sea levels provide a higher baseline from which storm surges occur, amplifying their height. This results in larger surges that can inundate coastal areas farther inland, causing more extensive flooding and damage.
2. Extended Inland Inundation: Higher sea levels mean that even minor storm surges can lead to more significant inland inundation. Coastal communities that were historically safe from storm surges may now face flooding during less intense hurricanes due to the increased baseline sea level.
3. Erosion and Coastal Degradation: Sea-level rise contributes to coastal erosion and degradation. This means that even if a hurricane's wind intensity remains the same, the eroded coastline offers less natural protection against storm surges. This can result in faster and more extensive property damage, displacement of communities, and loss of infrastructure.
4. Impact on Vulnerable Areas: Many coastal communities are densely populated and situated in low-lying areas, making them particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of sea-level rise and hurricanes. As sea levels rise, these areas become increasingly exposed to the risks of flooding, leading to greater socioeconomic impacts and challenges in recovery.

These higher sea levels directly contribute to more destructive storm surges in the various ways including:

1. Increased Water Volume: As sea levels rise, the ocean contains more water overall. When a hurricane approaches, the larger volume of water pushed toward the coast during a storm surge exacerbates the flooding and extends the reach of the surge.
2. Elevated Baseline: A higher baseline sea level means that even a moderate storm surge has a greater starting point. This elevates the water level before the surge occurs, leading to higher total water levels during the surge and causing more extensive flooding.
3. Threshold for Overwash: In some cases, sea-level rise can elevate the average water level to a point where it surpasses natural coastal barriers, such as dunes or levees. This enables storm surges to overtop these barriers more easily, resulting in faster and more destructive flooding of coastal areas.

A few instances where areas have been impacted by the affects of rising sea levels and storm surges due to climate change include the following:

1. Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans, USA: The devastating impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 highlighted the vulnerability of New Orleans to storm surges. The city's below-sea-level geography, combined with the loss of protective coastal wetlands due to sea-level rise and human activity, led to catastrophic flooding.
2. Typhoon Haiyan and the Philippines: Typhoon Haiyan (known as Yolanda in the Philippines) in 2013 exhibited the intersection of sea-level rise, storm surges, and climate change impacts. The higher sea level worsened the storm surge's impact, leading to widespread destruction and loss of life.
3. Flooding in Bangladesh: Bangladesh is highly susceptible to both sea-level rise and cyclones. The rising sea level exacerbates the damage caused by cyclone-induced storm surges, leading to significant flooding in coastal areas and threatening millions of people's livelihoods.
4. Maldives and Rising Sea Levels: The low-lying Maldives archipelago is at risk due to rising sea levels and storm surges. Even a relatively weak hurricane can cause substantial damage and displacement due to the combination of higher sea levels and the islands' limited elevation.

Over all, the interaction between sea-level rise, storm surges, and climate change-related impacts on coastal communities is a complex issue. As sea levels continue to rise, the destructive potential of hurricanes' storm surges grows, posing greater risks to coastal populations and infrastructure. Mitigation strategies, adaptive measures, and international cooperation are essential to address these challenges and protect vulnerable communities from the compounded impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.

These extreme weather events pose significant threats to coastal communities, ecosystems, and economies. To address the changing landscape of hurricanes, it's imperative to implement strategies that focus on adaptation, resilience, and disaster preparedness. These strategies aim to minimize the adverse impacts of hurricanes and ensure the safety and well-being of affected populations.

Working locally or even nationally to help our own communities and others is a great place to start!

Even with earthquakes, architects have a code they have to comply with to make sure all structures are able to withstand natural disasters. So it’s important for communities to think of all disaster options when building. For instance, I’m not an architect, but California architects should probably add Hurricane safety codes or whatever to their building check lists. Building resilient infrastructure involves designing and constructing structures that can withstand the impacts of hurricanes, such as strong winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfall. This includes constructing buildings and transportation systems to higher standards, using more durable materials, and implementing innovative engineering techniques.

It’s also very important that communities are aware of potential risks and they are educated on the practices and protocals for any disasters that can come their way. Preparedness measures involve educating communities about hurricane risks, developing early warning systems, and establishing evacuation plans. Communities should have well-defined protocols for emergency responses, including shelters, medical facilities, and supply distribution points.

This brings up a fact that always amuses me every time i think about it. Floridians were all over tiktok letting us Californians know what to do and how to prepare for the hurricane. Which was great, thank you, my fridge is still filled with jars of water because I was afraid the power would go out.(and yes, jars and other glass containers I had in my house because we do not by bottled water in this house). But just like that, I didnt really know what to do in an Earthquake when I moved here from Michigan, and in a Hurricane, there’s chance for tornadoes, another thing that doesnt happen often in California and therefore people out here don’t really know what to do if there is one. So with more natural disasters happening, in unnatural areas, it’s important to know the protocols for everything so you always know what to do… just in case. Hey… I never in a million years would have thought a hurricane would hit the desert… but here we are are.

Investing in both resilient infrastructure and disaster preparedness can lead to long-term economic savings. The costs associated with rebuilding after a hurricane far outweigh the initial expenses of building resilient structures. And preparedness measures reduce loss of life and the social and psychological impacts of disasters.

Another great effort is the Collaboration between governments, businesses, and communities is crucial for successful adaptation. Governments can provide incentives for private entities to invest in resilient infrastructure, while businesses can support disaster response efforts through financial and material contributions.

And of course, it’s also very important to make global efforts to mitigate climate change and reduce its impact on these weather events.

Agreements like the Paris Agreement aim to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. By reducing greenhouse gas emissions, these agreements contribute to slowing down the warming of oceans, which plays a role in intensifying hurricanes.

Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources reduces the emission of greenhouse gases, thus mitigating climate change. This transition also leads to reduced air pollution and a more sustainable energy system.

Healthy ecosystems, such as mangroves, coral reefs, and wetlands, act as natural buffers against storm surges and hurricanes. Efforts to restore and protect these ecosystems contribute to reducing the impacts of extreme weather events.

International organizations and governments provide funding to vulnerable countries to enhance their resilience to climate change. This includes financing for infrastructure upgrades, disaster preparedness initiatives, and capacity building.

Scientific research helps us better understand the relationship between climate change and hurricanes, enabling more accurate predictions and improved disaster preparedness. Technological innovations, such as advanced weather forecasting and early warning systems, enhance our ability to respond effectively to extreme weather events.

Adapting to the changing landscape of hurricanes due to climate change requires a multi-faceted approach that encompasses resilient infrastructure, disaster preparedness, global mitigation efforts, and sustainable practices. By investing in these strategies, we can reduce the impacts of hurricanes on communities and ecosystems while working towards a more sustainable and resilient future.

I want to thank you for listening to today’s episode of Color Me Green. New episodes come out on Wednesdays and hopefully each one has something you can take away and learn from. If you want to request a certain topic to discuss, please feel free to message me on the show’s instagram @colormegreenpodcast linked in the show notes. If you loved today’s episode, please make sure to leave a review and let others know what you think of the show! One of the best ways to help change the world, is to share this episode with a friend and let them also learn what they can do to live more sustainably. Always remember to Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and live green!