S3Ep25 - NHL Playoff Preview to the Preview

The Overrated Experience is back and its the final week in the NHL Season.

The playoffs are around the corner so we are launching a Preview to the Preview of the NHL playoffs.

• Who is favoured to win the Stanley Cup and why?
• What do the Vancouver Canucks do now?
• Who is still in the playoff race?
• Who is in and out for Sunday's action that will impact your bets?

Watch out this for the official Overrated Experience NHL Playoff betting preview.

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01.204)
Welcome back to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle blonde and it's been a long time since we last talked. We have taken a long break since, I don't know when to be very honest with you, but with the NHL playoffs around the corner, consider this to preview to the preview of the Stanley Cup final. And we got a mixture of betting action to look forward to, but also just in general for you, NHL fans out there, my thoughts, my takes on.

Many of the directions of these teams and what the playoffs look like. Again, this is the preview to preview episode of the overrated experience. NHL edition. We are found on X at overrated E X P E R two. That's overrated E X P E R two. And welcome back. Wow. It's been a long journey, a long time. I just spent 10 minutes trying to figure out if I wanted to pull the trigger on doing a live streaming and set it just to audio podcast. Wow. What a pain in the ass.

Checking privacy settings, checking all those things that involve trying to go online on X and also YouTube. can't, know, millions of people around the world do this, no problem. But when you try to quickly do it, you know yourself, things go wrong. So hopefully I'll get that going and maybe, just maybe, the live streaming will be a part of the preview of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. Now this is the preview to the preview, so we're not gonna go that far and do the live stream. I'm hoping to aim.

for the pre-betting view of the 2025 edition of the NHL playoffs. Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, whenever the time allows me to do so. But here we are, another season almost coming to the books, being in Toronto. Of course, the thought is, where do the Toronto Maple Leafs stand right now? Well, I can tell you today they play their 80th game. They played in Carolina.

and they can pretty much shore up the metropolitan division. I mean, sorry, the Atlantic division in the NHL. And if there's a team that needs a, an actual division win, I think out of the Atlantic division, it is the Toronto Maple East. The Toronto Maple East currently sit four points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning, which also has played 79 games. The Florida Panthers sit four points back in the Atlantic division with 80 games played.

Kyle Blondin (02:26.318)
So I think they're probably out of it, but the least played today, they take on the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes don't have much to play for. They're already locked into a series with the New Jersey Devils, which we'll talk to in a bit, but a lot going on. So if you look down the schedule today, keep in mind, you betters out there for some of the action that's gonna go on today, which the first puck drop is in New Jersey, and Islanders Devils, really nothing much to play for there. Sen's Flyers.

I got to believe at one o'clock that the flyers and sends, know, as gets it, as puck drops, the senators really don't fear after Montreal's lost last night, even though they gained a point that there's a risk that they will drop out of the seventh seed, or I guess you would say the first wild card spot likely to play the Atlantic division winning Toronto Maple Leafs. But that could change in the next three games starting today for the lease Boston, pet Pittsburgh would have right off with a waste of time.

If look at Pittsburgh, I shake my head, man, I get it. Sid the Kid, he's the face of the Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL legend, scored the golden goal, really signifies Canada hockey, but I had to believe that he still has some juice left where he wanted to contend, go on another playoff run and chose not to open the door to a trade for the Penguins.

Not to say I believe Kyle Dubas and the Penguins are smart enough to get value. However, the Penguins are going to be in a tough spot heading into next season and maybe a few seasons. They're going to have to retool. They may have to go from the foundation after Malkin and Crosby leave and the Tanglies and what do you do with Eric Carlson? They went all in for this last run. That last one fell on their face and a former Leaf general manager, Kyle Dubas.

Really didn't have any magic, his analytics didn't work, whatever he was trying to do just isn't cutting it in Pittsburgh. So does he have a future? We'll find out as well. Buffalo into Tampa, Tampa trying to keep on top of the Leafs. So I expect them at minus 275 to smack the Sabres around the Sabres. Really got nothing to play for. Blue Jackets, which are a team that is in the hunt, dropped off late in the season and have made a surge back.

