"Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" by Richard_Ngo

Some context for this post: I’ve been working part-time as a consultant for the AI Futures Project over the last year. Most of the work I’ve done for them has involved critiquing and suggesting improvements for their AI 2040 scenario—some of which were addressed, and some of which weren’t. To their credit, they asked me to write up my remaining critiques into a post that would accompany its launch. In the rest of this post I’ll discuss my three biggest high-level criticisms of AI 2040.

Before doing so, I want to emphasize that there are many interesting and thought-provoking details in the scenario. I’ve focused on the high-level framing of the scenario because that's where my main disagreements lie; given the scope of these disagreements, it's hard to evaluate the details.

Since the AI Futures Project paid me to develop and write this criticism, you shouldn’t take this as a fully unbiased perspective. However, they haven’t reviewed this piece, and in general have been open-minded about receiving criticism (as their request for me to post this today demonstrates).

Finally: the preview image for the substack version of this post comes from this video of a dad shouting to his [...]

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First published:
July 9th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BBd2EJywf2xXftyFn/selective-optimism-a-critique-of-ai-2040

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.