{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.416,"endTime":3.236,"body":"As we enter the new year, I"},{"startTime":0.416,"endTime":3.236,"body":"thought it'd be helpful to kind"},{"startTime":3.236,"endTime":6.416,"body":"of take a survey of where the AI"},{"startTime":3.236,"endTime":6.416,"body":"industry is in terms of its"},{"startTime":6.416,"endTime":9.956,"body":"ambitious goal to reach"},{"startTime":6.416,"endTime":9.956,"body":"artificial general intelligence"},{"startTime":9.956,"endTime":14.156,"body":"or super intelligence. After"},{"startTime":9.956,"endTime":14.156,"body":"all, Sam Altman especially has"},{"startTime":14.156,"endTime":18.056,"body":"been promising us AGI or"},{"startTime":14.156,"endTime":18.056,"body":"something like it for about two"},{"startTime":18.056,"endTime":21.68,"body":"or three years now, and it's"},{"startTime":18.056,"endTime":21.68,"body":"2020 26 and we're not any"},{"startTime":21.68,"endTime":24.74,"body":"closer, I think, to super"},{"startTime":21.68,"endTime":24.74,"body":"intelligence. So I want to talk"},{"startTime":24.74,"endTime":28.16,"body":"about why that is. A couple"},{"startTime":24.74,"endTime":28.16,"body":"years ago, I actually put"},{"startTime":28.16,"endTime":31.1,"body":"together a very comprehensive"},{"startTime":28.16,"endTime":31.1,"body":"deep dive, like hour long"},{"startTime":31.1,"endTime":34.04,"body":"YouTube video about all the"},{"startTime":31.1,"endTime":34.04,"body":"different reasons that we're not"},{"startTime":34.04,"endTime":36.68,"body":"going to reach AGI anytime soon"},{"startTime":34.04,"endTime":36.68,"body":"based on our current technology."},{"startTime":36.68,"endTime":38.96,"body":"So I'll drop that in the show"},{"startTime":36.68,"endTime":38.96,"body":"notes. But I just wanted to"},{"startTime":38.96,"endTime":41.3,"body":"revisit some of those things I"},{"startTime":38.96,"endTime":41.3,"body":"talked about then and see where"},{"startTime":41.3,"endTime":44.32,"body":"we are today. Those things"},{"startTime":41.3,"endTime":44.32,"body":"include hallucination problems,"},{"startTime":44.32,"endTime":47.98,"body":"you know, making stuff up, this"},{"startTime":44.32,"endTime":47.98,"body":"lack of common sense. And, like,"},{"startTime":47.98,"endTime":51.28,"body":"what common sense might actually"},{"startTime":47.98,"endTime":51.28,"body":"be, a failure to understand"},{"startTime":51.34,"endTime":54.04,"body":"cause and effect and kind of how"},{"startTime":51.34,"endTime":54.04,"body":"the world works in general."},{"startTime":54.34,"endTime":57.76,"body":"These are all some of the"},{"startTime":54.34,"endTime":57.76,"body":"obstacles that I think are"},{"startTime":57.76,"endTime":60.66,"body":"really important to talk about"},{"startTime":57.76,"endTime":60.66,"body":"as we talk about potentially"},{"startTime":60.66,"endTime":64.2,"body":"creating like human intelligence"},{"startTime":60.66,"endTime":64.2,"body":"in a machine. Before we dive in,"},{"startTime":64.2,"endTime":66.78,"body":"though, I just want to highlight"},{"startTime":64.2,"endTime":66.78,"body":"a couple like really interesting"},{"startTime":66.78,"endTime":71.34,"body":"tidbits. Open, AI seems to be"},{"startTime":66.78,"endTime":71.34,"body":"valued at around $830 billion"},{"startTime":72.24,"endTime":74.76,"body":"keep in mind that normal"},{"startTime":72.24,"endTime":74.76,"body":"software companies typically"},{"startTime":74.76,"endTime":78.78,"body":"trade at like eight or 12 times"},{"startTime":74.76,"endTime":78.78,"body":"their revenue. So with about 20"},{"startTime":78.78,"endTime":82.04,"body":"billion in annual revenue, open,"},{"startTime":78.78,"endTime":82.04,"body":"AI is basically valued at like,"},{"startTime":82.04,"endTime":86.36,"body":"41.5 times its revenue. And"},{"startTime":82.04,"endTime":86.36,"body":"that's a huge markup, and that's"},{"startTime":86.36,"endTime":90.08,"body":"all tied to their promises of"},{"startTime":86.36,"endTime":90.08,"body":"creating super intelligence or"},{"startTime":90.08,"endTime":94.76,"body":"AGI, or, like, disrupting the"},{"startTime":90.08,"endTime":94.76,"body":"entire lifestyle of humanity,"},{"startTime":94.76,"endTime":97.64,"body":"you know? So, so that's why I"},{"startTime":94.76,"endTime":97.64,"body":"think this is so important,"},{"startTime":97.64,"endTime":101.5,"body":"because these are big promises"},{"startTime":97.64,"endTime":101.5,"body":"and they have a big impact on"},{"startTime":101.8,"endTime":105.28,"body":"all of us, essentially, in other"},{"startTime":101.8,"endTime":105.28,"body":"words, this AI bubble is all"},{"startTime":105.28,"endTime":109.54,"body":"about AGI or super intelligence."},{"startTime":105.28,"endTime":109.54,"body":"And sure, these companies are"},{"startTime":109.54,"endTime":114.04,"body":"starting to try to pivot towards"},{"startTime":109.54,"endTime":114.04,"body":"like video creation or creating"},{"startTime":114.04,"endTime":117.64,"body":"digital employees, agentic AI"},{"startTime":114.04,"endTime":117.64,"body":"and all that stuff. But the"},{"startTime":117.64,"endTime":121.14,"body":"valuations, I think, are still"},{"startTime":117.64,"endTime":121.14,"body":"kind of founded upon these big"},{"startTime":121.14,"endTime":124.5,"body":"promises around super"},{"startTime":121.14,"endTime":124.5,"body":"intelligence, honestly, if these"},{"startTime":124.56,"endTime":127.92,"body":"AI labs achieve their goals,"},{"startTime":124.56,"endTime":127.92,"body":"it's going to change the way we"},{"startTime":127.98,"endTime":130.68,"body":"live entirely. And so I think"},{"startTime":127.98,"endTime":130.68,"body":"we're all kind of being pretty"},{"startTime":130.68,"endTime":133.08,"body":"chill about it, right? I mean,"},{"startTime":130.68,"endTime":133.08,"body":"it's like, it's a crazy time to"},{"startTime":133.08,"endTime":136.14,"body":"be facing the idea that"},{"startTime":133.08,"endTime":136.14,"body":"potentially, our our way of"},{"startTime":136.14,"endTime":140.9,"body":"living will be disrupted by AI"},{"startTime":136.14,"endTime":140.9,"body":"and you know, that's on top of"},{"startTime":140.9,"endTime":143.3,"body":"the rise of fascism and all the"},{"startTime":140.9,"endTime":143.3,"body":"other stuff that's going on in"},{"startTime":143.3,"endTime":145.76,"body":"the world. So, yeah, it's a lot."},{"startTime":143.3,"endTime":145.76,"body":"And I just want to, like, I want"},{"startTime":145.76,"endTime":148.52,"body":"to, like, try to ground us a"},{"startTime":145.76,"endTime":148.52,"body":"little bit in the reality of our"},{"startTime":148.52,"endTime":152.36,"body":"current technology so at least"},{"startTime":148.52,"endTime":152.36,"body":"maybe we can relax a little bit."