Kyle Blondin (04:50.74)
What do we got here for the Blue Jackets? Let's just look at the wild card standings here. The Blue Jackets must win. They got three games remaining. There's five points behind the Montreal Canadiens. So basically, need every win. They can't lose in a shootout and overtime. They gotta go for it. So that might make it interesting as this game creeps down to the later minutes in the game of Washington, which really has nothing to play for right now.

This, you know, is up 3-2. sorry. What would you say? 3-3? I'm trying to think of what would be the best thing for the Blue Jackets. Like, they may have to make wild decisions within a game to keep that two points in mind. They cannot, you know, they cannot rely on a chance to not score points. Who knows? Does this evolve something crazy like pulling your goaltender in overtime? If your team has possession to go all in for it, I don't know.

I don't know, but that allows you to put the destiny in your hands and that's what the Jackets gotta do. Moving on later that night, the Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets, Oilers really looked like they're locked into starting on the road in LA to take on the Kings. The Jets going to be President's trophy winning team. I do not think they get the respect, the respect that they probably deserve as the President's best team in the NHL record wise. I just wanna make sure I got that right. So, 109 Jets.

The Jets got 114, they've locked in. They are not the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. We'll get to that in a second here, which is, you know, it doesn't mean you're a President's Trophy winner that you should be favored, but I mean, I don't know what else they can do to get the investors out there, AKA you betters, any sort of assurances that they can make a Stanley Cup run. But that's part of it too, right? Do you really believe, do you envision the Winnipeg Jets in a Stanley Cup final holding a Stanley Cup?

Up like it's it's just something about the Winnipeg Jets regardless of how well they've played this year Just don't believe what they're doing and then you got the San Jose Sharks, which are an up-and-coming team We'll see where that goes with Macklin Celebrini to get on the Calgary Flames Desperate for a win. They also are in a position if they want to stay alive in this race anyway anyhow they need to get the two points and they have a four-point window they got two point actually have two games in hand on st. Louis and

Kyle Blondin (07:19.702)
So there is a shot, there's a chance, but they need wins and they need to win tonight. They need to take care of the, they need to keep care of the San Jose sharks. And they're basically the last team in the Western conference that has a shot along with Columbus is the only team in the Eastern conference that actually has a shot to make the playoffs slim to none. We'll see if that leaves town tonight. So we also have the Colorado Avalanche in Hymd Docs. Keep in mind that the Avalanche in their last game decided to sit.

Nathan McKinnon, will not travel with the avalanche to take on the ducks. So if you're betting that game, keep that in mind. might look at the, in-hide ducks is maybe value here. Colorado's really got nothing to play for. you know, who else? There's also a story with, the goaltending in, so McKenzie Blackwood is, go on, geez, McKenzie Blackwood.

I'm see healthy. Yeah, I guess I don't know you might be a little banged up I don't know but you know go to any situation in Colorado is was rectified late not late this year to get them on track and they've their motoring into the playoffs looks like who's Colorado gonna have here so Colorado looks like they're probably gonna match up against the

Okay, hold on, please hold on Colorado looks like they're probably gonna match up against the Dallas Stars Which probably be the primo matchup of the NHL playoffs So as we get to our preview later in the week, we'll find out what the betting lines look at but there There's some stories that we should look at for teams that did not make the playoffs And really maybe the direction that their franchises need to go So you look at the Vancouver Canucks Really coming off a strong

initial season for Rick Tauket. Now it looks like the stock is down on him. Do they keep him behind the bench or they move on? Brock Besser stayed. He doesn't see himself coming back with the Canucks. You remember that debacle with JT Miller and Elias Pedersen. Pedersen's gone for the rest of the season, even though there's not much left. He had a kind of a downer as well. His production has dropped and not to where the Canucks expect him to be. But where do you go next year? think,

Kyle Blondin (09:37.378)
Canucks are in a weird spot. They don't look like they're in a position to completely, really tear it apart. think they're going to go forward with probably retaining Rick Tauke it. when you have Quentin Hughes on the back end, who's probably going to be your Norris trophy winner. You can't really tear down. You got to really, really build from the back. Thatcher Demko had a struggle this season to stay healthy, but when he's healthy, man, he's a top notch goaltender and a difference maker.

