S4E15 - NFL Wk7 Sunday Bets

The Overrated is back for NFL wk 7 with all bets you want to hear.

Over/Unders for each game and Player Props you will find interesting. 

Of course we give you our picks on the winner this weekend. 

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Transcript

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Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome back to the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting Podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blunen and this is week seven of the NFL and we're going to get into all the betting action in front of us on this Sunday into Monday. If you've joined the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting Podcast before, I described this podcast as an in-between sharp expert, you know, try to be, and somewhat square, unemotioned, you know, enjoy the game of the week, you know, maybe ⁓ not always rely on analytics to make my

sports picks, especially football. But that's where you're to get. This is entertainment purposes. Hope you enjoy the ride. You can follow the overrated experience on exit overrated e X P E R two. That's overrated e X P E R two. Let's go. Week seven of the NFL. Like where are we at right now? Like, mean, really things in the NFL are up and down depending on the week. We just came off a Thursday night or with the Cincinnati bangles.

And a quarterback named Joe Flacco, 40 plus years old, steps in less than what? 10 days, actually maybe around nine to 10 days as the Cincinnati Bengals starting quarterback gets a victory, throws over 300 yards on Thursday night to beat Steelers. How do you predict that? Right? And if you don't know, Joe Flacco was a Super Bowl quarterback with the Baltimore Ravens, with the Ravens winning their last Super Bowl.

But really a lot of people are going to remember Joe Flacco for jumping into Cleveland a couple of years ago, dragging them into the playoffs, you know, going into, you know, Cincinnati now and somewhat miracle, you know, getting the win. And I stated stated on the podcast that this was a great move by Cincinnati, nothing to lose based on the quarterback play that we're getting out of Jake Browning. Now, one of the controversies that came up was.

Why would the Bangles trade within their own? Sorry. Why would the Cleveland Browns trade a quarterback within their own division? It was voiced by Mike Tomlin. And here's my thought process here. The Cincinnati Bangles starting quarterback for the next seven, eight, seven, eight years is Joe Burrow. There's no question about it. Okay. Joe Flacco is 40 years old. He's got a limited window. The Cleveland Browns have to assume that they know this season's a write-off.

That's why they traded Joe Flacco. That's why they're going with Dylan Gabriel. That's why he'll probably shoot Shadr or Sanders, get his shot. They are in between. They know they are not going to make a run at the playoffs. They're not a Super Bowl contender. They trade Joe Flacco to the Cincinnati Bengals. You have another team that chalks up a couple more wins, maybe finish nine and seven, maybe seven and nine. I mean, the Cleveland Browns goal here is to drop as low in the draft as possible to find that missing piece, whether it be quarterback or

Another ⁓ early pick to influence next year's team. So what do the Bengals have to lose? It's they're not trading, let's say the Sean Watson, who's been trash, but you know, he would be a team picking him up, for example, that would be their starter for the next three to four years. That's not what they did here. They traded a Joe Flacco to a Cincinnati team that is not going to have Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback next year. I think.

I agree that you don't normally trade within your division, but when it's a short term situation like this one, I think all bets are off and it's totally appropriate and it helped both teams ⁓ this season. So screw the Steelers, right? And then what other news do we have? ⁓ Really? mean, last week's matchups, I couldn't have done worse everybody. So let me preface this by saying this is an entertainment first type of podcast. Believe me.

There's ups and downs here. I went three and 15 three and 15 last week against the spread eight and 15 against for the over under six and 13 on player props not a good week for this guy right here Thought I'd made some decisions that were sound decisions, but things didn't go my way like the bills laying an egg now suddenly two weeks After that loss against New England. They are second and the AFC East and New England is number one Where did who's seen that coming?

You know, we're talking about a New England team that fell flat against the Steelers and, you know, opened up with a loss against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders at a home. And now they're a juggernaut, Drake May. Like, how do you see that coming? We had the Carolina Panthers knock off the Cowboys, you know, and I sat here in the pockets thinking, I'm going to take the Cowboys, but I know, I know it, they're going to, they're going to lay an egg. And they did, their defense is absolute garbage. Terrible.

