Fernie Real Estate Market Update | November 2025: Listings Down, Sales Up, Confidence Returns

In this episode of The Property Mindset Podcast, Phil Gadd breaks down the November 2025 Fernie real estate market. Listings are down, sales are up, and inventory is tightening as winter approaches. With prices holding steady and a new Bank of Canada rate cut boosting buyer confidence, this episode explores what these shifts mean for anyone planning to buy, sell, or invest in Fernie heading into 2026.

The Fernie market continues to show its resilience.

November 2025 brought fewer listings, stronger sales activity, and tightening inventory — all signs of a market that’s quietly gaining momentum as we move toward winter and into the new year. Combined with a recent Bank of Canada rate cut, buyer confidence is starting to return.

In this episode, Phil covers:

• Why listings dropped while sales increased
• What tightening inventory means for pricing and competition
• How interest rate cuts are impacting buyer behaviour
• Where the real opportunities may be in 2026

If you’re considering a move or investment in Fernie, this episode will help you understand the bigger picture and plan your next steps with confidence.

00:00 Introduction
00:39 November 2025 Fernie market overview
00:44 Listings, sales, and pricing trends
01:08 Sponsor message – eXp Luxury
01:54 Year-to-date market performance
02:59 Days on market and inventory levels
06:17 Interest rates and economic outlook
07:18 Market opportunities heading into 2026
08:13 Strategy for buyers, sellers, and investors
09:04 Final thoughts and how to get in touch

👉 Schedule a consultation with Phil today

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Show Sponsor: First Tracks Real Estate Group - eXp Luxury

