Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Talking Oil and Iran with Rory Johnston (FvF Ep. 183)

Carson Investment Research

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A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.

In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.

The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.

If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.


Jump to:

0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction

2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis

6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics

10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins

20:50 The Double Blockade Explained

27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets

29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction

33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative

36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation

50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent

57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing




Connect with Ryan:

• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Rory Johnston:

• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/

• X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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