Offense is fine, know Pickens, Dac, but they can't stop anybody. It's ridiculous terrible Like do you start questioning your defensive coordinator? Eva Fluse who was garbage head coach with the Chicago Bears? Absolutely horrible The Ravens lose another one What else happened that horrible game in London where the Denver Broncos squeaked out a victory over a crappy Jets team and when I say crappy this team's the worst team

32 of 32 teams are garbage and you really got to question yourself is Aaron Glenn your head coach that You know, you're in a position where you're probably gonna be picking top three and I'm being nice. They're gonna be picking number one Must get a quarterback and if you're you anybody else are telling you Justin Fields is an NFL starting quarterback and now even questionable NFL quarterback You're out the lunch. You're done

You should shut down your podcast if it comes out of your mouth that you believe that Justin Fields is a credible NFL quarterback. If you watch that game in London, I have no idea what they were doing. I have no idea why they didn't go to Tyrod Taylor at some point in that ball game because Justin Fields look lost. Like lost. He looked like a guy out there behind center dropping back. They lost his passport. my, where are my keys? Where are my keys? Where's my passport? He held the goddamn ball so long. Absolutely pitiful.

Worst run organization maybe in sports. I know Garrett Wilson's looks like he might not play. He's doubtful probably out So just disgusting from that standpoint ⁓ Tampa Bay juggernaut moving on What other? I Just you know this NFL season so up and down. It's it's insane Anyway, let's get to week seven of the NFL Wilds flown by flown by and we're gonna kick off with the last London game of the

25 season and the Rams ⁓ take off after knocking off Baltimore and heading to Jacksonville, but technically London Jacksonville was the home team has a three point favorite with no puka Nakua who is out with that ankle injury taking on the Jackson Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars who come off a statement win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night and then

I don't know what that was against the Seahawks at home. Couldn't put their offense together, looked terrible, missing extra points, can't convert two point conversions, and I can tell you I needed seven and a half on a teaser, and they screwed me over, losing by eight points, disgusting. It just doesn't make sense. So, I have no faith in Jacksonville right now. The Rams are a better coach, better prepared team.

They will cover the three points. I see this as kind of a tight, low scoring kind of game. 44 and a half take the under and no props to play here. Eagles, 10 days to think about that ass whooping they took in MetLife Stadium against Jackson Dart and Cam Scataboo and the Giants 10 days earlier. They are on the road in Minnesota to take on Carson Wentz.

Former Eagle quarterback, and if you guys don't remember the history of Carson Wentz, he was drafted by, drafted second overall by the Philadelphia Eagles behind Jerichoff. Actually had a first, you know, two decent years in Philadelphia, was on a trajectory. I don't know if it I can't remember if it was the second or third year. You know, he was in the consideration for MVP early in that season until he got hurt. And then was never the same.

And if you look at Carson Wentz play, and he's bounced around, he's a serviceable backup quarterback, kind of like spot starting what the Vikings are doing now. But he holds the ball too long. And that's always been his crux, like his detractor, his weakness, stopping him from taking that leap as a franchise quarterback that was expected of him. So the Eagles coming off that loss, two and a half point favorites in Minnesota.

I can't believe that the Eagles are coming to this game and lay an egg like they did against the Giants. They covered the two and a half. Minnesota's quarterback situation is a problem. Obviously they got the weapons, Justin Jefferson, et cetera. Kevin O'Connell, great head coach, good offense of mine. But I'll take the Eagles two and a half. This game's going over 43 and a half. I think it's going to be bit of a put the ball in the air kind of day for the Philadelphia Eagles. And I think Carson Wentz is going to have to reciprocate like that.

and but the Eagles will get it done by at least a field goal. Jalen Hurts has had two straight games plus 280 yards and they have him down at 206 and a half passing yards. Something's not jiving. Does he have a broken thumb I'm hearing about? They're going to go to the air. This is not going to be a grinding NFC, you know, North ⁓ Matt or NFC East matchup kind of a grind out that, you know, you might expect, but it's going to be.