},{"startTime":152.36,"endTime":156.26,"body":"I don't know. And by the way,"},{"startTime":152.36,"endTime":156.26,"body":"isn't it funny how we've all"},{"startTime":156.26,"endTime":159.98,"body":"kind of accepted the idea that"},{"startTime":156.26,"endTime":159.98,"body":"computer scientists are experts"},{"startTime":159.98,"endTime":162.76,"body":"on the topic of human"},{"startTime":159.98,"endTime":162.76,"body":"intelligence, like, what"},{"startTime":162.76,"endTime":166.18,"body":"qualifies a person trained in"},{"startTime":162.76,"endTime":166.18,"body":"writing computer code to opine"},{"startTime":166.18,"endTime":168.76,"body":"on the nature of human"},{"startTime":166.18,"endTime":168.76,"body":"intelligence? Back in the 90s,"},{"startTime":168.76,"endTime":171.7,"body":"when I was an AI researcher and"},{"startTime":168.76,"endTime":171.7,"body":"a computer scientist, I thought"},{"startTime":171.7,"endTime":175.9,"body":"this way too. I felt qualified"},{"startTime":171.7,"endTime":175.9,"body":"to know what intelligence is,"},{"startTime":176.2,"endTime":179.68,"body":"despite having no training in"},{"startTime":176.2,"endTime":179.68,"body":"cognitive science or philosophy,"},{"startTime":180.28,"endTime":182.34,"body":"although I do now have a"},{"startTime":180.28,"endTime":182.34,"body":"master's in philosophy,"},{"startTime":182.34,"endTime":184.86,"body":"cosmology and consciousness."},{"startTime":182.34,"endTime":184.86,"body":"Anyways, I think the reason that"},{"startTime":184.86,"endTime":187.14,"body":"we've all accepted this has"},{"startTime":184.86,"endTime":187.14,"body":"something to do with this long"},{"startTime":187.14,"endTime":190.74,"body":"standing assumption in our"},{"startTime":187.14,"endTime":190.74,"body":"culture that the mind and the"},{"startTime":190.74,"endTime":194.58,"body":"rest of nature, for that matter,"},{"startTime":190.74,"endTime":194.58,"body":"are computable, meaning that"},{"startTime":194.58,"endTime":198.72,"body":"they're just like machines,"},{"startTime":194.58,"endTime":198.72,"body":"basically, but there's no"},{"startTime":198.72,"endTime":201.2,"body":"indication that they actually"},{"startTime":198.72,"endTime":201.2,"body":"are. It's just an assumption."},{"startTime":201.26,"endTime":203.9,"body":"It's just a theory. Okay, let's"},{"startTime":201.26,"endTime":203.9,"body":"look at the state of the AI"},{"startTime":203.9,"endTime":209.6,"body":"industry today. So last year,"},{"startTime":203.9,"endTime":209.6,"body":"the AI industry moved from these"},{"startTime":209.6,"endTime":213.74,"body":"Chad bot interfaces, like Chad"},{"startTime":209.6,"endTime":213.74,"body":"GPT to these reasoning models"},{"startTime":213.74,"endTime":217.28,"body":"where the model is sort of"},{"startTime":213.74,"endTime":217.28,"body":"talking to itself in order to"},{"startTime":217.64,"endTime":221.74,"body":"provide more reliable but also"},{"startTime":217.64,"endTime":221.74,"body":"more elaborate and coherent"},{"startTime":221.86,"endTime":225.4,"body":"responses. The industry also"},{"startTime":221.86,"endTime":225.4,"body":"kind of moved into agentic AI,"},{"startTime":225.4,"endTime":228.46,"body":"where there's this idea that"},{"startTime":225.4,"endTime":228.46,"body":"these things will go out and"},{"startTime":228.46,"endTime":232.3,"body":"kind of perform actions on your"},{"startTime":228.46,"endTime":232.3,"body":"behalf. And that's the whole"},{"startTime":232.3,"endTime":235.3,"body":"idea behind replacing employees"},{"startTime":232.3,"endTime":235.3,"body":"and all that. But it hasn't"},{"startTime":235.3,"endTime":238.54,"body":"really borne fruit yet, so we'll"},{"startTime":235.3,"endTime":238.54,"body":"see how that goes this year. But"},{"startTime":238.54,"endTime":240.84,"body":"another thing that happened last"},{"startTime":238.54,"endTime":240.84,"body":"year that was really interesting"},{"startTime":241.14,"endTime":243.9,"body":"is that the industry started to"},{"startTime":241.14,"endTime":243.9,"body":"acknowledge the need for new"},{"startTime":243.9,"endTime":249.36,"body":"approaches to AI altogether, and"},{"startTime":243.9,"endTime":249.36,"body":"this included the need for World"},{"startTime":249.36,"endTime":254.28,"body":"models and neuro symbolic"},{"startTime":249.36,"endTime":254.28,"body":"hybridization, and even basic"},{"startTime":254.28,"endTime":257.04,"body":"research into the nature of"},{"startTime":254.28,"endTime":257.04,"body":"intelligence. So we'll get into"},{"startTime":257.04,"endTime":260.9,"body":"all that in a second long time."},{"startTime":257.04,"endTime":260.9,"body":"AGI skeptics like Gary Marcus"},{"startTime":260.9,"endTime":264.32,"body":"and more recent converts like"},{"startTime":260.9,"endTime":264.32,"body":"Jan LeCun, who until recently"},{"startTime":264.32,"endTime":267.32,"body":"was the chief AI scientist at"},{"startTime":264.32,"endTime":267.32,"body":"meta, have argued that large"},{"startTime":267.32,"endTime":270.32,"body":"language models are not"},{"startTime":267.32,"endTime":270.32,"body":"sufficient to get us to AGI or"},{"startTime":270.32,"endTime":273.5,"body":"super intelligence, as we've"},{"startTime":270.32,"endTime":273.5,"body":"seen the state of AI at the end"},{"startTime":273.5,"endTime":277.4,"body":"of 2025 kind of bears this out."},{"startTime":273.5,"endTime":277.4,"body":"There's no indication that we're"},{"startTime":277.4,"endTime":280.96,"body":"anywhere close to just these"},{"startTime":277.4,"endTime":280.96,"body":"things. Keep in mind, the"},{"startTime":280.96,"endTime":283.72,"body":"current approaches to AI, which"},{"startTime":280.96,"endTime":283.72,"body":"is called machine learning,"},{"startTime":284.14,"endTime":288.16,"body":"assumes that the mind and"},{"startTime":284.14,"endTime":288.16,"body":"therefore intelligence arises"},{"startTime":288.16,"endTime":291.82,"body":"from the firing of neurons in"},{"startTime":288.16,"endTime":291.82,"body":"the brain. So based on this"},{"startTime":292.48,"endTime":296.2,"body":"foundation, models like Chad,"},{"startTime":292.48,"endTime":296.2,"body":"GPT and Claude and Gemini are"},{"startTime":296.2,"endTime":299.68,"body":"these enormous software"},{"startTime":296.2,"endTime":299.68,"body":"simulations of neural networks"},{"startTime":299.68,"endTime":302.76,"body":"that a. Attempt to recreate the"},{"startTime":299.68,"endTime":302.76,"body":"way the brain works, but in"},{"startTime":302.76,"endTime":305.94,"body":"silicon, of course, the thing"},{"startTime":302.76,"endTime":305.94,"body":"is, though nobody really knows"},{"startTime":305.94,"endTime":308.52,"body":"for sure that their mind or"},{"startTime":305.94,"endTime":308.52,"body":"consciousness arises from the"},{"startTime":308.52,"endTime":312.9,"body":"brain, it's just a theory. So"},{"startTime":308.52,"endTime":312.9,"body":"these models are kind of founded"},{"startTime":312.9,"endTime":316.38,"body":"upon an assumption, and I think"},{"startTime":312.9,"endTime":316.38,"body":"for that reason alone, it's not"},{"startTime":316.38,"endTime":319.02,"body":"clear to me that they'll get to"},{"startTime":316.38,"endTime":319.02,"body":"any kind of intelligence anytime"},{"startTime":319.02,"endTime":322.28,"body":"soon. Nevertheless, AI,"},{"startTime":319.02,"endTime":322.28,"body":"developers are confident that"},{"startTime":322.28,"endTime":325.58,"body":"they have basically solved"},{"startTime":322.28,"endTime":325.58,"body":"intelligence, and they just need"},{"startTime":325.58,"endTime":329.3,"body":"bigger, faster machines and more"},{"startTime":325.58,"endTime":329.3,"body":"data and more money. Of course,"},{"startTime":329.3,"endTime":332.18,"body":"in other words, it's just a"},{"startTime":329.3,"endTime":332.18,"body":"question of scaling to these"},{"startTime":332.18,"endTime":336.32,"body":"people. They