So they really got to assess is Thatcher Demko going to be able to carry a heavier load and stay healthy because it's a big difference in their season. I can't stress enough though, Elias Patterson, their 26 year old superstar or was a superstar, maybe he's lost it. Maybe his stock is down. Will he recover? I don't know if the Canucks have a choice to necessarily move on or think about moving on versus

let's make a run at it, you really got to go into next season. And it's really got to be the measuring stick where this organization's going because if Patterson can't go and he cannot retain his form and that trade where JT Miller left to go to the Rangers, hopefully getting rid of the issue in the room, the Canucks are in big trouble and or have to make a decision. Again, with Quinton Hughes in the back end, I don't think that decision is going to be a complete tear down after next season.

but you gotta believe some significant decisions need to be made in Vancouver to get back to where they wanna be, and that's a playoff contender. So, a lot to think about on the West Coast, you know, tough season this season.

the Canadian teams you look at Calgary Flames you talked about where they are they got wolf and net some bright spots there but I mean do really see this franchise really putting together three straight wins in st. Louis for floundering the rest away the last game they got to play I just don't see it happening and Calgary you know they're really holding on to they get that new rink

Kyle Blondin (11:42.882)
Maybe that new revenue, that new shine on the organization where they can attract talent. Because right now they're kind of in a bland situation in Calgary. Boston Bruins be very, actually that's an unknown, right? What's the plan in Boston? It's hard for me to, even though despite all the moves of the trade deadline, to picture the Boston Bruins, a team that will call it quits for a couple of years.

I don't see it. gotta believe they'll tip their toe into the free agency market. You know, they got pasta pasta there for a lengthy period of time. Not too long ago, signed a lengthier contract that pretty, a pretty big one. You have Swain and Annette, have, you know, you you still have Charlie McEvoy. You got some nice pieces there to build around. So we'll see where they go. But Boston Bruins are probably a very interesting story. I don't know what way they'll do it. They have, they have a winning mentality.

So I won't be surprised if they do something to kind of kick back their playoff hunt next year, despite what it looks like today. Other teams, Philadelphia Flyers, man, this is a team that's in flux. Somebody asked the question about, do you picture that John Tortorello will coach again? I gotta think that ship has sailed, guys. I really do. think the John Tortorello ship has sailed.

The John Tartarella, he's a Stanley Cup champion winning coach with the Tampa Bay Lightning years ago, and that was during when he could still get a whistle for a two line pass. It's a long time ago. He's had some success in regular season successes with the Rangers, you know, had time in Columbus, now Philadelphia, brief time in Vancouver. I don't, so here's where hockey is weird. The NHL still has an element of the old boys school club, like the Lulamorellas and

Long Island with the stupid facial hair crap. John Toterella may come across somebody's radar, an owner who feels that their team needs discipline and or a hard nose coach. But guys, that time is done. I think he has a short timeframe of tolerance with today's NHL players. And I just would warn anybody not to pull the trigger on it. It's just going to end the same way it happened in Philadelphia. This team is getting pasted.

Kyle Blondin (14:07.284)
night in and night out, there was not even progress that you could see that was shunned from like the Philadelphia Flyers. The NHL is a better place, the Philadelphia Flyers being a contender. So they got to do something. They got to get their head out of their ass and put together, you know, make the right free agent signings, whatever they may be. Maybe they got to make a splash. Maybe they jump in and go for a Mitch Marner. Something to kind of shake things up in Philadelphia because they're going the wrong way.

And the NHL needs those Broad Street bullies back into relevance. And they're simply not relevant in today's game at the moment. So a lot to think about. And if you look at the betting lines here, we're going to look at the pre, this is the preview to the preview of what's going on. Let's see, let's see the Stanley Cup. The Dallas Stars are currently right now heading into, you know, the preview to preview to the preview.

The Dallas Stars are the current betting odds to win the Stanley Cup. Do you buy that? Do you really buy that? Do you buy that to the NHL? You know, at the end of the day, you're going to see Jamie Ben lift the Stanley Cup for the Dallas Stars. I just don't see it. The Dallas Stars are plus 650, Florida 650. You know, they're up, I guess you could say they're both 1A and 1B Stanley Cup favorites, but how do you not clearly look at Florida?

ahead of Dallas in this. And the only reason I guess that is, is because the first round matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who also could make a run, it could be a value play when it comes to making a run at the Stanley Cup, they've reshuffled. They're already down to Tampa Bay's plus 1000. You tell me if they don't get by Tampa Bay and why can't they? With Vasilevsky and that, know, Jake Getzel, they kind of swapped out an aging Steve Stamkos for Jake Getzel. Smart, very smart. That's why this organization is the way they are.