34-24. I'm going to say Eagles. This game is going over. Jalen Hurts is going to put the ball in the air. Take it. Write it down. Now we have a divisional matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs off a Sunday night win over the Detroit Lions. Hosted Las Vegas Raiders. Raiders look like crap. They can beat Tennessee, but can they take out anybody else? Any other quality team here? They are 12 and a half point underdogs. This being said, I think the Las Vegas Raiders

Always play the Kansas City Chiefs tight and you're going to say, it's different coach, different team. They're a little better than last year's team. think you get the Mason Crosby and on the D side and ⁓ Patrick Mahomes do have a rivalry. I think Crosby comes up with his best games against Kansas City. I think the Raiders do cover this despite Rashid Wallace, I'm Rashid Rice coming back from a suspension.

So that actually will play out into my player prop in one second 45 and a half. I think it's gonna go over I think Gino Smith's gonna go to the air probably not successfully, but I think the Chiefs win by seven or eight not twelve and a half And you got to look at Brock Bowers is doubtful most likely out for the Raiders Jacobi Myers is questionable receiver for the Raiders. They might be hurting there and With Rashid Rice back the focal point is gonna be on him, but I think Travis Kelsey

He's going to be a factor. He's going to have more opportunity. He's actually had two pretty good games receiving yardage. What does it Two... Because over 138 and half in the last two games has been over 78 and 61 yards. I think that's way too low to not go after Travis Kelsey at 38 and a half yards receiving. Now moving on to New Orleans and Chicago. Chicago for real.

The Bears turning this around? Is Ben Johnson the answer as head coach to get Caleb Williams to be a top notch NFL quarterback? You know, moving from potential to actually a star quarterback and eventually superstar? I don't know. But wins help. Coming off a Monday night victory over the Washington Commanders, a lot of that was, you know, mistakes by the commander's turnovers. They host the New Orleans Saints, they really got nothing going.

You know, they stay in ball games, but really do they have much going on in New Orleans? They got one win, but maybe that's what's going to be it for the rest of the year. Four and a half are the Bears. And I got to believe the Bears are to cover. I have faith, full faith in the Chicago Bears to cover this spread, four and a half. The game stays under 46 and a half. I don't see this as a barn burner. Don't you like those terms, barn burner? And ⁓

Here we go. That is it for that. Not much else to say in that Chicago New Orleans game. Miami takes on Cleveland. Two teams going nowhere. Miami's still fooling themselves. The chatter about the trade deadline is starting with Jalen Waddle, et cetera. And let's just bring this up. Let's use our good old chat GBT to ensure we know when the NFL trade deadline is taking place. Let's see chat GBT. NFL.

trade deadline.

Here's a summary of the key info on the NFL 2025 trade deadline. November 4th, a couple weeks away. You really believe as a Miami fan that your Miami Dolphins shouldn't be considering, you know, kind of packing it in this year. You're going nowhere. Tyree kills out. Two was calling out his teammates and pulling it back and apologizing. It's done, guys. It's done.

If you can get something for Jalen Waddle, go ahead and do it. Somebody will pay a price. You need to accept. And Mike McDaniel's head coach is the guy commenting on the future of personnel. That's the last guy you want directing what your future is as far as player movement. Head coach of the Dolphins. His time is done. Time is ticking, Mr. McDaniels. But that being said, I think

the Miami Dolphins get squeeze out of victory in Cleveland. Dylan Gabriel quarterback, rookie quarterback has been okay, but he's not opening eyes here of, you know, any Browns fans thinking, wow, we got the golden child here. There's going to be shouts and don't be surprised even if this game, should or Sanders finds his way into the lineup. You have to see what you have. It should or Sanders, the guy who you won't know until you give him chance.