have this attitude"},{"startTime":332.18,"endTime":336.32,"body":"that, like, you know again, that"},{"startTime":336.32,"endTime":339.5,"body":"the brain is computable and that"},{"startTime":336.32,"endTime":339.5,"body":"intelligence is like, no big"},{"startTime":339.5,"endTime":342.58,"body":"deal, right? It's just, we're"},{"startTime":339.5,"endTime":342.58,"body":"going to crack it. It's just"},{"startTime":342.58,"endTime":346.12,"body":"around the corner. But what's"},{"startTime":342.58,"endTime":346.12,"body":"interesting, as I alluded to"},{"startTime":346.12,"endTime":348.94,"body":"earlier, is that people are"},{"startTime":346.12,"endTime":348.94,"body":"starting to question this. So"},{"startTime":348.94,"endTime":352.72,"body":"Ilya Sutzkever recently told"},{"startTime":348.94,"endTime":352.72,"body":"dwarkis Patel that the AI"},{"startTime":352.72,"endTime":355.9,"body":"industry is moving from the age"},{"startTime":352.72,"endTime":355.9,"body":"of scaling to the age of"},{"startTime":355.9,"endTime":359.62,"body":"research, meaning research into"},{"startTime":355.9,"endTime":359.62,"body":"what intelligence actually is. I"},{"startTime":359.62,"endTime":365.22,"body":"find this hilarious, because if"},{"startTime":359.62,"endTime":365.22,"body":"you're trying to create human"},{"startTime":365.22,"endTime":368.34,"body":"intelligence, or something"},{"startTime":365.22,"endTime":368.34,"body":"beyond human intelligence,"},{"startTime":368.64,"endTime":371.58,"body":"shouldn't the starting point"},{"startTime":368.64,"endTime":371.58,"body":"have been to understand what"},{"startTime":371.58,"endTime":375.12,"body":"intelligence is anyways. This"},{"startTime":371.58,"endTime":375.12,"body":"is, this is still promising, at"},{"startTime":375.12,"endTime":377.16,"body":"least there's some"},{"startTime":375.12,"endTime":377.16,"body":"acknowledgement here. It's a"},{"startTime":377.16,"endTime":379.98,"body":"good reminder, though, that one"},{"startTime":377.16,"endTime":379.98,"body":"of the major themes of AI"},{"startTime":379.98,"endTime":383.78,"body":"research going back to its"},{"startTime":379.98,"endTime":383.78,"body":"inception in the 1950s is this"},{"startTime":383.78,"endTime":387.26,"body":"unbridled hubris. It's like"},{"startTime":383.78,"endTime":387.26,"body":"intelligence is not that hard"},{"startTime":387.26,"endTime":390.56,"body":"again, but intelligence is hard,"},{"startTime":387.26,"endTime":390.56,"body":"you know, like, there's this"},{"startTime":390.56,"endTime":394.64,"body":"thing called more of X paradox,"},{"startTime":390.56,"endTime":394.64,"body":"right? Where AI models excel at"},{"startTime":394.82,"endTime":398.9,"body":"kind of PhD level intelligence"},{"startTime":394.82,"endTime":398.9,"body":"tests, but they fail at the most"},{"startTime":398.9,"endTime":402.82,"body":"basic tasks. They can't count"},{"startTime":398.9,"endTime":402.82,"body":"the number of hours in the word"},{"startTime":402.82,"endTime":406.42,"body":"strawberry. They can't fold a t"},{"startTime":402.82,"endTime":406.42,"body":"shirt or identify a wet spot in"},{"startTime":406.42,"endTime":409.96,"body":"a photo or a video. They don't"},{"startTime":406.42,"endTime":409.96,"body":"have object permanence, meaning"},{"startTime":409.96,"endTime":412.42,"body":"they don't understand that"},{"startTime":409.96,"endTime":412.42,"body":"things in the world sort of"},{"startTime":412.42,"endTime":416.08,"body":"persist. It's a good reminder"},{"startTime":412.42,"endTime":416.08,"body":"that today's models are not"},{"startTime":416.08,"endTime":418.6,"body":"actually reasoning. Instead,"},{"startTime":416.08,"endTime":418.6,"body":"they are performing"},{"startTime":418.6,"endTime":423.0,"body":"multiplication on very large"},{"startTime":418.6,"endTime":423.0,"body":"sets of numbers to produce new"},{"startTime":423.0,"endTime":426.18,"body":"numbers that are then translated"},{"startTime":423.0,"endTime":426.18,"body":"back to text, images, sound or"},{"startTime":426.18,"endTime":430.44,"body":"video. In contrast, when you or"},{"startTime":426.18,"endTime":430.44,"body":"I solve a Rubik's Cube, for"},{"startTime":430.44,"endTime":433.62,"body":"example, you know, we're"},{"startTime":430.44,"endTime":433.62,"body":"thinking spatially in terms of,"},{"startTime":433.62,"endTime":436.2,"body":"there's colored squares on a"},{"startTime":433.62,"endTime":436.2,"body":"piece of plastic in your hand,"},{"startTime":436.8,"endTime":439.56,"body":"or when you fold a t shirt"},{"startTime":436.8,"endTime":439.56,"body":"you're you're not thinking about"},{"startTime":439.56,"endTime":442.4,"body":"it at all. You're simply just"},{"startTime":439.56,"endTime":442.4,"body":"allowing your hands to perform a"},{"startTime":442.4,"endTime":445.88,"body":"series of motions involving"},{"startTime":442.4,"endTime":445.88,"body":"interactions with cloth that"},{"startTime":445.88,"endTime":448.94,"body":"reflect a lifetime of folding"},{"startTime":445.88,"endTime":448.94,"body":"and interacting with clothes."},{"startTime":449.72,"endTime":452.42,"body":"It's an embodied knowing that is"},{"startTime":449.72,"endTime":452.42,"body":"a function of your having a body"},{"startTime":452.42,"endTime":456.02,"body":"and having a lived experience."},{"startTime":452.42,"endTime":456.02,"body":"So there's something there that"},{"startTime":456.02,"endTime":460.48,"body":"I think is kind of hard to"},{"startTime":456.02,"endTime":460.48,"body":"capture in software on silicon,"},{"startTime":460.48,"endTime":465.58,"body":"just running math. Basically,"},{"startTime":460.48,"endTime":465.58,"body":"these AI models exhibit a kind"},{"startTime":465.58,"endTime":468.76,"body":"of thin and brittle"},{"startTime":465.58,"endTime":468.76,"body":"intelligence, one that's founded"},{"startTime":468.76,"endTime":472.66,"body":"upon in human language, but not"},{"startTime":468.76,"endTime":472.66,"body":"so much language as chunks of"},{"startTime":472.66,"endTime":476.56,"body":"words reduced to numerical"},{"startTime":472.66,"endTime":476.56,"body":"values. It's a number crunching"},{"startTime":476.56,"endTime":480.34,"body":"process in which these models,"},{"startTime":476.56,"endTime":480.34,"body":"as researchers have recently"},{"startTime":480.34,"endTime":484.5,"body":"shown, are simply memorizing"},{"startTime":480.34,"endTime":484.5,"body":"text and then remixing it in"},{"startTime":484.5,"endTime":490.2,"body":"novel ways. So it's it's like"},{"startTime":484.5,"endTime":490.2,"body":"the simulation of intelligence."},{"startTime":490.2,"endTime":494.52,"body":"It's not really intelligence. In"},{"startTime":490.2,"endTime":494.52,"body":"contrast, humans exude and are"},{"startTime":494.52,"endTime":498.24,"body":"permeated by a rich spectrum of"},{"startTime":494.52,"endTime":498.24,"body":"intelligences, most of which we"},{"startTime":498.24,"endTime":501.26,"body":"don't even think about that much"},{"startTime":498.24,"endTime":501.26,"body":"or understand. For that matter,"},{"startTime":501.26,"endTime":503.96,"body":"for example, there's emotional"},{"startTime":501.26,"endTime":503.96,"body":"intelligence, embodied"},{"startTime":503.96,"endTime":508.1,"body":"intelligence and wisdom, and,"},{"startTime":503.96,"endTime":508.1,"body":"you know, all these other"},{"startTime":508.1,"endTime":511.7,"body":"imagination and intuition. And I"},{"startTime":508.1,"endTime":511.7,"body":"want to explore all these"},{"startTime":511.7,"endTime":514.88,"body":"different intelligences in"},{"startTime":511.7,"endTime":514.88,"body":"future episodes. But for now,"},{"startTime":514.88,"endTime":518.66,"body":"let's, let's just stay grounded"},{"startTime":514.88,"endTime":518.66,"body":"in the state of the AI industry."