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Transcript

0:00

Is the Fernie market cooling down or heating up? The answer is yes. November stats are in and they show a massive 30% drop in sales volume. Yet entry level buyers are still fighting tooth and nail for properties. We are living in a market paradox. I'm Phil Gadd, and today I'm breaking down why the gap between the home you may have and the home you want might be smaller than ever. Let's get in to the Fernie Market Report for November, 2025. Welcome to the Property Mindset Podcast, the home of the Ferny Real Estate market report. Hey, let's get into it. Market summary for Ferny Real Estate. November, 2025. New listings in November. This year, we had 13 new listings. That's up 18% on November, 2024. New listings, year to date, 235, that's actually down 9% on 2024 sold listings. Last month in November, we had 12, and that's actually down almost 30%, 29%. So a short break from our show sponsor exp Luxury at first TrackX Real Estate Group. Imagine a real estate experience where your luxury property isn't just seen but showcased both locally and globally. Exp luxury is about more than transactions. It's about transforming how high end properties reach the market with a blend of unparalleled global exposure, cutting edge marketing strategies, and an elite network of professionals. E exp Luxury ensures your property stands out in the luxury market. Phil Gad and the First Tracks real estate group leverages platform to elevate your listings, ensuring it reaches its full potential. Welcome to the new standard in Luxury real estate. Year to date listings are also slightly down, only 157 listings sold in the Ferny area this year in 2025, the median price is up very slightly this year, as of December at 732,000. So let's look at the broader pitch and the average list price for November last month was 767.$917. That's down 8% on the same time last year. The average sale price is also down last month to seven hundred and sixty six, seven hundred forty one. That's also down 5% on last year. Pretty much no change at the moment on year to date. For list price and sale price, the average list price this year is eight hundred and eighty three, six hundred fifty five, and the average sale price is 847,131. Days on market sold to list ratio. As of last month, the sold to list ratio is up 3% to 99%. That means properties selling last month, were selling almost at list price. Uh, on average days on market is down slightly 80 days, pretty average, anywhere between 1790 days. We're very, very average days. On market. It's at 5.9, five down 8%. It's kind of an indication of a balance market, active inventory as of last month, 68, and that's also down slightly at 6% year on year increase of the average sale price over the last five years. It's kind of averaging out over the last two, but for. Still, if you bought a home here in Ferny in 2021, every year, you would've increased its value a year on year by 10.48%. That's quite a healthy number. The year on year increase over the last decade dropped slightly, but still very healthy. So if you'd bought a property back in 2015, good on you because it would've only cost you on average, 345,896 compared to today. Big jump to 847,000. So that's a year on year increase of 8.41%. So the median sale price still year on year increase over 10%, but it's kind of averaging out over the last three years and then the last decade, again quite healthy, year on year increase over the last 10 years. For the medium price, it is at 7.03. Okay, so we've crunched the numbers. Uh, sales seem to be finding a bit of rhythm at the moment. Prices may be stabilizing, but if you're a regular listener, you know that data without context is just noise. So let's dig a little deeper into what's actually happening here in Ferny. I believe we're in a bit of a transitional period, and if you understand the mechanics of it, I believe also there's a serious window of opportunity opening up when we go into 2026. So let's first look at the headline number inventory. Right now we're sitting at 5.95 months of inventory. Now, if you follow market cycles, you know that that's around the magic number for a balanced market. We aren't in the frantic chaos of a few years ago, but we also aren't in a slump. But there is a bit of a paradox happening here. While the broad stats say balance, the reality is much sharper. When certain properties hit the market at certain price point and it's priced competitively and at the lower end, we're still seeing very competitive offer scenarios. We are seeing this, especially, like I said, at the bottom end of the market, buyers are desperate to get into Ferny. So even though the overall market feels calmer. There's certain entry level segment that's still a bit of the battleground, and here is the catch. Even though some of those sticker prices may look low, the value per square foot is quite high. You're paying a bit of a premium even to get in at the entry point. Just the reality of Ferny. Now looking at the bigger economic picture, all eyes are on next Wednesday, December the 10th. That is the next Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Everyone's expecting a hold. The policy rate is currently sitting at 2.25%. After the cut we saw in October, right now the market is pricing in a 92% chance that the bank will hold steady. So why the pause? Most likely the economy is actually showing some muscle. Third quarter GDP growth came in stronger than expected, and there are still some underlying inflationary pressures. Even if the US Fed cuts rates on the same day, we expect the Bank of Canada to stand its ground. This is actually good news for us. It signals stability. We aren't in an emergency rate cutting mode anymore. We are in a predictable environment. Keep your eye on the November employment report coming out just before. That decision that will be, in my opinion, the final piece in the puzzle. So if we have a paradox where the bottom of the market is hot and expensive per square foot cost, but the broader market is balanced, where do we find the opportunity? Well, maybe it's in upsizing. If you own an entry-level townhouse or condo, you're holding an asset. Everyone wants, you can, like, you can likely sell a competitive situation for a premium price in this current market. Meanwhile, the mid to high-end market, the detached homes, the upgrades are sitting at about 5.95 months of inventory. Those sellers aren't seeing multiple offers. They're seeing days on market tick up. So what's the strategy? You sell in a seller's macro climate and you buy in a balanced market. The gap between your current home and your dream home is likely never been smaller than it is right now. That is how you win in a transitional market. So let's wrap this up with a bit of a game plan. If you're a buyer, be strategic. If you are at the entry level, know that you're probably gonna be competing. Have your financing buttoned up nice and tight. If you're moving up the ladder, you have the leverage. Use a stable interest rate environment and the inventory choice to negotiate. If you're a seller, you need to be realistic. If you're at that entry price point, pricing competitively can spark a bidding war, but if you're in the higher brackets, you can't just stick a sign in the lawn. You need to present value because buyers have a lot to choose from. If you're investor, watch the price per square foot. Don't get caught up in the frenzy at the bottom end. Where the masks don't work. Look for where the value is lagging, often in the mid-market segment that is currently softer. So that is a deep dive for November. We're heading in what looks like a very strong 2026. The fundamentals are there, the stability is returning. If you've got questions about where your home fits in this paradox, whether you're holding a hot ticket, entry level home, or looking to make that move up, book a call with me using the link below. I'm Phil Gad. Thanks for listening, but always stay focused, stay informed, and keep building that property mindset.