I mean, it's nice to have a caretaker quarterback like Dylan Gabriel, but at some point you got to see what you have in Shador Sanders because you're going to be in a situation in the NFL draft where you're the one that's going to be looking at picking up a franchise quarterback again and trying to figure things out in Cleveland. So I think Miami gets it done just because they have, you know, for now the talent a little better than Cleveland. got it. We look at Cleveland, Cleveland's defense is one of the best in the NFL. There's no question.

But even a D that goes out there snap after snap believing they can't win, think takes the foot off the gas just enough, you know, to kind of save their bodies for an unwinnable situation. So don't think that this Cleveland defense is going to be the same Cleveland defense that they were at the start of the year or a defense if they were in the thick of a playoff hunt motivated to put their bodies on the line snap after snap if their offense can't do anything and the season's pretty much over.

Let's not pull punches here, it's over. But the overrun is 35 and a half, come on, that's too low. I like the over.

most confusing team now goes into the New York MetLife Stadium to come to jest. It's the Carolina Panthers. They are three and three, is it? Yeah, three and three Carolina Panthers. You know, they are confusing me. I don't know what you got. I'm still not convinced that Bryce Young is like a star quarterback. Rico Dowdell with Chuba Hubbard out the last two games has had 200 plus purpose yards in the last two games with a touchdown. He's been on fire.

Took the Dallas Cowboys to the woodshed, the same team that released them a few years back. Chubba Hubbard's back, so how does he fit into this matchup? But what do we know about the Jets? As we know that the Jets are absolute trash. Absolute dumpster fire, trash, know, throw them out in the curb. That, you know, part of the week, ⁓ you take out your recycling, you take out your compost, that's where the New York Jets find themselves on a daily basis.

They're 24-7 garbage and rotting. Okay. Let's just see something. I want to see, I didn't even take a sniff at any of the, at the props here, but I want to look at what is Justin Fields passing yards expectation. What? God damn it. Come on. I'm using FanDuel by the way. Just note that's where the odds are coming from. can't, you know, promote more, even though I'm not doing it at the moment. Use multiple books, please, to get the best young.

The fact that you're starting a quarterback in Justin Fields where the expectations of the yardage is 167 and a half yards. How do you have a quarterback that the world is saying that minus 114 both ways over under, will he achieve over 167 and a half passing yards?

That is disgusting. Disgusting. They're going to say that Justin Fields has at best, and it's plus, over 17 and a half ⁓ completions. Plus 110. The odds are minus 145 heavily that he's going to go under 17 and a half past completions. We're most likely chasing. How are you not putting Tyrod Taylor in?

This is not an early Justin Fields Bear situation where you drafted him and you gotta kinda play it out. This is not a Pittsburgh Steelers situation where they made the play to put him on the bench in favor of Russell Wilson. What are you doing in New York? What are you doing? You're trash, that's what you're doing. I'll take the Panthers one and a half but...

I mean guys, like, Panthers not gonna be mortgage worthy out of placing a bet on them. You don't know what's gonna happen. The Jets could very well win this game. The Carolina Panthers are not the solid pick. I think they'll win, but I'm not banking anything. This is kind of because I'm doing a podcast and have to take a side. I'll take the Carolina Panthers. I'll take this game over 41 and a half. I just think that Panthers get into shitshow kind of games.

I don't think there's nothing great about their D or their offense, but enough to push this game over 41 and a half. All right. New England. Everybody loves New England, right? Four and two lead the AOC East, trying to put Buffalo in the rear of your mirror. They take on the Tennessee Titans. Buffalo has the week off, the bye week. So watch out that they could take a two game lead, meaning that they're a game up.

but they have the head to head matchup against Buffalo, which could put them in the driver's seat. this is, didn't see this coming by week seven, potentially going into week eight. New England six and half point favorites going into Tennessee. Tennessee just ugly. Callahan fired head coach. Mike McCoy coming in as an interim head coach. Things are not looking well in Tennessee. Cam Ward, you know, you got your franchise quarterback that you draft.

and you're already dumping coaches, you don't have the right program, not good. Over under 42 and a half, I'm gonna say under. ⁓ New England probably wins 27-7. That's it, this game stays under, nothing more. Look out, Stefan Diggs, questionable. We'll probably go, but he's listed as questionable. But maybe be a factor when you're looking at props for that game.