},{"startTime":519.5,"endTime":522.4,"body":"So the first challenge to"},{"startTime":519.5,"endTime":522.4,"body":"intelligence, I think, is this"},{"startTime":522.4,"endTime":527.32,"body":"persistent hallucination problem"},{"startTime":522.4,"endTime":527.32,"body":"today's AI models notoriously"},{"startTime":527.32,"endTime":532.0,"body":"hallucinate or make shit up. Now"},{"startTime":527.32,"endTime":532.0,"body":"I'm not a fan of the of the word"},{"startTime":532.0,"endTime":535.48,"body":"hallucination in this context. I"},{"startTime":532.0,"endTime":535.48,"body":"think hallucination is what"},{"startTime":535.6,"endTime":538.24,"body":"human minds do as a result of"},{"startTime":535.6,"endTime":538.24,"body":"their mysterious"},{"startTime":538.24,"endTime":542.1,"body":"phenomenological nature. So it's"},{"startTime":538.24,"endTime":542.1,"body":"an ill fitting metaphor, I"},{"startTime":542.1,"endTime":545.22,"body":"think. But, you know, it's"},{"startTime":542.1,"endTime":545.22,"body":"become standard nomenclature, so"},{"startTime":545.22,"endTime":550.2,"body":"I'll use it anyways. As we've"},{"startTime":545.22,"endTime":550.2,"body":"seen, AI models don't like know"},{"startTime":550.2,"endTime":554.46,"body":"facts. They only recognize"},{"startTime":550.2,"endTime":554.46,"body":"patterns in text, imagery or"},{"startTime":554.52,"endTime":558.84,"body":"audio. Chad GPT doesn't know,"},{"startTime":554.52,"endTime":558.84,"body":"for example, that Paris is the"},{"startTime":558.84,"endTime":562.04,"body":"capital of France when it"},{"startTime":558.84,"endTime":562.04,"body":"responds to the question, What"},{"startTime":562.04,"endTime":565.04,"body":"is the capital of France? It is"},{"startTime":562.04,"endTime":565.04,"body":"saying Paris, because most of"},{"startTime":565.04,"endTime":568.34,"body":"the time it has come across a"},{"startTime":565.04,"endTime":568.34,"body":"sentence about France and its"},{"startTime":568.34,"endTime":571.34,"body":"training data, and Paris has"},{"startTime":568.34,"endTime":571.34,"body":"been named as the capital."},{"startTime":572.12,"endTime":574.88,"body":"Another way to say this is that"},{"startTime":572.12,"endTime":574.88,"body":"AI models don't store"},{"startTime":574.88,"endTime":579.2,"body":"information in a file or a"},{"startTime":574.88,"endTime":579.2,"body":"database. Instead, they store a"},{"startTime":579.2,"endTime":583.18,"body":"numerical approximation of that"},{"startTime":579.2,"endTime":583.18,"body":"information, and then attempt to"},{"startTime":583.42,"endTime":587.56,"body":"approximately reconstruct when"},{"startTime":583.42,"endTime":587.56,"body":"asked. AI systems are also"},{"startTime":587.56,"endTime":590.38,"body":"designed to please the user, so"},{"startTime":587.56,"endTime":590.38,"body":"they may agree with the"},{"startTime":590.38,"endTime":594.46,"body":"incorrect assertion in order to"},{"startTime":590.38,"endTime":594.46,"body":"satisfy the user. So for"},{"startTime":594.46,"endTime":598.24,"body":"example, if you ask when Al Gore"},{"startTime":594.46,"endTime":598.24,"body":"invented the internet, Chad GPT"},{"startTime":598.24,"endTime":601.56,"body":"may reply, Al Gore. Or invented"},{"startTime":598.24,"endTime":601.56,"body":"the internet in 1993"},{"startTime":603.36,"endTime":607.38,"body":"but he didn't. This is a long"},{"startTime":603.36,"endTime":607.38,"body":"standing joke, and AI models"},{"startTime":607.38,"endTime":612.12,"body":"don't always understand irony or"},{"startTime":607.38,"endTime":612.12,"body":"humor. Fortunately, these models"},{"startTime":612.12,"endTime":615.42,"body":"have improved slightly in terms"},{"startTime":612.12,"endTime":615.42,"body":"of their factual reliability,"},{"startTime":615.78,"endTime":618.9,"body":"not because they understand the"},{"startTime":615.78,"endTime":618.9,"body":"world or have common sense, but"},{"startTime":618.9,"endTime":621.74,"body":"because the AI labs have"},{"startTime":618.9,"endTime":621.74,"body":"grounded them in reliable"},{"startTime":621.74,"endTime":625.46,"body":"sources of information, and they"},{"startTime":621.74,"endTime":625.46,"body":"are hooked up to the specialized"},{"startTime":625.46,"endTime":629.54,"body":"tools for performing specific"},{"startTime":625.46,"endTime":629.54,"body":"tasks. And of course,"},{"startTime":629.54,"endTime":633.26,"body":"intelligent humans also lie and"},{"startTime":629.54,"endTime":633.26,"body":"get facts wrong, so maybe"},{"startTime":633.26,"endTime":636.38,"body":"expecting more from AI systems"},{"startTime":633.26,"endTime":636.38,"body":"is unfair. After all, the"},{"startTime":636.38,"endTime":639.26,"body":"ability to discern truth from"},{"startTime":636.38,"endTime":639.26,"body":"fiction is more of a function of"},{"startTime":639.26,"endTime":642.58,"body":"wisdom than intelligence. We'll"},{"startTime":639.26,"endTime":642.58,"body":"come back to the question of"},{"startTime":642.58,"endTime":646.96,"body":"wisdom in a future episode."},{"startTime":642.58,"endTime":646.96,"body":"Okay, so that's hallucination."},{"startTime":647.74,"endTime":651.76,"body":"The second obstacle, I think, is"},{"startTime":647.74,"endTime":651.76,"body":"this kind of mysterious thing"},{"startTime":651.76,"endTime":654.7,"body":"called common sense, right? It's"},{"startTime":651.76,"endTime":654.7,"body":"a big topic that leads into a"},{"startTime":654.7,"endTime":657.16,"body":"number of other topics that's"},{"startTime":654.7,"endTime":657.16,"body":"well beyond the scope of this"},{"startTime":657.16,"endTime":660.78,"body":"episode, but common sense,"},{"startTime":657.16,"endTime":660.78,"body":"though, has something to do with"},{"startTime":660.78,"endTime":664.14,"body":"moving through the world in a"},{"startTime":660.78,"endTime":664.14,"body":"body with a nervous system, and"},{"startTime":664.14,"endTime":666.9,"body":"all the knowledge that arises"},{"startTime":664.14,"endTime":666.9,"body":"from that, including an"},{"startTime":666.9,"endTime":669.9,"body":"intuitive understanding of"},{"startTime":666.9,"endTime":669.9,"body":"physics and quantities and"},{"startTime":670.02,"endTime":673.56,"body":"object behavior and theory of"},{"startTime":670.02,"endTime":673.56,"body":"mind, you know what people may"},{"startTime":673.56,"endTime":677.34,"body":"be thinking. So this amorphous"},{"startTime":673.56,"endTime":677.34,"body":"nature of common sense is a"},{"startTime":677.34,"endTime":680.42,"body":"reminder that intelligence isn't"},{"startTime":677.34,"endTime":680.42,"body":"a calculation, it's a dynamic"},{"startTime":680.42,"endTime":683.72,"body":"relationship with the physical"},{"startTime":680.42,"endTime":683.72,"body":"and social world. Also, the"},{"startTime":683.72,"endTime":686.6,"body":"thing about common sense is that"},{"startTime":683.72,"endTime":686.6,"body":"it's largely the knowledge that"},{"startTime":686.6,"endTime":689.66,"body":"humans have about the world."