Fernie Real Estate Market Report – October 2025: Sales Surge, Listings Drop & Rates Cut

The snow is back on the peaks and Fernie’s real estate market is heating up again.
 In this month’s Fernie Real Estate Market Report, Phil Gadd breaks down October 2025: listings down 22%, sales up 36%, and inventory tightening as winter approaches. Discover what these numbers really mean for buyers, sellers, and investors—and how the Bank of Canada’s latest 2.25% rate cut could shape the months ahead.

Packed with local insight, long-term data trends, and Phil’s on-the-ground perspective, this episode gives you the clarity you need to make smart real-estate decisions in Fernie.

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Transcript

Phil: 0:00

The snow is back on the peaks and the Fernie real estate market is heating up again. Fewer homes on the market, more buyers making moves and prices holding steady. So let's dig into what that means. If you are thinking of buying or selling this winter here in Fernie. Welcome to the Property Mindset Podcast, the home of the Ferny Real Estate market report. Welcome back to the Property Mindset Podcast beginning of the month, which means one thing. It is the Ferny Real Estate Market Report. Woo-hoo. let's get into it. New listings, in October, 2022, we had a. So that's down 22% on October 20, 24. New listings, year to date, we're actually down on last year. down 10% at 222 So a short break from our show sponsor exp Luxury at first TrackX Real Estate Group. Imagine a real estate experience where your luxury property isn't just seen but showcased both locally and globally. Exp luxury is about more than transactions. It's about transforming how high end properties reach the market with a blend of unparalleled global exposure, cutting edge marketing strategies, and an elite network of professionals. E exp Luxury ensures your property stands out in the luxury market. Phil Gad and the First Tracks real estate group leverages platform to elevate your listings, ensuring it reaches its full potential. Welcome to the new standard in Luxury real estate. sold listings, we were up considerably in October, 2025. we had 19 sold listings. That's up 36% and sold listings. Year to date. in the total of Ferny we've had 143, so that's, exactly the same as in 2024. Markets kind of evened out as we're getting towards the end of the year. you know, it's been an interesting year so far. I'll just. Stop and have a little conversation about that because, you know, obviously I'm really into my numbers, but numbers just don't paint the whole picture. Um, I believe, you know, we're in a very different market than we were at the beginning of 2024, and even towards the end of 2024, it's solidified the fact that everything under a million dollars has been incredibly active. And then looking at things above a million, slowing down as you go higher and higher and higher. But we have seen some really big numbers being sold in 2025. We've got an influx of different buyers, some from the us. coming up wanting to, move away from what's happening down there. Others just wanna buy into what they consider is, A community that was very similar to theirs, if they're coming from someone like Breckenridge or Bozeman. a lot what I've heard this year is, very, very similar communities to what we experienced 20 years ago. So that suggests a testament to how fricking awesome Ferny is. I've been here 16 years now full time. First came here 21 years ago, and you know, my kids have grown up here, still growing up here. We absolutely love living here and it is a very, very desirable place and properties do desirable properties. Well priced in this market do sell quickly. So there you go. There's a little bit of divergence from the numbers. A little take on what I see things happening at the moment. Um, medium price at the moment this year is at 735,000. that is slightly up 2% on last year. Average prices down for October, 2025. Quite, quite considerably. the average list price, is down 20%, 872,883, and the average sale price is also down 17% at 826,813 as of October, 2025. Now, let's look at year to date. Year to date tells a very similar story. the average list price, year to date in 2025 is slightly above where we were for October at 895,377. That's actually pretty much the same. Well, no change on last year, and the average sale price is up 1%, so slightly up at 856,669. The average list to sale ratio or the average sold to list ratio in days on market. interesting stats. So, 95% sell to list ratio, that's up 4%. So still property selling relatively close to what they list for and days on market. Even though it's down, it's still relatively high. Last month it was 49. This month we're 86, but that's down 21% on the same time last year. So properties sitting on the market for about average, where we are right now in 2025. the MSI number, that's down. So that's gone up. I think back in August or July. We were right up almost at eight something. Now we're at 5.14, that's down 32%. So we are edging, we're in a balance market, but we are edging back down towards, a market with low inventory. active inventory 72, and that is down 24% on this time last year. So yeah, interesting numbers there. let's have a look at the last five years, year on year percentage increase of the average sale price. So if you bought a house in 2021. Year on year. Over the last five years, it's actually gone up almost 11%, 10.76%. That's not bad. That's a really good return, on your money there. if you've bought an investment property, fantastic. Good on you. if you bought your home, you're living in it, but it has appreciated every year, 10.76%. Let's have a look back over the last decade here in Ferny. So if you bought a home in 2015, the average sale price would've been 345,896. Today we are at 856,669. So over the last decade, still a very healthy return from investment point of view. If you bought a home in 2015 every year, it would've increased by 8.52%. So good on you for buying in 2015, year on year increase for the median, sale price. it's slightly lower, but still a healthy 10.2, 6%. So again, if you bought back in 2021, you've seen some really good returns on the median price, and same again, the average year on year increase for the median house price in Ferny has increased every year by 7%, 7.07%. So there we go. That is the Ferny Real Estate market report for October, 2025. As you can see, things are kind of averaging out Bouncing along, nice and evenly towards the end of the year. what else can we say at this point? Well, the Bank of Canada interest rate announcements was on October 29 just gone and they did reduce the base rate by 2.25%. So that's excellent news. if you have a variable mortgage, and you know, we'll wait and see what happens to the fixed rate. market. But, as predictions go for the end of 2025, the Bank of Canada has signaled that the reduction might be the end of the rate cutting cycle unless something, dramatic happens. Trump drops another bunch of tariffs on us. Well, we'll wait and see. but no further cuts are expected. market consensus and forecasts largely expect a relatively stable rate environment, until the rest of 2025. So we'll see how that affects the phony real estate market. If you do have any questions about the Ferny real estate market, if you're thinking of buying, if you're thinking of selling, then please do get in contact. My number as always is 7 7 8 7 4 5 0 3 4 7. Below this video, there's a link where you can book a call directly into my calendar. But as always, stay focused, stay informed, and keep building. Keep building that property mindset.