Spicy spicy matchup here. We have the Indianapolis Colts in the four o'clock window taking on the LA Chargers and SoFi Stadium Colts coming off a victory over Arizona Arizona, which you call be percent you'll be starting again as we get to that game will be an interesting matchup here looking at Yeah looking at ⁓ indie into LAC The Chargers took care of the Miami Dolphins. It wasn't easy, but the offensive guns are out

Running game, Herb, Noah Murray, Hampton for the Chargers. Indy right now, probably the value play, right? know, they're either plus one and a half, but something tells me that Indy's D that has not been solid is gonna be the factor here. And because the Chargers are at home, I'm take the Chargers one and a half. ⁓ Over 48 and a half, this might be a bit of a back and forth. Josh Downs of the Colts is out wide receiver.

Just two player props here in this game Even though I believe the Chargers at the end of the day will win this game by two or more points I do think there's gonna be points scored and I believe Jonathan Taylor at 89 and a half rushing yards He's the best running back in football. You could argue outside of maybe Bijon by 89 and a half Give me Jonathan Taylor all day at minus 114 Tyler Warner first round pick at a Penn State tight end for the Colts

Over five and a half receptions. really only, you know, took six receptions last week and that went against the Colts. And seven receptions in game one that they had against the Dolphins, kind of below that in between. But something tells me I'm not gonna make the same mistake I did a couple weeks back with Dallas Goddard. Actually, it was last week on the Thursday night. You gotta look at, this is gonna be points up and Daniel Jones is gonna look for Tyler Warner in a shootout that's gonna happen at four or five on Sunday.

Giants head into Denver ⁓ Jackson dart camp scataboo seven-head seven point underdogs. Mean, I think we've seen you know, the better Giants are in a better situation having Jackson dart versus Russell Wilson ⁓ But I think you know at some point you got to look at the reality of the situation Jackson dart has not established himself as a thrower of the football yet in the NFL. He's relied a lot

on 50, 60 yards rushing a game and that's not going to happen in Denver. It's not. I've got to believe that Sean Payton, ⁓ the game plan, Vance Joseph, defensive coordinator for the Broncos, is going to be, show me what you got. Show me what you got. Show me Jackson Dart that you can put the ball in the air and throw it to Patrick Stretting. Go ahead. Throw it his way. Please, let's see what happens.

So I do believe the Broncos will win this handily. No problem, seven points. Give me the Broncos all day at home. And this game over 40 and a half, it's going to be a 24-6 kind of game. So let's go under 40 and a half. Now we've got a spicy matchup. The Washington commander's coming off a loss on Monday against the Bears at home. Head into Dallas coming off loss against Carolina. I have no idea what the Cowboys are, what we'll see here. I do believe we'll get a shootout. 54 and a half points is high, but with the...

Dallas can't stop anything. Trayvon digs cornerback out. Apparently got a concussion at home. I have no idea how you put yourself in that scenario, but he did. He's out. And that can't help an already garbage D for Dallas. So over 54 and a half. The commanders are a point and a half underdaw. I don't see it. Give me the commanders to win this one. Yes, the Cowboys get CD Lambach and Turpin for Dak Prescott, but.

I think Jane Daniels is better. think the speed of which the commanders play at is not going to be good for the Cowboys. It will be a shootout. Jane Daniels stole us over 232.5 yards. Because it's a shootout, he's going to put the ball in the air. I think it's going to be comfortable 240, 250 at most. What else we got? The Deebo is questionable. McLaren's out. Wide receiver for the commanders.

Not good there. We got Green Bay heading into Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Jacoby Bursette, as I stated earlier, is going to start a second consecutive game for the Cardinals. Looked pretty damn good against the card of Colts. Had the team in moving the ball ⁓ for the majority of that game. And I think he'll keep this game close. Give me the six and a half. Give me the plus six and a half based on Jacoby Bursette being a safe quarterback.