},{"startTime":686.6,"endTime":689.66,"body":"It's so obvious that we don't"},{"startTime":689.66,"endTime":692.9,"body":"really write it down so it can't"},{"startTime":689.66,"endTime":692.9,"body":"be fed into these systems as"},{"startTime":692.9,"endTime":696.8,"body":"training data. Okay? So that"},{"startTime":692.9,"endTime":696.8,"body":"brings us to the topic of"},{"startTime":696.8,"endTime":700.22,"body":"language. When you stop and"},{"startTime":696.8,"endTime":700.22,"body":"think about it, it seems odd"},{"startTime":700.22,"endTime":703.48,"body":"that leading AI researchers and"},{"startTime":700.22,"endTime":703.48,"body":"cognitive scientists see"},{"startTime":703.48,"endTime":706.48,"body":"language as the basic building"},{"startTime":703.48,"endTime":706.48,"body":"blocks of intelligence, despite"},{"startTime":706.48,"endTime":709.54,"body":"the fact that humans developed"},{"startTime":706.48,"endTime":709.54,"body":"language primarily to"},{"startTime":709.54,"endTime":713.08,"body":"communicate, not to think, and"},{"startTime":709.54,"endTime":713.08,"body":"has happened relatively"},{"startTime":713.08,"endTime":716.86,"body":"recently. I mean, like 50,000"},{"startTime":713.08,"endTime":716.86,"body":"years ago or so, and"},{"startTime":716.86,"endTime":721.08,"body":"intelligence is much older and"},{"startTime":716.86,"endTime":721.08,"body":"deeper than language, in the"},{"startTime":721.08,"endTime":724.14,"body":"words of a neuroscientist, a"},{"startTime":721.08,"endTime":724.14,"body":"linguist and a cognitive"},{"startTime":724.14,"endTime":727.32,"body":"scientist, and I know that"},{"startTime":724.14,"endTime":727.32,"body":"sounds like a setup for a joke,"},{"startTime":727.32,"endTime":731.46,"body":"but it's not. A couple years"},{"startTime":727.32,"endTime":731.46,"body":"ago, these scientists published"},{"startTime":731.46,"endTime":734.82,"body":"a commentary in the journal"},{"startTime":731.46,"endTime":734.82,"body":"Nature where they explored the"},{"startTime":734.82,"endTime":738.3,"body":"relationship between language"},{"startTime":734.82,"endTime":738.3,"body":"and intelligence, and they found"},{"startTime":738.3,"endTime":740.96,"body":"that although language"},{"startTime":738.3,"endTime":740.96,"body":"facilitates the transmission of"},{"startTime":740.96,"endTime":744.32,"body":"cultural knowledge. Such"},{"startTime":740.96,"endTime":744.32,"body":"linguistic capacity merely"},{"startTime":744.32,"endTime":746.78,"body":"reflects the pre existing"},{"startTime":744.32,"endTime":746.78,"body":"sophistication of the human"},{"startTime":746.78,"endTime":750.38,"body":"mind. Language does not"},{"startTime":746.78,"endTime":750.38,"body":"constitute or undergird"},{"startTime":750.38,"endTime":754.1,"body":"intelligence, although we often"},{"startTime":750.38,"endTime":754.1,"body":"do think using language."},{"startTime":754.16,"endTime":756.8,"body":"Language appears to have arisen"},{"startTime":754.16,"endTime":756.8,"body":"and then evolved for the purpose"},{"startTime":756.8,"endTime":760.48,"body":"of communication, not thought."},{"startTime":756.8,"endTime":760.48,"body":"In that sense, language reflects"},{"startTime":760.48,"endTime":763.42,"body":"the sophistication of human"},{"startTime":760.48,"endTime":763.42,"body":"thought, rather than being a"},{"startTime":763.42,"endTime":767.26,"body":"fundamental building block of"},{"startTime":763.42,"endTime":767.26,"body":"it, neuroscience has shown that"},{"startTime":767.26,"endTime":771.52,"body":"reason is largely independent of"},{"startTime":767.26,"endTime":771.52,"body":"language. We humans use language"},{"startTime":771.52,"endTime":774.76,"body":"to express our internal thought"},{"startTime":771.52,"endTime":774.76,"body":"process and mental state. We"},{"startTime":774.76,"endTime":776.98,"body":"often think in terms of"},{"startTime":774.76,"endTime":776.98,"body":"language, but Language and"},{"startTime":776.98,"endTime":779.68,"body":"Thought are not synonymous. We"},{"startTime":776.98,"endTime":779.68,"body":"just live in a word obsessed"},{"startTime":779.68,"endTime":782.76,"body":"culture. We can verify this"},{"startTime":779.68,"endTime":782.76,"body":"scientifically by looking at"},{"startTime":783.0,"endTime":786.6,"body":"FMRIs of people solving math"},{"startTime":783.0,"endTime":786.6,"body":"problems or engaging in theory"},{"startTime":786.6,"endTime":790.14,"body":"of mind, the non linguistic"},{"startTime":786.6,"endTime":790.14,"body":"areas of the brain light up in"},{"startTime":790.14,"endTime":793.44,"body":"those cases. In other words, the"},{"startTime":790.14,"endTime":793.44,"body":"brain's language network is"},{"startTime":793.44,"endTime":796.08,"body":"distinct from networks that"},{"startTime":793.44,"endTime":796.08,"body":"support thinking and reasoning."},{"startTime":796.32,"endTime":798.96,"body":"In fact, as the authors of that"},{"startTime":796.32,"endTime":798.96,"body":"nature commentary point out,"},{"startTime":799.38,"endTime":801.74,"body":"people who have lost their"},{"startTime":799.38,"endTime":801.74,"body":"linguistic capacities as a"},{"startTime":801.74,"endTime":805.58,"body":"result of brain damage, a"},{"startTime":801.74,"endTime":805.58,"body":"condition known as aphasia, are"},{"startTime":805.58,"endTime":808.7,"body":"still able to reason, solve math"},{"startTime":805.58,"endTime":808.7,"body":"problems, understand the"},{"startTime":808.7,"endTime":812.48,"body":"motivation of others and make"},{"startTime":808.7,"endTime":812.48,"body":"complex plans. You can actually"},{"startTime":812.48,"endTime":816.08,"body":"verify this yourself by"},{"startTime":812.48,"endTime":816.08,"body":"observing a toddler or an"},{"startTime":816.08,"endTime":819.62,"body":"animal. They can obviously"},{"startTime":816.08,"endTime":819.62,"body":"reason about the world and make"},{"startTime":819.62,"endTime":823.12,"body":"plans without using language. So"},{"startTime":819.62,"endTime":823.12,"body":"according to that Nature"},{"startTime":823.18,"endTime":826.24,"body":"article, language is not only"},{"startTime":823.18,"endTime":826.24,"body":"unnecessary for thought, but"},{"startTime":826.24,"endTime":828.94,"body":"it's insufficient for thought."