Fernie Real Estate December 2025 | What the Market Is Telling Us

In this episode of The Property Mindset Podcast, Phil Gadd breaks down the December 2025 Fernie real estate market and what the full year revealed.

2025 wasn’t a boom year — but it was a telling one. Inventory remained tight, homes sold faster, and prices held steady through year-end, showing real underlying demand in the Fernie housing market. December’s numbers help explain where buyer confidence is returning, why supply remains the key pressure point, and how these trends are setting up 2026.

This episode is essential listening if you’re buying, selling, or investing in Fernie real estate and want clear, data-driven context before making your next move.

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Show Sponsor: First Tracks Real Estate Group - eXp Luxury

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Transcript

2026-01-08 16-10-36: 0:00

2025 wasn't a boom year, but it was a telling one a tighter market, faster turnover and real demand underneath the surface. The question now isn't what happened last year is what it means for Fernie in 2026. Here's what the Fernie real estate market just told us.

0:20

Welcome to the Property Mindset Podcast, the home of the Ferny Real Estate market report.

Phil: 0:28

Okay, so it is the market summary. look back at December, 2025 and essentially look back over the year. That was 2025. We're, at the beginning of January now, 2026. So let's see, in retrospect what the year looked like last year and, what we can look forward to in 2026. so there was 11 new listings. In December, 2025, that's up, up 120%. that's quite incredible. We don't normally get that many listings, at this time of year. new listings, year to date, well slightly down on, 2024, we only had, 246 new residential listings here in Ferny. down 6%.

1:11

So a short break from our show sponsor exp Luxury at first TrackX Real Estate Group. Imagine a real estate experience where your luxury property isn't just seen but showcased both locally and globally. Exp luxury is about more than transactions. It's about transforming how high end properties reach the market with a blend of unparalleled global exposure, cutting edge marketing strategies, and an elite network of professionals. E exp Luxury ensures your property stands out in the luxury market. Phil Gad and the First Tracks real estate group leverages platform to elevate your listings, ensuring it reaches its full potential. Welcome to the new standard in Luxury real estate.

Phil: 1:56

sold listings in, December, 2025. Up 25% at 25 year to date. slightly down. zero point, zero six. the total sold residential listings in Ferny this year were 167. the medium price no change from November, at, 732,000, and that's up 1% on 2024. the average list price, in December of 2025 was up 17% at 849,125, and the average sale price was also up 15%, at 812,655. year to date, average prices, The average list price in Ferny was 587, And the average sale price, slightly up on 2024, just up 1% at$845,066. the, sell to list ratio, pretty much for last year, slightly, pretty much unchanged, only down 1% at 96%. So if you sold your property in Ferney you would have achieved on average 96%. Of your list price. days on markets obviously dropped, not obviously, but has dropped fairly significantly down to 59. that's down 31% on, 2024. Month supply of inventory. Now this is quite an interesting number. We do pay a lot of attention to the MSI number here at, first Tracks Real Estate group. it's below four. It's at 3.88, and that's down 13%. Now, that would suggest we are moving away from a balanced market towards a seller's market. So interesting number to keep an eye on as we move into 2026. active inventory also down, 45. That's down 14% on 2024. So, as always, inventory, always, a slight issue. here in Ferny, we don't have much of it. it's down at the moment at 54. year on year increases, well, it doesn't have to be an increase, but it has done over the last five years in Ferny. if you bought a property in 2021, down here, then over the last. Five years, it would've increased 10.42% at 845,066. on average in 2021, it would've been worth 539,912. So look back over the last decade. So all the way back in, 2015, the average Ferny house price was 345,869. Fast forward to 2025 and, again, the same number, but that would've increased, your property would've increased on average year on year average increased. Would've been 8.39% in the last decade. Now the median price, year on year increase from 2021. So in 2021, the medium house price was 470. Fast forward five years, we are at 732,000 year on year percentage increase over the last decade. For the median house price is at seven. Point zero three. So right back here in 2015 the median house price was 330,000. Fast forward 10 years, we're at 732. Again, a year on year increase, percentage increase of 7.03.

2026-01-08 14-39-22: 5:44

So what does all the data from December tell us about 2025? What we saw in 2025 wasn't just random noise. It was a story of a market that tightened up, move faster and showed real underlying demand. Even when broader markets were shaky, buyers came off the fence as the year progressed and homes turned over quicker, inventory stayed tighter than we'd like to see it, which always puts pressure on pricing when demand pushes up. That combination is a backdrop of what we think is coming next 2026, looking forward. Now, let's put Ferny in a broader context. At national level, most major housing forecasts point to a moderate rebound in activity in 2026 with sales expected to climb noticeably compared to 2025. The Canadian Real Estate Association, for example, is forecasting a roughly 8% increase in national transactions next year, which is the strongest volume we've seen in several years. Price forecasts are more nuanced. Some economists expect modest gains of a few percent while others show uh, flattening or slight decline in certain regions as markets rebalance, what that tells us, something important 2026 isn't about runaway price spikes. It's about stability and the return to confidence. Buyers who are hesitant in 2024, and much of 2025 now have a clearer footing of what's showing. The transaction forecasts on the provincial side. British Columbia's housing forecast is leaner, but still pointing to increased activity in 2026. With MLS sales projected to climb as buyer sentiment improves and the economic uncertainty eases. that sets up an interesting dynamic for Ferny. Our market doesn't just move because of local factors. It moves because of the relative position we occupy compared to other BC mounting communities. Uh, when holding prices go up elsewhere, capital and lifestyle bars can start to look at markets like ours with fresh eyes. Put it all together, and here's the pattern I see for 2026. Market momentum is returning buyers who paused in 20 24, 20 25 start to act in 2026, particularly. As mortgage stresses settles and confidence improves, inventory is still stretched. Ferny hasn't had enough stock to satisfy demand for years, and that won't change overnight when buyers show up and supplies still lean. Prices are supported even if growth is measured rather than explosive. Policy shifts create relative advantages because holding costs rise elsewhere in bc, Ferny becomes more attractive to certain buyers simply by comparison. IE Squamish, bam Revel stoke. Whistler. So the bottom line 2026 isn't about a dramatic boom or a repeat of sustainable gains. It's shaping up to be a recovery plus year more transactions, stable to modest price growth, less volatility, and more predictable environment for buyers and sellers alike. that's the kind of market where prepared sellers win and inform buyers, get solid value. So I'm Phil Gadd with the Property Mindset Podcast. Stay informed, stay strategic, and keep building the property mindset, and let's keep our eyes on what lies ahead.