⁓ 44.5 over. I think the Packers win, I think it's more about a four five point game. Just watch out, Jacoby Josh Jacobs is questionable, probably will play. Danny McManus is questionable for kicking for the Cowboys. And there's a shot that Kyler Murray can play for the Cardinals with that foot injury, but it looks like Jacoby Berset is the guy. No props on that one. Sunday nighter, not a bad one. Atlanta takes on the San Francisco 49ers.

This Atlanta team is going pretty good right now. Can't believe it's the same Atlanta team that screwed me over with a 30-0 loss in Carolina. Now they're knocking off teams like the Bills. It doesn't make sense, the NFL. B. John Robinson's on fire. And the 49ers are still a point and a half favorite. Noel Frank, Fred Warren, broke his ankle. That's a big blow to the 49er defense. George Kittle looks like he might return. Matt Jones still quarterbacking the 49ers.

⁓ Interesting matchup. I think it's gonna go under 52 and a half and I'm take the 49ers on here because they're smarter than the Falcons I'm sorry Don't get overhyped on the Atlanta Falcons The 49ers are an upper echelon team in my mind where they game plan Effectively both sides of the ball to put themselves in a position to win It's not like Tampa Bay had that in control all of last week 49ers could have well pulled that out in Tampa Bay

I don't think Atlanta's on the tier of Tampa Bay or the 49ers. Give me 49ers all day on this one. is a, telling you right now, they're not frauds. They're not frauds, the Atlanta Falcons, but they're, shiesters, right? Don't take what you've seen against Buffalo. Buffalo has flaws that they'll probably have to go to the dry blueprints or whatever the backs of the drawing table in their off week and come back with a different approach. Don't let that fool's gold Atlanta Falcons team get to you. This should be a,

Three and a half point favorite San Francisco 49ers jump on it now Trust me the 49ers will take this all day four more points better than the Falcons Monday nighter we got a double dip as well again the red hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers are five and a half point underdogs heading into Detroit That's kind of a disrespectful isn't it Tampa Bay five and a half point underdogs at five and one this team has one loss against the Super Bowl champion Eagles

Detroit coming off against Kansas City, a loss. I'm not kidding. Detroit's gonna be there at the end. It should be based on the team they've put together. About to be five and a half point favorites over Tampa Bay, the way Tampa's playing. Insult, insult, insult. Baker, Mayfield is red hot right now. They've traditionally played the Lions pretty close. And I gotta believe that whether the Lions win, which they possibly can, may win, it's not gonna be by five and a half. Give me the Buccaneers to cover that five and a half.

And then 52 and a half, yeah, shoot out. Lions, Fort Downs, Baker Mayfield. It's gonna be a shit show out there. Gimmie Gibbs, rushing yards running back for the Detroit Lions over 60 and a half. He'll be a factor and he'll be a factor on the ground. Couple big runs for him. Last but not least, but it's actually the least, not really a game that you're gonna necessarily stay up for, is going to be the Houston-Seattle game. Houston travels to Seattle.

Houston's kind of been on a run, right? Houston's actually a couple victories in a row. Let's see, where's this game? It's in Seattle, but what time's it started out again? It's actually 10 o'clock. That's bullshit. So enjoy it, but it's not going to be what you think. think the Houston Texans actually win this game. Seattle's getting all the praise after they're looking good. Everybody's got them up in their rankings, but I for sure don't see them as consistent team.

Two and three are the Houston Texans. They'll get back even here. At least cover the three points that they're dogs. Over 41 and a half, I think there'd be some points scored here. The Houston Texans seem to be getting it together. C.J. Stroud's looked a little better. So that's it. Over 41 and a half, Houston covers the three. That is all the overrated experience has today. I wish you the best tomorrow. I wish you the best Monday.

The pleasure's all up in yours, the overrated experience is over and out. Bye bye.