},{"startTime":826.24,"endTime":828.94,"body":"There are brain disorders, for"},{"startTime":828.94,"endTime":831.88,"body":"example, where the person can"},{"startTime":828.94,"endTime":831.88,"body":"sound quite articulate, while"},{"startTime":831.88,"endTime":835.72,"body":"the ability to reason is"},{"startTime":831.88,"endTime":835.72,"body":"impaired, as we see with these"},{"startTime":835.72,"endTime":838.78,"body":"large language models or these"},{"startTime":835.72,"endTime":838.78,"body":"large multimodal models, a"},{"startTime":838.78,"endTime":841.68,"body":"facility with language does not"},{"startTime":838.78,"endTime":841.68,"body":"necessarily reflect actual"},{"startTime":841.68,"endTime":845.22,"body":"comprehension, but it does"},{"startTime":841.68,"endTime":845.22,"body":"create a believable illusion,"},{"startTime":845.22,"endTime":849.3,"body":"because in our society, being"},{"startTime":845.22,"endTime":849.3,"body":"articulate has been a proxy for"},{"startTime":849.3,"endTime":853.08,"body":"intelligence. Of course, we can"},{"startTime":849.3,"endTime":853.08,"body":"point to many public"},{"startTime":853.08,"endTime":855.72,"body":"intellectuals who are widely"},{"startTime":853.08,"endTime":855.72,"body":"considered highly articulate,"},{"startTime":855.84,"endTime":860.54,"body":"yet do not appear to evidence"},{"startTime":855.84,"endTime":860.54,"body":"much intelligence. In short,"},{"startTime":860.72,"endTime":863.18,"body":"being articulate is an"},{"startTime":860.72,"endTime":863.18,"body":"unreliable signal for"},{"startTime":863.18,"endTime":868.4,"body":"intelligence. Language is not"},{"startTime":863.18,"endTime":868.4,"body":"thinking, okay, so it seems like"},{"startTime":868.4,"endTime":870.92,"body":"there's a tenuous relationship"},{"startTime":868.4,"endTime":870.92,"body":"between language and"},{"startTime":870.92,"endTime":873.86,"body":"intelligence, which kind of"},{"startTime":870.92,"endTime":873.86,"body":"undercuts the entire endeavor"},{"startTime":873.86,"endTime":876.98,"body":"that these folks are engaged in."},{"startTime":873.86,"endTime":876.98,"body":"Really, okay? So one attempt to"},{"startTime":876.98,"endTime":879.32,"body":"address the pure language"},{"startTime":876.98,"endTime":879.32,"body":"critique and take a small step"},{"startTime":879.32,"endTime":881.92,"body":"towards developing common sense"},{"startTime":879.32,"endTime":881.92,"body":"is something called World"},{"startTime":881.92,"endTime":886.24,"body":"models, or spatial intelligence."},{"startTime":881.92,"endTime":886.24,"body":"Many of the AI training"},{"startTime":886.24,"endTime":889.96,"body":"challenges seem to arise from a"},{"startTime":886.24,"endTime":889.96,"body":"general lack of embodiment,"},{"startTime":889.96,"endTime":894.7,"body":"especially in the AI training"},{"startTime":889.96,"endTime":894.7,"body":"obviously disembodied algorithms"},{"startTime":894.7,"endTime":897.22,"body":"trained on language and media"},{"startTime":894.7,"endTime":897.22,"body":"alone will never learn to"},{"startTime":897.22,"endTime":900.12,"body":"navigate or understand the"},{"startTime":897.22,"endTime":900.12,"body":"world. At the very least. They"},{"startTime":900.12,"endTime":903.3,"body":"will need to interact with and"},{"startTime":900.12,"endTime":903.3,"body":"experience the world. But"},{"startTime":903.3,"endTime":906.18,"body":"training robots in the real"},{"startTime":903.3,"endTime":906.18,"body":"world is expensive, slow and"},{"startTime":906.18,"endTime":910.08,"body":"dangerous, so the current"},{"startTime":906.18,"endTime":910.08,"body":"approaches to world models and"},{"startTime":910.08,"endTime":913.98,"body":"spatial intelligence simulate"},{"startTime":910.08,"endTime":913.98,"body":"robots in a simulated"},{"startTime":913.98,"endTime":917.64,"body":"environment. So one example of"},{"startTime":913.98,"endTime":917.64,"body":"this is this project called"},{"startTime":918.42,"endTime":922.94,"body":"Jeppe or jepa from Yann LeCun,"},{"startTime":918.42,"endTime":922.94,"body":"the former chief AI scientist at"},{"startTime":922.94,"endTime":927.38,"body":"meta, this project is training"},{"startTime":922.94,"endTime":927.38,"body":"on millions of hours of YouTube"},{"startTime":927.38,"endTime":930.32,"body":"videos combined with a small"},{"startTime":927.38,"endTime":930.32,"body":"amount of robot interaction"},{"startTime":930.32,"endTime":935.3,"body":"data. And the idea there is that"},{"startTime":930.32,"endTime":935.3,"body":"these models will be able to"},{"startTime":935.3,"endTime":938.18,"body":"develop an understanding of"},{"startTime":935.3,"endTime":938.18,"body":"physics and cause and effect and"},{"startTime":938.18,"endTime":941.26,"body":"that sort of thing just from"},{"startTime":938.18,"endTime":941.26,"body":"watching YouTube. Basically. I'm"},{"startTime":941.26,"endTime":943.9,"body":"not so sure this is going to"},{"startTime":941.26,"endTime":943.9,"body":"work, but we'll see this year,"},{"startTime":943.9,"endTime":948.7,"body":"hopefully. Another relatively"},{"startTime":943.9,"endTime":948.7,"body":"new attempt at World models and"},{"startTime":948.7,"endTime":952.6,"body":"spatial intelligence is the"},{"startTime":948.7,"endTime":952.6,"body":"startup world labs, from Ai"},{"startTime":952.6,"endTime":956.5,"body":"scientist Fei Fei Li. They"},{"startTime":952.6,"endTime":956.5,"body":"launched a multimodal world"},{"startTime":956.5,"endTime":959.92,"body":"model late last year called"},{"startTime":956.5,"endTime":959.92,"body":"marble that creates a consistent"},{"startTime":959.92,"endTime":963.72,"body":"3d simulation with its own"},{"startTime":959.92,"endTime":963.72,"body":"internal physics, but again,"},{"startTime":963.72,"endTime":966.42,"body":"it's a simulation, and so maybe"},{"startTime":963.72,"endTime":966.42,"body":"it's a step in the right"},{"startTime":966.42,"endTime":969.72,"body":"direction, but I'm still not"},{"startTime":966.42,"endTime":969.72,"body":"convinced. Maybe the most"},{"startTime":969.72,"endTime":973.56,"body":"promising area of research here"},{"startTime":969.72,"endTime":973.56,"body":"is that Google has been doing"},{"startTime":973.56,"endTime":978.54,"body":"research into using robotics to"},{"startTime":973.56,"endTime":978.54,"body":"train world models, although so"},{"startTime":978.54,"endTime":982.22,"body":"far, they're just these kind of"},{"startTime":978.54,"endTime":982.22,"body":"table top robot arms that are"},{"startTime":982.22,"endTime":985.34,"body":"just moving objects. So I'm not"},{"startTime":982.22,"endTime":985.34,"body":"sure how much use that would be,"},{"startTime":985.52,"endTime":989.54,"body":"more broadly, as I argue in my"},{"startTime":985.52,"endTime":989.54,"body":"forthcoming book, and we'll"},{"startTime":989.54,"endTime":992.72,"body":"discuss in future episodes,"},{"startTime":989.54,"endTime":992.72,"body":"intelligence is embodied to a"},{"startTime":992.72,"endTime":995.72,"body":"greater extent than we think."},{"startTime":992.72,"endTime":995.72,"body":"Having five senses that are"},{"startTime":995.72,"endTime":998.66,"body":"connected to a biological"},{"startTime":995.72,"endTime":998.66,"body":"central nervous system may be"},{"startTime":998.66,"endTime":1001.18,"body":"essential for human"},{"startTime":998.66,"endTime":1001.18,"body":"intelligence. I think it's"},{"startTime":1001.18,"endTime":1003.54,"body":"possible that, from an"},{"startTime":1001.18,"endTime":1003.54,"body":"evolutionary and even"},{"startTime":1003.54,"endTime":1006.42,"body":"metaphysical standpoint, smell,"},{"startTime":1003.54,"endTime":1006.42,"body":"taste and touch are not"},{"startTime":1006.42,"endTime":1011.58,"body":"superfluous niceties, but are an"},{"startTime":1006.42,"endTime":1011.58,"body":"integral part of the package. So"},{"startTime":1011.58,"endTime":1014.16,"body":"although these world models"},{"startTime":1011.58,"endTime":1014.16,"body":"might go part of the way towards"},{"startTime":1014.28,"endTime":1017.16,"body":"helping these AI models"},{"startTime":1014.28,"endTime":1017.16,"body":"understand cause and effect and"},{"startTime":1017.52,"endTime":1020.28,"body":"physics