You forget there was not too many years ago where they were making a three, three peep back to the final, two of which resulted in rings. have juice. Kucherov 116 points. think it was Mr. Assist Man. got depth. They got, know, Headman is a rock solid man. The guy in the back end, I think we're forgetting about the Tampa Bay Lightning. They're plus 1000, which I think is value at this moment. Uh, Carolina plus 750 in the three hole. I don't buy it, man. They, what have they?

Kyle Blondin (16:30.766)
They don't score in the playoffs. don't make the run that you expect them. They had this whole debacle earlier in the trade deadline. It's just, Natchez is gone. They could not just get things together. And I just don't see them doing it now. Am I impressed by the goaltending, Freddie Anderson and team there? I don't know. I don't see it. Vegas 850 plus 850. Well, they've been there, done it before. They got the horses.

They got the back end, you you got, uh, you know, you got the, Noel Hannafins of the world and you got, uh, uh, man, I wasn't trained a thought here, but you got pretty much good depth there. Aiden Hill didn't think he'd be the guy that'd be taking teams to a Stanley Cup run or part of a team Canada roster, which we've seen in the four nations. So, uh, he's, he's a big factor there. Washington, Washington plus 1000, no respect for the capitals, no respect for OV.

No respect for what they did in the regular season and winning the Metropolitan. That's very surprising. They're a little banged up right now. Ovi getting a rest. I forgot to mention that today. So he's getting a rest. Chickering a little banged up. So I got to believe these are just resting before they get to the playoffs. Plus 1,000 for the Capitals. Very, very surprising. Edmonton plus 950.

Man, it always comes back to Stuart Skinner, doesn't it? The goaltending of the Edmonton Oilers is always a question to Stuart Skinner. Got the job done for the most part last year in the playoffs, which resulted in when they got good goaltending, they got to the game seven of the Stanley Cup final. Can they not make this run again with McDavid and Dry Cytle? Hopefully healthy McDavid return and no Dry Cytles on the sideline waiting to return probably for the playoffs. Will they make another run again? Why can't they?

I mean, you got the horses, Zach Hyman's of the world, you got depth. Man, I just think there are 950. If you said that last year, I would say that's probably where they need to be, even though they were near the top. So I think they're getting a little disrespected when it comes to Stanley Cup odds, Colorado plus 850. Again, goaltending, wedge wood, those guys in Colorado really got them to the point they are now.

Kyle Blondin (18:52.558)
I don't know I'm not sold. I'm just not sold. You know, Macar, Natchez was obviously a great pickup, but Will they get through Dallas? I don't know. I don't know. And again, when we're talking about Dallas being a plus 650 odds on favorite to win the Stanley Cup and they got to go through Colorado in the first round a little iffy on that and Go down the board the Leafs are plus 1300 belief, know, I just cuz they have won a Stanley Cup since 1967 This doesn't mean they can't be their year I gotta see it to believe it. I want

the Leafs obviously from being Toronto, I am just critical that I got to see, um, the click on the power play when it w know, last two games against Florida and last night against Montreal, there were struggles on the power play. did not look domino dominant and that's their bread and butter. LA Kings down to plus two, uh, 2,100 sends down to 3,800 and doubles down to 4,500 and the devils to the devils, they are in the only series that is locked a hundred percent in right now.

And right now we have the Eastern Conference. Right now the hurricanes are minus 275 over the Devils. Not surprising. Devils are kind of bland. Kind of what have we got? know, no Jack Hughes. He's done and he's their guy. I mean, they've done a great job to make the playoffs, but I see this a pretty quick one and out. Even though I'm not sold in Carolina, I do see Carolina walking over the Devils. Unless you have Jacob Markstrom.

in net for the devil stand on his head, which you absolutely could. I just don't see it. Just don't see it happening boys. Sorry. Ain't gonna happen. It's not gonna happen. Not gonna do it. Not gonna do it. So that's the only series locked in at this very second. Actually, sorry, Dallas and Colorado. So right now it's split. Dallas minus 110, Colorado minus 110. Total games, the consensus is over under five and a half.

I think people are least thinking it's going 6 because we've minus 192. That makes sense. Maybe you do see a team not dominate right off the bat, but maybe you will. let me just jump to... Maybe I forgot that the Kings now are locked into playing the Oilers. Oilers are a minus 140 over the Kings at the moment. Plus 116. Total games in this series look like to be over 5.5 minus 188 again.

Kyle Blondin (21:18.904)
folks believe that this is going six or more. Yeah, the Kings are, yeah, Kings are tough at home. mean, they're gonna, I guess people's thoughts are they're at least gonna squeeze out two at home with their play of late. So a lot of things going on there in the NHL and that's the kind of Stanley Cup odds when it comes to that.

And then we got awards, so early awards for the NHL, and that's the regular season awards. And I think there's been really a decline in the value of where these awards come from.

I think we're more in tune that when we have somebody who wins the heart trophy but fizzles out the first round, it really takes a shine off that award. Right now, if you're looking at the heart trophy, it's not surprising. Conor Hellebott, goaltender for the Winnipeg Jets, the president's trophy, Winnipeg Jets is a heavy minus 135 favorite, followed by Leon Dreisaitl, and pretty much no one else, like Kuturov's plus 7,500. Dreisaitl may...

You know, if he was healthy the last few games, he might have been the guy. And I just don't see it. He had Conor Hellebock in a President's Trophy winning team in the regular season. It's hard to argue that he's not the guy. So I wonder who the Vezina Trophy favorite is for Bess Colton. Yeah, you got it. Conor Hellebock minus 20,000 versus the field. And it's pretty hard to bet against a guy that is up for a heart trophy and favorite to win league MVP.

Kyle Blondin (22:58.286)
Later we'll find out who actually will be up for the Vezna. What was the point? Does anybody really care to put their name as a potential, you know, just a face of a award show knowing you're not going to win this by a long shot? No way. No way at all, And then we got the cons. Here's an interesting one, though. I think you want to keep an eye on this as you get into the playoffs. Con night trophy winner for the NHL's playoff MVP. Favorite.

Connor Hellebuck plus 1500 Man, I mean if the Jets make a run, he's gonna be the guy, but do you see the Jets making a run? Yeah, Connor McDavid a plus 1800. He made a run last year game seven kind of took that con smite away from him Nathan McKinnon plus 1900. There's a guy to do it. He could be the guy Jack Eichel. Yes, but I think that Vegas team is kind of split around, you know production

from the Mark Stones of the world and just a lot of guys that I think may take the shine. Is that word again? Take the shine of a guy like Jack Eichel. Jay Cottonjert plus 2100 for the Dallas Stars goaltender. Really? I'm not sold yet. Barkov for the Panthers. He's too quiet. He's not the guy. Kale McCarr is guy who could do it. But open season on the Con Smythe trophy there. So a lot to think about. So as we get into the preview,

Look at the series, we're break down. What's on the line for a lot of these teams? Where do teams go if they don't get to a spot in the playoffs where they expect to be, aka the Toronto Maple Leafs? Where do the Dallas Stars go? Where do the Tampa Bay Lightning do if they can't make a run? What's the fate of the Montreal Canadiens who have surprisingly jumped into a wild card spot? What do they do going into the off season next year? Do they make a run this year?

They have a knack of being a lower seed and kind of surprising some teams. I don't know if it's going to happen this year, but why not? They seem to do it. I hate Montreal, but they tend to step up. So a lot of things to think about when it comes to the what ifs that are the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. I'm going to throw out something else off topic here. Just reminded me, Twitter I talked to about last week when the Canucks came back and won a hockey game after scoring three goals and under a minute to tie the game up heading into overtime.

Kyle Blondin (25:25.876)
And I tweeted out, and this is why you shouldn't really react to responses on Twitter. So my tweet was, or X, what are the frig you call it, had more to do with the mentality of some coaches in the NHL still, where you have a group of coaches that with down three goals in the third period, pick their spots and pull their goaltender. Because you know what?