and all that, I don't"},{"startTime":1017.52,"endTime":1020.28,"body":"think they're going to get us"},{"startTime":1020.28,"endTime":1024.74,"body":"anywhere near AGI or super"},{"startTime":1020.28,"endTime":1024.74,"body":"intelligence. Okay, so maybe"},{"startTime":1024.74,"endTime":1027.86,"body":"world models are a small step in"},{"startTime":1024.74,"endTime":1027.86,"body":"the right direction, but there's"},{"startTime":1027.86,"endTime":1031.46,"body":"another piece to intelligence"},{"startTime":1027.86,"endTime":1031.46,"body":"that I want to talk about that"},{"startTime":1031.46,"endTime":1034.82,"body":"isn't really that widely"},{"startTime":1031.46,"endTime":1034.82,"body":"discussed, and that is abductive"},{"startTime":1034.82,"endTime":1039.68,"body":"reasoning, or abduction current"},{"startTime":1034.82,"endTime":1039.68,"body":"AI systems like Chad, GPT or"},{"startTime":1039.68,"endTime":1043.18,"body":"Gemini are modeled primarily on"},{"startTime":1039.68,"endTime":1043.18,"body":"one kind of human intelligence,"},{"startTime":1043.66,"endTime":1047.68,"body":"inductive reasoning. This is a"},{"startTime":1043.66,"endTime":1047.68,"body":"form of bottom up reasoning that"},{"startTime":1047.68,"endTime":1052.06,"body":"draws conclusions from specific"},{"startTime":1047.68,"endTime":1052.06,"body":"observations. For example, if"},{"startTime":1052.06,"endTime":1055.36,"body":"you've only ever seen white"},{"startTime":1052.06,"endTime":1055.36,"body":"swans, you would conclude that"},{"startTime":1055.36,"endTime":1057.94,"body":"all swans are white. That's a"},{"startTime":1055.36,"endTime":1057.94,"body":"form of inductive reasoning."},{"startTime":1058.72,"endTime":1063.3,"body":"You're drawing conclusions from"},{"startTime":1058.72,"endTime":1063.3,"body":"patterns. Basically, in the"},{"startTime":1063.3,"endTime":1067.74,"body":"olden days of AI, in the last"},{"startTime":1063.3,"endTime":1067.74,"body":"century, AI systems were modeled"},{"startTime":1067.98,"endTime":1071.76,"body":"on deductive reasoning, which is"},{"startTime":1067.98,"endTime":1071.76,"body":"more of a top down approach that"},{"startTime":1071.76,"endTime":1074.94,"body":"starts with general statements"},{"startTime":1071.76,"endTime":1074.94,"body":"about the world and applies them"},{"startTime":1074.94,"endTime":1078.78,"body":"to specific instances. To use a"},{"startTime":1074.94,"endTime":1078.78,"body":"famous example, you might say"},{"startTime":1078.78,"endTime":1083.18,"body":"that all men are mortal, and"},{"startTime":1078.78,"endTime":1083.18,"body":"then if Socrates is a man, we"},{"startTime":1083.18,"endTime":1088.46,"body":"know he is mortal. Gary Marcus"},{"startTime":1083.18,"endTime":1088.46,"body":"has long argued that AGI will"},{"startTime":1088.46,"endTime":1092.18,"body":"require a hybrid approach that"},{"startTime":1088.46,"endTime":1092.18,"body":"combines the neural network"},{"startTime":1092.18,"endTime":1095.18,"body":"machine learning that we're"},{"startTime":1092.18,"endTime":1095.18,"body":"relying on today, which is"},{"startTime":1095.18,"endTime":1098.48,"body":"induction, with the more top"},{"startTime":1095.18,"endTime":1098.48,"body":"down symbolic reasoning of older"},{"startTime":1098.48,"endTime":1102.236,"body":"AI systems deduction to create"},{"startTime":1098.48,"endTime":1102.236,"body":"what's known as neuro symbolic"},{"startTime":1102.236,"endTime":1106.496,"body":"AI, Google DeepMind has a long"},{"startTime":1102.236,"endTime":1106.496,"body":"history of using these hybrid"},{"startTime":1106.496,"endTime":1109.196,"body":"approaches to machine learning"},{"startTime":1106.496,"endTime":1109.196,"body":"in specific applications like"},{"startTime":1109.196,"endTime":1113.096,"body":"AlphaGo, and they have been"},{"startTime":1109.196,"endTime":1113.096,"body":"applying a more explicitly neuro"},{"startTime":1113.096,"endTime":1116.396,"body":"symbolic approach to domains"},{"startTime":1113.096,"endTime":1116.396,"body":"like mathematics with alpha"},{"startTime":1116.396,"endTime":1121.5,"body":"geometry and alpha proof. So"},{"startTime":1116.396,"endTime":1121.5,"body":"this neuro symbolic hybrid"},{"startTime":1121.5,"endTime":1124.2,"body":"approach is an attempt to model"},{"startTime":1121.5,"endTime":1124.2,"body":"the two modes of thinking that"},{"startTime":1124.2,"endTime":1127.26,"body":"humans engage in, deductive"},{"startTime":1124.2,"endTime":1127.26,"body":"reasoning and inductive"},{"startTime":1127.26,"endTime":1130.74,"body":"reasoning. But there is this"},{"startTime":1127.26,"endTime":1130.74,"body":"third, more mysterious kind of"},{"startTime":1130.74,"endTime":1133.68,"body":"reasoning called abductive"},{"startTime":1130.74,"endTime":1133.68,"body":"reasoning, that's much harder to"},{"startTime":1133.68,"endTime":1136.62,"body":"model, but it may be crucial to"},{"startTime":1133.68,"endTime":1136.62,"body":"achieving true"},{"startTime":1136.68,"endTime":1141.14,"body":"superintelligence. Abductive"},{"startTime":1136.68,"endTime":1141.14,"body":"reasoning is defined as an"},{"startTime":1141.14,"endTime":1144.44,"body":"inference to the best possible"},{"startTime":1141.14,"endTime":1144.44,"body":"explanation. It's the"},{"startTime":1144.44,"endTime":1147.8,"body":"intellectual leap that"},{"startTime":1144.44,"endTime":1147.8,"body":"detectives and doctors make from"},{"startTime":1147.8,"endTime":1152.18,"body":"a set of facts to a plausible"},{"startTime":1147.8,"endTime":1152.18,"body":"explanation. A detective is not"},{"startTime":1152.24,"endTime":1154.94,"body":"thinking logically, step by step"},{"startTime":1152.24,"endTime":1154.94,"body":"through the problem, examining"},{"startTime":1154.94,"endTime":1157.7,"body":"every possibility, the"},{"startTime":1154.94,"endTime":1157.7,"body":"explanation simply emerges"},{"startTime":1157.7,"endTime":1162.88,"body":"wholesale in his mind. The"},{"startTime":1157.7,"endTime":1162.88,"body":"quintessential example is a is a"},{"startTime":1162.88,"endTime":1166.0,"body":"Sherlock Holmes story, right?"},{"startTime":1162.88,"endTime":1166.0,"body":"For example, in the adventure of"},{"startTime":1166.0,"endTime":1169.48,"body":"the noble bachelor, Sherlock"},{"startTime":1166.0,"endTime":1169.48,"body":"Holmes is able to locate a"},{"startTime":1169.48,"endTime":1173.38,"body":"missing woman who disappeared at"},{"startTime":1169.48,"endTime":1173.38,"body":"her wedding just from a few"},{"startTime":1173.38,"endTime":1176.68,"body":"conversations a hotel receipt,"},{"startTime":1173.38,"endTime":1176.68,"body":"and based solely on his"},{"startTime":1176.68,"endTime":1179.8,"body":"understanding of human behavior"},{"startTime":1176.68,"endTime":1179.8,"body":"and knowledge about what people"},{"startTime":1179.8,"endTime":1180.48,"body":"generally do."},{"startTime":1182.16,"endTime":1185.28,"body":"This, abductive reasoning seems"},{"startTime":1182.16,"endTime":1185.28,"body":"to combine common sense"},{"startTime":1185.7,"endTime":1188.52,"body":"knowledge of the world and some"},{"startTime":1185.7,"endTime":1188.52,"body":"amount of creativity and"},{"startTime":1188.52,"endTime":1192.54,"body":"intuition. It also requires both"},{"startTime":1188.52,"endTime":1192.54,"body":"induction and deduction,"},{"startTime":1193.02,"endTime":1195.78,"body":"induction to identify patterns,"},{"startTime":1193.02,"endTime":1195.78,"body":"and deduction to test the"},{"startTime":1195.78,"endTime":1199.38,"body":"hypothesis. So although nobody"},{"startTime":1195.78,"endTime":1199.38,"body":"knows how abductive reasoning"},{"startTime":1199.38,"endTime":1202.7,"body":"works. Some AI researchers think"},{"startTime":1199.38,"endTime":1202.7,"body":"that having a reliable world"},{"startTime":1202.7,"endTime":1205.4,"body":"model is one step toward being"},{"startTime":1202.7,"endTime":1205.4,"body":"able to reason to the best"},{"startTime":1205.4,"endTime":1209.12,"body":"possible explanation. For"},{"startTime":1205.4,"endTime":1209.12,"body":"example, an AI system would more"},{"startTime":1209.12,"endTime":1213.02,"body":"reliably be able to reason that"},{"startTime":1209.12,"endTime":1213.02,"body":"because a glass is broken, it"},{"startTime":1213.02,"endTime":1216.56,"body":"probably fell off the table."},{"startTime":1213.02,"endTime":1216.56,"body":"Cognitive scientist and"},{"startTime":1216.56,"endTime":1220.04,"body":"philosopher Jerry Fodor thought"},{"startTime":1216.56,"endTime":1220.04,"body":"that in order to perform"},{"startTime":1220.04,"endTime":1223.0,"body":"abductive reasoning, a system"},{"startTime":1220.04,"endTime":1223.0,"body":"would have to draw on everything"},{"startTime":1223.0,"endTime":1226.18,"body":"it knows about the world,"},{"startTime":1223.0,"endTime":1226.18,"body":"because this seems to happen in"},{"startTime":1226.18,"endTime":1229.3,"body":"an instant for humans. It's not"},{"startTime":1226.18,"endTime":1229.3,"body":"clear how to model that in a"},{"startTime":1229.3,"endTime":1233.2,"body":"machine. Philosopher Charles"},{"startTime":1229.3,"endTime":1233.2,"body":"Sanders Peirce, who first"},{"startTime":1233.2,"endTime":1237.7,"body":"studied formalized and named the"},{"startTime":1233.2,"endTime":1237.7,"body":"concept of abduction, ultimately"},{"startTime":1237.7,"endTime":1241.08,"body":"concluded that abduction is some"},{"startTime":1237.7,"endTime":1241.08,"body":"sort of instinct, calling it the"},{"startTime":1241.08,"endTime":1244.32,"body":"light of nature, but I'm not"},{"startTime":1241.08,"endTime":1244.32,"body":"sure that's exactly right. I"},{"startTime":1244.32,"endTime":1248.1,"body":"think it may arise from the same"},{"startTime":1244.32,"endTime":1248.1,"body":"mysterious imaginal realm from"},{"startTime":1248.1,"endTime":1251.4,"body":"which creativity arises. So"},{"startTime":1248.1,"endTime":1251.4,"body":"we'll come back to that in my"},{"startTime":1251.4,"endTime":1255.6,"body":"episode about imagination. The"},{"startTime":1251.4,"endTime":1255.6,"body":"mysterious nature of abductive"},{"startTime":1255.6,"endTime":1258.42,"body":"reasoning in particular is why"},{"startTime":1255.6,"endTime":1258.42,"body":"cognitive scientists and"},{"startTime":1258.42,"endTime":1261.56,"body":"philosophers refer to it as the"},{"startTime":1258.42,"endTime":1261.56,"body":"Dark Matter of intelligence."},{"startTime":1262.34,"endTime":1266.24,"body":"Nobody really understands it"},{"startTime":1262.34,"endTime":1266.24,"body":"basically. And yet, the major AI"},{"startTime":1266.24,"endTime":1269.9,"body":"labs pretend as if it doesn't"},{"startTime":1266.24,"endTime":1269.9,"body":"exist, that induction is all"},{"startTime":1269.9,"endTime":1273.26,"body":"there is to intelligence. If"},{"startTime":1269.9,"endTime":1273.26,"body":"world models are any kind of"},{"startTime":1273.26,"endTime":1276.62,"body":"solution here, I will be"},{"startTime":1273.26,"endTime":1276.62,"body":"watching the work of Fei Fei Li"},{"startTime":1276.62,"endTime":1280.16,"body":"and Jan le Koon very closely"},{"startTime":1276.62,"endTime":1280.16,"body":"this year. You know, if you want"},{"startTime":1280.16,"endTime":1283.12,"body":"to learn more about abductive"},{"startTime":1280.16,"endTime":1283.12,"body":"reasoning, I actually produced a"},{"startTime":1283.12,"endTime":1286.42,"body":"whole video a couple years ago"},{"startTime":1283.12,"endTime":1286.42,"body":"about how non ordinary states of"},{"startTime":1286.42,"endTime":1289.54,"body":"consciousness can give us a clue"},{"startTime":1286.42,"endTime":1289.54,"body":"to abductions origin in the"},{"startTime":1289.54,"endTime":1292.54,"body":"mind. So I'll drop a link to"},{"startTime":1289.54,"endTime":1292.54,"body":"that in the show notes as well."},{"startTime":1293.32,"endTime":1297.16,"body":"In conclusion, the more time"},{"startTime":1293.32,"endTime":1297.16,"body":"that passes since Chad GBT"},{"startTime":1297.16,"endTime":1301.14,"body":"exploded onto the scene and AI"},{"startTime":1297.16,"endTime":1301.14,"body":"CEO started promising the"},{"startTime":1301.14,"endTime":1304.86,"body":"imminent arrival of AGI or super"},{"startTime":1301.14,"endTime":1304.86,"body":"intelligence, the more it"},{"startTime":1304.86,"endTime":1307.2,"body":"becomes apparent that"},{"startTime":1304.86,"endTime":1307.2,"body":"intelligence is deep and"},{"startTime":1307.2,"endTime":1310.44,"body":"mysterious and that we are"},{"startTime":1307.2,"endTime":1310.44,"body":"nowhere close to any kind of"},{"startTime":1310.44,"endTime":1314.22,"body":"super intelligence. So given all"},{"startTime":1310.44,"endTime":1314.22,"body":"these impediments and obstacles"},{"startTime":1314.22,"endTime":1318.12,"body":"to achieving AGI or super"},{"startTime":1314.22,"endTime":1318.12,"body":"intelligence, it's it's strange"},{"startTime":1318.12,"endTime":1322.28,"body":"to me that the AI companies are"},{"startTime":1318.12,"endTime":1322.28,"body":"still so confident that they can"},{"startTime":1322.28,"endTime":1327.2,"body":"do it, and it concerns me"},{"startTime":1322.28,"endTime":1327.2,"body":"because this disconnect, I"},{"startTime":1327.2,"endTime":1330.56,"body":"think, is why the AI bubble is"},{"startTime":1327.2,"endTime":1330.56,"body":"going to burst. Sometime soon."},{"startTime":1331.1,"endTime":1334.28,"body":"We'll see what happens, but"},{"startTime":1331.1,"endTime":1334.28,"body":"that's my prediction, if we're"},{"startTime":1334.28,"endTime":1336.98,"body":"still a long ways off from AGI"},{"startTime":1334.28,"endTime":1336.98,"body":"or super intelligence, what does"},{"startTime":1336.98,"endTime":1340.54,"body":"that mean for the valuations of"},{"startTime":1336.98,"endTime":1340.54,"body":"these AI companies, like open AI"},{"startTime":1340.54,"endTime":1345.34,"body":"or Nvidia. What does it mean for"},{"startTime":1340.54,"endTime":1345.34,"body":"the economy and for humanity?"},{"startTime":1345.82,"endTime":1348.22,"body":"I'll leave you with those"},{"startTime":1345.82,"endTime":1348.22,"body":"questions to ponder until next"},{"startTime":1348.22,"endTime":1353.02,"body":"time. Next time I would like to"},{"startTime":1348.22,"endTime":1353.02,"body":"talk about imagination, but"},{"startTime":1353.32,"endTime":1355.3,"body":"we'll see what happens. We'll"},{"startTime":1353.32,"endTime":1355.3,"body":"see what happens. All right,"},{"startTime":1355.3,"endTime":1356.8,"body":"thanks for listening. I'll see"},{"startTime":1355.3,"endTime":1356.8,"body":"you Next"},{"startTime":1362.68,"endTime":1400.12,"body":"time you you you."}]}