They have zero to lose, nothing to lose. They decide to pull the goaltender, see if they can make a game of it. Some do it earlier than others. Some, and you know what's surprising? Some don't do it at all. And my point was, is I said the statement, you'd be surprised how many teams do this. Don't pull the goalie. And then you got 50, 60 likes. And then you got people going, it's happened for the first time. Didn't they just literally say it happened for the first time?

It wasn't my point that three goals were scored under a minute happens all the time. My point was that there are still a section of coaches out there that I shake my head that whatever reason, saving face or whatever it may be, down three goals, regardless of what time is left in the third period, decide not to pull their goaltender for what? Go down four goals? Who gives a shit? So that's my point.

Believe me, if you lived and died and what you got back on Twitter, you'd be in a bad place because it is a cesspool, maybe a necessary cesspool for sports fans to get information and communicate, but there are times it can be a cesspool for sure.

And then beyond this, beyond the NHL action that won't be included in the NFL, sorry, the NHL preview is we've got the NFL draft coming up. The NFL draft is, you know, can change teams trajectories over the next few years. A lot of the, a lot of chatter on the betting side of the draft. A lot of exciting stuff that's going on right now. have the draft.

Kyle Blondin (27:33.646)
That is Cam Ward quarterback is a heavy favorite to go first overall to the Tennessee Titans. Abdul Carter to the Browns second overall. Travis Hunter. Interesting. I had a Colorado. Will he go to the Giants? Will he go like, he, you know, strictly be a defensive back? Will he strictly be a wide receiver? Will he be a full-time wide receiver and defensive back or full-time DB and a part-time receiver or a full-time receiver being a part-time DB? Interesting.

depending on who you talk to. Jodor Sanders quarterback, the second rated quarterback in the NFL draft, at least to some, is looking like he may drop and drop to who? Well, the New Orleans Saints, I believe have the eighth pick. Let's go to a mock draft here. NFL mock draft. Here we go, NFL mock draft. Just curious of what we got here on CBS football.

We have first round, they can see Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter. Then we get to pick number seven, pick number eight, and pick number nine are the New Orleans Saints. And you gotta believe, with Derek Carr coming out this week, well not him, but I guess the team talking about his shoulder has a few, if not a lot of question mark, can he go? Right away, quarterback has a throwing shoulder issue.

and you're thinking he may or may not be ready for the regular season or may miss significant time. Even if he comes back, do you really want to bank your season on that shoulder? Well, here's my thought here is Chordor Sanders, the Saints are in the best position possible right now. If he drops to number nine, right now you have every right to go take him because right now you have no decision to make.

I mean, the decision would have been, I stick with Derek Carr for the next couple years or do I draft a quarterback? Well, I think the decision's been made for you already. Your quarterback right now has a wonky elbow, or sorry, wonky shoulder, and you have a quarterback in the first round that has high potential. Some people are doubting it, but what do you got to lose right now? He's got a lot of snaps in college. You can get in there, maybe make a difference. So I think it's gonna fall the right way for the Saints, unless...

Kyle Blondin (29:56.302)
Now here's where they may get screwed. Eight teams ahead of the Saints know that probably their mouth is watering to make sure that Sanders gets to number nine. So I am sure their phone is ringing on teams that are either threatening to trade out of the first eight picks, excuse me, and kind of hinting at other teams are sniffing around for a quarterback after Cameron Borgles goes off the books.

And I got to believe that they're going to be held to ransom to give up something to ensure that they either can move up or solidify that a team will not draft shorter Sanders until it gets to nine. So be interesting to see what leads up in the next couple of weeks. The Northern Saints have no leverage and they got to sweat it out. Eight picks until number nine is called and Sanders is still there. But I am sure everybody has the Saints GM cell phone number to let them know.

what is going on and what they would like to do to save that quarterback slot. interesting stuff when it comes to the NHL and the upcoming NFL draft and maybe we'll do a live stream for that if we ever get a goddamn working. Anyway, that was the Overrated Experience preview to the preview of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. We look to look at the betting lines leading into the weekend, which Easter weekend, it's also Wrestlemania weekend for you wrestling fans out there. The Overrated Experience.

I gotta believe the pleasure was all yours, but the overrated experience is over and out. Bye bye.